It’s been two weeks since the last installment of Monday Musings, and while I won’t delve into the details of each of the seven games that have since passed, it’s safe to say it’s been quite the roller coaster ride. We witnessed some lackluster performances against the Sabres and the Canadiens, hard-fought battles versus the Coyotes and Golden Knights, two victories against the Ducks, and a game where Seattle showed heart but ultimately fell short against the Stars. Emotionally, I’m coping a bit better with the losses now, but there’s no denying the joy that comes with the wins, regardless of their significance in the grand scheme of things.
Player signings and timing
The Seattle Kraken recently inked one of their second-round selections from the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Lukas Dragicevic, following the conclusion of the Tri-City Americans’ season. This aligns with the Kraken’s strategy of signing many of their draft picks a season after their selection. Likewise, we anticipate Oscar Fisker-Mølgaard to follow suit over the next couple of weeks, now that HV71’s season has ended.
HV71 secured its spot in the SHL for next season after a crucial Game 7 victory, sparing themselves relegation against IK Oskarshamn. Mølgaard, another second-round pick from the 2023 draft, showcased his talent with an impressive season in the SHL. While we anticipate Mølgaard’s signing, unlike Dragicevic, we don’t foresee him joining the Coachella Valley squad for the remainder of the season.
European prospects typically make the transition to North America at the end of their respective seasons if the Kraken intend to have them play in North America the following campaign. Our projection suggests Mølgaard will spend another year honing his skills in the SHL before potentially making the move across the Atlantic.
Similarly, Jani Nyman wrapped up his season last week when his team, Ilves, bowed out to KalPa in the Liiga quarterfinals. Nyman showcased his talent throughout the season, tallying an impressive 43 points in 48 games, earning him the under-20 scoring title and the coveted Red Bull helmet. Having signed his standard entry-level contract (ELC) last year as part of the 2022 Kraken draft class, there’s speculation about his future plans. While nothing is certain, there’s a growing anticipation that he may transition to North America for the upcoming season, potentially joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds to finish out the current season.
Here is a look at the status of all the Kraken draft picks by year and round.
In addition to Mølgaard, I would anticipate Carson Rehkopf to sign whenever the Kitchener Rangers season is complete.
Forecasting the draft picks
I recently received a thought-provoking question from a friend: How many players drafted by the Kraken will become regulars on the team in three years? It’s the kind of inquiry that tends to surface when your team finds itself out of playoff contention.
The data reveals an intriguing reality: only 80 percent of first-round draft picks manage to accumulate more than 100 games in the NHL. For second-round picks, that number drops to 50 percent, and it dwindles to less than 20 percent for those selected beyond the third round. Despite our enthusiasm for some of the draft picks, the odds remain steep for most of them to secure substantial NHL playing time. Assessing which players will succeed and stick in the NHL involves applying probabilities to all Kraken prospects. However, this method doesn’t offer a foolproof prediction of when they’ll make their NHL debut, and it’s worth noting that players may also be traded by the Kraken, further complicating matters.
Using a rough estimation based on the player’s draft round and potential, out of the current 28 drafted prospects, we project that approximately 8.2 will accumulate 100 games or more in the NHL. This rough proxy can help gauge the number of Kraken-drafted prospects likely to feature on the team in three years. While it may seem like the Kraken have excelled in drafting compared to other teams, this perception could be influenced by confirmation bias. To make a more definitive statement, we’ll need a few more years of data to validate this notion.
Shane Wright call-up
In case it slipped under your radar, the Kraken made a notable move on Sunday by recalling Shane Wright. This marks Shane’s second call-up to the Kraken this season, with his first stint occurring back in November for three games.
His performance in Coachella Valley this season has been impressive, fueling excitement about his potential at the highest level. From recent observations, particularly in terms of his two-way play, Shane appears to excel, demonstrating deft puck movement and a quick release, whether shooting or passing to teammates.
While I’d love to offer insights into how his skills will translate to the NHL, the reality is that there’s limited exposure to 20-year-old centers playing in the AHL. Nonetheless, my expectation is that he’ll remain with the team for at least five games, affording us the opportunity to witness his talents in action during the last two home games of the season next week.
Other musings
With the departure of Alex Wennberg and the absence of Vince Dunn, the power play has looked very different. There seems to be a greater emphasis on getting the puck down low for either a touch pass to the slot or sliding a pass across the crease. It seems to be working. The Kraken have a 22.2 power-play percentage since March 3. That is slightly better than the 21.2 percent they had prior to Wennberg’s departure.
One of the more noticeable elements of the power play recently is the change of shot location of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jared McCann. They are still getting their shots; they are just getting it from different locations.
The Kraken goaltenders still have the second highest save percentage in the league since Dec. 1.
In case anyone missed it, the Kraken will be the only NHL team in the league without a home win on a Saturday this season, and I have no theories on why.
Goal scoring continues to be a challenge. The Kraken have scored two goals or less in seven out of their last nine games.
Alison Lukan beat me to it by five days, but the 10 power play opportunities against the Anaheim game on Thursday was a franchise record. The previous record was eight against Vancouver in the inaugural season.
