Ranking every NHL-affiliated prospect

Ranking every NHL-affiliated prospect

You’ve heard of a top-100 prospects list. But who needs those? At Sound Of Hockey we set out on a much more reckless endeavor: Let’s rank every skater prospect (both drafted and signed players) that meet two criteria entering the 2023-24 season: (1) younger than 25 years old, and (2) fewer than 50 NHL games played.

While we likely missed a few along the way, our research turned up 1027 skaters meeting these criteria–and we ranked them all. Our ranking is built on Thibaud Chatel’s NHL equivalency research and uses only quantifiable measures: prospect points per game, strength of the player’s current league, prospect age, and prospect height, with a minor adjustment for positional value. 

The approach we used was similar to our approach in making a data-based ranking of 2023 NHL Draft and 2024 NHL Draft prospects. If you want the full gory details on method, check out this post describing the process from earlier this offseason.

For current purposes, it is likely sufficient to reiterate that this is a true “data-only” ranking with no adjustments for subjective preferences or the “eye test.” For example, Connor Bedard would be my No. 1 prospect if I were assembling a personal list, but the NHL equivalency-based approach I used here puts him fourth. 

This “data-only” exercise is meant to compliment traditional scouting assessments. Are there players that the scouting lists have overlooked? If so, we can dig in and try to figure out if the player is simply under-appreciated or if there is a flaw in the player’s game that could hold the player back. The data is helpful in honing in on these outlier cases that may be worthy of a second look (for good or bad).

Without further ado, you can find the full ranking, with a lot of data on each prospect HERE.

Important note on using the NHL affiliate prospect ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 3, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.

Which prospects have the most impressive data profiles?

Based on prospect scoring, strength of league, age, height, and position only, here is your “data-only” top-100 prospects.

Prospect RankingFull NameTeamPositionHeight (ft in)AgeDraft YearDraft PickChatel NHLe (unadjusted)
1Adam FantilliCBJC6′ 2″182023338.59
2Alexander NikishinCARD6′ 3″2220206945.41
3Matvei MichkovPHIRW5′ 10″182023739.01
4Connor BedardCHIC5′ 10″182023135.55
5David JiricekCBJD6′ 4″192022629.99
6Brandt ClarkeLAKD6′ 2″202021833.58
7Joakim KemellNSHRW5′ 11″1920221735.64
8Jiri KulichBUFC5′ 11″1920222833.46
9Logan CooleyARIC5′ 10″192022332.83
10Kaiden GuhleMOND6′ 2″2120201633.55
11Luke HughesNJDD6′ 2″202021426.22
12Leo CarlssonANAC/RW6′ 3″182023226.57
13Lukas ReichelCHILW/RW6′ 0″2120201737.81
14Lane HutsonMOND5′ 9″1920226226.22
15Jakob PelletierCGYLW/C5′ 9″2220192646.50
16Quentin MustySJSLW6′ 2″1820232624.80
17William SmithSJSC6′ 0″182023426.08
18Luke EvangelistaNSHRW6′ 0″2120204237.38
19Marco RossiMINC5′ 9″222020941.72
20Gabriel PerreaultNYRRW5′ 11″1820232325.83
21Marat KhusnutdinovMINC/LW5′ 11″2120203735.51
22Simon NemecNJDD6′ 1″192022223.47
23Jimmy SnuggerudSTLRW6′ 1″1920222326.65
24Ryker EvansSEAD5′ 11″2120213531.29
25Roby JarventieOTTLW6′ 2″2120203332.60
26William EklundSJSC/LW5′ 11″202021733.03
27Nikita GrebyonkinTORLW/RW6′ 2″20202213529.11
28David ReinbacherMOND6′ 2″182023520.49
29Juuso ParssinenNSHC/LW6′ 3″22201921039.11
30Jeremie PoirierCGYD6′ 1″2120207227.38
31Jean-Luc FoudyCOLC5′ 11″2120207533.90
32Alexander HoltzNJDRW6′ 0″212020734.77
33Ridly GreigOTTC/LW6′ 0″2120202832.16
34Nikolai KovalenkoCOLRW/LW5′ 10″23201817153.56
35Jordan SpenceLAKD5′ 10″2220199534.33
36Simon EdvinssonDETD6′ 6″202021622.60
37Ville HeinolaWPGD6′ 1″2220192031.73
38Justin BarronMOND6′ 2″2120202527.81
39Graeme ClarkeNJDRW6′ 0″2220198037.38
40Jordan DumaisCBJRW5′ 8″1920229626.76
41Tyson FoersterPHIRW6′ 2″2120202332.16
42Cutter GauthierPHILW/C6′ 2″192022524.73
43Nikita AlexandrovSTLC6′ 1″2320196240.42
44Fabian LysellBOSRW5′ 11″2020212129.12
45Matthew PoitrasBOSC5′ 11″1920225425.14
46Colby BarlowWPGLW6′ 0″1820231822.39
47Andrew CristallWSHLW5′ 10″1820234023.14
48Matthew WoodNSHLW/C6′ 5″1820231520.68
49Sasha PastujovANARW/LW6′ 0″2020216626.52
50Pavel MintyukovANAD6′ 1″1920221020.84
51Bogdan KonyushkovMOND5′ 11″20202311023.87
52Connor ZaryCGYC6′ 0″2220202433.46
53Daniil PylenkovTBLD6′ 1″23202119632.02
54William DufourNYIRW6′ 2″21202015230.42
55David GoyetteSEAC5′ 10″1920226124.62
56Olen ZellwegerANAD5′ 9″2020213422.03
57Dalibor DvorskySTLC/RW6′ 1″1820231020.47
58Niko HuuhtanenTBLRW6′ 2″20202122424.80
59Vasili PonomaryovCARC5′ 10″2120205331.29
60Shane WrightSEAC6′ 0″192022424.00
61Sean FarrellMONC/LW5′ 9″21202012433.26
62Matthew MaggioNYIRW5′ 11″20202214227.72
63Logan StankovenDALC/RW5′ 7″2020214728.58
64Logan MorrisonSEAC6′ 0″21N/AN/A28.24
65Zach BensonBUFLW5′ 9″1820231321.33
66Ty NelsonSEAD5′ 9″1920226819.98
67Shakir MukhamadullinSJSD6′ 4″2120202023.59
68Francesco PinelliLAKC6′ 0″2020214225.31
69William WallinderDETD6′ 4″2120203221.70
70Aatu JamsenLAKRW/LW6′ 1″21202019027.16
71Amadeus LombardiDETC5′ 10″20202211325.31
72Evan VierlingPITC6′ 0″21202012727.72
73Ty VoitTORW/C5′ 10″20202115325.14
74Samuel BolducNYID6′ 4″2220195727.38
75Ryan LeonardWSHC6′ 0″182023820.30
76Yegor SokolovOTTLW/RW6′ 3″2320206136.51
77Juraj SlafkovskyMONLW6′ 3″192022121.03
78Lukas CormierVGKD5′ 10″2120206824.34
79Gage GoncalvesTBLC6′ 0″2220206233.90
80Vladislav FirstovMINLW6′ 1″2220194230.86
81Joshua RoyMONW/C6′ 0″20202115023.35
82Arseni GritsyukNJDRW/LW5′ 11″22201912933.19
83Topi NiemelaTORD5′ 11″2120206423.47
84Will CuylleNYRLW6′ 3″2120206026.95
85Trey Fix-WolanskyCBJRW5′ 7″24201820450.41
86Elliot DesnoyersPHILW5′ 11″21202013528.68
87Cruz LuciusCARRW6′ 0″19202212421.32
88Rutger McGroartyWPGC/LW6′ 0″1920221421.32
89Michael BuchingerSTLD5′ 11″1920228817.91
90Nolan BurkeNSHC6′ 3″20N/AN/A23.76
91Matvei PetrovEDMRW/LW6′ 2″20202118023.25
92Isak RosenBUFW/C5′ 11″2020211424.34
93Adam EngstromMOND6′ 2″1920229217.71
94Semyon ChistyakovNSHD5′ 10″22201911725.62
95Maxim BeryozkinEDMRW/LW6′ 2″21202013827.95
96Jan JenikARIRW/C6′ 1″2320186533.90
97Declan ChisholmWPGD6′ 2″23201815031.73
98Rodwin DionicioANAD6′ 2″19202312916.88
99Stanislav SvozilCBJD6′ 0″2020216920.07
100Sam LipkinARILW/C6′ 2″20202122323.45

Digging into this data on the top-100 prospects a bit, I looked at just how much a player needs to score to be considered among this top tier of future NHL players. Depending on age and position, a major junior player needs to be scoring between one and two points per game to reach this upper echelon prospect status. An AHL or top European pro league player needs to produce between .4 and 1 points per game, while a KHL player can check in on the lower end of that range and still rank highly.

On the demographics side, Canada still leads the way in the hockey world, with 41 of the top 100 prospects hailing from the Great White North.

Of the top 100, 60 percent were first- or second-round draft picks. This underscores that NHL teams are efficient in identifying amateurs most likely to turn into productive professionals. It also supports the work of other draft analysts indicating that first- and second-round draft picks are by far the most valuable in generating future NHLers.

Of the top-100 prospects, only one was not drafted (reflected by the “null” in the chart above). Any guesses on who that might be? Keep reading for the answer.

Finally, let’s take an initial look at how these top-100 prospects are distributed across the NHL.

How do Seattle’s prospects stack up?

Since this website primarily covers the Seattle Kraken, many may be wondering where Seattle’s prospects stack up. The answer is: Quite well. Of course, the Kraken value data in their amateur scouting process, so this is not terribly surprising. Still, it is a notable success that Seattle has one of the deepest prospect pools of high-scoring, young talent despite participating in only three drafts (and having only three first-round picks to date). Two undrafted free agent signings stand out as important future pieces as well.

Prospect RankingFull NameTeamPositionHeight (ft in)AgeCountryDraft YearDraft PickChatel NHLe (unadjusted)
24Ryker EvansSEAD5′ 11″21CAN20213531.29
55David GoyetteSEAC/LW5′ 10″19CAN20226124.62
60Shane WrightSEAC6′ 0″19CAN2022424.00
64Logan MorrisonSEAC6′ 0″21CANN/AN/A28.24
66Ty NelsonSEAD5′ 9″19CAN20226819.98
101Tye KartyeSEAC/LW5′ 11″22CANN/AN/A31.29
118Lukas DragicevicSEAD6′ 1″18CAN20235714.92
137Ryan WintertonSEAC/RW6′ 2″20CAN20216720.32
141Jagger FirkusSEARW5′ 10″19CAN20223519.93
155Tucker RobertsonSEAC5′ 11″20CAN202212321.18
192Jani NymanSEARW6′ 2″19FIN20224916.92
194Jacob MelansonSEARW5′ 11″20CAN202113120.47
214Kyle JacksonSEALW/C6′ 2″20CAN202219619.98
242Kole LindSEARW6′ 1″24CAN20173341.29
253Carson RehkopfSEAC/LW6′ 2″18CAN20235014.46
366Andrei LoshkoSEAC/RW6′ 1″19BLR202311612.99
425Eduard SaleSEAC/RW6′ 2″18CZE20232011.41
445Marian StudenicSEALW/RW6′ 1″24SVK201714331.29
452Ville OttavainenSEAD6′ 5″21FIN20219911.81
498Caden PriceSEAD6′ 1″18CAN2023848.50
504Tyson JugnauthSEAD5′ 11″19CAN202210010.02
518Barrett HallSEAC6′ 1″19USA202216411.81
529Zaccharya WisdomSEARW6′ 0″19CAN202321211.37
619Oscar Fisker MolgaardSEAC6′ 0″18DNK2023528.84
670Ville PetmanSEAC/LW5′ 10″23FINN/AN/A17.38
712Zeb ForsfjallSEAC5′ 9″18SWE20231805.65
748Ben MacDonaldSEAC5′ 11″19USA2022918.12
777Justin JanickeSEALW/C5′ 11″20USA20211958.31
828Kaden HammellSEAD6′ 1″18CAN20231485.02
871Luke HenmanSEAC6′ 0″23CAN20189610.87
888Peetro SeppalaSEAD6’2″23FINN/AN/A7.39

By this point you have likely noticed the answer to our little trivia question–Seattle Kraken prospect Logan Morrison is the one undrafted prospect in the top-100. Who is the second-highest ranked undrafted prospect? Seattle Kraken F Tye Kartye, who checks in just outside the top-100 at No. 101 overall.

Next up: Ranking the prospect pools

How does the Kraken prospect pool stack up against the rest of the league? I’ll dig into that question a little further next time. In the meantime, here, again, is the link to the full ranking of NHL affiliated prospects.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

What the Kraken did/didn’t do this offseason, depth chart predictions

What the Kraken did/didn’t do this offseason, depth chart predictions

This Seattle Kraken offseason has been interestingly… UNinteresting. Fresh off a 100-point regular season, a first-round series win over the defending champion Colorado Avalanche, and a Game 7 loss to the Dallas Stars in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we kept waiting for a big move from Seattle’s front office this summer. We were expecting “Oliver Bjorkstrand for a Bag of Pucks 2.0,” but what we got was a series of under-the-radar backfilling transactions to round out the bottom of the Kraken lineup.

