A few weeks ago, on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we discussed whether the 2024-25 Seattle Kraken are a playoff team. The conclusion was that we don’t know yet. Talent-wise, they are better than last season’s roster, and their goal scoring should improve enough to give them a shot at reaching the postseason.
However, for every new team entering the playoff picture in a season, another playoff team from the previous year must drop out. To get a better idea of which teams might miss the playoffs to make room, I decided to forecast the goal scoring of all Pacific Division teams using the same methodology I used when forecasting the Kraken. This way, we can identify some of the potential teams that might drop out of the playoffs next spring.
Forecasting from the bottom up
Let me say this up front: forecasting is inherently flawed. You are making predictions and assumptions about things with many uncontrollable variables. Nobody knows who might suffer a serious injury or have a breakout year in goal scoring. We simply use the information we have and try to apply it to future outcomes. It’s not perfect, and running it through a more complex statistical model doesn’t guarantee it is “less wrong.”
I will keep it very simple by using a bottom-up approach to forecast the goals scored by every notable player on a roster. For NHL players, I will examine the last three seasons of games played, adjusted goals scored, and average goals scored per game. Then, I will estimate the number of games each team will play and multiply that by their average goals per game to get a forecasted adjusted-goals total for each player. For rookies expected to play in the league, I had to take a more subjective approach by looking at how similar rookies have performed in their first season.
Additionally, the number of games forecasted for a player is 75 games. I am well aware that there will be plenty of players that will play over 75, but injuries are part of the game, and on average I expect the top guys to play 75 games in the season.
The individual player goals forecast will be the least accurate because performance can vary as circumstances change. However, on the aggregate, the totals should be more accurate. That’s my way of saying: please don’t contact me in April to tell me how my forecast for Yegor Sharangovich was way off. It probably will be—I know it.
(**Editor’s note: But if John nails it on Sharangovich’s projection, please do contact him to tell him how brilliant he is.)
Anaheim Ducks
I forecast the Anaheim Ducks to score 231 adjusted goals in 2024-25, which is 35 more than last season. The increase is driven by rookie additions and full seasons from Trevor Zegras and Leo Carlsson. I’m assuming rookies Sam Colangelo (eight goals) and Cutter Gauthier (10 goals) will play 55 games, which might be optimistic in terms of both games played and goal scoring. Zegras only played in 31 games last season after suffering a broken leg, so that might be a bit high as well. He did play 75 and 81 games in the seasons prior to 2023-24, so he’s certainly capable of playing a full season without injury.
Defensively, it’s hard to forecast Anaheim’s deployments next season. The Ducks have shown a cautious approach to integrating players into the NHL, often scratching rookies to avoid overwhelming them in the first season. I assume Olen Zellweger will get more NHL playing time, but at whose expense? Jackson LaCombe and Urho Vaakanainen appear to be the most likely candidates to see a reduction in games, but neither contributes significantly to goal scoring.
Sniff test: I don’t think anyone is expecting much from the Ducks this coming season, so this goal forecast seems a little high. I can’t objectively find a reason to lower the forecast, so for now, I’ll keep it as is.
Calgary Flames
The Flames’ scoring projections are in line with their numbers from last year. They lost several pending free agents at the trade deadline and traded Andrew Mangiapane this offseason. Some of the lost goal scoring will be offset by a full season of Andrei Kuzmenko, who they acquired at the trade deadline, and the signing of Anthony Mantha in free agency. Additionally, Connor Zary looks to build upon his solid rookie season last year. The Flames’ first-round pick from 2021, Matthew Coronato, should also stick with the team this season.
Sniff test: This feels about right, but you wonder how much the losses of defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev will impact the rest of the team’s goal scoring. The Flames averaged 3.13 goals per game before Hanifin was traded on March 6 and scored 2.95 goals per game after the trade. Perhaps more telling about the state of the Flames is that they allowed 3.07 goals against per game before the Hanifin trade and 3.81 goals against per game after.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers didn’t have a problem scoring goals last season, with 280 adjusted goals—the most in the Pacific Division. This offseason, they added even more scoring with the acquisitions of Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, and Victor Arvidsson. These additions contributed 70 goals to their forecast. The losses of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg will have minimal impact on overall goal production next season.
Sniff test: This team is going to score a ton next season, but I think this forecast might be a bit too optimistic. A forecast of 315 adjusted goals is 18 more than the top team in the league (Toronto) had last season.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings lost a few goal-scoring pieces this offseason through free agency, including Viktor Arvidsson, Blake Lizotte, and Matt Roy. They also traded Carl Grundstrom to San Jose and sent the much-maligned Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Washington Capitals for Darcy Kuemper. None of those players are irreplaceable, but the sum of those departures amounts to 40 non-empty-net goals. They backfilled those losses with Tanner Jeannot and Warren Foegele, who collectively forecast at 26 adjusted goals next season. For the Kings to make up the difference, they’ll need young players like Quinton Byfield and Alexis Laferriere to take another step.
Sniff test: This forecast feels about right, but some of the young guys could break out with the additional opportunities provided by the departures. Additionally, Byfield is probably at least a 20-goal scorer next season, but Phillip Danault might be slowing down a bit. Either way, the Kings could be one of the vulnerable teams to lose their playoff spot from last season.
San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks scored the second-fewest adjusted goals in the league with 176 last season. Two of their top goal scorers, Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair, were traded at the deadline. In the offseason, they added Tyler Toffoli, Barclay Goodrow, and former Kraken Alex Wennberg, but they need more than that if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The future looks bright for the Sharks with the drafting and signing of Macklin Celebrini and the signing of fourth overall forward Will Smith this offseason. They also appear to have a good young forward in William Eklund, and Thomas Bordeleau might have a chance to establish himself as an everyday NHLer. Oh, and they just traded for stud goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov.
They’re on the right path, but I only expect them to be slightly more competitive than last year, which wasn’t very competitive at all.
