In last week’s Monday Musings, I highlighted the Seattle Kraken’s quest for a playoff berth. To stay in hunt, I forecasted they would need at least three points from their three games that week. They stumbled out of the gate with a 3-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils, leaving a lot of us with little hope. The very next night, they secured a 2-1 shootout victory against the New York Islanders, and then followed that up with a gritty 4-1 win against the Boston Bruins, earning a total of four out of six points available over those three games.
The Kraken still find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture with most experts giving them a 15-30 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Western Conference wild card race is particularly intense, with seven teams vying for two spots. It’s rare to see such a tight race with so many teams in the conversation this late in the season. Each of these teams is just one hot streak away from securing a coveted playoff position. The fact that both wild card spots remain up for grabs gives me hope that the Kraken can defy the odds and clinch a postseason berth.
Eight of the remaining 28 Kraken games are against these “in the hunt” opponents. It is true that earning two points against one of these teams is as valuable as against any other team, but the crucial difference lies in preventing these teams from gaining points. I recall the St. Louis game on Jan. 26. For the most part, the Kraken dominated that game and should have won in regulation, but the Blues managed to hang around and ultimately won it in overtime. Consequently, the Kraken secured only one point instead of two, while the Blues earned two points instead of none. This resulted in a three-point swing in favor of the Blues.
If the Kraken had won that game in regulation, the Blues, currently holding the second wild card spot, would have 58 points, and the Kraken would have 57 points. Although the Blues would still occupy the wild card spot, their lead over the Kraken would have been reduced to just one point. I understand that dwelling on past events serves no purpose, but it highlights the critical nature of these head-to-head matchups.
Matt Rempe and Andy Eide
As soon as the former Seattle Thunderbird Matt Rempe was called up to the New York Rangers, I thought of our dear friend Andy Eide. Andy loved Rempe and would have been so stoked to see him make his NHL debut. Andy wrote a great story about Rempe halfway through his rookie season.
Rempe was always a long shot to make it. He was not drafted in the WHL Bantam Draft and was a sixth-round selection by the New York Rangers in 2020. Andy always treated the junior players really well and was mindful that these elite athletes were just kids, and he always had a soft spot for the dark horses. He used to love to talk about Scott Eansor, Cade McNelly, and Matt Wedman. There were others, but those are the ones that stood out for me.
Like Rempe, all those players are household names to Thunderbirds fans, and Andy would share these players’ names beyond the Thunderbirds’ fan base. Rempe had quite the debut: an outdoor game and a fight one second into his first shift.
Since the Winter Classic, the Seattle Kraken have captured 86 percent of the points available when scoring first and only 28 percent of the points when trailing first. They scored first in the Islanders game and trailed first in the Flyers, Devils, and Bruins games.
The Kraken scored their first power-play goal in five games on Thursday against the Bruins, their longest drought of the year. It isn’t that the Kraken’s power play has been bad as of late, they just have not been drawing the opportunities. They rank just 30th in the league in power-play opportunities per game with 2.74. Last season they were 21st in the league. I can’t pinpoint the root cause of it, other than it is driven by a lack of high-end talent.
It was fun to see the boys ribbing Andre Burakovsky for his blocked shot against the Boston Bruins. That was his seventh blocked shot of the season, three more than Marian Studenic, who played two games for the Kraken.
Joking aside, I think the last two games have been Burakovsky’s best games of the season. He is due for a breakout game. (If I say this every week, eventually I will be right).
Do not be surprised if Jordan Eberle remains with the team after the trade deadline without signing an extension. Eberle has made it clear that he wants to stay in Seattle, and the Kraken brass see an opportunity for him to continue his career here as well. Both realize there is a fit and are comfortable waiting to see if they can work something out.
Just a friendly reminder that the Kraken will be wearing the Winter Classic jerseys next Saturday when they take on the Minnesota Wild. Seattle’s goalies were seen wearing their WC gear at practice this weekend.
The Coachella Valley Firebirds announced that Shane Wright is currently out day to day after this hit on Thursday.
I mentioned Carson Rehkopf last week, and it seems like I can’t go a week without mentioning him. He had five points in two games over the weekend. Maybe I should give him his own section.
The Portland Winterhawks and Everett Silvertips both clinched playoff spots in the WHL. Both teams are power houses in the US Division, and I would not be surprised if either of them made the WHL Finals this season.
The PWHL set a record attendance figure to see a women’s hockey game on Friday. 19,285 fans saw Toronto beat Montreal at Scotiabank Arena. The league is averaging 5,527 due to the limited capacity of the arenas they are currently playing in. Before the Scotiabank Arena game, the Toronto team usually plays in Mattamy Athletic Centre, an arena with a capacity of 2,796. This league appears to be exceeding expectations, and I am excited to see how they build on this momentum.
