The Seattle Kraken fell short of the ultimatum I set in last week’s Monday Musings of grabbing five out of a possible six points, but I can’t be upset at the effort. The boys came away with gutsy wins against the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins but fell short of gaining a point versus the Edmonton Oilers in a Saturday afternoon matinee.
This might have been the best three-game effort the Kraken have brought this season against some high-quality opponents. From top to bottom, the team is really bought in and showing the desperation to stay in the playoff hunt right now.
Unfortunately, the Kraken woke up on Monday nine points out of a wild card spot and again looking at a logjam of four teams they would need to climb over in the standings to get into the postseason. Getting in is looking less likely every day, but if the Kraken can play the rest of the season like this, I still think they have a shot.
Remaining schedule
The next four games will be the toughest four games remaining on the schedule. Even if they only manage four points of the eight available, the Kraken might be ok to stay in it as long as either the Los Angeles Kings or Nashville Predators start to lose a bit more than they win. Over the next four games, the Kraken have one game against the Calgary Flames, two against the Winnipeg Jets, and then one game against the Vegas Golden Knights. After those four games, the schedule gets easier with six out of the next eight games being against teams that are mostly eliminated from playoff contention.
Alex Wennberg
With the trade deadline this coming Friday, I worry this might be the last week we see Alex Wennberg wearing the Seattle Kraken jersey. Regular readers will know that I love Wennberg and what he has brought to this franchise. He was one of the first free agents to sign in Seattle before the team ever took the ice. I am always blown away with his play and patience with the puck, and I marvel at his footwork and board play.
I will never forget the below play during the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. A lot of the highlights won’t show his contributions to the goal, but the whole sequence doesn’t happen without his board work.
He had another great play on Monday that will go underappreciated, when he gained the zone, and as five Bruins set up to defend, Wennberg delivered a soft pass to empty ice that Will Borgen. Borgen swiftly stepped into it for a one-timer that Oliver Bjorkstrand tipped by Linus Ullmark.
🚨 CUE THE MAESTRO! 🚨
Bjorkstrand tips a Borgen shot in with 5 minutes left!
If this is truly his last week or even season with the Seattle Kraken, he will be missed. He currently leads all Kraken forwards in ice time, and he plays on the power play, penalty kill, and is often deployed in key defensive situations.
Hard sell, soft sell, or hold
What the Kraken do at the trade deadline is still anyone’s guess. I found Pierre LeBrun’s take on what the Kraken might do with their two biggest assets on expiring deals humorous. LeBrun’s take was the Kraken could re-sign Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, or they might re-sign one of them, or they might do nothing. So, they could do anything.
We published a story on the topic a couple weeks ago, in case you want to read up on that and hear what the players themselves said about the situation.
There are three trade deadline scenarios that could play out:
A hard sell would be if the Kraken trade either Alexander Wennberg and/or Jordan Eberle.
A soft sell would be if the team traded Justin Schultz and/or Tomas Tatar
Holding would be doing nothing or moving a depth piece in the system.
The fate of what they do might come down to the back-to-back games to start this week. Two wins, and they might hold. Two losses, and I think a hard sell will be kicked into motion. I do think there is a way this team could make the playoffs even with a “soft-sell,” where maybe it trades only Schultz and has Ryker Evans slot in for him the rest of the way (just as an example).
Other Musings
After a successful goalie interference challenge last Monday against the Bruins, the Kraken are two for two in goalie interference challenges this season. The success rate for goalie challenges league wide is 63 percent.
The Boston game was the 17th overtime game of the season for Seattle. That tied the full-season total from 2022-23, so the next overtime game this season will mean the most OT games in a single season for the Kraken. Here is how overtime games have broken down by seasons.
If the Kraken start the week with two regulation losses, the season is probably cooked, and I would appreciate people checking in on me on Wednesday morning.
Tuesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets will be the first time the Kraken square off against the Jets this season. Winnipeg is the only team in the league the Kraken have not faced this season, but they will play two in a row against them this week.
The Kraken are still winless at home on Saturdays this season. The loss to Edmonton pushed their Saturday home record to 0-5-2. The Kraken have two more Saturday home games remaining this season.
It is great to see Philipp Grubauer getting in a groove. He has a .942 save percentage with a 4-1-0 record since coming back from injury. Outside of last season’s playoffs, this is probably his best stretch of games he has played with the Kraken.
Player performances
Morgan Geekie (BOS) – The former Seattle Kraken and Tri-City American had his first career hat-trick against the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. We continue to root for Geekie as long as he isn’t playing against the Kraken.
Philipp Grubauer (SEA) – Grubauer had a .944 save percentage and a 2-1-0 record on the week including a shutout against the Penguins, his first of the season.
Jagger Firkus (MJW/SEA) and Carson Rehkopf (KIT/SEA) – Both players might be the most mentioned players in the Monday Musings for the season. Both Seattle Kraken prospects are having outstanding years for their respective clubs, and both eclipsed the 50-goal mark on Sunday.
For those that might have missed it, we had two outstanding guests on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast this week with Piper Shaw and Alison Lukan in studio. The episode was packed with tomfoolery and hijinks, but there was also plenty of Kraken insight, so give it a listen.
One thing Alison called out was Andre Burakovsky’s actions that helped with the Vince Dunn goal against Boston. The breakdown is in her below tweet.
