As the Seattle Kraken’s fifth season gets underway, the Strive for 95 series returns. Most teams that reach 95 points qualify for the playoffs, making it a strong benchmark to track Seattle’s progress.
Like last season, the Kraken begin with a new coaching staff, but this year’s focus is on regaining their defensive identity. Last year, Seattle ranked 16th in goals scored (247). Among teams that made the playoffs, the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, and New Jersey Devils actually scored fewer goals than the Kraken. Defense was the issue—the Kraken ranked 24th with 265 goals against. Head coach Lane Lambert was brought in during the offseason and is focused on tightening the team’s defensive structure.
Team tiers
For those new to this series, we at Sound Of Hockey split NHL teams into three categories: Playoff Bound, Bubble, and Tankers. To reach 95 points, a team needs a .579 points percentage. No game in the NHL is a gimme, but tiering teams helps gauge the difficulty of the Kraken’s schedule and level-sets expectations.
Playoff Bound – Teams expected to comfortably make the playoffs, generally among the league’s top performers last season.
Bubble – Teams fighting for a playoff spot, most likely battling for wild-card positions.
Tankers – Teams likely to miss the playoffs, making them Seattle’s most favorable matchups.
The biggest category is the Bubble teams, which includes 17 clubs. With a new season underway, many are still finding their footing as offseason moves settle in. I expect a few Bubble teams to slip into the Tankers category as the season progresses, and perhaps a couple will rise to the Playoff Bound tier.
These tiers are fluid and will update as the season progresses. In the NHL, only 16 teams make the playoffs—eight from each conference. Currently, 10 teams fall into the Playoff Bound category, leaving six playoff spots up for grabs: three in the East and three in the West.
Breakdown of point percentages
The NHL schedule consists of 82 games. When aligned with the team tiers, the Kraken play 27 games against Playoff Bound teams, 41 against Bubble teams, and 13 against Tankers. While no matchup is an automatic win, victories against Tankers should be more attainable than those against elite teams. Therefore, we can expect higher point percentages against Tankers, moderate against Bubble teams, and lower against Playoff Bound opponents.
These projections will adjust throughout the season based on Seattle’s pace. For now, the projected breakdown looks as follows:
October targets
After two home wins to start the year, Seattle is off to its best start in franchise history. The vibes are high, but perspective matters—it’s only two games. The Kraken now embark on a six-game road trip that will give them an early-season test. The trip includes their first of 13 back-to-back games this season, meaning a backup goalie will see action. Seattle went 0-12 in second legs of back-to-backs last year, a glaring area for improvement. This trip ties for their longest of the season, with another six-game swing coming in March.
Seattle plays 10 games in October: five against Playoff Bound teams, four against Bubble teams, and one against a Tanker. With two wins already under their belt and eight games remaining, Seattle has set the stage for a potentially bountiful October.
Playoff Bound teams (four-point target) – Seattle has already defeated the Vegas Golden Knights in an overtime thriller on Oct. 11. Remaining opponents in this group include Toronto (Oct. 18), Washington (Oct. 21), Winnipeg (Oct. 23), and Edmonton (Oct. 25). The Capitals game will be an early measuring-stick game, as it’s the second leg of a back-to-back against a strong opponent. Target: four points. With two already secured, the Kraken have a chance to build momentum.
Bubble teams (five-point target) – Seattle opened with a win over Anaheim despite getting heavily outshot in the first period. The target here is five points. The Kraken face Montreal twice this month (Oct. 14 and Oct. 28) and Ottawa once (Oct. 16). Ottawa has struggled early, allowing an average of 4.67 goals against through three games.
Tanker teams (two-point target) – Seattle’s lone game in this group is Oct. 20 against Philadelphia, the first leg of a back-to-back. This could be a good spot to start one of the backup goalies.
Overall, the bar to stay on pace is 11 points, and with four already secured, October is shaping up as an opportunity to get ahead of schedule.
Monthly updates
Each month, I’ll update this series to track Seattle’s progress toward the 95-point goal. After an offseason with no flashy additions, the Kraken have quickly reignited optimism with only two games played. This road trip comes at a perfect time—it’s long enough for the team to jell and provides a chance to evaluate the backup goaltending situation. Plus, Seattle’s 2024 first-round pick, Berkly Catton, remains with the team and could make his debut this month (perhaps on the road trip?).