Sniff test: This seems accurate. The Sharks have a lot of youth on the roster but are very thin on experience, which should be a challenge for them this season.
Seattle Kraken
My Seattle Kraken forecast was posted separately a few weeks ago—check it out here. The increase in adjusted goal scoring is attributable to the free-agent signings of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, as well as the expected positive regression to the mean in goal scoring after a disappointing 2023-24 season in that category.
Sniff test: As I mentioned before, on paper, the team is better this season, but we don’t expect them to reach the same level of goal scoring as in the 2022-23 season. This feels about right.
Vancouver Canucks
The forecast for the Canucks is a drop of 16 adjusted goals from last season. The decline is primarily driven by a projected decrease in goal production from J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, who both had career highs in goals last season. The Canucks did add Jake DeBrusk in the offseason, which will help replace the goals lost with Andrei Kuzmenko (trade deadline) and Sam Lafferty (free agency). Assuming their goaltending remains stable, the Canucks look formidable again.
Sniff test: Last season, the Canucks had one of the highest shooting percentages in the league, so even Canucks fans might expect a bit of a regression. Even with a 16-goal drop next season, the Canucks are still a playoff team, and that seems accurate.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forecasting Vegas is challenging. They saw several departures this offseason, including 42-goal scorer Jonathan Marchessault, who signed in Nashville, and 16-goal scorer Chandler Stephenson, who signed with Seattle. Offsetting those departures, they acquired Alexander Holtz from New Jersey and signed Victor Olofsson in free agency. Holtz is an up-and-comer who could thrive with more opportunities in Vegas, while Olofsson is just two seasons removed from a 28-goal season in Buffalo. Additionally, if they stay healthy, the Golden Knights should have full seasons from Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone. My forecast estimates 60 and 50 games, respectively, for those two players given their injury history.
Sniff test: It seems like every season we expect the Golden Knights to drop in the standings, but they continue to prove us wrong. They seem like the most likely team to drop out of the playoffs, but there is still a lot of high-end talent on this team.
Summary
This is what it looks like when we put all the Pacific Division teams together.
I know what you’re thinking—how convenient that a writer (and unabashed fan) covering the Seattle Kraken predicts the Kraken will see the biggest increase in goals next season. It’s more than fair to be skeptical—I’m a bit skeptical myself. I did use the same methodology for all teams, but my intimate knowledge of the Kraken could have inadvertently impacted my approach. If nothing else, this was a good primer for the upcoming season, highlighting the roster changes in the Pacific Division and how those changes might play out.
What are your thoughts? Are there any blatant errors in the assumptions?
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The conversation surrounding the Seattle Kraken captaincy is one I’ve largely avoided over the past couple of seasons. Some fans seem to care about it a lot, but I generally haven’t involved myself for a couple of reasons.
The first reason I haven’t engaged too often in this debate is that I don’t think the success of the team hinges on having a captain or not (though some in the Twittersphere seem to think it’s the reason the Kraken struggled last season). Since Seattle named Mark Giordano captain and then dealt him at the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline after less than a season wearing the “C,” things have been going just fine with the so-called “leadership group” approach. Yes, the team took a step back last season, but remember, there was no captain in place when the Kraken were one goal shy of the Western Conference Finals in 2022-23.
The second reason I haven’t gotten too involved in these conversations is that I haven’t felt the ideal candidate exists in the organization. I still feel this way.
But…
The winds do seem to be shifting toward Seattle naming one of its players captain for the upcoming season and beyond.
Will that player be the perfect fit, one who can lead now and for many years to come? No. Still, the undertones from general manager Ron Francis’s end-of-season press availability seemed to indicate that the franchise is leaning toward electing a new leader.
If that’s the case, then the time is nigh for me to also get on board and join the Kraken captain conversation.
Defining the ideal captain
When I think of an ideal NHL captain, I imagine a player who earns the title relatively early in his career by already being a top player on the team and demonstrating natural leadership qualities both on and off the ice. That player can still have plenty to learn about being a captain and being an NHLer, but it should be somebody who is a clear cornerstone and who figures to be the face of the franchise for many years to come.
Is Matty that guy?
Matty Beniers ticks some of those boxes, including the piece about “many years to come” after he signed a seven-year deal with the team on Tuesday. But I don’t think he’s ready just yet. The Kraken do not feel like they are “Matty’s team” at this point.
I have a theory that part of why Seattle has been dragging its feet on naming a captain is because somebody in the organization believes Beniers will eventually be the guy and wants to hold off on giving it to anybody until he’s ready. But with the tone shifting toward the team wanting a captain, the patience may be waning just enough that a shorter-term solution could be becoming palatable.
Another thing to think about is how Shane Wright could factor into the leadership conversation down the road. I spoke with him earlier this summer, and he told me he didn’t view himself as a leader of the Coachella Valley Firebirds last season, and instead heaped the praise for the team’s success onto its veterans. But if you watched that team play, it did feel like “Shane’s team.” Could the Kraken become “Shane’s team” in a couple of years?
The shorter-term solution
If Beniers isn’t ready to take the captaincy, then Wright certainly isn’t, but I do think either of those players could be considered in a couple of years. The obvious solution is to name one of the veterans on the team as captain, with the expectation that one of those younger guys takes the torch when said veteran exits.
To me, the clear-cut choice is Jordan Eberle. At 34 years old and with two more years under contract, his timeline for how much longer he’ll be in the organization feels just long enough. Give Beniers (or perhaps Wright) a little more time to develop his game and quietly move into more of a leadership role without the pressure of being “the guy.” Then once Eberle makes his probable departure after the 2025-26 season, Matty takes the infinite wisdom he’s gathered from living under Eberle’s wing for four seasons and runs with it.
Eberle is a true pro
When the Kraken took Eberle from the New York Islanders in the Expansion Draft, I knew Seattle was getting a well-known, skilled veteran. I did not know how polished he was off the ice in terms of speaking with the media and handling difficult situations. Every time he speaks, he gives some little nugget of information that reminds you he has seen and been through every situation the sport can throw at a player.
