In the third installment of this “becoming a playoff contender” series, we evaluate the Seattle Kraken offseason moves and determine what are the chances they make the playoffs. If you need a refresher, in Part 1, we determined that an NHL team will need a non-empty-net goal differential of minus five to have a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. In Part 2 of the series, we dug into the goal forecast of the current players on the roster to determine the Kraken would need to add 45.6 more goals this offseason.
Roster changes prior to free agency
The forecast from Part 2 was based on all rostered and restricted free agent players on the team at the time. A lot has changed since then so let’s evaluate the changes.
The first order of business was the NHL Entry Draft. As most of you know by now, Shane Wright fell to the Seattle Kraken in the fourth overall spot in the draft. Wright was one of the few players taken in the draft expected to play in the NHL this season. There is a chance Wright does not make the Kraken roster immediately, but we feel that is unlikely and therefore will be punching him into the scoring forecast.
The prior goal forecast was also done before the qualifying offer deadline for all pending restricted free agents. The Kraken ended up not qualifying Ryan Donato*, Daniel Sprong, Haydn Fleury, and Dennis Cholowski. We will come back to Donato in a second, but this impacted the forecasted numbers since Donato and Sprong were forecasting over 15 goals for next season.
The expected goals for Fleury and Cholowski also impacted the forecast, but we only projected three goals combined for both of them, so they did not have a material impact on the overall forecasted number. When we removed Donato, Sprong, Fleury, and Cholowski, the gap in goals to become a playoff contender became much bigger.
Uh oh. They were heading in the wrong direction.
Roster additions
In addition to Shane Wright, the Kraken would go on to add forwards André Burakovsky, Andrew Poturalski, and John Hayden plus defenseman Justin Schultz during the first week of free agency. For a while, it looked as if the Kraken were done with only a few goal-scoring players left available. Nine days after the free agency period opened, the Kraken landed Oliver Bjorkstrand in a steal of a trade for the Kraken. With Bjorkstrand and Burakovsky on the roster, things began to look better for the scoring capabilities of the Kraken for the 2022-23 season.
The team also eventually re-signed Donato two weeks after free agency opened and added another depth defenseman in Michal Kempny.
New forecast projections
With these roster additions, now is time to punch them into the forecast. First up, how do we forecast Shane Wright’s numbers this upcoming season? For an estimate on Wright, we isolated the forwards selected in the top five picks since 2015 that would go on to play more than 15 games in the NHL in the season immediately after their draft season.
The average goals scored for that cohort of players was 16.8 in their first season. To be slightly more conservative, we are going to lower Wright’s forecasted goal totals to 14.8 for 2022-23. We recognize this is a very simple methodology but feel it is a reasonable number of goals to expect of Wright.
Plugging in the other player additions is relatively easy since it is based on their 2021-22 adjusted goals per game times the number of games we forecast those players to play in the 2022-23 season.
We also recognize there are some tweaks we could make to individual players’ expected performances next season. We are intentionally not making any individual adjustments because we think some players will exceed the forecast while others will be below the forecast. At the end of the season, they will even themselves out. When we put it all together, here is the current forecast for adjusted goal differential.
Playoff chances?
After all the changes and modifications to the goal scoring forecast, we are estimating the Kraken will have a -7.7 adjusted goal differential. If that forecast is realized, the Kraken should stick around the playoff hunt and would have a decent shot at making it to the postseason.
Based on the chart above, should the Kraken have a goal differential of minus seven, this gives them a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs.
What could go right and what could go wrong?
Again, we recognize this is an over-simplified forecast model, but there were significantly more complicated models that were way off last season.
Here are a few things that could go wrong for the Kraken:
The goalie tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Martin Jones does not improve and ends up last in team goaltending again.
Injuries. Brandon Tanev and Jaden Schwartz had significant reductions in games played last season due to injuries. The injury bug will come back in 2022-23, but who will it hit and how hard? Let’s just hope it doesn’t come for one of the goal scorers.
Burakovsky’s goal scoring rate decreases when playing for the less-talented Seattle Kraken compared to last year’s Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche.
There are also things that could go right for the Kraken in 2022-23.
Goaltending is at or above league average. This could swing an additional 30 goals in the goal differential category.
Joonas Donskoi returns to form. 2021-22 was a brutal season for Donskoi, where his shooting percentage was a dismal 2.2 percent. If he gets back to his career average over 10 percent, he could be looking at a 15-to-20 goal season.
Shane Wright exceeds expectations with a 25-plus-goal season. Right now, we are conservatively estimating just under 15 goals for Wright. It is a possibility that he exceeds that number in his rookie campaign.
Lowering playoff expectations
It is rare for a team to bounce back from a 60-point season and vault themselves into a playoff spot. Since the 2000-01 season, only five teams qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs the season after posting 70 points or fewer. So maybe we should temper the expectations a bit as this team has several young pieces with new players that might not be totally comfortable playing with each other yet. With that said, playing meaningful games in March, even with an outside chance of making the playoffs, should be considered a success for 2022-23.
With the signing of John Klingberg last Friday, we can start to do some analysis of the free agency period this offseason. There are still plenty of NHL players out there, but they will trickle in until late September, and it feels possible Nazem Kadri will wait to “officially” sign with the New York Islanders until the night before the Islanders kick off their training camp. Still, there’s enough data now to take a look at how this free agency period stacks up to prior seasons.
Total dollars committed in NHL free agency
Here is a look at total dollars committed to one-way free agent deals through day 20 of the free agency window. This includes restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents but does not include extension signings for players that were already under contract for 2022-23.
Through Monday, spending is down 18 percent at this point in the free agency window compared to last year but up significantly compared to 2020. This change is being driven by a reduction in total volume of signings. Last year at this point in free agency, 156 players had signed new contracts compared to just 125 through Monday.
Matthew Tkachuk ($76M), Johnny Gaudreau ($68M), and Josh Norris ($44M) are the big-ticket free agents this year compared to last year’s big free agency signings, Dougie Hamilton ($63M), Zach Werenski ($58M), and Adam Pelech ($46M).
Here is a look at the cumulated total of commitments by day of free agency.
It is challenging to determine what is driving the drop in signings other than teams are feeling the cap crunch right now and hoping to find bargains by waiting it out.
