As the NHL preseason nears its conclusion, the Coachella Valley Firebirds roster is solidifying. The offseason brought significant changes to Coachella Valley, including a new head coach and a substantial roster turnover.
The Firebirds have two preseason games scheduled against the Milwaukee Admirals, both in Independence, Missouri: Oct. 4 and 5. Their regular-season home opener is set for Oct. 11 against the Bakersfield Condors. Training camp for the Firebirds started on Sept. 30, and with some AHL players spending part of that time still with the Kraken, the training camp roster has been a mix of projected ECHL and AHL players.
New Firebirds coach, Derek Laxdal, has been hired to replace Dan Bylsma, who was promoted to head coach for the Seattle Kraken. Assistant coach Jessica Campbell also joined the Kraken, leaving a vacancy that was filled by former WHL Saskatoon Blades coach Brennan Sonne. Assistant coach Stu Bickell will remain in his role.
Laxdal brings a winning mentality, boasting 15 winning seasons in 19 years as a coach. He has championship experience as both a player and a coach. As a player, he won the Calder Cup in 1990 with the Springfield Indians. As the coach of the Edmonton Oil Kings, he won WHL championships in 2011-12 and 2013-14, with the 2014 team also raising the Memorial Cup. Laxdal’s coaching career encompasses a wide range of levels, from the CHL to the NHL.
Laxdal commented on what fans can expect to see in the upcoming season, “You’re going to see a team I think that you have seen here before that competes night in, night out, competes hard on the puck. [It’s a team] that plays hard, that has great intensity and you’re going to see a little bit more skill level coming into the organization with all these young prospects.”
Roster overhaul
The Firebirds’ significant roster turnover was largely due to the veteran rule, which I discussed in July. This has opened up opportunities for Kraken prospects. There are 14 new faces on the team roster. Here’s a projected lineup for the team.
* New Firebirds for the upcoming season
David Goyette, Jani Nyman, and Lleyton Roed joined the Firebirds at the end of last season. While they gained some experience with the team, this upcoming season will be their first full campaign with the Firebirds. Therefore, they’re considered new players for the 2024-25 season in the table above.
Firebirds youth movement
The Firebirds are undergoing a youth movement as more young players, including several Kraken draft picks, join the team. This has resulted in a roster with a significantly lower average age.
A younger forward group
The forward group projected above has an average age of 23.1 years, a decrease of one full year from last season. Eight forwards are under 23, and five of these players will either make their professional debut or play in their first full year with the AHL club.
Jagger Firkus: The 2023-24 CHL overall scoring leader with 126 points, Firkus will transition to right wing this season. His size has always been a question, but his ability to succeed in his new position and maintain his scoring prowess at the AHL level will be crucial for his development.
David Goyette: A second-round pick by the Kraken in 2022, Goyette consistently improved his scoring and capped off his junior career by winning the OHL scoring race with 117 points.
Jani Nyman: Known affectionately as “Li’l Jani” by Sound Of Hockey, Nyman is anything but small. At 6-foot-3, 212 pounds, this right winger has a powerful shot and knack for finding open ice. In Liiga, Nyman finished second overall in goals scored with 26 in 48 games. This achievement is even more impressive considering it’s the fourth-most goals scored by an under-20 player in league history.
Lleyton Roed: A speedy undrafted free agent, Roed’s performance at Bemidji State earned him a Hobey Baker Award nomination. The Kraken quickly signed him to an entry-level contract. Sound Of Hockey’s own Darren Brown recently wrote a profile on Roed.
Eduard Sale: The 2023 first-round pick spent last season in the OHL where he recorded 38 points in 49 games. Given his young age and potential, it’s logical for him to join the Firebirds, allowing the Kraken organization to directly oversee his development. Coach Bylsma has praised Sale, “Being heavy on the forecheck and using the stick and feet to get there. And he’s starting to see more [opportunities on the ice].” Sale could still be returned to the OHL, but the Firebirds are giving him a look to see if he can play at the AHL level. If he can stick, it would allow the Kraken to get more of a hands-on approach to his development.
Returning youngsters Logan Morrison, Tucker Robertson, and Jacob Melanson will aim to build on their successes from last year and take the next step in their development.
Defense corps
Only three players return from last year’s defensive corps. The Firebirds also have three defensive players under the age of 23.
Ville Ottavainen: This big, 6-foot-5 defender has developed nicely. He provided more offensive punch than expected in his first year with the Firebirds, scoring 34 points. The right-shot defenseman has looked impressive in training camp with the Kraken and scored with a rocket one-timer against the Calgary Flames on Monday. He could be the first defenseman called up by Seattle if needed this season.
Ty Nelson: At 5-foot-10, 208 pounds, the sturdy Nelson doesn’t shy away from physical play. He excels at moving the puck and contributes offensively. This will be his first season in the AHL, and watching his game translate at the professional level will be something to monitor.
Charlie Wright: An undrafted free agent who signed a one-year deal with the Firebirds, Wright served as an alternate captain for his WHL team, the Saskatoon Blades. New assistant coach and former head coach of Wright and the Blades, Brennan Sonne, commented, “He’s done everything right. He’s one of the most underrated players in the league, honestly. He’s a pro, through and through. He’s meant the world to the team, as being so steady that whole time. His growth as a player, I just think it’s incredible the way he’s been able to produce offensively while still bringing what he’s great at, which is skating and his ability to shut players down.”
