We’ve reached the apex of Sound Of Hockey Prospect Week. Over the last two days, we dug into the data on Kraken prospects and team prospect pools around the league. Today, we present our 2023-24 postseason Sound Of Hockey consensus Seattle Kraken prospect ranking.
Today’s ranking answers a simple question: How do we rank Seattle’s top 10 prospects? The only criteria we put on it is that the player must be younger than 25 years old and have played fewer than 50 NHL games. Beyond that, we were free to arrive at our lists however we saw fit–eye test, data, phase of the moon, you name it.
Who is the “we” forming this consensus? Glad you asked. This list is built from equal parts:
Today, we’ll give you the consensus top 10 prospects board, with key data and video on each prospect. We’ll also give you a look at each of the four component lists at the bottom of this post. Tomorrow we’ll return with a Sound Of Hockey roundtable to discuss Seattle’s top prospects, what we’re excited about, and what we each got right and wrong with our lists.
The Sound Of Hockey consensus Seattle Kraken prospect ranking
1. Shane Wright 6’0” | C | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2022 round 1 pick 22 goals | 25 assists | 59 games played | 0.8 PPG
7. Ryan Winterton 6’2” | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2021 round 3 pick 22 goals | 13 assists | 58 games played | 0.6 PPG
8. Eduard Sale 6’2” | RW | Multiple teams | OHL | 2023 round 1 pick 15 goals | 23 assists | 49 games played | 0.78 PPG
9. Ville Ottavainen 6’5” | RD | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2021 round 4 pick 8 goals | 26 assists | 70 games played | 0.49 PPG
T-10. Logan Morrison 6’0” | C | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | undrafted 16 goals | 25 assists | 64 games played | 0.64 PPG
T-10. Oscar Fisker Mølgaard 6’0” | C | HV71 | SHL | 2023 round 2 pick 9 goals | 12 assists | 50 games played | 0.42 PPG
Also receiving votes: Ty Nelson (D), Niklas Kokko (G)
The four lists used to make the consensus ranking
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Welcome to Prospect Week at Sound Of Hockey. All week we’ll bring you content about the players that will be the future of the Seattle Kraken and other teams around the NHL. Today, I’ll kick things off with a “data-only” ranking of Seattle’s skater prospects.
This “data-only” ranking is built on Thibaud Chatel’s NHL equivalency research and uses only quantifiable measures: prospect points per game and strength of the player’s current league, with adjustments made by me for prospect age and positional value.
This approach is similar to what we did in making a data-based ranking of 2023 NHL Draft and 2024 NHL Draft prospects. If you want the full gory details on method, check out this post describing the process from earlier this offseason.
But, more to the point, here we’re updating our work from last offseason when we ranked every NHL-affiliated skater prospect (both drafted and signed players) that met two criteria: (1) younger than 25 years old, and (2) fewer than 50 NHL games played, based on their 2022-23 data.
Now that the final buzzer has sounded on the 2023-24 regular season in every professional, developmental, and amateur hockey league around the world where NHL prospects play, we can re-run the analysis using data from this season.
In this post, we’ll focus on the Seattle-specific results. Tomorrow we’ll have a follow-up post that ranks all 946 NHL-affiliated prospects meeting our criteria and compares Seattle’s prospect pool to those of the 31 other NHL teams. How do Seattle’s prospects measure up overall? Check in again tomorrow to find out.
No eyeball test here
Before getting to the results, I should reiterate that this rank order does not contain any adjustments for subjective preference or the “eye test.” That will come later this week when we’ll publish our first Sound Of Hockey consensus prospect ranking.
Today’s “data-only” exercise is meant to complement those more traditional assessments. Are there players that the scouting lists have overlooked? If so, we can try to figure out if the player is under-appreciated. Or, conversely, we can dig into whether there is a flaw in the player’s game that could hold the player back from translating his current production to the NHL level. The data is helpful in honing in on these outlier cases that may be worthy of a second look (for good or bad).
Data-only prospect ranking
Without further ado, you can find the full ranking, with more data on each prospect HERE.
Important note on using the data-only ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Let’s dig into the Top 10, as well as a few of the more interesting lower-ranked skaters.
28 goals | 17 assists | 53 games played | 0.85 PPG
If it surprises you to see Jani Nyman at No. 1 over Shane Wright, don’t worry, you’re not alone. I was surprised too. Both are 2022 draft picks, and Wright not only reached the more advanced developmental league, but he performed well. And when Wright played with the Kraken in April, he looked like he belonged. By many accounts, Nyman isn’t quite as close to NHL-ready. So, what gives?
