Eduard Sale (pronounced SHAH-lay), selected No. 20 overall by the Seattle Kraken, is a 6-foot-2 left-shot winger. He played at the professional level this season in perhaps the third-best league in the world, Czechia’s Extraliga, for HC Kometa Brno.
Quick thoughts on the pick
On the one hand, this is a swing on talent. The Elite Prospects team had this to say on Sale: “[On] sheer talent alone, Sale is a no-brainer top-10 pick. Perhaps even higher.” On the other hand, this isn’t an example of drafting an unproductive player. To the contrary, he checked in at No. 21 overall in the Sound Of Hockey consensus analytics ranking. My NHLe calculation pegged him as the 25th best prospect in the draft.
Eduard Sale player profile
Left Wing | HC Kometa Brno (Extraliga) | Age: 18 | Height: 6’1.75″ | Weight: 175 lbs | Left shot
Sale has been closely scrutinized, playing at a top professional level in Czechia from a very young age. But this experience makes him one of the more pro-ready prospects in the draft. It’s also possible he could come to North America this season to play in the OHL for the Barrie Colts, according to Jeff Marek.
Expect Seattle first round pick Eduard Sale to play with the OHL’s Barrie Colts next season.
Alternatively, he could be a candidate to follow in the footsteps of countryman David Jiricek and play in the AHL immediately. If so, there would be yet more reason to fire up AHL.tv and watch the Coachella Valley Firebirds again next year.
What does the Big Board say?
At the time the Kraken drafted, Sale was the second-highest ranked remaining player on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board at No. 17 overall. Only Gabe Perreault was ranked higher at No. 14. There were some highly productive North American players that were still on the board at the time of the Kraken’s pick (Perreault, Quinton Musty, and Andrew Cristall) that I thought would likely be strong considerations, but of those players only Musty’s physical tools compare with Sale’s. Sale’s highest ranking was No. 7 overall by Craig Button of TSN.
How does he look on the ice?
What are scouts saying?
Strengths: “His movement stands out as a top trait, stemming from technically sound skating mechanics. He’s able to accelerate quite quickly, reaching his top speed effortlessly. He might just be one of the fastest prospects in the draft. It’s not just his straight-line skating either. He has strong edges that he utilizes to change direction quickly and suddenly, making him hard to predict as he attacks in the offensive zone. . . . His puckhandling is nearly as good as his skating . . . . He’s able to head into traffic with the puck or without and come out with it with relative ease. He also regularly jumps into board battles and isn’t afraid to get physical in his play. He plays without any lack of confidence, sometimes even overconfident as he cheats to the offensive side of the puck. He has a strong shot but does need to work on his accuracy at times. He’s just as good at dishing it out though, showing off great vision as he moves the puck around the offensive end. . . . What might just be Sale’s most intriguing attribute though is his ability to play in all situations. He can be depended on during the penalty kill, and more than contributes at even strength and on the power play. He can play up and down the lineup and be relied on in the dying minutes of a game.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Weaknesses: “Where he does need to focus is his consistency, as he can tend to lack urgency or off-puck commitment depending on the scoreboard. When he needs to be, he’s on, but this needs to be the case every time he hits the ice.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Where can I find more information?
Corey Pronman of The Athletic (link) ($$): ranked Sale No. 24 overall
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (link) ($$): ranked Sale No. 14 overall
Chris Peters of FloHockey (link): ranked Sale No. 21 overall
There are a lot of things working in favor of this pick. Sale is a tall, toolsy player with good speed and skating skill. And beyond that his data profile already supports his status as a first-round pick. Add to that the fact that he has performed at an adequate level in a high-level professional league already as an 18-year-old, and there are many different ways to look at Sale and like the pick.
Kraken general manager Ron Francis has often said he looks to his scouts and analytics department to support each other before making a move. This looks like a pick where both sides of the front office were able to find common ground, and with director of amateur scouting Robert Kron having plenty of connections in his native Czechia, he undoubtedly had plenty of information about Sale.
It has been a while since we have done a round of Musings, but with a crazy week ahead across the league, I thought it was time I dusted off the template and shared some thoughts before we head into the NHL Entry Draft and then free agency.
Managing expectations of NHL Entry Draft prospects
The first round of the NHL Entry Draft kicks off Wednesday as 32 of the best draft-eligible hockey players in the world will hear their names called in Nashville. Rounds 2-7 will be Thursday starting at 8 a.m. Pacific. For the players that get selected, it is a remarkable accomplishment, even if a lot of them might not ever suit up for an NHL team. For those players that do eventually make it, there is still a long road ahead. To help manage everyone’s expectations, here is a quick refresher on the outlook of an NHL prospect.
