by John Barr | Aug 9, 2021 | Uncategorized
For this week’s Data Dump, we thought it would be fun to look at what has transpired in the 2021 NHL free agency period by the numbers. For the last year we have been talking about the salary cap crunch impacting most of the teams across the league. The 2020 free agency period illustrated that impact with overall free agency contract commitments down ~20% from 2019 to 2020. We also saw declines in salary cap hit, total contract value, and lengths of contracts as NHL general managers tried to navigate this flat cap challenge. With about two weeks of free agency under our belts, the question is whether or not this conservative approach would continue for 2021. Let’s find out.
Total dollars committed in NHL free agency
The first thing we looked at is the total dollars committed by NHL teams in 2021 free agency. In other words, what is the sum of the total value of all free agent contracts signed? Since we still have 60+ days before the start of the season, we are showing it by day to have a more accurate comparable on where we stand during this free agent period.
As the chart suggests, GM’s are committing more dollars than any time over the last 4 free agent periods. However, there is a new team in the NHL this season and including the new team’s singings to previous free agent periods is not a fair comparable. For that reason, let us exclude Seattle Kraken signings.
When we filter out the Seattle signings, the total committed dollars are still up over the last four years but not nearly as much when we include the Kraken signings.
2021 NHL free agent signing detail
To get more insights on the free agent signings, we break out the number of signings, AAV cap hit, term, and total committed dollars by year. You can also filter by team and position as you see fit.
When looking at the detail, one area that stands out is a 26% increase year over year in total signings, and we still have 60 days of potential additional signings before the season starts. Part of this increase is driven by Seattle, but the Kraken have only signed six unrestricted free agents. 2021 has just happened to bring more free agents to the market compared to previous years.
NHL free agency spend by team
The last step here is to look at the dollar commitments by team to determine who is spending and who is not.
With a relatively blank slate, there is no surprise that Seattle has committed the most money in free agency this year. Alex Wennberg, Jaden Schwartz, and of course Philipp Grubauer account for $76.4 of the $87.7 million in committed contract money. Not included in the Kraken’s numbers above is Jamie Oleksiak ($23M), Adam Larsson ($16M), and Chris Driedger ($10.5M) that were signed to contract extensions during the Expansion Draft, therefore prior to the free agency period.
League assessment
From the data, cap spend and financial commitments to player payroll are close to pre-pandemic levels. This can and should tie the hands of several NHL teams in the next few seasons. Meanwhile Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa, and Seattle are all well positioned to use their cap space as a weapon over the next few seasons. This will be an interesting strategy to monitor, as we are expected to remain in a flat cap era for at least another three seasons.
by Darren Brown | Aug 4, 2021 | Uncategorized
On this week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast, the guys have a lot to get through from around the NHL and specifically within the Seattle Kraken organization, where three big-time free agents joined the ranks last week.
So, John, Andy, and Darren break that down first and consider what those additions mean for the inaugural roster. They also share their thoughts on what the Kraken have put together in general, before moving on to the rest of the league.
In talking about the rest of the NHL, with so many players on the move over the past couple weeks, the hosts take an approach of discussing only those teams and players who have created the most intrigue with their respective moves. It’s like a pre-filtered version of “Interesting or Carry On.”
Segments on this episode include Weekly One-Timers and Tweets of the Week.
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by John Barr | Aug 2, 2021 | NHL Expansion Draft, Uncategorized
We are roughly two weeks removed from the Seattle Expansion Draft, and the roster has already shifted quite a bit since the players were announced at Gas Works Park on July 21. Five of the players selected are no longer with the team and three high-profile free agents have been added to the squad. One thing that has been interesting over the last two weeks is the stark contrast between how the Vegas Expansion Draft played out and how the Seattle Expansion Draft went. With similar rules but very different circumstances, the two organizations ultimately took very different routes to constructing their inaugural rosters.
Expansion Draft roster moves
By the rules, Seattle and Vegas were each required to select 30 players from the teams participating in the Expansion Draft. At a high level, there were four different scenarios that could have played out for these player assets.
