Although the Columbus Blue Jackets are a notoriously defensively-oriented team that flies under the radar in a small market, drama never fails to follow the Buckeye State’s NHL team. Seattle Kraken fans should keep a keen eye on the theatrics.
Recent rumors have swirled that young star center Pierre-Luc Dubois sought a trade out of Columbus. Although the 22-year-old signed a two-year, $10 million bridge contract — a smaller-term deal many players sign after restricted free agency and before reaching true unrestricted free agency — almost immediately after The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported Dubois wanted out, the rumors are still blistering.
It’s yet another tricky situation for Columbus, which has struggled to retain young and promising forwards — see: Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen.
With Johansen, the Blue Jackets traded the centerman to Nashville and landed young defenseman Seth Jones in return. That worked out well.
With Panarin, Columbus never traded him and he jumped ship to the New York Rangers once he reached free agency. Although Columbus upset the Tampa Bay Lightning in a stunning playoff sweep in the first round of the 2018 playoffs, that one did not work out as well.
Seattle Kraken fans should keep a keen eye on that situation, because if Dubois is traded — and if so, for whom — it would impact the Columbus Blue Jackets’ protected list.
Offseason Wildcards
After the Blue Jackets signed Oliver Bjorkstrand to a five-year, $27 million extension, there aren’t many question marks looming with Columbus, aside from the situation with Dubois.
But Nick Foligno is someone to keep an eye on. The 33-year-old team captain is an unrestricted free agent but could be in play for protection if he’s re-signed.
Assumptions
Until Dubois is traded, we will put Dubois on our initial protected list.
Key Exemptions
Alexandre Texier, Liam Foudy, and Emil Bemstrom — three promising forwards who are expected to be NHL regulars this year for the Blue Jackets — are exempt because they haven’t accrued more than two professional seasons.
The same goes for goaltender Elvis Merzlikins. Even though Merzlikins is 26, he’s played only one NHL season and doesn’t need to be protected.
Protected List
Forward:
Cam Atkinson (lock)
Oliver Bjorkstrand (lock)
Pierre-Luc Dubois (lock, if not traded)
Max Domi (lock)
Boone Jenner (near lock)
Gustav Nyquist
Eric Robinson
Defense:
Seth Jones (lock)
Zach Werenski (lock)
Vladislav Gavrikov (near lock)
Goaltender:
Joonas Korpisalo
Columbus’ forward group is not as deep as other teams, which is why the situation with Dubois is so important to monitor.
If Dubois is traded, and there isn’t a forward returning that warrants protection, Columbus may elect to protect eight total skaters instead. The Blue Jackets boast a couple of interesting options on the blue line, which we’ll delve into below, so they could protect a fourth defenseman over someone like Gustav Nyquist.
Expansion Draft Candidates
Forwards:
Cliff Pu
Kole Sherwood
Kevin Stenlund
Calvin Thurkauf
Defensemen:
Gabriel Carlsson
Dean Kukan
Goaltender:
Matiss Kivlenieks
The two trendiest names on Columbus as far as the Seattle Expansion Draft are Carlsson and Kukan, and for good reason.
Carlsson, 24, is 6-foot-5 and comes with a first-round pedigree (the Blue Jackets took him No. 29 overall in the 2015 NHL Draft). The Orebro, Sweden native is regarded as a stay-at-home defenseman with great size, but Carlsson hasn’t stuck full-time in the NHL yet.
After Columbus traded defensemen Ryan Murray and Markus Nutivaara in the offseason, the logjam in front of him dissipated and he should stick with Columbus this season.
If Seattle is seeking a more veteran presence, Kukan is a fine option.
Kukan, 27, showed some offensive upside last year when he drew into the lineup with five points in 33 games, as well as two points (1-1-2) in 19 career playoff games.
While Kukan and Carlsson are the trendy candidates for selection, don’t sleep on Kivlenieks.