First round of the NHL Entry Draft
The first round of the NHL Entry Draft is as close to a sure thing as it comes. 98 percent of NHL skaters drafted in the first round between 2010 and 2018 have played at least one NHL game and 81 percent of the first rounders played at least 100 games in the NHL.
Note that this visual excludes goalies drafted. Goalies are unique in terms of development time, and games played can be misleading since goalies can be in the NHL but not get credit for an official game played if they are serving as the backup.
Timing of first-round draft picks
When players make it to the NHL is another core component of setting expectations. Where a skater is drafted in the first round will correlate with the expected games played by season, but on the aggregate, the peak number of games played by a first-round draft pick will be around his sixth season after being drafted.
Assuming no trades that impact the Kraken’s first pick of the NHL Entry Draft, they will select 20th overall Wednesday. That means we should not expect Seattle’s first-round pick to play more than 25 games in the NHL until the 2025-26 season.
Other themes of the NHL entry draft
One of the biggest stories of the draft will be who drafts the Russian phenom, Matvei Michkov. There was a time when I remember people debating who would go No. 1, Michkov or Connor Bedard, but the world has changed since then. Michkov faced adversity and is proving to be enigmatic. Teams will need to evaluate the risk they are willing to take on by drafting Michkov, as there do seem to be a lot of questions about when he might make it to North America. Most prognosticators seem to think he doesn’t slip past eighth overall.
On that note, here is a look at the number of Russians drafted by team and round over the last three NHL Entry Drafts.
They released the Kraken… schedule
In case you missed it, the Kraken released their 2023-24 schedule. They will open in Vegas on Oct. 10, which will be the night the Golden Knights raise their Stanley Cup Championship banner. The home opener will be Oct. 17 against the Colorado Avalanche. The Kraken have the fewest back-to-back games in the league next season, which should be an advantage. During the 2022-23 season, the Kraken were 8-5-3 in the second game of a back-to-back scenario, though, so maybe this is a bad thing.
The Kraken will travel 49,572 miles this coming season which is 5,000 more miles than last season. 49,572 is fourth most behind Edmonton (53,902), Winnipeg (53,008), and Calgary (50,013).
Other Kraken Musings
The Kraken prospect pool is rather shallow at defense. We all like Ty Nelson (2022 third round) but of the drafted players, Ryker Evans (2021 second round) appears to be the only lock to eventually make the NHL.
On that note, if either of the Swedish defensemen of Tom Willander or Axel Sandin-Pellikka slip to the Kraken at No. 20, either of them will be hard to pass up.
The Kraken have never drafted a Swedish hockey play in the NHL Entry Draft.
It was fun to start entering Kraken game dates in my calendar this week. I have also started to circle a few away games on the schedule.
I wonder how many fans will be booing Cale Makar on opening night?
The Kraken have just three regular-season home games in October and a whopping 10 home games in March.
One of the rumored players on the trade block is Samuel Girard from the Colorado Avalanche. I would love to see Ron Francis pull another Oliver Bjorkstrand-like trade for Girard.
The Kraken re-signed defenseman Gustav Olofsson this week to a two-year, two-way deal for a league minimum of $775k AAV. Olofsson was steady for the few games when he got called up this season, but what I remember about him is his interaction with the fans when they were playing one of their AHL games at the Kraken Community Iceplex. He made a point to wave to kids on the glass and give fist bumps. Things you just love to see.
NHL clubs have until Friday to submit qualifying offers to their pending restricted free agents. We have mentioned it multiple times, but we do not anticipate Daniel Sprong receiving a qualifying offer. Essentially, he played too well and priced himself out of re-signing with Kraken.
Morgan Geekie is the interesting pending RFA. We saw how shrewd Ron Francis can be when he did not qualify Ryan Donato and Sprong last season, only to re-sign them in free agency later in the summer. Could he do something similar with Geekie? If Geekie is not qualified, I do not see him coming back to Seattle.
There are seven days where the Kraken, Silvertips, and Thunderbirds are all playing home games.
The busy week ahead
It is going to be a busy week, so to help you (and myself) keep it all straight, here is the rundown.
6/28 – First Round of the NHL Entry Draft (ESPN)
6/29 – Rounds two through seven of the NHL Entry Draft (NHL Network)
6/30 – Qualifying offers due for all pending restricted free agents, buyout period ends
7/1 – NHL free agency period opens
7/1 – Seattle Kraken development camp starts
7/2 – Seattle Kraken development camp open to the public
7/5 – Seattle Kraken development camp 3-on-3 scrimmage open to the public
There is a lot going on right now, and we surely missed a few topics, but if there are any questions, thoughts, or areas you would like me to explore, leave a note in the comments section. Thank you for reading. Enjoy the draft, free agency, and development camp.
