Lukas Dragicevic, selected No. 57 overall by the Seattle Kraken, is a 6-foot-1, right-handed offense-first defenseman who plays in Washington State already, with the Tri-City Americans in the WHL.
Instant reaction
This pick made so much sense. A perfect combination of need (right-handed defense, transition play, power-play production, and offense from the blue line) with value in the late second round (Dragicevic was ranked as a mid-first-round pick in our data and analytics ranking).
It was well documented going into the draft that the Kraken were lacking in depth on the right side of their blue line. The team had invested just one pick in each of their first two drafts on the position and neither player has top-of-the-lineup ceiling. 2022 third-round pick Ty Nelson has shown scoring touch at the junior level, but some questions about his projection to the NHL persist due to his style of offensive play and 5-foot-10 frame. 2021 fourth-round pick Ville Ottavainen is a towering defense-first blueliner who has not done much in the way of scoring during his time in the top Finnish league, Liiga, but is scheduled to join the Coachella Valley Firebirds this season.
Enter Lukas Dragicevic. Dragicevic has been on my radar for months because his scoring profile befitted a first-round pick. Setting aside U.S. and Canadian high school players, no right-handed defenseman eligible for the draft for the first time this season scored more in total points (79) or on a per-game basis (1.07 points per game). Among all defensemen, only QMJHL lefty Etienne Morin scored at a slightly higher rate, and, when accounting for the relative strength of those two major junior leagues, there is an argument to be made Dragicevic’s production was more impressive.
In other words, to quote to the Elite Prospects Draft Guide: “Lukas Dragicevic is the best offensive defenseman in this year’s draft.” My NHLe calculation, which primarily relied on point production and incorporated only minor adjustments for age and height, pegged Dragicevic as the eighth-best player in the entire draft. And the consensus in the analytics community was not far behind, placing the Tri-City blueliner as the 19th overall prospect.
Before the draft, I was tempted to project Dragicevic as a first-round fit for the Kraken but resisted due to the potential high-end value of first-round forwards. As I explained then: “My hesitation on targeting Dragicevic (or Gulyayev) in the first round relates back to positional value. High-end forwards are hard to find and typically deliver the most value in the game. Setting aside a few truly transcendent players, a team is capping its upside by drafting on defense in the first round. Add in the significant probability that Dragicevic settles in as a bottom-four guy and a bit of a defensive liability, and I can see the arguments against using a first-round pick on the player.”
As a team with a heavy focus on these types of analytics, it would not be surprising if the Kraken have reached a similar conclusion. Seattle snagged three forwards at 20, 50, and 52. Then, with Dragicevic still available at 57, it was a no-brainer. He was a perfect fit for the Kraken at No. 57 and brings the high ceiling the Kraken have lacked amongst their right-handed defensemen.
Lukas Dragicevic, the #2023NHLDraft's top offensive blue-liner, led Tri-City in:
Dragicevic was ranked at No. 33 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Dragicevic’s highest ranking was from McKeen’s, which placed him at No. 20 overall. Bob McKenzie, often a good indicator of sentiment inside the league, had him ranked at No. 35 overall. Dragicevic being available at No. 57 was likely a surprise to Seattle and a welcome one.
Strengths: “Dragicevic possesses elusive footwork and slick hands, which he can use in tandem to dance around and embarrass anyone who tries to recklessly pressure him. He has an absolute bomb of a slap shot that he loves to uncork and lean in to, but he also has a hard, accurate wrist shot that he can use to try beating a goalie clean or send in for a deflection. As good as he is on the attacking line, he’s also not shy about getting closer to the net to generate offense, whether that’s by driving the puck himself deep along the wall or into in high danger, or by moving forward with a burst of quickness to get open for a bang-bang play or trying to sneak in undetected. Unsurprisingly, he’s a monster on the power play and has what it takes to quarterback a top unit in the NHL one day. He’s also a major factor at driving the play up the ice and into the offensive zone, keeping his head up and controlling the puck at full flight as he weaves through traffic.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Weaknesses: “Dragicevic’s game has some real warts, highlighted most notably by, as one scout aptly describe to me, ‘clunky feet.’ He gives too much in his gaps, likely to compensate for his footwork and also his processing speed (he’s just doesn’t pick up on when to close gaps in real time fast enough). He lacks foot speed going in straight lines forwards and backwards, where his stride can look rushed and heavy, and his pivots are a real issue.” – Scott Wheeler of The Athletic
Where can I find more information?
