The 3-2 Kraken loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday unfolded largely as expected. It marked the Kraken’s first game after the All-Star break and bye week, while the Flyers were playing their third game since their break. Although the shot count might tell a different story, Seattle hung in there and battled, but to no avail. With a challenging February schedule ahead, the Kraken will need to figure out how to steal some of these games if they are going to have any chance at playing meaningful games in March.
“What’s up with Matty?”
We received a question on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast mailbag last week asking, “What’s up with Matty?” In case you haven’t been paying attention, Matty Beniers has just six goals in his first 46 games played this season versus 17 goals in his first 46 games played last season. I did not have too much to offer to the conversation other than it seems like there have been stretches where he has been afraid to shoot.
That is a common media narrative that gets thrown around when players are going through slumps, though. Can we test my theory? Welcome to my Sunday project. (Coincidentally, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic also put out a “deep dive” article on Beniers Monday, but theirs focused on his defensive prowess. It’s an interesting article, so give that a read in addition to the below to get the full scope of the state of Matty’s game.)
First, I looked at Beniers’ shots per game and shot attempts per game. If my theory is accurate, the numbers would show a year-over-year decline.
Ok, it looks like there may be something to my theory. There is a decline, but the .18 decrease in shots per game is only a reduction of 10 percent compared to last season, whereas the drop of 11 goals per game from 17 at this point last season is a reduction of 65 percent. Are shots the best proxy for a player’s willingness to shoot? Probably not.
To increase the sample size, I looked at Matty’s shot attempts per game compared to last season. For those that might not know, shot attempts include shots on net, missed shots, and shots that get blocked.
Wait a second, that shows an increase in shooting season over season. This increase is a little misleading, though, because Beniers is averaging roughly 40 more seconds of ice time per game this season and therefore has more time to get shot attempts. If we account for extra time on ice, the shot attempt rate is roughly the same compared to last season. Still, my theory of Beniers being afraid to shoot at times suddenly isn’t standing up.
I went further down the rabbit hole, and over to NaturalStatTrick.com, looking into the rate of high-danger chances Matty has generated this season compared to last.
I then looked at his shot attempts on a map (minus blocked shots) to see if there was anything that stood out season over season.
There isn’t a huge difference season over season, other than a few more shots from farther out in 2022-23. Let’s see how his shot attempts look in man-advantage scenarios.
When you isolate the power-play shot attempts (minus blocked shots), you can see that Beniers has taken almost all his shots to the goalies right this season, as opposed to shooting almost exclusively from the goalie’s left last season. I don’t think this is a contributing factor in Matty’s lower production this season (it’s really just how he’s being deployed on the power play), but I did find it interesting so thought I would share.
After all that, I still did not reach a firm conclusion as to what is impacting Matty’s production this season. He is still very young at just 21 years old and has plenty of room to develop, so I am not overly concerned about his drop in production in this sophomore season.
Like many of his teammates, he started the season cold. For a while, he looked like he was returning to form before an injury took him out of the lineup for five games. He might also be feeling pressure with higher expectations being thrust upon him and knowing that he is up for a new contract this summer. It was one game, but he looked good on Saturday night, and although he did not get a point on the play, he contributed to the first goal in multiple ways.
Other Musings
The Kraken have 52 points in 51 games. There have been 25 teams since the 2005-06 season that had 52 points at the 51-game mark, and only four of those 25 made the playoffs.
I couldn’t remember the last time I’ve seen an unsuccessful offside coach’s challenge, so when Flyers coach John Tortorella contested Tomas Tatar’s goal on Saturday night, I mentally took the Kraken goal off the board. I was pleasantly surprised when Tortorella’s challenge failed. Scott Malone of ROOT Sports tweeted that it’s the first time an offside challenge has ever failed in a Kraken game.
Andre Burakovsky had five of his shot attempts blocked on Saturday night. He leads the current Kraken forwards with 41 percent of his shot attempts being blocked. I honestly don’t how to interpret that stat, but I was frustrated with his shot selection that night, so I looked it up.
When healthy, I think Burakovsky is an awesome player, but he looks nowhere close to what he showed at the beginning of last season. He has never had a season with a shooting percentage under 10 percent. His current shooting percentage this season is a paltry 3.6.
Chris Driedger posted his third shutout of the season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds on Saturday. It is unlikely, but I wonder if a team would consider trading for him as a potential second or third goalie for a playoff run.
I think Carson Rehkopf is becoming the Kraken’s top prospect and has potential to play in the NHL next season. He had three more goals this past weekend over two games and now has 40 on the season. Meanwhile, Jagger Firkus set a Moose Jaw Warriors record with points in 24 consecutive games.
David Goyette (SDB) – The Kraken prospect had three goals and six assists in his last three games for the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL. He shares the top spot for points this season in the OHL.
Andrei Loshko (ROU) – A Kraken fourth-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had a hat trick and two assists for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in a 11-0 win on Thursday night.
Logan Morrison (CVF) – The undrafted free agent signing by the Seattle Kraken had two goals in the Coachella Valley Firebirds’ only game this week. Morrison is having a solid first pro season with 10 goals and 21 assists in 45 games with the Firebirds.
Chart of the Week
After last year’s second-in-the-league 11.6 team shooting percentage, we expected a bit of a regression for the Kraken in 2023-24… but maybe not quite like this:
Goal of the Week
Barrett Hall was a Seattle Kraken sixth-round selection in the 2022 NHL Draft and currently plays for the St. Cloud State Huskies (Piper Shaw and Will Borgen’s alma matter).
The Kraken battled back to put themselves in a position to compete for a playoff spot, but they are headed in the opposite direction compared to some of the teams competing for the same wild card positions. Calgary, Minnesota, St. Louis, Nashville, and Los Angeles are a collective 8-0-0 since the All-Star break.