With this roster, the defense is getting slightly younger, going from an average age of 25.1 to 24.8. This assumes Wright (Charlie, not Shane) remains in the AHL. If he is sent to the ECHL, either Ryan Jones or Jake McLaughlin would take the final spot, raising the average age to 25.6.
However, with Cale Fleury being waived Thursday by the Kraken for the purposes of reassigning him to Coachella Valley, the defensive picture could be a little more solidified Friday if he clears.
Goaltending
The Coachella Valley Firebirds will enter the season with Ales Stezka as their starting goaltender. Stezka is the only Firebirds goalie to see preseason action with the Seattle Kraken, appearing in two games. The backup role is less certain, but Niklas Kokko appears to be the frontrunner.
Niklas Kokko / Jessica Campbell
In Kansas City, we would expect the Mavericks to start Jack LaFontaine in goal, with Victor Ostman serving as the backup.
Influx of young talent
The Firebirds roster has experienced a surge of promising Kraken prospects this season. This influx of young talent, combined with the team’s established veterans, promises a thrilling AHL campaign. While the team may have some growing pains, watching the players’ development will be a treat for fans. Firebirds games, along with those of their ECHL affiliate, the Kansas City Mavericks, are available for streaming via subscription on FloHockey.tv.
As the Firebirds gear up for the new season, expectations are high. With a younger squad and a new head coach at the helm, the team is looking to make a strong impression. Will they be able to compete for a playoff spot? Only time will tell.
Let us know your questions and predictions for the upcoming season in the comments below. You can also follow me @blaizg on x.com.
The Seattle Kraken have been active this offseason, making a splash in free agency and shaking up the coaching staff. With the NHL preseason starting in just over a month, we wanted to go over what we expect to see from the Kraken under new bench boss, Dan Bylsma.
Coaching style
Bylsma’s approach to coaching stems from the relationships he is able to build. We often hear that he is well-prepared, direct, and clear in his messaging, and he creates a balance between being firm on what the player needs to do to succeed while keeping the atmosphere light and positive.
One comment we’ve heard on his coaching style is that his offense relies heavily on the stretch pass, where his players leave the defensive zone early and try to receive a long pass for an odd-man rush. This worked in Pittsburgh, where they had highly skilled players, but can the Kraken replicate that success? His time in Coachella Valley showed that he has updated his style to match the players on his team and adopted a similar system to what the Kraken were using under Dave Hakstol. So, perhaps his approach to systems in Seattle will be different to that of his time with the Penguins.
Buzz words
Dan Bylsma’s coaching style is all about a fast north-south transition game. (**Editor’s Note: That is a bit of an inside joke from one of the Sound Of Hockey Patreon Mailbag sessions.)
Thank you to Sound Of Hockey Patreon member Mike N. for submitting a question and triggering this article. Mike asked, “… what should we be looking for when the team takes the ice in preseason?” as well as some definitions for some buzz words around Bylsma’s coaching style. Let’s start with some definitions:
Transition game – How the team moves from defense to offense. Typically, speed and control contribute to a better transition game.
Fast – When mentioned in the same breath as coaching, this typically refers to the pace at which the team gets the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone.
North/South – North is the offensive zone and South is the defensive zone. It involves excelling in both zones and getting up and down the ice quickly. Our own Darren Brown wrote about systems and “playing fast” back in April.
Really, the above words can be used in any combination to describe what any team or coach is trying to do. If there are other buzz words causing confusion, feel free to comment below and we will try to define them.
Indicators of success for Bylsma
Preseason games have a few purposes: one of which is to practice and fine tune for the regular season, and another of which is to determine who makes the final Opening Night roster. And while personnel for NHL teams during preseason can vary dramatically from game to game, we should start to get a glimpse at Bylsma’s strategies during these games, as his players put systematic tweaks into practice. Here’s what we will be looking for in these games.
Dan Bylsma (Photo/Brian Liesse)
North/South
North (offense)
The No. 1 goal for the Kraken this season should be to increase scoring if they are to have any success. Seattle was 29th in the NHL in goals scored in 2023-24. This can be tracked simply by looking at the goals scored per game, but this does not take into account the quality of opponent. Another statistic to consider is high-danger shots. Seattle was also 29th in the NHL for high-danger shots at 252 during the 2023-24 season, per Moneypuck.com, which tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots.
For the eye test folks, you will want to watch if the Kraken are getting shots from between the face-off dots. Under Hakstol, the Kraken played a possession game and cycled the puck along the boards looking for an opening to get the puck into the high-danger areas. Many of their shots, though, ended up coming from the points when they struggled to get pucks to the middle. We do not expect the approach to change dramatically, but watch if the Kraken are able to get the puck off the boards more frequently.
Another big part of offensive success comes from the power play. New assistant coach Bob Woods will be in charge of running the power play with Jessica Campbell also providing guidance. The Kraken have seen improvement year-over-year with the power play, topping out at 20.7 percent last season. This ranked the Kraken in the middle of the NHL, but continued improvement will be welcomed. Seattle has upgraded personnel for this area as well with the additions of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, so perhaps these changes will give the team a boost with the manpower advantage.
