In the last 72 hours there was a flurry of trades that will certainly impact the Expansion Draft protection lists across the NHL. With so many moves in a short time, it’s a bit tough to understand the influence they will have on those lists and who might ultimately be available for the Seattle Kraken. To help you with navigating the moves, here are my initial reactions to the 11 trades that occurred leading up to the Expansion Draft.
July 12th Trade
Trade #1
Los Angeles Kings acquire: Viktor Arvidsson (Forward) Nashville Predators acquire: 2021 Second-Round Pick, 2022 Third-Round Pick
NSH Impact – Predators create space for another forward to be protected. Forecast has Colton Sissons or Rocco Grimaldi now protected. LAK Impact – Arvidsson will be protected. The Kings have a lot of bubble forwards and this will just add one more player to the pool. One of Lias Andersson, Dustin Brown, Blake Lizotte, or Trevor Moore will be exposed in the Expansion Draft that would have otherwise been protected before the trade. Seattle Impact – With Nashville expected to go with a 4-4-1 protection scenario, the Predators were set to expose a decent middle-six forward. That list of forwards got smaller and might be non-existent when this thing is all said and done.
July 14th Trades
Trade #2
Edmonton Oilers acquire: Duncan Keith (Defense) and Tim Soderlund (Forward) Chicago Blackhawks acquire: Caleb Jones (Defense) and Conditional 2022 Third-Round Pick
EDM Impact – None. Oilers had signaled that Jones would be protected, so Keith simply takes Jones’ spot on the protected list. CHI Impact – None. Same as the Oilers, Keith would have been protected and now Jones takes his spot on the protected list. Seattle Impact – None.
July 15th Trade
Trade #3
New Jersey Devils acquire: Ryan Graves (Defense) Colorado Avalanche acquire: Mikhail Maltsev (Forward) and 2021 Second-Round Pick
NJD Impact – Likely means that both PK Subban and Will Butcher will now be exposed in the Expansion Draft. COL Impact – Graves looked like the leading candidate to get picked by the Kraken in the Expansion Draft. This prevents Colorado from losing him in the draft. Seattle Impact – Colorado was one of the most vulnerable teams headed into the Expansion Draft, but with this trade and Erik Johnson waiving his no-movement clause, the options now seem thin. Maybe that will drive Ron Francis and team to dig into the dark arts of the pending unrestricted free agents of Gabriel Landeskog or Philipp Grubauer.
July 16th Trades
Trade #4
Detroit Red Wings acquire: Nick Leddy (Defense) New York Islanders acquire: Richard Panik (Forward) and 2021 Second-Round Pick
DET Impact – Leddy probably bumps Danny DeKeyser off the defensive protected list in Detroit. NYI Impact – Leddy was not projected to be protected, but this did help the Isles clear $4 million in cap space (more on this later). Seattle Impact – Leddy was projected to be a Kraken target, so he is obviously no longer an option. Seattle is probably not interested in DeKeyser.
July 17th Trades
Trade #5
Vancouver Canucks acquire: Jason Dickinson (Forward) Dallas Stars acquire: 2021 Third-Round Pick
VAN Impact – This apparently bumps 23-year-old Kole Lind off the protected lists. DAL Impact – Dickinson was a leading candidate to be selected from Dallas. This move assures they do not lose him for nothing. Seattle Impact – Neither Dallas nor Vancouver was expected to have much to select from in the Expansion Draft. Dickinson was the most likely candidate from the Stars and Lind was expected to be protected. I would anticipate Seattle selecting a pending UFA in Dallas and letting them walk. Lind or a side deal involving Holtby could be the play in Vancouver.
Trade #6
Arizona Coyotes acquire: Josef Korenar (Goalie) and 2022 Second-Round Pick San Jose Sharks acquire: Adin Hill (Goalie) and 2022 Seventh-Round Pick
ARI Impact – Adin Hill looked like the pick from Arizona, so moving him prevents the Coyotes from losing him for nothing. SJS Impact – Korenar was expected to be protected, so Hill will take his protection slot. Seattle Impact – Hill seemed like the pick from Arizona, and now it looks like it will be rather slim pickings for Seattle. Korenar was expected to be protected in San Jose so maybe Seattle selects Korenar from Arizona instead, which seems possible.
