With all the downtime in the offseason, I have decided to dig into NHL play-by-play data. One question that has been bouncing around my head is how the “long change” affects scoring rates. In the NHL, the long change is in effect during the second period, when teams are defending the goal on the far side of the ice, and players have to skate farther to get to the bench from the defensive zone.
It is only a difference of about 50 feet compared to changing lines in the first and third periods, but this makes it harder for teams to swap out lines on the fly. Players can get stuck on the ice, and shifts can turn into marathons, tiring out defenders. I’ve been curious if it changes scoring rates, though, so let’s take a closer look at how teams score during the first, second, and third periods to see if the long change has an impact.
Data is from all the regular-season games from the 2023-24 NHL season. In total, 8268 goals were scored and analyzed. Let’s dive in!!
Goals scored
Breaking the goals down by period shows that the most goals are scored in the third period. Since the long change is only in effect during the second period, you would think that in the first and third periods, the scoring would be similar.
The third period has its own special circumstance, though, as this is the time for teams that are losing to make a last-ditch effort to try and get the equalizer. This causes a surge in empty-net goals, which throws the numbers off a bit. There were 446 empty-net goals in the third period, which actually means 2349 goals were scored in the third period with a goaltender in the net. Surprisingly, 2349 goals is the exact number of goals scored in the first period as well. For this exercise, empty net, overtime, and shootout goals will be excluded.
This shows there is quite a boost in scoring during the second period, to the tune of a 17.2 percent increase or 403 goals. So this answers the base question, scoring rates are increased by a pretty significant percentage when the long change is in effect.
Additional data
Let’s take a look at the data one click down and consider how the goals are scored and if there are any trends. With periods one and three both having 2349 goals scored.
Playing situation
Depending on the point of the game, teams can be at even strength, on a manpower advantage, have their goalie pulled, or be shorthanded.
The main contributor for the second-period increase in goal scoring (307) is even strength, which is where the majority of all NHL goals are scored. Power-play goals were also up by 149 in the second period, which is the biggest category percentage jump at 30.9 percent. Due to more opportunities for the goaltender to be pulled in the third period, this causes a decrease in other goals. “Other” goals includes shorthanded, penalty shot, and goaltender-pulled goals.
Overall, you see 307 additional goals at even strength, 149 additional goals on the power play, and a decrease of 53 goals in other situations. That works out to an increase of 403 goals during the long change period.
Penalties
With power-play goals seeing the biggest category jump, let’s look at the number of penalties called.
Period two saw a 21.4 percent jump in the number of penalties called. What is interesting here is that is less than the percentage jump in the number of power-play goals scored (30.9 percent). This indicates there is a higher conversion rate of power plays during the second period.
Shot data
With more goals being scored, let’s look at the type of shots that are leading to goals. The shot data has been sorted into six buckets, consisting of wrist shot, snap shot, tip-in, slap shot, backhand, and other.
The wrist shot is by far the preferred shot selection of the NHL and accounts for 47.5 percent of all NHL goals scored. The wrist shot also saw a bump of 21.8 percent in the second period compared with the first and third periods, good for 240 goals. The tip-in goal was 22.2 percent more frequent in the second period, accounting for 70 goals.
Next, looking at the number of shot attempts, I expected to see a similar trend of an increase to go along with the added goals.
This is not the case, though, and shot attempts remain pretty flat between all periods. There is a small uptick of 3.7 percent, but that is a far cry from a 17.2 percent increase in goals. Perhaps this somewhat points to the increase in goals coming in situations where the goaltender has a vested interest in holding onto the puck to stop play so his teammates can get a line change.
Assist data
When a player scores a goal, it can be unassisted, have one assist, or two assists.
Unassisted goals are a singular effort to get the goal.
One-assist goals require one pass before the goal. Situations like 2-on-1’s, one-timers, and rebound goals result in one-assist goals.
Two-assist goals require two passes before the goal. This is the most common scoring scenario and accounts for 77.8 percent of all NHL goals. A team controlling the puck in the offensive zone can result in two-assist goals.
With the long change, defensive teams can get stuck out on the ice, if the offensive team is controlling the puck in its zone. The assist data supports this, as the number of two-assist goals increased by 332 goals and 18.2 percent. One-assist goals increased by 16.6 percent and unassisted goals by 4.4 percent. This indicates teams are getting setup in the zone and connecting on more passes leading to an increase in two-assist goals.
Kraken data
Unfortunately, the Seattle Kraken were not good at scoring second-period goals. They are one of only two teams that does not realize this boost in offense. The other team is the Edmonton Oilers, but since they were fourth in the league in scoring overall, this fault gets swept under the rug. All 30 other teams score more goals in the second period than they do in the first period.
Team
Period 1 Goals
Period 2 Goals
Period 3 Goals
Seattle Kraken
72
65
74 (65 wo/ empty net goals)
The Seattle Kraken were the fourth-worst team in the NHL in goals scored with 214 goals on the season. Most teams have figured out how to capitalize on the long change and trap defending teams in their zone. As goal scoring was the Kraken’s main issue, improving on the long-change scoring could be a target for improvement in the upcoming season.
Looking back to the 2022-23 season, the Kraken had success scording during the second period, improving their offensive production by 24.4 percent in that period, to 107 goals.
Team 2022-23
Period 1 Goals
Period 2 Goals
Period 3 Goals
Seattle Kraken
86
107
87 (72 wo/ empty net goals)
Wrap up
I had alway heard the long change was difficult on defending teams, but had yet to see any numbers to back it up. There is definitely a surge in scoring during the second period. First-year Kraken coach Dan Bylsma has some work cut out to maximize on the scoring opportunities on the long change.
One note, this data was looking at regulation data, but note that overtime follows the same pattern. For first overtime in the playoffs, the teams have to deal with the long change in addition to already playing three periods of hockey.
If you made it through this article, thank you for reading; you might just like numbers as much as I do. If you have any thoughts, suggestions, or other takes, feel free to make a comment below. You can follow me on the X at @blaizg.
It’s another super fun episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, as the guys welcome Chris Smith of Icethetics fame. Coincidentally, Chris is ALSO the Creative Director at King 5, the new TV home for the Seattle Kraken.
Tons of jersey and Kraken broadcast talk in this episode, including a draft of the guys’ favorite jerseys of all time.
Segments include Weekly One-Timers and Tweets of the Week.
All NHL teams aspire to accumulate talent throughout their lineup. While this can be accomplished through trades or free agency, the most cost-efficient way to acquire talent is through the NHL Draft. Drafted players are cost controlled throughout their entry-level contracts and require only draft picks to get them into the organization.
