Sure, the Kraken could get somebody like Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, or Jonathan Quick from the Kings in the Seattle Expansion Draft, but that seems unlikely.
It’s been a tough couple of years for Los Angeles Kings fans, who are still not that far removed from witnessing their club lift hockey’s greatest prize twice in three seasons between 2012 and 2014.
It must be difficult to see their team plummet from the cream of the crop all the way down to cellar dwellers in such a short time, although perhaps there is some overlap between Kings fans and Lakers/Dodgers fans, which would diminish the sour taste of not winning a championship for a few years.
What’s happened with the Kings is not unlike what has happened in places like, say, Chicago, where the central characters have remained on long, lucrative contracts, and as they age, the organization is attempting to rebuild around that same group through drafting and developing.
STATE OF THE TEAM
The old guard – Anze Kopitar, Brown, Carter, Drew Doughty, and Quick – have all reached their 30s, and in varying stages of the twilights of their respective careers find themselves stuck in the mud of a rebuild. Veteran feelings aside, L.A. seems to very much be on the right track to becoming a difficult Pacific Division foe for the Seattle Kraken within a few years.
Prospect experts indicate that Los Angeles had one of the deepest pools in the NHL before trading for Tyler Madden and drafting an elite talent in Quinton Byfield with the second overall selection in October’s NHL Entry Draft. This is obviously great news for Kings fans but confirms that this is a franchise that will certainly be a thorn in Seattle’s side for years to come.
Making things worse for Seattle, the Kraken will not have much to choose from off the coveted Kings’ prospect list, as the vast majority of their youth movement will not meet the exposure eligibility requirement of two professional seasons. So, if you think the Kraken will have a chance at guys like Alex Turcotte, Arthur Kaliyev, Rasmus Kupari, Gabe Vilardi, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, or Samuel Fagemo, you would be incorrect.
ASSUMPTIONS
The Kings are one team that we at Sound Of Hockey predict will protect eight total skaters, rather than seven forwards and three defensemen, in the Seattle Expansion Draft. This is because we think they will want to protect an additional defenseman, pushing Seattle to choose one of their interchangeable forwards, of whom they have several.
We are assuming that L.A. will not be good again next season. Byfield has a solid chance of playing right away and being impactful, but coming out of junior hockey, it is unlikely he will be able to move the needle enough to get the Kings back to being competitive. Additions of guys such as Olli Maatta and Lias Andersson will also fall short of putting L.A. back into contention, and the team’s deep well of youngsters is not quite ready to be tapped and labeled the new core of the team.
We also believe at least some of the veterans of the past Stanley Cup runs will be exposed in favor of maintaining the future. Doughty — the youngest of the old core at 30 years old — is the only one of the group with a no-movement clause, so he is guaranteed to be protected. Otherwise, one can imagine a world in which all the remaining players of yore could be there for the taking.
But does Seattle want one of those veterans? We doubt it (unless Kopitar somehow becomes available, which feels like a long shot).
OFFSEASON WILDCARDS
There’s still time for things to change for this roster before puck drop in … well … January … ish? But with the free agent market all but stalled, unless L.A. for some reason pulls off a whopper of a trade, it feels like the front office is prepared to stink for another year.
PROTECTED LIST
FORWARDS
It crossed our minds at Sound Of Hockey that the Kings could expose Kopitar to Seattle in the Expansion Draft, being that he will be 34 when the Kraken start playing, and his contract runs all the way until 2024 at a $10M annual cap hit… But we thought better of it. Unless he has a terrible season, Kopitar will be protected. He is still their best player.
- Anze Kopitar (Lock … ish)
- Adrian Kempe (Lock)
- Alex Iafallo (Lock)
- Blake Lizotte
DEFENSE
One question mark here didn’t exist for L.A. two months ago. The Kings took Olli Maatta’s salary off the hands of the cap-strapped Blackhawks at the beginning of October in a move that cleared $3 million from Chicago’s books through 2021-22.
Sean Walker had previously been slated as the last guy protected on L.A.’s blueline, but does Maatta’s addition to the lineup change this? While both players are 26 years old, Maatta has way more service time than Walker with 427 career games, 124 points, and two Stanley Cups.