Read more about the Kraken power play in an article by our own John Barr. Once again, it’s important to focus on where the shots are being taken; more shots from within the face-off dots will lead to more offensive success.
South (defense)
There is not much to change on the south end of the ice, as the Kraken were eighth best in the league in goals against with 232. Out of the top 10 teams in goals against, the Kraken were the only team to not make the postseason. With the addition of Montour and the expectation that Ryker Evans makes the Kraken full-time this year, it does seem to shift the mindset of the D corps to lean more offensive, so it will be interesting to see how Seattle’s play in its own end evolves.
Moneypuck.com also tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots against. The Seattle Kraken were No. 1 in the NHL for allowing the fewest high-danger shots against (239), second at medium-danger shots (577), and 19th at low-danger shots (2727). This highlights that under Hakstol, the Kraken would give teams shots from low-percentage areas but really protected the more dangerous areas. If the Kraken are to continue their defensive effectiveness, watch for shots against to continue coming from the perimeter and from farther away from the net.
Fast transition game (controlled zone entries versus dump and chase)
The first few years of Kraken hockey featured a primarily dump-and-chase style. The Kraken would shoot the puck deep into the offensive zone and then use a forecheck to control it. The jury is still out on whether this was Hakstol’s preferred way to gain the zone or the best he could do it with the players he was given. Hakstol’s approach was partly defensive as well, as the other team cannot score if the puck is in their defensive zone. Bylsma will face similar personnel challenges, as the Kraken still lack elite offensive punch.
There has been a lot of research on the benefits of controlled zone entries. Research by Eric Tulsky and Thibaud Chatel is a good place to start if you want some additional reading. To summarize, successful controlled zone entries lead to a two-fold increase in shots on goal compared to dump and chase. This is something else to keep in mind while watching the games to determine if the Kraken tend to carry the puck into the zone or use a dump-and-chase approach. This will continue to evolve into the regular season as other NHL teams finalize their rosters and tweak their defensive play.
Players to watch
There are many interesting players to watch during training camp and preseason. We’ve divided these players into three groups: new free agents, Coachella Valley Firebirds, and players returning to junior hockey.
Two players new to Coach Bylsma’s system are free-agent signings Stephenson and Montour. Both are expected to be key contributors on the Kraken’s top lines. Identifying their linemates and seeing how on-ice chemistry develops during preseason will be a crucial storyline to follow.
Joining a new team as a free agent can be a rocky road for some players, so getting off to a good start will be important for these two players, who will face plenty of expectations to produce right away.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
From the 2023-24 Firebirds roster, two players stand out: Shane Wright and Ryker Evans. They are widely expected to make the Kraken roster full-time this year. Evans played 36 games with the Kraken last year and 25 games with the Firebirds, and with how the roster is now shaped, the organization is clearly expecting him to be with the big club. It will be interesting to watch how these two slot into the lineup and whether they look like they can keep up with NHL-level talent during the course of a full season.
Beyond these two players, there is a group of players getting closer, but who we expect to play for Coachella Valley this year. This group will be eager to show how they have improved during Training Camp. While this is not an exhaustive list, these are players we will be monitoring closely in preseason.
Logan Morrison
Ryan Winterton
Lleyton Roed
Tucker Robertson
Jacob Melanson
Ville Ottavainen
Jani Nyman
Jagger Firkus
David Goyette
Ty Nelson
Watching how long these players stick around during camp can be an indicator of how well they are performing and how they are perceived by the Kraken. There is still at least a roster spot or two to be had, so while we don’t *expect* these players to make the team full-time, it can happen.
Look no further than Tye Kartye, who made the most of his opportunity during the 2022-23 playoffs and then continued to impress in training camp to secure his spot on the roster. Even if none of these players make the team out of camp, this is a great chance to get a glimpse of the Kraken’s future while they play against elevated talent. They also may be call-ups in the event of injuries.
Players returning to juniors
Some of the top prospects in the Kraken organization are 19 or younger and not eligible to play in the AHL. These players either have to make the Kraken full-time or be returned to the CHL.
Carson Rehkopf
Berkly Catton
Eduard Sale*
It is a long shot for Rehkopf or Catton to make the roster for the full season, but if they put on a strong showing in rookie/training camp and preseason, they could stick around for up to nine games in the regular season. After that point, their entry-level contracts are no longer slide-eligible, meaning playing more NHL games would burn the first year of their entry-level contracts. Watching how these players are fitting in and hanging with legitimate NHL players provides a preview of the future.
Sale has an asterisk next to his name because it is unclear where he will play this year. Since he was playing in the Czech Extraliga when Seattle drafted the right winger, he is eligible to play for the Firebirds this year. At 19, he is also eligible to play in the CHL. The case for him playing with the Firebirds is strengthened by his 12 points in 10 games during the OHL playoffs, but he still hasn’t hit the level of production expected of a first-round draft pick. Additionally, Rehkopf was traded to the Brampton Steelheads, so Sale no longer has a fellow Kraken prospect with him in Kitchener.
