Training camp officially gets underway Thursday, which brings with it a number of fun topics to monitor and discuss. The Kraken have a new coaching staff, a couple splashy offseason acquisitions, and a top prospect likely making the jump to becoming a full-time NHLer.
Those changes bring burning questions, though, so our team got together to talk about them. Enjoy!
Q1: Did anyone impress you at rookie camp or during the Rookie Faceoff games?
John Barr: I watched Andrei Loshko from time to time last season when he was playing for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in the QMJHL. I generally liked what I saw, but it’s always tough to make a thorough analysis when you’re only catching periodic views on a less-than-ideal streaming feed.
In rookie camp, he helped confirm my impressions by playing well on both sides of the puck and scoring a goal during the first showcase game in LA. He looked like one of the most developed prospects, and I’m curious about what the Kraken’s plans are for him. He’s eligible to play for the Coachella Valley Firebirds this season, but he remains unsigned by the Seattle Kraken. They must sign Loshko by June 1, 2025, or they will lose his rights, enabling him to sign with any team.
Blaiz Grubic: Finnish goaltender Niklas Kokko showcased his impressive skills during both rookie camp and the prospect game against the Colorado Avalanche. The 2022 second-round pick allowed just one goal and posted a .966 save percentage. He’s expected to play for either the Coachella Valley Firebirds in the AHL or the Kansas City Mavericks in the ECHL. Both teams will stream their games on FloHockey, so I’ll be tuning in to watch his development on North American ice this season.
Curtis Isacke: Lleyton Roed stood out to me with his pace, polish, and compete level. He probably should stand out as one of the oldest players in camp, but it’s not like he’s a multi-year AHL veteran at the end of the (ahem) road. He got into 10 games for Coachella Valley last season and is likely in line for a full slate of games this year. I wonder whether he can carve out a niche as an NHL checking forward in the future. He’s never going to be a top-of-the-roster scorer, but could he be a player who keeps the pace up, pressures opponents at even strength and on the penalty kill, and uses his speed for opportunistic strikes? I’m curious to find out more after a solid camp.
Darren Brown: Alright, well, you guys took all the obvious ones, but what about Nathan Villeneuve? At 18 and having just been drafted this past summer, he still has a long way to go before he’s NHL-ready. But he’s definitely pesky, and if he makes it to the big club one day, he’s going to be extremely annoying for opponents. I like what he brings.
Q2: Any other takeaways from watching the rookies at rookie camp?
Blaiz: The Firkus Circus is in town! Jagger Firkus, last season’s leading CHL scorer with 126 points, made a position switch from center to right wing. With the Kraken drafting Berkly Catton and already having Matty Beniers and Shane Wright at center, that change could make sense for Firkus’s long-term viability.
Firkus performed well at right wing, scoring one goal and three assists in two Rookie Faceoff games. One thing to keep an eye on: Catton was awarded one of the alternate captain roles, and Firkus was not. This could just be a “sharing the wealth” situation, but we’ll be looking for Firkus to emerge as a leader among the younger guys at training camp.
Darren: Yeah, I wouldn’t read too much into that Rookie Faceoff captaincy thing, although maybe it does say something about Catton’s maturity, considering he was one of the younger guys there.
My other takeaway? Lil’ Jani Nyman is a big kid. We knew this already, but I forgot just how enormous he looks on skates when he’s up close. It was fun watching him get paired up against Ville Ottavainen in drills.
John: It was interesting how much the older guys stood out compared to the younger ones, even though there’s only a year or two difference between some of them. Maybe this should’ve been expected, but guys like Logan Morrison, Tucker Robertson, Jacob Melanson, Ottavainen, and several others looked much closer to making it to the NHL than the younger guys. Both Ottavainen and Melanson seem ready to step into some NHL games if injuries force the Kraken to lean on Firebirds players in a pinch. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them get called up at some point.
Curtis: What struck me most was the sheer number of intriguing players. Even without a few European professionals (like Oscar Fisker Mølgaard and Visa Vedenpää) and the college players, there were potential NHLers all over the ice. In past rookie and development camps, the total number of players was either much lower or the group was padded out with invitees. That wasn’t the case this time. As we mentioned in our prospect ranking last week, the “middle class” of Seattle’s prospect pool is incredibly deep, and it would be the envy of almost any organization.
Q3: Anything you are looking for during the first week of training camp?
Curtis: There’s a lot happening in the first week of training camp. Most of the rookies will still be around, looking to make an impression. The veterans are getting up to speed with a full-speed, competitive environment. And this year, we have a new coaching staff implementing its camp.
It’s that last part that will have my attention early on. What energy and compete level does the staff set? How are they deployed in managing specific drills and players? We’ve credited Jess Campbell and the Coachella Valley staff in the past for developing the skating games of Tye Kartye, Logan Morrison, and Shane Wright. How does that manifest, if at all, in what we see on the ice from a technique and drilling perspective? And then, of course, there’s the question of X’s and O’s. Do we start to see different breakout, neutral zone, or in-zone schemes practiced? I’ll be watching the coaching closely.
