A week has gone by since our last update, and the Seattle Kraken have not maintained the point percentage they needed to stay in the wild card race. They are not mathematically eliminated yet, but according to MoneyPuck.com they have a 0.6-percent chance to make the playoffs at this point. The Kraken went 0-3-0, extending their losing streak to a depressing six games (0-5-1). They also gave valuable points to both wild card teams, Nashville and Vegas, in the process.
A devastating week for the Kraken
Mar. 16 – 4-1 loss against the Nashville Predators. The Kraken looked outmatched in this game, but provided some hope by tying the game 1-1 in the third, only to surrender three straight goals.
Mar. 18 – 6-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres. The night started off well with Jordan Eberle scoring on the first shot of the game. But Tage Thompson matched this feat, scoring on Buffalo’s first shot with a snipe under the bar. Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch add two more goals to put Buffalo ahead for good, all prior to the six-minute mark of the first period. That was enough for Joey Daccord to get the hook with one save on four shots. Ouch.
Mar. 21 – 3-1 loss against the Vegas Golden Knights. The Kraken got outplayed in this game, but Philipp Grubauer stood on his head and kept the game close. It took late-game heroics by Vegas to eke out a win with former Seattle Thunderbirds forward, Keegan Kolesar, scoring the go-ahead goal with under two minutes remaining.
**Author’s note: Even though the Kraken suffered their sixth loss in a row, another Washington team won Thursday. The Washington State Cougars men’s basketball team is dancing and defeated Drake University 66-61 to advance to the round of 32. Go Cougs!!!
Wild card race
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings went 3-1-0 during the past week, including two shutouts. They beat Chicago twice and wild card hopeful Minnesota once but lost to the playoff-bound Dallas Stars. The Kings are on pace for 99 points, putting them almost certainly in the playoffs.
Nashville Predators
The Predators have extended their unbeaten streak, which is now at 16 games, going 3-0-0 during the past week. Watching the Kraken versus Nashville game made me realize that Nashville is a better team than I originally gave them credit for. With Juuse Saros between the pipes, Ryan McDonagh and Roman Josi locking down the blue line, and Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Gustuv Nyquist up front, give this team a chance to make some noise in the playoffs.
The Predators are on pace for 101 points and look like a lock for the first wild card spot.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are still struggling, going 1-2-0 during the past week (of course, the one win came against Seattle). The St. Louis Blues and the Minnesota Wild are nipping at the heels of Vegas and are only four and five points out of a wild card spot respectively. The pressure is on for the Golden Knights, who have games in hand but need to start winning if they hope to make it to the postseason. Vegas is on pace for 96 points.
Team categorizations
Teams in bold have a game remaining this season against the Kraken.
The week ahead
The Kraken have four games for the week of Mar. 22-28, all against Tanker teams, so an end to the current losing streak hopefully is close. Seattle has one more road game and will then come back for a four-game homestand.
Mar. 22 – Arizona Coyotes – Away (Tanker)
Mar. 24 – Montreal Canadiens – Home (Tanker)
Mar. 26 – Anaheim Ducks – Home (Tanker) (Jared McCann Bobblehead night)
Mar. 28 – Anaheim Ducks – Home (Tanker)
Kraken playoff hopes
While not officially eliminated from the postseason, the Kraken are trending towards 82-88 points, which gives them zero chance of making it through. The Calgary Flames, St. Louis Blues, and Minnesota Wild are all ahead of the Kraken in the standings. With Vegas trending towards 96 points, the Kraken would need four teams to falter, and they would need to basically win out.
With three losses this week, a dagger has been thrust into the Kraken’s playoff hopes. The 0.6-percent that MoneyPuck gives the Kraken is because they have the easiest schedule remaining in the NHL, with eight games remaining against Tanker teams.
What’s next for the Kraken?
With the Kraken out of the playoff picture, what is next for them? Could bringing up Shane Wright for some more NHL experience be in the cards? General manager Ron Francis has indicated Wright is in a good place in Coachella Valley, which leads us to believe he might remain with the Firebirds to fully contribute to the rest of the Firebirds season and playoff run. But bringing him up for a few games wouldn’t hurt.
There is also the issue that if they bring Wright up to the NHL, and he plays seven games (10 total on the season), the Kraken would burn a year on his entry-level contract. If he plays fewer games than that with the Kraken, his contract would slide, meaning Seattle would get to keep him for entry-level dollars for three more years.
