Using age-based performance to evaluate Firkus, Goyette, and Catton

Using age-based performance to evaluate Firkus, Goyette, and Catton

All NHL teams aspire to accumulate talent throughout their lineup. While this can be accomplished through trades or free agency, the most cost-efficient way to acquire talent is through the NHL Draft. Drafted players are cost controlled throughout their entry-level contracts and require only draft picks to get them into the organization.

The Seattle Kraken have been wisely accumulating draft assets, selecting 36 players over the last four NHL Drafts. Early returns suggest that first-round picks like Matty Beniers and Shane Wright will be key contributors. Beniers already has 167 games under his belt, and we can expect Wright to be a full-time NHLer next season.

The Kraken have also seen recent standout performances from a pair of second-round picks. Both David Goyette and Jagger Firkus led the OHL and WHL respectively in scoring last season. Given these developments, how should we evaluate their progress? Statistically, are they tracking as home run draft picks and future stars? Or should we remain more reserved in our outlook?

Performance relative to age

Jagger Firkus (Photo/Brian Liesse)

One useful lens for analyzing progress is performance relative to age. Even within the same draft class, there can be a wide disparity in age. For the 2024 draft, top-ranked prospect Cole Eiserman (drafted No. 20 overall by the New York Islanders) is about 10 months (304 days) younger than Artyom Levshunov (drafted No. 2 overall by the Chicago Blackhawks). At this age, 10 months is a huge runway in developmental timeline. This effect is compounded in junior leagues like the OHL and WHL where players as young as 16 and as old as 20 are playing side-by-side against each other every night.

Intuitively, we should expect a 20-year-old to be far more physically developed than the average 18-year-old (the average age of each team was 18.7 in both the OHL and WHL last year). Without the context of age, we may be prone to draw faulty conclusions about a player’s long-term potential. So how can we contextualize the seasons that Goyette and Firkus just had?

In order to draw some rudimentary conclusions, we looked at the top 15 scoring seasons for both OHL and WHL players from 2014 to 2024. The jury is still out on the long-term ceiling of some of these players, but there is enough data to make some inferences. Within the OHL, the list includes current NHL stars like Connor McDavid, Mitch Marner, and Jason Robertson, solid top-six players like Dylan Strome, and bottom-six forwards like Kevin Labanc. We also see players like Justin Brazeau and Aaron Luchuk who, to-date, have been unable to carve out NHL careers.

The common thread here is that standout performances in your 17- or 18-year-old season are often predictive of high-ceiling NHL careers. Standout performances from 19- or 20-year-olds should be taken with a bigger grain of salt. Included in this latter group are Christian Dvorak and Rory Kerins. While the former is a useful albeit replaceable bottom-six forward, the latter may or may not crack the NHL at all.

The WHL paints a similar picture. Two thirds of the top scoring seasons from the last 10 years are owned by 19 and 20-year-old players, many of which have struggled to hold NHL jobs. Kraken fan favorite Oliver Bjorkstrand has found success as a top-six forward while Sam Steel appears to have settled into a bottom-six role.

What is also notable is what the data doesn’t show. Superstar talents do not tend to linger in Major Junior for long. Connor Bedard just won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s best rookie. By the time he was 20, Connor McDavid had played nearly 200 NHL games and was scoring over 100 points per season. Post-draft, Mitch Marner spent another year with the London Knights before debuting in the NHL with a 61-point season.

With this in mind, we should be wary of projecting Firkus and Goyette as top-of-the-lineup stars. They both had excellent seasons, but their statistical profiles are more in line with solid middle-six forwards. While on the surface this may seem disappointing, this isn’t bad news. It is important to remember that even players selected early in the draft often do not become full-time NHLers.  

Looking at five years of draft data from 2010-2014 and using the 100 games played mark as a threshold, we find that 82 percent of first-round picks became NHLers, but that number drops off to only 46 percent in the second round. Even then, reaching the 100 games played threshold is hardly indicative of being a true difference maker on a contending team. Solid middle-six forwards would be fantastic outcomes for Firkus and Goyette, and contending teams need this type of talent in the middle of their lineup to win.

Berkly Catton (Photo/Spokane Chiefs)

While our analysis leads us to some muted optimism for Firkus and Goyette, we should end on a more positive note. The Kraken’s most recent first-round pick, Berkly Catton, just wrapped up a very special season relative to his historical 17-year-old peers, putting him in rare company. Hockey analyst Cam Robinson summed it up best.

