After the Seattle Kraken played Games 1 and 2 of their second-round series against the Stars in Dallas, the NHL playoff schedule granted them a rare two-day break before Game 3 in Seattle. This feels like a perfect time to reflect on what transpired in those first two contests in another installment of the Kraken Roundtable.
Our contributors, John Barr, Darren Brown, Josh Horton, and Curtis Isacke, put their heads together to discuss what they’ve learned and how the Kraken can win this series against the Stars.
Who is your unsung hero of the playoffs for the Kraken?
Darren Brown: Well the “sung” hero is obviously Philipp Grubauer, who has been dazzling through nine playoff games and has given his team a chance to win every game. But since the question is “unsung” hero, I’m going to go with Jaden Schwartz.
Schwartz is so fun to watch on the forecheck and in the offensive zone, and he has seemed to find another gear to his game in the postseason. He so far has three goals and three assists, but it’s not just the points he has contributed that has earned him the “unsung hero” award in my eyes; it’s the way he pursues pucks in the offensive zone, blocks shots, and does everything he can to create opportunities for his linemates.
Remember, Schwartz had 20 points in the playoffs the year the Blues won the Stanley Cup, and that is no coincidence. He is a playoff performer, and he is showing it for the Kraken.
Josh Horton: For the entirety of the season, but especially in the playoffs, Adam Larsson stands out. He eats a ton of minutes and does a lot of little things that can turn narrow losses into narrow wins.
John Barr: Morgan Geekie. After playing center all season, Geekie was slotted as a wing with Schwartz and Wennberg a couple weeks before the end of the season. His stats do not jump off the screen, but he has scored a couple big goals in key victories for the Kraken this playoff run and is generating scoring opportunities in his elevated role. Since Jared McCann went out, coach Dave Hakstol has also started to deploy Geekie on the power play, and I would not be surprised if he finds the net again in the next two games.
Curtis Isacke: Good answers, gang. I’ll go a bit off the board and say Justin Schultz. He has two goals and two assists through nine games. During his five-on-five minutes, he is top-five on the team in expected goals for percentage and leads the team with a +7 goal differential. The Kraken are +2 in goal differential with Schultz on the ice on the power play, and he leads the team in expected goal percentage with the man advantage among players with at least six minutes of power play time. Overall, he is first among Kraken blueliners in individual expected goals created per sixty minutes.
Of course, Yanni Gourde deserves as much praise as can be heaped on him for the job he did shadowing Nathan MacKinnon versus the Avalanche. But since his praises have rightfully been sung, I went with Schultz. Schultz is on the opposite extreme from Gourde in terms of on-ice exposure and degree of difficulty. He has seen much easier matchups, and he is fifth of six in total ice time for Kraken blueliners. But “easy” matchups are favorable only if the team actually converts those chances, and Schultz has delivered. In doing so, he has been a (somewhat surprising) positive for the team during this run.
What did we learn in Games 1 and 2?
JH: We learned the Kraken’s forecheck is for real and that Dave Hakstol deserves his flowers.
Some were uninspired by Hakstol’s hiring before last season, and he received heat from fans early on as the team found its footing. But what he’s done implementing an ultra-disruptive defensive system that not only causes absolute chaos for the opponent, but complements the personnel perfectly, has been the difference in the Kraken emerging as contenders for the Stanley Cup Final and avoiding a token first-round exit in their second season.
The forecheck is helping to produce offense at five-on-five, and Seattle is jumping out in front of teams because of it. What’s more, the Kraken aren’t sitting on their heels and trying to nurse those leads. It’s another testament to Hakstol, not only installing an effective system, but instilling a general attitude of staying on the gas instead of running out the clock.
JB: We learned that the Kraken’s depth in the regular season can translate to playoff success.
All season long the strength of the Kraken has been their depth, but without a comparable team in recent history, it was never clear if it was going to translate to playoff success. The Kraken had 15 unique goal scorers in Round 1 and five different players scored in Game 1 against the Stars. It has to be challenging for opposing coaches to figure out how to match lines when you never know what line will get going next.
CI: The Kraken do not have the skill to keep pace in a back-and-forth, wide-open game against Dallas. To survive, the Kraken need to play their forechecking scheme fast and clean to keep Dallas hemmed into its own zone. When well executed, this “best defense is a good offense” approach limits the volume of rush chances going the other way and reduces the five-on-five possession time in the Kraken zone.
Equally important, Seattle needs to keep its discipline and avoid confounding, needless penalties. If Dallas gets three-plus power play chances a game, it will be very difficult for Seattle to keep pace because the Stars are lethal on the man advantage.
It will take all eighteen skaters playing connected, structured hockey to win three more against this talented Dallas squad.
DB: I think the Kraken got tired. Their system is aggressive and requires them to play fast and on their toes to be successful. After riding adrenaline and the emotional high of their Game 7 win in Denver to get them through Game 1, they didn’t have the same jump in Game 2. They weren’t on the Dallas defenders instantaneously in Game 2 like they were in Game 1, and once they took a couple penalties, they were cooked.