AAV also slightly down
The Average Annual Value, often referred to as AAV or salary cap hit, is down slightly compared to last year. Even though there are still some signings to be made between now and training camp in September, this number should stay in line with the current $2.2 million average AAV.
NHL free agency spend by team
When you break it down by team, the list at the top is predictable and obvious, based on the deals getting announced over the last few weeks.
Columbus went big with Johnny Gaudreau at $68 million, but they also re-signed Patrik Laine to a contract worth a total value of $35 million. Some people might be surprised to see Calgary in the top three, but remember that Matthew Tkachuk was a “sign-and-trade” to the Florida Panthers.
A couple other items of note:
Calgary still has two restricted free agents that have elected salary arbitration hearings in Andrew Mangiapane and Oliver Kylington. Both players are due significant pay increases that could bump Calgary over the Senators with the second-most commitments this free agent period.
As mentioned above, it is possible that Lou Lamoriello and the New York Islanders have signed several free agents but will not announce them until September.
Minnesota’s only pending restricted free agent, Kevin Fiala, was traded to the Los Angeles Kings before the free agency period started. It is entirely possible that they do not sign anyone during the free agency period.
Here is a look at how teams’ spending commitments compare to last year.
Kraken free agency spend details
During free agency last year, the Kraken were a brand-new franchise and theoretically had a lot more flexibility. This season, they had cap space but leveraged that space with the Oliver Bjorkstrand trade and signings of Andre Burakovsky, Martin Jones, and Justin Schultz. Here is the detail behind the Kraken free agency spending.
League assessment
The pandemic-impacted flat salary cap continues to impact free agency signings. After an increase in AAV from 2017 to 2019, average AAV in 2022 has not reached pre-pandemic levels as teams continue to get closer and sometimes over the salary cap. The cap will eventually increase, but in the meantime, there are several players that are seeing their earning power diminished in critical times in their respective careers.
We’re back for Weekly One-Timers! It’s been a couple weeks since we’ve done this, so we recognize this has evolved into more “Occasional One-Timers,” but “Occasional One-Timers” simply doesn’t have the same ring to it. So, take what you can get on this front and give nothing back.
The Kraken had a busy week last week that saw them trade for Oliver Bjorkstrand, sign free agent Michal Kempny, and re-sign Morgan Geekie and Ryan Donato. Things were much quieter in the last four days, though, and we’re now into what is typically the slowest hockey news month. Between it being August and the fact that Seattle is getting close to the salary cap, we have a hunch the team could be largely closing down shop for the next few weeks.
Nonetheless, there was still some news around the hockey world in recent days, so we’ll tackle that in this edition of Occasional Weekly One-Timers.
Kraken have a new ECHL affiliate
The Kansas City Mavericks announced they are the new ECHL affiliate of the Seattle Kraken, replacing the Allen Americans after just one season of partnership.
— Kansas City Mavericks (@kc_mavericks) July 28, 2022
For those unfamiliar, the ECHL is one step below the AHL, and players can shuttle between the two leagues if/when the Kraken organization needs a spot for minor-league players who aren’t getting ice time with the Coachella Valley Firebirds. It’s rare that players who play in the ECHL ultimately make it to the NHL, but it is not unheard of. It’s an especially useful league for developing goalies, as there are so few opportunities for young pro netminders to get playing time.
John Klingberg signs with Ducks
Entering last week, there were two big free-agent dominoes that had not yet fallen. One of those two did find a landing spot, at least for (most of) this upcoming season. Right-shot offensive defenseman John Klingberg signed with the Anaheim Ducks for one season at $7 million. The deal came just days after Klingberg fired his longtime agent, Peter Wallen, and replaced him with Newport Sports Management. The firing indicated that Klingberg wasn’t exactly enamored by how things had gone for him in free agency, and it’s no surprise that he found a contract just a couple days later.
We thought there was a fit for Klingberg in Seattle, especially considering the team was looking to upgrade offensively and was thin on the right side of its blue line. According to Elliotte Friedman, Seattle did have discussions with Klingberg’s agent early in free agency but did not see eye-to-eye on term and/or AAV.
As things shook out for the Kraken this offseason, it became clear that general manager Ron Francis was more interested in improving the team’s forward corps by adding scorers in the $5-million range. So, in came Bjorkstrand and Andre Burakovsky. Francis did sign a more budget-friendly, right-shot puck mover in Justin Schultz at the beginning of free agency. In retrospect that probably signaled the end of the road for “Klingberg to Seattle” clamorers.
Klingberg landing in Anaheim on a one-year deal is a surprise. Viewed as one of the top free agents on the market, we figured the 29-year-old Swede would land a seven- or eight-year mega deal. But those offers either never materialized or Klingberg’s camp misplayed the market.
For the Ducks, adding Klingberg helps the team get above the salary cap floor. On the ice his signing does make Anaheim better this year, and comes on the heels of the offseason additions of Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano. The Ducks showed early season promise in 2021-22, as young players like Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras broke out. We don’t expect them to really be contenders, but this signing gives them a fighting chance and could be intended as a signal to the team that new GM Pat Verbeek wants to start contending soon. It also gives Verbeek a nice chip at the trade deadline if Anaheim isn’t in the playoff hunt.
Nazem Kadri to the Islanders?
With Klingberg finally signed, the lone remaining big domino is Nazem Kadri. But rumors of Kadri landing with the New York Islanders are certainly swirling and picked up steam with this tweet from independent scout Mark Seidel.
Just got off the phone with a guy that knows & I think that Nazem Kadri is done to @NYIslanders They have to clear out some cap room & then it’ll be announced. I’m FAR from an Insider but I’m very confident that it’s done. Great signing by NYI & Nazem Kadri deserves every penny.
— North American Central Scouting Independent Bureau (@MarkSeidel) July 31, 2022
Kadri is coming off a career year and played a key role for the Cup-winning Colorado Avalanche. The veteran center scored 87 points in 71 regular-season games for the Avs and added 15 more points in 16 playoff games.
The delayed announcement of Kadri’s destination would align with the Islanders’ recent history of waiting until the last minute to share news of their offseason signings. Keeping such announcements hidden until September gives general manager Lou Lamoriello more leverage in offseason trade talks, as opposing teams don’t actually know where New York’s cap situation stands.
