The Kraken returned home after Saturday’s game in St. Louis with one measly point to show in the standings following a three-game road trip to open the 2023-24 season. In all three games so far, we can pinpoint moments where a bounce or two going Seattle’s way could have turned the tide and given the Kraken at least a chance to win. But that’s hockey, and you have to take advantage of your opportunities so that bad bounces aren’t as damaging.
Regardless of how the hockey gods are treating them right now, the fact is the Kraken haven’t been able to score goals thus far, so they head to their home opener with an unimpressive 0-2-1 record with just two combined goals in three games.
Saturday’s game was a little different than the previous two, in that the Kraken did so many things right and had every chance to come away victorious. They looked faster in transition, they maintained control of the puck through the entire overtime period, and they even got a power-play goal. They were on the front foot for a lot of the night.
“I thought the team played great; we played really well,” said goaltender Joey Daccord. “We did a lot of good things, we got a lot of chances. It just didn’t drop for us tonight, but if we keep playing like that, the puck will go in for us.”
Here are our Three Takeaways from an unsatisfying 2-1 Kraken shootout loss to the Blues.
Takeaway #1 (Curtis): Schwartz brings juice in return to St. Louis
Jaden Schwartz played with the St. Louis Blues for 10 seasons, including the 2018-19 Stanley Cup winning campaign. On Saturday, Schwartz returned to his former home arena as a visitor for only the second time, and it was clear he had a jump in his step early.
Schwartz played with excellent pace, perhaps the best we’ve seen in the regular season during his time with the Kraken. In the first period, he chased down Blues defenseman Justin Faulk in open ice and generated an extra possession. In the second period, he created a two-on-one opportunity with speed by driving wide. And he got in on another rush in the third.
But no play was more important than his net-front work on the power play early in the second period when he tracked an Oliver Bjorkstrand shot and tipped the puck past Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington. The goal gave Seattle its first lead of the season.
Even more significantly, Schwartz’s work broke the ice for the Kraken on the power play. Seattle had gone 0-6 (including a major penalty) through the first two games of the year. This power play futility had been a topicof conversation recently, but for one night at least, Schwartz took the pressure off that unit. Unfortunately, the Kraken didn’t get the opportunity to build on Schwartz’s success because the team didn’t draw any other power plays on the night.
Takeaway #2 (Darren): Nice outing by Joey
After he earned the full-time backup NHL job out of training camp for the first time in his career, we were curious to see what kind of performance Joey Daccord would have in his season debut.
“I felt pretty good in there,” said Daccord. “It was nice to be back in a real game.”
Good on coach Dave Hakstol for getting him in there early in the season and resisting the urge to keep riding Philipp Grubauer, who was coming off an outstanding game in Nashville.
Daccord rewarded Hakstol for the decision, and if he was at all nervous, it didn’t show. Daccord looked calm, cool, and collected throughout, and the one shot that beat him came from a prime scoring area, off a rush, by Jordan Kyrou. On that play, Jared McCann did a good job to back check and turn a three-on-two into a three-on-three, but he flew right by Kyrou, the eventual goal scorer.
Daccord stopped 24 of 25 shots, with his best save of the night coming against Sammy Blais with five minutes left in the third period.
On the play, Will Borgen stumbled, allowing Blais to barrel right in toward Daccord. But Joey stood his ground and got the left pad out to reject the scoring opportunity.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Blues had 2.29 expected goals for, meaning Joey stopped 1.29 goals more than he should have in the game. Hakstol called the performance “rock solid.”
That’s a nice start to Daccord’s career as a full-time NHLer.
Takeaway #3 (John): Penalty kill still perfect
One bright spot for the Seattle Kraken so far is their penalty kill. Saturday night against the Blues, the Kraken went to the kill four times and still kept their unblemished record intact.
“The special teams were solid tonight,” said Hakstol. “Our PK did a really good job.”
That brings the total of successful penalty kills this season to 11 out of 11. Though Seattle was quite good in these situations in the second half of last season, it was still an area that we expected to improve in 2023-24 with the additions of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Brian Dumoulin.
In Bellemare’s case, he is revered for his play in manpower disadvantage scenarios and ranked first for penalty kill time on ice amongst Tampa Bay forwards last season.
Bellemare’s defensive instincts especially shone through with three minutes left in the first period Saturday, when he intercepted a Robert Thomas pass and cleared the zone, despite not having a stick in his hands.
What a play by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare to deflect a pass and clear the zone on the PK… WITH NO STICK!
Jared McCann followed this up by ringing a shot loudly off the post at the other end. pic.twitter.com/lFIxFYXO6i
It is also important to note that Brandon Tanev, who has been a staple of the Seattle Kraken penalty kill unit, has been out the last two games with an injury.
Three games is still not a big sample, and last season, there were several stretches of five games or more where the Kraken did not allow a power-play goal. But we like what we have seen so far. With the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Rangers coming to town this week, the penalty kill unit will certainly be tested.
The puck drops at 7:00 pm PT tonight on a new season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds, the Kraken’s AHL affiliate. Between Josh Horton, me, and the rest of the Sound Of Hockey team, we hope to bring you more Firebirds and Kraken prospect coverage than ever this year. We’re brainstorming a few ideas on how to do that, so we hope you follow along. Let’s start our journey in the desert by reacquainting ourselves with the team, previewing the lineup, and identifying a few storylines to follow early this season.
But, before we get to that, an important public service announcement: The Firebirds’ opener tonight, October 13, against the Bakersfield Condors is free to stream on AHL TV. Check it out here.
Recapping the 2022-23 Season
In their inaugural season, the Firebirds made quite the impression. Coachella Valley racked up 103 points in the standings, second in the AHL only to the Calgary Wranglers. The team was strong across the board in the regular season, checking in with the third most goals scored and second best goal differential among the 32 AHL clubs. That strength extended into the goal with Joey Daccord tallying .918 save percentage in 38 regular season games.
The season culminated with a championship run that came agonizingly close to the Calder Cup. In their record-setting 26th postseason game, the Firebirds made it to overtime of game 7 of the finals against the Hershey Bears before a Mike Vecchione shot snuck by Joey Daccord to deliver victory to the AHL’s oldest franchise. Hard to imagine a tougher end to the season, but it is also hard to imagine a team and a fanbase that had more fun along the way than the 2022-23 Coachella Valley Firebirds.
The 2023-24 lineup
On October 10, 2023, the Coachella Valley Firebirds reassigned eight players to the Kansas City Mavericks of the ECHL, including 2022 7th round draft pick Kyle Jackson. This brought some clarity to the team’s initial roster, which stands at 27 players:
The team rotated the lines and pairs in their only preseason outing on October 8, 2023, so we don’t have a great sense of precisely how these players will fit together when the team takes the ice on Friday night.
Last season we often saw Kole Lind and captain Max McCormick skating together on a top line (often centered by the departed Alex True). I wouldn’t expect that change. Andrew Poturalski and Cameron Hughes were also stalwarts in the top-six, and I’d expect that to continue as well. On the blue line, the team’s top two left-shot defenseman return in Gustav Olofsson and Ryker Evans, but there has been some shuffling on the right side.