I am often asked about the possible expansion of women’s pro hockey to Seattle. It is possible, but I believe a prerequisite will be a suitable arena with a capacity of 8K to 10K within five miles of downtown Seattle or Bellevue. I also think it would require some additional teams in Western Canada to create clusters of teams to ease travel.
Finally, if you are expecting a lot of action in the trade market this week, you are in luck. Things typically start to ratchet up about two weeks before the deadline, which would mean they will start around Feb. 23. It’s usually a slow burn for about a week after that, and then things increase the five days before the March 8 deadline.
Players of the week
Matty Beniers (SEA) – He had big performances in his last two games with four points, including this beauty of a sequence.
MATTY MAGIC! 🚨
That's one way to respond after a tough turnover last game.
Beniers goes HARD into the boards after a collision with Pulock, but seconds later, he scores his seventh goal of the season.
Chris Driedger (CVF) – Posted a .942 save percentage over three games for the Coachella Valley Firebirds with two shutouts. Driedger is showcasing his work to future employers, since his three-year deal with the Kraken ends this season. We’ve always liked Driedger and will be rooting for him to find a spot that will give him an NHL opportunity this summer.
Zaccharya Wisdom (CCT) – The Kraken’s seventh-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had seven points in his two games against North Dakota over the weekend including this four-goal performance.
We have been big fans of Seattle Kraken prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard ever since he appeared on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last summer. So, when he delights, we like to amplify.
The week ahead
Let me know if you have heard this before, but the Kraken have a big week in front of them, and every point will be critical. This week seems particularly challenging with two games against playoff bubble teams and another one against a playoff lock. The bubble teams, Detroit and Minnesota, will be playing for their postseason lives while Vancouver currently has the best record in the league. The Minnesota game seems particularly huge given that they are tied in the standings. It feels like the Kraken need to get four out of a possible six points this week with at least one point against the Wild.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to buckle up for this home stretch.
At the beginning of January, we reviewed the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken and set expectations for how they would need to perform for the rest of the season to make the postseason. Now that January is done, and whilst we are waiting for the Kraken to return from their bye week and All-Star break, we can give an update on where the team stands.
Per the January forecast, the boys from “The Deep” needed to get two points against playoff-bound teams between Jan. 6 and Jan. 31 and got zero. They lost to the New York Rangers on Jan. 16 and to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 21. The Kraken were forecasted at four points against bubble teams and fell just short with three points, earning a win against the Washington Capitals and an overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues, but losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers.
With the sting of the loss to the lowly San Jose Sharks still fresh in our minds, it would be easy to label losses to bad teams as the reason the Kraken have fallen off the pace. However, if you recall, we sorted the teams into three categories, Playoff-Bound, Bubble, and Tanker teams with forecasted win percentages assigned to each group.
The Sharks are firmly in the Tankers category, and the Kraken had five games against Tanker teams. The NHL is the best league in the world, though, and any team can win on any given night. The Seattle Kraken put in a solid effort for 40 minutes with nothing to show for it and eventually lost to San Jose, but they still took eight out of a possible 10 points against the Tankers class. So, we can’t pin Seattle’s struggles in the standings on that one loss.
So where did they lose momentum? Three games:
1/16 vs. New York Rangers – Playoff-bound team
Chris Driedger started his second NHL game of the season on the tail end of back-to-back games. Injuries and illnesses caused Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky, and Matty Beniers to miss the game. The rookie, Ryker Evans, led all skaters with over 25 minutes of ice time. He played on the first pairing with Adam Larsson, which was a great opportunity for him, but was more indicative that the Kraken were playing with guys at less than 100 percent health. Everything was stacked against the Kraken in this one.
1/21 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Playoff-bound team
Fresh from his stint in the AHL, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, stood tall and made a couple of spectacular saves to keep his team firmly in the lead. Even with Burakovsky back from injury, the Kraken only generated a paltry 17 shots on net.
1/26 vs. St. Louis Blues – Bubble team
The Kraken held the most dangerous lead in hockey late in the second period, a 3-1 advantage, before a tripping penalty by Will Borgen. This woke up the St. Louis Blues, who scored three straight to come back and beat the Kraken in overtime. One point was still earned, and that is important.
The loss against St. Louis was a double-edged sword, as the Kraken are in direct competition with the Blues for a wild card spot. Games versus Western Conference bubble teams are very important; earning two points is key, but almost as important is preventing the opponent from getting points. From this one loss, the Kraken allowed the Blues to sneak into the last wild card spot just before the All-Star break.
Updating the forecast:
From the Sound Of Hockey’sKraken Roundtable, John Barr researched the following: “Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs.” Digging into this further, five of the nine teams that made it into the playoffs did so with 93 points or less.
Keeping the target of 93 points for the Kraken is still a realistic goal that could get them into the playoffs, but we do have to account for the three points missed in January. There has also been some movement between the team categories.