David Quinn hired by Sharks
New Sharks general manager Mike Grier found his guy. Former Rangers and Boston University Terriers head coach David Quinn was named the next bench boss for San Jose, making him the 11th coach in franchise history. In 208 games with the Rangers, Quinn went 96-87-25.
The Sharks could be quite bad this season, so Quinn has his work cut out for him. After going 32-37-13 in 2021-22, San Jose traded away first-pair stalwart blueliner Brent Burns and did not make any real upgrades this offseason.
Hlinka Gretzky Cup underway
Just when you thought hockey had officially entered the quiet period of the offseason, the Hlinka Gretzky Cup dropped the puck over the weekend. The tournament is a key piece of the annual scouting puzzle for NHL teams, featuring the world’s best under-18-year-old prospects. It plays a big role in determining draft stock for participants as they enter their respective draft seasons.
Team USA got off to a hot start Sunday with a 8-1 drubbing of Germany, and will play again Monday against Finland. Canada barely squeaked out a 14-0 victory over Switzerland in its opener.
Sounding as much as we possibly can like Steve Van Zandt’s character, Silvio Dante, from The Sopranos: “Just when you think he’s out… They pull him… back in!” Yes, Kraken general manager Ron Francis has brought back fan favorite, Ryan Donato, on a one-year deal worth $1.2 million.
We truly thought Donato—scorer of the first goal in franchise history—had reached the end of his road with the Kraken when the team opted against tendering him a qualifying offer by the July 11 deadline. That meant Donato became an unrestricted free agent two days later. Such a move very typically means a team does not want a player back.
On that Wednesday, Francis addressed the media after the team signed Andre Burakovsky, Justin Schultz, Martin Jones, and a whole slew of minor leaguers. He was asked what led to the decision not to qualify Donato and said frankly that the team just didn’t want to risk going to arbitration with Donato. The concern was that Donato could have been awarded a contract that didn’t fit with the team’s plans for managing the salary cap. But Francis also left the door open to a return to Seattle for the 26-year-old winger. “We certainly like the player, and we’ll continue to have discussions there,” Francis said that day. “I don’t know where it goes, but that was the reason why we made that decision [not to qualify him].”
In the end, Donato returned to the club for at least one more season on a very fair deal for both sides. Via press release, Francis said, “Ryan elevated his game last season and we’re happy to have him return to the Kraken. He completed a career year and will hopefully eclipse that in 2022-23.”
Ryan Donato by the numbers
When Donato signed with Seattle for $750,000 just prior to the opening of last season’s training camp, he was joining his fourth NHL team in just his fifth season in the league. Donato had been traded from Minnesota to San Jose following the 2019-20 season, and then San Jose declined to tender him a qualifying offer after the 2020-21 season. Sound familiar?
Donato had his best pro season with Seattle in 2021-22, scoring 16 goals and 15 assists in 74 games. The goal and assist totals were both career highs. And his production was memorable too. He got the Kraken on the board for the first time ever by scoring a rebound goal against the Vegas Golden Knights in the team’s inaugural game.
When Seattle finally played its home opener at Climate Pledge Arena late in October, Donato was a healthy scratch, making us wonder at the time how much of a role he would play as the season wore on. But Donato took advantage of every opportunity. He did everything that was asked of him by coach Dave Hakstol and played seemingly every forward role at some point in the campaign, even getting time on both the penalty kill and power play.
Kraken approaching salary cap
Donato’s signing means the Kraken are officially a salary cap team. There are some pieces that need shuffling around, but based on CapFriendly’s projections, Seattle now figures to have under $2 million in space. The team can temporarily go over the cap by $3.5 million if needed by placing goaltender Chris Driedger, who is recovering from ACL surgery, on long-term injured reserve.
What this all means is that barring any player-for-player trades prior to the opening of the season, we are closing in on how Seattle’s roster will look.
How Ryan Donato fits with the Kraken
Donato showed last season that he really can play anywhere in the lineup. He’s a useful player to have at the team’s disposal, because as forwards got injured or offloaded via trades in 2021-22, Donato was able to slide into top-six roles and perform admirably.
We like him in a third- or fourth-line role, where he can still chip in offensively while playing with guys like Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev, Karson Kuhlman, and others who can bring energy and hard-nosed forechecking. Donato can provide a dose of skill and finishing touch with players like that, making Seattle’s bottom six more formidable.
Like we did with Oliver Bjorkstrand last week, we’ve slotted Donato back into the Kraken lineup, using JFreshHockey’s roster building tool. Try not to get too hung up on the line combinations here, but with this group of players, Seattle now projects for 95 standings points.
Those 95 points would have left the Kraken four points shy of the playoffs in 2021-22, but the tricky piece here is that Shane Wright and Matty Beniers both lack sufficient statistical data for this tool, so they are each factored in as replacement-level players. With this in mind, it is reasonable to project the Kraken at least a few points higher than the 95 we see here.
We’re happy for Donato. He was great to cover last season, and he hasn’t had the easiest ride through his NHL career. This is a nice raise for a guy that proved he belonged with the Kraken.
On Sunday afternoon, the Seattle Kraken agreed to terms with two players on one-year deals: 24-year-old forward Morgan Geekie and 31-year-old defenseman Michal Kempny. Let’s dive into our first reactions on the players, the contracts, and projected roles for the 2022-23 season.
The Kraken re-sign forward Morgan Geekie to a one-year deal
The more notable of the two Kraken signings on Sunday, restricted free agent Morgan Geekie agreed to a one-year, $1.4 million contract. The deal is a “one-way” contract, meaning that Geekie is guaranteed to earn that sum even if he spends time in the AHL this year.
An original Kraken re-ups with the team
Geekie spent the entire 2021-22 season with Seattle. He scored seven goals and recorded 15 assists in 73 games played.
The right-shot forward most frequently centered the team’s fourth line. When he played higher in the lineup, he would at times shift out to right wing. Geekie averaged just 11:10 of even-strength ice time per game, which is the lowest figure in the Kraken’s forward group for any player who appeared in more than ten games. He regularly appeared on Seattle’s second power play unit, averaging another 1:21 in ice time per game on the man advantage. He did not factor into the penalty killing units.
Geekie played last season on a one-year, $750,000 contract. He had signed that deal as a restricted free agent with the Carolina Hurricanes just a few days before the July 21, 2021, Expansion Draft. At the time he was coming off a 2019-20 season that saw him in and out of the Carolina lineup and registering just nine points in 36 games.