Without the benefit of being at practice or the preseason games, here is a guess (and I emphasize guess) at a lineup the team could deploy Friday night:
If the team holds out Shore or Hayden based on the injury situation in Seattle, I’d expect one of Robertson or Melanson to draw in.
Having shared this guesswork, I’ll also caution against overreacting to a veteran-heavy opening night lineup if Robertson, Melanson, or Ottavainen aren’t in there, for example. The team did not have much preseason ice time, particularly after the team’s first exhibition was canceled due to a power outage. After the Friday night opener, the team does not have another regular season game for eight days. This leaves ample runway for the Firebirds to practice and evaluate its group of young players before game number two.
How the Firebirds stack up around the AHL
Though several Seattle Kraken drafted prospects have begun to arrive in the desert, the team is still a year-or-two away from a “normal” situation where draft picks are regularly cycling in-and-out. As a result, the team remains heavy on veterans. According to data tracked by Elite Prospects, the Firebirds will start the 2023-24 season as the tenth-oldest AHL team based on average player age. (The Firebirds were the fifth-oldest AHL team by the same metric last year.)
This year’s squad will be increasingly reliant on speed and skill. While the team ranked among the top-ten tallest and heaviest teams last season, based on player averages, many of the squad’s larger players up front and on the blue line departed in the offseason. This leaves the team in the no. 25 in the league average player height and middle-of-the-pack in player weight.
The skill should still be there though. The team returns two top-20 scorers in Max McCormick and Kole Lind, another just outside the top-30 in Cameron Hughes, and a player in Andrew Poturalski who has led the AHL in scoring in the past (though he missed time with an injury last year). Add to this stable of veteran scorers a wave of younger players that have scored effectively at junior levels and the team should do well putting the puck in the net.
Finally, as I noted earlier in the summer, this is one of the more expensive rosters in the AHL. The Kraken have invested heavily in a winning development program. The product in Palm Desert should remain strong.
Andrew Poturalski skates at Climate Pledge Arena (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Key departures
The team sees its starting goaltender (and one of its emotional leaders), Joey Daccord, and third leading scorer, Tye Kartye, begin the season with the Seattle Kraken. Beyond that, the team lost its sixth leading scorer, Jesper Froden and inaugural Kraken Alexander True and Carsen Twarynski in free agency. On the blue line, the team lost its top scoring defenseman, Brogan Rafferty, and an experienced, tough player in Matt Tennyson. I don’t have many questions about the team’s scoring ability, but goal prevention will be an area to watch early in the season.
Key additions
Former Charlotte Checker and offensive-minded, right-shot defenseman Connor Carrick rejoins the Kraken organization for the 2023-24 season. In doing so, he’ll be reunited with former Checker teammate and fellow righty defenseman Cale Fleury, who will begin the season with Coachella Valley after sticking in Seattle for the entirety of the 2022-23 campaign. Marian Studenic is a proven and prolific AHL goal scorer up front the team added in free agency.
Coachella Valley also welcomes a group of six Kraken prospects to the team, each of whom could play a role at some point during the season: Shane Wright, Ryan Winterson, Tucker Robertson, Jacob Melanson, Logan Morrison, and Ville Ottaivenen.
Three storylines to watch early in the season
Shane Wright. This is the big one. Wright logged 32 games with the Firebirds last season, mostly in the playoffs, but it was amidst a “planes trains and automobiles” season that likely left his head spinning. This year, there is no such uncertainty about where he’ll play or how much he’ll play. Kraken GM Ron Francis told the media after Wright’s reassignment that the team had given Wright areas to work on and the team was looking forward to seeing him play heavy minutes in all situations. Wright’s development is the biggest storyline to follow from the Kraken perspective because the young forward’s potential is so high if he can put the pieces together.
Shane Wright skates during camp scrimmage (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The goaltending tandem. Chris Driedger should be the stronger half of a tandem in goal as he comes back from an ACL injury at the 2022 World Championships. If he can start to show he is still the player that the Kraken targeted and signed to be one of the team’s NHL goalies before its inaugural season, interest may grow internally and from other clubs to get him back to the NHL.
Driedger’s partner, Ales Stezka, is also interesting. Stezka is coming off an elite season in the Czech Extraliga, which is one of the best professional leagues in the world. Already 26 years old, he’s entering his goalie prime. If he can translate his high level play to North America, he’ll put Coachella Valley in a great position to win this season and give the Kraken a lot to think about when it comes to extending the relationship beyond Stezka’s current one-year deal.
Prospects that acclimate quickly. The story of Tye Kartye is well-known at this point. Despite coming in as an undrafted free agent, Kartye forced his way into the lineup of a talented Coachella Valley club last year. Then, as the season progressed, he worked his way up the lineup, and eventually he skated with the Kraken in the playoffs.
Is there a rookie that takes the same trajectory this year? That’s a hard standard to live up to, but it starts early in the season with ice time. Which young players have gained the coaching staff’s confidence and have seized a role?
Lesser known players like Morrison, Robertson, and Melanson all have the potential to do it. Morrison brings skill and offensive instincts if he can up his skating game like Kartye did. Robertson is a 200-foot center with high level hockey sense who could emerge if he can score just enough. Melanson is a physical player and agitator with enough skill to score in a professional lineup if he can maintain his sandpaper play style against bigger and faster competition. All eyes will be on them from Seattle.
It hasn’t been the hottest start to the Seattle Kraken’s season through two games, both of which they have lost while mustering just one combined goal. They scored zero against Jusse Saros and the Nashville Predators Thursday en route to a 3-0 loss.
After a decent first period, Seattle got dominated in every metric in the second period, but was largely bailed out by netminder Philipp Grubauer, who stopped 32 of the 34 shots he faced on the night. A shorthanded goal by Colton Sissons was a huge turning point for the Predators, though, and Seattle couldn’t find a way to fight back.
Colton Sissons gets a short-handed goal.
Oliver Bjorkstrand turned it over just inside the offensive blue line, and Cole Smith laid it out for Sissons to skate in on a breakaway.
“They took a lot of momentum out of that [shorthanded goal] for the second half of the second period,” said coach Dave Hakstol. “I wouldn’t say ‘chaotic’ is the word, but on the offensive side, a few too many missed nets.”
Here are our Three Takeaways from a 3-0 Kraken loss to the Predators.
Takeaway #1 (Darren): Grubauer’s awesome night spoiled
After Grubauer got off to rough starts in each of his first two seasons with the Kraken, we were curious if his stellar playoff run would carry into 2023-24. So far, we would say it has. While the German Gentleman gave up three goals on 27 shots against Vegas on Tuesday, we were unsure of what to make of his performance that night. His stat line wasn’t outstanding, and he did allow a goal on the first shot he faced, something we’ve seen from him many times before. But that goal was an easy tap-in off a rush, the second was a wonky redirect off a Brandon Tanev booboo, and the third was a partial breakaway.
Though he took another ‘L’ Thursday, there were no questions about his play in Nashville.
