When we first published our original article on the playoff chances of the Seattle Kraken back in January, we planned to provide updates monthly. But as the playoff picture is becoming clearer, we will update weekly going forward. We will review how the team did the previous week and look ahead to what they need to do in the upcoming week.
Unfortunately for Kraken fans, Seattle had a miserable week and lost in painful 5-4 overtime fashion to the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday, then 2-1 in regulation to the Washington Capitals in an uninspiring performance on Thursday.
Can the Kraken still make the playoffs?
Believe it or not, there is still reason for optimism that the Seattle Kraken can sneak into the playoffs.
According to tankathon.com, the Seattle Kraken have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the NHL.
The Kraken have generally performed well against playoff-bound teams.
There are still three playoff spots within striking distance, both wild card spots and the third spot in the Pacific Division.
The Kraken have one or two games in hand on the teams ahead of them.
The Seattle Kraken do have a nearly impossible uphill climb to make the playoffs at this point. They are nine points behind both Vegas and Los Angeles and will need one of Vegas, Nashville, or Los Angeles to start losing. Vegas is 3-6-1 in their last 10 and is the most likely candidate. I am also not sold that Nashville is as good as its current win streak implies.
With the Golden Knights losing to Calgary on Thursday, it’s easy to imagine how different Seattle’s situation would be if the team could have figured out ways to win both Tuesday and Thursday in regulation. Blowing a two-goal lead and giving Vegas two points, then coming up empty against Washington was a five-point swing in the wrong direction for the Kraken, who would be just four measly points from a wild card spot on Friday if they had gotten those victories.
Review of team categorization and win percentage targets
As you might remember from the original article, we’ve broken the NHL teams down into three categories: Playoff Bound, Bubble, and Tankers.
Playoff Bound – Teams that should make the playoffs, those near the top of the standings. The Kraken’s target was 45 percent of points against these teams.
Bubble – Teams fighting to make the playoffs, most likely as wild cards. The Kraken’s target was to get 65 percent of these points.
Tankers – Teams most likely to miss the playoffs, should be Seattle’s easiest opponents. The Kraken needed 90 percent of these points.
The team categorizations have had some changes since January. The only change this week is Vegas has moved down to a Bubble team. The teams that are bolded are teams against which the Kraken have a remaining game.
Point percentages
We set point percentage targets for each team categorization back in January. Here is how the Seattle Kraken have been doing against each group, since Jan. 1.
Playoff – 5-3-1 – .611 point percentage
Bubble – 4-6-3 – .423 point percentage
Tankers – 5-1-0 – .833 point percentage
Overall – 14-10-3 – .574 point percentage
The Kraken are doing really well against Playoff and Tanker teams, but struggling against the Bubble teams. This has to end now if they want to have any hope to even apply pressure to the teams in wild card spots. Even though the Kraken have struggled against the Bubble teams, they have almost followed the pace of 93 points, and using the target percentages, the Kraken are currently on pace for 92 points.
93 points
Before the start of the season, our own John Barr wrote, “When looking over the last 11 seasons, excluding the 2019-20 season that had a unique play-in format, the average minimum point total of the bottom playoff team was 92.4 points on the season.”
Using this average, 93 points has been what Sound Of Hockey established as the target. Will 93 points be enough to get into the playoffs this year? It is starting to look like the 2023-24 season will require more than the average. Let’s look at where Vegas, Nashville, and Los Angeles are trending for their final season point total:
Vegas Golden Knights – 88-97 points (16 games remaining)
Nashville Predators – 96-98 points (15 games remaining)
Los Angeles Kings – 96-97 points (17 games remaining)
The season point total projection ranges are calculated taking the point percentage for the season and for the last 10 games to give a range. For the Nashville Predators, who are on an 11-game unbeaten streak, the point percentage before the streak started was used for the low total.
If these teams continue on their season points percentage pathways, the line would become 97 points to grab a wild card spot. With tie-breakers, 98 points would pretty much guarantee the Kraken a spot, but that is definitely a tall order. The Kraken would need to get 30 out of 36 remaining possible points, and that is unlikely.
Despite their comeback win over Seattle on Tuesday, the Golden Knights have been slumping as of late, going 3-6-1 in their last 10 games for a .350 point percentage. Vegas needs to turn its play around quickly, as the low end of its point projection (88 points) is within striking distance for multiple teams, including the Kraken.