Two days off couldn’t have come at a better time.
What is the biggest surprise of Round 2 so far?
CI: Tye Kartye’s strong performance in this series continues to surprise. He has been on the ice for two Kraken goals for and zero goals against. (Overall in the playoffs it is four goals for and zero against.) This success is supported by a strong shot quality disparity while he is out there; he leads the team with 75.69 percent expected goals for percentage during his 26:07 time on ice in the series.
The eye test (as measured by these eyes) has been equally complimentary. He is playing at full speed, using his body to protect the puck or separate others from it, and his wrist shot looks NHL-caliber. He has made a few questionable decisions with the puck in the defensive zone, and the team has sheltered his minutes late in games and in clear defensive situations, but it is hard not to be impressed with the 22-year-old rookie.
JH: Kartye stood out to me, too, Curtis.
In the interest of originality, Jason Robertson’s quiet series has really caught me off guard. The Stars don’t profile as the splashiest team, but the young talents like Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, and Roope Hintz have lured me into watching a few Stars games this year. Those other guys have been noticeable, but Robertson really hasn’t. I think Dallas needs to get him going as the series pivots to Seattle.
DB: This may sound a bit cocky, but I don’t think this is as tough a matchup for the Kraken as Colorado was. That’s the opposite of what I thought coming in, because Dallas has more balance than the Avs, so I expected Dallas to scare me more than the Avalanche’s two-line team. The high-end skill of the Stars isn’t nearly as terrifying as that of the Avalanche, though, and the Kraken showed in Game 1 that their style of play–when they have their legs under them–can keep them in games with Dallas and even give them a good chance to win the series.
JB: I am not sure if it is really a surprise, but Matty Beniers has been very quiet over the last few games. He has been playing fine but not having those breakout moments that we were accustomed to seeing during the regular season. Part of that might be the elevated physicality of the playoffs, and part of it might be Dallas keying in on Matty to limit his chances.
What will be the key to the Kraken advancing past Round 2?
CI: As mentioned above, limiting Dallas’s power-play opportunities is of paramount importance. So far, Grubauer has been the team’s best answer during manpower disadvantages. He has saved almost four goals above expected on the penalty kill during this playoff run, per Natural Stat Trick. But the team cannot necessarily rely on that to continue. The skaters in front of Grubauer need to do a better job avoiding penalties and suppressing shot quality when penalties do occur.
In this matchup, Seattle needs to find a way to disrupt Dallas’s high-to-low passes, which get the puck down near the goal line in a threatening position to either directly create a scoring chance or pull the second layer of Kraken defenders out of position for a return pass to the slot.
I am tempted to say the Kraken should try to get more width in their defensive structure to dissuade these attempts, but this would open the slot player for more tips and shots. Instead, Seattle’s top layer defender may need to get more aggressive pressuring the strong-side puck carrier and, in tandem, the strong-side defender in the second layer of the diamond must be ready to get back down toward the goal earlier to anticipate and disrupt these plays.
JB: Parlaying on Curtis’s comments above, the Kraken will need to minimize the power play opportunities for Dallas. The penalty kill has been outstanding during the playoffs, but being shorthanded seems to really disrupt the flow and momentum for the Kraken and makes the impact of penalties greater than the two minutes they are at a disadvantage. During the playoffs, when the Kraken have had to kill three or more penalties in a game, their win-loss record is just 1-3. Meanwhile the Stars are 4-1 when getting three or more power play opportunities.
DB: Agreed, penalties are a big deal, but beyond that, the Kraken need to stay on their toes. They had a good first period going in Thursday’s Game 2 but eased off the pedal once they got into penalty trouble. When they play on their heels and allow their opposition to gain momentum, it seems to be tough for the Kraken to slow things down, especially as the fatigue of the postseason continues to take its toll.
The Kraken are at their best when the opposition has no time and space to make breakout passes or to rush through the neutral zone. Once they ease off even a little, things go sideways.
JH: Philipp Grubauer has been fantastic and has silenced a lot of haters this postseason. With the Kraken’s lack of top-end firepower and their aggressive style of play, it will be imperative Grubauer continues to make key saves to keep the Kraken in games.
Perhaps Dave Hakstol’s disdainful post-game comments about Cale Makar’s late hit on Jared McCann got through to the NHL’s Department of Player Safety. Makar was given a hearing by the league’s disciplinary arm Tuesday, and he was assessed a one-game suspension.
“It’s a late hit, where the puck is out of play,” Hakstol said after the game. “Canner shoots that puck, it goes immediately out of play, straight up into the netting… I believe the puck is being caught by a fan as Canner is being run into the end wall. So, late hit; really late, no puck in play.”
Hakstol also confirmed that the injury sustained by McCann on the play would keep Seattle’s 40-goal scorer out for at least Game 5, and probably longer.
The fateful hit came about nine minutes into the first period. With the Kraken killing a questionable penalty call on Yanni Gourde, Matty Beniers sprung McCann on a shorthanded breakaway after a stretch pass. McCann got stopped by Alexandar Georgiev, then watched the puck deflect up over the glass for a stoppage. He was paying no attention to Makar and wasn’t bracing for any kind of hit, being that there was simply no reason for him to take contact in that moment. The play was over, and a good three seconds had elapsed since the shot had been taken.
