The Musings post is usually published on Mondays, but with a big Kraken win on Sunday, we thought it might be good to let the victory content breathe a bit.
Kraken Thoughts
When I wrote the Musings last week, I was a little nervous. The boys had just lost three games in a row, and the playoff cushion was starting to shrink. My message was, “Don’t panic,” but if I am going to be honest, my hand was on the panic button.
As an act of defiance, the boys would go a perfect four-for-four on their road trip that ended with a thrilling come-from-behind overtime win against the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. Meanwhile, the Calgary Flames got just one point out of a possible six during the same time span. Now, it is Nashville who finds itself just on the outside of the playoff cut with several games in hand on Winnipeg and Edmonton. The Oilers and Jets currently sit in the Western Conference wild card spots.
What a difference a week makes.
Getting back to the Kraken games, all four were either tied or just a one-goal game entering the last minute of regulation play. Even in victory, the first two games of the road trip against St. Louis and Detroit felt a little shaky. Several defensive breakdowns kept those games closer than they should have been, but to the team’s credit, Seattle buckled down and figured out ways to win. It wasn’t until the third game of the week, against Columbus, did the Kraken look like the team we have come to expect this season.
Philipp Grubauer
Most regular readers of this column will know that I am a Philipp Grubauer supporter. I punched the numbers on my abacus and feel that all signs point to Grubi being the better goalie right now. Heading into last week, Grubi was coming off back-to-back losses to Boston and Toronto where he allowed 10 goals over those two games. They weren’t great performances by any statistical measure, but being how well the Bruins and Leafs played those nights, I am not sure Dominik Hasek at the peak of his powers would have made a difference in those games for the Kraken. It made me think that Grubi had been getting the more challenging starts this season, so I looked it up.
The data bears it out. On average, Grubi plays the better teams in the NHL and has faced just five teams under a .500 points percentage. That said, Seattle needs Grubauer to steal some games against the best teams in the league. I do not feel Sunday’s win against the Avalanche would constitute stealing one, but it was a big win against a quality opponent.
Trade deadline
It would have been nice to see the Kraken add a middle-six forward as a stop gap for Andre Burakovsky being out of the lineup and as insurance for any additional injuries down the road. The trade deadline is a time when teams overpay for players, though, and Ron Francis is more disciplined than a lot of us would be in the same position. The team still has draft picks and will have salary cap flexibility rolling into next season, so you wonder if the Kraken might be willing to pull some bigger levers this offseason.
Other Kraken musings:
Francis said Andre Burakovsky was back on the ice for the first time since his injury on Feb. 7. The team has missed him in the lineup. At the time of his injury, he was leading the Kraken in points, and although it has been better lately, his absence is most notable on the power play.
As an indicator of how teams tend to overpay during the trade deadline, the Kraken obtained Oliver Bjorkstrand for just a third- and fourth-round draft pick last summer. First-round picks were being passed around the league like candy last week for players inferior to Bjorkstrand.
Bjorkstrand’s shooting percentage is 12.5 percent since Jan. 1, compared to 5.4 percent prior to New Year’s Day. This is the Bjorkstrand we expected.
Jaden Schwartz had five points over the last three games, and his forecheck to get the puck for Brandon Tanev’s tying goal Sunday could have been the biggest play of the week.
Speaking of big plays, how about Grubauer’s save in Detroit? You never know how a goal there could have impacted the outcome of the game.
Chris Driedger is now 2-1-0 in three starts for the Coachella Valley Firebirds with a .907 save percentage. I believe we will see him get some starts for the Kraken before the end of the season.
If the Kraken finish the season with just 50 percent of the points available, they will finish the season with 97 points. The current forecasted playoff cut is right around 93 points.
Really enjoyed Alison Lukan’s article on the Kraken website on the different possession styles of Bjorkstrand, Wennberg, and Gourde who are all in the league top-10 in takeaways minus giveaways.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
The theme of the week should be getting points where you can, because this week kicks off the toughest 10-game stretch the Kraken will play the rest of the season. Anaheim, Ottawa, and Dallas have been relatively hot teams as of late and will each have their own motivations to beat the Kraken. Getting three out of six points will be fine, but if they can get more, excellent. If the Kraken can get the consistent goaltending from Grubauer (or Jones) and special teams stays hot, at least three points should be expected. The back-to-back games against Dallas should be a benchmark game to see how ready both teams are for the playoffs.