Despite the lack of splashy acquisitions, some finagling was done, and we really haven’t taken stock of the moves that did get made. So, let’s do that here and try to figure out how the team’s depth chart looks now that training camp is on the horizon.

What the Kraken didn’t do this offseason

A void of big moves may not end up being a bad thing. General manager Ron Francis and his staff are clearly thinking about the long-term health of the organization, while fielding a roster that can compete now.

The Kraken proved last season they have enough talent to be a playoff team (and a dangerous playoff team at that), and as our own Curtis Isacke astutely pointed out in July, they are also set up for healthy turnover in the coming years. Their existing veterans will age out, and their contracts will expire just in time for Seattle’s current prospects to become the core of the team.

All that said, we were surprised Seattle didn’t take a bigger swing at building off the momentum created in 2022-23, but maybe we shouldn’t have been. In retrospect, maybe we should have expected a relatively quiet offseason, especially considering all of the Kraken’s top-10 forwards are back (arguably 11 if you include Tye Kartye in that mix), as are seven of the eight defensemen that were with the team to end last season.  

When you factor in the emergence of Eeli Tolvanen after he was claimed off waivers mid-season, plus the assumed return of Andrei Burakovsky, the 2023-24 team *should* be just as deep or slightly deeper than the 2022-23 iteration.

What the Kraken did this offseason

The offseason started with a bang, as the Kraken got a big boost to their prospect pool by selecting a whopping 10 prospects in the NHL Draft. Seattle’s draft class was led by first-round pick Eduard Sale at No. 20 overall, along with second-rounders, Carson Rehkopf (No. 50), Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (No. 52), and Lukas Dragicevic (No. 57). By all accounts, the Kraken did very well for themselves in this draft.

They then signed goaltender Joey Daccord to a new contract on June 30, confirming what everyone expected about Martin Jones’s tenure with the Kraken: that it would only last one season. Jones since signed with the Maple Leafs. Daccord, meanwhile, will have a strong chance at being the full-time backup to Philipp Grubauer this season, duking it out with Chris Driedger for the NHL spot in training camp.

When free agency opened a couple days after that, it was a slow drip for Seattle to make any moves whatsoever. Defenseman Brian Dumoulin was the lone add initially, and the Kraken watched their entire fourth line of Daniel Sprong, Morgan Geekie, and Ryan Donato leave for Detroit, Boston, and Chicago respectively, while Carson Soucy headed north to Vancouver.

In the days that followed, Seattle replaced two of their departed forwards with 38-year-old Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Spokane native, Kailer Yamamoto.

The Kraken also gave John Hayden a new one-year contract, re-upped restricted free agents, Will Borgen, Kole Lind, and Cale Fleury, and—after some delay—extended Vince Dunn on a very fair four-year, $29.4 million deal.

Finally, the Kraken signed center Devin Shore on Aug. 31 to a two-way deal, presumably to bring additional competition to camp and to provide veteran depth at both the NHL and AHL levels.

Depth chart

Now that the dust appears to have mostly settled on the offseason, we have a good picture of the team’s depth chart entering 2023-24. Remember, Seattle can keep three extra players on its roster, but if youngsters are slated to be healthy scratches, it may behoove the team to send them to Coachella Valley for playing time.

There are variables to consider when trying to figure out where the young forwards slot into the depth chart.

First, there still has been no official word from the team on if Shane Wright has been deemed eligible for the AHL, though we believe he has. If somehow we’re wrong on that, and the only options for him end up being NHL or OHL, then where he plays this season will be a major storyline again in training camp.

Second, although Tye Kartye was a key piece of Seattle’s success in the playoffs, he does not require waivers to get to Coachella Valley, whereas Kole Lind does require them. This may give Lind an inside shot at the NHL roster, as sending him to the Firebirds would give other teams a chance to pluck him.

It’s odd saying that, because after Seattle’s dismissal from the playoffs, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Kartye would be with the NHL team to start 2023-24. But there are only so many forward spots, both Lind and Kartye deserve a chance with the Kraken, and keeping Lind up is less risky in terms of potentially losing a valuable, young forward to a waiver claim. Kartye will have to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is the guy to keep out of camp to force the Kraken to expose Lind.

Of course, there’s always a chance of a longer-term injury happening in training camp, in which case this dilemma might resolve itself. Or, perhaps both Lind and Kartye beat out veteran players and stick with the team. Keep a close eye on these two players in camp.

On the back end, it will be interesting to see what happens with Jaycob Megna this next month. He was a top-four defenseman in San Jose but only got six games with the Kraken after being acquired before the trade deadline. Similarly, Cale Fleury has been stuck in the press box for two full seasons. Is this the year Seattle finally takes its chances and puts him on waivers to (hopefully) get him some playing time with the Firebirds?

Meanwhile, Ryker Evans is knocking at the door, but Dumoulin’s signing seems to have solidified the team’s six defensemen, assuming good health.

Forwards

Jared McCann // Matty Beniers // Jordan Eberle
Andrei Burakovsky // Alex Wennberg // Jaden Schwartz
Oliver Bjorkstrand // Yanni Gourde // Eeli Tolvanen
Brandon Tanev // Pierre-Edouard Bellemare // Kailer Yamamoto
Vying for spots: Shane Wright, Kole Lind, Tye Kartye, Devin Shore, John Hayden

Defense

Vince Dunn // Adam Larsson
Jamie Oleksiak // Will Borgen
Brian Dumoulin // Justin Schultz
Vying for spots: Jaycob Megna, Cale Fleury, Ryker Evans

Goalie

Philipp Grubauer
Vying for a spot: Joey Daccord, Chris Driedger

What do you think about Seattle’s chances heading into its third season? How far can the Kraken go with this roster? Let us know in the comments.

Darren Brown

Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.

Digging into Seattle Kraken faceoff data

Digging into Seattle Kraken faceoff data

On last week’s episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, I forecasted that the biggest need for the Seattle Kraken early in the 2023-24 NHL season will be a right-handed center. This was not the first time I mentioned the need after the Kraken chose to not qualify the only right-handed center on the team from last year, Morgan Geekie. At the core of this need is the option to deploy a right-handed center to take strategic faceoffs from a right-hander’s strong side.

Before anybody goes right to the comments section to tell me faceoffs don’t matter, let me state that I do acknowledge that faceoffs are not as important as we once thought they were, and possession after a faceoff is a better measure of success. The possession stat is not captured and shared publicly, but we do know that faceoff wins and losses are a leading indicator of that possession, so we are going to work with the tools that are publicly available to us.

Seattle Kraken faceoff numbers last season

Let’s call out the obvious; the Kraken were one of the worst teams in the league for faceoffs last season. Early in the campaign, it was an easy stat to pick on, particularly when the team had challenges on the power play, as it seemed to have frequently. Teams were able to win the faceoff and clear the zone, killing valuable time even before Seattle could get set up. The dismal faceoff numbers also seemed to drive speculation from national media types that the Kraken would target a center at the trade deadline last season.

Faceoff deployments in the defensive zone

There is a strong side and a weak side for faceoffs. Right-shot centers tend to favor winning faceoffs on their backhand to the back right of the faceoff circle. Conversely, left-handers will try to win it to their back left.

The area on the ice in which this is particularly important is when the faceoff is in the defensive zone. If the faceoff is to the right of the goalie, ideally you have a right-hander take the draw, so they can try to win it to the corner, or, at the very least, keep it out of the center of the ice. If you have a left-hander taking a faceoff on the right side, there is a danger that the center could win or just direct it toward the center of the ice or toward the net.

See Exhibit A below.

Let’s see how centers were deployed in the defensive zone based on their handedness.

One item of note is that the total number of faceoffs taken by lefties is much higher. This is largely because roughly 66 percent of the centers in the league are left-handed, and as far as I know, there are no ambidextrous centers in the league, which would make the right-handers around 33 percent.

Because of this scarcity of righties in the league, the deployment of lefties based on the side of the ice is not as pronounced. But righties are deployed significantly more on the right side with 72.4 percent of their faceoffs taken in the defensive zone on the right side.

For lefties, you can see the advantage of the strong side, winning 53.6 percent of defensive-zone faceoffs, compared to just 45.0 percent on the weak side.

Kraken faceoff deployments in the defensive zone

Now let’s take a deeper look at how the Kraken leveraged their centers last season and how they fared at the defensive-zone faceoff dots.

As expected, Morgan Geekie, Seattle’s only right-handed center, was heavily deployed on the right shooter’s strong side in the defensive zone. At 47.1 percent, he had the highest win percentage on that specific faceoff circle.

Next let’s remove Geekie and add Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, the expected fourth-line center to start 2023-24.

On the surface, the faceoff percentage should go up, but it doesn’t account that 80 percent of Geekie’s faceoffs were taken on the right-hander’s strong side. Bellemare will not be deployed in the same way, and someone will need to take those faceoffs to the right of the goalie in the defensive zone.

Shortcomings of measuring faceoffs

There has been research to suggest that faceoff winning percentages do not have a significant impact on games, and most people I talk to in the hockey world imply there is a more important stat of gaining possession after a faceoff. The players on the ice all have a role to play in the faceoff and could impact who wins possession. Here are two of my favorite examples of these shortcomings.

This first example is when the Kraken “lose” the opening faceoff in overtime against the Capitals.

The second is when the Kraken “win” the faceoff in a playoff game against the Avalanche.

In both cases, the team that won the faceoff never really possessed the puck but still got credit for winning the faceoff.

Shots against after faceoffs

In a perfect world, we have a statistic that captures which team gains clear possession of the puck after a faceoff. This would be a team stat that considers all players on the ice and their ability to gain possession… but we don’t have that.

A proxy that is often used is shot attempts and shot attempts against after a faceoff within a designated time interval. I asked around about the interval, and the consensus I got back was five seconds. The logic here is if a team attempts a shot within a five-second interval of a draw, they will have successfully gained possession. Conversely, you can evaluate a team’s performance at gaining possession after a faceoff by seeing the rate at which they allow shot attempts after a faceoff.

For consistency in the analysis, we are going to focus on defensive-zone faceoffs. Let’s first look at the raw numbers of shot attempts against within five seconds of a defensive-zone faceoff.

When evaluating just on a volume basis, there does not seem to be an issue with the Kraken’s ability to gain possession after a defensive-zone faceoff. They are squarely in the middle of the league, ranking 16th in shot attempts allowed within five seconds of a defensive-zone faceoff.

Analyzing the performance on a volume basis is flawed, though, because a team, for whatever reason, might have a lower number of defensive-zone faceoffs, which might reduce the volume of shot attempts allowed. A better approach will be to look at the rate at which a team allows shot attempts after faceoffs.

This visual starts to tell a different story. The Kraken were ranked 26th in the league at the rate that they allowed shot attempts within five seconds of a defensive faceoff with only one playoff team below them, the Minnesota Wild.

We can slice it one more layer to hone in on the actual faceoff circle in question and see how the Kraken performed. To differentiate the two circles, we are going to label them from the goalie’s perspective, so the “Defensive-Right” is the circle to the immediate right of the goalie, while “Defensive-Left” is the circle to the immediate left of the goalie. To remind people, the Defensive-Right faceoff circle is a right-hander’s strong side, while the “Defensive-Left” is the left-hander’s strong side.

Consistent with the faceoff percentages, the Kraken struggled with relinquishing possession after faceoffs from the Defensive-Right circle; they ranked 28th in the league at the rate in which teams get shot attempts within five seconds of the faceoff.

No easy fix

As I stated in the beginning, the Kraken need a right-handed center to deploy on the right-side defensive-zone faceoff circle, but it is unlikely we will see any roster moves before the season starts. Of the right-handed centermen available during free agency, only J.T. Compher, Luke Glendening, and Noel Acciari would have been candidates that could have been targets that fit this profile. And who knows if the Kraken made a run at any of them?

It is also naïve to think there isn’t a host of other factors when targeting free agents, including contract terms and long-term fit within the organization. Also, it is important to point out that Shane Wright is a right-handed center, but it would be asking a lot of a rookie to be that stable right-handed option as he gets used to the speed and the strength of the game.

Is it October yet?

I hope some of you feel a little bit more enlightened on faceoffs, and I also want to recognize my own insanity that I put the time and research I put into evaluating defensive-zone faceoffs. It was fun, insightful, and interesting for me, but come on, a 1500-word post on defensive-zone faceoffs?  

If you have thoughts, questions, or want to see some specific teams or players broken down, leave a note in the comments section and I will do my best to get back to you.

Joonas Donskoi retires, lingering questions before Kraken training camp

Joonas Donskoi retires, lingering questions before Kraken training camp

Before we get to the meat of this story, a bit of Kraken news, as Joonas Donskoi announced his retirement from professional hockey Sunday via his Instagram account. Donskoi, 31, cited multiple concussions in the post as the reason for his early departure from the game. 

