One key to the Seattle Kraken’s success in this second year has been the team’s ability to recognize its shortcomings and improve in season. While other examples certainly exist—like three-on-three overtime, for one—the best illustration of this self-improvement is Seattle’s marked amelioration of the penalty kill.
We can pinpoint when the turnaround began. It was Dec. 31. The Kraken took the ice for practice at Kraken Community Iceplex looking downtrodden. They had just gotten smoked by the Edmonton Oilers the night before, 7-2 on home ice. Two of the goals against had come on Edmonton power plays, and at that point in the season, it was painfully obvious that something needed to change in how the team was approaching these four-on-five situations. The Kraken PK had dropped to 31st in the league, succeeding just 67.9 percent of the time. Goals were coming almost at will for opposing teams.
At that New Year’s Eve practice, the penalty kill took on a new look, and since that day, a dramatic turnaround has taken place. For the season as a whole, Seattle’s PK is still just 22nd in the league, nothing to write home about. But it has improved by 8.3 percent to a 76.2 percent success rate through 79 games. And if you break that down to just the 2023 calendar year, Jan. 1 through April 10, Seattle has a 83.9 percent success rate, good for fifth in the NHL in that stretch.
“It’s a different look,” said coach Dave Hakstol. “The first half of the year, we were coming out with a lot of top-down pressure—there’s still a little bit of that—but this just fits the personnel that we’re using much better to their skill sets. And it’s been a good change.”
Sound Of Hockey talked to Morgan Geekie and Yanni Gourde, two key players in the penalty kill at different stages of the season, as well as Hakstol to take you inside the changes that have transpired for the Kraken.
The old system
The system Seattle was using to start the season was the aggressive “wedge plus one,” which typically looked something like this:
Image from Jack Han’s “Hockey Tactics 2023,” a must-buy for fans looking to understand more about the systems and tactics being used by teams across the NHL.
In this system, the three players around the net stay relatively compact, while the player at the top, noted as F1, flies around the top of the zone, trying to disrupt passes. If he gets pulled too far to one side, he and F2 are supposed to quickly rotate to keep pressure on the power play quarterback at the top of the zone and to keep seams across the middle closed.
Geekie says the team called the old system the “toilet bowl.” Assuming the puck is at the top of the zone, F1 would go after the power play quarterback and push him to one side or the other. “If he’s a right-handed shot, he’ll be shaded to the left side. So the left-side guy will go and push him towards the wall, basically encouraging him to pass it to the half wall.”
From there, if the puck goes back up to the top, that’s when the rotation would happen, as F1 takes the spot F2 previously held, and now F2 is at the top. Or, as Geekie explained it: “If [the other team] somehow gets it back up to the top, the forward that pushed down will come underneath, and the other forward on the far side will just assume the first position and go back up to the top. And so it’s basically just spinning and spinning and spinning.”
Get it? It’s like a toilet bowl.
That sounds simple enough, so why didn’t it work for Seattle? Well, apparently there’s a lot of room for error in that system.
“Where you get mixed up is if one guy pushes, or the other guy pushes too early, it opens up the whole seam underneath,” said Geekie. “Or if you push too late, it opens up the high seam, and the guy on the half wall can walk down. And then if you push too far, then it goes back up to the top, you can walk all the way in.”
Geekie explained that killing penalties like that works well for some teams, but it depends on the personnel. He said that’s how his former team, the Carolina Hurricanes, killed penalties when he was there, and they did so successfully. But the Kraken just couldn’t ever seem to get the rhythm down.
Gourde put the challenges of the wedge-plus-one system in simpler terms. “There’s way more switches, there’s way more reads, I think, than [what we’re doing now]. If the puck’s in the middle of the ice, [and you get beat], the other guy flexes to the other two. If the pass stays on the outside, then the same guy attacks. So all those rotations, where you make reads, it’s a little bit harder.”
With so many moving parts, it was all too common for Kraken penalty killers to get crossed up in those earlier months of the season. And the second that happened, the puck seemed to end up in the back of the net almost every night. A change was desperately needed.
The new system
We thought we were pretty smart when we called for a simplified penalty kill on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, just days before the late-December change was implemented by the club. What Seattle switched to then, and is still using now, looks more like this:
Image from Jack Han’s “Hockey Tactics 2023,” a must-buy for fans looking to understand more about the systems and tactics being used by teams across the NHL.
It’s a more passive system that focuses on keeping the puck to the perimeter and blocking shots, as opposed to trying to disrupt passes before shots can even be taken.
“What we’re doing right now is more straight-line, always flexing back to the middle of the ice to prevent any seam,” said Gourde, who has been a mainstay on the PK all season. “You stay in your shooting lane more often, so if you get beat by one pass, there’s always one guy that kind of is in a good spot to help you out.”
Gourde explained that the penalty killers all keep their backs to the middle of the ice, and there are trigger points that tell them when to pressure the puck. Once those triggers happen—usually when the puck gets along the wall—they pounce to try to force mistakes.
The players still read off each other, and they may rotate slightly as a unit, but it’s rare to see players actually swap positions in the more traditional four-man box formation. This simplifies things compared to the previous system and minimizes the potential for missed assignments and misreads.
The change has worked wonders, and the numbers bear that out. On a 10-game rolling basis, the Kraken spent most of the first 45 games well below the league average, but they now sit among the best teams in the NHL as we approach the playoffs.
Jared McCann has been the x-factor
In addition to the systematic change, Seattle also adjusted the personnel it was using to kill penalties. The most obvious alteration was the inclusion of Jared McCann, who has become a lynchpin to Seattle’s success in this area, despite not having the traditional penalty killer profile.
Gourde, who has been partnered with McCann for most of the second half of the season, says its McCann’s speed, good stick, and ability to read the play that make him successful. He also says McCann’s offensive ability can keep opposing power plays honest, because they know if they turn the puck over to McCann, he can quickly make them pay.
“Every time we see a loose puck, we know he’s jumping, I know I’m jumping,” said Gourde. “So we create a little bit of something out there, and we’re super aggressive on those walls. When you’re aggressive, it’s an easier read for everybody.”