The expectation for next season is that Wright will step into Alex Wennberg’s vacated second-line center role. But Sound Of Hockey‘s own Darren Brown and John Barr interviewed the humble 2022 fourth overall draft pick, and Wright believes he will step into a bottom-six role with the Kraken and have to earn a top-six spot through his play and building trust with the coaches.
Seattle currently is 25th in the NHL standings as of Mar. 21 with a six-point gap to the 26th team, the Montreal Canadiens. There is not much of a benefit to tanking at this point, because the difference between the eight overall pick and, say, the 12th overall pick is not a huge difference in talent. I would rather the Kraken focus on winning and building that mindset into the team’s culture.
A day that began with the rousing news that Kraken forward Jordan Eberle had re-signed with the Seattle Kraken for two more years ended with disappointment as Seattle dropped a tight-checking contest to the visiting Winnipeg Jets, 3-0. Both teams struggled to possess the puck through the neutral zone and establish offensive zone time for much of the first 30 minutes, but the Jets seized control over the back half of the game, controlling the pace and frequently hemming the Kraken in their own zone.
“We just didn’t have a lot of energy tonight,” Kraken coach Dave Hakstol said postgame. “We saw that momentum really turn in the second period.” He noted the Kraken “couldn’t find that burst of energy to get us going on the right track [again].”
The Kraken had a handful of dangerous looks throughout the game, but could not convert. On the other hand, Winnipeg’s stars delivered in the third period. First, Mark Schiefle beat Joey Daccord from the low slot at 7:15 in the period. After that, Adam Lowry knocked home a point-black rebound shot at 11:28 in the final frame. Winnipeg then added an empty-netter to cap off the win.
The Kraken entered Monday night with points in eight-of-ten games, a run that had started to close the gap in the Pacific Division.
Even with this loss, Seattle remains just six points out of playoff position. But the schedule is starting to run out. Here are our three takeaways leaving Climate Pledge Arena after this one.
Takeaway #1: Schwartz injured
Jaden Schwartz left in the first period with an apparent injury. We didn’t see anything in Schwartz’s last shift to indicate what the injury might be, but he was grimacing as the puck dropped following an icing call midway through the shift.
Kraken coach Dave Hakstol didn’t have an update on Schwartz postgame, but Hakstol was quick to disclaim the loss of Schwartz as a turning point in the game. “What [Schwartz] does specifically at the net front obviously is important [in] a tight-check, defensive-style game,” Hakstol said. “But that’s not the difference in the hockey game.”
The Kraken do not play again until Tuesday, so the team will have time to evaluate Schwartz’s injury and the forward will have time to recuperate. With luck this relatively light stretch in the schedule will minimize the time he misses. But if the team is without Schwartz for several games going forward, the depth of the team–already stretched by the Alex Wennberg trade–will be further tested. This is a tough position to be in with every point so important.
Takeaway #2: Kraken ran out of gas in the second half of the game
This one started as a low-event slog. Both teams struggled to create offense. A mix of tight defensive play and unforced giveaways were to blame on both sides.
Winnipeg was quicker to right the ship in the second period though. While Seattle escaped the second without conceding a goal, Winnipeg was driving play toward Seattle’s end more consistently. Seattle generated just four shots on goal to Winnipeg’s nine.
“You look at the long change in the second period. It’s a big deal when you start with the puck and fresh legs versus defending and just doing your best to get off the ice. You’re not setting up the next line and [you’re] not putting that line in the best spot when they have to come out and defend,” Hakstol said.
Ultimately, Winnipeg carried that second period momentum over into the third period and the Kraken couldn’t find a response. Winnipeg outshot Seattle 14-5 in the final period and outscored Seattle 3-0.
“We didn’t execute well enough to push momentum our way,” Hakstol said. “I’m not disappointed with our effort. Our guys worked. It was a night where I just didn’t feel like we had a lot of gas in the tank.”
Takeaway #3: Kraken need to turn the page quickly
The team entered the game aglow in the optimism of Eberle’s re-signing and a successful road trip. It exited on a notably somber note after a flat effort.
When asked how he’d approach the team to make sure it still has the belief that it can push for the playoffs, Hakstol kept it simple. He said the key was to “just go back to work tomorrow. There’s no magic to it.”
Tomas Tatar had a similar message, saying the team’s goals were still out there for them. The team just needed to turn the page. “We know what we have to do to get in. This was just one game. We put it behind us.” He noted that the next game against Las Vegas is “huge” because it’s against the team “they want to catch” in the standings.
