If there’s one position at which we should be able to predict NHL Seattle’s direction heading into the franchise’s 2021 Expansion Draft, it would be netminder. After all, Vegas’s impending acquisition of Marc-Andre Fleury, then 32 years old, in the lead-up to the Golden Knights’ inaugural season was perhaps the worst-kept secret in all of hockey.
Fleury was coming off a 2016-2017 season in which his Penguins had won the Stanley Cup, but he had lost his job to a man ten years his junior, and one who was making $5 million less per year in Matt Murray. Fleury’s illustrious career in Pittsburgh was quite obviously over, and there simply was no other outcome that could have transpired that offseason, other than him joining the NHL’s 31st team.
Marc-Andre Fleury’s career in Pittsburgh was obviously over prior to his selection by Vegas in the 2017 Expansion Draft. Photo credit Gene J. Puskar, AP.
Alas, at this point in time, things aren’t quite as crystal clear as to who will don the first beautiful set of custom-designed Bauer, CCM, or perhaps even Brian’s goalie gear in Seattle’s TBD colors, and lead the NHL’s 32nd team onto the New Arena at Seattle Center’s ice for puck drop in fall of 2021. In fact, with a year left to go before Seattle’s Expansion Draft, the only thing that makes the goaltender position any more predictable than, say, third-pairing left defense is the fact that the pool of options is simply smaller for backstops.
We can certainly whittle things down a bit by examining the contract situations of teams and goalies across the league. But even then, there’s just a lot of uncertainty, due to a number of outstanding scenarios that will alter the goaltending landscape a bit when the 2019-2020 season officially concludes. Nonetheless, let’s do some digging, and see if we can uncover who will be the first goalie for NHL Seattle.
For your perusal, here are all of the goaltending contract statuses, broken down by division (click each to expand):
OBVIOUS TARGETS
For the sake of whittling, it’s easiest to focus on which teams will likely have a logjam in net when 2021 rolls around.
Perhaps the best example of such a logjam is the New York Rangers. The Rangers are especially interesting, because when the 2019-2020 season concludes, they will have three NHL-quality goalies in Henrik Lundqvist, Igor Shesterkin, and Alexander Georgiev. Georgiev will be a restricted free agent after this season, and Shesterkin will become an RFA after next season. Lundqvist is currently 38 years old, so he obviously doesn’t fit the mold for landing in Seattle, but his contract runs through next season as well. The challenge for New York is how do they keep three NHL goalies through next season? Well, they don’t, so something will have to give there, and even if Lundqvist comes off the roster somehow, either via trade (he has a no movement clause) or retirement, that still leaves Shesterkin and Georgiev. New York cannot protect both, and both are good.Correction: Reader Jason Katinas accurately pointed out that Igor Shesterkin is actually exempt from the Expansion Draft, because like Elvis Merzlikins in Columbus, Shesterkin has only been a North American pro for one year. So, maybe New York isn’t quite as interesting of a scenario as I initially thought.
Pittsburgh has two great young goalies in the aforementioned Murray and Tristan Jarry, who burst onto the scene this season to essentially do to his counterpart what his counterpart did to Fleury in 2016-2017. Jarry had an impressive .921 save percentage and 2.43 GAA, and sometimes looked unbeatable en route to a 20-12-1 record. It would be a little ironic for Pittsburgh to give up a goalie in the Expansion Draft for the second time in a row, but with both Murray and Jarry becoming RFA’s after next season, one will have to either be traded or exposed. My guess is that Pittsburgh will find a way to avoid Fleury 2.0, but we shall see.
Vancouver and Washington are a little different from the others in this lot. Both have bona fide starters in Jacob Markstrom and Braden Holtby respectively, and solid up-and-coming back-ups in Thatcher Demko and Ilya Samsonov. Holtby’s name almost always comes up as the next goalie to experience Fleury’s Expansion Draft fate, and that makes sense. He’s 30 years old, has Samsonov waiting in the wings, and doesn’t have a contract
Braden Holtby’s name always seems to get linked to Seattle, but his contract status makes his availability unlikely. Photo credit NHL.com.
beyond this season. Markstrom—who played in his first All-Star Game this season —has the exact same scenario playing out in Vancouver, except his re-signing there has generally felt like less of a foregone conclusion than Holtby returning to Washington. Frankly, though, I think Holtby or Markstrom ending up in Seattle is unlikely. It just seems farfetched that any team would sign either of these guys to extensions after this season and not figure out a way to protect the asset. If they do both re-sign with their current teams, then look for Seattle to scoop up either Demko or Samsonov.