There’s no question that younger players on the team look up to Eberle, and I can think of no better fit to wear the “C” short-term.
Other candidates
If I had written this article a year ago, I may have given the nod to Yanni Gourde. The smiling pest is another obvious leader on the team, and some folks in the Kraken sphere see him as the heart and soul of the club. But, I fear Yanni’s time with the team is nearing its end, and depending on how things go for him this season, this may be his last lap in deep-sea blue. Handing him the “C” now does not make sense to me.
Another option that was mentioned by John Barr on last week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast is Adam Larsson. I agree there’s some level of fit there, and the guys on the team clearly love Larsson. He quietly goes about his business and leads by example, but he’s also secretly one of the funniest guys in the locker room and has endeared himself to his teammates.
There are two challenges with naming Larsson the short-term captain, though. First, the Big Cat—like Gourde—is also entering the last year of his contract with Seattle. While I could see Larsson sticking around beyond this season, I’m feeling like the Kraken may want to have this captaincy decision made before the season starts. I highly doubt they will give it to a guy on an expiring contract again, because look how that played out with Giordano.
The other thing to consider with Larsson is that he isn’t a guy that gets trotted out to talk to media after a bad loss. That’s not a primary responsibility of the captaincy, but it is something the captain does. Larsson is very quiet and reserved when speaking to the media, whereas Eberle has been the guy the team has leaned on for three seasons when it has dealt with painful losing streaks and lopsided defeats, and he always knows just what to say.
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I’m afraid to ask because this is an oddly divisive conversation, but what do you think, folks? Are the Kraken ready for a captain? If so, who should it be?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Seattle Kraken have been active this offseason, making a splash in free agency and shaking up the coaching staff. With the NHL preseason starting in just over a month, we wanted to go over what we expect to see from the Kraken under new bench boss, Dan Bylsma.
Coaching style
Bylsma’s approach to coaching stems from the relationships he is able to build. We often hear that he is well-prepared, direct, and clear in his messaging, and he creates a balance between being firm on what the player needs to do to succeed while keeping the atmosphere light and positive.
One comment we’ve heard on his coaching style is that his offense relies heavily on the stretch pass, where his players leave the defensive zone early and try to receive a long pass for an odd-man rush. This worked in Pittsburgh, where they had highly skilled players, but can the Kraken replicate that success? His time in Coachella Valley showed that he has updated his style to match the players on his team and adopted a similar system to what the Kraken were using under Dave Hakstol. So, perhaps his approach to systems in Seattle will be different to that of his time with the Penguins.
Buzz words
Dan Bylsma’s coaching style is all about a fast north-south transition game. (**Editor’s Note: That is a bit of an inside joke from one of the Sound Of Hockey Patreon Mailbag sessions.)
Thank you to Sound Of Hockey Patreon member Mike N. for submitting a question and triggering this article. Mike asked, “… what should we be looking for when the team takes the ice in preseason?” as well as some definitions for some buzz words around Bylsma’s coaching style. Let’s start with some definitions:
Transition game – How the team moves from defense to offense. Typically, speed and control contribute to a better transition game.
Fast – When mentioned in the same breath as coaching, this typically refers to the pace at which the team gets the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone.
North/South – North is the offensive zone and South is the defensive zone. It involves excelling in both zones and getting up and down the ice quickly. Our own Darren Brown wrote about systems and “playing fast” back in April.
Really, the above words can be used in any combination to describe what any team or coach is trying to do. If there are other buzz words causing confusion, feel free to comment below and we will try to define them.
Indicators of success for Bylsma
Preseason games have a few purposes: one of which is to practice and fine tune for the regular season, and another of which is to determine who makes the final Opening Night roster. And while personnel for NHL teams during preseason can vary dramatically from game to game, we should start to get a glimpse at Bylsma’s strategies during these games, as his players put systematic tweaks into practice. Here’s what we will be looking for in these games.
Dan Bylsma (Photo/Brian Liesse)
North/South
North (offense)
The No. 1 goal for the Kraken this season should be to increase scoring if they are to have any success. Seattle was 29th in the NHL in goals scored in 2023-24. This can be tracked simply by looking at the goals scored per game, but this does not take into account the quality of opponent. Another statistic to consider is high-danger shots. Seattle was also 29th in the NHL for high-danger shots at 252 during the 2023-24 season, per Moneypuck.com, which tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots.
For the eye test folks, you will want to watch if the Kraken are getting shots from between the face-off dots. Under Hakstol, the Kraken played a possession game and cycled the puck along the boards looking for an opening to get the puck into the high-danger areas. Many of their shots, though, ended up coming from the points when they struggled to get pucks to the middle. We do not expect the approach to change dramatically, but watch if the Kraken are able to get the puck off the boards more frequently.
Another big part of offensive success comes from the power play. New assistant coach Bob Woods will be in charge of running the power play with Jessica Campbell also providing guidance. The Kraken have seen improvement year-over-year with the power play, topping out at 20.7 percent last season. This ranked the Kraken in the middle of the NHL, but continued improvement will be welcomed. Seattle has upgraded personnel for this area as well with the additions of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, so perhaps these changes will give the team a boost with the manpower advantage.
Read more about the Kraken power play in an article by our own John Barr. Once again, it’s important to focus on where the shots are being taken; more shots from within the face-off dots will lead to more offensive success.
South (defense)
There is not much to change on the south end of the ice, as the Kraken were eighth best in the league in goals against with 232. Out of the top 10 teams in goals against, the Kraken were the only team to not make the postseason. With the addition of Montour and the expectation that Ryker Evans makes the Kraken full-time this year, it does seem to shift the mindset of the D corps to lean more offensive, so it will be interesting to see how Seattle’s play in its own end evolves.
