Sound Of Hockey Draft Week continues with a newly minted resource for draft savants and newcomers, alike. We have added links to shift-by-shift gameplay videos for almost 200 prospects eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft to the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Direct link to the Board HERE. There is also summary chart with links to the videos further down in this post, and you can find them in a playlist on the Deep Sea Hockey YouTube Channel.
Our hope is that you find this a useful resource in preparing for and reviewing your favorite team’s draft picks. Bookmark it; share it. (Sound Of Hockey patrons, keep reading for an additional resource.)
Bringing access to draft prospects
When I think of successful public draft analysis, my mind often starts with Mel Kiper’s pioneering work delivering an outsider’s critical analysis on the NFL Draft. It began with general managers asking “Who the hell is Mel Kiper?” But fast forward to today, and there has been an explosion of public sphere football draft coverage. It has found a growing audience of educated and invested fans there to consume it. I know I enjoy NFL Draft coverage every year.
I think about all of this in the context of preparing for the 2024 NHL Draft. I’d love to see the same market growth on the NHL side. That said, the NFL has at least three ingredients to its success–and decided avantages over the NHL–in delivering draft coverage.
First, and most important, is the popularity of the NFL. There is not a lot anyone in our position can do individually to change that situation. But I’d say campaigning and organizing for a 32nd hockey franchise, running a weekly Podcast, and providing in-depth coverage of a team and league–all as a passion-project gig–is Sound Of Hockey “doing our part” on that score. So, we’re trying.
Second, the NFL Draft delivers a type of instant gratification that is rarely seen on the NHL side. Do the Seattle Seahawks need an offensive lineman? Go draft one in the first round, and that player will be expected to start 17 NFL games in year one. In contrast, only a small handful of players make their NHL debut in their draft season. This year, perhaps only Macklin Celebrini can be considered “likely” to suit up in NHL gear in the fall.
Again, there is not really much we at Sound Of Hockey can do about that, except to spread the good word that following drafted prospects in leagues around the world is its own joy. There are few things I have enjoyed more than tuning into the dulcet tones of Firebirds broadcaster Evan Pivnick to check in on the development of prospects like Logan Morrison or Ryan Winterton. I know John Barr is probably HV71’s No.1 fan in the United States from following Oscar Fisker Mølgaard’s post-draft season in the SHL. On the Sound Of Hockey Patreon and the Deep Sea Hockey YouTube Channel, I try to keep Kraken fans up to date with prospect videos when I can.
Third, fans are relatively more familiar with the players entering the NFL at the draft. The NFL’s development league–college football–is itself incredibly popular. Fans have existing knowledge of and relationships with the players. This means they can bring their own thoughts, hopes, and fears to the draft–above and beyond what they can find printed in a draft preview.
The NHL fan is hampered by the fact that there is no single development league to follow. NHL prospects come from anywhere and everywhere around the hockey-playing world. This is part of the beauty of it, but it hurts draft engagement.
This is where my prospect video project comes in. I wanted to get NHL fans more access to these players during the draft season. My hope is that greater access is a missing ingredient–a small entryway for fans into the NHL draft or hockey more generally.
For example, the Sound Of Hockey Big Board has Swedish forward Linus Erickson ranked No. 40 overall, which happens to be the position of the first second-round draft choice held by the Seattle Kraken. Erickson is an 18-year-old forward who played in HockeyAllsvenskan, the second tier Swedish professional hockey league, for Djurgårdens IF. Supposing Erickson were Seattle’s choice, what are the odds that the choice would generate anything other than a shrug from the vast majority of hockey fans in the Pacific Northwest?
One could (and should) read the scouting work done on Erickson from outlets like EliteProspects and the reporting done by great public sphere analysts like Chris Peters of FloHockey. Peters calls Erickson “[a] sturdy forward with some good compete in his game” and projects a bottom-six role. How does that look on tape?
There may be highlights available somewhere, but highlights don’t tell the whole story. It’s valuable to know what a player can do operating at his peak, but what does his ordinary gameplay really look like? As a draft consumer myself, I wanted to know.
All Shifts videos
As part of my more general project tracking hockey prospect data and public analyst rankingsthroughout the 2023-24 season, I had access to a shortlist of likely top prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft. I decided to watch and create video on as many of the top-150-ranked prospects as I could–as well as others that turned up favorably in my data-only draft rankings.
For each player, I excerpted all of their shifts from a game, typically returning up to 20 minutes of gameplay.
That said, one intended benefit of this project was to have all of the videos in one organized and easily-accessible resource. That is why we have included the video links in a table below. I have also added a video link for each prospect observed on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board–178 videos in total as of June 26, 2024.
Community members who have joined us on the Sound Of Hockey Patreon get an added benefit. For a number of top prospects, I made more than one All Shifts video. For example, I made five videos for Cole Eiserman alone. As a thank you to these community members, we are making the full video list available on a spreadsheet posted on the Sound Of Hockey Patreon.
Not a patron and want access to additional videos for top prospects? Sign up today at patreon.com/soundofhockey. Your support helps defray some of the costs of running the SOH Podcast, soundofhockey.com, and providing hockey coverage.