Darren: I touched on this briefly in the “Five Storylines” article I published Wednesday, but I’m really interested in seeing how Matty Beniers and Shane Wright perform. The Kraken are shaping up to be a three-headed monster of young stars once Catton arrives on the scene, but this year is critical for Beniers and Wright to each take big steps in their young careers. While Beniers has secured a huge seven-year contract, he should still be motivated to return to the form he showed in his rookie season. And Wright must be champing at the bit to make the full-time NHL roster—and be a key contributor—for the first time.
Blaiz: I’m most excited to see the Kraken back on the ice and skating together. With a stronger roster on paper than last year, there’s plenty of reason for optimism. While all the gameday roster spots seem to be filled, assuming Wright and Evans take full-time spots, the competitive nature of training camp could lead to surprises. Players like Winterton, Morrison, Roed, Robertson, Melanson, and Ottavainen could make strong cases for roster spots and potentially force some tough decisions from the front office.
John: Like Blaiz, I’m just really excited to see the team back on the ice, and I don’t think I’ve ever been more eager to watch a preseason game. If I had to be more specific, I’d say I’m excited to see how the power play units will work. A lot can and will change with the power play, but we should get an early look at how Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson might fit into the Kraken power play this season.
Q4: What is your biggest question for the Seattle Kraken that you expect to be answered in training camp?
Blaiz: My biggest question is whether the Kraken will make a trade to address their cap situation. With only a sliver of cap space left if they were to carry no extra players (that won’t happen), the team is in a tight spot. While the emergency recall option could provide temporary relief, it’s not a long-term solution.
The emergency recall provision allows the Kraken to exceed the cap by $875K (league minimum $775K + $100K). To use this, the Kraken would have to play at least one game with fewer than 18 skaters and two goalies. Given the front office’s playoff aspirations, a trade seems more likely. Sound Of Hockey’s own John Barr has already speculated on potential trade candidates, and training camp will offer a clearer picture of the team’s roster needs and trade possibilities.
Darren: Blaiz nailed it—that’s the biggest question.
Curtis: I expect to have a better handle on Shane Wright’s trajectory and role by the end of camp. Is Wright the player who looked fast, confident, and like a heady facilitator in his few games last spring? Or does he still look a bit green, playing reactively to NHL pace and physicality? The steps he took in Coachella Valley last season make me confident that last year’s NHL stint wasn’t fool’s gold. But he needs to prove it on NHL ice. If he does, we’ll start looking at his power play role and how his even-strength deployment compares with Matty Beniers. Is Wright attached to a steady veteran or trusted to take control of a top line? We’ll learn more as the season progresses, but I expect to know much more in three weeks about where Wright fits in this year.
John: There are a lot of questions that will take longer than training camp to answer, but like Blaiz said, you have to wonder how they’ll figure out their cap situation. Technically, they can start the season with a cap-compliant roster of 21 players, but only three out of 32 teams started that lean last year. Something’s got to give, and I imagine it’ll be resolved by the end of October at the latest.
Q5: What player has the most to gain or prove during development camp?
Curtis: Andre Burakovsky feels like he has a lot on the line early in the season, and it starts in camp. With a new coaching administration focused on a speed-based, attacking style that plays to Burakovsky’s strengths, he’s set up with every opportunity to recapture his pre- and early-Kraken form. We know he’s been plagued by injuries over the past 18 months and struggled to find his place in last year’s stagnant offense. I’m eager to see if the coaching staff has a plan to tap into his talents and if Burakovsky comes back with a renewed jump in his step.
Blaiz: I’ll be keeping a close eye on Ryan Winterton during the first week of training camp. Winterton not traveling to the LA Rookie Faceoff tournament suggests he’s higher on the depth chart than previously thought. With the Kraken needing to fill out their roster and the potential for a trade to clear cap space, Winterton could have a real opportunity to earn a spot. At 21, playing time is crucial for his development. If he continues to impress during camp, he could secure a spot on the gameday roster and contribute to the Kraken’s success this season.
John: I think we’ve all slotted Shane Wright into the roster this season, but he still needs to show up, so I’d say he has the most to prove this camp. I think it’s important for him to feel like he’s truly earned his spot and that he’ll help make the team better.
Darren: I think Beniers and Wright are obvious answers here, but what about newcomers Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour? Joining a new team often comes with growing pains, so will they slot right in and start producing? I’ll be watching for signs of chemistry between these two high-profile acquisitions and their linemates, especially in Stephenson’s case.
Is there anything you’re looking for during training camp? If so, share it with us in the comments section.
The Seattle Kraken, for the first time in their young franchise history, are facing a critical challenge—navigating the NHL salary cap with no wiggle room. With fewer than 30 days until the roster is locked, and barring an unfortunate injury that would require the use of long-term injured reserve, the Kraken will need to make a trade to create some roster flexibility.
A tight cap squeeze
Earlier this summer, fans applauded the announcement of Matty Beniers being locked up with a seven-year contract, but the $7.14 million AAV has pushed the Kraken close to the upper limit of the NHL salary cap for the 2024-25 season. Let’s take a closer look at the salaries on the roster.
We are reasonably certain that the 12th forward and 20th overall slot will be filled by Shane Wright, with a salary cap hit of $886,666. That leaves just $780K of cap space to cover the remaining roster spots, which is only enough to add a player on a league-minimum salary, such as defenseman Josh Mahura or forward Ben Meyers.