2-2
Dunn with the equalizer but Burakovsky is so critical here – this comes right after a shift where he dangled right in front of Ullmark…BOS knows they have to defend him – he draws two and Dunn has plenty of space to send in the shot that gets in net. #SeaKrakenpic.twitter.com/exF4UYDOH0
Also, on the podcast we discussed a different framing of shots and shot attempts, called ‘shots on target.’ It’s just shots on goal, but in context of shot attempts, you could widen the lens to evaluate how many shot attempts actually get to the goalie. So, naturally, I investigated it.
I originally started just looking at percentage of shots on target, and that showed Seattle had the second-lowest percentage of shot attempts that are on target. When I saw Carolina below the Kraken, I felt it needed additional context since Carolina is one of the better teams in the league this season. I then added total shot attempts per game to help add more color to the story.
This was pulled together in about 30 minutes on Monday morning, so there is still a lot more to dig into here, but it is an interesting perspective to start evaluating some of the shooting performances across the NHL.
The week ahead
I have been implying the Kraken’s situation (in terms of making the playoffs) has been dire for a while. They have been staying afloat, but the Predators have really started to separate from the rest of the pack and currently have a nine-point advantage on the Kraken for the last playoff spot. Seattle still has two games in hand but will need to climb over a few teams, even if Nashville starts to falter. I am also ready to lock the Kings into a playoff spot at this point, which only leaves that Nashville spot.
The first half of March has the Kraken facing some quality opponents, and that kicks off this week with a game Monday against an equally desperate Calgary Flames team and two games against the Central Division leaders, the Winnipeg Jets. Anything less than four points and at least one against Calgary might sink these Kraken playoff dreams in season three. The team has been playing well and still shows a lot of compete that has me clinging to a few last shreds of hope.
As always, thank you for making it this far. If you have questions, thoughts, or reactions, feel free to leave a note in the comments and I will do my best to respond and engage.
Almost two months have passed since we first outlined the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken. In that first iteration, we concluded the Kraken would need to hit 93 points to give themselves a 50-percent chance at making the playoffs. They fell three points behind the 93-point pace in January, so they needed to obtain 11 points in February to get back on track. They did just that.
It was a bumpy ride in February, but in the end, the Kraken finished the month 5-3-1 (exactly 11 points), capping it off with Philipp Grubauer’s first-ever shutout at Climate Pledge Area and first shutout of the season.
February review
List of games: LOSS – Sat, Feb. 10 @ Philadelphia 3 – 2 (Bubble) LOSS – Mon, Feb. 12 @ New Jersey 3 – 1 (Bubble) WIN – Tue, Feb. 13 @ NY Islanders 2 – 1 SO (Bubble) WIN – Thu, Feb. 15 @ Boston 4 – 1 (Playoff Bound) OT LOSS – Mon, Feb. 19 vs Detroit 4 – 3 (Bubble) WIN – Thu, Feb. 22 vs Vancouver 5 – 2 (Playoff Bound) LOSS – Sat, Feb. 24 vs Minnesota 5 – 2 (Bubble) WIN – Mon, Feb. 26 vs Boston 4 – 3 SO (Playoff Bound) WIN – Thu, Feb. 29 vs Pittsburgh 2 – 0 (Bubble)
Bubble teams:
Let us start with the lows of the month, which is how the Kraken fared against Bubble teams. After the NHL All-Star break, the Kraken came out flat and lost two straight games to the Flyers and Devils. That really put Seattle in a hole and increased the pressure to perform. Later in the month, the Kraken laid an egg, losing 5-2 to the Wild for their third loss to a Bubble team.
Goaltending:
Joey Daccord is showing signs of cooling off. He had one win during the month of February and four losses (three in regulation, one in overtime). He was also pulled in the Minnesota game, but on the positive side, he still held a respectable .904 save percentage for the month. The one win came against the Boston Bruins and was a bright spot for the Massachusetts native. Another player by the name of “Post, Clang” might have had a few saves in the Boston game as well.
On the flip side, as the team struggled with Daccord in net, they excelled with Grubauer and went 4-0-0 in his starts. The wins included Grubauer’s shutout of the Penguins, two shootout wins against the Islanders and Bruins, and another regulation win against the Canucks. The German Gentleman did not always need to be his best but looked solid in his return from injury. Grubauer posted a stingy .947 save percentage during the month of February.
Playoff-Bound teams:
The Kraken were a perfect 3-0 against Playoff-Bound teams, which highlights what this team is capable of achieving. Two wins against Boston and one win against Vancouver is something to build on with March now upon us. Continuing to succeed against top teams will be key to the Kraken’s chances of making the playoffs.
February overall:
In the original article on the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken, 93 points was shown to give a team a 50-percent chance of making the playoffs. Things that were hard to watch:
The Loss to the Wild resulted in a four-point swing
The Predators going on an amazing 9-1-0 run through the month
Remember, neither of these items changes the math. The Kraken need 30 points out of a possible 46 points to hit the 93-point target for the rest of the season. This works out to a .652 points percentage.
