The Seattle Kraken set out to reach the playoffs this season but have officially fallen short. With the St. Louis Blues’ win over the Colorado Avalanche on March 29, the Kraken were eliminated from playoff contention.
As the NHL inches toward the postseason, the playoff picture is becoming clearer. Still, a few spots remain up for grabs. Here are the final team tiers and matchups to watch.
Updated team tiers
Bolded = Remaining teams the Kraken play, Starred* = moved tiers, x2 = play twice
The Eastern Conference has one, maybe two, wild card spots still contested. The Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens currently hold the last two spots, but the New York Rangers, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders are all in striking distance. According to Tankathon.com, Ottawa and Montreal have the easiest remaining schedule.
The Western Conference still has a race, but the gap has widened to six points. The St. Louis Blues made no moves at the trade deadline, opting to bet on their current roster. That decision has paid off, as they’re now riding a 10-game win streak that has vaulted them into the a wild card spot. The Calgary Flames remain in pursuit, led by standout rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf, and they have two games in hand. The Vancouver Canucks are fading but not yet out. They have one game in hand and the easiest schedule of the chasing group. The Minnesota Wild have slipped to the final wild card spot and sit one point behind the Blues with 88. They’ll need a strong finish but are getting Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back from injury soon.
Although not mathematically eliminated, the Utah Hockey Club has 80 points. That would be enough to make the playoffs in the East, but in the West, they sit eight points out and appear ready to book some tee times.
At the top of the Atlantic Division, the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Panthers are in a tight race. Only two points separate the three teams. Despite Toronto’s recent postseason appearances, it may surprise fans to learn the Leafs haven’t won their division since the 1999-2000 season. Could this be their year?
Fresh off two wins over the Kraken, the Dallas Stars are now the third-best team in the league. They are just four points back of the Winnipeg Jets, hold a game in hand, and remain firmly in the hunt for the Presidents’ Trophy. The battle for the top spot in the West will be fierce, especially since the runner-up is likely to face the Colorado Avalanche in the first round. Winnipeg drew that assignment last season and lost the series 4-1.
Kraken play since the break
The Kraken have remained competitive since the 4 Nations Face-Off break. In 18 games, they’ve gone 7-9-2. That record doesn’t look great, but they held a winning mark of 6-5-1 in their first 12 games. The final six were a gauntlet, with five games against the Playoff Bound tier. They went 1-4-1 in that stretch.
Excluding the shutout loss to the Wild on March 19 and the first defeat to the Stars on March 29, the Kraken were in nearly every game until the end. Since the trade deadline, when they dealt Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde, and Brandon Tanev, Seattle has kept games close. Other than the two blowout losses mentioned, every game was either a win or decided by one goal, not counting empty-netters. They’ve been competitive and fun to watch.
Goaltending
Joey Daccord hit his first sustained rough patch of the season, going 4-7-2 with a .883 save percentage over 13 appearances. Seven of those came against Playoff Bound teams, where he posted a 2-4-1 record.
Joey Daccord
Philipp Grubauer
Philipp Grubauer, meanwhile, is playing his best hockey of the entire season, a stretch that began after returning from his AHL stint. Embracing the backup role, Grubauer appeared in four games and posted a .925 save percentage—his best four-game stretch of the season. “The German Gentleman” has looked mostly sharp, going 2-2.
Point percentages versus team tiers
To reach 95 points, the Kraken needed to maintain a .579 point percentage over the full season. This was broken down by team tier, with target point percentages set for each. Here’s how their actual results stack up as of April 1:
Seattle struggled the most against the Playoff Bound tier, posting a .224 point percentage and going 5-21-3. They fared better against the Bubble and Tanker tiers, slightly exceeding the target against Bubble teams. They went 15-10-2 against the Bubble tier and 11-7-1 against Tankers.
Clearly, the Kraken must figure out how to secure more wins against top-tier teams to return to the playoffs.
Kraken the rest of the way
Seattle has seven games remaining: three against Playoff Bound teams, three against Bubble teams, and one against a Tanker.
Playoff Bound: Los Angeles Kings (twice), Vegas Golden Knights
Bubble: Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, Utah Hockey Club
Tanker: San Jose Sharks
The Bubble games will be interesting as the Kraken can play the role of spoiler. Those teams need every point. Based on Kraken point percentages by tier, the bar should be set at six points over the final stretch. Anything over six points and they will exceed their season average. Seattle begins its final road trip—five games—tonight against the Canucks.
