Shortly after the bell rang opening free agency, the Seattle Kraken reportedly signed right-shot defenseman Justin Schultz. There has not yet been an official announcement from the team.
What is the deal?
According to Elliotte Friedman, Schultz has signed a two-year deal, in the neighborhood of $3 million AAV.
UPDATE: The team confirmed that the AAV is $3 million at 3:17 pm on July 13, 2022.
Evolving Hockey projects Justin Schultz at approximately replacement level in 2022-23, but he has contributed positive value as a power play quarterback, which is a need for the Kraken.
The Kraken’s right-shot defense NHL depth chart looks like this:
Adam Larsson
Will Borgen
Cale Fleury (received qualifying offer)
The Kraken were lacking a top-four right-shot defenseman. It was a priority to add one this offseason, as we wrote about yesterday. With Schultz added to that mix, Will Borgen and Cale Fleury are left to compete for the third-pairing role. Schultz may not be an elite producer any longer, but there is a reasonable chance that he provides solid second-pairing production. The Kraken need more transition and passing skill on the blue line. These are Justin Schultz’s strengths.
This has been and will continue to be an extremely busy couple of weeks for the Seattle Kraken. They followed up an awesome draft by bringing all their prospects in for development camp, which remains underway. That camp coincides with the deadline for qualifying restricted free agents (Seattle opted not to offer contracts to Ryan Donato, Haydn Fleury, Daniel Sprong, or Dennis Cholowski). It also coincides with free agency opening on Wednesday.
With all this in mind, John, Andy, and Darren try to talk you off the ledge a bit about the players that are (likely) not being brought back by trying to help you understand the big picture of these decisions. An important piece of that is the many quality players that will be available in free agency, so they also help you prep for that.
Also on this episode, the guys will take a journey around the league to bring you up to speed on decision (trades, qualifying offers, etc.) that are being made around the league.
With Shane Wright on board, restricted free agent qualifying offer decisions made, and unrestricted free agency less than a day away, it is a good time to simulate the approach the Kraken may take to free agency. Let’s get to it.
What do the Kraken need?
The Kraken have repeatedly stated that the team’s goal is to compete for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Assuming this to be true, at a macro-level, the Kraken need to add goal scoring. John Barr’s research indicates that the Kraken need to add approximately 46 goals scored this coming year to be in a position to compete for the playoffs. This assumes a modest bounce back from Seattle’s goaltenders and consistent defensive play.
Looking at the NHL roster, I see four clear needs: a top-nine LW, a top-nine RW, a top-four RD, and a backup goalie. Beyond that, the Kraken could also potentially use a depth center (like Riley Sheahan).
1 – Left wing
The left wing depth chart is fairly clear: Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz, and Brandon Tanev are a solid group, but, after non-tendering Ryan Donato, another skater is needed.
2 – Right wing
The right wing depth chart in particular is fairly muddled. Jordan Eberle sits at the top. Shane Wright could factor into the mix on the wing should he earn a permanent spot in Seattle, but that is no sure thing. Joonas Donskoi and recently re-signed Karson Kuhlman could factor into the bottom-six, but neither is a sure thing given Donskoi’s poor 2021-22 season (and apparent skills mismatch to the Kraken system) and Kuhlman’s low salary. Kole Lind could also factor in here, though he may fit best as a fourth liner or extra skater at this stage. Perhaps one could argue that depth chart is full. But, as is, it is not good enough. And there is far too much uncertainty after Eberle. As I describe below, I imagine Donskoi off the roster in some way, but he could equally take a bottom-six role.
3 – Right defense
The right defenseman depth chart has veteran Adam Larsson at the top but no clear second-pair option. Will Borgen proved capable of third-pair minutes, but we would be surprised if the Kraken are willing to assign him a bigger role quite yet. Cale Fleury held his own, but is likely best fit in the sixth- or seventh-defender role. This leaves an opening for a top-four capable right-shot defender.
4 – Backup goalie
Chris Driedger is recovering ACL surgery and will not be an option for the Kraken until February or March at the earliest. Joey Daccord will receive the opportunity to compete for the backup role, but Ron Francis has indicated that the Kraken would like to bring in a veteran to compete here too. This is in addition to the goalies the Kraken will need to sign to fill out the Coachella Valley roster.
Identifying and bidding on players
I used analytics from Evolving Hockey, TopDownHockey, and Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic to determine a list of targets in the three skater “need” categories (i.e., we like players A-E to fill a top-nine left-wing role). Then I used insights from those analytics and my own lay scouting and “fit” judgments to arrange those players into a priority list for each need (i.e., approach player A before player B). I then used the analytics and modified for injury history to build a “max offer,” both in terms of years and term for each player (i.e., offer player A up to X dollars over X years).
To determine whether a free agent would accept my offer, I used Evolving Hockey’s contract predictor tool, which continues to be unsettlingly accurate. Acceptance or rejection of a proposed framework is based on the total cash value of the offer, as this is typically the most important factor to the player.
To Johnny or not to Johnny?
With that, it is time to get to the elephant in the room: Should the Kraken bid on Johnny Gaudreau? At first, my answer was “no.” In general, I’m not a fan of spending money in unrestricted free agency; so why go for the most expensive item at the auction? This is particularly true when you are (mock) managing a team that finished near the bottom of the standings.
As we approach free agency, two facts have led me to re-evaluate my gut reaction. First, Johnny Gaudreau falls into the category of a truly special player that rarely makes it to unrestricted free agency. He easily projects as a top-10 player in the league next year in the analytics I track and should remain a clear top-30 performer for at least the next several years. Even if his peak performance is behind him, players that produce like Gaudreau hold value into their mid-30’s. In short, Johnny Hockey is a star. And it’s almost impossible to overpay a star. Teams get in trouble when they throw too much money at the next tier of performers.
Second, Shane Wright’s presence on the roster—and his potential to provide top-six value while playing on an entry-level contract—frees the team to be aggressive in using its cap space to pursue one more top-six player in search of a playoff spot.
For these reasons, I’m now a “yes” on calling Johny Gaudreau’s agent to explore the potential for a fit in Seattle.