The maximum roster size in the NHL is 23 players for most of the season, with no size limit after the trade deadline. During the 2023-24 season, the Kraken averaged a roster size of 22.5 players up until the trade deadline last season, and 94 percent of the time, the Kraken had an active roster size of 22 or more. In other words, an active roster size of 21 players is extremely risky and uncommon.
No matter how you look at it, the Kraken do not have the cap space to carry a 22nd player on the roster right now.
Injuries happen
The Kraken dealt with a host of injuries last season. When a player is placed on short-term injured reserve, a roster spot opens up for a call-up, but the salary cap hit of the injured player still counts toward the team’s overall cap calculation. Last season, when you add up the scratches and players on injured reserve, the Kraken averaged 3.8 players per game that weren’t playing but needed to fit under the salary cap.
For example, in their game against the LA Kings on Dec. 20, they had 20 players in the lineup, three scratched players, and four players on injured reserve, for a total of 27 players that needed to fit under last season’s salary cap.
Long-term injured reserve
There are scenarios where a team will place a player on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) when they are expected to miss at least 10 games or 24 days. In those cases, the team is given salary cap relief for the duration of that player’s time on LTIR.
There was some concern about a possible injury to Oliver Bjorkstrand when he was out of the lineup for Denmark’s Olympic qualifying games at the end of August. If Bjorkstrand were expected to miss more than 10 games or 24 days, that could have been a short-term solution to the Kraken’s salary cap issue. Fortunately, we received confirmation from the Kraken organization that Oliver Bjorkstrand is expected to be fully ready for camp.
Lineup competition
Another reason it is important to have additional players on your roster is to maintain competition for roster spots. Extra players create competition for spots in the lineup every game, which helps maintain a high level of performance. When players know their place in the lineup is not guaranteed, it pushes them to continually improve their skills, work harder in practice, and perform at their best during games.
Additionally, it helps develop depth throughout the roster, as players who might otherwise become complacent are driven to stay sharp and ready to contribute whenever called upon. A good example of this level of competition was during the 2022-23 season when Ryan Donato, Daniel Sprong, and Morgan Geekie were often competing for two spots in the lineup. If the Kraken are unable to fit additional players into their lineup, it could lead to complacency among some individuals, even if it’s completely subconscious.
Is a trade coming?
All signs point to a trade not just being likely, but necessary, given the Kraken’s current situation. Ideally, the Kraken would move roughly $3 million off the roster, which would open up space for three additional roster spots for players on league-minimum contracts.
Looking at the current roster, the most likely candidate for a trade would be fan favorite Brandon Tanev. While Tanev still provides significant value in penalty killing and bringing energy to the lineup, Tye Kartye has been able to play a similar role at a third of Tanev’s $3.5 million salary cap hit. Of course, making a trade requires two sides to agree, and other teams might not see the same value in Tanev, which could mean that someone else would need to be traded. As painful as it is to say, Yanni Gourde is another candidate that would need to be considered. Gourde carries a $5.2 million cap hit and might require the Kraken to retain some salary in a trade.
Navigating the tight salary cap while maintaining a competitive roster will require some tough decisions, including the possibility of trading beloved players like Tanev or Gourde. These moves, though challenging, are necessary to create the roster flexibility Seattle will need to compete this season. As the season approaches, all eyes will be on the Kraken’s front office to see how they maneuver through this cap crunch.
What are your thoughts? How would you handle this situation if you were Ron Francis?
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Seattle’s defense got a significant upgrade this offseason. Brandon Montour, fresh off a Stanley Cup win with the Florida Panthers, signed a hefty seven-year, $50 million contract with the Kraken on the opening day of free agency. This commitment is underscored by a no-trade clause for the first three years, which then transitions to a modified NTC for the remainder of the deal. Let’s delve into Montour’s playing style and what Kraken fans can expect from their newest defenseman.
Montour’s offensive prowess
Montour’s offensive prowess is a cornerstone of his game. Over the past two seasons, he’s amassed an impressive 106 points in 146 games, with a career-best 73-point campaign in 2022-23. His ability to move the puck and generate offense from the back end is a significant upgrade for the Kraken.
Seattle’s previous reliance on a dump-and-chase style can be improved with Montour’s puck-moving ability, which will allow for more controlled entries and smooth transitions. His right-handed shot will complement the team’s existing defensive corps, and his ability to jump into the rush while maintaining situational awareness will add a new dimension to their offensive attack. The smooth-skating defenseman excels at starting the breakout with quick passes to get the puck moving up the ice. Here are a few clips of Montour making the first pass.
Shot selection
Adam Larsson has led Kraken defensemen in shots since the team’s inception with 392. Montour easily eclipses that mark, with 563 shots during the same time frame. This penchant for shooting will be welcomed by the Kraken.
As illustrated in the provided heatmaps (source: MoneyPuck), Montour’s shots are primarily concentrated at the point, but he’s not afraid to move around the ice and take shots from various angles. His ability to generate a high volume of shots, especially from long range, will be instrumental in creating scoring opportunities by generating rebounds and deflections.
