Once the Seattle Kraken roster settles in each offseason, I like to project the team’s playoff chances by forecasting its goal scoring. You can review the last two offseason forecasts here: 2022-23 and 2023-24. I will eventually integrate the scoring forecast with playoff projections in an article closer to the beginning of the season.
The forecast includes adjusted goals for each player on the projected Kraken roster. I define adjusted goals as goals scored minus empty-net goals. Based on prior analysis, teams with an adjusted goal differential of plus one to plus five make the playoffs over 50 percent of the time. Adjusted goals against is an important part of that equation, but for the purpose of this article, I will only look at adjusted goals for.
Reviewing last year’s goal forecast
There is no denying that goal scoring was a tremendous challenge for the Seattle Kraken during the 2023-24 season. The Kraken’s adjusted goals for dropped by 68 season over season, which was a 25 percent decrease from 2022-23. We all expected a bit of a regression after a sky-high shooting percentage in 2022-23, but this was much more than anyone could have anticipated.
With a variance of 50 goals, it’s clear that my projection missed the mark. There is always expected variance from player to player, but those should balance out. A disappointing season for one player should be offset by a career season for another player. There was no such offset last season, and most players came in under their forecasted goal numbers.
Forecasting models are never that accurate, but the objective is to get as close as possible to the actual results. This model was not very close, so it’s worth evaluating what adjustments can be made for the 2024-25 forecast.
Last season’s model was based on a simple equation: player goals per game from the prior season multiplied by the expected games played in the forecasted season. I also made a few subjective adjustments, but for the most part, it was that simple. In retrospect, basing the rate of goal projection on one season is too narrow of a view. The model also has a challenge when systematic strategy changes are made by the team. The Kraken scored 75 fewer goals last season than they did during the 2022-23 season, but they also allowed 52 fewer goals.
For the 2024-25 Kraken season forecast, I will broaden the scope to include the prior three seasons.
Departures and arrivals for the 2024-25 Season
As of now, the Kraken have had five player departures this offseason, three forwards and two defensemen. None of the five were known for their goal scoring, but collectively, they contributed 34 adjusted goals in 2023-24.
The Kraken made a big splash in free agency with the additions of forward Chandler Stephenson and offensive-minded defenseman Brandon Montour.
The Kraken also added some depth with Ben Meyers, Joshua Mahura, and Maxime Lajoie, but their contributions to the team will be limited barring any injuries. Additionally, we anticipate Shane Wright and Ryker Evans becoming mainstays in the Kraken lineup next season.
Although Stephenson and Montour might not be projected to replace the 34 goals that departed the team last season, their real value lies in their ability to create additional scoring opportunities for other players. This forecast model will not adjust for this expected impact on other players.
Scoring forecast for the forwards
As mentioned above, I’ve taken the last three seasons of games played and adjusted goals scored to project for the 2024-25 season. The games played forecast is somewhat subjective, but I also looked at the average number played by each player to estimate how many they will skate in this coming season.
The maximum number of forecasted games for the 2024-25 season is 75. I am aware that several players averaged more than 75 games per season, but this was a conservative way of predicting for 2024-25.
A couple of callouts: Shane Wright’s projected rate based on his 16 NHL games to date suggests 20-plus goals for the 2024-25 season. However, I felt that forecasting a player’s contributions based on just 16 games was not a large enough sample size, so I adjusted his forecast down to 15 goals.
There are 984 total forward games played in each season (12 forwards times 82 games), so I filled the “other” category with the remaining games. That seems a little high for this category, but again, I felt it was a good conservative estimate. For the adjusted goals per game rate, I estimated 0.10 goals scored per game. The rate for this category last year was 0.114 per game, but that calculation included Tomas Tatar, who scored at a rate of 0.186 per game. The adjustment down was to be more conservative.
If I wanted to be even more cautious in my approach, I would probably change the projections for Jordan Eberle and Yanni Gourde to lower rates of adjusted goals in 2024-25 because both have had three years of declining adjusted goals scored per game. It could be wishful thinking, but I feel this potential decline will be offset by how Stephenson and Montour create more goal-scoring opportunities for other players on the ice.
Scoring forecast for the defensemen
Now that we have the methodology, forecasting the defensive group is straightforward.