But Makar decided to violently slam McCann into the wall, causing him to hit his head on both the glass and the ice. McCann was down for an extended period, then helped to the bench and down the tunnel.
The on-ice officials didn’t appear to be calling any penalty initially. They then huddled, assessed a five-minute major, and went to the penalty box to review the call. After review, they lowered the penalty to a two-minute minor, a power play on which the Kraken did convert for Daniel Sprong’s goal.
Still, the punishment doled out by the refs was clearly insufficient, considering the damage Makar had done. Good on the Department of Player Safety for looking into it and giving supplementary discipline for Makar’s actions, even if the severity of the sentence is up for debate.
Colorado’s Cale Makar has been suspended for one playoff game for Interference against Seattle’s Jared McCann. https://t.co/FOhsme51Rf
“It is important to note that McCann is in no way eligible to be checked on this play,” the department said in its decision video. “Makar finishes this hit well outside the allowable window for finishing this check. In addition, it is clear that Makar knows McCann is not in possession of the puck when he decides to deliver this hit.”
Makar became the villain in an instant
Makar, the ultra-skilled defenseman, is not known for dirty play or attempting to injure players. In the eyes of Kraken fans, though, he is suddenly public enemy No. 1, made clear by their incessant booing every time Makar touched the puck in Game 4. Heck, at times, the crowd even booed Makar just for stepping onto the ice.
In what had been a relatively tame series through Game 3, Makar’s poor decision turned things in a nasty direction, and we are confident it will continue that way for the remainder.
Ironically, Makar will be back in the lineup just in time for Game 6, the last home game of the series for the Kraken, whose fans will surely be ready to taunt No. 8 at the drop of a hat.
Is one game enough?
If McCann ends up missing the remainder of the series, then a single game for Makar feels light, but there is context to consider. First, Makar has no history of fines or suspensions, which does weigh into disciplinary decisions. Second, the weight of suspending a player for a playoff game is far more significant than doing so in the regular season, so a playoff game is generally viewed as equivalent to two regular-season games.
Given the violent and unnecessary nature of the hit, we would have liked to see a second game handed out to Makar. But the department is also known for its inconsistency, so the fact they gave any kind of suspension should be a small consolation for Kraken fans.
Makar being banished from Game 5 is also a big deal, perhaps even bigger than McCann not being able to participate, at least for that contest. The reigning Norris Trophy winner is one third of Colorado’s three-headed monster, made up of Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen. He had a huge offensive impact on Game 3 and is sure to factor in again when he returns from the timeout turtle. Only having to look out for Colorado’s two dynamic forwards for a game, and not their star blueliner, should make things significantly easier on the defensive side of the puck for Seattle.
Even so, Hakstol and his players would also like to have their top goal scorer for the rest of the series, and that is suddenly looking highly doubtful.
We know these can be highly contentious topics, but what do you think of this outcome, folks? Let us know in the comments (but be nice to each other, please).
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
It’s here, it’s here! It’s finally here! The first home playoff game in the history of the Seattle Kraken will be played Saturday night at Climate Pledge Arena.
The excitement from Kraken players was palpable at morning skate at Kraken Community Iceplex, where Seattle appeared to be working through some slight tactical adjustments to the power play and executing quick transitions through the neutral zone.
One housekeeping item, Morgan Geekie was not on the ice for the session, but coach Dave Hakstol said it was a maintenance day. That indicates Geekie should be good to assume his spot on the wing next to Jaden Schwartz and Alex Wennberg, but we will keep an eye on that in warmups.
Jesper Froden took Geekie’s spot in line rushes and did not stay out with the healthy scratches for extra work at the end of practice. He normally would continue skating if he was not planning to be in the lineup, so we thought that was worth noting.
Colorado’s personnel changes in Game 2
One thing we found interesting in Game 2 was Avalanche coach Jared Bednar’s decision to split up Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon. It seemed to work, at least for that game, but the idea that Bednar felt the need to counter what Seattle brought with its depth in Game 1 went against the narrative coming into the series. While everyone was asking what Seattle could do to stop Colorado’s high-octane attack, nobody expected Bednar to be tinkering after one game, trying to find a way to make his big guns more effective against the Kraken.
“I think it’s just a different look for them,” said Ryan Donato. “If anything, it spreads out— I mean, those two guys together are very dynamic. So I think there’s strengths for them being together and strengths for them not being together, but for us, it doesn’t change anything.”
Eeli Tolvanen added that having them on the same line makes them very dynamic, but with the duo split apart, it means there’s one of the two on the ice almost all the time. “I think you have to be more careful on line changes and all that because they’re not playing the same line,” said Tolvanen, who is celebrating his 24th birthday Saturday. “I feel like they’re going to be on the ice for more, but I think all our lines are doing a good job defensively. So it doesn’t matter who’s out there.”