Moneypuck.com also tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots against. The Seattle Kraken were No. 1 in the NHL for allowing the fewest high-danger shots against (239), second at medium-danger shots (577), and 19th at low-danger shots (2727). This highlights that under Hakstol, the Kraken would give teams shots from low-percentage areas but really protected the more dangerous areas. If the Kraken are to continue their defensive effectiveness, watch for shots against to continue coming from the perimeter and from farther away from the net.
Fast transition game (controlled zone entries versus dump and chase)
The first few years of Kraken hockey featured a primarily dump-and-chase style. The Kraken would shoot the puck deep into the offensive zone and then use a forecheck to control it. The jury is still out on whether this was Hakstol’s preferred way to gain the zone or the best he could do it with the players he was given. Hakstol’s approach was partly defensive as well, as the other team cannot score if the puck is in their defensive zone. Bylsma will face similar personnel challenges, as the Kraken still lack elite offensive punch.
There has been a lot of research on the benefits of controlled zone entries. Research by Eric Tulsky and Thibaud Chatel is a good place to start if you want some additional reading. To summarize, successful controlled zone entries lead to a two-fold increase in shots on goal compared to dump and chase. This is something else to keep in mind while watching the games to determine if the Kraken tend to carry the puck into the zone or use a dump-and-chase approach. This will continue to evolve into the regular season as other NHL teams finalize their rosters and tweak their defensive play.
Players to watch
There are many interesting players to watch during training camp and preseason. We’ve divided these players into three groups: new free agents, Coachella Valley Firebirds, and players returning to junior hockey.
Two players new to Coach Bylsma’s system are free-agent signings Stephenson and Montour. Both are expected to be key contributors on the Kraken’s top lines. Identifying their linemates and seeing how on-ice chemistry develops during preseason will be a crucial storyline to follow.
Joining a new team as a free agent can be a rocky road for some players, so getting off to a good start will be important for these two players, who will face plenty of expectations to produce right away.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
From the 2023-24 Firebirds roster, two players stand out: Shane Wright and Ryker Evans. They are widely expected to make the Kraken roster full-time this year. Evans played 36 games with the Kraken last year and 25 games with the Firebirds, and with how the roster is now shaped, the organization is clearly expecting him to be with the big club. It will be interesting to watch how these two slot into the lineup and whether they look like they can keep up with NHL-level talent during the course of a full season.
Beyond these two players, there is a group of players getting closer, but who we expect to play for Coachella Valley this year. This group will be eager to show how they have improved during Training Camp. While this is not an exhaustive list, these are players we will be monitoring closely in preseason.
Logan Morrison
Ryan Winterton
Lleyton Roed
Tucker Robertson
Jacob Melanson
Ville Ottavainen
Jani Nyman
Jagger Firkus
David Goyette
Ty Nelson
Watching how long these players stick around during camp can be an indicator of how well they are performing and how they are perceived by the Kraken. There is still at least a roster spot or two to be had, so while we don’t *expect* these players to make the team full-time, it can happen.
Look no further than Tye Kartye, who made the most of his opportunity during the 2022-23 playoffs and then continued to impress in training camp to secure his spot on the roster. Even if none of these players make the team out of camp, this is a great chance to get a glimpse of the Kraken’s future while they play against elevated talent. They also may be call-ups in the event of injuries.
Players returning to juniors
Some of the top prospects in the Kraken organization are 19 or younger and not eligible to play in the AHL. These players either have to make the Kraken full-time or be returned to the CHL.
Carson Rehkopf
Berkly Catton
Eduard Sale*
It is a long shot for Rehkopf or Catton to make the roster for the full season, but if they put on a strong showing in rookie/training camp and preseason, they could stick around for up to nine games in the regular season. After that point, their entry-level contracts are no longer slide-eligible, meaning playing more NHL games would burn the first year of their entry-level contracts. Watching how these players are fitting in and hanging with legitimate NHL players provides a preview of the future.
Sale has an asterisk next to his name because it is unclear where he will play this year. Since he was playing in the Czech Extraliga when Seattle drafted the right winger, he is eligible to play for the Firebirds this year. At 19, he is also eligible to play in the CHL. The case for him playing with the Firebirds is strengthened by his 12 points in 10 games during the OHL playoffs, but he still hasn’t hit the level of production expected of a first-round draft pick. Additionally, Rehkopf was traded to the Brampton Steelheads, so Sale no longer has a fellow Kraken prospect with him in Kitchener.
While this is just speculation, with 38 points in 49 games in the CHL, returning to the Kitchener Rangers feels like the most likely destination for Sale.
#OHLRangers have completed a trade with the Brampton Steelheads
This article was inspired by one of our Patreon Mailbags. Thank you, Mike N., for the question and your support. (**Editor’s note: If you aren’t already a Patreon subscriber, you can become one today!). If you have any questions or comments please leave them below. You can follow me on the X at @blaizg.
This 2024-25 season will be the beginning of the end of an era for the Seattle Kraken. Many of the team’s original players have already come and gone from the roster, but a group of core veterans that has stuck around through Seattle’s first three seasons in existence will begin filtering out next summer.
Roster stalwarts like Yanni Gourde, Adam Larsson, Will Borgen, and Brandon Tanev are all set to become unrestricted free agents after the coming season, and the deals for Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eeli Tolvanen, and Jamie Oleksiak will end following 2025-26.
Meanwhile, a strong and growing prospect pool has produced several players that are knocking on the NHL door, and more could be ready for NHL gigs by the time some of the aforementioned veterans exit the fold.
So, while the 2024-25 Kraken will look fairly similar to the 2023-24 version, except with Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour providing upgrades over the likes of Kailer Yamamoto and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, the group will look very different next season.
With all this in mind, we decided to look into our crystal ball and make some way-too-early predictions on which of the players mentioned above will remain with the Kraken beyond the next two seasons.
Kraken UFA’s in 2024-25
Yanni Gourde
Yanni has been a fan favorite since being selected in the Expansion Draft from the Tampa Bay Lightning. A leader on the team, his willingness to go into the dirty areas of the ice and muck it up with players twice his size, smiling through getting punched in the face, has endeared him to the Seattle faithful.