The Seattle Kraken have been wisely accumulating draft assets, selecting 36 players over the last four NHL Drafts. Early returns suggest that first-round picks like Matty Beniers and Shane Wright will be key contributors. Beniers already has 167 games under his belt, and we can expect Wright to be a full-time NHLer next season.
The Kraken have also seen recent standout performances from a pair of second-round picks. Both David Goyette and Jagger Firkus led the OHL and WHL respectively in scoring last season. Given these developments, how should we evaluate their progress? Statistically, are they tracking as home run draft picks and future stars? Or should we remain more reserved in our outlook?
Performance relative to age
Jagger Firkus (Photo/Brian Liesse)
One useful lens for analyzing progress is performance relative to age. Even within the same draft class, there can be a wide disparity in age. For the 2024 draft, top-ranked prospect Cole Eiserman (drafted No. 20 overall by the New York Islanders) is about 10 months (304 days) younger than Artyom Levshunov (drafted No. 2 overall by the Chicago Blackhawks). At this age, 10 months is a huge runway in developmental timeline. This effect is compounded in junior leagues like the OHL and WHL where players as young as 16 and as old as 20 are playing side-by-side against each other every night.
Intuitively, we should expect a 20-year-old to be far more physically developed than the average 18-year-old (the average age of each team was 18.7 in both the OHL and WHL last year). Without the context of age, we may be prone to draw faulty conclusions about a player’s long-term potential. So how can we contextualize the seasons that Goyette and Firkus just had?
In order to draw some rudimentary conclusions, we looked at the top 15 scoring seasons for both OHL and WHL players from 2014 to 2024. The jury is still out on the long-term ceiling of some of these players, but there is enough data to make some inferences. Within the OHL, the list includes current NHL stars like Connor McDavid, Mitch Marner, and Jason Robertson, solid top-six players like Dylan Strome, and bottom-six forwards like Kevin Labanc. We also see players like Justin Brazeau and Aaron Luchuk who, to-date, have been unable to carve out NHL careers.
The common thread here is that standout performances in your 17- or 18-year-old season are often predictive of high-ceiling NHL careers. Standout performances from 19- or 20-year-olds should be taken with a bigger grain of salt. Included in this latter group are Christian Dvorak and Rory Kerins. While the former is a useful albeit replaceable bottom-six forward, the latter may or may not crack the NHL at all.
The WHL paints a similar picture. Two thirds of the top scoring seasons from the last 10 years are owned by 19 and 20-year-old players, many of which have struggled to hold NHL jobs. Kraken fan favorite Oliver Bjorkstrand has found success as a top-six forward while Sam Steel appears to have settled into a bottom-six role.
What is also notable is what the data doesn’t show. Superstar talents do not tend to linger in Major Junior for long. Connor Bedard just won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s best rookie. By the time he was 20, Connor McDavid had played nearly 200 NHL games and was scoring over 100 points per season. Post-draft, Mitch Marner spent another year with the London Knights before debuting in the NHL with a 61-point season.
With this in mind, we should be wary of projecting Firkus and Goyette as top-of-the-lineup stars. They both had excellent seasons, but their statistical profiles are more in line with solid middle-six forwards. While on the surface this may seem disappointing, this isn’t bad news. It is important to remember that even players selected early in the draft often do not become full-time NHLers.
Looking at five years of draft data from 2010-2014 and using the 100 games played mark as a threshold, we find that 82 percent of first-round picks became NHLers, but that number drops off to only 46 percent in the second round. Even then, reaching the 100 games played threshold is hardly indicative of being a true difference maker on a contending team. Solid middle-six forwards would be fantastic outcomes for Firkus and Goyette, and contending teams need this type of talent in the middle of their lineup to win.
Berkly Catton (Photo/Spokane Chiefs)
While our analysis leads us to some muted optimism for Firkus and Goyette, we should end on a more positive note. The Kraken’s most recent first-round pick, Berkly Catton, just wrapped up a very special season relative to his historical 17-year-old peers, putting him in rare company. Hockey analyst Cam Robinson summed it up best.
Every CHL draft-eligible skater to produce 50+ goals and 115+ points in the 21st Century:
• Sidney Crosby • Patrick Kane • Connor Bedard • Berkly Catton
Last season, the Kraken offense was ranked fourth from the bottom of the NHL. In drafting Catton, a dynamic rush scoring forward, they may have selected a player uniquely suited to address this gap.
You’ve seen them at development camp. Now it’s time to figure out where the Kraken prospects will play this upcoming season.
With a few high-profile prospects expected to make the leap from the American Hockey League to the NHL, and several other players set to “graduate” to the AHL from junior hockey, there should be plenty of upward movement in Seattle’s system this year.
Graduating to NHL
Ryker Evans
Evans, 22, has little left to prove in the AHL. After flirting with being an NHL regular for parts of last season, we expect Evans to fill Brian Dumoulin’s spot on the roster in 2024-25 after the veteran left-shot blueliner was traded to Anaheim on July 2.
Shane Wright
After a successful campaign in Coachella Valley as a 20-year-old, the former fourth overall pick is poised to make the jump to Seattle’s lineup next season.
Shane Wright (Photo/Brian Liesse)
In the mix for NHL
Ryan Winterton
Carson Rehkopf
Logan Morrison
Even with the Kraken signing Chandler Stephenson, there’s still room for a player to break into a fourth-line role with Seattle in 2024-25. Another spot could even open up if Brandon Tanev is traded to free up cap space this season, something we could still foresee happening being that he is on the last year of a contract that carries a $3.5 million cap hit.
Winterton, 20, and Morrison, 22, are coming off productive first seasons with Coachella Valley. Winterton, who tallied 35 points in 58 games for the Firebirds, is a good potential fit for a checking line role with his play style and looked good in his end-of-season stint with the Kraken.
Carson Rehkopf is entering his 19-year-old season and isn’t eligible to play in the AHL due to the NHL-CHL transfer agreement. He will likely be sent back to Kitchener in the Ontario Hockey League for one last season of junior hockey. However, Rehkopf is one of Seattle’s best prospects and, while unlikely, he could fight for a roster spot in 2024-25 with a good training camp.
Logan Morrison (Photo/Brian Liesse)
NHL long shots, likely headed to AHL
Ville Ottavainen
Ottavainen will almost certainly begin the season in the AHL, but he could be in the mix for the first call-up if an injury arises on the Kraken blue line. The 21-year-old rearguard’s development will be better served playing every day in the AHL than as a seventh defenseman for the Kraken, but he’s huge at 6-foot-5, 216 pounds, and he is well regarded in the organization. Ottavainen could have an NHL future.