Selected from Colorado in the Expansion Draft, Donskoi had a tough inaugural season with the Kraken. Although he played 75 games, he scored just two goals and found himself scratched from the lineup on a few occasions. That came after four consecutive seasons of 14 goals or more, so it was a significant dropoff. He then got injured during a preseason game in the lead-up to the 2022-23 season and ended up missing the entire campaign. 

Donskoi played seven NHL seasons in total; four with San Jose, two with Colorado, and one with Seattle. He had 80 career goals and added 128 assists in 474 games. He played in a Stanley Cup Final for the Sharks in 2016 and also won a Presidents’ Trophy with the Avalanche in 2021. 

Most important, though, Donskoi is one of the nicest people you can encounter. We will very much miss his infectious smile, and we are still grateful for that time he rescued the press corps from a large spider that was crawling across the floor of the Kraken dressing room.

We wish Joonas and his family all the best as they move into the next chapter of their lives.

Training camp is coming  

Shifting gears now, the hockey news abyss that is the month of August is almost over, and that means Seattle Kraken training camp is once again right around the corner. The offseason played out in a relatively quiet manner for the Seattle front office, and a lack of big splashes left several questions open as we head toward the third season in franchise history. 

We ask those questions here and also try to answer them. 

Question 1: Which forwards make the team out of camp? 

The moves the Kraken made this offseason were mostly backfilling transactions to cover for players that departed via free agency, namely the team’s entire fourth line and its third-pair left defenseman. 

Out went Daniel Sprong, Morgan Geekie, Ryan Donato, and Carson Soucy, and in came Kailer Yamamoto, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Brian Dumoulin. Yes, we’re naming more departures from the NHL roster than arrivals to the NHL roster, so there are lingering arguments to be had about who should snag the last couple spots when camp breaks. 

Still, with Andre Burakovsky likely to return from a groin tear suffered in February, the forward lineup is mostly full.

Jared McCann // Matty Beniers // Jordan Eberle
Andre Burakovsky // Alex Wennberg // Jaden Schwartz
Oliver Bjorkstrand // Yanni Gourde // Eeli Tolvanen
Brandon Tanev // Pierre-Edouard Bellemare // Kailer Yamamoto

Fighting for spots: 
Tye Kartye // Kole Lind // Shane Wright // John Hayden 

Beyond the 12 forwards listed on lines above, Kartye, Lind, Wright, and Hayden will all be battling to make the Kraken. But if there aren’t injuries, we’re not sure where coach Dave Hakstol will be able to slot those players to get them consistent playing time; one would have to supplant a more veteran forward (could Bellemare, 38, spend time as a scratch this season?).

One would think Kartye has an inside track to the NHL roster after demonstrating during the playoffs that he can play in the Kraken’s top six. The AHL rookie of the year looked like a grizzled veteran in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and notched three goals and two assists in 10 games for Seattle. He then went back to Coachella Valley and picked up right where he left off, adding eight more points in 18 Calder Cup Playoff games. All of that points toward Kartye breaking camp with the big club.

BUT…

There’s a wrinkle here. Remember, Kartye does not require waivers to get to Coachella Valley, whereas Lind does require them. We thought Lind was right on the cusp of making the team last season, only to be sent to the Firebirds, where he too was one of the team’s stars and posted 30 goals and 32 assists in 72 regular-season games, then a whopping 31 points in 26 playoff games.

If Kartye ends up being the guy Seattle wants to keep in the NHL, that could mean the organization would again have to risk losing Lind by placing him on waivers.

These things tend to work themselves out, but it’s worth keeping an eye on how the forward lineup evolves through Seattle’s preseason.  

Question 2: Where does Shane Wright play this season? 

By the letter of the law, Wright is still technically ineligible to play in the AHL this season because of the rules of the CHL/NHL transfer agreement. Had he played just one more game in the OHL before his Windsor Spitfires were swept out of the playoffs, this would no longer be a topic of conversation, and the Coachella Valley Firebirds would be a viable option. 

We know discussions have been happening behind the scenes to determine if the involved leagues will make an exception and allow Wright to play for the Firebirds. We expect he will be cleared to play in the AHL, but nothing has been stated officially on that yet.

Questions remain around Shane Wright’s AHL eligibility this season. (Photo/Brian Liesse)

HOWEVER…

If it doesn’t work out in Seattle’s favor, and NHL or OHL end up being the only options, it will be interesting to see what kind of progress Wright has made this offseason. At the end of his playoff run with the Firebirds, he had started to show readiness for pro hockey and looked great in development camp. But is he ready for the NHL?

Going back to the OHL would be a waste of time for Wright, so if it ends up being NHL or juniors, we think he would stay with the NHL team and again be used sparingly.

That said, we still think the AHL is the best place for Wright at this point, and we think he will be allowed to play there. 

Question 3: What happens with Ryker Evans this season? 

On the back end, the decision by general manager Ron Francis to bring in Dumoulin on a two-year, $6.3 million deal effectively solidified that Ryker Evans will start the season in the AHL, unless there’s an injury to a left-shot defenseman. 

21-year-old defenseman Ryker Evans could factor in on the Kraken blue line in the near future. (Photo/Brian Liesse)

The puck-moving 21-year-old is surely closing in on a spot with the NHL club, though, after he put up 44 points in 71 games for Coachella Valley in the regular season, then 26 in 26 playoff games. Evans is silky smooth and brings an offensive element from the blue line that Seattle lacks.

Meanwhile, with righties Adam Larsson, Justin Schultz, and Will Borgen all back, it does seem like Cale Fleury is destined for the seventh-defenseman role again, doesn’t it?

Question 4: Who will be the backup goalie? 

The last two seasons have been turbulent for Chris Driedger, who originally signed his three-year, $10.5 million contract in 2021 expecting to be the starting goalie for the Kraken. Instead, Seattle also signed Philipp Grubauer before the inaugural season, putting Driedger into a true backup spot. 

Driedger tore his ACL while representing Canada at the IIHF World Championship after the 2021-22 season ended, then spent the majority of 2022-23 rehabbing. When he came back, Martin Jones (now under contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs) had taken his backup spot, so Driedger was assigned to Coachella Valley. 

Back fully healthy, Driedger also struggled to find playing time in the AHL, as Joey Daccord demanded the goal crease down the stretch and carried the Firebirds all the way to the Calder Cup Finals. 

Was Daccord’s memorable performance—he had a 2.31 goals against average and .927 save percentage in 16 playoff games for the Firebirds—enough to earn him his first full-time NHL backup role? 

Seattle showed loyalty to Daccord, a Group 6 unrestricted free agent, by signing him to a two-year, one-way contract worth $2.4 million this offseason. The front office clearly likes where he’s headed, so it could be Joey’s time. 

Question 5: Did the Kraken improve this offseason? 

If you’ve been listening to the Sound Of Hockey Podcast this summer, you’ll know that somebody (not naming names) on that show thinks Seattle regressed this offseason by not adding a high-end scorer to the top of the lineup. 

But now that we’ve done the exercise of writing out the depth chart above, that unnamed podcast host (ok, it was me, I admit it!) is starting to come around to the idea that maybe the Kraken will be about as good as they were last season. 

Seattle’s success in 2023-24 will hinge on health. With Burakovsky theoretically returning, the Kraken do look deep again, at least on paper. We’re also seeing young players not named Matty Beniers knocking on the door for the first time, which is encouraging for the longer-term outlook of the franchise. And if a guy like Kartye or Lind can snag a spot higher in the lineup, that could be what pushes a more skilled player down, again giving Seattle four scary lines.

The team proved that its top three lines can roll against any lineup in the league, and all those players are back. So, really, the only concern is whether the fourth line—likely composed of some combination of under-the-radar acquisitions and youngsters—can produce in a similar manner to last season’s bottom trio. Again, assuming good health, there’s some potential for improvement there.

What other questions do you have about the Kraken as they head toward camp? Let us know in the comments section. 

Darren Brown

Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.

Seattle Kraken takeaways from the World Junior Summer Showcase

Seattle Kraken takeaways from the World Junior Summer Showcase

From July 29 through Aug. 4, some of the best under-20 players from the United States, Finland, and Sweden met at the home of the U.S. National Team Development Program in Plymouth, Mich. Each team has the same goal: Winning the 2024 World Junior Championship starting in December. This summer exhibition–dubbed the World Junior Summer Showcase–is all about evaluation. Which players should be on the World Juniors rosters?

Four players drafted by the Seattle Kraken saw playing time at the event: Finns Jani Nyman (No. 49 overall in the 2022 draft), Niklas Kokko (No. 58/2022), and Visa Vedenpaa (No. 168/2023), and Swede Zeb Forsfjall (No. 180/2023). I was able to watch all of Team Finland’s games and two of Team Sweden’s games. How did the players look? Are they likely to make the World Juniors rosters for their respective nations? 

Since it’s a slow month on the hockey calendar, and this is a good excuse to check in on a few prospects, let’s dive in with Kraken-related takeaways and videos from the World Junior Summer Showcase.

Jani Nyman, LW, Finland

Showcase statistics. Nyman had two goals, zero assists, and three minor penalties (roughing x2, tripping) in four games played.

Tape analysis. Nyman played the left wing in a top-six role for the entire tournament. He did not play on the penalty kill, but he was a fixture on the first power-play unit. He served as one of the two trailing forwards on the man advantage–one of the players who attempts a controlled-carry zone entry to set up the unit in the offensive zone. (The Kraken used Andre Burakovsky, Jordan Eberle, and Alex Wennberg, among others, in a similar role in 2022-23.) Once established in the zone, he was most commonly on the right side half wall, looking to unleash one-timers from the right-wing circle. He scored on one such opportunity. 

He looks like he has “it” when it comes to this kind of shot. By no means do I mean to suggest he’s going to score like Alex Ovechkin or David Pastrnak on the man advantage, but could he get close to Daniel Sprong’s production with his shot someday? Some players drill this shot constantly and never quite find it consistently enough. Nyman doesn’t have this problem. If given the opportunity in the NHL, I’d project him to rack up five-plus goals each season on that shot alone. 

The rest of Nyman’s game is an incredibly challenging evaluation, I think. He has a number of strong discrete skills. He can shoot and pass at an NHL level. He can use his body to protect the puck and his strength to win board battles. He uses a physical style to drive play toward the opponent’s net regularly. And he plays with some edge, frequently entering the fray to stand up for a teammate. 

But I also saw a player who struggled to stitch together his skills into cohesive, high-end play. He is a slower, hunched skater. He struggled to get the puck through the neutral zone with control at five-on-five because he can’t get much separation from the defense. He won’t win many chase situations and, worse, he often seemed to give up on plays where a foot race became necessary. On the defensive end, his feet deadened too often, and he was left to reach on a poke check. This led to a preventable tripping penalty in one game. Off the puck, he offered very little engagement defensively. 

So, I oscillated between thinking “this is one of the most exciting prospects Seattle has” and doubts that he just won’t be able to succeed at a higher level where skilled players can exploit his flaws. I also started wondering whether there is some kind of sheltered bottom-line-and-power-play role that could get his shot onto NHL ice even if the other aspects of his game don’t progress, but I was left a bit pessimistic about that concept. 

All of that said, Nyman is still young. He just turned 19 on July 30. He has plenty more development yet to come. And the “highs” are quite high for Nyman already. Indeed, good friend of the Sound of Hockey Podcast, Chris Peters, had Nyman as a player that stood out positively at the Showcase. I’ll be watching Nyman’s season closely.

World Juniors verdict. Nyman will be a top-six (likely top-line) left wing for Finland at the World Junior Championships.

Zeb Forsfjall, C, Sweden 

Showcase statistics. Forsfjall had one goal, zero assists, and one minor penalty (cross-checking) in four games played. 

Tape analysis. Team Sweden used Forsfjall as its bottom-line pivot and on the penalty kill. Through the two games I watched, I found it very easy to love this player. Forsfjall has easy, joystick-style mobility on the ice. He can get to anywhere the play dictates. His straight-line speed is also very good, even if a step down from elite. Finally, he displays strong puck-possession skill through the neutral zone. 

Beyond that, his skills aren’t “loud,” but he gets results. He deploys a high-energy and engaged play style, particularly in the defensive zone. He has good instincts on the penalty kill and uses his speed to pressure opponents at the correct times. 

As an undersized center, Forsfjall has a bit of Yanni Gourde in his game. But he’ll need to add some bulk if he’s going to play a hard-charging, forechecking style like No. 37 in deep sea blue. Forsjfall was willing but not always effective at winning puck battles at the World Junior Summer Showcase.

On the offensive side, Forsfjall showed enough passing and shooting skill to score opportunistically. 

The question on Forsfjall is two-fold: Can he add strength, and can he continue to develop his offensive game? With modest gains in each area, it’s not difficult to imagine him finding a job as an NHL role player down the line. If this is the outcome, it’s outstanding value from a sixth-round draft pick.

World Juniors verdict. I highly doubt Forsfjall will be on Team Sweden this year, but if he can get a little stronger over the next year, I could imagine him securing a bottom-line, energy role for Sweden in 2025. You can’t say that about too many players drafted 180th overall in the NHL Draft.

Niklas Kokko, G, Finland

Showcase statistics. Kokko allowed 8 goals on 87 shots on goal, for a .908 save percentage. He won two games and dropped one.