Montour’s familiarity with the 1-3-1 power play strategy, a system also utilized by the Seattle Kraken, played a role in his shooting habits. This formation often anchors the power play quarterback at the point, which aligns with Montour’s primary shooting location.
Overall, Montour’s shooting style and offensive instincts make him a valuable addition to the Kraken’s blue line. His ability to generate shots and create scoring chances will be a key asset for the team as they strive for success.
Defensive abilities
While Montour is primarily known for his offensive contributions, he also possesses solid defensive skills. He’s positionally sound, adept at breaking up plays with his poke check, and effective at clogging passing lanes. Contrary to what his offensive reputation might suggest, Montour plays a more conservative defensive style, prioritizing his positional responsibilities over unnecessary offensive ventures.
Montour’s defensive play is heavily influenced by the systems implemented by the Florida Panthers. Through careful observation, it’s evident that Montour adheres to specific assignments in various zones, minimizing risky plays and prioritizing defensive responsibility.
Offense zone defense
Whilst playing defense in the offensive zone, Montour primarily occupies the point position. He’s quick to exit the zone once the puck is controlled by the opposing team, demonstrating his conservative approach to defense.
When the opponent contests but does not control puck along the boards, Montour does not hesitate to pinch and apply pressure to the opposing winger, aiming to regain possession. However, he’s always mindful of maintaining proper coverage, ensuring that a forward is in position to cover defense and limit odd-man rushes.
Here are a few clips of Montour pinching to maintain puck possession.
Given the Kraken’s similar defensive strategies, Montour’s familiarity with these tactics should allow him to seamlessly integrate into the team’s system.
Defensive zone
In the defensive zone, his home is in front of the net and in the corners. He is constantly scanning the ice for potential threats. Communication is key, and the right-shot defenseman can be seen during play talking to his teammates and pointing to opponents to ensure defensive coverage.
While Montour isn’t known for delivering heavy hits, he’s adept at using his body to separate the puck carrier from the puck and subsequently retrieving it. Once he gains possession, his puck-handling skills come into play, allowing him to quickly move the puck to a teammate and ensure his team keeps control.
The fast-paced nature of hockey often leads to odd-man rushes, and Montour’s poke check is a valuable asset in these situations. His ability to anticipate passes, combined with his willingness to sacrifice his body to block shots, makes him a formidable defender. Here are some clips of Montour’s poke checks.
The power play quarterback
Montour’s contributions extend beyond even-strength play, as evidenced by his league-leading average of 4:05 of average power play time per game over the past two seasons. While his goal production on the man advantage has been modest (four goals in two years), he’s established himself as a top distributor, ranking fifth in the NHL among defensemen with 46 power play assists during the same timeframe.
His role as a power play quarterback revolves around facilitating puck movement and creating scoring opportunities. The addition of Montour provides the Kraken with a formidable one-two punch alongside Vince Dunn, who will surely quarterback the other unit. Sharing the workload could potentially lead to a decrease in Montour’s power play time, as both he and Dunn will command plenty of opportunities.
It’s worth acknowledging the dip in Montour’s power play production during the 2023-24 season, coinciding with the emergence of Sam Reinhart and his 57 goals. Reinhart playing the bumper position, coupled with the Panthers’ strategy of cycling the puck low, limited Montour’s direct opportunities for assists. Check out this clip of a textbook Panthers power-play goal.
If the NHL counted third assists, Montour’s season totals would have definitely been higher. Regardless, Montour remained a valuable contributor to one of the league’s best power plays. The Florida Panthers power play was the fourth best in the NHL over the last two years, scoring 126 goals.
Montour’s experience and puck-moving abilities will be a significant asset for the Kraken’s special teams unit.
Coming back from injury
Following a tough Stanley Cup Final defeat to end the 2022-23 season and subsequent surgery to repair a torn labrum, Montour missed the first 16 games to start 2023-24. Despite returning to action and averaging 23:13 of ice time, Montour struggled to regain his pre-injury scoring touch during the early stages of the season. He was limited to 11 points in the first 36 games.
However, as the season progressed, his play began to show signs of improvement. Over the final 30 games, he demonstrated a significant uptick in production, averaging .73 points per game. This is equivalent to a 60-point pace for a full season. This surge suggests that Montour has fully regained his strength and confidence, and it bodes well for his potential in Seattle.
There is a lot going on in the following visualization (source: HockeyViz). What these graphics show is when Montour is on the ice, how do all the Panthers perform as a team? The image on the left is the 2022-23 season, and the right image is the 2023-24 season.
Here are my three takeaways from this data.
The top left heatmap for the 2023-24 season shows when Montour is on the ice, the even-strength offense heavily favored to Montour’s side of the ice.
The bottom left heatmap for the 2023-24 season shows very few shots are coming from the right side, indicating strong defense.
The top right heatmap shows Florida’s power-play shots. In the 2022-23 season, a bigger portion of the team’s shots were from the point than in 2023-24. That could be due to team strategy and Sam Reinhart’s team-leading 27 power-play goals.
Montour will boost the Kraken
Brandon Montour’s addition to the Seattle Kraken is a significant boost to their already strong defensive corps. The Kraken were already a top-10 team in goals against (232) prior to Montour’s arrival, and his presence will only further solidify their defensive foundation.