Hakstol echoed Tolvanen’s sentiments. Although being at home gives Hakstol the advantage of the last change before face-offs, he says the team won’t be overly hung up on which line is out there at any given time.
“We’ve never been a big line matchup team, if you look at it historically throughout the year,” Hakstol said. “There’ll be some of that. Being at home allows you to get some matchups, it allows you to avoid some matchups. But like I said, we haven’t been a hard match team all year, and we’re not going to start now.”
While the Avalanche have been tinkering with their lines, the Kraken have tried to stay focused on themselves and only change things if they fit better to their strengths. “It’s still about what adjustments we can make that make us more effective,” said Hakstol. “It’s not just about the adjustments; if you’re not good at something, you’re not going to adjust to that. So it’s finding adjustments that fit your game, that fit the opportunity.”
Kraken players expect an electric atmosphere
The atmosphere in Climate Pledge Arena has been fantastic all season long, but we are expecting some big-time goosebump moments on Saturday. Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke said last week there’s a new pre-game show coming for the playoffs, and we know a plaza party will be happening outside. So, the organization is doing what it can to bolster the excitement, but it will be the crowd that should hoist this game into “unforgettable” status.
“I think it’s going to be awesome,” said Tolvanen. “The whole regular season it was really loud. Everybody showed up; the fans did a really good job in the regular season. So [with the] playoffs, I think there’s going to be a notch more, and I think everybody’s really excited about it.”
We had boots on the ground around Climate Pledge to scope out what was getting set up over there, and we can confirm there will be a beer garden with TV’s for earlier playoff games and for people who want to come experience the atmosphere that don’t have tickets to the game.
Inside, Tolvanen says he’s hoping the home faithful will bring a similar jolt to what Colorado’s fans brought in Game 2. “I think it’s going to boost us,” Tolvanen said. “They got momentum last game out of their fans; they did a really good job of that, and I think we have to take advantage of that today. The fans are going to be behind us, and I think all the support and all the energy we can get out of them, I think we have to use it to our advantage.”
While Tolvanen is hoping the fans push the team forward, Donato wants the players to give their fanbase plenty of reasons to cheer. “I’m looking forward to getting there and seeing them all there,” he said. “They’ve been great all year; now it’s our turn to return the favor by winning a playoff series, hopefully.”
By the way, we heard from a source within the organization that players have been quietly campaigning to get the crowd on the same page with a massively loud “SEA” at the beginning of the Star-Spangled Banner. So, for those in attendance, it’s “O, say can you SEA!”
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
One key to the Seattle Kraken’s success in this second year has been the team’s ability to recognize its shortcomings and improve in season. While other examples certainly exist—like three-on-three overtime, for one—the best illustration of this self-improvement is Seattle’s marked amelioration of the penalty kill.
We can pinpoint when the turnaround began. It was Dec. 31. The Kraken took the ice for practice at Kraken Community Iceplex looking downtrodden. They had just gotten smoked by the Edmonton Oilers the night before, 7-2 on home ice. Two of the goals against had come on Edmonton power plays, and at that point in the season, it was painfully obvious that something needed to change in how the team was approaching these four-on-five situations. The Kraken PK had dropped to 31st in the league, succeeding just 67.9 percent of the time. Goals were coming almost at will for opposing teams.
At that New Year’s Eve practice, the penalty kill took on a new look, and since that day, a dramatic turnaround has taken place. For the season as a whole, Seattle’s PK is still just 22nd in the league, nothing to write home about. But it has improved by 8.3 percent to a 76.2 percent success rate through 79 games. And if you break that down to just the 2023 calendar year, Jan. 1 through April 10, Seattle has a 83.9 percent success rate, good for fifth in the NHL in that stretch.
“It’s a different look,” said coach Dave Hakstol. “The first half of the year, we were coming out with a lot of top-down pressure—there’s still a little bit of that—but this just fits the personnel that we’re using much better to their skill sets. And it’s been a good change.”
Sound Of Hockey talked to Morgan Geekie and Yanni Gourde, two key players in the penalty kill at different stages of the season, as well as Hakstol to take you inside the changes that have transpired for the Kraken.
The old system
The system Seattle was using to start the season was the aggressive “wedge plus one,” which typically looked something like this:
Image from Jack Han’s “Hockey Tactics 2023,” a must-buy for fans looking to understand more about the systems and tactics being used by teams across the NHL.
In this system, the three players around the net stay relatively compact, while the player at the top, noted as F1, flies around the top of the zone, trying to disrupt passes. If he gets pulled too far to one side, he and F2 are supposed to quickly rotate to keep pressure on the power play quarterback at the top of the zone and to keep seams across the middle closed.
Geekie says the team called the old system the “toilet bowl.” Assuming the puck is at the top of the zone, F1 would go after the power play quarterback and push him to one side or the other. “If he’s a right-handed shot, he’ll be shaded to the left side. So the left-side guy will go and push him towards the wall, basically encouraging him to pass it to the half wall.”