The Ducks are far and away the most undisciplined team in the league, while the Kraken are one of the most disciplined.
The Kraken allowed their ninth goal of the season within five seconds of a face-off on Saturday. We commonly refer to these as ‘face-off goals against.’ They are second in the NHL at allowing face-off goals against this season. The second goal Dallas scored was nine seconds after a face-off.
I have watched a lot of Liiga (Finland) and SHL (Sweden) via their streaming platforms. The picture quality is so superior to footage of the AHL and most of the NHL Regional Sport Networks. Why can’t we get this kind of quality for North America? I understand why it might be a challenge for the CHL, but the other leagues have the money and viewers to make their products better.
Speaking of Scandinavian hockey leagues, Kraken goalie prospect Niklas Kokko will be playing an elimination game in the Liiga playoffs when his team, Lahden Pelicans, squares off against HIFK in a Game 7 matchup Tuesday evening in Finland. Kokko has a .935 save percentage and 1.58 goals against average in these playoffs. He just turned 20 years old.
Player performances
David Goyette (SBY/SEA) – The regular-season points leader in the OHL had a Gordie Howe hat trick in the Sudbury Wolves’ second OHL playoff game. The Wolves lead that series 2-0 and are headed to Sudbury for Games 3 and 4.
Joey Daccord (SEA) – posted a .951 save percentage over the last week with a goals against average of 1.01 in that stretch.
Visa Vedenpää (HER/SEA) – The sixth-round goalie selected in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft had a 39-save shutout on March 27 playing for Hermes in the second round of the Mestis league playoffs.
Goal of the week
Shooters shoot. Check out Goyette’s goal from a crazy game against Mississauga on Saturday.
Furthering the discussion about the Kraken draft picks, here is a look at the number of draft picks playing for the teams that drafted them. I leveraged the CapFriendly.com depth charts so there could be players not reflected in the data if they are currently out of the lineup.
What to watch for
Shane Wright. There are not a lot of obvious roster changes next season, but you can probably lock Shane into a spot right now. I don’t think we will be able to extrapolate much from this stint with the Kraken, but my hope is we see the strides he has made by developing in the AHL this season. It would be great to see a goal or two, but I am eager to see how he moves the puck and how he plays defensively. Hopefully, he gets some special teams opportunities.
We are getting close to offseason mode where we will be digging into the draft, prospects, what went wrong, and a host of other content ideas we have brewing. If there are areas you want us to dig into, please let us know.
It is time for another playoff update. With 10 games remaining, the Kraken are not mathematically eliminated just yet, but they’re closing in on that painful milestone. The Kings, Golden Knights, and Predators need to get more than 93 points for the Kraken to be officially out. Currently the Kings are at 87 points, the Golden Knights are at 88 points and the Predators are at 90 points.
What happened this week
Mar. 24 – Demoralizing Kraken loss to Montreal (5-1)
The Seattle Kraken gave up four goals in the first period and just looked flat the entire game. Philipp Grubauer was pulled, but this was definitely a loss by the whole team. Dave Hakstol called out the group after the loss, saying “Every time you put this jersey on, it means a lot, and right now we are not portraying that out on the ice. You play this game with passion, you play it with heart, and you play it for the guy next to you. And we are not doing that right now, and that’s more than disappointing. That’s hard to be part of and something we are going to change.”
"You play this game with passion. You play it with heart. You play it for the guy next to you. We're not doing that right now and that's more than disappointing."
General manager Ron Francis also had a message and delivered it in the form of bringing up some youth from Coachella Valley in 20-year-old Ryan Winterton and 21-year-old Logan Morrison.
Mar. 26 – Kraken shut out the Ducks (4-0)
The streak ended!!! The Kraken were on an eight-game skid, one shy of their longest losing streak ever, which was a nine-game losing streak during the inaugural season. The Kraken finally broke through on the scoresheet, putting up four goals after only averaging 1.38 goals per game in their previous eight contests. Goaltender Joey Daccord and the Kraken as a whole looked solid against a bad team and earned a shutout. The Ducks were limited to just 12 shots.
Morrison, playing in his first NHL game, received the Davy Jones hat from Andre Burakovsky and earned an impressive 14:21 of ice time, including 3:46 of power-play time. While he did not record a point, he had four good shots on net and generated two turnovers. Overall, the fourth line of Tye Kartye, Winterton, and Morrison looked good with a youthful and spirited effort.
Mar. 28 – Round two with Anaheim, Kraken win (4-2)
There was not much going on in the first and second periods, but the Kraken were able to get on the board and hold a 1-0 lead to start the third period. The third was wild, though, featuring five goals (including two short-handed by Anaheim), some fisticuffs, and 28 penalty minutes.
Even though the Kraken gave up two short-handed goals 44 seconds apart, they rallied and scored three straight to recapture the lead and win the game. Morrison had 13:12 of ice time with an incredible 6:30 on the power play. Unfortunately for Morrison, he also had the puck stripped from him, which led to the second short-handed marker by Jakob Silfverberg.
