Almost two months have passed since we first outlined the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken. In that first iteration, we concluded the Kraken would need to hit 93 points to give themselves a 50-percent chance at making the playoffs. They fell three points behind the 93-point pace in January, so they needed to obtain 11 points in February to get back on track. They did just that.
It was a bumpy ride in February, but in the end, the Kraken finished the month 5-3-1 (exactly 11 points), capping it off with Philipp Grubauer’s first-ever shutout at Climate Pledge Area and first shutout of the season.
February review
List of games: LOSS – Sat, Feb. 10 @ Philadelphia 3 – 2 (Bubble) LOSS – Mon, Feb. 12 @ New Jersey 3 – 1 (Bubble) WIN – Tue, Feb. 13 @ NY Islanders 2 – 1 SO (Bubble) WIN – Thu, Feb. 15 @ Boston 4 – 1 (Playoff Bound) OT LOSS – Mon, Feb. 19 vs Detroit 4 – 3 (Bubble) WIN – Thu, Feb. 22 vs Vancouver 5 – 2 (Playoff Bound) LOSS – Sat, Feb. 24 vs Minnesota 5 – 2 (Bubble) WIN – Mon, Feb. 26 vs Boston 4 – 3 SO (Playoff Bound) WIN – Thu, Feb. 29 vs Pittsburgh 2 – 0 (Bubble)
Bubble teams:
Let us start with the lows of the month, which is how the Kraken fared against Bubble teams. After the NHL All-Star break, the Kraken came out flat and lost two straight games to the Flyers and Devils. That really put Seattle in a hole and increased the pressure to perform. Later in the month, the Kraken laid an egg, losing 5-2 to the Wild for their third loss to a Bubble team.
Goaltending:
Joey Daccord is showing signs of cooling off. He had one win during the month of February and four losses (three in regulation, one in overtime). He was also pulled in the Minnesota game, but on the positive side, he still held a respectable .904 save percentage for the month. The one win came against the Boston Bruins and was a bright spot for the Massachusetts native. Another player by the name of “Post, Clang” might have had a few saves in the Boston game as well.
On the flip side, as the team struggled with Daccord in net, they excelled with Grubauer and went 4-0-0 in his starts. The wins included Grubauer’s shutout of the Penguins, two shootout wins against the Islanders and Bruins, and another regulation win against the Canucks. The German Gentleman did not always need to be his best but looked solid in his return from injury. Grubauer posted a stingy .947 save percentage during the month of February.
Playoff-Bound teams:
The Kraken were a perfect 3-0 against Playoff-Bound teams, which highlights what this team is capable of achieving. Two wins against Boston and one win against Vancouver is something to build on with March now upon us. Continuing to succeed against top teams will be key to the Kraken’s chances of making the playoffs.
February overall:
In the original article on the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken, 93 points was shown to give a team a 50-percent chance of making the playoffs. Things that were hard to watch:
The Loss to the Wild resulted in a four-point swing
The Predators going on an amazing 9-1-0 run through the month
Remember, neither of these items changes the math. The Kraken need 30 points out of a possible 46 points to hit the 93-point target for the rest of the season. This works out to a .652 points percentage.
Focusing on March:
March is a busy month with 14 games on the schedule and the trade deadline fast approaching on March 8. Of the 14 games, six are against Playoff-Bound teams, three are against Bubble teams, and five are against Tanker teams. The Arizona Coyotes have gone 0-8-2 in their last 10 games and have been relegated to the Tanker teams. No other changes to team categorizations were made. Here is a list of the team categorizations:
Trade Deadline:
There are three more games before the trade deadline, but the Seattle Kraken are probably not going to get all the answers to their playoff hopes from just those games. Eyes will be on the Predators who also have three games before the trade deadline. If the Predators are able to widen their wild card lead even more, the Kraken might turn to being sellers at the deadline.
It should be noted that the Predators have two games in hand, so the current seven-point (as of Feb. 29) lead over the Kraken could be as small as three points. But everything would need to go in the Kraken’s favor over the next week for that to be true.
Wrap up:
March could very well play out similarly to February, as the first seven games are against tough opponents, before Seattle finishes the month with five of its last seven games in the month against Tankers. Strap in for another bumpy ride, but we should know the Kraken’s playoff fate by the end of this month.
With these extra few days between Rounds 2 and 3 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we thought it would be fun to look at the data behind the scoring to see how it compares to previous playoff years. Let’s take a look.