A few closing thoughts and caveats
Of course, video from one game–or even a few games–is not enough to reach a fully-informed scouting view on a player. That is not our goal here. Our goal is to democratize access to hockey prospects just a bit, and to provide a new centralized video resource that we had always wished existed but–to our knowledge–did not. We want to spark conversation and more inquiry.
For a couple different reasons, I opted against creating videos for players in Russian leagues this year. That said, when I was able to find comparable videos from other public sources for top Russian players, I have included those links.
Now turning to even the very fine print, we should note that Sound Of Hockey does not own the underlying broadcast rights for any of the broadcasts from which these videos were created. We believe that these videos fall with the commentary and criticism fair use exception because they are for scouting individual players.
I expect to add at least a few more videos before and shortly after the draft. Here, again, is the link to the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board. If there are any in particular you would like to see, let us know. More generally, if you have any questions about the videos, players, or big-picture NHL Draft issues, let’s talk. Drop us a line in the comments below or on X @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Welcome to NHL Draft Week here at Sound Of Hockey. And we’re kicking things off with year three of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board, ranking prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft, set to kick off on Friday. We also made a mid-season version earlier this year that you can check out here.
What is the Sound Of Hockey Big Board? It’s a ranking built on a compilation of reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists. This year, we gathered ranking data from 20 sources. (See the complete list below.)
We consolidated the various ranks into a single composite ranking by a weighted geometric mean calculation. Why do we use geomean? If you’re curious you can find an applicable explanation from a different context here. Weights were assigned based on our assessment of the depth of experience, sourced reporting, or scouting insight factored into the component lists themselves. For example, Bob McKenzie’s list for TSN, which is built based on conversations with scouts, is weighted the most. The voluminous work done by independent scouts at Elite Prospectsis next in line, and so forth.
The Sound Of Hockey Big Board also provides information on each player’s measurements, statistics, and playing experience for the 2023-24 season, mostly drawn from Elite Prospects, NHL Central Scouting, and the NHL Draft Combine.
All told, the Sound Of Hockey Big Board covers approximately 9,000 draft-eligible prospects. (That is not a typo. Last year the Big Board covered almost 7,000 prospects. This year there’s even more.)
Based on what we have seen, we continue to believe the Sound Of Hockey Big Board is the most comprehensive source anywhere in compiling draft-prospect-related information in one place. To this point, the Big Board will be getting an additional injection of player information starting Wednesday. Call that a tease.
Scouting lists supplemented by data work
If you’ve been following along, you’ll know we’ve also published our data-only 2024 NHL Draft prospect rankings throughout the 2023-24 season: final version, midseason version, and preseason version.
Those data-only rankings are built on the foundation of an NHL equivalency or “NHLe.” What is NHLe? NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2023-24 season data.
From there, I made a number of adjustments based on factors known to impact the probability of prospect success, including age, height, re-draft status, position, percentage of total team offense produced, and relative on-ice plus-minus. Read up on the methodology here and here.
I bring this up because I included my final NHLe data score as a source on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board at a minuscule weight in order to give the board some “order” for the prospects that went unranked by all 20 sources. I explained why I did this in an earlier post.
The Sound Of Hockey Big Board
So, without further ado, you can find the Sound Of Hockey Big Board in Google Sheets HERE.
Important note on using the Sound Of Hockey Big Board: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 3, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Here is a snapshot of top 65 prospects in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, sorted by the overall composite rank:
Compiled rankings
Here are the scouting sources we used (so far) in building the Sound Of Hockey Big Board:
First, when you click through to the full composite draft board, you will see that many of the individual rankings are grayed out beyond the top 32. This is because those rankings are behind a paywall. To get to Corey Pronman’s full ranking of prospects, for example, a subscription to The Athletic is required. While we utilized all of the individual rankings listed above to develop our composite list, we will not be sharing subscriber-only individual rankings in the public version of the composite big board.
Second, the Big Board does not reflect our view on these prospects. We at Sound Of Hockey have read reports, watched some videos, and crunched a few numbers. I’ll be putting up more thoughts of my own before the draft, but that is not what this exercise is about. The Sound Of Hockey Big Board is simply a tabulation of the rankings of others. A player’s ranking has nothing to do with whether any of us here at Sound Of Hockey “like” the player or not.
Third, and finally, it bears emphasis that a “composite” ranking is not the be-all and end-all. In many ways, finding the “best” public list and trusting it is preferable. A consensus board cannot explain why one prospect is ranked higher than another, and it certainly cannot displace the work of scouts or draft reporters.
But a composite ranking can provide some added information. Think of it as the cherry on top of the sundae, not the sundae itself.
How so? In the first year of this Big Board I used the case of Brad Lambert as an example. This year Trevor Connelly could be an instructive case. Both players are talented but viewed as risky for different reasons, and had widely varying rankings on individual public boards. How do we synthesize that information? A composite approach can exploit the wisdom of the crowd. Connelly’s final ranking may blend the upside and risk, placing him in a “fair” or “expected” position.
Three Big Board takeaways
We will return before the draft with more thoughts on certain prospects and which ones might be the best fit for the Seattle Kraken specifically, but in the meantime, here are three topline takeaways.