Improving is “what you’re supposed to do”
Hakstol gave credit for the successful changes to his assistant coach, Dave Lowry, who oversees the penalty kill for the Kraken, and to the players on the team.
“That’s what you’re supposed to do, right?” Hakstol said. “You have to evolve in the areas, you have to address areas that aren’t going well. And whether it’s a systems change or a change in the way the players are executing or a combination of the two really doesn’t matter. I mean, you address it honestly and look for a solution. In that case, it was a very good solution. Dave worked really hard on it, the players have worked really hard on it.”
But Hakstol isn’t satisfied with the improvement the team has made. As Seattle heads toward its first playoff appearance, he calls the penalty kill “an area we can still continue to keep building; we’re still working at it.”
This is it, folks! The Seattle Kraken are on the precipice of history with an opportunity to clinch their first berth in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. All they need to do is beat the lowly Coyotes–the same team they dispatched 8-1 just a few days ago–and they are officially in.
We thought it was a great time to do a roundtable discussion on the season that has been for the Kraken, their chances in the playoffs, and more.
Our own Curtis Isacke, John Barr, Josh Horton, and Darren Brown (that’s me!) put our heads together for some fun banter.
Enjoy!
How can the Kraken elevate their game for the playoffs?
Darren Brown: A week ago, I would have said figuring out how to score on the power play, but the Kraken have been hot in that area recently, thanks in large part to Daniel Sprong, who is oozing confidence right now. Seattle has scored power-play goals in four straight games.
So, instead, I’ll say get Andre Burakovsky back. It’s not so much that Burakovsky is an irreplaceable superstar, but the Kraken specifically don’t have the horses to effectively replace a top-six forward. Plus, the trickle down effect of not having him in the lineup has been immense. He did participate with the team on Monday for the first time since his injury on Feb. 7.
John Barr: I think getting Burakovsky back would be huge for the Kraken as well. But aside from that, the Kraken will need to continue to snuff out the shooting opportunities for the opponent. No matter how you measure it, the Kraken have been extremely stingy over the last seven games allowing season lows in shots against, Corsi against, and Fenwick against. Part of this might be due to the weakness of the opponents in this stretch, but if they can maintain this stingy defense, they can raise their level in the playoffs.
Josh Horton: A hot hand. The Kraken have excelled offensively this year by committee, but I think if someone set the playoffs on fire, it would be a massive advantage for Seattle.
Will it be Jared McCann, who has bagged 37 goals this year? Or could it be wunderkind Matty Beniers? What about Jordan Eberle, a veteran with playoff experience? No matter who it is, I think getting a guy on a heater at the right time would be huge.
Curtis Isacke: Getting Burakovsky back will help, but the Kraken need to be brutally honest about what has and has not worked with their personnel groupings.
For much of the season while Burakovsky was healthy, the team deployed Burakovsky, Alex Wennberg, and a third linemate (most frequently Jaden Schwartz) to matchup against the top lines from the competition. The results were not good enough offensively. The Burakovsky-Wennberg-Schwartz line created just 2.12 expected goals per sixty minutes of even-strength ice time, while conceding 2.37 expected goals. And the actual on-ice results were worse; the team scored five goals with those three on the ice at even strength and allowed 12 goals against.
In contrast, the Beniers line and the Gourde line have dominated their matchups offensively and defensively, both in terms of goal differential and expected goal differential. Those lines have the defensive chops to hold up against stronger competition and have offensive tactics that could very well translate against top lines too.
I think the Beniers line should be trusted with the bulk of these tougher assignments during the run of play. The trio can finish on offense and stifles opponent shots. The Gourde line could then take defensive zone draws against top competition in crucial situations (due to Gourde’s superior production in the face-off circle). This would free up the Wennberg line to attack relatively weaker middle-six matchups and produce neutral or net-positive effects for the team.
The Kraken will not succeed in the playoffs if they consistently lose the premiere matchups. I understand pacing Matty Beniers through the regular season, but now is the time to take the training wheels off that line to see what they can do.
Which team do the Kraken have the best chance of beating in the opening round?
JB: I think all potential teams the Kraken could face in round one are beatable, but Dallas might be the most vulnerable to getting knocked off by the Kraken. The Kraken were 1-1-1 against the Stars this season, and the overtime loss could have easily gone the Kraken’s way if it weren’t for a goal by Dallas in the waning minutes to force OT. The one thing Seattle has done in those three games against Dallas is score goals. I think Jake Oettinger is a great, young goalie, but he doesn’t have the Kraken’s number like Marc-Andre Fleury does in Minnesota.
DB: You might be onto something with Dallas, John. Now that the Kraken have exorcized their demons and beaten that team, they do seem like a decent on-paper matchup. I obviously can’t agree with you here, though, so I’ll go in a different direction.
It is interesting to see three teams so incredibly close atop the Central Division standings at this point in the season. There are no truly dominant clubs in that division, which makes the crossover for the first round advantageous for the Kraken, as opposed to staying within the Pacific to face–most likely–Vegas. I’m uncomfortable saying this, but the way Seattle has matched up with Colorado this season may make them the preferred opponent.
Worth noting, the Avalanche have been much better recently than they were early in the season and are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games. So, they could be rolling at the right time, and this could end up being a terrible take.
JH: All three aren’t particularly appealing and would be tough outs, but I’m going to say Minnesota, and for two reasons. Betting markets and analytical models seem to like the Wild the least of that trio – FanDuel Sportsbook has the Avs at 7-to-1 to win the cup, the Stars at 15-to-1, and the Wild at 20-to-1; Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic has the Wild at a three percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup – and their lineup seemingly lacks the firepower of the other options.
CI: I come down on Josh’s side on this one. It seems like whistling past the graveyard to invite a matchup with Marc-Andre Fleury, and the Kraken are 1-2-0 against the Wild this season. But I can’t shake the feeling from the teams’ recent matchup in Minnesota that the Wild cannot catch the Kraken when Seattle brings its skating game. The breaks went Minnesota’s way that night, and Fleury dominated, but I liked a lot of what I saw from the boys in deep-sea blue. That matchup seems the most “winnable” of the three most realistic opponents, though I agree the team would have a puncher’s (goal scorer’s?) chance against Dallas as well.