Focusing on March:
March is a busy month with 14 games on the schedule and the trade deadline fast approaching on March 8. Of the 14 games, six are against Playoff-Bound teams, three are against Bubble teams, and five are against Tanker teams. The Arizona Coyotes have gone 0-8-2 in their last 10 games and have been relegated to the Tanker teams. No other changes to team categorizations were made. Here is a list of the team categorizations:
Trade Deadline:
There are three more games before the trade deadline, but the Seattle Kraken are probably not going to get all the answers to their playoff hopes from just those games. Eyes will be on the Predators who also have three games before the trade deadline. If the Predators are able to widen their wild card lead even more, the Kraken might turn to being sellers at the deadline.
It should be noted that the Predators have two games in hand, so the current seven-point (as of Feb. 29) lead over the Kraken could be as small as three points. But everything would need to go in the Kraken’s favor over the next week for that to be true.
Wrap up:
March could very well play out similarly to February, as the first seven games are against tough opponents, before Seattle finishes the month with five of its last seven games in the month against Tankers. Strap in for another bumpy ride, but we should know the Kraken’s playoff fate by the end of this month.
In last week’s Monday Musings, I highlighted the Seattle Kraken’s quest for a playoff berth. To stay in hunt, I forecasted they would need at least three points from their three games that week. They stumbled out of the gate with a 3-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils, leaving a lot of us with little hope. The very next night, they secured a 2-1 shootout victory against the New York Islanders, and then followed that up with a gritty 4-1 win against the Boston Bruins, earning a total of four out of six points available over those three games.
The Kraken still find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture with most experts giving them a 15-30 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Western Conference wild card race is particularly intense, with seven teams vying for two spots. It’s rare to see such a tight race with so many teams in the conversation this late in the season. Each of these teams is just one hot streak away from securing a coveted playoff position. The fact that both wild card spots remain up for grabs gives me hope that the Kraken can defy the odds and clinch a postseason berth.
Eight of the remaining 28 Kraken games are against these “in the hunt” opponents. It is true that earning two points against one of these teams is as valuable as against any other team, but the crucial difference lies in preventing these teams from gaining points. I recall the St. Louis game on Jan. 26. For the most part, the Kraken dominated that game and should have won in regulation, but the Blues managed to hang around and ultimately won it in overtime. Consequently, the Kraken secured only one point instead of two, while the Blues earned two points instead of none. This resulted in a three-point swing in favor of the Blues.
If the Kraken had won that game in regulation, the Blues, currently holding the second wild card spot, would have 58 points, and the Kraken would have 57 points. Although the Blues would still occupy the wild card spot, their lead over the Kraken would have been reduced to just one point. I understand that dwelling on past events serves no purpose, but it highlights the critical nature of these head-to-head matchups.
Matt Rempe and Andy Eide
As soon as the former Seattle Thunderbird Matt Rempe was called up to the New York Rangers, I thought of our dear friend Andy Eide. Andy loved Rempe and would have been so stoked to see him make his NHL debut. Andy wrote a great story about Rempe halfway through his rookie season.
Rempe was always a long shot to make it. He was not drafted in the WHL Bantam Draft and was a sixth-round selection by the New York Rangers in 2020. Andy always treated the junior players really well and was mindful that these elite athletes were just kids, and he always had a soft spot for the dark horses. He used to love to talk about Scott Eansor, Cade McNelly, and Matt Wedman. There were others, but those are the ones that stood out for me.
Like Rempe, all those players are household names to Thunderbirds fans, and Andy would share these players’ names beyond the Thunderbirds’ fan base. Rempe had quite the debut: an outdoor game and a fight one second into his first shift.
Since the Winter Classic, the Seattle Kraken have captured 86 percent of the points available when scoring first and only 28 percent of the points when trailing first. They scored first in the Islanders game and trailed first in the Flyers, Devils, and Bruins games.
The Kraken scored their first power-play goal in five games on Thursday against the Bruins, their longest drought of the year. It isn’t that the Kraken’s power play has been bad as of late, they just have not been drawing the opportunities. They rank just 30th in the league in power-play opportunities per game with 2.74. Last season they were 21st in the league. I can’t pinpoint the root cause of it, other than it is driven by a lack of high-end talent.
It was fun to see the boys ribbing Andre Burakovsky for his blocked shot against the Boston Bruins. That was his seventh blocked shot of the season, three more than Marian Studenic, who played two games for the Kraken.
Joking aside, I think the last two games have been Burakovsky’s best games of the season. He is due for a breakout game. (If I say this every week, eventually I will be right).
Do not be surprised if Jordan Eberle remains with the team after the trade deadline without signing an extension. Eberle has made it clear that he wants to stay in Seattle, and the Kraken brass see an opportunity for him to continue his career here as well. Both realize there is a fit and are comfortable waiting to see if they can work something out.
Just a friendly reminder that the Kraken will be wearing the Winter Classic jerseys next Saturday when they take on the Minnesota Wild. Seattle’s goalies were seen wearing their WC gear at practice this weekend.
The Coachella Valley Firebirds announced that Shane Wright is currently out day to day after this hit on Thursday.
I mentioned Carson Rehkopf last week, and it seems like I can’t go a week without mentioning him. He had five points in two games over the weekend. Maybe I should give him his own section.
The Portland Winterhawks and Everett Silvertips both clinched playoff spots in the WHL. Both teams are power houses in the US Division, and I would not be surprised if either of them made the WHL Finals this season.