For this week, we will leave the target at 93 points, but based on how Vegas does over the next week, we might increase the target.
What has happened this month
Overall, the Kraken have done ok, going 2-3-1 against some stiff competition. The losses did sting with a shutout loss to the Jets, a heart-breaking overtime loss to the Golden Knights, and one-goal losses to the Capitals and Oilers.
Mar. 2 – Loss 2-1 against the Edmonton Oilers
Mar. 4 – Win 4-2 against the Calgary Flames
Mar. 5 – Win 4-3 against the Winnipeg Jets
Mar. 8 – Loss 3-0 against the Winnipeg Jets
Mar. 12 – Overtime Loss 5-4 against the Vegas Golden Knights
Mar. 14 – Loss 2-1 against the Washington Capitals
The Kraken also lost two players to injury this month. Vince Dunn is out with an upper-body injury, though he could return soon, and Jaden Schwartz has an undisclosed injury and has not been seen skating.
The Kraken also traded center Alex Wennberg to the New York Rangers on March 6. Jared McCann has stepped into the second-line center role and has exceeded expectations, but still, losing Wennberg did make the team significantly thinner. Playing in five games as a pivot, McCann has six points, including two short-handed goals.
Upcoming week (March 15-21)
The good news is the Kraken have the easiest schedule in the league, meaning we should hopefully start seeing some wins pile up. Here is a look at the games coming up this week:
March 16 – Nashville Predators (Bubble… but on a tear)
March 18 – Buffalo Sabres (Tanker)
March 21 – Vegas Golden Knights (Bubble)
The Kraken pretty much have to go 3-0-0 this week, but the target win percentages are based on the rest of the season, so there can be some losses before the end of the campaign. The games against Nashville and Vegas are especially important, though, as not only are the two points crucial for the Kraken, but not giving either of those teams points is equally important. If the Kraken are able to run the table this week, they would be back on pace for 94 points. Then next week (Mar. 22-28), the Kraken play four tanker teams, which could still (even after all the misery this past week) set them up for a last-gasp playoff push.
Overall
With the Kraken having a much easier schedule these next couple weeks, I definitely have some optimism (maybe too much) on what they can accomplish. But the players have to want it, and they have to come out every night treating every game as a playoff game. They said the right things earlier this week, but their effort on Thursday against Washington did not scream desperation.
With 17 games remaining and nine of them against Tanker teams, the Kraken have an opportunity for some wins. They have been getting solid goaltending out of both Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord since the new year.
If the Kraken can piece together some offense and string a few victories, they can put pressure on those wild card teams ahead of them.
If you were feeling down after that soul-crushing 5-4 Kraken overtime loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday, we’re here to tell you that you’re not alone. Seattle’s players were also devastated after the defeat, which ended miserably with the Golden Knights rallying back from two down—including scoring the tying goal with 16 seconds left—and winning it on a Jack Eichel breakaway in overtime.
With the context of where Seattle sits in the standings after the loss, nine points behind Vegas for the last wild card spot, it definitely felt like a season-killing loss.
“It’s been tough sledding,” goalie Joey Daccord said. “I think this whole year, I feel like we’ve been taking two steps forward, one step back, you know? We kind of had a good run there, won a couple games in a row, won two huge games on the back-to-back [against Calgary and Winnipeg], and it’s like everything’s going the right way. And then we lose a couple in a row, and it feels like the end of the world.”
What the Kraken and their fans are experiencing now is the consequence of inconsistent play earlier in the season. By allowing losing streaks to pile up all the way into the beginning of February, and by failing to close out a slew of in-the-bag games during the course of the campaign, now every missed opportunity for a regulation win could be the last straw. The Vegas loss on Tuesday was another one of those missed chances.
“When you’re leading 4-2 with… I don’t know, what was it, five minutes to go? And you end up getting only a point?” Tatar said. “This is disappointing.”
**Author’s note: The response goal from William Karlsson to make it 4-3 came with 7:37 remaining, but still, it was a two-goal lead in the third period that should have stood up.
The team knows it was a bad hit to the postseason chances, which have now dwindled all the way down to 10.1 percent, according to MoneyPuck. Even so, after chatting with several Kraken players on Wednesday, we do genuinely believe they are far from giving up on this season.