Seattle’s decision to take Geekie from the Hurricanes in the Expansion Draft came as a surprise to most prognosticators who had linked the Kraken to defenseman Jake Bean. Among Carolina’s exposed forwards, Nino Niederreiter, an established-but-more-expensive top-six forward, was more commonly referenced as an option.
Instead, Ron Francis tabbed the player he had previously selected with a 2017 third-round pick when he was general manager of the Hurricanes. Clearly, the team saw something in Geekie last summer. By its actions on Sunday, the team continues to project confidence in the player today, rewarding him with a $650,000 raise over his previous year’s salary.
“Morgan set several career highs last season and we’re happy to re-sign him,” said Kraken general manager Ron Francis via press release. “He took an important step forward last year and we’re looking forward to him continuing his growth with the Kraken.”
Following this one-year deal, Geekie will again be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent next summer. The Kraken retain the option to tender Geekie as a restricted free agent through the 2025-26 season.
Morgan Geekie brings an intriguing tool kit
Geekie has a profile that an NHL front office might design in a lab. He brings a coveted right shot and size (6-foot-2) to the center position. He delivers value in the face-off circle (he won 53 percent of his draws in 2021-22) and frequently wins on the forecheck, recovering possession for his team in the corners.
Beyond those traits, Geekie has shown a skill-oriented offensive game. He frequently demonstrates the vision and touch to deliver accurate passes that set up his teammates for scoring chances. And his shot has shown flashes of brilliance.
Put it all together at 24 years old, and this sounds like a player any team should want in their lineup for the next decade.
The problem is that Geekie’s obvious tools have not yet coalesced into a top-nine forward in the NHL, even on a Kraken team that struggled to generate offense in 2021-22. Indeed, it seems like weeks can go by without any notable contribution from Seattle’s No. 67. To be fair, he is on the ice less than most.
Why, then, did Geekie secure such a large raise off his 2020-21 salary?
The answer begins with leverage. For the first time, Geekie was eligible for salary arbitration this offseason. This means that if he and the team could not agree to terms, Geekie had the right to ask a third-party arbitrator to step in and decide the dollar value of the deal. Ultimately, Geekie exercised this right, and a hearing had been set for August 11, but the new deal cancels that hearing. This leverage factors into Geekie’s increased compensation.
Even so, how does Geekie’s deal stack up against comparable arbitration-eligible players? The answer is: quite favorably for the player.
I utilized an approach similar to my analysis of Jared McCann’s contract. I used CapFriendly to gather historical contract information for comparable arbitration-eligible restricted free agents who signed one-year contracts. I then adjusted those contract values into 2022 cap dollars. (Check out my piece on Jared McCann for a more thorough explanation on my method.)
As an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, Geekie secured a one-year, $1.4 million contract on a resume of 111 games played and 35 scoring points. The most recent comparable, Washington’s own Dylan Gambrell, secured a one-year, $1.1 million AAV with the Sharks last offseason on the strength of 110 games played and 23 points. Geekie’s point production has been almost 50 percent stronger on a point-per-game basis, though Gambrell’s defensive game may be better suited to a long-term fourth-line role.
The other recent and close statistical comparables also came in with contracts lower than Geekie. Charles Hudon was awarded $800,000 ($808,500 on a cap-adjusted basis) at an arbitration hearing in 2019 based on 110 games played and 39 points. Chandler Stephenson likewise went to arbitration in 2019 and was awarded a contract worth $1.05 million ($1.062 million on a cap-adjusted basis) with a record of 144 games played and 29 points. Finally, Johan Larsson agreed to a one-year contract in 2016 worth $950,000 ($1.072 million on a cap-adjusted basis) based on 142 games played and 37 points.
All told, from Geekie’s perspective, a $1.4 million contract is a strong result. Evolving Hockey predicted that if Geekie signed a one-year contract it would be worth $941,400 AAV. The comparable contracts described above indicate that an arbitration award for Geekie may have projected into the $1 million – $1.125 million AAV range, with the chance of coming in lower than that, but little precedent for a higher result.
Thinking from the team’s perspective, it is tempting to dismiss a $300,000 “overpay”—if that’s what it is—as inconsequential in comparison with some of the bigger salary cap hits on the roster. But with the Kraken close to the cap now, every dollar is meaningful, and, as described further below, the implications for future contract negotiations could be significant. On the other hand, if Geekie breaks out as a top-nine player, this contract will be worth every dime.
The contract sets up a make-or-break year in Seattle for Geekie
Geekie projects to again start as the center on the fourth line, though he’ll face camp competition from John Hayden and Andrew Poturalski. Geekie’s avenue to moving higher in the lineup is likely on the right side where only Jordan Eberle and Oliver Bjorkstrand necessarily fall ahead of him. (Andre Burakovsky can line up on the right wing or the left wing.)
Looking forward to next summer, the Kraken will be faced with the decision of whether to make Geekie a $1.4 million qualifying offer, given the arbitration risk that could lead to a significantly higher salary. If Geekie becomes a top-nine forward, this is a price the Kraken—or another team—would happily pay. But, absent a surge in Geekie’s performance, the qualifying offer could be deemed too costly and cause the team to non-tender the forward, similar to the situation with Ryan Donato this year.
All of this sets up the most important season of Geekie’s NHL career. He has an opportunity, with a team that believes in him, to convert his skills into production. If he cannot, he may find himself on the open market next summer waiting for a team willing to “take a flyer” on a skilled player in his mid-20’s who hasn’t broken through.
The Kraken sign unrestricted free agent defenseman Michal Kempny
Later on Sunday the team also signed Michal Kempny, a 31-year-old left-shot defenseman, to a one-year, one-way, $750,000 contract. The Czech blueliner has several years of NHL experience, breaking into the league with the Chicago Blackhawks during the 2016-17 season and then logging time with the Washington Capitals over the last five seasons.