Trade #7
Pittsburgh Penguins acquire: Filip Hallander (Forward) and 2023 Seventh-Round Pick Toronto Maple Leafs acquire: Jared McCann (Forward)
PIT Impact – Jared McCann was the likely target from the Penguins in the Expansion Draft. Hallander is exempt, so they do not lose McCann for nothing. TOR Impact – If Toronto goes with the 4-4-1 format, McCann will be exposed but Seattle will need to select McCann or Alexander Kerfoot. Seattle Impact – The net of the trade means that Seattle can only get one of McCann or Kerfoot, but not both, since they can only select one player from the Maple Leafs.
Trade #8
New York Rangers acquire: Nick DeSimone (Defense) and 2022 Fourth-Round Pick Vegas Golden Knights acquire: Brett Howden (Forward)
NYR Impact – Howden was a potential expansion candidate, so the Rangers salvage a draft pick instead of losing him to the Kraken. VGK Impact – No impact. Seattle Impact – Seattle’s options on the New York Rangers just got a little thinner. Expect Colin Blackwell or Kevin Rooney as possible options.
Trade #9
Nashville Predators acquire: Philippe Myers (Defense) and Nolan Patrick (Forward) Philadelphia Flyers acquire: Ryan Ellis (Defense)
NSH Impact – Nashville’s final protection list will be interesting. Moving Ellis might open the door to protect Alexandre Carrier as a fourth defenseman, or the team could go back to a 7-3-1 format and protect some of their younger forwards in Tanner Jeannot, Yakov Trenin, and/or Rem Pitlick. The Preds had a plan that involved moving one of their top defensemen out, and we will see what that plan is when their final protection list comes out. PHI Impact – Nolan Patrick was projected as the seventh forward to be protected by the Flyers, which will now move someone like James van Riemsdyk or Nicolas Aube-Kubel onto the protected list. Seattle Impact – This is tough to read without seeing Nashville’s final protected list, but the Flyers are still expected to expose Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek, and either James van Riemsdyk or Nicolas Aube-Kubel, so there are still decent options in Philly.
Trade #10
Nashville Predators acquire: Cody Glass (Forwards) Vegas Golden Knights acquire: Nolan Patrick (Forwards)
NSH Impact – The Nolan Patrick era was over in Nashville before it even began. Patrick would have needed to be protected or exposed, while Glass is exempt from the Expansion Draft, so the Preds will get one more spot to protect. VGK Impact – None since they do not participate in the Expansion Draft. Seattle Impact – Minimal since Patrick was never really a consideration out of Nashville.
Trade #11
Arizona Coyotes acquire: Andrew Ladd (Forward), 2021 Second-Round Pick, 2022 Second-Round Pick, and 2023 Third-Round Pick New York Islanders acquire: “Future Consideration”
ARI Impact – Nothing since Seattle would never have considered Andrew Ladd. NYI Impact – Frees up cap space. Seattle Impact – On the surface nothing, but between this trade and the Nick Leddy trade, the Islanders cleared $8.5 million in cap space. The cap situation in New York would have otherwise been a vulnerability that Seattle could have taken advantage of in the Expansion Draft.
With the Expansion Draft a mere five days away, the Seattle Kraken’s goaltender selection is anyone’s guess. There are a handful of quality options out there but still no clear favorite at this point.
The rules require the Kraken to select at least three goalies in the Expansion Draft. There are roughly 30 options for the Kraken to choose from on Wednesday, so to make sense of the options, I have tiered all the likely goalies available.
Expansion Draft goalie tiers definitions
Bona fide starter – These are goalies that are proven starters in the league and can still bear the weight of 50+ regular-season games.