Which team would not be a good first-round matchup for the Kraken?
DB: Of the three options, Minnesota, Colorado, and Dallas, I do think the Wild might be the toughest option. To John’s point earlier, Fleury does have Seattle’s number, and there are some big, tough customers on that club that I worry could push the Kraken around. That said, I wouldn’t be terrified of this matchup either, especially considering Minnesota’s penchant for early playoff exits.
With my deep Minnesota roots, that would also be a tough matchup for me to stomach emotionally…
JH: Count me out on facing the Avs in the first round, even with the track record against Colorado. I know they aren’t playing at the same level as their Stanley Cup version last season, but you would have to think that playing relatively close to that level is well within the range of outcomes.
JB: Edmonton. The Oilers are hot right now, but this matchup is becoming less and less likely as the Kraken look firmly planted in the first wild card position. The Kraken beat the Oilers earlier in the season, but the last two matchups have not looked very competitive, with Edmonton outscoring the Kraken 11-6 with two wins.
CI: I’m with you, John. An improbable (though mathematically possible) matchup with the Edmonton Oilers is the matchup that I would project as most problematic. The Kraken rely on their defensive structure to reign in their opponents’ transition game and push shot chances to the outside. But all too often that structure has crumbled in face of Edmonton’s elite offensive skill. Among the three more likely Central Division playoff teams, Colorado is the most threatening now that they are getting (slightly) healthier. That said, it is also the matchup that I most would like to see.
How deep can the Kraken go in the postseason?
DB: With Seattle’s success on the road, I can see the boys pulling off an upset in the first round, especially if they close out the regular season on a roll. While they do have a nice, balanced attack, I don’t see them as Stanley Cup contenders yet. It would be borderline shocking to me to see them advance past the second round.
JB: It is easy to look at the last four Stanley Cup champions and say the Kraken don’t fit the mold. That is definitely a fair comparison, but I’ve also always said that anything can happen in the playoffs. If you go back the last six Stanley Cup Finals, there are a handful of darkhorse teams that at least made it to the Final:
2016 San Jose – 3rd in the Pacific 2017 Nashville – Wild Card team 2019 St. Louis – 3rd in the Central 2021 Montreal – 4th in the North 2022 Tampa Bay – 3rd in the Atlantic
The odds are low, but they are low for all the teams due to the nature of the Stanley Cup playoffs. To answer the question literally, they can make it to the Stanley Cup Final. I do think the Kraken match up better with the Central teams, so it will be an advantage for them to be crossing over in the first round. I think they can win a round or two, and after that, luck will need to play a more significant part in their success.
JH: It’s the NHL. They can win the whole damn thing if they catch lightning in a bottle.
I think the most realistic option is a first-round exit, but I don’t think a second-round or Western Conference Final appearance is far fetched. Especially with the Kraken likely playing the Central Division, which head-to-head appears to be the weakest route on paper, it’s in the realm of possibility.
CI: It is a cliché that the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the hardest, but there is some logic to it; after the marathon regular season, 16 playoff teams all hit a higher, unsustainable gear at the same time and take it out on their first-round opponents. Seattle’s competition will play faster and could neutralize the team’s speed edge, while also upping the physical play on its relatively small forward group.
The team has never been able to overcome scoring problems through brute force at the net front, and this certainly won’t change in the postseason. Instead, the Kraken have survived so far on the strength of their perimeter finishing talent, but those goals may be harder to come by in the playoffs with more disciplined structure and gap control from opponents. Anything is possible in the chase for the Stanley Cup, but this year feels like a five-to-six-game run for the boys from the Pacific Northwest.
Which team wins the Stanley Cup?
DB: Boston is the obvious favorite, but something in my bones reminds me the team you expect to win the Stanley Cup almost never does. So, I’ll go with the club that seems like the second-most obvious favorite, the Carolina Hurricanes. I like the balance in their lineup, and Rod the Bod knows the right buttons to push. They’ve been too good for too long to not win one with their current group.
JH: My pragmatic brain says it’s the Bruins. My wallet hopes it’s the Oilers – that 15-to-1 bet to win the Stanley Cup is aging pretty nicely right now – and my gut is saying the same. It’s time for Connor McDavid to finally play, and win, a Stanley Cup Final.
CI: In my preseason post with Darren, I think I predicted the Colorado Avalanche and the New York Rangers in the final. Since that prediction remains technically possible, I’ll stick with it. Nathan MacKinnon and Igor Shesterkin are pretty decent players to gamble on, I guess. That said, my “hometown” heartstrings are telling me Boston.
DB: Ew. That last line almost made me throw up.
JB: Edmonton. I am not confident in this selection, but the Presidents’ Trophy winner rarely wins the Stanley Cup, so I needed to pick someone other than Boston. It seems like just about anyone can come out of the Eastern Conference and by the time that team makes it to the Stanley Cup Final, they will have been beaten to a pulp going through the Eastern Conference octagon. On the flip side, Edmonton seems to have the easiest path to the Stanley Cup Final.
Will the Kraken clinch their first playoff berth Thursday?
About halfway through the Kraken-Ducks game on Thursday night, I leaned over to the guy next to me and said, “The Kraken could score ten tonight.” It was not that the Kraken looked that good, but more the Ducks looked that bad. I know there were a few players out, but the Ducks looked brutal in the first period. Needless to say, I was a little nervous while the Kraken hung onto a one-goal lead deep into the period. I let out a huge sigh of relief when Daniel Sprong potted his 20th of the season to give the Kraken a two-goal lead with less than five minutes remaining in the game.
The Kings game on Saturday night was a completely different story. This was one of those tough-sledding games where neither team wanted to give up an inch. It was probably the soundest defensive game I have seen the Kraken play in a while, which is crazy to think about compared to the last time these two teams played, when there was a collective 17 goals scored in the wildest game of the year. According to Natural Stat Trick, there were only 10 ‘high-danger’ chances in Saturday’s game, a season low for a Kraken game.