The Kraken’s best October to date was 11 points last season, though that came in 11 games. With 10 this year, matching or surpassing that total would put them ahead of pace as they strive for 95.
Comment below with your thoughts on the Kraken’s start and your expectations for October and the season ahead.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
With two wins in two games, both against Pacific Division opponents, it was a strong opening week for the Seattle Kraken. It wasn’t perfect, but honestly, I don’t think anyone could’ve scripted a better start to the Lane Lambert era.
For the first time in franchise history, the Kraken not only won their season opener but their home opener as well, taking down the up-and-coming Anaheim Ducks 3–1. The first period was rough; Seattle was outshot 17–5, but Joey Daccord was stellar, and the game was tied 1-1 after 20 minutes.
To Seattle’s credit, most of Anaheim’s shots came from the outside and were low-danger looks, but that kind of shot differential still jumps off the page. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t at least a little worried after that first period, even with the score level.
Things turned around in the second. The Kraken tilted the ice when Brandon Montour stole a puck with some slick stick work, battled to keep possession, and set up Mason Marchment for Seattle’s second goal. At that moment, shots were 20–5 for Anaheim. The rest of the way? 25–16 for Seattle.
A different kind of game against Vegas
The matchup with Vegas had a completely different vibe, more balanced, but still a strong showing. The Golden Knights are loaded up front, so holding them to just one power-play goal (after they scored nine in their first two games) was no small feat.
Heading into overtime, Vegas had a 24–15 edge in shots, but the Kraken dominated the extra frame, controlling play and outshooting the Knights 7–3.
“On the game as a whole, in 5-on-5 play, the Kraken generated 43.8 percent of all shot volume but 57 percent of all shot quality. In regulation, the first period was the team’s strongest in each metric.”
And that doesn’t even include overtime, where the Kraken clearly built on that shot-quality advantage.
Speaking of overtime… let’s relive that winner that was buried with just 3.4 seconds left on the clock.
The Kraken have one power-play goal in five opportunities, not a big sample size, but there’s plenty to like so far. They’re working the puck below the goal line more, setting up options in the slot, and finding cross-ice seams for dangerous looks.
Here’s a look at the power-play time on ice so far:
Chandler Stephenson is logging heavy minutes while Kaapo Kakko remains out of the lineup. One name missing from the mix, though, is Jani Nyman, who was used in the one-timer spot late last season.
Other musings
The Kraken’s win over the Anaheim Ducks marked their 10th all-time victory against Anaheim, the most they’ve recorded against any opponent.
Conversely, heading into the Vegas game, the Kraken were just 3–11–1 all-time against the Golden Knights. But over the past three seasons, Seattle has flipped that script, going 3–0–1 against Vegas, including that memorable first-ever win at the Winter Classic.
The Kraken scored first in both games to open the season. That’s notable, considering they struck first in just 43 percent of their games last year, the third-lowest rate in the league. They also won less than 30 percent of the games in which they gave up the first goal, so playing from ahead is huge.
I’d really like to see Shane Wright get going on this upcoming road trip through eastern Canada. The opportunity is there, and a little momentum early could do wonders for him.
The ice has felt tilted in Seattle’s favor whenever the Jared McCann-Matty Beniers-Jordan Eberle line has been on together. That trio looks sharp and seems to be finding its rhythm again.
Ryan Winterton has also really impressed me through two games. He’s been noticeable breaking up plays and playing a strong two-way game. The coaching staff clearly trusts him too, as he didn’t miss a shift in the third period of the Vegas game.
On the flip side, Jani Nyman has averaged just 8:14 of ice time with no power-play minutes over the first two games. It’s not anything to panic about, but it’s quite a contrast from last season, when he averaged 14 minutes a night and played in almost half of Seattle’s power-play opportunities during his 12-game stint.
I’m also glad to see the Kraken organization welcome Joel Quenneville back to the league in the right way.
As much of a slog as that third period was against Vegas, that’s probably the kind of grind-it-out hockey the Kraken will need to play to beat elite, high-skill teams.
Overseas, 2025 seventh-round pick Loke Krantz made his SHL debut for Linköping HC and notched an assist in his first game.
Meanwhile, down in the desert, the Coachella Valley Firebirds got off to a rough start, dropping their home opener 5–0 to the San Diego Gulls. It could be a challenging season ahead for the Firebirds; they’re one of the youngest teams in the AHL.
Goal of the week
There were plenty to choose from with the Kraken this week, but this whole sequence was just too good to pass up.