What normally would be thought of as an easy game Tuesday against Anaheim, the Ducks have won four out of their last five games with their only loss in that stretch being an overtime loss to the Washington Capitals. If there is anything the Feb. 20 San Jose game has shown us, you cannot take a night off against a lesser opponent and expect to win.
Thursday does not get any easier with the Ottawa Senators coming to town. Prior to the loss last night, the Senators won five games in a row and will be fighting for their lives to get into the playoffs.
Stick Taps / Player Performance
Philipp Grubauer (SEA) – three wins over four days with a .921 save percentage.
Kyle Jackson (NBB/SEA) – The unsigned seventh-round pick from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft has a five-game point streak for the North Bay Battalion in the OHL.
Jared McCann (SEA) – He had four goals and three assists over his last five games, including his 30th goal of the season, becoming the first Seattle Kraken to hit the 30-goal mark in a season.
Did you realize Jared McCann has scored 30 goals already this season? The former Canuck leads all skaters in shooting impact at even strength. pic.twitter.com/mbdXP4i58i
There has been a lot of talk about how well the Kraken special teams is playing right now. Here is a look at the outcomes of games depending on who wins the special teams in the game.
If you have any questions or comments on Monday Musings, please leave them below, and I will get back to you as soon as I can.
I am not ready to hit the panic button, but it is hard not to feel a bit nervous about the play of the Kraken since the All-Star break. The Kraken have just seven points out of a possible 20 available over the 10 games since the break. Their playoff cushion has dwindled down to just four points over the fifth-place Calgary Flames.
There was a stretch in these 10 games where it felt like the Kraken had righted the ship with a shootout loss to Winnipeg and impressive wins against Philadelphia and Detroit. Then along came a game against the San Jose Sharks where the Kraken lost 4-0 with Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl both out of the lineup. What was most disturbing about that loss was the lifeless energy the Kraken brought to the game, as a lack of urgency is rare to see out of this team. Had they won that Sharks game, the fan base would probably be at ease with the next two losses to two of the best teams in the league, Boston and Toronto.
The Boston Bruins game on Thursday night could have been the best game ever played in Climate Pledge Arena. The fans were amped, and the boys were buzzing. In the end, the Kraken lost a heartbreaker 6-5, allowing Boston’s sixth goal with less than two minutes remaining in the game. Matty Beniers scored just 40 seconds into the game that really set the tone for the night. It was a back-and-forth affair that the Kraken led 5-4 with four minutes remaining in the game. Every player from the ‘perfection line’ scored for the Bruins, and Brad Marchand showed us some of his old tricks. Despite the loss, I felt good about the Kraken leaving CPA that night.
Sunday’s matinee was a different story.
I had high hopes but relatively low expectations for the Kraken versus Toronto on Sunday afternoon. Several people mentioned to me over the weekend that they really needed a win versus the Maple Leafs, and to some extent, that was true, but I felt putting a ‘must win’ label on a game against one of the best teams in the league was a bit unfair. The Leafs came as advertised. At one time the Leafs were outshooting the Kraken 20-6. The Kraken eventually logged 27 shots on net, but most of the offerings were from outside the high-danger area, and the Kraken fell 5-1.
I do not think the Kraken played particularly bad, but the Leafs just looked so good. As impressive as Toronto looked offensively, I could not help but notice how they tied up Kraken players defensively around the net. I am sure there is a way to measure this, but it looked like defensively, the Leafs limited rebound opportunities and high-danger shot attempts. This was most noticeable in the third period where the Kraken managed just one high-danger chance.
Kraken thoughts
Goalie situation
In case there was any question, Philipp Grubauer should remain the starting goalie. Despite the nine goals allowed against Boston and Toronto, there was only one of the goals that he probably should have saved. It was a tall order for Grubi to get back-to-back starts against Boston and Toronto, but that is what the team will need out of a starting goalie in the playoffs. He did give them an opportunity to win the Boston game, and even if the Kraken had Andrei Vasilevskiy in net against the Leafs, they still wouldn’t have won that game.
Penalty kill
One of the bright spots for the Kraken as of late is the penalty kill. The team has not allowed a power-play goal in six games and has played consistently above league average since Jan. 1.
The penalty kill did plague the Kraken earlier in the season, so it is nice to see this turn around a bit.
