Heading into the July, 2022 NHL Entry Draft, the Seattle Kraken have twelve draft picks, including a high first-round pick (No. 4 overall) and four second-round picks. This stockpile of picks, and the trades that acquired them, prompted me to revisit a longstanding curiosity: What is a draft pick “worth”?
A trade-data-driven approach
Over the years, there have been many studies quantifying the value of NHL Draft picks. Most of these studies have looked at the performance or longevity of the players taken at the various draft positions in order to reverse engineer a composite “expected value” for each pick.
For example, Michael Shucker created a model in 2011 that calculated pick value based on the odds of playing 200 NHL games. Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic created a draft pick model in 2020 based on a draft player’s Game Score Value Added (GSVA), a hockey analytic he pioneered. (Read more about GSVA here.)
This is not what I did. My approach says nothing about the projected quality of players selected in a particular draft position–at least not directly.
Instead I tried to get to how teams have–by their actions–actually valued draft picks. To do this, I looked at the pick-for-pick trades made by NHL teams in recent drafts with the goal of understanding how teams have actually stacked up the value of one pick versus another.
Say the Kraken trade the No. 35 pick in 2022 for the Nos. 44 and 76 picks in 2022. Is that a fair deal or not? Setting aside the actual players drafted, the historical trade data should help us understand whether or not the swapped picks balance out.
The trade value chart
Without further ado, here is my trade value chart:
To read this chart, find the value associated with the pick(s) targeted for a trade up or down (or involved in a known trade). If a trade returns more “points” to a team than it is giving up in exchange, then the team has obtained a good deal and vice versa.
Returning to our example, if the Seattle Kraken traded the No. 35 pick (116.07 points) for the No. 44 pick (78.37 points) and No. 76 pick (24.79 points), you could conclude that, while the trade is certainly in the neighborhood of “fair,” the Kraken lost a bit of value in the deal because they gave up 116.07 points of draft value but only received 103.16 points in return. Of course, this does not mean the deal is bad, necessarily, if the Kraken draft the better players. It just means that NHL teams value what they gave up more than what they received.
My first impression of the chart? Moving up in the NHL Draft is expensive. Graphically, the trade value chart looks like this:
How does this trade value chart compare with player-value-based approaches?
After building a model based on trades teams have actually made, it is natural to consider how it compares with the value-driven draft models already out there. Is there any market inefficiency between how teams actually behave and how they should behave?
I have not yet truly dug into this question since I think it would be a rewarding topic for its own separate article, but, preliminarily, I did compare the trade value chart against Luszczyszyn’s GSVA model. I normalized the values on our chart so that the total draft pick value as implied by trade data and the total draft pick value as indicated by drafted player GSVA would match.
While the curves are similar, there are notable divergences. Near the top of the draft, the trade value of a pick has exceeded the projected GSVA of the players actually selected. The gap is most significant at the first overall pick and steadily decreases until the values converge at approximately the 35th pick. In other words, the data suggests that a team is likely to produce surplus player value if it trades down out of the first round–even if it makes just an “average” trade as indicated by the market.
This dynamic flips thereafter. Particularly in the second and third rounds, the trade market apparently undervalues these draft picks, at least as indicated by drafted player GSVA.
Which pick is most undervalued by the market? The 64th overall. In this range–the late second round and into the third round–a team may be able to generate surplus value even by making just a “fair” trade moving up.
Eric Tulsky engaged in a similar project for Broad Street Hockey on the NHL Draft back in 2013, looking at trades from 2006-12. While the trade data and approach I employed were different–and I could not exactly replicate his results–the end draft pick values were actually not so far off, which suggests to me that there has not been a paradigm shift in team trade behavior over the last decade.
Methodology
If you’re interested in digging in more on the methodology behind developing this trade value chart, some limitations of my approach, and the performance of the model, click here to view an appendix to this article.