Matty Beniers (SEA) – Has a goal and two assists on the Kraken’s four goals so far this season.
Joey Daccord (SEA) – Sporting a .968 save percentage through the Kraken’s first two games and came up big in key moments of both. According to MoneyPuck.com, he ranks fifth in the league in Goals Saved Above Expected.
Jake O’Brien (BFD/SEA) – The Kraken’s first-round pick in the 2025 draft exploded for four goals and four assists in two games over the weekend.
The week ahead
The Kraken hit the road for a six-game road trip, starting Tuesday in Montreal for the Canadiens’ home opener. When the schedule came out this summer, this stretch jumped out as a tough early-season test, especially with players learning new systems under a new coaching staff.
Getting two wins at home probably helped accelerate the buy-in from the group which should be valuable heading out on the road. This week, Seattle faces Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto. It’s still tough to gauge how good any of these teams really are and all three of these opponents already have losses. I’d be fine with three points out of a possible six, though four sure would feel nice.
What I’m watching:
Goaltending: Joey Daccord has started the first two games, but it’s hard to imagine the team wants him playing all three this week while Philipp Grubauer and Matt Murray gather dust.
Berkly Catton: I’m guessing Catton gets into a game after being a healthy scratch for the first two at home. I don’t mind the scratches, but you’d think he gets a look soon. Not sure if it means anything, but Beniers, Wright, and Winterton all made their NHL debuts on the road.
This trip should be another solid test for the Kraken. As I mentioned during the Kraken Roundtable, I just want to see them compete and be in every game.
Final thoughts
It’s early, but the vibes around the Kraken feel good — structure, effort, and a couple of new faces already making an impact. There’s still plenty to clean up, but two wins out of the gate and some promising trends under Lane Lambert? You’ll take that every time.
The preseason is officially in the books, and Opening Night is practically here. It’s the best time of year—hope is high, the standings are clean, and nobody’s been mathematically eliminated yet. The Seattle Kraken come into this season looking to bounce back, clean up their defensive play, and maybe (just maybe) surprise a few of those national pundits who’ve already written them off. But as always with this team, there are plenty of storylines to watch.
Here are 10 questions we’re asking as the Kraken dive into the 2025-26 campaign.
How many games does Berkly Catton get this season?
Berkly’s made the roster—for now—which was almost expected after his strong camp and preseason. The real question is whether he sticks around past the nine-game mark that would burn a year of his entry-level contract. Does he earn a full-time NHL spot at 19 or head back to Spokane for more seasoning? Either way, it will be fascinating to see how long he stays with the big-league team. He’s been practicing as an extra the last few days, so we’re guessing his NHL debut will have to wait beyond Thursday’s game against Anaheim.
How does Lane Lambert’s system impact the goals against?
The 2024-25 Kraken were not exactly defensive stalwarts, allowing 3.2 goals per game—24th in the NHL. Compare that to 2.83 in 2023-24 (eighth-best), and you see how much they regressed. Enter Lane Lambert, known for his structure and defensive discipline. If the team buys in, the Kraken could tighten things up significantly, which is essential if they want to hang around the playoff race.
How do they manage the goalies?
The Kraken are rolling with three goaltenders to start the season, which is… unconventional. With a jam-packed October, it makes some sense, but come November, things lighten up. Joey Daccord was probably overworked last season, so finding a better rotation will be key. How Lambert and company juggle this trio, while keeping everyone sharp, will be one of the early season intriguing storylines.
The Seattle Kraken are one of six teams currently carrying three goalies to start the season.
Matty hasn’t quite matched his rookie production since that stellar debut season. He scored 20 goals last year, respectable but a step back from the 24 he netted as a rookie. With Kaapo Kakko sidelined early, Beniers will need to drive more offense on his own. He’s still young and plenty talented, but this could be the year that defines what kind of player he’s going to be long-term. He’s been skating on a familiar line with Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle lately.
What changes are going to be made to the pregame show?
Alright, this one’s for the in-arena diehards. After more than 150 games at Climate Pledge Arena, I still make it a point to catch the full pregame show—and every season it gets a refresh. The Kraken’s production crew always finds new ways to top themselves. What surprises are they cooking up this time?
Who re-signs and who moves on?
