With Berkly Catton on the shelf for the foreseeable future, out week-to-week with an upper-body injury, it puts a pause to his much anticipated rookie season.
It was promising to see him out with a red sweater at morning skate on Sunday morning, but coach Lane Lambert said he’s still pretty far from a return.
20 games (well, 21 now) into his NHL career, the 19-year-old remains one of the youngest players in the league. Yet, it’s looking more and more like he will stay with the team for the entire season.
There are a lot of high hopes for Catton among Kraken faithful, with many thinking his playmaking abilities would pay dividends right away for a team that has struggled to find a consistent source of offense. In certain ways he has helped in this regard, but the player who once scored 54 goals in a season in the WHL has yet to find the back of the net as a pro, so the scoring touch hasn’t yet translated.
Obviously, the first 20 games are not going to define the next 20, the next 200 or an entire career. Not all development paths are created equal, but this is a large enough sample size to begin comparing and contrasting.
So, while his season is on pause, let’s take some time to compare Catton’s first 20 games with the other two Kraken first-rounders to reach that mark: Matty Beniers and Shane Wright.
Catton’s first 20
The Kraken had the option of sending Catton back to the Spokane Chiefs for another season, where he did not have much left to prove, or keeping him in the NHL for a full year and burning a season of his entry-level contract.
Drafted No. 8 overall by the Kraken in 2024, the decision to have him spend his first season in the pro ranks was a heavily calculated one by the front office and coaching staff, who felt it was in his best interest to stay in the NHL and learn the ropes a little earlier than normal.
Catton has experienced some ups and downs to start his NHL career. He came out of the gates hot with three assists in his first five games, including an assist in his debut.
But he went quiet over his next 15, recording only two helpers. He’s totaled 17 shots on goal so far with some quality chances, but he just hasn’t been able to finish.
He’s getting close, though, and gaining confidence along the way. Here’s one of those opportunities he had against the Islanders on Nov. 23.
Golden opportunity for Berkly Catton to get his first NHL goal, but Rittich shuts it down.
Catton has spent the majority of his young career playing on a line with Jordan Eberle and the aforementioned Wright, but he has also seen his fair share of different combinations—six in total, according to MoneyPuck.
He was averaging a little more than 12 minutes per night, with that number fluctuating game-to-game, as it often does for players his age.
Comparing it to Wright and Beniers
Wright, drafted No. 4 overall by the Kraken in 2022, split his first 20 NHL games across three seasons from 2022-23 to 2024-2025. He spent time in the OHL, AHL and at World Juniors between his NHL debut and reaching the 20-game mark.
When he was on the ice with the Kraken during those early stints, he produced at roughly the same pace he is producing at now, totaling five goals and two assists while getting about 11 minutes a game. It took Wright until the eighth game of his career to score his first NHL goal, memorably against Montreal.
While Wright hasn’t been the world-breaker he was hyped to be during his junior career, he has still developed into a solid NHL producer, with 63 points in 124 games.
Matty Beniers, meanwhile, is much more of an outlier when it comes to early-career production for the Kraken. His Rookie of the Year award and scoring in just his second ever game underscore that point.
Through his first 20 games, 10 at the end of the 2021-22 season and 10 in 2022-23, Beniers averaged nearly a point per game at seven goals and 10 assists. He was playing more than 18 minutes per night, a luxury that came when the Kraken were just starting out and building their foundation.
What’s to come…
In terms of production, it’s safe to say Catton’s first 20 games looked far more like Wright’s than Beniers’, although his path to 20 has been far more linear than that of Wright. While Catton is probably the most offensively gifted player of the three, it was always going to take something monumental to match Beniers’ first-year totals.
Many different factors play into these development paths. Top picks are always given plenty of runway, and Catton, like the rest of the Kraken’s first-rounders (all of whom are still under the age of 23), undoubtedly has way more time to become the player he was drafted to be. Benchmarks like these simply give context for what may come next.
So when he gets back, how do you think the next 20 games will look for Catton?