Also worth lumping in as a potential goalie target is Arizona. Looking at the contract statuses, it’s obvious that Darcy Kuemper will be protected, but Antti Raanta’s deal is up heading into the 2021 offseason, and young Adin Hill will still be in the mix there. Raanta has had a ton of injury issues in his career, but one could see either him or Hill (or both) being available, should Seattle wish to go in one of those directions.
Meanwhile, Columbus seems like a very obvious candidate to cede a goaltender to Seattle, because after signing both of its 26-year-old backstops to extensions this season, Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins are under contract through 2021-2022. However, there’s a wrinkle. Because Merzlikins just started playing pro hockey in North America
Matiss Kivlenieks played six games with the Columbus Blue Jackets and could be available. Photo credit Dan Hickling.
this season, he’s actually exempt from the Expansion Draft. Thus, the likeliest scenario here is that Korpisalo will be protected, and instead, Latvian youngster Matiss Kivlenieks would be exposed. Kivlenieks is still intriguing, as he was thrust into action with Columbus for six games this season with both Korpisalo and Merzlikins simultaneously on the shelf. Kivlenieks performed admirably, with a 1-1-2 record, and 2.95 GAA.
THE UFA CONUNDRUM
Aside from the teams that have multiple contracts to juggle, there are also several goaltenders scattered about the league who will see their contracts expire in the next year. This adds to the murkiness of the expansion pool, because where these goalies land with their next contracts will certainly impact whether or not they will be ripe for Seattle’s picking.
Some names that stick out are Anton Khudobin and Robin Lehner, both of whom will need contracts after this season, and Tuukka Rask, Petr Mrazek, David Rittich, Philipp Grubauer, and Jordan Binnington, who are all expected to be unrestricted free agents after next season. Obviously some of those guys will re-sign with their current teams prior to the end of their contracts, and being a free agent in 2021 doesn’t make them any more likely to land in Seattle than anywhere else. Still, these are players worth tracking over the course of the next two offseasons. By the way, on Lehner, Vegas is exempt from expansion, so if he goes back to the Golden Knights, he’s off the table.
FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
There are a couple more angles to consider. There are plenty of goalies out there with whom we aren’t currently super familiar that may be available in the Expansion Draft, and that may be worth a look come the conclusion of the 2020-2021 season. Maybe a stud AHL goalie like a Kaapo Kahkonen out of Minnesota is left exposed, and finally finds his way onto an NHL roster, but in Seattle. There’s also a chance that Seattle manages to snag a goalie or two when teams place players on waivers after their 2021 training camps. Vegas went this route, as Malcolm Subban backed up Fleury for most of that franchise’s first season, and Subban had been claimed off waivers from Boston after camp.
So, with all this in mind, we still can’t really predict with any accuracy who will be Seattle’s first goalie. But once the dust settles on this coming offseason, we should have a very good understanding of which direction the teams with netminding logjams are heading, and at that point, we may be able to whittle this pool down to just a few potential Marc-Andre Fleury’s.
Wait, I wonder if Seattle can get the actual Marc-Andre Fleury…
Earlier this week, a white friend that I grew up with in suburban Minneapolis started an email dialogue with me and a few other white friends with similar upbringings about the events that have transpired in our hometown. I wrote the below response, which I’ve adjusted a bit for context. Although it isn’t exactly what we normally discuss here at NHLtoSeattle.com, I hope that it will encourage you to have similar dialogues with those in your own respective communities.
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Although I’ve been away for the better part of fifteen years now, I still feel like I am a Minnesotan at heart. I still love Minnesota sports, and I still knowingly speak with a slight Minnesota accent. I also still brag about all the great things I remember from growing up in a place where you could spend every winter day skating for free in practically any suburban park, and every summer day floating in one of the state’s beautiful lakes.