Kempny won the Stanley Cup with Washington in 2017-18, then notched a career-high 25 points in 2018-19 before tearing his left hamstring at the end of that season. He rehabbed and followed that up with 18 points in the shortened 2019-20 season. Since then, Kempny has missed more time with more major injuries, also to his left leg, and has not been able to re-establish himself as a blue line fixture in the NHL. He missed almost all of the 2020-21 season, first recovering from a torn achilles and then suffering an MCL sprain in a freak accident in which a member of the ice crew fell on him during a rehab stint in Hershey in the AHL. He was able to get back on the ice last year, but split time between the Capitals and the Hershey Bears, registering minimal offensive production.
Following the departures of Mark Giordano and Haydn Fleury, Seattle’s left defense depth chart looks like this: Jamie Oleksiak, Vince Dunn, Carson Soucy, Michal Kempny, Ryker Evans, Gustav Olofsson, Peetro Seppala.
Kempny projects as a depth player who would be most useful to the Seattle Kraken as injury insurance in Coachella Valley. If he proves he is fully healthy, it is not out of the question that he could spend significant time with Seattle, though, perhaps as the seventh defenseman on the roster.
This looks like a shrewd, low-risk bet on a player that was productive when he was healthy.
The Seattle Kraken have signed Michal Kempny to a one-year, $750K deal. Actually, we really like this signing! There were only a few good defensemen on the FA market and Kempny was one of them in our eyes. Low risk-high reward for Seattle. But there is a big question of course… pic.twitter.com/sIIgXYe8BF
We knew it. We just knew the Kraken weren’t done making moves this offseason, and they showed on Friday that they were willing to use up most of their remaining $9+ million in cap space to make themselves better. The team announced that it had acquired 27-year-old Danish winger Oliver Bjorkstrand from the Columbus Blue Jackets for third- and fourth-round draft picks in 2023.
Each of the two picks given up had been acquired by Seattle in previous trades with Calgary and Winnipeg, and the Kraken did not have to sacrifice any of their growing prospect pool. Those picks were draft capital well spent, as the team landed a true top-six talent for a bargain price.
Interestingly, Bjorkstrand was a third-round pick himself, back in 2013, but has vastly exceeded the expectations that typically come with being the No. 89 overall pick. “We’re excited to welcome Oliver to our organization,” general manager Ron Francis said via press release. “His creativity and hockey sense will be good additions to our forward group.”
The Kraken got a steal here.
Oliver Bjorkstrand by the numbers
Bjorkstrand is coming off a career year in Columbus, in which he scored 28 goals and 29 assists in 80 regular-season games. Last season wasn’t a flash in the pan, either, as he has eclipsed the 20-goal mark three times in the last four campaigns. In 2019-20, Bjorkstrand potted 21 goals in just 49 games. So, there is a real track record there of offensive contributions by a player who simply demanded playing time in Columbus’ top six.
Advanced analytics folks are high on Bjorkstrand as well, with Top Down Hockey giving him a projected wins above replacement rating of 92 percent.
Oliver Bjorkstrand, traded to SEA, is a play-driving two-way scorer who's one of those players who's good at pretty much everything. An excellent forechecker and especially good at creating shots. #SeaKrakenpic.twitter.com/NUVuR3RUBB
Evolving Hockey gave Bjorkstrand a 90 overall rating, placing him in the 82nd and 89th percentiles respectively for offense and defense. They also said this:
Seattle adding Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand after getting Shane Wright at fourth overall… really having a fantastic offseason
The Blue Jackets shocked the hockey world when they came out of nowhere and signed Johnny Gaudreau to a seven-year deal at a $9.75 million cap hit. They followed that up by signing Patrik Laine to a four-year extension at a $8.7 million cap hit, and suddenly Columbus was projecting to be way over the salary cap.
So, to free space, they moved Bjorkstrand. One team’s cap crunch is another team’s treasure (we’re pretty sure that’s how the saying goes).
Bjorkstrand signed an extension with Columbus in January of 2021. The deal runs through the 2025-26 season at a very fair annual cap hit of $5.4 million. This means the Kraken will project to have about $3.6 million in cap space left, but some of that will need to go to restricted free agent Morgan Geekie, who filed for arbitration earlier in the week. If Seattle ends up going over the cap, they have the option of placing Chris Driedger on long-term injured reserve, which temporarily would give them $3.5 million in additional space.
How does Bjorkstrand fit in with the Kraken?
On our latest Sound Of Hockey Podcast episode, we mentioned we thought there was still a glaring hole in Seattle’s forward lineup. 24 hours later, that is no longer the case, as the team’s roster suddenly looks mostly set and significantly more like a contender than it did earlier in the week.
Using JFresh’s roster builder tool, we slotted Bjorkstrand into a second-line role with Andre Burakovsky and Alex Wennberg. The tool predicted 94 standings points for the Kraken in 2022-23, but lacking sufficient data on Matty Beniers, the tool only allows us to insert him as a replacement-level player. We believe Beniers will be far above a replacement-level player. Plus, Shane Wright is not even factored in here.
We were concerned that Seattle had only marginally improved in free agency, but now that the team has layered in a trade acquisition of Bjorkstrand, a guy who can play at both ends of the ice and score at even strength and on the power play, the Kraken could be a playoff contender after all. We still think there is an upgrade that could be made at right defense, but unless that comes by way of a dollar-for-dollar trade, such an addition would put the Kraken into a cap crunch of their own.
It has been a very busy week around the hockey world and for the Seattle Kraken. Now that the dust has settled, John, Andy, and Darren have a lot to recap and consider, and they do just that on this week’s episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast.
The guys start with a breakdown of Seattle’s biggest free agent signings and give their thoughts on what the team did as a whole. They also discuss Ron Francis’s closing press conference on free agency day and the reports that Eddie Olczyk could be joining the Kraken organization.
After lots of Kraken talk, the guys shift their attention to the NHL as a whole, giving time to the Matthew Tkachuk situation in Calgary and Johnny Gaudreau’s departure from that team. They also do an “Interesting or Carry On” for free-agent signings and trades throughout the league.
They close the show with Weekly One-Timers and Tweets of the Week.
Along with Kraken fans, we here at Sound Of Hockey continue to wait on any late-breaking news regarding NHL-level roster moves. We will cover it here whenever any additional transactions are announced.
In the meantime, however, we wanted to revisit Seattle’s crucial 2022 NHL Draft one more time. Last week I wrote about the players drafted by the Kraken. Today, I will offer some perspective that compares Seattle’s draft class with the rest of the league.