From there, if the puck goes back up to the top, that’s when the rotation would happen, as F1 takes the spot F2 previously held, and now F2 is at the top. Or, as Geekie explained it: “If [the other team] somehow gets it back up to the top, the forward that pushed down will come underneath, and the other forward on the far side will just assume the first position and go back up to the top. And so it’s basically just spinning and spinning and spinning.”
Get it? It’s like a toilet bowl.
That sounds simple enough, so why didn’t it work for Seattle? Well, apparently there’s a lot of room for error in that system.
“Where you get mixed up is if one guy pushes, or the other guy pushes too early, it opens up the whole seam underneath,” said Geekie. “Or if you push too late, it opens up the high seam, and the guy on the half wall can walk down. And then if you push too far, then it goes back up to the top, you can walk all the way in.”
Geekie explained that killing penalties like that works well for some teams, but it depends on the personnel. He said that’s how his former team, the Carolina Hurricanes, killed penalties when he was there, and they did so successfully. But the Kraken just couldn’t ever seem to get the rhythm down.
Gourde put the challenges of the wedge-plus-one system in simpler terms. “There’s way more switches, there’s way more reads, I think, than [what we’re doing now]. If the puck’s in the middle of the ice, [and you get beat], the other guy flexes to the other two. If the pass stays on the outside, then the same guy attacks. So all those rotations, where you make reads, it’s a little bit harder.”
With so many moving parts, it was all too common for Kraken penalty killers to get crossed up in those earlier months of the season. And the second that happened, the puck seemed to end up in the back of the net almost every night. A change was desperately needed.
The new system
We thought we were pretty smart when we called for a simplified penalty kill on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, just days before the late-December change was implemented by the club. What Seattle switched to then, and is still using now, looks more like this:
Image from Jack Han’s “Hockey Tactics 2023,” a must-buy for fans looking to understand more about the systems and tactics being used by teams across the NHL.
It’s a more passive system that focuses on keeping the puck to the perimeter and blocking shots, as opposed to trying to disrupt passes before shots can even be taken.
“What we’re doing right now is more straight-line, always flexing back to the middle of the ice to prevent any seam,” said Gourde, who has been a mainstay on the PK all season. “You stay in your shooting lane more often, so if you get beat by one pass, there’s always one guy that kind of is in a good spot to help you out.”
Gourde explained that the penalty killers all keep their backs to the middle of the ice, and there are trigger points that tell them when to pressure the puck. Once those triggers happen—usually when the puck gets along the wall—they pounce to try to force mistakes.
The players still read off each other, and they may rotate slightly as a unit, but it’s rare to see players actually swap positions in the more traditional four-man box formation. This simplifies things compared to the previous system and minimizes the potential for missed assignments and misreads.
The change has worked wonders, and the numbers bear that out. On a 10-game rolling basis, the Kraken spent most of the first 45 games well below the league average, but they now sit among the best teams in the NHL as we approach the playoffs.
Jared McCann has been the x-factor
In addition to the systematic change, Seattle also adjusted the personnel it was using to kill penalties. The most obvious alteration was the inclusion of Jared McCann, who has become a lynchpin to Seattle’s success in this area, despite not having the traditional penalty killer profile.
Gourde, who has been partnered with McCann for most of the second half of the season, says its McCann’s speed, good stick, and ability to read the play that make him successful. He also says McCann’s offensive ability can keep opposing power plays honest, because they know if they turn the puck over to McCann, he can quickly make them pay.
“Every time we see a loose puck, we know he’s jumping, I know I’m jumping,” said Gourde. “So we create a little bit of something out there, and we’re super aggressive on those walls. When you’re aggressive, it’s an easier read for everybody.”
Improving is “what you’re supposed to do”
Hakstol gave credit for the successful changes to his assistant coach, Dave Lowry, who oversees the penalty kill for the Kraken, and to the players on the team.
“That’s what you’re supposed to do, right?” Hakstol said. “You have to evolve in the areas, you have to address areas that aren’t going well. And whether it’s a systems change or a change in the way the players are executing or a combination of the two really doesn’t matter. I mean, you address it honestly and look for a solution. In that case, it was a very good solution. Dave worked really hard on it, the players have worked really hard on it.”
But Hakstol isn’t satisfied with the improvement the team has made. As Seattle heads toward its first playoff appearance, he calls the penalty kill “an area we can still continue to keep building; we’re still working at it.”
This is it, folks! The Seattle Kraken are on the precipice of history with an opportunity to clinch their first berth in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. All they need to do is beat the lowly Coyotes–the same team they dispatched 8-1 just a few days ago–and they are officially in.
We thought it was a great time to do a roundtable discussion on the season that has been for the Kraken, their chances in the playoffs, and more.
Our own Curtis Isacke, John Barr, Josh Horton, and Darren Brown (that’s me!) put our heads together for some fun banter.
Enjoy!
How can the Kraken elevate their game for the playoffs?
Darren Brown: A week ago, I would have said figuring out how to score on the power play, but the Kraken have been hot in that area recently, thanks in large part to Daniel Sprong, who is oozing confidence right now. Seattle has scored power-play goals in four straight games.