Step one: bid on a scoring left winger on day one of free agency
Free agency starts with a call to Johnny Gaudreau. In my projection below, the Kraken would offer enough money to get him signed, but this will probably be true of many teams. Gaudreau’s interest, or lack thereof, is a key inflection point. If he is signable, the Kraken may need to seek a value option on the right side or forego an acquisition there entirely. Gaudreau’s decision is important enough that at the end of this post I will ultimately provide two free agency scenarios: one with and one without Johnny Hockey.
I think Gaudreau will receive Evolving Hockey’s projected contract (of approximately seven years, $10.9 million AAV) from several teams. So it will come down to to Gaudreau’s preference. Personally, I do not think he would pick Seattle, all things equal. He and his wife are from the East Coast and are just starting a family. If he leaves Calgary, I think Philadelphia, New Jersey, or a few other Eastern Conference teams are more likely. To be competitive, I think the Kraken would need to be the highest offer. Accordingly, for the “Gaudreau scenario,” I will be using a seven-year, $11.75 million AAV contract. This deal checks in just above Artemi Panarin and just below Auston Matthews. But it still yields positive value based on my analytics study.
In the “no Johnny Gaudreau” scenario, I’d move onto negotiations with Andre Burakovsky. Based on Evolving Hockey’s numbers, it would very quickly become clear that Burakovsky can get more money elsewhere, which is too bad. In real life, part of me thinks Burakovsky’s market could be weakened by a mediocre postseason run that is fresh in the minds of NHL front offices. I call this getting “Tomas Tatar’d.”
Accepting the premise I have set up, however, I would then move onto negotiations with Dylan Strome and Mason Marchement. Strome could get done but would be a close negotiation, and a Marchment deal could come together quickly. For this reason, I’ll project a Marchment signing in the “no Johnny Gaudreau” scenario.
Step two: acquire a value right winger
It remains likely that Jesse Puljujarvi is ultimately traded from Edmonton. He would be a strong compliment to the smaller, skill-oriented players the Kraken currently deploy in their top-six forward group, particularly in the “Gaudreau” scenario. I think he could emerge as a key Valeri Nichushkin-lite contributor with the Kraken. I’d offer Seattle’s 2023 third-round pick or Toronto’s 2023 second-round pick, if necessary. The cap-strapped Oilers don’t seem like they have any better offers in hand. (Warren Foegle is another interesting player who could be squeezed out of Edmonton.)
For this exercise, I will assume that Edmonton is ultimately willing to accept this offer. If this trade were not possible, however, I’d prioritize signing Evan Rodrigues, who may be squeezed out of Pittsburgh.
In the “Johnny Gaudreau” scenario it may not be possible to sign one of those forwards. In that scenario I’d consider “over-spending” on a lower-end player like Nicolas Aube-Kubel. Or the Kraken could bring back Colin Blackwell.
Step three: acquire a defenseman who can play on the right side
The second major name at times linked to the Seattle Kraken is John Klingberg. My analytics projection has a high-end offer for him at three years, $4 million AAV. Given that Klingberg may achieve something closer to his Evolving Hockey projection of 6 years, $6.9 million AAV, I’m a strong “no” on being a serious competitor for Klingberg.
All of that said, I understand Klingberg’s fit with Seattle: He’s a right-handed, offensive play-driving defenseman with the ability to lead a first unit power play. Seattle needs all of these things. So, could I be convinced that something like four years, $5 million AAV could work? Perhaps. But I’m completely “out” on Klingberg at his Evolving Hockey projected contract. That could be a crippling mistake.
The list of free agent forwards is fairly deep, but the number of competent blueliners is much shorter, particularly on the right side. This renders another trade as the best option. As with Puljujarvi, Ethan Bear was tendered by Carolina, but it seems like a separation is ultimately likely. Seattle’s 2023 fourth-round pick could be enough to get it done. Rasmus Sandin is an alternative trade candidate who could get squeezed out of the picture in Toronto, but he’s a left shot and not as easy of a fit.
I’ll project that the trades do not get done. This may be because the Kraken prefer to avoid sending out draft assets for another RFA. Accordingly, I turn my attention to free agency, where the first target is Kelowna, British Columbia native Justin Schultz. He could bring some puck moving ability on the right side of a second pair. This deal comes together. Jan Rutta is another right shot defenseman who could be an alternative, but I prefer Schultz’s puck-moving profile.
Step four: sign a backup goaltender
I’ll keep this one simple. Jaroslav Halak could be a good fit. He played in Vancouver last year and provided solid production, with a .903 save percentage and approximately average goals saved above expected.
Other transactions: sign a depth center and look for a Donskoi taker
As mentioned above, I think Donskoi is a scheme mismatch in Seattle, and I would look for a taker if the Kraken are successful in adding to their right wing depth chart. I would be willing to retain some salary to facilitate a deal, but I would not be willing to attach a significant asset to Donskoi simply to clear his cap from the books. I’ll project that they find a trade partner willing to take Donskoi’s full salary with minimal other assets involved in the deal.
In terms of a depth center, I could see the team bringing back Riley Sheahan to play in Coachella Valley and a handful of games in the bottom-six. Alternatives could be Victor Rask or Curtis Lazar. Morgan Geekie needs to take a step forward this year or he could be displaced by one of these veterans in the event of a playoff push.
Recapping the “Johnny Gaudreau” scenario
Transactions
Sign UFA LW Johnny Gaudreau (seven years, $11.75 million AAV)
Sign UFA RW Nicolas Aube-Kubel (two years, $2 million AAV)
Trade away RW Joonas Donskoi
Sign UFA RD Justin Schultz (two years, $2.75 million AAV)
Sign UFA G Jaroslav Halak (one year, $1.5 million AAV)
Sign UFA C Riley Sheahan (one year, $950,000 AAV)
Cap chart (Capfriendly)
The team’s cap situation is a little tight, and particularly so if a Donskoi trade is impossible without salary retention. They could get some relief before the deadline if activating Chris Driedger allows the team to move Jaroslav Halak’s cap hit off the roster. But with contingency signings, it is very possible this team would end up needing to put Driedger on long-term injured reserve. Shane Wright plays on the right wing in his rookie season, learning to add a bit of sandpaper and tenacity to his game from Yanni Gourde.