The only thing I might add to this forecast is that it might be unrealistic to expect Montour to contribute 11.2 goals this coming season, his first with a new team. To counterbalance Montour’s optimistic forecast, projecting the “other” category to contribute zero goals over 42 games is a conservative approach.
Putting it together
Adding the forecast for the forwards and defensemen gives the Kraken 242 forecasted adjusted goals for this coming season. That feels high based on how last season went, but that could be the human behavior of recency bias creeping into my head. Regardless of what you think of the signings of Stephenson and Montour, both should make the Kraken better offensively this coming season.
Other considerations
The other big moves this offseason were behind the bench, with Dan Bylsma taking over the head coaching job and Jessica Campbell and Bob Woods being hired as assistant coaches. Collectively, the new staff will have a massive impact on how this team plays, but building that impact into a forecast model is impossible.
The Kraken power play will also influence goal scoring one way or another. The additions of Stephenson and Montour should help improve the power play, but measuring that impact is a bit of a challenge considering both previously played for teams that have been close to the best in the league over the last two seasons. The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers had more talent on their respective rosters than the Kraken will have this coming season, so past stats for Montour and Stephenson may not equate to what they will produce in Seattle.
Conclusion
My forecast for the Seattle Kraken’s 2024-25 season projects 242 adjusted goals, a notable increase from last season’s disappointing performance. While this estimate may seem optimistic, the additions of Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour, along with the potential emergence of Shane Wright and Ryker Evans, provide reasons for hope.
However, it’s essential to acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding coaching changes, power play performance, and potential variances in player production. As the season approaches, I’ll integrate this goal-scoring forecast with adjusted-goals-against projections to provide a comprehensive playoff prediction. For now, Kraken fans can cautiously look forward to an improved offensive output in the upcoming season.
What are your thoughts? Is my forecast too optimistic, or does it sound about right? If you would change it, how would you do it?
This will be a first pass at predicting the lines for the 2024-25 season. The picture will become a little clearer after training camp and preseason games, as we will see who is practicing together and if there is any chemistry between individual players. Obviously, to come up with line combinations, we have to make some assumptions on who will make the roster.
For purposes of this exercise, we will assume the following:
Ryker Evans and Shane Wright will be full-time Kraken players throughout the season.
This article was inspired by one of our Patreon Mailbags, where subscriber Katie had a question on what the special teams lines might be for the 2024-25 season. Thank you, Katie, for the question. (**Editor’s note: If you aren’t already a Patreon subscriber, you can become one today!) While we will mainly focus on special teams, we will also expand a bit on the original question and preview what Seattle could do for even-strength lines.
Remember, there was a handful of additions and departures that will alter the look of the upcoming season’s roster.
Departures
Alex Wennberg – Traded
Kailer Yamamoto – Free Agent
Tomas Tatar – Free Agent
Brian Dumoulin – Traded
Justin Schultz – Free Agent
Additions
Chandler Stephenson – Free Agent Signing
Brandon Montour – Free Agent Signing
Shane Wright – promoted from AHL
Ryker Evans – promoted from AHL
Josh Mahura – Free Agent Signing
All of the departures contributed to special teams at some point during the 2023-24 season, so there are open positions to fill. Factor in changes to the coaching staff as well, with Dan Bylsma, Bob Woods, and Jessica Campbell being brought in, we would expect special teams to change a lot from last season.
Power play lines
The power play looked different before and after the 2024 trade deadline, with the trade of Alex Wennberg and injuries to Andre Burakovsky and Vince Dunn. Here is how the Seattle Kraken power play lines looked at the end of the 2023-24 season:
Ryker Evans is expected to be on the roster full time and has had success on the power play in the AHL, but with the addition of Montour, he is at the bottom of the depth chart and will not be on the power play to start the year.
First power play line
Seattle’s two big free agent signings, Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, will make an immediate impact on the top power play unit. Stephenson won 52.6 percent of his face-offs last season, which is better than all Seattle Kraken centermen. In fact, no Kraken center was above 48 percent in the face-off dot.
Montour played on the top power play line for the Florida Panthers, who were sixth in the NHL with 63 goals. Montour averaged 3:54 of power play time per game, over a minute more than the Kraken’s top power play quarterback, Vince Dunn, who averaged 2:49 per game.
Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jared McCann were the top-scoring power play players with 25 and 23 points respectively. They have earned their spots on the top unit and will likely continue playing there into next season. Andre Burakovsky had the worst season of his career and is poised for a bounce back. He also has skills as a puck carrier and will be called upon to carry the puck into the offensive zone. If Burakovsky does not produce quickly, he could be dropped to the second unit.
Oliver Bjorkstrand (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Jared McCann (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Second power play unit
We would expect Seattle’s second unit to feature Beniers, who struggled to score consistently during a sophomore slump. Jordan Eberle will be the puck carrier into the offensive zone. Dunn will start out as the quarterback on the second unit and figures to again be productive. Even though Montour had more time on his team’s power play, he only had one more point than Dunn at 17. Montour is only a year removed, though, from getting 33 points on the power play, which is why we think Dunn will start the year on the second unit. Dunn could certainly jump back to the first unit if Montour’s doesn’t click with the top group.
Vince Dunn
Shane Wright and Ryker Evans will likely not make the power play to start the season but will be ready to step in if an injury arises or if a player is not meeting expectations. With head coach Dan Bylsma and assistant coach Jessica Campbell both coming from the Coachella Valley Firebirds, they have seen firsthand both Wright and Evans succeeding on the power play and will be ready to insert them onto one of the units as the opportunity arises. Wright will definitely increase the competition for a power play role, which will only make the Kraken better.
Patreon member Katie also asked about the possibility of seeing two defensemen on a power play unit. With the depth the Kraken have at the forward position, I see them using four forwards on most nights. They do have Evans, though, so a game situation could come up where they would deploy him, but typically you will see one defenseman on the power play.
Penalty kill lines
Here’s how the penalty kill units looked at the end of last season.
As with the power play, the penalty kill unit had some departures. Wennberg and Brian Dumoulin were traded, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was not re-signed. Stephenson is used to playing in all situations and will replace Wennberg. The Montour signing and expectations that Evans will make the team led to Dumoulin getting traded. McCann filled the the vacancy created by Wennberg’s departure after the deadline and could stay on the penalty killing unit. That leaves two vacancies to fill in the PK units.
With penalty killing, teams want to make sure someone is on the ice that can win a face-off. Of the forwards, only Brandon Tanev lacks in that department. We think Yanni Gourde and Tanev will be on the top penalty killing line, as they will often be more rested due to limited playing time in other situations. Their high energy approach was effective last year and should disrupt opposing power play units. Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak formed the top penalty kill defense pairing last year, and that will remain going into 2024-25.
The second unit will feature the two Kraken forwards that will play in all situations, Stephenson and McCann. Will Borgen has experience on the penalty kill and will take Evans under his wing. Do not expect there to be a true first and second line in terms of ice time, as they will most likely be deployed equally.
Even strength lines
Forward lines
There will be a few changes this year that might raise some eyebrows, but change is part of hockey, and it’s part of the Kraken striving to get better. Forward lines will change a lot during the course of the season, but here’s a combination we could see Bylsma trying at some point.
Beniers on the second line? The truth is Beniers scored only 37 points last year, which is not great for a first-line center. At the moment, Stephenson is the best center on the roster, and until Beniers or Wright develops past him, he will be on the first line.
With Wright making the team this year, he needs to play some sheltered minutes and be put in a position to score with wingers that can help contribute. A third-line role is perfect for this, and Jaden Schwartz and Eeli Tolvanen have good shots and solid forechecking skills that can contribute to Wright succeeding. Tye Kartye, Brandon Tanev, and Yanni Gourde are players people love to watch because of their hustle and grinding style of play. They will do well as a change-of-pace line that can put the other team on its heels.
Defensive pairings
The defense pairs are easier to work out as there are fewer lines and players. Larsson and Dunn have played well together during the first three years of Kraken hockey, and there is little reason to break them up. We foresee Montour sliding into a second pairing with Oleksiak. Will Borgen, who led the Kraken defense in hits last year will play a stay-at-home defensive role and allow Evans to continue to develop his puck moving skills.
Wrap up
Line combinations will be fluid as chemistries are found and the new Kraken coaching staff experiments with what works and what doesn’t. Without a doubt, the forward lines are all improved for the upcoming season. The question is if the Kraken as a whole have improved enough to sneak into a playoff spot.