So, instead, I’ll say get Andre Burakovsky back. It’s not so much that Burakovsky is an irreplaceable superstar, but the Kraken specifically don’t have the horses to effectively replace a top-six forward. Plus, the trickle down effect of not having him in the lineup has been immense. He did participate with the team on Monday for the first time since his injury on Feb. 7.
John Barr: I think getting Burakovsky back would be huge for the Kraken as well. But aside from that, the Kraken will need to continue to snuff out the shooting opportunities for the opponent. No matter how you measure it, the Kraken have been extremely stingy over the last seven games allowing season lows in shots against, Corsi against, and Fenwick against. Part of this might be due to the weakness of the opponents in this stretch, but if they can maintain this stingy defense, they can raise their level in the playoffs.
Josh Horton: A hot hand. The Kraken have excelled offensively this year by committee, but I think if someone set the playoffs on fire, it would be a massive advantage for Seattle.
Will it be Jared McCann, who has bagged 37 goals this year? Or could it be wunderkind Matty Beniers? What about Jordan Eberle, a veteran with playoff experience? No matter who it is, I think getting a guy on a heater at the right time would be huge.
Curtis Isacke: Getting Burakovsky back will help, but the Kraken need to be brutally honest about what has and has not worked with their personnel groupings.
For much of the season while Burakovsky was healthy, the team deployed Burakovsky, Alex Wennberg, and a third linemate (most frequently Jaden Schwartz) to matchup against the top lines from the competition. The results were not good enough offensively. The Burakovsky-Wennberg-Schwartz line created just 2.12 expected goals per sixty minutes of even-strength ice time, while conceding 2.37 expected goals. And the actual on-ice results were worse; the team scored five goals with those three on the ice at even strength and allowed 12 goals against.
In contrast, the Beniers line and the Gourde line have dominated their matchups offensively and defensively, both in terms of goal differential and expected goal differential. Those lines have the defensive chops to hold up against stronger competition and have offensive tactics that could very well translate against top lines too.
I think the Beniers line should be trusted with the bulk of these tougher assignments during the run of play. The trio can finish on offense and stifles opponent shots. The Gourde line could then take defensive zone draws against top competition in crucial situations (due to Gourde’s superior production in the face-off circle). This would free up the Wennberg line to attack relatively weaker middle-six matchups and produce neutral or net-positive effects for the team.
The Kraken will not succeed in the playoffs if they consistently lose the premiere matchups. I understand pacing Matty Beniers through the regular season, but now is the time to take the training wheels off that line to see what they can do.
Which team do the Kraken have the best chance of beating in the opening round?
JB: I think all potential teams the Kraken could face in round one are beatable, but Dallas might be the most vulnerable to getting knocked off by the Kraken. The Kraken were 1-1-1 against the Stars this season, and the overtime loss could have easily gone the Kraken’s way if it weren’t for a goal by Dallas in the waning minutes to force OT. The one thing Seattle has done in those three games against Dallas is score goals. I think Jake Oettinger is a great, young goalie, but he doesn’t have the Kraken’s number like Marc-Andre Fleury does in Minnesota.
DB: You might be onto something with Dallas, John. Now that the Kraken have exorcized their demons and beaten that team, they do seem like a decent on-paper matchup. I obviously can’t agree with you here, though, so I’ll go in a different direction.
It is interesting to see three teams so incredibly close atop the Central Division standings at this point in the season. There are no truly dominant clubs in that division, which makes the crossover for the first round advantageous for the Kraken, as opposed to staying within the Pacific to face–most likely–Vegas. I’m uncomfortable saying this, but the way Seattle has matched up with Colorado this season may make them the preferred opponent.
Worth noting, the Avalanche have been much better recently than they were early in the season and are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games. So, they could be rolling at the right time, and this could end up being a terrible take.
JH: All three aren’t particularly appealing and would be tough outs, but I’m going to say Minnesota, and for two reasons. Betting markets and analytical models seem to like the Wild the least of that trio – FanDuel Sportsbook has the Avs at 7-to-1 to win the cup, the Stars at 15-to-1, and the Wild at 20-to-1; Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic has the Wild at a three percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup – and their lineup seemingly lacks the firepower of the other options.
CI: I come down on Josh’s side on this one. It seems like whistling past the graveyard to invite a matchup with Marc-Andre Fleury, and the Kraken are 1-2-0 against the Wild this season. But I can’t shake the feeling from the teams’ recent matchup in Minnesota that the Wild cannot catch the Kraken when Seattle brings its skating game. The breaks went Minnesota’s way that night, and Fleury dominated, but I liked a lot of what I saw from the boys in deep-sea blue. That matchup seems the most “winnable” of the three most realistic opponents, though I agree the team would have a puncher’s (goal scorer’s?) chance against Dallas as well.
Which team would not be a good first-round matchup for the Kraken?
DB: Of the three options, Minnesota, Colorado, and Dallas, I do think the Wild might be the toughest option. To John’s point earlier, Fleury does have Seattle’s number, and there are some big, tough customers on that club that I worry could push the Kraken around. That said, I wouldn’t be terrified of this matchup either, especially considering Minnesota’s penchant for early playoff exits.