The PWHL set a record attendance figure to see a women’s hockey game on Friday. 19,285 fans saw Toronto beat Montreal at Scotiabank Arena. The league is averaging 5,527 due to the limited capacity of the arenas they are currently playing in. Before the Scotiabank Arena game, the Toronto team usually plays in Mattamy Athletic Centre, an arena with a capacity of 2,796. This league appears to be exceeding expectations, and I am excited to see how they build on this momentum.
I am often asked about the possible expansion of women’s pro hockey to Seattle. It is possible, but I believe a prerequisite will be a suitable arena with a capacity of 8K to 10K within five miles of downtown Seattle or Bellevue. I also think it would require some additional teams in Western Canada to create clusters of teams to ease travel.
Finally, if you are expecting a lot of action in the trade market this week, you are in luck. Things typically start to ratchet up about two weeks before the deadline, which would mean they will start around Feb. 23. It’s usually a slow burn for about a week after that, and then things increase the five days before the March 8 deadline.
Players of the week
Matty Beniers (SEA) – He had big performances in his last two games with four points, including this beauty of a sequence.
MATTY MAGIC! 🚨
That's one way to respond after a tough turnover last game.
Beniers goes HARD into the boards after a collision with Pulock, but seconds later, he scores his seventh goal of the season.
Chris Driedger (CVF) – Posted a .942 save percentage over three games for the Coachella Valley Firebirds with two shutouts. Driedger is showcasing his work to future employers, since his three-year deal with the Kraken ends this season. We’ve always liked Driedger and will be rooting for him to find a spot that will give him an NHL opportunity this summer.
Zaccharya Wisdom (CCT) – The Kraken’s seventh-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had seven points in his two games against North Dakota over the weekend including this four-goal performance.
We have been big fans of Seattle Kraken prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard ever since he appeared on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last summer. So, when he delights, we like to amplify.
The week ahead
Let me know if you have heard this before, but the Kraken have a big week in front of them, and every point will be critical. This week seems particularly challenging with two games against playoff bubble teams and another one against a playoff lock. The bubble teams, Detroit and Minnesota, will be playing for their postseason lives while Vancouver currently has the best record in the league. The Minnesota game seems particularly huge given that they are tied in the standings. It feels like the Kraken need to get four out of a possible six points this week with at least one point against the Wild.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to buckle up for this home stretch.
The 3-2 Kraken loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday unfolded largely as expected. It marked the Kraken’s first game after the All-Star break and bye week, while the Flyers were playing their third game since their break. Although the shot count might tell a different story, Seattle hung in there and battled, but to no avail. With a challenging February schedule ahead, the Kraken will need to figure out how to steal some of these games if they are going to have any chance at playing meaningful games in March.
“What’s up with Matty?”
We received a question on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast mailbag last week asking, “What’s up with Matty?” In case you haven’t been paying attention, Matty Beniers has just six goals in his first 46 games played this season versus 17 goals in his first 46 games played last season. I did not have too much to offer to the conversation other than it seems like there have been stretches where he has been afraid to shoot.
That is a common media narrative that gets thrown around when players are going through slumps, though. Can we test my theory? Welcome to my Sunday project. (Coincidentally, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic also put out a “deep dive” article on Beniers Monday, but theirs focused on his defensive prowess. It’s an interesting article, so give that a read in addition to the below to get the full scope of the state of Matty’s game.)
First, I looked at Beniers’ shots per game and shot attempts per game. If my theory is accurate, the numbers would show a year-over-year decline.
Ok, it looks like there may be something to my theory. There is a decline, but the .18 decrease in shots per game is only a reduction of 10 percent compared to last season, whereas the drop of 11 goals per game from 17 at this point last season is a reduction of 65 percent. Are shots the best proxy for a player’s willingness to shoot? Probably not.
To increase the sample size, I looked at Matty’s shot attempts per game compared to last season. For those that might not know, shot attempts include shots on net, missed shots, and shots that get blocked.
Wait a second, that shows an increase in shooting season over season. This increase is a little misleading, though, because Beniers is averaging roughly 40 more seconds of ice time per game this season and therefore has more time to get shot attempts. If we account for extra time on ice, the shot attempt rate is roughly the same compared to last season. Still, my theory of Beniers being afraid to shoot at times suddenly isn’t standing up.
I went further down the rabbit hole, and over to NaturalStatTrick.com, looking into the rate of high-danger chances Matty has generated this season compared to last.
I then looked at his shot attempts on a map (minus blocked shots) to see if there was anything that stood out season over season.
There isn’t a huge difference season over season, other than a few more shots from farther out in 2022-23. Let’s see how his shot attempts look in man-advantage scenarios.
When you isolate the power-play shot attempts (minus blocked shots), you can see that Beniers has taken almost all his shots to the goalies right this season, as opposed to shooting almost exclusively from the goalie’s left last season. I don’t think this is a contributing factor in Matty’s lower production this season (it’s really just how he’s being deployed on the power play), but I did find it interesting so thought I would share.
After all that, I still did not reach a firm conclusion as to what is impacting Matty’s production this season. He is still very young at just 21 years old and has plenty of room to develop, so I am not overly concerned about his drop in production in this sophomore season.
Like many of his teammates, he started the season cold. For a while, he looked like he was returning to form before an injury took him out of the lineup for five games. He might also be feeling pressure with higher expectations being thrust upon him and knowing that he is up for a new contract this summer. It was one game, but he looked good on Saturday night, and although he did not get a point on the play, he contributed to the first goal in multiple ways.