It’s draft week, and that means a lot of content here at Sound Of Hockey. John Barr and Darren Brown will be talking about the draft on this week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast. On the website, check out:
The Sound Of Hockey Big Board, compiling rankings and other data for 6000+ draft eligible skaters;
Today, we mock draft. I will presume that players will come off the board in the order predicted by the Big Board. For example, if a player is slotted at No. 47 on the Big Board, I treat that player as unavailable to the Kraken at pick No. 50. In highlighting potential “alternative” picks, I’ll mention a few players who could be in range if they “fall” to Seattle’s pick. I won’t “predict” any trades, but I’ll mention a few that would be fun along the way.
Age: 17 | Height: 6’1.5” | Weight: 200 | Left shot | 27 goals and 55 assists in 57 games played
Scout’s view: “Musty has an excellent shot from range, distributes quite well off of the rush and does a great job of creating space for himself. His ability to create consistently at 5v5 is a credit to how well he handles pressure. Musty will take advantage of tight lanes when looking to thread the needle and will look to complete drop passes when hitting a wall.” – Josh Tessler
Notes: Musty would check a lot of boxes for the Kraken. His point production stacks up against past high draft picks from the OHL. He has the size, shot, and playmaking ability to thrive in the top half of an NHL lineup. He is one of the youngest players in the draft. And, he happens to play a position (left wing) at which the Kraken have not yet invested much draft capital.
Some scouts faulted his engagement and defense, though others reported that these aspects of his game improved as his draft season progressed. His skating may be the biggest question mark, but his physical profile and skill creates an avenue to a bottom-six role in the NHL even if the skating doesn’t come around.
How about a few alternatives? LW Samuel Honzek (Big Board rank: 19 | Analytics rank: 20) is an impressive athlete. LW Andrew Cristall (Big Board rank: 25 | Analytics rank: 8) is intriguing for his offensive potential if Kraken scouts are sold on his skating and overall game.
What if the draft were 10% more fun? Let’s trade picks 20, 52, and 84 to the Pittsburgh Penguins for pick No. 14 and draft LW Zach Benson (Big Board rank: 6 | Analytics rank: 6) if he falls due to size concerns.
Age: 18 | Height: 5’11.75” | Weight: 190 | Right shot | 6 goals and 55 assists in 77 games played
Scout’s view: “The four way mobility (especially his edgework and lateral quickness) is excellent . . . . As a puck mover, Brzustewicz stands out because of his vision and decision making. Poised under pressure, he always seems to make the correct play with the puck on his stick. . . . I’m a little leary of the projection, but he passed the eye test almost every night in the second half showing great progression.” – Brock Otten
Notes: Scouts describe a well-rounded profile that was trending up toward the end of the 2022-23 season. Scouting critiques point to his underlying athleticism and engagement level, but his skating skill seems solid enough for him to project as solid in the transition game. While he may not have a dynamic element that makes a top-of-the-lineup projection likely, he checks a lot of boxes for Seattle. He plays a position of thin depth in the organization (right defense), and his scoring suggests he is a solid value in the mid-second round.
How about a few alternatives? Many scouts prefer RD Beau Akey (Big Board rank: 47 | Analytics rank: 43). LD Luca Cagnoni (Big Board rank: 49 | Analytics rank: 23) is an undersized but talented player who could pay dividends if he can survive defensively at the NHL level. LD Etienne Morin (Big Board rank: 52 | Analytics rank: 57) was highly productive in the QMJHL. In reality, pick No. 50 may be a selection where Seattle tries to catch a player, likely a forward, who “falls.” I’ll highlight a few of these as alternatives to pick No. 52.
What if the draft were 10% more fun? Let’s trade picks 50 and 52 to Chicago for pick 35 and draft RD Lukas Dragicevic (Big Board Rank: 33 | Analytics Rank: 19), a blueliner with as much offensive upside as any in the draft.
Age: 18 | Height: 6’1” | Weight: 185 | Right shot | 12 goals and 13 assists in 59 games played
Scout’s view: “[T]here’s no doubt about Hämeenaho’s best quality being his intelligence. He’s an extremely smart off-puck player at both ends of the rink. . . . On the other side of the coin is Hämeenaho’s skating. It’s a problem with both the mechanics and the output. . . . Both the top speed and the acceleration are lacking.” – Elite Prospects Draft Guide
Notes: Hameenaho is routinely lauded for strong intelligence and hockey sense, making the right plays without the puck consistently. Otherwise he has a solid-but-not-superlative skill set across the board and is burdened by below-average skating. Several scouts suggest he’s close to being ready to take on a third-line role in the NHL right now but doubt he has much more upside beyond that. While this is seemingly meant as a criticism, I don’t see it that way. If Hameenaho caps out as a third-line player, that is an excellent result for a second-round pick. His production at the highest Finnish pro league at his age makes him a prime target in my NHLe calculation. At the very least he’d be a high-floor counterbalance against other high-upside picks if the Kraken selected him in the second round.