But Gourde is no spring chicken at 32 years old. The key to his game is speed and energy, and while we still saw that last season, we also saw a decrease in his offensive production from 48 points (14-34—48) in 2022-23 to 33 points (11-22—33) in 2023-24.
With Matty Beniers and now Stephenson set to take the two top-six center spots, and Shane Wright potentially jumping into the third spot, that likely pushes Gourde down to a full-time 4C role, which would surely limit his ice time.
As much as it pains us to say this, we think this will be Gourde’s last season in deep sea blue.
Adam Larsson
The Big Cat has been an integral part of this team for three seasons, anchoring the top defense pair alongside the more offensively gifted Vince Dunn. Like Gourde, Larsson too is getting up there in years at 31, but his game and role are quite different than those of Yanni.
Larsson plays a stay-at-home style that serves well on the top pair now but could also bring value on lower defense pairings, even if the Swede loses a step or two over the coming seasons.
We also get the sense that Larsson loves Seattle. We could see him signing for a couple more years after this one.
Will Borgen
Borgen was a sneaky strong pick in the Expansion Draft. Chosen from the Buffalo Sabres, he was a relative unknown when his name was announced at Gasworks Park in July, 2021. After being mired in the pressbox during the Kraken’s inaugural season, Borgen has blossomed as a reliable, right-shot, two-way defenseman that brings an edge to his game.
He has good speed and instincts and is a quintessential middle- or bottom-pair type of player. We would love to see him take another step offensively this season, but even if he doesn’t, Borgen brings value.
At 27 years old, if he wants to return, we think the Kraken would want him back, though next summer will be the time for Borgen to cash in on the open market. Even so, we will predict a three-year extension for Borgen this season.
Brandon Tanev
Tanev is a player that the Kraken seem to value for his tenacious forechecking, energy, and penalty killing. But assuming good health, he is destined for the fourth line next season at a big $3.5 million cap hit.
We’re somewhat surprised Tanev hasn’t been traded already, being that he is entering the last year of his deal, but unless he’s willing to take a big pay cut and/or starts producing offense, we just can’t see him sticking with Seattle after this season.
Joey Daccord
Though he doesn’t quite fit in the “roster stalwart” category with the others (2023-24 was his first season as a full-time NHLer), Joey Daccord is also set to become a UFA after 2024-25 and deserves mentioning.
Daccord was perhaps the biggest bright spot in an otherwise frustrating 2023-24 season, and if he builds on that next season, he could approach star territory. If that does happen, and if he wants to stay with Seattle beyond his expiring contract, then he will be due for a monster raise from his current $1.5 million AAV.
Remember, Philipp Grubauer is still under contract for three more years at $5.9 million per, so if Daccord gets to a point where he will command big dollars, and Seattle wants him back, then Grubauer may have to go.
We will predict that Daccord stays after this season, and Grubauer exits, either through trade (unlikely) or buyout (more likely).
Kraken UFA’s in 2025-26
Jaden Schwartz
Schwartz has flown under the radar for much of his tenure with the Kraken, but he does a better job at going hard to the blue paint than any other forward on the team. So, he’s an important piece for the current roster.
But Schwartz has dealt with a lot of health issues the last few years that have pushed him out of the lineup for several extended periods. When this contract ends, Schwartz will be 34 years old.
We would not expect Schwartz back with the Kraken beyond 2025-26.
Jordan Eberle
While Schwartz has flown under the radar, Eberle has been a heart-and-soul leader of the team since Day 1 and showed his loyalty to the organization by agreeing to a two-year extension on the eve of last season’s NHL Trade Deadline.
But also like Schwartz, Eberle is getting long in the tooth and will likely slow down more than he already has over these next two campaigns.
We would not expect Eberle to remain a Kraken beyond 2025-26.
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Bjorkstrand is a different story than Schwartz and Eberle. A splashy trade acquisition from the Blue Jackets two offseasons ago, the Maestro has been a key cog for Seattle and has plenty of tread left on his tires at 29 years old.
Oddly, we still feel like he hasn’t hit his full potential with the Kraken. Perhaps the offensive upgrades made to the team this summer could help unlock more production from Bjorkstrand moving forward, but either way, we think the Kraken value his game.
We will predict that Bjorkstrand sticks around beyond 2025-26.
Eeli Tolvanen
Tolvanen’s career was in a tough spot when he arrived in Seattle and saw things turn around under former head coach Dave Hakstol. Given plenty of opportunity and good linemates, Tolvanen flourished and earned himself a two-year extension earlier this summer.
Notably, the length of that new deal does not buy out any of Tolvanen’s UFA years. While we don’t know which (if either) side pushed for that two-year term, it does feel like the heavy-shooting Finnish winger is setting himself up to test the open market two summers from now.
We will predict that Tolvanen performs well over the next two seasons but exits as a free agent after 2025-26.
Jamie Oleksiak
And finally, the Big Rig. We do believe Oleksiak is underrated. For a player his size, we know fans want to see him play more physically, but his reach and ability to clear the front of the net make him an important defender and a big reason why Seattle’s blue line was a strength last season.
The Kraken don’t have a ton in their prospect pool on the backend, but we know the organization thinks highly of Ville Ottavainen. Ottavainen has a similar profile to Oleksiak and could be two seasons away from being ready to take over that big, stay-at-home role at the NHL level (and for much cheaper than Oleksiak).
With Ottavainen coming and Oleksiak currently 31 years old, we will predict that Oleksiak does not return after his current contract.
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What say you, folks? Who stays and who goes over the next couple years?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
This will be a first pass at predicting the lines for the 2024-25 season. The picture will become a little clearer after training camp and preseason games, as we will see who is practicing together and if there is any chemistry between individual players. Obviously, to come up with line combinations, we have to make some assumptions on who will make the roster.