Corey Pronman of The Athletic (link) ($$) ranked Dragicevic No. 31 overall
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (link) ($$) ranked Dragicevic No. 36 overall
Chris Peters of FloHockey (link) ranked Dragicevic No. 34 overall
Following a theme of this draft, Dragicevic is not without risk in his profile – he’s relatively new to his position, struggled with rush defense, and wasn’t particularly effective as an in-zone defender either. As Mckeen’s notes: “The sheer range of possibility for how his career goes is immense from one end to the other. It’s entirely possible that he ends up as one of the 10 best players to come from this class, yet at the same time, it also wouldn’t be particularly surprising if his development went sideways, and he never ended up sniffing the NHL.”
Dragicevic needs to develop significantly on the defensive side and at least some scouts suggest he needs to clean up aspects of his skating. How that goes will determine his future. If the arrow points up in those areas, first-pair potential is not out of the question, particularly if matched with a stronger defensive partner. With moderate progress, he’s a bottom-four type. With little or no progress, he may never become an NHL regular. Still, he’s a terrific bet at pick No. 57 – a steal, in fact.
Oscar Fisker Molgaard, selected No. 52 overall by the Seattle Kraken, is a 6-foot-0 center who made it to the SHL, one of the top professional leagues in the world, as a 17-year-old.
Quick thoughts on the pick
Initially, this pick struck me as a lower-upside selection for Seattle after placing bets on offense-first wingers with their first two picks in Eduard Sale and Carson Rehkopf. Still slight in frame at this point, Oscar Fisker Molgaard plays the game of a bigger, more mature player. He forechecks hard, defends, and makes intelligent plays all over the ice. Playing a bottom-of-the-lineup role as a teenager in the highly competitive SHL, he did not allow the play to tip in the favor of opponents, registering a +6 rating while he was on the ice.
That said, as I dug in on him, I started to feel there may be a bit more upside here than I originally thought. Fisker Molgaard was No. 52 overall in our analytics ranking, valued highly by analysts tracking microdata (like Scouching) more so than primarily scoring-based models (like the NHLe I ran). But there is something notable about his scoring: Steven Ellis of Daily Faceoff notes Fisker Molgaard’s point output ranks among the top ten over the last ten years for an 18-year-old in the SHL. It’s easy to dismiss Fisker Molgaard’s seven points in 41 SHL games, but it is rare to get as far as he got as young as he did.
In the end, there may be a path to a bottom-six role sooner rather than later for him. And if that is what happens, it is a tremendous pick.
Oscar Fisker Molgaard player profile
Center | HNV71 (SHL) | Age: 18 | Height: 5’11.75″ | Weight: 166 lbs | Left shot
Fisker Molgaard was ranked at No. 38 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Fisker Molgaard’s highest ranking was No. 23 by Dobber Prospects. Tony Ferrari of The Hockey News (24), Elite Prospects (28), and Smaht Scouting (28) also ranked him like a borderline first-round prospect. Bob McKenzie, often a good indicator of sentiment inside the league, had him ranked right in the range he was ultimately drafted, at No. 51 overall.
How does he look on the ice?
What are scouts saying?
“His forte in an offensive sense [is] carrying and distribution of pucks. He’s been able to adjust to the need for quicker pass releases at higher levels while being a go-to puck marcher and distributor at lower levels. There’s plenty of feistiness in his game and he’s ready to go where it hurts to make plays and retrieve pucks . . . .” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
“Fisker Mølgaard is a highly intelligent, hardworking center who displays an advanced understanding of inside play both offensively and defensively. He’s a strong skater and is constantly in motion, scanning and surveying the ice in front of him. Despite his slight frame, he’s capable of winning puck battles vs. players far bigger and heavier than he is due to his high compete level and tenacity. Though the tools and flashes of playmaking are apparent and intriguing, it’s unclear just how much point production there will be at the NHL. The playmaking can be inconsistent and he doesn’t boast an NHL calibre shot to this point.” – Smaht Scouting
“He’s an exceptionally strong defensive player, with his typical movements – whether it be stick checks, positioning, etc. – looking so simple, yet so effective. Few prospects in this draft understand the nuance of positionally sound defensive play like Mølgaard does. . . . Mølgaard can play on the penalty kill and the power play, but he’s especially effective when his team’s down a man. He keeps it simple, but you’ll be impressed in how he takes away space. And taking that space away is one of his trademarks: he’s a dominant small-area gamer. One that will just get in the way, win battles and set his team up for a scoring chance.” – Steven Ellis
Where can I find more information?