The key here is Hakstol is giving the youngsters on the fourth line lots of playing time and valuable experience.
Wild card race
St. Louis Blues
Realistically, only the St. Louis Blues are the only team outside the playoff bubble that still have a chance at a wild card spot, five points behind the Kings for the last position. Both Los Angeles and Vegas are in striking distance for St. Louis, but one of those two teams will qualify as the No. 3 seed in the Pacific Division. Vegas has a six-point lead with nine games remaining, and Los Angeles has 10 games left. According to tankathon.com, the Blues have the second easiest schedule remaining.
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is sitting at 87 points and won four of its last five games. The Kings do have a game in hand over St. Louis and Vegas but will need to finish strong to keep their playoff spot. The Kings also have an easy schedule remaining and actually have the easiest of all NHL teams, according to tankathon.com.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas has the toughest remaining schedule of the teams fighting for a spot, coming in at 17th hardest in the NHL. The Knights did not make it easy on themselves, going to overtime with both St. Louis and Nashville, but they finished with an impressive 3-0-1 record this week that has put them in the third playoff spot in the Pacific Division.
Nashville Predators
Nashville’s unbeaten streak was ended at 18 games (16-0-2) by the Arizona Coyotes (of all teams) on Thursday night. The Predators have pretty much punched their ticket to the playoffs, holding an eight-point lead over St. Louis. They are only four points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the third spot in the Central Division. The Jets and Predators will play one more time this season, so that lead could disappear quickly.
The week ahead for the Kraken
The Seattle Kraken have three games this week (Mar. 29-Apr. 3). They will face one team from each team categorization, Playoff-Bound, Bubble, and Tanker:
Mar. 30 (Home) – Kraken vs. Stars – Playoff Bound
Apr. 1 (Away) – Kraken vs. Sharks – Tanker
Apr. 3 (Away) – Kraken vs. Los Angeles – Bubble
Personally, I am looking to the game versus the San Jose Sharks, as the Kraken look to avenge the 2-0 shutout they got handed back on Jan. 30.
The Kraken probably will be eliminated from playoff contention in the next week or two. If the Kraken lose two or more games this week, that would likely do it. If they get a couple wins, this could stretch out for another week.
More call-ups?
With Morrison and Winterton getting called up to the Kraken, we are thinking that Shane Wright will be brought up for a couple games before the end of the season. Wright has only played in three games with the Kraken this year. He can play six more without burning a year of his entry-level contract. Overlaying the Firebirds schedule with the Kraken schedule, we theorize that if Wright is called up, it is most likely for the Apr. 9 and Apr. 11 home games against the Coyotes and Sharks.
Despite the loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Friday night, it was still a good week for the Kraken with back-to-back road wins against Calgary and Winnipeg. The team is still giving itself a long shot at making the playoffs, and that is all we can hope for at this point.
The challenge has been that Nashville just keeps accumulating points, Los Angeles seems to be coming out of its funk, and Vegas just loaded up at the trade deadline. It was already a tough hill to climb, but this hill is seriously daunting. As unlikely as the playoffs seem at this point, epic comebacks or fairy-tale-type endings must start when it looks like all is lost, so maybe we will witness something special.
Trade deadline thoughts
The trade deadline came and went with a bit of drama in Seattle, but no real surprises. I mentioned in last week’s column that we had probably seen Alexander Wennberg wearing a Kraken jersey for the last time. The team ended up scratching Wennberg for their Monday and Tuesday back-to-back games and ultimately traded him to the New York Rangers on Wednesday. The return was a second-round pick and a conditional fourth-round pick. This was a fair return, but we had been hoping for a first-round selection after Sean Monahan brought a first-round return when Montreal traded him to Winnipeg in early February.
In retrospect, my assessment that he would warrant a first-round pick in return was evaluating what he meant to the Kraken, not so much what he would mean for a pursuing team. Wennberg led all forwards in time on ice and penalty-kill time for the Kraken. He also led the team in defensive-zone and short-handed face-offs. He would often be deployed against the opposing team’s best line to keep them in check.
Most teams pursuing a center at the trade deadline don’t need all those characteristics; they just need a few of them, hence lowering the expected return for Wennberg.
Eberle signs extension
The other bit of business around the trade deadline was the Eberle signing. This was largely expected by Sound Of Hockey, but we might not have expected the last-minute drama that implied he would be moved if a deal was not in place. The final contract was announced just hours before the trade deadline, giving us all a sigh of relief. The deal was for two years, carrying a $4.75 million average annual value. The AAV came in a bit higher than we expected but was likely inflated to avoid a third year in term.
Outside of the Wennberg trade and the Eberle signing, the Kraken had no other transactions during the trade deadline week. I was surprised that Justin Schultz wasn’t traded, with cup contenders looking to add some defensive depth, but as Darren Brown mentioned on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, the injury to Vince Dunn may have complicated matters a bit.
Other Musings
The Jets shutout of Seattle on Friday night was the sixth time the Kraken have been shutout this season, which is the most they have been shutout in a single campaign (they were shut out five times in the inaugural season). Only the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks have been shutout more this season, and both have been shut out nine times.