Playoff scoring versus the regular season
The first thing we wanted to look at is how this season’s playoff goal scoring compared to the regular season and previous years.
For a long time, we heard that scoring in the playoffs was far more difficult when compared to the regular season, but for the second year in a row, playoff scoring seems to be even with or slightly higher than regular-season scoring. However, when we think about it a bit more, we realize the playoff averages only include goals scored from the theoretical 16 best teams in the league, since half the teams don’t qualify. So, if we look at just the playoff teams’ goals in the playoffs versus regular season, we do see that scoring is lower in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Here is a breakdown of how each team’s scoring changed from the regular season to the playoffs on a per-game basis. Seattle scored 3.14 goals per game in the playoffs, down from 3.52 during the regular season.
Playoff goals by game situation
One aspect of this year’s playoffs that is getting a lot of attention is the number of power-play goals being scored. But we looked into it, and it seems to be in line with the last six Stanley Cup Playoff years.
A lot of the narrative could be driven by the Edmonton Oilers, who finished their playoffs with 41 percent of their goals coming from the power play.
Unsurprisingly, only 11 percent of Seattle’s goals came from the power play.
Margin of victory
Another item we wanted to consider is the average margin of victory in the playoffs.
Anecdotally, it has felt like there has been a significant number of blowouts in these playoffs, but the margin of victory is lower than it was last season. It might be more impactful to look at the distribution.
When comparing to last year, it seems like there have not been as many blowouts this year, but what is interesting to look at is that for playoff years in 2019, 2020, and 2021, there were more one-goal games than this year.
I hope this gives you some more insight on goal scoring in the playoffs and adds context to the comments we hear during the television broadcasts. If you have any questions or have an area you want me to dig into, let me know in the comments section.
The boys from the Seattle Kraken have been giving fans the full gamut of Stanley Cup Playoff experiences. After Dallas handed the Kraken two consecutive losses in Games 4 and 5 of the second-round matchup, the Kraken bounced back with a roller coaster of a win in Game 6.
Among us fans, there was some genuine concern going into Saturday’s Game 6 that the Kraken magic had finally run out. Instead, Seattle came out flying and overcame every bump in the road, earning a 6-3 win. It was a night that no fan in the building will forget.
Of course, that only set the stage for the game Monday; another Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In my mind, there is nothing greater in all of sports. The anxiety and suspense during Game 7 is like nothing else I feel in sports. It can be exhilarating and miserable at the exact same time. I could tell you to just enjoy it, but that is a fool’s errand, so I am going to tell you to just experience it however you see fit.
The full Stanley Cup Playoff experience
Making the playoffs is one thing, but the Kraken are giving new hockey fans the full spectrum of what the Stanley Cup Playoffs are all about. From Jordan Eberle’s overtime winner in Game 4 against the Avalanche to forcing a Game 7 against Dallas, these playoffs could not have been scripted any better for Seattle. It is heartwarming to see all the people talking about the Kraken right now, and this was part of my dream when I started the NHLtoSeattle grassroots campaign over 12 years ago. I am a product of playoff hockey, and I am sure the Kraken are minting new hockey fans with every passing game.
The legend of Tye Kartye continues to grow
Darren and I have talked about the legend of Tye Kartye several times on our YouTube “show,” Kraken Takeaways, but it is worth mentioning again; Tye Kartye is having a phenomenal debut for the Kraken, netting three goals over his nine playoff games so far.
He also had a huge hit on Ryan Suter in Game 6 that seemed to fire up the fans in the building. Clearly, coach Dave Hakstol is trusting this undrafted 22-year-old rookie by giving him more and more minutes. His 15+ minutes of ice time in Game 6 was the most he has played in a game this postseason. He was on the ice just under nine minutes in his debut in Game 5 of Round 1 and has seen his ice time increase steadily since then.
One of the lowlights of the 6-3 victory was the three response goals that Seattle allowed. There is no clear definition of a “response goal,” but for our purposes, we are going to define a response goal as a goal by an opposing team within two minutes of a goal being scored.
The Kraken allowed three response goals against them on Saturday. It is a problem that I have no clue how to solve and something we saw during the regular season as well.
Other Kraken Musings:
The Kraken’s defensive corps is a collective 12-1 in Game 7’s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs over their careers.
A year ago to the day, the Dallas Stars lost Game 7 to the Calgary Flames.