Last season, the Kraken offense was ranked fourth from the bottom of the NHL. In drafting Catton, a dynamic rush scoring forward, they may have selected a player uniquely suited to address this gap.

Where we expect Kraken prospects to play next season

Where we expect Kraken prospects to play next season

You’ve seen them at development camp. Now it’s time to figure out where the Kraken prospects will play this upcoming season. 

With a few high-profile prospects expected to make the leap from the American Hockey League to the NHL, and several other players set to “graduate” to the AHL from junior hockey, there should be plenty of upward movement in Seattle’s system this year. 


Graduating to NHL

Ryker Evans

Evans, 22, has little left to prove in the AHL. After flirting with being an NHL regular for parts of last season, we expect Evans to fill Brian Dumoulin’s spot on the roster in 2024-25 after the veteran left-shot blueliner was traded to Anaheim on July 2. 

Shane Wright

After a successful campaign in Coachella Valley as a 20-year-old, the former fourth overall pick is poised to make the jump to Seattle’s lineup next season. 

Shane Wright (Photo/Brian Liesse)

In the mix for NHL

Ryan Winterton

Carson Rehkopf

Logan Morrison

Even with the Kraken signing Chandler Stephenson, there’s still room for a player to break into a fourth-line role with Seattle in 2024-25. Another spot could even open up if Brandon Tanev is traded to free up cap space this season, something we could still foresee happening being that he is on the last year of a contract that carries a $3.5 million cap hit.

Winterton, 20, and Morrison, 22, are coming off productive first seasons with Coachella Valley. Winterton, who tallied 35 points in 58 games for the Firebirds, is a good potential fit for a checking line role with his play style and looked good in his end-of-season stint with the Kraken.

Carson Rehkopf is entering his 19-year-old season and isn’t eligible to play in the AHL due to the NHL-CHL transfer agreement. He will likely be sent back to Kitchener in the Ontario Hockey League for one last season of junior hockey. However, Rehkopf is one of Seattle’s best prospects and, while unlikely, he could fight for a roster spot in 2024-25 with a good training camp. 

Logan Morrison
Logan Morrison (Photo/Brian Liesse)

NHL long shots, likely headed to AHL

Ville Ottavainen

Ottavainen will almost certainly begin the season in the AHL, but he could be in the mix for the first call-up if an injury arises on the Kraken blue line. The 21-year-old rearguard’s development will be better served playing every day in the AHL than as a seventh defenseman for the Kraken, but he’s huge at 6-foot-5, 216 pounds, and he is well regarded in the organization. Ottavainen could have an NHL future.


NHL long shots, likely headed to junior

Berkly Catton

In a similar vein to Rehkopf, Catton, the Kraken’s first-round pick in 2024, has a very slim chance to make the NHL roster. More realistically, he’ll be immediately sent back to junior or, if he impresses in training camp, he’ll play the 10-game trail allotted to prospects while still retaining the option of having their contracts “slide.”

Berkly Catton (Photo/Brian Liesse)

Graduating to AHL

Jagger Firkus 

Ty Nelson

David Goyette

Jani Nyman

Niklas Kokko

Lleyton Roed

Firkus, Nelson, and Goyette are members of Seattle’s exciting 2022 draft class who are finally eligible to play in Coachella Valley after successful junior careers. 

Nyman and goaltender Kokko are also members of said draft class and are expected to make the full-time jump to North America from their native Finland. Nyman had 43 points in 48 games for Ilves in Liiga, Finland’s top league. Kokko played for two teams in Liiga this past season and experienced his best success with Pelicans, posting a .926 save percentage and a 1.49 goals-against average and backstopping that team to the final.

Roed, a college free-agent signing, should be one to watch on Coachella Valley next season. The 21-year-old forward is coming off a 38-point season (30 games) for Bemidji State and can absolutely fly. He’s a fun player to watch.

Niklas Kokko (Photo/Brian Liesse)

Status up in the air

Andrei Loshko

Tyson Jugnauth

Both Loshko and Jugnauth are entering their 20-year-old seasons, meaning they are eligible to play in the AHL, but are unsigned. The Kraken could sign either of them and place them on the AHL roster, but that decision is two-fold: the Kraken first must decide whether it’s wise to add them to their prospect pool, then if there’s enough playing time available to put them on the AHL roster. 

Loshko, a fourth-round selection in 2023, was traded to Rouyn-Noranda of the QMJHL before last season and posted 67 points (28 goals) in 64 games. 

Not getting the role he expected with the Wisconsin Badgers, Jugnauth, a fourth-round pick in 2022, moved to the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks, where he was a point-per-game player (41 points in 41 games). 

