Most of my podcast listening time comes while walking my two dogs, George and Eddie. A few weeks ago, when the Kraken were 2-0, I found myself listening to a 32 Thoughts episode from Oct. 13 about not overreacting to two games. I don’t remember much from the podcast, but Elliotte Friedman made a statement that made me look at George and Eddie with a quizzical look and think, “Is that true?”
Friedman said that by Nov. 1, teams that are four or more points out of the playoffs only make the postseason 14 percent of the time. I spot-checked this over the last eight full seasons, and while the percentage was slightly higher at 20 percent, the general idea holds true.
Historically, I’ve always used Thanksgiving as a decent checkpoint for playoff projections. Roughly 75 percent of teams in playoff position at that time end up making it. For this analysis, I looked at the last eight full seasons (2015–2024), skipping the two pandemic-shortened ones (2019–20 and 2020–21).
Instead of focusing on teams that missed, I analyzed how clubs in playoff position fared using Halloween, not Thanksgiving, as the checkpoint. To go a layer deeper, I broke down standings by position—first, second, or third in the division, and the first or second wild card slots.
Thanksgiving
The tricky thing about Thanksgiving is its variability. It falls on the fourth Thursday of November, meaning it can land anywhere between Nov. 22 and Nov. 28. That variability means teams have played anywhere from 18 to 25 games by then, though most have around 20.
Across the eight seasons studied, 76.6 percent of teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving made the postseason. Here’s how that breaks down by standings position:
The first chart may be a bit dense at first glance. It shows, from left to right, how often teams in each divisional or wild card position at Thanksgiving went on to make the playoffs. The final bar in each cluster represents the overall average for that season.
To make it easier to digest, the second chart below simplifies things by showing the average playoff rates for each standings position across all eight seasons:
As expected, standings position matters. Teams in the top two division spots make the playoffs far more often than those in third or wild card positions. In fact, teams in the top two averaged an 89.1 percent playoff rate, 25 percent higher than teams in third or wild card slots. Wild card and third-place teams landed in the 60th percentile, giving them better than even odds to make the postseason.
Halloween
By Halloween, most teams have played between eight and 13 games, with only minor differences in games played. I wanted to see if this much earlier checkpoint could still serve as a gauge for postseason likelihood. My assumption was that it would be too early to draw meaningful conclusion—but the data suggests otherwise.
Teams sitting first, second, or third in their division on Halloween made the playoffs more often than not. Overall, the success rate dropped by just over 10 percent to 66.4 percent, compared with Thanksgiving’s 76.6 percent.
However, the wild card positions were far less stable. Teams in those spots made the postseason less than half the time. What surprised me most was that first- and second-place teams at Halloween made the playoffs 82.8 percent of the time—an impressive number given that only about 10 games have been played.
The takeaway: division leaders at Halloween already have a strong foothold, while wild card teams face much shakier odds. Thanksgiving remains a more reliable indicator, especially for teams hovering around the bubble.
Where the Kraken sit
Seattle wrapped up their October games on Oct. 28, sitting second in the Pacific Division. As other teams played later in the month, Seattle slipped into the final wild card spot. A late rally by Los Angeles on Oct. 30, sparked by two goals from Corey Perry with the goalie pulled, earned the Kings a point and moved the Kraken down in the standings.
On Halloween night, the Anaheim Ducks beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2, bumping Seattle down another spot into the second wild card position.
Still, it’s a solid place to be, especially since the Kraken hold games in hand. Anaheim and Seattle have played only 10 games so far, while the rest of the Western Conference has played 11 or 12. When Seattle made the playoffs in its second season, it also held the second wild card spot on Halloween.
The Kraken have experience fighting from this position and will need to stay sharp heading into November, when the strength of their schedule softens a bit.
Based on Halloween data, the Kraken have a 66.4 percent chance to hang on to a playoff spot. They’ll look to improve those odds by Thanksgiving as they continue their homestand against the New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, and San Jose Sharks.
As requested in the comments adding a picture of Eddie and George.