Beyond his defensive contributions, Montour’s offensive abilities offer the potential to enhance the Kraken’s scoring capabilities. His skillset aligns well with the team’s strategy, and his presence on the blue line will undoubtedly make them a better team.
Kraken fans can eagerly anticipate seeing Montour in a Kraken jersey when training camp begins on Sept 19. If you have any comments or questions, please leave them below. You can find me on the X at @blaizg.
As the Kraken embark on their fourth season, Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord are set to again share time between the pipes. Seattle was a top-10 team in goals against (232) and save percentage (.909) during the 2023-24 season, but notably, it was the only top-10 team in goals against that missed the playoffs.
Kraken goaltending has improved every year since the team’s inception. Will it take another positive step in the upcoming season?
Goalies under contract
Grubauer and Daccord are the only two goaltenders under contract with NHL experience within the Kraken organization. Grubauer has three years remaining on his contract with an annual cap hit of $5.9 million. Daccord is entering the final year of his two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.2 million. General manager Ron Francis will need to make a decision on Daccord’s future within the next year, but at least to start the season, and barring injury, the goaltending positions do not appear to be open for competition.
How they fared last year
Grubauer has faced scrutiny for his performance over the first three years of his Kraken tenure, some of which is warranted; his save percentage has yet to eclipse .900 for a full season with Seattle. However, as Kraken goaltending as a whole has improved year over year, he too has taken positive steps with each campaign, with last season being his best statistically since joining the Kraken.
Grubauer missed two months due to a lower-body injury between December and February, limiting him to 36 games on the season. Even after he returned, then-coach Dave Hakstol continued running Daccord out as the starter for a couple more weeks before Grubauer finally returned to game action on Feb. 13, when he re-took the 1A goaltender role for the remainder of the season, playing in 19 games down the stretch.
During this span, he posted a .911 save percentage and a 2.52 goals-against average (GAA). If you exclude the game against Montreal on Mar. 24, when he was pulled, his save percentage improves to .918. The Kraken as a whole did not fare well in their final 30 games, going 13-14-3, but Grubauer was in net for nine of the 13 wins. He also faced tougher competition, starting seven games against playoff-bound teams compared to Daccord’s four. Grubauer finished the season with a 9-7-1 record over his last 17 starts.
The 2023-24 season marked Daccord’s full-time arrival in the NHL. The 27-year-old goaltender was not eligible to be considered a rookie but made a strong impression in his first full season. His standout moment came in front of 47,000 fans during the Winter Classic, where he shutout the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, 3-0.
He also played a key role in the Kraken’s franchise-best nine-game winning streak. Unfortunately, following the streak, the Kraken went 2-6-1 and fell out of playoff contention. Daccord finished the season with 50 games played and ranked sixth in the NHL in GAA (2.46) and save percentage (.915). However, he cooled off in the latter part of the season, finishing 4-7-2 with a .898 save percentage and a 2.73 GAA from mid-February onward.
Joey Daccord and Yanni Gourde answer questions following the 2024 Winter Classic. (Photo/Darren Brown)
Who is the starting goaltender?
Both goalies made a case to be the starter with their performances last season. But who will ultimately snag that “1A” role to start 2024-25?
The case for Grubauer
Grubauer finished last season strong and has the experience and contract to be the Kraken’s starter. Though that big contract isn’t the reason to give him the job, the Kraken (and I) want to see him succeed, and he’ll be given the opportunity to do so. At 32 years old, staying healthy, getting into a rhythm early in the season, and continuing his solid play from last season are crucial.
The case for Daccord
Daccord excelled when Grubauer was sidelined, leading the Kraken to a 12-7-3 record with a .935 save percentage and a 1.996 GAA—numbers that would be worthy of Vezina consideration if maintained for a full season. However, these numbers dropped once Grubauer returned, and the Kraken faded from the playoff discussion. New head coach Dan Bylsma has seen Daccord’s success firsthand for two years at the AHL level, which means he will not hesitate to swap goalies if either netminder struggles.
Philipp Grubauer (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Joey Daccord (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The “Starter”
My projection is the Kraken will likely continue their 1A/1B goaltender strategy in the 2024-25 season, with Grubauer starting as the 1A and Daccord as the 1B. I project a 60/40 split in starts, but this will be fluid as the season progresses. Hopefully, the coaching staff can get both goalies operating at peak performance, giving the Kraken a stable duo for the entire season. Grubauer’s play at the end of last season is the main reason for getting the 1A role, but he will have to work and continue to perform to keep it. Competition here is a good thing.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
Three goalies are expected to compete for the AHL affiliate roster this year.
Ales Stezka: Signed a one-year, two-way deal.
Niklas Kokko: Drafted in the second round of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft.
Victor Ostman: Undrafted free agent signed from the University of Maine.
One of the younger goalies, Kokko or Ostman, will likely play in the ECHL with the Kansas City Mavericks. Kokko is transitioning from Liiga and will need time to adjust to the North American game. Ostman recently signed as a free agent out of college. My hunch is that Ostman will be assigned to the ECHL, Kokko will be the backup in Coachella Valley, and Stezka will be the starter. If the Kraken need to recall a goalie during the year, it will be interesting to see who they bring up. Stezka is waiver-eligible and could be claimed by another team, while Kokko and Ostman are exempt from waivers, though that shouldn’t prevent Stezka from getting a callup if he’s needed at the NHL level. All three goaltenders have zero NHL experience.