While this is just speculation, with 38 points in 49 games in the CHL, returning to the Kitchener Rangers feels like the most likely destination for Sale.
#OHLRangers have completed a trade with the Brampton Steelheads
This article was inspired by one of our Patreon Mailbags. Thank you, Mike N., for the question and your support. (**Editor’s note: If you aren’t already a Patreon subscriber, you can become one today!). If you have any questions or comments please leave them below. You can follow me on the X at @blaizg.
Regardless of the playoff picture, I still enjoy watching the Kraken right now, especially when they win. The Kraken completed their California swing with wins against the Sharks and Ducks and a loss to the Kings in between. Sure, the victories were against two of the weaker teams in the league, but wins are wins, and you certainly wouldn’t want to see them lose to those teams, would you?
Shane Wright looks good
In my limited viewing of Coachella Valley Firebirds games and discussions I’ve had with people inside the Kraken, Shane Wright’s development has been very positive this season. The 20-year-old center has looked impressive since being called up on March 31, though I understand it has only been a few games. While I am excited about Shane, I remain cautious with prospects, knowing there’s an inherent bias in valuing something you possess. Nonetheless, we can appreciate what we’ve seen from him so far.
He scored a goal in his first game against the Sharks and added two against the Ducks on Friday night. However, his contributions extend beyond goal scoring. Wright plays sound defense, delivers quick, creative passes, and consistently positions himself well for scoring. He did make a few mistakes in his three games so far, but these should serve as learning opportunities.
When he was called up for three games in November, Wright appeared competent but cautious, often opting for the safe play to avoid errors. Although he wasn’t on a line with Jordan Eberle and Jaden Schwartz that time, which might have altered his current role with the big club, he now exudes more confidence and poses a greater threat on the ice than before.
Tremendous give and go between Wright and Schwartz in the neutral zone and then another that ends in a royal road feed from Eberle to Wright for the goal pic.twitter.com/pn3bs2wj9I
When evaluating Shane Wright’s development, I often compare it to the development path of Quinton Byfield, the Los Angeles Kings’ centerman. Their paths are not identical, but Wright and Byfield share similarities. Byfield, drafted second overall in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, was an OHL player. Due to the pandemic, he was allowed to spend his draft-plus-one season in the AHL and began playing most of his games in the NHL from the 2021-22 season onwards. However, it wasn’t until this season, four years after his draft year, that Byfield began to hit his stride at the top level, just as pundits were speculating that he might be a bust.
Shane is currently in his draft-plus-two season and, by all indications, will become a regular in the NHL next year, his draft-plus-three season. If he follows Byfield’s trajectory, we might not see his full capabilities in the NHL until 2025-26. The broader point is that we still need to be patient. What we should look for is progress in his development, which we have undoubtedly observed since he joined the franchise.
Other Musings
Friday’s win against the Ducks was Seattle’s eighth regular-season win against Anaheim since the inception of the Kraken, the most wins they have posted against any one team. The Kraken have the chance to beat the Sharks for the eighth time on Thursday in Seattle.
Logan Morrison and Ryan Winterton were scratched from games this week, a strategy often deployed when developing players to provide them with a different perspective of the game. This allows them to apply what they have learned from the handful of NHL games they’ve experienced at ice level and observe it from above. We would expect the duo to get another game or two at the NHL level before being sent back to Coachella Valley.
I would not pencil Morrison or Winterton into the lineup next year. Both show promise, but I am not convinced they will be ready to be regular NHLers next season.
Congratulations to Lleyton Roed on scoring his first professional goal on Sunday, just a week after signing his first professional hockey contract.
— x – Coachella Valley Firebirds (@Firebirds) April 8, 2024
After experiencing lots of challenges this season, Matty Beniers has been finding the net more often, with goals in four of his last six games. Below is his 10-game moving average of goals scored per game, which shows his scoring trend over 10 games at a time.
The IIHF Women’s World Championship kicked off last week, and one of the marquee games of the opening round is Canada versus USA at 7 p.m. PT, airing Monday on the NHL Network. Check it out if you are so inclined.
Speaking of international tournaments, it will be interesting to see how many Kraken players will participate in the men’s version of the IIHF World Championships in Czechia, which kick off in May. One player expected to represent Denmark is Kraken prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard. I’ve discussed him extensively this year, but this will be an opportunity to see how he fares against a number of NHL players.
The Kansas City Mavericks, the Seattle Kraken’s ECHL affiliate, clinched the Brabham Cup over the weekend, an award given to the top team of the regular season. In full transparency, I had never heard of the Brabham Cup before.
We alluded to it last week, and now it has been confirmed: Jani Nyman is joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
The Everett Silvertips closed out their first-round series against the Vancouver Giants on Sunday. They will face the Portland Winterhawks in the second round, which kicks off on Friday in Portland. The Winterhawks won six of the eight regular-season games between the two teams.
Player performances
Niklas Kokko (PEL/SEA) – Since last Monday, the Kraken goalie prospect won a decisive Game 7 in the opening round of the Liiga playoffs and then won the first two games of the semifinal matchup against his former team, Karpat. He has a .925 save percentage in those two games.