“Grubi’s been solid both nights here,” Hakstol said. “He’s been sharp, he’s seeing the puck well, and I really like his competitive level. So he played a good hockey game tonight.”
You could tell he was on his game early with how he was reacting to shots from in close and through traffic. Even with bodies in front, pucks were hitting him, and on plays where it seemed he shouldn’t have had enough time to react, he was still getting his extremities in the way.
Exhibit A:
Nice little reaction save by Grubauer on Cody Glass.
Grubauer’s best save of the game came just past the midway point of the second period, when Roman Josi found himself with the puck on his stick and plenty of net to shoot at. The Kraken netminder made two big pushes with his left skate to get all the way across his crease and throw his blocker in front of what looked like a sure goal.
It wasn’t just about the shot volume Grubauer faced. With Seattle playing way too loose, especially in the second period, the Predators seemed to be getting breakaway after breakaway after open look, and Grubauer kept standing tall. In fact, according to Natural Stat Trick Nashville generated 65 percent of the shot quality in all situations, including a whopping 86 percent in the second period.
Unfortunately for Grubauer and for the Kraken, his teammates weren’t able to give him any offensive support, and his superb night was wasted.
“Grubi’s been great the first two nights,” said Yanni Gourde. “I thought he was unreal again, kept us in the game the whole night… We’ve got to give him more leeway a little bit, find a few goals.”
Takeaway #2: Adam Larsson’s tough shift
Adam Larsson had a few great moments defensively on Thursday, especially when he sprinted back to thwart a prime scoring chance by Cole Smith in the first period. But he also had one terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad shift in the third period when a Gustav Nyquist goal that directed off his foot literally added insult to injury. It effectively wiped out any chance for a Kraken comeback.
Larsson tried to hit Filip Forsberg in the corner behind Grubauer, but Forsberg sensed it coming and caught Larsson with a high “reverse” hit, throwing his back into Larsson’s face and causing some damage to his nose and lip. Incensed, Larsson retaliated with a wicked cross check, which caused the official to put his arm up for a delayed penalty.
With Saros pulled for an extra skater during the delayed penalty, the Kraken couldn’t get ahold of the puck long enough to get a whistle. So Larsson went to the front of the net and kept whacking away at Forsberg, perhaps figuring he wouldn’t get another penalty, so he might as well get a couple more licks in. Well, as he stood there at the top of the crease, Nyquist got a nice deflection off Larsson’s skate, just to drive home what an unfortunate sequence it was for Seattle’s most consistent defensive defenseman.
2-0 Nashville.
Tough sequence for Adam Larsson. He looked stunned after a reverse hit from Forsberg. Then he took what would have been an undisciplined cross-checking penalty, but with the 6-on-5 during the delayed penalty, Gustav Nyquist banked it in… off Adam Larsson. pic.twitter.com/r9Hkgqp11k
Of course, Larsson is a top-pairing stud, and we think the world of him as a player. His undisciplined penalty was uncharacteristic, and having a shift like that that goes from bad to worse is almost unheard of. Still, it cost the Kraken significantly on this night.
Takeaway #3 (John): Power play struggling while improving
Yes, we are going to talk about the lack of production on the power play again (it was minus-one on the night), but we are seeing promising signs. The Kraken failed to cash in for the second straight game on Thursday, though they only had four minutes of power-play time versus Nashville compared to 11 minutes on Tuesday against Vegas. We talked about it quite a bit on the podcast this week, and my theory is that with the team making so many changes in this area compared to last season, it will take some time to get everyone on the same page.
One thing I called out on the podcast this week was, despite the lack of goals scored on the power play, the Kraken averaged 3.6 shot attempts per two minutes of power-play time Tuesday compared to last season’s average of 3.3 shot attempts. That’s hardly a significant sample size, but they were still generating chances.
On the Kraken’s first power play against Nashville, they generated three shot attempts, with all of those coming from what I would call the first power-play unit of Justin Schultz, Andre Burakovsky, Jared McCann, Matty Beniers, and Jordan Eberle.
On the second power-play opportunity, Hakstol sent out the second unit to start, but with one wrinkle; Gourde subbed in for Jaden Schwartz, and the other four players on that unit were Eeli Tolvanen, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Kailer Yamamoto, and Vince Dunn. If my counting is correct, that group had nine shot attempts on that power play and kept the puck in the offensive zone for almost the entire two minutes.
“We switched up the unit with some tired bodies coming off of the previous shift to draw the penalty,” said Hakstol. “They generated good O-zone time. We missed a couple pucks that were directed towards the net early in that power play, so you’d like to get those on the net and find a way to find rebounds later in the power play.”
After only two games, it is still not close to a significant sample size, but I believe this shows promise. To really know what we have going on the power play, it will take about 10 games to even start to form real opinions.
John and Darren are back from Vegas, where they were carousing and carrying on and also covering the Seattle Kraken opener against the Golden Knights. Unsurprisingly, they are cooked after a long and busy weekend. But, they make it through this episode with plenty of overreactions to that first game and lukewarm takes.
In this episode, the guys also talk about Seattle’s roster moves with Curtis and take a trip down on the farm, before Darren and Curtis shame themselves.
The Kraken season is officially underway, and while the effort was decent, Tuesday’s opening-night loss to the Golden Knights was deserved. Seattle made too many mistakes and left too many chips on the table (that’s a little Vegas gambling reference for you, in case you missed it) en route to a 4-1 loss.
The Golden Knights—on their Stanley Cup banner-raising night—continued their three-year dominance of the Kraken by improving to 8-1-0 against Seattle all time.
“They’re a good hockey team,” Jordan Eberle said of Vegas. “They’re the defending champs, they’re detailed, they have some skill over there, they have some size, they have it all.”
Here are our Three Takeaways from a tough opening night for Seattle.
Takeaway #1 (Curtis): A night of missed opportunities
The Kraken had their opportunities in this one. In particular, it looked like Seattle had the jump on Vegas in the first seven minutes of the game. The team was skating well, generated the first half-dozen shot attempts, including a few dangerous looks. They had the defending champs on the back foot early, struggling to generate anything offensively.
“I liked our start. We came out skating and aggressive, which I liked,” Eberle said.
Unfortunately, Brian Dumoulin lost coverage on the third Vegas forward into a transition rush at 7:16 of the first period and conceded a backdoor tip-in by Chandler Stephenson past goalie Philipp Grubauer. The goal came on Vegas’s first shot of the game, put energy back into the crowd, and handed over all of the momentum the Kraken had worked hard to generate.
There were plenty of good looks for Seattle throughout the night, including Will Borgen redirecting a Jamie Oleksiak pass wide of an open net and Adin Hill robbing Matty Beniers on a partial breakaway. But the Kraken couldn’t convert aside from one goal from Jared McCann when the Kraken had already spotted three to the Golden Knights.
From that first goal onward, Seattle couldn’t reclaim its pace advantage. A loose puck play here and a failed backcheck there, and the game was out of reach. The team was “just a half second late everywhere,” as McCann said.