The next three games for the Kraken pose a challenge. They face the Devils Monday, Islanders Tuesday, and the Bruins on Thursday. The Devils and Islanders are fighting for the playoffs and will be coming in desperate, while the Bruins are one of the top teams in the league. Points will be hard to come by in these games, but if the Kraken take anything under three points, we can all but write off a shot at the playoffs. This might be the do-or-die week for the Kraken.
As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any thoughts or questions, please let us know in the comments section.
We’re back! After an outrageously long hiatus, the Seattle Kraken finally return to game action Saturday at the Flyers, kicking off a critical four-game road trip through Philadelphia, New Jersey, New York (Islanders), and Boston.
Now that Seattle’s players have reconvened in the City of Brotherly Love after their vacations to far-off destinations, this felt like a good time to reflect on what has transpired so far this season and consider where this team might go in the remaining 32 games on the schedule.
Entering play on Saturday, the Kraken sit at 21-19-10, good for 52 standings points and two points out of the last wild card spot in the Western Conference. The St. Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, and Calgary Flames are ahead of Seattle but can all theoretically be tied or jumped in just one night if everyone loses and Seattle wins.
So, the Kraken are very much within striking distance of a playoff spot, despite an up-and-down campaign so far.
Reasons to be optimistic
If you’ve stuck with Sound Of Hockey for a while, you know we generally lean toward optimism. It is way more fun to be bullish on Seattle’s chances than it is to be bearish, because at the end of the day, all we want to do is cover a winner.
Exiting the break, the Kraken occupy an awkward spot somewhere between bullishness and bearishness, but there is reason to be optimistic that the team will make the postseason for the second season in a row.
Good health
As we are writing this, we are simultaneously knocking on a big piece of wood. The Kraken are fully healthy for the first time since Opening Night, when Brandon Tanev took a nasty open-ice hit in Vegas and missed the subsequent month of hockey. (Worth noting, Alison Lukan reported that Justin Schultz did not participate in morning skate in Philadelphia due to personal reasons.) That should bring Seattle’s fans a nice dose of optimism.
Though he is still technically listed on injured reserve, we believe that even Pierre-Edouard Bellemare—who hasn’t played since blocking a shot with his foot in a 4-3 overtime loss at the Dallas Stars on Dec. 18—could be set to return to game action. Although he doesn’t move the needle offensively, it’s a luxury to have a veteran center like Bellemare, who can kill penalties and win face-offs, waiting in the wings. Expect PEB to be activated off IR in the coming days.
When the season started, we recall wondering which forward would be scratched from the lineup between Bellemare, Tye Kartye, and Kailer Yamamoto. Those questions didn’t linger for long, though, because Tanev immediately got hurt, meaning there were lineup spots for all those forwards. But now, the team has added Tomas Tatar to the top of the forward corps, which adds another question about who plays and who sits.
After a first half riddled with injuries and illnesses to key players, it will be interesting to see how coach Dave Hakstol manages a full roster moving forward. We loved the look he showed during the latter stages of Seattle’s nine-game win streak, when Jared McCann and Andre Burakovsky were part of a de facto “fourth” line. Seattle looked the best it has looked all season during those couple games when it was truly rolling four lines that could score, so we would love to see Hakstol go back to something similar in the near future.
Can this group stay healthy the rest of the way?
Joey Daccord
One positive that came out of Seattle’s many injury woes was the emergence of netminder Joey Daccord as a bona fide NHLer and potentially as a true No. 1 backstop. It was telling that even after Philipp Grubauer returned from a lower-body injury that kept him sidelined from Dec. 9 through Jan. 21, Daccord still started the four remaining games before the break.
We wondered for a while if Seattle was relying too heavily on Daccord, but after his play cooled from red-hot to more of a magenta hue, he was still more than solid between the pipes.
Daccord has impressed in his first full NHL season, posting a 15-9-9 record, 2.32 goals-against average, and .921 save percentage. Seattle will need both Daccord and Grubauer to be effective down the stretch, but Joey has shown he can shoulder most of the load if needed.
Daccord is a big reason for optimism.
This group can do it
Another reason to be optimistic is that the majority of this group was here last season and knows how to reach the playoffs. The Kraken have had some painful dips in play in the first 50 games, but they overcame a lot in the last month before the long All-Star break/bye week kicked in.
As Hakstol said after Seattle’s painful loss in San Jose on Jan. 30, the team now controls its own destiny. If they can get hot in these next few games and get themselves on a roll, the Kraken have the ability to make it to the postseason and even surprise some higher-ranked opponents.
Reasons to be pessimistic
Of course, based on Seattle’s current situation, making the playoffs is anything but guaranteed at this point. As our own John Barr pointed out in our recent Roundtable article, only 33 percent of teams with 52 points through 50 games end up making the playoffs.
That would indicate the odds are stacked against Seattle. While it looks like the Kraken are within arm’s reach of a wild card spot, leapfrogging one team is difficult in today’s NHL because of the potential three-point game that goes to overtime. Jumping over multiple teams is always tough, and as of the writing of this story, Seattle will need to get past at least three squads between now and the end of the season.
Post-break games are critical
We also believe that these first few games out of the break will be pivotal in helping general manager Ron Francis decide if he should be a seller or not at the March 8 trade deadline.
One would think that with improved health and plenty of rest, Seattle should come out of the break firing on all cylinders. But if you think back to last year, the Kraken embarked on a similar road trip upon returning to action, visiting all three New York Metropolitan teams, then Philadelphia, and then Winnipeg. The team went 1-3-1 on that trip and lost Burakovsky for the season in its first game back.
