It’s officially draft week here at Sound Of Hockey. While the Seattle Kraken made waves over the weekend by trading for Mackie Samoskevich and re-signing Bobby McMann to a five-year, $34.5 million contract, they also must now quickly shift their attention to how they will continue to stockpile young prospects into the organization.
You can expect a wave of information and articles leading up to the draft that kicks off Friday, but before that, I thought it would be a good opportunity to check in on how the Seattle Kraken have drafted to date, class by class.
I’m going to attempt to be as objective as possible, which can be challenging. Evaluating a draft class for an individual team is tricky because there are so many variables at play. I tend to look at games played, points, and goals and compare those metrics with historical averages for similar picks and player positions. To get some sense of expectations for each player, I compare them to numbers for players drafted in the same cohort and look at NHL games played, points, and goals in relation to their draft year.
That only goes so far, though, since most of the prospects haven’t played NHL games. That is where the subjectivity needs to come into play. I’ll share more of this as I go, but to illustrate expectations, here is a look at the average games played by round selected in the draft by season from draft.
There’s significant variability within the first round itself, with top‑five selections historically producing far more impact than picks later in the round. Beyond that, the gaps between rounds narrow considerably. Because first‑rounders carry the highest expectations, their outcomes weigh more heavily in my evaluation of each draft class.
What adds to this complexity is that not all drafts are created equal, and a first‑round pick in one year might not carry the same value as the exact same pick the following year. Bottom line, no evaluation criteria can be perfect.
Also important to note: I will not do revisionist history where I criticize the Kraken for not picking “player X” who was taken immediately after their selection, implying they “missed.” An example is Lane Hutson, who was picked No. 62 in the 2022 NHL Draft, one spot after the Kraken selected David Goyette. It’s obvious the Kraken would rather have Hutson at this point, but as The Athletic pointed out, Hutson would likely be drafted in the top five in a re‑draft, knowing what we know now. That would imply 27 teams missed him, including Montreal twice, since the Canadiens had the 26th and 33rd picks in that draft. That kind of logic doesn’t really tell us anything useful about Seattle’s process, so I won’t be doing it.
I will also not be evaluating goalies. Their path to the NHL is longer, less predictable, and far more variable than that of skaters, which makes early assessments unreliable. The Kraken have drafted four goalies to date, and while each has shown encouraging signs, it will take several more seasons before we can meaningfully evaluate their NHL potential.
2021 Seattle Kraken draft class
The Kraken’s first draft class was also the only one in which they had only their original picks—no more, no less.
They drafted second overall and selected Matty Beniers. Although there has been some narrative that he might not be the true No. 1 center the fanbase was anticipating, he is still a very solid NHL player. Comparing him against top‑drafted first‑rounders between 2005 and 2020, he looks average for his draft cohort, but when you compare him against the top 10 forwards selected in his draft, he looks above average. It’s also worth noting that he looks better when compared to the two other forwards selected in the top five of his draft year: Mason McTavish and Kent Johnson. The disconnect between those two charts implies it wasn’t a great draft class at the very top.
Overall, the team did great in selecting Matty second overall in this draft, but where they really excelled was with their later‑round picks.
Through the 2025 season, the Kraken have the third‑most NHL games played from their 2021 draft class. Ryker Evans, Ryan Winterton, and Jacob Melanson were contributors for the Kraken last season, which is a remarkable hit rate considering they were all selected after the first round. An argument could be made about whether these players would be in the lineup on a stronger team, and that’s debatable. But for now, they are far exceeding expectations based on their draft positions.
As for the other players drafted in 2021, it is not certain if Ville Ottavainen will spend the bulk of his pro career in the NHL. Semyon Vyazovoi had a very good season in the Kontinental Hockey League last year and is expected to play in North America next season. Justin Janicke is unlikely to play in the NHL, but that was always the case for any player selected after the second round.
With the solid performance of Beniers in relation to his draft‑class peer group and the production from their second‑and‑later‑round picks, I give this draft class a B+.
2022 Seattle Kraken draft class
There is probably no Kraken‑drafted player more controversial than Shane Wright, and that’s what makes evaluating this draft class tricky, even before we get to the other players.
After a slow start, Wright appeared to be on the right path in his third season since his draft year. After starting the season a little cold, he showed a lot of promise over the 2024‑25 NHL season, posting 19 goals and 25 assists. That put him slightly above average in his peer group and among the top 10 drafted forwards from his draft class.