Veteran platoon – This is a group that consists of goalies over 29 years old that are best utilized if they can share the goaltending duties at roughly a 50/50 split at this point in their career.
Potential, but with risk – These goaltenders have shown potential to play at a high level but have not played a whole season as a starter or are just breaking into the league. They show promise, but it is unknown if their play is sustainable as full-time starters in the NHL.
Solid backup – Players in this category have proven to be reliable backups in the NHL. They could be used in an expanded role in case of injuries to other goalies on the team but should not be relied upon for extended workloads.
Here is a look at the goalies most likely available by category.
Bona fide starters
Linus Ullmark (BUF) and Philipp Grubauer (COL) are the cream of the crop of available goalies in the Expansion Draft. Both are pending unrestricted free agents with no guarantee they will sign with Seattle, but one of them may be worth pursuing during the exclusive negotiating window.
Grubauer will more than likely attract more suitors in free agency and might be a bit of an overpay for a goalie that will turn 30 next season.
Ullmark, if unprotected, is the most desirable goaltender available to the Seattle Kraken. He is a bit younger than Grubauer and has one of the best high/medium/low danger save percentages at five-on-five across all available goalies. Seattle might be willing to sign him to a longer term. Kraken goalie scout Andrew Allen has a lot of familiarity with Ullmark as well from their time together in Buffalo.
Cam Talbot (MIN) is the only other candidate in this group that would have a reasonable shot at playing for Seattle next year. At 34 years old, he carries some risk, and we still don’t know for sure if he or Kaapo Kahkonen will get protected.
Frederik Andersen (TOR), also a pending UFA, dealt with injuries this year and probably carries too much risk at this point in his career.
Tuukka Rask (BOS) is a pending UFA and will likely re-sign with the Boston Bruins.
Matt Murray (OTT) has had two years of below-average numbers, and the Kraken will have better options out there.
Potential, but with risk
This category gets a lot of media coverage because these goalies showcased well over the last season. The Kraken would be taking a big gamble if they are expecting a goalie from this category to get most of the starts for the 2021-22 season.
Of all these goalies, Adin Hill (ARI) is the most likely candidate to be drafted in the Expansion Draft. Hill is a big goaltender who is just starting to break into the NHL as a regular with 19 games played in the 2020-21 season. There are a few scenarios where he is not even available. The projected protected goalie in Arizona is Darcy Kuemper, who has been rumored to be on the trading block for the last two offseasons. Arizona may trade him before the rosters are locked on Saturday, or they may choose to protect Hill over Kuemper, since Kuemper only has one more year remaining on his contract.
Chris Driedger (FLA) is a trendy pick from the Florida Panthers, but he is a pending UFA and only has 35 games played over the last two seasons. He could pan out, but he could also be the next Scott Darling.
Vitek Vanecek had strong numbers in his first year in the NHL. He played 37 games for the Capitals with a .908 save percentage. There are questions if his long-term upside matches those good numbers, making him a pick with risk.
Joey Daccord (OTT) and Anton Forsberg (OTT) could be even riskier options. Both goalies had limited views playing for a relatively bad team. Forsberg had a heck of a journey this past season, as he bounced across three different teams before ultimately finding a home in Ottawa late in the season.
Veteran platoon
Having a veteran platoon goalie is not a bad bet for year one of the franchise. One of the two can probably do some heavy lifting if the other falters, or they could be a stable support system for some of the younger goalies just breaking into the league.
31-year-old Jake Allen (MON) could fit the bill relatively well. Allen is a good backup goalie that can get a healthy dose of games throughout a season, but he is not a goalie that you want as your primary goalie. He would be a great fit to pair with a younger goalie such as Adin Hill or Vitek Vanecek.
David Rittich (CGY) could also be an option, but he’s an unrestricted free agent.
Solid backup
The only scenario in which I see Seattle drafting a goalie from this category is if their primary goalie is Ullmark, Grubauer, or Talbot. With a solid starting netminder, the Kraken would just need a decent backup that can give the starter a day off from time to time.