While it flew a bit under the radar, Jani Nyman had a historic scoring season in Finland’s top professional league, Liiga. He scored 26 goals, which is the fourth-most ever in Liiga by an under-20 player and most since Mikko Mäkelä in 1984-85. Overall, he was second in the league in goals. The next youngest player in the top five in goal scoring was 25 years old.
According to Thibaud Chatel’s win shares metric, which is based on goals, assists, and plus-minus, adjusted for playing time, position, team, and league context, Nyman was the second-best player in Liiga.
All of that said, my adjusted NHLe numbers for Nyman and Wright were extremely close. But for the fact that Nyman is about six months younger than Wright, Wright would have come out slightly ahead. Without spoiling too much of tomorrow’s post, here is a chart that shows the Kraken’s top 10 prospects against their overall league rank. You’ll see Nyman and Wright are neck and neck.
Nyman’s adjusted NHLe rank would have made him the top prospect in 20 of 31 other systems.
2. Shane Wright
6’0” | C | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2022 round 1 pick
22 goals | 25 assists | 59 games played | 0.8 PPG
Though Jani Nyman edged Shane Wright out for first place in this data-only ranking, Wright had a very productive AHL season that would have made him the top “data-only” prospect in most (19 of 31) systems. Among all AHL skaters who played at least one game under age 20 during the 2023-24 AHL season, Wright had the most points (47), second-most goals (22), and third-best on-ice plus-minus (+6). He looks primed to assume a top-nine role for the Seattle Kraken in 2024-25.
52 goals | 43 assists | 60 games played | 1.58 PPG
Rehkopf led the OHL in goals scored per game and finished second in total goals. His 95 points were sixth in that league.
Rehkopf ranks slightly above Jagger Firkus and David Goyette who have higher raw point totals in the CHL for two reasons. First, and most importantly, Rehkopf is younger than Goyette and Firkus. Accomplishing nearly comparable production while being nine months younger than Goyette and seven months younger than Firkus is important in evaluating current prospect performance and making projections for the future.
Second, the OHL remains the strongest of the CHL leagues, though the margin separating it from the WHL has narrowed. So, Rehkopf’s OHL scoring gets a fraction more credit than would comparable scoring in Firkus’ WHL.
As we investigated previously, Rehkopf’s scoring pace of greater than 1.5 points per game gives him about a 20 percent chance of emerging as a top NHL performer and a 60 percent chance of establishing himself as an NHL lineup regular within the next five years.
Rehkopf’s adjusted NHLe would make him the top prospect in eight other systems.
4. David Goyette
5’10” | C | Multiple teams | OHL/AHL | 2022 round 2 pick
40 goals | 77 assists | 69 games played | 1.7 PPG
With Rehkopf scoring 50 goals in his age 18 season, and Firkus leading the CHL in scoring, David Goyette flew under the radar a bit, but his season deserves more attention. Goyette led the OHL in scoring. Goyette accomplished this in part on the strength of teaming with one of the very best lines in junior hockey in Dalibor Dvorsky and Quentin Musty, but late in the season, Sudbury broke up that line and moved Goyette to the second line to drive play on his own. He continued to produce, recording 20 points in the team’s final 10 regular-season games.
Goyette was also second in the OHL in assists and third in points per game. Similar to Rehkopf, he would be the top prospect for eight other teams in this ranking.
While Goyette led the OHL in scoring, Firkus led the entire CHL in that department, notching 126 points in 63 games, a truly amazing two-points-per-game pace. (What’s more: While it is not factored into this ranking, he leads the WHL playoff in scoring with 31 points in 18 games as of this posting.)
Firkus’s scoring pace matched Oliver Bjorkstrand’s pace in Oliver’s 2014-15 WHL season, his last with the Portland Winterhawks. Bjorkstrand played 68 AHL games the season after, scoring 27 goals and 18 assists, as well as 12 NHL games, with four goals and four assists.
Could Bjorkstrand’s trajectory be a model for Firkus? It’s interesting to consider because while Bjorkstrand is and always was slight in stature, he amazes with his ability to stay sturdy on the puck and his skates in the face of consistent size disadvantages. Firkus faces the same challenge and then some, measuring in an inch shorter and perhaps 15 pounds lighter than Bjorkstrand. Can Firkus make the same leap? It’s the challenge in front of him, and it may take time. That said, he couldn’t have done much more in the junior ranks. His statistics say he has approximately a 50 percent chance of becoming an NHL regular within five years.