David Goyette (SBY/SEA) – The Kraken’s second-round selection from the 2022 NHL Draft had nine points, including four goals, in the Sudbury Wolves’ first-round series win against the Mississauga Steelheads. The Wolves won the series in five games and will now face Ty Nelson and the North Bay Battalion in Round 2.
Shane Wright (SEA) – We’ve talked about him a lot lately, but he has four points in his three games with the Kraken since he was called up.
Goal of the week
The goal of the week comes from the semifinals of the SHL playoffs, Växjö Lakers vs Rögle BK.
The analytics community has long understood that outhitting an opponent in a hockey game does not necessarily lead to more wins. The overarching idea is that if you’re outhitting an opponent, it likely means you don’t have the puck. Recently, I’ve noticed a broad group of media outlets highlighting hitting as if it were a key component of success on the ice. This has made me somewhat uneasy, so I decided to investigate how well the Kraken perform when outhitting opponents versus being outhit this season.
When the Kraken are “close” with their opponent in terms of the number of hits delivered, or they deliver at least four fewer hits than their opponent, their winning percentage is significantly higher.
The week ahead
The Kraken will play their last two home games this week, taking on the Coyotes on Tuesday and the Sharks on Thursday. Despite the challenges of the past six weeks, I’ll be sad to see the season end. I still love watching the team play, and if it weren’t for the unrealistic expectations created by last year’s team, I would have been content with this season. The Kraken are laying the groundwork to become a perennial playoff contender, rather than a team that gambles too early and risks having to rebuild. In short, while I would have been thrilled to see them in the playoffs, I appreciate the direction they’re heading.
I have a personal backlog of offseason analysis and investigation, but please let me know if there’s anything specific you’d like me to focus on as the season winds down.
The last three games have gone as poorly as possible, and I am in no mood to relive them. The Seattle Kraken playoff odds were long a week ago and got exponentially longer with each of the three losses this week. MoneyPuck gives the Kraken just a two-percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, but I think even that is generous at this point.
I am sure there is some mathematical combination of wins and losses across the two wild card teams and three teams sitting out of the playoff bubble that gives Seattle a two-percent shot at making it through, but it is not going to happen.
Season expectations
At the beginning of the season, if you would have told me the Kraken would finish out of the playoff picture with around 85 points in the standings, I would have thought that sounded about right. Last year’s unsustainable shooting percentage was unlikely to carry over at the same rate this season, especially with limited additions and the notable departures from last season. But truth be told, this is not how we expected this campaign to unfold. The team started ice cold with just three wins in their first 10 games of the season, and except for a brief period in November, the group was clawing to get into the playoff picture all season.
Injuries seemed to plague this team from the start. Brandon Tanev was hurt in Game 1 of the season against Vegas. Andre Burakovsky went down in the sixth game of the season and missed 20 of the next 21 games. Sprinkle in injuries to Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn, Justin Schultz, and even Philipp Grubauer, plus the illness that seemed to destroy the team for a stretch in January, and you start to feel this was not your typical hardship for a team.
Now, injuries are part of the game, and plenty of other teams overcome a similar quantity of injuries. But as much as we say this team’s strength is its depth, that depth only goes as far as about 20 players. Once you dip below those 20, things thin out quickly.
Where can we get some goal scoring?
It has been a theme all season, but the team has struggled to score. The Kraken are 28th in the league in scoring, averaging just 2.68 goals per game. I’ve heard a lot of people and pundits say the Kraken need a high-end goal scorer. Well, no kidding, but you don’t just go out and get a high-end goal scorer. They do not become available, and if they do, you are going to have to overpay and commit too many years to a contract.
I’ve said it before, and I will say it again. Spending on the high-end scorers that reach free agency is risky business. Sam Reinhart will score more than 50 goals this season and could hit free agency this offseason. Do you think Ron Francis should pursue a 28-year-old Reinhart for $10-plus million dollars a year for the next seven years when the forward’s previous high-water mark was 33 goals a season? I don’t.
The best chance at getting that goal scorer is to draft and develop or somehow convince another team to do something idiotic at the trade deadline. This is probably why I am most excited about what Carson Rehkopf could bring in the future. I have talked about him all season and generally think he could have the most potential in the franchise right now to become that high-end goal scorer. There is a long way to go to prove that out, but I am certain he will be given an opportunity to make the team next season.
Rehkopf will be 19 years old at the beginning of 2023-24, and based on the CHL development agreement, if he does not make the NHL roster, he will need to return to the OHL next season.
One bright spot for the Kraken this season has been their defense. I don’t necessarily mean the defenders themselves, but the team defensively as a whole has performed well. A good chunk of the defensive performance attribution needs to go the goalie tandem of Joey Daccord and Grubauer. At .925, the Kraken have the second-highest save percentage of any team since Dec. 1, behind only the tandem of Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit in Winnipeg.
I knew the goalies had been solid but did not expect them to be second in the league over that time span. It sure would be nice to see this trend continue next season.
Other Musings
It is probably stating the obvious, but one player to keep an eye on down this stretch is Ryker Evans. He has been in the lineup since the Vince Dunn injury and will probably get more opportunity even after Dunn comes back. Evans is ahead of schedule in his development. He is one of eight defensemen in the NHL from the 2021 NHL Entry Draft but still needs time to grow and get used to the speed of the top league in the world.