No debate at No. 1. For the second straight year, we have a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. Macklin Celebrini ranked No. 1 on every list included in our sample. (Note that NHL Central Scouting’s ranking is split into four lists, so Central Scouting actually has four players ranked “No. 1.” But I have little doubt NHL Central Scouting believes Celebrini is the best prospect in this draft.) While Celebrini may not bring the electric skill of a Connor Bedard, he plays at a high level in all facets of the game. In particular, his hockey sense, vision, and passing ability have drawn Sidney Crosby-lite comparisons. He will almost certainly be the pick at No. 1 overall by the San Jose Sharks and a challenge in the Pacific Division for years to come.
Consensus on valuable defensemen. In our data-only ranking, we had four consecutive defensemen rounding out a standout top five after Celebrini: Zeev Buium (No. 2), Zayne Parekh (No. 3), Artyom Levshunov (No. 4), and Sam Dickinson (No. 5). The scouts largely agreed, ranking all four within the top-eight: Buium (No. 4 on the Big Board), Parekh (No. 8), Levshunov (No. 3), and Dickinson (No. 7). It just so happens the Kraken have the No. 8 pick and a need for additional depth on the blue line.
A big year for Norwegian hockey. A Norwegian has never been drafted in the first round of the NHL Draft. This year, the Sound Of Hockey Big Board foresees two Norwegians as first-round picks: forward Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (ranked No. 15) and defenseman Stian Solberg (No. 21). To make matters even sweeter for Norway, both may go before Sweden’s highest-ranked player, Alfons Freij (No. 26). And two first-round picks could match or surpass Finland too, with only Konsta Helenius (No. 11) and Emil Hemming (No. 29) seen as Finnish first-round picks.
Local connections in the draft
While the Seattle Thunderbirds aren’t the same draft powerhouse they were in 2023, there are still a number of Pacific Northwest connections in the 2024 NHL Draft. Here are a few of the players with local tie-ins on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board:
Berly Catton, F, Spokane Chiefs, WHL: ranked No. 6 on the Big Board
Tij Iginla, F, Kelowna Rockets, WHL (played with the Thunderbirds from 2021-23): No. 9
Julius Miettinen, F, Everett Silvertips, WHL: No. 41
Kaden Shahan, F, Sioux City Musketeers, USHL (born in Everett): No. 206
Eric Jamieson, D, Everett Silvertips, WHL (2023 Kraken development camp invite): No. 214
Final thoughts
The 2024 NHL Draft kicks off with Round 1 on Friday, June 28, at 4:00 p.m. PT. Rounds 2 through 7 start on Saturday at 8:30 am PT.
In the meantime, here again is a link to the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Bookmark it, share it, and consult it between now and the draft. Keep it close during the draft itself because in the past, the data has been a pretty strong indicator of what the Kraken (and other teams) will do. In the meantime, similar to last year, we’ll return before the draft with some opinions on Sound Of Hockey Big Board targets and with a Seattle Kraken mock draft.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
This is going to be a wild week in the hockey world, kicking off Monday with a rare Stanley Cup Final Game 7. This will only be the second Game 7 in a Final in the last 10 years. There are numerous storylines: Connor McDavid could cement his legacy as one of the all-time greats by potentially bringing the Cup back to Edmonton and to Canada, while the Florida Panthers are aiming for their first championship in franchise history. It’s going to be a remarkable story, regardless of the outcome.
In addition to the Stanley Cup Final, there will be at least one more Calder Cup game, the NHL Awards show, the NHL Entry Draft, and if all that wasn’t enough, free agency will begin next Monday, July 1. Here are some thoughts on the coming week.
Will there be any more trades?
There’s a lot of buzz right now about trades leading up to the NHL Draft, but we hear this every year. So it’s hard to tell if this is just hype or if this year will be different. There was a flurry of trades last week, highlighted by the Kings and Capitals making a one-for-one swap of Pierre-Luc Dubois for Darcy Kuemper and the Flames sending Jacob Markstrom to the Devils for Kevin Bahl and a 2025 first-round pick. Is that the end of the pre-draft fireworks, or are there more coming?
Every time names get floated as potential trade candidates, I get about 10 text messages either asking for my opinion or individuals sharing their opinions with me on whether the Seattle Kraken should make a play for them. The hottest names in the trade rumor mill are Trevor Zegras, Martin Necas, and Patrik Laine.
All three come with some inherent risk. Necas, a pending restricted free agent, would be the best fit in Seattle, but what would it cost to get him, and how will his next contract look? Evolving-Hockey estimates Necas’ contract at close to $9 million per year. The Kraken have cap space, but such a contract would consume a lot of it, leaving several holes to fill in the forward group with few dollars available.
I might be in the minority here, but I think Trevor Zegras would be a great addition for the Kraken. He has immense skill and had a rough season due to ankle surgery followed by a groin injury. Zegras’ cap hit is more manageable at $5.75 million per year, and the Kraken could potentially acquire him at a lower cost. The question is whether the 2023-24 season was just a blip or if that’s the player Zegras will be.