Jagger Firkus (Photo/Brian Liesse)
6. Ryan Winterton
6’2” | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2021 round 3 pick
22 goals | 13 assists | 58 games played | 0.6 PPG
Winteron had a normal and fully healthy season for the first time in recent memory, and it allowed him to put together an impressive AHL season, topping 20 goals offensively. And while it doesn’t factor into an NHLe ranking, he was an important defensive presence too, finishing 11th overall in plus-minus and first among players who played at least one AHL game at age 21 this season, while also logging penalty kill minutes.
While his scoring pace matched Ryker Evans and trailed Logan Morrison at the AHL level, he is (narrowly) ahead of both on this list because he is younger than both by a wide margin–22 months younger than Evans and 10 months younger than Morrison.
7. Logan Morrison
6’0” | C | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | undrafted
16 goals | 25 assists | 64 games played | 0.64 PPG
Entering the Kraken system as an undrafted free agent, Morrison wasted no time winning fans amongst the Coachella Valley staff. He not only secured a spot as a lineup regular from the jump, he also earned a top-unit power-play position almost immediately. Morrison ended the season tied for 17th in scoring and tied for ninth in plus-minus among all AHL rookies.
Morrison ranks fifth among all undrafted free agents across the league in this adjusted NHLe ranking.
Evans may arrive later on this list than expected, but I think that says less about Evans than about those in front of him on this list, each of whom had impressive scoring seasons that put them within or on the verge of the top 100 overall skating prospects in this data-only look.
Evans’ story is well-known at this point. He went undrafted during his first draft season only to develop physically and on the ice in the year that followed. The Kraken were so impressed they made him a second-round draft pick as an overager. From there, Evans has done nothing but validate Seattle’s feelings about him.
Evans’s relatively late physical maturity has put him slightly behind the development curve of the very top prospects in the game, and this hurts him in this NHLe ranking. Even so, he checks in as the league’s 125th overall prospect and 14th-ranked defense prospect who played games in the AHL this season.
Evans may never be a star NHL performer, but his prospect track record (and 36 NHL games during the 2023-24 season) suggest he should have a career as a bottom-four blueliner.
Ryker Evans (Photo/Brian Liesse)
9. Oscar Fisker Mølgaard
6’0” | C | HV71 | SHL | 2023 round 2 pick
9 goals | 12 assists | 50 games played | 0.42 PPG
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard is an under-discussed prospect whose data profile took a marked step forward this year. Mølgaard, who doesn’t turn 20 until next February, had 21 points in the SHL, Sweden’s top professional league. This led the league among all players who played at least one game this past season as an 18-year-old, and, perhaps even more impressively, ranked fifth overall among all players who played at age 23 or younger.
In this way, the data has started to catch up to glowing scouting reports, which credit his sound defensive game, pace, and ability to drive play. Perhaps the strongest proof of concept with Mølgaard is the fact that he has already logged 91 games in the SHL. This is the 10th-most in SHL history for a player his age.
Mølgaard capped off his strong season playing for Denmark at the 2024 IIHF Men’s World Championship where he was the youngest player on the roster by four years.
Similar to Mølgaard, Ville Ottavainen is another European prospect who saw his scoring data tick upward during the 2023-24 season. Drafted as a height-weight-speed prospect, he started to really put things together in his first year in North America this season, recording eight goals and 26 assists in 70 games for Coachella Valley. He also led the AHL among rookies in plus-minus at +27.
If he can maintain the scoring, Ottavainen’s stature and athleticism give him a real chance to emerge as a bottom-four right defenseman in the NHL within the next two years.
11. Ty Nelson
5’9” | RD | North Bay Battalion | OHL | 2022 round 3 pick
16 goals | 36 assists | 54 games played | 0.96 PPG
Ty Nelson’s draft-plus-two season saw his production slip slightly from his previous standard, but he still put up nearly a point per game from the blue line in the OHL, which is no small feat. A major question facing Nelson is whether he can succeed at his height, given the length disadvantages he’ll face in the professional ranks.
There was very little left for Nelson to prove at the OHL level this past year, and I got the sense he and the organization were really just biding their time until they could see how his game translates to the professional level. He’ll get his chance during the 2024-25 season. Nelson’s data suggests he has a shot to make the leap, particularly given his strong work in past seasons.
15 goals | 23 assists | 49 games played | 0.78 PPG
Eduard Sale’s draft-minus-one year (at age 17) was immensely productive in the Czech U20 league. And he flashed dominant skills in international tournaments too. However, his draft year production in the top-level Czech professional league was mediocre.
He has now followed that up with mediocre production playing against junior competition in the OHL this year.