When Vegas made the Stanley Cup Final in 2018, the following year USA Hockey saw a 60 percent increase in memberships in Nevada. We should expect a large increase in local participation next season, as these playoffs will inspire thousands of people, young and old, to pick up the sport.
One thing that should not be overlooked is the Stanley Cup Playoff experience on this Kraken roster. Beyond just the cliche “Stanley Cup rings in the room,” plenty of guys have other playoff experience. Outside of the six guys with Stanley Cup rings, Jordan Eberle, Adam Larsson, Alex Wennberg, and Jamie Oleksiak all have significant playoff experience to draw from as they continue on this journey.
The Kraken power play looked much improved in Game 6 and scored one goal. The Kraken managed nine total shots on net during the power play, which is the most power play shots they’ve had in one game during these playoffs.
I am not ready to start thinking about next season, but Tye Kartye could fill in nicely to replace the probable departure of Daniel Sprong next season.
The Coachella Valley Firebirds got a split in the first two games of the third round of the AHL Calder Cup Playoffs against the Calgary Wranglers. They are playing a five-game series in which they played Games 1 and 2 in Calgary and will play Games 3, 4, and 5 at home. Game 3 is tonight and is at the same time the Kraken play their Game 7.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
Win and move on.
The players have earned this opportunity to be just one win away from the Western Conference Finals. It is a do or die moment for this group, and now is their opportunity to take it.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Jordan Eberle (SEA) – Eberle has eight points in the six games this series with five goals. Kole Lind (CVF/SEA) – Lind has 15 points over 10 games in the AHL’s Calder Cup Playoffs, including three goals in his last two games. Brad Lambert (SEA-WHL) – Lambert has 23 points over 18 games in the WHL Playoffs and had two goals in Game 2 of the WHL Championship Series for the Seattle Thunderbirds. The T-Birds are currently tied 1-1 with the Winnipeg Ice in that series after losing Game 1 and winning Game 2. They will play the next three at home, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday.
Chart of the Week
It has been the theme all season; the Kraken’s strength is their depth. Eighteen different players have scored in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the most by any postseason team. Of regulars in the lineup, only Ryan Donato has not scored a goal for the Kraken.
If you have any questions, comments, or observations, don’t hesitate to leave something in the comments, and I will do my best to get back to you. See you on the other side of Game 7!
Now that we are through the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, I thought it would be fun to look at the data behind the rosters and try to evaluate how they were built.
Player acquisition type
NHL Entry Draft, free agency, trades, and waiver wire acquisitions are all the various ways a team can build a roster. To build a contender, you need to use every tool at your disposal. Let’s look at how the 16 playoff teams built their rosters.
There is an adage in hockey that to be successful, you need to build your team through the draft, but three teams (Florida, Seattle, and Vegas) of the eight that are still alive in the Stanley Cup Playoffs have less than 15 percent of their rosters constructed through the draft.
It’s interesting to see the Dallas Stars have the highest percentage of players that were acquired via the NHL Entry Draft, being that they are facing the Kraken in the second round who have the lowest percentage of players from the draft. From the Seattle perspective, that is expected due to the team only having two entry drafts under its belt.
To add some context around the roster composition, we should look at which players are scoring each team’s goals by acquisition type.
Generally speaking, more goals are scored by players that were acquired via the draft compared to players acquired in other ways. The big outlier here is the Florida Panthers. 70 percent of the Panthers’ goals this postseason have come from players acquired via trade. Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Brandon Montour have 19 combined goals in the playoffs heading into Game 2 of their series against Toronto.
Here is a look at the average contributions this playoff by acquisition type:
Draft rounds
Regardless of the acquisition type, it is also fun to look at how many players each team has from each draft round.
As one would expect, players that were selected in the first-round account for the highest percentage of drafted players on the rosters. Vegas is the lone exception, as they have notoriously traded away a lot of their prospects (Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki, Erik Brannstrom, and Peyton Krebs) over the years to acquire players in their prime and give themselves a chance to win now.
Roster ages
The average age of a team is also an appealing data point to evaluate.
Boston was the oldest team to make the playoffs, with New Jersey being the youngest. It is also interesting to see that most teams have an elder statesman (over 35 years old), but the Kraken, Rangers, and Devils do not.
Height and weight of NHL playoff rosters
Here is a quick peek at the height and weight of all Stanley Cup Playoff teams.