The problem was last season. His production not only failed to keep pace with his expected trajectory based on his draft position, it dropped. There are plenty of examples of players bouncing back from a dip in production at this point in their development cycle, but as of now, Wright has fallen short of expectations.
As for the rest of the draft class, there are some promising chips on the roulette table, but we still don’t know how any of these players will fare in the NHL. Jani Nyman showcased extremely well at the tail end of the 2024‑25 season but looked overwhelmed when he started the 2025‑26 season with the Kraken. He was reassigned to Coachella Valley in December and only got four more games with the Kraken after the Olympic break.
The narrative about Nyman when he was drafted was that he has a booming shot but isn’t a great skater, and that still holds based on last season’s views. The jury is still out on whether he can be an everyday NHLer.
Jagger Firkus had an excellent season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds, but an injury late in the season prevented him from getting NHL games toward the end of the Kraken season to see if his game can translate to the top level. I expect him to play some games in the NHL next season, but we still don’t know if he will make it as a regular.
As for the rest of the class, Tyson Jugnauth and Ty Nelson are the next best bets to make the NHL. Based on their draft positions, they were longshots to make it, but both have improved their odds based on their play last season. It’s important to note that defensemen tend to be a little bit older compared to forwards when they break into the NHL, so even if they don’t stick next season, that should not be cause for alarm.
As promising as this draft class seemed a year ago, I have no choice but to give it a C based on the production and trajectory we saw last season.
2023 Seattle Kraken draft class
Three years really isn’t enough of a runway for this kind of assessment, but we’re going to do it anyway.
Late‑ish first‑round picks are not guaranteed to be regular NHLers, but it is impossible to ignore that Eduard Šalé’s trajectory has been very disappointing. Šalé is still likely to play in the NHL someday, but except for the occasional streak of games here and there, his performance has been underwhelming for a first‑round draft pick. He had 13 goals and 14 assists in his second AHL season last year, which is not bad, but you would expect more out of a first‑round pick in his third season since the draft.
Of the second‑round picks from this draft class, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard is ahead of schedule. Mølgaard’s strength is his two‑way game, which should translate to the NHL a bit quicker and allow coaches to trust him more. He was called up for 13 games with the Kraken this season and seemed to gain confidence with each game.
The rest of the picks seem to be tracking fine based on their draft positions, with several of them having only one season of North American pro hockey under their belts. In short, it is much too early to draw any firm conclusions on them.
I give this draft class a generous B‑, but it is more realistically an incomplete, since we don’t have enough information to give a true grade.
2024 Seattle Kraken draft class
Like the 2023 draft class, it is too early to give a final grade here, but Berkly Catton spending the full season in the NHL and showing progression inside the season is very encouraging for Kraken fans. He didn’t put up big numbers, but there were signs of the elite talent you want and hope for out of a top‑10 draft pick.
Both Julius Miettinen and Nathan Villeneuve had monster years for their respective junior teams. That is no guarantee of success in the NHL, but you want to see progression from season to season regardless of the league, and they delivered.
Meanwhile, Oliver Josephson, Clarke Caswell, and Jakub Fibigr had good years for their respective teams. Josephson and Caswell made the jump to the NCAA last season and adjusted well to the structured and often heavier game of college hockey. Fibigr, who has always been a longshot to make the NHL, is taking another step in his career this coming season and will be headed to Ohio State, which should help his development.
I am giving this draft class a B+ because most of the players have taken a step in the right direction, and that’s all you can hope for at this point in their development cycle.
2025 Seattle Kraken draft class
Way, way too early on this one.
Jake O’Brien had a very good season in the OHL and is likely headed to Coachella Valley next season. Blake Fiddler is another Kraken prospect headed to the NCAA next season, where he will play for the University of Denver.
After already giving “incompletes” to the 2023 and 2024 draft classes, I have to give this one an incomplete as well.
Overall
Like all teams’ draft classes, there will be hits and there will be misses, and it is hard to say definitively yet whether the Kraken have true hits or misses. The strength of the Kraken prospect pool is really the volume of prospects in it. Will they find gold with one of their non‑first‑round picks popping off to become a high‑end NHL player? We don’t know, but the more swings you have, the better your odds of really connecting on one and hitting it out of the park.