Seattle’s run of having a fully healthy lineup lasted all of 30 minutes of hockey this season. Newcomer Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, killing a penalty in the second period, blocked a Shea Theodore blast with his left hand and could be seen shaking his glove as he skated to the bench and headed down the tunnel. Bellemare was absent for the rest of the second and some of the third, before reappearing to kill another late penalty. So, in theory, Bellemare is ok, but you know he’s going to be dealing with that for some time, even if he does remain available to play.
Before Bellemare could get back into the game, Brandon Tanev went down with what appeared to be something significant. Skating across center ice, Brett Howden caught Tanev with an unnecessary shoulder to the chin, and as Tanev fell, he also twisted his left leg awkwardly under his bodyweight. So, not only was there potential for a head injury on the play, but also a leg injury.
Brandon Tanev goes down following a collision with Brett Howden.
After spending several minutes down on the ice, being attended to by Seattle’s medical trainer, Tanev did skate off on his own power, but he unsurprisingly did not return. Worth noting, when Tanev tore his ACL two years ago, it was on his other leg.
Coach Dave Hakstol unsurprisingly did not give an update on Tanev’s status, but that’s standard for how the Kraken communicate injuries, so there’s nothing to read into there. Howden was assessed a match penalty that came with a five-minute major. More on that in a moment from Curtis.
Takeaway #3 (Curtis): Disjointed play on the man advantage
It is well documented that the Kraken struggled to translate their prolific five-on-five scoring touch into power-play success during the 2022-23 season. The team scored on just 19.8 percent of its power play opportunities last year, which ranked 21st overall in the league.
As the team made final preparations for the 2023-24 season, the power play was a frequent topic of conversation in media sessions. On Monday, Hakstol explained that the team had been working on integrating more player movement but cautioned that the team needed to “make sure the basics are there and not try to do too much.” On Tuesday before the opener against Vegas, Hakstol again recognized that the team “need[s] to get a little bit better” on the power play and “it’s about that competitive consistency on a nightly basis.”
Unfortunately, the Kraken couldn’t find that competitive consistency or the basics necessary to be successful against Vegas. To the contrary, Tuesday marked arguably the team’s worst power play performance since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. According to data from Natural Stat Trick, the Kraken had played in only three games with more than ten minutes of manpower advantage time across that timeframe–and Tuesday night was the only one of those three games in which the Kraken failed to score even one power-play goal. They even had a five-minute major opportunity, but could not get one by Hill.
It started with losing draws and chasing the puck, but the team also looked uncertain and uncoordinated when established in the offensive zone. One player would skate around with possession for five-to-ten seconds, not see an opening, and then defer to the next without generating a significant threat.
After the game, Eberle wasn’t mincing words on the team’s issues on the power play. “I thought we skated really aggressive[ly] and carried the play five-on-five, but the big one is the power play. We’ve got to find a way to get a timely goal there… There’s a bunch of things that we’ve got to correct… We’ve just got try to maybe simplify it.”
We thought it would be a good idea to convene the team and lock ourselves in on takes that will almost certainly age like a fine wine. It’s time for another “Sound Table” discussion. (Get it? Yeah, I’ll see myself out. Except I can’t because I have to participate. Also, that’s officially what we’re calling these moving forward.)
First goal of the season
Curtis Isacke: Let’s start things off on a light note. I’m going to steal this one from the Sound Of Hockey Discord. Who scores the first goal this season for the Seattle Kraken? Darren, the goalies are on the board for you.
Darren Brown: Thank you for the nudge, Curtis. While it wouldn’t shock me to see Joey Daccord pot one at some point this season, it feels unlikely that he would have an empty-net scenario before any Kraken skaters score. Of course, he theoretically could score with an opposing goaltender in net, but I just don’t see it. So, instead, I’ll go with Eeli Tolvanen. He’s been blasting away, so why not him? He did score thrice in preseason.
John Barr: I am going way off the board and will go with Kailer Yamamoto. It looks like he will be in the lineup in this first game against Vegas, and he should get power play time. He also scored thrice in preseason.
Curtis: Tolvanen was going to be my pick, Darren. I’ll look elsewhere, but not too far, keeping it among “the brothers” with Oliver Bjorkstrand.
Josh Horton: How about Andre Burakovsky coming off injury and scoring the team’s first goal? It would make a good story.
Most improved player or aspect of the team
Curtis Isacke: OK, let’s kick off the real questions on another high note. What areas are you optimistic about or just plain excited to see? John, let’s go to you first.
John: Defense. It’s not the most exciting area to focus on, and the team was relatively solid last season. But there was still room for improvement, and I feel we are underselling the impact newcomers Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Brian Dumoulin will have. A better defensive team should help out the goalies as well.
Darren: Since I wrote a whole story about the things the Kraken are doing to improve this area, I’m going to take the obvious one and say the power play should be better. Hakstol agreed with this Tuesday at morning skate and said, “Everybody wants to crap all over our power play from last year,” with his general sentiment being that there were some positive stretches, but also a lot of dry spells.
I’ve loved the creativity Seattle has shown in preseason, and I especially like Jared McCann in the central bumper spot. Not doing any crapping here, but I do hope to see fewer and shorter dry spells in 2023-24.
Curtis: For the second straight question, I’ll go to Bjorkstrand. After last season, Bjorkstrand was very honest saying he didn’t think he started the year with the necessary focus to play his best. I think he rights those problems from last year and tallies about 25 goals and 55 points (second-best career marks in both categories) in his second Kraken season, while also improving his production in the defensive zone.
Josh: The power play is definitely the low-hanging fruit here, but it really stands out to me. Darren’s comments above about how it looks visually inspires some hope, but changes are definitely needed, especially watching Seattle’s power play flounder at times last postseason.
Prospect you’re most interested to watch
Curtis: Is there a player not on the initial 22 man roster that has your eye this year? Why?
I’ll start this one. With an eye toward this season’s Kraken team, I’ll say Ryker Evans. I came away from camp this year believing his athleticism and mobility are unparalleled among Seattle defensemen, aside from Vince Dunn. His pure skills in transition and at the offensive blue line are probably better than any on the current Kraken roster.
In my viewings last year I thought his absolute ceiling was a second-unit power play quarterback and fourth defenseman; the type you’d really like to have on your third pair, but is a bit concerning on your second pair. After his training camp showing, I feel fairly confident he can be a second-pairing player and man a top PP unit. He just needs to iron out some rash defensive-zone decision-making, and he’ll be ready.
Ryker Evans (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Darren: You’re right, Curtis, all Kraken-fan eyes should be on how Evans performs in the early part of this season in Coachella Valley, because he is right there. I do feel a little ashamed that I predicted him making the team out of training camp, since… well… he didn’t, but Hakstol had to at least be thinking about keeping him.
Evans isn’t my pick, though, since choosing the same guy just isn’t all that interesting of a move for a Sound Table discussion. Instead, I’ll say I’m keeping tabs on David Goyette. He really impressed me in the split-squad game he played against Calgary on Sept. 25. He’s a smooth skater with good instincts, a shot, and playmaking abilities. He was named captain of the Sudbury Wolves upon his return to the OHL, and after scoring 92 points in 63 games last season, the second-round pick from 2022 is primed for a monster 19-year-old season. Goyette already has eight points in five junior games.