With my deep Minnesota roots, that would also be a tough matchup for me to stomach emotionally…
JH: Count me out on facing the Avs in the first round, even with the track record against Colorado. I know they aren’t playing at the same level as their Stanley Cup version last season, but you would have to think that playing relatively close to that level is well within the range of outcomes.
JB: Edmonton. The Oilers are hot right now, but this matchup is becoming less and less likely as the Kraken look firmly planted in the first wild card position. The Kraken beat the Oilers earlier in the season, but the last two matchups have not looked very competitive, with Edmonton outscoring the Kraken 11-6 with two wins.
CI: I’m with you, John. An improbable (though mathematically possible) matchup with the Edmonton Oilers is the matchup that I would project as most problematic. The Kraken rely on their defensive structure to reign in their opponents’ transition game and push shot chances to the outside. But all too often that structure has crumbled in face of Edmonton’s elite offensive skill. Among the three more likely Central Division playoff teams, Colorado is the most threatening now that they are getting (slightly) healthier. That said, it is also the matchup that I most would like to see.
How deep can the Kraken go in the postseason?
DB: With Seattle’s success on the road, I can see the boys pulling off an upset in the first round, especially if they close out the regular season on a roll. While they do have a nice, balanced attack, I don’t see them as Stanley Cup contenders yet. It would be borderline shocking to me to see them advance past the second round.
JB: It is easy to look at the last four Stanley Cup champions and say the Kraken don’t fit the mold. That is definitely a fair comparison, but I’ve also always said that anything can happen in the playoffs. If you go back the last six Stanley Cup Finals, there are a handful of darkhorse teams that at least made it to the Final:
2016 San Jose – 3rd in the Pacific 2017 Nashville – Wild Card team 2019 St. Louis – 3rd in the Central 2021 Montreal – 4th in the North 2022 Tampa Bay – 3rd in the Atlantic
The odds are low, but they are low for all the teams due to the nature of the Stanley Cup playoffs. To answer the question literally, they can make it to the Stanley Cup Final. I do think the Kraken match up better with the Central teams, so it will be an advantage for them to be crossing over in the first round. I think they can win a round or two, and after that, luck will need to play a more significant part in their success.
JH: It’s the NHL. They can win the whole damn thing if they catch lightning in a bottle.
I think the most realistic option is a first-round exit, but I don’t think a second-round or Western Conference Final appearance is far fetched. Especially with the Kraken likely playing the Central Division, which head-to-head appears to be the weakest route on paper, it’s in the realm of possibility.
CI: It is a cliché that the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the hardest, but there is some logic to it; after the marathon regular season, 16 playoff teams all hit a higher, unsustainable gear at the same time and take it out on their first-round opponents. Seattle’s competition will play faster and could neutralize the team’s speed edge, while also upping the physical play on its relatively small forward group.
The team has never been able to overcome scoring problems through brute force at the net front, and this certainly won’t change in the postseason. Instead, the Kraken have survived so far on the strength of their perimeter finishing talent, but those goals may be harder to come by in the playoffs with more disciplined structure and gap control from opponents. Anything is possible in the chase for the Stanley Cup, but this year feels like a five-to-six-game run for the boys from the Pacific Northwest.
Which team wins the Stanley Cup?
DB: Boston is the obvious favorite, but something in my bones reminds me the team you expect to win the Stanley Cup almost never does. So, I’ll go with the club that seems like the second-most obvious favorite, the Carolina Hurricanes. I like the balance in their lineup, and Rod the Bod knows the right buttons to push. They’ve been too good for too long to not win one with their current group.
JH: My pragmatic brain says it’s the Bruins. My wallet hopes it’s the Oilers – that 15-to-1 bet to win the Stanley Cup is aging pretty nicely right now – and my gut is saying the same. It’s time for Connor McDavid to finally play, and win, a Stanley Cup Final.
CI: In my preseason post with Darren, I think I predicted the Colorado Avalanche and the New York Rangers in the final. Since that prediction remains technically possible, I’ll stick with it. Nathan MacKinnon and Igor Shesterkin are pretty decent players to gamble on, I guess. That said, my “hometown” heartstrings are telling me Boston.
DB: Ew. That last line almost made me throw up.
JB: Edmonton. I am not confident in this selection, but the Presidents’ Trophy winner rarely wins the Stanley Cup, so I needed to pick someone other than Boston. It seems like just about anyone can come out of the Eastern Conference and by the time that team makes it to the Stanley Cup Final, they will have been beaten to a pulp going through the Eastern Conference octagon. On the flip side, Edmonton seems to have the easiest path to the Stanley Cup Final.
Will the Kraken clinch their first playoff berth Thursday?
