And just like that, the 2022-23 hockey season has all but ended, as the Stanley Cup was awarded this week to the Colorado Avalanche after they knocked off the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning. The Sound Of Hockey Podcast guys recap that fun series and share some of their favorite moments from the Cup celebration to date.
After Cup talk, John, Andy, and Darren shift their focus to Kraken talk, then Hockey Hall of Fame induction talk.
Next, we get a couple quick junior-related updates and an AHL update before segments, which this week include Bad Boys, You Don’t See That Every Day, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
General manager Ron Francis has made it clear that the goal of the Seattle Kraken is to make the playoffs in 2022-23, which might seem like a stretch goal coming from a team that just finished fourth from last place in the NHL standings. The team will need to be aggressive this offseason to even be taken seriously in its quest to contend.
To explore what it will take to get into contention next year, we will be putting together a three-part series on how that could happen. The scenarios presented will be full of assumptions with imperfect data and incomplete analysis, but at its core, this will be a thought exercise that will help evaluate the offseason moves needed to make the Kraken a potential playoff team.
Evaluating the gap
The NHL’s point system, with one point awarded for overtime and shootout losses, makes things a little complicated, but effectively, teams must win more than they lose to make the playoffs. To do that, they need to score more goals than their opponents. Therefore, we will be using goals as our primary metric here, rather than standings points.
One challenge to consider when using goals, in NHL team statistics, a shootout win or loss will add a goal for or against respectively. Along with empty-net goals, these would overstate or understate a team’s goals with respect to this analysis, so keep that in mind. We were able to adjust the totals to remove empty-net and shootout goals, but those bonus goals awarded for shootout wins will remain.
To set the stage, let us look at the last 10 full seasons’ adjusted goals for and adjusted goals against to see how teams fared.
In the chart, the diagonal line represents when the goals for equals the goals against. This would be a goal differential (goals for minus goals against) of zero. If the team’s goal differential is positive (above the line), then the team has good chance of making the playoffs.
The picture is clearer if we just focus on the teams that qualify for the playoffs and those that do not, based on goal differential “buckets.”
Based on the data, a negative five goal differential is where teams have roughly a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs.
Kraken goal differential gap for contending in 2022-23
During the 2021-22 season the Kraken had a negative 59 adjusted goal differential. Assuming the negative five goal differential is the target for putting themselves in a solid position to qualify for the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, then they will need to eliminate a 54-goal gap. There are many ways this can be accomplished, but for this exercise we are going to keep it simple and focus on goaltending and goal scoring.
Goaltending must be better
According to Evolving-Hockey.com, the Kraken goaltending had a “Goals Saved Above Expected” (GSAx) of negative 41.3.
The math behind these numbers can be a bit complicated, but let’s put it in simple terms: If the Kraken received just average goaltending from their goaltenders, they would have allowed 41 fewer goals in the 2021-22 season. Expecting exeptional goaltending next season might be wishful thinking, but the goaltending tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger gave us reason for optimism by both playing their best hockey of the season down the stretch.
Expecting a major improvement to goaltending took a hit when the team announced that Driedger underwent surgery for a torn ACL with an expected timeline to return of seven-to-nine months. For now, we are going to assume a reasonable 10 GSAx improvement to next year’s goaltending.
Part two
This gives you the framework of the analysis that we intend to do here. In the next installment in the series, we will focus on goal scoring projections for the current Seattle Kraken players and where the team might be able to add personnel to address gaps in becoming a contender.
On this week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast, the guys give a couple quick Seattle Kraken updates, revolving around the signing of Finnish free agent Ville Petman and the re-signing of Jeremy Lauzon with the Nashville Predators. They then shift their focus to junior hockey, where they discuss the Seattle Thunderbirds falling just short against the Edmonton Oil Kings and Kraken prospect Ryan Winterton reaching the Memorial Cup.
Eventually, John, Andy, and Darren circle back around to NHL talk, discussing the opening of the Stanley Cup Final, Bruce Cassidy and John Tortorella getting hired by NHL teams, and Gary Bettman’s latest presser.
Segments this week include Bad Boys, Weekly One-Timers, Tweets of the Week, and Three Stars.