Tyson Jugnauth (Photo/Brian Liesse)

Staying/heading overseas

Oscar Fisker Mølgaard

Zeb Forsfjall 

Kim Saarinen

Peetro Seppala

Visa Vedenpaa

Semyon Vyazovoy

Fisker-Mølgaard likely will play a minimum of one more season overseas before heading stateside. The Danish forward is set to return to HV71 in the SHL, Sweden’s top league, where he helped that club stave off relegation last season.

After playing the last two seasons for Coachella Valley, Seppala was signed by Orebro HK in the SHL this offseason. He remains in the Kraken system. 

Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (Photo/Brian Liesse)

Returning to AHL

Tucker Robertson

Jacob Melanson

Luke Henman


Headed back to junior/overseas/NCAA

WHL 

Julius Miettinen (Everett)

Caden Price (Kelowna)

Lukas Dragicevic (Prince Albert)

Ollie Josephson (Red Deer) 

Clarke Caswell (Swift Current)

Kaden Hammell (Everett)

QMJHL

Alexis Bernier (Baie-Comeau)

OHL

Nathan Villeneuve (Sudbury)

Jakub Fibigr (Mississauga)

Eduard Sale (Kitchener)

NCAA

Zaccharya Wisdom (Colorado College)

Barrett Hall (St. Cloud State)

Justin Janicke (Notre Dame)

Ben MacDonald (Harvard)

All of the listed CHL players are too young for the AHL and will head back to juniors this next season.

We might not see the NCAA players for a while. The Kraken hold their rights until they run out of eligibility in college hockey. Janicke, an incoming senior at Notre Dame, is the closest to graduation of the bunch.

Evaluating the Seattle Kraken 2024 NHL Draft class

Evaluating the Seattle Kraken 2024 NHL Draft class

The 2024 NHL Draft is in the books. Today, we’ll dive deep on all eight Seattle Kraken draft picks with information from the Sound Of Hockey Big Board, three viewings at 2024 Kraken Development Camp, and all other sources of information we can muster. What kinds of players did the Kraken get? And what did Seattle tell us about the 2024 Draft with its picks? Let’s get to it.

The Kraken prospect pool before the draft

After the 2023-24 season, we put together the Sound Of Hockey consensus Seattle Kraken prospect ranking. Here was the top 10 (and ties):

Notably, the group includes only two defensemen. Ryker Evans has already amassed significant NHL ice time and projects to be a Kraken regular for the 2024-25 season. This will leave only defenseman Ville Ottavainen among the tier of projected future NHL contributors not yet playing in the NHL. There are intriguing prospects further away, including Caden Price and Lukas Dragicevic. And fan-favorite Ty Nelson will look to establish himself as a professional at the AHL level this year. 

Overall, though, the team’s forward group has significantly more impact potential than its blueliners. This is mostly due to asset allocation. The team has spent only four picks in the top-three rounds of a draft on defensemen, against 10 picks on forwards. The team has also signed four undrafted free agents: three forwards and one goaltender. For these reasons, we suspected the Kraken would be more willing to invest on the blue line in the 2024 NHL Draft.

We did not focus as much on the team’s center depth, but Kraken general manager Ron Francis noted after Day 1 of the draft that Carson Rehkopf and David Goyette had moved to the wing full-time during the 2023-24 season. Assuming that position change holds into the future, the top prospect group above includes just three centers. Once factoring in Shane Wright’s likely graduation to the NHL, center depth was materializing as an important and under-discussed need as well.

Carson Rehkopf

The Kraken 2024 NHL Draft class

The Kraken began the 2024 NHL Draft with nine picks but traded two late-rounders (Nos. 169 and 201 overall) to Florida for one fifth-round selection (No. 141). The Kraken had previously traded their assigned fifth-round pick to Colorado for forward Tomas Tatar. The draft-day pick trade was only the second ever made by the Seattle Kraken or a team managed by Ron Francis. 

Here are the eight draft picks Seattle came away with:

The team drafted five forwards, three or four of which project to play center long term, addressing a subtle organizational need. On the other hand, the team drafted just two defensemen, with the first coming in the third round. The team carried on its practice of drafting one goalie each year. 

Experts give Seattle Kraken draft solid marks

Draft analysts graded Seattle’s draft positively, though typically not among the very best classes. Several questioned the team’s decision to bypass a blue chip defenseman at the top of the draft. Friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast Chris Peters captured the popular sentiment well, giving the Kraken a B+ grade, but with the following note:

What I do find a little concerning in the earlier days of the Kraken’s drafting, however, is the lack of high-end defensemen in their system. I don’t blame them for going for their best player available as opposed to one of the higher end defensemen when they drafted Catton, but there is going to have to come a time at some point where the team [prioritizes] defensemen in their drafting.