Tatar is right, but time is running short on this Kraken season. The team needs the turnaround to start Tuesday against Las Vegas.
Andre Burakovsky has missed more games due to injury than he has played for the Seattle Kraken. As of March 6, he has missed 80 games and played in 78 over these past two seasons.
Burakovsky came to the Kraken a year after winning his second Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 2021-22. The winger signed a reasonable five-year deal worth $27.5 million the day free agency opened in 2022, saying at the time he appreciated how badly the Kraken seemed to want him. Upon his arrival, the Swede delivered right away, leading the team with 39 points through 49 games before suffering a season-ending groin injury on Feb. 7, 2023.
Upper, lower, and undisclosed injuries, oh my!
That groin injury eventually required surgery and caused Burakovsky to miss the remainder of the regular season and all of the playoffs in his first campaign with the Kraken. In his second season, some rust was expected, but the injury bug bit Burakovsky four more times (so far) in 2023-24.
Oct. 21 – Upper-body injury – missed 20 games
Dec. 7 – Upper-body injury – missed nine games
Jan. 13 – Lower-body injury – missed four games
Feb. 29 – Lower-body injury – missed two games
Since the 2019-20 season, he has missed games due to injury 12 times. To start the current season, the left winger looked out of place and only registered two assists before landing back on injured reserve after getting thrown into the end boards by New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba.
When he returned from that injury on Dec. 7, Burakovsky played only six minutes before slamming into the same end boards after a hit by New Jersey Devils defenseman Kevin Bahl.
You had to feel for the guy, as he dealt with injury after injury. It took him until the calendar turned to 2024 to register is first goal of the season, and then 19 more games for his second goal, the game-winner in a 4-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday.
All that said, for a $5.5-million AAV, more is expected than 10 points in 29 games, and the Kraken need Burakovsky to perform to be successful. Did his goal Tuesday finally break him out of the funk?
Playing statistics
As the injuries piled up, so did Burakovsky’s rotating mix of linemates. Coach Dave Hakstol moved him around the second, third, and fourth lines to see if he could find chemistry and spark his offense.
Digging into his playing statistics, there is reason for optimism that Burakovsky has found himself, despite the brief two-game hiatus before this week’s road trip. Burakovsky has a great shot, and with the exception of this season, has consistently out-scored his expected goals, according to MoneyPuck.
Focusing on his shooting statistics, there is an interesting trend that popped out. With only two goals on the year, you might assume that the two-time Stanley Cup champion might be shooting the puck less. In actuality, Burakovsky is shooting more than at any point in his career at 17.35 shot attempts per 60 minutes. Shot attempts include shots on goal, shots that are blocked, and shots that miss the net.
The number of Burakovsky’s shots that have been blocked is what pops off the page, with 7.35 of his shot attempts getting blocked per 60. This is almost double the average rate at which his shots have been blocked over his career (3.9).
Burakovsky leads the Kraken at 1.72 blocked shot attempts per game. Oliver Bjorkstrand is second in blocked shot attempts per game with 1.65, and Jared McCann is third with 1.34.
Eye test
From the eye test, Burakovsky likes to carry the puck into the zone. He is good at stickhandling in tight space and uses that to get out of difficult spots and make quick shots. What the statistics on blocked shot attempts point to is that defenses have figured this out and collapse on him, resulting in more blocked shots. Whilst playing for the Avalanche and Capitals, both of those teams had true star power in Alexander Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. This allowed Burakovsky to fly under the radar, with defenses focused elsewhere.
When Burakovsky jumped out to the team lead in scoring in his first season in Seattle, he may have signaled to opposing teams that they should focus on him more.
Andre Burakovsky
Settling in
When a player goes nearly eight months without game action, getting back into the swing of things can understandably take time. It is unfortunate that it has taken almost the whole season, but Burakovsky does finally seem to be back on track.
Hakstol has noticed and praised the forward recently and increased his ice time from 13-14 minutes per game on average to 15-17 minutes over his last eight outings. With this increased time, Burakovsky has gotten his second goal, a game-winner against the Jets, and he also has three assists during that stretch.
Meanwhile, his shot attempts have increased from 3.55 to 5.85 per game. Burakovsky’s improvement has been visually evident, and he has looked like the best Kraken forward at times. This all points to an improvement on his offensive production the rest of the season.
“It felt very good,” Burakovsky said about scoring Tuesday. “It’s been a battle with all the injuries and all the missed time, and I think I’ve been playing some really good hockey lately, creating a lot and skating a lot… It was nice to finally see one go in. I almost forgot what it feels like.”