- Left Via UFA – This is a scenario where the drafted player became an unrestricted free agent as soon as the UFA period opened after the Expansion Draft. Selecting players with expiring contracts implied that Vegas or Seattle had no intention of signing these impending free agents and did not see any other notable assets on the NHL team’s roster from which they came.
- The Flip-Trade – In this scenario, the Golden Knights or Kraken drafted a player with the sole purpose to trade him to another team within days of the Expansion Draft.
- Side Deal – This was more of a conventional trade that would involve Vegas or Seattle being offered up draft picks, prospects, or other players to assure they select or avoid a certain individual that was exposed.
- Draft and Extend – Several players that were exposed by their teams were on the last year of their respective contracts and therefore were unsigned for the subsequent season. In the “draft and extend” scenario, Vegas/Seattle could draft the player in the Expansion Draft and sign them to a contract extension.
Vegas Expansion Draft moves
Here is a look at the Vegas Expansion Draft moves
The theme of the Vegas Expansion Draft was side deals. They acquired four additional players this way, plus the negotiation rights of another player that signed a contract nine months later with the team.
Seattle Expansion Draft moves
The Kraken had zero side deals in the Expansion Draft, but they were able to draft and extend three pending unrestricted free agents during the 48-hour negotiating period prior to the Expansion Draft. The signings of Jamie Oleksiak, Chris Driedger, and Adam Larsson to contracts should be testimonials to how players now view playing for an expansion team.
Shea Theodore, Reilly Smith, and Alex Tuch are all considered the steals of the Vegas Expansion Draft that embarrassed several NHL general managers. This is likely why there were no side deals in the Seattle Expansion Draft as general mangers feared looking bad this time around.
Free Agency – Vegas signings
Following the Vegas Expansion Draft, the general consensus was that the Golden Knights would be the worst team in the NHL in their inaugural season. That outlook probably created some reluctance for some of the higher sought-after free agents to sign with the Golden Knights. It shows in their signings when free agency opened that year.
If you do not recognize many of those names, it is probably because very few of them would actually go on to play in the NHL after signing with the Golden Knights.
Seattle free agent signings
Conversely, the success of the Golden Knights in their first year of existence probably created some sense of optimism around playing for an expansion draft team. It certainly helped in signing Oleksiak, Driedger, and Larsson during the Expansion Draft, but also came into play during free agency.
Seattle made significant upgrades in free agency while Vegas added minor league depth that never amounted to much at the NHL level.
Accumulation of draft picks
The one area where Vegas did particularly well was its ability to accumulate draft picks around the Expansion Draft. George McPhee, general manager of the Golden Knights in 2017, accumulated an additional 14 draft picks. These picks were accumulated in side deals and trades.
As mentioned above, Seattle did not have any side deals in the Expansion Draft, which really hampered their ability to accumulate draft picks. To date, Seattle has made three post-Expansion-Draft trades that have added three NHL Entry Draft picks to their quiver.
The unwillingness of NHL general managers to participate in side deals during the Seattle Expansion Draft has certainly put a damper on the Kraken’s ability to stockpile draft picks.
The Kraken are not done yet
We are quickly approaching the quiet part of the NHL calendar when there will be little news and even fewer trades. It might stay quiet on the Seattle front for a bit, but the Kraken are not done making roster moves. They still have some salary cap space at their disposal and a strong defensive core that might provide some value on the trade market. Anticipate things to heat up come September as training camps start to open across the NHL.
by John Barr | Jul 27, 2021 | Uncategorized
The Seattle Kraken are armed with enough salary cap space to make legitimate runs at highly sought-after players when the free agency period opens Wednesday morning. We reviewed the top 10 free agents available entering free agency to evaluate the chances of the Seattle Kraken landing one of the big fish that will be on the market.
Gabriel Landeskog – Forward – Colorado Avalanche
Estimated Term and Salary: Seven years at $8 million to $9 million per year.
It’s no secret that Gabriel Landeskog, the rugged 28-year-old winger, will be coveted in free agency. The current captain of the Colorado Avalanche has averaged close to a point per game over the last three seasons. Most prognosticators never thought Landeskog would reach free agency and would just sign an extension with the Avalanche, but here we are. All 32 teams would love having a guy like Landeskog on their rosters, but very few have the salary cap space to make that kind of a commitment.