Changes are highlighted in bold:
Team Categories:
Playoff-bound teams:
Eastern Conference – Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes ↑
Bubble teams:
Eastern Conference – Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs ↓, New York Islanders ↓
Tanker teams (no change):
Eastern Conference –Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens
Western Conference – Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers ↑
Western Conference – Arizona Coyotes, Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild, Calgary Flames, Los Angeles Kings ↓
Western Conference – Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks
Factoring in the changes to the team categories and the three additional points needed, we have updated the forecast to the following:
Focus on February:
The Kraken have a pivotal month ahead as they march toward the trade deadline (March 8). With no games against Tanker teams, three versus Playoff-Bound teams, and six against Bubble teams, the Kraken will have to come back from the break firing on all cylinders.
Per the forecast, individual losses are not devastating, but the playoff-hopeful Kraken need to capture 11 of 18 possible points in the month, good for a .611 points percentage. Since goaltender Joey Daccord stepped into the starting role, the Kraken own a .659 points percentage over 22 games. With 32 games remaining, the Kraken need to maintain at least .640 point percentage the rest of the season or roughly four points every three games.
With the break allowing the team to recover from injuries and illnesses, hopefully coach Dave Hakstol will have his full lineup at his disposal. As of the All-Star break, moneypuck.com has the Kraken with the best odds to make the final wild card spot in the Western Conference at 42.3 percent. February will be a fun ride for Seattle as the Kraken push for a playoff position.
Please comment below with your thoughts on the Seattle Kraken’s playoff chances.
A few weeks back, we reviewed the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents in a two-part series (Part I and Part II). This week, we will be jumping into the Kraken’s three restricted free agents (RFA’s) and reviewing what might be in store for them during the offseason. The Coachella Valley Firebirds also have five additional RFA’s in the Kraken development system. We will focus more on the RFA’s currently playing with Seattle but will also touch briefly on the ones playing for the Firebirds.
There are many rules around RFA’s that complicate contract negotiations. If you need a refresher on the free agency process and steps, Sound Of Hockey‘s own Curtis Isacke wrote a piece on free agency last year for review. The appendix outlines the terms associated with free agency, and there is also a section dedicated to RFA’s.
The Seattle Kraken RFA process is a long one that can last up to 18 months. It technically started back on July 1, 2023, when the players in question first became eligible to sign contract extensions. At the conclusion of the process, the hope for both sides is typically a finalized contract. These negotiations can sometimes drag into the following season, causing a player to miss time, but that is rare.
Here are the high-level steps RFA’s will go through:
Possibility of contract extension
Qualifying offers extended
Arbitration (if the player is eligible; Matty Beniers is the only Kraken RFA that does not have arbitration rights)
Contract negotiations (short-term bridge or long-term deal?)
The Kraken RFA’s are:
Matty Beniers (Age 21) – Target: Re-sign for two years at $5M AAV
Matty Beniers at Kraken practice. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
After dazzling as a rookie and capturing the Calder Trophy last season, Beniers has found himself in a sophomore slump season. His scoring pace has dipped by around 40 percent, signaling his value in negotiations has decreased and a bridge deal might be in his future.
While the scoring decline is noticeable, it’s crucial to consider the context. Through 50 games, the Kraken have scored 140 goals, down from the 177 goals they scored in 50 games last season. Beniers’ value also extends beyond pure offense. He’s a skilled two-way center, contributing defensively and driving puck possession. But, he still needs to produce offensively to warrant the massive contract his camp surely wants.
With no extension signed to date, it is questionable if a deal will be done before the offseason. Had Beniers maintained his rookie scoring pace, a maximum-term, eight-year contract would likely be on the table. Given the current scoring slump, a bridge deal (one-to-four years) appears more probable.
Looking at recent bridge deals for young, talented players offers some insight:
Trevor Zegras: three-year bridge at $5.75M AAV
Pierre-Luc Dubois: two-year bridge at $5M AAV, followed by a one-year bridge at $6M AAV
Despite the scoring dip, Beniers’ overall value remains high.
Defensive Prowess: His two-way play adds considerable value beyond the goal sheet.
Calder Trophy Winner: His past achievements and potential shouldn’t be disregarded.
Age and Development: At 21, Beniers is still developing and has plenty of room for improvement.
Trade options:
As the franchise’s first-ever draft pick and face of the team, the Kraken are unlikely to trade Beniers. We will not be reviewing trade options.
Prediction:
We anticipate a bridge deal in the two-to-four-year range with $4.5M-$5.5M AAV. This will give Beniers a chance to rediscover his scoring touch and earn a potential eight-year extension while still young.