Still anybody’s guess
There are a lot of variables at play for the Kraken’s goaltender selections, which still makes forecasting the selections extremely challenging. It is also important to realize that the team could make a post-draft trade or sign another goaltender in free agency to shore up the position. Who Seattle ends up choosing to man its inaugural goalcrease remains anybody’s guess.
It’s been a long road. Dating back to our NHLtoSeattle days, we’ve been daydreaming, prognosticating, and even occasionally arguing about what will happen on Wednesday, July 21. Despite all the things that have happened in the world the past couple of years, many of which certainly could have derailed this process, here we are, Seattle. We are standing at the precipice of the Kraken—OUR Seattle Kraken—finally fielding a team for the first time ever.
Come Wednesday evening, the organization will have 30 players from which it can create the bulk of its inaugural roster. In case you somehow missed the news, the festivities will kick off from Gas Works Park on the north end of Lake Union at 3:30 p.m. Pacific that day, with national TV coverage beginning at 5 p.m. on ESPN2.
It is a private, ticketed event, but even if you aren’t able to get in, you can boat, sail, paddleboard, kayak, swim, diaper float (my personal favorite mode of water floating), hydrofoil… whatever it takes to get yourself in on the action. A stage will be erected on the shore of the lake, and a massive floating screen will be propped up on a barge to show the proceedings. So get out on the water, and you should be able to—at least in some way—be a part of this historic event.
LET’S F***IN’ GO, KRAKEN!
Expansion Draft protection pictures becoming more clear
It’s no surprise that there has been a flurry of trades, buyouts, and signings this week in preparation for the Expansion Draft. General managers across the NHL are making their last moves to prepare their teams for next week’s league-wide ceremonial sacrifice to the hockey gods (and by “hockey gods,” we of course mean the Seattle Kraken).
The biggest bombshell came from my own Minnesota Wild, who opted to buy out the contracts of not just Zach Parise, but also the still very effective Ryan Suter, Parise’s partner in crime. The move means that Minnesota can now certainly protect Matt Dumba, making Carson Soucy, Kaapo Kahkonen, or Victor Rask (I personally doubt that last one will be the choice) the most likely targets, assuming the Wild do protect Cam Talbot over Kahkonen.
Meanwhile, the Florida Panthers—who arguably had the worst go of any team in the league in the Vegas Expansion Draft—bought out ironman defenseman Keith Yandle and re-signed Anthony Duclair. The Avalanche traded away an obvious Expansion Draft candidate in Ryan Graves, and Dallas’ Ben Bishop, Colorado’s Erik Johnson, and Buffalo’s Jeff Skinner all waived their no-movement clauses to give their respective teams an additional protection slot.
More such news will certainly trickle in over the next two days, as teams are required to submit their protection lists on Saturday.
This is going to be an incredibly fun few days; a period of time that we have been patiently awaiting for literal years. We just hope everybody has a good time.
*HOT TAKE ALERT!*
By the way, this is a complete guess, but since the Kraken will be naming their players and are allegedly trying to get at least some of them to attend the Expansion Draft selection show in person, wouldn’t this be a great time to give us our first glimpse of the team’s jerseys? Again, no insider info here. It’s just a guess that I’m putting in writing so that I can either be lauded or shamed for a correct/incorrect guess in a few days. We shall see.
Matiss Kivlenieks memorial draws tears, laughs, and Torts
We at Sound Of Hockey were devastated to learn of the passing of 24-year-old Columbus goaltender Matiss Kivlenieks on July 4 after an errant firework hit him in the chest at a party in Michigan. His memorial service was held on Thursday.
Per Emily Kaplan of ESPN, fellow Blue Jackets netminder Elvis Merzlikins said that Kivlenieks “died a hero,” protecting Merzlikins, his pregnant wife, and several other people in attendance.
Goaltender coach and close friend Manny Legace reportedly shared stories of his close bond with Kivlenieks and joked that even John Tortorella was in attendance at the funeral, which was a big deal because, “He hates goalies!”