This is a very listener-centric episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, as John, Andy, and Darren spend a significant portion of the show interacting with Mailbag questions and five-star reviews. Hilarity ensues, as does some thoughtful debate.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Thunderbirds have advanced to the WHL Championship Series, which gets plenty of attention, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs are down to just four teams remaining.
Other topics this week Charlotte being eliminated from the AHL playoffs and John being enthralled by Tempe, AZ City Council meetings.
Segments this week include Weekly One-Timers, Tweets of the Week, and Three Stars.
There’s been a lot happening in the hockey world this past week, and the Sound Of Hockey Podcast is here to bring you up to speed. From the Seattle Thunderbirds continuing their run deep in the WHL playoffs to the three remaining second-round NHL playoff series, John, Andy, and Darren will fill you in on all that has transpired.
NHL topics discussed include, but are not limited to:
The Kraken reportedly (but unofficially) signing Samuel Bucek.
The Flames and Oilers both giving up hilarious goals.
The Panthers getting swept
Name Kadri turning from villain to hero.
Segments this week include Hype-o-theticals, Weekly One-Timers, Tweets of the Week, and Three Stars.
Episode 188 is here, and there are conversations to be had about all levels of hockey, from the WHL to the AHL to the NHL.
At the AHL level, the Charlotte Checkers are alive and well and are heading into the second… er… third round of the Calder Cup playoffs. In the WHL, the Seattle Thunderbirds have reached the Western Conference Championship Series and will take on the Kamloops Blazers. And at the NHL level, the second round of the playoffs is now underway.
Looking back on the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Sound Of Hockey Podcast discusses the onslaught of Game 7’s that happened last week and the many wonders of Jake Oettinger (among other topics).
Eventually, John, Andy, and Darren will shift to segments, which this week include Weekly One-Timers, Tweets of the Week, and Three Stars.
Are you a fan of lottery balls whipping around a plastic receptacle? Do you like watching the NHL’s Deputy Commissioner awkwardly hold up placards with team logos on them? Then the NHL Draft Lottery is for you.
The 2022 version of the NHL Draft Lottery takes place Tuesday night at 3:30 Pacific and will be televised on ESPN. Admittedly, it’s not the most enthralling television, but it will let us all know what pick the Seattle Kraken will end up with for July’s NHL Draft. Thanks to Seattle’s third-period collapse in Winnipeg in the season’s last game, the Kraken ended up with the third worst record meaning they have a 11.5 percent chance of landing the top pick and will select no later than fifth.
With the regulation loss to the Jets, the #SeaKraken lock in the 3rd spot in the NHL Draft Lottery. Here are the odds of the Kraken's first round draft pick. pic.twitter.com/dy5M2btzoP
No matter where Seattle ends up, general manager Ron Francis has a shot at landing a quality player and maybe even a guy who will report straight to Kraken Community Iceplex and play in year one.
But who are these guys and who should the Kraken pick at each possible spot?
Here is a look at five potential new Kraken prospects.
With the first overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, the Kraken select…
Shane Wright, F, Kingston Frontenacs – OHL
6-foot-1, 185 pounds
This is a no-brainer. Wright will be the first pick taken overall. Every now and then an article pops up asking if Logan Cooley or some other prospect is ‘closing the gap,’ but those articles are trying to make the race seem interesting. The race is over, and if Seattle wins Tuesday’s lotto, Wright will be playing for the Kraken this fall.
Wright applied for and was granted exceptional status to play in the Ontario Hockey League as a 15-year-old due to his advanced skill. He scored 39 goals as a rookie in 2019-20 while turning 16 in January of that season. He proved worthy of the exceptional status and this past season scored 32 goals but added 28 more assists than that rookie campaign, as he’s now a more complete player.
Last spring, at 16 years old, he was with Team Canada at the IIHF U18 World Championship. With COVID canceling seasons, the tournament was loaded with older draft prospects, and Wright scored nine times and had 14 points in five games. He is NHL ready.