To be clear, goaltending was not the Kraken’s issue last year. With a solid blue line, if they can continue to improve in this area, they will be a very difficult team to score against. However, I expect some regression as the Kraken focus on increasing goal scoring, as the extra pressure to create offense could lead to defensive lapses. Bylsma has two quality goaltenders, but the depth chart ends there, so Seattle will also need good health from Daccord and Grubauer. Assuming both do remain healthy, competition between Grubauer and Daccord should help push each goaltender to get better.
I’m ready with the “Gruuuuuuu” and “Joey, Joey, Joey” chants when the Kraken hit the ice in a few weeks. If you have any comments or questions, please leave them below. You can find me on the X at @blaizg.
A few weeks ago, on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we discussed whether the 2024-25 Seattle Kraken are a playoff team. The conclusion was that we don’t know yet. Talent-wise, they are better than last season’s roster, and their goal scoring should improve enough to give them a shot at reaching the postseason.
However, for every new team entering the playoff picture in a season, another playoff team from the previous year must drop out. To get a better idea of which teams might miss the playoffs to make room, I decided to forecast the goal scoring of all Pacific Division teams using the same methodology I used when forecasting the Kraken. This way, we can identify some of the potential teams that might drop out of the playoffs next spring.
Forecasting from the bottom up
Let me say this up front: forecasting is inherently flawed. You are making predictions and assumptions about things with many uncontrollable variables. Nobody knows who might suffer a serious injury or have a breakout year in goal scoring. We simply use the information we have and try to apply it to future outcomes. It’s not perfect, and running it through a more complex statistical model doesn’t guarantee it is “less wrong.”
I will keep it very simple by using a bottom-up approach to forecast the goals scored by every notable player on a roster. For NHL players, I will examine the last three seasons of games played, adjusted goals scored, and average goals scored per game. Then, I will estimate the number of games each team will play and multiply that by their average goals per game to get a forecasted adjusted-goals total for each player. For rookies expected to play in the league, I had to take a more subjective approach by looking at how similar rookies have performed in their first season.
Additionally, the number of games forecasted for a player is 75 games. I am well aware that there will be plenty of players that will play over 75, but injuries are part of the game, and on average I expect the top guys to play 75 games in the season.
The individual player goals forecast will be the least accurate because performance can vary as circumstances change. However, on the aggregate, the totals should be more accurate. That’s my way of saying: please don’t contact me in April to tell me how my forecast for Yegor Sharangovich was way off. It probably will be—I know it.
(**Editor’s note: But if John nails it on Sharangovich’s projection, please do contact him to tell him how brilliant he is.)
Anaheim Ducks
I forecast the Anaheim Ducks to score 231 adjusted goals in 2024-25, which is 35 more than last season. The increase is driven by rookie additions and full seasons from Trevor Zegras and Leo Carlsson. I’m assuming rookies Sam Colangelo (eight goals) and Cutter Gauthier (10 goals) will play 55 games, which might be optimistic in terms of both games played and goal scoring. Zegras only played in 31 games last season after suffering a broken leg, so that might be a bit high as well. He did play 75 and 81 games in the seasons prior to 2023-24, so he’s certainly capable of playing a full season without injury.
Defensively, it’s hard to forecast Anaheim’s deployments next season. The Ducks have shown a cautious approach to integrating players into the NHL, often scratching rookies to avoid overwhelming them in the first season. I assume Olen Zellweger will get more NHL playing time, but at whose expense? Jackson LaCombe and Urho Vaakanainen appear to be the most likely candidates to see a reduction in games, but neither contributes significantly to goal scoring.
Sniff test: I don’t think anyone is expecting much from the Ducks this coming season, so this goal forecast seems a little high. I can’t objectively find a reason to lower the forecast, so for now, I’ll keep it as is.
Calgary Flames
The Flames’ scoring projections are in line with their numbers from last year. They lost several pending free agents at the trade deadline and traded Andrew Mangiapane this offseason. Some of the lost goal scoring will be offset by a full season of Andrei Kuzmenko, who they acquired at the trade deadline, and the signing of Anthony Mantha in free agency. Additionally, Connor Zary looks to build upon his solid rookie season last year. The Flames’ first-round pick from 2021, Matthew Coronato, should also stick with the team this season.
Sniff test: This feels about right, but you wonder how much the losses of defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev will impact the rest of the team’s goal scoring. The Flames averaged 3.13 goals per game before Hanifin was traded on March 6 and scored 2.95 goals per game after the trade. Perhaps more telling about the state of the Flames is that they allowed 3.07 goals against per game before the Hanifin trade and 3.81 goals against per game after.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers didn’t have a problem scoring goals last season, with 280 adjusted goals—the most in the Pacific Division. This offseason, they added even more scoring with the acquisitions of Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, and Victor Arvidsson. These additions contributed 70 goals to their forecast. The losses of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg will have minimal impact on overall goal production next season.