Going into Saturday night’s game against the Detroit Red Wings, the Seattle Kraken were riding a four-game losing streak, capped by an embarrassing 9–4 drubbing by the Edmonton Oilers just two nights earlier. The team had been sliding down the Pacific Division standings, and it felt like one of those “must-win” games to stop the bleeding, at least temporarily. As you probably know by now, the Kraken came up short again, dropping another one in regulation despite a mostly solid effort.
They now sit sixth in the Pacific after being as high as second just two weeks ago. It feels like the team is in a full-on death spiral and drifting toward irrelevance again. But is it really that dire? No, not quite. If you’re in “must-win” territory in December, the problems run deeper than standings position.
When you sort the division by point percentage, the Kraken are actually fourth, and they’ve played the fewest games in the league. Is there reason for concern? Absolutely. But if you’d offered this position in the standings before the season started, most fans probably would’ve signed up for it on the spot.
The real anchor this week was that Oilers game, giving up nine goals, including four on the power play. That set a franchise record for most goals allowed in a single outing, and if not for a last-second Jani Nyman tally, it would’ve matched their worst-ever goal differential too. If you could magically erase that one from memory, the narrative around this losing streak would look a little different.
A sign of some offense?
For as rough as the week felt, the Kraken did show some signs of life offensively. Seven goals in two games isn’t exactly fireworks, but compare that to the two goals they mustered over the previous three games. Their 74 and 77 shot attempts against the Oilers and Red Wings, respectively, are actually their top two totals of the season.
Vince Dunn summed things up well when he talked to Piper Shaw after the 4–3 loss to Detroit: “I think we’re finally fixing the things that we weren’t doing so well, and then now we’re maybe slipping a little bit with the things that we were doing so well. So it’s about balance right now and battling through the adversity that we’re going through.”
Now, it’s only a two-game sample, so we can’t exactly call it a trend. But in a week where silver linings were scarce, the uptick in shot volume does stand out. If they can pair that with the defensive structure we saw early in the season, maybe they can pull themselves out of this skid.
Face-off possession challenges
Face-offs continue to be an issue for the Kraken, and more specifically, what happens after the actual draw. The league doesn’t publicly track post-face-off possession, so I usually use shot attempts within 10 seconds of a face-off as a proxy. By that measure, Seattle ranks 28th in the NHL with 6.7 face-off shot attempts per game, and they sit 26th in allowing face-off attempts against. Not ideal.
I am not sure if anyone caught it but several times in the Detroit game Kraken head coach Lane Lambert sent out Freddy Gaudreau and Chandler Stephenson together for a face-off to increase their chances of possession and to have a true center available in case the first one got booted out of the circle.
Other musings
Seattle scored two rebound goals in that same game, giving them 10 on the season, which is tied for eighth in the league. That’s one of the perks of actually getting pucks to the net.
The Kraken are the only team in the Pacific Division that hasn’t scored six or more goals in a game this season, something they did 10 times last year.
With Freddy Gaudreau scoring on Thursday, Berkly Catton is now the lone forward on the roster without a goal. The good news: he’s generated more shot attempts in his last five games than in any other five-game stretch this season. The bad news, though, is that the team announced he will miss a week with an upper-body injury. We believe the injury came on his third-period shot block against the Red Wings.
Catton will not be loaned to Team Canada for the World Junior Championship this month. The Jaden Schwartz injury seems to have shifted the calculus there, and plus, Catton is now injured.
Speaking of Schwartz… I’ll probably keep saying this for the next month, but the Kraken really miss him, especially on the power play.
It’s been a hot topic on this site and the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, but the penalty kill has been rough lately. Here’s a look at the numbers over the last 10 games.
There’s been a lot of chatter about Shane Wright’s ice time. What I do know is that it’s not as simple as “just play him more.” My hunch is that Lambert doesn’t fully trust Wright in face-off situations, and with the Kraken killing penalties more often lately, that matters. That’s speculation, sure—but it’s rooted in the data.
On the topic of uneducated ranting, I’m a little surprised Philipp Grubauer hasn’t gotten a start recently (he will start Monday against Minnesota). Joey Daccord has had more than a couple games where he hasn’t looked particularly sharp, and it probably wouldn’t hurt to give him a breather. Grubauer has looked good enough to at least get a turn in the net.