Other Musings
The Kraken have 52 points in 51 games. There have been 25 teams since the 2005-06 season that had 52 points at the 51-game mark, and only four of those 25 made the playoffs.
I couldn’t remember the last time I’ve seen an unsuccessful offside coach’s challenge, so when Flyers coach John Tortorella contested Tomas Tatar’s goal on Saturday night, I mentally took the Kraken goal off the board. I was pleasantly surprised when Tortorella’s challenge failed. Scott Malone of ROOT Sports tweeted that it’s the first time an offside challenge has ever failed in a Kraken game.
Andre Burakovsky had five of his shot attempts blocked on Saturday night. He leads the current Kraken forwards with 41 percent of his shot attempts being blocked. I honestly don’t how to interpret that stat, but I was frustrated with his shot selection that night, so I looked it up.
When healthy, I think Burakovsky is an awesome player, but he looks nowhere close to what he showed at the beginning of last season. He has never had a season with a shooting percentage under 10 percent. His current shooting percentage this season is a paltry 3.6.
Chris Driedger posted his third shutout of the season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds on Saturday. It is unlikely, but I wonder if a team would consider trading for him as a potential second or third goalie for a playoff run.
I think Carson Rehkopf is becoming the Kraken’s top prospect and has potential to play in the NHL next season. He had three more goals this past weekend over two games and now has 40 on the season. Meanwhile, Jagger Firkus set a Moose Jaw Warriors record with points in 24 consecutive games.
David Goyette (SDB) – The Kraken prospect had three goals and six assists in his last three games for the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL. He shares the top spot for points this season in the OHL.
Andrei Loshko (ROU) – A Kraken fourth-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had a hat trick and two assists for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in a 11-0 win on Thursday night.
Logan Morrison (CVF) – The undrafted free agent signing by the Seattle Kraken had two goals in the Coachella Valley Firebirds’ only game this week. Morrison is having a solid first pro season with 10 goals and 21 assists in 45 games with the Firebirds.
Chart of the Week
After last year’s second-in-the-league 11.6 team shooting percentage, we expected a bit of a regression for the Kraken in 2023-24… but maybe not quite like this:
Goal of the Week
Barrett Hall was a Seattle Kraken sixth-round selection in the 2022 NHL Draft and currently plays for the St. Cloud State Huskies (Piper Shaw and Will Borgen’s alma matter).
The Kraken battled back to put themselves in a position to compete for a playoff spot, but they are headed in the opposite direction compared to some of the teams competing for the same wild card positions. Calgary, Minnesota, St. Louis, Nashville, and Los Angeles are a collective 8-0-0 since the All-Star break.
The next three games for the Kraken pose a challenge. They face the Devils Monday, Islanders Tuesday, and the Bruins on Thursday. The Devils and Islanders are fighting for the playoffs and will be coming in desperate, while the Bruins are one of the top teams in the league. Points will be hard to come by in these games, but if the Kraken take anything under three points, we can all but write off a shot at the playoffs. This might be the do-or-die week for the Kraken.
As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any thoughts or questions, please let us know in the comments section.
We’re back! After an outrageously long hiatus, the Seattle Kraken finally return to game action Saturday at the Flyers, kicking off a critical four-game road trip through Philadelphia, New Jersey, New York (Islanders), and Boston.
Now that Seattle’s players have reconvened in the City of Brotherly Love after their vacations to far-off destinations, this felt like a good time to reflect on what has transpired so far this season and consider where this team might go in the remaining 32 games on the schedule.
Entering play on Saturday, the Kraken sit at 21-19-10, good for 52 standings points and two points out of the last wild card spot in the Western Conference. The St. Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, and Calgary Flames are ahead of Seattle but can all theoretically be tied or jumped in just one night if everyone loses and Seattle wins.
So, the Kraken are very much within striking distance of a playoff spot, despite an up-and-down campaign so far.
Reasons to be optimistic
If you’ve stuck with Sound Of Hockey for a while, you know we generally lean toward optimism. It is way more fun to be bullish on Seattle’s chances than it is to be bearish, because at the end of the day, all we want to do is cover a winner.
Exiting the break, the Kraken occupy an awkward spot somewhere between bullishness and bearishness, but there is reason to be optimistic that the team will make the postseason for the second season in a row.
Good health
As we are writing this, we are simultaneously knocking on a big piece of wood. The Kraken are fully healthy for the first time since Opening Night, when Brandon Tanev took a nasty open-ice hit in Vegas and missed the subsequent month of hockey. (Worth noting, Alison Lukan reported that Justin Schultz did not participate in morning skate in Philadelphia due to personal reasons.) That should bring Seattle’s fans a nice dose of optimism.
Though he is still technically listed on injured reserve, we believe that even Pierre-Edouard Bellemare—who hasn’t played since blocking a shot with his foot in a 4-3 overtime loss at the Dallas Stars on Dec. 18—could be set to return to game action. Although he doesn’t move the needle offensively, it’s a luxury to have a veteran center like Bellemare, who can kill penalties and win face-offs, waiting in the wings. Expect PEB to be activated off IR in the coming days.
When the season started, we recall wondering which forward would be scratched from the lineup between Bellemare, Tye Kartye, and Kailer Yamamoto. Those questions didn’t linger for long, though, because Tanev immediately got hurt, meaning there were lineup spots for all those forwards. But now, the team has added Tomas Tatar to the top of the forward corps, which adds another question about who plays and who sits.