The two had similar stats this past season, and while Walker has a better contract ($1.4 million lower cap hit for two years longer than Maatta), we will give the protection edge to Maatta, based on a stronger long-term resume.
- Drew Doughty (NMC – Lock)
- Kale Clague (Lock)
- Matt Roy (Lock)
- Olli Maatta
GOALIE
Quick, turning 35 in January, is flat out too old to protect and has lost whatever the goalie version of “a step” would be. Jack Campbell was traded away to Toronto during the season. That leaves only one in L.A.’s crease that shall be protected.
- Cal Peterson
TOP KINGS TARGETS FOR SEATTLE EXPANSION DRAFT
FORWARDS
- Austin Wagner
- Lias Andersson
- Martin Frk
- Carl Grundstrom
- Matt Luff
- Trevor Moore
Andersson is a very interesting case and another one of those assets that wasn’t something for the Kings to worry about in expansion two months ago. He had a tough go in the Rangers organization, eventually asking for a trade, leaving the team, and returning to Sweden.
New York did officially deal him to L.A. on draft day, giving Andersson a fresh start on the opposite coast. He so far has not lived up to his No. 7 overall selection, but the kid has oodles of talent and is still just 21 years old. Seattle could do much worse than landing a young player with this much upside this early in his career.
Wagner, 23, is the other most intriguing choice here. With probably less upside than Andersson, Wagner has a ton of speed and has proven himself a useful NHL player, though mostly in a checking role. In 127 career games played, Wagner has 18 goals and 14 assists.
DEFENSE
- Olli Maatta
- Sean Walker
We talked previously about the decision to be made between Maatta and Walker, and that’s assuming that Los Angeles does take the route of protecting eight total skaters in favor of holding onto four of their defensemen. Should the Kings go with the seven/three/one protection list, then Seattle would be able to choose from Maatta and Walker if one of those is more appealing than an Andersson or Wagner up front.
GOALIE
- Jonathan Quick
… But we don’t think this will happen.
SIDE DEAL SCENARIOS
Brown and Carter are signed through 2021-22 and Quick is signed through 2022-23, all at $5M+ cap hits. With the Kraken needing to hit the cap floor, one could see the Kraken taking one of those players if Los Angeles can do enough to sweeten any such deal. Taking any of those players would not be done with the intent of building the Kraken roster around them, but rather to get the Kings to throw in useful assets and get a year or two of service from an aging but respected veteran.
Check out our previous articles looking at likely Seattle Expansion Draft scenarios for the Red Wings, Senators, and Sharks.
Andersson is a head case and whiner, and not real physical, but has that talent and has played well back in Sweden. At 21, he still has enough time to grow up and act like an adult. His problem in NY was he was rushed into the lineup, at too young an age and because he was a high pick, he expected to be GIVEN a top roll, when at the NHL level, it has to be earned. He didn’t earn it! He had a difficult time getting used to the smaller ice surface and the physical North American style of play. He also had a difficult time with the culture, foods, etc. Immature, he wouldn’t listen to coaches and when he was sent down to Hartford, he pouted. During the return to play last summer, the Rangers invited him back, but they didn’t guarantee him a spot in the top six, so he refused to come over and that sealed his fate with NY. However, if he matures, gets his head on straight and now realizes what it takes to play in the NHL, the talent is there. Should he be available, I would think about taking him.
Yes, there’s definitely some growing up to do. He’s also the player that threw his silver medal into the crowd at the WJC, so he has a history. There really is something to be said about a change of scenery, though, and the upside is real, so I personally will be watching him closely this year to see how he responds to new surroundings.
Thanks for reading, John!
Kings will not protect Maata. If they protect an additional defenseman, it will be Walker.
Of those listed as targets, in order I’d go
Sean Walker
Austin Wagner
Martin Frk
Carl Grundstrom
Matt Luff
I haven’t seen Olli Maatta yet so I’m not sure what he has to offer, nor Lias Andersson.
I definitely wouldn’t pick Quick. He seems to be playing lower and becoming more vulnerable to shots over the shoulders as time goes on. Most of his vulnerabilities in the last few years has been more about the defence not covering holes he’s gotten used to leaving open specifically because reliable defence was there (but are forgetting to be now). He’s also lost his sheen against one on none breakaways. The last year they’ve been a guaranteed goal rather than the guaranteed stop they used to be.