Other Kraken musings:
I’m probably stating the obvious, but it feels like the Kraken really miss Andre Burakovsky. At the time of his injury, he was leading the Kraken in points and was a big part of the power play.
As of right now, the Kraken have the easiest schedule remaining out of any team in the league. Here is a look at the Western Conference playoff contenders.
Apart from the Dallas Stars, the Kraken have beaten all Western Conference playoff teams at least once this season. In the case of the Stars, the Kraken have yet to play them this season.
I don’t know if I should be happy or sad that all the Eastern Conference teams seem to be loading up in advance of the NHL Trade Deadline. That means first-round draft picks are being transferred to the Western Conference.
I’m really eager to see how Chris Driedger’s time in Coachella Valley goes. He could start as early as Monday for the Firebirds, but I would not expect him in net until Friday or Saturday. In case you missed it, Driedger was put on waivers last week, cleared, and was then assigned to Coachella Valley to continue his rehabilitation after tearing his ACL last spring.
It does not fit in the Kraken news category, but the Seattle Thunderbirds have won 10 straight games, and the Everett Silvertips clinched a playoff berth over the weekend. If you get the chance, check those teams out. It is a fun environment to watch elite-level hockey at a reasonable price.
Finally, the news of AT&T getting out of the Regional Sports Network business will not impact ROOT Sports anytime soon. But the broader RSN landscape is changing as customers move from traditional MVPDs to vMVPD, where RSNs are traditionally not available.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
The Kraken have four games over the next seven days, and although it won’t be the easiest of road trips, there are winnable games on the horizon against opponents like St. Louis, Detroit, and Columbus before Seattle ends the trip against a surging Colorado Avalanche team. I don’t like to speak in absolutes, but the Kraken need at least four of the eight points on this trip. Get a win in either St. Louis or Detroit and just avoid a letdown in Columbus. If they can get two wins in the first three games, any points in Colorado is gravy. Meanwhile, Calgary plays Boston, Toronto, and Minnesota this week. By next Monday, we could have a good idea how this playoff chase will really look.
More goaltending
As much as I still believe Grubauer is the starting goalie, that doesn’t mean coach Dave Hakstol agrees, so it will be really interesting to see how he deploys his netminders over this next week. With back-to-back games on Thursday and Friday, it is guaranteed that both Grubauer and Martin Jones will get work. Regardless of who Hakstol leans on, the Kraken need one of the two to play well through this stretch.
Trade deadline
Despite the challenges of the last ten games, I do not think the Kraken do much this trade deadline. They might move a player or get another depth piece for the playoff push, but I anticipate them being relatively quiet. I’ve seen too many teams make big trades at the deadline, only for the acquired player to underwhelm in the playoffs.
As fans, we are susceptible to survivor bias, meaning we only remember the trade deadline acquisitions of the eventual champion, not all the other transactions of teams that might not have even made it out of the first round. If the Kraken do add players at the deadline, I would suspect they might offer up a second-round draft pick or two. Based on some of the deals this week, which have involved first-round picks, it’s hard to predict what kind of value Seattle might be able to get back for that.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
TJ Oshie (WSH) – Mt. Vernon, Wash., native TJ Oshie played his 500th game as a Capital and got his first Gordie Howe hat trick.
Tye Kartye (CVF/SEA) – Kartye has goals in each of his last three games and is having a great season in his first pro year, playing for the Coachella Valley Firebirds. He might not get the call up this season, but I think this undrafted forward has a good shot at playing for the Kraken in the next year or so.
Matty Beniers (SEA) – Have you heard of this guy before? After a 10-game pointless streak, Matty has put up six points over his last five games for the Kraken.
Every time I see a goalie take a shot at the net, I giggle, and I love that he took the shot while the Bruins were only up by one versus a lower-risk two-goal lead.
Chart of the week
In researching Burakovsky’s impact to the lineup, I started to look at players’ ability to draw penalties versus take penalties. It may not be surprising, but Matty has drawn 17 penalties and only taken one.
If you have any questions or comments on Monday Musings, please leave them below, and I will get back to you as soon as I can. In the meantime, buckle-up for plenty of trade deadline talk and some really meaningful games.
It became standard over the past month for the Seattle Kraken to have three goalies on the ice for their practices, as Chris Driedger worked his way back from an offseason ACL tear. At Thursday’s morning skate, only Philipp Grubauer and Martin Jones were present, though Driedger was spotted in Seattle’s dressing room after the skate, chatting with Grubauer.