I do expect a few prospects from the Coachella Valley Firebirds to come up before this season is finished. Shane Wright and Ryan Winterton are the obvious players in question (though Wright is close to burning a year of his entry-level contract, so we don’t expect him until the last few games). I also wonder if Logan Morrison or Ville Ottavainen might get an opportunity down the stretch.
The Firebirds are currently second in points across the AHL and are 8-0-1-1 over their last 10 games.
Despite his struggles this season, I still think Andre Burakovsky could be the best pure goal scorer the Kraken have on the roster right now. But he obviously needs to stay healthy. Can he do that through next season?
The Kraken overtime game against Vegas was Seattle’s 18th overtime game of the season, a franchise record. They had 17 overtime games last season and 12 in 2021-22.
I never thought I would say this, but can we not have any Saturday home games next season? The Kraken are now 0-6-2 at Climate Pledge Arena on Saturdays. Lucky for us, the Kraken have only one more Saturday game this season.
Face-off goals against reared its ugly head last week. It happened once against Vegas when Pavel Dorofeyev scored one second after a draw and a second time when Roman Josi scored three seconds after a face-off for the Predators’ third goal on Saturday. On both goals, the issue was not losing the face-off; it was that someone should have challenged the shots.
2-1 VGK's.
Wonky goal there, after Karlsson broke his stick on the face-off. It popped up, and Dorofeyev whacked it before it hit the ice. pic.twitter.com/0T0onlU9ht
Those face-off goals were the seventh and eighth time the Kraken have been scored on within five seconds of a face-off. That is second in the league behind the Tampa Bay Lightning who have allowed 10 face-off goals.
Another ghost from seasons past that showed up this week was the response goal the Kraken allowed to Vegas. After Oliver Bjorkstrand put the Kraken up by two goals with 8:30 left in the third period, the Golden Knights scored less than a minute later to claw within one. Vegas really came to life after that goal, and the rest is sad, season-ending history.
That was the eighth response goal the Kraken have allowed this season, which is about middle of the pack across the league. I don’t have the numbers, but I remember it being much more common in Season 1.
The Kraken are one of four teams without a hat trick scored in a game this season. I would like to see one before the season is done. The only home hat trick in franchise history came against Buffalo in Season 1 when Eberle scored three goals against Buffalo. The Kraken play Buffalo Monday.
I like seeing players’ first career goals, and I love it when they are at home. Ryker Evans has played 21 NHL games and has yet to score a goal.
Player performances
Kole Lind (CVF/SEA) – The Coachella Valley Firebirds winger has a six-game point streak with nine points. It would be nice to see him play some NHL games to close out the season.
Eduard Sale (KIT/SEA) – The Kitchener Ranger has 12 points in his last 10 games with five goals over that span. Sale has underperformed this season in relation to his draft position, so it is great to see him starting to hit his stride.
Jani Nyman (ILV/SEA) – The second-rounder from the 2022 NHL Draft had only one game this week, but he was able to net three power-play goals and 11 shots in Ilves’ regular season finale in Liiga. They are the second seed in the playoffs with their first game of the playoffs on Thursday against KalPa.
Shane Wright is somewhat quietly having quite the rookie year in Coachella Valley.
What to watch for from here on out
After the loss to the Washington Capitals on Thursday night, I came to grips with the reality that these remaining Kraken games will not mean much in the playoff picture. My mind immediately started to wonder how I would watch the remaining games of the season. I am excited to watch and enjoy seeing Seattle win when it can, but with the playoff hopes out the window, I need some additional narratives to look out for.
The first thing I am excited about is to see the Kraken play the spoiler against Western Conference playoff bubble teams. They have four games remaining against these bubble teams, all road games. They play Vegas next week and will face Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Minnesota in April. The biggest game will be this coming Thursday where the Kraken will look to disrupt the Golden Knights’ playoff expectations. It won’t ease the pain we received from Vegas’ last-second heroics at Climate Pledge on Tuesday, but it might give us something to smile about for the evening.
Additionally, I am excited to see which prospects get the call-up and how they compete on the big stage. We saw Wright and Winterton log three games in November, but I have to imagine they are even more prepared now with several more months of AHL games under their belt. Are there any others that might get the call?
Programing note. There will be no Monday Musings next week. My weekend is packed, and with a Sunday-evening home game, it is unlikely I will be able to carve out the time needed to produce anything worth reading.
If you have any questions or want me to dig into certain topics for the following week, let me know in the comments, and I will do my best get back to you or add to my backlog of research.
With the Kraken still in the midst of their long All-Star/bye week hiatus, there has not been much action since the last edition of Monday Musings. So this week I am going to dig into a few topics I have been wanting to look at for a while but haven’t had the time, instead of re-reacting to the Seattle Kraken loss to the Sharks last Tuesday. If you’re here looking for that, you can listen to last week’s episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. Spoiler: you will probably be underwhelmed by my non-emotionally charged response.
Shane Wright’s progress
I have talked to a few people about how Shane Wright has been performing in Coachella Valley. What I’ve heard is that those who have a critical eye for hockey talent seem to be impressed with how he is progressing. There will always be questions on how skill and production in the AHL translate to the NHL, but you want to see some stand-out qualities while young prospects are playing in the AHL. Shane is showing these stand-out qualities.