Our hope is that the Kraken learned from their mistakes and will come out of the break ready to go, but it is worth noting that the Flyers—Seattle’s opponent on Saturday—have already played two games since the pause and are 2-0-0 with wins over contenders in Florida and Winnipeg.
Deadline decisions looming
We don’t think the franchise is in a state yet where it should push its chips in and buy at the deadline, hoping to make a deep playoff run. So, the options will most likely be to again stand pat (like Francis did in 2022-23) or to sell off expiring contracts for draft picks (like he did in the team’s inaugural season).
Seattle has several important veteran players whose contracts are up after this season, including Jordan Eberle, Alex Wennberg, and Justin Schultz. All of those players have value on the trade market, but there will come a tipping point where Francis has to decide if these individuals are in the team’s future plans or not. If the team isn’t going anywhere this season, then the Kraken will want to salvage what they can and trade these players.
If the team comes out of the break sluggish, Francis may have no choice but to sell. At that point, the season would effectively be over.
What do you think, folks? Can the Kraken make the playoffs?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
A few weeks back, we reviewed the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents in a two-part series (Part I and Part II). This week, we will be jumping into the Kraken’s three restricted free agents (RFA’s) and reviewing what might be in store for them during the offseason. The Coachella Valley Firebirds also have five additional RFA’s in the Kraken development system. We will focus more on the RFA’s currently playing with Seattle but will also touch briefly on the ones playing for the Firebirds.
There are many rules around RFA’s that complicate contract negotiations. If you need a refresher on the free agency process and steps, Sound Of Hockey‘s own Curtis Isacke wrote a piece on free agency last year for review. The appendix outlines the terms associated with free agency, and there is also a section dedicated to RFA’s.
The Seattle Kraken RFA process is a long one that can last up to 18 months. It technically started back on July 1, 2023, when the players in question first became eligible to sign contract extensions. At the conclusion of the process, the hope for both sides is typically a finalized contract. These negotiations can sometimes drag into the following season, causing a player to miss time, but that is rare.
Here are the high-level steps RFA’s will go through:
Possibility of contract extension
Qualifying offers extended
Arbitration (if the player is eligible; Matty Beniers is the only Kraken RFA that does not have arbitration rights)
Contract negotiations (short-term bridge or long-term deal?)
The Kraken RFA’s are:
Matty Beniers (Age 21) – Target: Re-sign for two years at $5M AAV
Matty Beniers at Kraken practice. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
After dazzling as a rookie and capturing the Calder Trophy last season, Beniers has found himself in a sophomore slump season. His scoring pace has dipped by around 40 percent, signaling his value in negotiations has decreased and a bridge deal might be in his future.
While the scoring decline is noticeable, it’s crucial to consider the context. Through 50 games, the Kraken have scored 140 goals, down from the 177 goals they scored in 50 games last season. Beniers’ value also extends beyond pure offense. He’s a skilled two-way center, contributing defensively and driving puck possession. But, he still needs to produce offensively to warrant the massive contract his camp surely wants.
With no extension signed to date, it is questionable if a deal will be done before the offseason. Had Beniers maintained his rookie scoring pace, a maximum-term, eight-year contract would likely be on the table. Given the current scoring slump, a bridge deal (one-to-four years) appears more probable.
Looking at recent bridge deals for young, talented players offers some insight:
Trevor Zegras: three-year bridge at $5.75M AAV
Pierre-Luc Dubois: two-year bridge at $5M AAV, followed by a one-year bridge at $6M AAV
Despite the scoring dip, Beniers’ overall value remains high.
Defensive Prowess: His two-way play adds considerable value beyond the goal sheet.
Calder Trophy Winner: His past achievements and potential shouldn’t be disregarded.
Age and Development: At 21, Beniers is still developing and has plenty of room for improvement.
Trade options:
As the franchise’s first-ever draft pick and face of the team, the Kraken are unlikely to trade Beniers. We will not be reviewing trade options.
Prediction:
We anticipate a bridge deal in the two-to-four-year range with $4.5M-$5.5M AAV. This will give Beniers a chance to rediscover his scoring touch and earn a potential eight-year extension while still young.
Eeli Tolvanen (Age 24) – Target: Re-sign for 5 years at $4M AAV
Eeli Tolvanen’s arrival in Seattle via a savvy waiver wire claim has quickly become one of the NHL’s biggest waiver success stories. Now, as the 24-year-old winger approaches the end of his current contract, the Seattle Kraken face a crucial decision: bridge deal or long-term commitment?
Eeli Tolvanen and Yanni Gourde celebrate a goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Tolvanen’s offensive prowess is undeniable. He’s on pace for a career-high point total this season, showcasing a potent blend of goal-scoring ability and playmaking. His physicality is another asset, leading all Kraken forwards in hits (136), and he is also second in blocked shots (52) through 50 games.
Contract comparables:
Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes): five years, $4.3M AAV
Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis Blues): five years, $5M AAV
Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild): eight years, $5.25M AAV
Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): five years, $4.5M AAV
Complicating factors:
One wrinkle in the negotiations is Tolvanen’s arbitration eligibility. If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, an independent arbitrator will determine his contract value. This adds an element of uncertainty for both the Kraken and Tolvanen and gives the player more leverage.
Another factor to consider is Tolvanen’s unique skill set. Most of the comparable contracts listed above feature players that contribute on the penalty kill. The Finnish winger primarily thrives on five-on-five as a solid two-way player and brings an accurate shot to the power play.
Trade options:
While trades involving restricted free agents outperforming their current contracts are uncommon, since teams typically hold onto their relatively young talent, some recent deals offer insights into potential return value.