As Kraken general manager Ron Francis has repeatedly said, player development is not a straight line. There is reason to reserve judgment and allow Sale additional time to see if he can get his production up to the level of his ample on-puck skills.
That said, so far, Sale is looking like a scouting miss. Drafted at No. 20 overall, he was 25th in my 2023 Draft NHLe ranking, and his post-draft-year production sees him fall to the 329th overall prospect in hockey. The team bypassed players with obviously superior data profiles in the first round in 2023 to draft Sale. The choice was surprising at the time. And, while the jury is still out, the early signs are not good.
14 goals | 37 assists | 69 games played | 0.74 PPG
Unlike Sale, Dragicevic had a highly productive draft season that made him the No. 8 overall prospect in my 2023 NHL Draft data-only ranking. Add to that the fact that he’s a 6-foot-1, right-shot defenseman, and Seattle’s 2023 second-round draft pick seemed like one to be excited about.
However, his offensive production took a step back across the board this season in his third year on the blue line for the WHL’s Tri-City Americans. After 75 points in his draft season, he managed just 50 this year. And while there was discussion that he was focusing on improvements to his defense, his plus-minus plummeted as well from a -2 in his draft year to -31 this season.
All of that said, Tri-City struggled as a group this year. His raw scoring decline is due, at least in part, to a decline in talent around him, as the team scored 50 fewer goals total this season than last. Tri-City’s 49 standings points in 2023-24 were second worst in the WHL. Arguably, Dragicevic may be entitled to a mulligan given the group around him, but it’s also fair to say he wasn’t able to elevate that team. He faces a very important year ahead.
No player helped his stock over the back half of the 2023-24 season more than Tyson Jugnauth. In December, Jugnauth made the rare decision to leave his college (the University of Wisconsin) and join a junior club (the Portland Winterhawks). Since that time, Jugnauth’s offensive game has exploded. Entrusted with a power play role and the ability to activate through the neutral zone and into the offensive end, he tallied seven goals and 34 assists in Portland’s last 41 games. This scoring pace ranked seventh among all WHL defensemen in 2023-24.
Like Evans, Jugnauth has been on a slower development path, which hurts him in the NHLe ranking. But if he can prove his scoring this season was no fluke, there may be a player here that Seattle should sign and develop long-term.
* * *
What surprises you? Anything look off? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter/X at @deepseahockey and @sound_hockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Welcome to Sound Debate! We’ve never tried this before, but John Barr and I (Darren Brown) have enjoyed conversing offline about whether or not the Seattle Kraken should pursue embattled Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner this offseason. Here, we’ve put that discourse into a written format to discuss why Seattle should or shouldn’t attempt to land the high-scoring winger.
To give some context, Marner is an elite playmaking winger and part of the “core four” in Toronto who has come within spitting distance of 100 points on three separate occasions in his eight-year NHL career. His regular season was shortened to 69 games in 2023-24, yet he still managed 85 points (26-59–85) before a relatively quiet playoff series against the Boston Bruins in which he posted a goal and three assists in the seven-game series.
The rub is that the Leafs’ season again ended after one playoff round, and Toronto’s blood-thirsty media is calling for change. Head coach Sheldon Keefe has already been dismissed, and there’s plenty of speculation that the offensive core of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Marner could have a hole blown into it in the coming months. Toronto always has a whipping boy, and–whether fair or not–Marner took that title this season.
Worth noting, Marner also has one season left on a massive six-year deal that comes with a $10.9 million salary cap hit in 2024-25. If Leafs general manager Brad Treliving is truly considering moving Marner, now would be the time to do it. Should Seattle try for him?
Embrace debate.
Q: What would it take for the Kraken to land Marner?
Darren: Several days ago, a speculative article from Sportsnet proposed Adam Larsson and Shane Wright for Marner. I actually think that could be in line with the type of return that could pry Marner out of Toronto. I would absolutely hate to see Wright moved, especially considering the progress he has shown this season toward becoming a bona fide NHL center. He is right on the cusp.
But bringing a player like Marner will only happen if the player(s) and/or picks going back the other way sting for Kraken fans. As for Larsson, John, you mentioned on the latest Sound Of Hockey Podcast that you don’t see him waiving his no-movement clause, and I agree with you. I don’t think he’s going anywhere, but I could see a different defenseman being sent the other way like either Will Borgen or Jamie Oleksiak.
My personal preference would be that the Kraken give whatever they need to give in draft picks plus a supplementary current player to get it done, even if that means trading the No. 8 overall pick in this summer’s draft.