How about a few alternatives? RW Jayden Perron (Big Board rank: 36 | Analytics rank: 30), who would be a worthy selection at pick No. 50 or 52 if he falls. RW Koehn Ziemmer (Big Board rank: 44 | Analytics rank: 22) could very well be the choice at 50 or 52 if he lingers. Setting aside the uncertainty of drafting Russian players, Roman Kantserov (Big Board rank: 64 | Analytics rank: 34) would be in the mix. If I could have cheated on the premise of this exercise–that players will be drafted in Big Board order–I would have gone with Perron or Ziemmer at No. 50 and Brzustewicz at No. 52.
Age: 17 | Height: 6’2” | Weight: 179 | Left shot | 12 goals and 43 assists in 70 games played
Scout’s view: “Bertucci’s a lockdown defender with a budding transition game. He gets on his check early, matches opponents’ footwork along the boards, and ties up sticks around the net. Physicality and pace kills plays across the rink, and make him a formidable 1-on-1 defender.” – Elite Prospects Draft Guide
Notes: Bertucci’s data supports a selection in the top two rounds. Add to that quality size, young age, and on-ice performance that was trending up toward the end of the season, and there is a lot to recommend selecting him, even if it is viewed as a bit of a “reach” at pick No. 57. Critiques of Bertucci often returned to his performance with the puck under pressure, but some noted improvements as the season moved along.
How about a few alternatives? Bertucci’s teammate RW Coulsen Pitre (Big Board Rank: 68 | Analytics Rank: 41) is an intriguing alternative. Undersized but hard charging forwards Luca Pinelli (Big Board Rank: 61 | Analytics Rank: 46) and Denver Barkey (Big Board Rank: 66 | Analytics Rank: 51) would also make sense. The Kraken may opt to snag a goalie in the second round, and, if they do, Jacob Fowler (Big Board Rank: 71 | Analytics Rank: 136) and Juha Jatkola (more on him in a minute) stand out to me based on their production.
Age: 18 | Height: 6’1” | Weight: 181 | Right shot | 8 goals and 19 assists in 42 games played
Scout’s view: “He’s solid in his own end, going down to his positioning (most of the time), his active stick, and his impressive four-way mobility. His skating especially stands out as a trait that should carry over extremely well to the next levels. There are times when he can puck chase, but it’s important to note his age here. He has a great deal of development time left. He also brings an excellent level of physicality, not afraid to mix it up with anyone.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Notes: McCarthy’s data justifies his draft position, particularly as a right-handed defenseman. And scouts saw an emerging physical presence with a quality defensive game and movement skills. Headed for college in the fall, he affords the Kraken a longer timeline before reaching a signing decision.
How about a few alternatives? Tanner Ludtke (Big Board rank: 106 | Analytics rank: 72) intrigues as a center prospect who still could be on the board at this point. Winger Aiden Fink (Big Board rank: 91 | Analytics rank: 83) would be a home run swing on a small Junior-A scorer. Alexander Rykov (Big Board rank: 78 | Analytics rank: 47) would be interesting if he is still there.
Age: 20 | Height: 6’1” | Weight: 176 | Left glove | .905 save % in 43 games played
Scout’s view: “He lacks the massive frame that a lot of scouts look for, but makes up for that with an intelligent, aggressive approach to facing shooters. . . . Playing in a professional league for an extended period of time for the first time in his career seems to have paid off dividends for his situational awareness. . . . Strong skating ability in regards to both his strength and edgework are also key components to Jatkola’s game.” – Elite Prospects Draft Guide
Notes: Jatkola makes sense to me for two reasons. First, playing in Finland dovetails with the team’s goalie expertise in its scouting ranks. Second, Jatkola showed that he could perform as an above-average regular at a high professional level (Liiga). Junior goalies are years away from reaching that stage. So, theoretically, Jatkola should carry less uncertainty and a shorter development path.
How about a few alternatives? From this point forward in the draft, any player with a strong data profile becomes a likely Kraken target. Among those not mentioned below are: RW Yegor Klimovich; RD Mazden Leslie; LD Magomed Sharakanov; LD Oskar Asplund; LD Elmeri Laakso; RW Alexander Suvorov; and C Antti Virtanen.