Sniff test: This team is going to score a ton next season, but I think this forecast might be a bit too optimistic. A forecast of 315 adjusted goals is 18 more than the top team in the league (Toronto) had last season.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings lost a few goal-scoring pieces this offseason through free agency, including Viktor Arvidsson, Blake Lizotte, and Matt Roy. They also traded Carl Grundstrom to San Jose and sent the much-maligned Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Washington Capitals for Darcy Kuemper. None of those players are irreplaceable, but the sum of those departures amounts to 40 non-empty-net goals. They backfilled those losses with Tanner Jeannot and Warren Foegele, who collectively forecast at 26 adjusted goals next season. For the Kings to make up the difference, they’ll need young players like Quinton Byfield and Alexis Laferriere to take another step.
Sniff test: This forecast feels about right, but some of the young guys could break out with the additional opportunities provided by the departures. Additionally, Byfield is probably at least a 20-goal scorer next season, but Phillip Danault might be slowing down a bit. Either way, the Kings could be one of the vulnerable teams to lose their playoff spot from last season.
San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks scored the second-fewest adjusted goals in the league with 176 last season. Two of their top goal scorers, Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair, were traded at the deadline. In the offseason, they added Tyler Toffoli, Barclay Goodrow, and former Kraken Alex Wennberg, but they need more than that if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The future looks bright for the Sharks with the drafting and signing of Macklin Celebrini and the signing of fourth overall forward Will Smith this offseason. They also appear to have a good young forward in William Eklund, and Thomas Bordeleau might have a chance to establish himself as an everyday NHLer. Oh, and they just traded for stud goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov.
They’re on the right path, but I only expect them to be slightly more competitive than last year, which wasn’t very competitive at all.
Sniff test: This seems accurate. The Sharks have a lot of youth on the roster but are very thin on experience, which should be a challenge for them this season.
Seattle Kraken
My Seattle Kraken forecast was posted separately a few weeks ago—check it out here. The increase in adjusted goal scoring is attributable to the free-agent signings of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, as well as the expected positive regression to the mean in goal scoring after a disappointing 2023-24 season in that category.
Sniff test: As I mentioned before, on paper, the team is better this season, but we don’t expect them to reach the same level of goal scoring as in the 2022-23 season. This feels about right.
Vancouver Canucks
The forecast for the Canucks is a drop of 16 adjusted goals from last season. The decline is primarily driven by a projected decrease in goal production from J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, who both had career highs in goals last season. The Canucks did add Jake DeBrusk in the offseason, which will help replace the goals lost with Andrei Kuzmenko (trade deadline) and Sam Lafferty (free agency). Assuming their goaltending remains stable, the Canucks look formidable again.
Sniff test: Last season, the Canucks had one of the highest shooting percentages in the league, so even Canucks fans might expect a bit of a regression. Even with a 16-goal drop next season, the Canucks are still a playoff team, and that seems accurate.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forecasting Vegas is challenging. They saw several departures this offseason, including 42-goal scorer Jonathan Marchessault, who signed in Nashville, and 16-goal scorer Chandler Stephenson, who signed with Seattle. Offsetting those departures, they acquired Alexander Holtz from New Jersey and signed Victor Olofsson in free agency. Holtz is an up-and-comer who could thrive with more opportunities in Vegas, while Olofsson is just two seasons removed from a 28-goal season in Buffalo. Additionally, if they stay healthy, the Golden Knights should have full seasons from Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone. My forecast estimates 60 and 50 games, respectively, for those two players given their injury history.
Sniff test: It seems like every season we expect the Golden Knights to drop in the standings, but they continue to prove us wrong. They seem like the most likely team to drop out of the playoffs, but there is still a lot of high-end talent on this team.
Summary
This is what it looks like when we put all the Pacific Division teams together.
I know what you’re thinking—how convenient that a writer (and unabashed fan) covering the Seattle Kraken predicts the Kraken will see the biggest increase in goals next season. It’s more than fair to be skeptical—I’m a bit skeptical myself. I did use the same methodology for all teams, but my intimate knowledge of the Kraken could have inadvertently impacted my approach. If nothing else, this was a good primer for the upcoming season, highlighting the roster changes in the Pacific Division and how those changes might play out.
What are your thoughts? Are there any blatant errors in the assumptions?
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Once the Seattle Kraken roster settles in each offseason, I like to project the team’s playoff chances by forecasting its goal scoring. You can review the last two offseason forecasts here: 2022-23 and 2023-24. I will eventually integrate the scoring forecast with playoff projections in an article closer to the beginning of the season.
The forecast includes adjusted goals for each player on the projected Kraken roster. I define adjusted goals as goals scored minus empty-net goals. Based on prior analysis, teams with an adjusted goal differential of plus one to plus five make the playoffs over 50 percent of the time. Adjusted goals against is an important part of that equation, but for the purpose of this article, I will only look at adjusted goals for.
Reviewing last year’s goal forecast
There is no denying that goal scoring was a tremendous challenge for the Seattle Kraken during the 2023-24 season. The Kraken’s adjusted goals for dropped by 68 season over season, which was a 25 percent decrease from 2022-23. We all expected a bit of a regression after a sky-high shooting percentage in 2022-23, but this was much more than anyone could have anticipated.