John: The most shocking thing in this article might be that Curtis talked about prospects and it wasn’t 2000 words long. We love him for it and imagine we will hear plenty about Coachella Valley all season. That said, speaking of Coachella… I am going to call out Ryan Winterton as my prospect to watch. Since being drafted, this will be the first start of a season in which he is healthy. When healthy in the OHL, he lit it up, including last season’s playoffs. Winterton had 13 goals and 29 points in those playoffs, which led the league in both of those categories. He looks hungry and excited to start his pro career. I would not be surprised if he is a second-half call-up if the Kraken face any injuries.
Josh: I’m going to be keeping a keen eye on what Jagger Firkus does in what will almost certainly be his final WHL season. The Moose Jaw Warriors are stacked with talent, including linemate and Penguins first-round pick Braden Yager, and they appear to be contenders for the Memorial Cup in a wide open WHL Eastern Conference.
Through just five games, Firkus has 10 points – a 136-point pace. That’ll do!
Any second guessing from the 2023 offseason
Curtis: Put on your general manager hat. What move would you have made in the offseason that would have gone in a different direction from one taken by Ron Francis and his front office? John, I’ll send it to you first.
John: Not really. It’s tough to look at the departures and the acquisitions and definitively say, “They got better.” That is ok in my book. Small as they were, the moves give the Kraken a lot of cap flexibility to add if the situation calls for it.
Darren: It’s not really a move they made, but one they didn’t make. I was hoping all summer for a Burakovsky- or Bjorkstrand-esque move to bolster the top of the lineup, but it never came. I’ve come to live with this and still think it’s possible the Kraken exceed what they did last season, but I complained about the lack of a splash all summer, so why stop now?
Josh: I don’t have many second thoughts on the offseason – it seemed like they came in with a plan to fill minor holes on the roster and accomplished that goal. I will parrot Darren’s sentiment about adding some more scoring punch to bolster an already balanced lineup. I thought that could be a way to significantly elevate Seattle’s roster, but ultimately that didn’t materialize for whatever reason.
Curtis: I understand the theory behind signing Brian Dumoulin, but weighing the value he can deliver at this point against a handful of forwards who could have been had for the same or less (e.g., Evan Rodrigues, Pius Suter, or, to a lesser extent, Sam Lafferty), I would have preferred to invest in a bottom-six center instead. I also would have considered keeping the cap space open. Cheaper (e.g., Mike Reilly) or internal options on the blue line could have slotted in the same third-line role Dumoulin projects to fill at this point. The signing also took them out of the running for a bigger splash move like Darren had in mind.
Award the team MVP
Curtis: John, Darren, and I discussed who we thought might lead the team in scoring during the the 2023-24 season on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. (John’s surprise choice actually led the team in preseason scoring. Foreshadowing? Or did John think he was picking the preseason leading scorer?) Today, we want to know who the team’s most valuable player will be? Who contributes the most to winning this year, Darren?
Darren: I’ll do a little zag to the zig you’re expecting me to take and say Bjorkstrand. After a very slow start to his first season in Seattle, he found chemistry with Yanni Gourde and Tolvanen, and now he gets to start the season playing with those guys. I expect him to be a key piece in potential Kraken success this season.
I’m calling it now, and I’m going even higher with my estimate than the one Curtis made earlier: Bjorkstrand will score 30 goals for the first time in his career. That may not lead the team–hopefully it doesn’t–but his all-around game will make him the most important contributor.
John: I am going to go with Burakovsky. He was the Kraken leader in points at the time of his injury, and I have no reason to think he won’t put up a similar pace for a full season. That’s it. Burakovsky. Final answer.
Curtis: Many credit the depth scoring and a stabilized situation in goal for the turnaround in the standings from Kraken year one to year two. Those improvements were important, no doubt. But, similarly important was the emergence of Vince Dunn as a viable No. 1 defenseman. During the inaugural season, Dunn’s highlights were almost equally balanced by frustrating mistakes. That changed in year two, a season in which Dunn earned every bit of his new $7.35 million AAV contract. If the Kraken are going to be back in playoff contention in 2023-24, it’s going to be because Dunn again props up the offense and transition play from the blue line. No other Kraken defender brings Dunn’s blend of skills. (I’m high on Evans, but I don’t think he’s quite ready yet.) Getting optimistic, I’ll name Dunn as the most valuable Kraken.
Vince Dunn (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Josh: For me, if Seattle is going to take the next step as a franchise, its foundational young player must take a similar step. I expect Matty Beniers to take a leap forward offensively this year, to go along with all of the other terrific things he does on defense and away from the puck, and be the heart and soul of this Seattle team.
Predict the Kraken season
Curtis: Here is the big one. Give us your point total for the team, Seattle’s final place in the Pacific Division standings, and make a prediction on whether the team makes the playoffs, and, if so, how far they go.
I’ll take the heat first. I don’t think this team has quite enough offensive firepower to reliably score with individual skill plays through the neutral zone or once set up in the offensive end, and–although I think it will improve, Darren, as you said earlier–it still seems unlikely to me that the power play will be a true strength. I feel confident projecting Jared McCann as a 30-plus-goal scorer, deploying an elite shot across all gameplay situations. Setting aside McCann, though, it’s difficult to see volume scoring. They’ll score at a good clip based of their pace, discipline, and depth, but I don’t expect them to lead the league in five-on-five scoring again.
All of this makes me think they’re more of a 90-point team than last year’s 100-point unit. If a few breaks go their way and they add a piece or two at the trade deadline, I could see a playoff push, but I’ll project them to finish just outside the playoff field: fifth in the Pacific, falling just behind Calgary for a year.
See why I wanted to go first? Let’s round things out with a little more optimism, shall we, Darren?
Darren: How did you know I would be optimistic, Curtis? Like I said, I see the team marginally improving over last season. I’m hopeful the tinkering done by Francis brings better team defense, and to me, the biggest thing is having Burakovsky and Tolvanen both in the lineup for (hopefully) the full season. Remember, there wasn’t much overlap there in 2022-23. Tolvanen played his first game with Seattle on Jan. 1, and Burakovsky played hurt for a while, then suffered his season-ending groin tear on Feb. 7.
If Seattle has relatively good health, the team is deeper than it was for almost all of last season. I also think Philipp Grubauer’s playoff success will help him get out to a better start to this season. So, I’ll say the Kraken will have 105 points and finish third in the Pacific behind Edmonton and Vegas. Give me the “exacta box” bet on those two teams, though, as I don’t want to pick first and second place. Seattle will be a few points ahead of Los Angeles and a few more points ahead of Calgary.
John: Between Daniel Sprong, Ryan Donato, and Morgan Geekie, 44 goals left the team, so the question is can a full season of Tolvanen and Burakovsky plus contributions from Yamamoto and Tye Kartye backfill for those goals? Probably not, but those guys should be able to make up a lot of the difference. So I think the team is well positioned to return to the playoffs, and I say they do it. Let’s go with 101 points and second in the Pacific.