Projected team performance (JFresh Hockey)
I used JFresh Hockey’s roster builder tool to then project this team’s performance. One note before diving in: Matty Beniers and Shane Wright do not have enough experience to be built into this system. In the projections below, I used Nico Hischier as a proxy for Matty Beniers. I used Calle Jarnkrok as a proxy for Shane Wright’s potential rookie production because Jarnkrok’s 2021 production was a close comparable to Elias Lindholm’s rookie campaign, and I think Elias Lindholm’s rookie season is a reasonable projection for Shane Wright’s first year.
This is a good team; probably a playoff team. Gaudreau solves much of the Kraken’s even-strength and power-play scoring issues. Signing Gaudreau, together with the other additions listed here, likely achieves John Barr’s target of adding 46 goals scored to this team.
Recapping the “no Gaudreau” scenario
Transactions
Sign UFA LW Mason Marchment (three years, $2.5 million AAV)
Trade for and sign RFA RW Jesse Puljujarvi (two years, $4.2 million AAV)
Trade away RW Joonas Donskoi
Sign UFA RD Justin Schultz (two years, $2.75 million AAV)
Sign UFA G Jaroslav Halak (one year, $1.5 million AAV)
Sign UFA C Riley Sheahan (one year, $950,000 AAV)
Cap chart (Capfriendly)
Here, again, Shane Wright is placed on the right wing. If sent down to the CHL, Lind would likely move into the lineup. Alternatively, Geekie could move to the wing with Sheahan drawing in on the fourth line. Ideally Puljujarvi could be signed for less on a bridge deal, but Evolving Hockey projects a deal above $4 million AAV.
Projected team performance (JFresh Hockey)
This team projects well, though not quite as well as the team with Gaudreau. It carries more flexibility into the future, but nonetheless has the look of a borderline playoff team. Again, 2021 Nico Hischier subs for the projected performance of 2022 Matty Beniers and 2021 Calle Jarnkrok subs for the projected performance of 2022 Shane Wright.
Ultimately, this version of the Kraken may not have added quite enough goal scoring to get all the way to the playoffs. I expect Shane Wright could deliver a net gain of 10 goals scored over Joonas Donskoi. If he is sent down to the CHL, though, this would be a wash. Puljujarvi scored 14 goals last year and Marchment scored 18 goals. All together, even an optimistic view would likely fall short of John Barr’s target for goal scoring. But this is a young, competitive team, with upside to be in the race at the trade deadline.
What do you think? Send us your free agency predictions on Twitter or in the comments below.
The Seattle Kraken signaled they were going to be major players in NHL free agency when they chose not to qualify restricted free agents Haydn Fleury, Dennis Cholowski, Daniel Sprong, and Ryan Donato. This is consistent with the theme of being “aggressive” in free agency, which we continued to hear was the plan from general manager Ron Francis toward the end of the regular season. The Kraken are now armed with the cap space and roster spots to target some of the higher-end players available. Based on roster projections, we believe the Kraken will add at least two top-six forwards and one defenseman. Let’s look at some of the top free agents the Kraken may target on Wednesday when free agency opens in the NHL.
Free agent forwards
Johnny Gaudreau
Gaudreau is a unicorn. This type of player rarely makes it to free agency, and he is the cream of the crop in this year’s free agent group. He is coming off his best season ever with 40 goals and 75 assists. Gaudreau will have many suitors, but there is only a handful of teams that have the cap space to pay him the $10+ million dollars times seven years that is expected out of his next deal. As a fit, Gaudreau would be perfect for Seattle, but the 28-year-old winger may seek out a more immediate cup contender.
Need fit: 10/10
Likelihood of signing with Seattle: low
Ondrej Palat
Palat is an outstanding playmaker that can score goals. He has a knack for scoring when the team needs a goal the most, which includes the 2022 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. It will still be a surprise to see Palat reach free agency, but we are less than 24 hours away, and it looks like he will hit the market. Palat would be another great piece for the Kraken and plays a strong two-way game that the team values.
Strome is another forward coming off a career year for the New York Rangers. He plays a very versatile game and has been steady for the Rangers. He is not flashy but can play on the power play and penalty kill, which the Kraken desperately need to improve. Strome fits the DNA of the type of player the Kraken value, a two-way, defensively responsible player. If the Kraken do not land the Johnny Gaudreau unicorn, the Kraken will need to add goal scoring by committee.
Need fit: 8/10
Likelihood: medium
Andre Burakovsky
Burakovsky scores goals. He has a great shot and sometimes gets a reputation of being a bit one dimensional, but his underlaying defensive metrics this season are sound. There is always a concern his contributions are overstated by playing with such a powerhouse team like the Colorado Avalanche. 2021-22 was a career high in goals scored for the 27-year-old, but the rate in which he scores goals has been consistent in prior seasons. The Kraken need goal scoring and Burakovsky fits the profile.
It is rare that a player is traded away at the trade deadline, only to return to his old team the following season. Jarnkrok had a rough start in his time in Seattle with COVID and an injury, but he eventually got the puck to bounce his way. He was the classic two-way forward that this team values. Unfortunately for Jarnkrok, his success in Seattle did not translate to success in Calgary. If the Kraken aim to add three forwards in free-agency, Jarnkrok would make a lot of sense.
Need fit: 7/10
Likelihood: good
Free agent defensemen
John Klingberg
Klingberg is the Johnny Gaudreau of the defensive free agent crop. He is hands down the best available in a thin defense market and will certainly get paid for his services. Klingberg is expected to sign a seven-year deal in the range of $6.5 million a year. The smooth-skating offensive-minded defenseman would be a sight for sore eyes in Seattle. The strength of the Kraken is their top-four defensemen, but they could use a bit more offense. Klingberg would undoubtedly step into quarterbacking the first power play unit.
Need fit: 9/10
Likelihood: good
Colin Miller
If the Kraken lose the Klingberg sweepstakes or just look to be more responsible in their spending, they could look to add another depth defenseman. Miller fits the profile and is probably the most likely candidate in this tier. The 29-year-old defenseman is a solid player that would fit well on the third pair and provide the Kraken some contingency if one of their few right-shot defensemen goes down with an injury.