The first goal didn’t come until halfway through the second period when Jared McCann blocked a shot that deflected right to Sean Durzi on the side of the net, who had a wide open tap-in goal. The Kraken looked determined to tie it up in the third when they logged six out of the first seven scoring chances.
Carl Grundstrom would eventually steal the puck from an unsuspecting Brandon Tanev in the Kraken zone and immediately bury it for the Kings second goal. At the time, it felt like that would be all the Kings would need, but to the Kraken’s credit, they battled back to get it within one on an Oliver Bjorkstrand power-play goal. In the end, the Kraken could not find the equalizer and the Kings would go on to add an empty netter.
Other Kraken musings:
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Kraken had 68.3 percent of the scoring chances against the Ducks on Thursday night. That was the fourth-highest percentage for the Kraken this season.
Although he was not significantly tested in either game, Martin Jones has looked much better in his two starts this week compared to his prior string of starts.
I know I have called this stat out before but, Oliver Bjorkstrand has a shooting percentage of 14 percent since Jan. 1. He was 5.4 percent prior to the turn of the calendar year.
Morgan Geekie has been getting more ice time and generating more shots since moving to second-line wing. He is due for a two-plus goal night.
Chris Driedger posted his first shutout for Coachella Valley on Friday since being assigned there by the Kraken to continue his rehabilitation. If the Kraken can lock up their playoff spot over the weekend, I would not be surprised to see Driedger get a call-up to get in an NHL game before the end of the season.
The Kraken have now improved their points in the standings by 30 points compared to last season. Only 20 teams have done that since the NHL expanded to an 82-game schedule in the 1995-96 season.
With five games remaining, the max number of points the Flames can get is 97. Nashville has seven games remaining and could get a max of 98 points. Getting six out of eight possible points would be huge for the Kraken this week, as that would give them 96 points with three games remaining.
The top-seeded Windsor Spitfires find themselves down two games to zero in the opening round of the OHL playoffs. If the Spitfires get bounced early from the playoffs, we should expect Shane Wright to join the Kraken as a black ace.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
Statistically, this is the easiest stretch of games the Kraken have faced all season. They have two games against the Coyotes, one road game against the Canucks, and a Saturday-night game at CPA against the Blackhawks. The minimum they need this week is four points, but the expected points should probably be six. Arizona’s points percentage on the road is just .295, and they have just seven wins out of 39 road games this season.
The Coyotes will also be coming into Seattle with seven losses in a row. Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks have currently lost eight games in a row. Although out of the playoffs, the Canucks have been playing better over the last few weeks and could be a tough team to play as the Kraken will be on the second night of a back-to-back on Tuesday. If they manage to get all eight points available this week, the Kraken would clinch a playoff spot without worrying what other teams do in their games.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Dylan Guenther (ARI/Seattle Thunderbirds) – The Arizona Coyotes prospect had three goals in the Seattle Thunderbirds’ two playoff games over the weekend including two in the thrilling come-from-behind victory at accesso ShoWare Center on Friday.
Jagger Firkus (SEA/Moose Jaw) – The Kraken’s second-round selection from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft had five points in his two WHL playoff games over the weekend.
Daniel Sprong (SEA) – Four goals over his last six games including a nice goal against the Ducks to give the Kraken some breathing room late in the third period. Sprong’s 20 goals ranks third on the Kraken despite averaging 11 minutes a game and playing only 59 of the team’s 75 games.
Goal of the week
Double-overtime winner for Seattle Kraken prospect Jagger Firkus in Moose Jaw’s Game 1 victory over Lethbridge in the opening round of the WHL playoffs.
— x – Moose Jaw Warriors (@MJWARRIORS) April 1, 2023
Chart of the week
Luckily it was not a theme this week, but there has been chatter about the Kraken allowing a lot of response goals this season. The one goal that stands out as the prime example is the Wyatt Johnson goal scored just 14 seconds after the Kraken pulled within one in the March 13 game against the Stars.
Allowing a response goal is not as common as we might have thought this season. If you want to learn a bit more about response goals, check out this piece from Alison Lukan last season when response goals were a bigger issue.
Buckle up for a critical week
As easy as the schedule appears, this will be the most important week of hockey in Kraken franchise history. The boys are in a good position to punch their ticket to the playoffs, but it will be critical that they take care of the teams they need to take care of this week to stay in that position.
For the first time in two weeks, the Kraken were home for a spirited practice Wednesday at Kraken Community Iceplex. The group worked on high-speed game situations and had all players present and accounted for… except, of course, for Andre Burakovsky. The high-scoring winger has not practiced with his teammates since suffering a lower-body injury in Seattle’s game against the Islanders on Feb. 7.
Head coach Dave Hakstol was asked for an update on Burakovsky and said there has been no change in his status. We didn’t get the sense Burakovsky is particularly close to readiness, and in fact, Hakstol said whenever Burakovsky does join the team for practice, he will still require significant time before he can play a game.
“It’s not ideal as you get to this time of year,” said Hakstol, recognizing there are only two weeks left in the regular season. “We may not have the luxury of the ideal pathway towards [his return].”
The bench boss declined to give any timeline for Burakovsky returning to practice or game action.
The Kraken play timelines close to the vest anyway, but what’s interesting about Hakstol’s update (or lack thereof) is that general manager Ron Francis said in an interview with ROOT Sports on Feb. 26 that he hoped Burakovsky would be back within a couple weeks. Then, we saw Burakovsky skating by himself on March 8, so it seemed like we were marching toward a return. But now three more weeks have passed, and we’re still in “status quo” mode.
That tells us either Burakovsky’s injury has continued to linger and isn’t getting better at the rate the team expected, or he had a setback in his recovery.
Morgan Geekie finding temporary home in Burakovsky’s spot
With Burakovsky out of the lineup, Hakstol has tried several different line combinations to fill the top-six winger role. Brandon Tanev, Jesper Froden, and Oliver Bjorkstrand all got looks there, and of the three, Bjorkstrand was the most natural fit. But moving him up meant breaking up an effective third line of Eeli Tolvanen, Yanni Gourde, and Bjorkstrand.