Jordan Eberle is scheduled to play in his 1000th NHL game on Tuesday night when the Kraken take on the Vegas Golden Knights. In addition to his 1000th game, he is also approaching several other milestone stat marks. He has 296 goals, 399 assists and 695 points.
During Ron Francis’s media availability on Friday, he spoke about Eberle’s character and leadership in the locker room as a contributing factor in re-signing the veteran winger for two years. During the inaugural season, Eberle was often the player that would be willing to speak to the media after several disappointing losses.
Eberle is probably responsible for minting more hockey fans in the Pacific Northwest than any other player with this goal. It still gives me chills.
This is the first time in Kraken history that I recall the team having a team goalie save percentage above .900. Both Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer have been outstanding since the turn of the calendar year with a collective .929 save percentage in 2024.
The Kraken have two more chances to get their first win on a Saturday night at home this season with the first opportunity this Saturday against Nashville. That’s a big game. I say they do it.
Kraken prospect David Goyette became the first player to log 100 points in the OHL this season. Goyette has been a very consistent producer all season, and it will be fun to see what he can do at the next level.
Ales Stezka (CVF/SEA) – The backup goalie for the Coachella Valley Firebirds had two wins in two days and posted a .958 save percentage. Stezka did not start the second game but had to jump in when Chris Driedger left the game feeling under the weather.
Ryan Winterton (CVF/SEA) – The Firebird winger has four goals in his last three games. He is tied with Shane Wright for fourth in rookie goal scoring in the AHL.
Colin Blackwell (CHI) – An old friend and original Kraken Expansion Draft pick, Colin Blackwell scored his first career hat trick for the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday.
By now we realize one of the major challenges of this Kraken season is the lack of goal scoring, but it is also worth pointing out that they have reduced goals against.
The road ahead
After the first half of March, the Kraken schedule gets easier, and as long as they don’t fare too poorly against tough opponents during the first half of the month, they should at least make the stretch run interesting. With the help of some back-of-the-envelope math, I tried to forecast the wild card contenders’ final point projections.
I categorized all teams into three buckets, Playoff Bound, Bubble Teams, and out. I then figured each team’s points percentage against those categories of teams this season and assumed each team would stay on that points pace against each category of team for the remainder of the season.
Here are the results:
Of the teams listed, the Kraken have the easiest strength of schedule remaining, but the 89.2-point projection still doesn’t look encouraging for them. I also did not include the cluster of other teams that are currently tied with the Kraken in points.
There is no doubt that sneaking into the playoffs will be a huge challenge. Money Puck currently has the Kraken at an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. A first step will be grabbing four out of six points this week with home games against two Western Conference bubble teams in Vegas (Tuesday) and Nashville (Saturday).
I don’t want to pin the whole season on one or two games, but considering where the Kraken are in the standings, the situation is dire. Two regulation wins against teams they are competing with for the wild card would give their chances a significant boost. We also cannot overlook the Washington Capitals who visit Climate Pledge Arena on Thursday.
For the last three seasons, all I have really asked for is that the team plays meaningful games in March. This week could not have more meaning in the season, so buckle up.
Almost two months have passed since we first outlined the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken. In that first iteration, we concluded the Kraken would need to hit 93 points to give themselves a 50-percent chance at making the playoffs. They fell three points behind the 93-point pace in January, so they needed to obtain 11 points in February to get back on track. They did just that.
It was a bumpy ride in February, but in the end, the Kraken finished the month 5-3-1 (exactly 11 points), capping it off with Philipp Grubauer’s first-ever shutout at Climate Pledge Area and first shutout of the season.
February review
List of games: LOSS – Sat, Feb. 10 @ Philadelphia 3 – 2 (Bubble) LOSS – Mon, Feb. 12 @ New Jersey 3 – 1 (Bubble) WIN – Tue, Feb. 13 @ NY Islanders 2 – 1 SO (Bubble) WIN – Thu, Feb. 15 @ Boston 4 – 1 (Playoff Bound) OT LOSS – Mon, Feb. 19 vs Detroit 4 – 3 (Bubble) WIN – Thu, Feb. 22 vs Vancouver 5 – 2 (Playoff Bound) LOSS – Sat, Feb. 24 vs Minnesota 5 – 2 (Bubble) WIN – Mon, Feb. 26 vs Boston 4 – 3 SO (Playoff Bound) WIN – Thu, Feb. 29 vs Pittsburgh 2 – 0 (Bubble)
Bubble teams:
Let us start with the lows of the month, which is how the Kraken fared against Bubble teams. After the NHL All-Star break, the Kraken came out flat and lost two straight games to the Flyers and Devils. That really put Seattle in a hole and increased the pressure to perform. Later in the month, the Kraken laid an egg, losing 5-2 to the Wild for their third loss to a Bubble team.
Goaltending:
Joey Daccord is showing signs of cooling off. He had one win during the month of February and four losses (three in regulation, one in overtime). He was also pulled in the Minnesota game, but on the positive side, he still held a respectable .904 save percentage for the month. The one win came against the Boston Bruins and was a bright spot for the Massachusetts native. Another player by the name of “Post, Clang” might have had a few saves in the Boston game as well.