Corey Pronman of The Athletic (link) ($$) ranked Fisker Molgaard No. 39 overall
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (link) ($$) ranked Fisker Molgaard No. 47 overall
Chris Peters of FloHockey (link) ranked Fisker Molgaard No. 44 overall
Fisker Molgaard joins Sale as Kraken draft picks who have already reached elite professional leagues in their draft seasons. This is a good indication that they both bring a professional-level skillset and may be closer to debuting with the NHL club than comparable junior players. On the other hand, both prospects may have been hampered a bit in their draft year by limited roles. Think about how Shane Wright skated in a fourth-line role with Coachella Valley. He may “look good” in a given game, but he had limited opportunities to impact game or (more importantly) develop his skills because of his role.
Sale seems destined for the OHL (or AHL) next season. Fisker Molgaard’s future is less certain. Ideally, he’d get a chance to take on a featured offensive role to see if there is more upside in that portion of his game, but that is unlikely to come in the SHL. If he follows a typical European arc of playing one more year in his current league before jumping to the AHL, it will likely be on a bottom-six path, and we may be left with questions about whether he brings enough offense to be a long-term NHL player.
Carson Rehkopf, selected No. 50 overall by the Seattle Kraken, is a 6-foot-2 shot-first, scoring winger. He played with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL this season.
Quick thoughts on the pick
One day after the Kraken invested in a high-upside left-shot winger with a safe floor of point production, drafting Eduard Sale with pick No. 20, the team returned to the same script with their first pick in the second round, tabbing Rehkopf at No. 50. The Elite Prospects team puts it this way: “Rehkopf is one of the most polarizing players available from the OHL this year. His strong athletic profile makes him a very intriguing player to scouts, but many are concerned by the varying engagement levels.” We heard similar things about Sale. That said, Rehkopf produced well enough to justify a pick in this range, checking in at No. 39 overall in our consensus analytics ranking. If there’s more production in the tank with increased consistency, this will start to look like a strong value pick in the years ahead.
Carson Rehkopf player profile
Left wing | Kichener Rangers (OHL) | Age: 18 | Height: 6’2.5″ | Weight: 195 lbs | Left shot
Rehkopf was ranked at No. 48 on theSound Of Hockey Big Board. His highest ranking was No. 36 by both DraftPro and Peter Barachinni of The Hockey News. He was a consensus second rounder in the range of Seattle’s selection.
How does he look on the ice?
What are scouts saying?
“Rehkopf’s NHL argument is all about his toolkit and less about his production. He has a rare combination of speed, skill and size. When you see a 6-foot-2 forward jet up the ice and beat guys one-on-one like Rehkopf can, it’s easy to dream on what he will be in the NHL. He’s a shot threat from range, often beating goalies from the dots. While he can score from outside, I’d like to see more interior attacks from Rehkopf, especially given his frame. He has playmaking in his game, as I’ve seen Rehkopf execute high-difficulty passes and make plays, but that part of his game needs to be more consistent.” – Corey Pronman of The Athletic
Where can I find more information?
Corey Pronman of The Athletic (link) ($$) ranked Rehkopf No. 39 overall
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (link) ($$) ranked Rehkopf No. 47 overall
Chris Peters of FloHockey (link) ranked Rehkopf No. 44 overall
Brock Otten (McKeen’s) (link) goes in depth with a video scouting report on Rehkopf
Last thoughts
Seattle built a base of solid prospects in the 2022 draft, but if there was a criticism of the players in the system, it was that there weren’t many players with top-of-the-lineup ceiling beyond Shane Wright. Through two picks in 2023, the Seattle Kraken seem to have made high-end tools a priority. Sale has top-line potential, and Rehkopf could blossom into a top-six forward too. That said, there is a bit of risk in both of their profiles that they may not have the compete level or hockey sense to translate to the next level. It will be fascinating to follow them both as they (likely) go up against each other in the Ontario Hockey League next year.