There are a couple areas I wanted to look at with regard to Shane’s game. First, how does his production compare to other forwards that played in the AHL at his age? Second, how is he trending? Is he getting better as the season progresses?
One area of note, getting advanced(ish) data from the AHL without buying an expensive stats package from a third-party provider is a challenge, so take all this analysis with a grain of salt.
From this basic analysis, it appears that Wright is scoring goals at the top end of his peer group, with .44 goals per game so far this season. Again, it is not a perfect analysis for projecting future results in the NHL, but we must be happy with the direction this is headed.
Shane Wright in-season trends
To take a stab at evaluating if Shane is getting better, I just created a moving average of shots, points, and goals. Ideally, we would have something like expected goals that would be generated by using shot location and events, but the AHL isn’t as lucky to have a rich analytics community that evaluates play-by-play data and runs it through a model to produce such metrics. Goals and points are obvious indicators of success on the ice, but I added shots to see if Wright has been generating more shots per game as the season progresses.
The chart is rather inconclusive. There was a sag in Wright’s points and goal production between games 20 and 28 with only a slight dip in shots during that same time span. Point production and goals seem to be rebounding lately, but both are roughly on par with where Wright was producing toward the beginning of the season.
One thing that is not available is time on ice and more specifically time on ice by game scenario (power play, penalty kill, etc.). Shane is on the power play and penalty kill, which is great to see, but we can’t break out the data to show that.
Here is a video from Saturday night. The clip does not do the play justice, but Wright was killing a penalty, stole the puck from the Tucson player, and charged down the ice to find a streaking Ryan Winterton as the penalty expired.
Overall, I think we should be excited with how Shane is developing into the two-way center he was billed as when the Kraken drafted him fourth overall in 2022.
Kraken scoring
It is obvious that one of the biggest challenges for the Seattle Kraken this year has been scoring goals. Part of this has been driven by injuries, and part of it has been a natural regression to a more normal shooting percentage after last year’s torrid pace.
There have been positive signs that the shooting percentage has been rebounding a bit. The Kraken’s shooting percentage has been 11.3 percent over the last 20 games. This topic warrants a deep dive on the scoring this season, so expect a Data Dump on that later this week.
Other Musings
We have seen two big trades over the last five days that both involved a first-round draft pick as part of the trade, in exchange for a center. You must figure other teams looking for a center are calling Ron Francis to see what it would take to get pending unrestricted free agent, Alexander Wennberg. In my opinion, Wennberg is on par with Sean Monahan, who just fetched a first-round pick in 2024 and a conditional third-round pick in 2027. With that market set, until the Kraken are squarely out of the playoff race, you don’t move Wennberg for anything less than a first.
If the Kraken trade Wennberg, the departure of his versatility will leave a huge hole in the lineup. He plays on the power play and penalty kill and leads Kraken forwards in total time on ice, averaging 18:42 per game.
It was exciting to hear the news about NHL players returning to the Olympics. Those tournaments have brought so much excitement for the game in the past. The Kraken have several players who have played in past Olympics, including Matty Beniers, Eeli Tolvanen, and Tomas Tatar. Will Borgen was also named to Team USA in 2018 but did not play a game.
If you need a local hockey fix, you might want to tune into the AHL All-Star Game airing on NHL Network Monday. There are a lot of former Seattle Thunderbirds and Everett Silvertips playing in the game: Brad Lambert, Jake Christiansen, Gage Goncalves, Dustin Wolf, Olen Zellweger, and Dylan Guenther were all named to the game, plus the Seattle Kraken’s own Ryker Evans will be there.
Player performances
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard – One of the Kraken’s second-round selections in last summer’s NHL Entry Draft, Molgaard has nine points in his last 10 games playing for HV71 in the top-tier league in Sweden. Prior to those 10 games, he had seven points over his first 27 games of the season. We chatted with Oscar back in July.
Tyson Jugnauth – A fourth-round draft pick of the Kraken from 2022, Jugnauth has 24 points in 22 games for the Portland Winterhawks. He started the season with the Wisconsin Badgers but only had two assists in 13 games. He left school midseason to play for Portland, and I am pretty sure he has no regrets leaving Wisconsin (he explained his decision to leave in a Sound Of Hockey story here).
Niklas Kokko – The Finnish goaltender has two wins in his last three starts playing for Pelicans, his new team in Liiga. He has a .947 save percentage in that span.
Goal of the week
we can’t play it here but Lithium came on after Bjorkstrand’s goal & it was beautiful 🥹 pic.twitter.com/7lzo7AcMzh
The Kraken return to action on Saturday in Philadelphia. The Flyers dropped their last five games with a goal differential of 27-13 but have two games before they take on Seattle. Expect some rust for the Kraken coming out of the long break (last year they lost their first three games after the All-Star break).
Thanks to reader/listener ‘Yanni’s Suffocating Pestilence,’ who gave me a homework assignment after last week’s Musings. Expect some of those findings in the next edition.
If you have any thoughts or areas of exploration, feel free to leave a comment, and I will add it to the backlog.