My overall grade for their draft classes through five years is a solid B, with some potential to upgrade to an A… or even slip into the C category.
The Everett Silvertips cruised through the first round of the Western Hockey League playoffs, defeating the Portland Winterhawks in four games.
They have had their sights set on the Memorial Cup in Kelowna since the puck dropped on the 2025-26 season.
But now, in order to get to Kelowna for the tournament, they will have to go through Kelowna, the team, as they are set to face the Rockets in the second round.
— xyz – Everett Silvertips (@WHLsilvertips) April 6, 2026
Tons of future NHL talent will be on display this series, with a total of 12 players combined from both teams affiliated with NHL clubs. A normal series may have somewhere in the three-to-five range of affiliated prospects.
From Kelowna, that’s Tomas Poletin (NYI), Tij Iginla (UTAH), Carson Wetsch (SJS), Vojtech Cihar (LAK), Kanjyu Gojsic (NSH), Parker Alcos (VAN), and Peyton Kettles (PIT)
From Everett, it’s Carter Bear (DET), Julius Miettinen (SEA), Shea Busch (FLA), Tarin Smith (ANA), and Luke Vlooswyk (PHI).
Add in Landon DuPont, Brek Liske, and other future draft eligibles, it’s looking to be a promising series from a talent standpoint.
But before we get to the series ahead, let’s look back at the series that was for the Silvertips versus the Portland Winterhawks, and then we’ll get to what to expect from this star-studded series against the Rockets.
Recapping Round 1
This series was dominated by Everett from the start. Just 1:37 into Game 1, the Winterhawks were already playing catch-up with the Silvertips scoring twice early.
From there, Everett, the No. 1 overall seed in the WHL playoffs, was just flat out dominant. They rattled off wins in four straight games en route to a sweep, outscoring Portland 25-5 and avenging the playoffs losses at the Winterhawks’ hands the prior two seasons.
Despite gaining back Shea Busch, who had missed the majority of the season from an upper-body injury, the Silvertips lost Tarin Smith to an injury he suffered along the end boards early in Game 4. There is no word yet on Smith’s status heading into the second round.
Looking at Round 2
Now, a look at the opponent: the Kelowna Rockets are on a mission — not just to compete for the Memorial Cup they will host, but to win the WHL championship and to be the ultimate Memorial Cup champs.
The last time a CHL team won the Memorial Cup as a host and winner of their own league was in 2005 when the London Knights hosted and won the OHL. The Rockets are looking to do the same this season, but it’s going to be a tall task.
The Rockets are led offensively by Utah Mammoth first-rounder Tij Iginla. The former Seattle Thunderbird returned from injury and a stint at the World Junior Championship and has recorded 90 points in 48 regular-season games. He is currently tied for second in the playoffs with 10 points.
Everett drew a hard hand with this series being early on, but with the way things have been going for the team that’s lost just eight games all year, this is a great series to find out what the Silvertips are made of and if they have what it takes to go the distance.
Everett player to watch in Round 2
Aside from the star players who light up the scoresheet every night, forward Jaxsin Vaughn was seemingly involved in nearly every scrum last series for Everett and delivered several big hits throughout.
Head coach Steve Hamilton admires the ferocity with which Vaughn plays.
“He knows exactly who he is and what he needs to do. He had four or five real punishing hits (during Game 2),” Hamilton said. “That’s part of the investment in the series, and for a guy like him, it’s not always gonna show up on the scoresheet what he brings.”
Header courtesy of Evan Morud and the Everett Silvertips
Welcome to Year 4 of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. As we did last year, we’re kicking off our NHL Draft coverage midway through the hockey season with a “mid-season” version of the Big Board.
What is the Big Board? It’s a composite ranking of 2026 NHL Draft–eligible prospects based on reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists—in this case, lists published midway through the season to account for draft-year performance. Put differently, it’s a list designed to provide the current, mid-season “public consensus” on the top players in the draft.
The Big Board does not contain any prospect-specific subjective assessments from us here at Sound Of Hockey. If you’d like a little more information on our methodology, check out our 2024 NHL Draft Big Board post.
We used the following nine sources to build the mid-season Big Board:
NHL Central Scouting just published its landmark midseason list last week, on Monday, Jan. 12. Some of the other sources referenced above are even more recent, while others date back about a month to December, 2025. It goes without saying that those earlier lists do not have the benefit of more recent gameplay or injury information. Accordingly, this list should be taken as only a rough approximation of a prospect’s current standing. Season-end lists are far more definitive.