So, it wasn’t surprising to see the third line reunited recently, but it was a bit surprising to see Hakstol trying out Morgan Geekie—typically a center—on the line next to Jaden Schwartz and Alex Wennberg. From what we saw Wednesday and from what Hakstol said, Geekie could be the guy that fills that role for the foreseeable future.
“We liked the combination with Morgan moving with Wenny and with Schwartzy,” said Hakstol. “It’s looked good offensively. They’ve generated an awful lot of zone time. They’re generating some good offensive looks from down low in the zone, which— that gets Schwartzy back in his office a little bit where he’s able to spend time down low.”
Geekie seems to be relishing the elevated opportunity. We’ve heard him say on several occasions over the past two seasons that if he’s given a chance to contribute on a higher line, he can do it. One of his best games of the year came when he was filling in for an injured Matty Beniers, just before the All-Star break. So when he’s gotten games in top-six roles, he has done well.
“Obviously Wenny and Schwartzy are pretty good players,” Geekie said. “I think the game well enough to play on that spot, for sure. And I know I can make plays, personally. I’m just trying to take the opportunity to create as much as I can for those guys, space and plays alike. So, just try to play my game and try to get comfortable with those guys.”
Morgan Geekie is taking advantage of an elevated role with Andre Burakovsky out of the lineup. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Moving from fourth-line center to a top-six wing role is a change for Geekie, who says he prides himself on being a good defensive centerman. Now, he has Wennberg—who Geekie calls a great defensive center in his own right—to do some of the tougher work low in the defensive zone. That frees up Geekie to get up ice and try to stretch out opposing defenses.
“I want to be strong in our own end and things like that, but there’s a little more opportunity to jump the zone and kind of spread it for the other guys,” Geekie explained. “Any opportunity that I can get to be the first one out [of the defensive zone], if it’s coming up the other side, I’ve got good speed and I can kind of push the zone and spread it for other guys.”
Daniel Sprong closing in on 20 goals
We’ve written and talked a lot about Daniel Sprong and the offensive success he’s had this season. It has been fascinating to watch, mostly because he has had to clear hurdle after hurdle to get a contract, a spot on the NHL roster, and even now, a spot in the lineup. Yet, here he sits, just one goal away from 20 for the first time in his career, despite never being elevated off the fourth line.
Daniel Sprong is closing in on 20 goals for the first time in his NHL career. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
“It’s not bad for a fourth-line guy,” Sprong joked. “No, I try not to think about it. Of course, being one away— you saw Matty [get his 20th] in Nashville. We were kind of joking around when we were both at 19, I said, ‘You go get 20, and then I’ll go right after you.’”
Sprong has been especially hot of late and scored goals in three straight games between Dallas and the two games in Nashville. He was held off the board in Minnesota on Monday, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.
“I think in Minnesota, I had 13 shot attempts,” Sprong said. “I’m gonna get my looks and hopefully find one here. It would be nice to do it against my old team [Thursday] night; that’d be a bonus.”
Sprong tied Schwartz for most shots on goal across all skaters in the Minnesota game, despite playing just 13:18 of ice time.
Fourth line success
Although Geekie has been temporarily elevated to a top-six role, he and Sprong have been key cogs in the machine that is Seattle’s fourth line this season. Almost every night, that bottom trio has been some combination of Tanev, Sprong, Geekie, and/or Ryan Donato.
It has been impressive to watch them drive play and produce offensively, especially when you consider that the usual role of a fourth line is simply to check, provide energy, and wear down opposing defenses.
“We’re a little different than most fourth lines,” Geekie said. “We’re not as much crash and bang. We’re more or less an offensive line, for sure.”
Despite limited minutes on a lot of nights, the four players that typically rotate in and out of that line have combined for 54 goals this season.
“Some nights we might only get nine minutes, and we know we’re only gonna get a handful of times where we can create offense,” Geekie said. “So we try to make the most of that.”
Geekie and Sprong agree the secret to the group’s success is that they’ve all spent plenty of time together at this point, and they’re a good fit with one another.
“I’m more the offensive guy that will take the chances, I’ll make the risky [plays], and then if it works out, you know we’re off to the races,” Sprong said. “And if not, Geeks— he’s great down the middle with us, and he sometimes saves my ass a little bit so it doesn’t look bad. But, no, we complement each other really well. And that’s the biggest thing as a line.”
Added Geekie, “Obviously, Spongey’s got a shot, Tans is kind of making space for everyone else, and Donny’s hard on pucks. So everyone’s kind of got the role, and when I’m there, I just try to complement those guys as much as I can and give them the puck in spots where they can do damage with it.”
Hakstol recognizes the value that rotating group of fourth-liners has brought to the team this season as well.
“They’ve played a lot of minutes together,” Hakstol said. “I’ve got my evaluation of what each of those combinations of three looks like and what the numbers say. At the end of the day, whoever has been part of that, it’s been a good productive line for us.”
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
We don’t want to jinx anything, because we know as well as anyone that nothing is clinched until it is clinched. And the Kraken still have some road to cover before they can say they’re in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time. BUT… Even with a 5-1 loss to the Wild on Monday, things are looking pretty good for the Kraken and their chances of earning their first postseason berth in franchise history.
According to MoneyPuck.com, the Kraken now hold a 98.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. With 88 points in the standings and nine games remaining, they are seven points ahead of Calgary with a game in hand and eight points ahead of Nashville. The Kraken just need to stay ahead of those two clubs.
With a day off for the team Tuesday, we thought it could be a fun exercise to consider Seattle’s various possible first-round playoff matchups, which we can narrow down to five (or maybe six if you include the Edmonton Oilers, though we did not include them in this exercise) different opponents. Heck, maybe we’ll even get a little crazy and make some predictions.
Let’s consider the options and how the Kraken could stack up against each possible adversary.