NHL long shots, likely headed to junior
Berkly Catton
In a similar vein to Rehkopf, Catton, the Kraken’s first-round pick in 2024, has a very slim chance to make the NHL roster. More realistically, he’ll be immediately sent back to junior or, if he impresses in training camp, he’ll play the 10-game trail allotted to prospects while still retaining the option of having their contracts “slide.”
Berkly Catton (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Graduating to AHL
Jagger Firkus
Ty Nelson
David Goyette
Jani Nyman
Niklas Kokko
Lleyton Roed
Firkus, Nelson, and Goyette are members of Seattle’s exciting 2022 draft class who are finally eligible to play in Coachella Valley after successful junior careers.
Nyman and goaltender Kokko are also members of said draft class and are expected to make the full-time jump to North America from their native Finland. Nyman had 43 points in 48 games for Ilves in Liiga, Finland’s top league. Kokko played for two teams in Liiga this past season and experienced his best success with Pelicans, posting a .926 save percentage and a 1.49 goals-against average and backstopping that team to the final.
Roed, a college free-agent signing, should be one to watch on Coachella Valley next season. The 21-year-old forward is coming off a 38-point season (30 games) for Bemidji State and can absolutely fly. He’s a fun player to watch.
Niklas Kokko (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Status up in the air
Andrei Loshko
Tyson Jugnauth
Both Loshko and Jugnauth are entering their 20-year-old seasons, meaning they are eligible to play in the AHL, but are unsigned. The Kraken could sign either of them and place them on the AHL roster, but that decision is two-fold: the Kraken first must decide whether it’s wise to add them to their prospect pool, then if there’s enough playing time available to put them on the AHL roster.
Loshko, a fourth-round selection in 2023, was traded to Rouyn-Noranda of the QMJHL before last season and posted 67 points (28 goals) in 64 games.
Not getting the role he expected with the Wisconsin Badgers, Jugnauth, a fourth-round pick in 2022, moved to the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks, where he was a point-per-game player (41 points in 41 games).
Tyson Jugnauth (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Staying/heading overseas
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard
Zeb Forsfjall
Kim Saarinen
Peetro Seppala
Visa Vedenpaa
Semyon Vyazovoy
Fisker-Mølgaard likely will play a minimum of one more season overseas before heading stateside. The Danish forward is set to return to HV71 in the SHL, Sweden’s top league, where he helped that club stave off relegation last season.
After playing the last two seasons for Coachella Valley, Seppala was signed by Orebro HK in the SHL this offseason. He remains in the Kraken system.
All of the listed CHL players are too young for the AHL and will head back to juniors this next season.
We might not see the NCAA players for a while. The Kraken hold their rights until they run out of eligibility in college hockey. Janicke, an incoming senior at Notre Dame, is the closest to graduation of the bunch.
For an offseason episode during a period of almost zero Seattle Kraken news, this one may go down in the books as one of the all-time greats.
Kraken organist Benny Drawbars joins John, Curtis, and Darren in BarrDown Studios, and he comes well equipped with musical instruments that get put to good use.
The guys also do a little Kraken talk, interview Benny about all things organ playing, and hit segments like Weekly One-Timers, Goalie Gear Corner, and Tweets of the Week.
The 2024 NHL Draft is in the books. Today, we’ll dive deep on all eight Seattle Kraken draft picks with information from the Sound Of Hockey Big Board, three viewings at 2024 Kraken Development Camp, and all other sources of information we can muster. What kinds of players did the Kraken get? And what did Seattle tell us about the 2024 Draft with its picks? Let’s get to it.
Notably, the group includes only two defensemen. Ryker Evans has already amassed significant NHL ice time and projects to be a Kraken regular for the 2024-25 season. This will leave only defenseman Ville Ottavainen among the tier of projected future NHL contributors not yet playing in the NHL. There are intriguing prospects further away, including Caden Price and Lukas Dragicevic. And fan-favorite Ty Nelson will look to establish himself as a professional at the AHL level this year.
Overall, though, the team’s forward group has significantly more impact potential than its blueliners. This is mostly due to asset allocation. The team has spent only four picks in the top-three rounds of a draft on defensemen, against 10 picks on forwards. The team has also signed four undrafted free agents: three forwards and one goaltender. For these reasons, we suspected the Kraken would be more willing to invest on the blue line in the 2024 NHL Draft.
We did not focus as much on the team’s center depth, but Kraken general manager Ron Francis noted after Day 1 of the draft that Carson Rehkopf and David Goyette had moved to the wing full-time during the 2023-24 season. Assuming that position change holds into the future, the top prospect group above includes just three centers. Once factoring in Shane Wright’s likely graduation to the NHL, center depth was materializing as an important and under-discussed need as well.
Carson Rehkopf
The Kraken 2024 NHL Draft class
The Kraken began the 2024 NHL Draft with nine picks but traded two late-rounders (Nos. 169 and 201 overall) to Florida for one fifth-round selection (No. 141). The Kraken had previously traded their assigned fifth-round pick to Colorado for forward Tomas Tatar. The draft-day pick trade was only the second ever made by the Seattle Kraken or a team managed by Ron Francis.
Here are the eight draft picks Seattle came away with:
The team drafted five forwards, three or four of which project to play center long term, addressing a subtle organizational need. On the other hand, the team drafted just two defensemen, with the first coming in the third round. The team carried on its practice of drafting one goalie each year.
Experts give Seattle Kraken draft solid marks
Draft analysts graded Seattle’s draft positively, though typically not among the very best classes. Several questioned the team’s decision to bypass a blue chip defenseman at the top of the draft. Friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast Chris Peters captured the popular sentiment well, giving the Kraken a B+ grade, but with the following note:
What I do find a little concerning in the earlier days of the Kraken’s drafting, however, is the lack of high-end defensemen in their system. I don’t blame them for going for their best player available as opposed to one of the higher end defensemen when they drafted Catton, but there is going to have to come a time at some point where the team [prioritizes] defensemen in their drafting.
Mitchell Brown & David St-Louis, Elite Prospects: A
Kraken get solid value using a mixed draft strategy
In the end, the Kraken came away with six top-100 players on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board (tied for most in the draft) and five players in my top-100 data ranking (second-most in the draft). It was a good haul by those measures, but I’ll admit to feeling a bit of whiplash following the team’s draft strategy live, not to mention some disappointment at the continued lack of investment on defense.
Before the draft, I dug into data on the draft-eligible prospects, and I found a group of five statistical standouts at the top of the class that included four defensemen. After that I saw an average-or-worse draft class from the 40s onward. I believe the Kraken likely agreed with the latter point, but clearly held a different view of the draft’s top prospects.