I really love Adam Larsson goals.
29 ➡️ 6 ➡️ 🚨
and with the assist on Adam Larsson’s goal, Vince Dunn has officially tallied his 300th @NHL point! Congrats, Dunner 👏 pic.twitter.com/vA6REEB6Ko
The Kraken haven’t scored the first goal in five straight games—and they’ve lost all five.
After a slow start to the season, the Coachella Valley Firebirds have turned things around, going 7-2-1 over their last 10. As is usually the case in the AHL, the scoring is coming from a mix of vets and young prospects. Jagger Firkus has 11 goals in 21 games, and Ben Meyers has nine in just 11.
Congrats to 2025 first-round pick Jake O’Brien on being invited to Canada’s World Junior camp. O’Brien leads the OHL with 45 points this season.
Goal of the week
Seattle’s 2022 sixth-round pick, Barrett Hall, scored a slick shorthanded goal against North Dakota over the weekend. He’s now up to seven goals halfway through the season, already matching his total from 2024–25.
— St. Cloud State Men’s Hockey (@SCSUHuskies_MH) December 6, 2025
Player performances
Ben Meyers (CVF/SEA) – Meyers had four points in three games this week and has picked up at least one point in every game he’s played for Coachella Valley this season.
Semyon Vyazovoi (SYU/SEA) – The Kraken’s sixth-round pick from 2021 posted a .913 save percentage over three games for Salavat Yulaev in the KHL last week. He has the eighth-best save percentage in the league right now and is expected to come to North America next season.
Jesse Heslop (EVT) – The Everett winger put up four points in three games this past week and is riding a seven-game point streak.
The week ahead
After back-to-back two-game weeks, things are about to get a lot busier with four games this week and nine in a 16-day stretch. By the time we hit the Christmas break, we should have a much clearer sense of what this team actually is.
Seattle faces Minnesota (Monday at home), Los Angeles (Wednesday at home), Utah (Friday in Utah), and Buffalo (Sunday at home). I’m not taking anyone lightly these days, so “easy outs” don’t exist. The Kraken have been better at home this season, though, so with three home dates, you’d hope they can snap the losing streak sooner rather than later—preferably before Sunday rolls around.
Minnesota is 7-2-1 in its last 10, but those two losses came in their most recent games against Calgary and Vancouver, so maybe they’re not quite the buzzsaw they looked like a week ago. Still, nothing is guaranteed.
Regardless of what happens Monday, getting a regulation win over LA on Wednesday would be huge. The Kings enter the week five points ahead of Seattle but have played two more games. The two teams are also among the lowest-scoring clubs in the league. I’m told someone has to score to win, so something needs to give… or maybe not.
Utah sits ahead of Seattle as well, holding the last wild card spot with 31 points—three more than the Kraken—but they’ve also played four extra games, so that cushion is a bit inflated. What could go wrong in Utah?
As for Buffalo… I genuinely don’t want to imagine losing that one, but we’ve all lived through a “no way they lose this” meltdown before, so let’s just not tempt fate. The Sabres are one of the worst teams in the league, but they’ve actually won five of their last 10, which—sadly—is one point better than Seattle over that stretch.
At this point, I’d be content with four out of eight points this week. That won’t move them in the standings, but it at least keeps them in the fight. I’ll be popping champagne if they find a way to grab six. And no matter what the results are, I really hope they can figure out the penalty kill. One kill in your last eight is, without exaggeration, a disaster.
Welcome to the December edition of Strive for 95. The Seattle Kraken did what was needed in November and remain on pace for 95 points. The Kraken sit in the second wild card spot and have played only 24 games, tied for the fewest in the NHL with two other teams.
Seattle is on a short break and will not play again until Thursday. At that point, they will have played the fewest games of any NHL team. Having games in hand is a good thing, especially when you are already in a playoff position. All stats and standings are based on the month of November and current as of Nov. 30 unless otherwise stated.
I feel like I say it every month, but this was another roller coaster of a stretch.