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Moderate. Seattle certainly has the space and the need for someone like Landeskog, but he might be more interested in taking his services to a true Stanley Cup contender before taking his chance on an expansion franchise.
Dougie Hamilton – Defenseman – Carolina Hurricanes
Estimated Term and Salary: Seven years at $8 million to $9 million per year.
Hamilton is the standout defenseman in this year’s crop of free agents, and like Landeskog, can probably pick his spot. He is a big, scoring defenseman that will likely quarterback the power play wherever he lands.
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Slim. The Kraken prioritized defense in the Expansion Draft and Mark Giordano is probably penciled in to run the power play.
Philipp Grubauer – Goalie – Colorado Avalanche
Estimated Term and Salary: Five years at $6 million to $7 million per year.
Grubauer is a one of the few top-tier goalies out there in free agency. He has been one of the more consistent netminders in the NHL, having never dipped below a .915 save percentage over a season since he broke into the league back in 2013-14. He will be looking for a significant pay raise from his $3.3 million salary.
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Slim. The Kraken drafted and signed Chris Driedger in the Expansion Draft, and it appears Driedger and Vitek Vanecek will be the goaltenders in year one of the franchise.
Mike Hoffman – Forward – St. Louis Blues
Estimated Term and Salary: Five years at $5 million to $6 million per year.
Hoffman has flown under the radar the last few years and has averaged over 25 goals per season his entire career. Hoffman had 17 goals last season which ties the highest goal scorers on the Kraken’s current roster (Joonas Donskoi and Yanni Gourde both had 17 last season).
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Moderate. Hoffman is 31, and the analytic projections do not favor players that are over 30, but the Kraken need scoring, and they need centers.
Phillip Danault – Forward – Montreal Canadiens
Estimated Term and Salary: Seven years at $5.5 million to $6.5 million per year.
Danault is a brilliant two-way center that has a lot of versatility. He can be used on the penalty kill and can slot in with a top line at five-on-five. He has never scored a lot of goals but can be relied upon for ~10 per season.
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Somewhat high. Danault fits the identity of what the Seattle Kraken appear to be building and might have more goal scoring capabilities in him if he plays higher in the lineup.
Zach Hyman – Forward – Toronto Maple Leafs
Estimated Term and Salary: Seven or eight years at $5 million per year.
Hyman is a strong, offensive, play-driving forward. With his hard-working approach, he can be relied upon for ~20 goals a season
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Slim. It sounds as if Hyman has an agreement in principle with Edmonton, and if his rights are traded to Edmonton before free agency begins, he will sign an eight-year deal. Otherwise it will be a seven-year deal, the max allowed for free agents that weren’t previously with the team.
Alex Wennberg – Forward – Florida Panthers
Estimated Term and Salary: Five years at $4.5 million to $5 million per year.
At 26, Wennberg is one of the youngest top-tier free agents on the list. The scouting report on Wennberg is that he is a very skilled pass-first center but seemed to change his game a bit this year. In his one and only year with Florida, he had 17 goals and 12 assists, the most goals he has scored in a single season.
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Somewhat high. Wennberg looks like a perfect fit for Seattle, but most teams would love his services, so he will have options.
Brandon Saad – Forward – Colorado Avalanche
Estimated Term and Salary: Four years at $4.5 million to $5 million per year.
Saad has been an annual 20-goal scorer in the league. He is not an elite scorer or playmaker but can be a great supplementary piece to a line that does have an elite forward. He is also a two-time Stanley Cup Champion.
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Moderate. The Kraken need goal scorers and Saad can score goals.
Linus Ullmark – Goalie – Buffalo Sabers
Estimated Term and Salary: Five years at $5 million to $6 million per year.
Ullmark has been an outstanding goalie on a bad team in his three full seasons with Buffalo. He is big, athletic, and consistent. He has the skills to make a playoff team into a Stanley Cup contender, though he has not been given this opportunity so far.
Likelihood of landing in Seattle: Slim. As stated above, the Kraken have their goalies accounted for and barring a trade, they will start the season with Driedger and Vanecek.