As we progress through the remainder of the draft season, you can expect the same coverage you’ve come to know from us here at Sound Of Hockey in the past. Want our watchlist of prospects based on our “Data Score” method? We published a preseason version here, and we’ll have a final 2026 version for you soon after prospect regular seasons end.
We’ll then culminate our coverage with the final 2026 NHL Draft Big Board in June, as always.
The 2026 Sound Of Hockey Big Board – mid-season edition
All 411 players ranked by the nine sources above make up our mid-season Big Board. As you scroll across, you will see the rankings from the various sources we compiled. If a source ranking is behind a paywall, such as Scott Wheeler’s ranking for The Athletic, we have omitted it from the chart. We used those paywalled rankings to develop the composite list, but will not be sharing subscriber-only individual rankings.
Trends and takeaways
Overall, this draft appears to have more balance and depth than last year’s class, which skewed heavily toward Canadian junior forwards. The Big Board has nine Europeans within the top 32 overall prospects, whereas last year only three (including one surprise Russian goalie) were drafted in Round 1.
Six of the top 12 players on this Board are defensemen, whereas only two blueliners were drafted with the top 13 picks in 2025. Overall, there are 10 defensemen in the top 32 here. Only eight were drafted in the first round last year.
The talking point coming into the year was that this would be “The Gavin McKenna Draft.” Yet, a few months into a college hockey season that many have found uninspiring, McKenna has fallen behind fellow undersized winger Ivar Stenberg for the top spot in this mid-season snapshot.
McKenna is a perimeter player with some similar traits to his cousin Connor Bedard, and I think he is simply working through a higher level of competition earlier than Bedard did. As we have seen with Bedard at the NHL level, it can take time to rewire a junior-oriented skill game. Still, I haven’t seen enough to dislodge McKenna from the top spot personally, even if the gap has narrowed somewhat.
Ryan Roobroeck has piled up points in the OHL for three years now and has size to go with it, but analysts have soured on the prospect’s competitiveness and drive—to the extent that he barely factors into the first-round mix at this point. While McKenna’s fall from No. 1 is the most notable development, Roobroeck’s diving stock is likely the most disappointing storyline so far this season. (That said, it is very easy to imagine a team getting a steal with him or J.P. Hurlbert, another prolific junior scorer, late in the first round.)
A top goalie has not yet emerged in this class. Tobias Trejbal of the USHL’s Youngstown Phantoms is the highest-ranked netminder on the Big Board at No. 61 overall. Brady Knowling from the U.S. National Team Development Program, and Dmitri Borchev of the Russian junior league, appear to be in a similar tier. It will be interesting to track how the goalie market evolves over the next few months leading into the draft.
This year’s draft doesn’t have quite as much local flair as the last few drafts did. That said, there are several current and former players on Washington State’s WHL teams that project to be drafted, including Mathis Preston (who would be a steal at No. 18 in the draft), Jakub Vanecek (No. 48, Tri-City Americans), Chase Harrington (No. 68, Spokane Chiefs), Brek Liske (No. 82, Everett Silvertips), and Noah Kosick (No. 120, Seattle Thunderbirds).
* * *
If you have draft- or coverage-related questions, drop us a note below or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey or on Bluesky @deepseahockey or @soundofhockey.com.
Header photo: Chase Harrington of the Spokane Chiefs plays in a game against the Seattle Thunderbirds. Photo/Brian Liesse, courtesy of the Seattle Thunderbirds.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Welcome to the Sound Of Hockey NHL Draft Live Blog! The Seattle Kraken enter Day 2 of the NHL Draft with four picks—barring any trades, that’s the fewest selections they’ve had in any draft in their five-year history.
We’ll be updating this post throughout the day as the Kraken make their picks. The most recent updates will appear at the top, so scroll down if you want to catch up on earlier news.
If you missed Seattle’s first-round selection of Jake O’Brien on Friday, you can check out our profile on him here.
2:06 PM: Round 7 is complete and the draft is done
1:59 PM: The Seattle Kraken draft Loke Krantz
With their final pick in the NHL Draft, the Seattle Kraken selected another Swede, this time, it was Loke Krantz from the Linköping HC junior team. He tallied 12 goals and 5 assists in 44 games with the J20 squad.