What are public draft analysts and scouting services saying about the Kraken’s draft picks? Looking at history, what can we expect from this class? And how do Seattle’s assembled prospects project relative to the field? We will consider these questions and more, and also offer some takeaways pertaining to other teams along the way.
We should note that it is wise to be guarded in the immediate aftermath of a draft. We do not even know what Shane Wright will be in the NHL, must less Seattle’s later picks. But, generally speaking, how does Seattle’s group project? Let’s dive in.
The Kraken accumulated a deep class of high-end talent
In case you missed it, before the draft, we gathered rankings from 19 public draft analysts and scouting services and developed a composite draft ranking: The Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Seattle was the only team to select five players within the top-50 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Buffalo and Montreal selected four such players each, and no other team drafted more than three. With long odds facing any prospect outside the top half of the first round, accumulating this depth of highly ranked prospects in a single draft is impressive. For context, nine teams left the draft with no players ranked within the top 50.
Public draft analysts praised Seattle’s work
Public analysts were generally complimentary of Seattle’s draft, frequently referencing it among the strongest draft classes assembled:
Chris Peters of Flo Hockey (link): Seattle Kraken: A
Corey Pronman of The Athletic (link): Seattle Kraken: A
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (link): Seattle Kraken: “No. 2 winner” of day one; “No. 1 winner” of day two
Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski of ESPN (link): Seattle Kraken: “Winner”
Peter Baracchini of The Hockey Writers (link): Seattle Kraken: “Winner”
Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News (link): Seattle Kraken: “perfect draft”
Mark Schieg of The Hockey Writers (link): Seattle Kraken: “Winner”
Mike Morreale of NHL.com (link): Seattle Kraken: Best draft (discussion starts at 25:00)
Projecting future contributions from Seattle’s draft class
Byron Bader of Hockey Prospecting has studied the likelihood of a player becoming a contributor at the NHL level based on draft position. He researched two thresholds: (1) the likelihood of being a “star” performer who produces at a high-end, point-per-game threshold and (2) the likelihood of being an “NHL” player, which he defines as playing at least 200 games in the NHL.
I like this approach to interpreting the projected impact of a draft class because it is less abstract than Wins Above Replacement (WAR) or similar metrics. As Josh Horton’s investigation demonstrated historically, even the largest draft classes can be counted as a success if they produce just a few NHL-level performers. Bader’s work quantifies those probabilities and helps us make projections.
Bader delivered his results in tiers. For example, he reported that a second-round pick has a 29.5 percent chance of becoming an NHL player and a 2.4 percent chance of becoming a star. Yet, we also know from other studies that high-second-round picks yield significantly more value than late-second-round picks, as one might expect.
Bader’s public findings are also a bit quirky in a few areas. For example, his results suggest a higher likelihood of finding a star performer in the late-first round than in the mid-first round. This is very likely an issue with small sample size.
For these reasons, I reverse engineered a smoothed model from his public findings that projects “likelihood” of being a star performer or NHLer based on draft position. Graphically, the models look like this:
I applied this model to the picks in the 2022 NHL Draft and created a projection of how many NHL lineup players and star performers each team can expect from its draft class.
(Note that some scouts have suggested this was a mediocre draft class. If so, all of the probabilities listed above could be downgraded, but the expectations of each team relative to the others should remain consistent.)
Based on pick position alone, the Kraken project to generate the fourth-most NHL players from the their draft class, with approximately three NHL regulars being an expected outcome. Only the Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, and Buffalo Sabres project to generate more such players.
When it comes to probable star power, again, the Kraken have the fourth-best odds of turning up a star player based on Bader’s model. In this measure, they rank behind only the Montreal Canadiens, Arizona Coyotes, and New Jersey Devils.
This should serve as something of a reality check on our expectations. A player picked at No. 4 overall is not a certainty to be a high-end performer. If Shane Wright becomes a 65-to-70-point producer on an annual basis, the Kraken will have out-performed their “star” expectations in this draft, even before considering the rest of this class.
Projecting future contributions using the Sound Of Hockey Big Board
The expectations set forth above assume historical average draft performance at each draft position. The results do not tell us anything about whether a draft class could be expected to over-perform or under-perform its draft position.
In an effort to gain some perspective on this question, I also applied Bader’s work to the players drafted in the 2022 NHL Draft based on their Big Board rank, rather than draft order. In other words, I engaged in a thought experiment: What if the Sound Of Hockey Big Board represented the “correct” order in which players would have ideally been drafted? In that scenario, the first player on the Big Board would be ascribed the highest likelihood of becoming a star or NHL player under Bader’s analysis, and so forth down the line.
To be clear, this is not how Bader’s work was intended to be used. This alternative view is simply meant to give some perspective on how each draft class could expect to turn out if the 19 public scouting services we compiled were “right” about the proper ordering of this class.
By this metric, the Seattle Kraken fare even better relative to the competition, projecting to produce both the most NHL lineup regulars and star performers from this draft.
In terms of raw figures, the Kraken project to generate slightly fewer lineup regulars than expected based on their draft position alone (3.03). This is due in large part to Seattle “reaching” far down the Big Board to draft goalie Niklas Kokko at No. 58. And, while the Kraken are No. 1 overall, Montreal, Buffalo, Arizona, and Chicago all closely trail Seattle, each projecting to produce just under three NHLers.
The Kraken take by far the biggest leap up in terms of likelihood of generating a star player, however. This is largely due to the fact that Seattle procured the No. 1 overall player on the Big Board, Shane Wright, at the fourth pick. Conversely, Montreal and New Jersey tumble down in their “star” probabilities because, in the eyes of the Big Board, those teams reached for Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec, respectively.
Other draft classes stood out, for better or worse
The Carolina Hurricanes project to exceed draft expectations because they employed a very specific strategy. The Big Board study suggests that the Carolina Hurricanes produced the most NHL-level talent relative to the team’s draft capital. Carolina turned picks projected to generate the 20th-most value in the league and procured the 12th-most value according to the Big Board. How did Carolina accomplish this? The strategy was clear: target Russian players that other teams were reticent to select. Of course, it remains to be seen if global events create a long-term impediment to those players joining the NHL. But “on paper,” the draft looks good.