If you have any thoughts on the Kraken lines, please share them below in the comments. You can follow me on the X at @blaizg.
We are now 35 days removed from the opening of the NHL free agency period. Signings continue to occur, but they are only trickling in at this point in the cycle. Now is a good time to assess what has happened in free agency from a data perspective and evaluate how next year’s cap ceiling increase of $4.5 million may have impacted signings compared to previous seasons.
Day 1 free agency spend
The 2024 NHL free agency market saw a Day 1 increase of 72 percent over 2023, marking the biggest NHL spend on the opening day of free agency ever. These numbers represent total committed dollars over the length of the contracts and include non-extension RFA contract signings.
This spike should not be much of a surprise, considering the NHL and NHLPA added a collective $144 million in cap space per season. This increase is expected to continue in perpetuity, with substantial increases anticipated in the coming seasons.
Cumulative spending
Here is how the cumulative spending continued compared to previous seasons.
The 2024 cumulative committed dollars remain the highest ever but have not maintained the same momentum as 2021 and 2022. The 2021 free agency period saw a substantial spike between days 30 and 45, thanks to a series of significant RFA signings, including Andrei Svechnikov, Anthony Beauvillier, Drake Batherson, Filip Hronek, Ilya Sorokin, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
Here is how the 2024 NHL free agent spending looks by team.
Nashville made a huge splash in free agency with the signings of blue-chip free agents Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Stamkos, and Brady Skjei. Meanwhile, the Kraken committed the second most dollars in free agency with a pair of seven-year commitments to Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour. The Kraken are also expected to sign Matty Beniers to an amount that could make them the biggest spenders this offseason.
Other notable signings
Unrestricted free agent Elias Lindholm received the most financial commitment, netting $54.3 million over seven years with Boston.
Anton Lundell netted the most money among restricted free agents this offseason, signing with Florida for $30 million over six years.
Detroit still needs to re-sign restricted free agents Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.
Other big-ticket RFAs that are unsigned include Seth Jarvis (CAR), Jeremy Swayman (BOS), Dawson Mercer (NJD), and Beniers (SEA).
Speaking of Matty Beniers….
Status of Matty Beniers
Many fans are concerned about the lack of an announcement regarding Matty Beniers re-signing, 35 days into the free agency period. The concern is reminiscent of 2020 when fans responded to every tweet and post with a generic comment of “name?” which has now turned into “Status of Beniers?”
However, there is no need to worry. Without the looming presence of an arbitration hearing, there is no sense of urgency for either side of the negotiating table. Historically, it is common for RFAs without arbitration rights to sign 30 to 90 days into free agency, especially those with an AAV of over $4 million per year.
There could be several valid reasons for not signing Matty right now. Hypothetically, if the team were to sign Matty tomorrow to a contract with an AAV over $7 million, it would put the Kraken over the salary cap. This would signal to other NHL teams that the Kraken need to clear cap space before finalizing their roster in October, giving those teams leverage in trade negotiations.
Ron Francis is known for never tipping his hand, so the quietness around Matty is consistent with his approach. Additionally, Matty’s appearance at the NHL Draft and Dan Bylsma’s comments about discussions with Matty suggest that the relationship with the organization is fine.
Despite concerns from fans, historical trends indicate that the delay in signing Matty Beniers is not unusual. This deal will get done.
Several weeks have passed since the Seattle Kraken made a significant splash in free agency by committing $90 million to two high-profile signings. Assuming no trades on the horizon, the Kraken’s roster appears set for the 2024-25 season. I have previously stated on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast that both Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour are likely to immediately join the first power play unit when the regular season begins. Evaluating the impact of these additions to the power play is challenging, but I wanted to take a deep dive into the Kraken’s power play potential.
Historical power play performance
The Kraken’s power play performance last season was not bad; in terms of power play execution percentage, they were just slightly below league average and ranked 17th in the league.
Additionally, the Kraken’s power play has improved in each of the last three seasons.
The improvement between 2021-22 and 2022-23 can largely be attributed to the acquisitions of quality shooters Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky, Eeli Tolvanen, and a full year of Daniel Sprong, replacing the power play minutes of Marcus Johansson, Calle Jarnkrok, Morgan Geekie, Joonas Donskoi, and a portion of the minutes of Ryan Donato and Yanni Gourde.