John: Having Wright as part of a deal feels a little rich to me, but that could be an example of the endowment effect, where we tend to value things we own more than they are actually worth. I wouldn’t even want to see Carson Rehkopf as part of a deal, but the Kraken will need to trade something of significant value for the Maple Leafs to even consider it.
The Kraken’s biggest assets are their prospects, and that might not be what the Leafs are looking for right now. If they want to change things up on their roster, they are probably seeking players who can contribute immediately rather than in the future.
A trade for Marner still feels far-fetched because the Kraken don’t have many players on the NHL roster right now that the Leafs would be interested in. And it’s also possible that if the Leafs are interested in any current players, the Kraken may not want to give those players up because they’re too thin right now.
Let’s not forget, Marner has a full no-move clause and controls where he can be dealt. It is entirely possible and likely that Seattle is not on his short list of places he would like to be traded to.
Q: What is the price of prospects you would be willing to pay?
Darren: It scares me to give up Wright. A lot of Seattle’s future currently hinges on his success, and I still love the look of Matty Beniers and Wright as Seattle’s one-two punch in the middle of the ice for years to come.
I wonder if they could keep Wright and send any combination of two other prospects to the Maple Leafs. Would some combination of Rehkopf (John, I know you love him and just said you don’t want him moved, but I would want to keep Wright over Rehkopf), Jagger Firkus, Ryker Evans, and/or Jani Nyman get it done? Those would be easier pills to swallow, and again, draft picks are fine by me.
John: I would do it for Jagger Firkus and Ryker Evans right now, but I am not sure that gets the deal done for Toronto. If it required Shane Wright, I would pass.
Q: Should the Kraken consider trading for Marner?
John: Without question, the Kraken should consider this opportunity. Marner is an elite NHL forward who has consistently ranked in the top 10 in the league for points per game over the last three seasons. Talent of this caliber rarely becomes available, so the Kraken should strongly consider pursuing him if the Leafs start shopping him.
Darren: You’re right, John, and he would instantly become the best player on the Kraken by a long shot. I question how real the desire is from Treliving to move on from Marner at this juncture, but where there’s smoke, there tends to be fire with this kind of thing.
John: I see this situation similar to the Matthew Tkachuk scenario, where the player is entering the final year of his contract, and an extension seems unlikely. They need to get something in return for him, and now would be the opportune moment. However, the player holds significant control in this situation, so it’s debatable whether he would even consider coming to Seattle in the first place.
Darren: This might be the worst “debate” ever, because we’re on the same page a little too much here. Considering it and doing it are two very different things. I do think the Kraken should kick the tires to find out what it would take and if they can somehow lock in an extension for Marner beyond next season.
I also think such an extension would be very un-Ron Francis, in that it would be north of $11 million per year over six-plus years. Can Seattle’s GM stomach that? I’m not convinced.
Q: Is the timing right?
Darren: While I would love for the Kraken front office to investigate how such a deal for an elite winger would look, this timing piece is what makes me think the team should not take this swing right now.
If the roster were one big piece away from Stanley Cup contention, I would say push the chips in and go for it. But the reality is that Seattle is not one player (no matter how good that player is) away from pushing for a championship. The Kraken still need their prospect pool to mature more to be ready to help lead the team to success, rather than just being fringe call-up options like they were this past season.
John: This is where our agreements end, Darren. I personally think that even teams in the earlier stages of rebuilds should always consider acquiring an elite player. I remember the Rangers signing Artemi Panarin in the summer of 2019 after a 32-36-14 season. It seemed premature at the time, but it has proven to be a smart move.
Darren: Fair point, and the Rangers did successfully build up around him. It also helped that they had a No. 1 and a No. 2 overall pick and found another elite goaltender. But, I’m sticking to my guns. One day, I will call for a “chips in” kind of move, but I don’t think today is that day. Instead, they should use their cap space and spare assets to add a couple second-tier scorers this offseason and see what kind of impact that makes.
John: Ok, so it’s settled. We don’t agree on whether the Kraken should trade for Mitch Marner this offseason.
Before we close this out, one aspect we haven’t really addressed yet is the cost of extending Marner should the Kraken acquire him, though you did allude to it earlier. It’s reasonable to assume that his next contract will exceed $11 million per year and likely span a maximum term of eight years. Committing such a significant amount of money to one player will come with opportunity costs, especially considering that if some of the Kraken’s prospects develop into star players, they will also require substantial contracts. While this isn’t a major obstacle to completing the deal, it’s important to consider all the impacts of a potential trade.