1:36 PM: The Seattle Kraken draft Karl Annborn
With their first newly acquired draft pick, the Kraken selected defenseman Karl Annborn from the HV71 junior team. Annborn is considered a balanced defenseman with a broad set of skills. He recorded 3 goals and 21 assists last season while playing for the HV71 J20 team.
1:25 PM: Seattle Kraken trade their 7th round pick
The Kraken traded the 198th overall pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for the 205th and 218th picks, both seventh-rounders in this year’s draft.
1:18 PM: Round 6 is complete
Draft is flying right now. Here are the picks from Round 6.
12:48 PM: Round 5 is complete
12:18 PM The Seattle Kraken draft Russian defender Maxim Agafonov
For only the second time in franchise history, the Seattle Kraken selected a Russian player, taking Maxim Agafonov with the 134th overall pick (goalie Semyon Vyazovoy was the other one in 2021). He’s currently playing for Ufa’s junior team in the Russian junior league, where he posted 14 points in 35 games this past season.
12:22 AM: Round 4 is complete
11:22 AM: Round 3 is complete
The Spokane Chiefs made their first pick of the 2025 Draft when Owen Martin was selected 92nd overall by Winnipeg. Here is the rest of Round 4.
11:02 AM: Kraken second-round selection Blake Fiddler speaks to the media
Blake Fiddler spoke to the Seattle media via Zoom after being selected 36th overall. Here are a few quotes from his media availability.
“It’s an unbelievable feeling, such a great organization. I couldn’t be happier to go to a team that seems like they wanted me, and I couldn’t be more thankful.
“A little bit emotional the past couple days, but it’s awesome to finally be picked.”
“I’m a rangy, two-way D-man that skates really well, especially for my size. I think that I use my legs all over the ice, I defend, good gaps, I can play heavy minutes, shut down top teams, and I have skills, so I’m able to use it offensively.”
10:31 AM: The Kraken select Will Reynolds
Will Reynolds is one of the younger players in this draft class, with an August birthday. He’s considered a shutdown defenseman with plenty of upside. He currently plays for the Acadie-Bathurst Titan in the QMJHL, though the team is relocating to Newfoundland next season. He had 4 goals and 14 assists last season.
With the 68th pick overall in the 2025 @NHL Draft the #SeaKraken select Will Reynolds.
Fiddler is a big defenseman for the Edmonton Oil Kings. He is the son of former NHLer Vernon Fiddler. Most analysts had Fiddler ranked late in the first round.
9:26 AM: We have a Seattle Kraken trade!!!
The Seattle Kraken traded the 36th and the 68th overall pick to the Philadelphia Flyers for the 36th and 38th pick. All picks are part of this draft.
As of now, the Kraken have four picks to start the day. Here is how they are distributed.
8:50 AM: T-minus 10 minutes until the start of Day 2
We’re back for Rounds 2 through 7 of the 2025 NHL Draft! If you missed last night’s four-hour-plus production, here are a few quick tidbits to get you up to speed.
The Seattle Kraken selected Jake O’Brien, marking the fourth time they’ve drafted a center in the first round in their five-year history. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one scouring the internet for highlight reels of O’Brien—here’s one of my favorites:
The Seattle Thunderbirds had a big night with two players taken in the first round: Radim Mrtka (9th overall) and Braeden Cootes (15th). The last time Seattle had two first-rounders was back in 2022, when Kevin Korchinski (7) and Reid Schaefer (32) were picked.
The CHL led the way with 21 players selected in the first round, the league’s strongest showing since 2013.
Canada was well represented too, with 20 Canadian-born players drafted in the opening round, the most in a first round since all the way back in 1987.
As for surprises? There weren’t many. Most players went right around where public rankings had them pegged.
Not draft related, but another piece of big news was that Philipp Grubauer will not be bought out.
Jason Botterill just confirmed that Philipp Grubauer will be back next season. #SeaKraken
We’re at that point in the season when the Seattle Kraken are playing games that no longer have playoff implications. I still enjoy tuning in, but it’s undeniably more fun when they win or battle hard in close contests.
The decreasing importance of the games got us at Sound Of Hockey thinking about how to prevent tanking in the NHL—the act of deliberately icing a subpar roster in hopes of losing and landing a higher draft pick.