For Seattle hockey fans, things haven’t gone their way recently. The Seattle Thunderbirds are now down 3-1 in the WHL Championship Series after losing two straight at home this week to the Edmonton Oil Kings, and Kraken goalie Chris Driedger tore his ACL playing in the IIHF World Championship.
On this episode, the Sound Of Hockey Podcast breaks down those WHL games and discusses what options the Kraken have to backfill Driedger’s position.
For the 2021-22 season, USA Hockey player membership has increased 20 percent nationwide over the 2020-21 season. According to the recently released numbers from USA Hockey, there were 93,603 player memberships added over the 2021-22 season increasing the total to 547,429. Recovery from the pandemic-impacted season is in full swing, but the overall numbers have not returned to their pre-pandemic levels where player memberships were 561,700 for 2019-20. Of the 52 territories in the report, 23 of them are exceeding their 2019-20 player membership numbers.
Here is a deep dive into some of the insights in the report.
USA Hockey memberships – the biggest increase
The biggest gainers in memberships were also the hardest hit during the pandemic season. California, Michigan, and New York saw the biggest rebound in memberships this season. California added 16,113 this year after losing 20,769 from 2019-20 to 2020-21 season.
It’s awesome to see Washington State add the fifth most members this season with an additional 4,610 memberships. In terms of percentage increase, Washington added the second most players.
USA Hockey breakdown by age groups
When we slice the data by age groups we can see the most robust recovery is coming from the adult hockey space (19+), but the second biggest increase is from the ‘Six and Under’ age group.
Washington State by the numbers
If we just filter on Washington State, we can see where the growth is coming from locally.
The biggest net additions is coming from the adult levels. There are two main reasons for this:
Recovery. Several leagues had significant shut downs during the 2020-21 season, so as these leagues started to come back, so would the players. Several of the leagues did not come back online until spring of 2021 as COVID-19 vaccines started to become available. These leagues were slow to ramp up and in most cases did not hit their stride until late spring/early summer when new memberships were classified for the 2021-22 season.
Kraken Adult Learn To Play. Adult learn-to-play programs are not new to the greater Seattle area, but the Kraken ran their programs all year and had multiple programs going each week. This meant their capacity per class was significantly higher than other programs.
On the youth hockey front, the biggest growth came from players 10 and under. Again, this is another indication of the Kraken’s influence and commitment to grow the game in the region. Part of this is a function of the NHL Learn to Play program that, up until this year, was not available to people in this part of the country.
Local organizations do not share their individual membership totals, but it is a safe assumption that the growth was not strictly from the Kraken youth hockey programs. The Kraken will get a lot of credit for the growth, but there are about a dozen associations in or near Seattle that continue to support learn-to-play programs of their own.
Washington State outlook
After the launch of the Vegas Golden Knights during the 2017-18 season, Nevada saw a huge spike in player memberships, but that did not happen until the following season.
However, it is unrealistic to expect the kind of explosive growth Nevada saw for a couple reasons. First, the Golden Knights had a magical inaugural season that ended with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final. That injected a new hockey market with excitement and enthusiasm that would propel kids and adults to try the sport out for themselves. The Kraken did expose the sport to many new families, which will inspire people to try it out next season, but a playoff run would have invigorated the fan base even more. Such a run likely would have led to a more massive increase in membership rates for Washington State.
Additionally, Nevada had a very low number of USA Hockey player memberships before the Golden Knights joined the league, enabling that region to grow its numbers at an unprecedented rate. To put it in a business perspective, Nevada had an untapped customer base. Washington State, on the other hand, had a significant number of hockey players in the area before the Kraken arrived.
There is little doubt that we will continue to see an increase in participation in Washington State, as the Kraken continue to grow the sport directly with “Try Hockey For Free” events and focused programming. But there will also be an organic impact, as the team improves on the ice, that will excite more and more families to take up hockey.
If you have any questions about the data or the analysis, please drop us a line on twitter or in the comments section.
KENT – The Seattle Thunderbirds were three and a half seconds away from a chance of tying their best-of-seven WHL Championship Series against the Edmonton Oil Kings Wednesday night at the accesso ShoWare Center at two games apiece. The game was tied at 2-2 and one clear of the puck would have sent Game 4 into overtime, but Seattle couldn’t get it out of their zone.