Darren: Yeah, I kind of see that as the cost of doing business, though. If you want to bring in an elite player and inject a star into your lineup from another team, then you have to pay him and deal with the consequences later. But it’s another reason I don’t think Seattle should do this right now, because it goes against the approach of Francis.
While I’ve found myself taking the “don’t do it” stance in this debate, if the Kraken surprise me and take this swing, I won’t be mad about it. Instead, I would be thrilled to see Marner in deep sea blue.
—
What do you think, folks? If you had the opportunity, would you trade for Mitch Marner this summer?
Two Seattle Kraken prospects, Jagger Firkus and Tyson Jugnauth, are set to face one another in the WHL Championship Series. The winner of the seven-game series will go on to the Memorial Cup, a four-team tournament held annually to determine the champion of the entire CHL.
Seven current members of the Kraken organization have participated in the Memorial Cup tournament in years past, Philipp Grubauer, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Marian Studenic, Ryan Winterton, Logan Morrison, Cale Fleury, and Tucker Robertson. Grubauer won the tournament with the Windsor Spitfires in 2010. Now, one more member of the Kraken organization will join the small club of players to have competed in the Memorial Cup.
The Moose Jaw Warriors, after their Game 7 overtime win over the Saskatoon Blades, will head down to Portland to take on the Winterhawks in the 2023-24 WHL Championship Series. The Warriors carry Jagger Firkus, one of the Kraken’s top prospects who statistically just put up one of the best regular seasons in WHL history. Meanwhile, the Winterhawks have offensive defenseman Tyson Jugnauth, whose season has turned into an interesting journey.
Jagger Firkus (selected by Seattle No. 35 overall in 2022)
Firkus had just about the best season anyone could have asked for. Night after night throughout the season, it felt like he was continuing to outdo himself, and he increasingly impressed those in the Kraken’s camp who have been paying close attention to his development.
The 5-foot-11 forward from Irma, Alberta, led all CHL players in points during the regular season with 126, winning him the Bob Clarke Trophy, awarded to the WHL’s scoring leader. He moved into second for points all-time by a Warriors player, only trailing Theo Fleury for the franchise lead.
He and the Warriors have been on another level this season and playoffs, rocketing them into the franchise’s first finals appearance since 2005-06. Firkus is currently tied with his teammate Denton Mateychuk for the lead in overall points during the playoffs at 27.
The run Firkus has been on this playoffs has been filled with clutch plays in crucial moments that have led to wins for the Warriors. What could be argued as the biggest goal of his WHL career to this point was his late-game goal in Game 7 against Blades to help to force overtime, where the Warriors would wind up clinching the series and their matchup with the Winterhawks.
Jagger Firkus and the Moose Jaw Warriors will face Tyson Jugnauth and the Portland Winterhawks in the WHL Finals.#SeaKrakenpic.twitter.com/jM1zwUXPHV
Expectations for this series: Firkus will continue to take advantage of Portland’s D-corps and find himself in prime scoring areas at 5-on-5 throughout the series. From there, it’s all about capitalizing on those opportunities, and he has done that well with nine even-strength goals during the playoffs.
Tyson Jugnauth (selected by Seattle No. 100 overall in 2022)
It took a while for Jugnauth to settle in as a member of the Portland Winterhawks, but once he did, it allowed him to play more freely and opened up his offensive abilities.
Not even he could have imagined how his season would turn out, or that he’d be playing hockey this time of year at all, given how early the NCAA season normally concludes. He started the year at the University of Wisconsin and expected to be a notable contributor for the Badgers in their search for a BIG 10 championship. But early on, that was not happening.
To sum up Jugnauth’s stint as a Badger, he just wasn’t getting the ice time that he wanted. And with more of an NHL pedigree to his name at this point of his career, he needed a better opportunity to prove himself.
That’s when Winterhawks general manager and head coach Mike Johnston stepped in, as Portland traded for his CHL rights from the Kamloops Blazers. Jugnauth made the rare move of leaving the NCAA for the CHL midseason, and it was evident he immediately meshed with the offensive-oriented D-corps the Winterhawks deployed.
Despite missing two whole months of the WHL season to that point, he quickly caught up by finishing the season as the Winterhawks’ second-leading scorer among defensemen, with seven goals and 34 assists.
He’s taken his offensive game to another level during this playoff run for Portland, having four goals and 11 assists in 14 games thus far, which has him currently tied for second among all WHL defensemen in points.
It’s not just on the front end that the move to the WHL has helped Jugnauth find success, he’s shown his maturity with crucial blocks, such as his shot block on the play before the game-winning goal that sent the Winterhawks to the finals for the first time since 2014-15.