Tape analysis. Kokko played three of the four games in this exhibition tune-up and looked calm and collected doing it. He used his big frame well, anticipated plays, and flashed a quick glove to deny a couple clean breakaway looks. 

From my vantage, he looked like Finland’s second-best player across these four games. Cam Robinson of Elite Prospects was similarly complimentary of Kokko’s performance. As of this check in, Kokko’s development seems to be “on track” for an aggressive move to the AHL in the 2024-25 season as a 20-year-old. 

World Juniors verdict. Kokko appears firmly entrenched as the projected starter for Team Finland at the 2024 World Juniors. Performance this fall will be a factor, but absent a collapse from Kokko, the job should be his, with Topias Leinonen his backup.

Visa Vedenpaa, G, Finland

Showcase statistics. Vedenpaa allowed 4 goals on 24 shots on goal, for a .833 save percentage. He was the losing goalie in his only start.

Tape analysis. Vedenpaa faced a number of tough looks in his one start, but he held up his end of the bargain for the most part. He’s trained in the same style as Kokko, but noticeably a bit smaller in the net. Vedenpaa found himself out of position at times, but he was often able to save himself with skilled and athletic plays. 

World Juniors verdict. Vedenpaa won’t be in net for Finland this year, but his presence with the national team suggests he is in the running for the job in 2025. If he is one of the team’s final cuts or accompanies the team as an extra player who never suits up at this year’s World Junior Championship–as Kokko did last year–it will be a strong endorsement of his future outlook. 

Other takeaways from the Showcase

Admittedly, I was watching Team Finland closer than the other squads, but the only player that I thought beat out Kokko in this exhibition was Finnish forward Lenni Hämeenaho. 

New Jersey picked the native of Kajaani, Finland, at No. 58 in the 2023 NHL Draft–just after Seattle’s run of three second-round picks. Hämeenaho had played his entire draft season in Finland’s top professional league, Liiga, and performed incredibly well for his age, tallying 25 points in 59 total games. In my adjusted “NHL equivalency” calculation, his data netted out in the late-first-round range. Combined with scouting reports endorsing him as a second-round option (he ranked No. 56 on the Big Board), I thought a number of factors lined up to make him a strong option for Seattle with one of their second-round picks. Seattle didn’t go that way.

At the World Junior Summer Showcase, Hämeenaho showed off a diverse skillset as a top-six winger. He can skate, pass, shoot, possess the puck, forecheck, and backcheck, all from a frame that appears almost NHL-ready. He was often the best player on the ice, even though he was surrounded by players drafted higher. The knock on him before the draft was that he may have a low ceiling. And that may be. None of his skills looked “elite” to me. He’s probably a middle-six winger in the best case. But at this exhibition he was able to link up a number of strong skills and deliver a very impressive performance. He’ll be a player I watch and wonder about from a Kraken perspective.

Beyond Hämeenaho, two players that stood out to me were the 2024 draft-eligible Finnish center Konsta Helenius and the 2025 (!) draft-eligible U.S. center James Hagens. 

Helenius is a bit undersized and struggled on the faceoff dot at times, but he brought an impressive defensive game and showed signs of offense too despite playing against players a year or more older than him. He was one of Finland’s better players up front and could be a top-15 pick next summer.

Hagens, who is just 16 years old, did not look out of place despite playing two-plus years up. He played a lower-leverage role, but showed flashes of pretty much every trait you could want in a player. If the 2025 NHL Draft is destined to be the “Michael Misa” year, Hagens could be in the conversation with any player after that.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

Preseason 2024 NHL Draft “data-only” top prospects ranking

Preseason 2024 NHL Draft “data-only” top prospects ranking

Yes, the 2023 NHL Draft was just over a month ago. But a love of the draft knows no offseason. So, here we are, in August 2023, before the 2023-24 hockey season has even started, with a post about the 2024 NHL Draft.

Specifically, we are here to present a preseason data-only ranking of (1) the top 100 first-time-eligible prospects and (2) the top 100 re-draft prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft.

Important note on using the data-only ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.

Building the 2024 NHL Draft preseason data-only ranking

In the lead up to this year’s draft, I produced a data-only list of top prospects to monitor. After reflecting on that project, I arrived at the conclusion that the list might be more useful early in the season as a reference point for monitoring players. In some sense, this is how teams use data. It’s most useful to identify players and aid further research and scouting. The same is true on the public side. Who should we be monitoring as we launch into the 2023-24 season? The data can help provide an answer to that question at least.

As I did in advance of the 2023 draft, I built this ranking using an NHL equivalency (or “NHLe”) calculation, but I made three minor adjustments to my approach this time around. First, for my equivalency calculation, I transitioned to using Thibaud Chatel’s NHLe since it is the most up-to-date work in the public sphere.

Second, I have stopped ranking goaltenders for now. I want to improve my method for converting goalie data into a ranking. Hopefully, I can do that before the 2024 draft.

Third, I introduced one new adjustment, boosting the equivalency of a small handful of low-scoring, pro-level skaters. Chace McCallum recently dug in on this issue and found some data suggests that low-scoring draft-eligible players are underrated by conventional NHLe calculations. This is intuitive because one could imagine a scenario where a strong junior player is elevated to a pro league but gets short ice time in a depth role and gets very little opportunity to score. 

Kraken prospect Zeb Forsfjall is an example from the 2023 draft. He earned his way to the SHL but played limited minutes in a defensive fourth-line role and tallied only one goal in 18 games. If he had remained in the junior ranks, his equivalency likely would have been stronger. So, the adjustment removes the NHLe “penalty” associated with a coaching decision to move a player up who might not be ready for a scoring role at a higher level.

Aron Kiviharju is the primary example so far in the 2024 draft. Impressively, he played 21 games for TPS in Liiga in his draft-minus-one season. But, as one might expect, he didn’t register many points (zero goals and three assists). Still, Kiviharju should be credited, not penalized, for achieving a promotion to this top-level professional league at such a young age.

This new adjustment is modest and applies to only a few players, but it is an important step to address a potential flaw in my earlier approach, which likely caused my adjusted NHLe ranking to undervalue players like Forsfjall or Dimitry Simashev.

Beyond those changes, I proceeded in similar fashion to my 2023 data-only ranking. I made modest adjustments to a player’s NHLe calculation for (1) re-draft status, (2) age, and (3) height, each of which have been shown to be linked to prospect success rates. On average, a six-foot-two winger who scores at the same rate as a five-foot-seven winger in junior hockey is more likely to contribute at the NHL level. Likewise, a player who scores a point per game as an 18-year-old is more likely to become an NHL regular than a player who reaches that threshold for the first time as a 21-year-old.

Finally, as before, I then made a modest adjustment to bump up the ranking of defensemen relative to forwards, since, arguably, a high-scoring blueliner is more valuable than a similarly high-scoring forward.

An important season is in front of these players

The most important distinction between this preseason 2024 draft project and my final 2023 draft ranking from a couple months ago is that I am building this preseason ranking on each player’s production one year out from the draft. For first-time draft-eligible players, this is often called the player’s “draft-minus-one” season. 

All of these players have another full season ahead to change their draft stock. First-time draft eligibles often break out as noteworthy draft prospects only during this upcoming “draft” season. By contrast, some players that look like high first-round picks in their draft-minus-one year can recede into a middle-round consideration with a mediocre draft season. Cameron Allen is an example of this phenomenon from the 2023 draft.

Either way, this data is not the end of the story for these prospects. I plan to check in with a new data-only ranking midway through the 2023-24 season and then provide the final data-only list before the 2024 draft.

Without further preamble, again, here is the link to the rankings. I split the lists because very few first-time draft eligibles measure up to the production of the re-draft candidates in their draft-minus-one seasons, even after the adjustments. First-time eligibles need to make a big a jump in their draft season, so it’s best to consider them separately here.

Top 100 first-time draft-eligible skaters

RankNamePositionHeight (ft. in.)Weight (lbs)TeamLeagueGPGA
1Macklin CelebriniF5’11”181Chicago SteelUSHL524640
2Cole EisermanLW5’11”192Multiple TeamsNTDP626935
3Ivan DemidovRW/C5’11”168Multiple TeamsMHL542453
4Cole HutsonD5’8″143Multiple TeamsNTDP611058
5Zayne ParekhD6’0″170Saginaw SpiritOHL612719
6Tanner HoweF5’10”181Regina PatsWHL743851
7Konsta HeleniusC/RW5’10”168Tappara U20U20 SM-sarja19820
8Beckett SenneckeRW6’2″181Oshawa GeneralsOHL662135
9Anthony CristoforoD5’11”174Windsor SpitfiresOHL67736
10Igor ChernyshovLW6’2″192MHK Dynamo MoskvaMHL381820
11Mac SwansonF5’7″165Fargo ForceUSHL661550
12Ryder RitchieF6’0″174Prince Albert RaidersWHL612035
13Trevor ConnellyF6’1″161Tri-City StormUSHL602625
14Artyom LevshunovD6’2″198Green Bay GamblersUSHL651330
15Liam GreentreeRW6’2″194Windsor SpitfiresOHL652521
16Carter YakemchukD6’2″194Calgary HitmenWHL721931
17Justin PoirierRW5’8″181Baie-Comeau DrakkarQMJHL623225
18Maxim MasséRW6’1″181Chicoutimi SaguenéensQMJHL702934
19Henry MewsD6’0″185Ottawa 67’sOHL661322
20Berkly CattonF5’11”163Spokane ChiefsWHL632332
21Andrew BashaF5’11”174Medicine Hat TigersWHL712337
22Simon ZetherC6’3″187Rögle BK J20J20 Nationell431432
23Michael Brandsegg-NygårdRW6’1″194Mora IK J20J20 Nationell351721
24Matvei BabenkoRW6’3″201Tolpar UfaMHL502614
25Riley PattersonC6’0″176North York RangersOJHL563145
26Topias HynninenRW5’10”165Jukurit U20U20 SM-sarja391226
27Will FelicioD5’10”161Madison CapitolsUSHL55424
28Zeev BuiumD5’11”165U.S. National U18 TeamNTDP63535
29Cayden LindstromF6’5″190Medicine Hat TigersWHL651924
30Yegor SurinC/RW5’10”174Multiple TeamsMHL581623
31Aron KiviharjuD5’10”165TPSLiiga2103
32Nikita ArtamonovRW5’11”187Multiple TeamsMHL631428
33Oleg TrofimchukF6’1″165Mamonty YugryMHL501517
34Alexander ShenC/RW5’11”192Mamonty YugryMHL461315
35Alexandre BlaisLW5’10”154Rimouski OcéanicQMJHL73939
36Alexander KimF5’11”161Ässät U18U18 SM-sarja413139
37Alexander ZetterbergC5’8″159Örebro HK J20J20 Nationell451123
38Adam JiricekD6’1″152HC Plzeň U20Czechia U20421217
39Yegor GrafC5’11”161Multiple TeamsMHL531018
40Akseli PulkkanenF5’9″159KalPa U18U18 SM-sarja221518
41Eriks MateikoLW6’4″201Saint John Sea DogsQMJHL671720
42Maxim VelikovF6’1″198Krasnaya Armiya MoskvaMHL36910
43Adam TitlbachC5’8″150HC Plzeň U20Czechia U20351120
44Jan KuceraC6’2″181HC Olomouc U20Czechia U20501428
45Mark SlivchenkoF5’9″161Multiple TeamsMHL46139
46Carson WetschF6’2″185Calgary HitmenWHL501111
47Onni KontunenD5’10”163SaiPa/Ketterä U18U18 SM-sarja391328
48Jamiro ReberC5’10”172Langnau U20U20 Elit531139
49Tim EkmanFSport U18U18 SM-sarja371829
50Adam JechoRW6’3″187Tappara U18U18 SM-sarja392126
51Pavel BurmistrovLW/RW5’11”161Multiple TeamsMHL2674
52Rasmus SvartströmF6’4″201KooKoo U18U18 SM-sarja422328
53Natan TeshomeRW5’11”152Jokerit U18U18 SM-sarja401929
54Artyom KrikunenkoC5’9″174Loko-76 YaroslavlMHL41810
55Tomas MrsicC5’10”154Medicine Hat TigersWHL62917
56Leonid KolodiyLW/RW6’0″159Belye Medvedi ChelyabinskMHL3039
57Artyom ShchuchinovD5’11”154Belye Medvedi ChelyabinskMHL41310
58Eemeli HeiniläD6’1″187Ässät U18U18 SM-sarja421125
59Lukas KralLW5’11”163Mountfield HK U20Czechia U20451317
60Alexander BazhukhinW/C6’1″172Ladia TogliattiMHL49109
61Tij IginlaF6’0″181Seattle ThunderbirdsWHL51613
62Alexander PlesovskikhF6’0″172Mamonty YugryMHL4178
63Ivan KornilovD5’10”172Multiple TeamsMHL56115
64Roman LuttsevC5’11”154Multiple TeamsMHL60914
65Ilya IvanovF5’11”165Team Belarus U18Belarus Vysshaya603545
66Louie WehmannF6’1″201Providence AcademyUSHS-MN264437
67Radek TomasF5’10”170HC Dynamo Pardubice U20Czechia U20541719
68Danila BulatovF5’9″157AKM-Junior Tula RegionMHL45810
69Danila SysoyevF5’10”174Omskie YastrebyMHL4388
70Marat KalimullinD6’2″161Ladia TogliattiMHL5059
71Vojtech HradecF6’3″185BK Mladá Boleslav U20Czechia U20531320
72David TimofejevF5’9″148Kiekko-Vantaa U18U18 SM-sarja382017
73Carson PilgrimF5’11”165Warroad HighUSHS-MN315240
74Noah UrnessF5’10”168Roseau HighUSHS-MN284541
75Juuso LehtimäkiFTUTO Hockey U18U18 SM-sarja291414
76Artur FaizovF6’1″183Mamonty YugryMHL38103
77Leo TuuvaF5’11”150Lukko U18U18 SM-sarja401621
78Alexandre GuyRW6’2″201Val-d’Or ForeursQMJHL66177
79Mark CorbettC6’2″185Roncalli CardinalsCanadian High School Hockey203127
80Bulat AkhsyanovF5’8″154Tolpar UfaMHL42510
81Santeri KuusistoDSport U18U18 SM-sarja41920
82Sevastian KapchukF5’9″150Multiple TeamsMHL4359
83Stian SolbergD6’2″190VålerengaEliteserien1813
84Veeti RäsänenFMultiple TeamsU18 SM-sarja401516
85Arseni MarchenkoD6’6″207Team Belarus U17Belarus Vysshaya541028
86Lukas FischerD6’4″181Sarnia StingOHL6338
87Ollie JosephsonF5’11”176Red Deer RebelsWHL75715
88Jonatan TiilikainenFJYP U18U18 SM-sarja411418
89Pavol ProkopovicF6’1″205HK Michalovce U20Slovakia U2024910
90Thomas KonkowskiF5’7″141Sachem HighUSHS-NY152416
91Artyom GumenyukLW6’2″187Amurskie Tigry KhabarovskMHL50105
92Ondrej MarunaC6’4″198Team Slovakia U181.liga (Slovakia)2464
93Vojtech SpevacekRW5’9″159HC Oceláři Třinec U20Czechia U20591318
94Matias PiirainenFMultiple TeamsU18 SM-sarja341511
95Nikita AfanasyevD6’1″185Kapitan StupinoMHL59310
96Emil ErikssonFKiekko-Espoo U18 ChU18 SM-sarja441913
97Andrei KrutovLW/RW5’11”174Chaika Nizhny NovgorodMHL5186
98Kamden KaiserF6’1″190Northfield HighUSHS-MN304026
99Yevgeni AvramenkoF5’11”152Progress GrodnoBelarus Vysshaya552823
100Aatu KarvinenF5’9″154Jokerit U18U18 SM-sarja381217