Reminder of how playoff seeding works
Here’s how the seeding works, which will help us understand who are the possible opponents in Round 1. The top three teams from the Pacific Division and the top three from the Central take the “automatic” qualifier spots to make up six of the eight positions. The other two spots are “wild card” teams, meaning the two teams in the Western Conference with the most points that didn’t earn an automatic qualifier spot. So, the wild card teams can come from either division, making it possible one division could have five teams in the playoffs in a given season.
It is looking more and more likely that the Kraken will take the top wild card spot, with the Winnipeg Jets taking the second spot. If the Kraken take the first wild card, they play the division winner with the lowest point total, meaning—based on current standings—Minnesota would be the opponent. Should the Central winner end up with more points than the Pacific winner, then Seattle would face the winner of the Pacific.
We will order these opponents based on what we see as the most likely scenarios.
Make sense? Great. Let’s get into it.
Minnesota Wild
Season series: Kraken lost series with 1-2-0 record
With Minnesota atop the Central Division and trailing Vegas by three points, the Wild are the current matchup for the Kraken if the season were to end today. We saw these teams play each other Monday, so comparing the squads feels fresh and easy right now.
Why the Kraken can win against the Wild
Despite the recent 5-1 loss, the Kraken could compete with Minnesota in a seven-game series. They were the better team for a lot of Monday’s game, but Marc-Andre Fleury played great at one end, and Philipp Grubauer had a bad night at the other end.
Seattle played fast and had the Wild on their heels for most of the first 40 minutes but couldn’t capitalize on their opportunities, while Minnesota very much did. If Seattle can get the balanced scoring it has gotten throughout the season, it will have a good chance to upset the Wild, who—by the way—love a good first-round playoff exit.
Why the Kraken can lose against the Wild
We’re going to get this one out of the way now, and this will stand for almost every possible matchup, even if we don’t directly mention it moving forward: goaltending.
The goal crease remains a thorn in the Kraken’s tentacle, and even though the club has had good stretches from both Martin Jones and Philipp Grubauer this season, the consistency just hasn’t been there. In the last couple weeks, the only goalie that has really given the team quality outings has been Joey Daccord, who is now back in the AHL.
This is an area in which the Wild would have an obvious advantage, especially if Grubauer doesn’t get things rolling in these last couple weeks of the regular season. Worth noting, Fleury only makes up part of a two-headed goaltending monster, sharing the crease with Filip Gustavsson. Gustavsson has been quietly sensational, with a 2.01 goals against average and .932 save percentage in 34 appearances.
Another thing that concerns us about this matchup is that Minnesota has some big, tough customers that could push Seattle’s smaller players around in a seven-game series. Outside of Jamie Oleksiak, the Kraken really have no answer for guys like Ryan Reaves and Marcus Foligno, who will surely be looking to stir things up against a smaller Kraken squad. Physicality isn’t everything in a playoff series, but it is a big part of it. Having John Hayden healthy would sure be nice…
Oh, and worth noting, Minnesota’s superstar forward, Kirill Kaprizov, did not play Monday, but should be back in time for the playoffs. Yippee!
Colorado Avalanche
Season series: Kraken won series with 2-0-1 record
Two of Seattle’s most memorable wins of the season came against the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche. The first one was back in October on what would have been Grubauer’s best outing of the early going, had he not gotten injured that night. Believe it or not, Karson Kuhlman was the hero in that game, scoring 12 minutes into the third period to break a 2-2 tie. The second win came more recently on March 5. That night, Seattle overcame a late 2-1 deficit and earned the W thanks to a Yanni Gourde breakaway goal.
Why the Kraken can win against the Avalanche
For some reason, Seattle has matched up pretty well against the Avs this season, though there have been injuries to key Colorado players during those games. Grubauer seems to really like playing against his old team and has posted a 1.70 GAA and .928 save percentage in his three outings against them.
If Seattle can roll four lines and get contributions up and down the roster—as the team has done all season—we actually like the forward depth of the Kraken better than that of the Avalanche. If they can also come up with an effective strategy for checking Nathan MacKinnon, there is a path to victory for Seattle in a seven-game series.
Why the Kraken can lose against the Avalanche
While Seattle’s forward lines are deeper, the top-end skill of the Avalanche is among the best in the NHL. In two years of covering the Kraken, Nathan MacKinnon is one of two players—besides Connor McDavid—who gets the puck and instantly makes us hold our breath. He operates at a different level from his teammates and opponents. Teamed with Mikko Rantanen and Val Nichushkin, that top line is scary, as is the top defense pairing of Cale Makar and Devon Toews and the potent power play that clicks at 25.7 percent.
This would be a classic matchup of a top-heavy, highly skilled forward corps against a more balanced attack.
Also worth noting, Colorado got over the hump last season and won hockey’s biggest prize. The experience of that kind of playoff run goes a long way, and while Seattle has plenty of playoff miles from individuals in the room, the group has never been there together.
Vegas Golden Knights
Season series: Currently tied at one regulation win apiece, two games left to play
It’s a bit of a tossup as to who would be the next most likely matchup for the Kraken. We don’t foresee a Central team catching Vegas to take the top spot in the conference, but if Minnesota, Colorado, or Dallas does that, and Seattle holds its current position, then the Kraken would play the Golden Knights. The other possibility in the tossup is that Dallas sneaks by both Colorado and Minnesota to win the Central, but doesn’t catch Vegas. We think it’s more likely that Seattle plays Vegas, as opposed to Dallas.
How fun would this matchup be? The two newest teams in the NHL, which have some natural rivalry tendencies, duking it out for expansion supremacy.
Why the Kraken can win against the Golden Knights
If it weren’t for Seattle proving it can win against Vegas on Nov. 25, we would have hated this matchup. Way back in their Oct. 15 game against the VGK’s at Climate Pledge Arena, the Kraken got run out of their own building in a 5-2 defeat. That brought Vegas to a perfect 5-0-0 all-time record against the Kraken, but thankfully, the boys bounced back for an impressive win later in the fall.
A lot has changed since those early season games. Vegas has had a very impressive second half of the season, but questions remain around their health and goaltending. They traded for Jonathan Quick at the trade deadline, which gives them another option, but they’ve had a carousel of five different goalies in net for them on any given night. Meanwhile, Mark Stone remains out indefinitely after undergoing a second back procedure in nine months in January.