Chris Peters, Flo Hockey, NHL Draft Grades 2024: Here’s How All 32 Teams Did

Other notable draft experts gave Seattle the following grades:

  • Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff: A-
  • Corey Pronman, The Athletic: B+
  • Rachel Doerrie, ESPN: B+
  • Mitchell Brown & David St-Louis, Elite Prospects: A

Kraken get solid value using a mixed draft strategy

In the end, the Kraken came away with six top-100 players on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board (tied for most in the draft) and five players in my top-100 data ranking (second-most in the draft). It was a good haul by those measures, but I’ll admit to feeling a bit of whiplash following the team’s draft strategy live, not to mention some disappointment at the continued lack of investment on defense.

Before the draft, I dug into data on the draft-eligible prospects, and I found a group of five statistical standouts at the top of the class that included four defensemen. After that I saw an average-or-worse draft class from the 40s onward. I believe the Kraken likely agreed with the latter point, but clearly held a different view of the draft’s top prospects.

After Macklin Celebrini–who was the consensus No. 1 overall prospect among scouts and data analysts alike–I saw blueliners Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh, Artyom Levschunov, and Sam Dickinson as unique offensive defensemen. Buium’s 50 points in 42 NCAA games were the most ever by a first-time eligible NCAA defenseman. Parekh’s 96 points in 66 junior games was the most by a CHL defenseman in more than 30 years. Levschunov’s 35 points in 38 games were the most ever by a first-time eligible NCAA defenseman standing 6-foot-2 or taller. And Dickinson’s 70 points in 68 games were the second-most by an OHL defenseman standing 6-foot-3 or taller in the last 30 years.

Seeing an opportunity where supply met a need, I thought the Kraken would be thrilled to select any of these prospects if they were still available at pick No. 8. As it turns out, Buium, Parekh, and Dickinson were all available when the Kraken were on the clock. The team went a different direction anyway.

From a raw point production perspective, Berkly Catton out-produced all of the defensemen I named. In fact, he is one of only four first-time eligible CHL players this century to score 50+ goals and total 115+ points. The others are two soon-to-be Hall of Famers and the reigning Calder Trophy winner: Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, and Connor Bedard. 

Looking at scoring data only, I had Catton as the sixth-ranked first-time eligible skater in the 2024 NHL Draft, ahead of each of the defensemen except Buium. Even so, I ranked Catton slightly lower than the four defensemen listed above in my final data ranking, which accounts for size (Catton is 5-foot-10), league value (Catton’s WHL is weaker than the OHL and NCAA), and relative positional value. 

I suspect Seattle decided to go with Catton for one of two reasons. First, the team may have viewed offense, from a player who could be an NHL center, as the greatest organizational need. Second, the team’s scouts may not have been sold on the high-scoring blueliners, each of whom came with his own set of questions.

Also, we cannot entirely rule out the value the organization may see in drafting locally. Indeed, after Catton, the team stayed local drafting another WHL center in Julius Miettinen. Miettinen was well-regarded by most scouts, checking in at No. 41 on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. My data score ranking had him as a second-rounder too (No. 61 overall). So, the selection didn’t stray far from consensus value.

After that, though, the Kraken draft pivoted hard toward idiosyncratic scouting favorites. I suspect this is because the remainder of Seattle’s top targets that combined in-house scouting support and strong data profiles went off the board before Seattle’s next pick in a relatively shallow talent pool.

Nathan Villeneuve, Seattle’s pick at No. 63, is a checking center with the potential to push his scoring higher with more ice time. He was No. 91 on the Big Board and No. 71 in my data ranking. Likewise, the team’s pick at No. 73, defenseman Alexis Bernier, was drafted higher than those in the public community or my data analysis suggested (No. 122 on the Big Board; No. 341 in my data ranking). Ollie Josephson, the team’s fourth-round pick, was liked by scouts both in Seattle and elsewhere (No. 77 on the Big Board), but, again, his data lagged (No. 226 in my data ranking). 

Toward the end of the draft, the team turned back towards strong data players who had dropped. The Kraken selected forward Clarke Caswell (No. 53 in my data rank) and defenseman Jakub Fibigr (No. 37 on the data) with its final two picks.