On the flip side, as the team struggled with Daccord in net, they excelled with Grubauer and went 4-0-0 in his starts. The wins included Grubauer’s shutout of the Penguins, two shootout wins against the Islanders and Bruins, and another regulation win against the Canucks. The German Gentleman did not always need to be his best but looked solid in his return from injury. Grubauer posted a stingy .947 save percentage during the month of February.
Playoff-Bound teams:
The Kraken were a perfect 3-0 against Playoff-Bound teams, which highlights what this team is capable of achieving. Two wins against Boston and one win against Vancouver is something to build on with March now upon us. Continuing to succeed against top teams will be key to the Kraken’s chances of making the playoffs.
February overall:
In the original article on the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken, 93 points was shown to give a team a 50-percent chance of making the playoffs. Things that were hard to watch:
The Loss to the Wild resulted in a four-point swing
The Predators going on an amazing 9-1-0 run through the month
Remember, neither of these items changes the math. The Kraken need 30 points out of a possible 46 points to hit the 93-point target for the rest of the season. This works out to a .652 points percentage.
Focusing on March:
March is a busy month with 14 games on the schedule and the trade deadline fast approaching on March 8. Of the 14 games, six are against Playoff-Bound teams, three are against Bubble teams, and five are against Tanker teams. The Arizona Coyotes have gone 0-8-2 in their last 10 games and have been relegated to the Tanker teams. No other changes to team categorizations were made. Here is a list of the team categorizations:
Trade Deadline:
There are three more games before the trade deadline, but the Seattle Kraken are probably not going to get all the answers to their playoff hopes from just those games. Eyes will be on the Predators who also have three games before the trade deadline. If the Predators are able to widen their wild card lead even more, the Kraken might turn to being sellers at the deadline.
It should be noted that the Predators have two games in hand, so the current seven-point (as of Feb. 29) lead over the Kraken could be as small as three points. But everything would need to go in the Kraken’s favor over the next week for that to be true.
Wrap up:
March could very well play out similarly to February, as the first seven games are against tough opponents, before Seattle finishes the month with five of its last seven games in the month against Tankers. Strap in for another bumpy ride, but we should know the Kraken’s playoff fate by the end of this month.
A few weeks back, we reviewed the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents in a two-part series (Part I and Part II). This week, we will be jumping into the Kraken’s three restricted free agents (RFA’s) and reviewing what might be in store for them during the offseason. The Coachella Valley Firebirds also have five additional RFA’s in the Kraken development system. We will focus more on the RFA’s currently playing with Seattle but will also touch briefly on the ones playing for the Firebirds.
There are many rules around RFA’s that complicate contract negotiations. If you need a refresher on the free agency process and steps, Sound Of Hockey‘s own Curtis Isacke wrote a piece on free agency last year for review. The appendix outlines the terms associated with free agency, and there is also a section dedicated to RFA’s.
The Seattle Kraken RFA process is a long one that can last up to 18 months. It technically started back on July 1, 2023, when the players in question first became eligible to sign contract extensions. At the conclusion of the process, the hope for both sides is typically a finalized contract. These negotiations can sometimes drag into the following season, causing a player to miss time, but that is rare.
Here are the high-level steps RFA’s will go through:
Possibility of contract extension
Qualifying offers extended
Arbitration (if the player is eligible; Matty Beniers is the only Kraken RFA that does not have arbitration rights)
Contract negotiations (short-term bridge or long-term deal?)
The Kraken RFA’s are:
Matty Beniers (Age 21) – Target: Re-sign for two years at $5M AAV
Matty Beniers at Kraken practice. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
After dazzling as a rookie and capturing the Calder Trophy last season, Beniers has found himself in a sophomore slump season. His scoring pace has dipped by around 40 percent, signaling his value in negotiations has decreased and a bridge deal might be in his future.
While the scoring decline is noticeable, it’s crucial to consider the context. Through 50 games, the Kraken have scored 140 goals, down from the 177 goals they scored in 50 games last season. Beniers’ value also extends beyond pure offense. He’s a skilled two-way center, contributing defensively and driving puck possession. But, he still needs to produce offensively to warrant the massive contract his camp surely wants.
With no extension signed to date, it is questionable if a deal will be done before the offseason. Had Beniers maintained his rookie scoring pace, a maximum-term, eight-year contract would likely be on the table. Given the current scoring slump, a bridge deal (one-to-four years) appears more probable.
Looking at recent bridge deals for young, talented players offers some insight:
Trevor Zegras: three-year bridge at $5.75M AAV
Pierre-Luc Dubois: two-year bridge at $5M AAV, followed by a one-year bridge at $6M AAV
Despite the scoring dip, Beniers’ overall value remains high.
Defensive Prowess: His two-way play adds considerable value beyond the goal sheet.
Calder Trophy Winner: His past achievements and potential shouldn’t be disregarded.
Age and Development: At 21, Beniers is still developing and has plenty of room for improvement.