Eddie and George
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
All aboard the Lane Train! Head coach Lane Lambert has navigated the Seattle Kraken to their best start in franchise history, going 5-2-3 for 13 points in 10 games, and sitting second in the Pacific Division. The Kraken’s previous best start was last season when they finished October with 11 points in 11 games. This season, they bested that mark in just 10 games. Seattle wrapped up its October schedule on the 28th, so all statistics are as of that date.
Injuries
What’s more impressive about this start is the Kraken have continued to collect points despite a slew of injuries. In total, Kraken starters have missed 36 man-games.
Ryker Evans – 10
Kaapo Kakko – 10
Freddy Gaudreau – 6
Jared McCann – 5
Brandon Montour (personal) – 4
Mason Marchment – 1
Fighting through the injuries and missed games, the Kraken have maintained their defensive structure, making them a tough team to play against. As of Oct. 28, the Kraken ranked ninth in the NHL in goals-against average at 2.80.
The injuries also created opportunity, allowing Berkly Catton to make his NHL debut. He’s maintained a spot on the top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle. Catton has yet to score his first goal but has three assists through five games and looks like he belongs in the NHL.
October update
The Kraken had a target of 11 points for October and exceeded it, earning points in eight of 10 games for a total of 13. If you remember from the October edition of Strive for 95, the Kraken had five games against Playoff Bound teams, four against Bubble teams, and one against a Tanker team. Last season, the Kraken struggled against the Playoff Bound tier with a .234 points percentage. This season, they thrived in that tier, earning eight of 10 possible points (.800 points percentage).
October target versus actual
Against the Bubble tier, they hit their target with five points. Two of those came against a sneaky-good Montreal team, with both matchups going to overtime. The lone Tanker-tier game, a matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers, was their worst performance of the month, which included Joey Daccord getting pulled. However, the Flyers appear to be improved this season, holding a 5-1 home record and sitting in the final wild card spot in the East.
The Kraken have played a sound defensive game, focusing on limiting high- and medium-danger chances while allowing opponents to take low-danger shots. The coaching staff has done an excellent job getting the team to buy into this structure, and the results speak for themselves. One nitpick: even at 5-2-3, the Kraken have scored just 28 goals and have an even goal differential. Getting the offense rolling would elevate this team further, but their identity is clearly rooted in strong defensive play and structure.
data from moneypuck.com
Updated tiers
Through the first month of the season, there are plenty of new names in playoff position. It’s early, so expect these tiers to shift as the season progresses.
Bolded teams are teams the Kraken play in November. ‘x2’ indicates the Kraken face that team twice. Up and down arrows show teams that moved between tiers.
Notes on tier movement
Atlantic Division: Montreal and Detroit have played strong hockey to start, but moving them into the Playoff Bound tier feels premature. November will be telling for both clubs. Florida and Toronto are hovering around .500, so they stay put for now but remain on watch.
Metropolitan Division: Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are both in playoff position with winning records, so they move out of the Tanker tier for now.
Central Division: Utah looks legit, scoring in bunches and remaining undefeated at home. That success forced a bit of a reshuffle, as having four teams from one division in the Playoff Bound tier this early felt excessive. Dallas slides down to the Bubble tier. Meanwhile, Minnesota and St. Louis have struggled out of the gate and move to the Tanker tier—not because they’ve given up, but because they’ve yet to find their rhythm.
Pacific Division: Calgary has struggled to find the back of the net and ranks last in the league in goals per game at 2.09, prompting their drop in tier.
November breakdown
November features 14 games — eight at home and six on the road — including two sets of back-to-backs. The road games are split between two trips, the first being a two-game swing and the second a four-game swing. The Kraken are two points above a 95-point pace, but there’s no reason to ease off the gas. The monthly target is 17 points.
Playoff Bound tier
The Kraken face just one team in this tier in November—the Winnipeg Jets at home. In their first meeting this season, Seattle shut Winnipeg out 3-0 as Daccord outdueled three-time Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck. Target: one point.
Bubble tier
Seattle will play 10 games against eight teams in this category, including two each versus Dallas and Chicago. They’ll also face Detroit, Pittsburgh, Columbus, the Islanders, Rangers, and Edmonton. Target: 11 points.
Tanker tier
There will be one game versus St. Louis and two against San Jose. The Blues and Sharks currently rank 31st and 32nd in goals against per game, at 4.4 and 4.6 respectively. Target: five points.