It is probably a safe assumption to expect Montour to take Schultz’s power play time on ice, plus more. Stephenson will likely end up in the top five in power play time on ice next season. He will replace all of Wennberg’s power play time and, likely, Jaden Schwartz’s time as well, since they all play similar roles on the power play. Montour had the most power play time on ice for defensemen on Florida with 15,466 seconds, while Stephenson had the third most power play time on Vegas with 12,957 seconds. Clearly, Montour and Stephenson were key pieces of their respective teams’ power plays, but how much are they contributing to power play scoring?
Contribution of power play points
Evaluating how much a player contributes to scoring on a power play is a rather simple calculation: the sum of a player’s points divided by the total team’s power play goals.
This is how the Kraken looked last season:
Now let’s bring in Montour and Stephenson to see how they stack up.
It is not a perfect analysis, but if Montour and Stephenson contribute at the same rate with the Kraken as they did with their 2023-24 teams, they will certainly provide an upgrade over the players they will be replacing on the power play.
Chandler Stephenson’s passing
One thing public models cannot evaluate very well, if at all, is a player’s ability to pass the puck. Most public models use the play-by-play data published by the NHL for every game. If you scan through any game’s play-by-play data, you won’t see ‘pass’ as a play type. This unfairly handicaps the evaluation of elite passers. I am not saying that Chandler Stephenson is an elite passer, but I know he is at least a ‘very good’ passer.
Here are a couple examples of power play assists from Stephenson.
Jonathan Marchessault gets Vegas' second power play goal of the game to restore the Knights' three-goal lead. pic.twitter.com/50WgYWFyA6
— Golden Knights Radio (@VGKRadioNetwork) April 13, 2024
Adding a player like Stephenson to the Kraken’s power play will be exciting to watch. He has the potential to elevate the play of those around him and could significantly increase the team’s execution and options on the power play.
Wrapping it up
The Kraken’s power play has steadily improved over the past three seasons, and the additions of Stephenson and Montour provide an opportunity to build on that momentum. Both players bring substantial power play experience and proven track records of contributing to their former teams’ success. Stephenson’s exceptional passing ability could be a game-changer, creating a more dynamic power play. While predicting the exact impact of these new additions is challenging, the potential for a more potent and effective power play is evident. As the season unfolds, it will be exciting to see how these changes translate on the ice and if the Kraken can become one of the top 10 power play teams in the league.
We just had a verybusy week covering the Seattle Kraken, and something that might have been overlooked was the official release of the NHL schedule for the 2024-25 season. As I do every year, I enjoy looking at a few key data points across the league to see how the Kraken schedule stacks up against that of other teams.
Travel distance by NHL team
Based on the location of some NHL franchises, it is expected that certain teams will log more miles in a season compared to the rest of the league. Seattle is one of those teams that needs to travel more than most.
The Kraken have consistently fallen in the top 10 for travel miles, and coming in at third place for most miles traveled in 2024-25 will be the highest Seattle has been on this list. The Kraken will travel 3,000 more miles this coming season compared to last season.
Here is a look at all the teams by division.
The Pacific Division teams, as a whole, end up traveling more than the three other divisions.
Number of road trips
A side benefit of being based outside the northeastern corner of North America is that you tend to have fewer road trips.
As you can see, Seattle has the second-fewest number of road trips across the league. Of course, that means the actual road trips themselves will be longer.
Note that because of the league-wide break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, Seattle will have no home stands that start in February this coming season.
Back-to-back games
Another element of the NHL schedule I like to review is the number of back-to-back games for each team. The Kraken come in close to the league average on this.
Other odds and ends of the Kraken schedule
As many people have noticed already, the home opener is at 1:30 p.m. on a Tuesday as the NHL hopes to recreate an MLB Opening Day-type vibe with a triple-header on ESPN.
The Kraken have 11 Saturday home games this coming season, up from nine during the 2023-24 season. I’ve joked that this is bad news, considering they did not win any of those Saturday games last season.
Alex Wennberg’s first game as a visitor to Climate Pledge Arena will be on Nov. 30 when the Sharks visit Seattle.
The Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers visit Seattle on Dec. 10.
The Utah Hockey Club makes its first appearance at Climate Pledge Arena on Dec. 30, and the Kraken’s first game in Utah is not until April 8.