The 24-year-old netminder has been the No. 3 in Columbus behind Korpisalo and Merzlikins but has some prospect appeal. If Seattle’s scouting staff holds Kivlenieks in high regard, this is a good option to fill a goaltender spot on the Kraken’s initial roster.
Pu, Thurkauf, Stenlund, and Sherwood would all be young organizational depth pieces from the Blue Jackets and probably nothing more for the Seattle Kraken. Stenlund, a former second-round pick, is the most interesting of that quartet.
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Calgary signed the best free agent goaltender available this past offseason, giving Jacob Markstrom a six-year, $36 million contract to leave division rival Vancouver. Markstrom, 30, bailed the Canucks out numerous times by stealing games and locking down leads while earning team MVP honors the past two seasons. He ranked second in the NHL with 20.16 goals saved (the net difference between the expected total goals allowed and the actual total goals allowed for all scoring chances faced by the goalie) last season, according to Clear Sight Analytics.
His elite play simply masks other deficiencies on his team, and the center position is one that will be under a microscope in Calgary this year. Sean Monahan and Mikael Backlund are good players who play big roles, but the Flames lack that superstar centerman associated with upper tier teams.
Missing the playoffs in the tight North Division – consisting of all the Canadian clubs – or losing in the first round for a third consecutive year will surely amplify the calls to trade star winger Johnny Gaudreau or Monahan. Any fallout from such a big trade will also alter what the Flames, who have just a little more than $223,000 in cap space as of Jan. 5, leave for the Kraken to choose.
Assumptions
Milan Lucic’s no-movement clause presents a big problem for Calgary general manager Brad Treliving. Lucic doesn’t deserve to be among the Flames’ seven protected forwards, possibly forcing the Flames to expose a good middle-six forward.
However, Lucic has waived his NMC before – in 2019 when the Edmonton Oilers traded him to the Flames. He could be convinced to waive it again, but what’s in it for him? Lucic holds some leverage despite his declining skills and production. We’d like to listen in on that conversation Treliving has with Lucic.
We’ll bet Lucic waives his NMC, and we will double down that Seattle won’t take him and his cap hit of $6 million per year through 2022-23.
Calgary Flames Protected List for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Matthew Tkachuk (Lock)
Johnny Gaudreau (Lock)
Sean Monahan (Lock)
Elias Lindholm (Lock)
Dillon Dubé
Sam Bennett
Andrew Mangiapane*
*Contingent upon Lucic waiving his NMC.
Mangiapane would be a good pick for Seattle if Lucic messes things up for Calgary and doesn’t waive his NMC. The 24-year-old notched 17 goals and 32 points in 68 games during his first full season with the Flames, so he’ll need to prove that wasn’t a fluke.
Bennett, 24, showed why he was taken fourth overall in the 2014 entry draft, playing a ferocious, hard-hitting style in the Edmonton playoff bubble. He needs to play more like playoff wrecking ball Sam (five goals and eight points in 10 games) instead of regular season passenger Sam (eight goals and 12 points in 52 games) to remain on this list.
Defense
Noah Hanifin (Lock)
Rasmus Andersson (Lock)
Chris Tanev
Useless fact: Tanev was a few rows in front of me at Night 1 of Pearl Jam’s 2018 “Home Shows” at the stadium formerly known as Safeco Field. How Seattle is that? He’s practically one of us, so it’s too bad the former Canucks blue-liner will likely be protected.
The Flames could still opt to protect Mark Giordano instead of Tanev, 31, who is six years younger and $2.25 million per year cheaper than Calgary’s captain.
Goalie
Jacob Markstrom (Lock, NMC)
Calgary Flames Targets for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Mikael Backlund
Glenn Gawdin
Calgary knows what it’s going to get with Backlund, who has had seasons of 47, 53, 45, 47 and 45 points in the past five years. That production is not likely to go up much now that he’s 31, so I can see Calgary protecting other forwards. However, Seattle would do pretty well to get a versatile center such as Backlund who can score in the 50-point neighborhood.