Artturi Lehkonen – Colorado surrendered a second-round pick and former first-round prospect Justin Barron for Lehkonen in 2022.
Sam Bennett – Florida sent a package of a second-round pick and former second-round prospect Emil Heineman for Bennett and a sixth-round pick in 2021.
While Tolvanen’s power-play prowess surpasses those of the comparables, it’s unlikely to push his trade value to a first-round pick. A target trade return should be two second-round picks/prospects or better. Despite the potential trade haul, the Kraken will likely prioritize re-signing Tolvanen unless an exceptional offer emerges.
The 2023 Tampa Bay Lightning trade for Tanner Jeannot serves as an example of an offer potentially too good to refuse. Nashville received a first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round draft pick, along with defenseman Cal Foote, for the feisty winger.
Prediction:
Despite the uncertainties, expect the Kraken to prioritize retaining Tolvanen long-term. Jared McCann and Vince Dunn were of similar age when they signed their deals with the Kraken and both will be 30 at the time their contracts come to term. We see the Kraken structuring this deal in a similar way but at a smaller dollar value than the $7.35M AAV deal for Dunn and the $5M AAV deal for McCann.
A five-year deal in the $4M-$4.5M AAV range seems like a reasonable outcome. While a longer-term contract isn’t out of the question, a five-year deal gives Tolvanen more options later in his career.
Kailer Yamamoto (Age 25) – Target: Trade for a fourth-round pick
Don’t let Kailer Yamamoto’s stature fool you. At 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the Seattle Kraken forward might be one of the smallest players in the NHL, but his heart and hustle are oversized. He came to the Kraken via free agency after being traded and then bought out of his last $3.2M contract by Detroit, but he is now a pending RFA with Seattle.
Kailer Yamamoto handles the puck. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Yamamoto’s tenacity is most evident on the forecheck, where he uses his low center of gravity to hound puck carriers; he is third on the team in takeaways minus giveaways. The Spokane native’s knack for entering the offensive zone with control translates to his high power play usage.
Yamamoto’s versatility adds another layer to his worth, his high career shooting percentage (14.1 percent) allows him to bump up the lineup when needed. Despite his fourth-line designation, Yamamoto’s advanced statistics are strong. He currently leads the Kraken in both Corsi and Fenwick percentage, suggesting that Yamamoto not only generates offense himself, but also elevates the play of his teammates when on the ice.
The Seattle Kraken only deploy Yamamoto about 12 minutes per game and have scratched him from the lineup on several occasions. In researching players to find comparable contracts, the search was narrowed to players that:
Average under 13 minutes per game.
Average over 90 seconds of power-play time per game.
Have under 20 points on the season.
Have played more than 25 games this season.
Only six players meet this criteria, and they either are playing at or near the league minimum salary or have signed a large deal and are not playing to their contract’s value. Yamamoto doesn’t fit in these categories, so we will not be looking at those comparables.
The small winger is only 25, so he does have one more year where he can play as an RFA. At this point, though, it is apparent the fourth-liner is not going to move the needle enough for the Seattle Kraken and has solidified himself as a depth player.
The winger is arbitration eligible, and a qualifying offer would have to match his current $1.5M AAV. For these reasons, we think it is unlikely the Kraken extend a qualifying offer to Yamamoto. The former Spokane Chief could still sign with the Kraken during free agency, and if that happens, you can expect another one-year deal in the neighborhood of $1M AAV.
Trade options:
The best trade to review is probably his own from Edmonton to Detroit, but there are a couple other options to review too:
Kailer Yamamoto – Detroit sent the infamous “Future Considerations” to Edmonton in 2023 and also received the signing rights of Klim Kostin.
Oskar Sundqvist – Detroit acquired a fourth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023
Rasmus Asplund – Nashville traded a seventh-round pick to Nashville in 2023
The only piece that has changed since Yamamoto’s last trade is his AAV is now $1.5M versus $3.2M when traded in 2023. Factoring in that Yamamoto is still an RFA and the Kraken can retain 50 percent of his contract, a playoff-bound team getting a depth winger with power play experience at a minimal cap hit does have some value. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is in the right range.
Prediction:
If the Kraken remain in the playoff hunt, they will probably hold onto Yamamoto through the end of the season. There are capable right wing fourth-line options in Coachella Valley with Kole Lind, Marian Studenic, and John Hayden available for call-ups, though, so if they get an offer for Yamamoto, the Kraken may be willing to trade him.
Down on the Farm [Moooo!]
Even when I type “Moooo”, I hear it in Sound Of Hockey Podcast host, Darren Brown’s voice. All five of the Coachella Valley Firebird RFA’s are arbitration eligible. This is not as much of a concern as at the NHL level, because most contracts will be two-way deals around league minimum, $775K AAV. All of these players make under $1M, so the qualifying offers will include a five percent increase. We will review each player and assign a “Qualify”, “Trade,” or “Let walk” tag to each player.
Kole Lind– Target: Trade The 25-year-old winger excels on the offensive side of the game, but his scoring successes have not translated to the NHL yet. Similar to Daniel Sprong, there are questions around his two-way play, which makes him a hard fit for the Kraken. He’s one of those guys that has been right on the cusp of making it in the NHL, though. The Kraken should look to trade the winger and package him with another player.
Ville Petman – Target: Qualify The Finnish winger was signed to a two-year deal in 2022 after showing promise in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, scoring 39 points in 59 games. Bringing him to the AHL have allowed the Kraken to evaluate how Petman adapts to the North American game and monitor his improvement. The 24-year-old left wing got off to a good start with 28 points in his first AHL season, but he unfortunately has not showed improvement this season. There are still enough positives to award Petman another contract, but don’t expect to see him on the Kraken roster any time soon.