RIP Kivi. You’re gone way too soon, but the hockey community will never forget you.
Around the boards
Robert Morris University has reversed course on its plans for demolishing its men’s and women’s hockey programs. You may recall that the school put out one of the worst press releases in the history of press releases to declare the programs dead, but the regents have now stated that as long as they can raise $7 million over the next five years, they can keep the programs alive. I, for one, really hate this tactic of forcing hockey programs to raise millions of dollars to survive budget cuts from schools that have promised scholarships and four years of Division I hockey to their athletes, but that’s just me.
It was announced in May that the Utica Comets, Vancouver’s AHL affiliate, would be moving to Abbotsford, British Columbia, in time for the start of the 2021-22 season. What wasn’t known before Thursday was what the top minor league club for the Canucks would be called going forward. Now we know that the team will be named… [drumroll]… the Canucks! That’s right, the Abbotsford Canucks, ladies and gentlemen! How original! Sarcasm aside, their jerseys will be green and will prominently feature the famed Johnny Canuck, which we at SOH wholeheartedly support.
Speaking of jerseys and logos, the WHL’s Vancouver Giants and Portland Winterhawks both revealed some new branding this week. Vancouver has a very sharp new black, gold, and red uniform, with a rather dashing and burly gentleman’s face for the crest. Portland showed off its new logo, which replaces the controversial Blackhawks-esque Native American silhouette that it had used for the entirety of its 45-year history. Instead, the Winterhawks will now sport a hawk with an image of Mount Hood cleverly factored in.
We do have one question about the Giants’ logo, though. How are we to know that the face on the jerseys is actually that of a giant? There’s nothing around it to give it scale, so as far as we’re concerned, they’re just the Vancouver Bearded Faces.
Palate cleansers
Earlier this week, the Tampa Bay Lightning held their second Stanley Cup boat parade in as many years. Two of the highlights were this very minor mishap…
The Stanley Cup got bent in Tampa today. Has to be repaired in MONTREAL! Oh good Lord! This should make a good headline in the Canadian press. pic.twitter.com/EmWy0gsKtj
Finally, let’s give it up for friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast and former Seattle Thunderbirds equipment manager Jason Berger, who apparently brings the f***in’ heat when it’s needed most.
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
SEATTLE – The Seattle Kraken have games on the schedule. Friday morning, the 32nd NHL franchise released its preseason schedule for the team’s inaugural season.
Starting Sept. 26, the Kraken will play six preseason contests, three home and three away, against the Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, and Calgary Flames. Seattle’s Climate Pledge Arena will not be completed and available for preseason games – although the team confirmed Friday that the arena will be open in time for the regular season opener – so the home games will be held in three WHL arenas within Washington State.
On Sept. 26, the Kraken will host the Vancouver Canucks in the Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, home of the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs. Seattle will next play the Edmonton Oilers on Oct. 1 at Angel of the Winds Arena, the home rink for the Everett Silvertips. The next night the Calgary Flames will visit the accesso ShoWare Center in Kent to play in the home of the Seattle Thunderbirds.
The Kraken will be on the road on Sept. 28 in Edmonton, Sept. 29 in Calgary, and Oct. 5 in Vancouver. Those games will be played in the regular NHL arenas of the home teams.
“We are so grateful to the men and women who have worked tirelessly to build Climate Pledge Arena in the most extraordinary of circumstances and thank Mortenson and all the sub-contractors,” Tod Leiweke, CEO of the Seattle Kraken said via press release. “The arena is on track to host our first regular-season home game in mid-October, but we have made the decision to play our three inaugural preseason games at three outstanding local arenas. This gives us an opportunity to partner with the WHL teams, celebrate hockey across our region and grow this beautiful game. We couldn’t be more excited for these games and then to open Climate Pledge Arena.”
The Seattle Kraken will donate a portion of ticket revenue to One Roof Foundation with a goal of raising over $500,000 to expand youth access to hockey. The Kraken are working with the Thunderbirds, the Silvertips, and the Chiefs, along with the Tri-City Americans and the Portland Winterhawks, to grow the game across the region.