Eeli Tolvanen (Age 24) – Target: Re-sign for 5 years at $4M AAV
Eeli Tolvanen’s arrival in Seattle via a savvy waiver wire claim has quickly become one of the NHL’s biggest waiver success stories. Now, as the 24-year-old winger approaches the end of his current contract, the Seattle Kraken face a crucial decision: bridge deal or long-term commitment?
Eeli Tolvanen and Yanni Gourde celebrate a goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Tolvanen’s offensive prowess is undeniable. He’s on pace for a career-high point total this season, showcasing a potent blend of goal-scoring ability and playmaking. His physicality is another asset, leading all Kraken forwards in hits (136), and he is also second in blocked shots (52) through 50 games.
Contract comparables:
Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes): five years, $4.3M AAV
Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis Blues): five years, $5M AAV
Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild): eight years, $5.25M AAV
Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): five years, $4.5M AAV
Complicating factors:
One wrinkle in the negotiations is Tolvanen’s arbitration eligibility. If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, an independent arbitrator will determine his contract value. This adds an element of uncertainty for both the Kraken and Tolvanen and gives the player more leverage.
Another factor to consider is Tolvanen’s unique skill set. Most of the comparable contracts listed above feature players that contribute on the penalty kill. The Finnish winger primarily thrives on five-on-five as a solid two-way player and brings an accurate shot to the power play.
Trade options:
While trades involving restricted free agents outperforming their current contracts are uncommon, since teams typically hold onto their relatively young talent, some recent deals offer insights into potential return value.
Artturi Lehkonen – Colorado surrendered a second-round pick and former first-round prospect Justin Barron for Lehkonen in 2022.
Sam Bennett – Florida sent a package of a second-round pick and former second-round prospect Emil Heineman for Bennett and a sixth-round pick in 2021.
While Tolvanen’s power-play prowess surpasses those of the comparables, it’s unlikely to push his trade value to a first-round pick. A target trade return should be two second-round picks/prospects or better. Despite the potential trade haul, the Kraken will likely prioritize re-signing Tolvanen unless an exceptional offer emerges.
The 2023 Tampa Bay Lightning trade for Tanner Jeannot serves as an example of an offer potentially too good to refuse. Nashville received a first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round draft pick, along with defenseman Cal Foote, for the feisty winger.
Prediction:
Despite the uncertainties, expect the Kraken to prioritize retaining Tolvanen long-term. Jared McCann and Vince Dunn were of similar age when they signed their deals with the Kraken and both will be 30 at the time their contracts come to term. We see the Kraken structuring this deal in a similar way but at a smaller dollar value than the $7.35M AAV deal for Dunn and the $5M AAV deal for McCann.
A five-year deal in the $4M-$4.5M AAV range seems like a reasonable outcome. While a longer-term contract isn’t out of the question, a five-year deal gives Tolvanen more options later in his career.
Kailer Yamamoto (Age 25) – Target: Trade for a fourth-round pick
Don’t let Kailer Yamamoto’s stature fool you. At 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the Seattle Kraken forward might be one of the smallest players in the NHL, but his heart and hustle are oversized. He came to the Kraken via free agency after being traded and then bought out of his last $3.2M contract by Detroit, but he is now a pending RFA with Seattle.
Kailer Yamamoto handles the puck. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Yamamoto’s tenacity is most evident on the forecheck, where he uses his low center of gravity to hound puck carriers; he is third on the team in takeaways minus giveaways. The Spokane native’s knack for entering the offensive zone with control translates to his high power play usage.
Yamamoto’s versatility adds another layer to his worth, his high career shooting percentage (14.1 percent) allows him to bump up the lineup when needed. Despite his fourth-line designation, Yamamoto’s advanced statistics are strong. He currently leads the Kraken in both Corsi and Fenwick percentage, suggesting that Yamamoto not only generates offense himself, but also elevates the play of his teammates when on the ice.
The Seattle Kraken only deploy Yamamoto about 12 minutes per game and have scratched him from the lineup on several occasions. In researching players to find comparable contracts, the search was narrowed to players that:
Average under 13 minutes per game.
Average over 90 seconds of power-play time per game.
Have under 20 points on the season.
Have played more than 25 games this season.
Only six players meet this criteria, and they either are playing at or near the league minimum salary or have signed a large deal and are not playing to their contract’s value. Yamamoto doesn’t fit in these categories, so we will not be looking at those comparables.
The small winger is only 25, so he does have one more year where he can play as an RFA. At this point, though, it is apparent the fourth-liner is not going to move the needle enough for the Seattle Kraken and has solidified himself as a depth player.
The winger is arbitration eligible, and a qualifying offer would have to match his current $1.5M AAV. For these reasons, we think it is unlikely the Kraken extend a qualifying offer to Yamamoto. The former Spokane Chief could still sign with the Kraken during free agency, and if that happens, you can expect another one-year deal in the neighborhood of $1M AAV.