November recap
The month started well with three points in the first two games. Then San Jose handed Seattle its worst loss of the season, a 6-1 defeat. Joey Daccord was pulled in that game and was placed on injured reserve days later, though the injury was believed to have happened during practice. With Philipp Grubauer and Matt Murray set to split the net, Kraken fans held their breath expecting a slide. That never came. Grubauer and Murray combined for six starts and earned nine points. Watching the Kraken stay competitive regardless of who is in net was a huge confidence boost. Grubauer finished the month with a .917 save percentage, while Murray posted a .939.
Murray was injured in the second matchup against San Jose, though, just as Daccord returned from IR. Spirits were still high, and Seattle earned five points on a four-game road swing. That is where the Kraken’s lack of scoring caught up with them as they dropped the final two games of the month in regulation to Dallas and Edmonton.
Over the last six games, Seattle scored only nine goals and was shut out twice. One shutout came against the New York Islanders on the second leg of a back-to-back. Miraculously, Daccord also recorded a shutout, sending the game to a shootout. Seattle fell 1-0, but it snapped a streak of 15 straight regulation losses in the second leg of back-to-back games. Their previous point in a second game of a back-to-back came on Mar. 21, 2024, in an overtime loss to Arizona.
Seattle posted a 6-5-3 record for 15 points in 14 games, two points under their November target. They were two points over target in October, so the overall pace remains on track for 95.
Updated tiers
As of Nov. 30, every NHL team is within striking distance of a playoff spot. Nashville sits last in the league but is only seven points out. The East is even tighter, with all teams within five points of a spot. Both the Playoff Bound and Tanker tiers were reduced to five and four teams, reflecting how tightly packed the standings have become.
Bolded teams are teams the Kraken play this month. ‘x2’ indicates the Kraken face that team twice. Up and down arrows show teams that moved between tiers.
Notes on tier movement
Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay jumped to the Playoff Bound tier after an 11-3 month and is currently on a seven-game win streak. Boston moved up after a 9-5 month that lifted them to second in the division, though they have played 27 games, and others hold games in hand. Florida and Toronto dropped from the Playoff Bound tier, with both teams four points out of a playoff spot and hovering around .500.
Metropolitan Division: Washington was the only change. The Capitals went 9-4-2 and won seven of their last eight. The push only moved them to third in the division, which is solid but not enough to justify a Playoff Bound spot with three teams right behind them and Philadelphia and Pittsburgh each holding two games in hand. Another strong month could move them back up, but for now the standings are too tight.
Central Division: Shame, shame, shame. I got it wrong last month, so this division needed a reset. Dallas, second overall in the NHL, moved back to the Playoff Bound tier. Utah fell back to earth with a 4-8-3 month and now sits one spot out of a playoff position. Minnesota rebelled against their Tankers label by going 11-1-2 and rose to the very top of the Bubble tier. Winnipeg fell to the Bubble tier with eight losses in November and arthroscopic knee surgery for Connor Hellebuyck that will sideline him four to six weeks. St. Louis moved up to the Bubble tier after earning points in 11 of 15 games. They are 0-7 in overtime and shootout games, which should even out at some point. Their negative 23 goal differential is second worst in the league, but 10 of their last 11 games in November have been one-goal contests.
Pacific Division: Anaheim leads the division with 31 points. Los Angeles has the same point total but trails in regulation wins. That is the lowest point total to lead any division, so both remain in the Bubble tier. Vegas went 5-4-5 and dropped to third, removing them from the Playoff Bound tier. With no clear front-runner, the Playoff Bound tier remains empty. San Jose continued to surprise with a 9-5-1 month and moved up to the Bubble tier.
Overtime games
A key reason for the tight standings is the surge in overtime games. Through Nov. 30, 27.9 percent of games have required overtime.
Over the last eight full seasons, the average was 22.1 percent. This season’s rate is a 5.8 percent increase. Sound Of Hockey’s John Barr found this is the highest percentage since overtime was reintroduced 42 years ago.