Let’s walk through the pros and cons of tanking, and explore some ideas to prevent it.
NHL Entry Draft
Prior to the 1995-96 season, draft position was solely based on the previous season’s standings. The last-place team automatically got the first pick, effectively rewarding teams for tanking. So in 1995, the NHL introduced the draft lottery to curb that trend.
Today, all 16 non-playoff teams are entered into the draft lottery. The last-place team has a 25.5 percent chance at the first overall pick, with the odds decreasing incrementally up to the 17th-place team, which has a 0.5 percent chance. However, teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots. So, for example, if the 14th-place team is drawn first, they only jump to the fourth overall pick, and the last-place team retains the first overall selection.
Two lottery draws are made: one for the first overall pick and one for the second. The remaining picks are slotted in based on the final standings.
This system is designed to help teams at the bottom rebuild by drafting the top players. A key benefit is that it adds unpredictability to the draft order, keeping hope alive for teams just outside the playoffs. But the downside is clear: bottom teams still have the best odds, and teams that barely miss the playoffs often end up stuck in the murky middle.
Rewarded for losing
Under the current system, the last-place team is guaranteed a top-three pick and holds the best odds to land the first overall selection. It’s an improvement over the pre-lottery format, but the core issue remains: the worst teams are still rewarded more than those who narrowly miss the playoffs.
The Kraken have yet to pick first overall in their young history, but they’ve benefited from the system. In their inaugural season, a postponed game, originally scheduled for April 13, against the Winnipeg Jets was rescheduled to May 1—after the NHL playoffs had already begun. The Kraken held a 3-1 lead after two periods, but Winnipeg stormed back with three goals in 4:16 to win 4-3. It looked like a meaningless game, but the outcome mattered. A Kraken win would have meant finishing 28th; a loss placed them 29th. That one loss kept them below the Philadelphia Flyers and ahead of them in the draft order. The New Jersey Devils eventually won the second lottery draw, bumping Seattle to the fourth overall pick.
With the fourth overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, the Kraken selected Shane Wright. Had they won that final game, they would have picked fifth, and Wright might be wearing orange as a Philadelphia Flyer. As of March 25, Wright leads all 2022 first-round picks in career points per 60 minutes at 2.481. Logan Cooley ranks second at 2.410.
I’m not saying Seattle tanked during its inaugural season—playoff expectations were high after Vegas’s expansion success—but it’s a good example of how losing can still be rewarded under the current system.
Burn Point Threshold
I love the competitive nature of hockey and want teams to strive for wins without being penalized for it. While the current lottery discourages blatant tanking, it still rewards losing and punishes late-season wins, leaving teams stuck between integrity and draft position.
Enter the Burn Point Threshold, or BPT—a system I created to eliminate tanking incentives while still supporting struggling teams.
Under BPT, all 16 non-playoff teams enter the draft lottery with equal odds—one entry each, no weighted balls, no rewards for finishing lower. The draft order is then shaped by a point-based threshold.
Here’s how it works:
Each non-playoff team is assigned “burn points” (BP) on a sliding scale based on standings: 32nd place gets one point, 31st gets two points, 30th gets three points, and so on up to 17th place, which gets 16 points.
The lottery draws teams at random, one at a time.
As teams are drawn, their burn points are subtracted from a 16-point threshold.
Once the burn total reaches or exceeds 16, the lottery ends.
The drawn teams receive the top picks in the order selected. Remaining teams are slotted in by reverse standings starting after the last lottery pick. In this system, the number of lottery picks is dynamic. If a playoff bubble team draws the first overall pick, the draft ends sooner, allowing lower teams to still get decent selections. But if teams near the bottom of the standings are drawn, the lottery continues until the point threshold is met or exceeded. This levels the playing field by giving equal odds to all non-playoff teams, reducing the incentive to finish last.
Burn Point Threshold examples
Here are a couple of examples of how a draft could play out:
Let’s say the 24th-place team (nine BP), the 27th-place team (six BP), and the 31st-place team (two BP) are drawn. That adds up to 17 burn points—lottery over. Those teams pick first, second, and third in the order they were drawn. The 32nd-place team would pick fourth overall.
In a separate scenario, the 17th-place team (16 BP) hits on the first draw. The lottery ends immediately. That team picks first overall, and the rest of the draft proceeds in reverse standings order, starting with the 32nd-place team picking second overall.