I don’t think Laine makes sense for the Kraken to pursue unless Columbus retains salary and/or sweetens the pot to make the risk associated with his $8.7 million cap hit worthwhile. The Kraken need goals, which Laine can provide, but that’s all he can do, and this team might not be able to afford his deficiencies in other areas. Despite the rumors, I don’t see this as a fit.
If I were the Kraken, I’d look at Winnipeg’s Nikolaj Ehlers and Tampa Bay’s Tanner Jeannot. Both players have been mentioned as potential trade candidates but aren’t getting a lot of headlines right now. They are very different players, but both could fill a need the Kraken had last season. Ehlers can reliably score 20 or more goals in a season, and Jeannot has the physical edge that seemed to be missing from Seattle’s lineup last season.
The Kraken have been among the top teams in terms of quantity of draft picks over the last few years. With one first-round pick, two second-round picks, and two third-round picks this draft, the team doesn’t need all those picks. Given their quantity of picks and solid prospect pool, the organization is well-positioned to package some of those chips together for talent that can help next season.
Draft thoughts
Assuming no trades, the Seattle Kraken will be drafting in the eighth position on Friday night when the NHL Draft kicks off. The top 10 of the draft class is loaded with defensemen, and the Kraken’s prospect pool lacks high-end blueliners. It’s not guaranteed, but I anticipate the Kraken drafting a defenseman with their first selection at eighth overall. I’ve been fascinated by Zeev Buium and Zayne Parekh, but that’s based on reading a dozen articles and getting caught in a YouTube vortex. No matter how much research we do, the Kraken scouting staff will have logged thousands more hours in preparation for this draft. They know what they are doing. Regardless of who they pick, they should get a great player at eighth overall.
Here is a look at the Kraken’s draft history:
Expect a ton of draft content coming to Sound Of Hockey this week, including a live blog for day two of the draft.
Other musings
It sure would be nice to know what Matty Beniers’ and Eeli Tolvanen’s contracts will look like next season before free agency begins to see how much budget the Kraken have to play with on July 1. Hopefully, they are close and have a good idea where they might land.
A couple of people have asked if the Kraken might be interested in Winnipeg’s prospect, Rutger McGroarty. Of course, they would be interested, but I just don’t think he is what the Kraken need right now. Based on all post-season availabilities from the Kraken front office, they are trying to get better now, not seasons from now. McGroarty would be a great prospect, but he doesn’t fit that agenda.
Another circulating rumor is the possible trade of Brandon Tanev to Ottawa. This would make a lot of sense from the Seattle Kraken’s side. If they are looking to get better, they need to clear additional cap space and roster spots to repurpose those slots with more scoring. Fans love Brandon Tanev, but this is the truth.
The 2023-24 NHL season will go down as having the most games ever played in a single season, with 1511 total games. Last season had 1508. This record will be instantly broken the next time the NHL expands.
I really hope Chris Driedger gets a shot in the NHL next season. He has been solid all year for the Coachella Valley Firebirds and was narrowly beaten out by Joey Daccord at the beginning of the 2023-24 season as the second goalie in Seattle. He deserves another shot.
Ryan Winterton is having a great Calder Cup Final. He has five goals in the first six games of the series and has been generating a lot of shots. I wonder where the Kraken brass will have him penciled in next season. Based on his late-season call-up games, I thought he needed another year of development in Coachella Valley, but now I’m not so sure.
Watching Coachella Valley through the playoffs, I realize that the Seattle Kraken don’t have a bona fide third goalie they can count on in a pinch if either Grubauer or Daccord gets hurt for an extended amount of time next year. Only Niklas Kokko and Victor Ostman are under contract for next season, and I am not sure they would be ready to step in to a prolonged stint in the NHL. They have used three goalies in each of the last three seasons, so this leaves me to expect the Kraken to sign a goalie who can move between the AHL and NHL next season.
Although not Kraken-related, I am interested to see where Ivan Demidov gets selected. He is said to have elite skill but hasn’t been battle tested, since he spent the season in the MHL, which is a large gap to the NHL. I think Demidov will end up being one of the big stories of the first round.
I expect the 2024-25 schedule to be released this week. Word around the campfire is that for the first time in franchise history, the Seattle Kraken will open at home. If I am a betting man, I would put money on Oct. 8.
It is extremely unlikely that the Kraken would be able to take him in the second round, but I’ve been obsessed with Michael Brandsegg-Nygård ever since someone sent me this video.
Two minutes of Michael Brandsegg-Nygård breaking up plays on the forecheck, hustling for loose pucks, winning body positioning, and running over grown men like it's nothing.
The Calder Cup Finals have given us some great goals including this one from Shane Wright, but the setup from Cale Fleury at center ice was incredible.
This is going to be a wild week of activity, and I anticipate the Kraken making moves to bolster the team for next season. We already have a ton of content planned and will keep you abreast of any breaking news. If you have any thoughts or questions, let us know in the comments section below.
Enjoy Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, Game 6 of the Calder Cup Finals, and then buckle up for what will surely be a busy week for the Seattle Kraken.