Luke Henman – Target: Let walk The first player signed to a contract in Kraken franchise history, Henman was never signed to an entry-level deal by Carolina after being drafted in the fourth round in 2018. In his three years in the AHL, his offensive abilities have become stagnant, averaging 0.24 points per game. At 23, Henman still has time to develop, but making the NHL at this point is a going to be an uphill battle.
Marian Studenic – Target: Qualify Studenic is a hard-forechecking winger with a scoring touch. Listed at 165 pounds, he is on the lighter side but could fill a fourth-line type role. With one year remaining as RFA, we think the Kraken will make him a qualifying offer. Update, it has come to my attention that Studenic will actually be a Group 6 UFA at the end of the season. That means the Kraken would not make a qualifying offer, but rather just re-sign him.
Peetro Seppala – Target: Qualify Seppala is a left-shot defenseman that is getting good experience in the AHL. The Finn brings a mix of good puck-moving ability and improving offensive numbers in his two years with the Firebirds. He is behind Ryker Evans on the depth chart and still needs to develop his game, though. We think the Kraken will look to retain Seppala’s rights and extend him a qualifying offer.
Group 6 UFA Sound of Hockey’s own Curtis Isacke pointed out that Kole Lind and Martin Studenic will most likely be Group 6 UFA’s at the end of the season and he is absolutely correct. A full definition of a Group 6 UFA can be found here. A simplified definition is a player that is at least 25 years-old, played at least 3 professional seasons and played less than 80 games at the NHL level.
Overall:
Beniers’ development, Tolvanen’s retention, and Yamamoto’s future all paint a larger picture of Seattle’s commitment to building a contender. Balancing the Kraken’s short-term needs with long-term aspirations, the decisions made this offseason will be interesting to watch. Join the conversation below and let us know how you think the Kraken should handle their RFA’s.
We have officially reached the All-Star break/bye week.The Seattle Kraken are sitting fifth in the Pacific Division and two points behind the St. Louis Blues for the last playoff spot. We figured now would be a fine time for a good, old fashioned Sound Of Hockey Kraken Roundtable to take a pulse check on how we’re feeling about the season so far and what to expect the rest of the way.
Sound Of Hockey contributors Blaiz Grubic, Cameron Riggers, Curtis Isacke, John Barr, and Darren Brown all got together to answer some (not so) burning questions.
Enjoy!
Who is your outstanding performer of the season so far?
Blaiz: Joey Daccord. First, I was excited to see him even make the Kraken as the back-up this year. As he has taken over the starting job, I have enjoyed watching his style, especially how he plays the puck. This is something that makes me nervous in most goalies, but Daccord does it so well. I am in awe watching it.
Cameron: I think Vince Dunn. I love the consistency that he plays with, adding value to all facets of the game and playing with poise while not being afraid to lay a body out or get in someone else’s grill. I feel like I never notice him because he’s so seamless in his defensive style of play, and when I do notice him, it’s usually because he’s contributing offensively. He’s been underrated by many national circles for some time, and I think he’s really turned himself into a solid No. 1 defenseman.
John: As Blaiz mentioned, I think it has to be Joey Daccord. The budding star netminder has two shutouts and a .917 save percentage, and I don’t know where this team would be in the standings without him. It is great to see him get regular reps in the NHL, where we’re finding out what he’s capable of doing.
Honorable mention to Tomas Tatar. The Kraken traded for him for virtually nothing, and he has impressed me since he got here. He has been making his linemates better ever since his first day with the club.
Curtis: I agree that Daccord is probably the performer who stands apart from the pack. Advanced metrics rank his performance preventing shots from becoming goals somewhere between above average and elite. And, as I investigated (Part I, Part II), he may be having an even more significant impact on the game beyond that.
But since Daccord has received significant shine already, I need to call out Seattle’s one consistent goal scorer: Jared McCann. Coming off a 40-goal season, he has 20 goals so far this year, which is a 33-goal pace and represents 14.4 percent of the team total.
Pair this with solid defense and the ability to provide value on all special teams units, and I shudder to think where Seattle would be without McCann. Before the season, I was guarded in my expectations for the Kraken because I didn’t see the goal scoring beyond McCann. At least he has held up his end of the bargain.
Darren: Joey! Joey! Joey!
What is the biggest disappointment of the season so far?
Cameron: I’m hesitant to say the younger players, but their production hasn’t met my expectations coming into the season. Seattle has only gotten 19 points from Matty Beniers, 15 from Tye Kartye, and four from Ryker Evans, though his playing time has been limited. I know it’s difficult to expect the world from those players, given that they’re all still so young, but from the expectations they created for themselves last year (especially Beniers and Kartye), I was hopeful for a bit more.
John: I love love love Andre Burakovsky, but he has been a big disappointment this year. ‘Burky’ has one of the best shots on the team but only has one goal over the 19 games he has played. I know he has missed a lot of hockey over the last year due to injury, so I think it is just a matter of time before he returns to form.
Darren: I’m with you, John. I keep waiting for Burakovsky to Burrrrreak out (get it?), but it just hasn’t happened. The real disappointment with him, though, is just how much time he’s had to miss again this season. After rehabbing from a serious groin injury all offseason, he returned for a few games, got hurt again, played two periods, and got hurt a third time. That’s a tough, tough go for that guy.
He’s been a streaky scorer historically, so maybe after this break he can catch fire.
Curtis: You’re all right, those are disappointments. Given that Beniers is still working through clear development challenges, I’ll focus on Burakovsky.
Even when he’s been out there, he hasn’t been a factor. And there are only so many times you can rationalize his lack of production by telling yourself, “To be fair, he has only played x games in the last two months.”