Data for Burn Point Threshold
We simulated 10,000 draft lotteries to test fairness and function.
In BPT, every non-playoff team has an equal shot at the first overall pick. But since the lottery ends at 16 burn points, the two last-place teams never will get less than a sixth overall pick and 99.3 percent of the time will get a top-five pick. It’s not a flat-odds system—it’s a fair-odds system.
Here are the percentages for each pick in the 10,000 draft simulations.
Pros of Burn Point Threshold
The BPT model brings a dynamic element to the draft process, introducing an increased level of unpredictability while ensuring teams aren’t penalized for competing and winning. All non-playoff teams start on equal footing while still guaranteeing the last-place team a top-six pick through the burn point structure.
It strikes a balance between fairness and function—every team gets a chance, but those who struggled still have an opportunity to land a high pick. The result is a draft system that rewards effort and maintains meaningful competition until the final horn of the season.
Tweaking the BPT model
One of the strengths of the Burn Point Threshold (BPT) system is its flexibility. The core structure—equal odds, a point-based cutoff, and reverse-standings fallback—provides a solid foundation to build on. Here are two simple, impactful ways to tweak BPT without compromising its integrity:
16+1 Rule: Requires one additional team to be drawn after the 16-point threshold is reached, guaranteeing at least two lottery winners and adding a little extra suspense to the process.
Adjustable Threshold: Raising the burn point threshold (to 20, 24, etc.) increases the number of lottery picks and spreads top selections more evenly. Lower thresholds keep the lottery shorter and offer greater protection for the league’s worst teams. I used 16 points in the initial model to emphasize support for struggling teams. But the threshold is fully adjustable. If tanking remains a concern, the league can raise the threshold. This extends the lottery, adds unpredictability, and makes it harder to game the system. At the same time, it gives the league control over how broadly top picks are distributed.
Here is how the draft pick odds change when using 24 BP, instead of 16 (10,000 simulations):
Other options to prevent tanking
There are several other proposals aimed at discouraging tanking while still supporting struggling teams. While we won’t dive into all of them here, two of the more popular ideas are “The Gold Plan” and a single-elimination tournament.
The Gold Plan
“The Gold Plan” was created by Adam Gold, hence the name. This idea awards draft order based on performance after a team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The more points a team earns after elimination, the higher their draft position.
It adds competitive meaning to late-season games and may encourage teams to retain key players instead of offloading them at the trade deadline. However, one drawback is that it could incentivize teams to tank earlier in the season just to reach elimination sooner and start banking points.
Another idea is a March Madness-style bracket for all non-playoff teams to determine draft order. It’s exciting in theory but raises concerns. Would players risk injury in meaningless games? Would expiring-contract players want to jeopardize future deals? This concept is fun on paper, but it would be tough to implement in practice.
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it
Some fans are fine with tanking and think the current system works. Tanking doesn’t guarantee the first overall pick—just better odds. And it helps bad teams rebuild through the draft. That said, rewarding losses feels flawed. Systems like BPT and The Gold Plan offer a way to level the field without incentivizing losing.
Is tanking a problem in the NHL?
Tanking remains one of the most polarizing aspects of professional sports—especially in leagues like the NHL, where a single draft pick can reshape a franchise’s future when a generational talent enters the mix. While the current system tries to discourage tanking, it still leaves room for strategic underperformance. Fans want to see their teams compete every night—not quietly fold for the sake of odds.
That’s why proposals like the Burn Point Threshold or The Gold Plan deserve consideration. Both aim to reward effort, not apathy, while still helping weaker teams restock talent. Whether it’s a dynamic lottery cap or a post-elimination points race, these systems offer fresh ways to reshape the draft without penalizing teams for playing hard.
What are your thoughts? Should the NHL explore bold changes to prevent tanking? Would you prefer something like BPT or The Gold Plan, or does the current system work well enough?
Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Welcome to Year 3 of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. As we did last year, we’re kicking off our NHL Draft coverage midway through the hockey season with a “mid-season” version of the Big Board.
What is the Big Board? It’s a composite ranking of 2025 NHL Draft-eligible prospects based on reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists—in this case, lists published midway through this season to account for draft-year performance. Put differently, it’s a list designed to provide the current, mid-season “public consensus” on the top players in the draft.