Things to watch as the season winds down
Even with the Kraken out of the playoffs, there are still stories worth watching:
Jani Nyman—affectionately nicknamed Li’l Jani—has six points (three goals, three assists) in 10 games and looks primed to earn a roster spot next season. He’ll eventually return to Coachella Valley to help with their playoff run.
Shane Wright is having a strong first full season in the NHL, with 17 goals and 40 points while averaging 14 minutes of ice time. A 20-goal season would be the icing on the cake.
Home-ice advantage: Despite their struggles against top teams, the Kraken hold a .500 points percentage at home (17-17-5). With two home games left, I’m rooting for them to finish with a winning record.
Draft Position: I’m not one to root for tanking, but with the Kraken sitting 29th, draft lottery odds are at play. Finishing 27th gets them a 7.5 percent chance at the top pick. At 29th, it’s 9.5 percent.
This season didn’t go as hoped, but the Kraken showed resilience and have remained competitive in games. With a full offseason ahead, they have a chance to regroup and come back stronger.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Get the popcorn ready, because we might be in this thing for the long haul.
What a series we have on our hands in the WHL Playoffs first round, as after the No. 8-seeded Seattle Thunderbirds took an emotional Game 1, the No. 1-seeded Everett Silvertips countered in Game 2 with a 3-2 win of their own on Saturday night at Angel of the Winds Arena, with Eric Jamieson providing the heroics with the overtime winner.
The series will now shift down the I-5 corridor, with Game 3 coming on Tuesday night at the accesso ShoWare Center in Kent.
We knew coming in this would be an emotional and meaningful series for both teams, with the two having very different expectations coming in. But all that got wiped clean once they dropped the puck for Game 1.
Game 1
The opening game of the series saw the T-birds come out with the pedal to the metal, focused on finishing their checks and getting quality offensive looks. It looked like they were dictating the pace early on, and they were able to cash in with a pair of first-period goals from Hayden Pakkala and Brayden Holberton.
A Shea Busch goal sandwiched in between made it 2-1 after the first period. The T-birds hadn’t scored more than a goal in a game at Angel of the Winds in four games played there this season, but they had already surpassed that in a period of playoff hockey. Some big steps were being made.
An early second-period goal off a rebound from Simon Lovsin extended the lead to 3-1, which would wind up being the game-winner.
The Tips would add a goal from Tarin Smith in the third, but it proved to be too little, too late, as the T-birds held on for the win. This marked the fourth season in a row the Tips would drop the opening game of the playoffs. Scott Ratzlaff stopped 45 of 47 shots in the win.
Game 2
Game 2 the following night looked destined to be the same story, with the T-birds again starting out playing physical and finishing checks from the jump.
However, the Tips found their groove offensively in the back half of the frame, and Lukas Kaplan opened the scoring with a wrister from the right dot.
The T-birds tied it in the second off a Braeden Cootes power-play goal. The Tips began to surge more offensively in the second and third periods, but the T-birds held strong.
After Austin Roest scored to give Everett a 2-1 lead late in the third period, the Tips thought they had it all won until a Nathan Pilling tip of a Braeden Cootes shot made it a 2-2 game with less than 30 seconds to go.
There were plenty of opportunities at both ends in OT before Eric Jamieson won it for the Silvertips, stepping up in the play at the top of the left circle and zipping it past Ratzlaff.
Coach Steve Hamilton thought his group’s ability to respond to the adversity of going down a game in the series was a good learning opportunity.
“We stuck to it, and I thought we played really well,” Hamilton said. “I liked our physicality tonight and a lot of the things we did. Just had to stay with it going to overtime.”
Meanwhile, the other side was not pleased with the result but still find themselves in an optimal position as the 8 seed, tied 1-1 going back home.
Seattle head coach Matt O’Dette also liked his group’s willingness to throw the body around in these crucial games.
“It was a hard-fought playoff game with lots of intensity and with both teams playing physically,” O’Dette said. “It’s what you would expect with a rivalry playoff series like this. I thought our group showed a lot of resiliency to battle back in a game like that. It’s unfortunate how it ended and we’re disappointed, but we’ve got to shake it off quick and get ready for the next one.”
Digesting the first two games
With so much to go over from this whole weekend, where do we even begin?
How about we give some love to the men in the masks, particularly the aforementioned one in blue and white.