Jakub Fibigr

Kraken draft picks by the numbers: young, small, and junior-heavy

The Kraken selected the youngest draft class in the league—with an average age of 18 years, two months as of the 2024 NHL Draft. The class is more than a full year younger on average than the league’s oldest class, drafted by the Vegas Golden Knights. (Coincidentally, the Kraken’s three youngest 2024 NHL Draft picks, Kim Saarinen, Josephson, and Fibigr, were all born on the same day—July 22, 2006.)

Seattle was also one of eight teams not to select any re-draft candidates. Earlier in the organization’s development, Seattle selected several overage prospects because there were no prospects from earlier drafts blocking their path. This year’s approach is indicative of a pipeline with a steady flow of prospects ahead of the 2024 class.

Beyond drafting young, the Kraken also selected a class of relatively small players. Seattle took the second-shortest skater class in the league, with their seven drafted skaters averaging just a shade over 6-foot-0. (The team also selected goaltender Kim Saarinen, who stands 6-foot-4.) Their skater class is also the fifth-lightest, averaging under 182 pounds. By contrast, the Boston Bruins class of skaters stood almost 6-foot-4 and 204 pounds on average, both the top marks in the league.

Finally, no team committed more draft resources to Canadian junior hockey players than the Kraken. Seattle selected seven players from the CHL, tied with the Calgary Flames for most in the league. Seattle’s four draft picks from the WHL were the most of any team.

Scouting the Kraken draft picks

Round 1 Pick 8: Berkly Catton, F, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
Height: 5’10.25″ | Weight: 163 | Shot: Left
Games played: 68 | Goals: 54 | Assists: 62 | PPG: 1.71 | Plus-minus: 15 | % of offense: 0.434
Big Board rank: 6 | Highest analyst rank: 3 (Ferrari, Scouching) | Data rank: 10

Scouting notes: “Berkly Catton is one of the most fun players to watch in this draft. Give him time and space, and he’ll make you pay; try to take it away, and he’ll cut through your formation anyway like a hot knife through butter.

“It’s on the rush where he’s most effective. A series of crossovers allows him to build speed as he plans his attack, reading and reacting to what’s in front of him, using a series of weight shifts and handling moves to navigate the neutral zone as he drives play toward the opposition goal. With this ability comes cunning in the form of a sophisticated delay game that allows him to level up and attack with support or connect with trailing linemates as they enter the play.” – Elite Prospects

Pick analysis: At development camp we saw a player who combines instant-adrenaline skating with elite ice vision and self-confidence. He’s the team’s most dynamic offensive playmaker at any level and should be a one-man solution to the Kraken power play within three years. 

Full analysis: Seattle Kraken draft Berkly Catton at No. 8 in the 2024 NHL Draft

Round 2 Pick 40: Julius Miettinen, F, Everett Silvertips (WHL)
Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 207 | Shot: Left
Games played: 66 | Goals: 31 | Assists: 36 | PPG: 1.02 | Plus-minus: 27 | % of offense: 0.234
Big Board rank: 41 | Highest analyst rank: 22 (Button, HockeyProspect(dot)com) | Data rank: 61

Scouting notes: “Miettinen is a well-built, strong, 6-foot-3 center who works, wins battles, plays hard and can skate. He’s got some soft skill and power to his game. He protects the puck well and can play along the wall or go to the front of the net and make plays around the crease.” – Scott Wheeler, The Athletic

Pick analysis: Miettinen brings a player profile the Kraken system is currently lacking—a physically imposing, two-way forward who projects to stick at center long term. Elite Prospects compares him to Charlie Coyle or Boone Jenner. Like those players, his game at development camp looked simple, but on closer inspection you start to understand how he intelligently puts himself in positions to win more than his share of battles and grind out the production a team needs to win.

Full analysis: What the Seattle Kraken got in Julius Miettinen, pick No. 40 in the 2024 NHL Draft

Round 2 Pick 63: Nathan Villeneuve, F, Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
Height: 5’11” | Weight: 183 | Shot: Left
Games played: 56 | Goals: 23 | Assists: 27 | PPG: 0.89 | Plus-minus: 10 | % of offense: 0.185
Big Board rank: 91 | Highest analyst rank: 29 (HockeyProspect(dot)com) | Data rank: 71

Scouting notes: “[Villeneuve’s] an all-around forward who plays with good pace and isn’t afraid to mix it up along the boards. Villeneuve loves to spend time causing havoc in front of the net and plays a strong off-puck game compared to many others around this point in the list. His energy and feistiness will give him a shot in the NHL, even if he doesn’t have the pure skill to burn.” – Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff

Pick analysis: I watched at least a half-dozen of Villeneuve’s games between monitoring David Goyette and getting a feel for Sudbury’s 2024 NHL Draft prospects. His physical edge, not to mention a fight or two, always stood out. So too did his pro-ready movements and game. He’s not flashy, but it all looks NHL-translatable, at least in a depth role. Scouts see a center in the long term, perhaps as a third-liner or an outstanding fourth-line player. Villeneuve didn’t stand out at development camp, but he plays a game that should shine brighter when the physicality ratchets up in training camp.