We didn’t think much of Driedger’s absence at the time, as the netminder has been on his own program and has often been seen working separately from the team. But as coach Dave Hakstol addressed media Thursday, we learned the Kraken had placed Driedger on waivers with the hope of sending him to AHL affiliate Coachella Valley.
Asked why the team had made that move, Hakstol said, “That’s the step in the process that Driedgs is at. He’s worked really hard through his rehab here. He’s done everything that he can do without getting into games.”
There are a few more layers of the onion that need peeling back, though, so we’ll try to explain the situation here as best we can.
Why no conditioning stint for Driedger?
We always knew this time would eventually come, when the team would need to decide what to do with a (mostly) healthy Driedger. It had become apparent that he was ready for game action, based on watching him take reps from his teammates at game speed and seeing him moving without hesitation or restraint.
So, a two-week AHL conditioning stint was surely on the horizon, right?
Here’s our theory on why that didn’t happen. Roster size can expand after the deadline, but the salary cap remains through the end of the regular season. Driedger has a significant cap hit at $3.5 million, and if Seattle had sent him for a conditioning stint, it would have had to keep him on the NHL roster and absorb his full cap hit during that stint.
That is, unless the Kraken had placed Driedger on long-term injured reserve, though we never saw any indication the team had taken this step. It is our belief they left him on regular injured reserve largely because bonuses due to Matty Beniers would have ended up coming off next year’s cap, had the team dipped into the LTIR pool. It’s all very confusing, but our own Curtis Isacke explained this in detail back in January.
That’s a long, circuitous way of saying Seattle likely would have waived Driedger at the end of his conditioning stint anyway, so they might as well start accruing cap savings now, assuming he clears. If Driedger gets claimed, his whole $3.5 million cap hit would come off the books, but that obviously would hurt the Kraken’s goalie depth.
With Driedger coming off a serious knee injury and having no game action so far to prove he’s ready to play in the NHL, the Kraken took the bet that no team would claim him at this point in time. If they’re wrong, and he does get snatched up by another club, then at least they get the cap savings and their three-goalie conundrum is solved.
We hope Driedger stays in the organization. We’ve been big fans of his since he joined the team, and he has been a great fit in the community. We will find out tomorrow if he will make it to Coachella Valley.
Jesper Froden in; what’s the deal with Daniel Sprong?
Hakstol confirmed Thursday that Jesper Froden will make his Kraken debut against his former NHL team, the Boston Bruins. Based on what we saw at morning skate, it appears he will take Daniel Sprong’s spot in the lineup and will play in a top-six role, supplanting Brandon Tanev back to the fourth line (at least to start the game).
“He’s earned his way to have this opportunity,” said Hakstol. “We’re not just bringing him to hope that it goes well. We’re bringing him in, and he’s part of a plan tonight. He’s got a job to do, he’s confident in his abilities and his readiness to jump in and do it, and we feel the same way.”
So that explains Hakstol’s thoughts on getting Froden—the second-leading goal scorer in the AHL this season—into the NHL lineup. But what did Sprong do to get himself into this oft-healthy-scratch territory?
When asked about his decision to scratch Sprong in Seattle’s game against the New York Islanders on Feb. 7, Hakstol said it was just about having competition and multiple guys that deserved to play. But calling guys up from the AHL and replacing Sprong in the lineup with those players tells us there’s a little more to it.
Here’s our theory on this piece, and please note, this truly is just a theory; it’s nothing we’ve heard directly from Hakstol or any other source.
We know the knock on Sprong over the years has been his two-way play, and Hakstol has been on record in the past saying he wanted Sprong to improve his play away from the puck. Hakstol has also said this season he doesn’t necessarily care if his fourth line is scoring goals, which really is where Sprong excels.
The role of the fourth line is to grind down opponents, bring energy, and be hard to play against in all three zones. Sprong isn’t the perfect fit for that type of role, but early in the season, he was scoring like crazy and racked up a career-high 15 goals. As a coach, even if you don’t expect your fourth line to go out and score, how do you take that kind of production out of the lineup?
Well, Sprong’s offensive output has slowed dramatically, and he has zero goals and two assists in his last 10 games, dating back to Jan. 19. He is no longer forcing Hakstol to put him in the lineup by scoring away any defensive concerns.