Need fit: 9/10
Likelihood: medium
It is important to remember that there will be a lot of teams bidding on these players in free agency, and the probability of landing one specific player is mathematically low. Seattle’s advantage is that they have the cap space to pay for these players, and Washington State is one of the few NHL markets with no state income taxes. No matter what happens, it will be a fascinating free agency period to watch. Enjoy it.
The Seattle Kraken announced they have extended qualifying offers to six out of their ten restricted free agents on Monday. Karson Kuhlman (signed), Morgan Geekie, Kole Lind, Alexander True, Carsen Twarynski, and Cale Fleury all received their qualifying offers, while Ryan Donato, Haydn Fleury, Daniel Sprong, and Dennis Cholowski did not.
A qualifying offer is simply a starting point, and depending on the player’s previous contract, there are different requirements for what must be offered. Teams had to extend qualifying offers to any restricted free agent by Monday’s 2 p.m. Pacific deadline to retain their negotiation rights. Since Donato, Fleury, Sprong, and Cholowski did not receive qualifying offers, they will become unrestricted free agents when NHL free agency opens on Wednesday.
RFA forwards receiving qualifying offers
Karson Kuhlman seemed to hit his stride and fit in very well with the Seattle Kraken after getting claimed off waivers in January from Boston. Kuhlman will not impress you with his statistics, but the speedy winger plays a strong two-way game and became a regular on the penalty kill. He signed his deal, so he is back for at least one more year at $825K.
Morgan Geekie might not have had the season he wanted but still had seven goals in 73 games and at times showed the potential that a lot of folks expect out of this 23-year-old forward. Geekie was on a one-year $750,000 contract and is now expected to get a pay increase with a multi-year deal.
Kole Lind is an interesting one. Prior to this season, Lind had not played a full season since 2019-20 when he was with the Utica Comets. He spent much of the 2021-22 season with the Kraken’s temporary AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers. He put up 17 goals in 46 games before getting called up to Seattle in late March. The 23-year-old has potential, and the 2022-23 season should be a big indicator of his future at the NHL level.
Former Seattle Thunderbird Alex True, has had success at the AHL level, but that has not yet translated to the NHL. True had 42 points over 60 games while playing for the Charlotte Checkers this year but did not register a point in the eight games he played with the Kraken during the 2021-22 campaign.
Carsen Twarynski played the entire season with the Charlotte Checkers and amassed 18 points in 71 games.
Unqualified forwards
Ryan Donato signed a one-year $750,000 deal right before training camp last fall. He had a strong 2021-22 season with the Kraken, netting 16 goals over 74 games played. Donato was arbitration eligible and was due for a significant pay bump this offseason, but with Seattle expecting to be active in free agency, our thought is the team no longer foresees a need for him up front.
Daniel Sprong came to Seattle by way of a trade-deadline deal involving Marcus Johansson going to Washington. Sprong scored six goals over 16 games with Seattle, which was tied for the most goals on the team since it acquired him on March 21. We weren’t terribly surprised he didn’t receive a QO.
RFA defensemen receiving qualifying offers
Cale Fleury was the top scoring defenseman on the Checkers this year. He had 33 points in 58 games including seven goals. The younger Fleury was a late-season callup to Seattle, and although he did not register a point, he looked like he was plenty capable of being a regular NHL player.
Unqualified defensemen
Haydn Fleury was a rostered Seattle Kraken player all season but only got in 36 games of the 82. Part of the reason for the low participation was injuries, but more commonly, he was a healthy scratch, crowded out of the Kraken’s overstaffed blue line.
Dennis Cholowski was an original Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft selection. The Washington Capitals claimed Cholowski off waivers when the Kraken were trying to assign him to Charlotte at the beginning of the season. He would only get in seven games in Washington, before going back on waivers, getting re-claimed by Seattle, and finally being assigned to Charlotte. He did get recalled for four games with the Kraken down the stretch.
For the players that were not qualified, they will enter free agency as unrestricted free agents. NHL free agency opens Wednesday at 9 a.m. Pacific time.
After an eventful draft for the Seattle Kraken, the team’s prospect development camp gets underway at the Kraken Community Iceplex in Seattle on Monday. With qualifying offers due just a couple hours after that, and NHL free agency scheduled to open Wednesday, July 13, at 9:00 am Pacific, it is an exciting time in a crucial offseason for the second-year expansion franchise.
But before looking forward, we wanted to quickly recap Seattle’s 2022 NHL Draft, with information from public scouting reports and the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Seattle drafted an astounding five players within the top-50 on the Big Board. No other team drafted more than four.
Player development is a long road, so it is a bit foolhardy to reach any conclusions in the days after the draft. But the Kraken’s performance against the Big Board is notable given the strong performance of the Big Board as a predictive tool overall. The Big Board accurately “predicted” 28 of 32 first-rounders, and the player listed No. 32, Owen Beck, was selected with the first pick of the second round (No. 33). The other three players that “fell” out of the Big Board’s top 32 were No. 26 Jagger Firkus (more on him in a minute), No. 29 Ryan Chesley (drafted No. 37 by the Capitals), and No. 30 Calle Odelius (drafted No. 65 by the New York Islanders).
I wrote profiles on four of their draft picks pre-draft. I would have written profiles on Seattle’s top two picks (Shane Wright and Firkus) as well if I thought there was any chance at all that those players would be available for the Kraken to select with their top two picks.
Where can I find public scouting reports on these players?
Pre-draft prospect write-ups are available at the links below:
Corey Pronman of The Athletic (link) ($$): 127 ranked prospects
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (link) ($$): 100 ranked prospects
Chris Peters of Daily Faceoff (link): 100 ranked prospects
Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet (link): 32 ranked prospects
Elite Prospects (link) (top 32 free; full list $$): 121 ranked prospects
McKeen’s (link) (top 32 free; full list $$): 224 ranked prospects
Tony Ferrari of Hockey News (link): 100 ranked prospects
Adam Herman of Bleacher Report (link): 32 ranked prospects
Age: 18 | Height: 6’0.5″ | Weight: 199 lbs | Right shot | 32 goals, 62 assists, 63 games played
What does the Big Board say?