Expectations for this series: If Jugnauth can continue to produce offensively and clog up the Warriors’ scoring chances, expect for him to be one of the more active contributors to the Winterhawks successes.
Finals preview
The Warriors and Winterhawks played just once in the regular season on Feb. 28. Firkus had a goal to help Moose Jaw take a 4-3 win over Portland in the middle of what would wind up being a perfect 6-0-0-0 road trip against U.S. Division teams.
Portland’s most recent loss to Prince George in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals was its first regulation loss on home ice since its meeting with Moose Jaw, having won 11 straight home games beforehand.
Each side is loaded with NHL-bound talent, and 10 prospects will be lacing up during this series, including first-round selections Nate Danielson, Matthew Savoie, the aforementioned Mateychuk, and Brayden Yager.
Portland’s key to the series: Control the possession/shot quality battles
With Portland winning the majority of shot battles during this playoffs run, they’ve been able to keep to puck as far away from goalie Jan Spunar as they can, and control their own shot quality. And even with them controlling possession most nights, Spunar’s been up to the task with a 2.32 goals-against average in 14 games for the Winterhawks this playoffs. Keeping the pressure steady and neutralizing the loaded attack of the Warriors will be crucial for the Winterhawks to come out on top.
Moose Jaw’s key to the series: Keeping all four lines rolling
So far this playoffs, when the Warriors get off to a quick start and get all four forward lines involved, they’ve been one of the toughest teams to beat. All but one forward for the Warriors have at least four points in these playoffs, including six players with 12 or more. If they can get a stable yet more pressured attack going against a Portland defense who can struggle at times to minimize those efforts, the Warriors have a good chance at winning.
Game 1 is set for Friday night at 7 p.m. from Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Portland.
On June 28, 2024, Macklin Celebrini will (in all likelihood) hear his name called by the San Jose Sharks as the first overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. The Sharks will have the opportunity to make this pick from the stage at Sphere Las Vegas because it won the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday.
While Celebrini does not have quite the generational talent level of a player like Connor Bedard, he is a high-end, organization-changing player any team would love to have. Celebrini, who played for the Jr. Sharks in 2019-20 while his father worked for the Golden State Warriors, will soon take his talents back to Northern California.
Of local interest, the lottery determined that the Seattle Kraken will be picking No. 8 in the first round. Seattle entered the night with a 6.0 percent chance of landing the top overall section, a 6.2 percent chance of securing the second pick, and a .2 percent chance of ending up at No. 3. Seattle had a 54.4 percent chance of sticking at pick No. 8, while it had a 30.0 percent chance of moving down to pick No. 9 and a 3.2 percent chance of falling to No. 10 overall.
So, picking No. 8 was the most likely outcome for Seattle. We’ll get into the options that could be available to Seattle in that position momentarily.
As it turns out, the lottery did not move any team from its default draft position. San Jose had the best odds of landing the top pick to begin with. But the lottery guaranteed the Sharks will be able to add another building block in Celebrini. Unfortunately, Seattle will have to contend with that in the Pacific Division (along with whoever Anaheim picks at No. 3) for years to come.
Following today’s events, the top half of the 2024 NHL Draft first round will proceed as follows:
San Jose
Chicago
Anaheim
Columbus
Montreal
Utah
Ottawa
Seattle
Calgary
New Jersey
Buffalo
Philadelphia
Minnesota
San Jose (from Pittsburgh)
Detroit
St. Louis
How the Draft Lottery works
Generally speaking, the NHL Draft is organized so that the teams with worse records get better selections. This year, the Sharks had the league’s worst record, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, and so forth. The default order of each round has the Sharks picking first, followed by the Blackhawks, Ducks, etc.
That said, the order of selections at the top of the first round of the NHL Draft is determined by a lottery system. The sixteen teams that do not qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs all have the opportunity to move up from their default selection a maximum of 10 spots in the draft order.
The lottery consists of two drawings of ping pong balls. When a team’s number is drawn in the first drawing, the team moves up 10 spots as far as the first overall pick. For example, if the Ducks had been drawn, Anaheim would have moved to No. 1 overall. However, if Minnesota had been drawn, it would have moved up from No. 13 to No. 3.
The second lottery drawing is a similar process for a move up to and including the second overall pick. If, for example, Montreal were drawn, it would have moved up from its No. 5 default slot to No. 2. St. Louis, if selected, would have moved from No. 16 to No. 6.
The NHL held the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery Tuesday afternoon in a small 12-by-24-foot conference room at NHL Network Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey. The results were later broadcast on NHL Network and ESPN.