For Sprong, it still seems like the way for him to maintain trust from the coaching staff is to score, despite that not really being his role.
As for Froden, it will be interesting to see how he performs in his first NHL action this season. He has had an outstanding season in the AHL, but that doesn’t always translate to success at the highest level. If he does stick in a top-six role for the entirety of Thursday’s game, he will have a good opportunity to show his abilities at both ends of the ice.
Mama said there’d be days like Monday in San Jose, where the Kraken forgot to show up and dropped what should have been an easy two standings points to the lowly Sharks. After a day off Tuesday, the Kraken got back to it on Wednesday for a hard-working session at Kraken Community Iceplex, as they shifted their focus to two daunting home matchups against the Boston Bruins Thursday and the Toronto Maple Leafs Sunday.
Seattle’s players and coaches shared similar sentiments after Wednesday’s skate, recognizing they didn’t have their best game in San Jose, but also knowing these things happen during the course of an 82-game NHL season.
“It wasn’t our best effort for sure; we all know that,” said defenseman Justin Schultz. “You have those games in the season that— it just wasn’t there for us for whatever reason. We’ll look at things, and we got a couple of huge games coming up. So not much we can do about the San Jose game now, just look forward to tomorrow.”
With the team’s fathers and mentors along for the short trip to the Bay Area, and Seattle riding a nice little 3-0-1 wave, the vibes were high before Monday. It felt like things had gotten back on the rails after the Kraken returned from the All-Star break on a 0-3-0 skid.
But Monday’s 4-0 loss was a taste of humble pie.
“We failed to show up,” said Jordan Eberle, who—after 13 seasons in the NHL—knows the perils of taking any NHL team for granted. “We got out-competed, we got out-battled, and it doesn’t matter who you play against in this league; you’re gonna get shown up.”
Eberle also said games like that one can have a positive impact on the team when considering the bigger picture. Think about the Dec. 30 spanking Seattle endured at the hands of the Edmonton Oilers, for example, which was a turning point before the team went on its historic perfect seven-game road trip and eight-game win streak.
“Sometimes you get on your high horse, and you think you’re better than you are, and that’s exactly what we did,” said Eberle. “So, you know, it’s good to be humbled in this league. It happens many times, and the key to that is how you get back to it.”
Now, the team is focused on getting back to playing how it normally plays, as it welcomes two teams in a row to Climate Pledge Arena that boast the first- and fourth-best records in the entire NHL.
“We’ve been playing some pretty good hockey,” said Schultz. “We had a lull in the San Jose game. That happens. It’s a long year, and hopefully we do have that bump up tomorrow.”
Even with the loss, Eberle likes where the team sits, just three points out of first place in the Pacific Division. “You look at the playoff picture and where things are at, we’re in a spot where we want to be. It’s a matter of continuing to build, continuing to climb, and you’re going to have nights when things don’t go well, but we got to get back to the way we play.”
Jesper Froden recalled from Coachella Valley
With Andre Burakovsky still listed on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, Seattle called up forward Jesper Froden from AHL affiliate Coachella Valley. Froden is having an outstanding season for the Firebirds, notching a whopping 47 points in 44 games so far (25—22=47).
“It feels awesome,” said Froden about getting called up to the Kraken for the first time. “I’ve been waiting for this a couple months now, so now the opportunity is here, and I’m really excited about it.”
Froden said Coachella Valley coach Dan Bylsma delivered the news to him Tuesday that he had been recalled and told him, “Go back home, pack your stuff, and take the next flight up.”
The 28-year-old Swede has seven career NHL games under his belt, all last season with—ironically—the Boston Bruins, Seattle’s opponent on Thursday. In those seven games, he scored one goal and one assist.
“He’s earned his way to an opportunity here,” said coach Dave Hakstol. “I think he’s second in [goal] scoring in the [AHL], one [goal] behind the leader. More importantly, he’s been really competitive and consistent in his role down there.”
Hakstol said for Froden to have his AHL success translate to the NHL level, he’ll need to just be confident and work hard. “He’s not a young guy,” said Hakstol. “He’s been through this a little bit. He’s done the work where he’s at, and he’s just got to come up and be who he is and be ready to compete extremely hard and do it with a real air of confidence.”
Froden calls himself a two-way player whose strengths are his shot and skating ability.