After Macklin Celebrini–who was the consensus No. 1 overall prospect among scouts and data analysts alike–I saw blueliners Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh, Artyom Levschunov, and Sam Dickinson as unique offensive defensemen. Buium’s 50 points in 42 NCAA games were the most ever by a first-time eligible NCAA defenseman. Parekh’s 96 points in 66 junior games was the most by a CHL defenseman in more than 30 years. Levschunov’s 35 points in 38 games were the most ever by a first-time eligible NCAA defenseman standing 6-foot-2 or taller. And Dickinson’s 70 points in 68 games were the second-most by an OHL defenseman standing 6-foot-3 or taller in the last 30 years.
Seeing an opportunity where supply met a need, I thought the Kraken would be thrilled to select any of these prospects if they were still available at pick No. 8. As it turns out, Buium, Parekh, and Dickinson were all available when the Kraken were on the clock. The team went a different direction anyway.
From a raw point production perspective, Berkly Catton out-produced all of the defensemen I named. In fact, he is one of only four first-time eligible CHL players this century to score 50+ goals and total 115+ points. The others are two soon-to-be Hall of Famers and the reigning Calder Trophy winner: Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, and Connor Bedard.
Looking at scoring data only, I had Catton as the sixth-ranked first-time eligible skater in the 2024 NHL Draft, ahead of each of the defensemen except Buium. Even so, I ranked Catton slightly lower than the four defensemen listed above in my final data ranking, which accounts for size (Catton is 5-foot-10), league value (Catton’s WHL is weaker than the OHL and NCAA), and relative positional value.
I suspect Seattle decided to go with Catton for one of two reasons. First, the team may have viewed offense, from a player who could be an NHL center, as the greatest organizational need. Second, the team’s scouts may not have been sold on the high-scoring blueliners, each of whom came with his own set of questions.
Also, we cannot entirely rule out the value the organization may see in drafting locally. Indeed, after Catton, the team stayed local drafting another WHL center in Julius Miettinen. Miettinen was well-regarded by most scouts, checking in at No. 41 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. My data score ranking had him as a second-rounder too (No. 61 overall). So, the selection didn’t stray far from consensus value.
After that, though, the Kraken draft pivoted hard toward idiosyncratic scouting favorites. I suspect this is because the remainder of Seattle’s top targets that combined in-house scouting support and strong data profiles went off the board before Seattle’s next pick in a relatively shallow talent pool.
Nathan Villeneuve, Seattle’s pick at No. 63, is a checking center with the potential to push his scoring higher with more ice time. He was No. 91 on the Big Board and No. 71 in my data ranking. Likewise, the team’s pick at No. 73, defenseman Alexis Bernier, was drafted higher than those in the public community or my data analysis suggested (No. 122 on the Big Board; No. 341 in my data ranking). Ollie Josephson, the team’s fourth-round pick, was liked by scouts both in Seattle and elsewhere (No. 77 on the Big Board), but, again, his data lagged (No. 226 in my data ranking).
Toward the end of the draft, the team turned back towards strong data players who had dropped. The Kraken selected forward Clarke Caswell (No. 53 in my data rank) and defenseman Jakub Fibigr (No. 37 on the data) with its final two picks.
Jakub Fibigr
Kraken draft picks by the numbers: young, small, and junior-heavy
The Kraken selected the youngest draft class in the league—with an average age of 18 years, two months as of the 2024 NHL Draft. The class is more than a full year younger on average than the league’s oldest class, drafted by the Vegas Golden Knights. (Coincidentally, the Kraken’s three youngest 2024 NHL Draft picks, Kim Saarinen, Josephson, and Fibigr, were all born on the same day—July 22, 2006.)
Seattle was also one of eight teams not to select any re-draft candidates. Earlier in the organization’s development, Seattle selected several overage prospects because there were no prospects from earlier drafts blocking their path. This year’s approach is indicative of a pipeline with a steady flow of prospects ahead of the 2024 class.
Beyond drafting young, the Kraken also selected a class of relatively small players. Seattle took the second-shortest skater class in the league, with their seven drafted skaters averaging just a shade over 6-foot-0. (The team also selected goaltender Kim Saarinen, who stands 6-foot-4.) Their skater class is also the fifth-lightest, averaging under 182 pounds. By contrast, the Boston Bruins class of skaters stood almost 6-foot-4 and 204 pounds on average, both the top marks in the league.
Finally, no team committed more draft resources to Canadian junior hockey players than the Kraken. Seattle selected seven players from the CHL, tied with the Calgary Flames for most in the league. Seattle’s four draft picks from the WHL were the most of any team.
Scouting notes: “Berkly Catton is one of the most fun players to watch in this draft. Give him time and space, and he’ll make you pay; try to take it away, and he’ll cut through your formation anyway like a hot knife through butter.
“It’s on the rush where he’s most effective. A series of crossovers allows him to build speed as he plans his attack, reading and reacting to what’s in front of him, using a series of weight shifts and handling moves to navigate the neutral zone as he drives play toward the opposition goal. With this ability comes cunning in the form of a sophisticated delay game that allows him to level up and attack with support or connect with trailing linemates as they enter the play.” – Elite Prospects
Pick analysis: At development camp we saw a player who combines instant-adrenaline skating with elite ice vision and self-confidence. He’s the team’s most dynamic offensive playmaker at any level and should be a one-man solution to the Kraken power play within three years.
Round 2 Pick 40: Julius Miettinen, F, Everett Silvertips (WHL) Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 207 | Shot: Left Games played: 66 | Goals: 31 | Assists: 36 | PPG: 1.02 | Plus-minus: 27 | % of offense: 0.234 Big Board rank: 41 | Highest analyst rank: 22 (Button, HockeyProspect(dot)com) | Data rank: 61
Scouting notes: “Miettinen is a well-built, strong, 6-foot-3 center who works, wins battles, plays hard and can skate. He’s got some soft skill and power to his game. He protects the puck well and can play along the wall or go to the front of the net and make plays around the crease.” – Scott Wheeler, The Athletic
Pick analysis: Miettinen brings a player profile the Kraken system is currently lacking—a physically imposing, two-way forward who projects to stick at center long term. Elite Prospectscompares him to Charlie Coyle or Boone Jenner. Like those players, his game at development camp looked simple, but on closer inspection you start to understand how he intelligently puts himself in positions to win more than his share of battles and grind out the production a team needs to win.