“This is all up and down,” Tatar said. “Like, we won those two games in a row, and then things all of a sudden look very reachable. Now we lose, it kind of slips away. I mean, at the end of the day, we know how many points will get you in, and we’re still in that race. There are two big games [ahead against Washington and Nashville], you just have to do the job.”
“The next one”
From speaking with Daccord, Tatar, and Andre Burakovsky, we got a consistent message that the group still believes it can make the playoffs, even though it would take a minor miracle for that to happen. (Some back-of-the-envelope math tells us the Kraken would need to win about 14 of their last 18 games and get some help from at least one of the teams they’re chasing.) They also all indicated that the focus for the team needs to be on what is happening right here and now.
“We focus on the next one,” Burakovsky said. “We can’t look ahead at where we’re playing in a week or whatever. We need to focus on the next one, win that one, and move on to the next one. Take the good parts from the next game, and move that into the next one.
“There’s a lot of games to play, we’ve got 18 left or something [like that]. We just need to win. I think overall, [Tuesday] was a good game, and we should have had that one, for sure. Unfortunately, we only got one point, but there’s a lot of points to work for, and that’s what we’ve got to do.”
Daccord added that getting too caught up in the standings and scoreboard watching can get in the players’ heads, especially when they see those teams they’re chasing continuing to find success.
“The next game, the next period, the next shift, whatever it may be, you’ve just got to stay focused and stay present with the task at hand,” Daccord said.
Not throwing in the towel
Of course, a professional hockey player would have to say all these things, because that’s what they’re expected to do in these scenarios. They can’t answer a question about how they feel about a team’s playoff chances with something like, “Oh, we have no shot,” or “There’s no way we’re getting out of this hole.”
With that in mind, it’s easy to question how wholeheartedly the players believe their own words when they talk about their drive to stay in the race. Even so, there was a certain sincerity in the sentiments of the players, especially from Daccord, who always makes you want to run through a wall.
“We’ve been through a lot of adversity this year, and it hasn’t gone our way as much as we would have liked, but I think we’re never going to give up, no matter what,” Daccord said. “And we’re just going to keep fighting as hard as we can, and at the end of the day, when all the chips are down, we’ll see where we end up… We’re a very competitive group, and we’re going to work our tails off to the very end.”
Burakovsky producing
Last week, our own Blaiz Grubic wrote an article on Burakovsky’s struggles this season. In it, he indicated that the winger’s play had improved in the last 10 games or so, and that his goal last Tuesday in Winnipeg that got him off the schneid could open the floodgates.
It’s hard to say if the floodgates are officially “open” at this point, but Burakovsky did score his second goal in three games Tuesday and said he could sense that he had been playing better hockey well before finally breaking his 18-game goalless streak.
“I have been making plays for a while and skating good and just being a little bit [unlucky with a lof of] posts and out for me,” Burakovsky said. “I want to help the team win games, and like I said, I’ve been feeling great for a while. And I mean, I don’t think because I’m scoring in the last three, it doesn’t reflect that I’m playing better. I’ve been feeling confident and playing good hockey for quite some time now. The goals have started going in for me now, and that’s basically the only difference.”
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Jordan Eberle is set to play his 1000th NHL game on Tuesday when the Seattle Kraken face the Vegas Golden Knights. He will be the second player to hit this milestone while playing with the Kraken, but the first to do it in front of a home crowd. Mark Giordano accomplished this career achievement during the team’s inaugural season, just before he was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
1000 games milestone
According to NHL.com, 8512 players and goaltenders, have played at least one regular-season game since 1963. Eberle will become only 393rd player to achieve 1000 regular-season games played, meaning less than five percent of NHL players are able to make this claim. The Canadian-born right winger currently sits at 695 points for his career.
It should be noted that the 1000 games-played milestone is measured in regular-season games only. Eberle has played in 76 post-season contests, which are not included in this total. The mile marker will come in Eberle’s 14th NHL season and third with the Kraken.
Time to celebrate
When a player hits 1,000, both NHL clubs and teammates typically join in the celebration. Teammates traditionally get a gift for the player, and for Giordano, Kraken players gifted a Rolex watch. Sometimes, there are also shenanigans afoot. The Pittsburgh Penguins, for example, mimicked the warm-up routines for both Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby in advance of those two players reaching 1,000 games played.