Round 5. Pick 148: Ryan Conmy, RW, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)
Age: 18 | Height: 5’10” | Weight: 185 | Right shot | 34 goals and 30 assists in 62 games played
Scout’s view: “Conmy’s a precision shooter, crafty playmaker, and inside lane attacker. . . . When Conmy’s not on the puck, he’s getting open and creating space. . . . And he gobbles up every loose puck with a two-metre radius, cementing his 200-foot player status.” – Elite Prospects Draft Guide
Notes: Perhaps my favorite sleeper draft prospect in this class, his data profile resembles a top pick, and scouts seem generally complimentary of his play. Critiques focus on his skating mechanics and overall speed, but similar things can be said of prospects ranked much higher.
Round 6. Pick 168: Ivan Anoshko, C, Dinamo-Shinnik Bobruysk (MHL)
Age: 18 | Height: 5’10” | Weight: 168 | Left shot | 21 goals and 33 assists in 55 games played
Scout’s View: “A skilled playmaking center out of Belarus, Anoshko plays a heady and mature game. He was the MHL’s rookie of the year this season and has been on the scouting radar for a few years thanks to his international performances for Belarus. Despite a lack of size, he routinely attacks between the hash marks and drives the net. The athletic tools will undoubtedly need to improve . . . .” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Notes: An interesting late-round center prospect, there are some rumors he may play in the USHL next season, which would make his development more manageable.
Round 6. Pick 180: Justin Kipkie, LD, Victoria Royals (WHL)
Age: 17 | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 190 | Left shot | 8 goals and 25 assists in 67 games played
Scout’s View: “[Kipkie] is a strong, hard-nosed defenseman who showcases impressive mental fortitude and above-average hockey sense. He utilizes his strength and grit both in battles in the defensive end, as well as by leaning into his heavy shot. . . . His skating is flat-out ugly, with heavy boots and minimal agility, but there is possibility for improvement. He is a little difficult to project at the moment, but there is enough raw material here that a development staff could sculpt an NHL defenseman out of.” – McKeen’s Draft Guide
Notes: This is the point of the draft where gambling on a big-bodied defenseman makes the most sense. Kipkie is young, has tools, and some production to go with a 6-foot-4 frame. The Kraken will face a quick decision about whether to sign him, though, which is what makes this pick a bit difficult.
Age: 20 | Height: 5’11” | Weight: 176 | Right shot | 2 goals and 28 assists in 74 games played
Scout’s View: “[Konyushov] led his KHL team in average ice time, as his cerebral game on both ends convinced coach Igor Larionov to immediately give him an opportunity for a leading role on the team. And if we look at advanced stats, those are telling that this trust paid off really well, as Konyushkov is among the league’s leaders in both completed pass amount and percentage, as well as in the puck battle win percentage.” – Victor Fomich
Notes: This draft ends up a bit too heavy on the defensive side, but Konyuskov is too interesting to pass up given his strong play in the second-best professional league in the world.
When the Coachella Valley Firebirds lost to the Hershey Bears in Game 7 of the AHL Calder Cup Finals last week, it also marked the end of Shane Wright’s long, winding season.
Wright’s first season with the Kraken organization started off rocky. He made the NHL roster out of training camp but then played just 13 total hockey games over a 70-day stretch. Eight of those were in the NHL, where he averaged just 8:29 of ice time. Many armchair experts were calling for his return to his junior team, and after being loaned to Team Canada for the World Junior Championship, Wright would eventually be sent back to the Kingston Frontenacs of the OHL on Jan. 6. From the outside, it was looking in the early stages like the Kraken had botched Wright’s development out of the gate.
As 2022-23 went on, though, Wright ended up playing a lot more hockey across various levels, making up for the early season lapses. How did his season stack up against other players in his position over the past decade? We dug into the numbers to find out.
Looking at the breadth of the season
The season might have started off slowly for Wright, but he finished with 70 total games across the NHL, AHL, OHL, and World Juniors, thanks in large part to 23 AHL playoff games with the Firebirds. Is 70 games a lot for a player of Wright’s caliber and age? How does that compare to another player’s first season after being drafted?
Since 2013, 51 players have been drafted in the top 10 out of the CHL. When we isolate those 51 players, we can look at the number of games played across all leagues for those players.
Wright ended up just five games off the median number of games played (75) for this cohort, which is fine, especially considering how this season started for him.
Points per game
Games played is one thing, but how did Wright play in those games? Unfortunately, the data across non-NHL leagues is fairly limiting with just high-level stats for individual player performances, so the best we can do across all leagues is points per game. Wright scored .91 points per game.
Again, how does that stack up across his peer group? To compare Wright to his contemporaries on a points-per-game rate, we will need to filter the original 51 players to just forwards. That gives us 38 players to look at for a comparison.