About halfway through the Kraken-Ducks game on Thursday night, I leaned over to the guy next to me and said, “The Kraken could score ten tonight.” It was not that the Kraken looked that good, but more the Ducks looked that bad. I know there were a few players out, but the Ducks looked brutal in the first period. Needless to say, I was a little nervous while the Kraken hung onto a one-goal lead deep into the period. I let out a huge sigh of relief when Daniel Sprong potted his 20th of the season to give the Kraken a two-goal lead with less than five minutes remaining in the game.
The Kings game on Saturday night was a completely different story. This was one of those tough-sledding games where neither team wanted to give up an inch. It was probably the soundest defensive game I have seen the Kraken play in a while, which is crazy to think about compared to the last time these two teams played, when there was a collective 17 goals scored in the wildest game of the year. According to Natural Stat Trick, there were only 10 ‘high-danger’ chances in Saturday’s game, a season low for a Kraken game.
The first goal didn’t come until halfway through the second period when Jared McCann blocked a shot that deflected right to Sean Durzi on the side of the net, who had a wide open tap-in goal. The Kraken looked determined to tie it up in the third when they logged six out of the first seven scoring chances.
Carl Grundstrom would eventually steal the puck from an unsuspecting Brandon Tanev in the Kraken zone and immediately bury it for the Kings second goal. At the time, it felt like that would be all the Kings would need, but to the Kraken’s credit, they battled back to get it within one on an Oliver Bjorkstrand power-play goal. In the end, the Kraken could not find the equalizer and the Kings would go on to add an empty netter.
Other Kraken musings:
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Kraken had 68.3 percent of the scoring chances against the Ducks on Thursday night. That was the fourth-highest percentage for the Kraken this season.
Although he was not significantly tested in either game, Martin Jones has looked much better in his two starts this week compared to his prior string of starts.
I know I have called this stat out before but, Oliver Bjorkstrand has a shooting percentage of 14 percent since Jan. 1. He was 5.4 percent prior to the turn of the calendar year.
Morgan Geekie has been getting more ice time and generating more shots since moving to second-line wing. He is due for a two-plus goal night.
Chris Driedger posted his first shutout for Coachella Valley on Friday since being assigned there by the Kraken to continue his rehabilitation. If the Kraken can lock up their playoff spot over the weekend, I would not be surprised to see Driedger get a call-up to get in an NHL game before the end of the season.
The Kraken have now improved their points in the standings by 30 points compared to last season. Only 20 teams have done that since the NHL expanded to an 82-game schedule in the 1995-96 season.
With five games remaining, the max number of points the Flames can get is 97. Nashville has seven games remaining and could get a max of 98 points. Getting six out of eight possible points would be huge for the Kraken this week, as that would give them 96 points with three games remaining.
The top-seeded Windsor Spitfires find themselves down two games to zero in the opening round of the OHL playoffs. If the Spitfires get bounced early from the playoffs, we should expect Shane Wright to join the Kraken as a black ace.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
Statistically, this is the easiest stretch of games the Kraken have faced all season. They have two games against the Coyotes, one road game against the Canucks, and a Saturday-night game at CPA against the Blackhawks. The minimum they need this week is four points, but the expected points should probably be six. Arizona’s points percentage on the road is just .295, and they have just seven wins out of 39 road games this season.
The Coyotes will also be coming into Seattle with seven losses in a row. Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks have currently lost eight games in a row. Although out of the playoffs, the Canucks have been playing better over the last few weeks and could be a tough team to play as the Kraken will be on the second night of a back-to-back on Tuesday. If they manage to get all eight points available this week, the Kraken would clinch a playoff spot without worrying what other teams do in their games.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Dylan Guenther (ARI/Seattle Thunderbirds) – The Arizona Coyotes prospect had three goals in the Seattle Thunderbirds’ two playoff games over the weekend including two in the thrilling come-from-behind victory at accesso ShoWare Center on Friday.
Jagger Firkus (SEA/Moose Jaw) – The Kraken’s second-round selection from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft had five points in his two WHL playoff games over the weekend.
Daniel Sprong (SEA) – Four goals over his last six games including a nice goal against the Ducks to give the Kraken some breathing room late in the third period. Sprong’s 20 goals ranks third on the Kraken despite averaging 11 minutes a game and playing only 59 of the team’s 75 games.
Goal of the week
Double-overtime winner for Seattle Kraken prospect Jagger Firkus in Moose Jaw’s Game 1 victory over Lethbridge in the opening round of the WHL playoffs.
— x – Moose Jaw Warriors (@MJWARRIORS) April 1, 2023
Chart of the week
Luckily it was not a theme this week, but there has been chatter about the Kraken allowing a lot of response goals this season. The one goal that stands out as the prime example is the Wyatt Johnson goal scored just 14 seconds after the Kraken pulled within one in the March 13 game against the Stars.
Allowing a response goal is not as common as we might have thought this season. If you want to learn a bit more about response goals, check out this piece from Alison Lukan last season when response goals were a bigger issue.
Buckle up for a critical week
As easy as the schedule appears, this will be the most important week of hockey in Kraken franchise history. The boys are in a good position to punch their ticket to the playoffs, but it will be critical that they take care of the teams they need to take care of this week to stay in that position.