On the night of his 1000th game, the Penguins joined Malkin for his warmup stretching routine. 😂
NHL clubs traditionally gift the player a commemorative silver stick and sometimes silver mini-sticks for the player’s children. The Kraken honored Giordano and family with silver sticks, as well as a special jersey with No. 1000, and a ceremony with a tribute video. We don’t expect this ceremony to happen Tuesday.
Eberle’s path to 1000
Edmonton Oilers – 507 games
While playing for his hometown Regina Pats of the WHL, Eberle was drafted No. 22 overall in 2008 by the Edmonton Oilers. He continued to develop his game at the junior level before making the jump to the NHL in the 2010-11 season.
It did not take long for the rookie to make an impact, scoring his first NHL goal in his first NHL game on Oct. 7, 2010. It was a short-handed, highlight reel goal.
His first goal was so good, TSN made a spoof about:
Eberle played 507 games, served as an alternate captain for five years, and scored 382 points (165-217–382) for the Oilers. Edmonton only made the playoffs once during his seven years and decided a change was needed. Eberle was traded to the New York Islanders for Ryan Strome on June 22, 2017.
After he left Edmonton, the Oilers created the following tribute video for him:
It was learned during his first playoff appearance with the Islanders that Eberle’s playoff beard is on point.
New York Islanders – 272 games
Eberle’s role in New York had similarities to his time with the Kraken. The right wing was linemates with a new kid in town, Mathew Barzal, from the Seattle Thunderbirds. The rookie center won the Calder Trophy with Eberle on his wing, similar to what happened with Matty Beniers in his first NHL season with the Kraken.
Eberle scored 169 points (76-93–169) during his four years with New York, which also made the Stanley Cup Playoffs three of the four years he was on the team. Twice they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals before losing to the eventual Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning both seasons. In the 2019-20 season, the Isles lost to the Lightning in six games, and in 2020-21, they lost in seven games.
Eberle’s biggest goal for the Islanders came with no fans in attendance due to the pandemic and the playoffs being held in bubble cities. In Game 5 of the 2019-20 Eastern Conference Finals, with elimination on the line, Eberle one-timed a pass off a rush from Islanders captain Anders Lee in double overtime to force Game 6.
Eberle left New York via the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. The Islanders were coming off two straight Conference Finals appearances, which meant they had a solid team and had to expose some good players. It was originally thought that Eberle was going to be protected by the Islanders, but when the lists were released, Eberle was available. The Seattle Kraken smartly selected the right winger as their pick from New York.
Eberle has 144 points (55-89–144) with the Seattle Kraken, tied for second in franchise history. He has been an alternate captain for the club since the inaugural season in 2021-22 and is a calming presence in the locker room.
Coming to Seattle
Eberle was one of the six players that scrambled to make it to Seattle for the Expansion Draft, after finding out he had been selected. Here is Eberle’s first interview with Everett Fitzhugh after being drafted by the Seattle Kraken:
Eberle has been a key player for the Kraken in his three seasons here and has had some memorable moments in Deep Sea Blue. He agreed to a two-year, $9.5 million extension just hours before the NHL Trade Deadline on Friday.
Kraken highlights
Eberle scored the game-winner in Game 4 against Colorado, giving the Kraken their first playoff win at Climate Pledge Arena.
Eberle has been known throughout his career for his backhand shot, and these just might be two of his is best:
What it means
Playing in 1000 games in the NHL is an amazing achievement from a lifetime of dedication to the sport of Hockey. From the Sound Of Hockey team, congratulations Jordan Eberle on your 1000th game!
Details on when a ceremony will be held for Eberle have not been announced by the Seattle Kraken yet, but expect something in the next few home games.
The Seattle Kraken fell short of the ultimatum I set in last week’s Monday Musings of grabbing five out of a possible six points, but I can’t be upset at the effort. The boys came away with gutsy wins against the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins but fell short of gaining a point versus the Edmonton Oilers in a Saturday afternoon matinee.
This might have been the best three-game effort the Kraken have brought this season against some high-quality opponents. From top to bottom, the team is really bought in and showing the desperation to stay in the playoff hunt right now.
Unfortunately, the Kraken woke up on Monday nine points out of a wild card spot and again looking at a logjam of four teams they would need to climb over in the standings to get into the postseason. Getting in is looking less likely every day, but if the Kraken can play the rest of the season like this, I still think they have a shot.