The answer to this question probably depends on whether the Kraken are still in the playoff hunt come late February. Four key forwards—Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Eeli Tolvanen, and newcomer Mason Marchment—are all on expiring deals. That group combined for 80 goals last year. Expect at least one or two to be re-signed, but the rest could be valuable trade chips if the postseason looks out of reach.
Does Jared McCann bounce back?
McCann’s 22 goals last year weren’t bad, but they were his fewest as a Kraken in any single season. He played through an injury that required offseason surgery, which likely explains some of the dip and may have been related to him missing a good chunk of training camp. Don’t expect another 40-goal explosion like 2022–23, but a healthy McCann hitting 30 again feels realistic, and it would go a long way toward stabilizing the Kraken’s scoring.
How do the Kraken control zone entries against?
One of last season’s biggest frustrations was how easily opponents gained the Kraken’s defensive zone. Too many clean entries led to too much time defending—and too many goals against. This issue was glaring on the penalty kill, where Seattle often looked a step slow. Lambert’s emphasis on structure should help here, but it’s going to take commitment from all five skaters.
Who plays in the Olympics from the Kraken?
Philipp Grubauer (Germany) and prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (Denmark) are the only real locks for February’s Olympic tournament. Kaapo Kakko has a solid shot at making Finland’s roster (though his broken hand doesn’t help those chances), while Eeli Tolvanen could sneak in with other injuries to Finland’s roster. Brandon Montour (Canada) and Joey Daccord (USA) are in the extended pools, but both would need blistering starts to the season to make the final cut.
Will we get a return of Seattle Kraken depth scoring?
In 2022-23, the Kraken could roll four lines that could all hurt you. That team had 13 players with double-digit goals and one of the most balanced attacks in hockey. Over the last two seasons, that spark faded. This season, with new additions Frederick Gaudreau and Mason Marchment plus rookies Jani Nyman and Berkly Catton, Seattle is hoping to bring back that “anyone can score” identity. Can they rediscover that magic? We’ll find out soon enough.
Wrapping it up
Every season brings its fair share of questions, but this one feels especially juicy. Between a new coach, a hungry young core, and a few “prove-it” veterans, the Kraken are a fascinating team heading into 2025-26. Whether they surprise people or struggle again, it’s bound to be an entertaining ride.
What about you? Any burning questions you have about this 2025-26 Seattle Kraken team?
Kraken preseason is officially underway. As I have done in previous preseasons, I like to project Seattle’s playoff chances by forecasting the team’s goal scoring. You can review my last three forecasts here: 2022–23, 2023–24, and 2024–25.
This forecast looks at adjusted goals for each player on the projected Kraken roster. The “adjusted goals” metric is defined as goals scored minus empty-net goals. Based on prior analysis, teams with an adjusted goal differential of plus-one to plus-five make the playoffs more than 50 percent of the time. Adjusted goals against is the other half of that equation, but for this article, we’re only focusing on adjusted goals for.
Looking back at the 2024–25 forecast
Last season, the Kraken finished with 230 adjusted goals, an increase of 25 compared to 2023–24. My forecast missed the mark by 11.9 goals. Here’s a player-by-player breakdown:
Overall, the forecast did fine but not great. A few players came in well below expectations, Andre Burakovsky and Jared McCann among them, but Jaden Schwartz more than offset those misses, finishing 10.9 goals above what I had projected for him. That’s how forecasting tends to work: some players overshoot, others undershoot.
There were also factors that would have been tough to build into the model. Jordan Eberle’s injury was significant. Yanni Gourde also missed time with injury, and even when healthy, his production lagged. Trades always shake things up, too. While Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand were dealt at the deadline, their lost production was roughly balanced by Kaapo Kakko, who arrived in an earlier trade.
Roster unknowns for 2025–26
Unlike recent offseasons, this year’s roster still has a few question marks. Several rookies are making strong pushes out of camp, and late adjustments could happen depending on who earns spots. That makes projecting games played a little trickier, so I’ve leaned conservative with totals.
Another wrinkle: a lot of Kraken players are entering the final year of their contracts. If Seattle falls out of playoff contention by the deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see veterans moved to contenders for future assets. That uncertainty isn’t baked into this forecast, but it’s definitely a storyline to monitor.
Departures and Arrivals for 2025–26
From a pure goal-scoring standpoint, the only notable departure from last season is Bjorkstrand, who was traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline.