Ratzlaff was downright unbelievable this weekend, stopping a total of 89 of 94 shots seen, with a .946 save percentage. Some of the saves he made were quite literally jaw-dropping, and he just kept upping the ante.
“It was a lot of fun, honestly,” Ratzlaff said after Game 1. “We all knew coming into this series that Everett’s a tough team and we’re gonna need our absolute best. For us to show up like that is great, but for me it’s just about taking one shot at a time.”
Some of his saves harkened back to ‘The Dominator’ himself, Dominik Hasek, which is ironic given he is currently a prospect of the Buffalo Sabres organization.
I’m not saying he’s going to be the next Dominik Hasek by any means, but with the way he’s been playing lately, he appears well on his way to a successful pro career.
Ratzlaff was a tough cookie to crack all weekend, gobbling up most of what he saw from distance and from in tight. The Tips had a lot of shots this weekend from the point that he would see all the way.
Everett forward Austin Roest was one of the few who cashed in on Ratzlaff, and he mentioned some of the keys to beating a stalwart like him.
“Getting in front of Ratzlaff’s eyes is going to be big,” Roest said following Game 2. “All our goals this series have been when he can’t see the puck. If we play the right way and do the little things, then I think we’ll be in good shape.”
As for the Silvertips, the tandem approach commenced, as both Raiden LeGall and Jesse Sanche made starts this weekend.
Despite stopping 31 of 34 shots Friday, LeGall had some troubles with coughing up juicy, costly rebounds in Game 1, which led Coach Hamilton to giving Sanche the nod for Game 2, where he performed well, stopping 33 of 35 en route to the much-needed win for both him and his team.
Added physicality
The big thing that’s made this series what it’s been is the physicality and animosity between these two fierce rivals. Almost every whistle, it felt like there was at least one or two scrums.
Hamilton said the chippiness was to be expected in a rivalry series like this, but that it’s important to stay disciplined and not get carried away or ultimately end up hurting your team.
“A huge piece of it is not letting the emotions get out of hand or taking extra penalties,” Hamilton said. Each team was even in PPs with three and PIMs with 10 in Game 2. “You want to be in that emotional state where you’re up to the line but not crossing over it. I think both teams feel that way.”
Another unconventional aspect of this series that not many WHL teams have the luxury of experiencing is that both teams get to sleep in their own beds the whole series, as well as not having to deal with strenuous travel schedules.
“It is certainly a bonus,” Hamilton said. “It’s a cumulative thing, and every night you get in your bed is a plus-one advantage; as opposed to long travel with entire nights on a bus.”
Resetting for Tuesday
As the series heads down I-5 to Kent, both teams will be feeling pretty good about their situation.
We talked about this before the series, but the fact that the T-birds were able to steal even just one game in Everett is so beneficial, given how lofty the Silvertips’ entire playoff expectations are as the No. 1 seed.
Now that the home-ice advantage is handed over to the T-birds going forward with Games 3, 4, and 6 being in Kent, it bodes well for the underdogs and momentum shifting back their way.
So there it is. It’s knotted up. Six goals for and against aside, one game aside. Expect to see a lot more of that tight checking and chippiness as the animosity in this series continues to build.
Anything else? Oh yeah, Landon DuPont had three points in his first two career WHL playoff games. He’s 15 years old, by the way.
Header photo courtesy of Brian Liesse and the Seattle Thunderbirds
And with a whimper, the Seattle Kraken were officially eliminated from playoff contention.
We knew this day was coming for a loooooong time, and the conversations around the Kraken shifted to a “we know we’re out of it” sentiment well before the NHL Trade Deadline. But on Saturday, the final stake was driven into what has been a highly disappointing season for Seattle fans, who continue to show up despite their team’s poor performance this year.
Coincidentally, the Dallas Stars—a true Stanley Cup contender—clinched their fourth consecutive playoff berth with the win.
Here are Three Takeaways from a 5-1 Kraken loss to the Stars.
Takeaway #1: Two franchises in very different places
I opted to go to the visitor dressing room after the game Saturday, where the Stars were quietly celebrating their playoff qualification. “We work all year for [making the playoffs], so now we’re focused on winning the division,” said Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger, who made 35 saves.
Then, Pete DeBoer addressed the media outside the Dallas dressing room and reminded folks that Mikko Rantanen—who was acquired and signed to an eight-year contract worth $12 million per season at the deadline—was the team’s best player on this night, finishing with an empty-net goal and two assists.