Now, as the calendar turns to June, we look to the future. Draft season is upon us. In less than four weeks, just after 4:00 p.m. PT on Friday, June 28, the San Jose Sharks will make Macklin Celebrini the first overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. This much we’re fairly confident about. After that, the real game begins. Who are the best prospects? Who should the Kraken (or your favorite team) be targeting? We dug into the numbers.
Today, we present our final data-only ranking of the 2024 NHL Draft skater prospects. I made a few adjustments to my method of calculating this final ranking, which I will get to in a moment. But, as with each of our previous quantitative rankings, this list is built upon the foundation of an NHL equivalency or “NHLe.”
What is NHLe? NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2023-24 season data.
From there, as before, I made modest adjustments based on factors known to be linked to prospect success rates, including (1) re-draft status, (2) age, and (3) height. For reasons discussed in my preseason post, I also made a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring draft-eligible players playing in high-level professional leagues.
I then made three additional adjustments in producing this final list. First, I made a change based on positional value, i.e., forward versus defense. I made a small adjustment to account for this in my previous rankings, but, after some research, I determined these adjustments were too conservative and undervalued the scoring provided by defensemen.
Second, I made a very small upward edit for players who provided value to team goal scoring and suppression of goal scoring against by comparing on-ice plus-minus against team off-ice plus-minus. Third, I also made a very small upward adjustment for players who contributed to a high percentage of their team’s overall goal scoring–whether by scoring the goal itself or assisting on it. These changes are based on the same logic underlying win share and game score metrics.
The 2024 NHL Draft “data score” ranking
After all of the aforementioned adjustments, I arrived at an adjusted NHLe number. This number no longer projects NHL scoring but is (hopefully) useful in comparing the relative strength of prospects. I then normalized these numbers so that the top-ranked skater prospect (spoiler: It’s Macklin Celebrini) would have a score of 100. This final output I call the prospect’s “data score,” and I used it to rank skater prospects in the 2024 NHL Draft.
You can find the full list–8096 players long–in a Google Sheet here.
Important note on using the data-only ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 3, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Note that I only “ranked” players who played at least 15 games in the club league in which they played the most games. I left the other unranked players on the spreadsheet, ordered by their data score, because there are some interesting ones. For example, Aron Kiviharju was thought of as a first-round pick coming into the year, but missed most of the season with an injury. His data score based on the few games he did play would support a late-second- or early-third-round pick, but I didn’t “rank” him at that level because of the limited sample size.
Here are the skaters that rank within the top two rounds (the top 65) based on data score:
Data score also helps us see that there is a ton of value at the very top of the draft, but it levels out fairly quickly from there, settling into a gradual decline that persists for the remainder of the draft. This reminds us that not all “first-round picks” are the same. This year, this data score approach sees only a few elite prospects that separate themselves from the pack.
Expanding our view out to the top-two rounds you get an even stronger sense of the value at the top.
Beyond Celebrini, the value in this draft appears to be in a group of four defensemen–Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh, Artyom Levshunov, and Sam Dickinson. If any one is available to the Kraken at No. 8, it would be a good pick.
Looking at relative league strength
We can also look at which leagues have the most players and the most valuable individuals that qualify as “draftable” by our data score approach. Limiting our list to the top 225 skater prospects, the OHL has the most with 39, followed by the WHL with 36 and the USHL with 35. Interestingly, the QMJHL has fewer than half as many as its CHL counterparts with only 17. If the U.S. National Team Development Program were combined with the other USHL teams (because it does play a partial USHL schedule), that group together would have the most players, overtaking the OHL.
Judging by total data score of each league’s players in the top 225, again the OHL comes out ahead, followed by the WHL and USHL. Though again fifth in the ranking, data score further emphasizes QMJHL’s relative weakness, showing that it projects to deliver prospects only (approximately) one-third as valuable as their OHL counterparts in this draft.
Addressing a few closing questions
Any surprises in the rankings? Trevor Connelly stands out positively in this ranking, but I should take a moment to underscore there are no qualitative (or “off ice”) adjustments in play here. If I were publishing my personal ranking, I’d have Connelly lower.
Conversely, I’d have Ivan Demidov a bit higher because I know his data profile is hurt a bit by a handful of lean ice time KHL games. This data score ranking doesn’t account for time on ice because many leagues do not make it available.
Finally, Anton Silayev is bound to be lower than many expect, but it should be noted again that this ranking is built on scoring data. And even when adjusting Silayev’s KHL production upward as I have done for other low-scoring prospects playing in professional leagues, his scoring is not his primary appeal.
Where are the goalies? As you have noticed, this is a skater-only list built on scoring data. After some effort, I haven’t settled on a theoretically sound method to compare skater and goalie prospects. In the meantime, while that effort is ongoing, I do plan to publish a list that ranks the goalies available in the 2024 NHL Draft against each other based on their quantifiable measures.
It should be noted that many in the scouting community believe that there is not a goalie worthy of a top-100 pick in this year’s draft, so the list above is probably a fair snapshot of the top prospects available.
Are you still doing the Sound Of Hockey Big Board? Yes! Final draft rankings are only just now starting to be published. As in years past, we intend to compile a composite “Big Board” of as many credible rankings as we can.