With a variance of 50 goals, it’s clear that my projection missed the mark. There is always expected variance from player to player, but those should balance out. A disappointing season for one player should be offset by a career season for another player. There was no such offset last season, and most players came in under their forecasted goal numbers.
Forecasting models are never that accurate, but the objective is to get as close as possible to the actual results. This model was not very close, so it’s worth evaluating what adjustments can be made for the 2024-25 forecast.
Last season’s model was based on a simple equation: player goals per game from the prior season multiplied by the expected games played in the forecasted season. I also made a few subjective adjustments, but for the most part, it was that simple. In retrospect, basing the rate of goal projection on one season is too narrow of a view. The model also has a challenge when systematic strategy changes are made by the team. The Kraken scored 75 fewer goals last season than they did during the 2022-23 season, but they also allowed 52 fewer goals.
For the 2024-25 Kraken season forecast, I will broaden the scope to include the prior three seasons.
Departures and arrivals for the 2024-25 Season
As of now, the Kraken have had five player departures this offseason, three forwards and two defensemen. None of the five were known for their goal scoring, but collectively, they contributed 34 adjusted goals in 2023-24.
The Kraken made a big splash in free agency with the additions of forward Chandler Stephenson and offensive-minded defenseman Brandon Montour.
The Kraken also added some depth with Ben Meyers, Joshua Mahura, and Maxime Lajoie, but their contributions to the team will be limited barring any injuries. Additionally, we anticipate Shane Wright and Ryker Evans becoming mainstays in the Kraken lineup next season.
Although Stephenson and Montour might not be projected to replace the 34 goals that departed the team last season, their real value lies in their ability to create additional scoring opportunities for other players. This forecast model will not adjust for this expected impact on other players.
Scoring forecast for the forwards
As mentioned above, I’ve taken the last three seasons of games played and adjusted goals scored to project for the 2024-25 season. The games played forecast is somewhat subjective, but I also looked at the average number played by each player to estimate how many they will skate in this coming season.
The maximum number of forecasted games for the 2024-25 season is 75. I am aware that several players averaged more than 75 games per season, but this was a conservative way of predicting for 2024-25.
A couple of callouts: Shane Wright’s projected rate based on his 16 NHL games to date suggests 20-plus goals for the 2024-25 season. However, I felt that forecasting a player’s contributions based on just 16 games was not a large enough sample size, so I adjusted his forecast down to 15 goals.
There are 984 total forward games played in each season (12 forwards times 82 games), so I filled the “other” category with the remaining games. That seems a little high for this category, but again, I felt it was a good conservative estimate. For the adjusted goals per game rate, I estimated 0.10 goals scored per game. The rate for this category last year was 0.114 per game, but that calculation included Tomas Tatar, who scored at a rate of 0.186 per game. The adjustment down was to be more conservative.
If I wanted to be even more cautious in my approach, I would probably change the projections for Jordan Eberle and Yanni Gourde to lower rates of adjusted goals in 2024-25 because both have had three years of declining adjusted goals scored per game. It could be wishful thinking, but I feel this potential decline will be offset by how Stephenson and Montour create more goal-scoring opportunities for other players on the ice.
Scoring forecast for the defensemen
Now that we have the methodology, forecasting the defensive group is straightforward.
The only thing I might add to this forecast is that it might be unrealistic to expect Montour to contribute 11.2 goals this coming season, his first with a new team. To counterbalance Montour’s optimistic forecast, projecting the “other” category to contribute zero goals over 42 games is a conservative approach.
Putting it together
Adding the forecast for the forwards and defensemen gives the Kraken 242 forecasted adjusted goals for this coming season. That feels high based on how last season went, but that could be the human behavior of recency bias creeping into my head. Regardless of what you think of the signings of Stephenson and Montour, both should make the Kraken better offensively this coming season.
Other considerations
The other big moves this offseason were behind the bench, with Dan Bylsma taking over the head coaching job and Jessica Campbell and Bob Woods being hired as assistant coaches. Collectively, the new staff will have a massive impact on how this team plays, but building that impact into a forecast model is impossible.
The Kraken power play will also influence goal scoring one way or another. The additions of Stephenson and Montour should help improve the power play, but measuring that impact is a bit of a challenge considering both previously played for teams that have been close to the best in the league over the last two seasons. The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers had more talent on their respective rosters than the Kraken will have this coming season, so past stats for Montour and Stephenson may not equate to what they will produce in Seattle.
Conclusion
My forecast for the Seattle Kraken’s 2024-25 season projects 242 adjusted goals, a notable increase from last season’s disappointing performance. While this estimate may seem optimistic, the additions of Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour, along with the potential emergence of Shane Wright and Ryker Evans, provide reasons for hope.
However, it’s essential to acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding coaching changes, power play performance, and potential variances in player production. As the season approaches, I’ll integrate this goal-scoring forecast with adjusted-goals-against projections to provide a comprehensive playoff prediction. For now, Kraken fans can cautiously look forward to an improved offensive output in the upcoming season.
What are your thoughts? Is my forecast too optimistic, or does it sound about right? If you would change it, how would you do it?