Look for Burakovsky to continue this offensive push as he adjusts to the increased pressure on his shots getting blocked. Historically, he is simply too dangerous of an offensive player to sustain a paltry 4.5 shooting percentage. Regression to his career average of 13.9 percent is due.
Welcome to the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season edition). Later in this post, we’ll also get into a mid-season update on the 2024 NHL Draft “data-only” top prospects ranking, which we published initially in the preseason.
What is the Big Board? It’s a composite ranking of 2024 NHL Draft-eligible prospects based on reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists. Put differently, it’s a list designed to provide the current, mid-season “public consensus” on the top players in the draft.
To build the Big Board we used mid-season ranking lists from Central Scouting, Bob McKenzie (TSN), Corey Pronman (The Athletic), Scott Wheeler (The Athletic), Steven Ellis (Daily Faceoff), Elite Prospects, and Scouching. Good-Friend-of-the-Pod Chris Peters’ mid-season list came out after I compiled the rankings. This version of the Big Board is skaters only. If you’re interested in how we do this, we explained it all here.
We published the Sound Of Hockey Big Board in advance of the 2022 Draft and the 2023 Draft. This is the first time we’re also doing an earlier mid-season check-in. To be clear, though, the intention is to return before the draft with the full, final version based on final draft lists, just as we have done in the past.
In the interim, we wanted to use this mid-season list to kick off expanded draft coverage here at Sound Of Hockey. In some form or another, we expect to be able to deliver data and scouting videos on the vast majority of the top prospects in the 2024 NHL Draft. Keep tabs with Sound Of Hockey for further updates on that.
The 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season edition)
You can find the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season version) in Google Sheets HERE.
Important note on using the Sound Of Hockey Big Board: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Here is a snapshot of top-64 prospects in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, sorted by the overall composite rank:
Rank
Name
Team
League
Birthdate
Height
Weight
Pos
Shot
Re-Draft?
1
Macklin Celebrini
Boston Univ.
NCAA
6/13/2006
72
190
C
L
2
Artyom Levshunov
Michigan State Univ.
NCAA
10/28/2005
74
208
D
R
3
Ivan Demidov
SKA-1946 St. Petersburg
MHL
12/10/2005
71
181
RW
L
4
Anton Silayev
Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod
KHL
4/11/2006
79
211
D
L
5
Cayden Lindstrom
Medicine Hat Tigers
WHL
2/3/2006
75.25
210
C
L
6
Cole Eiserman
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
8/29/2006
71.75
197
LW
L
7
Sam Dickinson
London Knights
OHL
6/7/2006
74.75
204
D
L
8
Berkly Catton
Spokane Chiefs
WHL
1/14/2006
70.75
170
C
L
9
Konsta Helenius
Jukurit
Liiga
5/11/2006
70.75
180
C
R
10
Zayne Parekh
Saginaw Spirit
OHL
2/15/2006
72
178
D
R
11
Zeev Buium
Univ. of Denver
NCAA
12/7/2005
72
183
D
L
12
Trevor Connelly
Tri-City Storm
USHL
2/28/2006
72.75
156
LW
L
13
Carter Yakemchuk
Calgary Hitmen
WHL
9/29/2005
74.75
190
D
R
14
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard
Mora IK
Hockey Allsvenskan
10/5/2005
73
198
RW
R
15
Adam Jiricek
HC Plzeň
Czechia
6/28/2006
74.5
178
D
R
16
Tij Iginla
Kelowna Rockets
WHL
8/4/2006
71.75
186
C
L
17
Liam Greentree
Windsor Spitfires
OHL