Since moving from Minnesota, I’ve lived on both coasts. When I lived in New York, I felt like there was always something to keep you on edge. I was there through Hurricanes Irene and Sandy. I remember riding the subway the morning after news broke that a Brooklynite had been diagnosed with ebola, and feeling fearful for my life when the man next to me coughed. I also remember locking down the hotel I worked in – which was conveniently located across the street from the site of the worst terrorist attack in history – due to a suspicious package found just outside, as the world was on alert following the attack on the Bataclan Theatre in Paris. When my wife and I left New York, I felt a temporary sense of relief to get out of that bubble, but now living here in Seattle, we have the fear of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, none of which even have the courtesy to give you notice of their arrival the way that a simple little northeastern hurricane does.
And yet, looking back on my youth in Minnesota, I don’t recall many days of feeling genuinely fearful, save for the weeks that immediately followed 9/11, and that didn’t even happen anywhere near Minnesota. Even today, I imagine that if something bad happens wherever we happen to be living, we can just go back to good old MN, because nothing truly bad ever happens there.
But what happened to George Floyd was truly bad. What happened in the Twin Cities this past week was truly bad. I now believe that there have been truly bad things happening there and here and frankly everywhere in our country since its inception. I was just blind to it, surrounded almost exclusively by other privileged white kids like myself, who never had to deal with truly bad things.
Seeing my hometown burn from afar, while my family ignored the risks associated with a pandemic to huddle together in fear that looters may make their way out to the suburbs is not something I anticipated seeing in my lifetime. Meanwhile, chaos erupted here in Seattle on Saturday, when protests turned violent, innocent people were hurt, and hundreds of downtown businesses were destroyed, with the closest being about ten minutes on foot from where my wife and I live. Since then, protests have moved even closer, and although they are mostly peaceful, we are within earshot of the flash-bang grenades that SPD has deployed on a number of occasions. Knowing that proceedings remained peaceful on Wednesday is a huge relief and gives me hope that real change is happening in Seattle. It gives me hope that we can be an example for the rest of the nation.
I’ve cried a lot this week. I want it all to stop. I want everyone in the world to look at each other and say, “I respect you, and I’m happy to share this Earth with you,” and I want the constant feelings of uneasiness to go away.
But I think that uneasiness may be exactly the point for people like us. We are so incredibly lucky. There are things in the world that are scary, and those things that we fear are the things that scare everyone living in the same region, regardless of the color of their skin, their gender, or their sexuality. But if you were to change the way we look, then we would also have to layer on the fear that we could be stopped, arrested, beaten, or even suffocated just because we’re physically different and no longer have the same privileges that we all take for granted.
I look back at my youth and my college days, and I’m so disappointed that I participated in activities and used language that would be so hurtful to so many people that I now love. This is what happens when you surround yourself with people like yourself, though. You never understand those who are different than you, until you get to know them, and you truly listen when they let down their guard and try to express to you what it’s like to walk in their shoes.
I believe that the feeling of uneasiness this week has been a very small taste of the way that people of color feel every single day living in our society, and that devastates me. I hate feeling uneasy like this, but I believe in humanity, and I believe that this uneasiness will pass, and that change will finally come for those who so desperately need it.
When that happens, I will be glad to have felt the uneasiness.
Featured image taken by David Joles, photo journalist for the Star Tribune/Associated Press.
Recognizing all that’s happening in the world right now, the guys get a bit emotional on this week’s episode of Sound of Hockey. It’s been quite the week, as you know, and John, Andy, and Darren certainly do not want to avoid the topics at hand. Nonetheless, they hope that you get a bit of a mental break while listening to this episode, as there’s some fun to be had as well.
The guys interviewed Stu Barnes before things really escalated locally in Seattle, and it is a fantastic interview. Stu talks about his long and very successful NHL career, being a pro scout for NHL Seattle, and much more. You will definitely enjoy this interview.
Segments this week include Let’s Get Quizzical and Weekly One-Timers.
Recognizing all that’s happening in the world right now, the guys get a bit emotional on this week’s episode of Sound of Hockey. It’s been quite the week, as you know, and John, Andy, and Darren certainly did not want to avoid the topics at hand. Nonetheless, they hope that you get a bit of a mental break while listening to this episode, as there’s some fun to be had as well.