The Kraken made two trades this offseason that should help replace some of the goal scoring lost from last year’s roster. First, they acquired Mason Marchment from the cap-strapped Dallas Stars in mid-June. Marchment brings size, physicality, and a proven middle-six scoring touch, with three straight seasons of double-digit goals. Just a week later, the Kraken added Freddy Gaudreau from the Minnesota Wild. Gaudreau isn’t as flashy offensively, but he’s versatile, defensively reliable, and can chip in 10–15 goals while playing anywhere in the lineup (he had 18 last season and 19 in 2022-23). Together, the pair should provide depth scoring and stability that will help offset the loss of Oliver Bjorkstrand.
Based on last year’s production, the Kraken lost 41 goals but brought in 35 — and that’s in 112 fewer games played. That gap is where potential rookies like Berkly Catton, Jani Nyman, and a handful of other candidates could step in and contribute.
Scoring forecast approach
As in past seasons, I’m using each player’s last three years of games played and adjusted goals to project for 2025–26. Games played is the trickiest part to forecast — I leaned on each player’s historical average, but I’ll make the occasional subjective adjustment if I think the production rate doesn’t quite line up.
Yes, some guys have averaged 75-plus games per season, but as we saw with Eberle and Gourde last year, injuries are inevitable. Since it’s nearly impossible to predict who will go down, I also take a conservative approach to projecting games played for the upcoming season.
Forwards forecast
The most difficult part of this forecast is figuring out games played and goals for the rookies. Take Jani Nyman, for example — he scored three goals in 12 games with the Kraken during his late-season call-up and added 28 goals in 58 games for Coachella Valley. He’s a natural goal scorer, so 10 goals in 50 NHL games feels conservative… but that’s probably the right cautious estimate for now, because it’s impossible to say if he’ll be a full-time NHLer.
Berkly Catton is even tougher to predict. He’s either going to play fewer than nine games (because he burns the first year of his entry-level contract if the Kraken keep him for longer than that) or more than 50 — not much in between. I’ve been leaning toward the higher end, but without full certainty, I split the difference and set his forecast at 40 games.
Outside of the rookies, there are a couple of eyebrow-raisers in the model. Shane Wright’s 18.9-goal projection feels a little light, while Jared McCann’s looks a bit heavy. But that’s the nature of an aggregate forecast: some players run hot, some cold, and ideally it all balances out.
Defensemen forecast
Forecasting the defensemen is a bit more straightforward. The top six are pretty well set heading into the season, with Josh Mahura likely sliding into the seventh spot if everyone stays healthy. The one new face, Ryan Lindgren, brings plenty of defensive reliability but isn’t exactly known for his goal scoring.
One player who could push the totals higher is Ryker Evans. He’s shown steady progress the last couple of years, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he chipped in a bit more offense as his role continues to grow.
Putting it together
When you combine the forwards and defensemen, the forecast lands at 246.3 adjusted goals for the 2025–26 season. That’s a 16-goal bump over last year, a total that would’ve ranked ninth in the NHL in 2024–25. It feels a little optimistic, but we’ll stick with it for now.
Other considerations
Coaching/system tweaks – The biggest change this offseason came behind the bench with the hiring of Lane Lambert. His teams have been known for playing structured, defensively sound hockey. That could tighten things up in Seattle’s end, but Lambert has also emphasized that creating turnovers in the defensive zone can fuel offense. How that balance plays out will be worth tracking. Lambert mentioned he thought Nyman’s goal in Seattle’s 5-3 preseason win over Vancouver was an excellent example of this. “The thing that excited me about that goal was that it started in the D-zone,” Lambert said. “We killed the play, and then it ended up in the back of their net. So from my perspective, that’s what we’re talking about when we’re talking about defense translating into offense.”
Power play – Seattle finished 23rd in the league on the power play last year, leaving plenty of room for improvement. With a new staff and some fresh personnel looks, there’s cautious optimism that the power play could finally take a step forward.
Injuries – The ultimate wild card. If the Kraken’s top six can stay mostly healthy, it would go a long way toward hitting (or even exceeding) this forecast.
Will Seattle improve offensively?
My projection for the Kraken’s 2025–26 season comes in at 246.3 adjusted goals, a 16-goal bump from last year. That total would have ranked ninth in the NHL a season ago. Still, the big questions remain: can the young players fighting for roster spots make an impact right away, and how much will Lambert’s system influence scoring, for better or worse?