The Minnesota Wild had a good draft too. The Wild also drafted very well based on the Big Board, projecting to have acquired the sixth-most lineup regulars despite draft capital worth only the ninth-most in the league. Minnesota selected Liam Ohgren (No. 17 on the Big Board) at No. 19 overall and then followed that up with Russian Danila Yurov (No. 12 on the Big Board) at No. 24 overall. Couple those two early value picks with a late value pick of Servac Petrovsky (No. 106 on the Big Board) at No. 185 overall and the Wild could very well look back on this draft fondly.
The Detroit Red Wings characteristically underperformed according to public draft boards. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Big Board was not a fan of Detroit’s draft. Steve Yzerman-managed teams have notoriously veered away from consensus in their draft decision making, yet they still seem to uncover stars (remember, Detroit went “off the board” with the No. 6 pick in 2019 and selected now-rising-superstar Moritz Seider). Detroit utilized the eighth-most valuable draft capital, but produced just the 16th-most value according to the Big Board.
The Chicago Blackhawks may have also left value on the table. To add insult to the injury that has been Chicago’s NHL-level offseason moves, the Big Board did not like Chicago’s draft either, relative to the the draft capital utilized. According to the Big Board, Chicago reached on every single one of its picks except for its second first-round pick Frank Nazar. For similar reasons, the Big Board downgrades the Arizona Coyotes’ draft too.
Takeaways from Seattle’s draft
The Kraken had a productive draft. Needing to build out the team’s prospect pool, volume was a focus: the team made 11 draft picks overall. But the Kraken did not sacrifice high-end quality either, generally winning rave reviews from draft analysts for their ability to find highly ranked prospects with their six picks in the top 68.
According to Hockey Prospecting’s historical work, Seattle fans can reasonably expect three-or-more of the team’s picks to emerge as NHL regulars down the road, with a 50-50 chance that one of those regulars develops into a star player.
If the Big Board is to be believed, Seattle’s draft may over-perform even those lofty expectations. This Kraken class may project as the best in the NHL, and the team’s chances of finding a star player could rate significantly higher than expected based on draft pick value alone.
Now we wait and watch. With rookie development camp in the rearview mirror, preseason training camp will be our next opportunity to check in on the development of this class.
Who said hockey season was over?! What a wild and crazy week this has been for Kraken fans, who have been on quite the roller coaster ride.
After watching Seattle crush it in last week’s NHL Entry Draft, they got to see the team’s future take the ice at Kraken Community Iceplex for the first time at this week’s development camp, then sit on pins and needles as the team somewhat cautiously dipped its toe into free agency.
It hasn’t quite been the headlong dive into free agency that we expected, but we have some theories on that, which you’ll read about in this edition of Weekly One-Timers.
Seattle Kraken development camp takeaways
Matty Beniers dominates
Development camp was an interesting experience. We got our first look at all the players selected by Seattle in the draft in Montreal, plus some young players that were selected and/or signed last year.
Predictably, Matty Beniers (who showed up remarkably tan, by the way) was the star of the show and dominated the three-on-three scrimmage tournament on Wednesday. He looked like a man amongst boys and seemed to have the puck on a string, making confident and sometimes borderline cheeky moves against his fellow youth.
While we’re still bracing for an adjustment period from the 19-year-old center, Beniers demonstrated again that he is a cornerstone for this franchise for many years to come.
Matty Beniers was outstanding in Wednesday’s scrimmage at Kraken development camp. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Wright debuts, signs contract
Speaking of cornerstone centers, No. 4 overall pick Shane Wright made his first appearance in Seattle. His best play of the three-on-three tournament came toward the end of the last game, when he fired a perfect 100-foot pass through the neutral zone right onto the tape of a breaking Luke Henman. Henman went in alone and scored, helping lead the light blue team to a tournament championship.
Throughout the camp, Wright looked as advertised — strong, swift on his skates, and frankly ready for NHL competition. At the close of the three-on-three scrimmage, general manager Ron Francis came onto the ice and announced to the crowd in attendance that Wright was going to sign his entry-level contract right then and there. It was a memorable moment that ended with a huge cheer from the fans and Wright’s first ceremonial fish yeeting.
Looking ahead to the 2022-23 season, our expectation is that Wright will break training camp with the Kraken. The Kraken have the option to either keep him in the NHL for the full season or send him back to the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs. Due to an agreement between the NHL and CHL, Wright cannot play in the AHL. If he goes back to Kingston, he would not burn the first year of his entry-level contract, but we are of the mindset that he has nothing left to prove at the OHL level. The Kraken can play Wright in nine games before deciding to keep him or send him back down to juniors, per the aforementioned agreement.
We think he will stay even if he has a slow start, but we shall see.
Kraken prospects Nelson, Kartye, and Firkus impress
Aside from Beniers and Wright, Ty Nelson, Tye Kartye, and Jagger Firkus were the three players that stood out to us the most at development camp.
Nelson, an 18-year-old defenseman selected No. 68 overall, is built like a sparkplug. He’s swift on his feet and positions his body in a way that makes it impossible for opposing players to take the puck off his stick. He also has a downright infectious personality, so we will be rooting for this kid.
Here’s the very affable Ty Nelson on how special it is to be in development camp with his North Bay teammate, Kyle Jackson. pic.twitter.com/S6qqFcMIJJ
Speaking of infectious personalities, Jagger Firkus really did bring the Firkus Circus to town. He looks very small on the ice — which makes sense, since he is currently only 158 pounds — but when he adds weight to his body, there is NHL-level skill there. Heads were spinning at the scrimmage when he slipped the puck between Jacob Melanson’s legs, then shot from between his own legs.
.@BrianLiesse captured perfectly the moment when the crowd made the loudest "ooh's and ahh's" in today's scrimmage. Jagger Firkus slipped the puck between Jacob Melanson's legs, and then shot from between his own legs.
We should also note, Melanson and Ryan Winterton (who was not on the ice at camp) also signed their respective entry-level contracts this week.
Kraken free agency not much of a frenzy… so far
We have a hard time believing this is what Francis meant when he said months ago that the Kraken would be “aggressive” in free agency. Though the team has signed a lot of players since Wednesday, most of the signings are clearly to build out the Coachella Valley Firebirds roster.
We do think Seattle has marginally improved by shoring up the right defense position with Justin Schultz and upgrading on the wing with Andre Burakovsky. But neither of those players are “needle movers” that will individually catapult the team into the playoffs next season. Of course, Wright could also help, but it is hard to project how much an 18-year-old player can contribute to an NHL club.