* * *
Thank you for reading. This project is more time consuming than any other I do for Sound Of Hockey each year. If you have any questions, feedback, or ideas for future directions, please don’t hesitate to write in the comments below or on Twitter @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Welcome to the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season edition). Later in this post, we’ll also get into a mid-season update on the 2024 NHL Draft “data-only” top prospects ranking, which we published initially in the preseason.
What is the Big Board? It’s a composite ranking of 2024 NHL Draft-eligible prospects based on reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists. Put differently, it’s a list designed to provide the current, mid-season “public consensus” on the top players in the draft.
To build the Big Board we used mid-season ranking lists from Central Scouting, Bob McKenzie (TSN), Corey Pronman (The Athletic), Scott Wheeler (The Athletic), Steven Ellis (Daily Faceoff), Elite Prospects, and Scouching. Good-Friend-of-the-Pod Chris Peters’ mid-season list came out after I compiled the rankings. This version of the Big Board is skaters only. If you’re interested in how we do this, we explained it all here.
We published the Sound Of Hockey Big Board in advance of the 2022 Draft and the 2023 Draft. This is the first time we’re also doing an earlier mid-season check-in. To be clear, though, the intention is to return before the draft with the full, final version based on final draft lists, just as we have done in the past.
In the interim, we wanted to use this mid-season list to kick off expanded draft coverage here at Sound Of Hockey. In some form or another, we expect to be able to deliver data and scouting videos on the vast majority of the top prospects in the 2024 NHL Draft. Keep tabs with Sound Of Hockey for further updates on that.
The 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season edition)
You can find the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season version) in Google Sheets HERE.
Important note on using the Sound Of Hockey Big Board: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Here is a snapshot of top-64 prospects in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, sorted by the overall composite rank:
Rank
Name
Team
League
Birthdate
Height
Weight
Pos
Shot
Re-Draft?
1
Macklin Celebrini
Boston Univ.
NCAA
6/13/2006
72
190
C
L
2
Artyom Levshunov
Michigan State Univ.
NCAA
10/28/2005
74
208
D
R
3
Ivan Demidov
SKA-1946 St. Petersburg
MHL
12/10/2005
71
181
RW
L
4
Anton Silayev
Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod
KHL
4/11/2006
79
211
D
L
5
Cayden Lindstrom
Medicine Hat Tigers
WHL
2/3/2006
75.25
210
C
L
6
Cole Eiserman
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
8/29/2006
71.75
197
LW
L
7
Sam Dickinson
London Knights
OHL
6/7/2006
74.75
204
D
L
8
Berkly Catton
Spokane Chiefs
WHL
1/14/2006
70.75
170
C
L
9
Konsta Helenius
Jukurit
Liiga
5/11/2006
70.75
180
C
R
10
Zayne Parekh
Saginaw Spirit
OHL
2/15/2006
72
178
D
R
11
Zeev Buium
Univ. of Denver
NCAA
12/7/2005
72
183
D
L
12
Trevor Connelly
Tri-City Storm
USHL
2/28/2006
72.75
156
LW
L
13
Carter Yakemchuk
Calgary Hitmen
WHL
9/29/2005
74.75
190
D
R
14
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard
Mora IK
Hockey Allsvenskan
10/5/2005
73
198
RW
R
15
Adam Jiricek
HC Plzeň
Czechia
6/28/2006
74.5
178
D
R
16
Tij Iginla
Kelowna Rockets
WHL
8/4/2006
71.75
186
C
L
17
Liam Greentree
Windsor Spitfires
OHL
1/1/2006
74.5
211
RW
L
18
Igor Chernyshov
Dynamo Moskva
KHL
11/30/2005
74
192
LW
R
19
Beckett Sennecke
Oshawa Generals
OHL
1/28/2006
74.25
175
RW
R
20
Nikita Artamonov
Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod
KHL
11/17/2005
71
187
LW
L
21
Ryder Ritchie
Prince Albert Raiders
WHL
8/3/2006
71.75
175
RW
R
22
Sacha Boisvert
Muskegon Lumberjacks
USHL
3/17/2006
74
178
C
L
23
Emil Hemming
TPS
Liiga
6/27/2006
72.75
201
RW
R
24
Aron Kiviharju
HIFK
Liiga
1/25/2006
69.25
170
D
L
25
Andrew Basha
Medicine Hat Tigers
WHL
11/8/2005
71.25
184
LW
L
26
Michael Hage
Chicago Steel
USHL
4/14/2006
72.5
190
C
R
27
Charlie Elick
Brandon Wheat Kings
WHL
1/17/2006
75.25
200
D
R
28
Tanner Howe
Regina Pats
WHL
11/28/2005
69.75
182
LW
L
29
Cole Beaudoin
Barrie Colts
OHL
4/24/2006
73.75
209
C
L
30
Cole Hutson
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
6/28/2006
70.25
165
D
L
31
Dean Letourneau
2/21/2006
78
210
C
R
32
Alfons Freij
Växjö Lakers HC J20
J-20 Nationell
2/12/2006
72.5
187
D
L
33
Matvei Shuravin
Krasnaya Armiya Moskva
MHL
3/22/2006
75
195
D
L
34
EJ Emery