Eduard Sale (pronounced SHAH-lay), selected No. 20 overall by the Seattle Kraken, is a 6-foot-2 left-shot winger. He played at the professional level this season in perhaps the third-best league in the world, Czechia’s Extraliga, for HC Kometa Brno.
Quick thoughts on the pick
On the one hand, this is a swing on talent. The Elite Prospects team had this to say on Sale: “[On] sheer talent alone, Sale is a no-brainer top-10 pick. Perhaps even higher.” On the other hand, this isn’t an example of drafting an unproductive player. To the contrary, he checked in at No. 21 overall in the Sound Of Hockey consensus analytics ranking. My NHLe calculation pegged him as the 25th best prospect in the draft.
Eduard Sale player profile
Left Wing | HC Kometa Brno (Extraliga) | Age: 18 | Height: 6’1.75″ | Weight: 175 lbs | Left shot
Sale has been closely scrutinized, playing at a top professional level in Czechia from a very young age. But this experience makes him one of the more pro-ready prospects in the draft. It’s also possible he could come to North America this season to play in the OHL for the Barrie Colts, according to Jeff Marek.
Expect Seattle first round pick Eduard Sale to play with the OHL’s Barrie Colts next season.
Alternatively, he could be a candidate to follow in the footsteps of countryman David Jiricek and play in the AHL immediately. If so, there would be yet more reason to fire up AHL.tv and watch the Coachella Valley Firebirds again next year.
What does the Big Board say?
At the time the Kraken drafted, Sale was the second-highest ranked remaining player on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board at No. 17 overall. Only Gabe Perreault was ranked higher at No. 14. There were some highly productive North American players that were still on the board at the time of the Kraken’s pick (Perreault, Quinton Musty, and Andrew Cristall) that I thought would likely be strong considerations, but of those players only Musty’s physical tools compare with Sale’s. Sale’s highest ranking was No. 7 overall by Craig Button of TSN.
How does he look on the ice?
What are scouts saying?
Strengths: “His movement stands out as a top trait, stemming from technically sound skating mechanics. He’s able to accelerate quite quickly, reaching his top speed effortlessly. He might just be one of the fastest prospects in the draft. It’s not just his straight-line skating either. He has strong edges that he utilizes to change direction quickly and suddenly, making him hard to predict as he attacks in the offensive zone. . . . His puckhandling is nearly as good as his skating . . . . He’s able to head into traffic with the puck or without and come out with it with relative ease. He also regularly jumps into board battles and isn’t afraid to get physical in his play. He plays without any lack of confidence, sometimes even overconfident as he cheats to the offensive side of the puck. He has a strong shot but does need to work on his accuracy at times. He’s just as good at dishing it out though, showing off great vision as he moves the puck around the offensive end. . . . What might just be Sale’s most intriguing attribute though is his ability to play in all situations. He can be depended on during the penalty kill, and more than contributes at even strength and on the power play. He can play up and down the lineup and be relied on in the dying minutes of a game.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Weaknesses: “Where he does need to focus is his consistency, as he can tend to lack urgency or off-puck commitment depending on the scoreboard. When he needs to be, he’s on, but this needs to be the case every time he hits the ice.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Where can I find more information?
Corey Pronman of The Athletic (link) ($$): ranked Sale No. 24 overall
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (link) ($$): ranked Sale No. 14 overall
Chris Peters of FloHockey (link): ranked Sale No. 21 overall
There are a lot of things working in favor of this pick. Sale is a tall, toolsy player with good speed and skating skill. And beyond that his data profile already supports his status as a first-round pick. Add to that the fact that he has performed at an adequate level in a high-level professional league already as an 18-year-old, and there are many different ways to look at Sale and like the pick.
Kraken general manager Ron Francis has often said he looks to his scouts and analytics department to support each other before making a move. This looks like a pick where both sides of the front office were able to find common ground, and with director of amateur scouting Robert Kron having plenty of connections in his native Czechia, he undoubtedly had plenty of information about Sale.
It has been a while since we have done a round of Musings, but with a crazy week ahead across the league, I thought it was time I dusted off the template and shared some thoughts before we head into the NHL Entry Draft and then free agency.