If you’re hoping Spokane native Derek Ryan heads Seattle’s way, it won’t be through the Expansion Draft. The 34-year-old center will be a free agent after this season.
Defense
Mark Giordano
Oliver Kylington
Giordano will be 39 when the 2021-22 season begins, so the Flames can take a chance they’ll lose their captain to the Kraken. Although Seattle would prefer to skew younger, getting this former Norris Trophy winner would bring a reliable veteran leader who should still be able to deliver a good all-around game and play both special teams.
Giordano will also have just one year left on his contract, reducing the risk for Seattle. As a result, he could be good trade bait at the 2022 deadline, and the Kraken will get $6.75 million in salary cap space freed up for free agents that summer.
Kylington, 23, presents a young and raw option for the Kraken. The 2015 second-round pick put up good numbers in four-plus AHL seasons, has scored five goals and 15 points in 87 NHL career games and is projected to be on Calgary’s third pairing this season.
Goalie
David Rittich
No other Flames goalie besides Markstrom is signed beyond this season, so they’ll need to get either Rittich, Tyler Parsons, Louis Domingue or Garret Sparks under contract through the end of the 2021-22 season to comply with Expansion Draft rules. Rittich, who will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, fumbled his chances to seize Calgary’s No. 1 job but is a decent backup.
The Kraken can do better to look elsewhere for a netminder in the Expansion Draft, especially with the Flames offering interesting choices at forward and defense.
Side Deal Scenarios
Let’s suppose Markstrom leads the Flames on a lengthy playoff run. Calgary might be tempted to keep the core group together, so Treliving would have to consider offering a prospect or draft pick to Kraken GM Ron Francis to steer him away from Giordano, Mangiapane or some trade deadline acquisition.
The Flames have some good, young talent on the horizon. Among them are three such prospects who have been playing recently at the World Junior Championship: Canadian forwards Jakob Pelletier and Connor Zary and U.S. and Everett Silvertips goalie Dustin Wolf. The Flames have all of their 2021 NHL Entry Draft picks except for a fourth-rounder. Calgary also has Edmonton’s third-round pick.
Just sayin’.
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Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
The Montreal Canadiens face some tough decisions on who to expose in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft.
The Habs have been stuck in a lull lately having missed the playoffs three out of the four seasons prior to the 2019-20 campaign. They benefited from the expanded structure of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs as the last team added to the 24-team field. They (sort of) took advantage of the opportunity by knocking off the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Qualifying Round before being eliminated by the Philadelphia Flyers in the First Round.
After their eventual playoff exit, the Canadiens may have still looked a few years away from pushing their chips into the center of the table for a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup. However, based on his offseason roster moves, it appears general manager Marc Bergevin has a different opinion.
The Canadiens had one of the most active offseasons out of any team in the league and added significant contributors to each position.
Even before the Stanley Cup had been raised, they had already traded a third- and seventh-round draft pick to the St. Louis Blues for goalie Jake Allen. A week or two later Montreal sent a fifth-round pick to Carolina for the rights to defenseman Joel Edmundson and signed him to a four-year deal.
Then, right before the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, Montreal traded point-producing center Max Domi to the Columbus Blue Jackets for talented winger Josh Anderson and promptly signed Anderson to a seven-year deal.
As if that was not enough, the Habs signed highly coveted unrestricted free agent forward Tyler Toffoli to a four-year deal.
These moves indicate that the Canadiens believe they are ready to compete. With the Expansion Draft looming, they will need to be smart to not let any of their key assets go to the Kraken.
Assumptions
The Canadiens have three significant players that are currently slated to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the 2020-21 season. Tomas Tatar (22G), Joel Armia (16G), and Phillip Danault (13G) together accounted for close to 25% of the Canadiens’ goals during the 2019-20 regular season and all will be in the last year of their respective contracts.