1/1/2006
74.5
211
RW
L
18
Igor Chernyshov
Dynamo Moskva
KHL
11/30/2005
74
192
LW
R
19
Beckett Sennecke
Oshawa Generals
OHL
1/28/2006
74.25
175
RW
R
20
Nikita Artamonov
Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod
KHL
11/17/2005
71
187
LW
L
21
Ryder Ritchie
Prince Albert Raiders
WHL
8/3/2006
71.75
175
RW
R
22
Sacha Boisvert
Muskegon Lumberjacks
USHL
3/17/2006
74
178
C
L
23
Emil Hemming
TPS
Liiga
6/27/2006
72.75
201
RW
R
24
Aron Kiviharju
HIFK
Liiga
1/25/2006
69.25
170
D
L
25
Andrew Basha
Medicine Hat Tigers
WHL
11/8/2005
71.25
184
LW
L
26
Michael Hage
Chicago Steel
USHL
4/14/2006
72.5
190
C
R
27
Charlie Elick
Brandon Wheat Kings
WHL
1/17/2006
75.25
200
D
R
28
Tanner Howe
Regina Pats
WHL
11/28/2005
69.75
182
LW
L
29
Cole Beaudoin
Barrie Colts
OHL
4/24/2006
73.75
209
C
L
30
Cole Hutson
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
6/28/2006
70.25
165
D
L
31
Dean Letourneau
2/21/2006
78
210
C
R
32
Alfons Freij
Växjö Lakers HC J20
J-20 Nationell
2/12/2006
72.5
187
D
L
33
Matvei Shuravin
Krasnaya Armiya Moskva
MHL
3/22/2006
75
195
D
L
34
EJ Emery
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
3/30/2006
75
185
D
R
35
Adam Jecho
Edmonton Oil Kings
WHL
3/24/2006
76.75
201
C
R
36
Leo Sahlin Wallenius
Växjö Lakers HC J20
J-20 Nationell
4/10/2006
71.5
176
D
L
37
Terik Parascak
Prince George Cougars
WHL
5/28/2006
71.5
176
RW
R
38
Dominik Badinka
Malmö Redhawks
SHL
11/27/2005
75
183
D
R
39
Luke Misa
Mississauga Steelheads
OHL
11/25/2005
70
175
C
L
40
Miguel Marques
Lethbridge Hurricanes
WHL
3/8/2006
70.5
173
RW
R
41
Henry Mews
Ottawa 67’s
OHL
3/9/2006
72
183
D
R
42
Maxim Masse
Chicoutimi Saguenéens
QMJHL
4/7/2006
73.75
192
RW
R
43
Matvei Gridin
Muskegon Lumberjacks
USHL
3/1/2006
73
185
RW
L
44
Jett Luchanko
Guelph Storm
OHL
8/21/2006
70.75
185
C
R
45
Leon Muggli
EV Zug
NL
7/9/2006
71.75
165
D
L
46
Tomas Galvas
Bílí Tygři Liberec
Czechia
2/11/2006
70.5
148
D
L
47
Jesse Pulkkinen
JYP U20
U20 SM-sarja
12/27/2004
78
203
D
L
Y
48
Veeti Vaisanen
KooKoo
Liiga
2/15/2006
72
177
D
L
49
Yegor Surin
Loko Yaroslavl
MHL
8/1/2006
73
191
C
L
50
Ben Danford
Oshawa Generals
OHL
2/6/2006
73
194
D
R
51
Stian Solberg
Vålerenga
Norway
12/29/2005
74
196
D
L
52
Will Skahan
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
5/14/2006
76
211
D
L
53
John Mustard
Waterloo Black Hawks
USHL
8/16/2006
72.5
184
C
L
54
Lucas Pettersson
MoDo Hockey J20
J-20 Nationell
4/17/2006
71
168
C
L
55
Simon Zether
Rögle BK
SHL
10/18/2005
75
186
C
R
56
Marek Vanacker
Brantford Bulldogs
OHL
4/12/2006
72.5
175
LW
L
57
Kamil Bednarik
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
5/26/2006
72
186
C
L
58
Raoul Boilard
Baie-Comeau Drakkar
QMJHL
1/7/2006
73.25
184
C
L
59
Teddy Stiga
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
4/5/2006
69.5
177
C
L
60
Sam O’Reilly
London Knights
OHL
3/30/2006
73
186
RW
R
61
Ondrej Kos
KOOVEE
Mestis
3/7/2006
74
167
LW
L
62
Julius Miettinen
Everett Silvertips
WHL
1/20/2006
74.75
205
C
L
63
Spencer Gill
Rimouski Océanic
QMJHL
8/17/2006
75.75
185
D
R
64
Christian Humphreys
U.S. National U18 Team
NTDP
2/4/2006
70.75
170
C
R
Mid-season 2024 NHL Draft “data-only” top prospects ranking
As mentioned at the top of this article, we also updated our preseason “data-only” ranking of top NHL prospects. This is a fundamentally different project than the Big Board. It is not built on the scouting lists of others. Instead it is a list compiled solely from player data (specifically, scoring production, league, age, size, and position).