The Big Board does not contain any prospect-specific subjective assessments from us here at Sound Of Hockey. If you’d like a little more information on our methodology, check out our 2024 NHL Draft Big Board post.
We used the following 10 sources to build the mid-season Big Board:
NHL Central Scouting just published its landmark midseason list earlier this week on Tuesday, Jan. 14. Others are not as recent, with some dating back to November or December, 2024. It goes without saying that those earlier lists do not have the advantage of recent gameplay or injury information. Accordingly, this list should be taken as only a rough approximation of a prospect’s current standing. (For example, I suspect Matthew Schaefer might be the No.1 overall prospect if you asked the same group of analysts today, notwithstanding his injury at the World Junior Championship. Indeed, Steven Ellis of Daily Faceoff posted updated rankings mere minutes before this post went live that updated his order to put Schaefer at No. 1.) Season-end lists are much more definitive.
As we progress through the remainder of the draft season, you can expect the same coverage that you’ve come to know from us here at Sound Of Hockey in the past. Want a watchlist of prospects based on our “Data Score” method? We’ve got that for you today too. Scroll to the bottom of this post to find a mid-season “top 200” based on scoring data tabulated through Jan. 12, 2025. I’ll plan to share the full dataset (which is 10,000+ entries long) on the Sound Of Hockey Patreon for the draftniks over there.
Moving forward, we’ll have more scouting and video content here, on the Sound Of Hockey Patreon, and on YouTube. Then we’ll culminate our coverage with the final 2025 NHL Draft Big Board in June, as always.
The 2025 Sound Of Hockey Big Board – mid-season edition
All 396 players ranked by the 10 sources above make up our mid-season Big Board. As you scroll across, you will see the rankings from the various sources we compiled. If the source ranking is behind a paywall, such as Scott Wheeler’s ranking for The Athletic, we have omitted it from the chart. We used those paywalled rankings to develop the composite list, but will not be sharing subscriber-only individual rankings.
Mid-season 2025 NHL Draft “Data Score” watchlist
As mentioned at the top of this article, we’ve also put together a mid-season draft prospect watchlist built on a composite of player data we call “Data Score.” Data score is built from the bedrock of an NHL equivalency (or “NHLe”).
What is NHLe? It is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. (For this project, we used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for player data through the 2023-24 season.)
We then make adjustments for age, height, and position, as well as a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring draft-eligible players playing in high-level professional leagues. These adjustments are based on public research linking these traits to prospect success rates. We’ve gone through the methodology previously here and here. The end product is a number I’ve termed a prospect’s “Data Score.” This number does not “project” NHL scoring but is (hopefully) useful in describing the relative strength of prospects. (For now, this is a skater-only exercise, so you will not see goalies like Joshua Ravensbergen on this list.)
Earlier this fall, we posted a preseason watchlist based on the player’s 2023-24 season scoring data. In contrast, this list is based on scoring data from the 2024-25 season through Jan. 12, 2025, only. My current plan is to incorporate both seasons of scoring data into a final “Data Score” list after the season.
Since I’ve used a minimum 15-games-played threshold for the season-end list, I used eight games as the minimum for inclusion in this mid-season exercise. On the one hand, this likely introduces some small-sample-size issues, but, on the other, it gets projected top pick Roger McQueen (and his eight games played) onto the list.
Without further preamble, here are the 150 first-time eligible draft prospects with the highest Data Score. (If a player has played in multiple leagues, scoring data from each was incorporated into the player’s Data Score, but only the scoring data from the league in which the player has played the most games is shown in the table.)
Nine of the 10 prospects atop this Data Score list were in the top 30 on our preseason watchlist. Five (James Hagens, Porter Martone, Michael Misa, Jake O’Brien, and Roger McQueen) were in the pre-season top 10. Caleb Desnoyers (No. 17 on the preseason list), Benjamin Kindel (No. 18), Carter Bear (No. 22), and Bill Zonnon (No. 28) improved their scoring production a bit. Schaefer is the big riser, jumping up from No. 57 on the preseason watchlist.
Finally, here are the 50 re-draft prospects with the highest Data Score.
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If you have draft- or coverage-related questions, drop us a note below or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey or on Bluesky @deepseahockey or @soundofhockey.com.
Header photo by Caroline Anne, courtesy of the Everett Silvertips.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