The guys interviewed Stu Barnes before things really escalated locally in Seattle, and it is a fantastic interview. Stu talks about his long and very successful NHL career, being a pro scout for NHL Seattle, and much more. You will definitely enjoy this interview.
Segments this week include Let’s Get Quizzical and Weekly One-Timers.
Sound of Hockey gets back to its roots this week, with a more straight-forward episode to appease the die-hard SOH listeners. Lots of banter about the NHL’s return to play plans, which gets the idea mill churning a bit for John, Andy, and Darren.
The guys also do a fun exercise in this episode of determining which NHL teams have the most nonsensical names.
Segments this week include Goalie Gear Corner, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
Sound of Hockey gets back to its roots this week, with a more straight-forward episode to appease the die-hard SOH listeners. Lots of banter about the NHL’s return to play plans, which gets the idea mill churning a bit for John, Andy, and Darren.
The guys also do a fun exercise in this episode of determining which NHL teams have the most nonsensical names.
Segments this week include Goalie Gear Corner, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman detailed the league’s Return To Play plan Tuesday that includes a 24-team playoff format which would allow the NHL to conduct a post season after pausing their regular season in March due to the COVID-19 disease.
His live streamed announcement came a couple of days after the NHLPA approved the plan over this past weekend.
“We are hopeful the Return To Play Plan will allow us to complete the season and award the Stanley Cup in a manner in which the health and safety of our players, on-ice officials, team staff and associated individuals involved are paramount,” Bettman said. “Accordingly, an essential component of the Plan is a rigorous, regular schedule of testing.”
In the plan, the regular season is considered finished and the top 24 teams based on their point percentage will participate in the post season. There will be an initial qualifying round made up of best-of-five series played between the bottom eight teams in each conference to determine who will make up the playoff brackets. The top four teams in each conference are automatically in the playoffs and will play a round robin tournament among themselves to determine their seeding.
The eight teams who win their qualifying series will advance into the first round of the playoffs.
Games will be played without fans and in two hub cities that have yet to be determined. One city will be in the west and one in the east and teams will be allowed to send a maximum of 50 team staff to the hubs.
In the Eastern Conference qualifying round, Pittsburgh will play Montreal, Carolina will play the New York Rangers, the New York Islanders will play Florida, and Toronto will play Columbus.
Out west it will be Edmonton playing Chicago, Nashville playing Arizona, Vancouver playing Minnesota, and Calgary facing Winnipeg.
Despite the announcement, there are still a number of questions to be answered.
Bettman said that they are not setting any start dates because the timing will still be determined by medical and civic officials as to when it is safe for teams to congregate. They are hoping that the clubs could get together for a training camp sometime in the first half of July.
“I think its conceivable we’re playing at the end of July or the beginning of August and will play into September,” Bettman said “If it has to slide it will slide.”
A late start will obviously impact the start of next season but Bettman said that the league is positive that the 2020-2021 season will be played in its entirety even if they have to start as late as January.
The first step to returning is what Bettman is calling ‘Phase 2’, which is allowing players to begin training in small groups at their team facilities, and could start in early June.
Players will be travelling from Europe and across the Canadian-U.S. border. Currently, the United States border is closed and Canada is requiring a 14-day self quarantine for anyone who is allowed to cross its border.
“We have been dealing with the governments in both the United States and Canada,” NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said Tuesday. “The acting Director of Homeland security, in the last three days, signed an order that made professional athletes essential personnel which allows them to travel in the U.S.
“The one issue that we continue to work actively on is the mandatory federal quarantine that is in place for all people who travel into Canada. We are having various discussions with various people in the Canadian government.”
Daly added that if that restriction can’t be lifted it will take Canadian cities out of the running to be host cities.
The hub cities in consideration are Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Edmonton, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, Toronto, and Vancouver.
While the qualifying rounds will be best-of-five series the league has yet to determine the length of the first and second-round playoff series. The Commissioner did indicate that the conference finals and Stanley Cup Final would be a best-of-seven.
The NHL’s Draft lottery will be held on June 26th and Bettman correctly described the process as “a bit complicated.”