Instead, Edmonton kept the puck in and Oil Kings defenseman Logan Dowhaniuk flung the puck towards the Seattle net. It somehow found its way through bodies to send Edmonton to a stunning 3-2 Game 4 win over Seattle, disappointing the 4,468 in attendance.
The Oil Kings now lead the series three games to one.
The Thunderbirds may have played their best game of the series, scoring twice on the power play and outshooting Edmonton by a 38-25 margin, but couldn’t get another puck past Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa.
“That’s playoff hockey sometimes, you don’t always get what you deserve,” Thunderbirds coach Matt O’Dette said. “There’s obviously things that we could have done better in the game to come out on top. But we worked, we came to play. Disappointing ending, but we did a lot of good things tonight.”
Edmonton was paced by a pair of scores from Josh Williams, 32 saves from Cossa, and is one win away from its third WHL Championship and a trip to the Memorial Cup.
Jared Davidson and Lucas Ciona scored for Seattle while goalie Thomas Milic kicked away 20 Oil Kings shots.
“I thought we played a good hockey game,” O’Dette said. “We needed to respond after last night to play a better game. We did clean up a lot of areas that we needed to clean up. It’s a heartbreaker, there’s no other way to say it. I mean, it’s a heartbreaking ending and we have no time to dwell on it. We have to be able to regroup and get ready for the next game.”
Game 5 will be played back in Edmonton on Saturday.
Wednesday’s game got off to a rocky start. Seattle defenseman Tyrel Bauer was given a five-minute major after a hit on Edmonton’s Brendan Kuny, who was carried off on a stretcher early in the contenst. Bauer’s penalty carried with it an automatic game misconduct.
In what was likely Bauer’s final game at the ShoWare Center – he is a signed prospect of the Winnipeg Jets and eligible to play in the American Hockey League next season – ended after five minutes of play.
“[The ref] said they had no choice because the player was injured,” O’Dette said of the call. “I thought it was incidental contact. Kind of two guys colliding that maybe didn’t see each other. I thought Bauer was heading back to the front of the net to defend. Obviously, you never want to see a player hurt like that. I hope he’s okay.”
After the game, Oil Kings coach Brad Lauer said that Kuny had been released from a local hospital and would recover.
Seattle survived the five minutes, but Reid Schaefer was called for boarding just before the major penalty ended, giving Edmonton two more minutes of a power play, but the Thunderbirds were able to kill that off as well.
Seattle’s penalty kill was quick on pucks and got clears while the Oil Kings could not get set up.
“Seven minutes straight on the kill is never ideal,” Seattle’s Jared Davidson said. “They found a way to get ‘er going and shut them down. It was awesome, awesome to see.”
The Thunderbirds then went on a power play of their own and cashed in when Calgary Flames prospect Ciona scored his eighth of the postseason to make it 1-0 at 16:08 of the first period.
Edmonton squared the game at 3:37 of the second period on a goal by Josh Williams who slid a rebound past Milic.
Williams would score again to make it 2-1 at 5:50 when he circled and fired a wrist shot.
Seattle tied the game at 12:58 on a perfect wrister from Davidson who scored his 13th goal of the postseason. The Thunderbirds ended the night 2-for-5 on the power play. The one power play on which they didn’t convert but needed to the most came with 2:40 left in the game when Justin Sourdif was called for a trip. The Thunderbirds couldn’t find one more goal, setting up the late-game heroics for Edmonton.
“I think we were getting to the net a little bit better,” Davidson said. “We were getting those second and third chances when they were sitting there, and we were taking away Cossa’s eyes a little bit better today.”
Seattle has been down 3-1 in the postseason once before, against Portland in the second round. They were able to find a way and fight back, winning twice on the road. They’re going to need to find that motivation one final time.
“We’ve been here before, so we just got to take it one step at a time, one game.” Lucas Ciona said.
Notes
> Seattle played without overager Henrik Rybinski who was hurt during Game 1 of the series.
> Likewise, the Oil Kings were without star Dylan Guenther who apparently was injured during Tuesday’s Game 3.
> It was the last game at the accesso ShoWare Center for Rybinski, Lucas Svejkovsky, and Ryan Gottfried, who are too old to return to the WHL next season.