Scouting notes: “[Villeneuve’s] an all-around forward who plays with good pace and isn’t afraid to mix it up along the boards. Villeneuve loves to spend time causing havoc in front of the net and plays a strong off-puck game compared to many others around this point in the list. His energy and feistiness will give him a shot in the NHL, even if he doesn’t have the pure skill to burn.” – Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff
Pick analysis: I watched at least a half-dozen of Villeneuve’s games between monitoring David Goyette and getting a feel for Sudbury’s 2024 NHL Draft prospects. His physical edge, not to mention a fight or two, always stood out. So too did his pro-ready movements and game. He’s not flashy, but it all looks NHL-translatable, at least in a depth role. Scouts see a center in the long term, perhaps as a third-liner or an outstanding fourth-line player. Villeneuve didn’t stand out at development camp, but he plays a game that should shine brighter when the physicality ratchets up in training camp.
Scouting notes: “He’s a fast, agile defenseman who really knows how to utilize his skating ability. He loves using it to keep the tempo high, whether that’s with his gap control, man-to-man defending, breaking pucks out, or activating from the offensive blueline. Despite not being overly big he really plays hard and with an edge. He might never be a true specialist on either side of special teams, but he’ll be someone who can comfortably handle the responsibilities of both.
“The Drakkar are going to be top contenders in the QMJHL for the next two seasons, and Bernier seems like the type of player who elevates his game to new heights during a deep playoff run and then never looks back.” – McKeen’s
Pick analysis: Bernier’s a fluid mover and adept puck handler, and he was one of his junior team’s best players at breaking out of the defensive zone. Perhaps his strongest trait, according to scouts, is his hockey sense, which allows him to diagnose and shut down opposing offensive chances before they materialize. On the other hand, I don’t see clear winning traits in the offensive zone, which raises developmental questions.
Round 3 Pick 88: Kim Saarinen, G, HPK U20 (U20 SM-sarja) Height: 6’4″ | Weight: 181 Games played: 23 | GAA: 2.41 | Save %: .917 Big Board rank: 105 | Highest analyst rank: 56 (Kennedy) | Data rank: N/A
Scouting notes: “His 6-foot-4 frame does offer some clear advantages, especially covering high when he’s down… but he plays a surprisingly active style for someone of his stature. He keeps excellent access to his edges and remains patient when the puck is passed around the zone, capable of making quick adjustments in either direction… He’s also a difficult goaltender to beat on clean shots because of his above-average tracking ability.” – Elite Prospects
Round 4 Pick 105: Ollie Josephson, F, Red Deer Rebels (WHL) Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 181 | Shot: Left Games played: 68 | Goals: 12 | Assists: 35 | PPG: 0.69 | Plus-minus: -4 | % of offense: 0.22 Big Board rank: 77 | Highest analyst rank: 33 (Scouching) | Data rank: 226
Scouting notes: “Josephson is the type of forward who will always earn more love from coaches than from fans. He’s a steady center who is rarely one of the most skilled players on the ice but is usually among the smartest and the hardest working.” – McKeen’s
Pick analysis: Josephson’s an impressive athlete who moves well–even if the skating could still be cleaned up a bit. He brings pace in transition and is committed in every aspect of the checking game. I’d expect his scoring production to take a step forward in his draft-plus-one season. It’s easy enough to imagine a checking role as a professional. Whether he tops out in the NHL or AHL remains to be seen, though.
Round 5 Pick 141: Clarke Caswell, F, Swift Current Broncos (WHL) Height: 5’11” | Weight: 176 | Shot: Left Games played: 68 | Goals: 26 | Assists: 51 | PPG: 1.13 | Plus-minus: 17 | % of offense: 0.269 Big Board rank: 79 | Highest analyst rank: 36 (Scouching) | Data rank: 53
Scouting notes: “He’s so, so smart with how he times almost every move he makes on the ice. Finding open ice off the puck, creating open ice with it in every zone of the ice, reading breakouts and stopping defensive zone cycles, it’s just wonderful to watch… He absolutely needs to work on the skating as many have pointed out but I don’t think it’s that big of an issue, and the data indicates that if he improves there, he could be an elite player considering how good his output is already.” – Scouching
Pick analysis: Caswell’s junior scoring data justified a much higher selection. Before the draft I had him listed–along with Fibigr, actually–as an “alternative” for Seattle at No. 73. Caswell’s scoring touch was evident at development camp. The question with him is can he develop the complimentary skills necessary to succeed at a professional level. There is a solid baseline here, though.
Round 7 Pick 202: Jakub Fibigr, D, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL) Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 172 | Shot: Left Games played: 61 | Goals: 7 | Assists: 36 | PPG: 0.7 | Plus-minus: 13 | % of offense: 0.192 Big Board rank: 98 | Highest analyst rank: 54 (Kennedy) | Data rank: 37
Scouting notes: “He has a very well-rounded skill set. His mobility is above average, with his ability to build speed quickly out of cuts and pivots being his best strength. This helps him have a real positive impact on the transition game as he skates away from pressure and initiates the breakout.” – McKeen’s
Pick analysis: Like Caswell, Fibigr’s scoring data implied a much earlier draft pick. He also looked strong in his activations at development camp, even if the defense was an adventure at times. Fibigr reminds me a bit of Ryker Evans both in stature and in their draft-year profiles. Evans ultimately went undrafted in his first-eligible draft, only to be selected in the second round by the Kraken as an overager. I suspect Fibigr could follow a similar development path and could have been a much higher pick next year if the Kraken didn’t snatch him in the seventh round. A lot hinges on Fibigr’s ability to make defensive improvements.
The Deep Sea draft
In case you’re curious, I made an alternative “Deep Sea draft” for the Seattle Kraken as the draft was ongoing using my watchlist and pre-draft work. I assumed the same late-round trade the Kraken actually made.
Having seen Catton up close at development camp, I admit that it’s tough for me to contemplate a draft class without him now. Furthermore, my draft does not address the team’s need for depth at center, which I have come to appreciate more after looking at it since the draft. My draft also does not address a common criticism I saw of Seattle’s haul—that it included too many smaller players. My group has a similar average height and weight to the real Kraken class. In the end, it’ll be interesting to compare years down the road.
More draft and prospects content?
Draft season never really ends at Sound Of Hockey. I expect to have a capstone post looking at the league-wide 2024 NHL Draft trends and the performance of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board as a predictive tool. Then we’ll return after that with a Kraken prospect ranking including the 2024 draft picks and a preseason data-only look at the 2025 NHL Draft. So, stay tuned here if you like following the draft and Kraken prospects.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
The Everett Silvertips faithful were out in full force at Kraken Community Iceplex on Friday, July 5, as the Stucky Cup scrimmage (coincidentally named for former Silvertips equipment manager James Stucky) concluded Seattle Kraken Development Camp.