The Sound Of Hockey Big Board loves Shane Wright at the fourth pick. Wright was No. 1 on the board, and it was not particularly close. He was No. 1 on 15 of 19 public boards that we tracked. And, he was No. 2 on the other four. He was also No. 1 in my analytics ranking. According to Elite Prospects, the Kraken have now walked away with the No. 1 overall prospect in back-to-back drafts.
What do the scouts say?
“With high-end hockey sense highlighted by his tremendous offensive intelligence, Shane Wright can make a lot of plays. While he lacks dynamic puck skills in terms of handling, he has one of the better shots in this draft class with a quick, deceptive release… He does a lot of the things you hope a center does in terms of puck possession, making plays and contributing in his own end.” – Chris Peters
Instant reaction
I tried to capture it on draft day. The potential Wright brings to this organization to contribute as a top-six forward during his entry-level contract—in tandem with Matty Beniers—could change everything. After day two of the draft, Ron Francis admitted that the potential to have Wright in the lineup this year or next impacts how the Kraken will approach free agency. As we look toward Wright’s prime, his statistical profile points us to Mathew Barzal or (perhaps a poor man’s) Steven Stamkos as career comparables.
On draft night, the media narrative about Shane Wright was one of disappointment. But just moments after being drafted, Wright sat down with Mike Morreale and Adam Kimelman of NHL.com and gave this mature and professional interview. This is remarkable stuff that speaks highly of his character. I’m looking forward to the Seattle community embracing this player.
Jagger Firkus ranked No. 26 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. He was the highest-ranked player available when the Kraken selected. Firkus’s highest ranking came from Chris Peters. Firkus was No. 21 in my analytics ranking. Getting Firkus at No. 35 was one of the best value picks in the top-50, even if the selection pales in comparison to the Wright selection.
What do the scouts say?
“He’ll likely never be a ‘big’ player, but with his game built on shifty, elusive routes, nifty pucks skills, strong vision and a wicked release, he won’t need to be. He will need to prove capable of handling the rigors of pro hockey where time and space are limited and dekes are less likely to work. If he can do that, then there is a top-six forward group waiting for him to add dynamic elements.” – Cam Robinson, EP Rinkside
Instant reaction
Before the draft I mentioned Firkus as a player I liked based on his analytics, but I did not write a profile on him because I did not think there was a real chance he would be there at No. 35. Of the 19 public boards we tabulated, not a single one ranked him below No. 34.
Firkus is a pure scoring wing. He has an elite shot, ranked in the top three in the draft by six of seven scouts on the Elite Prospects staff. Beyond that, Firkus knows how to score in a variety of creative ways at the junior level, by moving and positioning himself without the puck. Most tellingly, he frequently gets to the tough area of the ice directly in front of the goal despite weighing only 151 pounds.
Now, it is almost certainly true that Firkus will not be able to find success at the NHL level with such a slight frame, but if he can add 20 pounds, there is nothing to suggest that he will not continue to be able to find success despite being the “smallest guy” on the ice. Given the physical maturity that needs to come, scouts suggest Firkus is likely a couple years away from being able to contribute at the NHL level.
Recommended reading
Hey Kraken fans, get excited for Jagger Firkus.
An old school gunslinger with super slick mitts, and shifty exciting speed.
No. 49: Jani Nyman, LW, Ilves (Liiga)/ KOOVEE (Mestis)
Age: 17 | Height: 6’3.5″ | Weight: 217 lbs | Left shot | 18 goals, 17 assists, 34 games played for KOOVEE
What does the Big Board say?
Nyman was ranked No. 50 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. He was one of the more highly ranked players on my analytics chart when he was picked, checking in at No. 37 overall.
What do the scouts say?
“[Nyman’s] greatest asset is his shot. Give him time to load the puck for a wrister, snapshot, or one-timer, and chances are it’ll be in the back of the net. He just loves letting it rip and the velocity is incredibly impressive. He can also display some very nifty mitts and moves when he is in possession of the puck, looking like quite the skater with the puck too. Without it, he can be lumbering and disinterested. It’s almost as if he’s conserving energy for offensive opportunities only.” – McKeen’s
Instant reaction
I wrote about Nyman pre-draft as a player of interest. Nyman brings power forward size and the ability to use it to create scoring opportunities for himself. Nyman’s other standout skill is his shot, which grades solidly above average for most scouts. On the other hand, scouts report that Nyman needs to improve his off-puck skating game and learn to use his size to impact the game in other ways. Elite Prospects says: “The catch, of course, and this is common with players his size at his age, is that Nyman’s skating isn’t even close to an NHL average projection.” Between the size and scoring touch, Nyman’s upside is significant as a top-nine forward; but it also sounds like there is a fair chance he doesn’t get more than a cup of coffee in the NHL if the skating does not improve.
Recommended reading
2022 NHL DRAFT: FINLAND – Jani Nyman, LW, Koovee by @DraftLook
"The combination of a plus shot, a large frame, and decent instincts tends to be enough to form a solid middle-six scorer and role player, which would be good value for a second-round pick"https://t.co/wP6bN2DE3bpic.twitter.com/XokQ4FH0YF
Kokko was ranked No. 293 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board, only ranked by one public source, Future Considerations, at No. 182 overall.
What do the scouts say?
“[Kokko’s] game relies on consistency and standing primed for recovery, keeping as much of the top half of his net covered as possible even when he’s maintaining his edges and staying on his feet. There’s still a bit of a game-read lag . . . [and] it’s not likely that his hands will ever be the strongest part of his game.” – Elite Prospects
Instant reaction
Before the draft, I wrote that the Kraken could look to feed their pipeline of goaltenders, and pinpointed the three picks between No. 58 and No. 68 as a prime area where a selection could be made. According to scouts, Niklas Kokko is a Finnish goaltender well trained in the classic Finnish disciplined and reactive style but with significant work left to be done. Drafting goaltenders is difficult because the development path is typically quite long; but when “throwing a dart” at a goaltender, it is never a bad idea to aim for a player coached by Ari Hilli at Kärpät in the Finnish junior league (more on him below). You can see why the Kraken may have been willing to “go off the board” on this one. Kokko is signed in Finland through 2024-25. If all goes well with his development, he could come to North America after that.