Full analysis: What the Seattle Kraken got in Nathan Villeneuve, pick No. 63 in the 2024 NHL Draft

Round 3 Pick 73: Alexis Bernier, D, Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL)
Height: 6’1″ | Weight: 190 | Shot: Right
Games played: 67 | Goals: 4 | Assists: 27 | PPG: 0.46 | Plus-minus: 38 | % of offense: 0.108
Big Board rank: 122 | Highest analyst rank: 100 (Elite Prospects) | Data rank: 341

Scouting notes: “He’s a fast, agile defenseman who really knows how to utilize his skating ability. He loves using it to keep the tempo high, whether that’s with his gap control, man-to-man defending, breaking pucks out, or activating from the offensive blueline. Despite not being overly big he really plays hard and with an edge. He might never be a true specialist on either side of special teams, but he’ll be someone who can comfortably handle the responsibilities of both.

“The Drakkar are going to be top contenders in the QMJHL for the next two seasons, and Bernier seems like the type of player who elevates his game to new heights during a deep playoff run and then never looks back.” – McKeen’s

Pick analysis: Bernier’s a fluid mover and adept puck handler, and he was one of his junior team’s best players at breaking out of the defensive zone. Perhaps his strongest trait, according to scouts, is his hockey sense, which allows him to diagnose and shut down opposing offensive chances before they materialize. On the other hand, I don’t see clear winning traits in the offensive zone, which raises developmental questions.

Full analysis: What the Seattle Kraken got in Alexis Bernier, pick No. 73 in the 2024 NHL Draft

Round 3 Pick 88: Kim Saarinen, G, HPK U20 (U20 SM-sarja)
Height: 6’4″ | Weight: 181
Games played: 23 | GAA: 2.41  | Save %: .917
Big Board rank: 105 | Highest analyst rank: 56 (Kennedy) | Data rank: N/A

Scouting notes: “His 6-foot-4 frame does offer some clear advantages, especially covering high when he’s down… but he plays a surprisingly active style for someone of his stature. He keeps excellent access to his edges and remains patient when the puck is passed around the zone, capable of making quick adjustments in either direction… He’s also a difficult goaltender to beat on clean shots because of his above-average tracking ability.” – Elite Prospects

Pick analysis: We “predicted” this pick before the draft. Saarinen looked solid overall at development camp after giving up a number of goals over his shoulders on day one. Interestingly, the Kraken decided to make Saarinen the first Seattle draft pick selected outside the first round to sign an NHL contract during the summer of his draft year. He’ll be one to follow in Finland this year.

Round 4 Pick 105: Ollie Josephson, F, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 181 | Shot: Left
Games played: 68 | Goals: 12 | Assists: 35 | PPG: 0.69 | Plus-minus: -4 | % of offense: 0.22
Big Board rank: 77 | Highest analyst rank: 33 (Scouching) | Data rank: 226

Scouting notes: “Josephson is the type of forward who will always earn more love from coaches than from fans. He’s a steady center who is rarely one of the most skilled players on the ice but is usually among the smartest and the hardest working.” – McKeen’s

Pick analysis: Josephson’s an impressive athlete who moves well–even if the skating could still be cleaned up a bit. He brings pace in transition and is committed in every aspect of the checking game. I’d expect his scoring production to take a step forward in his draft-plus-one season. It’s easy enough to imagine a checking role as a professional. Whether he tops out in the NHL or AHL remains to be seen, though.

Round 5 Pick 141: Clarke Caswell, F, Swift Current Broncos (WHL)
Height: 5’11” | Weight: 176 | Shot: Left
Games played: 68 | Goals: 26 | Assists: 51 | PPG: 1.13 | Plus-minus: 17 | % of offense: 0.269
Big Board rank: 79 | Highest analyst rank: 36 (Scouching) | Data rank: 53

Scouting notes: “He’s so, so smart with how he times almost every move he makes on the ice. Finding open ice off the puck, creating open ice with it in every zone of the ice, reading breakouts and stopping defensive zone cycles, it’s just wonderful to watch… He absolutely needs to work on the skating as many have pointed out but I don’t think it’s that big of an issue, and the data indicates that if he improves there, he could be an elite player considering how good his output is already.” – Scouching

Pick analysis: Caswell’s junior scoring data justified a much higher selection. Before the draft I had him listed–along with Fibigr, actually–as an “alternative” for Seattle at No. 73. Caswell’s scoring touch was evident at development camp. The question with him is can he develop the complimentary skills necessary to succeed at a professional level. There is a solid baseline here, though.