They showed off their support for not just the local NHL squad, but also two players of their own in Kaden Hammell and Julius Miettinen that they’ve seen develop through the years at Angel of the Winds Arena.
— Everett Silvertips (@WHLsilvertips) July 6, 2024
Hammell said he was thrilled when Miettinen was taken by the Kraken in the second round of this summer’s NHL Draft, and explained what some of the added benefits were of having an embedded connection like theirs.
“There’s always going to be that connection that you have when you’re battling nine months with a guy.” Hammell said. “It’s pretty awesome that we both get to go through the same experiences and we can connect on certain things that maybe other prospects in different organizations can’t.”
This process isn’t anything new for Hammell, however. Having been through his first full season as a prospect in the organization, the 19-year-old defenseman from Langley, B.C., evaluated the strides he’s taken since being selected in the fifth round of the 2023 NHL Draft, as well as what steps he still needs in order to reach the next level.
Kaden Hammell’s experience in Everett and Seattle
It’s not always an easy process being traded in the middle of the season, but Hammell felt such a change of scenery could help further along his career. That it has.
Hammell was originally acquired by Everett via trade from Kamloops in January, 2023, as part of the same deal that sent Olen Zellweger to the Blazers, as well as landing the Silvertips the first overall pick in this past WHL Draft.
In 83 regular-season games since joining the Silvertips, he’s tallied eight goals and 43 points, consistently maintaining a half-point-per-game benchmark he’s been at for most of his WHL career. He also has had a few bruised knuckles along the way.
There’s more to Hammell’s game that he feels he’s unlocked, however, since arriving in Everett. He’s elevated from a stay-at-home, shut-down defensive role, to becoming more of a versatile and fluid player on both ends of the ice.
The Kraken selected Hammell in the fifth round of the 2023 NHL Draft, and since the selection, he’s said that the Kraken development staff helped him to gain more confidence in his two-way game, with them telling him to “really own” his skillsets everywhere he goes on the ice.
“Having that versatility is the most important thing for my career right now,” Hammell said. “I’m making sure that I’m good in both zones, and creating as much as I can offensively.”
He showed flashes of offensive prowess down the stretch of last season, where he garnered eight points in his last 10 games. And while Everett fell in the second round of the playoffs to Portland, Hammell’s offensive involvement grew throughout the postseason, tallying three goals in nine games, with two of those coming on the power play.
Being 18 years old at the beginning of last season, former head coach Dennis Williams bestowed Hammell with an assistant captaincy position, a role he felt helped him grow closer to being a professional.
“I learned a lot throughout the year about what it means to be a leader,” Hammell said. “Especially going into the playoffs, I feel like that was a time where leadership was a super key thing to have.”
Despite getting an amateur tryout with the Coachella Valley Firebirds after the Silvertips season concluded, Hammell still has some distance to cover before making an impact at the professional level.
He will likely spend one more season in Everett, which isn’t the worst thing in the world considering the talent that’s brimming at the defensive position. And as one of the elder statesmen in the room, a full-time captaincy position could be in the cards for him.
Leading a loaded defensive group
The Silvertips’ back end might be one of the more talented groups in the league this season, and for some good reasons.
Before Hammell shared the ice with Miettinen at Kraken Development Camp in 2024, 2023 main training camp saw another Silvertips teammate of his in Eric Jamieson receive a camp invite.
Jamieson made the most of the opportunity and his offensive production jumped up last season to 10 goals and 32 points, leading to a sixth-round draft selection by the Calgary Flames.
Another one of Hammell’s defensive partners, Tarin Smith, was drafted in third round by the Anaheim Ducks after a breakout season with 44 points in 67 games.
“It’s an unbelievable spot. It’s a pro organization and they run things like no other place,” Smith said. “They treat us like pros and they expect us to act like pros. I feel like it’s one of the [best] spots for development in [the CHL].”
The group Hammell’s about to lead would be impressive by itself with him and the two additional NHL Draft choices set to return to Everett for the 2024-25 season, not to mention the expected added impacts from Niko Tsakumis and Cameron Sytsma.
But if and when they finally add their blue chip, exceptional-status phenom in Landon DuPont, Everett’s blue line all of a sudden could turn into one of the better units in recent WHL history.
“All hope is that [DuPont] comes,” Hammell said. “The whole team’s super excited to play with him and I know the organization is going to be thrilled to have him.”
Even with DuPont and management staff still not having put pen to paper just yet, it is expected to happen soon, and it’s safe to say this upcoming Silvertips season could be one of the more anticipated in the club’s history.
“I have full belief that they’re going to make the right decisions with the coaching and management staff,” Hammell said. “There’s nothing to worry about there. We’re gonna be an amazing team and we got a lot of firepower to work off of from last year.”
On Sunday, the Seattle Kraken announced the signing of 2024 third-round draft pick Kim Saarinen to an entry-level contract. That deal brought the team’s total number of NHL contracts to 50.
If this number rings a bell for you, it’s probably because you’ve heard mention of the “50-Contract Rule,” which limits how many players a team can have signed at any one time.
What is this rule, and what does it mean that Seattle now has 50 NHL contracts? Even the most dedicated fan would be forgiven for not knowing the nuances of this rule.
This is because discussion of the 50-Contract Rule typically lacks important context. Head over to the Seattle Kraken page on Puckpedia, for example, and you’ll see a simple note that Seattle has now used all 50 contract slots for the 2024-25 season. Is this true? Not really. What does it mean that Seattle has 50 NHL contracts? Puckpedia and other public resources don’t provide that answer. (To be fair, CapFriendly did not provide useful context either before it shuttered earlier this month.)
To make matters worse, even if the industrious fan sought out the source rule in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”), the fan would likely come away with an incorrect understanding of how the 50-Contract Rule operates in practice. NHL teams actually follow a shadow rule—or, at least, a strained interpretation of the words in the CBA. Of course, this contributes to the flawed public discourse.
So, let’s dive into this sometimes-mentioned, rarely-explained 50-Contract Rule and consider what it means for the Kraken roster-building options moving forward.
The Kraken have 50 NHL contracts
Following Seattle’s initial wave of free agent signings at the beginning of the month, the team had 47 NHL contracts on the books for the 2024-25 season. Then, on July 5, the Kraken signed restricted free agent Eeli Tolvanen and 2024 first-round pick Berkly Catton to NHL deals, and, on July 14, the team signed Saarinen. This brought Seattle’s NHL contract total to 50.
Are the Kraken now hamstrung from signing any more NHL contracts this offseason? If so, does this mean that the team will have to trade (or terminate) a contract simply to sign a deal with unsigned restricted free agent Matty Beniers?