We discussed it on the Sound Of HockeyPodcast, but if you are looking for a fun road trip, the Kraken play three games in four days when they visit the New York area for an extended weekend in early December.
There are three days when the Kraken, Seattle Thunderbirds, and Everett Silvertips all have home games this coming season: Nov. 27, Jan. 18, and March 14.
What did I miss? Are there any home games you are particularly excited about? What about a possible road trip you’re considering? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
As the smoke clears from an active opening to free agency, we at Sound Of Hockey, wanted to highlight some of the movements around the NHL. There were 190 signings on the first day of free agency and 252 signings and counting so far with more than $1 billion committed across the league. We will focus on the impacts to the Pacific Division teams, what the new additions to the Seattle Kraken mean for their chances, and touch on a few other teams that made significant moves around the NHL.
Seattle Kraken
General manager Ron Francis was not his usual conservative self and made a big splash, signing two big free-agent targets:
Brandon Montour (RD) – Seven years at $7.14M AAV ($50M total)
Chandler Stephenson (C) – Seven years at $6.25M AAV ($43.75M total)
"#SeaKraken reportedly signing defenseman Brandon Montour to a monster seven-year contract"@DarrenFunBrown gives quick analysis on the surprising seven-year signing and considers how Montour could fit with the Kraken.
"#SeaKraken make another splash, signing Chandler Stephenson for seven years" @DarrenFunBrown gives his reaction to the signing and an update on where Seattle sits after grabbing Stephenson and Brandon Montour.
The initial feedback has not been all positive. Both players are 30 years old and signed seven-year deals. If either player actually plays out the entirety of his contract, he will be in a small minority of players in the league at that point. Only 15 NHL players were 37 at the start of the 2023-24 season. The cost of each contract has been described as an overpay, but that is the cost of doing business in free agency, especially if you want to attract talented players.
There are some positives from these signings. Let’s start with a simple question, are the Seattle Kraken better with Montour and Stephenson? On paper, this is a resounding yes, they have strengthened the defense and improved at the center position. Montour will most likely play on the second defensive pairing, but is capable of a first-pairing role and led all Florida Panthers in ice time last season. Stephenson is an improvement over former Kraken center Alex Wennberg and provides a bit more offensive punch. Stephenson will also be able to fill the second-line center role, hopefully reducing some pressure on Shane Wright, who looks to make the Kraken roster full-time this upcoming season.
Contract length
Seven years is the longest contract the Kraken could award to these players. Offering this term was likely a driving factor in Stephenson and Montour choosing to play for Seattle, which does not have the allure of being a true Stanley Cup contender.
I’m not terribly worried about the contract length, though I know this is a big part of the discourse about these signings. The reason I’m not worried about it is because a lot can happen during seven years. Players can be traded, bought out, get injured, or retire. While I don’t hope for the last two, the reality is injuries happen in hockey, and it is possible these contracts get moved to long-term injured reserve after a number of years.
Average annual value (AAV)
The AAV also seems high, but remember, seven years ago the NHL salary cap was at $75 million. It has increased 17.33 percent to $88 million. If the cap continues to grow at this rate, these deals may not seem as rich in a few years. If they produce, $6 million and $7 million contracts could seem cheap a couple years from now.
Players tend to decline in performance as they age, but these are the only two contracts currently on the books from 2027-28 onward.
Acquired through free agency
There are four ways to acquire a player, drafting, signing as a free agent, trading, or claiming off waivers. It’s generally believed that the best way to build a team is to build from the draft, but that takes time. Trading or signing free agents can speed up the timeline, but both have positives and negatives.
The positive for signing a free agent is the prospect pool remains intact, whereas trading often costs draft picks and/or prospects. The Kraken have a promising prospect pool, so to be able to add two solid players to their current roster without giving up any futures is a positive. To me, keeping that pool intact is worth a few extra million in overpay.
Stanley Cup pedigree
Ron Francis has a penchant for signing players that have won the Stanley Cup. Both Montour and Stephenson have hoisted Lord Stanley’s Cup, and Francis believes that experience is valuable when it comes to the grind of the season and the playoffs. Other Stanley Cup winners that have been signed by Ron Francis include Jaden Schwartz, Andre Burakovsky, Philipp Grubauer, Justin Schultz, and Brian Dumoulin (and, of course, head coach Dan Bylsma).