Top 100 re-draft skaters

RankNamePositionHeight (ft. in.)Weight (lbs)TeamLeagueGPGA
1German TochilkinF6’3″179Khimik VoskresenskVHL21314
2Oskar AsplundD5’11”172Almtuna ISAllsvenskan51724
3Dmitri UtkinC6’0″181HK SochiKHL1933
4Yegor KlimovichF5’9″159Sibirskie Snaipery NovosibirskMHL412032
5Grigori KuzminLW5’10”187SKA-Neva St. PetersburgVHL22512
6Valtteri ViirretD5’8″181ÄssätLiiga39214
7Elmeri LaaksoD6’1″185SaiPaLiiga3247
8Ivan KlimovichC6’2″174Sibirskie Snaipery NovosibirskMHL402530
9Raul YakupovF6’1″183Reaktor NizhnekamskMHL493229
10Antti VirtanenC/W5’11”181SaiPa U20U20 SM-sarja352529
11Tigran YarulinF6’2″203HK SochiKHL2836
12Daniil O. IvanovD6’5″209Khimik VoskresenskVHL561311
13Kirill VasilyevD5’10”163Ryazan-VDVVHL1717
14Hannes HellbergF6’1″190Leksands IF J20J20 Nationell493830
15Theo KeilinC/LW5’11”181Skellefteå AIK J20J20 Nationell311238
16Daniil SotishviliF5’11”170Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL522441
17Yegor VinogradovC/RW6’2″181Torpedo Nizhny NovgorodKHL63712
18Dylan HryckowianRW5’10”170Cedar Rapids RoughRidersUSHL662643
19Helmer StyfC5’11”176MoDo Hockey J20J20 Nationell392925
20Radel ZamaltdinovF5’10”168Irbis KazanMHL1586
21Ethan WhitcombRW6’4″201Muskegon LumberjacksUSHL532426
22Artyom KashtanovF6’6″190Avto YekaterinburgMHL491628
23Ben RobertsonD5’10”183Waterloo Black HawksUSHL64442
24William ProosLW6’3″192Almtuna IS J20J20 Nationell201315
25Karl UmegårdF5’9″170MoDo Hockey J20J20 Nationell463336
26Ivan AnoshkoC5’10”168Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL552133
27Andon CerboneF5’9″163Multiple TeamsUSHL732943
28Magomed SharakanovD6’1″201MHK Dynamo MoskvaMHL50828
29Yegor SmirnovC5’10”163Almaz CherepovetsMHL482321
30Lucas Lagerberg HoenD6’1″181Leksands IF J20J20 Nationell521338
31Alexander MorozovF5’10”168Sakhalinskiye AkulyMHL533521
32Nikita BlednovF5’10”165Avto YekaterinburgMHL461534
33Simone TerraneoD5’11”190HCB Ticino RocketsSwiss League35318
34Jake LivanavageD5’10”174Chicago SteelUSHL54633
35Victor SjöholmD5’9″179HV71SHL3728
36Daniil DavydovC/LW5’11”176MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL541340
37Vyacheslav MalovRW5’8″176Omskie YastrebyMHL652340
38Ville RuotsalainenD5’9″165KalPa U20U20 SM-sarja26721
39Alexei YegorovD6’3″181Spartak MoskvaKHL1712
40Yaroslav TsulyginD6’0″157Toros NeftekamskVHL2125
41Vasili DronykF6’5″209Krasnaya Armiya MoskvaMHL361818
42Artyom MisnikovLW5’10”157Chaika Nizhny NovgorodMHL491639
43Alexander LazarevF6’0″181Tyumenski LegionMHL472423
44Joonatan LempiäinenW5’10”172SaiPa U20U20 SM-sarja311423
45Aaron HakalaRW/C5’11”176TPS U20U20 SM-sarja371331
46Robert ChernovF6’4″198Reaktor NizhnekamskMHL451927
47Yelisei KarpovF6’3″187MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL531729
48Mischa RamelC5’6″159EHC WinterthurSwiss League36922
49Avval BaisovF6’0″187Mamonty YugryMHL531632
50Nikita NedopyokinC5’10”187SKA-1946 St. PetersburgMHL471722
51Emil MelanderD6’1″170Timrå IK J20J20 Nationell531640
52Ryan HopkinsD6’1″183Penticton VeesBCHL511044
53Dennis VärmhedC6’2″194Timrå IK J20J20 Nationell513238
54Semyon SinyatkinF5’11”176MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL512720
55Cale AshcroftD5’10”185Tri-City StormUSHL66834
56Mikhail NizovkinLW5’11”176AKM TulaMHL583132
57Ilya IvantsovF5’10”154Severstal CherepovetsKHL70216
58Matvei MaximovF5’10”179MHK Dynamo MoskvaMHL562224
59Rasmus RudslättRW6’0″181AIK J20J20 Nationell452526
60Yegor GorbunovF6’1″187Belye Medvedi ChelyabinskMHL341417
61Oskar HaasC/W6’0″163HC Oceláři Třinec U20Czechia U20262122
62Valdemar JohanssonC/LW5’11”172Multiple TeamsJ20 Nationell221216
63Miroslav MikhalyovF5’10”157Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL542529
64Yaroslav BusyginD6’3″187Vityaz Moscow RegionKHL4622
65Konsta KapanenLW5’9″161KalPa U20U20 SM-sarja23722
66Ivan RyabovF5’11”185MHK Krylia Sovetov MoskvaMHL33917
67Onni LeppänenC/W5’8″165Jokerit U20U20 SM-sarja311325
68Nikolai KhvorovF6’1″168Omskie YastrebyMHL621239
69Jeremi TammelaC5’9″179Lukko U20U20 SM-sarja452135
70Maxim MaltsevC5’11”201Loko YaroslavlMHL592424
71Maxim SapezhnikovRW5’8″179Amurskie Tigry KhabarovskMHL461822
72Gleb Al. IvanovD6’0″176Torpedo Nizhny NovgorodKHL5915
73Adrian CarneboD6’2″185Djurgårdens IF J20J20 Nationell49733
74Maddox FlemingRW6’1″194Sioux Falls StampedeUSHL591334
75Dakota MacIntoshC6’2″201Alberni Valley BulldogsBCHL502834
76Dmitri KatelevskyC6’0″174Bars KazanVHL1972
77Sam CourtD5’10”190Brooks BanditsAJHL671364
78Otto HokkanenC/W6’2″187SaiPa U20U20 SM-sarja251116
79Tommaso De LucaC/LW6’0″187Spokane ChiefsWHL651633
80Matvei LadutkoF5’11”183Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL511622
81Luke WoodworthC5’9″154Drummondville VoltigeursQMJHL772049
82Dylan GodboutF5’11”185Sioux City MusketeersUSHL641435
83Vladislav RazdyakonovF5’10”150Avto YekaterinburgMHL572718
84Chase PietilaD6’1″185Youngstown PhantomsUSHL69734
85Vladislav RomanovLW6’2″192SKA-1946 St. PetersburgMHL531728
86Eli SebastianC6’0″185Green Bay GamblersUSHL651732
87Ruslan GimbatovF6’5″209MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL361117
88Andrei KozlovF5’8″157Stalnye Lisy MagnitogorskMHL542217
89Robin SapousekC6’0″148HC Energie Karlovy Vary U20Czechia U20211514
90Ilya KvochkoC/LW5’9″168Stalnye Lisy MagnitogorskMHL511132
91Martin JohnsenC5’10”176Färjestad BK J20J20 Nationell361425
92Nikolaus HeiglF5’10”174RB Hockey JuniorsAlps Hockey League201122
93Nikolai DumchenkoD6’4″203MHK Dynamo St. PetersburgMHL49823
94Ilya RogovskyC/LW5’11”179Multiple TeamsMHL612027
95Venni TolppolaC/RW6’0″163Lukko U20U20 SM-sarja35927
96Miro JärvenpääF6’1″170Lukko U20U20 SM-sarja431831
97Filipp PermyakovLW6’1″172Tolpar UfaMHL551734
98Vladimir KorobintsevF6’0″161Mamonty YugryMHL582327
99Vadim FattakhovF5’8″143MHK Spartak MoskvaMHL472516
100Daniil LipskyF6’1″181Dinamo-Shinnik BobruyskMHL551326

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

Evaluating the Seattle Kraken’s 2023 NHL Draft class

Evaluating the Seattle Kraken’s 2023 NHL Draft class

As the calendar turns to August, we will be shifting our focus full time to the upcoming NHL season soon. Before we do that, though, at least one piece of offseason business remains–a recap of the Seattle Kraken’s 2023 NHL Draft. 

How do the Kraken draft picks stack up on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board? How have public draft experts graded Seattle’s performance? What do we know about the newest Kraken players? Let’s dive in.

For the second year in a row, the Kraken accumulated a deep and talented class

Last year, at the 2022 NHL Draft, the Seattle Kraken leveraged extra draft picks in the second round to acquire five of the top 50 players on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. 

Remarkably, history repeated itself at the 2023 NHL Draft. Again the Kraken were armed with extra second-round picks from the team’s trades at the 2022 NHL trade deadline, and again the team came away with five top-50 players on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Seattle’s five top-50 players tied San Jose for most in the NHL. No other team obtained more than three.

The key distinction this year was that Seattle’s own draft picks were those of a playoff team, rather than those of a 60-point team. Last year, the Kraken were able to grab the No. 1 overall player on the Big Board, Shane Wright, but did not have a similar opportunity to draft any true top-tier amateur players this year.

That said, the Kraken did take (at least) two high-upside swings during the 2023 draft on players that have the potential to provide top-tier production. Seattle’s first-round pick Eduard Sale was frequently projected as a top-10 draft choice after his draft-minus-one year in which he posted 99 points in 44 games in Czechia’s top junior league. His season was so good, he made the rare leap to Extraliga, Czechia’s top pro league, as a 17-year-old. He played a limited role, though, and met adversity playing against veterans in one of the best professional leagues in the world. Still lauded as one of the most skilled playmakers and scorers in the draft, the Kraken could have a top-tier talent if Sale can find his offensive footing again.

Likewise, the Kraken took a big swing at offensive talent in the later stages of the second round in the form of Tri-City defenseman Lukas Dragicevic. Setting aside high school players, Dragicevic scored more total points (79) and on a per-game basis (1.07 points per game) than any other right-handed defenseman in the 2023 NHL Draft. Some scouts question whether Dragicevic can be good enough defensively, but his potential as a blueliner proficient in the transition game and on the power play is significant.