For purposes of this exercise, we will assume the following:
Ryker Evans and Shane Wright will be full-time Kraken players throughout the season.
This article was inspired by one of our Patreon Mailbags, where subscriber Katie had a question on what the special teams lines might be for the 2024-25 season. Thank you, Katie, for the question. (**Editor’s note: If you aren’t already a Patreon subscriber, you can become one today!) While we will mainly focus on special teams, we will also expand a bit on the original question and preview what Seattle could do for even-strength lines.
Remember, there was a handful of additions and departures that will alter the look of the upcoming season’s roster.
Departures
Alex Wennberg – Traded
Kailer Yamamoto – Free Agent
Tomas Tatar – Free Agent
Brian Dumoulin – Traded
Justin Schultz – Free Agent
Additions
Chandler Stephenson – Free Agent Signing
Brandon Montour – Free Agent Signing
Shane Wright – promoted from AHL
Ryker Evans – promoted from AHL
Josh Mahura – Free Agent Signing
All of the departures contributed to special teams at some point during the 2023-24 season, so there are open positions to fill. Factor in changes to the coaching staff as well, with Dan Bylsma, Bob Woods, and Jessica Campbell being brought in, we would expect special teams to change a lot from last season.
Power play lines
The power play looked different before and after the 2024 trade deadline, with the trade of Alex Wennberg and injuries to Andre Burakovsky and Vince Dunn. Here is how the Seattle Kraken power play lines looked at the end of the 2023-24 season:
Ryker Evans is expected to be on the roster full time and has had success on the power play in the AHL, but with the addition of Montour, he is at the bottom of the depth chart and will not be on the power play to start the year.
First power play line
Seattle’s two big free agent signings, Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, will make an immediate impact on the top power play unit. Stephenson won 52.6 percent of his face-offs last season, which is better than all Seattle Kraken centermen. In fact, no Kraken center was above 48 percent in the face-off dot.
Montour played on the top power play line for the Florida Panthers, who were sixth in the NHL with 63 goals. Montour averaged 3:54 of power play time per game, over a minute more than the Kraken’s top power play quarterback, Vince Dunn, who averaged 2:49 per game.
Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jared McCann were the top-scoring power play players with 25 and 23 points respectively. They have earned their spots on the top unit and will likely continue playing there into next season. Andre Burakovsky had the worst season of his career and is poised for a bounce back. He also has skills as a puck carrier and will be called upon to carry the puck into the offensive zone. If Burakovsky does not produce quickly, he could be dropped to the second unit.
Oliver Bjorkstrand (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Jared McCann (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Second power play unit
We would expect Seattle’s second unit to feature Beniers, who struggled to score consistently during a sophomore slump. Jordan Eberle will be the puck carrier into the offensive zone. Dunn will start out as the quarterback on the second unit and figures to again be productive. Even though Montour had more time on his team’s power play, he only had one more point than Dunn at 17. Montour is only a year removed, though, from getting 33 points on the power play, which is why we think Dunn will start the year on the second unit. Dunn could certainly jump back to the first unit if Montour’s doesn’t click with the top group.
Vince Dunn
Shane Wright and Ryker Evans will likely not make the power play to start the season but will be ready to step in if an injury arises or if a player is not meeting expectations. With head coach Dan Bylsma and assistant coach Jessica Campbell both coming from the Coachella Valley Firebirds, they have seen firsthand both Wright and Evans succeeding on the power play and will be ready to insert them onto one of the units as the opportunity arises. Wright will definitely increase the competition for a power play role, which will only make the Kraken better.
Patreon member Katie also asked about the possibility of seeing two defensemen on a power play unit. With the depth the Kraken have at the forward position, I see them using four forwards on most nights. They do have Evans, though, so a game situation could come up where they would deploy him, but typically you will see one defenseman on the power play.
Penalty kill lines
Here’s how the penalty kill units looked at the end of last season.
As with the power play, the penalty kill unit had some departures. Wennberg and Brian Dumoulin were traded, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was not re-signed. Stephenson is used to playing in all situations and will replace Wennberg. The Montour signing and expectations that Evans will make the team led to Dumoulin getting traded. McCann filled the the vacancy created by Wennberg’s departure after the deadline and could stay on the penalty killing unit. That leaves two vacancies to fill in the PK units.
With penalty killing, teams want to make sure someone is on the ice that can win a face-off. Of the forwards, only Brandon Tanev lacks in that department. We think Yanni Gourde and Tanev will be on the top penalty killing line, as they will often be more rested due to limited playing time in other situations. Their high energy approach was effective last year and should disrupt opposing power play units. Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak formed the top penalty kill defense pairing last year, and that will remain going into 2024-25.
The second unit will feature the two Kraken forwards that will play in all situations, Stephenson and McCann. Will Borgen has experience on the penalty kill and will take Evans under his wing. Do not expect there to be a true first and second line in terms of ice time, as they will most likely be deployed equally.
Even strength lines
Forward lines
There will be a few changes this year that might raise some eyebrows, but change is part of hockey, and it’s part of the Kraken striving to get better. Forward lines will change a lot during the course of the season, but here’s a combination we could see Bylsma trying at some point.
Beniers on the second line? The truth is Beniers scored only 37 points last year, which is not great for a first-line center. At the moment, Stephenson is the best center on the roster, and until Beniers or Wright develops past him, he will be on the first line.
With Wright making the team this year, he needs to play some sheltered minutes and be put in a position to score with wingers that can help contribute. A third-line role is perfect for this, and Jaden Schwartz and Eeli Tolvanen have good shots and solid forechecking skills that can contribute to Wright succeeding. Tye Kartye, Brandon Tanev, and Yanni Gourde are players people love to watch because of their hustle and grinding style of play. They will do well as a change-of-pace line that can put the other team on its heels.