As we have explained in earlier posts, we have built this ranking using an NHL equivalency (or “NHLe”) calculation applied to the player’s 2023-24 season scoring points. We then make modest adjustments based on factors known to be linked to prospect success rates, including (1) re-draft status, (2) age, and (3) height. On average, a six-foot-two winger who scores at the same rate as a five-foot-seven winger in junior hockey is more likely to contribute at the NHL level. Likewise, a player who scores a point per game as an 18-year-old in his league is more likely to become an NHL regular than a player who reaches that threshold for the first time as a 21-year-old. Finally, we then made a modest adjustment to bump up the ranking of (1) defensemen relative to forwards and (2) a small handful of low-producing players playing in top professional leagues.
So, without further ado, you can find the mid-season 2024 NHL Draft “data-only” top prospects ranking in Google Sheets HERE.
Important note on using the data-only ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Curious how the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board (mid-season edition) compares with a data-only list? We were too. Here are the top 40 first-time draft eligible players on the Big Board, listed in rank order with a comparison to their data-only rank order.
For example, while Macklin Celebrini is No. 1 on both lists, Artyom Levshunov is No. 2 on the Big Board but No. 6 in the data-only ranking. Konsta Helenius, by contrast, is No. 9 on the Big Board but No. 4 in the data-only ranking.
This is a way to see graphically which players are relatively higher ranked by scouts and which players are relatively favored by a data-only look. Whichever approach you prefer, it stands out that there is a good deal of consensus between the scouts and the data at the top.
We were also curious to look at which players have risen in the data-only rankings since the preseason rankings (which were based on 2022-23 season data). Here is a chart of the top 35 players in the mid-season data-only ranking, listed in rank order, with comparison to their preseason ranking.
Macklin Celebrini has been a steady No. 1 prospect based on the data alone. And none of the top 10 in the mid-season data ranking “came out of nowhere” from the preseason version. After that, though, you see a number of new players jumping into the mix with breakout 2023-24 seasons. It underscores what we said in the preseason post: The 18-year-old draft year tends to be a huge development year and reveals a lot about the pro potential of a prospect.
***
As we said, keep it here for more draft coverage this spring. What would you like to see us cover? What questions do you have? Feel free to contact us in the comments here or on X (formerly known as Twitter).
Header photo of Berkly Catton by Larry Brunt, courtesy of the Spokane Chiefs.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
In last week’s Monday Musings, I highlighted the Seattle Kraken’s quest for a playoff berth. To stay in hunt, I forecasted they would need at least three points from their three games that week. They stumbled out of the gate with a 3-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils, leaving a lot of us with little hope. The very next night, they secured a 2-1 shootout victory against the New York Islanders, and then followed that up with a gritty 4-1 win against the Boston Bruins, earning a total of four out of six points available over those three games.
The Kraken still find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture with most experts giving them a 15-30 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Western Conference wild card race is particularly intense, with seven teams vying for two spots. It’s rare to see such a tight race with so many teams in the conversation this late in the season. Each of these teams is just one hot streak away from securing a coveted playoff position. The fact that both wild card spots remain up for grabs gives me hope that the Kraken can defy the odds and clinch a postseason berth.
Eight of the remaining 28 Kraken games are against these “in the hunt” opponents. It is true that earning two points against one of these teams is as valuable as against any other team, but the crucial difference lies in preventing these teams from gaining points. I recall the St. Louis game on Jan. 26. For the most part, the Kraken dominated that game and should have won in regulation, but the Blues managed to hang around and ultimately won it in overtime. Consequently, the Kraken secured only one point instead of two, while the Blues earned two points instead of none. This resulted in a three-point swing in favor of the Blues.
If the Kraken had won that game in regulation, the Blues, currently holding the second wild card spot, would have 58 points, and the Kraken would have 57 points. Although the Blues would still occupy the wild card spot, their lead over the Kraken would have been reduced to just one point. I understand that dwelling on past events serves no purpose, but it highlights the critical nature of these head-to-head matchups.
Matt Rempe and Andy Eide
As soon as the former Seattle Thunderbird Matt Rempe was called up to the New York Rangers, I thought of our dear friend Andy Eide. Andy loved Rempe and would have been so stoked to see him make his NHL debut. Andy wrote a great story about Rempe halfway through his rookie season.
Rempe was always a long shot to make it. He was not drafted in the WHL Bantam Draft and was a sixth-round selection by the New York Rangers in 2020. Andy always treated the junior players really well and was mindful that these elite athletes were just kids, and he always had a soft spot for the dark horses. He used to love to talk about Scott Eansor, Cade McNelly, and Matt Wedman. There were others, but those are the ones that stood out for me.