In a recent interview, Seattle Kraken content contributor and Emmy-winning journalist Alison Lukan asked Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis for his impressions about this year’s Coachella Valley Firebirds beyond what we could find on a stat sheet. Francis answered by pointing to a youth movement.
Probably the biggest thing I think is that we were one of the oldest teams in the league last year, maybe top three oldest teams in the league. This year, we’re one of the younger teams. (We have) a lot of young players. It’s a very good league and you start throwing 19-, 20-, 21-year-old kids into that league and it’s challenging.
So the fact that they’ve not only been able to tread water, but excel has been exciting for us to watch.
In October, we noted that last year’s Firebirds team was the fifth-oldest team in the AHL according to data tabulated by Elite Prospects. At the time we eagerly anticipated the beginning of a youth movement with several 2022 drafted players (plus Shane Wright and Logan Morrision) arriving in the AHL for the first time. But we noted that it would be two more years before the “prospect pipeline” was full, and the team still projected to be 10th oldest in the AHL according to Elite Prospects.
At the midway point in the season, and in light of Francis’s comments, we thought it would be a good time to check in on Seattle’s young players in Coachella Valley and how the team’s depth stacks up against the rest of the league.
First, we looked at the average age of the players on all AHL rosters. We used age and game data from Elite Prospects to calculate an average roster age weighted by games played. We found that the Firebirds are the 15th-youngest team in the AHL, almost precisely in the middle of the 32-team league. The newly “independent” Chicago Wolves were (by far) the oldest team, as might be expected since they are not drawing on a prospect pool in the same way as other teams.
So, it seems the Firebirds aren’t one of the league’s youngest teams. But average age of an AHL roster is probably less indicative of whether the team is cultivating young talent than the number of games played by true developmental-age prospects–players young enough to still be on the ascent in their expected production curves.
For the purpose of this exercise I used “under 22” as my cutoff. (If a player was 21 at any point during the 2023-24 AHL season, I counted them as “under 22.”) This is a somewhat arbitrary cutoff, but it aligns with aging curves, as well as Francis’s reference to “19-, 20-, 21-year-old kids.”
Here are the Firebirds that qualify:
The list and production seems solid, headlined by Seattle’s No. 1 prospect, Shane Wright, but let’s put it in context. First, let’s take a look at how the games played by these players stacks up around the AHL (based on data pulled mid-week last week).
Here, we start to see what Francis was getting at. While the Firebirds are in the middle of the pack (tied for 13th) in terms of total number of U22 players with at least one game played, Coachella Valley has the fifth-most total games played by U22 players. Now, let’s take a look at where the team’s U22 players rank in terms of point production in the AHL.
The Firebirds have the fourth-most points scored by U22 players in the AHL. Broken down further to show goal scoring specifically, we see that the Firebirds’ young players have been racking up points more than all but a few teams.
In an effort to account for team context, I also calculated the percentage of a team’s total scoring point production that had been scored by U22 players. I found that Coachella Valley’s U22 players accounted for the fifth-highest percentage of a team’s total scoring. Another way of looking at this is to compare scoring points by U22 players versus the scoring points by the remainder of an AHL team:
Here we see that Coachella Valley’s 22-and-older players are scoring in the bottom half of the league, whereas, again, the young players are among the league’s most productive.
I was curious if the Firebirds’ young players skewed toward the older end of the U22 age range but found that the opposite was true. Among U22 players, the Firebirds group was the sixth-youngest on average.
Finally, I wanted to know how these young players were performing beyond just their scoring points. Unfortunately, the AHL does not make game event data available to the public, so play-related analytics are very hard to come by. One crude measure, on-ice plus-minus, is calculable though. It has many flaws as a statistic, but it does tell us something (at least directionally) about how these players are faring when they’re on the ice. The results are certainly interesting.
Here, we see that the Firebirds U22 players are right there at the top of the league in cumulative plus-minus. In other words, the Firebirds aren’t struggling while these young players are on the ice; to the contrary. In fact, if we compare U22 cumulative plus-minus against the cumulative plus-minus of the remainder of the team, we find that the young players are on the ice for much of the Firebirds’ positive play.
There are certainly confounding factors, such as quality of competition and quality of teammates that I’d like to analyze but can’t, given the available data. In any event, these results are at least consistent with the conclusion that Seattle’s U22 players are not only scoring, they are delivering a two-way game at the AHL level.
While the results are encouraging, we would caution against interpreting these results as a type of “ranking” of team U22 prospect pools, though. Of course, this doesn’t capture players playing in junior or foreign leagues. And, most importantly, it doesn’t capture the best U22 players who have already established themselves at the NHL level. For example, if Shane Wright had proven he was ready for the NHL last year, he likely wouldn’t be in the AHL and accumulating statistics as a U22 player for the Firebirds.
(As an aside, we tested what the production of each AHL roster would be if we assumed the highest-producing U22 AHL player on each team were on an NHL roster instead, and the Firebirds still measured up favorably. The Firebirds would have the third-most U22 points in the league in this counterfactual scenario.)
Nevertheless, as Francis said, there is certainly a youth movement afoot in Palm Desert. And there is reason to be excited about what those players might do in a Kraken uniform in the years to come.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