Using three to six drawings over one or two phases, the lottery will determine the first 15 picks of the 2020 draft. Bettman wasn’t kidding about it being complicated.
The seven teams that failed to make the post season will be eligible for the lottery as will the eight teams that lose in the opening qualifying round. The first drawing in phase one will include eight placeholder spots since the losing teams in the qualifying round won’t be known.
Phase one will determine the first three picks in the draft with a drawing for each slot. If one of the place holder spots wins one of the top three slots a second phase will be required, consisting of all eight eliminated teams to determine which team wins that spot.
Those teams have a less than six-percent odds of winning the top spot so the chances of a team in the qualifying round winning the top pick are slim. But, they do have a shot.
Detroit has the best odds at getting the top spot with an 18.5% chance while the Ottawa Senators are second with 13.5%.
Testing players and team personnel will obviously be a major focus on any return to play scenario. Bettman felt that they would be able to provide an adequate number tests for each team that would not impact the public’s ability to be tested. Daly added that one positive test shouldn’t require the league to stop but also said that the league couldn’t have an outbreak.
This situation is far from a done deal.
As the COVID-19 situation is constantly changing, the league, and the NHLPA will continue to monitor and update their plan as time moves on.
Despite that unknown, we do appear to be one step closer to seeing NHL hockey again.
A few weeks ago, we sent out a request to complete a fan survey. The response was humbling and overwhelming. Thank you to all who took the time to fill out the survey. Here are the results.
Demographics
No major surprises in the basic demographic info other than it is amazing to see the reach of this community. There were people from 30 different states and 9 different countries that responded to the survey.
Current Hockey Fandom
Even though it is small, I love that 10% of respondents are “New to hockey”. Those are the folks that are starting to engage in hockey despite no actual NHL team yet. We should expect that number to grow as we get closer to puck drop in 2021. I also received some feedback that there should have been an option between die-hard and casual, as well as fandom regarding the WHL. That is noted.
A little surprised that despite no NHL hockey in the immediate area, roughly 80% of folks have seen an NHL game live.
It would be interesting to see where everyone is seeing games. Personally, I take a hockey vacation once or twice a year to attend games in different NHL arenas.
We received a lot of comments on affordability and pricing. I also noticed a lot of comments about people coming from outside the Puget Sound. Here are a few of the comments:
“I live in Alaska but will definitely attend 5 games maybe more.”
“I live in Boise Idaho so maybe 2-4 games.”
“Market the team better in Eastern Wa! Involve youth hockey over here too!”
“Hopefully 1 game if we can travel back to the states from Australia”
Over the years, a few WHL fans were concerned about how the NHL coming to town could impact the WHL teams in the area. Based on respondents, it appears to increase interest in the WHL.
It would appear hockey fans have the least amount of crossover with NBA and MLS fans. While the NFL ranks second and the MLB third among respondents across the professional sports leagues. Another way to look at this is that entertainment dollars and viewing could shift from the Mariners and Seahawks to the NHL. It is unlikely that either the Mariners or the Seahawks feel any material dollars shift, but I’ve had several folks over the years mention that they would dump their Seahawks season tickets to get NHL season tickets.
The Team
People seem to like the balance approach. Here are some of the comments:
“Start with a name.”
“balanced. Focus on the future with fun, young players but surround that core with an experienced, leadership driven veteran group.”
“Progressive improvements and hopefully playoff berth in first 4-5 seasons.”
“Don’t feel pressure to match what Vegas did, slow and steady.”
“Build a Dynasty like the Red Wings or Montreal.”
Keep in mind that Gallant, Babcock, Laviolette, and Boudreau were the only pre-determined selections which is why they have so many votes. “Not Mike Babcock” got a number of write-in votes, so maybe we should take 1% away from Mike Babcock.
Here are some of the other comments:
“Consider hiring a successful coach from the AHL.”
“I don’t know enough about all the possible coaches. I’m sure Ron Francis will make a good decision.”
“I don’t know any hockey coaches. I’m brand new to the sport.”
Good to see our fans with some reasonable expectations after Vegas far exceeded expectations in their first year.