It all happens in this literal 12 x 24 room, then we stay in here until the Draft reveal broadcast ends pic.twitter.com/aoKEfghyR0
Worse teams not only have a higher default pick, but also higher odds of winning the lottery. Tankathon compiled the pre-draft odds of each team landing at any particular pick as follows:
As noted above, Seattle entered the night with the No. 8 pick, had a 12.4 percent chance of moving up, and a 33.2 percent chance of sliding back. As we now know, Seattle stuck at pick No. 8.
What could Seattle do with the No. 8 pick?
In February, we published our 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season edition). It was a composite ranking of 2024 NHL Draft-eligible prospects based on reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists. Since that time, some “final” draft lists have started to emerge, including Central Scouting’s final rankings. There is also a new TSN list based on Bob McKenzie’s survey of league sources.
Based on all of that information, here are a few names that stand out to us that may be available to Seattle at pick No. 8, should the team ultimately make that pick.
Tij Iginla
Player profile: Forward | 6’0″ | 185 lbs | left shot | Canada
Notes: Most points by a first-time draft-eligible NCAA defenseman ever; five points in seven 2024 World Junior Championship games; No. 11 on mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Buium is No. 28 in white in the video below
Zayne Parekh
Player profile: Defense | 6’0″ | 181 lbs | right shot | Canada
Notes: T-12th in Liiga all-time in points in a season by an under-18 player. Played at 2024 World Junior Championship, scoring two points. No. 9 on the mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Helenius is No. 91 in yellow in the video below
Berkly Catton
Player profile: Forward | 5’11” | 163 lbs | left shot | Canada
Notes: Leading scorer on the U.S. National Team Development Program in 2023-24; leading goal scorer for the Program all-time; No. 6 on the mid-season Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Video: Eiserman is No. 34 in white in the video below.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
While none of what Francis said was particularly surprising, we did take away that this was a difficult decision for the always cautious and guarded GM, and we aren’t convinced he wanted to make this move but may have felt he had no choice based on how the season played out. Francis indicated that he didn’t make his final decision until Sunday and met with Hakstol to inform him on Monday morning in Seattle, calling it “an extremely sad day.”
#SeaKraken Ron Francis said he didn’t come to this final decision to move on from Dave Hakstol until yesterday.
“It’s never an easy day, it’s never an easy decision,” Francis said. “We let a guy who’s a good coach and a really good person go, and it’s not easy. But, you know, looking at the organization and just looking at the season, I thought we were a little more inconsistent than we had been, a few too many losing streaks, and losing streaks of significant numbers. And so we just felt it was time to try a new voice here.”
Francis made it clear he didn’t think everything that happened this season was Hakstol’s fault. Instead, he commended the coach for his “thorough” approach and reiterated that there were externalities that were outside of Hakstol’s control.
“We had guys that had off seasons, we had guys that missed a lot of time, so there were a lot of challenges to the roster as well.”
Where do the Kraken go from here?
One thing this move does is crank up the heat on Francis to find success next season. Historically, a GM tends to get one coach firing before the attention turns in their direction. Francis has shown he is taking a slower “build from within” type of approach, which eventually worked in Carolina after he left there. It’s a good approach for the long-term health of the organization, but will Seattle’s ownership be patient enough to let some of Francis’ draft picks arrive and become impact players? Or will there be more pressure moving forward to contend?
So, while we think Hakstol was a fine first pick, the next hiring needs to be the perfect fit, and it needs to be somebody who can move the needle right away. Francis said the process to find that next bench boss starts immediately, but there’s no “definite timeline” for a hiring.
In our previous article about the firing, we threw out a few names we thought could be candidates to replace Hakstol, and we did ask Francis what attributes he thought were important, but he declined to fully comment on that.
“If I answer that question, it’s going to be tied to ‘this is what I didn’t think Dave was doing,’ so I’d rather not do that at this point.”
Fair enough. If we were to guess what the team will be looking for moving forward, it will be somebody who can be a players’ coach, one who fits into the dressing room and can have strong relationships with the players. The next coach needs to be able to hold players accountable while showing fairness in approach (meaning, if a player is playing, they get rewarded, and vice versa).
We also do not think the head coach is the only “change” this organization will need. The team announced this morning that assistant coach Paul McFarland will also not return. And Francis mentioned the roster on many occasions Monday, He said in clear terms, “We have to make some changes to the roster and try and get back to where we want to get to next season.”
How the roster changes look remain to be seen, but there’s no doubt Francis will try to uncover some scoring from elsewhere in the league this summer.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