I don’t think he’s found a comfortable fit in Seattle’s north-south, forechecking style. He is more inclined to slow the game, possess the puck as a playmaker, and send passes east-west. Stylistically, it just hasn’t clicked yet. He hasn’t been “bad,” but he should be one of the team’s higher-end play drivers, and that simply hasn’t happened. The skills are there, but he rarely looks in sync with his teammates. With three years left on his deal after this one, Burakovsky and the coaching staff need to find a solution.
Blaiz: The slow start to the season was a bummer for me. After the high of the playoffs last year, it was just a letdown to start the year with four straight losses. After that, it was even more disappointing to see the team just treading water for a bit before a swift kick to a body part resulting in a medium-body injury when the Kraken lost eight straight.
Are you buying, selling, or holding at the deadline? (If you are holding explain when you will decide… i.e., After the first road trip.)
John: I don’t know if you can consider this selling, but I would always be listening. I don’t think any of the players are untouchable, which means it just comes down to price. Even if the Kraken are in the playoff picture, I think they can move a pending free agent or two for the right price.
The biggest need for the Kraken right now is high-end talent, and the only real way to get that talent is through the draft. Any draft pick the Kraken get in a trade is likely a mid-to-late second-round draft pick. Second-round picks can turn into good players, but they rarely turn into elite-tier NHL performers.
Blaiz: I think it depends on if the Kraken have a realistic chance to make the playoffs. I am holding until that is not an option. The Kraken have a tough February schedule, so in the later part of the month, we should have a clearer picture.
I typically plan for the best, meaning they will make the playoffs. Assuming that happens, I am still holding; I am not ready to mortgage the future yet. That said, I do believe every player has a price so if something comes up that can make the team better, the Kraken should jump on it.
Darren: Blaiz and I are in the same camp here. While my heart would LOVE to see Seattle make a splash and go for it, my brain knows that’s not how Ron Francis operates, nor should he at this moment in time. I would expect either A.) what the team did in the inaugural season—selling all expiring contracts for draft picks—if Seattle is out of the playoffs at the deadline, or B.) standing pat, like the team did last season and doing what they can with that group.
Cameron: I really think that this next road trip to some of the Eastern Conference’s top teams will have a real say in where this club will go. I don’t think it’s in the position to be in either full-on buying or selling mode. Frankly, the Kraken exist in that awkward middle ground between competitive and not, but if they go something like 0-3-1 after the break, and the teams around them stay consistent, then they will be almost forced to shop their expiring UFA’s around.
A decision needs to be made soon, though. I personally think selling is the best thing for the future of this team, but what the Kraken do depends on where this next road trip takes them.
Curtis: Barring something truly unforeseen, Seattle shouldn’t be a “buyer” at the deadline. I don’t think that makes sense given where the team is in the arc of its roster and player development pipeline.
The team has a number of expiring contracts for players in their early-to-mid 30’s who would be risky to re-sign, given their ages. This makes me strongly inclined to listen to offers. That said, I agree that the team should hold its water as long as possible. The trade deadline is March 8, so make a tentative decision about whether to move forward with selling after the Feb. 22 home game against Vancouver.
Give us a reason to be optimistic or pessimistic about the last 32 games
John: I am generally an optimistic person, but I wake up aware of the challenges of the day. Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs. That means 66 percent do not make it. That said, I do believe this team will continue to make a run at one of the wild card spots. Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, and Burakovsky have not been sharp since coming back from their respective injuries, and I think it is just a matter of time before they get going again.
Cameron: I’ll give a reason for optimism and one for pessimism.
Optimistic – After their road trip, the Kraken will play 15 of their next 19 games at home, practically spending their entire end of February and all of March in Seattle. They won’t really leave the Pacific time zone either, aside from a few central time one-offs. This streaky team can really play into becoming a more consistent club over the next two months by the favorable schedule, which will allow them to settle into a routine.
Pessimistic – The schedule lightens up for the teams around the Kraken in the standings as well, with Nashville, St. Louis, and Minnesota all set to enjoy easier strengths of schedule. Seattle still has to play Boston twice and Winnipeg three times, so there are some tough matchups ahead.
Blaiz: I’m optimistic. Since Daccord has taken the reins, the Kraken have a .659 points percentage in 22 games. If they can maintain that pace, they would capture 42 points, putting them at 94 on the season. That is definitely in the conversation for making the playoffs. Adding to what John researched, of the 33 percent of teams that made the playoffs after racking up 52 points in 50 games, 55 percent of those teams got into the playoffs with 93 or fewer points. This shows that 94 points would put the Kraken in a decent position to sneak in.
Curtis: Looking at the team’s on-ice play, I’m optimistic. Seattle’s roster is almost entirely healthy now, and the last three games against St. Louis, Columbus, and San Jose were actually three of the team’s strongest in terms of controlling overall shot quality (yes, I know they went 1-1-1 in those games and faced two bad opponents). Add to that strong play in goal, and there is reason to be confident this team will perform well down the stretch.
I must admit to some nagging pessimism, though. As has been discussed, the numbers indicate it is still an uphill climb to make the playoffs. But, more than that, I worry the team will get trapped in an “in between” position where it isn’t a true playoff threat but doesn’t sell either and misses a chance to acquire additional assets for the future. It’s an uncomfortable way to watch these games.
Darren: I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned the team’s health, Curtis. I’m sometimes too optimistic for my own good, but Seattle can win in a lot of different ways when healthy. Dave Hakstol has only had the luxury of rolling four lines for a handful of games this season, and coming out of the break, the team should be as healthy as it has been since Opening Night (and deeper than they were on Opening Night, since Tatar wasn’t here yet).