For now, Kraken fans should keep expectations measured but optimistic. There’s clear upside here, but also plenty of volatility depending on health, development, and where the team sits at the trade deadline. As the season progresses, I’ll layer in adjusted-goals-against numbers to give a full playoff outlook and track how close (or far) this projection ends up.
What do you think, are my numbers too high, too low, or just right? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.
Everywhere I go, people keep asking me the same thing: “So, are the Kraken going to be any good this year?” My answer? Better than the “experts” think.
Now, let’s not get carried away, I’m not penciling them in for a Stanley Cup parade just yet. But I do believe this team will be noticeably better, way more competitive, and a lot more fun to watch than last season’s version. The front office didn’t make any headline-grabbing splashes this summer, but they made subtle moves that improved the roster while leaving room for young players to step in. Combine that with a healthier lineup, a new coaching voice, and a few kids ready to pop, and you’ve got reasons to be optimistic.
Here are five reasons I think Kraken hockey is going to be a lot more fun this season.
Better than the results of last season
The Kraken weren’t nearly as bad as their record suggested. One of my favorite “sneaky” stats to look at is goal differential without empty-netters. Historically, teams hovering between zero and plus-five in that category have about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Last year, the Kraken finished at -11 in that stat, which is not good, but not bottom-of-the-league bad either. That put them 19th overall in this metric, while their actual spot in the standings was 27th. Translation: they played closer to a middle-of-the-pack team than the record showed. Close some gaps defensively, turn a handful of one-goal losses into wins, and you’ve got a much more competitive season ahead.
A new coach, a new mindset
It’s no secret the Kraken were way too easy to score on last season. Enter Lane Lambert, who replaces Dan Bylsma behind the bench. Lambert’s reputation leans defensive, and that’s exactly the kind of adjustment this team needed. Whether you call it the “new coach bump” or simply a philosophical shift, a more structured, defense-first approach should chip away at that goal differential problem right away.
Starting healthier and deeper than before
Injuries don’t get talked about enough when people assess the Kraken’s struggles last year. Jordan Eberle was off to one of the best starts of his career before missing 39 games. Vince Dunn, arguably the team’s most important defenseman, missed 20. And the real problem wasn’t just losing stars, it was the massive drop-off to their replacements.
This season, the Kraken are better positioned to absorb those inevitable injuries. The depth chart has more NHL-ready rookies and supporting players that appear ready to jump up from Coachella Valley without the same production cliff we saw last year. Jani Nyman, Ryan Winterton, Logan Morrison, Ville Ottavainen, and a whole host of others have significant pro experience now, and if they don’t make the Opening Night roster, they should be able to slide in and be more impactful than in past call-ups.
Complimentary new pieces
No, the Kraken didn’t dominate the offseason headlines, but their moves were strategic. Mason Marchment brings a net-front presence the team has lacked since its inception. Frederick Gaudreau is a right-shot center who kills penalties, chips in offense, and happens to be excellent in the shootout (hey, that might even swing a game or two).
On the back end, Ryan Lindgren adds depth and grit to the blue line, while also giving the Kraken penalty kill a lift. None of these moves are splashy, but together they round out a roster that already had a solid foundation.
The kids are coming
This is the most exciting part. Shane Wright proved last year that he’s ready to be a real contributor. After a slow start and a short stint as a healthy scratch, he turned it on, finishing with 42 points in 61 games, a .7 points-per-game pace. If that’s his baseline, Year 2 could be a lot of fun.
Matty Beniers, meanwhile, hasn’t matched the offensive pace of his Calder season, but the talent is undeniable. Expect a motivated Beniers to take another step.
And then there’s the rookie watch. Berkly Catton, the Kraken’s 2024 first-round pick, has already proven everything he can at the junior level with 92 goals and 133 assists in his last 125 WHL games. He has the skill set to be a game-changer and will get every opportunity to stick with the big club. Jani Nyman might not start the season in Seattle, but after a strong cameo last spring, I’d bet on him playing significant NHL minutes before the year is out.
This Kraken team isn’t a Stanley Cup contender, and that’s fine. What they are is a team with an outside shot at the playoffs, a chance to be competitive deep into March, and, most importantly, a roster that’s a lot more fun to watch than last year’s.
If the top players stay healthy, if the defense tightens up, and if the kids keep progressing, Seattle could be playing meaningful hockey when it matters most. At the very least, fans should buckle up for a season with more goals, more growth, and more hope for the future.