Kraken season ticket holders were notified by the team that they would receive a credit for preseason games that originally were planned to be played in Climate Pledge Arena. The credit is to appear on ticket holders’ accounts by July 26.
While we don’t know the rosters or lineups for these preseason games as of yet, the schedule opens the door for homecomings of a couple players with ties to the Northwest. When Edmonton plays in Everett it will be a chance for former Seattle Thunderbird Ethan Bear to appear in the region again. Bear played for Seattle from 2013 through 2017. He is Seattle’s all-time leader in goals by a defenseman and was a key member of the Thunderbirds 2017 WHL Championship team. Bear was a fifth-round pick of the Oilers in 2015 and has been a regular in their lineup the past two seasons.
Having appeared in the ShoWare Center for his last WHL game with the Everett Silvertips this past spring, Calgary’s Dustin Wolf will make his return when the Flames visit Kent. Wolf was with the Silvertips from 2017 through 2021 and was twice named WHL Goalie of the Year and once CHL Goalie of the Year. The Flames selected Wolf in the seventh round of the 2019 NHL Draft and the upcoming season will be his first in pro hockey.
The full NHL regular season schedule is expected to be released prior to the July 21 NHL Expansion Draft.
One of the most important pieces to any hockey team is a high-end defenseman. Every successful club has at least one guy who can move the puck, join the rush, and pile up points from the back end. In a class that features a number of such defenders, Luke Hughes is among the best, and there’s an outside chance that the Seattle Kraken call his name at the NHL Entry Draft on July 23.
If the last name Hughes sounds familiar, it should. Luke is the youngest of the Hughes brothers, all of whom were drafted with top-ten picks. Quinn Hughes was selected by the Vancouver Canucks with the seventh overall pick in 2018, while the New Jersey Devils took Jack Hughes first overall in 2019.
That is quite the track record for the Hughes clan and the case could be made that they are the new American hockey family – move aside Tkachuks.
Like Quinn, Luke is an exciting defenseman who can skate and control the puck. He’s had the fortune of watching and learning from both of his NHL brothers. That has been a big boost for Luke during his NHL Draft season.
“They kind of taught me going into the year that you got to be ready for everything,” Hughes said during the NHL’s Top Prospect media availability this week. “You’ve got to stay level-minded and you can’t get too high or low all through the year. And I think that really applies to me this year with all the COVID implications and getting shut down and quarantined at numerous times throughout the year. So, that was one big piece of advice they gave me.”
Hughes spent the season playing with the United States National Team Development Program (USNTDP) but suffered a lacerated tendon in his foot that kept him from playing in any postseason tournaments.
He is healthy now and hoping to continue following in his siblings’ footsteps. Both Quinn and Jack played for the USNTDP on their way to the NHL and Luke will follow Quinn’s path as he has committed to play for the University of Michigan next season,
“I’m super excited to go to Michigan,” Hughes said. “I think you guys know we’re going to be a really good team next year and hopefully we can go pretty far and try to win it all. So, I’m super excited for my time and I think watching my brother Quinn go through it and how much he grew up as a player, but more as a person just to meet really smart people and make longtime friends… I’m really excited for that.”
Michigan’s Owen Power, Matty Beniers, and Kent Johnson will all be selected early in this year’s draft and all could potentially return to play for the Wolverines next season. Add a Luke Hughes to that mix and the Frozen Four will be in reach.
But that’s for next season. What we care about is the draft and where Hughes will be selected.
“I think every year you’re trying to get better at something, but you know, right now I’m trying to just work on all aspects of my game so I can dominate at the next level,” Hughes said.
Defenseman Luke Hughes is a fantastic skater and puck handler which could lead him to be drafted high in July’s NHL Draft. (USA Hockey photo)
Luke Hughes by the numbers
Listed at 6-foot-2 and 176 pounds, Hughes spent last year with the USNTDP U18 club, which also gave him time competing in the USHL. He appeared in 38 games with the U18 team and scored six goals while adding 28 assists for 34 points.