When DeBoer finished speaking, it so happened that Kraken coach Dan Bylsma was just beginning his post-game presser, so I popped in and listened. Bylsma broke down what went wrong in the game, citing the penalties Seattle took and the team’s lack of success on the power play as key issues.
He also noted that the team has shifted its mindset since the deadline while recognizing the significance of being officially eliminated. “We’ve been focused on playing our best hockey, proving to each other, proving to the fans what kind of team we are. And today, we’re mathematically eliminated, but the rest of the way doesn’t change for us. That’s our goal.”
What struck me is that we are still less than two years removed from Seattle coming up one goal short of knocking off the Stars in Game 7 of the second round of the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs. And yet here we sit, with the Kraken selling at the deadline and a wide swath of the fanbase rooting for more losses to improve the team’s draft lottery odds, while Dallas is adding even more top-end talent to an already deep roster and loading up for a Cup run.
I relish the day when the Kraken, too, are loading up for a Cup run instead of coming up with ways to be relatively competitive in meaningless games while they play out the string.
One day, the Kraken will be perennial contenders—I truly believe that. But right now, they don’t feel particularly close to achieving that status. And to add insult to injury, they got an up-close look Saturday at a club that has reached that level.
Takeaway #2: Fast start, then a slow unraveling
The Kraken looked sharp in the early minutes of this game, even getting a goal from Eeli Tolvanen just 1:27 in after Jared McCann made an outstanding play to burn around Thomas Harley and create a rebound opportunity. They continued to have the better of the play for the first 10 minutes, but little by little, things unraveled, and Dallas began to show its class.
EELI GOAL-VANEN! 🚨
Jared McCann torches Thomas Harley, and Tolvanen bats in the bouncing rebound.
For a staunch defensive team, the Stars have a wealth of offensive weapons, and several of them found the back of the net on Saturday. Jason Robertson got his 33rd goal of the season on an easy tap-in to make it 1-1 at 11:50 of the first, then Roope Hintz notched his 27th of the season on the power play at 18:24.
Things remained fairly stagnant in the second, but once Mason Marchment added another power-play goal 28 seconds into the third period, it was all downhill for Seattle.
Takeaway #3: A poor special teams night
Those two Dallas power-play goals were killers for Seattle in this game, but what made them sting even more was the Kraken’s abysmal performance with the man advantage.
“It’s uncharacteristic of our group to take a lot of penalties,” Bylsma said. “[Special teams are] a huge part of the game. Against good power plays, the best way to keep them off the scoresheet is by not giving them an opportunity.”
In the first period, Seattle had two power-play opportunities but struggled to even get set up in the offensive zone. Dallas—which currently ranks second in the NHL in penalty kill percentage, just a hair behind Carolina at 84.5 percent—used an aggressive PK style that forced Seattle’s players to make quick decisions. Every time the Kraken gained the offensive blue line, they quickly coughed up the puck and watched it get cleared the length of the ice.
After those two poor showings from the Kraken power play in the first, the Stars got their first opportunity of the night and wasted no time converting, with Hintz one-timing a cheeky little saucer pass from Jason Robertson over Joey Daccord’s shoulder.
On a night when we were reminded of how far apart these two teams are right now, the special teams battle—in which Dallas went 2-for-5 on the power play while Seattle went 0-for-4—was a microcosm of the disparity between the franchises.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Look, we recognize these weren’t the Edmonton Oilers we’ve come to know and hate—the ones that feature two of the world’s best players in currently injured Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. We also recognize that this version of the Oilers was without other players like Mattias Ekholm and Stuart Skinner (who wouldn’t have played this game anyway), and Edmonton was on the second of back-to-back games with travel.
BUT…
It surely felt good from the Kraken perspective to give that team a good spanking for a change. The Oilers have absolutely owned the Kraken over the history of Seattle’s franchise, and the Kraken were just 2-11-1 all-time in the series coming into this game. They also had nine straight losses against Edmonton, with the last win coming way back on Jan. 3, 2023.
So, a lopsided win Thursday is both notable and well received by Seattle and its fans.
Here are Three Takeaways from a 6-1 Kraken win over the Oilers.
Takeaway #1: Coach’s challenge was a turning point
After 20 minutes, this game felt like it could go either way. The Oilers were on tired legs, but they had some dangerous chances in the first period that were thwarted by Joey Daccord, who had an impressive night, stopping 36 of 37 shots (I’m not focusing on him in this article, but I was very encouraged to see him play the way he did after a slight drop in his play lately). Daccord’s shutout bid was spoiled by Zach Hyman five minutes into the third.