On the surface, Wright’s output looks below average, ranking 23rd out of the 38 forwards in his peer group, but we should dig deeper on that. Remember that over half of Wright’s games played were in either the AHL (31 games) or NHL (8 games). Being that the NHL and AHL have stiffer competition compared with World Juniors and the OHL, Wright’s production was unsurprisingly lower when playing at pro levels. If we exclude the AHL and NHL games from the data, we get a bit of a different picture.
Wright ranks 13th out of the 32 remaining players when excluding AHL and NHL games. This still doesn’t give us the whole picture, though, because players skewed in different directions depending on their development paths. Connor McDavid, for example, didn’t play any games in the CHL in his first season after being drafted, yet he shows up with 0.9 points per game in games played outside the NHL and AHL. McDavid’s only non-NHL games after being selected No. 1 overall in 2015 came from the IIHF World Championship, where he was competing with NHL players.
Players in the AHL under 19 years old
It is very rare for a prospect under 19 years old to spend any significant time in the AHL. This is partly due to the NHL-CHL development agreement and partly because it’s rare that these players are physically ready for the AHL. The pandemic-impacted season of 2020-21 gave us an unusual influx of under-19-year-old players in the AHL. If we isolate these players that were under 19 to start the season, we get a small sample to help evaluate Shane’s performance.
On a points-per-game basis, Wright landed right in the middle at .469 during the 2022-23 season, which includes the playoffs. Of course, even this has some nuance. 75 percent of his games came in the playoffs where scoring is more difficult. Shane Wright averaged .750 points per game during the regular season but only .375 during the playoffs.
Next year will be huge
Simply evaluating games played and points per game is far from a complete analysis of Wright’s body of work this season, but despite how the season started, there are some encouraging signs. The No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft was still able to play close to the average number of games this season with 32 of those coming in the AHL. This should be considered a bonus to his development year, being that he technically wasn’t even eligible to play at that level. It is still unclear if the AHL is an option for Wright next season, but he has proven that he can compete at that level, which might be the best place for him if he is allowed to go there in 2023-24.
For the first time, the Seattle Kraken are primed to reap what they’ve sowed from their prospect pool.
Except for Matty Beniers, one of the few prospects ready to contribute immediately, the Kraken system was slowly being built up over the last couple seasons. Now, there are some young players knocking on the door to become NHL regulars.
Vying for NHL spots
Tye Kartye
Tye Kartye is a no-brainer to be in this category. Not only did he prove he belonged at the NHL level with three goals and five points in 10 playoff games – in his debut stint with Seattle, no less – but the 22-year-old forward showed he’s exceptional in the AHL as the league rookie of the year.
Two competing questions come to mind for Kartye. From one perspective, Kartye will need to kick out one of the current top-nine forwards — all under contract next season — to play a true scoring role. However, one could argue Kartye has little left to prove in the ‘A’ after his 57-point season as a rookie.
We wouldn’t be shocked to see Kartye back starring in Coachella Valley next season and in the mix for call-ups in the event of injuries and suspensions to key offensive players. But more than likely, the Seattle Kraken will find a spot for him in the lineup, possibly playing in a fourth-line role similar to Daniel Sprong, who bagged 21 goals and 46 total points this season.
Also of note: While he’s a tad old to be considered a true “prospect,” Kole Lind is having a great season in the AHL and will be in the running for a spot on the NHL roster. Same goes for veterans like Andrew Poturalski. There’s room for Kartye and Lind on the Kraken next season, but how Seattle handles its restricted free agents (RFAs) and unrestricted free agents (UFAs) will provide more clarity.
Ryker Evans
The 21-year-old defenseman has been excellent in his first AHL season, with 44 points in 71 games. He also leads all defensemen in the Calder Cup playoffs with 13 points in 13 games.
Ryker Evans–who looked like the best @Firebirds skater for last 30 minutes or so of this one–wins it for Coachella Valley in 3OT (!!)
Firebirds lead the Wranglers 2-1, with the chance to advance Wednesday, potentially with Jesper Froden and Tye Kartye in the lineup.
Unlike Kartye, Evans has a cleaner path to playing time next season. Currently, Carson Soucy is a UFA, and three others —Vince Dunn, Will Borgen, and Cale Fleury — are RFAs. Depending on how Seattle general manager Ron Francis handles the aforementioned quartet of blueliners — granted with roughly $18 million of cap space, according to CapFriendly — may indicate how ready the Kraken believe Evans is for the NHL.
Shane Wright
Unfortunately, there are intricacies and complications with that pesky NHL-CHL agreement that blur the situation with Wright next season.
Ideally, Wright could play in the American Hockey League and continue to develop if he’s not quite ready for the NHL, but that might not be a permanent option. Wright has little to prove in junior after tallying 37 points in 20 games for the Windsor Spitfires this year.