Like Rempe, all those players are household names to Thunderbirds fans, and Andy would share these players’ names beyond the Thunderbirds’ fan base. Rempe had quite the debut: an outdoor game and a fight one second into his first shift.
Since the Winter Classic, the Seattle Kraken have captured 86 percent of the points available when scoring first and only 28 percent of the points when trailing first. They scored first in the Islanders game and trailed first in the Flyers, Devils, and Bruins games.
The Kraken scored their first power-play goal in five games on Thursday against the Bruins, their longest drought of the year. It isn’t that the Kraken’s power play has been bad as of late, they just have not been drawing the opportunities. They rank just 30th in the league in power-play opportunities per game with 2.74. Last season they were 21st in the league. I can’t pinpoint the root cause of it, other than it is driven by a lack of high-end talent.
It was fun to see the boys ribbing Andre Burakovsky for his blocked shot against the Boston Bruins. That was his seventh blocked shot of the season, three more than Marian Studenic, who played two games for the Kraken.
Joking aside, I think the last two games have been Burakovsky’s best games of the season. He is due for a breakout game. (If I say this every week, eventually I will be right).
Do not be surprised if Jordan Eberle remains with the team after the trade deadline without signing an extension. Eberle has made it clear that he wants to stay in Seattle, and the Kraken brass see an opportunity for him to continue his career here as well. Both realize there is a fit and are comfortable waiting to see if they can work something out.
Just a friendly reminder that the Kraken will be wearing the Winter Classic jerseys next Saturday when they take on the Minnesota Wild. Seattle’s goalies were seen wearing their WC gear at practice this weekend.
The Coachella Valley Firebirds announced that Shane Wright is currently out day to day after this hit on Thursday.
I mentioned Carson Rehkopf last week, and it seems like I can’t go a week without mentioning him. He had five points in two games over the weekend. Maybe I should give him his own section.
The Portland Winterhawks and Everett Silvertips both clinched playoff spots in the WHL. Both teams are power houses in the US Division, and I would not be surprised if either of them made the WHL Finals this season.
The PWHL set a record attendance figure to see a women’s hockey game on Friday. 19,285 fans saw Toronto beat Montreal at Scotiabank Arena. The league is averaging 5,527 due to the limited capacity of the arenas they are currently playing in. Before the Scotiabank Arena game, the Toronto team usually plays in Mattamy Athletic Centre, an arena with a capacity of 2,796. This league appears to be exceeding expectations, and I am excited to see how they build on this momentum.
I am often asked about the possible expansion of women’s pro hockey to Seattle. It is possible, but I believe a prerequisite will be a suitable arena with a capacity of 8K to 10K within five miles of downtown Seattle or Bellevue. I also think it would require some additional teams in Western Canada to create clusters of teams to ease travel.
Finally, if you are expecting a lot of action in the trade market this week, you are in luck. Things typically start to ratchet up about two weeks before the deadline, which would mean they will start around Feb. 23. It’s usually a slow burn for about a week after that, and then things increase the five days before the March 8 deadline.
Players of the week
Matty Beniers (SEA) – He had big performances in his last two games with four points, including this beauty of a sequence.
MATTY MAGIC! 🚨
That's one way to respond after a tough turnover last game.
Beniers goes HARD into the boards after a collision with Pulock, but seconds later, he scores his seventh goal of the season.
Chris Driedger (CVF) – Posted a .942 save percentage over three games for the Coachella Valley Firebirds with two shutouts. Driedger is showcasing his work to future employers, since his three-year deal with the Kraken ends this season. We’ve always liked Driedger and will be rooting for him to find a spot that will give him an NHL opportunity this summer.
Zaccharya Wisdom (CCT) – The Kraken’s seventh-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had seven points in his two games against North Dakota over the weekend including this four-goal performance.
We have been big fans of Seattle Kraken prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard ever since he appeared on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last summer. So, when he delights, we like to amplify.
The week ahead
Let me know if you have heard this before, but the Kraken have a big week in front of them, and every point will be critical. This week seems particularly challenging with two games against playoff bubble teams and another one against a playoff lock. The bubble teams, Detroit and Minnesota, will be playing for their postseason lives while Vancouver currently has the best record in the league. The Minnesota game seems particularly huge given that they are tied in the standings. It feels like the Kraken need to get four out of a possible six points this week with at least one point against the Wild.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to buckle up for this home stretch.