It is important to point out that this aggregated view is not a weighted (no pun intended) average of minutes played and could be a little misleading when it comes to which players are logging the most minutes and how it could relate to the team height and weight.
Here is a look at the player detail behind the weight of the players:
How about the Big Rig, Jamie Oleksiak, weighing in at 257 pounds? Amazing to see how tight the Kraken are weight-wise, compared to other teams. I don’t think that is an advantage or disadvantage, just interesting to see the range compared to the other teams.
Roster breakdown by nationality
Finally, we will take a look at the nationality of the players on Stanley Cup Playoff rosters.
Vegas is the most Canadian team to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season. Is that because of the “snowbird” connection? Perhaps.
This was a very simple view at evaluating the rosters, but we hope it gives you a different perspective when watching this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. If you have questions about the data or some additional angles you would like me to consider, let me know in the comments section.
The Kraken find themselves down 2-1 in a best-of-seven series to the Colorado Avalanche heading into tonight’s pivotal Game 4 matchup. As one can expect from the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it has been quite the roller coaster of a series. We got the thrills in Game 1, the suspense in Game 2, and Game 3 was a combination of thrills and terror all in one. It is nice to know the Kraken are making sure we get the full playoff experience.
After mitigating the damage of the big guns of the Colorado Avalanche over the first two games, Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon had three points, while Mikko Rantanen had two in Game 3 on Saturday night. They came as advertised, and the Kraken will need to minimize the impact they have on the game Monday if they expect to win.
Despite the outcome, Saturday night was special and something I literally dreamed of for many years. Playoffs have a way of igniting a fanbase that will drive future fans, viewership, and hockey players. I am so proud of the Kraken organization and know this is just the tip of the iceberg in what we can expect from this organization.
Face-off possession goals
There is no secret that the Kraken struggled in the face-off circle during the regular season. That narrative has persisted into the playoffs with Seattle winning just 43.6 percent through three games. However, we have established that face-off percentages are not what they are cracked up to be.
Alison Lukan breaks it down well, but there are plenty of examples of why “face-off wins” are not always a great representation of actual outcomes. Here is an example of when Seattle “lost” the face-off and one when they “won” the face-off. After gaining that perspective halfway through the season, I’ve started to watch face-offs differently. Instead of focusing on what happens on the dot, I have been looking at the entirety of the play. My eyes (and probably my heart) felt like the Kraken allowed too many goals after a face-off in their zone in the first three games. There were two goals within 10 seconds of a face-off in Game 2 (Artturi Lehkonen and Devon Toews), and then in Game 3, the Avalanche added another one (Makar). Let’s look at the numbers.
It is true that the Kraken have allowed more goals off face-off scenarios this playoff, but looking at goals over three games is hardly a good sample to draw any conclusions. Over the season, the Kraken were right in line with the league average (.29 times per game). If we want to expand the sample, we can include shot attempts after a face-off. In addition to goals, shot attempts include shots, missed shots, and blocked shots. Here are how all playoff teams look in terms shot attempts against within 10 seconds of a face-off.
The chart shows that the Kraken are allowing more shot attempts after face-offs than average, but there is not that much difference between the Kraken and the Avalanche other than more of the Avalanche shot attempts are finding the back of the net. Calling it luck is probably a cop out, since I am sure the coaches can find some kind of breakdown in all the goals scored within 10 seconds of a face-off, but luck does play a part in it. Adding a few more games to the observations still will not create a strong sample, but it will be interesting to see if there will be a regression to a normalized number.
Coachella Valley Firebirds advance
The Seattle Kraken’s AHL affiliate has advanced to the second round of the AHL playoffs with a convincing 5-1 victory in Game 3 of a best-of-three first-round matchup against the Tucson Roadrunners. Shane Wright notched his first AHL playoff goal. Wright’s goal was assisted by recently signed 2022 second-round draft pick, David Goyette, for Goyette’s first professional point. The Firebirds will now face the Colorado Eagles in a best-of-five series that starts Wednesday in Colorado.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
Colorado is a fast team that still has the capabilities to challenge for the Cup while Seattle is a scrappy new kid on the block that no one gave a chance at winning this series. Legends are made from moments like these, so let’s root for some legendary moments and for the Kraken to shock the world by winning this series.
Other Kraken Musings
Morgan Geekie was out of the lineup in Game 3 to welcome the Geekie family’s first child, Gabby. Congratulations to the Geekie family.