Round 7 Pick 202: Jakub Fibigr, D, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 172 | Shot: Left
Games played: 61 | Goals: 7 | Assists: 36 | PPG: 0.7 | Plus-minus: 13 | % of offense: 0.192
Big Board rank: 98 | Highest analyst rank: 54 (Kennedy) | Data rank: 37

Scouting notes: “He has a very well-rounded skill set. His mobility is above average, with his ability to build speed quickly out of cuts and pivots being his best strength. This helps him have a real positive impact on the transition game as he skates away from pressure and initiates the breakout.” – McKeen’s

Pick analysis: Like Caswell, Fibigr’s scoring data implied a much earlier draft pick. He also looked strong in his activations at development camp, even if the defense was an adventure at times. Fibigr reminds me a bit of Ryker Evans both in stature and in their draft-year profiles. Evans ultimately went undrafted in his first-eligible draft, only to be selected in the second round by the Kraken as an overager. I suspect Fibigr could follow a similar development path and could have been a much higher pick next year if the Kraken didn’t snatch him in the seventh round. A lot hinges on Fibigr’s ability to make defensive improvements.

The Deep Sea draft

In case you’re curious, I made an alternative “Deep Sea draft” for the Seattle Kraken as the draft was ongoing using my watchlist and pre-draft work. I assumed the same late-round trade the Kraken actually made.

Having seen Catton up close at development camp, I admit that it’s tough for me to contemplate a draft class without him now. Furthermore, my draft does not address the team’s need for depth at center, which I have come to appreciate more after looking at it since the draft. My draft also does not address a common criticism I saw of Seattle’s haul—that it included too many smaller players. My group has a similar average height and weight to the real Kraken class. In the end, it’ll be interesting to compare years down the road.

More draft and prospects content?

Draft season never really ends at Sound Of Hockey. I expect to have a capstone post looking at the league-wide 2024 NHL Draft trends and the performance of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board as a predictive tool. Then we’ll return after that with a Kraken prospect ranking including the 2024 draft picks and a preseason data-only look at the 2025 NHL Draft. So, stay tuned here if you like following the draft and Kraken prospects.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

Kraken prospect Kaden Hammell ready to lead outstanding Silvertips blue line

Kraken prospect Kaden Hammell ready to lead outstanding Silvertips blue line

The Everett Silvertips faithful were out in full force at Kraken Community Iceplex on Friday, July 5, as the Stucky Cup scrimmage (coincidentally named for former Silvertips equipment manager James Stucky) concluded Seattle Kraken Development Camp.

They showed off their support for not just the local NHL squad, but also two players of their own in Kaden Hammell and Julius Miettinen that they’ve seen develop through the years at Angel of the Winds Arena.

Hammell said he was thrilled when Miettinen was taken by the Kraken in the second round of this summer’s NHL Draft, and explained what some of the added benefits were of having an embedded connection like theirs.

“There’s always going to be that connection that you have when you’re battling nine months with a guy.” Hammell said. “It’s pretty awesome that we both get to go through the same experiences and we can connect on certain things that maybe other prospects in different organizations can’t.”

This process isn’t anything new for Hammell, however. Having been through his first full season as a prospect in the organization, the 19-year-old defenseman from Langley, B.C., evaluated the strides he’s taken since being selected in the fifth round of the 2023 NHL Draft, as well as what steps he still needs in order to reach the next level.

Kaden Hammell’s experience in Everett and Seattle

It’s not always an easy process being traded in the middle of the season, but Hammell felt such a change of scenery could help further along his career. That it has.

Hammell was originally acquired by Everett via trade from Kamloops in January, 2023, as part of the same deal that sent Olen Zellweger to the Blazers, as well as landing the Silvertips the first overall pick in this past WHL Draft.

In 83 regular-season games since joining the Silvertips, he’s tallied eight goals and 43 points, consistently maintaining a half-point-per-game benchmark he’s been at for most of his WHL career. He also has had a few bruised knuckles along the way.