Defensive pairings
The defense pairs are easier to work out as there are fewer lines and players. Larsson and Dunn have played well together during the first three years of Kraken hockey, and there is little reason to break them up. We foresee Montour sliding into a second pairing with Oleksiak. Will Borgen, who led the Kraken defense in hits last year will play a stay-at-home defensive role and allow Evans to continue to develop his puck moving skills.
Wrap up
Line combinations will be fluid as chemistries are found and the new Kraken coaching staff experiments with what works and what doesn’t. Without a doubt, the forward lines are all improved for the upcoming season. The question is if the Kraken as a whole have improved enough to sneak into a playoff spot.
If you have any thoughts on the Kraken lines, please share them below in the comments. You can follow me on the X at @blaizg.
The World Junior Summer Showcase is an event I have circled on my calendar each year. After several long weeks without hockey, it’s an oasis in the desert. It heralds the start of a new hockey season.
What is the World Junior Summer Showcase? It’s an exhibition of top under-20 players hosted by the United States National Team in Plymouth, Mich. Participating countries play a handful of games against each other in a round robin format starting in the last week of July.
While there is no trophy on the line at the showcase, it serves as a vital summer benchmark for national teams in evaluating their players before they disperse to their club teams in the fall. In the months ahead, teams will make their final roster decisions before reconvening in December for the World Junior Championship.
The showcase holds appeal beyond the World Juniors too. For draftniks, the showcase features a handful of premier 17-year-old prospects we’ll see selected in spring. And, for those of us in the Pacific Northwest, this year’s event highlighted several Seattle Kraken drafted prospects in prominent roles.
What did we see at the event and specifically from the Seattle Kraken prospects? Let’s dive in.
2024 World Junior Summer Showcase overview
Four teams participated in the 2024 World Junior Summer Showcase. Canada returned to the showcase after a multi-year absence, joining the United States, Sweden, and Finland. Canada and the United States maintained split-squad game rosters to begin their respective training camps, which they whittled down to a single team for the final few games of the showcase. Canada spent the majority of the last two weeks at its camp in Windsor, Ontario, before playing games in Plymouth on August 2 and 3.
The showcase featured 112 drafted players. The Seattle Kraken had six prospects play in games, second only to the Philadelphia Flyers who had seven players at the event. Overall, 31 NHL teams had players in Plymouth; only Edmonton didn’t have a player there.
In addition, each country roster had at least a few draft-eligible players. For example, Team USA played five players who may hear their names called in the 2025 NHL Draft, including James Hagens, Logan Hensler, and L.J. Mooney.
Seattle Kraken prospects at the showcase
Finland brought three Kraken players, goalie Visa Vedenpää, goalie Kim Saarinen, and forward Julius Miettinen. Vedenpää played in the 2023 showcase. Sweden brought forward Zeb Forsfjäll, who also participated last year. Canada played defenseman Caden Price and forward Berkly Catton in its showcase games and also had Carson Rehkopf at its training camp, but did not bring him to Plymouth for the main event.
Berkly Catton, F, Canada
Catton, Seattle’s 2024 first-round pick, carried over his strong play at Kraken Development Camp into the World Junior Summer Showcase. He only played one showcase game–Canada’s marquee contest against the United States–but his pace, problem solving, and passing stood out even against this elite competition. There are technical aspects of his skating he can continue to refine, but his legs and brain are at a different level than his peers. Particularly on the power play and in 3-on-3 overtime, he was a threat every time he touched the puck.
I thought Catton was Canada’s best skater at the showcase. Several prominent analysts, including Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler, agreed.
Summer verdict: Catton is well regarded in Canada. Notably, he was the captain of Team Canada’s U18 team at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup last year. But, coming into the showcase, I wasn’t sure what to make of Catton’s World Juniors prospects given his small stature and relative youth as an “underager”–meaning he is age eligible for not only the 2025 World Junior Championship but the 2026 tournament as well. Now, I’m virtually certain Catton makes Canada’s World Juniors roster and plays a top-six scoring forward role. Particularly since Canada is likely to be without Macklin Celebrini, Catton projects as a vital piece.
Caden Price, D, Canada
Canada brought a total of 11 bubble defensemen to the showcase, and Price, Seattle’s 2023 third-round pick, figures somewhere into the middle or bottom of that grouping talent-wise. Price activates well and flashes talent in the offensive zone, but his play-to-play consistency isn’t quite there yet, in my opinion. And he gets caught puck watching and chasing too much in the defensive zone for my liking.
Summer verdict: There are a lot of tools here, and he looks a lot more physical this year than he did at this time last year. But, absent a production breakout this fall, I don’t think he’s shown enough to make Team Canada’s talented WJC roster.
Carson Rehkopf, F, Canada
Rehkopf, a 2023 second-round pick, carried his scoring prowess from the OHL into Team Canada training camp, potting three goals in two games in Windsor, Ontario–including one off a slick assist from Catton.
From Canada camp, #SeaKraken Catton and Rehkopf (on an assist from Catton) scored, helping Canada Team Red to a scrimmage win yesterday; Team Red plays Sweden today (7/31).
In Plymouth, Finland plays a consolidated Team USA at 1 pm PT today; Miettinen draws in; Vedenpaa in goal. pic.twitter.com/OXPxdKCH1g
Rehkopf continues to be a lethal off-puck, spot-up shooter–like a corner wing player in the NBA. Add to that some solid skill transitioning the puck into the offensive zone, and you have a player primed for another big offensive season. (Rehkopf will likely play this coming year with the Brampton Steelheads after an August 6 trade from Kitchener.)
Rehkopf, who is a veteran of the 2024 World Juniors, did not accompany Team Canada when it de-camped for Plymouth. I view this as a strong indication that he is a virtual roster lock for the main team in December.
Summer verdict: He’s on Team Canada and in a top-six role. Canada looked at one line combination in camp that put him next to Catton. I’m sure Kraken fans would love to see that in December (and beyond).