Josh: Seattle will finish third in the Pacific. The Oilers and Golden Knights are too powerful to overcome, but the Kings, who signaled they are trying to contend by trading for Pierre-Luc Dubois, may experience some growing pains both with new lineup additions and in net. Ultimately, I expect Seattle to be competitive in a really good Pacific Division, but finishing third leads to a first-round showdown with Edmonton or Vegas, and I’m not confident Seattle has the firepower to overcome either of those teams.
In the middle of last offseason, I went through a forecasting exercise to analyze the Seattle Kraken roster and evaluate the team’s playoff chances after its offseason acquisitions. Historical data says that NHL teams with positive adjusted goal differential on the season have at least a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. Entering 2022-23, reaching the Stanley Cup Playoffs seemed like a huge stretch considering the Kraken were coming off a negative-59 goal differential that was good for 30th out of 32 teams in the league.
I was viciously mocked (not really) for even mentioning the word playoffs last offseason. At the end of the exercise, I forecasted the Kraken had a roster that could produce a negative-7.7 goal differential which would have given them a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs heading into the 2022-23 season.
Now that we’re ready to start the 2023-24 season, let’s look back at how the previous forecast did and also set expectations for this season.
Looking back at the 2022-23 forecast
Before we dig into the current Seattle Kraken roster, it is always useful to evaluate how the forecasting model performed last season to see if we can refine the process.
Here is a look at the player-by-player forecast and how it performed against what actually happened. As a reminder, we are using adjusted goals, which eliminates empty-net and shootout goals.
The forecasting model was under by 32 goals, largely driven by Jared McCann, Daniel Sprong, and Jamie Oleksiak’s variances. At the time I did last season’s forecast, Sprong was not on the roster. Even so, had he been on the roster, I would not have pegged him with 21 goals over 66 games.
Forecasting Shane Wright with 14.9 goals was an obvious miss on the forecast. He bounced between the NHL, AHL, back to the NHL, World Juniors, back to the OHL, and then eventually back to the AHL He scored one goal in the NHL.
Picking up Eeli Tolvanen on waivers is not something anyone could have foreseen in August, 2022. It was a huge steal for the Kraken and ended up being key to their success on the back half of the season.
Oleksiak was a pleasant surprise. After scoring one empty-net goal from his own goal line during the 2021-22 season, he posted a career-high nine goals during the 2022-23 season. I’m not sure how I could have foreseen that output, but his production offsets my expectation for Carson Soucy, which is how the forecast is supposed to work.
Overall, I felt the forecast model performed well with offsets on both sides of the equation.
Kraken departures and arrivals for 2023-24
The Kraken had quite a few goals leave the team this offseason. Sprong and Morgan Geekie did not receive qualifying offers, and Seattle did not re-sign unrestricted free agents Ryan Donato or Soucy. That is 47 goals that left the team.
In free agency, the Kraken added Kailer Yamamoto, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Brian Dumoulin, totaling just 15 goals last season. In addition to the free agents, playoff legend Tye Kartye will be starting the season on the NHL roster.
On the surface, the net of the roster changes looks like a significant deficit to make up for in the 2023-24 season. Let’s dig into the forecast to predict how it will shake out.
Forecasting the forward goal production
My base assumption is players will produce goals at the same rate per game they did in the prior season. Additionally, my forecast for games played is a general average of the regulars in the season prior. For the bottom three forwards, I anticipate a bit of interchanging going on through the season, so assume they will not play as regularly as the top nine. Once I have the base assumptions around goals and games played, I’m making small adjustments based on additional information gathered last season.
Forward adjustments
With another year under his belt, I anticipate Matty Beniers to increase his goal production. To keep it conservative, I increased his goal rate per game by 10 percent.
Oliver Bjorkstrand seemed to start the 2022-23 season uncharacteristically snakebitten, but finished the second half of the season producing more in line with his normal levels. He would finish the season with his fewest goals per game over the last five years. I increased his goal rate by 5 percent to be comparable with his last three seasons.
I also adjusted McCann’s production down by 10 percent due to his uncharacteristically high shooting percentage during the 2022-23 season.
Kartye is a bit of a guess that is loosely based on his 2022-23 AHL season and a bit of his playoff games.
There were no adjustments to Andre Burakovsky’s rate projections, but it is worth pointing out that a full season of Burakovsky should add at least another seven goals.
Forecasting the defense goal production
The forecast for defense will work very similarly to the forwards with a rate per game based on historical production. The top six defense lineup seems rather set, but we can almost guarantee those six will not all play 82 games, so I’m reducing their average to 75.
Defensemen adjustments
The only adjustment I made to the defense is cutting Oleksiak’s rate in half compared to his career high in the 2023-24 season.
I do expect Ryker Evens to play some NHL games this season, and he is a more offensive-minded defenseman that will score goals. But there are too many unknowns to build him into the forecast.
Goals against
Before we put the final goal differential together, we need to recognize the other piece of the formula, adjusted goals against that are expected to be scored against Seattle. Last season, the Kraken allowed 242 adjusted goals against. Modeling goals against is a challenge, but I do believe the additions of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Brian Dumoulin will be a net gain defensively for the Kraken this season compared to the offseason departures of Geekie and Soucy. We can conservatively estimate that those new guys can save the Kraken five goals against over the season. Based on this logic, the adjusted goals against estimate is going to be last season’s goal total of 242 minus the five goals we are estimating from the defensive contributions of Bellemare and Dumoulin.
Putting it all together
If you total the goal forecast and subtract the goals against forecast/estimate, you get a goal differential of plus 19.4 goals. That would put any team in the 92 percent range of qualifying for the playoffs.
This feels a bit high based on other NHL analysts’ projections, but a lot of those same analysts were horribly wrong last season, so why would we think they will nail it this season? Additionally, there are several opportunities for improvement for Seattle, such as the power play, goaltending, and face-offs that can directly or indirectly improve the Seattle Kraken’s goal differential.
Overall, I know this is a very simple forecasting process, but there is no sense in using a flamethrower to light a candle when all you need is a match. In keeping it basic, things look pretty good heading into the 2023-24 Kraken season.
On Saturday, the Kraken announced the team’s final round of training camp cuts, reducing the active roster to 22 players. This is one below the active player maximum of 23 players.
First, the Kraken announced waiver-exempt young players Ryker Evans and Shane Wright would be reassigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds of the AHL. Then, the team announced forward John Hayden, defenseman Cale Fleury, and goalie Chris Driedger were being waived for the purpose of being reassigned to the AHL as well. Every other NHL team will have the opportunity to claim these players. We will know whether any of the three were claimed by 11:00 am PT Sunday.
Additionally, the following players have been placed on waivers for the purpose of being reassigned to Coachella Valley:
On Friday night in Edmonton, the Kraken coaching staff deployed what looked like a dress rehearsal lineup for the opener in Vegas on Tuesday. Those groupings stayed together during Saturday morning’s skate at the Kraken Community Iceplex, with the notable addition of Vince Dunn as a full-practice participant. This suggests to us that we may very well see an opening-night lineup that looks like this:
What else did we learn from Saturday’s roster maneuvering? Here are a few quick notes on the last few players to make and miss the Kraken roster and Seattle’s approach as we near the regular-season opener.