Trade options:
The best trade to review is probably his own from Edmonton to Detroit, but there are a couple other options to review too:
Kailer Yamamoto – Detroit sent the infamous “Future Considerations” to Edmonton in 2023 and also received the signing rights of Klim Kostin.
Oskar Sundqvist – Detroit acquired a fourth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023
Rasmus Asplund – Nashville traded a seventh-round pick to Nashville in 2023
The only piece that has changed since Yamamoto’s last trade is his AAV is now $1.5M versus $3.2M when traded in 2023. Factoring in that Yamamoto is still an RFA and the Kraken can retain 50 percent of his contract, a playoff-bound team getting a depth winger with power play experience at a minimal cap hit does have some value. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is in the right range.
Prediction:
If the Kraken remain in the playoff hunt, they will probably hold onto Yamamoto through the end of the season. There are capable right wing fourth-line options in Coachella Valley with Kole Lind, Marian Studenic, and John Hayden available for call-ups, though, so if they get an offer for Yamamoto, the Kraken may be willing to trade him.
Down on the Farm [Moooo!]
Even when I type “Moooo”, I hear it in Sound Of Hockey Podcast host, Darren Brown’s voice. All five of the Coachella Valley Firebird RFA’s are arbitration eligible. This is not as much of a concern as at the NHL level, because most contracts will be two-way deals around league minimum, $775K AAV. All of these players make under $1M, so the qualifying offers will include a five percent increase. We will review each player and assign a “Qualify”, “Trade,” or “Let walk” tag to each player.
Kole Lind– Target: Trade The 25-year-old winger excels on the offensive side of the game, but his scoring successes have not translated to the NHL yet. Similar to Daniel Sprong, there are questions around his two-way play, which makes him a hard fit for the Kraken. He’s one of those guys that has been right on the cusp of making it in the NHL, though. The Kraken should look to trade the winger and package him with another player.
Ville Petman – Target: Qualify The Finnish winger was signed to a two-year deal in 2022 after showing promise in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, scoring 39 points in 59 games. Bringing him to the AHL have allowed the Kraken to evaluate how Petman adapts to the North American game and monitor his improvement. The 24-year-old left wing got off to a good start with 28 points in his first AHL season, but he unfortunately has not showed improvement this season. There are still enough positives to award Petman another contract, but don’t expect to see him on the Kraken roster any time soon.
Luke Henman – Target: Let walk The first player signed to a contract in Kraken franchise history, Henman was never signed to an entry-level deal by Carolina after being drafted in the fourth round in 2018. In his three years in the AHL, his offensive abilities have become stagnant, averaging 0.24 points per game. At 23, Henman still has time to develop, but making the NHL at this point is a going to be an uphill battle.
Marian Studenic – Target: Qualify Studenic is a hard-forechecking winger with a scoring touch. Listed at 165 pounds, he is on the lighter side but could fill a fourth-line type role. With one year remaining as RFA, we think the Kraken will make him a qualifying offer. Update, it has come to my attention that Studenic will actually be a Group 6 UFA at the end of the season. That means the Kraken would not make a qualifying offer, but rather just re-sign him.
Peetro Seppala – Target: Qualify Seppala is a left-shot defenseman that is getting good experience in the AHL. The Finn brings a mix of good puck-moving ability and improving offensive numbers in his two years with the Firebirds. He is behind Ryker Evans on the depth chart and still needs to develop his game, though. We think the Kraken will look to retain Seppala’s rights and extend him a qualifying offer.
Group 6 UFA Sound of Hockey’s own Curtis Isacke pointed out that Kole Lind and Martin Studenic will most likely be Group 6 UFA’s at the end of the season and he is absolutely correct. A full definition of a Group 6 UFA can be found here. A simplified definition is a player that is at least 25 years-old, played at least 3 professional seasons and played less than 80 games at the NHL level.
Overall:
Beniers’ development, Tolvanen’s retention, and Yamamoto’s future all paint a larger picture of Seattle’s commitment to building a contender. Balancing the Kraken’s short-term needs with long-term aspirations, the decisions made this offseason will be interesting to watch. Join the conversation below and let us know how you think the Kraken should handle their RFA’s.
The Utah Jazz surprised us all with their unexpected reveal of the Seattle Kraken’s Winter Classic Jersey on Nov. 17. This got me thinking about an NBA team inevitably returning to Seattle and what it might mean for the Kraken. More specifically, I’ve been pondering since that jersey reveal about how adding an NBA team to Climate Pledge Arena would impact the Kraken home schedule. Now that the hoopla of the Winter Classic has died down, I decided to do some investigating to see how other NHL teams’ schedules get impacted by sharing their buildings with NBA teams.
My expectation was that teams that share an arena with the NBA would have more mid-week games and fewer weekend games. In fact, the data does support that but does not have nearly the influence I would have guessed. The larger ramifications are on the specific day of the week the game is played and the number of day games.