Looking ahead
It’s still early, and teams are feeling each other out. As the season progresses, the tiers will become clearer. The Kraken have started strong and put themselves in a good position to succeed. They can’t look too far ahead, but with only one game against a Playoff Bound team in November, there’s an opportunity to bank more points.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
The Seattle Kraken wrapped up their preseason schedule with a 4-2 victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday. Winning and losing doesn’t matter much in preseason, but it’s still nice to finish with a winning record at 3-2-1. This game also marked the end of training camp. The team will have the next two days off for team-building activities before returning to practice Saturday in preparation for the regular-season opener at home against the Anaheim Ducks on Oct. 9.
Here are Three Takeaways from a 4-2 Kraken win over the Oilers.
Takeaway #1: Special teams
The Kraken special teams got plenty of work in this one. In the first period alone, there were eight penalties, four for each team. The period ended 3-1 in Seattle’s favor, and all three Kraken goals came on special teams. Josh Mahura and Eeli Tolvanen scored power-play goals with blasts from the point, while Ryan Winterton added a shorthanded tally after intercepting a poor pass by Edmonton goalie Calvin Pickard below the goal line and wrapping it into an open net. Tolvanen’s goal came during a 5-on-3. Jaden Schwartz provided the screen on both of the power-play goals by Mahura and Tolvanen.
Seattle’s penalty kill technically gave up just one power-play goal on five Edmonton attempts, including some 5-on-3 time. However, the Oilers’ second goal came seven seconds after a penalty expired, showing there’s still work to do in cleaning up those situations. Last season, Seattle occasionally allowed goals just after a kill or power play, an area that could still use improvement.
Berkly Catton had a rough night, spending time in the box for three stick penalties. Coach Lane Lambert said, “He’s not the only one who took stick penalties and hooking and this and that. We just have to clean that up overall, as a group.”
Takeaway #2: Slow start in the second
Seattle jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first period and almost looked like they expected Edmonton to fold. After the Oilers scored late in the first and started the second on the power play, momentum shifted. The Kraken struggled to clear the zone, and Edmonton cut the deficit to one. Joey Daccord held strong as Seattle adopted a bend-don’t-break approach for about 10 minutes before regaining some offensive push.
On one hand, it was good to see Seattle weather the storm, but this is not a formula for consistent success. Coach Lambert noticed the lack of spark and shuffled the right wingers, moving Tolvanen, Winterton, and Jani Nyman around. The change worked, and Seattle began generating chances again, finishing the period ahead 3-2.
Nyman hops up with Schwartz and Wright and nearly cashes in, but Pickard outwaits him. #SeaKraken still holding a 3-2 lead. pic.twitter.com/hqiJsFbhvt
For a guy battling for one of the final roster spots, Winterton definitely left a solid final impression in the minds of the front office and coaches on Wednesday. The 22-year-old winger had two goals, including a shorthanded tally, despite getting just 10:07 of ice time. His second came early in the third to restore a two-goal cushion. Off a slick feed from Freddy Gaudreau, Winterton corralled the pass on his backhand, shifted to his forehand, and lifted it over Pickard’s glove. These were the first goals of the preseason for the 22-year-old forward.
Winterton started the night with Schwartz and Shane Wright, but with so many early penalties, he rarely played with them. He later settled in alongside Tye Kartye and Gaudreau, and the trio clicked well. Asked if he got what he wanted from shuffling the right wings, Lambert replied, “I did out of Winterton.”
Winterton earned first-star honors and yeeted the fish after the game.
Looking ahead to the regular season
There are still roster decisions to come, but preseason is in the books. Now, the focus shifts to the regular season and hopefully getting a couple key players back from injury in time for the meaningful games. Despite dealing with injuries, Seattle finished with a winning record (3-2-1), and all three goaltenders turned in solid performances. Adding Matt Murray provides extra competition in the crease, which should help push everyone.
Nyman didn’t score Thursday but saw time with Wright and Schwartz, where he looked comfortable and got some scoring chances. He consistently gets into scoring positions, but he seems to need a playmaker to set him up.