After a first half riddled with injuries and illnesses to key players, it will be interesting to see how coach Dave Hakstol manages a full roster moving forward. We loved the look he showed during the latter stages of Seattle’s nine-game win streak, when Jared McCann and Andre Burakovsky were part of a de facto “fourth” line. Seattle looked the best it has looked all season during those couple games when it was truly rolling four lines that could score, so we would love to see Hakstol go back to something similar in the near future.
Can this group stay healthy the rest of the way?
Joey Daccord
One positive that came out of Seattle’s many injury woes was the emergence of netminder Joey Daccord as a bona fide NHLer and potentially as a true No. 1 backstop. It was telling that even after Philipp Grubauer returned from a lower-body injury that kept him sidelined from Dec. 9 through Jan. 21, Daccord still started the four remaining games before the break.
We wondered for a while if Seattle was relying too heavily on Daccord, but after his play cooled from red-hot to more of a magenta hue, he was still more than solid between the pipes.
Daccord has impressed in his first full NHL season, posting a 15-9-9 record, 2.32 goals-against average, and .921 save percentage. Seattle will need both Daccord and Grubauer to be effective down the stretch, but Joey has shown he can shoulder most of the load if needed.
Daccord is a big reason for optimism.
This group can do it
Another reason to be optimistic is that the majority of this group was here last season and knows how to reach the playoffs. The Kraken have had some painful dips in play in the first 50 games, but they overcame a lot in the last month before the long All-Star break/bye week kicked in.
As Hakstol said after Seattle’s painful loss in San Jose on Jan. 30, the team now controls its own destiny. If they can get hot in these next few games and get themselves on a roll, the Kraken have the ability to make it to the postseason and even surprise some higher-ranked opponents.
Reasons to be pessimistic
Of course, based on Seattle’s current situation, making the playoffs is anything but guaranteed at this point. As our own John Barr pointed out in our recent Roundtable article, only 33 percent of teams with 52 points through 50 games end up making the playoffs.
That would indicate the odds are stacked against Seattle. While it looks like the Kraken are within arm’s reach of a wild card spot, leapfrogging one team is difficult in today’s NHL because of the potential three-point game that goes to overtime. Jumping over multiple teams is always tough, and as of the writing of this story, Seattle will need to get past at least three squads between now and the end of the season.
Post-break games are critical
We also believe that these first few games out of the break will be pivotal in helping general manager Ron Francis decide if he should be a seller or not at the March 8 trade deadline.
One would think that with improved health and plenty of rest, Seattle should come out of the break firing on all cylinders. But if you think back to last year, the Kraken embarked on a similar road trip upon returning to action, visiting all three New York Metropolitan teams, then Philadelphia, and then Winnipeg. The team went 1-3-1 on that trip and lost Burakovsky for the season in its first game back.
Our hope is that the Kraken learned from their mistakes and will come out of the break ready to go, but it is worth noting that the Flyers—Seattle’s opponent on Saturday—have already played two games since the pause and are 2-0-0 with wins over contenders in Florida and Winnipeg.
Deadline decisions looming
We don’t think the franchise is in a state yet where it should push its chips in and buy at the deadline, hoping to make a deep playoff run. So, the options will most likely be to again stand pat (like Francis did in 2022-23) or to sell off expiring contracts for draft picks (like he did in the team’s inaugural season).
Seattle has several important veteran players whose contracts are up after this season, including Jordan Eberle, Alex Wennberg, and Justin Schultz. All of those players have value on the trade market, but there will come a tipping point where Francis has to decide if these individuals are in the team’s future plans or not. If the team isn’t going anywhere this season, then the Kraken will want to salvage what they can and trade these players.
If the team comes out of the break sluggish, Francis may have no choice but to sell. At that point, the season would effectively be over.
What do you think, folks? Can the Kraken make the playoffs?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
A few weeks back, we reviewed the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents in a two-part series (Part I and Part II). This week, we will be jumping into the Kraken’s three restricted free agents (RFA’s) and reviewing what might be in store for them during the offseason. The Coachella Valley Firebirds also have five additional RFA’s in the Kraken development system. We will focus more on the RFA’s currently playing with Seattle but will also touch briefly on the ones playing for the Firebirds.
There are many rules around RFA’s that complicate contract negotiations. If you need a refresher on the free agency process and steps, Sound Of Hockey‘s own Curtis Isacke wrote a piece on free agency last year for review. The appendix outlines the terms associated with free agency, and there is also a section dedicated to RFA’s.
The Seattle Kraken RFA process is a long one that can last up to 18 months. It technically started back on July 1, 2023, when the players in question first became eligible to sign contract extensions. At the conclusion of the process, the hope for both sides is typically a finalized contract. These negotiations can sometimes drag into the following season, causing a player to miss time, but that is rare.
Here are the high-level steps RFA’s will go through:
Possibility of contract extension
Qualifying offers extended
Arbitration (if the player is eligible; Matty Beniers is the only Kraken RFA that does not have arbitration rights)
Contract negotiations (short-term bridge or long-term deal?)
The Kraken RFA’s are:
Matty Beniers (Age 21) – Target: Re-sign for two years at $5M AAV
Matty Beniers at Kraken practice. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
After dazzling as a rookie and capturing the Calder Trophy last season, Beniers has found himself in a sophomore slump season. His scoring pace has dipped by around 40 percent, signaling his value in negotiations has decreased and a bridge deal might be in his future.