He burst on the scene and started garnering attention during the 2018-19 season with the Little Caesars 15U team. Hughes posted monster, video-game-like numbers there, piling up 83 points, and 22 goals, in 71 games.
While an injury kept him from participating in the U18 Championships this spring, he did play for the US in the U17’s the prior season, scoring a goal and three assists in six games.
He says that the injury that kept him out of the U18’s is healing, and he’s set to attend the US’s World Junior Summer Showcase. It’s expected that he would make that roster and appear at next winter’s tournament, again following in his brothers’ footsteps.
“I’ve been skating for five weeks now, and I’ve been working out for like eight or nine, so I feel really good,” Hughes said about his injury. “I’m almost 100 percent… I finished rehab and there’s no problem with the toe. It feels great and I’ll be ready to go.”
What the scouts say about Luke Hughes
Hughes has been consistently ranked among the top five prospects for the upcoming draft. NHL Central Scouting has him slotted as the fourth-best North American skater. He’s been ranked as high as third and as low as 11th in the various online draft rankings.
Scouts focus on his skating and ability to handle the puck. He’s the type of skater that will draw defenders to him which frees up space on the ice for his teammates. Hughes has the ability to find those open guys with the puck and make those around him better.
“Look at what Quinn Hughes has done for the Vancouver Canucks, then you say, oh, there’s his brother Luke, who’s also in this draft,” Hockey Sense’s Chris Peters told the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. “(Luke) is 6-foot-2, where Quinn is like 5-foot-10. Luke skates very similarly to Quinn. He doesn’t have the straight-ahead speed that Quinn does yet but that could come. (Luke) is not quite as dynamic offensively either, but he is an offensive defenseman, he scores points, and he gets pucks through to the net. He makes plays.”
Hughes is not ranked as high as someone like Owen Power, but there are those who believe he ultimately has the most upside of the class.
He is confident on the ice with the puck and off it.
“I think my three biggest strengths are my hockey sense, my skating, and compete level,” Hughes said about his game. “I can play in all situations. I can play the power play I can play the PK. You know, I can defend the cycle, defend the rush, and net-front. I’m really poised with the puck in my transition game.”
Luke Hughes on film
The attributes that Hughes and scouts alike use to define his game can be found on film.
In this clip from play in the USHL, Hughes demonstrates his puck management and poise as he draws two defenders to him up high. His on-ice vision allows him to see the teammate that is left open, and he makes a sure pass that sets up a great look at the net.
Love this little bit of work by Luke Hughes. Great catch, draws pressure from two forwards at the top of the zone. Manipulates the defenders, throws a pick and creates space for his D partner to gain inside ice. How many defenders just shoot off the pass? Love to see it @FCHockeypic.twitter.com/TM70enZoZ0
In this entertaining shift, he pinches in and gets the entire defense chasing him as he controls the puck, shows off some edge work, and eventually spins a defender right off his skates to free up space for himself.
Controlling the puck to exit the zone is a key skill for a defenseman. Here is an example of Hughes retrieving it in his own end and beating two forecheckers by himself with poise to rush the puck to the opposing blue line.
Watching some USNTDP U17 hockey from early December. Stumbled upon this clip of Luke Hughes (2021). Hughes is so good. pic.twitter.com/LAs3V7sHWQ
Will the Seattle Kraken take Luke Hughes with the second overall pick?
The prevailing thought is that Seattle will pick Matty Beniers or Owen Power at number two, depending on what the Buffalo Sabres do with the first pick.
But that assessment is speculation based on the latest NHL Draft rankings around the internet. They have Hughes pegged as the fourth- or fifth-best option. Of course, none of that matters. If Seattle’s amateur scouting team and Ron Francis feel that Hughes’ potential is the highest of this class, then don’t be shocked if they select him.