Overall, Seattle consistently found value with their draft picks–at least in the eyes of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. In total, only 87 players were selected at a draft position equal to or later than the player’s rank on the Big Board. In other words, these are the choices that the Big Board would deem a “value” pick. The Kraken selected seven of those 87 players, most in the league. No other team selected more than five. Columbus, Las Vegas, San Jose, and Philadelphia each accomplished that feat.

Public draft analysts ranked the Kraken draft class highly

For these reasons, it is not surprising that public draft analysts (upon whose work the Big Board was built) were generally complimentary of Seattle’s draft, frequently referencing it among the strongest draft classes assembled:

Seattle’s draft picks bring a wide array of talents

Pick No. 20, Eduard Sale, LW, HC Kometa Brno (Czechia)

Height: 73 inches | Weight: 168 lbs | Shot: L | 7 goals, 7 assists, 49 games played

Big Board: 17 | Highest rank: 7 (Craig Button)

Analytics Rank: 21 | NHLe Rank: 25

Scouting perspective: “[Sale is] a smooth skater who is noticeable in transition for both his ability to weave up ice and facilitate and also his ability to create breakaways for himself and beat goalies one-on-one. He’s got superb vision and ranks among the best in the class at dissecting coverage as a passer. I love him on the half-wall/point on the PP with his ability to hit east-west seams (he just seems to see every lane and opening). He can slow it down and pick things apart or hurry up his passes through holes. He has shown a knack for making big plays at big moments and can really shoot it, whether with a quick-release wrister or his dangerous one-timer.” – Scott Wheeler

Pick analysis: Eduard Sale came to Seattle Kraken Development Camp and showed rust early. He was nondescript for long stretches. But by the end of the three-on-three scrimmage on the last day, he was starting to show the skill that made him a top prospect coming into the 2022-23 season. In one sequence he showed high-end handling and scoring touch, roofing a backhander. Sale is likely to come to Kraken camp in the fall and then spend the season with the Barrie Colts in the OHL. How he progresses this year is of paramount importance to Seattle’s prospect pipeline. 

You can find our full analysis of the draft pick in the June 28 post “Breaking news: Seattle Kraken draft Eduard Sale at No. 20.” 

Pick No. 50, Carson Rehkopf, LW, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

Height: 73 inches | Weight: 194 lbs | Shot: L | 32 goals, 33 assists, 77 games played

Big Board: 48 | Highest rank: 36 (Peter Baracchini)

Analytics Rank: 39 | NHLe Rank: 78

Scouting perspective: “Rehkopf is [a] bigger build with an interesting blend of size and skill. He has a pro level frame and shot already. . . . He has also shown the ability to play both down the middle and on the wing. . . . If able to develop his skill set effectively, there could be a . . . middle-six forward that can dominate middle ice. He also has the length and active stick to provide value on a penalty kill unit. There are concerns about Rehkopf’s engagement with the play off the puck, as well as his commitment to physical play . . . .” – Ben Jordan

Pick analysis: Rehkopf has no shortage of physical tools, and his skills impressed during portions of Seattle Kraken Development Camp too when he displayed a heavy and accurate shot. Rehkopf’s counting stats during his 2022-23 season in the OHL were good but not elite, and scouting reports cast doubt on his off-puck engagement and defensive-zone play. On the other hand, Seattle Director of Amateur Scouting Robert Kron complimented Rehkopf’s two-way game when describing the pick. Rehkopf feels like a player with volatility in his projection, but with several different avenues to earn professional playing time. 

You can find our full analysis of the draft pick in the June 29 post “Seattle Kraken draft Carson Rehkopf at No. 50.”

Pick No. 52, Oscar Fisker Molgaard, C, HV71 (SHL)

Height: 72 inches | Weight: 163 lbs | Shot: L | 4 goals, 3 assists, 41 games played

Big Board: 38 | Highest rank: 23 (Dobber Prospects)

Analytics Rank: 52 | NHLe Rank: 143

Scouting perspective: “Molgaard’s excellent defensive work has resulted in him playing most of his year in the prestigious SHL mainly as a role player. Molgaard has an . . . exceptional defensive toolset and a composed mindset lets him disrupt his opponents frequently and successfully. Offensively, he has understandably struggled at the SHL level given his role but his nippy skating has been a danger in the lower levels. At international and the U-20 level Molgaard proved he can ‘the guy’ with driving offense with great vision for teammates and a well-rounded skillset.” – Joe Maciag

Pick analysis: Molgaard exudes maturity. This manifests on the ice, where he displayed a responsible two-way game in the SHL as a 17-year-old. It also shows off the ice in his dealings with the media, including his interview with Sound Of Hockey’s own John Barr and Darren Brown. The question with Molgaard is whether he can score enough to play at the NHL level. Further developing his offensive skill level is key to his future.

You can find our full analysis of the pick in the June 29 post “Seattle Kraken draft Oscar Fisker Molgaard at No. 52.”

Pick No. 57, Lukas Dragicevic, D, Tri-City Americans (WHL)

Height: 74 inches | Weight: 181 lbs | Shot: R | 15 goals, 64 assists, 74 games played

Big Board: 33 | Highest rank: 20 (McKeen’s Hockey)

Analytics Rank: 19 | NHLe Rank: 8

Scouting perspective: “Lukas Dragicevic is the best offensive defenceman in this year’s draft. No one combines his level of puck skills, vision, and activation. For both of his WHL seasons, Tri-City’s offence has flowed through him. He’s the initiator, connector, and often the finisher. And he led the team in ice time both seasons – no small feat for a player who switched from forward just a few years ago. . . . Full stop, the defence must improve to get the green light in the NHL.” – Elite Prospects

Pick analysis: Before the draft, I mentioned Dragicevic as a first-round candidate based on his rare point production from the blue line. Match that production with a right-handed shot, six-foot-two frame, and skating talent (even if it is still in need of refinement), and you have a defenseman with almost every quality a player development program could ask for. His movements and reads on defense, particularly defending the rush, will need to improve, but it’s not a long shot to think those improvements will come since he has only played as a blueliner for three years. 

You can find our full analysis of the pick in the June 30 post “Seattle Kraken draft Lukas Dragicevic at No. 57.”

Pick No. 84, Caden Price, D, Kelowna Rockets (WHL)

Height: 73 inches | Weight: 181 lbs | Shot: L | 6 goals, 36 assists, 69 games played

Big Board: 50 | Highest rank: 28 (Dobber Prospects)

Analytics Rank: 50 | NHLe Rank: 55

Scouting perspective: “Kelowna asked [Caden Price] to take on a lot of responsibility as the leader of their blue line, but the Rockets never fully clicked as a team, and when things started to go sideways, he didn’t have a lot of support underneath him. He didn’t look ready or comfortable in the role he had, so the challenge for scouts now is trying to determine what sort of role you can project for him as a future NHLer. The most appealing thing about his game is that there really isn’t anything unappealing about it. He’s well-rounded and highly versatile. With good smarts, a relatively full toolbox and a can-do attitude he can play the game any way you want him to, and every coach loves having guys like that around.” – McKeen’s Hockey

Pick analysis: Price is another defenseman long on both physical tools and skills. He has not put it all together into game production to the same extent as Lukas Dragicevic, but his advocates in the scouting community suggest he can still do it and ascend into that upper echelon. Others look at Price and scratch their heads as to why he didn’t produce more offensively and defensively. This coming season will be crucial for Price as he will likely have a featured role on the Kelowna blue line. Can he shore up his defensive game and get closer to a point per game on the offensive side? He’ll have the opportunity.

You can find our full analysis of the pick in the July 2 post “Seattle Kraken draft Caden Price at No. 84.”

Pick No. 116, Andrei Loshko, C, Chicoutimi Saguenéens (QMJHL)

Height: 73 inches | Weight: 170 lbs | Shot: L | 22 goals, 49 assists, 72 games played

Big Board: 122 | Highest rank: 89 (FC Hockey)

Analytics Rank: 98 | NHLe Rank: 113

Scouting perspective: “Loshko plays like a veteran. He’s the player the coach sends over the boards to counter the opposition’s top line, to play on the penalty kill, and protect leads. His mature game impressed our staff in every single viewing. He applied his team’s system well and offered timely passing options to teammates in transition. ‘He reloads defensively, anticipates the next play of opponents, supports teammates on breakouts, and knows his next play in possession,’ Elite Prospects lead scout David St-Louis wrote in a November report. ‘The hockey sense looks above-average — offensively, too. He’s really intriguing.’” – Elite Prospects

Pick analysis: Scouts credit Loshko for playing a simple but effective two-way game. He is able to slow down the chaos around him and make the right play more often than not. Whether he can keep up with professional pace and score enough in the NHL is an open question, but most scouts that got a close look at him came away raving about him and describing a potential fourth-line checking forward.

Andrei Loshko
Andrei Loshko shoots the puck at Kraken Development Camp (Photo/Brian Liesse)

Pick No. 148, Kaden Hammell, D, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

Height: 74 inches | Weight: 181 lbs | Shot: R | 8 goals, 18 assists, 72 games played

Big Board: 167 | Highest rank: 92 (McKeen’s Hockey)

Analytics Rank: 146 | NHLe Rank: 240

Scouting perspective: “[Hammell’s] game so far has certainly leaned much further on the defensive side than the offensive one. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however, as leaning into that specialty might be the best application of his tools. He’s strong and sturdy in his lower body and combines that with clean footwork and a long reach to be a real pain in the neck to get through or behind in one-on-one situations. He’s tough and physical, whether that’s by driving players into the boards hard and pinning them there or battling them tooth and nail in front of his goalie, and he can play this way without getting whistled for unnecessary penalties. He’s going to get a lot of opportunities over the next two seasons to diversify and expand his game through more encouraged usage as a puck-mover and offense creator, but maybe temper expectations about how successful that will go.” – McKeen’s Hockey

Pick analysis: This pick has an interesting blend of “floor” and “ceiling.” On the one hand, Hammell is a six-foot-two, physical, righty defenseman, with solid athleticism whom scouts believe should be able to play representative defense. Those traits carry a lot of value in the NHL and could earn him professional minutes. On the other hand, Hammell was believed to be an exciting offensive prospect coming into the 2022-23 season, and according to scouts, he did show solid passing and transition game skills, even if the point totals lagged. Hammell will play this coming season in Everett, so Seattle will be able to monitor his development closely.

Pick No. 168, Visa Vedenpaa, G, Kärpät U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

Height: 74 inches | Weight: 170 lbs | Catches: L | .886 save percentage, 31 games played

Big Board: 222

Analytics Rank: 1937 | NHLe Rank: 1017

Scouting perspective: “Visa Vedenpää is an exciting young goaltender in the Kärpät development system in Finland. . . . Playing with good instincts, he reacts well to broken or quick- developing plays. His strong technical base puts him into position to do that, because he stays within the frame and is rarely caught out of his net. He plays with moderate depth, with his heels generally at the top of the crease on plays off the rush. . . . His skating ability might be his weakest aspect.” – Elite Prospects

Pick analysis: Seattle drafted goalie Niklas Kokko out of Kärpät U20 in Finland in the 2022 draft and came back for an encore in 2023, selecting the goalie that took Kokko’s place for that same club, Vedenpaa. The success of the Kärpät program in developing goaltenders is well documented, and it surely didn’t hurt that Kokko appears to have taken a further step forward since he was drafted. Vedenpaa is highly regarded by the Finnish National Team, as he was one of three Finnish goalies brought to the World Juniors Summer Showcase. He is unlikely to be at the 2024 World Juniors–that should be Kokko and Topias Leinonen–but the invitation suggests he’s a prime candidate to be in net in 2025.

Niklas Kokko and Visa Vedenpaa watch the Kraken Development Camp scrimmage (Photo/Brian Liesse)

Pick No. 180, Zeb Forsfjall, C, Skellefteå AIK (SHL)

Height: 69 inches | Weight: 168 lbs | Shot: L | 1 goal, 0 assists, 18 games played

Big Board: 104 | Highest ranking: 49 (Peter Baracchini)

Analytics Rank: 187 | NHLe Rank: 1919

Scouting perspective: “Forsfjall is a strong playmaking forward. He can run a power play well enough and find seams to create chances. He has good hands and can create in small areas too. He’s not that big or physical, but Forsfjall gives an honest effort every night, can PK, and wins enough puck battles. Forsfjall has played center in junior regularly but I’m guessing he’s a wing as a pro due to his frame. He has strong speed and in-tight quickness although it’s not elite small guy skating. He has talent, but whether there’s enough in his game to be a legit NHL’er is up for debate” – Corey Pronman

Pick analysis: Easy agility on the ice, plus speed, strong puck handling in transition, and tenacity and instincts on defense, particularly penalty kill, characterize Forsfjall’s game. He did not score very much as a 17-year-old fourth-line center in the SHL, but that is to be expected. It’s easy to see the value he brings and fall in love with him as a player, but the question will be whether he can squeeze enough offense out of his profile to succeed. He is a willing forechecker, but light on his skates and won’t be moving hulking defenders off the puck. His shot seems solid, but he has not been able to use it to generate much production yet.