Visa Vedenpää, G, Finland
Vedenpää, Seattle’s 2023 sixth-round pick, played in last year’s showcase alongside another Kraken goalie prospect Niklas Kokko. Kokko took control of the starting job at the 2023 showcase and carried that momentum into the 2024 World Juniors, where he was the clear starter to begin the event.
Vedenpää started three of five games at this year’s showcase, winning one of three decisions and saving 83 of 96 shots against. On the plus side, he almost single-handedly stole a win from Team USA in which USA outshot Finland 42 to 26 and even more thoroughly dominated the high-danger opportunities. On the other hand, Vedenpää was pulled from his last start against Canada after conceding seven goals in just over two periods. Overall, the raw numbers don’t look good, but I think that was more about Finland’s defensive stuggles than poor play from Vedenpää
While Vedenpää has a solid shot at Team Finland’s roster for the 2025 World Juniors, his club play this fall will go a long way toward deciding whether he has a chance to be the starter. He has a chance to earn Liiga ice time this fall with Kärpät.
Summer verdict: Vedenpää should make the 2025 World Juniors roster. I’ll predict Eemil Vinni gets the first start for Finland, while Vedenpää is a threat to take the job if Vinni struggles. Regardless, Vedenpää should get at least one start in pool play. Noa Vali is the other goalie contender here.
Kim Saarinen, G, Finland
Saarinen, fresh off signing an entry-level contract with the Kraken, started Finland’s last showcase game against the United States. He picked up a win, saving 17 of 20 shots in that game. He also saved all seven shots he faced when entering another game in relief of Finland’s other goalie, Veeti Louhivaara.
Like Vedenpää, Saarinen has his sights set on earning playing time in Liiga this coming season. But it is worth noting that Saarinen is an “underage” prospect in World Juniors parlance. 14 months younger than Vedenpää, Saarinen is likely a stronger candidate for the 2026 tournament, but a dominant fall could accelerate his timeline.
Summer verdict: Saarinen probably won’t be an active goaltender at the 2025 World Juniors. It’s possible, but I’d say still unlikely, he’s there as a third goaltender on the roster. Looking forward to the 2026 event, he’s a leading contender to start.
Julius Miettinen, F, Finland
Similar to Saarinen, Miettinen is age-eligible for the next two World Junior Championships. Miettinen, a second-round pick this past draft, began the showcase as a healthy scratch, before drawing in for two games midway through the showcase. He didn’t look out of place, but he also didn’t make an immediate impact.
This quiet play didn’t surprise me. At this point in his development, Miettinen plays a complimentary game. He does his best work on the forecheck and creating space and opportunity for his linemates off the puck. If he is going to take the next step, he needs to be a little more comfortable possessing the puck on controlled exits and entries and driving play in the offensive zone. This is what I’ll be watching for this fall with Everett.
Summer verdict: Like Saarinen, Miettinen likely won’t be on Team Finland this year but is a strong contender for the 2026 squad.
Zeb Forsfjäll, C, Sweden
Forsfjäll has been a fixture on Sweden’s international teams for years, played in the 2024 World Junior Championship, and brings 75 games of SHL experience. That said, Seattle’s 2023 sixth-round pick is more of an elite glue guy than a high-end talent. He can take difficult defensive matchups, win face-offs, and kill penalties. And, at this year’s showcase, he earned time as the bumper player on Sweden’s first power play unit too.
All told, Forsfjäll is a key figure for Sweden–even if he doesn’t figure to add much offensively. He donned the “C” as Sweden’s captain in the team’s showcase finale against rival Finland and wore the “A” as an alternate captain in other contests.
Summer verdict: He’ll be on the World Juniors team, likely in a leadership position. Just don’t expect many points.
Showcase takeaways
Buium shines. While Catton was Canada’s best player at the showcase, in my opinion, U.S. defenseman Zeev Buium was the best player overall at the event. Many had linked Buium to the Kraken in the 2024 NHL Draft–myself included–but Seattle bypassed the defender in favor of Catton. Buium will likely be the No. 1 defenseman for the United States at the World Junior Championship.
U.S. team looks strong. This wasn’t the unanimous takeaway among analysts, but the U.S. looks like the favorite at the 2025 World Junior Championship to me. Even if the San Jose Sharks don’t release center Will Smith to play in December, the U.S. talent pool at forward is impressive, headlined by returning stars Gabe Perreault and Ryan Leonard. Some have questions about the team’s depth at center and on defense, but I don’t view those areas as significant weaknesses. In any event, I think the squad scores its way out of any problems. The U.S. has never repeated as champions at the World Juniors. Coming off their 2024 tournament win, this team has a chance to make history.
Canada needs a boost. Beyond Catton, there weren’t many players in a Canadian uniform generating instant offense by themselves. Underager Gavin McKenna–who’ll be barely 17 years old at the time of the World Juniors–could be a crucial piece for Canada if he’s on the team. Canada also needs one of its goaltenders to step up and seize the role. Carson Bjarnason took a step in that direction with a solid performance against the United States in the showcase finale.
Up next: The Hlinka Gretzky Cup
What’s next in the hockey world? Before players report to their club teams in a few weeks, there is one major international tournament on the schedule–the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. This late-summer tournament features under-18 players and is an important pre-season level-setting look at prospects for the NHL Draft in the spring.
While there aren’t any drafted prospects at this tournament, there are local connections. Braeden Cootes, a 5-foot-10 forward on Team Canada, plays with the Seattle Thunderbirds. Cootes totaled 14 goals and 21 assists in 64 games for Seattle last season. Likewise, Jackson Smith, a 6-foot-3 defenseman on Canada’s roster, plays for the Tri-City Americans. Smith amassed eight goals and 21 assists in 62 games for Tri-City this past year. Ondrej Stebetak, a 6-foot-2 goaltender on Czechia’s roster, plans to play for the Portland Winterhawks this coming season after playing junior hockey in his home country previously.
The puck dropped at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup on Monday, and the games continue all week. NHL Network is carrying select games in the United States.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