Recommended reading
In a previous stop at The Athletic, Ryan Clark wrote a story discussing Kokko’s goaltending coach, Ari Hilli. Hilli is famous for his work with goalies at Kärpät, including several who have found success in North America, such as Niklas Backstrom, Tim Thomas, and Pekka Rinne.
No. 61: David Goyette, C/W, Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
Age: 18 | Height: 5’10.25″ | Weight: 175 lbs | Left shot | 33 goals, 40 assists, 66 games played
What does the Big Board say?
Goyette was No. 39 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board, with a high rank of No. 20 by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic. Goyette was also No. 33 in my analytics ranking.
What do the scouts say?
“Slow first half but had a strong [second] half of the season after barely playing last season. A very talented player with great skating skills and puck skills. I can’t help but think of Jonathan Drouin when I scouted him, a very similar style of play.” – Jérôme Bérubé, HockeyProspect.com
Instant reaction
Like Nyman, I profiled Goyette before the draft. Goyette led a very poor OHL team in scoring and rose in the eyes of most scouts over the course of his one season in the OHL. The only question was how high had he risen by the time of the draft. Goyette drives offense with his vision and passing as much as his shot. Some scouts note a game inclined toward the perimeter, so he might be a puck-handling winger long term (more like Jaden Schwartz or Jordan Eberle). Scouts also emphasize that his defense needs to come along, but there is nothing in his profile that should hold him back from being a better defender.
David Goyette’s my favourite prospect in this draft. Fast, skilled, tenacious. He’s going to light up the OHL next year and make the pick look darn good. https://t.co/Uis088tUJJ
Age: 18 | Height: 5’10” | Weight: 196 lbs | Right shot | 9 goals, 42 assists, 66 games played
What does the Big Board say?
Nelson checked in at No. 46 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board, with a high rank of No. 31 by DraftPros. McKeen’s had Nelson at No. 46. Nelson was No. 27 in my analytics ranking.
What do the scouts say?
“Early on, [Nelson] looked like one of, if not the best, offensive defender available this year. However, as the season progressed, some holes in his game became more obvious, and as OHL teams adjusted to him (and game planned for him), his overall impact decreased… These inconsistencies made Nelson a bit of a difficult player to assess and project this year. At times, he was aggressive in leading the attack, standing out as a puck mover. He has a booming point shot and this can be a major weapon for him as he quarterbacks the power play and works inside the blue line.” – McKeen’s
Instant reaction
Given his strong analytics, I wrote about Ty Nelson pre-draft too. Nelson is not tall, but he is physically mature, and scouts suggest he can play strong positionally and along the boards in the defensive zone. Outside his own end, scouts say he has above average movement skills, but needs to learn how to best harness them. He has the vision and shot to be a contributor on the power play. Reportedly, Nelson is also a charismatic team leader (more on that below). There are a lot of elements here, but it still needs to all “come together” for him.
Recommended viewing
No. 91: Ben MacDonald, C, Noble & Greenough School (HS MA)
Age: 18 | Height: 5’11.75” | Weight: 180 lbs | Left shot | 14 goals, 15 assists, 22 games played
What does the Big Board say?
MacDonald checked in at No. 136 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. MacDonald’s highest ranking came from Corey Pronman, who ranked the Massachusetts high schooler as his 76th prospect. MacDonald did not factor into my analytics rankings.
What do the scouts say?
“[MacDonald’s] not a burner but can create through the neutral zone with speed. He also shows the ability to slow the game down and create off the perimeter with his vision.” – Corey Pronman of The Athletic
Instant reaction
MacDonald is a potentially underexposed New England high school prospect, but the development runway is significant here. He will play next season with the West Kelowna Warriors in the BCHL. After that he’ll join the Harvard Crimson. MacDonald has good bloodlines though; his father Lane MacDonald won the Hobey Baker with Harvard. The Kraken clearly saw something to bet on here, as they packaged two draft picks to move up to draft him. (Per the trade value chart, the Kraken “won” the trade, by the way.)
Recommended reading
The Hockey Writers have collected a lot of the information that there is out there on MacDonald. Check it out here.
No. 100: Tyson Jugnauth, LD, West Kelowna Warriors (BCHL)
Age: 18 | Height: 6’0” | Weight: 161 lbs | Left shot | 9 goals, 41 assists, 52 games played
What does the Big Board say?
Jugnauth ranked No. 114 on the Big Board and No. 83 in my analytics rankings
What do the scouts say?
“Jugnauth is a slick skating, Wisconsin recruit who is a very effective puck mover. He uses linear crossovers well when leading transitional attacks, allowing him to disguise his intentions as he cuts through the neutral zone. When you combine that with his quick hands, it makes Jugnauth very effective at gaining the offensive zone.” – McKeen’s
Instant reaction
Jugnauth is the last of the Kraken’s draft picks that I wrote about pre-draft. His analytics portend an interesting offensive defenseman, and scouts credit his vision and transition play, in particular. But Jugnauth will need to add size and a physical edge to his game in order to hold up in his own zone. Jugnauth will play for the University of Wisconsin next year.
Age: 19 | Height: 5’10” | Weight: 190 lbs | Left shot | 41 goals, 40 assists, 68 games played
What does the Big Board say?
An over-age, re-entry candidate (after losing last year in the OHL), the Big Board has Robertson ranked at No. 128.
What do the scouts say?
“[Robertson is] an all-around player who brings great energy on each shift. He’s not afraid to go to dirty areas for redirections and rebounds. He has great hands along the boards and in tight and is able to control and protect the puck well in traffic.” – McKeens
No. 164: Barrett Hall, F, Gentry Academy (HS MN)
Age: 19 | Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 170 lbs | Left shot | 25 goals, 30 assists, 25 games played
What does the Big Board say?
Hall was not ranked on the Big Board.
What do the scouts say?
“Looking for a sleeper prospect? Look no further than Barrett Hall… Puck skills define Hall’s game. He’s a dexterous handler, moving his top hand across his body while he handles, reaching out to bait the poke check, then quickly retracting the puck to evade. Tricky passes are no issue for him, as he kicks pucks skate-to-stick and deflects them through his legs without entering a glide.” – Elite Prospects
No. 196: Kyle Jackson, LW/C, North Bay Battalion (OHL)
Age: 19 | Height: 6’2″ | Weight: 190 lbs | Left shot | 25 goals, 30 assists, 25 games played
What does the Big Board say?