All three of Henman, Petman, and Seppala played for the Firebirds last year and should factor into the Coachella Valley lineup again next year.
Eligible for the AHL
Aged out of junior
Logan Morrison
Kyle Jackson
Both of these forward prospects will be over 20 years old next season and thus aged out of the Ontario Hockey League.
Morrison, who was signed as an undrafted free agent, should factor into Coachella Valley in some form or fashion. At the very least, he’ll play in the ECHL.
Jackson’s situation is more complicated, as he’s unsigned. The Kraken have until June 1 to make a contract offer to Jackson. If they don’t, he’ll become a free agent.
The 20-year-old center posted 83 points in 67 games for the North Bay Battalion.
Making the leap
Ryan Winterton
Jacob Melanson
Ville Ottavainen
Barring any surprises, all three should make their AHL debuts next year.
Winterton and Melanson, both of whom are signed to entry-level contracts, will be 20 next season and are old enough to play for Coachella Valley; it’s unlikely for signed NHL prospects to play their overage season in junior hockey. Both forwards have been assigned to Coachella Valley for the postseason, but only Melanson has drawn into the lineup and has played one game.
Winterton led all skaters in the OHL playoffs with 29 points, but fellow Kraken prospect Tucker Robertson and the Peterborough Petes knocked his team out in the Finals.
Melanson scored 99 points in 59 games for two teams — the Sherbrooke Phoenix and the Acadie Bathurst-Titan in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League.
Eligible for the AHL but up in the air
Tucker Robertson
Robertson and the Petes are playing in the Memorial Cup over the weekend. Based on how the Kraken have handled their prospect signings this spring, waiting until the player’s season is over to announce the signing, a contract could be waiting for the fourth-round pick. Robertson posted 90 points in 68 games in the OHL this season.
Unlike Jackson, the Kraken don’t have to decide on Robertson until June 1, 2024. If the summer passes without a contract for Robertson, he’ll likely return to the OHL for his 20-year-old season.
Headed back to juniors/NCAA/overseas
Jagger Firkus (signed) – WHL
Ty Nelson (signed) – OHL
David Goyette (signed) – OHL
Tyson Jugnauth – NCAA (Wisconsin)
Ben MacDonald – NCAA (Harvard)
Justin Janicke – NCAA (Notre Dame)
Barrett Hall – NCAA (St. Cloud State)
Niklas Kokko (signed) – Liiga
Jani Nyman – Liiga
Semyon Vyazovoy – VHL/MHL
We don’t expect any of the aforementioned prospects to make the professional leap next year.
Firkus, Nelson, and Goyette are too young to play in the AHL by the NHL-CHL agreement.
Kokko, Nyman, and Vyazovoy are all eligible – European Leagues don’t have any restrictions on age like the CHL — but likely won’t be in the AHL next season for two separate reasons. For Kokko, Francis said he expects him to play overseas for another year before jumping to North America.
#SeaKraken GM Ron Francis, on @933KJR with Ian Furness on May 18, mentioned that he expected 2022 2nd rd pick G Niklas Kokko to play one more year in Liiga and then "potentially come over the year after that" (i.e. to play in N.A.). Kokko signed an ELC with Seattle on May 8th.
Nyman and Vyazovoy are unsigned and won’t be eligible unless offered a contract.
All of the NCAA players will almost certainly return to their respective schools.
Josh Horton
Josh Horton is a freelance writer, former newspaper journalist, and erstwhile Western Hockey League writer for the Everett Herald and The Spokesman-Review (Spokane). He is NOT a juggler, nor is he a former professional baseball player. Follow him on Twitter @byjoshhorton.
The Musings post is usually published on Mondays, but with a big Kraken win on Sunday, we thought it might be good to let the victory content breathe a bit.
Kraken Thoughts
When I wrote the Musings last week, I was a little nervous. The boys had just lost three games in a row, and the playoff cushion was starting to shrink. My message was, “Don’t panic,” but if I am going to be honest, my hand was on the panic button.
As an act of defiance, the boys would go a perfect four-for-four on their road trip that ended with a thrilling come-from-behind overtime win against the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. Meanwhile, the Calgary Flames got just one point out of a possible six during the same time span. Now, it is Nashville who finds itself just on the outside of the playoff cut with several games in hand on Winnipeg and Edmonton. The Oilers and Jets currently sit in the Western Conference wild card spots.
What a difference a week makes.