Remaining schedule
The next four games will be the toughest four games remaining on the schedule. Even if they only manage four points of the eight available, the Kraken might be ok to stay in it as long as either the Los Angeles Kings or Nashville Predators start to lose a bit more than they win. Over the next four games, the Kraken have one game against the Calgary Flames, two against the Winnipeg Jets, and then one game against the Vegas Golden Knights. After those four games, the schedule gets easier with six out of the next eight games being against teams that are mostly eliminated from playoff contention.
Alex Wennberg
With the trade deadline this coming Friday, I worry this might be the last week we see Alex Wennberg wearing the Seattle Kraken jersey. Regular readers will know that I love Wennberg and what he has brought to this franchise. He was one of the first free agents to sign in Seattle before the team ever took the ice. I am always blown away with his play and patience with the puck, and I marvel at his footwork and board play.
I will never forget the below play during the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. A lot of the highlights won’t show his contributions to the goal, but the whole sequence doesn’t happen without his board work.
He had another great play on Monday that will go underappreciated, when he gained the zone, and as five Bruins set up to defend, Wennberg delivered a soft pass to empty ice that Will Borgen. Borgen swiftly stepped into it for a one-timer that Oliver Bjorkstrand tipped by Linus Ullmark.
🚨 CUE THE MAESTRO! 🚨
Bjorkstrand tips a Borgen shot in with 5 minutes left!
If this is truly his last week or even season with the Seattle Kraken, he will be missed. He currently leads all Kraken forwards in ice time, and he plays on the power play, penalty kill, and is often deployed in key defensive situations.
Hard sell, soft sell, or hold
What the Kraken do at the trade deadline is still anyone’s guess. I found Pierre LeBrun’s take on what the Kraken might do with their two biggest assets on expiring deals humorous. LeBrun’s take was the Kraken could re-sign Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, or they might re-sign one of them, or they might do nothing. So, they could do anything.
We published a story on the topic a couple weeks ago, in case you want to read up on that and hear what the players themselves said about the situation.
There are three trade deadline scenarios that could play out:
A hard sell would be if the Kraken trade either Alexander Wennberg and/or Jordan Eberle.
A soft sell would be if the team traded Justin Schultz and/or Tomas Tatar
Holding would be doing nothing or moving a depth piece in the system.
The fate of what they do might come down to the back-to-back games to start this week. Two wins, and they might hold. Two losses, and I think a hard sell will be kicked into motion. I do think there is a way this team could make the playoffs even with a “soft-sell,” where maybe it trades only Schultz and has Ryker Evans slot in for him the rest of the way (just as an example).
Other Musings
After a successful goalie interference challenge last Monday against the Bruins, the Kraken are two for two in goalie interference challenges this season. The success rate for goalie challenges league wide is 63 percent.
The Boston game was the 17th overtime game of the season for Seattle. That tied the full-season total from 2022-23, so the next overtime game this season will mean the most OT games in a single season for the Kraken. Here is how overtime games have broken down by seasons.
If the Kraken start the week with two regulation losses, the season is probably cooked, and I would appreciate people checking in on me on Wednesday morning.
Tuesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets will be the first time the Kraken square off against the Jets this season. Winnipeg is the only team in the league the Kraken have not faced this season, but they will play two in a row against them this week.
The Kraken are still winless at home on Saturdays this season. The loss to Edmonton pushed their Saturday home record to 0-5-2. The Kraken have two more Saturday home games remaining this season.
It is great to see Philipp Grubauer getting in a groove. He has a .942 save percentage with a 4-1-0 record since coming back from injury. Outside of last season’s playoffs, this is probably his best stretch of games he has played with the Kraken.
Player performances
Morgan Geekie (BOS) – The former Seattle Kraken and Tri-City American had his first career hat-trick against the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. We continue to root for Geekie as long as he isn’t playing against the Kraken.
Philipp Grubauer (SEA) – Grubauer had a .944 save percentage and a 2-1-0 record on the week including a shutout against the Penguins, his first of the season.
Jagger Firkus (MJW/SEA) and Carson Rehkopf (KIT/SEA) – Both players might be the most mentioned players in the Monday Musings for the season. Both Seattle Kraken prospects are having outstanding years for their respective clubs, and both eclipsed the 50-goal mark on Sunday.
For those that might have missed it, we had two outstanding guests on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast this week with Piper Shaw and Alison Lukan in studio. The episode was packed with tomfoolery and hijinks, but there was also plenty of Kraken insight, so give it a listen.