If they can stay relatively healthy down the stretch, I think the Kraken have a strong chance at the playoffs.
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Now it is your turn. What would be your responses to these questions? Leave your thoughts in the comment section.
Tuesday was a tough night for Kraken fans, who watched their team mostly dominate the first 40 minutes against the bottom-dwelling San Jose Sharks, but a scoreless first two periods left the Seattle faithful feeling uneasy. If you watched that game rooting for the visitors, you knew what was coming in the third period.
Indeed, Marc-Edouard Vlasic broke through with a seeing-eye shot from the left point at 7:27 of the third period, bringing devastation and big reactions from across Kraken Nation. In the end, Seattle sent 32 pucks toward goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, finding zero offensive success on the night and getting shutout for the fifth time this season.
It WAS a trap!
The Kraken should have listened to Admiral Ackbar.
Every indication entering this game pointed toward Tuesday being a trap game for the Kraken. It was the last game before a long break, and Seattle’s players surely had their minds at least partially wandering to the vacations they had planned (well, except Oliver Bjorkstrand, who famously had to cancel his trip to San Diego in favor of a visit to Toronto for the NHL All-Star Game).
Mix in an almost empty building, an assumption the Kraken would win, and recent memories of the last time Seattle played San Jose (a 7-1 bloodbath after which the Sharks left Climate Pledge Arena feeling embarrassed), and you just knew this game could go in the wrong direction.
Coach Dave Hakstol acknowledged after Seattle’s win over Columbus on Sunday that bringing full focus would be important for the game Tuesday, and we do think the players brought a decent effort. It wasn’t the best they’ve had all season, but it was enough to beat San Jose most nights. Still, they didn’t do enough to get inside and get Blackwood moving in his goal crease, and the result was an uninspiring offensive performance.
Sure, the Sharks are one of the worst teams in the NHL, but they’re also professional hockey players who came into Tuesday with a chip on their shoulder. They defended well and got great goaltending, and the Kraken didn’t have a strong enough performance to break through.
Stay the course
So what should we feel about this dreadful loss? Is it truly time to jump ship and call for an organizational fire sale? Should Seattle cut ties with players on expiring contracts and play the Shane Wrights, Ryker Evanses, and Ryan Wintertons of the world?
Our short answers to each of the three questions above are, “Angry for now, but move on,” “No,” and “No.”
Kraken fans should be incensed about the outcome of that game, but it is not yet time to jump ship, and it is not yet time to sell off veteran players for draft capital. The Kraken’s playoff chances are hanging by a thread, but one game (or even a handful of games) does not an 82-game season make.
As terrible as that game felt—and don’t get us wrong, it was terrible to lose to the Sharks on a night when the Kraken just had to have the two points—it didn’t do that much damage to the team’s playoff outlook. It was a massive missed opportunity because the Kraken could have jumped back to level in the standings with Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Nashville, who all have 54 points (worth noting, the Kraken and Predators have each played 50 games, whereas the Blues have played 49, and the Kings have played just 47). But, it certainly didn’t eliminate Seattle from contention, and a lot can happen in Seattle’s remaining 32 games.
We aren’t trying to sugarcoat the loss; it was bad, horrendous, painful… whatever negative adjective you want to use to describe it, it was that. But it didn’t cost Seattle the season.
Hakstol talked us off the ledge
Every now and then, Hakstol’s level-headed approach to media availability is just what Kraken fans and media need. Even I—a perpetual optimist about the team’s chances—was ready to throw in the towel after that loss.
But when asked if he wants his players to spend the break dwelling on this performance, Hakstol guffawed and put things into perspective. He said Seattle lost a hockey game to a group that worked their tails off and defended hard, and the Kraken were disappointed to have lost. But did he want the team to sulk about the loss during their time away from the rink?
“We’ve worked extremely hard over the last couple of months, digging in and doing some good things to put ourselves in a position [to compete for a playoff spot]… It’s a sprint to the finish from there. It’s a 32-game playoff hunt, and for that, I want our guys to wash this pretty quickly, get a little bit of rest, and come back with a great mindset.”
He also used the phrase “control our own destiny,” which the Kraken can still do, even after this inconsistent stretch of play since Seattle’s 13-game point streak ended on Jan. 15.
Post-break games are pivotal
So we aren’t ready to jump ship yet, and the Kraken front office shouldn’t be cutting any ties either. But… BUT… the games after the All-Star pause and bye week will be make or break. The Kraken need to get out of the gate hot after this hiatus, or the time to sell will creep up very quickly.
Thinking back to last season, the Kraken were starting to sputter, having won eight in a row, then dropping four of their last seven before this break. But they won the last game before the All-Star Game, 3-1 over Columbus and went away with good feelings.
They exited the break with a five-game road trip to the East Coast (similar to what they face starting on Feb. 10 this season) and stunk, dropping four of five on the trip and seven out of 10 from Feb. 7 to Feb. 26. If the Kraken do something similar after the break this season, they will be cooked. So, those games on the other side are critical.
How are you feeling, folks? What’s your response to Elmo?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
This is Part II of What the Kraken can do with their pending unrestricted free agents. Part I can be found here. In Part I, we reviewed the Seattle’s pending UFA’s that are over 30 years old and outlined what can be done with each of the four players. For Part II, we will shift our focus to the trio of UFA’s under 30 years old.
Kraken UFA players
For review, these are the seven pending UFA’s in question, split by over/under 30 years of age.
Alex Wennberg (Age 29) – Target: re-sign for four years at $4.5 million AAV
Alex Wennberg was signed to a three-year, $13.5M deal as a free agent in the days following the Expansion Draft. Wennberg is one of the more divisive players on the Kraken, as fans either love what he brings to the team or desperately want him to shoot more.