Where or if he will slot into the lineup remains to be seen, but we would assume if he were to play Thursday, it would be on the fourth line. Seattle’s usual fourth line of Ryan Donato, Morgan Geekie, and Daniel Sprong was intact Wednesday, though, while Froden appeared to be a placeholder for Jaden Schwartz, who was not on the ice (a common occurrence this season for Schwartz). So, that tells us Froden may not go in Thursday, but that can always change on game day.
Kraken announce partnership with Muckleshoot Indian Tribe
Wednesday was also a day of celebration at Kraken Community Iceplex, as the Kraken organization and Climate Pledge Arena announced a unique partnership with the Muckleshoot Indian Tribe.
“The Muckleshoot Indian Tribe is proud to begin this first-of-its-kind partnership with the Kraken, who worked with us from day one to acknowledge that Climate Pledge Arena is located on our ancestral homeland and to honor our enduring place in the cultural fabric of this region,” said Muckleshoot Tribal Chairman Jaison Elkins via press release.
The team welcomed members of the Muckleshoot Tribe and local elected officials onto the ice Wednesday, as they held a presentation to commemorate the new partnership.
With this union, the Muckleshoot Tribe will be the first jersey patch partner in franchise history, beginning in 2023-24. Additionally, more artwork will be added to Climate Pledge Arena that celebrates indigenous heritage, and the team will help build a community multi-sport court on the Muckleshoot Reservation.
The Kraken will begin wearing Muckleshoot Indian Tribe jersey patches in 2023-24. (Photo/Seattle Kraken)
“This joyful day brings with it a sense of hope that our young people will see themselves represented by the team in the heart of Seattle and around the country with our Tribe’s logo on the front of every Kraken jersey,” said Elkins.
The Kraken have gone out of their way to represent themselves locally and beyond as an inclusive organization that pushes the boundaries of traditional hockey culture. This is another big step by the franchise to show it cares and that it wants to do good in the community.
“We launched our franchise with an eye to the future as well as an acknowledgment of the past,” said Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke. “This partnership manifests our gratitude and respect for the Muckleshoot People, past and present, who are the ancestral keepers of the land upon which Climate Pledge Arena sits and we play.”
On Dec. 15, Philipp Grubauer faced 39 shots against the Carolina Hurricanes and put the Kraken in a position to steal a game they had had no interest being in. It was an ugly game with the Kraken having just 33 percent of the shot attempts, and despite the Kraken being down 3-0 halfway though the game, they were very close to tying it in the third before eventually losing 3-2.
That was the moment I felt Grubauer turned the corner and started to be the goalie we expected he could be when the Kraken signed him in the summer of 2021, before the Kraken’s inaugural season. Ever since that game, I have felt that Grubauer should have earned more starts. Without further ado, I present my case for handing the net over to Philipp Grubauer.
Goal support
If you just look at the win-loss results for the two goaltenders this season, Martin Jones appears to be the better goalie, posting a record of 23-9-3 versus Grubauer’s 6-9-2. However, we know that wins and losses have a lot to do with how the team plays in front of the goaltender. For that, let us look at goal scoring by the Kraken for each starting goaltender.
In addition to the roughly 1.7 goals the Kraken average for Jones over Grubauer, 20 times or 59 percent of Jones’s starts, the Kraken score four goals or more. Sunday’s game against the Flyers was only the fourth time the Kraken have scored four or more goals for Grubauer. In fact, the Kraken have not scored more than four goals for any Grubauer start all season.
Save percentage
In a somewhat dated way of evaluating goalies, we can simply look at save percentage to evaluate the two goaltenders this year.
When we look at the chart, we can see that Grubauer has been steadily outperforming Jones in the save percentage category, but as I mentioned before, this is a slightly antiquated approach. Save percentage treats all shots as equal and does not consider the quality of the shots the goaltenders face when evaluating their performance.
Shot quality
I will not spend a lot of time talking about shot quality metrics, but the premise is that shots closer to the net and with a good angle are considered high-danger shots. Conversely, shots farther away and/or at a harsh angle to the net, are considered medium- or low-danger quality. For more information on shot quality, here is a nice breakdown from Alison Lukan.
Here is how save percentage breaks down at even strength by quality of shot. It is split into high-danger save percentage, medium-danger save percentage, and low-danger save percentage.