You can imagine that Bergevin signs at least two of them to extensions before the end of the season. A case can be made for any different combination of the three, but for now we are going to assume that two of them re-sign, specifically Tatar and Armia, while Danault hits free agency.
Our only logic for this assumption is that the Canadiens have more up-and-coming depth at center. Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are clearly the centers of the future, if not the present. Letting Danault walk for free agency will provide the space for the younger generation, both in playing time and salary.
Protected List
There is a scenario where Montreal could go with the less common eight total skaters and one goalie selection as opposed to the 7F-3D-1G option, but we project the 7-3-1.
Forwards
Brendan Gallagher (Lock-NMC)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (Lock)
Tyler Toffoli (Almost Lock)
Josh Anderson (Almost Lock)
Artturi Lehkonen
Tomas Tatar
Joel Armia
Again, this assumes Tatar and Armia sign extensions before the Expansion Draft. If only one re-signs, you can add Jonathan Drouin to the list of protected forwards.
Defense
Jeff Petry
Joel Edmundson
Ben Chiarot
Astute hockey fans will realize there is one significant name not on this list of protected players: Shea Weber.
Weber tied for fourth in goals scored by defensemen during the 2019-2020 NHL regular season. Weber is an elite NHL defenseman, but he will be 36 years old by the time the Seattle Kraken take the ice and will have four more seasons left on his $7.8M/year deal. Inevitably, his value will erode and Montreal could take the chance that Ron Francis disregards Weber in an attempt to build a team for the future.
Goalie
Carey Price (Lock-NMC)
We know this will disappoint Tri-City American fans, but Carey Price has a full no-movement clause and must be protected per the rules of the Expansion Draft.
Top Montreal Canadiens Expansion Draft Candidates
Forwards
Jonathan Drouin
Phillip Danault
Defense
Shea Weber
Victor Mete
Cale Fleury
Goalie
Jake Allen
If the Montreal Canadiens protected list for the Expansion Draft plays out this way exactly, then Seattle will have options at all positions. The first step might be to see if a deal can be reached for Danault during the 48-hour period when Seattle is allowed to talk to free agents exclusively.
If Danault is not interested in signing with Seattle, there are still plenty of other options. A case can be made for all the players listed above, including Allen, who could be targeted as a starter in Seattle or part of a 1a/1b combo, depending on who else is available.
Fleury and Mete could provide younger options at defense should the Kraken want a more youthful look on the blue line.
Side Deal Scenarios
The Canadiens signaled that they are trying to take a major step toward being a contender for a Stanley Cup run in the next few years. If this step works, the organization may want to keep the core intact and not lose a significant piece of their team to Seattle in the Expansion Draft.
There will be some good assets available from the Montreal Canadiens for Seattle in the Expansion Draft. Montreal might want to steer the Kraken’s selection in a certain direction by adding a prospect or draft pick to avoid losing specific assets.
Wow, big-time episode this week on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast! The guys welcome Lamont Buford, VP of Live Entertainment and Game Presentation for the Seattle Kraken, and his interview is worth the price of admission.
With Lamont Buford, the guys discuss his rise from “Puck Head” with the AHL’s Hershey Bears to where he is today, planning the in-game fan experience for the Seattle Kraken. He also humors John, Andy, and Darren with some mascot and goal song discussion and shares his opinions on some tried-and-true game presentation gimmicks. Andy also pitches to Lamont that he believes *this* should be the team mascot.
Apparently this is Sigmund the Sea Monster. Andy says he’s cool.
Also on this episode, the guys consider the huge news from earlier in the week that the NHL is officially returning to play on January 13th and what that means for Seattle.
Plus, a WHL Update, Goalie Gear Corner, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
Circle this date: July 21st. This is when the NHL will conduct the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft. Obviously, that will be a momentous day for the hockey world and particularly for Seattle fans. But with the league’s Return to Play plan for the NHL 2020-21 season now coming into focus, some other key dates surrounding the Expansion Draft have also been identified.