Brandon Tanev skates against the Washington Capitals. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Kraken roster at 22 players
The Kraken could have kept one of the five players moved off the roster on Saturday and remained at the 23-player roster maximum. Instead, the team decided to reduce the roster to 22 players. Why? Reducing to 22 players now potentially gives the team added flexibility at the 23rd roster spot to move waivers-eligible players in and out of that position. After a player passes through waivers once, the player can be moved back-and-forth from the AHL and NHL without being put on waivers again if the player has not played in 10 NHL games or been on the NHL roster for 30 days.
The team may have viewed waiting to waive an additional player as risky. I haven’t seen research confirming this, but there is a common line of thinking that it is relatively easier to sneak a player through waivers at the end of training camp when the wire is inundated with alternatives than it would be four weeks into the season, for example, when the waiver wire is more scarce and roster needs and injuries have started to mount across the league.
It is entirely possible the spot is filled before opening night if, for example, Vince Dunn isn’t ready to go that night. If the spot remains open for a while, the advantage of keeping only 22 players is that the team will accrue additional cap space that could be utilized later, as needed. (See this article from last year on how cap accrual works.)
Last players in
Tye Kartye
Kartye played his way onto the team, plain and simple. Before camp, there was a thought that the best way to preserve Seattle’s depth would be to send Kartye down to begin the year. But, as camp progressed, it became clear that the Kraken would be a worse team without the versatile Kartye on the ice. He appears primed to start the season on the fourth line, but don’t be surprised if he fills many different roles over the course of the year.
Kailer Yamamoto
Yamamoto had a solid preseason, showing offensive instincts and puck-handling skills. It seems he may be the forward scratch on opening night, but he should draw into the lineup quickly. Like Kartye, he has versatility to fill various lineup spots as needed.
Jaycob Megna
Megna is a great fit as the team’s seventh defenseman. He’s on a minimum contract, and if you need to draw him into the lineup for a game, he’ll provide solid defense and value on the penalty kill. He is also an established veteran likely at the top of his development arc. The team doesn’t need to be concerned that it is harming any further progress by keeping Megna inactive, as long as the others on the blue line are performing. (This was our concern with keeping Cale Fleury in this role.)
Joey Daccord
The story of Joey Daccord making the team is similar to Tye Kartye’s tale. A strong 2022-23 postseason run paired with a strong 2023-24 preseason made it difficult to deny that he deserved the shot on the NHL roster. Daccord still has not established himself as an NHL-caliber backup goalie, but he has earned the opportunity to make that jump this season.
Last players out
Shane Wright
Wright’s official reassignment to the AHL confirms the earlier reported agreement between the Kraken, CHL, and NHL waiving certain eligibility requirements in the CHL-NHL transfer agreement. This was the common-sense solution, and we’re glad to see it. Wright had a solid preseason in our eyes, but we like the idea of him receiving heavy minutes in all situations as a top-nine option in Coachella Valley. This is a big year for Wright, and we will be watching closely.
Shane Wright skates against the Calgary Flames. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Ryker Evans
The reassignment of Ryker Evans makes us think Vince Dunn will be a go for opening night. As for Evans, there is little doubt in our eyes that he is one of Seattle’s six most talented defensemen. But he had difficulty managing a handful of defensive situations during full NHL-speed gameplay in each of the last few preseason games. This underscored to us that there is still some work he can do. If there is a long-term injury to a left-shot defenseman this season, we think Evans is the primary option, above Megna.
Cale Fleury
Fleury also had a solid camp, showing improvements over last year. But given his age and development, as well as the rest of Seattle’s depth chart on the blue line, waiving him makes sense to us. He played sparingly last year, relegated to inactive status for the vast majority of the 2022-23 season. This is less than optimal for a (then 23-year-old) defenseman you believe may have an NHL future.
If Fleury clears waivers, it will give him a chance to take regular top-four minutes with the Firebirds early this year, and he’ll remain a top option if there is a long-term injury on the right side. If Fleury is claimed, Seattle’s earlier successful waiver of Connor Carrick ensures that Seattle will still have a righty blueliner capable of filling a top role with the Firebirds.
John Hayden
If Hayden clears waivers, we think he has the inside track for a short-term fill-in role on the fourth line or as an extra skater, should injuries strike. He brings sturdy, physical play and a positive presence in the room. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him back with Seattle soon. For now, it makes sense to put him through waivers and await a need to have him with the NHL club.
Chris Driedger
We don’t think Driedger lost the backup job so much as Daccord won it. The economics of Driedger’s contract also factors in here, since it is relatively unlikely another team will claim Driedger and his $3.5 million AAV contract for this season. Few teams even could do that. Playing as the main goaltender in Coachella Valley will be a good thing for Driedger, as he looks to reestablish himself after the ACL injury that cost him most of the 2022-23 season.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
It wasn’t quite the game the Seattle Kraken wanted to close out their preseason, but it wasn’t terrible, either. Seattle had a poor start, and at one point trailed 10-1 in shots on goal. But things balanced out as the game wore on, except on the scoreboard, which eventually tipped Edmonton’s way.
Coach Dave Hakstol called it a hard game to evaluate, because for the first 10 minutes or so, the Kraken couldn’t get the puck. But then he said he liked the next 20 or 25 minutes, which makes sense because Seattle really took over for that portion, and Jared McCann even opened the scoring in the game with a banger of a shot.
Though the team was still carrying 27 players on its roster, this was the final dress rehearsal before the regular season begins Tuesday. Here are our Three Takeaways from a 3-1 preseason loss to the Oilers.
Takeaway #1 (Darren): Grubi got the game he needed
On the latest Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we said we wanted to see a full, solid performance from netminder Philipp Grubauer before real games get underway. With 22 saves on 25 shots, Friday didn’t bring the most dazzling stat line, but Grubauer looked pretty dialed in from the jump. It was a good thing, too, because it took a while for the Kraken to get their tentacles under them. Had Grubauer been off in the early going, this game would have turned sideways quickly.
The previous game Grubauer had played was also against Edmonton in Seattle on Monday. That was an awkward one for him, as he only faced 13 shots and went long stretches without facing an Oiler offering, yet he allowed three goals. He was much busier Friday, as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and others were active early and often.
The goals Grubauer allowed Friday were all fine goals to allow. McDavid’s was an easy tap-in off a two-on-one rush that followed a defensive breakdown by the Kraken. The second was a power-play snipe off a rush by Hyman, and the third—which initially looked like one Grubauer may have wanted back—was a rocket shot that appeared to change directions off Yanni Gourde’s stick.
On the flip side, Grubauer made some excellent saves off breakaways and backdoor opportunities that gave the impression he is ready for the regular season. He has gotten out to rough starts in each of the last two seasons, but he is also coming off an outstanding playoff run. For the sake of Kraken fans, here’s hoping his postseason success carries over.