Through 360 games, this is the fewest # of games that have ended in regulation since the NHL (re)introduced overtime games in 1983-84. pic.twitter.com/0IjP3fLGMB
December offers Seattle its most favorable travel schedule. The Kraken will travel 5,302 miles, all within the Western Conference. Their longest trip is a four-game swing, with three of those games in California, which minimizes travel. With 13 games scheduled, the average travel per game is 408 miles, the lowest of any month. April has the fewest travel miles, but that is mainly because the Kraken play only nine games that month.
The Kraken have two sets of back-to-back games to close the month as they try to snap their 17-game losing streak in the second leg. Both back ends come against Pacific Division opponents, giving Seattle a chance to gain ground while preventing others from doing the same. In total, the Kraken play 10 Western Conference teams in December, making this a pivotal month.
Playoff Bound tier
Colorado visits Seattle for the first of three meetings. The Avalanche have been dominant with just one regulation loss all season. The target for this game is one point.
Bubble tier
With the standings extremely tight, 23 teams fall into this tier and only eight points separate them. Minnesota leads this group with 33 points. St. Louis, Florida, and Toronto sit at 25. Seattle has nine games against Bubble teams. They face eight Bubble tier opponents this month: Detroit, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Utah, Anaheim, Edmonton, San Jose, and two against Los Angeles. The target for these games is 11 points.
Tanker tier
Seattle has three games against Tanker tier teams: Buffalo and Vancouver at home, and Calgary on the road. The target is four points.
Target win percentages
With the increase in Bubble-tier teams, the target point percentages were adjusted to keep Seattle on pace for 95 points. The overall target for the month of December is 16 points.
Wrapping up
Seattle’s next game is Thursday, Dec. 4, in a rematch with Edmonton. With five teams within two points of the Kraken, they could find themselves outside the playoff picture by puck drop. They will still hold two to four games in hand over every Western Conference team, giving them a chance to climb back quickly while flying under the radar a bit.
Seattle ended the month with a shutout loss to Edmonton, but November was a solid month overall. With four days off before their next game, you can imagine the team will focus on two areas: improving special teams, which went 0-for-6 on the power play and 0-for-2 on the penalty kill, and generating more scoring chances.
The Kraken have proved they can shut teams down, allowing just 2.63 goals per game, which ranks fifth in the NHL. If they can pair that steady defensive play with a bit more scoring, they will stay on pace for 95 points. Comment below on where you think the offensive spark will come from.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Now that Thanksgiving has passed, we can finally, confidently, and with absolutely no doubt declare who will make the playoffs. Just kidding, but historically about 75 percent of teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving go on to the postseason, so the odds are in those teams’ favor.
Last month we reviewed teams in playoff position on Halloween to see if an earlier date could serve as an indicator of playoff contention.
Here is a breakdown of how each standings position fares in reaching the postseason at Thanksgiving.
As expected, teams in first and second place in their division fare better, but with more than 60 percent success from wild card teams and third-place teams, these spots still reach the playoffs more often than not.
Here is how the playoff picture looks at the Thanksgiving checkpoint.
Kraken update on playoff position
The Kraken improved their standing from the last wild card spot at Halloween to third in the Pacific Division on Thanksgiving.
It may have been easy to write off their strong start in October, but Seattle has continued to accrue points by playing tight, defensive games. Because of this, they are tied for eighth in the NHL with 28 points. Their new defensive identity has made them a tough team to score against, allowing 2.57 goals per game, second only to the Colorado Avalanche at 2.09.
Over the last eight full NHL seasons, teams sitting in third place in their division at this juncture have made the playoffs 62.5 percent of the time.
On Thanksgiving Eve, the Kraken were holding second place but fell to the Dallas Stars. Vegas gained a point in a shootout loss to Ottawa, and both Seattle and Vegas now sit at 28 points. Vegas holds the tiebreaker with nine regulation wins compared with Seattle’s seven. Historically, second place in the division fares best, making the playoffs 90.6 percent of the time.
Standings differences since Halloween
There were five teams in playoff position at Halloween that now sit outside the picture: the Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Winnipeg Jets. That means 68.8 percent (11 of 16) of teams in position on Halloween remain in position at Thanksgiving. This roughly matches the Halloween historical success rate of 66.4 percent, which surprised me.