If you want more information on the NHL’s Return to Play plan, check out this article on NHL.com. For the rest of this post, we will focus on the key dates and activities that impact the Seattle Kraken in the 2020-21 NHL Season and beyond.
NHL Trade Deadline – 4/12/21
The trade deadline is a little bit of a mirage for Kraken fans. Trades can and will still happen leading up to the Expansion Draft, but the trade deadline is when the majority of moves will most likely be made. Rosters will be 95% locked after the trade deadline, so Kraken fans should have a pretty solid understanding of which players will be available in their mock drafts at that point.
Expansion Draft Window – 7/17/21 – 7/21/21
July 17th is when the 30 NHL teams that are participating in the Expansion Draft will submit their protected players list to the NHL. If everything runs similarly to the Vegas Expansion Draft, the league will quickly publish the list of protected players for each team.
This date will also trigger the ability for the Seattle Kraken to contact unprotected pending unrestricted free agents. During this time, the Kraken will be seeking assurances from UFA’s of interest to learn if they will actually sign with Seattle upon selection in the Expansion Draft. In a way, it serves as an exclusive negotiating window for the Kraken. For more information on the Expansion Draft rules, check out the this post from a couple months back.
The Seattle Kraken will need to submit their Expansion picks to the league by 10AM on 7/21. The details of that day are still to be determined, but we imagine after a validation of the picks and compliance with the rules, the team should be announced in the early evening.
Here is a breakdown of what will be a wild two weeks for Ron Francis and the team.
Block your calendars for the last two weeks of July because we should see about 40 players added to the franchise around that time. If you want a taste for what to expect, check out this post we did on the anatomy of the Vegas Expansion Draft.
During the 2017 Expansion Draft, it was slim pickings for the Vegas Golden Knights when it came to the Edmonton Oilers’ player pool, but thankfully for the Seattle Kraken, there’s a little bit more meat on the bone this time around.
The Oilers, with Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, have always boasted a top-heavy roster. But there’s more depth now than there was is 2017, with a few intriguing young players and some possible reclamation projects the Seattle Kraken can choose from in the 2021 Expansion Draft.
Assumptions
We’ll assume the Oilers will re-sign 27-year-old forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who is an unrestricted free agent after this upcoming season.
Top prospects Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, and Raphael Lavoie are all exempt because they haven’t accrued more than two professional seasons. Same with the Oilers’ recent first-round pick, Dylan Holloway.
Joakim Nygard, 27, and Gaetan Haas, 28, are also exempt.
Protected List
Forwards
Connor McDavid (Lock)
Leon Draisaitl (Lock)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Lock, if re-signed)
Kailer Yamamoto
Defensemen
Darnell Nurse
Oscar Klefbom
Ethan Bear
Caleb Jones
Goaltender
Mikko Koskinen
We project the Oilers to go the eight-skater route when it comes to their protection list for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft. This will allow them to keep promising young defensemen Ethan Bear, 23, and Caleb Jones, 23 away from Seattle.
The wildcard in this group is Oscar Klefbom, who could miss the 2021-22 campaign due to chronic issues with his shoulder. Klefbom, 27, is a productive player when healthy, but he may be put on long-term injured reserve. If that’s the case, Edmonton may not be compelled to protect him.
It’s a situation to closely monitor for Kraken fans. If Klefbom is left off Edmonton’s protected list, 28-year-old blueliner Adam Larsson or 29-year-old Tyson Barrie could take his place if either has a bounce-back season in 2021-22. Both are unrestricted free agents after the season. The Oilers could also protect seven forwards instead and just protecting Bear, Jones, and Nurse.
For now, Yamamoto, 22, holds the inside track for claiming the fourth and final protection spot at forward. However, Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, or even Dominik Kahun could claim it with a stellar 2021-22 campaign.