Managing expectations of NHL Entry Draft prospects
The first round of the NHL Entry Draft kicks off Wednesday as 32 of the best draft-eligible hockey players in the world will hear their names called in Nashville. Rounds 2-7 will be Thursday starting at 8 a.m. Pacific. For the players that get selected, it is a remarkable accomplishment, even if a lot of them might not ever suit up for an NHL team. For those players that do eventually make it, there is still a long road ahead. To help manage everyone’s expectations, here is a quick refresher on the outlook of an NHL prospect.
First round of the NHL Entry Draft
The first round of the NHL Entry Draft is as close to a sure thing as it comes. 98 percent of NHL skaters drafted in the first round between 2010 and 2018 have played at least one NHL game and 81 percent of the first rounders played at least 100 games in the NHL.
Note that this visual excludes goalies drafted. Goalies are unique in terms of development time, and games played can be misleading since goalies can be in the NHL but not get credit for an official game played if they are serving as the backup.
Timing of first-round draft picks
When players make it to the NHL is another core component of setting expectations. Where a skater is drafted in the first round will correlate with the expected games played by season, but on the aggregate, the peak number of games played by a first-round draft pick will be around his sixth season after being drafted.
Assuming no trades that impact the Kraken’s first pick of the NHL Entry Draft, they will select 20th overall Wednesday. That means we should not expect Seattle’s first-round pick to play more than 25 games in the NHL until the 2025-26 season.
Other themes of the NHL entry draft
One of the biggest stories of the draft will be who drafts the Russian phenom, Matvei Michkov. There was a time when I remember people debating who would go No. 1, Michkov or Connor Bedard, but the world has changed since then. Michkov faced adversity and is proving to be enigmatic. Teams will need to evaluate the risk they are willing to take on by drafting Michkov, as there do seem to be a lot of questions about when he might make it to North America. Most prognosticators seem to think he doesn’t slip past eighth overall.
On that note, here is a look at the number of Russians drafted by team and round over the last three NHL Entry Drafts.
They released the Kraken… schedule
In case you missed it, the Kraken released their 2023-24 schedule. They will open in Vegas on Oct. 10, which will be the night the Golden Knights raise their Stanley Cup Championship banner. The home opener will be Oct. 17 against the Colorado Avalanche. The Kraken have the fewest back-to-back games in the league next season, which should be an advantage. During the 2022-23 season, the Kraken were 8-5-3 in the second game of a back-to-back scenario, though, so maybe this is a bad thing.
The Kraken will travel 49,572 miles this coming season which is 5,000 more miles than last season. 49,572 is fourth most behind Edmonton (53,902), Winnipeg (53,008), and Calgary (50,013).
Other Kraken Musings
The Kraken prospect pool is rather shallow at defense. We all like Ty Nelson (2022 third round) but of the drafted players, Ryker Evans (2021 second round) appears to be the only lock to eventually make the NHL.
On that note, if either of the Swedish defensemen of Tom Willander or Axel Sandin-Pellikka slip to the Kraken at No. 20, either of them will be hard to pass up.
The Kraken have never drafted a Swedish hockey play in the NHL Entry Draft.
It was fun to start entering Kraken game dates in my calendar this week. I have also started to circle a few away games on the schedule.
I wonder how many fans will be booing Cale Makar on opening night?
The Kraken have just three regular-season home games in October and a whopping 10 home games in March.
One of the rumored players on the trade block is Samuel Girard from the Colorado Avalanche. I would love to see Ron Francis pull another Oliver Bjorkstrand-like trade for Girard.
The Kraken re-signed defenseman Gustav Olofsson this week to a two-year, two-way deal for a league minimum of $775k AAV. Olofsson was steady for the few games when he got called up this season, but what I remember about him is his interaction with the fans when they were playing one of their AHL games at the Kraken Community Iceplex. He made a point to wave to kids on the glass and give fist bumps. Things you just love to see.
NHL clubs have until Friday to submit qualifying offers to their pending restricted free agents. We have mentioned it multiple times, but we do not anticipate Daniel Sprong receiving a qualifying offer. Essentially, he played too well and priced himself out of re-signing with Kraken.
Morgan Geekie is the interesting pending RFA. We saw how shrewd Ron Francis can be when he did not qualify Ryan Donato and Sprong last season, only to re-sign them in free agency later in the summer. Could he do something similar with Geekie? If Geekie is not qualified, I do not see him coming back to Seattle.