HOWEVER…
The Oilers did appear to take a 1-0 lead with 52 seconds left in the first after a puck popped way up in the air, dropped perfectly for Jeff Skinner, and he lifted it over Daccord’s shoulder.
NO GOAL!
Looked like Jeff Skinner had scored, but the #SeaKraken successfully challenged for a missed high stick on Connor Brown.
0-0 through 20 minutes. Some nice saves at both ends by Daccord and Pickard. Shots 12-12. pic.twitter.com/nQolDbiXUA
Seattle coach Dan Bylsma challenged the play for a missed stoppage due to a high stick by Connor Brown while the puck was floating through the air. Super slow motion showed that Brown’s stick barely made contact with the puck, but what I personally think got missed on the review is that after it touched Brown’s stick at an illegally high point, it then grazed the glove of Vince Dunn. If it did touch Dunn’s glove, then I think that should be a good goal, since Seattle would have been the most recent team to touch the puck before it landed for Skinner.
Bylsma gave all the credit for the successful challenge to video coaches Tim Ohashi and Brady Morgan but conceded that he was “deeply worried” Seattle would not win it.
“The first period was a little bit too much 50/50 for me,” Bylsma said. “They had two power plays, the penalty kill did a great job of killing them off, but the game was certainly still 50/50 at that point in time. And the high stick was a huge, huge call. All props to Brady and Tim in the video room, because it felt like a high stick, but it was not super— I didn’t see all the replays, but I wasn’t like ‘100 percent, oh yeah, that’s a high stick.’ It just changed the puck a little bit, and Brady and Tim were on it. And no, I wasn’t 100% confident we were going to get it.”
That ended up being a pivotal moment in the game because, instead of taking a 1-0 deficit into the second with the bad feelings of a late-period goal against, Seattle entered the middle frame on level footing and quickly took advantage.
Takeaway #2: What a second period
In that middle frame, the Kraken dominated every inch of the ice and were rewarded with five goals in one period for the third time in franchise history. It started with a tap-in power-play goal by Jaden Schwartz off a beautiful pass from Andre Burakovsky.
THE POWER OF THE SCHWARTZ! 🚨
Perfect setup by Burakovsky, and an easy tap-in for Jaden Schwartz on the power play. Three straight games with a goal for Schwartz.
“We’re not rushing it [on the power play],” Burakovsky said. “I think, before, we were making a little dumb decisions sometimes, trying to force it and trying to maybe make the harder play. I think right now, we’re moving it a little bit quicker, we recognize when they’re putting pressure, and then we bypass that guy.”
I asked Bylsma what got the period rolling the way it did, and interestingly, he credited the hard forechecking of Mikey Eyssimont (who coincidentally only played two shifts in the period). I went back and watched Eyssimont’s first shift of the frame, and lo and behold, it was his pressure on Jake Walman that led to the Edmonton defenseman throwing a hot pizza pie to Schwartz, who was fresh off the bench.
“It happened fast,” Schwartz said. “[Tye Kartye] made a good change, and I just kind of hopped on. I think a couple of guys might have been forechecking the D-man and put pressure on him, and I just don’t think he saw me coming off the bench.”
After that, the ball just started rolling downhill for the Kraken. They got three more goals in very quick succession, with Jani Nyman tipping one through Calvin Pickard, Matty Beniers whacking one into an open net after a nice setup by Kaapo Kakko, and Burakovsky going skate to stick to make it 5-0.
The three goals came in a span of just 1:51, and there was even a fourth one in there by Jordan Eberle that got negated by an offside challenge.
As Ron Burgundy said, “That escalated quickly.”
Takeaway #3: Jaden Schwartz is rolling
Schwartz scored for the third game in a row and had two in this game, bringing him to 23 on the season. For a guy that has had a lot of health issues during his time in Seattle, it has been fun to watch this resurgence from the 32-year-old winger.
His 45 points (23-22—45 in 73 games played) are already his best offensive output as a Kraken (previous best was 21-19—40 in 71 GP in 2022-23), and his 23 goals are his highest total since 2017-18, when he scored 24 with the St. Louis Blues.