Process
I analyzed 20 NHL team schedules—10 NHL teams that share an arena with the NBA and 10 that only house the NHL—from 2014-2024 and excluded the two seasons (2019-20, 2020-21) that were shortened due to the pandemic.
During the eight seasons researched, 328 regular-season home games were played per team with the exception of the Detroit Red Wings (205 games), who only started sharing with the Detroit Pistons in the 2017-18 season when Little Caesars Arena opened. For “NBA + NHL” cities, 3,157 regular-season home NHL games were analyzed. For “NHL Only” teams, 3,280 regular-season games were analyzed.
NBA + NHL
Currently there are 10 NHL teams that share an arena with an NBA team:
Los Angeles Kings
Dallas Stars
Colorado Avalanche
Washington Capitals
Detroit Red Wings
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins
Chicago Blackhawks
Philadelphia Flyers
One team of note is the Los Angeles Kings who share Crypto.com Arena with both the Clippers and Lakers. Interestingly, five of the “Original Six” NHL team arenas also play home to NBA teams. From a divisional standpoint, there are three teams each from the Atlantic, Metropolitan, and Central Divisions that house teams from both leagues and just one team in the Pacific Division.
NHL Only
I compared the “NBA + NHL” teams with 10 NHL teams that have their own barn, and the “NHL Only” teams used are:
San Jose Sharks
Vancouver Canucks
Montreal Canadiens
Buffalo Sabres
Carolina Hurricanes
Tampa Bay Lightning
New Jersey Devils
Pittsburgh Penguins
Nashville Predators
Minnesota Wild
Results
Data is sliced into a few views:
Sunday-Thursday versus Friday-Saturday
Days of the week
Day games versus night games
Comparison to the Seattle Kraken
Sunday-Thursday versus Friday-Saturday
As seen in the graphs, the difference between “NBA + NHL” and “NHL Only” for weekend games is only 2.6 percent. That works out to roughly one fewer weekend game each year for teams that share an arena.
Days of the week
What jumped out here is “NHL Only” teams played 68.2 percent of their homes games on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays compared to “NBA + NHL” teams played only 59.9 percent. By far these three days of the week are the busiest in the NHL.
For “NBA + NHL” teams, the remaining days of the week were more level with approximately 10 percent of the games each day, with Friday being the lowest at 8.6 percent. For the “NHL Only” teams, Wednesday was the least active day at 5.7 percent with Monday, Friday and Sunday coming in around a nine-percent average.
Day games versus night games
Teams that share arenas have to deal with converting the venue from hockey to basketball and back, which is the reason I looked at the data for day games. The LA Times reported, “… a group of 60 Crypto.com Arena workers set in motion a two-hour transformation of the playing surfaces, from Clippers hardwood to Kings ice, and for only a handful of times, back to hardwood for a Lakers game the following day.” Here is a video of the process to convert between basketball and hockey.
For reference, a day game is any game starting before 3:00 p.m. and a night game is 3:00 p.m. or later. The main takeaway is that “NBA + NHL” teams had 3.5 percent more day games than “NHL Only”.
The number of day games per team varied by a large margin. For the “NBA + NHL” teams, the range varied from 0.9 percent to 18.9 percent. For “NHL Only” teams the range varied from 0.6 percent to 14 percent. That seems somewhat like team preference was a deciding factor on if teams played day games or not, but in general Seattle might expect a couple more day games during the year if they end up with an NBA team sharing CPA.
Comparison to the Seattle Kraken
Through the first three seasons of hockey in Seattle, the Kraken are right in the middle between “NHL Only” and “NBA + NHL” teams with 33.3 percent of their games scheduled on the weekend. The Kraken have evenly distributed their remaining games over the other days of the week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday). Seattle has had six scheduled day games over the first three years which is 4.9 percent of their home games.
Overall
I agree that the NBA will come back to Seattle. “I think the NBA comes someday, and I think the NBA fans owe the Kraken fans a beer and a tip of the cap,” Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke told KOMO News on Jan. 4, 2023.
Kraken fans can rest easy, though, as the data supports that the NHL home schedule will not change drastically. There could be a few more day games and one fewer weekend game, but overall, we should continue to enjoy a similar schedule composition.
The Seattle Kraken announced on Friday they had traded for veteran winger Tomas Tatar in a deal with the Colorado Avalanche, sending back a fifth-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft.
The native of Ilava, Slovakia, has played 810 career games with the Detroit Red Wings, Vegas Golden Knights, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, and Colorado Avalanche. Tatar, 33, was in the midst of a down year in Colorado, having posted just one goal and eight assists in 27 games.
But he is a capable winger who has scored 20-plus goals seven different times in his career, including last season with the Devils, when he racked up 48 points (20-28—48). Tatar’s ice time this season with the Avs had dwindled to an average of 11:16 per game, the lowest of his career other than 2010-11, when he was a rookie in Detroit and only played nine games.