The Seattle Kraken wrapped up the 2024–25 season in 27th place. Not great! But while we’ve already highlighted some silver linings from this past season, it might be even more important to look at the other side: the subtle, micro-level areas where Seattle struggled. These aren’t always the headline stats, but they’re the kind of details that can influence the outcome of a season.
Today, we’re digging into a few of those micro-opportunities. We will cover things like face-offs, overtime games, outcomes when trailing first, and back-to-back games. None of these categories alone can explain Seattle’s struggles, but together they paint a picture of where the Kraken left points on the table and where improvements could show up next season.
Face-offs
Definition: Nobody really needs a primer on face-offs, but it’s worth pointing out that this is a flawed stat. The more important measure would be possession after a face-off, but the NHL doesn’t provide this publicly. That said, face-off wins and losses are still a leading indicator for possession, so we’re going to use them until better data becomes available.
What the data shows
The Kraken finished 24th in the league in face-off win percentage at 48.6 percent. While they’ve never been a strong face-off team, this was actually the highest win rate in their brief franchise history.
Outlook
The Kraken leaned heavily on left-shot Chandler Stephenson in the circle last season. He led the team in both total draws and win percentage, and he was deployed at an especially high rate during the penalty kill, where he took nearly 50 percent of Seattle’s shorthanded face-offs, regardless of whether it was his strong or weak side. This is where the addition of right-shot center Frédérick Gaudreau should give Lane Lambert more flexibility, particularly on defensive-zone PK draws.
I don’t think Seattle’s success rate will suddenly jump above 50 percent, but in key situations, they should see improvement, and that could indirectly help reduce goals against. We could see some improvement from Shane Wright and Matty Beniers in the circle, as well, which could improve Seattle’s face-off abilities.
Overtime games
Definition: This one might feel a little odd to track, but forcing games into overtime is an easy way to add points in the standings. Of course, it’s easier said than done.
What the data shows
Seattle tied for 27th with just 13 overtime games played. The league median was 17, which, at a minimum, would have meant four more points in the standings. With the Kraken’s OT winning percentage sitting at 54 percent, those extra games could reasonably have netted another two points.
Outlook
I don’t think Lambert has a “strategy” to push games into overtime, but his coaching style may lead to more tight, low-event hockey. That should naturally result in more one-goal games that bleed into extra time. During his tenure with the Islanders, 24.4 percent of games went to OT compared to just 15.8 percent for the Kraken in 2024–25. That’s a big difference.
Trailing first
Definition: Any time the opponent scores the first goal of the game.
What the data shows
The Kraken trailed first in 57 percent of their games, their highest rate since the inaugural season. Last season, teams that gave up the first goal only came back to win 34.3 percent of the time
Outlook
This is another category where Lambert’s structure could help. From 2021–22 through 2024–25, the Islanders played 328 games. In the 127 games Lambert coached, his team allowed the first goal 46.5 percent of the time. In the games he didn’t coach, that number jumped to 54.2 percent. That’s a meaningful gap in an area that could help Seattle fetch a few more points.
Wins in back-to-back games
Definition: Games won when playing on consecutive nights.
What the data shows
This was a sore spot all year and one I brought up often. The Kraken have never been great in back-to-backs, but in their inaugural season, they managed three wins when playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Last year? They won ZERO games when playing on the second night of a back-to-back and didn’t even manage a single point in this scenario, going 0-12-0.
Seattle’s problems went beyond goaltending, though Philipp Grubauer’s numbers didn’t help. He started six of the 12 back-to-back games, but the team averaged just 1.3 goals scored in those situations, dead last in the league.
Outlook
Lambert made it a point in his introductory press conference that back-to-backs were an area Seattle will improve in. “That’s going to change because of the structure and the detail.” Because honestly… it can’t get worse, right? …Right?!?!
Hope for improvement?
When you finish 27th in the standings, it’s easy to get bogged down by the negatives. But zooming in on these micro-level areas shows exactly how thin the margins can be in the NHL. A few more face-off wins, a handful of extra overtime appearances, stronger starts, and better results in back-to-backs, and those little improvements could easily swing a season by six to 10 points in the standings.
These aren’t the major items that the Kraken can change to become a potential playoff team, but it’s clear these are opportunities the Kraken can tighten up. If Lambert’s systems help move the needle in these subtle areas, and if Seattle maintains the things they did do well, then maybe next season we’re talking about meaningful games in March, instead of more micro-opportunities left on the table.