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
3/30/2006
75
185
D
R
35
Adam Jecho
Edmonton Oil Kings
WHL
3/24/2006
76.75
201
C
R
36
Leo Sahlin Wallenius
Växjö Lakers HC J20
J-20 Nationell
4/10/2006
71.5
176
D
L
37
Terik Parascak
Prince George Cougars
WHL
5/28/2006
71.5
176
RW
R
38
Dominik Badinka
Malmö Redhawks
SHL
11/27/2005
75
183
D
R
39
Luke Misa
Mississauga Steelheads
OHL
11/25/2005
70
175
C
L
40
Miguel Marques
Lethbridge Hurricanes
WHL
3/8/2006
70.5
173
RW
R
41
Henry Mews
Ottawa 67’s
OHL
3/9/2006
72
183
D
R
42
Maxim Masse
Chicoutimi Saguenéens
QMJHL
4/7/2006
73.75
192
RW
R
43
Matvei Gridin
Muskegon Lumberjacks
USHL
3/1/2006
73
185
RW
L
44
Jett Luchanko
Guelph Storm
OHL
8/21/2006
70.75
185
C
R
45
Leon Muggli
EV Zug
NL
7/9/2006
71.75
165
D
L
46
Tomas Galvas
Bílí Tygři Liberec
Czechia
2/11/2006
70.5
148
D
L
47
Jesse Pulkkinen
JYP U20
U20 SM-sarja
12/27/2004
78
203
D
L
Y
48
Veeti Vaisanen
KooKoo
Liiga
2/15/2006
72
177
D
L
49
Yegor Surin
Loko Yaroslavl
MHL
8/1/2006
73
191
C
L
50
Ben Danford
Oshawa Generals
OHL
2/6/2006
73
194
D
R
51
Stian Solberg
Vålerenga
Norway
12/29/2005
74
196
D
L
52
Will Skahan
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
5/14/2006
76
211
D
L
53
John Mustard
Waterloo Black Hawks
USHL
8/16/2006
72.5
184
C
L
54
Lucas Pettersson
MoDo Hockey J20
J-20 Nationell
4/17/2006
71
168
C
L
55
Simon Zether
Rögle BK
SHL
10/18/2005
75
186
C
R
56
Marek Vanacker
Brantford Bulldogs
OHL
4/12/2006
72.5
175
LW
L
57
Kamil Bednarik
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
5/26/2006
72
186
C
L
58
Raoul Boilard
Baie-Comeau Drakkar
QMJHL
1/7/2006
73.25
184
C
L
59
Teddy Stiga
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
4/5/2006
69.5
177
C
L
60
Sam O’Reilly
London Knights
OHL
3/30/2006
73
186
RW
R
61
Ondrej Kos
KOOVEE
Mestis
3/7/2006
74
167
LW
L
62
Julius Miettinen
Everett Silvertips
WHL
1/20/2006
74.75
205
C
L
63
Spencer Gill
Rimouski Océanic
QMJHL
8/17/2006
75.75
185
D
R
64
Christian Humphreys
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
2/4/2006
70.75
170
C
R
Mid-season 2024 NHL Draft “data-only” top prospects ranking
As mentioned at the top of this article, we also updated our preseason “data-only” ranking of top NHL prospects. This is a fundamentally different project than the Big Board. It is not built on the scouting lists of others. Instead it is a list compiled solely from player data (specifically, scoring production, league, age, size, and position).
As we have explained in earlier posts, we have built this ranking using an NHL equivalency (or “NHLe”) calculation applied to the player’s 2023-24 season scoring points. We then make modest adjustments based on factors known to be linked to prospect success rates, including (1) re-draft status, (2) age, and (3) height. On average, a six-foot-two winger who scores at the same rate as a five-foot-seven winger in junior hockey is more likely to contribute at the NHL level. Likewise, a player who scores a point per game as an 18-year-old in his league is more likely to become an NHL regular than a player who reaches that threshold for the first time as a 21-year-old. Finally, we then made a modest adjustment to bump up the ranking of (1) defensemen relative to forwards and (2) a small handful of low-producing players playing in top professional leagues.
So, without further ado, you can find the mid-season 2024 NHL Draft “data-only” top prospects ranking in Google Sheets HERE.
Important note on using the data-only ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Curious how the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season edition) compares with a data-only list? We were too. Here are the top 40 first-time draft eligible players on the Big Board, listed in rank order with a comparison to their data-only rank order.
For example, while Macklin Celebrini is No. 1 on both lists, Artyom Levshunov is No. 2 on the Big Board but No. 6 in the data-only ranking. Konsta Helenius, by contrast, is No. 9 on the Big Board but No. 4 in the data-only ranking.
This is a way to see graphically which players are relatively higher ranked by scouts and which players are relatively favored by a data-only look. Whichever approach you prefer, it stands out that there is a good deal of consensus between the scouts and the data at the top.
We were also curious to look at which players have risen in the data-only rankings since the preseason rankings (which were based on 2022-23 season data). Here is a chart of the top 35 players in the mid-season data-only ranking, listed in rank order, with comparison to their preseason ranking.