One thing Alison called out was Andre Burakovsky’s actions that helped with the Vince Dunn goal against Boston. The breakdown is in her below tweet.
2-2
Dunn with the equalizer but Burakovsky is so critical here – this comes right after a shift where he dangled right in front of Ullmark…BOS knows they have to defend him – he draws two and Dunn has plenty of space to send in the shot that gets in net. #SeaKrakenpic.twitter.com/exF4UYDOH0
Also, on the podcast we discussed a different framing of shots and shot attempts, called ‘shots on target.’ It’s just shots on goal, but in context of shot attempts, you could widen the lens to evaluate how many shot attempts actually get to the goalie. So, naturally, I investigated it.
I originally started just looking at percentage of shots on target, and that showed Seattle had the second-lowest percentage of shot attempts that are on target. When I saw Carolina below the Kraken, I felt it needed additional context since Carolina is one of the better teams in the league this season. I then added total shot attempts per game to help add more color to the story.
This was pulled together in about 30 minutes on Monday morning, so there is still a lot more to dig into here, but it is an interesting perspective to start evaluating some of the shooting performances across the NHL.
The week ahead
I have been implying the Kraken’s situation (in terms of making the playoffs) has been dire for a while. They have been staying afloat, but the Predators have really started to separate from the rest of the pack and currently have a nine-point advantage on the Kraken for the last playoff spot. Seattle still has two games in hand but will need to climb over a few teams, even if Nashville starts to falter. I am also ready to lock the Kings into a playoff spot at this point, which only leaves that Nashville spot.
The first half of March has the Kraken facing some quality opponents, and that kicks off this week with a game Monday against an equally desperate Calgary Flames team and two games against the Central Division leaders, the Winnipeg Jets. Anything less than four points and at least one against Calgary might sink these Kraken playoff dreams in season three. The team has been playing well and still shows a lot of compete that has me clinging to a few last shreds of hope.
As always, thank you for making it this far. If you have questions, thoughts, or reactions, feel free to leave a note in the comments and I will do my best to respond and engage.
Almost two months have passed since we first outlined the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken. In that first iteration, we concluded the Kraken would need to hit 93 points to give themselves a 50-percent chance at making the playoffs. They fell three points behind the 93-point pace in January, so they needed to obtain 11 points in February to get back on track. They did just that.
It was a bumpy ride in February, but in the end, the Kraken finished the month 5-3-1 (exactly 11 points), capping it off with Philipp Grubauer’s first-ever shutout at Climate Pledge Area and first shutout of the season.
February review
List of games: LOSS – Sat, Feb. 10 @ Philadelphia 3 – 2 (Bubble) LOSS – Mon, Feb. 12 @ New Jersey 3 – 1 (Bubble) WIN – Tue, Feb. 13 @ NY Islanders 2 – 1 SO (Bubble) WIN – Thu, Feb. 15 @ Boston 4 – 1 (Playoff Bound) OT LOSS – Mon, Feb. 19 vs Detroit 4 – 3 (Bubble) WIN – Thu, Feb. 22 vs Vancouver 5 – 2 (Playoff Bound) LOSS – Sat, Feb. 24 vs Minnesota 5 – 2 (Bubble) WIN – Mon, Feb. 26 vs Boston 4 – 3 SO (Playoff Bound) WIN – Thu, Feb. 29 vs Pittsburgh 2 – 0 (Bubble)
Bubble teams:
Let us start with the lows of the month, which is how the Kraken fared against Bubble teams. After the NHL All-Star break, the Kraken came out flat and lost two straight games to the Flyers and Devils. That really put Seattle in a hole and increased the pressure to perform. Later in the month, the Kraken laid an egg, losing 5-2 to the Wild for their third loss to a Bubble team.
Goaltending:
Joey Daccord is showing signs of cooling off. He had one win during the month of February and four losses (three in regulation, one in overtime). He was also pulled in the Minnesota game, but on the positive side, he still held a respectable .904 save percentage for the month. The one win came against the Boston Bruins and was a bright spot for the Massachusetts native. Another player by the name of “Post, Clang” might have had a few saves in the Boston game as well.
On the flip side, as the team struggled with Daccord in net, they excelled with Grubauer and went 4-0-0 in his starts. The wins included Grubauer’s shutout of the Penguins, two shootout wins against the Islanders and Bruins, and another regulation win against the Canucks. The German Gentleman did not always need to be his best but looked solid in his return from injury. Grubauer posted a stingy .947 save percentage during the month of February.