Crowded standings
With about 75 percent of the season remaining, no playoff spot is secure. While Thanksgiving can serve as an indicator, it is important to examine other factors. As John Barr pointed out in his 10 for 10 series, the standings are crowded this year.
In the Eastern Conference, the standings are extremely tight, with every team within five points of a playoff spot. Four teams are tied for the final wild card spot, so the playoff picture can shift any night.
In the Western Conference, the standings are starting to separate, but five teams remain within five points of a playoff spot. The Avalanche, with a league-leading 39 points, are pulling away. They have one regulation loss this season and are riding a 10-game win streak.
In the Pacific Division, the top four teams are bunched up. The Anaheim Ducks (yes, the Ducks) lead with 29 points. Vegas, Seattle, and Los Angeles are even at 28, with tiebreakers needed to sort them. Vegas holds the edge in regulation wins, while Seattle holds a slight advantage over LA in regulation and overtime wins.
Overtime games
This season, fans have noticed the Kraken going to overtime more often, and they are right. Seattle has appeared in 10 overtime games through 23 contests (43.5 percent). Before this season, they went to overtime in 21 percent of regular-season games. This big jump is most likely tied to their defensive style, which has resulted in low-scoring games.
Through 360 games, this is the fewest # of games that have ended in regulation since the NHL (re)introduced overtime games in 1983-84. pic.twitter.com/0IjP3fLGMB
Although the Kraken are tied for first in OT appearances with 10, the entire league is seeing more overtime games. The NHL is at 28 percent of games needing extra time, a six percent increase over the last eight full seasons. The Pacific Division leads the charge with 34.2 percent. Eight NHL teams have nine or more OT games, and five of them are in the Pacific Division.
The high number of OT appearances has both helped and hurt Seattle. The drawback appears in regulation wins, where they have seven, tied with LA for the lowest among playoff-position teams. This could matter later, as regulation wins are the top tiebreaker.
On the positive side, Seattle has banked 14 points in their 10 OT games. They are 4-3 in 3-on-3 overtime but winless in shootouts, dropping all three. It is easy to get frustrated by shootouts, but they have no bearing in the playoffs aside from the extra standings point. Even with no shootout wins, Seattle sits just one win below .500 in OT and SO games.
The bigger indicator of playoff success is regulation wins. For example, in Seattle’s only playoff appearance, they entered as the first wild card and faced the heavily favored Avalanche. Even though Colorado won the Central Division, Seattle had more regulation wins (37 to 36). It was a closer matchup than many realized, and the Kraken knocked out the defending Stanley Cup champions in seven games.
The takeaway: do not get hung up on OT or SO results. Take the point and move on. Seattle’s results in extra-time games should even out as the season progresses, and the steady stream of loser points should keep them in the race just as it has through the first quarter of the season.
Wrapping up
The Kraken still have work to do, but they are in a better position than many preseason rankings predicted. They have continued to find success despite injuries and inconsistent scoring. Seattle is a hard team to play against, and its experience in close games should help if (or when) the Kraken return to the playoffs. That is especially true in playoff overtime, where play stays at 5-on-5.
Next up is a home-and-home against the Oilers, starting Saturday at Climate Pledge Arena. Edmonton will have a chip on its shoulder after a rough 8-3 loss to the Dallas Stars. This is the second of four matchups this season. Seattle won the first one and held Connor McDavid without a point or shot on net.
What do you think of the Thanksgiving cutoff as an indicator? Leave your comments below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Most of my podcast listening time comes while walking my two dogs, George and Eddie. A few weeks ago, when the Kraken were 2-0, I found myself listening to a 32 Thoughts episode from Oct. 13 about not overreacting to two games. I don’t remember much from the podcast, but Elliotte Friedman made a statement that made me look at George and Eddie with a quizzical look and think, “Is that true?”
Friedman said that by Nov. 1, teams that are four or more points out of the playoffs only make the postseason 14 percent of the time. I spot-checked this over the last eight full seasons, and while the percentage was slightly higher at 20 percent, the general idea holds true.