Looking forward to switching over from being a Kings fan to a Kraken fan next season.
Great insight! Thanks for reading and sharing. I’m very curious to see if they end up going the seven/three protection route or the eight total skaters route. The level of talent offered by the Kings won’t be as good as other teams, but there will still be tough decisions to be made.
Like your thinking! I have the Kraken choosing Quick and then peddling him at the Deadline for Futures to a team on the brink of a Stanley Cup…hello Carolina! Otherwise its going to be either Maatta/Clague or Frk/Wagner
What makes you think Matt Roy and Kale Clague are locks? They could just protect Walker and Maatta. I guess if they are trying to focus on younger players Clague makes some sense since he is a few years younger. However Roy is just 1 year younger than Maatta or Walker so why go with him? Just to get out of a bigger contract assuming they re-sign Roy to another lower deal? The protecting 4 D-men does make some sense if they are happier with the forward prospects but they probably aren’t losing an important future player either way.
As a long-time Kings fan (and a PNW resident), I think I can reasonably predict who they will protect (this season’s performance notwithstanding). They’re likely going to do the 7-3-1 plan.
At forward, as said above, Kopitar, Kempe, and Iafallo are locks to protect. The Kings don’t have to protect Lizotte, as he’s only a 2nd year player. Carter is an interesting case, as he’s had a good start to the season and is healthy for the first time in a while. We’ll see what happens there, but they *could* protect him if he keeps on producing. Athanasiou is also interesting. He’s a UFA at the end of the year, but if he continues to produce the Kings could re-sign (and protect) him. Also, Andersson seems to be fitting in just fine so far. The other players seem to like him, and he’s got much less pressure, so he could really start to fulfill his potential. He and Grundstrom (the Kings *love* his energy, and he seems to be developing a bit of a scoring touch) have chemistry and both could be protected. So, I see the Kings protecting Kopitar (NTC), Kempe, Iafallo, Andersson, Grundstrom, and possibly Carter and Athanasiou. They’ll expose Brown, Moore, and Amadio.
On defense, they’ll definitely protect Doughty (NTC), Walker, and Roy. I don’t see Maata being protected unless things turn around for him in a hurry. He was a deserved healthy scratch in the last game against St. Louis, and the Kings’ defense looked better because of it. He’s a bridge player at this point. Clague and Anderson (along with Bjornfot, Durzi, and anyone else they bring up later this year) don’t need to be protected as they’re rookies. They’ll expose MacDermid and Maata.
Goal is pretty clear – Quick is exposed, Peterson is protected.
Thanks for the insight! You make some very interesting points, and it’s fascinating how things are already changing since I wrote this, now that the season is progressing.
I do have one correction, which is that the rules of the draft are based on pro service time. After this season, guys like Lizotte and Clague will have more than two years of service time in the AHL/NHL, so both of them will have to be protected if LA wants to keep them. We did a rules post (link below) that is helpful, and capfriendly.com has an awesome and accurate Expansion Draft tool that tells you who needs protecting and who doesn’t.
Thanks for reading and commenting!
https://soundofhockey.com/2020/11/12/breaking-down-the-seattle-kraken-nhl-expansion-draft-rules/
Thanks for the correction! I still don’t see Lizotte being protected. The Kings have a whole lot of center-ice talent coming up this year and next (Byfield, Turcotte, Madden), and as much as I love Lizotte’s game, his upside is limited. He’ll likely be unprotected. Clague, however, will be, meaning that either Roy or Walker will be exposed. My money’s on Roy being exposed. Also, I forgot to include Frk and Luff in my earlier post. They’ll both be exposed as well.
Yeah, the Kings are interesting for Seattle, IMO. We had Lisa Dillman on our podcast a few weeks ago, and she had the same mindset about the center depth… LA almost has too many centers in their system, which is so rare for an NHL team and a great problem to have. The Kraken won’t have a real foundational player coming from LA, but there’s talent to be had. It’s just not super obvious which guy will end up being the best option, because there’s likely still some developing to be done.