“Every year is a little different,” Schwartz said. “It’s hard to point to one thing, but I had a good offseason, was able to get my body where it needed to be, and definitely being healthy [helps]. Some seasons, you kind of have dings here and there, and most of it’s unlucky. But, [in an] 82-game season, most guys are battling through stuff. So I’m just taking it day by day, enjoying it, and just trying to bring my best and improve on a daily basis.”
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
We’re at that point in the season when the Seattle Kraken are playing games that no longer have playoff implications. I still enjoy tuning in, but it’s undeniably more fun when they win or battle hard in close contests.
The decreasing importance of the games got us at Sound Of Hockey thinking about how to prevent tanking in the NHL—the act of deliberately icing a subpar roster in hopes of losing and landing a higher draft pick.
Let’s walk through the pros and cons of tanking, and explore some ideas to prevent it.
NHL Entry Draft
Prior to the 1995-96 season, draft position was solely based on the previous season’s standings. The last-place team automatically got the first pick, effectively rewarding teams for tanking. So in 1995, the NHL introduced the draft lottery to curb that trend.
Today, all 16 non-playoff teams are entered into the draft lottery. The last-place team has a 25.5 percent chance at the first overall pick, with the odds decreasing incrementally up to the 17th-place team, which has a 0.5 percent chance. However, teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots. So, for example, if the 14th-place team is drawn first, they only jump to the fourth overall pick, and the last-place team retains the first overall selection.
Two lottery draws are made: one for the first overall pick and one for the second. The remaining picks are slotted in based on the final standings.
This system is designed to help teams at the bottom rebuild by drafting the top players. A key benefit is that it adds unpredictability to the draft order, keeping hope alive for teams just outside the playoffs. But the downside is clear: bottom teams still have the best odds, and teams that barely miss the playoffs often end up stuck in the murky middle.
Rewarded for losing
Under the current system, the last-place team is guaranteed a top-three pick and holds the best odds to land the first overall selection. It’s an improvement over the pre-lottery format, but the core issue remains: the worst teams are still rewarded more than those who narrowly miss the playoffs.
The Kraken have yet to pick first overall in their young history, but they’ve benefited from the system. In their inaugural season, a postponed game, originally scheduled for April 13, against the Winnipeg Jets was rescheduled to May 1—after the NHL playoffs had already begun. The Kraken held a 3-1 lead after two periods, but Winnipeg stormed back with three goals in 4:16 to win 4-3. It looked like a meaningless game, but the outcome mattered. A Kraken win would have meant finishing 28th; a loss placed them 29th. That one loss kept them below the Philadelphia Flyers and ahead of them in the draft order. The New Jersey Devils eventually won the second lottery draw, bumping Seattle to the fourth overall pick.
With the fourth overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, the Kraken selected Shane Wright. Had they won that final game, they would have picked fifth, and Wright might be wearing orange as a Philadelphia Flyer. As of March 25, Wright leads all 2022 first-round picks in career points per 60 minutes at 2.481. Logan Cooley ranks second at 2.410.
I’m not saying Seattle tanked during its inaugural season—playoff expectations were high after Vegas’s expansion success—but it’s a good example of how losing can still be rewarded under the current system.
Burn Point Threshold
I love the competitive nature of hockey and want teams to strive for wins without being penalized for it. While the current lottery discourages blatant tanking, it still rewards losing and punishes late-season wins, leaving teams stuck between integrity and draft position.
Enter the Burn Point Threshold, or BPT—a system I created to eliminate tanking incentives while still supporting struggling teams.
Under BPT, all 16 non-playoff teams enter the draft lottery with equal odds—one entry each, no weighted balls, no rewards for finishing lower. The draft order is then shaped by a point-based threshold.
Here’s how it works:
Each non-playoff team is assigned “burn points” (BP) on a sliding scale based on standings: 32nd place gets one point, 31st gets two points, 30th gets three points, and so on up to 17th place, which gets 16 points.
The lottery draws teams at random, one at a time.
As teams are drawn, their burn points are subtracted from a 16-point threshold.
Once the burn total reaches or exceeds 16, the lottery ends.
The drawn teams receive the top picks in the order selected. Remaining teams are slotted in by reverse standings starting after the last lottery pick. In this system, the number of lottery picks is dynamic. If a playoff bubble team draws the first overall pick, the draft ends sooner, allowing lower teams to still get decent selections. But if teams near the bottom of the standings are drawn, the lottery continues until the point threshold is met or exceeded. This levels the playing field by giving equal odds to all non-playoff teams, reducing the incentive to finish last.