The answer is no, but let’s find out why.
The 50-Contract Rule explained
Under the CBA, an NHL team may have a maximum of 90 players on its “Reserve List” at any time. A team’s Reserve List includes all players signed to standard NHL player contracts (“SPC”) as well as all unsigned NHL Draft choices during the time period the team retains exclusive NHL negotiating rights with the player.
Below the 90-player overall limit, the CBA provides that a team is allowed “not more than 50 players signed to an SPC.” This is the “50-Contract Rule.”
Unsigned players or players who have signed a contract directly with an AHL or ECHL affiliate do not count toward this 50-contract limit. As of the posting of this article, Beniers has not agreed to a contract for the 2024-25 season, so he does not count under the 50-Contract Rule. Likewise, recent Kraken Development Camp invitee Landon McCallum does not count because he signed an AHL contract directly with the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
With respect to existing NHL contracts, though, the 50-Contract Rule is subject to only one exception: “Age 18 and age 19 players who were returned to Juniors, and who have not played 11 NHL Games in one season, shall be exempt from inclusion in the 50 Player limit” (the “Juniors Exemption”). Separately, the CBA defines the word “Juniors” to mean the major junior leagues in the Canadian Hockey League.
Based on this black-and-white CBA language, one might reasonably conclude that an 18- or 19-year-old player becomes exempt from the 50-Contract Rule only after the player is returned to a CHL team to play the season. If the player has not yet been returned or the player is returned to play in some other non-CHL league, he is not exempt.
In reality, it doesn’t work that way.
Here is how the Juniors Exemption actually works: Signed 18- or 19 year-old players are, from the moment their contracts go into effect, exempt from the 50-Contract Rule unless and until the player is placed on an active professional (i.e., NHL, AHL, or ECHL) roster. This would typically happen coming out of NHL training camp. If the player is not added to a professional roster and instead returns to play with any other club team, the player continues to be exempt from the 50-Contract Rule.
If an 18- or 19-year-old player remains on the NHL roster to begin a year, the player counts against the limit, but could regain the exemption if returned to the player’s other club before playing 11 NHL games. For example, Shane Wright counted against Seattle’s 50-contract limit to begin the 2022-23 season, but became exempt again when he was assigned back to the CHL after having played only eight NHL games.
Finally, the Juniors Exemption applies to all 18- or 19-year-old players who have been or could be returned to other leagues, not just the CHL. For example, Oscar Fisker-Molgaard’s contract is exempt during the 2024 offseason even though he would be returned to the 2024-25 season in the SHL, the top-level professional league in Sweden.
The Kraken have room to sign Beniers or other NHL contracts
The Kraken have seven 18- or 19-year-old players who fall within the Juniors Exemption to the 50-Contract Rule:
Carson Rehkopf (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
Eduard Sale (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
Lukas Dragicevic (Tri-City Americans, WHL)
Caden Price (Kelowna Rockets, WHL)
Berkly Catton (Spokane Chiefs, WHL)
Oscar Fisker Molgaard (HV71, SHL)
Kim Saarinen (HPK, Liiga)
Accordingly, contrary to what one would reasonably surmise from PuckPedia, it is fairer to say the Kraken are currently at 43 of 50 non-exempt NHL contracts under the 50-Contract Rule.
There is an outside possibility that Rehkopf or Catton could earn an extended look on the Kraken roster this fall after training camp—which would, at least temporarily, end their exemptions. But the most likely outcome is that all these exemptions will persist into the 2024-25 season.
The team will want to leave itself flexibility for in-season additions if the NHL roster is struck by injuries or performance declines. But with spots open for seven more NHL contracts, the team has more than enough room to sign Beniers and add a minimum-salary veteran free-agent scorer before the season, should it desire to do so.
It is good to have that option open to add another NHL contract rather than being hemmed against the limit. An NHL contract is always going to be more appealing to a free agent than an AHL offer or an invite to camp on a professional tryout agreement, for example.
Kraken contracts corner
We put out a call on Twitter for contract or CBA minutiae you’d like to see addressed in future posts. The 50-Contract Rule analysis was inspired by one such question. Continue to send questions our way on Twitter or in the comments below. In the meantime, here are a few more Kraken contract quick hits:
1. Future contracts and the 50-Contract Rule
One other important point of clarification when counting contracts under the 50-Contract Rule: A contract signed for a future season only counts against the limit during the league year when the contract actually begins, not at the time it is signed. For example, Lleyton Roed signed an entry-level contract with the Kraken on March 29, 2024, which began with the 2024-25 season. Thus, his contract counted against the limit only as of July 1, 2024, the first day of the 2024-25 league year, not earlier.
2. Draft picks and the Reserve List
The time period of exclusive control over a drafted but unsigned player varies depending on where the player was drafted from. To date, Seattle has lost exclusive negotiating rights to only one drafted player, Kyle Jackson. The signing deadlines for Seattle’s other drafted prospects are as follows:
3. Saarinen signing breaks new ground
Returning to where we began, the Saarinen signing is intriguing even in isolation. The team got a close look at the 6-foot-4 Finnish goaltender earlier this month at Kraken Development Camp. And, after that viewing, the Kraken decided to make Saarinen the first Seattle draft pick selected outside the first round to sign an NHL contract during the summer of his draft year. Saarinen also hops over two earlier-drafted goalies, countryman Visa Vedenpaa and Russian Semyon Vyazovoi, in earning a contract. Fair or not, this puts added focus on him for this coming season.
4. Qualifying offers and the timeline to sign Beniers
On June 30, the Seattle Kraken extended Matty Beniers a “qualifying offer.” Based on the formula in the CBA, the offer was a one-year, one-way deal worth $874,125. That process was merely a formality, though. Beniers was never going to accept that deal. The Kraken offered it because they were required to do so in order to retain Beniers’ restricted free agent rights.
The keen observer will note that Beniers’ qualifying offer may have expired at 2:00 pm PT yesterday, July 15. That is the default deadline for expiry of qualifying offers in the CBA (though a team can theoretically extend the deadline).
What does it mean if Beniers’ qualifying offer expired? Nothing really. The team and the player continue to negotiate directly on a contract. Since Beneirs does not have enough professional experience (four seasons) to qualify for salary arbitration under the CBA, the rarely-used “offer sheet” from another team is the only alternative available to the player.
I’ve seen questions about the timeline for resolution on Beniers’ contract. Typically, the salary arbitration procedure creates deadlines throughout the offseason that spur restricted free agent deals. But, as mentioned, Beniers does not yet have arbitration rights, so the sides cannot rely on that framework. Instead, they are left to negotiate without any specific offseason deadlines.