Signings overall
The Seattle Kraken have improved their roster with these signings, and, at least for the next two-three years, fans will get to enjoy this benefit. Hopefully by the time the contracts start to age, we will see a boost in performance from Seattle’s prospects.
Other Signings
The Kraken also made the following signings, mainly to backfill for departures from the Coachella Valley Firebirds, although Ben Meyers and Josh Mahura will certainly be looking to secure spots on the NHL roster. Their one-way contracts give them each an inside track to these spots, but we will see how training camp shakes out.
Signed Ben Meyers (LW, C) – One year, 775K AAV one-way contract
Signed Mitchell Stephens (C) – Two year, 775K AAV, two-way contract
Signed Brandon Biro (LW) – One year, 775K AAV, two-way contract
Signed Nikolas Brouillard (D) – One year, 775K AAV, two-way contract
Signed Maxime Lajoie (LD) – One year, 775K AAV, two-way contract
Signed Josh Mahura (LD) – One year, 775K AAV, one-way contract
Kraken moves overall
The Kraken have improved on both the offensive and defensive sides of puck. But have they done enough to secure a playoff spot? Time will tell, but it is reasonable to expect growth from Matty Beniers, Eeli Tolvanen, and Ryker Evans, and Andre Burakovsky should have a rebound year as well. With the additions of two legit players, the Kraken have a deeper roster than before, and all four lines should produce offense closer to what they did two seasons ago. Seattle also has a new coach in Bylsma who hopefully can bring an uptick in production.
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
Added
Lost
Same/Better/Worse
Brian Dumoulin
Jakob Silfverberg
Same – Anaheim was bad last year and will continue to build this year.
Calgary Flames
Added
Lost
Same/Better/Worse
Anthony Mantha Ryan Lomberg
Jacob Markstrom Andrew Mangiapane
Worse – They still have some work to do to get a starting goaltender to replace Markstrom.
I would love to see Dustin Wolf get a crack at the starting job, but that seems farfetched. The Flames will need to find a starting goalie. Some Seattle Kraken fans will dream of Grubauer getting traded, but Seattle needs him, especially without Chris Driedger stashed in the AHL. Grubauer also has a 10-team no-trade list and a huge contract, so we don’t see him getting traded.
Edmonton Oilers
Added
Lost
Same/Better/Worse
Viktor Arvidsson Jeff Skinner
Warren Foegele
Better – Resigned many of their current team and added, if you can believe it, more offense.
Jeff Skinner is an excellent signing and should easily replace the offensive output of Warren Foegele. This should be the year Skinner finally gets to play in a playoff game.
Los Angeles Kings
Added
Lost
Same/Better/Worse
Warren Foegele Tanner Jeannot Joel Edmundson Darcy Kuemper
Pierre-Luc Dubois Cam Talbot Matt Roy Viktor Arvidsson Blake Lizotte
Worse – Dubois never panned out in LA, but Warren Foegele’s offensive ceiling is close to Dubois’ floor. Both had about 40 points this last season. It was Foegele’s best season and Dubois’ worst season.
San Jose Sharks
Added
Lost
Same/Better/Worse
Tyler Toffoli Alex Wennberg Macklin Celebrini (Draft) Barclay Goodrow (waivers)
Devin Cooley
Better – They definitely have an improved forward group, but their defense and goaltenders still need some help. They probably are not the favorite to land another first overall draft pick, but making the playoffs would still be a huge stretch.
Back in January, we at Sound Of Hockey predicted it would take between $4.5-$5.5M to re-sign Wennberg, and that is exactly what San Jose paid, coming in at $5M AAV for two seasons.
Alex Wennberg
Vancouver Canucks
Added
Lost
Same/Better/Worse
Jake DeBrusk
Ian Cole Elias Lindholm Nikita Zadorov Casey DeSmith
Same – Lindholm did not work out, but prior to him coming, Vancouver was good. DeBrusk brings some more offense, and Arturs Silovs proved he is worthy of a backup role in the NHL.
Jake DeBrusk has averaged a 24-goal pace for his NHL career.