Getting back to the Kraken games, all four were either tied or just a one-goal game entering the last minute of regulation play. Even in victory, the first two games of the road trip against St. Louis and Detroit felt a little shaky. Several defensive breakdowns kept those games closer than they should have been, but to the team’s credit, Seattle buckled down and figured out ways to win. It wasn’t until the third game of the week, against Columbus, did the Kraken look like the team we have come to expect this season.
Philipp Grubauer
Most regular readers of this column will know that I am a Philipp Grubauer supporter. I punched the numbers on my abacus and feel that all signs point to Grubi being the better goalie right now. Heading into last week, Grubi was coming off back-to-back losses to Boston and Toronto where he allowed 10 goals over those two games. They weren’t great performances by any statistical measure, but being how well the Bruins and Leafs played those nights, I am not sure Dominik Hasek at the peak of his powers would have made a difference in those games for the Kraken. It made me think that Grubi had been getting the more challenging starts this season, so I looked it up.
The data bears it out. On average, Grubi plays the better teams in the NHL and has faced just five teams under a .500 points percentage. That said, Seattle needs Grubauer to steal some games against the best teams in the league. I do not feel Sunday’s win against the Avalanche would constitute stealing one, but it was a big win against a quality opponent.
Trade deadline
It would have been nice to see the Kraken add a middle-six forward as a stop gap for Andre Burakovsky being out of the lineup and as insurance for any additional injuries down the road. The trade deadline is a time when teams overpay for players, though, and Ron Francis is more disciplined than a lot of us would be in the same position. The team still has draft picks and will have salary cap flexibility rolling into next season, so you wonder if the Kraken might be willing to pull some bigger levers this offseason.
Other Kraken musings:
Francis said Andre Burakovsky was back on the ice for the first time since his injury on Feb. 7. The team has missed him in the lineup. At the time of his injury, he was leading the Kraken in points, and although it has been better lately, his absence is most notable on the power play.
As an indicator of how teams tend to overpay during the trade deadline, the Kraken obtained Oliver Bjorkstrand for just a third- and fourth-round draft pick last summer. First-round picks were being passed around the league like candy last week for players inferior to Bjorkstrand.
Bjorkstrand’s shooting percentage is 12.5 percent since Jan. 1, compared to 5.4 percent prior to New Year’s Day. This is the Bjorkstrand we expected.
Jaden Schwartz had five points over the last three games, and his forecheck to get the puck for Brandon Tanev’s tying goal Sunday could have been the biggest play of the week.
Speaking of big plays, how about Grubauer’s save in Detroit? You never know how a goal there could have impacted the outcome of the game.
Chris Driedger is now 2-1-0 in three starts for the Coachella Valley Firebirds with a .907 save percentage. I believe we will see him get some starts for the Kraken before the end of the season.
If the Kraken finish the season with just 50 percent of the points available, they will finish the season with 97 points. The current forecasted playoff cut is right around 93 points.
Really enjoyed Alison Lukan’s article on the Kraken website on the different possession styles of Bjorkstrand, Wennberg, and Gourde who are all in the league top-10 in takeaways minus giveaways.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
The theme of the week should be getting points where you can, because this week kicks off the toughest 10-game stretch the Kraken will play the rest of the season. Anaheim, Ottawa, and Dallas have been relatively hot teams as of late and will each have their own motivations to beat the Kraken. Getting three out of six points will be fine, but if they can get more, excellent. If the Kraken can get the consistent goaltending from Grubauer (or Jones) and special teams stays hot, at least three points should be expected. The back-to-back games against Dallas should be a benchmark game to see how ready both teams are for the playoffs.
What normally would be thought of as an easy game Tuesday against Anaheim, the Ducks have won four out of their last five games with their only loss in that stretch being an overtime loss to the Washington Capitals. If there is anything the Feb. 20 San Jose game has shown us, you cannot take a night off against a lesser opponent and expect to win.
Thursday does not get any easier with the Ottawa Senators coming to town. Prior to the loss last night, the Senators won five games in a row and will be fighting for their lives to get into the playoffs.
Stick Taps / Player Performance
Philipp Grubauer (SEA) – three wins over four days with a .921 save percentage.
Kyle Jackson (NBB/SEA) – The unsigned seventh-round pick from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft has a five-game point streak for the North Bay Battalion in the OHL.
Jared McCann (SEA) – He had four goals and three assists over his last five games, including his 30th goal of the season, becoming the first Seattle Kraken to hit the 30-goal mark in a season.
Did you realize Jared McCann has scored 30 goals already this season? The former Canuck leads all skaters in shooting impact at even strength. pic.twitter.com/mbdXP4i58i
There has been a lot of talk about how well the Kraken special teams is playing right now. Here is a look at the outcomes of games depending on who wins the special teams in the game.
If you have any questions or comments on Monday Musings, please leave them below, and I will get back to you as soon as I can.