How do you think this preseason went for the Kraken? Are you more or less optimistic about the upcoming season? Comment below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
With the preseason underway and the regular season around the corner, it’s time to highlight a handful of Seattle Kraken players who can improve on last year’s results. I’m calling them “rebound candidates,” but that doesn’t mean they had bad seasons in 2024-25. It means they’ve already shown they can play at a higher level than what they showed last season. After finishing with 76 standings points last year, the Kraken will need every ounce of production if they hope to return to the playoffs.
Here are the players I’ll be watching for rebound seasons:
Jared McCann
Since arriving in Seattle via the Expansion Draft from Pittsburgh by way of Toronto (he never actually played a game for the Maple Leafs before they left him exposed), McCann has thrived in an expanded role. His ice time has climbed from 16 to 17 minutes per game, and he leads the franchise in both goals (128) and points (243). He even led the Kraken in points last season with 61 (22-39=61).
So how does he qualify as a rebound candidate? Goal scoring. In his first three Kraken seasons, McCann topped the team in goals each year and shot 15.4 percent. Last season, that number dipped 4.5 percentage points to 10.9 percent, and he finished with 22 goals. He also scored just four power-play goals, his lowest total since joining Seattle.
Regression to the mean suggests his shooting percentage should creep back toward his Kraken average of 14.3 percent. His career high is 40 goals (2022-23), and while that may be ambitious, returning to the 30-goal mark feels realistic. Last season, McCann played mostly with Chandler Stephenson, who was second on the team with 51 points but often matched against top opposing lines.
McCann has shown he can produce from any spot in the lineup, and I expect him to bury more chances this year. It should be noted that McCann is currently day-to-day and shared earlier this week with media that he didn’t skate much this summer while recovering from a procedure that he underwent after last season.
Rebound target: 30 goals and 70 points
Matty Beniers
After his 57-point rookie season and Calder Trophy win, the Kraken have been waiting for Beniers to recapture that magic. He has since posted 37 and 43 points while leading the forward group in even-strength ice time (15:44 minutes per game). But among NHL forwards who averaged that much even-strength time and played a full season (70+ games), he ranked last in the NHL in points in each of the last two seasons.
There’s still reason for optimism. He returned to the 20-goal plateau in 2024-25, showed chemistry with Kaapo Kakko, and boosted his shooting percentage to 13.6 percent (up from 11.3 in 2023-24). He’s proven he has the offensive talent, as his rookie numbers came with less ice time. With new head coach Lane Lambert emphasizing structure at both ends, Beniers should benefit.
Rebound target: 60 points. It’s a stretch, but it’s within reach if he finds his stride early.
Vince Dunn
Dunn broke out for 64 points in 2022-23 but has since been slowed by injuries, missing 20-plus games each of the past two seasons. During his career-best season, he averaged 0.79 points per game, 12th best among defensemen that season (2022-23). He nearly matched that rate the next year (0.78 PPG) but played just 59 games. Last season he dropped to 0.63 PPG and again missed almost a quarter of the year (20 games).
Keeping Dunn healthy is a priority. When in the lineup, the puck-moving defenseman drives offense and brings an edge that energizes teammates and fans. The physical side makes him popular but also adds injury risk. Balancing those elements will be critical for Seattle.
Rebound target: 60 points and play 82 games
Backup goaltending
Philipp Grubauer officially slid into a backup role in 2024-25, and the results were rough: an .875 save percentage and an 8-17-1 record. After four straight years below .900, hope is scarce. Still, he showed a late spark. Following a stint with Coachella Valley, he returned to Seattle with a 3-2-0 record and a .915 save percentage. The sample was small but promising, and he seems to really enjoy working with goalie coach Colin Zulianello, who was promoted from the Firebirds to the Kraken this summer, replacing Steve Briere.
The Kraken also added two-time Stanley Cup winner Matt Murray. Murray has struggled in recent NHL stints but dominated the AHL last season with a .934 save percentage. Neither option is a sure bet, but both have NHL experience. And frankly, can it get worse than an .875 save percentage?
Whoever wins the backup job behind Joey Daccord, Seattle will be counting on more stability in net. General manager Jason Botterill has even suggested the team may carry three goalies.