Another over-age prospect who could join the AHL as soon as this year, Jackson was ranked No. 182 on the Big Board.
What do the scouts say?
Jackson is a “highly intelligent two-way center who was one of the most improved players in the OHL this year. Elevated his play even further in the OHL playoffs helping North Bay reach the East finals.” – McKeen’s
The NHL Entry Draft was fun, but even outside of that, this has been a very busy week around the NHL, with lots more excitement to come in the next few days. On this edition of Weekly One-Timers, we will take a look at several of the storylines that have been written this week and try to connect them to the Kraken. Oh, and we will give you some Kraken news, obvi.
Sit back, relax, and enjoy your One-Timers.
Seattle Kraken news
Perhaps this is hyperbole, but we think Seattle’s performance at Thursday and Friday’s draft could go down as one of those “huge moments in Kraken history” when we look back at it five or 10 years from now. We’ve had oodles of draft coverage on soundofhockey.com, so we won’t break it down too much more here, but we do want to say that we’re still in awe of the fact that Shane Wright dropped to Seattle at No. 4 overall.
Lump in Wright and other newly drafted players (like Jagger Firkus, David Goyette, Jani Nyman, et al) with last year’s picks (especially Matty Beniers, Ryker Evans, and Ryan Winterton), and the future of the Kraken is suddenly much brighter than it was just a few days ago.
The expanded Kraken prospect pool will be on full display for the team’s development camp at Kraken Community Iceplex starting Monday.
Here’s the schedule:
Monday, July 11
Doors open at 11:30 a.m., on-ice practice session approximately 12:00 p.m.-12:45 p.m.
Tuesday, July 12
Doors open at 10:45 a.m., on-ice practice session approximately 11:15 a.m.-12 p.m.
Wednesday, July 13
Doors open at 10:30 a.m., scrimmage approximately 11 a.m.-12 p.m
Thursday, July 14
Doors open at 9:45 a.m., on-ice practice session approximately 10:15 a.m.-11 a.m.
All sessions are open to the public, so swing by and be dazzled by Wright.
Filip Forsberg back to Nashville
Kraken general manager Ron Francis has indicated he intends to be aggressive in signing players that can rapidly improve his team when free agency opens on July 13. It’s debatable if now is the right time for this franchise to take swings at big-name, big-dollar players, but if Seattle is going to do that anyway, Filip Forsberg would have been our top target.
Instead, the 27-year-old star winger re-signed with the Predators for eight years at an $8.5 million cap hit on Saturday. That’s a fair deal for a guy that scored 84 points in 69 games last season, including this coast-to-coast banger against Seattle in January.
With Forsberg off the board, all eyes turn to players like Johnny Gaudreau, Nazem Kadri, and John Klingberg, who are expected to be available as of Wednesday. The Kraken are one of just a few teams with the cap space to sign big-time free agents… But should they?
Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach traded
The Chicago Blackhawks have made it clear they intend to be one of the worst teams in the league next season, with hopes of winning the NHL Draft Lottery and a chance to select generational talent Connor Bedard in the 2023 draft.
The returns were underwhelming, and the deals made us wonder what the plans are for veterans Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, who surely must be reaching the ends of their respective ropes.
We also wonder if Seattle inquired about DeBrincat, but the closest thing to a No. 7 pick that Francis could have given up would have been the No. 4 pick, which ultimately became Wright. So, we’re glad that didn’t happen.
Goalie market rapidly thinning
With Chris Driedger expected to miss most of the season with an ACL injury, Seattle is likely looking for a veteran backup to Philipp Grubauer. Since Driedger is under contract through 2023-24,our expectation is that the Kraken will want to find somebody reliable that will accept a one-year deal.
Scott Wedgewood and Casey DeSmith—two potential targets that could have fit that mold—re-signed with Dallas and Pittsburgh respectively, each on two-year deals. With those signings in mind, what level of quality can Seattle expect to find for just one year?
Additionally, Alexandar Georgiev was traded to Colorado, Ville Husso was traded to Detroit, former Kraken legend Vitek Vanecek was traded to New Jersey (the day before his wedding), and Marc-Andre Fleury went back to Minnesota. The MAF signing has apparently made Cam Talbot mad, but even if Talbot’s agent somehow talks Bill Guerin into trading him, there isn’t a fit for Talbot in Seattle.
So, who is left for the Kraken? We thought perhaps Braden Holtby, but there are reports out there that he may not play this season. We will discuss the backup goalie topic through a Kraken lens in more detail soon.
Around the boards
Kris Letang re-signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins for six years with a $6.1 million AAV. That’s a big contract for a 35-year-old defenseman. Some folks thought he was a fit for Seattle, but we’re glad the Kraken didn’t somehow end up making a deal like this for a player of this age.
Duncan Keith announced he will retire after 17 seasons. The two-time Norris Trophy winner notched 106 goals and 540 assists in 1,256 career games, and helped lead the Blackhawks to three Stanley Cups.
Bryan Marchment, a long-time NHLer and father of Panthers forward Mason Marchment, passed away suddenly and unexpectedly in Montreal, where he was traveling with the San Jose Sharks for the draft. New Sharks GM Mike Grier gave a nice statement about Marchment prior to San Jose’s first pick on Thursday. Our condolences to the Marchment family.
Minnesota Wild star Kirill Kaprizov could be in a bad situation in Russia. Read Michael Russo’s story in The Athletic for details, but there are rumors that he is wanted in his home country for allegedly purchasing a fake military ID. It is currently unclear if he will be allowed to return to the United States for next season.
The Western Hockey League had a strong showing at this week’s NHL Draft with 28 players selected. It was the second most – falling short of the OHL’s 35 picks – for all development leagues in the world. Locally, the U.S. Division had each of its five teams see a player selected.
Leading the way was the Seattle Thunderbirds who had four players that played on their roster drafted plus a player in Brad Lambert who they own the CHL rights to. All of the U.S. Division players selected project to be back with their junior teams this coming season which makes for an exciting time amongst local hockey fans.
The Thunderbirds are coming off a season that saw them run to the WHL Championship Series against Edmonton, and it should be no surprise that they had the most players selected, two of whom went in the first round.