Historically, I’ve always used Thanksgiving as a decent checkpoint for playoff projections. Roughly 75 percent of teams in playoff position at that time end up making it. For this analysis, I looked at the last eight full seasons (2015–2024), skipping the two pandemic-shortened ones (2019–20 and 2020–21).
Instead of focusing on teams that missed, I analyzed how clubs in playoff position fared using Halloween, not Thanksgiving, as the checkpoint. To go a layer deeper, I broke down standings by position—first, second, or third in the division, and the first or second wild card slots.
Thanksgiving
The tricky thing about Thanksgiving is its variability. It falls on the fourth Thursday of November, meaning it can land anywhere between Nov. 22 and Nov. 28. That variability means teams have played anywhere from 18 to 25 games by then, though most have around 20.
Across the eight seasons studied, 76.6 percent of teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving made the postseason. Here’s how that breaks down by standings position:
The first chart may be a bit dense at first glance. It shows, from left to right, how often teams in each divisional or wild card position at Thanksgiving went on to make the playoffs. The final bar in each cluster represents the overall average for that season.
To make it easier to digest, the second chart below simplifies things by showing the average playoff rates for each standings position across all eight seasons:
As expected, standings position matters. Teams in the top two division spots make the playoffs far more often than those in third or wild card positions. In fact, teams in the top two averaged an 89.1 percent playoff rate, 25 percent higher than teams in third or wild card slots. Wild card and third-place teams landed in the 60th percentile, giving them better than even odds to make the postseason.
Halloween
By Halloween, most teams have played between eight and 13 games, with only minor differences in games played. I wanted to see if this much earlier checkpoint could still serve as a gauge for postseason likelihood. My assumption was that it would be too early to draw meaningful conclusion—but the data suggests otherwise.
Teams sitting first, second, or third in their division on Halloween made the playoffs more often than not. Overall, the success rate dropped by just over 10 percent to 66.4 percent, compared with Thanksgiving’s 76.6 percent.
However, the wild card positions were far less stable. Teams in those spots made the postseason less than half the time. What surprised me most was that first- and second-place teams at Halloween made the playoffs 82.8 percent of the time—an impressive number given that only about 10 games have been played.
The takeaway: division leaders at Halloween already have a strong foothold, while wild card teams face much shakier odds. Thanksgiving remains a more reliable indicator, especially for teams hovering around the bubble.
Where the Kraken sit
Seattle wrapped up their October games on Oct. 28, sitting second in the Pacific Division. As other teams played later in the month, Seattle slipped into the final wild card spot. A late rally by Los Angeles on Oct. 30, sparked by two goals from Corey Perry with the goalie pulled, earned the Kings a point and moved the Kraken down in the standings.
On Halloween night, the Anaheim Ducks beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2, bumping Seattle down another spot into the second wild card position.
Still, it’s a solid place to be, especially since the Kraken hold games in hand. Anaheim and Seattle have played only 10 games so far, while the rest of the Western Conference has played 11 or 12. When Seattle made the playoffs in its second season, it also held the second wild card spot on Halloween.
The Kraken have experience fighting from this position and will need to stay sharp heading into November, when the strength of their schedule softens a bit.
Based on Halloween data, the Kraken have a 66.4 percent chance to hang on to a playoff spot. They’ll look to improve those odds by Thanksgiving as they continue their homestand against the New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, and San Jose Sharks.
As requested in the comments adding a picture of Eddie and George.
Eddie and George
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
All aboard the Lane Train! Head coach Lane Lambert has navigated the Seattle Kraken to their best start in franchise history, going 5-2-3 for 13 points in 10 games, and sitting second in the Pacific Division. The Kraken’s previous best start was last season when they finished October with 11 points in 11 games. This season, they bested that mark in just 10 games. Seattle wrapped up its October schedule on the 28th, so all statistics are as of that date.
Injuries
What’s more impressive about this start is the Kraken have continued to collect points despite a slew of injuries. In total, Kraken starters have missed 36 man-games.