As the chart shows, Grubauer has a higher save percentage in all three categories over the season. The numbers are even more slanted in Grubi’s favor if you look at the numbers since Dec. 1.
Expected goals against versus actual goals against
The analytics community also has a statistic for evaluating a goalie’s performance called expected goals against. Keeping it simple, imagine expected goals against is what the most average goalie in the league would expect to give up if they were in net for the same exact shots that a goalie took in that game. You then take the difference of the expected goals against versus the actual goals against, and that will determine how well or poorly the goalie played compared to an average goalie in the same scenario.
For example, based on the location and scenarios around all the shots against in a game, if the expected goals against was 3.54 and the actual goals against was 3.00, then the difference would be -.54. Meaning, the goaltender saved .54 goals more than we would have expected from the average goaltender. For more on the expected goals statistic, checkout another great article by Alison.
This visual is a little more challenging to interpret, but you are looking for more dots below the zero line.
I added a reference line to show the direction each goaltender has trended lately, and it clearly shows Grubauer headed the right way and Jones heading the opposite way. One other insight I see on the chart is that Grubi’s last five starts have been better than average, and he has had only four starts that were below average this entire season.
It’s Grubauer’s time
I know that there are several flaws with strictly evaluating data to determine who should start in net for the Kraken, but all signs are pointing to Grubauer playing the best he has played in a Kraken uniform. He deserves a shot at getting a more regular cadence of games.
There has not been a single Seattle Kraken game since last week’s Monday Musings, but that has not stopped me from obsessing about this team. I have been digging into game logs, goalie data, shooting percentages, and more. Like all good data analysis, not all explorations bear fruit, but I did find some interesting observations in my data journeys this last week.
Shooting percentage
The early season narrative by some in the national media was that the Kraken were on a shooting percentage bender during the month of November, and ultimately their shooting percentage would slide back to Earth and the team would assume their expected place near the bottom of the Pacific Division. Obviously, that has not happened. The Kraken still maintain the highest shooting percentage in the league at 12.0 percent.
I am sure there are still some doubters, but eventually people might need to be open to the idea that this team could be one of the better shooting teams in the league. Some team needs to lead the league in shooting percentage, and it might as well be the Kraken.
Strength of schedule remaining
Another piece of data I looked into was the strength of schedule of the remaining games for Seattle. A concern I wondered about is if the first-place record in the first half was based on the fact the Kraken have generally played weaker teams in the league. Conversely, what does the rest of the season look like from a strength-of-schedule standpoint?
To my surprise, the Kraken have one of the weakest schedules remaining, which should give the team an easier road to the postseason compared with some of its challengers.
This bodes well for the boys of the Puget Sound, but it is worth pointing out the Kings and Flames also have a relatively weak schedule remaining this season.
Trade deadline
We have been getting a ton of questions about what the Kraken should do at the NHL trade deadline. Darren Brown and I were asked about it on KJR last week.
In my humble opinion, I wonder about adding some toughness for the playoffs. No, I am not talking about adding a goon or a fighter, those days are done. I would like to see the team add a bit of a bully that won’t let the Kraken get pushed around in the playoffs. Anybody that has watched the Stanley Cup Playoffs before knows that there is a scrum after every whistle and the checking seems heavier and more frequent. I just wonder what Seattle Kraken player will get opposing teams to think twice before running Matty Beniers. I think of players like Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow for Tampa in their two Stanley Cup wins. Both can score, and they brought a bit of a snarl to the Lightning.
I am not questioning the Kraken’s toughness. There have been several games where it would appear the opposition is trying to bully the team around only to see the Kraken respond in kind. Ryan Donato and Will Borgen have both impressed me with the ability to step up the physicality when needed, and we all know Yanni Gourde does not back down from anyone. So, it is entirely possible that this “skill set” is not needed, but it is something I would like to see.
Other Kraken musings:
The Kraken penalty kill has been on fire lately, having not allowed a power-play goal in seven games. That is 17 power plays killed in a row.
Oliver Bjorkstrand looks like his normal self these days. After posting a 4.0 shooting percentage in his first 30 games with the Kraken, he is shooting 11.8 percent in his 19 games since Dec. 18. He has not finished an NHL season with a shooting percentage under 10 percent since 2017-18, his first full NHL season. He is sitting at 7.1 total for the year right now.