Trade options:
As the franchise’s first-ever draft pick and face of the team, the Kraken are unlikely to trade Beniers. We will not be reviewing trade options.
Prediction:
We anticipate a bridge deal in the two-to-four-year range with $4.5M-$5.5M AAV. This will give Beniers a chance to rediscover his scoring touch and earn a potential eight-year extension while still young.
Eeli Tolvanen (Age 24) – Target: Re-sign for 5 years at $4M AAV
Eeli Tolvanen’s arrival in Seattle via a savvy waiver wire claim has quickly become one of the NHL’s biggest waiver success stories. Now, as the 24-year-old winger approaches the end of his current contract, the Seattle Kraken face a crucial decision: bridge deal or long-term commitment?
Eeli Tolvanen and Yanni Gourde celebrate a goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Tolvanen’s offensive prowess is undeniable. He’s on pace for a career-high point total this season, showcasing a potent blend of goal-scoring ability and playmaking. His physicality is another asset, leading all Kraken forwards in hits (136), and he is also second in blocked shots (52) through 50 games.
Contract comparables:
Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes): five years, $4.3M AAV
Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis Blues): five years, $5M AAV
Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild): eight years, $5.25M AAV
Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): five years, $4.5M AAV
Complicating factors:
One wrinkle in the negotiations is Tolvanen’s arbitration eligibility. If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, an independent arbitrator will determine his contract value. This adds an element of uncertainty for both the Kraken and Tolvanen and gives the player more leverage.
Another factor to consider is Tolvanen’s unique skill set. Most of the comparable contracts listed above feature players that contribute on the penalty kill. The Finnish winger primarily thrives on five-on-five as a solid two-way player and brings an accurate shot to the power play.
Trade options:
While trades involving restricted free agents outperforming their current contracts are uncommon, since teams typically hold onto their relatively young talent, some recent deals offer insights into potential return value.
Artturi Lehkonen – Colorado surrendered a second-round pick and former first-round prospect Justin Barron for Lehkonen in 2022.
Sam Bennett – Florida sent a package of a second-round pick and former second-round prospect Emil Heineman for Bennett and a sixth-round pick in 2021.
While Tolvanen’s power-play prowess surpasses those of the comparables, it’s unlikely to push his trade value to a first-round pick. A target trade return should be two second-round picks/prospects or better. Despite the potential trade haul, the Kraken will likely prioritize re-signing Tolvanen unless an exceptional offer emerges.
The 2023 Tampa Bay Lightning trade for Tanner Jeannot serves as an example of an offer potentially too good to refuse. Nashville received a first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round draft pick, along with defenseman Cal Foote, for the feisty winger.
Prediction:
Despite the uncertainties, expect the Kraken to prioritize retaining Tolvanen long-term. Jared McCann and Vince Dunn were of similar age when they signed their deals with the Kraken and both will be 30 at the time their contracts come to term. We see the Kraken structuring this deal in a similar way but at a smaller dollar value than the $7.35M AAV deal for Dunn and the $5M AAV deal for McCann.
A five-year deal in the $4M-$4.5M AAV range seems like a reasonable outcome. While a longer-term contract isn’t out of the question, a five-year deal gives Tolvanen more options later in his career.
Kailer Yamamoto (Age 25) – Target: Trade for a fourth-round pick
Don’t let Kailer Yamamoto’s stature fool you. At 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the Seattle Kraken forward might be one of the smallest players in the NHL, but his heart and hustle are oversized. He came to the Kraken via free agency after being traded and then bought out of his last $3.2M contract by Detroit, but he is now a pending RFA with Seattle.
Kailer Yamamoto handles the puck. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Yamamoto’s tenacity is most evident on the forecheck, where he uses his low center of gravity to hound puck carriers; he is third on the team in takeaways minus giveaways. The Spokane native’s knack for entering the offensive zone with control translates to his high power play usage.
Yamamoto’s versatility adds another layer to his worth, his high career shooting percentage (14.1 percent) allows him to bump up the lineup when needed. Despite his fourth-line designation, Yamamoto’s advanced statistics are strong. He currently leads the Kraken in both Corsi and Fenwick percentage, suggesting that Yamamoto not only generates offense himself, but also elevates the play of his teammates when on the ice.
The Seattle Kraken only deploy Yamamoto about 12 minutes per game and have scratched him from the lineup on several occasions. In researching players to find comparable contracts, the search was narrowed to players that:
Average under 13 minutes per game.
Average over 90 seconds of power-play time per game.
Have under 20 points on the season.
Have played more than 25 games this season.
Only six players meet this criteria, and they either are playing at or near the league minimum salary or have signed a large deal and are not playing to their contract’s value. Yamamoto doesn’t fit in these categories, so we will not be looking at those comparables.
The small winger is only 25, so he does have one more year where he can play as an RFA. At this point, though, it is apparent the fourth-liner is not going to move the needle enough for the Seattle Kraken and has solidified himself as a depth player.