Jake DeBrusk, signed 7x$5.5M by VAN, is a top six scoring winger with a well-rounded offensive game and good defensive metrics who plays in all situations. Lots of goal-scoring upside even if it's not the most consistent. #Canuckspic.twitter.com/ZAyIBKjxVe
Chandler Stephenson Jonathan Marchessault Anthony Mantha Logan Thompson
Slightly Worse – The Golden Knights lost a lot of offense, but they did add Hertl last year at the trade deadline. The goalie and defense situation should be similar to what it was before, even after trading Thompson.
Hertl can replace Stephenson’s offensive production. Olofsson is a proven 20-goal scorer and did it on only 14 minutes of ice time with the Sabres. However, he will not match Marchessault’s production, which has now moved on to Nashville. Samsonov might thrive in a 1B role after shedding the pressure of playing in Toronto.
Overall Pacific Division
After a few days of free agency, it is way too early to predict standings for next season, but I’ll give it a try…
The Edmonton Oilers and the Vancouver Canucks look poised to hold onto the top two spots in the Pacific Division. The Los Angeles Kings, Vegas Golden Knights, and Calgary Flames appear ready to slide in the standings and open the door for the Kraken to slip into a playoff spot. The Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks are content in the cellar for another year.
There is a lot of offseason left, and these teams will continue to make moves. But if the season started today, here is my (way too early) prediction for the Pacific Division standings:
Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks
Seattle Kraken
Vegas Golden Knights
Los Angeles Kings
Calgary Flames
San Jose Sharks
Anaheim Ducks
Around the NHL
A handful of teams set off some fireworks in the early goings of free agency. We will not review every free agency move, but we will highlight some teams that made a big boom or lit a dud. Moves include trades and draft picks that happened around free agency as well. With it being a long 4th of July weekend, we will provide ratings using fireworks.
Boston Bruins
Players added: Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, and Joonas Korpisalo (trade)
Players that left: Jake DeBrusk and Linus Ullmark (trade)
Firework rating: Firecracker thrown from your hand. Definitely made a bang with their signings, but there is risk in signing Lindholm at $7.75M AAV after his struggles in Vancouver. I like the Kraken’s signing of Stephenson better.
Carolina Hurricanes
Player added: Shayne Gostisbehere
Players that left: Jake Guenztel (traded rights away), Brady Skjei, Teuvo Teravainen
Firework rating: Bottle rocket dud. Carolina was not able to capitalize on Guenztel, who seemed to fit into their system, scoring 34 points in his 28 games after being acquired at the deadline.
Nashville Predators
Players added: Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei
Players that left: Anthony Beauvillier and Jason Zucker
Firework rating: Mortars with report. Nashville was not happy with its first-round exit and brought in some big names on offense and defense. This improved team might be able to exceed its 18-game point streak from last season.
Breaking: The Predators are adding star forward Steven Stamkos, former Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault and Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brady Skjei. pic.twitter.com/a7CRkcLkcJ
Firework rating: Ground Snake. Lou Lamoriello was able to keep this signing quiet, but Duclair is a solid pick-up.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Player added: Jake Guentzel
Players that left: Steven Stamkos, Tanner Jeannot (trade), and Matt Dumba
Firework rating: Ground Fountain. Tampa is out with the old and in with the new. It will be a new era in Tampa Bay with long-time captain Stamkos moving to Nashville. Guentzel was a nice piece of work, though.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Players added: Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Players that left: Tyler Bertuzzi, T.J. Brodie, and Ilya Samsonov
Firework rating: Saturn missile. You never know which way the missiles are going to fire. This year, Toronto is adding veteran defense and a new coach in Craig Berube. The team should be playoff bound again, but it will be interesting to see how this roster responds to the offseason changes.
Washington Capitals
Players added: Jakob Chychrun, Logan Thompson, Andrew Mangiapane, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Matt Roy
Players that left: Nick Jenson and Darcy Kuemper
Firework rating: 500-gram firework cake. The Capitals did most of their moves through trades, but they have brought in a good group of players. These players should be able to improve Washington’s record, but the Caps are currently projected to be ~$13M over the cap. So, some work still needs to be done.
Wrapping up
It has been a busy start to the summer with all the free-agent signings, the trades, the NHL Draft, and Kraken Development Camp all hitting at about the same time. We are only a couple weeks into the official offseason, and I am already looking forward to the start of next season.
Please let me know your thoughts on the players acquired or traded and how you think this impacts the Kraken and/or league. You can follow @blaizg on x.com