While the scoring decline is noticeable, it’s crucial to consider the context. Through 50 games, the Kraken have scored 140 goals, down from the 177 goals they scored in 50 games last season. Beniers’ value also extends beyond pure offense. He’s a skilled two-way center, contributing defensively and driving puck possession. But, he still needs to produce offensively to warrant the massive contract his camp surely wants.
With no extension signed to date, it is questionable if a deal will be done before the offseason. Had Beniers maintained his rookie scoring pace, a maximum-term, eight-year contract would likely be on the table. Given the current scoring slump, a bridge deal (one-to-four years) appears more probable.
Looking at recent bridge deals for young, talented players offers some insight:
Trevor Zegras: three-year bridge at $5.75M AAV
Pierre-Luc Dubois: two-year bridge at $5M AAV, followed by a one-year bridge at $6M AAV
Despite the scoring dip, Beniers’ overall value remains high.
Defensive Prowess: His two-way play adds considerable value beyond the goal sheet.
Calder Trophy Winner: His past achievements and potential shouldn’t be disregarded.
Age and Development: At 21, Beniers is still developing and has plenty of room for improvement.
Trade options:
As the franchise’s first-ever draft pick and face of the team, the Kraken are unlikely to trade Beniers. We will not be reviewing trade options.
Prediction:
We anticipate a bridge deal in the two-to-four-year range with $4.5M-$5.5M AAV. This will give Beniers a chance to rediscover his scoring touch and earn a potential eight-year extension while still young.
Eeli Tolvanen (Age 24) – Target: Re-sign for 5 years at $4M AAV
Eeli Tolvanen’s arrival in Seattle via a savvy waiver wire claim has quickly become one of the NHL’s biggest waiver success stories. Now, as the 24-year-old winger approaches the end of his current contract, the Seattle Kraken face a crucial decision: bridge deal or long-term commitment?
Eeli Tolvanen and Yanni Gourde celebrate a goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Tolvanen’s offensive prowess is undeniable. He’s on pace for a career-high point total this season, showcasing a potent blend of goal-scoring ability and playmaking. His physicality is another asset, leading all Kraken forwards in hits (136), and he is also second in blocked shots (52) through 50 games.
Contract comparables:
Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes): five years, $4.3M AAV
Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis Blues): five years, $5M AAV
Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild): eight years, $5.25M AAV
Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): five years, $4.5M AAV
Complicating factors:
One wrinkle in the negotiations is Tolvanen’s arbitration eligibility. If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, an independent arbitrator will determine his contract value. This adds an element of uncertainty for both the Kraken and Tolvanen and gives the player more leverage.
Another factor to consider is Tolvanen’s unique skill set. Most of the comparable contracts listed above feature players that contribute on the penalty kill. The Finnish winger primarily thrives on five-on-five as a solid two-way player and brings an accurate shot to the power play.
Trade options:
While trades involving restricted free agents outperforming their current contracts are uncommon, since teams typically hold onto their relatively young talent, some recent deals offer insights into potential return value.
Artturi Lehkonen – Colorado surrendered a second-round pick and former first-round prospect Justin Barron for Lehkonen in 2022.
Sam Bennett – Florida sent a package of a second-round pick and former second-round prospect Emil Heineman for Bennett and a sixth-round pick in 2021.
While Tolvanen’s power-play prowess surpasses those of the comparables, it’s unlikely to push his trade value to a first-round pick. A target trade return should be two second-round picks/prospects or better. Despite the potential trade haul, the Kraken will likely prioritize re-signing Tolvanen unless an exceptional offer emerges.
The 2023 Tampa Bay Lightning trade for Tanner Jeannot serves as an example of an offer potentially too good to refuse. Nashville received a first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round draft pick, along with defenseman Cal Foote, for the feisty winger.
Prediction:
Despite the uncertainties, expect the Kraken to prioritize retaining Tolvanen long-term. Jared McCann and Vince Dunn were of similar age when they signed their deals with the Kraken and both will be 30 at the time their contracts come to term. We see the Kraken structuring this deal in a similar way but at a smaller dollar value than the $7.35M AAV deal for Dunn and the $5M AAV deal for McCann.
A five-year deal in the $4M-$4.5M AAV range seems like a reasonable outcome. While a longer-term contract isn’t out of the question, a five-year deal gives Tolvanen more options later in his career.
Kailer Yamamoto (Age 25) – Target: Trade for a fourth-round pick
Don’t let Kailer Yamamoto’s stature fool you. At 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the Seattle Kraken forward might be one of the smallest players in the NHL, but his heart and hustle are oversized. He came to the Kraken via free agency after being traded and then bought out of his last $3.2M contract by Detroit, but he is now a pending RFA with Seattle.
Kailer Yamamoto handles the puck. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Yamamoto’s tenacity is most evident on the forecheck, where he uses his low center of gravity to hound puck carriers; he is third on the team in takeaways minus giveaways. The Spokane native’s knack for entering the offensive zone with control translates to his high power play usage.
Yamamoto’s versatility adds another layer to his worth, his high career shooting percentage (14.1 percent) allows him to bump up the lineup when needed. Despite his fourth-line designation, Yamamoto’s advanced statistics are strong. He currently leads the Kraken in both Corsi and Fenwick percentage, suggesting that Yamamoto not only generates offense himself, but also elevates the play of his teammates when on the ice.