There are still some big names out there, like Nazem Kadri and John Klingberg, plus some second-tier forward options like Nino Niederreiter, Sonny Milano, and Evan Rodrigues. The Kraken still have north of $9.8 million in cap space and could go over the cap if they put Chris Driedger on long-term injured reserve.
By no means do we think the team is done improving its roster, and we also do not see it as a coincidence that Seattle still has that much space, considering there are guys like Kadri and Klingberg still available. If things remain quiet on the free agency front for the Kraken, then expect trades in the coming weeks.
Johnny Hockey signs with… Columbus?
The biggest story of free agency was undoubtedly Johnny Gaudreau’s shocking decision to sign with the Columbus Blue Jackets. It became clear just a day before the opening of free agency that Gaudreau was turning down an eight-figure-per-year offer from the Calgary Flames and would hit the market.
The Philadelphia Flyers— widely rumored to be Gaudreau’s preferred destination — did not make the star center an offer, citing a lack of cap space and further infuriating their fanbase.
As for the Kraken, we haven’t officially heard that Seattle ever had a chance at landing Gaudreau, but we did ask Francis if the team was interested. Here’s what he said: “Yeah, we were interested in everybody coming to play here.” [Smattering of laughs from assembled media.] “Sometimes players want to play in certain markets or closer to home or different things. So, there’s a lot of factors that go into those final decisions.”
That indicates to us that Seattle at least reached out to Gaudreau’s camp.
Winners of the week
There were a few teams around the league that really improved themselves this week. Columbus jumps out, thanks to Gaudreau, but look out for the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings next season, two teams that have languished near the bottom of the standings for a long time.
The Senators followed up their draft-day trade for Alex DeBrincat by signing Claude Giroux and trading for a previously disgruntled Cam Talbot. They also inked young stud Josh Norris to a long-term contract extension. GM Pierre Dorion’s rebuild took some enormous steps over the last nine days.
Meanwhile, the Yzerplan in Detroit jumped ahead a few spaces on the game board, when the Red Wings traded for and signed Ville Husso, then landed Ben Chiarot, Dominik Kubalik, Andrew Copp, and David Perron on the open market.
SEATTLE – Shane Wright said it best this week when describing how hearing his name called at the NHL Draft fulfilled a childhood dream. He’s right, and most of the players participating in the Seattle Kraken’s first development camp lived that dream out in some way. They heard their names called, and those in attendance at the draft got to pull an NHL jersey over their heads and pose for pictures.
Kraken prospect Tye Kartye didn’t get to live out that dream, but the forward was at camp this week with an NHL contract in his back pocket.
“There’s a lot of different paths,” Kartye said after the final day of development camp.
He was passed up by the NHL, first in 2019 after scoring four goals and 24 points for the Ontario Hockey League’s Soo Greyhounds. The following season he scored 26 goals but was passed up again as well as in 2021 when the OHL shut down due to the COVID pandemic.
“The first year I went through it, I don’t think I deserved to get drafted. So obviously it’s disappointing, but I kind of saw it coming,” Kartye, 21, said. “Then got passed up again and that was after a good season. That was a little more disappointing.”
While they didn’t draft him, the Kraken were interested enough and invited him to their training camp last fall. He said it didn’t take long to say yes to the invite.
Kartye gets Kraken camp invite
He played well in camp before last season, just hoping to expose the Kraken to his skill and leave an impression. Eventually he was returned to the Greyhounds for his final year of junior with no promises of where he would play in 2022-23.
“It was kind of like ‘you did a good job, and we’ll keep watching you,’” he said about the message Seattle gave him. “That obviously gave a boost to your confidence after a good camp. So, I kept that going through the start of the year.”
Armed with renewed confidence and positive encouragement from his coaches with the Greyhounds, Kartye had a good 2021-22 season. His coaches reminded him to keep grinding, knowing that his path to pro hockey was far from over.
He responded with a monster season, scoring 45 goals with 34 assists for 79 points in 63 games, good for fourth in the league scoring race.
“Everything came together for me, and the hard work for the first four years really paid off in that year,” Kartye said. “Just being older doesn’t mean you’re gonna have a good year. You look at the league and there’s guys throughout the league who are 20 and don’t live up to expectations. I definitely think that part of it was having the experience, but there’s a lot of other factors that went into that as well.”
It turns out that the Kraken were watching and started checking in with him around the holidays.
Signing his first NHL contract
Impressed, Seattle offered him an entry-level contract in early March.
“I was just ecstatic because this is what you’ve been trying to do for your whole junior career and you never know if it’s gonna happen,” Kartye said. “When you finally get that call with the offer. It’s a pretty special day.”
Getting signed is exciting enough, but when it comes from a hall-of-famer like Kraken general manager Ron Francis, who just happened to play his junior hockey for the same Soo Greyhounds franchise, it’s a little extra special.
“He’s a legend in the Soo,” Kartye said with a smile. “The rink is on Ron Francis Way.”
Kartye, who is listed at 6-foot-1 and 199 pounds, had a good showing at development camp. It was highlighted by him scoring a goal during the team’s midweek scrimmage.
He likely will start the season in the American Hockey League with the Coachella Valley Firebirds for his first pro hockey experience. Growing up in Ontario, he’s not familiar with the Valley but has heard about the weather and, as a golfer, is going to bring his clubs with him.
Expect to see Kartye at Kraken training camp in the fall, and since the Firebirds are starting their season in Seattle, he’ll be around one way or another. Even though he has a signed contract, Kartye isn’t taking things like development camp for granted.
“I’m just taking all the things I learned here and trying to implement them throughout the summer,” he said. “Just trying to be the best player I can be for training camp.”
It remains to be seen how much NHL time he’ll get, but Kartye is an example for younger players. He’s proved that even if you’re overlooked and passed up in the draft, that doesn’t mean giving up on pro hockey dreams.
“I would always tell the younger guys on my team in their draft year this is what happened to me,” Kartye said. “I had a good year and was one of the leaders on the team, so I tried to just implement to the young guys that the draft is not the be-all end-all. Obviously, everyone wants to get drafted and that’s your first option. But if it doesn’t work out, it’s definitely not the end of the road. There’s a lot of different paths.”