Why it works on paper
This is exactly the type of low-risk trade I hoped to see when I officially hit the panic button after a painful 4-2 Kraken loss at the Montreal Canadiens on Dec. 4. The loss was—at that time—Seattle’s fifth loss in a row, a skid that would eventually balloon to eight games.
After seeing Seattle lose in such miserable, slow-starting fashion to the Habs, I was convinced something needed to change with the personnel. I wanted to see Kraken management start pulling some levers to get things moving in the right direction.
Sure enough, the Kraken have since called up defenseman Ryker Evans, who has made an immediate positive impact, and now they’ve brought in a guy from outside the organization who should (theoretically) help put the puck in the net and improve the team’s depth.
Even if coach Dave Hakstol utilizes Tatar in a top-six role, that still theoretically makes Seattle’s fourth line better, as a more-skilled player will trickle down the lineup.
A low-risk deal
Economically, it’s an easy dart to throw, too. Tatar’s cap hit is only $1.5 million, he’s on a one-year deal, and he only cost the team a fifth-round pick. So if general manager Ron Francis and his staff think there’s still a chance of getting into the playoffs this season—and Tatar can be that catalyst to help jumpstart the group—then why not pull the trigger on a deal like this?
The worst-case scenario is that Tatar doesn’t produce, even with the change of scenery, and then they don’t re-sign him this offseason. Heck, maybe he plays well for the Kraken, but they still don’t get back into playoff position. Is there a world where they trade Tatar at the deadline and even get a better return than a fifth-round pick?
Remember, last season, the Kraken had a lull around this time of year and made a waiver claim on Eeli Tolvanen (that came on Dec. 12). The day they put the Finnish gunslinger into the lineup was the first day of an eight-game winning streak and a jumping-off point for solidifying a playoff spot.
We aren’t saying Tatar will necessarily have that same impact on the Kraken (again, he hasn’t been performing very well this season offensively), but there is an opportunity for him to come in, get a good look at a top-six role to start, and get handed plenty of scoring opportunities.
Cap gymnastics
With all of Seattle’s injuries this season, the team has gotten itself close to the salary cap. To fit Tatar in, the Kraken intentionally pushed even closer to the $83.5 million limit by temporarily swapping Tye Kartye for Shane Wright on the official roster, then placed Jaden Schwartz on long-term injured reserve.
LTIR allows Seattle to go over the cap by the amount of Schwartz’s salary, minus whatever gap they had between the cap and their total cap hit. So, by getting right to the cap, then moving Schwartz to LTIR, Seattle opened an additional $5.5 million in usable cap space. $1.5 million of that space goes to Tatar, so now the team has $4 million left in its LTIR pool until Schwartz returns. Once Schwartz does return (no timetable for him at this point), the team will have to become cap compliant once again.
After the trade was announced, Marian Studenic was returned to Coachella Valley, also putting Seattle at its 23-player roster limit.
A fine trade
I like this trade. Seattle has just started to show some life after breaking its losing streak and getting two straight wins to create some good feelings. By adding to the group, the front office shows it believes the team can still make it to the postseason.
Tatar historically has been a very good player, but it seems Colorado hasn’t been the right fit for him. If he can regain even some of his offensive prowess with the Kraken, at a low cap hit and on an expiring contract, then this should prove to be a good move.
If he continues to flounder and can’t get it going for the rest of the season, then Tatar inflicts minimal-to-no damage on the team’s longer-term plans.
What do you think of this acquisition, folks?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
What a difference a week makes. Last Monday, it felt like the Seattle Kraken were on the brink of theoretical elimination from contending for a playoff spot, and now I am convinced they are a playoff team. Remember what I said about recency bias a few weeks ago? It apparently works the other way too, because I am now feeling good about this team’s chances this season after its impressive win against Vancouver on Saturday.
The Kraken secured five of a possible six points over the last three games and have looked good in all those games. There is still a long way to go, but there is a lot to be happy about over this last stretch. For starters, the depth scoring that was a key to Seattle’s success in 2022-23 has returned. Over the last three games, the Kraken have scored 10 goals from eight different players. They also won a game that went to a shootout for the first time in 579 days.
No panic
Since Game No. 5 on the season, it has felt like the Kraken have been playing decent hockey most nights, but they just were not getting quality results (and yes, I know there were some real stinkers sprinkled in there). If you play good hockey, the wins should come, so I’m hoping the last week of play is the new normal.
Coach Dave Hakstol has been even-keeled and consistent when speaking to the media, even after what felt like a disastrous loss in Edmonton when Evander Kane scored a hat trick that started with under seven minutes to play in the third period. That could have been a loss that stuck with players for a while, but they bounced back with the shootout win against the Islanders, and that seemed to give them some confidence heading into Vancouver.