The winger is arbitration eligible, and a qualifying offer would have to match his current $1.5M AAV. For these reasons, we think it is unlikely the Kraken extend a qualifying offer to Yamamoto. The former Spokane Chief could still sign with the Kraken during free agency, and if that happens, you can expect another one-year deal in the neighborhood of $1M AAV.
Trade options:
The best trade to review is probably his own from Edmonton to Detroit, but there are a couple other options to review too:
Kailer Yamamoto – Detroit sent the infamous “Future Considerations” to Edmonton in 2023 and also received the signing rights of Klim Kostin.
Oskar Sundqvist – Detroit acquired a fourth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023
Rasmus Asplund – Nashville traded a seventh-round pick to Nashville in 2023
The only piece that has changed since Yamamoto’s last trade is his AAV is now $1.5M versus $3.2M when traded in 2023. Factoring in that Yamamoto is still an RFA and the Kraken can retain 50 percent of his contract, a playoff-bound team getting a depth winger with power play experience at a minimal cap hit does have some value. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is in the right range.
Prediction:
If the Kraken remain in the playoff hunt, they will probably hold onto Yamamoto through the end of the season. There are capable right wing fourth-line options in Coachella Valley with Kole Lind, Marian Studenic, and John Hayden available for call-ups, though, so if they get an offer for Yamamoto, the Kraken may be willing to trade him.
Down on the Farm [Moooo!]
Even when I type “Moooo”, I hear it in Sound Of Hockey Podcast host, Darren Brown’s voice. All five of the Coachella Valley Firebird RFA’s are arbitration eligible. This is not as much of a concern as at the NHL level, because most contracts will be two-way deals around league minimum, $775K AAV. All of these players make under $1M, so the qualifying offers will include a five percent increase. We will review each player and assign a “Qualify”, “Trade,” or “Let walk” tag to each player.
Kole Lind– Target: Trade The 25-year-old winger excels on the offensive side of the game, but his scoring successes have not translated to the NHL yet. Similar to Daniel Sprong, there are questions around his two-way play, which makes him a hard fit for the Kraken. He’s one of those guys that has been right on the cusp of making it in the NHL, though. The Kraken should look to trade the winger and package him with another player.
Ville Petman – Target: Qualify The Finnish winger was signed to a two-year deal in 2022 after showing promise in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, scoring 39 points in 59 games. Bringing him to the AHL have allowed the Kraken to evaluate how Petman adapts to the North American game and monitor his improvement. The 24-year-old left wing got off to a good start with 28 points in his first AHL season, but he unfortunately has not showed improvement this season. There are still enough positives to award Petman another contract, but don’t expect to see him on the Kraken roster any time soon.
Luke Henman – Target: Let walk The first player signed to a contract in Kraken franchise history, Henman was never signed to an entry-level deal by Carolina after being drafted in the fourth round in 2018. In his three years in the AHL, his offensive abilities have become stagnant, averaging 0.24 points per game. At 23, Henman still has time to develop, but making the NHL at this point is a going to be an uphill battle.
Marian Studenic – Target: Qualify Studenic is a hard-forechecking winger with a scoring touch. Listed at 165 pounds, he is on the lighter side but could fill a fourth-line type role. With one year remaining as RFA, we think the Kraken will make him a qualifying offer. Update, it has come to my attention that Studenic will actually be a Group 6 UFA at the end of the season. That means the Kraken would not make a qualifying offer, but rather just re-sign him.
Peetro Seppala – Target: Qualify Seppala is a left-shot defenseman that is getting good experience in the AHL. The Finn brings a mix of good puck-moving ability and improving offensive numbers in his two years with the Firebirds. He is behind Ryker Evans on the depth chart and still needs to develop his game, though. We think the Kraken will look to retain Seppala’s rights and extend him a qualifying offer.
Group 6 UFA Sound of Hockey’s own Curtis Isacke pointed out that Kole Lind and Martin Studenic will most likely be Group 6 UFA’s at the end of the season and he is absolutely correct. A full definition of a Group 6 UFA can be found here. A simplified definition is a player that is at least 25 years-old, played at least 3 professional seasons and played less than 80 games at the NHL level.
Overall:
Beniers’ development, Tolvanen’s retention, and Yamamoto’s future all paint a larger picture of Seattle’s commitment to building a contender. Balancing the Kraken’s short-term needs with long-term aspirations, the decisions made this offseason will be interesting to watch. Join the conversation below and let us know how you think the Kraken should handle their RFA’s.
With the Kraken still in the midst of their long All-Star/bye week hiatus, there has not been much action since the last edition of Monday Musings. So this week I am going to dig into a few topics I have been wanting to look at for a while but haven’t had the time, instead of re-reacting to the Seattle Kraken loss to the Sharks last Tuesday. If you’re here looking for that, you can listen to last week’s episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. Spoiler: you will probably be underwhelmed by my non-emotionally charged response.
Shane Wright’s progress
I have talked to a few people about how Shane Wright has been performing in Coachella Valley. What I’ve heard is that those who have a critical eye for hockey talent seem to be impressed with how he is progressing. There will always be questions on how skill and production in the AHL translate to the NHL, but you want to see some stand-out qualities while young prospects are playing in the AHL. Shane is showing these stand-out qualities.