There are seven days where the Kraken, Silvertips, and Thunderbirds are all playing home games.
The busy week ahead
It is going to be a busy week, so to help you (and myself) keep it all straight, here is the rundown.
6/28 – First Round of the NHL Entry Draft (ESPN)
6/29 – Rounds two through seven of the NHL Entry Draft (NHL Network)
6/30 – Qualifying offers due for all pending restricted free agents, buyout period ends
7/1 – NHL free agency period opens
7/1 – Seattle Kraken development camp starts
7/2 – Seattle Kraken development camp open to the public
7/5 – Seattle Kraken development camp 3-on-3 scrimmage open to the public
There is a lot going on right now, and we surely missed a few topics, but if there are any questions, thoughts, or areas you would like me to explore, leave a note in the comments section. Thank you for reading. Enjoy the draft, free agency, and development camp.
It’s draft week, and that means a lot of content here at Sound Of Hockey. John Barr and Darren Brown will be talking about the draft on this week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast. On the website, check out:
The Sound Of Hockey Big Board, compiling rankings and other data for 6000+ draft eligible skaters;
Today, we mock draft. I will presume that players will come off the board in the order predicted by the Big Board. For example, if a player is slotted at No. 47 on the Big Board, I treat that player as unavailable to the Kraken at pick No. 50. In highlighting potential “alternative” picks, I’ll mention a few players who could be in range if they “fall” to Seattle’s pick. I won’t “predict” any trades, but I’ll mention a few that would be fun along the way.
Age: 17 | Height: 6’1.5” | Weight: 200 | Left shot | 27 goals and 55 assists in 57 games played
Scout’s view: “Musty has an excellent shot from range, distributes quite well off of the rush and does a great job of creating space for himself. His ability to create consistently at 5v5 is a credit to how well he handles pressure. Musty will take advantage of tight lanes when looking to thread the needle and will look to complete drop passes when hitting a wall.” – Josh Tessler
Notes: Musty would check a lot of boxes for the Kraken. His point production stacks up against past high draft picks from the OHL. He has the size, shot, and playmaking ability to thrive in the top half of an NHL lineup. He is one of the youngest players in the draft. And, he happens to play a position (left wing) at which the Kraken have not yet invested much draft capital.
Some scouts faulted his engagement and defense, though others reported that these aspects of his game improved as his draft season progressed. His skating may be the biggest question mark, but his physical profile and skill creates an avenue to a bottom-six role in the NHL even if the skating doesn’t come around.
How about a few alternatives? LW Samuel Honzek (Big Board rank: 19 | Analytics rank: 20) is an impressive athlete. LW Andrew Cristall (Big Board rank: 25 | Analytics rank: 8) is intriguing for his offensive potential if Kraken scouts are sold on his skating and overall game.
What if the draft were 10% more fun? Let’s trade picks 20, 52, and 84 to the Pittsburgh Penguins for pick No. 14 and draft LW Zach Benson (Big Board rank: 6 | Analytics rank: 6) if he falls due to size concerns.
Age: 18 | Height: 5’11.75” | Weight: 190 | Right shot | 6 goals and 55 assists in 77 games played
Scout’s view: “The four way mobility (especially his edgework and lateral quickness) is excellent . . . . As a puck mover, Brzustewicz stands out because of his vision and decision making. Poised under pressure, he always seems to make the correct play with the puck on his stick. . . . I’m a little leary of the projection, but he passed the eye test almost every night in the second half showing great progression.” – Brock Otten
Notes: Scouts describe a well-rounded profile that was trending up toward the end of the 2022-23 season. Scouting critiques point to his underlying athleticism and engagement level, but his skating skill seems solid enough for him to project as solid in the transition game. While he may not have a dynamic element that makes a top-of-the-lineup projection likely, he checks a lot of boxes for Seattle. He plays a position of thin depth in the organization (right defense), and his scoring suggests he is a solid value in the mid-second round.
How about a few alternatives? Many scouts prefer RD Beau Akey (Big Board rank: 47 | Analytics rank: 43). LD Luca Cagnoni (Big Board rank: 49 | Analytics rank: 23) is an undersized but talented player who could pay dividends if he can survive defensively at the NHL level. LD Etienne Morin (Big Board rank: 52 | Analytics rank: 57) was highly productive in the QMJHL. In reality, pick No. 50 may be a selection where Seattle tries to catch a player, likely a forward, who “falls.” I’ll highlight a few of these as alternatives to pick No. 52.