The Seattle Kraken only deploy Yamamoto about 12 minutes per game and have scratched him from the lineup on several occasions. In researching players to find comparable contracts, the search was narrowed to players that:
Average under 13 minutes per game.
Average over 90 seconds of power-play time per game.
Have under 20 points on the season.
Have played more than 25 games this season.
Only six players meet this criteria, and they either are playing at or near the league minimum salary or have signed a large deal and are not playing to their contract’s value. Yamamoto doesn’t fit in these categories, so we will not be looking at those comparables.
The small winger is only 25, so he does have one more year where he can play as an RFA. At this point, though, it is apparent the fourth-liner is not going to move the needle enough for the Seattle Kraken and has solidified himself as a depth player.
The winger is arbitration eligible, and a qualifying offer would have to match his current $1.5M AAV. For these reasons, we think it is unlikely the Kraken extend a qualifying offer to Yamamoto. The former Spokane Chief could still sign with the Kraken during free agency, and if that happens, you can expect another one-year deal in the neighborhood of $1M AAV.
Trade options:
The best trade to review is probably his own from Edmonton to Detroit, but there are a couple other options to review too:
Kailer Yamamoto – Detroit sent the infamous “Future Considerations” to Edmonton in 2023 and also received the signing rights of Klim Kostin.
Oskar Sundqvist – Detroit acquired a fourth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023
Rasmus Asplund – Nashville traded a seventh-round pick to Nashville in 2023
The only piece that has changed since Yamamoto’s last trade is his AAV is now $1.5M versus $3.2M when traded in 2023. Factoring in that Yamamoto is still an RFA and the Kraken can retain 50 percent of his contract, a playoff-bound team getting a depth winger with power play experience at a minimal cap hit does have some value. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is in the right range.
Prediction:
If the Kraken remain in the playoff hunt, they will probably hold onto Yamamoto through the end of the season. There are capable right wing fourth-line options in Coachella Valley with Kole Lind, Marian Studenic, and John Hayden available for call-ups, though, so if they get an offer for Yamamoto, the Kraken may be willing to trade him.
Down on the Farm [Moooo!]
Even when I type “Moooo”, I hear it in Sound Of Hockey Podcast host, Darren Brown’s voice. All five of the Coachella Valley Firebird RFA’s are arbitration eligible. This is not as much of a concern as at the NHL level, because most contracts will be two-way deals around league minimum, $775K AAV. All of these players make under $1M, so the qualifying offers will include a five percent increase. We will review each player and assign a “Qualify”, “Trade,” or “Let walk” tag to each player.
Kole Lind– Target: Trade The 25-year-old winger excels on the offensive side of the game, but his scoring successes have not translated to the NHL yet. Similar to Daniel Sprong, there are questions around his two-way play, which makes him a hard fit for the Kraken. He’s one of those guys that has been right on the cusp of making it in the NHL, though. The Kraken should look to trade the winger and package him with another player.
Ville Petman – Target: Qualify The Finnish winger was signed to a two-year deal in 2022 after showing promise in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, scoring 39 points in 59 games. Bringing him to the AHL have allowed the Kraken to evaluate how Petman adapts to the North American game and monitor his improvement. The 24-year-old left wing got off to a good start with 28 points in his first AHL season, but he unfortunately has not showed improvement this season. There are still enough positives to award Petman another contract, but don’t expect to see him on the Kraken roster any time soon.
Luke Henman – Target: Let walk The first player signed to a contract in Kraken franchise history, Henman was never signed to an entry-level deal by Carolina after being drafted in the fourth round in 2018. In his three years in the AHL, his offensive abilities have become stagnant, averaging 0.24 points per game. At 23, Henman still has time to develop, but making the NHL at this point is a going to be an uphill battle.
Marian Studenic – Target: Qualify Studenic is a hard-forechecking winger with a scoring touch. Listed at 165 pounds, he is on the lighter side but could fill a fourth-line type role. With one year remaining as RFA, we think the Kraken will make him a qualifying offer. Update, it has come to my attention that Studenic will actually be a Group 6 UFA at the end of the season. That means the Kraken would not make a qualifying offer, but rather just re-sign him.
Peetro Seppala – Target: Qualify Seppala is a left-shot defenseman that is getting good experience in the AHL. The Finn brings a mix of good puck-moving ability and improving offensive numbers in his two years with the Firebirds. He is behind Ryker Evans on the depth chart and still needs to develop his game, though. We think the Kraken will look to retain Seppala’s rights and extend him a qualifying offer.
Group 6 UFA Sound of Hockey’s own Curtis Isacke pointed out that Kole Lind and Martin Studenic will most likely be Group 6 UFA’s at the end of the season and he is absolutely correct. A full definition of a Group 6 UFA can be found here. A simplified definition is a player that is at least 25 years-old, played at least 3 professional seasons and played less than 80 games at the NHL level.
Overall:
Beniers’ development, Tolvanen’s retention, and Yamamoto’s future all paint a larger picture of Seattle’s commitment to building a contender. Balancing the Kraken’s short-term needs with long-term aspirations, the decisions made this offseason will be interesting to watch. Join the conversation below and let us know how you think the Kraken should handle their RFA’s.