Playoff-Bound teams:
The Kraken were a perfect 3-0 against Playoff-Bound teams, which highlights what this team is capable of achieving. Two wins against Boston and one win against Vancouver is something to build on with March now upon us. Continuing to succeed against top teams will be key to the Kraken’s chances of making the playoffs.
February overall:
In the original article on the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken, 93 points was shown to give a team a 50-percent chance of making the playoffs. Things that were hard to watch:
The Loss to the Wild resulted in a four-point swing
The Predators going on an amazing 9-1-0 run through the month
Remember, neither of these items changes the math. The Kraken need 30 points out of a possible 46 points to hit the 93-point target for the rest of the season. This works out to a .652 points percentage.
Focusing on March:
March is a busy month with 14 games on the schedule and the trade deadline fast approaching on March 8. Of the 14 games, six are against Playoff-Bound teams, three are against Bubble teams, and five are against Tanker teams. The Arizona Coyotes have gone 0-8-2 in their last 10 games and have been relegated to the Tanker teams. No other changes to team categorizations were made. Here is a list of the team categorizations:
Trade Deadline:
There are three more games before the trade deadline, but the Seattle Kraken are probably not going to get all the answers to their playoff hopes from just those games. Eyes will be on the Predators who also have three games before the trade deadline. If the Predators are able to widen their wild card lead even more, the Kraken might turn to being sellers at the deadline.
It should be noted that the Predators have two games in hand, so the current seven-point (as of Feb. 29) lead over the Kraken could be as small as three points. But everything would need to go in the Kraken’s favor over the next week for that to be true.
Wrap up:
March could very well play out similarly to February, as the first seven games are against tough opponents, before Seattle finishes the month with five of its last seven games in the month against Tankers. Strap in for another bumpy ride, but we should know the Kraken’s playoff fate by the end of this month.
In last week’s Monday Musings, I highlighted the Seattle Kraken’s quest for a playoff berth. To stay in hunt, I forecasted they would need at least three points from their three games that week. They stumbled out of the gate with a 3-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils, leaving a lot of us with little hope. The very next night, they secured a 2-1 shootout victory against the New York Islanders, and then followed that up with a gritty 4-1 win against the Boston Bruins, earning a total of four out of six points available over those three games.
The Kraken still find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture with most experts giving them a 15-30 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Western Conference wild card race is particularly intense, with seven teams vying for two spots. It’s rare to see such a tight race with so many teams in the conversation this late in the season. Each of these teams is just one hot streak away from securing a coveted playoff position. The fact that both wild card spots remain up for grabs gives me hope that the Kraken can defy the odds and clinch a postseason berth.
Eight of the remaining 28 Kraken games are against these “in the hunt” opponents. It is true that earning two points against one of these teams is as valuable as against any other team, but the crucial difference lies in preventing these teams from gaining points. I recall the St. Louis game on Jan. 26. For the most part, the Kraken dominated that game and should have won in regulation, but the Blues managed to hang around and ultimately won it in overtime. Consequently, the Kraken secured only one point instead of two, while the Blues earned two points instead of none. This resulted in a three-point swing in favor of the Blues.
If the Kraken had won that game in regulation, the Blues, currently holding the second wild card spot, would have 58 points, and the Kraken would have 57 points. Although the Blues would still occupy the wild card spot, their lead over the Kraken would have been reduced to just one point. I understand that dwelling on past events serves no purpose, but it highlights the critical nature of these head-to-head matchups.
Matt Rempe and Andy Eide
As soon as the former Seattle Thunderbird Matt Rempe was called up to the New York Rangers, I thought of our dear friend Andy Eide. Andy loved Rempe and would have been so stoked to see him make his NHL debut. Andy wrote a great story about Rempe halfway through his rookie season.
Rempe was always a long shot to make it. He was not drafted in the WHL Bantam Draft and was a sixth-round selection by the New York Rangers in 2020. Andy always treated the junior players really well and was mindful that these elite athletes were just kids, and he always had a soft spot for the dark horses. He used to love to talk about Scott Eansor, Cade McNelly, and Matt Wedman. There were others, but those are the ones that stood out for me.