There’s room for improvement after this game, but we aren’t sounding any goaltending-related alarm bells at this time. That’s a good thing.
Takeaway #2 (John): Power play continues to impress
The Kraken power play has been an area of interest with the Sound Of Hockey team for a while, so there could be some human behavior bias here. But my eyes told me the power play looked really good. Yes, they did go zero-for-four on their manpower advantage opportunities, but there were moments against the Oilers where the Kraken maintained offensive pressure and were whipping the puck around the zone to eventually create scoring opportunities. I really liked McCann’s placement in the slot, where—if the team can get him the puck—he is automatically in a high-danger location.
Does the data reflect what my eyes have been seeing? It is not a big sample, but the Kraken were 50 percent in the face-off circle with the man advantage against Edmonton. That is 5 percentage points higher than their average last season. Excluding the Abbotsford game on Wednesday, where the data was not available, the Kraken finished the preseason at 57 percent at the face-off dot when on the power play.
Face-offs are generally not a huge statistic to focus on, but with the many struggles of the power play last season, we hypothesized that winning more face-offs on the power play would eventually lead to more possession. That, in turn, should lead to more goals. So far, so good in that area.
On the shot attempt side of the house, the Kraken had 16 shot attempts across the eight minutes of power-play time, which shook out to four shots per power play. Again, it’s a small sample size, but that is up from 3.3 shot attempts per two-minute power play from last season. That’s a big jump.
The power play is still not operating at 100 percent, because it isn’t scoring much yet, but there are some early signs this will improve from last season.
Takeaway #3 (Darren): ‘Twas an NHL lineup
With this being the finale to the meaningless portion of the season, both teams dressed similar lineups to what we will see on opening night. For Seattle, Tye Kartye was in the game on the fourth line, and Ryker Evans skated on the top pair with Adam Larsson.
The one caveat to Hakstol icing a true NHL lineup was Vince Dunn, who was held out Friday and whose status for Tuesday remains murky. He did participate in Friday’s morning skate, the first time he has practiced with the team since mysteriously going missing a week ago (he had been doing drills on his own for a few days). Will he be ready for Vegas on Tuesday?
Another question, if Dunn is ready, does that mean Kartye goes down to the AHL to start the season, or does he stay with the NHL team and push somebody else into the press box? Those questions will be answered soon.
Worth noting, Evans led all Kraken skaters with 21:13 of ice time and had some good looks offensively. Defensively, it wasn’t his best game of the preseason, as he seemed to get crossed up with partner Adam Larsson on a few occasions.
Meanwhile, it was interesting to see Kailer Yamamoto and Shane Wright scratched from the lineup in favor of Kartye. It’s no surprise at this point that Kartye appears destined for the NHL roster, but we weren’t sure which veteran he would overtake for playing time. Looks like the answer there could be Yamamoto, at least to start the season. We still think Wright is destined for big minutes in Coachella Valley to start the season, but we shall see.
Kartye played on the fourth line with Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Brandon Tanev and also got power-play time. It’s not the ideal spot for the youngster, but the other three lines are solidified for now. We just don’t see a way to bump him up to play with more skilled players, unless somebody gets hurt or the team falters early in the season.
The Kraken have four more roster cuts to make before Tuesday’s opener.
It is no secret that an area where the Seattle Kraken have an opportunity to improve this season is their power play. That’s not to say it was horrible all last season – Seattle ranked 21st in the league – but isolating just playoff teams, they ranked 14th out of the 16 teams that qualified for the postseason. We recently posted a breakdown on how the team looks to improve the power play by starting off with a different look this season.
To get a better understanding of how the power play performed last season, I spent some time digging into the numbers and wanted to share my findings.
Pre-Burakovsky/Post-Burakovsky
There is a commonly cited theory that the Seattle Kraken power play took a huge hit when Andre Burakovsky went down with a season-ending groin injury in 2022-23. Let’s look at the numbers.
With a 0.9 percent drop in production after the injury, that theory might have merit. The fact of the matter, though, is that power play percentages drop later in the season.
At the time of the injury, Burakovsky led the team in power-play points with 14 and was second among forwards with 126:37 of power-play ice-time. Losing a weapon like Burakovsky was significant, but I do not think the team will improve drastically this season just because Burakovsky is back. The Kraken do need to make other tweaks, as Darren laid out in his article last week.
Power-play possession
There were times last season where it felt the power play was spending a disproportionate amount of time on the power play outside of the offensive zone. Some of this sentiment was driven by low face-off percentages with the manpower advantage. A common scenario was that the Kraken would start a power play with an offensive-zone face-off. They would lose the draw and possession, and the opposing team would clear the puck out of the zone, killing 10 to 15 seconds of the Kraken power play.
Although not a perfect proxy for possession, the Kraken were second to last in power-play face-off percentage last season.
The other area where the Kraken appeared to struggle without Burakovsky was offensive-zone entries. I am unaware of publicly available (a.k.a. “free”) data on zone entries, but one thing we can evaluate is the rate of shot attempts on a power play. Again, it’s not perfect for analyzing offensive-zone possession time, but it is a very good proxy, since the more often you have the puck in the offensive zone, the more likely you will have a shot attempt.
To show my work, I counted all the shot attempts (shots, blocked shots, missed shots) on a power play then divided by a team’s total power play to get shot attempts per power-play second. To make the number more relatable, I multiplied the shot attempts per power play second by 120 seconds. That gets us a shot attempt rate per two minutes, the usual length of a power play.
Using the shot attempts rate by power play time, we can see that the Kraken did have an issue with possession on the power play last season. The Kraken ranked 25th and last amongst playoff teams in generating shots per two minutes of power play time. We do not know the root cause of this issue, but it is probably a combination of face-off percentage on the power play, zone entries, and maintaining possession in the offensive zone. This shot attempt rate is something we will keep an eye on in the coming season.
Dry spells
During training camp last week, coach Dave Hakstol called out droughts and a lack of consistency that hurt the power play last season.
I certainly remember the Kraken going through dry spells, but I have always thought that is part of the cyclical nature of a hockey season. This is another area to focus on this season. Are the dry spells shorter and less frequent? Let’s hope so.
Who is getting the PP time?
Finally, I wanted to look at who was getting the power-play ice time and identify any potential changes for the upcoming season. To do that, I wanted to look at how the power-play time changed over the season, particularly before and after the Burakovsky injury.
The table shows that Eeli Tolvanen and Yanni Gourde picked up the extra time when Burakovsky went down in early February. With Burakovsky starting this season healthy, you can anticipate his power-play time to come back, but Tolvanen should remain on the power play with the departure of Daniel Sprong in the offseason. Sprong was on the ice for 40 percent of the Kraken’s power play when he was in the lineup.
Power play outlook
Without any substantial personnel changes to the Seattle Kraken roster this offseason, the changes will need to come from within. Getting Burakovsky back to start the season will certainly help, but the team will need to create different looks and options if it expects improvement in production. The Kraken’s new approach has showed promise in preseason. Will it carry over to the regular season?