Ryker Evans – 10
Kaapo Kakko – 10
Freddy Gaudreau – 6
Jared McCann – 5
Brandon Montour (personal) – 4
Mason Marchment – 1
Fighting through the injuries and missed games, the Kraken have maintained their defensive structure, making them a tough team to play against. As of Oct. 28, the Kraken ranked ninth in the NHL in goals-against average at 2.80.
The injuries also created opportunity, allowing Berkly Catton to make his NHL debut. He’s maintained a spot on the top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle. Catton has yet to score his first goal but has three assists through five games and looks like he belongs in the NHL.
October update
The Kraken had a target of 11 points for October and exceeded it, earning points in eight of 10 games for a total of 13. If you remember from the October edition of Strive for 95, the Kraken had five games against Playoff Bound teams, four against Bubble teams, and one against a Tanker team. Last season, the Kraken struggled against the Playoff Bound tier with a .234 points percentage. This season, they thrived in that tier, earning eight of 10 possible points (.800 points percentage).
October target versus actual
Against the Bubble tier, they hit their target with five points. Two of those came against a sneaky-good Montreal team, with both matchups going to overtime. The lone Tanker-tier game, a matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers, was their worst performance of the month, which included Joey Daccord getting pulled. However, the Flyers appear to be improved this season, holding a 5-1 home record and sitting in the final wild card spot in the East.
The Kraken have played a sound defensive game, focusing on limiting high- and medium-danger chances while allowing opponents to take low-danger shots. The coaching staff has done an excellent job getting the team to buy into this structure, and the results speak for themselves. One nitpick: even at 5-2-3, the Kraken have scored just 28 goals and have an even goal differential. Getting the offense rolling would elevate this team further, but their identity is clearly rooted in strong defensive play and structure.
data from moneypuck.com
Updated tiers
Through the first month of the season, there are plenty of new names in playoff position. It’s early, so expect these tiers to shift as the season progresses.
Bolded teams are teams the Kraken play in November. ‘x2’ indicates the Kraken face that team twice. Up and down arrows show teams that moved between tiers.
Notes on tier movement
Atlantic Division: Montreal and Detroit have played strong hockey to start, but moving them into the Playoff Bound tier feels premature. November will be telling for both clubs. Florida and Toronto are hovering around .500, so they stay put for now but remain on watch.
Metropolitan Division: Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are both in playoff position with winning records, so they move out of the Tanker tier for now.
Central Division: Utah looks legit, scoring in bunches and remaining undefeated at home. That success forced a bit of a reshuffle, as having four teams from one division in the Playoff Bound tier this early felt excessive. Dallas slides down to the Bubble tier. Meanwhile, Minnesota and St. Louis have struggled out of the gate and move to the Tanker tier—not because they’ve given up, but because they’ve yet to find their rhythm.
Pacific Division: Calgary has struggled to find the back of the net and ranks last in the league in goals per game at 2.09, prompting their drop in tier.
November breakdown
November features 14 games — eight at home and six on the road — including two sets of back-to-backs. The road games are split between two trips, the first being a two-game swing and the second a four-game swing. The Kraken are two points above a 95-point pace, but there’s no reason to ease off the gas. The monthly target is 17 points.
Playoff Bound tier
The Kraken face just one team in this tier in November—the Winnipeg Jets at home. In their first meeting this season, Seattle shut Winnipeg out 3-0 as Daccord outdueled three-time Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck. Target: one point.
Bubble tier
Seattle will play 10 games against eight teams in this category, including two each versus Dallas and Chicago. They’ll also face Detroit, Pittsburgh, Columbus, the Islanders, Rangers, and Edmonton. Target: 11 points.
Tanker tier
There will be one game versus St. Louis and two against San Jose. The Blues and Sharks currently rank 31st and 32nd in goals against per game, at 4.4 and 4.6 respectively. Target: five points.
Looking ahead
It’s still early, and teams are feeling each other out. As the season progresses, the tiers will become clearer. The Kraken have started strong and put themselves in a good position to succeed. They can’t look too far ahead, but with only one game against a Playoff Bound team in November, there’s an opportunity to bank more points.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