I’d imagine the team will do everything it can to get Beniers’ contract resolved before training camp—particularly since Beniers remains the face of the young organization. And it could be much sooner. Quentin Byfield, a player in a similar situation to Beniers, just signed a deal with the Los Angeles Kings on July 15. Last year, the Kraken signed (arbitration-eligible) Vince Dunn on July 21.
5. AHL eligibility under the CHL Transfer Agreement
Another question I often see on Twitter asks which Kraken prospects from the CHL are eligible to play in the AHL this coming year. For background, see this earlier post on the CHL Transfer Agreement when looking at Shane Wright’s situation.
In short, a player drafted from the CHL must be 20 years old by Dec. 31, 2024, in order to be eligible to be assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds for the 2024-25 season. If the player is younger than that, he must be offered back to his Junior team if he does not make the NHL roster out of training camp. The following signed prospects are eligible for an AHL assignment this year:
David Goyette (DOB: March 27, 2004)
Ty Nelson (DOB: March 30, 2004)
Jagger Firkus (DOB: April 29, 2004)
Additionally, Eduard Sale (DOB: March 10, 2005) is eligible because, technically, he was playing in the Czech Elite League when he was drafted, so the CHL Transfer Agreement does not apply to him. Sale has been playing in the CHL’s Ontario Hockey League since Seattle selected him in the 2023 NHL Draft. Andrei Loshko (DOB: Oct. 7, 2005) would also be eligible to play in the AHL if he signs a contract, but he is currently unsigned. Tyson Jugnauth (DOB: April 17, 2004) is also age-eligible, though the CHL Transfer Agreement doesn’t apply because he was drafted out of the BCHL.
Conversely, the following CHL players, though signed to NHL contracts, are ineligible for an AHL assignment absent an extraordinary exception or one-off agreement:
Carson Rehkopf (DOB: Jan. 7, 2005)
Lukas Dragicevic (DOB: Apr. 25, 2005)
Caden Price (DOB: Aug. 24, 2005)
Berkly Catton (DOB: Jan. 14, 2006)
6. AHL signings bring clarity to the depth chart
On July 12, the Coachella Valley Firebirds reportedly agreed to terms with four players.
Hearing the Coachella Valley @Firebirds have re-signed several depth pieces from last season's squad to AHL deals for 2024-25, including:
Kraken GM Ron Francis had indicated previously that he believed LaFontaine would return. These players join 20-year-old forward Landon McCallum as players reportedly signing AHL contracts with the Firebirds for the 2024-25 season. All of these additions qualify as “developmental” players (or are otherwise exempt) under the “Veteran Rule” at the AHL level.
I currently have the following players projected to compete for AHL roster spots:
Looking at the depth chart, there may be room to add one more piece on the blue line, perhaps even a high-end “veteran” piece. But, otherwise, the depth chart is looking fairly set.
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Several weeks have passed since the Seattle Kraken made a significant splash in free agency by committing $90 million to two high-profile signings. Assuming no trades on the horizon, the Kraken’s roster appears set for the 2024-25 season. I have previously stated on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast that both Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour are likely to immediately join the first power play unit when the regular season begins. Evaluating the impact of these additions to the power play is challenging, but I wanted to take a deep dive into the Kraken’s power play potential.
Historical power play performance
The Kraken’s power play performance last season was not bad; in terms of power play execution percentage, they were just slightly below league average and ranked 17th in the league.
Additionally, the Kraken’s power play has improved in each of the last three seasons.
The improvement between 2021-22 and 2022-23 can largely be attributed to the acquisitions of quality shooters Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky, Eeli Tolvanen, and a full year of Daniel Sprong, replacing the power play minutes of Marcus Johansson, Calle Jarnkrok, Morgan Geekie, Joonas Donskoi, and a portion of the minutes of Ryan Donato and Yanni Gourde.
It is probably a safe assumption to expect Montour to take Schultz’s power play time on ice, plus more. Stephenson will likely end up in the top five in power play time on ice next season. He will replace all of Wennberg’s power play time and, likely, Jaden Schwartz’s time as well, since they all play similar roles on the power play. Montour had the most power play time on ice for defensemen on Florida with 15,466 seconds, while Stephenson had the third most power play time on Vegas with 12,957 seconds. Clearly, Montour and Stephenson were key pieces of their respective teams’ power plays, but how much are they contributing to power play scoring?
Contribution of power play points
Evaluating how much a player contributes to scoring on a power play is a rather simple calculation: the sum of a player’s points divided by the total team’s power play goals.
This is how the Kraken looked last season:
Now let’s bring in Montour and Stephenson to see how they stack up.
It is not a perfect analysis, but if Montour and Stephenson contribute at the same rate with the Kraken as they did with their 2023-24 teams, they will certainly provide an upgrade over the players they will be replacing on the power play.
Chandler Stephenson’s passing
One thing public models cannot evaluate very well, if at all, is a player’s ability to pass the puck. Most public models use the play-by-play data published by the NHL for every game. If you scan through any game’s play-by-play data, you won’t see ‘pass’ as a play type. This unfairly handicaps the evaluation of elite passers. I am not saying that Chandler Stephenson is an elite passer, but I know he is at least a ‘very good’ passer.
Here are a couple examples of power play assists from Stephenson.
Jonathan Marchessault gets Vegas' second power play goal of the game to restore the Knights' three-goal lead. pic.twitter.com/50WgYWFyA6
— Golden Knights Radio (@VGKRadioNetwork) April 13, 2024
Adding a player like Stephenson to the Kraken’s power play will be exciting to watch. He has the potential to elevate the play of those around him and could significantly increase the team’s execution and options on the power play.
Wrapping it up
The Kraken’s power play has steadily improved over the past three seasons, and the additions of Stephenson and Montour provide an opportunity to build on that momentum. Both players bring substantial power play experience and proven track records of contributing to their former teams’ success. Stephenson’s exceptional passing ability could be a game-changer, creating a more dynamic power play. While predicting the exact impact of these new additions is challenging, the potential for a more potent and effective power play is evident. As the season unfolds, it will be exciting to see how these changes translate on the ice and if the Kraken can become one of the top 10 power play teams in the league.
The Seattle Kraken news machine is starting to slow down, but there were plenty of odds and ends to tie up on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast this week.
To start the show, John gives Darren a very thoughtful gift.
Then, the guys drift to Kraken news for quite a while, before hitting their interview with forward prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard. The promising and affable Dane returns for his second appearance on the show, and he does not disappoint.