“I feel great for the kids, I’m so proud of them and happy for them,” Thunderbirds general manager Bil La Forge said from Montreal. “I’m happy for the coaching staff. They put in a ton of work getting these guys where they need to be. So, it’s an exciting day for the whole organization.”
Having players drafted is a big deal for a junior team. As they draft and recruit players to choose their team and the WHL, it helps to be able to show that your program develops players that the NHL wants.
For Seattle, they now have a bevy of drafted players and appear to have a strong team heading into next season.
“I think we’re a destination city now, it’s a great place to play,” La Forge said. “Great ownership, and the coaching is so good. They’re coming here. I think we’ve had 12 or 13 guys drafted in the last three or four years. So that just shows that we’re a viable option for your development. It definitely helps us with the recruiting.”
Here is a look at the U.S. Division players drafted at the 2022 NHL Entry Draft.
Seattle Thunderbirds
Kevin Korchinski, D, 7th overall, Chicago Blackhawks
Seattle was on the board early when the Blackhawks selected the high-flying defenseman. Korchinski rose up the draft boards this year and was projected to go anywhere in the top 15. He was spectacular for the Thunderbirds in the playoffs and that helped his stock rise.
Korchinski had 61 assists in 67 games this year which is a big number.
“We had a pre-draft tool going and I think both [head coach Matt O’Dette] and I had him at number seven, Chicago,” La Forge said. “We thought anything after five was a possibility.”
Schaefer is a big power forward, and he played well in the Championship Series in Edmonton against the Edmonton Oil Kings. Interestingly, those Oil Kings are owned by the Edmonton Oilers, Schaefer’s future team.
Originally an eighth-round pick in the WHL Draft who failed to score a goal during the COVID-shortened season in 2021, Schaefer exploded for 32 goals this past year. He went from eighth-round bantam pick to first-round NHL pick.
“He’s another guy that just works so hard,” La Forge said. “Just with his development and what he needs to do to get to the next level, I thought that our coaches did a great job with him and Reid put in a ton of work.”
Jordan Gustafson, C, 79th pick overall, Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is no stranger to the Thunderbirds program, as former Seattle players Shea Theodore and Keegan Kolesar both play for the Golden Knights. Now they add an all-around player in Gustafson who can score, play all over the ice, and has the trust of his coaches.
“Smartest guy on the ice every time he’s out there,” La Forge said of Gustafson. “He’s a coach’s security blanket, you always want him out there. Five on three for us, five on three for them. There’s no situation that he can’t handle, and Vegas taking him where it traded a pick to get him there, I thought it was a good move.”
Jared Davidson, C, 130th overall, Montreal Canadiens
Perhaps the best story of all the Thunderbirds drafted, Davidson was not drafted in the WHL. He was a camp invite by Seattle and worked his way into a top center who scored 42 times last year. Davidson was passed over twice before by the NHL, but players develop at different paces, and Davidson has worked himself into a good position.
He’s 20 next year and Montreal could choose to send him to the American Hockey League.
“He’s one of my favorite people. He’s a kid I talk to every single day during the season and bug him a lot,” La Forge said. “He just outworks any issue that his game has had. He’s a special kid, and if Montreal keeps him in the American League next year, I’ll be the first guy to jump up and down with excitement for him, but if they send them back, I’ll be pretty excited as well.”
Brad Lambert, C, 30th overall, Winnipeg Jets
Lambert, who is from Finland, has yet to play a second of hockey for Seattle, but the Thunderbirds own his rights, and there is speculation that he’ll sign to play in the WHL for next year. Once considered the top prospect in the draft, he slipped after some non-productive years playing pro hockey overseas. Scouts who watch him say the skill is still there, though.
“We wish him all the best in trying to make the Winnipeg Jets or the [AHL] Manitoba Moose,” La Forge said. “We’ll be really excited if they ask us to help in his development, and we think we’d be a great fit for him.”
Everett Silvertips
Ben Hammerling, RW, 177th overall, Vegas Golden Knights
Hammerling broke out for the Silvertips this year. After seven points as a rookie he jumped to 47 last season as Everett raced out to another U.S. Division title. He’ll be back with the Tips after appearing in the Vegas prospect camps and will be a key player as they look to repeat their division title.
Ben Hemmerling, weaving magic worthy of The Strip.
— Everett Silvertips (@WHLsilvertips) July 8, 2022
Ryan Hofer, 181th overall, Washington Capitals
It feels like every season, the Silvertips get a big year from a guy that flew under the radar the prior season. Hofer was one of those players this past year as he blew up from six goals to 25 this past year. How many will he score this next season?
Spokane Chiefs
Mason Beaupit, G, 108th overall, Spokane Chiefs
Beaupit’s numbers are not pretty, but NHL scouts look beyond statistics when judging talent. Playing behind a young team that took it in the teeth most nights, Beaupit played well. He really jumped out at the CHL Top Prospect game and made an impression.
Graham Sward, F, 146th overall, Nashville Predators
Like Beaupit, Sward was a good player on a struggling team. He has good size and has shown that he can play, picking up 43 points in 57 games. Will Spokane keep him next year, or strengthen their rebuild by scoring prospects in a Sward trade?
Portland Winterhawks
Marek Alscher, D, 93rd overall, Florida Panthers
Alscher got better as the season wore on, as he got used to the North American game. By the end of the season the import from Czechia was in Portland’s top defensive pairings. He ended the year with 16 points.
Tri-City Americans
Parker Bell, F, 155th overall, Calgary Flames
Bell is another player who managed to flourish on a rebuilding team that suffered some growing pains through the season. He scored 18 times to go with 31 assists to be the Americans second leading scorer. As Tri-City builds its roster they’ll have Bell as a centerpiece for at least another year.
The Sound Of Hockey Podcast guys were just too excited about how things shook out for the Seattle Kraken in the NHL Entry Draft. So, they decided to hastily throw together a quick bonus episode to help you make sense of the team’s 11 total picks, including Shane Wright at No. 4 overall.
On this bonus episode, Curtis (@DeepSeaHockey) makes his SOH Podcast debut, filling in temporarily for Andy. Along with John and Darren, Curtis shares lots of good draft analysis.