We also wonder if the excitement of a series against one of their closest rivals could lift the Kraken to a higher level of play in this one.
Why the Kraken can lose against the Golden Knights
Vegas is generally a scary team. Their building is tough to play in, they have star-caliber forwards, and—even as they have rotated through so many goalies—all of their netminders seem to be having success in coach Bruce Cassidy’s system. They’re very patient in their approach, keeping shots to the outside and taking advantage of turnovers, and they have a more balanced attack than a team like Colorado.
If they can get Seattle to run around, and their goalies make the saves they’re supposed to make, the Golden Knights are better than the Kraken. There’s a reason this team has been red hot in the second half of the season.
The Golden Knights and Kraken play each other for the last two games of the regular season. By then, most of the playoff matchups will be largely decided. Wouldn’t those two games be interesting if a Round 1 matchup between Vegas and Seattle was on the horizon?
Dallas Stars
Season series: Kraken are 1-1-1 against Dallas
Like Vegas, we would have hated this matchup for the Kraken, had they not pulled off a win against Dallas last Tuesday. Twice in 10 days, Seattle gave up late tying goals against the Stars in six-on-five scenarios, and it sandwiched in an ugly 5-2 home defeat between those two games. Thankfully, the Kraken did escape with an overtime win in Dallas when Adam Larsson showed off some silky mitts to score on a breakaway.
Why the Kraken can win against the Stars
Call us crazy, but for some reason, Dallas feels like a less scary opponent than others we’ve mentioned here, even though Seattle hasn’t been all that successful against that group. There is plenty of skill on the roster, with Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, and Roope Hintz leading the way, and with veterans Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin now playing more supporting roles, this team is less top heavy than it used to be.
Their record also doesn’t look great, but the Kraken had every opportunity to beat Dallas in their first matchup and threw it away late. Had it closed out that game, Seattle would have a 2-1-0 record against Dallas, even with the dud performance on March 13.
Why the Kraken can lose against the Stars
We just mentioned Benn and Seguin playing lower in the lineup now, with the young guns taking over the bulk of the production. But that’s a pretty good mix of young skill and veteran presence, and Benn and Joe Pavelski are quietly having impressive campaigns with 31 and 21 goals respectively.
Dallas also may be in the Kraken players’ heads a bit, after those two late goals in as many weeks. If the Kraken find themselves ahead by a goal, they may be questioning their ability to close out a game.
We also can’t forget the impact goalie Jake Oettinger can have on a series after he dazzled and nearly singlehandedly stole a playoff round from the Calgary Flames last season.
Los Angeles Kings
Season series: Kraken hold a 3-0-0 record against the Kings, one game left to play
This would be another super fun series that would surely involve some nastiness. It would take the Kings winning the Pacific Division over Vegas but also finishing behind the winner of the Central Division for this matchup to come to fruition. OR, the Kraken would have to drop to the second wild card spot, and the Kings would need to have the best record in the Western Conference.
Why the Kraken can win against the Kings
All three of their contests against one another came in the first two months of the season, but the Kraken certainly hold a psychological edge over the Kings by winning all three. That could become a real advantage if the Kraken manage to knock off Los Angeles in their final regular-season meeting on April 1.
The Kings are beatable, in large part, because a couple of their mainstay players—while still productive—have gotten older, making Seattle’s speed a valuable weapon. Meanwhile, members of the Los Angeles youth movement are unproven in the playoffs; the Kings lost in the first round to Edmonton last season.
The Kings have a nasty top line of Kevin Fiala, Phillip Danault, and Viktor Arvidsson. Fiala has struggled in playoffs past, but if that line is clicking come playoff time, they will be tough to stop. Adrian Kempe has also had a breakout season playing with Anze Kopitar and has scored a whopping 36 goals.
LA has had a lot of power-play success this season, too, with similar numbers in that area to Colorado.
Our prediction
Do we think the Kraken can win a playoff round? Yes, we do.
They have proven throughout the season that they can skate with anybody, and if they get Andre Burakovsky back by then (he’s gotta come back by then, right?), they have the depth to roll four effective lines.
They also have proven to be an excellent road team; that is a good sign for Seattle, which—as a wild card team—is unlikely to have home-ice “advantage” for any round of the playoffs.
Do we think the Kraken can make a “deep” playoff run? Probably not yet.
Seattle’s success in the playoffs this season will depend on which version of the team shows up. Will it be the group that dominated in November and January? Or the one that fizzled in December and February? Either way, we just don’t think the Kraken have the combination of skill, grit, and goaltending needed to make a run at a Stanley Cup yet.
If the front office thought this was the time to make a deep run, they would have made moves at the trade deadline.
It has been a good road trip as the Kraken have taken care of business with five out of six points in the standings so far, including a dominant performance in Nashville Saturday. That 7-2 win created even more space between the Kraken and Predators in the standings. The win over Nashville might have been the most convincing win of the trip, but I feel the Dallas win to kick things off was the most impressive.
The Dallas game
Just over a week prior to the Tuesday night Dallas game, the Stars dominated the Kraken at Climate Pledge Arena in a 5-2 win. Philipp Grubauer left that game with an illness and was replaced by Martin Jones. It was one of those “bottom of the rollercoaster” moments that had me skip a breath when I looked at the standings. When the boys rolled into Dallas, I was more than a little nervous.
Adding more fuel to my nervousness, we found out Joey Daccord would be getting the start in net instead of Jones, as Grubauer was still recovering from his illness. That game also featured another late six-on-five goal against the Kraken, this one coming with just 0.7 left in regulation, forcing overtime for the Stars. It had all the makings of another squandered opportunity for a Kraken win. To the boys’ credit, they were able to bounce back with a silky overtime victory on a stretch pass to Adam Larsson. That’s right, a stretch pass to Adam Larsson.
NEVER A DOUBT! LARSSON WINS IT IN OT! 🚨
Incredible bank pass by McCann to send the Big Cat in on a breakaway. Great patience, puck protection, and hands by Larsson to tuck it behind Oettinger.