Both Grubauer and Murray would require waivers to be sent to the AHL. Murray, on a one-year deal at $1 million, could be a low-risk waiver claim for another team. Grubauer’s $5.9 million cap hit, on the other hand, is unlikely to be claimed if Seattle wanted to send him down at some point.
Rebound target: A .500 record when the backup is in net
Final thoughts
The Kraken don’t need all four of these rebound stories to hit in order to take a step forward. But if McCann’s shot rebounds, Beniers breaks through, Dunn stays healthy, and the backup goalie spot stabilizes, Seattle’s chances of returning to the playoffs increase dramatically. Even two or three of these improvements could be the difference between another disappointing season and meaningful games in April.
Comment below on which Kraken player you think could be a rebound candidates?
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Kraken preseason is officially underway. As I have done in previous preseasons, I like to project Seattle’s playoff chances by forecasting the team’s goal scoring. You can review my last three forecasts here: 2022–23, 2023–24, and 2024–25.
This forecast looks at adjusted goals for each player on the projected Kraken roster. The “adjusted goals” metric is defined as goals scored minus empty-net goals. Based on prior analysis, teams with an adjusted goal differential of plus-one to plus-five make the playoffs more than 50 percent of the time. Adjusted goals against is the other half of that equation, but for this article, we’re only focusing on adjusted goals for.
Looking back at the 2024–25 forecast
Last season, the Kraken finished with 230 adjusted goals, an increase of 25 compared to 2023–24. My forecast missed the mark by 11.9 goals. Here’s a player-by-player breakdown:
Overall, the forecast did fine but not great. A few players came in well below expectations, Andre Burakovsky and Jared McCann among them, but Jaden Schwartz more than offset those misses, finishing 10.9 goals above what I had projected for him. That’s how forecasting tends to work: some players overshoot, others undershoot.
There were also factors that would have been tough to build into the model. Jordan Eberle’s injury was significant. Yanni Gourde also missed time with injury, and even when healthy, his production lagged. Trades always shake things up, too. While Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand were dealt at the deadline, their lost production was roughly balanced by Kaapo Kakko, who arrived in an earlier trade.
Roster unknowns for 2025–26
Unlike recent offseasons, this year’s roster still has a few question marks. Several rookies are making strong pushes out of camp, and late adjustments could happen depending on who earns spots. That makes projecting games played a little trickier, so I’ve leaned conservative with totals.
Another wrinkle: a lot of Kraken players are entering the final year of their contracts. If Seattle falls out of playoff contention by the deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see veterans moved to contenders for future assets. That uncertainty isn’t baked into this forecast, but it’s definitely a storyline to monitor.
Departures and Arrivals for 2025–26
From a pure goal-scoring standpoint, the only notable departure from last season is Bjorkstrand, who was traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline.
The Kraken made two trades this offseason that should help replace some of the goal scoring lost from last year’s roster. First, they acquired Mason Marchment from the cap-strapped Dallas Stars in mid-June. Marchment brings size, physicality, and a proven middle-six scoring touch, with three straight seasons of double-digit goals. Just a week later, the Kraken added Freddy Gaudreau from the Minnesota Wild. Gaudreau isn’t as flashy offensively, but he’s versatile, defensively reliable, and can chip in 10–15 goals while playing anywhere in the lineup (he had 18 last season and 19 in 2022-23). Together, the pair should provide depth scoring and stability that will help offset the loss of Oliver Bjorkstrand.
Based on last year’s production, the Kraken lost 41 goals but brought in 35 — and that’s in 112 fewer games played. That gap is where potential rookies like Berkly Catton, Jani Nyman, and a handful of other candidates could step in and contribute.
Scoring forecast approach
As in past seasons, I’m using each player’s last three years of games played and adjusted goals to project for 2025–26. Games played is the trickiest part to forecast — I leaned on each player’s historical average, but I’ll make the occasional subjective adjustment if I think the production rate doesn’t quite line up.
Yes, some guys have averaged 75-plus games per season, but as we saw with Eberle and Gourde last year, injuries are inevitable. Since it’s nearly impossible to predict who will go down, I also take a conservative approach to projecting games played for the upcoming season.