Expansion Draft Candidates
Forward
Jesse Puljujarvi
Dominik Kahun
Zack Kassian
Kyle Turris
Tyler Benson
Kassian is a trendy choice to be the pick from the Oilers in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft, but we at Sound Of Hockey frankly don’t understand the infatuation.
Yes, he is relatively big — Kassian is listed at 6-foot-3, 211 pounds — he’s developed a reputation as one of the NHL’s best tough guys, and he posted decent advanced metrics last season. But Kassian’s career-best 34-point season in 2019-20 came while playing 76 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes with Connor McDavid. Advanced metrics unsurprisingly indicate Kassian’s impact decreases significantly when he’s not playing with McDavid. Kassian, who is signed through 2024 with an average annual value (AAV) of $3.2 million, also is notorious for taking a great number of penalties.
If Seattle is looking for someone with top-six forward experience, Kassian may be the obvious choice. But there’s no guarantee he’ll be a top-six caliber player without Connor McDavid.
Puljujarvi, 22, is the splashiest choice for the Kraken because, quite simply, young players taken early in the NHL Draft aren’t usually available in an Expansion Draft. The Finnish winger, who was taken No. 4 overall by Edmonton in the 2016 NHL Draft, is 6-foot-4 and skilled but failed to make an impact early in his NHL career. What’s more, he spent the entire last season with Karpat in Liiga, Finland’s top league, after his relationship with the team soured and he publicly wanted to be traded out of Edmonton.
If Seattle is disenchanted with Puljujarvi, either Kahun, 25, or Benson, 22, would be the next best options.
Kahun is already with his fourth NHL franchise, but the German National Team forward has put up over 30 points in each of his two NHL seasons. The 25-year-old is a free agent in 2021-22.
Benson, a former member of the Vancouver Giants of the Western Hockey League, has proven to be a capable playmaker. The Edmonton native finished with 51 assists last year for the American Hockey League’s Bakersfield Condors, but he’s struggled with finishing at the NHL level. Benson is the Oilers’ seventh-ranked prospect, according to The Athletic’s Corey Pronman.
Turris’ best years are behind him, but he’s a decent option if Seattle is seeking a veteran on an affordable contract; Turris signed a two-year deal with Edmonton with an AAV of $1.6 million this offseason.
Defensemen
Adam Larsson
Tyson Barrie
William Lagesson
Larsson and Barrie are known for being lightning rods for teasing on the internet — Larsson because he was the other player in the infamous one-for-one Taylor Hall trade to New Jersey and Barrie because of his underwhelming tour with Toronto last season. But they are both worth mentioning because they’ve been highly productive players in the past.
Lagesson, 24, has not yet fully broken into the NHL, nor has he been overly productive in the AHL, but the Swedish rearguard would be the best option if Seattle is seeking a young defenseman.
Goaltender
Stuart Skinner
Everett Silvertips fans will remember Skinner for tending goal for the Swift Current Broncos in their 2017 WHL Championship series. Skinner, 22, had some prospect pedigree after being selected by Edmonton in the third round of the 2017 NHL Draft, but his stock fell after inconsistent play in his first two professional seasons.
If Skinner puts together a stellar 2021-22 season, he could land on the Kraken’s radar as a goalie prospect to gamble on. But for now, his situation is too blurry.
Potential Side Deals for Seattle Kraken
Perhaps the Oilers will dangle a prospect or a draft pick to coerce Seattle into taking expensive veteran forward James Neal. Neal, 33, and his $5.75 AAV contract expires in 2023. Edmonton, which has the 26th-ranked farm system in the NHL, may not have the firepower to make that happen or may not have the need to dump salary in general — the Oilers have plenty of projected cap space available in 2021-22.
Josh Horton is a freelance writer, former newspaper journalist, and former Western Hockey League writer for the Everett Herald and The Spokesman-Review (Spokane). He is NOT a juggler, nor is he a former professional baseball player. Follow him on Twitter @byjoshhorton.
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