Burn Point Threshold examples
Here are a couple of examples of how a draft could play out:
Let’s say the 24th-place team (nine BP), the 27th-place team (six BP), and the 31st-place team (two BP) are drawn. That adds up to 17 burn points—lottery over. Those teams pick first, second, and third in the order they were drawn. The 32nd-place team would pick fourth overall.
In a separate scenario, the 17th-place team (16 BP) hits on the first draw. The lottery ends immediately. That team picks first overall, and the rest of the draft proceeds in reverse standings order, starting with the 32nd-place team picking second overall.
Data for Burn Point Threshold
We simulated 10,000 draft lotteries to test fairness and function.
In BPT, every non-playoff team has an equal shot at the first overall pick. But since the lottery ends at 16 burn points, the two last-place teams never will get less than a sixth overall pick and 99.3 percent of the time will get a top-five pick. It’s not a flat-odds system—it’s a fair-odds system.
Here are the percentages for each pick in the 10,000 draft simulations.
Pros of Burn Point Threshold
The BPT model brings a dynamic element to the draft process, introducing an increased level of unpredictability while ensuring teams aren’t penalized for competing and winning. All non-playoff teams start on equal footing while still guaranteeing the last-place team a top-six pick through the burn point structure.
It strikes a balance between fairness and function—every team gets a chance, but those who struggled still have an opportunity to land a high pick. The result is a draft system that rewards effort and maintains meaningful competition until the final horn of the season.
Tweaking the BPT model
One of the strengths of the Burn Point Threshold (BPT) system is its flexibility. The core structure—equal odds, a point-based cutoff, and reverse-standings fallback—provides a solid foundation to build on. Here are two simple, impactful ways to tweak BPT without compromising its integrity:
16+1 Rule: Requires one additional team to be drawn after the 16-point threshold is reached, guaranteeing at least two lottery winners and adding a little extra suspense to the process.
Adjustable Threshold: Raising the burn point threshold (to 20, 24, etc.) increases the number of lottery picks and spreads top selections more evenly. Lower thresholds keep the lottery shorter and offer greater protection for the league’s worst teams. I used 16 points in the initial model to emphasize support for struggling teams. But the threshold is fully adjustable. If tanking remains a concern, the league can raise the threshold. This extends the lottery, adds unpredictability, and makes it harder to game the system. At the same time, it gives the league control over how broadly top picks are distributed.
Here is how the draft pick odds change when using 24 BP, instead of 16 (10,000 simulations):
Other options to prevent tanking
There are several other proposals aimed at discouraging tanking while still supporting struggling teams. While we won’t dive into all of them here, two of the more popular ideas are “The Gold Plan” and a single-elimination tournament.
The Gold Plan
“The Gold Plan” was created by Adam Gold, hence the name. This idea awards draft order based on performance after a team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The more points a team earns after elimination, the higher their draft position.
It adds competitive meaning to late-season games and may encourage teams to retain key players instead of offloading them at the trade deadline. However, one drawback is that it could incentivize teams to tank earlier in the season just to reach elimination sooner and start banking points.
Another idea is a March Madness-style bracket for all non-playoff teams to determine draft order. It’s exciting in theory but raises concerns. Would players risk injury in meaningless games? Would expiring-contract players want to jeopardize future deals? This concept is fun on paper, but it would be tough to implement in practice.
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it
Some fans are fine with tanking and think the current system works. Tanking doesn’t guarantee the first overall pick—just better odds. And it helps bad teams rebuild through the draft. That said, rewarding losses feels flawed. Systems like BPT and The Gold Plan offer a way to level the field without incentivizing losing.
Is tanking a problem in the NHL?
Tanking remains one of the most polarizing aspects of professional sports—especially in leagues like the NHL, where a single draft pick can reshape a franchise’s future when a generational talent enters the mix. While the current system tries to discourage tanking, it still leaves room for strategic underperformance. Fans want to see their teams compete every night—not quietly fold for the sake of odds.
That’s why proposals like the Burn Point Threshold or The Gold Plan deserve consideration. Both aim to reward effort, not apathy, while still helping weaker teams restock talent. Whether it’s a dynamic lottery cap or a post-elimination points race, these systems offer fresh ways to reshape the draft without penalizing teams for playing hard.
What are your thoughts? Should the NHL explore bold changes to prevent tanking? Would you prefer something like BPT or The Gold Plan, or does the current system work well enough?
Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
If Matt Coronato’s upper lip had been just a little stiffer, the Seattle Kraken might have won their game against the Calgary Flames in regulation on Tuesday. When Brandon Montour’s errant stick caught the Calgary forward in the mouth with 9:35 left in the game—while the Kraken held a tenuous 2-1 lead—that top lip (or perhaps gum area?) did, indeed, shed enough blood to earn Montour a second penalty on the play.
On the ensuing double-minor penalty, the Kraken had a fantastic kill going for nearly three and a half minutes. But Nazem Kadri finally broke through to tie the game, giving the Flames a massive momentum boost. Had Coronato’s lip stayed in tact, Montour would have only gotten two minutes, and Seattle would have killed it off and perhaps gotten a boost of its own.
Although the Kraken again rallied to get the game to overtime, Kadri scored again in the OT period, sealing a signature win for Calgary.
Here are Three Takeaways from a 4-3 overtime Kraken loss to the Flames.
Takeaway #1: Another great rally
One characteristic of Seattle Kraken hockey that has mostly survived through the ups and downs of the franchise’s first four seasons is the team’s refusal to quit in games. After Rasmus Andersson gave the Flames a 3-2 lead with just 4:11 left—using Jaden Schwartz as a screen and ripping a slap shot past Joey Daccord’s blocker—Seattle, very much out of playoff contention, absolutely could have packed it in. In fact, most teams in Seattle’s position probably would have.
But the Kraken fought back for the umpteenth time, pounding away with Daccord pulled for an extra attacker until Matty Beniers jammed a rebound and created another chance for Jordan Eberle to whack it through a sprawled Dustin Wolf.
We’ve argued several times that loser points are the worst outcome for the Kraken at this point because they: A) don’t get the mental boost of winning the game, and B) only hurt their draft position by stealing single points in the standings. Still, this was a highly entertaining game to watch, so I was oddly accepting of the loser point on this particular night.
Good on the Kraken for not giving up.
Takeaway #2: Dustin Wolf wins the goalie duel
Joey Daccord gave up four goals on 37 shots in this game, finishing with an .892 save percentage. Believe it or not, in his last 10 starts, he’s been below .900 eight times and is now flirting with dropping below that mark for the season. It’s totally arbitrary, but I’ve always viewed .900 as an important number for a netminder to stay above (worth noting: Philipp Grubauer was well above it every season of his career until he got to Seattle, but he has never been above it for a season as a Kraken).
That trend is concerning for Daccord, but I thought he deserved better in this game. The ice tilted dramatically in Calgary’s favor in the third period, especially after the Montour double minor. Daccord faced 14 shots in the final frame, and with the way momentum shifted, you could really feel both the tying and go-ahead goals coming.
Where things got really interesting in the goaltending department was during the overtime period. Both goalies came up with monster saves, with Daccord’s best coming on a bang-bang pass play through the crease that he slid across to stop. That save left Morgan Frost shaking his head in disbelief.
The most important save of the night, though, belonged to Wolf. More on that in Takeaway #3.
That extra frame was a fun display of goaltending at both ends, but it concluded with Kadri netting his second goal of the game on a breakaway.
Takeaway #3: An overtime gamble goes bad
Kadri’s overtime game-winner came after an interesting decision by the Kraken duo of Eberle and Vince Dunn (Jared McCann was also out there, but he wasn’t as much of a linchpin in the pivotal play).
With a little more than a minute left in the extra frame, Eberle forechecked and stole the puck from Coronato at the offensive goal line. From down low, he spotted Dunn streaking down the slot completely unmarked. He delayed long enough until Dunn was in point-blank shooting range, then laid a perfect pass out for the defenseman to lean on his stick and unleash a one-time missile.
Of course, it was the right pass to set Dunn up for a potential game-winning shot toward Wolf. The only problem? Dunn was the last guy back for the Kraken.
As the pass slid toward the slot, Wolf launched off the goal line and stonewalled Dunn, who got good wood on the one-timer. But Coronato picked up the rebound and headed north, with Kadri—not even attempting to play defense on the play—well ahead of all three Kraken players.
In a way, the Kraken skaters on the ice accepted that they were about to either win or lose the game and pushed all their chips into the middle. Either Dunn rips it home and Seattle celebrates a big-time spoiler win over a divisional rival fighting for a playoff spot, or a breakaway comes back the other direction.
In this case, the latter happened, and the Kraken went bust.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