With the second overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, the Kraken select…
Logan Cooley, F, USNTDP
5-foot-10, 174 pounds
Speed and skill are the highlights of Cooley’s game, and the Kraken will jump at the Pittsburgh product if they land the second overall pick. Committed to play at the University of Minnesota next season, Cooley is a dynamic offensive player who can be a game changer.
Is Logan Cooley ready for the NHL in his first year after being drafted? (Rena Laverty / USA Hockey’s NTDP.)
Playing with the U.S. National Team Development Program, he’s scored 40 goals and 71 assists in 75 games. He played for the U.S. at the recently completed U18’s and rang up 10 points in six games. Cooley has the speed and skill to draw defenders in, allowing him to find wide-open teammates.
Can he play in the NHL right away? He’s not the biggest player in the world so it may depend on how much strength he adds this summer and how he performs at a prospect camp in July. By comparison, Montreal’s Cole Caufield is listed at 5-foot-7 and 166 pounds which is shorter and lighter than Cooley. Caufield just completed his first full NHL season and scored 23 goals.
With the third overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, the Kraken select…
Juraj Slafkovsky, F, TPS (Finland)
6-foot-4, 218 pounds
Slafkovsky raised eyebrows when he scored seven goals for the Slovakian team at the Bejing Winter Olympics. That performance has skyrocketed him up the draft ranks, and he is generally considered a top-five prospect.
He has size and a diverse set of skills that makes him a threat on nearly every shift. He can shoot and has a nose for the goal but also has shown that he can distribute the puck. His big frame could allow him to play right away, and he has spent most of this season playing in the pro Liiga in Finland for TPS. He has five goals and ten points with TPS which doesn’t jump off the page, but this is a contending team with older, veteran players. Will his abilities translate to the NHL?
With the fourth overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, the Kraken select…
Matthew Savoie, F, Winnipeg ICE – WHL
5-foot-9, 178 pounds
Savoie had a spectacular season for the ICE who are currently tearing their way into the Eastern Conference finals in the WHL playoffs. Savoie’s arrival has been much anticipated and while COVID forced him to play in the USHL last year, he has not disappointed this year. He piled up 90 points on 35 goals and 55 assists in 65 games during the regular season.
Top prospect for the #2022NHLDraft Matthew Savoie scored a pair of goals for Winnipeg last night, bringing him to 11 goals and 21 assists in just 20 games. Kid can shoot it. pic.twitter.com/Hn1hE3fLwT
He can do a little bit of everything and do it well. He can skate, pass, and shoot which keeps opposing defenses on their heels. Savoie is on the smaller side, making it unclear if he’s ready for the NHL in year one. Skill-wise he’s there, and he has shown that he can play a bigger game with some high-end savvy, so he could have a shot.
With the fifth overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, the Kraken select…
Simon Nemec, D, Nitra – Slovakia
6-foot-1, 192 pounds
Widely considered the top defenseman in this year’s draft, if he’s there at five, Seattle should take him. He has 16 assists this season with Nitra in the Slovakian league and passing the puck is considered his strongest asset.
Scouts don’t consider him a guy who will dazzle with end-to-end rushes up the ice, but he sees the ice well and can distribute the puck. He’s most likely not NHL ready in year one and would either play another year overseas or would need some development time playing the North American game.
The Seattle Kraken season is now officially over. The games have been played, the lockers have been cleaned out, and the end-of-conference press conferences have been had. On this episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, John, Andy, and Darren will bring you up to date on all the last tidbits of the franchise’s inaugural season.
Meanwhile, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are also now in full swing, which means this show moving toward the offseason is going to shift back to its roots as a general hockey podcast. The biggest piece of general hockey news from this past week just so happened to be Louie Domingue’s in-game meal for Game 1 of Pittsburgh’s series against the Rangers, so that gets plenty of discussion.
After diving into Domingue’s culinary choices, the guys shift to a Mailbag from listeners, which covers several different Kraken-related topics.
Finally, the show moves to segments, which this week include You Don’t See That Every Day, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