3-on-3 changes coming
Broadening the scope of this article a bit, there was a lot of chatter about potential changes to three-on-three overtime rules coming out of the general managers meetings last week. My first question is, “Why do we need to change it again?”
The closest answer I saw was the quote from Arizona Coyotes GM, Bill Armstrong. “The purpose of overtime is to end the game [before the shootout], and we need to make sure that continues to progress.”
So, I looked up the numbers.
Three-on-three was instituted before the 2015-16 season, so you can see the obvious and immediate impact it had on reducing the number of shootout games. But, that number has even been trending down slightly since its inception, so changes in tactics from coaches really haven’t made the shootout happen any more frequently.
I, for one, love the shoutout, even when a team’s shooters are slow and methodical about choosing their shot attempts. It adds a lot of anticipation.
If reducing shootouts is the goal, how about they just say… eliminate them altogether? For the record, I have never heard a fan complain about the three-on-three format other than it being too short.
Other musings
Regular readers will already know this, but the Kraken win over Vancouver was their first win on a Saturday this season. They improved to 1-4-1 on the season on Saturdays.
Alex Wennberg, Brandon Tanev, and Jamie Oleksiak all scored their first goal of the season over the last week.
It’s been nice to see Tanev back on the penalty kill. The team was solid on the PK early in the season without Tanev but has struggled as of late. Turbo’s speed brings a different element that might get teams second guessing when trying to pinch on a 50/50 puck.
One of my favorite moments of the game against the Canucks was when Jared McCann took a (clean) run at Elias Pettersson. I love the emotion McCann shows on the ice.
Eeli Tolvanen led the forwards in blocked shots last week. He is known for his shot, but he has looked good defensively. Offensively, he only has three goals on the season, which is fine, but he is still due for a breakout game with a couple goals. If he isn’t making a huge impact offensively, being able to block shots and help at Seattle’s end of the ice keeps him in the coaching staff’s good graces.
I have some feedback for Game Ops at Climate Pledge Arena. When there is a penalty in the game, show the replay BEFORE the game starts again. More than a few times last week, a penalty was called, but the replay did not show up on “The Twins” until after game play began. Anyone else notice this? We, as fans, need more time to be irate over the call.
Big congratulations to Everett native Kaden Shahan for being named to the US Junior Select team that will compete in the 2023 World Junior A Challenge in early December. Shahan played much of his youth hockey in the Seattle area. He now plays for the Sioux City Musketeers in the USHL where he has 15 goals and five points in 19 games. He is expected to play at the University of Connecticut next season.
Kraken prospect, Ty Nelson became the North Bay Battalion’s franchise leader in goals, assists, and points for a defenseman. Congrats, Ty!
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard scored two goals on Saturday night for HV71 in the Swedish Hockey League. He was a second-round selection of the Kraken in this most recent entry draft, and apparently, he had some sage advice for one the veterans before the game.
Former Seattle Thunderbird Luke Prokop made his AHL debut last week. Read about Luke’s inspiring story here.
Another former Seattle Thunderbird hit a significant milestone last week. Goaltender Thomas Milic won his first AHL game in a 3-2 win for the Manitoba Moose.
Player performances
Jordan Eberle (SEA) – After missing a few games after being cut by Jaden Schwartz’s skate in practice, Ebs has five points over the last three games. Eberle’s uptick in production has been a sight for sore eyes, as he struggled to contribute in the first part of the season.
Jani Nyman (SEA) – The Seattle Kraken’s second-round pick from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft continued his impressive season with a hat trick for Ilves against SaiPa on Saturday night. At 19 years old, he is tied for second in goals scored (11-5—16) in the Finnish Liiga.
Sidney Crosby (PIT) – I don’t know if anyone has heard of this guy before, but he has five goals over his last four games.
Goal of the week
This was Mølgaard’s second goal of the game and proved to be the game winner for HV71.
This was Alex Nedeljkovic’s second AHL goal. He then got recalled to the Pittsburgh Penguins and pitched a 38-save shutout against the Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday.
Chart of the week
The Seattle Kraken power play has significantly improved this season, and the team has become more dependent on it compared to last year.
Here is a look at the team’s power-play goal percentage compared to the rest of the league this season.
Another big and busy week
For as good as I feel about the team right now, they still have some work to do before we can really say they are a playoff contender. They have another critical week ahead, with three home games against division opponents over the next five days. The Kraken will look for redemption Monday against the Calgary Flames, who are not too far behind the Kraken in the standings.
Then, the Kraken will welcome the San Jose Sharks and Canucks in what I call the “Turkey Sandwich” on the days before and after Thanksgiving respectively. Four points should be the target with three being the minimum for good feelings.
Is there an area you want to dig into for next week? If so, let me know in the comments section, and I will see what I can do.