Francis drafted defensemen with his first pick three of the four drafts he had while with the Carolina Hurricanes and with the number of quality blueliners in this year’s class, he could do so again by taking Luke Hughes to come away with a cornerstone of the future.
The New Jersey Devils have the fourth overall pick and if Seattle passes would love to team up Luke Hughes with his brother Jack, whom they drafted first overall in 2019.
“My brother, you know, clearly wants me to be there and that’d be super cool to play with him,” Luke Hughes said. “I’d love that but at the same time, it’s 32 great teams out there and I’d be happy to go to any one of those teams.”
“Secondary scoring” is a term that is thrown around as an essential ingredient to a team’s success in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I have heard it for years and have largely accepted it. For this week’s Data Dump, I want to dig into the numbers around “secondary scoring” to evaluate if it truly is important or just some playoff lore that we like to talk about.
There is no consensus definition for secondary scoring, but the general thought is that it is the scoring beyond a team’s top line or top goal scorers. Think of it as a distribution of goal scoring.
You do not have to look far in this year’s playoffs to find a good example of “secondary scoring.” For the Tampa Bay Lightning, Tyler Johnson scored two goals in Game 3 and Blake Coleman scored in Game 2 and 3 of the Stanley Cup Final. Neither of these players would be considered a top goal scorer for the Lightning, but it is not totally surprising when they do score.
Secondary scoring by the numbers
Figuring out how to evaluate secondary scoring is a challenge. After several exploratory iterations, I landed on what is the percentage of the team’s goals scored for the top-three goal scorers on the team. The lower the percentage of goals scored by these primary goal scorers, the more secondary scoring you are getting from other players.
Here is a look at the average percentage of goals scored by the top-three goal scorers in the Stanley Cup Playoffs based on the round the team reached in the postseason. Note that I excluded the first-round playoff games since the sample size of games played per team is relatively small.
Based on the visual above, teams with more secondary scoring (lower percentage in the chart) tend to go deeper in the playoffs. However, just because you have more secondary scoring, does not automatically mean a good playoff run.
Here is a look at the team detail over the last four years.
This year, Winnipeg only saw 35% of its scoring coming from their top-three goal scorers and last year, Philadelphia saw 34% of its scoring from its top three, but neither team advanced past the second-round.
It is important to consider context when looking at numbers, particularly for the teams with a small sample size. In Winnipeg’s case, Mark Scheifele, tied for second in scoring in the playoffs for the Jets, was suspended for the last three games against Montreal and therefore did not have an opportunity to score more goals. Had Scheifele played and scored, the percentage of top-three goals would have gone up, while the secondary scoring would have gone down.
Player detail
Here is a look at the player detail that has made up the top-three scorers by team by year and the percentage of teams’ total goals.
If you look at Vegas this year, Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and Jonathan Marchessault accounted for just 30 percent, but if you followed the Montreal-Vegas series, you would realize that those players came up relatively empty in that series with a total of one goal over the six games. The 30 percent is not really an indicator of the secondary scoring but more likely a lack of scoring from the top-three goal scorers.
Except for Tampa Bay in 2020, the Stanley Cup Final teams’ (in red) top-three goal scorers all account for less than the average of 43 percent. What stands out to me is that teams with a much greater dependency on their top-three goal scorers: Boston-2021, Boston-2020, Islanders-2019, and Pittsburgh-2018 all failed to make it past the semi-final round of the playoffs.
Conclusion
The only conclusion I can reasonably come up with based on this quick analysis is that you cannot be overly dependent on your top-three goal scorers and expect playoff success.
Although it may appear that secondary scoring is a component of playoff success, there are other factors involved. Goalies, injuries, special teams, etc. are all factors that can contribute to a team’s success. We would need to identify all the contributing factors to determine just how important secondary scoring is when we consider all these components. We could also expand the scope of the analysis to include regular season to determine how the distribution of scoring may predict playoff secondary scoring.
How would you approach understanding secondary scoring? Put your thoughts in the comments section or send me a message on twitter.