The Kraken announced trading a fourth-round draft pick to the San Jose Sharks for defenseman Jaycob Megna. This was a depth add for an area that was becoming increasingly worrisome. Cale Fleury has stepped in nicely since Justin Schultz went out with an injury, but even with Schultz nearing a return, the blue line was still thin. Gustav Olofsson has been out injured in Coachella Valley, which left just three other defensemen under NHL contracts. Two of those defensemen are Ryker Evans and Peetro Seppala. Evans is having a great season, but he might not be ready for NHL action. Darren had a good write up about the trade and what Megna might bring to the table.
Chris Driedger has been back on the ice for a while now, but Monday marked another milestone by getting onto the ice and taking live reps from his teammates. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time he has been taking in a regular practice with the rest of the team.
Chris Driedger in net taking actual reps with his teammates.
It is not Kraken specific news, but it was announced last week that Mark Stone of the Vegas Golden Knights had back surgery and would be out indefinitely. Even in limited time, Stone was second in goal scoring for the Golden Knights this season. Vegas could be in real trouble here with a 2-6-2 record over its last 10 games. It is conceivable that the Golden Knights miss the playoffs for the second year in a row.
By now we have all gotten over that the Kraken were not represented at the NHL All-Star Game, but you still have an opportunity to check out some Kraken prospects representing the Coachella Valley Firebirds at the AHL All-Star Game. Ryker Evans and Max McCormick will play in the game on Monday, airing at 4 P.M. Pacific on the NHL Network.
Shane Wright returned to the lineup for the Windsor Spitfires Thursday and posted a one-goal and two-assist night in the Spitfires 7-4 victory against the Soo Greyhounds. The return was short lived. He was back out of the lineup for the Spitfires two games this weekend due to a lower-body injury.
Kraken prospect and third-round selection from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, Ty Nelson, posted his first career hat trick in the OHL on Sunday. The defenseman has been lighting it up this season with 60 points over 49 games.
The Arizona Coyotes announced that 2021 first-round selection, Dylan Guenther would be assigned to an already stacked Seattle Thunderbirds roster. I thought the 2016-17 Thunderbirds were a lot of fun to watch, but this is going to be insane. There are still plenty of home games before the playoffs start in late March.
The Thunderbirds welcome the Red Deer Rebels to town on Friday. This game should be a good showcase on how the Thunderbirds matchup against one of the top teams from the Eastern Conference.
A bit off the radar, but the University of Washington ACHA club hockey team finished its regular season with a record of 22-2-0. It has been an incredible season for the Huskies as they head to Cheney, Wash., for the Pac-8 Tournament. Good luck to the boys.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
This feels like another tough road test for the Kraken with four games over six days, including a run through the New York City metro area. Game action kicks off Tuesday against the revamped New York Islanders, which now feature Bo Horvat. After the boys go through the New York teams, they play the Flyers in Philadelphia, a team they have never beaten, and then finish the five-game swing in Winnipeg next Tuesday. Hitting the road right after the bye week/All-Star break can be a bit of a challenge, so capturing five out of the possible 10 points would be a success.
Outside of the team success, I think it will be interesting to keep on eye on Bjorkstrand to see if he maintains the same level of play we saw heading into the break. We also will be looking for the returns to the lineup for Beniers, Schwartz, and/or Schultz. Based on early reports out of New York this morning, things are looking good for at least a couple of the injured players to return.
Here are the lines for the #SeaKraken at this morning's practice.
Jacob Melanson (PDS/SEA) – Melanson continues his torrid pace since being traded to the Sherbrooke Phoenix of the QMJHL. He has six points in his last four games. Ty Nelson (NBB/SEA) – As mentioned above, Nelson had his first career OHL hat-trick on Sunday. Tye Kartye (CVF) – Kartye was an undrafted free-agent signing over the summer and is quietly having a good season in his first year as a professional. Kartye has four goals and three assists over his last six games.
Goal of the week
Add David Goyette to the list of Kraken prospects having excellent seasons for their respective teams. The late second-round draft pick has 30 goals and 31 assists over his 42 games with the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL.
Going into the season, one of the big question marks around the Seattle Kraken was goaltending. The tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Martin Jones has been decent for the season as a whole, but since Dec. 15, they have been performing above the league median.
If you have any questions or comments on the Monday Musings, please leave them below, and I will get back to you as soon as I can. In the meantime, enjoy the week. The Kraken are back!