At the beginning of January, we reviewed the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken and set expectations for how they would need to perform for the rest of the season to make the postseason. Now that January is done, and whilst we are waiting for the Kraken to return from their bye week and All-Star break, we can give an update on where the team stands.
Per the January forecast, the boys from “The Deep” needed to get two points against playoff-bound teams between Jan. 6 and Jan. 31 and got zero. They lost to the New York Rangers on Jan. 16 and to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 21. The Kraken were forecasted at four points against bubble teams and fell just short with three points, earning a win against the Washington Capitals and an overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues, but losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers.
With the sting of the loss to the lowly San Jose Sharks still fresh in our minds, it would be easy to label losses to bad teams as the reason the Kraken have fallen off the pace. However, if you recall, we sorted the teams into three categories, Playoff-Bound, Bubble, and Tanker teams with forecasted win percentages assigned to each group.
The Sharks are firmly in the Tankers category, and the Kraken had five games against Tanker teams. The NHL is the best league in the world, though, and any team can win on any given night. The Seattle Kraken put in a solid effort for 40 minutes with nothing to show for it and eventually lost to San Jose, but they still took eight out of a possible 10 points against the Tankers class. So, we can’t pin Seattle’s struggles in the standings on that one loss.
So where did they lose momentum? Three games:
1/16 vs. New York Rangers – Playoff-bound team
Chris Driedger started his second NHL game of the season on the tail end of back-to-back games. Injuries and illnesses caused Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky, and Matty Beniers to miss the game. The rookie, Ryker Evans, led all skaters with over 25 minutes of ice time. He played on the first pairing with Adam Larsson, which was a great opportunity for him, but was more indicative that the Kraken were playing with guys at less than 100 percent health. Everything was stacked against the Kraken in this one.
1/21 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Playoff-bound team
Fresh from his stint in the AHL, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, stood tall and made a couple of spectacular saves to keep his team firmly in the lead. Even with Burakovsky back from injury, the Kraken only generated a paltry 17 shots on net.
1/26 vs. St. Louis Blues – Bubble team
The Kraken held the most dangerous lead in hockey late in the second period, a 3-1 advantage, before a tripping penalty by Will Borgen. This woke up the St. Louis Blues, who scored three straight to come back and beat the Kraken in overtime. One point was still earned, and that is important.
The loss against St. Louis was a double-edged sword, as the Kraken are in direct competition with the Blues for a wild card spot. Games versus Western Conference bubble teams are very important; earning two points is key, but almost as important is preventing the opponent from getting points. From this one loss, the Kraken allowed the Blues to sneak into the last wild card spot just before the All-Star break.
Updating the forecast:
From the Sound Of Hockey’sKraken Roundtable, John Barr researched the following: “Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs.” Digging into this further, five of the nine teams that made it into the playoffs did so with 93 points or less.
Keeping the target of 93 points for the Kraken is still a realistic goal that could get them into the playoffs, but we do have to account for the three points missed in January. There has also been some movement between the team categories.
Changes are highlighted in bold:
Team Categories:
Playoff-bound teams:
Eastern Conference – Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes ↑
Bubble teams:
Eastern Conference – Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs ↓, New York Islanders ↓
Tanker teams (no change):
Eastern Conference –Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens
Western Conference – Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers ↑
Western Conference – Arizona Coyotes, Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild, Calgary Flames, Los Angeles Kings ↓
Western Conference – Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks
Factoring in the changes to the team categories and the three additional points needed, we have updated the forecast to the following:
Focus on February:
The Kraken have a pivotal month ahead as they march toward the trade deadline (March 8). With no games against Tanker teams, three versus Playoff-Bound teams, and six against Bubble teams, the Kraken will have to come back from the break firing on all cylinders.
Per the forecast, individual losses are not devastating, but the playoff-hopeful Kraken need to capture 11 of 18 possible points in the month, good for a .611 points percentage. Since goaltender Joey Daccord stepped into the starting role, the Kraken own a .659 points percentage over 22 games. With 32 games remaining, the Kraken need to maintain at least .640 point percentage the rest of the season or roughly four points every three games.
With the break allowing the team to recover from injuries and illnesses, hopefully coach Dave Hakstol will have his full lineup at his disposal. As of the All-Star break, moneypuck.com has the Kraken with the best odds to make the final wild card spot in the Western Conference at 42.3 percent. February will be a fun ride for Seattle as the Kraken push for a playoff position.
Please comment below with your thoughts on the Seattle Kraken’s playoff chances.