Pick No. 212, Zaccharya Wisdom, RW, Cedar Rapids RoughRiders (USHL)

Height: 73 inches | Weight: 172 lbs | Shot: R | 29 goals, 20 assists, 64 games played

Big Board: 207 | Highest ranking: 164 (McKeen’s Hockey)

Analytics Rank: 584 | NHLe Rank: 461

Scouting perspective: “The significant improvement in production this year thanks to improved on-puck play has put him back on the draft radar. Still a high energy and tenacious off-puck player, Wisdom can now drive play with the puck on his stick thanks to upgrades made to his skating and refinements made to his skill and finishing ability. His upside is likely still pretty limited, but the well-rounded nature of his game makes him an ideal bottom six candidate.” – McKeen’s Hockey

Pick analysis: Wisdom is an overaged, physical winger, who took a step forward with his puck handling and scoring during his 2022-23 season in the USHL, according to scouts. Some see a late-blooming power forward profile capable of earning a bottom-six role down the road. His low point production and age work against him, though. Wisdom is bound for Colorado College in the fall, so he has a longer development timeline and an opportunity to continue to build his game brick-by-brick at the NCAA level.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

Will the Kraken regress in shooting percentage this season?

Will the Kraken regress in shooting percentage this season?

Two months into the 2022-23 NHL season there was a national media narrative going around that the Kraken’s early season success was driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage and that it was just a matter of time before they would drop toward the bottom of the Pacific Division. That scenario never played out, and the Kraken finished the season with 100 points in the standings. Seattle ultimately turned out the second-highest shooting percentage in the league at 11.6 percent, behind only the Edmonton Oilers.

One would think the 82 regular-season games and 14 games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs would have been enough of a sample size to recognize the Kraken were not lucky, they were good. However, this offseason, the concept of a shooting percentage regression is starting to bleed into the conversation again. We could just dismiss this criticism as somebody viewing the team from afar, but I thought the best thing to do was dig into the numbers myself.

Power play contributions

The first thing I thought about is if the Kraken’s high shooting percentage is being propped up by a disproportionate number of power-play goals. The theory here is that because teams have a higher shooting percentage on the power play, a disproportionate number of goals on the power play could have inflated the Kraken’s shooting percentage to the rest of the league.

That was not the case last season…

Seattle had the fourth-lowest percentage of its goals scored on the power play. This was driven by a lower-than-average number of power-play opportunities and poor power-play conversion by the Kraken. They were ranked 21st in the league in both opportunities and conversion. The Kraken’s shooting percentage on the power play was close to league average, thus not inflating their overall shooting percentage. Conversely, Edmonton had the highest shooting percentage on the power play across the league.

The below visual also illustrates that the Kraken had the highest shooting percentage at even strength.

The Kraken’s high shooting percentage is not being propped up by the power play.

Their strength was their depth

The story of the 2022-23 Seattle Kraken was that their strength was their depth. I have often described the Kraken as a team with three second lines and one third line.

With that context, my theory is that the Kraken’s high shooting percentage is attributed to the fact their third and fourth lines are better than most team’s third and fourth lines. Therefore, we did not see a drop-off in shooting percentages that most other teams in the league had deeper in their lineups.

To investigate that theory, I would need to classify all players into where they fit in their respective lineup. Since depth charts are subjective and can often change throughout the year, that is next to impossible to come up with a clear rule around defining lines for all 32 teams. Instead, I am ranking the players with the most minutes played for the team and then bucketing them into groups of three for the forwards and groups of two for the defensemen.

As such, these are not “lines” in the traditional sense, but more tiers of contributions by minutes. For example, the first group for the Kraken is Alex Wennberg, Jordan Eberle, and Yanni Gourde because those three forwards logged the most minutes for the Kraken, even though Wennberg played most with Jaden Schwartz and Oliver Bjorkstrand throughout the season. It is not perfect, but it is a fair proxy for overall contribution when comparing across teams.

Forwards shooting percentage

This might be stating the obvious, but forwards generally have a higher shooting percentage and log more shots compared to defensemen, so it is important that we evaluate them separately. When we look at each group based on their total minutes played for their team, Seattle’s first forward group ranked as one of the lowest in the league for shooting percentage. But, as you can see below, the Kraken ranked in the top seven for shooting percentage for all other forward groups.

This would support the claim that the depth of this team is its strength, and therefore contributed to its relatively high shooting percentage.

For more context, this is how the groupings played out using the logic explained above.

Note that Eeli Tolvanen, who was acquired on waivers halfway through the season, did not have enough time on ice for the Kraken to make it into Seattle’s top 12 for time played. Tolvanen ranked second in shooting percentage behind Jared McCann for players with over 10 games for the Kraken.

Defensemen shooting percentages

On the defensive side, the Kraken’s top two pairs rank in the top four in shooting percentage.

The defensive contribution pairs align to the actual depth chart pairs for most of the season.

Individual skater shooting percentages

Another area we should evaluate is which Seattle Kraken players had a shooting percentage in 2022-23 that was above their three-year-average shooting percentage. Was this a case where most of the players were shooting above their average? Or was the team constructed of a collection of better shooters compared to other teams?

Here is how the individual shooting percentages break down against players’ three-year averages, with the blue bars representing shooting percentages above a player’s three-year average and the orange bars representing shooting percentages below.

Of the forward group, six players had higher than their three-year average, while six players had below their average. On defense, four out of the six defensemen had above-average shooting percentages. Attempting to be objective, it is conceivable and probably likely Jared McCann, Schwartz, and Tolvanen will see a regression in their shooting percentages, but conversely, it would be equally likely that Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky, and Gourde see improvements in that category. In Bjorkstrand’s case, he seems positioned to improve his shooting percentage. Remember, he took some time getting used to his new team and was ice cold early in the season, only to hit his stride in the second half of the year.

On the blue line, it is likely that Jamie Oleksiak and Justin Schultz see regressions as well, but keep in mind they only accounted for 3.7 percent and 6.6 percent of the Kraken shots respectively. So, a drop in their shooting percentages won’t impact the team’s overall shooting percentage compared to a drop in Eberle’s, for example, who accounted for 11.7 percent of the Kraken’s shots on his own.

Kraken departures

Most Kraken fans might have noticed that the fourth group of forwards in the table above is made up exclusively of players that are no longer with the Kraken. Ryan Donato (CHI), Morgan Geekie (BOS), and Daniel Sprong (DET) have all signed with other teams this offseason. On the surface, that is a significant number of goals to replace in the lineup.

Let us put aside the shooting percentages for a moment. Collectively, the three departing forwards had 44 goals, and the Kraken will need to replace a good portion of those goals to replicate last season’s success. A full season from Burakovsky should add 10 goals, and the new addition of Kailer Yamamoto should add at least 10 goals as well. The remaining 20-goal gap will need to be filled by a mix of Shane Wright, John Hayden, Kole Lind, Tye Kartye, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. Who of those five players draw into the lineup is probably the biggest question heading into the season, with Lind and Kartye being the most natural goal scorers of the group. It is also still a question if AHL success for players like Lind and Kartye can translate to the NHL for a full season.

Yamamoto’s 10.3 percent shooting percentage last season is lower than all three of the Kraken departures, but his career shooting percentage is 13.9 percent, so we should anticipate a rebound. The other players looking to crack the lineup are less predictable, since most of them have limited NHL experience.

Wrapping it up

When you hear people talking about a shooting regression from the Kraken, take it with a grain of salt. If it does happen, it will most likely be driven by the departure of the Kraken’s fourth line of Donato, Geekie, and Sprong. All three of them are good shooters, and it was reflected in the numbers. Yamamoto should be able to replace one of them, and the Kraken hope to get a full season of Burakovsky and Tolvanen, both of whom have above-average shots that will offset some of the loss of the other two fourth-line players.

Projecting a contract extension for Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers

Projecting a contract extension for Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers

On June 26, Matty Beniers took the stage at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., to accept the Calder Trophy as the NHL rookie of the year. It was the culmination of a memorable first full pro season for the 20-year-old forward. Beniers scored more than any other rookie, totaling 24 goals and 33 assists in 80 regular-season games. He also played an impressive two-way game, checking difficult top-six forwards night in and night out.

Shortly after the awards ceremony, Kraken ownership and general manager Ron Francis met with Beniers and his agent Pat Brisson. The Kraken were in a busy period between the NHL Draft and free agency but made an appointment with Brisson to circle back on Beniers’s contract. “We said ‘let’s get through . . . a few days and then we’ll start talking,’” Francis recounted a few days later.

So, is the team interested in signing Beniers to a contract extension this summer? “We’d like to do that, for sure,” Francis said.  

With Vince Dunn signed, Seattle’s focus may now be on Beniers. So, there is no better time to take a look at Beniers’s contract status, why the Kraken are interested in signing Beniers now, and what it might take to get pen to paper.

Beniers became eligible for a contract extension this summer

The 2023-24 season is the final year of Matty Beniers’s three-year entry-level contract (ELC). Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), a team and player can negotiate and agree to an extension of any multi-year contract, including an ELC, only in the last year of that deal. July 1, 2023, was the first day of the 2023-24 league year, and, as of that date, Beniers became eligible for a contract extension for the first time. 

This is an important inflection point when the team and player must grapple with the player’s demonstrated value. Highly drafted players like Beniers have leverage to negotiate for extra performance bonuses in an ELC, but the base compensation package is a fixed amount near the league minimum. In contrast, a contract extension is not limited to any particular structure, except that (1) the term may not go beyond an upper limit of 8 years, and (2) the average annual value (AAV) must fall between an upper limit (20 percent of the salary cap) and lower limit ($775,000). 

Upon expiration of the ELC, Beniers is scheduled to be a restricted free agent without arbitration rights. (Need an explainer on anything related to restricted free agency? Check out the appendix to this post.) In theory, if Beniers is not re-signed before next summer, he could talk with other teams and solicit an “offer sheet.” For all intents and purposes, though, this is a contract negotiation between two parties, Beniers and the Kraken. 

Beniers and Seattle could be motivated to deal

Can the team and player reach an agreement on a long-term extension? Both sides are likely open to the concept. 

From the team’s perspective, there are many positives to a long-term deal. Beniers is an early prime player, still on the upward trajectory of his anticipated aging curve. Securing his services long term based on his performance to date may yield surplus contract value down the road. Furthermore, the salary cap is likely to start escalating at (or almost) five percent per season starting next summer. Locking Beniers in now could look even better in four years when the salary cap is $100 million. 

Speaking of which, if the team’s true “window” to compete is in the mid-to-late 2020’s–as I argued in a post earlier this week–minimizing Beniers’s cap hit in that timeframe should be the team’s priority. Signing a long-term deal now is the best way to accomplish that.

On the other hand, the team’s downside on a long-term extension is limited by a CBA rule that allows clubs to buy out remaining years on the contract of a player 25 years old or younger at one third of the remaining contract value. Beniers will not be 26 until Nov., 2028. This means that even in a disastrous scenario, the Kraken would still have flexibility for the majority of the contract term to move on from Beniers with limited salary cap consequences.

For Beniers’s part, a long-term deal also makes sense. Even after the 2023-24 season, he will still be at least five years from unrestricted free agency. A long-term extension would provide him with some security against performance regression or injury. The latter consideration is surely a factor for the slight-framed center. As I will detail below, similar dynamics have led to a spate of long-term deals for similarly positioned young forwards over the last couple years. 

Therefore, the key to a successful long-term agreement will be finding common ground on contract AAV. If the sides can’t do that, they may defer further negotiations to next summer or agree to a “bridge” extension at a lower rate. Bridge deals are shorter contracts, in the range of one-to-four years, that cover some but not all of a player’s restricted free agent years. These agreements set up another contract negotiation between the team and player closer to unrestricted free agency. 

Bridge deals make sense for mid-roster players or players with high uncertainty in their projections. For example, Seattle and Vince Dunn agreed to a two-year bridge deal after the Expansion Draft. That two-year contract set up this summer’s negotiation. The Dunn example underscores the risk of a bridge deal from the team’s perspective. The team may get a lower AAV for the term of the bridge deal itself, but, oftentimes, the player’s leverage is higher after the bridge deal expires because he is closer to unrestricted free agency. This could cause the team to pay more for less productive, post-peak seasons in order to keep the player. Seattle seemingly avoided that with Dunn by signing him to a deal that ends when he will be 30 years old.

Comparable contracts could guide the negotiations

I gathered contract information from CapFriendly. Matty Beniers has played 90 games and scored 66 points (.733 points per game). Using CapFriendly’s contract comparable tool, I compiled a long list of contracts signed by players as restricted free agents, at a similar age, and with similar games played and points totals at the time of signing.

From this long list I further filtered the results manually, looking for the players that were most similar in point-per-game production and in Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) analytic, which accounts for gameplay contributions beyond point totals.

This process yielded a set of recent contracts with young forwards that will likely serve as a reference point for Beniers and the team. Beniers has less experience and total production than most of these comparables, which weighs against him, but his per-game point production and advanced analytics tend to be similar or better, which weighs in his favor.