With the new dad power, we should expect Geekie to notch at least two goals tonight, right?
Philipp Grubauer has been stellar in the first three games of the series, but the Kraken will need him to be even more stellar if they are going to have a chance in this series.
It was nice to see the Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle, and Matty Beniers line get on the board Saturday night when Beniers scored. Even beyond that goal, they were much more noticeable out there. Let’s hope that continues.
Zone entries appear to be the big challenge for the Kraken power play right now. The power play did get on the board on Saturday night, but that was off a face-off inside the zone and came with 40 seconds left in the game.
My heart won’t be able to take it, but I would love for some new Kraken fans to experience overtime hockey.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Yanni Gourde (SEA) – Yanni has been having a great series against the Avalanche. He has directly or indirectly created so many chances that do not necessarily show up on a stat sheet.
Joey Daccord (CVF/SEA) – Our good friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, Joey Daccord, is 2-1 with a .942 save percentage in his three playoff starts with the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
Jagger Firkus (MJW/SEA) – Firkus had eight points over the last three games for the Moose Jaw Warriors and has a point in every WHL playoff game for the Warriors. Moose Jaw is trying to fight off elimination as they take on the Winnipeg Ice. If the Warriors win, Game 7 will be Wednesday night.
If you have any questions, comments, or observations, don’t hesitate to leave something in the comments, and I will do my best to get back to you. In the meantime, Go Kraken!!!!
General manager Ron Francis has made it clear that the goal of the Seattle Kraken is to make the playoffs in 2022-23, which might seem like a stretch goal coming from a team that just finished fourth from last place in the NHL standings. The team will need to be aggressive this offseason to even be taken seriously in its quest to contend.
To explore what it will take to get into contention next year, we will be putting together a three-part series on how that could happen. The scenarios presented will be full of assumptions with imperfect data and incomplete analysis, but at its core, this will be a thought exercise that will help evaluate the offseason moves needed to make the Kraken a potential playoff team.
Evaluating the gap
The NHL’s point system, with one point awarded for overtime and shootout losses, makes things a little complicated, but effectively, teams must win more than they lose to make the playoffs. To do that, they need to score more goals than their opponents. Therefore, we will be using goals as our primary metric here, rather than standings points.
One challenge to consider when using goals, in NHL team statistics, a shootout win or loss will add a goal for or against respectively. Along with empty-net goals, these would overstate or understate a team’s goals with respect to this analysis, so keep that in mind. We were able to adjust the totals to remove empty-net and shootout goals, but those bonus goals awarded for shootout wins will remain.
To set the stage, let us look at the last 10 full seasons’ adjusted goals for and adjusted goals against to see how teams fared.
In the chart, the diagonal line represents when the goals for equals the goals against. This would be a goal differential (goals for minus goals against) of zero. If the team’s goal differential is positive (above the line), then the team has good chance of making the playoffs.
The picture is clearer if we just focus on the teams that qualify for the playoffs and those that do not, based on goal differential “buckets.”
Based on the data, a negative five goal differential is where teams have roughly a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs.
Kraken goal differential gap for contending in 2022-23
During the 2021-22 season the Kraken had a negative 59 adjusted goal differential. Assuming the negative five goal differential is the target for putting themselves in a solid position to qualify for the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, then they will need to eliminate a 54-goal gap. There are many ways this can be accomplished, but for this exercise we are going to keep it simple and focus on goaltending and goal scoring.
Goaltending must be better
According to Evolving-Hockey.com, the Kraken goaltending had a “Goals Saved Above Expected” (GSAx) of negative 41.3.
The math behind these numbers can be a bit complicated, but let’s put it in simple terms: If the Kraken received just average goaltending from their goaltenders, they would have allowed 41 fewer goals in the 2021-22 season. Expecting exeptional goaltending next season might be wishful thinking, but the goaltending tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger gave us reason for optimism by both playing their best hockey of the season down the stretch.
Expecting a major improvement to goaltending took a hit when the team announced that Driedger underwent surgery for a torn ACL with an expected timeline to return of seven-to-nine months. For now, we are going to assume a reasonable 10 GSAx improvement to next year’s goaltending.
Part two
This gives you the framework of the analysis that we intend to do here. In the next installment in the series, we will focus on goal scoring projections for the current Seattle Kraken players and where the team might be able to add personnel to address gaps in becoming a contender.