This was a fun exercise for us to go through and I enjoyed reading though the comments that people provided. Thanks for participating.
Very fun episode this week, as Sound of Hockey overuses the phrase “quote unquote,” and welcomes a “special guest” to the podcast.
The “special guest” gives his “story” about helping to bring “NHL to Seattle.” And that’s all we can say, because we don’t want to spoil who the surprise guest is.
This week, you will also get a WHL, AHL, and NHL update, a breakdown of the NHLtoSeattle survey that went out last week, and plenty of good chuckles.
Segments this week include Weekly One-Timers, Goalie Gear Corner, and Tweets of the Week.
With the growth of the salary cap potentially stalled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there’s an argument to be made that the NHL Seattle expansion team is in an even better position to prey on other franchises desperate to shed salary or protect star players, like Vegas did in 2017.
During the general manager meetings in early March 2020, NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly projected a salary cap between $84 million to $88.2 million.
That was before things went haywire.
About a week later, the 2019-2020 NHL season was put on pause. The pandemic still remains and there’s no end to the “pause” in sight.
The upper limit of the NHL salary cap is determined based on the revenue accumulated by the NHL in previous seasons, according to CapFriendly.com. The NHL salary cap is a “hard cap” meaning there’s no leeway for teams to go over and pay a “luxury tax,” like the MLB and the NBA.
If the regular season — or in a doomsday scenario, the entire Stanley Cup playoff, is cancelled, the lost revenue from ticket sales, TV revenue, etc. would significantly hinder the league’s seasonal revenue, and in turn, future season’s salary caps.
According to The Athletic’s James Mirtle, the salary cap is unlikely to spike up as expected and in an absolute best-case scenario, it would rise by about $1 million, up to $82.5 million.
Unless an NHL’s front offices also doubled as a public health experts, it’s unlikely NHL teams baked in a global pandemic into their team’s salary cap projections.
This could potentially affect NHL Seattle in the lead up to the 2021 Expansion Draft in four different ways:
There are myriad teams in salary cap hell and teams do not protect talented players with hefty salaries in an effort to free up cap space.
Teams make “protective deals” with Seattle, ensuring Seattle selects a certain player in exchange for something else back. Vegas took advantage of several teams in the lead up to the 2017 Expansion draft with similar deals. For example: Anaheim would send promising defenseman Shea Theodore to Vegas in exchange for the Golden Knights selecting Clayton Stoner (and his $3.5 salary) in the Expansion Draft. Similarly, Columbus would trade William Karlsson to Vegas if they agreed to take David Clarkson (and his $5.25 cap hit). Neither Stoner or Clarkson would ever play in the NHL again and Karlsson and Theodore remain franchise cornerstones for the Golden Knights.
The other 31 teams take this upcoming offseason to shed salary and save cap space for the 2021-2022 offseason and the Seattle Expansion Draft.
The league steps in to provide some sort of relief for teams given the circumstances. There could be something similar to the amnesty clause that was prevalent in the National Basketball Association from about 2010 to 2016, in which one player could be released and their contract will be paid in full but won’t count against the salary cap. If imposed by the NHL, it would effectively be a “get out of jail free card” for any team.
Graphic by John Barr
The most auspicious scenarios for NHL Seattle are No. 1 and No. 2. It ensures NHL Seattle will either land an established and productive veteran — even if his contract is loaded with AAV (average annual value) and term — or acquire draft capital and quality prospects.
It’s unclear whether NHL general managers will be wary of making protective deals after Vegas fleeced several teams in the process.
But franchises were already eager to cut salary in 2017, even with the upper limit of the salary cap rising from year-to-year.
Now that teams almost certainly won’t see the upper limit of the salary cap increase by 2021, teams may have no other choice but to swing deals with Seattle.
That is, of course, the real life scenario isn’t akin to No. 4 above, where the league provides relief for teams due to the unforeseen and unfortunate circumstances.
When the season is finished or canceled, the ensuing offseason will shine light on just how advantageous this may be for Seattle. The NHL could provide relief to teams to mitigate how cap-strapped teams may be coming into 2021, but regardless, NHL Seattle will enter the 2021 offseason with the biggest weapon of any team: a blank slate of cap space.