For each of these contracts, CapFriendly supplied not only the dollar average annual value (AAV) of the deal, but also the percentage of the salary cap the AAV represented at the time the deal was signed. Using this percentage, I was able to adjust these contracts into a present value by multiplying the percentage by the current NHL salary cap ($83.5 million). This facilitates a fairer, direct comparison to a potential Beniers deal. I refer to this figure as the “cap-adjusted AAV” below.

Let’s dive in.

Reference player: Matty Beniers, Center
Statistics at (potential) signing: 90 games played | 66 points | 20 years old

Comparable no. 1: Joshua Norris, Center
Contract: 8 years, $7.95 million AAV ($8,049,000 cap-adjusted AAV)
Signing date: July 14, 2022
Statistics at signing: 125 games played | 90 points | 23 years old

Contract comparable no. 2: Tim Stutzle, Center
Contract: 8 years, $8.35 million AAV ($8,450,200 cap-adjusted AAV)
Signing date: September 7, 2022
Statistics at signing: 132 games played | 87 points | 21 years old

Contract comparable no. 3: Nick Suzuki, Center
Contract: 8 years, $7.875 million AAV ($8,066,100 cap-adjusted AAV)
Signing date: October 12, 2021
Statistics at signing: 127 games played | 82 points | 22 years old

Contract comparable no. 4: Nico Hischier, Center
Contract: 7 years, $7.25 million AAV ($7,431,500 cap-adjusted AAV)
Signing date: October 18, 2019
Statistics at signing: 156 games played | 101 points | 21 years old

Contract comparable no. 5: John Tavares, Center
Contract: 6 years, $5.50 million AAV ($7,139,250 cap-adjusted AAV)
Signing date: September 14, 2011
Statistics at signing: 161 games played | 121 points | 20 years old

Contract comparable no. 6: Nazem Kadri, Center
Contract: 2 years, $2.90 million AAV ($3,765,850 cap-adjusted AAV)
Signing date: September 10, 2013
Statistics at signing: 99 games played | 63 points | 22 years old

Contract comparable no. 7: Logan Couture, Center
Contract: 2 years, $2.875 million AAV ($3,732,450 cap-adjusted AAV)
Signing date: August 30, 2011
Statistics at signing: 104 games played | 65 points | 22 years old

The comparable contracts above reveal a pretty tight range for a long-term deal between the team and the Calder Trophy winner–an eight-year term at somewhere between $7.15 million and $8.45 million AAV. Failing agreement in that range, a bridge deal might look something like a two-year deal around $3.75 million AAV.

Projecting a contract for Matty Beniers

Based on the comparables above, I’ll project that the Kraken and Matty Beniers agree to an eight-year extension this summer (or early in the 2023-24 season) worth approximately $8 million AAV, give or take a few hundred thousand dollars. This would make Beniers the team’s highest-paid player when the extension kicks in, but keeps him close enough within range of Dunn’s recent $7.35 million AAV contract that he will not carry undue pressure as the team’s singular star player. Any issues in the room with making a 20-year-old the team’s highest-paid player would be mitigated somewhat by the fact that Beniers would still play this coming season under his existing ELC that calls for a base salary of just $897,500.

That said, there are a few reasons to be skeptical that this type of deal will get done. Francis has never signed a player to an eight-year contract. He has also never signed a player to a contract worth more than $37.1 million in total value (Jaccob Slavin was the highest total contract), $7.35 million AAV (Dunn was the highest AAV), or 8.8 percent of total cap hit (Dunn again). It will likely require new highs in each of these measures to sign Beniers long term.

Further, one of Beniers’s closer comparable contracts not included in the above list is Elias Lindholm’s 2015 deal with Francis’s Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes and a 20-year-old Lindholm agreed to a two-year bridge deal worth $2.7 million AAV ($3,156,300 AAV in cap-adjusted terms). Lindholm’s point production at that time (.43 points per game) pales in comparison with Beniers’s pace (.72 points per game), however.

Finally, it is reasonable to point out that Francis resisted giving defenseman Vince Dunn a long-term deal earlier this summer. While many saw an eight-year deal as a foregone conclusion, Francis eventually signed Dunn for just four years.

Beniers’s case is different than Dunn’s case in several material respects, though. First, Beniers is much younger than Dunn, and it is much easier to project him to sustain or improve his performance level to date. 

Second, while Beniers’s track record is shorter than Dunn’s, he has not fallen below an above-average performance level at any point in his hockey career. Dunn’s record has been more volatile. As recently as the 2021-22 season, Dunn looked like a talented but mistake-prone, second-pair defenseman.

Third, Beniers has a rare profile. He is a second overall pick and a Calder Trophy winner who plays a premium position and displays leadership qualities on and off the ice. He’s the type of player any team would like to have as a cornerstone. While there are risks, particularly given that Beniers has only one full season of NHL experience, I think the team and player will find common ground on an extension that keeps the young forward in the Pacific Northwest long term.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

The Kraken have an aging roster but a bright future and a “competitive window”

The Kraken have an aging roster but a bright future and a “competitive window”

We hear a lot about it, but when is the “competitive window” open for the Seattle Kraken? It’s a question John Barr and Darren Brown received in the most recent Sound Of Hockey Podcast mailbag episode, and one I’ve been thinking about.

Asked about the expected timeframe for a typical Kraken draft pick to debut in the NHL, general manager Ron Francis said on July 1, “It’s probably a three-to-four-year timeline.” Francis might as well have been describing the shelf life of the current iteration of the Seattle Kraken team, though.

Digging into the data, the Kraken have one of the oldest rosters in the NHL and have relied heavily on those older players to produce. But unlike some teams, the Kraken are not locked into their current roster long term. Many contracts phase out over the next couple years, and Seattle has no contracts at all with more than four years of term remaining. This puts them in rare company. The Kraken are one of only two NHL teams with zero dollars in cap commitments after the 2026-27 season.

All of this points to significant roster turnover in the coming years. It also gets us back to that question Francis received—about the timeline for Seattle’s prospects. With any luck, several of a trove of high draft picks from Seattle’s first three drafts will start pushing for NHL roles between the 2024-25 season (the fourth season after Seattle’s first draft) and the 2026-27 season (the fourth season after the team’s third and most recent draft).

It’s easy to see the fit with the timing of the team’s NHL deals. If things go according to plan, in three-to-four years, Kraken homegrown talent will be contributing on cheaper contracts, and the team will have relatively clean books to supplement that talent via free agency. If the draft picks do not work out, the team will still be in position to reset, unhampered by long contracts for declining players. Seattle would be able to trade its last big NHL contracts, restock its draft picks, and try again.

There is a lot of work ahead for the Kraken front office, but they’ve put the team in an enviable position. On the one hand, the Kraken are contending for the playoffs with their current roster. On the other hand, they have the resources—both in terms of prospects and future cap space—to take a further step forward in three-to-four years. The status of the Kraken roster suggests this may be the true “competitive window” the team is targeting.

Kraken prospects are finally starting to knock at the door

Tye Kartye advances the puck (Photo/Brian Liesse)

As Francis noted, it takes time for drafted prospects to start to arrive at the NHL level. “Ideally it’s two more years, if they’re in juniors, and then they start coming up the American [Hockey] League,” Francis explained.

Seattle is just now two full seasons removed from its inaugural draft. Right on Francis’s schedule, the Coachella Valley Firebirds will see their first significant influx of young talent this season, with drafted prospects Jacob Melanson, Ryan Winterton, Tucker Robertson, and Ville Ottavainen, and undrafted free agent Logan Morrison, all projected to join the team.

That group is only the beginning. Across three drafts, the Seattle Kraken have used 17 top-100 draft picks. That total is third most in the league behind only the Chicago Blackhawks (19) and the Arizona Coyotes (18). This is significant. Consider that six teams—the Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs—have made just four top-100 picks in the same span.

While the first of Seattle’s draft picks, Matty Beniers, has already emerged as a legitimate NHL player, the rest are still developing. It is still too soon to know what they will be, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the group of players Seattle has coming.

Most notably, the team has secured a stable of high-scoring forwards from the junior hockey ranks. According to data tracked by Pick224, among those playing at least 20 CHL games last season, the Seattle Kraken had five of the top 25 in primary points per game—Melanson, Morrison, Shane Wright, David Goyette, and Jagger Firkus.

This group is supported by a diverse cupboard of skaters bringing physicality and scoring (Tye Kartye and Jani Nyman) or defensive profiles (Oscar Fisker Mølgaard and Zeb Forsfjall) to high-level professional leagues at a young age.

On the blue line, Ryker Evans was an AHL All-Star in his rookie professional season. And, in the CHL, Lukas Dragicevic and Ty Nelson both ranked within the top 20 defensemen in even-strength primary points per game, while also showing the ability to play key power-play minutes.

Wright is likely to contribute this year or next. Francis has spoken highly of Evans and Kartye too, and it seems probable both will get an opportunity for a full-time role with the Kraken by the 2024-25 season at the latest. Players like Melanson, Nelson, Ottavainen, or Winterton could push for NHL time after that.

Seattle’s NHL roster is aging

At the NHL level, the Kraken have a veteran-heavy lineup. This is not surprising, of course. Since draft picks take time to develop, Seattle was constrained to build its initial teams by two main methods. First, the Kraken had the Expansion Draft, a process that exempted most young players. Second, Seattle had unrestricted free agency, where most players are only eligible for UFA status after they are 27 years old.

Fast forward two years and the Kraken roster is one of the oldest in the league. I calculated the average age of projected 2023-24 NHL rosters using the starters projected in depth chart tool on CapFriendly. The average age of the projected Kraken lineup is 28.30, which is tied with the New York Islanders and Minnesota Wild for the sixth-oldest lineup in the league.

Paired with what we know about how NHL players’ skills decline over time, the age of Seattle’s roster weighs heavily on my mind when considering whether a 2023-24 Kraken team that returns mostly the same lineup can improve from last year’s performance.

Individual players can skew averages, though, so I also looked at how many 30+-year-old players each team projected to carry on their 2023-24 rosters. All studies seem to agree that players peak in their 20’s. So age 30+ players—as a group, on average—can be expected to decline. (Beyond that, there is no magic to this cutoff I used beyond its roundness. Could the cutoff have been 29 or 31? Yes.)

By this measure, too, Seattle has an old roster. The Kraken are projected to carry 11 players at least 30 years of age, which is tied for second most in the league with the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals, and behind only the Pittsburgh Penguins.

As an aside, the Penguins stand out as an extreme outlier, with, by far, the oldest roster in the NHL. In fact, the difference in average age between the Penguins (30.91) and the second-oldest team, the Washington Capitals (29.00), is bigger than the difference between the Capitals and the 22nd-oldest team, the Winnipeg Jets (27.17). Pittsburgh also projects to carry four more age 30+ players than any other team.

Since no two players on a roster are equally valuable or relied upon, I also looked at (1) how many games those 30+-year-old players played in the 2022-23 season, (2) their average time on ice, and (3) how many goals they scored. If a team’s over-30 players are fourth-line forwards, backup goaltenders, or healthy scratches, there is less of a concern about age-related regression.

This analysis showed that the Kraken are heavily reliant on their older players. Seattle’s age 30+ players: (1) played 794 games in the 2022-23 season, second most in the league; (2) averaged 17:41 of ice time per game, tenth most in the league, and (3) scored 101 goals, eighth most in the league.

All of this suggests that the arc of the current NHL roster is likely to decline without changes to address age-related regression.

Seattle’s minimal contract commitments give the team flexibility

The Kraken have constructed their roster carefully, however, and find themselves in relatively strong position to solve for any age-related issues. Absent any other transactions this offseason, the Kraken will enter the season with more than $2 million in cap space—ample room to make any in-season moves.

Looking forward, Seattle’s veteran contracts all cycle out over the next four years. Setting aside entry-level contracts, the Kraken have fifteen NHL contracts covering the 2024-25 season, but that number drops down to seven in 2025-26, four in 2026-27, and none in 2027-28 and beyond.

Of course, it is desirable to lock in young talent on long-term deals, like New Jersey has done, for example. But Seattle has not yet had those options with early-prime players. (Beniers is the first player worthy of such a contract, and I expect Seattle to pursue it.)

Instead, Seattle has exercised admirable restraint in resisting maximum-term deals for older potential free agent targets (like Gabriel Landeskog at the Expansion Draft) or high uncertainty internal options (Vince Dunn).

Seattle’s future flexibility is even more pronounced when looking at the salary cap charges of the future contract years on the books.

This information on future contracts and cap charges was drawn from the active player database at CapFriendly.

Changes are on the horizon

I infer from the information above that the Kraken may be targeting a timeframe three-to-four years out—when the team is cycling in a large wave of young talent to replace the current veteran core—as an ideal window to take the “next step.” The Kraken’s veteran contracts will be off the books, and the team should have as much or more cap space than any competitor to target free agents to supplement a cheaper group of prime-aged players.

In the meantime, Seattle has a veteran-driven lineup that has proven capable of making the playoffs and making noise when it gets there. This is quite the trick.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.