Like Rempe, all those players are household names to Thunderbirds fans, and Andy would share these players’ names beyond the Thunderbirds’ fan base. Rempe had quite the debut: an outdoor game and a fight one second into his first shift.
Since the Winter Classic, the Seattle Kraken have captured 86 percent of the points available when scoring first and only 28 percent of the points when trailing first. They scored first in the Islanders game and trailed first in the Flyers, Devils, and Bruins games.
The Kraken scored their first power-play goal in five games on Thursday against the Bruins, their longest drought of the year. It isn’t that the Kraken’s power play has been bad as of late, they just have not been drawing the opportunities. They rank just 30th in the league in power-play opportunities per game with 2.74. Last season they were 21st in the league. I can’t pinpoint the root cause of it, other than it is driven by a lack of high-end talent.
It was fun to see the boys ribbing Andre Burakovsky for his blocked shot against the Boston Bruins. That was his seventh blocked shot of the season, three more than Marian Studenic, who played two games for the Kraken.
Joking aside, I think the last two games have been Burakovsky’s best games of the season. He is due for a breakout game. (If I say this every week, eventually I will be right).
Do not be surprised if Jordan Eberle remains with the team after the trade deadline without signing an extension. Eberle has made it clear that he wants to stay in Seattle, and the Kraken brass see an opportunity for him to continue his career here as well. Both realize there is a fit and are comfortable waiting to see if they can work something out.
Just a friendly reminder that the Kraken will be wearing the Winter Classic jerseys next Saturday when they take on the Minnesota Wild. Seattle’s goalies were seen wearing their WC gear at practice this weekend.
The Coachella Valley Firebirds announced that Shane Wright is currently out day to day after this hit on Thursday.
I mentioned Carson Rehkopf last week, and it seems like I can’t go a week without mentioning him. He had five points in two games over the weekend. Maybe I should give him his own section.
The Portland Winterhawks and Everett Silvertips both clinched playoff spots in the WHL. Both teams are power houses in the US Division, and I would not be surprised if either of them made the WHL Finals this season.
The PWHL set a record attendance figure to see a women’s hockey game on Friday. 19,285 fans saw Toronto beat Montreal at Scotiabank Arena. The league is averaging 5,527 due to the limited capacity of the arenas they are currently playing in. Before the Scotiabank Arena game, the Toronto team usually plays in Mattamy Athletic Centre, an arena with a capacity of 2,796. This league appears to be exceeding expectations, and I am excited to see how they build on this momentum.
I am often asked about the possible expansion of women’s pro hockey to Seattle. It is possible, but I believe a prerequisite will be a suitable arena with a capacity of 8K to 10K within five miles of downtown Seattle or Bellevue. I also think it would require some additional teams in Western Canada to create clusters of teams to ease travel.
Finally, if you are expecting a lot of action in the trade market this week, you are in luck. Things typically start to ratchet up about two weeks before the deadline, which would mean they will start around Feb. 23. It’s usually a slow burn for about a week after that, and then things increase the five days before the March 8 deadline.
Players of the week
Matty Beniers (SEA) – He had big performances in his last two games with four points, including this beauty of a sequence.
MATTY MAGIC! 🚨
That's one way to respond after a tough turnover last game.
Beniers goes HARD into the boards after a collision with Pulock, but seconds later, he scores his seventh goal of the season.
Chris Driedger (CVF) – Posted a .942 save percentage over three games for the Coachella Valley Firebirds with two shutouts. Driedger is showcasing his work to future employers, since his three-year deal with the Kraken ends this season. We’ve always liked Driedger and will be rooting for him to find a spot that will give him an NHL opportunity this summer.
Zaccharya Wisdom (CCT) – The Kraken’s seventh-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had seven points in his two games against North Dakota over the weekend including this four-goal performance.
We have been big fans of Seattle Kraken prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard ever since he appeared on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last summer. So, when he delights, we like to amplify.
The week ahead
Let me know if you have heard this before, but the Kraken have a big week in front of them, and every point will be critical. This week seems particularly challenging with two games against playoff bubble teams and another one against a playoff lock. The bubble teams, Detroit and Minnesota, will be playing for their postseason lives while Vancouver currently has the best record in the league. The Minnesota game seems particularly huge given that they are tied in the standings. It feels like the Kraken need to get four out of a possible six points this week with at least one point against the Wild.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to buckle up for this home stretch.