Macklin Celebrini has been a steady No. 1 prospect based on the data alone. And none of the top 10 in the mid-season data ranking “came out of nowhere” from the preseason version. After that, though, you see a number of new players jumping into the mix with breakout 2023-24 seasons. It underscores what we said in the preseason post: The 18-year-old draft year tends to be a huge development year and reveals a lot about the pro potential of a prospect.
***
As we said, keep it here for more draft coverage this spring. What would you like to see us cover? What questions do you have? Feel free to contact us in the comments here or on X (formerly known as Twitter).
Header photo of Berkly Catton by Larry Brunt, courtesy of the Spokane Chiefs.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
While the Kansas City Chiefs were electrifying the world with their Super Bowl win on Sunday night, we were thinking about a different kind of “Chiefs” team, specifically a key player on the Spokane Chiefs of the Western Hockey League. Berkly Catton, a player who has the speed and agility of Patrick Mahomes and the ability to always find open space like Travis Kelce, is making a case to hear his name called early at the 2024 NHL Draft.
A native of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Catton spends most of his summers just like any other Canadian kid with NHL aspirations: shooting pucks. The 18-year-old said he takes pride in the amount that goes into working on his shot and how he’s been able to translate that to the WHL.
“I spend a lot of my summers just shooting pucks, learning that it’s not easy to score goals in this league,” Catton said. “I think by doing that I’ve taken my shot to the next level.”
The forward leads the Chiefs with 38 goals on the season, good for fourth in the league. “I’m getting to scoring areas a lot better with the maturity and confidence I have in myself. It’s about growing my game, and it’s been growing quite a lot lately.”
Catton appears on the highlight reel almost every night for the Chiefs and got them on the board twice last Friday against the Tri-City Americans. His first goal was a display of his spatial recognition and passing instincts. It was a goal he said he had “blind confidence” on in his celebration, as no one knew initially the puck was in the net. The goal was confirmed minutes later.
Catton tries to emulate some of the most skilled NHLers to separate himself from other prospects and create open ice. “[I watched] players growing up that had a similar style game I strive to play.” Catton used Jack Hughes as an example of a player he looks up to. “Seeing how they do it, and then implementing that into my game. I think I’m a player that can see those opportunities unfold on the ice, then execute very quickly and quite well.”
While he is on the shorter end for a forward at 5-foot-11, Catton more than makes up for it with his hands and his hockey sense and his explosiveness that allows him to create odd-man opportunities for himself.
He showed off this explosiveness with another highlight on Friday evening with his second goal of the contest. Bolting to support linemate Connor Roulette on a 2-on-1 rush, Roulette found Catton open once he caught up. Catton made a dazzling move down low on Americans goalie Lukas Matecha, a shorthanded goal that extended the Chiefs lead to 4-1.
“I pride myself on my ability to accelerate,” Catton said about how his speed would translate professionally. “Lots goes into having elite-caliber speed, but ultimately it’s about that want and drive to score that a lot of the top-level players have, and I think I have that.”
Catton’s knack to find the open ice, then make smart adjustments on the fly will entice teams with a need for more dynamic offensive players.
Chiefs head coach Ryan Smith had high praise for Catton as well. “He’s simply electric,” Smith said. “One of the best there is in this league, if not the best. His edge work is great, he gets around guys and really controls the puck well.”
For a younger, 2006-born player, it was surprising to hear the list of players Catton rattled off when reminiscing about some of his childhood favorites.
Berkly Catton takes the ice. (Photo/Larry Brunt, Spokane Chiefs)
“There’s so many options, but I probably liked watching Pavel Datsyuk and Sergei Federov the best growing up,” Catton recalled. “Those two were some of the best at creating space and making the most insane plays. Sidney Crosby too, with me being a smaller guy like him, and seeing how well he protects the puck. I have been trying to emulate them as best I can for a long time.”
A budding leader
Another asset of Catton’s game would be his leadership abilities. Of course, he leads the Chiefs statistically in goals, assists, and points (38-44=84), but he is also one of Spokane’s alternate captains and was a captain at this year’s Kubota CHL Top Prospects game in Moncton, New Brunswick.
He has the qualities of making his linemates better while making himself better along the way. “He wants to be the guy to make the plays when he has the puck,” Smith said. “He’s got that confidence about him where he knows that the sky’s the limit, and he’s just going to continue getting better and better.”
Now the main question. Where could Catton end up landing? Most draft rankings have him getting selected in or around the top 10, with the biggest knock on his game being his size. Columbus, Buffalo, Montreal or Minnesota are a few teams bound for a top-10 pick that could use the help to diversify their offensive attack in the ways that Catton can provide.
We do also wonder if the Seattle Kraken might grab Catton, should he be available when they select. The super-skilled forward does fit an organizational need for Seattle, which has shown a penchant for drafting locally, with three prospects playing in the U.S. Division this season. Having that high-end prospect developing in your backyard could be beneficial for both the organization and the player.
While size and physicality features on Catton don’t strike many as appealing, his strong work ethic, offense generation, and elite, game-wrecking instincts may be too good to pass up. Whichever team has the opportunity of drafting him will be getting a developed hockey mind.
Header photo by Larry Brunt, courtesy of the Spokane Chiefs.