What if the draft were 10% more fun? Let’s trade picks 50 and 52 to Chicago for pick 35 and draft RD Lukas Dragicevic (Big Board Rank: 33 | Analytics Rank: 19), a blueliner with as much offensive upside as any in the draft.
Age: 18 | Height: 6’1” | Weight: 185 | Right shot | 12 goals and 13 assists in 59 games played
Scout’s view: “[T]here’s no doubt about Hämeenaho’s best quality being his intelligence. He’s an extremely smart off-puck player at both ends of the rink. . . . On the other side of the coin is Hämeenaho’s skating. It’s a problem with both the mechanics and the output. . . . Both the top speed and the acceleration are lacking.” – Elite Prospects Draft Guide
Notes: Hameenaho is routinely lauded for strong intelligence and hockey sense, making the right plays without the puck consistently. Otherwise he has a solid-but-not-superlative skill set across the board and is burdened by below-average skating. Several scouts suggest he’s close to being ready to take on a third-line role in the NHL right now but doubt he has much more upside beyond that. While this is seemingly meant as a criticism, I don’t see it that way. If Hameenaho caps out as a third-line player, that is an excellent result for a second-round pick. His production at the highest Finnish pro league at his age makes him a prime target in my NHLe calculation. At the very least he’d be a high-floor counterbalance against other high-upside picks if the Kraken selected him in the second round.
How about a few alternatives? RW Jayden Perron (Big Board rank: 36 | Analytics rank: 30), who would be a worthy selection at pick No. 50 or 52 if he falls. RW Koehn Ziemmer (Big Board rank: 44 | Analytics rank: 22) could very well be the choice at 50 or 52 if he lingers. Setting aside the uncertainty of drafting Russian players, Roman Kantserov (Big Board rank: 64 | Analytics rank: 34) would be in the mix. If I could have cheated on the premise of this exercise–that players will be drafted in Big Board order–I would have gone with Perron or Ziemmer at No. 50 and Brzustewicz at No. 52.
Age: 17 | Height: 6’2” | Weight: 179 | Left shot | 12 goals and 43 assists in 70 games played
Scout’s view: “Bertucci’s a lockdown defender with a budding transition game. He gets on his check early, matches opponents’ footwork along the boards, and ties up sticks around the net. Physicality and pace kills plays across the rink, and make him a formidable 1-on-1 defender.” – Elite Prospects Draft Guide
Notes: Bertucci’s data supports a selection in the top two rounds. Add to that quality size, young age, and on-ice performance that was trending up toward the end of the season, and there is a lot to recommend selecting him, even if it is viewed as a bit of a “reach” at pick No. 57. Critiques of Bertucci often returned to his performance with the puck under pressure, but some noted improvements as the season moved along.
How about a few alternatives? Bertucci’s teammate RW Coulsen Pitre (Big Board Rank: 68 | Analytics Rank: 41) is an intriguing alternative. Undersized but hard charging forwards Luca Pinelli (Big Board Rank: 61 | Analytics Rank: 46) and Denver Barkey (Big Board Rank: 66 | Analytics Rank: 51) would also make sense. The Kraken may opt to snag a goalie in the second round, and, if they do, Jacob Fowler (Big Board Rank: 71 | Analytics Rank: 136) and Juha Jatkola (more on him in a minute) stand out to me based on their production.
Age: 18 | Height: 6’1” | Weight: 181 | Right shot | 8 goals and 19 assists in 42 games played
Scout’s view: “He’s solid in his own end, going down to his positioning (most of the time), his active stick, and his impressive four-way mobility. His skating especially stands out as a trait that should carry over extremely well to the next levels. There are times when he can puck chase, but it’s important to note his age here. He has a great deal of development time left. He also brings an excellent level of physicality, not afraid to mix it up with anyone.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Notes: McCarthy’s data justifies his draft position, particularly as a right-handed defenseman. And scouts saw an emerging physical presence with a quality defensive game and movement skills. Headed for college in the fall, he affords the Kraken a longer timeline before reaching a signing decision.