Forwards forecast
The most difficult part of this forecast is figuring out games played and goals for the rookies. Take Jani Nyman, for example — he scored three goals in 12 games with the Kraken during his late-season call-up and added 28 goals in 58 games for Coachella Valley. He’s a natural goal scorer, so 10 goals in 50 NHL games feels conservative… but that’s probably the right cautious estimate for now, because it’s impossible to say if he’ll be a full-time NHLer.
Berkly Catton is even tougher to predict. He’s either going to play fewer than nine games (because he burns the first year of his entry-level contract if the Kraken keep him for longer than that) or more than 50 — not much in between. I’ve been leaning toward the higher end, but without full certainty, I split the difference and set his forecast at 40 games.
Outside of the rookies, there are a couple of eyebrow-raisers in the model. Shane Wright’s 18.9-goal projection feels a little light, while Jared McCann’s looks a bit heavy. But that’s the nature of an aggregate forecast: some players run hot, some cold, and ideally it all balances out.
Defensemen forecast
Forecasting the defensemen is a bit more straightforward. The top six are pretty well set heading into the season, with Josh Mahura likely sliding into the seventh spot if everyone stays healthy. The one new face, Ryan Lindgren, brings plenty of defensive reliability but isn’t exactly known for his goal scoring.
One player who could push the totals higher is Ryker Evans. He’s shown steady progress the last couple of years, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he chipped in a bit more offense as his role continues to grow.
Putting it together
When you combine the forwards and defensemen, the forecast lands at 246.3 adjusted goals for the 2025–26 season. That’s a 16-goal bump over last year, a total that would’ve ranked ninth in the NHL in 2024–25. It feels a little optimistic, but we’ll stick with it for now.
Other considerations
Coaching/system tweaks – The biggest change this offseason came behind the bench with the hiring of Lane Lambert. His teams have been known for playing structured, defensively sound hockey. That could tighten things up in Seattle’s end, but Lambert has also emphasized that creating turnovers in the defensive zone can fuel offense. How that balance plays out will be worth tracking. Lambert mentioned he thought Nyman’s goal in Seattle’s 5-3 preseason win over Vancouver was an excellent example of this. “The thing that excited me about that goal was that it started in the D-zone,” Lambert said. “We killed the play, and then it ended up in the back of their net. So from my perspective, that’s what we’re talking about when we’re talking about defense translating into offense.”
Power play – Seattle finished 23rd in the league on the power play last year, leaving plenty of room for improvement. With a new staff and some fresh personnel looks, there’s cautious optimism that the power play could finally take a step forward.
Injuries – The ultimate wild card. If the Kraken’s top six can stay mostly healthy, it would go a long way toward hitting (or even exceeding) this forecast.
Will Seattle improve offensively?
My projection for the Kraken’s 2025–26 season comes in at 246.3 adjusted goals, a 16-goal bump from last year. That total would have ranked ninth in the NHL a season ago. Still, the big questions remain: can the young players fighting for roster spots make an impact right away, and how much will Lambert’s system influence scoring, for better or worse?
For now, Kraken fans should keep expectations measured but optimistic. There’s clear upside here, but also plenty of volatility depending on health, development, and where the team sits at the trade deadline. As the season progresses, I’ll layer in adjusted-goals-against numbers to give a full playoff outlook and track how close (or far) this projection ends up.
What do you think, are my numbers too high, too low, or just right? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.
It happens every offseason—restricted free agents file for arbitration, and fanbases panic. In the case of the Seattle Kraken, forward Kaapo Kakko has filed for arbitration, becoming the fifth player in franchise history to do so. However, no Kraken player has ever made it to an actual arbitration hearing. Each has instead found common ground and signed a contract beforehand.
So, what does the arbitration process entail, and what does this mean for Kakko and the Kraken?
Requirements for arbitration
Arbitration is a mechanism that allows a neutral third party to determine a fair contract when the team and player can’t agree. Each side presents their case—each limited to 90 minutes—and within 48 hours, the arbitrator issues a binding ruling on the player’s salary.
The result is a one- or two-year deal at a salary determined by the arbitrator. The team, if it did not file, gets to choose the term. The exception is if the player is one year away from unrestricted free agency; in that case, only a one-year deal can be awarded. Kakko is one year away from being a UFA, so if his negotiation gets all the way to a hearing, the arbitrator will award a one-year deal.