Let’s start this with a little quiz, but don’t worry; it will be easy. (Hint: The answer to every question is “Alex Wennberg.”)
Iron-man Adam Larsson has played every Kraken game, but who is next in games played? Wennberg. 208 games and counting.
What Kraken forward has the most blocked shots in franchise history? Wennberg. 156. The next closest forward is Brandon Tanev at 121.
What forward has averaged the most ice time per game over the first three seasons? Wennberg. 18:23 average time-on-ice per game. He also averages the highest power-play-plus-penalty-kill time of any forward on the team with a 3:50 (PP: 2:06, PK 1:44) average per game.
Most face-offs taken? Wennberg. He has led in the number of face-offs taken overall in every Kraken season.
Who leads the Kraken in percentage of high-danger shots at 15.38 percent? Wennberg.
What player leads the team in takeaways minus giveaways? Wennberg. He leads the team in both takeaways at 158 and takeaways minus giveaways at 88. “Best friend of the pod,” Alison Lukan, wrote a great article on this topic last year.
How did you do on the quiz? If you got less than seven out of seven, feel free to try again. Remember the answer is “Wennberg.”
The Swedish center is trusted in all situations on the ice, consistently rolled out on the PP and PK, and is defensively sound. To address the amount of shots Wennberg takes, this is nothing new to his playing style, but the key to focus on is that he opts to pass rather than take low-percentage shots. But he takes high-percentage shots as they are available. Here is a heatmap of Wennberg’s shot attempts this season, as found on Moneypuck.com.
The following three trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
Andrew Copp (Age 27) – The New York Rangers sent first-, second-, and fifth-round picks plus an AHL prospect to Winnipeg in 2022.
Lars Eller (Age 32) – Colorado traded a second-round pick to Washington in 2023.
Eric Staal (Age 36) – Buffalo fetched third- and fifth-round picks from Montreal in 2021.
At 29, Wennberg should fall somewhere between the Eller and Copp trades, if Seattle decides to move him. A first-round return might be asking a bit much, but a second-rounder and an additional pick is more practical.
Shane Wright is developing in the AHL and will look to make the Kraken next year. This does create a log jam in the center position if Wennberg stays, but having too many centers is a good thing, and the Kraken have options with the current rostered players that can play both wing and center. We would rather see Wright make the team first and eventually ease him into a top-six center role. Keeping Wennberg around gives them the ability to do that.
Wennberg, a former first-round pick, has a 10-team modified no-trade clause (M-NTC).
What it would take to re-sign Wennberg?
Three comparable contracts were used (player name, contract terms, age when signed):
Vincent Trocheck (seven year at $5.625M AAV, signing age 29) – First-line center averaging over 21 minutes per game. This physical forward also plays in all situations and averages 50-60 points a season. It helps that Artemi Panarin plays on his wing.
Phillip Danault (six years at $5.5M AAV, signing age 28) – Shutdown center that has a scoring touch, tallying over 50 points in each of the past two seasons.
Alexander Kerfoot (two years at $3.5M AAV, signing age 28) – Since joining Arizona, Kerfoot has played both PP and PK minutes. He has a career average of ~40 points a season.
Wennberg is currently at $4.5M AAV, so he falls in the middle of these contracts, and that is about right. Both Trocheck and Danault were able to sign longer-term deals due to their skill sets. The defensive-minded Wennberg is in the same camp and will be looking for the longest term possible (four-plus years).
We think the Seattle Kraken will look to capitalize on his early 30’s and try for another three-year deal. We see the AAV landing in the $4-$5.5M range with a three-to-five-year term.
Chris Driedger (Age 29) – Target: Let walk
The goaltender was the Kraken’s Expansion Draft pick from the Florida Panthers after he compiled 21 wins and a .930 save percentage over two years. Unfortunately, the Canadian netminder has not panned out in Seattle, posting an .899 save percentage in the inaugural season before getting injured in the IIHF World Championship in 2022. Since that time, Driedger has only played two NHL games and spent the rest of his time in the AHL.
The WHL product cleared waivers after this season’s training camp, as other NHL teams did not want any part of his $3.5M cap hit.
With Philipp Grubauer being activated off injured reserve Tuesday, Driedger was re-assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds. A trade still could happen, but there are currently teams in need of goaltending, and a deal has yet to be done. This indicates his cap hit and small sample size, since returning from injury, are issues. The Kraken will most likely keep Driedger as an insurance plan in the AHL, in case there is a future goalie injury. We foresee Seattle letting Driedger and his 10-team M-NTC walk at the end of the season.
Devin Shore (Age 29) – Target: Trade for a fifth-round pick
The veteran of over 400 games is the perfect depth insurance policy. He can play center or wing and jump up and down the lineup as needed. Having this flexibility is something that NHL clubs in the playoffs value. Shore is on a two-way contract, meaning he is paid $250K in the AHL and the league-minimum $775K when with the Kraken.
The following two trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
Curtis Lazar (27) – New Jersey sent a fourth-round pick to Vancouver in 2023.
Ryan Carpenter (31) – Calgary traded a fifth-round pick to Chicago in 2022.
In return for Shore, a fourth- or fifth-round pick could be expected.
Overall
Trades are hard to predict, and we don’t see the Kraken pulling the trigger to sell, as long as they have a path to the playoffs. Another aspect that was not covered is the NHL salary cap is expected to go up to $87.7M next year, so every team is going to have some extra flexibility.
Please comment on what trades you feel are possible and if the Kraken should re-sign or trade their existing UFA’s. If you missed part I, you can find it here.
Next project is to review the Kraken’s restricted free agents (RFA), so look for that in the coming weeks.