How about a few alternatives? Tanner Ludtke (Big Board rank: 106 | Analytics rank: 72) intrigues as a center prospect who still could be on the board at this point. Winger Aiden Fink (Big Board rank: 91 | Analytics rank: 83) would be a home run swing on a small Junior-A scorer. Alexander Rykov (Big Board rank: 78 | Analytics rank: 47) would be interesting if he is still there.
Age: 20 | Height: 6’1” | Weight: 176 | Left glove | .905 save % in 43 games played
Scout’s view: “He lacks the massive frame that a lot of scouts look for, but makes up for that with an intelligent, aggressive approach to facing shooters. . . . Playing in a professional league for an extended period of time for the first time in his career seems to have paid off dividends for his situational awareness. . . . Strong skating ability in regards to both his strength and edgework are also key components to Jatkola’s game.” – Elite Prospects Draft Guide
Notes: Jatkola makes sense to me for two reasons. First, playing in Finland dovetails with the team’s goalie expertise in its scouting ranks. Second, Jatkola showed that he could perform as an above-average regular at a high professional level (Liiga). Junior goalies are years away from reaching that stage. So, theoretically, Jatkola should carry less uncertainty and a shorter development path.
How about a few alternatives? From this point forward in the draft, any player with a strong data profile becomes a likely Kraken target. Among those not mentioned below are: RW Yegor Klimovich; RD Mazden Leslie; LD Magomed Sharakanov; LD Oskar Asplund; LD Elmeri Laakso; RW Alexander Suvorov; and C Antti Virtanen.
Round 5. Pick 148: Ryan Conmy, RW, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)
Age: 18 | Height: 5’10” | Weight: 185 | Right shot | 34 goals and 30 assists in 62 games played
Scout’s view: “Conmy’s a precision shooter, crafty playmaker, and inside lane attacker. . . . When Conmy’s not on the puck, he’s getting open and creating space. . . . And he gobbles up every loose puck with a two-metre radius, cementing his 200-foot player status.” – Elite Prospects Draft Guide
Notes: Perhaps my favorite sleeper draft prospect in this class, his data profile resembles a top pick, and scouts seem generally complimentary of his play. Critiques focus on his skating mechanics and overall speed, but similar things can be said of prospects ranked much higher.
Round 6. Pick 168: Ivan Anoshko, C, Dinamo-Shinnik Bobruysk (MHL)
Age: 18 | Height: 5’10” | Weight: 168 | Left shot | 21 goals and 33 assists in 55 games played
Scout’s View: “A skilled playmaking center out of Belarus, Anoshko plays a heady and mature game. He was the MHL’s rookie of the year this season and has been on the scouting radar for a few years thanks to his international performances for Belarus. Despite a lack of size, he routinely attacks between the hash marks and drives the net. The athletic tools will undoubtedly need to improve . . . .” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Notes: An interesting late-round center prospect, there are some rumors he may play in the USHL next season, which would make his development more manageable.
Round 6. Pick 180: Justin Kipkie, LD, Victoria Royals (WHL)
Age: 17 | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 190 | Left shot | 8 goals and 25 assists in 67 games played
Scout’s View: “[Kipkie] is a strong, hard-nosed defenseman who showcases impressive mental fortitude and above-average hockey sense. He utilizes his strength and grit both in battles in the defensive end, as well as by leaning into his heavy shot. . . . His skating is flat-out ugly, with heavy boots and minimal agility, but there is possibility for improvement. He is a little difficult to project at the moment, but there is enough raw material here that a development staff could sculpt an NHL defenseman out of.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Notes: This is the point of the draft where gambling on a big-bodied defenseman makes the most sense. Kipkie is young, has tools, and some production to go with a 6-foot-4 frame. The Kraken will face a quick decision about whether to sign him, though, which is what makes this pick a bit difficult.
Age: 20 | Height: 5’11” | Weight: 176 | Right shot | 2 goals and 28 assists in 74 games played
Scout’s View: “[Konyushov] led his KHL team in average ice time, as his cerebral game on both ends convinced coach Igor Larionov to immediately give him an opportunity for a leading role on the team. And if we look at advanced stats, those are telling that this trust paid off really well, as Konyushkov is among the league’s leaders in both completed pass amount and percentage, as well as in the puck battle win percentage.” – Victor Fomich
Notes: This draft ends up a bit too heavy on the defensive side, but Konyuskov is too interesting to pass up given his strong play in the second-best professional league in the world.