There are a couple areas I wanted to look at with regard to Shane’s game. First, how does his production compare to other forwards that played in the AHL at his age? Second, how is he trending? Is he getting better as the season progresses?
One area of note, getting advanced(ish) data from the AHL without buying an expensive stats package from a third-party provider is a challenge, so take all this analysis with a grain of salt.
From this basic analysis, it appears that Wright is scoring goals at the top end of his peer group, with .44 goals per game so far this season. Again, it is not a perfect analysis for projecting future results in the NHL, but we must be happy with the direction this is headed.
Shane Wright in-season trends
To take a stab at evaluating if Shane is getting better, I just created a moving average of shots, points, and goals. Ideally, we would have something like expected goals that would be generated by using shot location and events, but the AHL isn’t as lucky to have a rich analytics community that evaluates play-by-play data and runs it through a model to produce such metrics. Goals and points are obvious indicators of success on the ice, but I added shots to see if Wright has been generating more shots per game as the season progresses.
The chart is rather inconclusive. There was a sag in Wright’s points and goal production between games 20 and 28 with only a slight dip in shots during that same time span. Point production and goals seem to be rebounding lately, but both are roughly on par with where Wright was producing toward the beginning of the season.
One thing that is not available is time on ice and more specifically time on ice by game scenario (power play, penalty kill, etc.). Shane is on the power play and penalty kill, which is great to see, but we can’t break out the data to show that.
Here is a video from Saturday night. The clip does not do the play justice, but Wright was killing a penalty, stole the puck from the Tucson player, and charged down the ice to find a streaking Ryan Winterton as the penalty expired.
Overall, I think we should be excited with how Shane is developing into the two-way center he was billed as when the Kraken drafted him fourth overall in 2022.
Kraken scoring
It is obvious that one of the biggest challenges for the Seattle Kraken this year has been scoring goals. Part of this has been driven by injuries, and part of it has been a natural regression to a more normal shooting percentage after last year’s torrid pace.
There have been positive signs that the shooting percentage has been rebounding a bit. The Kraken’s shooting percentage has been 11.3 percent over the last 20 games. This topic warrants a deep dive on the scoring this season, so expect a Data Dump on that later this week.
Other Musings
We have seen two big trades over the last five days that both involved a first-round draft pick as part of the trade, in exchange for a center. You must figure other teams looking for a center are calling Ron Francis to see what it would take to get pending unrestricted free agent, Alexander Wennberg. In my opinion, Wennberg is on par with Sean Monahan, who just fetched a first-round pick in 2024 and a conditional third-round pick in 2027. With that market set, until the Kraken are squarely out of the playoff race, you don’t move Wennberg for anything less than a first.
If the Kraken trade Wennberg, the departure of his versatility will leave a huge hole in the lineup. He plays on the power play and penalty kill and leads Kraken forwards in total time on ice, averaging 18:42 per game.
It was exciting to hear the news about NHL players returning to the Olympics. Those tournaments have brought so much excitement for the game in the past. The Kraken have several players who have played in past Olympics, including Matty Beniers, Eeli Tolvanen, and Tomas Tatar. Will Borgen was also named to Team USA in 2018 but did not play a game.
If you need a local hockey fix, you might want to tune into the AHL All-Star Game airing on NHL Network Monday. There are a lot of former Seattle Thunderbirds and Everett Silvertips playing in the game: Brad Lambert, Jake Christiansen, Gage Goncalves, Dustin Wolf, Olen Zellweger, and Dylan Guenther were all named to the game, plus the Seattle Kraken’s own Ryker Evans will be there.
Player performances
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard – One of the Kraken’s second-round selections in last summer’s NHL Entry Draft, Molgaard has nine points in his last 10 games playing for HV71 in the top-tier league in Sweden. Prior to those 10 games, he had seven points over his first 27 games of the season. We chatted with Oscar back in July.
Tyson Jugnauth – A fourth-round draft pick of the Kraken from 2022, Jugnauth has 24 points in 22 games for the Portland Winterhawks. He started the season with the Wisconsin Badgers but only had two assists in 13 games. He left school midseason to play for Portland, and I am pretty sure he has no regrets leaving Wisconsin (he explained his decision to leave in a Sound Of Hockey story here).
Niklas Kokko – The Finnish goaltender has two wins in his last three starts playing for Pelicans, his new team in Liiga. He has a .947 save percentage in that span.
Goal of the week
we can’t play it here but Lithium came on after Bjorkstrand’s goal & it was beautiful 🥹 pic.twitter.com/7lzo7AcMzh
The Kraken return to action on Saturday in Philadelphia. The Flyers dropped their last five games with a goal differential of 27-13 but have two games before they take on Seattle. Expect some rust for the Kraken coming out of the long break (last year they lost their first three games after the All-Star break).
Thanks to reader/listener ‘Yanni’s Suffocating Pestilence,’ who gave me a homework assignment after last week’s Musings. Expect some of those findings in the next edition.
If you have any thoughts or areas of exploration, feel free to leave a comment, and I will add it to the backlog.