Pius Suter – Forward – Chicago Blackhawks
Estimated Term and Salary: Four years at $3.5 million to $4.5 million per year.
Suter has only one year under his belt in the NHL but showed he belongs with 14 goals over 55 games during the 2020-21 campaign. Prior to the NHL, he played pro hockey in the Swiss league where he led the league in scoring during the 2019-20 season. At just 25 years old, he is on the younger side of the free agents.
Likelihood landing in Seattle: Moderate. He does have a scoring touch and the Kraken need goal scorers. With only one pro season in North America to assess, signing Suter has some risk.
Setting expectations for free agency
Landing a top-10 free agent is rare, and if the Kraken can land one of the forwards from this list, it should be considered a major success. Conversely, if the Kraken do not land a top-10 free agent, there is still plenty of value out there. Signing Jaden Schwartz (this one sounds like it might actually happen), Blake Coleman, or Kyle Palmieri as free agents would be great additions to the Seattle Kraken, and they may not require as big of salaries or terms that some of the top-10 candidates would require.
by Darren Brown | Jul 26, 2021 | Uncategorized
BIG-TIME GUEST ALERT!
This week, John and Darren talk to the first head coach in Seattle Kraken history, Dave Hakstol. The focus of the conversation is to get Dave’s thoughts on what has transpired over the last week, with the Kraken completing their Expansion Draft, then selecting seven prospects in the NHL Entry Draft, including No. 2 overall pick, Matty Beniers. This is a good insider’s look on what’s happening with the team right now.
Aside from the Hakstol interview, John, Andy, and Darren give their own takes on what has been happening around the Kraken and the rest of the league, including their thoughts on where the Seattle roster stands and where it might end up before opening night. Plus, plenty of general NHL trade talk, signing talk, schedule talk, and free agency talk.
Segments include Goalie Gear Corner, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
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by Andy Eide | Jul 26, 2021 | Uncategorized
SEATTLE – The Seattle Kraken announced Monday that the team made qualifying offers to all seven of the restricted free agents on its roster after last week’s Expansion Draft.
The NHL deadline for the offers expired at 3 p.m. Pacific on Monday afternoon. Had Seattle not extended these offers, the seven players would have become unrestricted free agents on Wednesday, free to sign with any team.
Receiving offers were Carsen Twarynski, Kole Lind, Alexander True, Vince Dunn, Will Borgen, Dennis Cholowski, and Cale Fleury. Qualifying offers are one year in length and give Seattle the right of first refusal to any offer sheets that are submitted to the seven players.
Any of the seven could refuse his qualifying offer, but the Kraken would retain the player’s rights and he would then remain a restricted free agent.
Twarynski was selected by the Kraken from the Philadelphia Flyers via the Expansion Draft. He was previously a third-round draft pick of the Flyers in 2016 and split his time last season between the NHL and the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms.
Lind was the Vancouver Canucks pick for the Kraken. The former Kelowna Rocket winger spent most of last season in the AHL before a seven-game call-up at the end of the year.
True was selected from the San Jose Sharks but is most known for his time with the Seattle Thunderbirds. True spent 2014 to 2017 with Seattle, and the Danish center scored the series-winning goal for the Thunderbirds in overtime of Game 6 of the Western Hockey League Championship Series in 2017.
Dunn came to the Kraken from St. Louis, where the 24-year-old defenseman played a big role in the Blues’ Stanley Cup win in 2019. Borgen is a young defenseman from the Buffalo Sabres who has just 14 NHL games under his belt.
Cholowski was the Detroit Red Wings first-round pick during the 2016 NHL Draft and played 32 games with the Portland Winterhawks in 2018 following a trade from the Prince George Cougars. He has played in 104 NHL games, all with the Red Wings.
Fleury comes to the Kraken via the Montreal Canadiens and will join his brother Haydn in Seattle. Fleury is a 22-year-old defenseman who spent last season in the AHL with the Laval Rocket.
NHL free agency opens Wednesday at 9 a.m. Pacific time. According to Cap Friendly, the Kraken will have just over $30 million available to spend on free agents.
Stay tuned to Sound Of Hockey for updates on Seattle’s moves during the free agency period.