The ruling is final, unless the award exceeds $4.85 million for the 2025 season. If it does, the team can walk away, making the player an unrestricted free agent. This threshold adjusts annually.
Who is eligible?
A player’s eligibility for arbitration depends on his age upon signing his entry-level deal and how many professional seasons he has accrued. For players who signed at age 18 or 19, a professional season is counted if he plays 10 or more NHL games. At age 20 and older, it’s 10 or more games in any pro league (NHL, AHL, ECHL, or top overseas leagues).
Here’s the breakdown:
Age 18-20 signed contract
4 professional years
Age 21 signed contract
3 professional years
Age 22-23 signed contract
2 professional years
Age 24+ signed contract
1 professional year
Who can file and when?
Both players and teams can file for arbitration, though it’s far more common for players to do so. Players must file by July 5 at 5 p.m. ET.
Teams have two windows to file:
June 15 through 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final.
July 5 at 5 p.m. through July 6 at 5 p.m., if the player did not file.
For a team to file, the player’s previous base salary (not average annual value) must exceed $2.43 million (per PuckPedia, as of 2025). Teams may use this route if they wish to avoid issuing a qualifying offer at the player’s prior salary. Through arbitration, a salary reduction is possible, with the maximum decrease capped at 15 percent. It also blocks the player from signing an offer sheet. The Buffalo Sabres just used this strategy with Bowen Byram.
Once a filing is made, a hearing date is scheduled between July 20 and August 4. Contract negotiations can continue right up to the hearing, but once it begins, both sides must abide by the arbitrator’s ruling.
Most never reach a hearing
Despite the headlines, arbitration hearings are rare. Since Seattle entered the league in 2021-22, 60 players have filed for arbitration:
2022: 23 filed, 1 hearing
2023: 23 filed, 3 hearings
2024: 14 filed, 1 hearing
That’s just five hearings out of 60 filings. The rest were resolved with signed contracts ahead of time. This season, 11 players have filed for arbitration.
Kaapo Kakko celebrates a goal with his Kraken teammates. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Kakko’s unique situation
Kaapo Kakko’s case is more complex than past Kraken arbitration filings. His negotiation comes at a unique intersection of three key factors:
NHL salary cap jump
The cap is set to rise from $88 million to $95.5 million next season, then to $104 million in 2026-27, and again to $113.5 million in 2027. This makes short-term deals more appealing to players who want to cash in later. But there’s risk—contracts are guaranteed, but a major injury on a one-year deal can derail a payday.
Production and potential
Kakko tallied 30 points (10 goals, 20 assists) in 49 games with Seattle after his midseason acquisition from the New York Rangers and has shown good chemistry with Matty Beniers. That projects to a 50-point season over a full schedule. At age 24, Kakko may prefer to bet on himself, aiming to boost his value heading into his prime years. Seattle, meanwhile, is likely to make an offer aligned with his current production rather than anticipated growth.
UFA status
If Kakko signs a one-year deal, he keeps his path open to unrestricted free agency. That doesn’t necessarily mean he wants to leave Seattle, but it gives him flexibility and leverage.
In March, I previewed RFA expectations for the Kraken. Kakko’s case stood out then—and even with his arbitration filing, my expectations and predictions remain unchanged.
Potential outcomes
Here are three realistic outcomes for Kakko’s contract:
Longer-term deal – Five years at $6 million AAV
Short bridge deal – One or two years at $5 million AAV
Arbitration hearing – One-year deal awarded in the $4 million to $4.5 million range
Technically, Seattle could sign Kakko for up to eight years, but that would take him through age 32. A five-year deal would expire when he’s 29, allowing him to cash in once more when he’s still in his prime and likely able to land another significant contract.
Final thoughts
Arbitration filings sound dramatic, but they’re often just a step in the negotiation dance. Most cases settle before a hearing, and both sides move on.
Still, the process can be awkward. During hearings, teams must point out a player’s flaws to justify their stance—comments that can linger long after the deal is done.
For fans, it’s easy to worry, but there’s no need to panic. This is just part of doing business in the NHL offseason. Negotiations take time—and patience is key.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