Mathematically, the Nashville Predators appeared to be the biggest threat to the Kraken’s playoff chances. But realistically, the Preds are cooked, which is why I do not think Saturday’s 7-2 beat down was as impressive as the Dallas game. The Predators were missing Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg, not to mention they traded away Mattias Ekholm and Tanner Jeannot at the trade deadline. Seattle should have expected to take at least three out of four points in Nashville, and they took care of business there.
Leading or trailing
The Kraken have scored the first goal in each of the last three games, and they have five out of six points in those games. The prior five games, the first goal of the game was scored by the opponent, and they were just 1-3-1 in those contests. In his post-game press conference after last Saturday’s Edmonton game, coach Dave Hakstol alluded to the fact that it is hard to play from behind in this league.
This is obviously an oversimplification and is more of a symptom than a cause. It is something to keep an eye on in future games.
Other Kraken musings:
Since January, the math to get into the playoffs has always been on the Kraken’s side, but I will not sleep easy until they clinch. That said, I did sleep a little easier on Saturday night.
The Kraken scored seven goals against Predators goaltender Juuse Saros on Saturday. This is the first time in his career he has allowed seven goals in a game.
Morgan Geekie moved to wing versus Nashville on Saturday. He seemed to fit in well with Jaden Schwartz and Alex Wennberg, but this is still a placeholder for when Andre Burakovsky comes back.
Even though Geekie plays limited minutes when centering the fourth line, he is an important center to have in the lineup. He leads the team in face-off percentage since Jan. 1 and is the only right-handed center on the Kraken’s roster.
The Kraken have not trailed in the last three games.
Joey Daccord has done everything the Kraken organization has asked of him since they selected him from Ottawa in the Expansion Draft. He deserved the opportunity in Dallas, and it was nice to see him get a second start and put in another solid performance in the first Nashville game.
I was lucky enough to make the trip to watch both Nashville games in person this week. I have been to Nashville several times and have thoroughly enjoyed it every time. If you are a hockey fan, put Nashville on your list to catch a game someday; you will not regret it.
There can be a case made for Jared McCann being the most underrated player in the league right now. He notched his 35th goal of the season Saturday and has 16 points over 12 games in the month of March. We all know him well, but he just does not get talked about nearly enough, and the coolest thing about it, he does not care. I love seeing his interviews because he seems to only care about winning.
Daniel Sprong leads the NHL in 5v5 scoring per 60 with 3.36 goals per 60.
The Kraken have one of the worst differentials between their home and away records, and I have no explanation for it.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
This will not be an easy week for the Kraken. Monday, the Kraken are in Minnesota for a tough matchup against a hot team, and the Los Angeles Kings visit Climate Pledge on Saturday. Both the Wild and the Kings have a lot to play for as far as playoff seeding impacts, and both teams are possible first-round matchups for the Kraken.
On Monday, I want to see how well the Kraken compete against a Wild team playing excellent hockey without its best player in the lineup, Kirill Kaprizov.
The Kraken-Kings game on Saturday should be fun. I feel the Kraken stack up well with the Kings and envision an excellent Stanley Cup Playoff matchup, should those teams square off in rounds one or two. In the second game of the season, the same matchup got a bit nasty. While I am not ready to declare the Kings as the No. 1 rivalry with the Kraken, they are one of the frontrunners. A playoff matchup could cement the rivalry. Saturday night could be a preview of that playoff matchup and could get some of the nastiness we might see in the playoffs.
Sandwiched between the Wild game in Minnesota tonight and the Kings game on Saturday is the Ducks at Climate Pledge on Thursday. There are no automatic wins in hockey, especially this time of year, but it would be nice to see the Kraken take care of business again, facing one of the worst teams in the league.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Daniel Sprong (SEA) – Sprong has three goals in the last three games on the alleged fourth line. With 19 goals on the season, he is making a convincing argument to stay in the lineup, even when Burakovsky returns.
Carson Soucy (SEA) – Soucy had only two assists over the last three games, but I felt he played extremely well in the two games in Nashville, shutting down the Predators and making good decisions with the puck in the Kraken defensive zone.
Shane Wright (SEA/WIN) – Wright has a nine-game point streak playing for the Windsor Spitfires, with 18 points in that stretch to wrap up the regular season in the OHL. Windsor ended the season as the top seed of the Western Conference and will face the Kitchener Rangers in the first round of the playoffs. That series will kick off Thursday.
Goal of the week
Another Seattle Kraken prospect is having a heck of a season. Fifth-round selection from the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, Jacob Melanson notched his 50th goal of the season with this snipe.
On the final day of the @QMJHL season, @PhoenixSherbroo forward and #SeaKraken prospect Jacob Melanson reached the 5⃣0⃣-goal mark!
Jacob Melanson a marqué son 50e but de la saison, samedi, lors de la dernière journée du calendrier régulier! 👏🏻 pic.twitter.com/8QmosLTFhg
Melanson has already signed his entry-level contract with the Kraken and will more than likely be playing in Coachella Valley next season.
Chart of the week
The game against the Dallas Stars featured another goal against for the Kraken with the opposing team’s goalie pulled, which caused a bit of a “here-we-go-again” vibe on Twitter. The Kraken ended up winning the game, which seemed to cool the angst, but it made me want to pull the numbers on how common these goals are against the Kraken.
As you can see, the Kraken are one of the worst in the league at a pure volume standpoint of allowing a goal with the opposing goalie pulled. Important to note, though, this stat is not a perfect proxy for really evaluating the Kraken’s play when the opposing team has an extra skater, since it does not provide a rate of allowing goals. The Kraken could be leading more one-goal games, which will cause more opportunity for opposing teams to pull their goalie. To simplify it more, the Kraken could be leading in the third period more frequently than other teams, and this would be considered a good thing. I might dig into this a bit deeper in a future post to really evaluate the impact here.
Those are your Monday Musings. If there are any questions, thoughts, or areas you want me to explore in future musings, leave a note in the comments section. Thank you reading. Let’s go Kraken!