There’s more to Hammell’s game that he feels he’s unlocked, however, since arriving in Everett. He’s elevated from a stay-at-home, shut-down defensive role, to becoming more of a versatile and fluid player on both ends of the ice.

The Kraken selected Hammell in the fifth round of the 2023 NHL Draft, and since the selection, he’s said that the Kraken development staff helped him to gain more confidence in his two-way game, with them telling him to “really own” his skillsets everywhere he goes on the ice.

“Having that versatility is the most important thing for my career right now,” Hammell said. “I’m making sure that I’m good in both zones, and creating as much as I can offensively.”

He showed flashes of offensive prowess down the stretch of last season, where he garnered eight points in his last 10 games. And while Everett fell in the second round of the playoffs to Portland, Hammell’s offensive involvement grew throughout the postseason, tallying three goals in nine games, with two of those coming on the power play.

Being 18 years old at the beginning of last season, former head coach Dennis Williams bestowed Hammell with an assistant captaincy position, a role he felt helped him grow closer to being a professional.

“I learned a lot throughout the year about what it means to be a leader,” Hammell said. “Especially going into the playoffs, I feel like that was a time where leadership was a super key thing to have.”

Despite getting an amateur tryout with the Coachella Valley Firebirds after the Silvertips season concluded, Hammell still has some distance to cover before making an impact at the professional level.

He will likely spend one more season in Everett, which isn’t the worst thing in the world considering the talent that’s brimming at the defensive position. And as one of the elder statesmen in the room, a full-time captaincy position could be in the cards for him.

Leading a loaded defensive group

The Silvertips’ back end might be one of the more talented groups in the league this season, and for some good reasons.

Before Hammell shared the ice with Miettinen at Kraken Development Camp in 2024, 2023 main training camp saw another Silvertips teammate of his in Eric Jamieson receive a camp invite.

Jamieson made the most of the opportunity and his offensive production jumped up last season to 10 goals and 32 points, leading to a sixth-round draft selection by the Calgary Flames.

Another one of Hammell’s defensive partners, Tarin Smith, was drafted in third round by the Anaheim Ducks after a breakout season with 44 points in 67 games.

Smith spoke at the draft about how Everett development standards are like no other in the CHL.

“It’s an unbelievable spot. It’s a pro organization and they run things like no other place,” Smith said. “They treat us like pros and they expect us to act like pros. I feel like it’s one of the [best] spots for development in [the CHL].”

The group Hammell’s about to lead would be impressive by itself with him and the two additional NHL Draft choices set to return to Everett for the 2024-25 season, not to mention the expected added impacts from Niko Tsakumis and Cameron Sytsma.

But if and when they finally add their blue chip, exceptional-status phenom in Landon DuPont, Everett’s blue line all of a sudden could turn into one of the better units in recent WHL history.

“All hope is that [DuPont] comes,” Hammell said. “The whole team’s super excited to play with him and I know the organization is going to be thrilled to have him.”

Even with DuPont and management staff still not having put pen to paper just yet, it is expected to happen soon, and it’s safe to say this upcoming Silvertips season could be one of the more anticipated in the club’s history.

“I have full belief that they’re going to make the right decisions with the coaching and management staff,” Hammell said. “There’s nothing to worry about there. We’re gonna be an amazing team and we got a lot of firepower to work off of from last year.”

The 50-contract rule and what it means for Seattle Kraken roster building

The 50-contract rule and what it means for Seattle Kraken roster building

On Sunday, the Seattle Kraken announced the signing of 2024 third-round draft pick Kim Saarinen to an entry-level contract. That deal brought the team’s total number of NHL contracts to 50.

If this number rings a bell for you, it’s probably because you’ve heard mention of the “50-Contract Rule,” which limits how many players a team can have signed at any one time.

What is this rule, and what does it mean that Seattle now has 50 NHL contracts? Even the most dedicated fan would be forgiven for not knowing the nuances of this rule.

This is because discussion of the 50-Contract Rule typically lacks important context. Head over to the Seattle Kraken page on Puckpedia, for example, and you’ll see a simple note that Seattle has now used all 50 contract slots for the 2024-25 season. Is this true? Not really. What does it mean that Seattle has 50 NHL contracts? Puckpedia and other public resources don’t provide that answer. (To be fair, CapFriendly did not provide useful context either before it shuttered earlier this month.)

To make matters worse, even if the industrious fan sought out the source rule in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”), the fan would likely come away with an incorrect understanding of how the 50-Contract Rule operates in practice. NHL teams actually follow a shadow rule—or, at least, a strained interpretation of the words in the CBA. Of course, this contributes to the flawed public discourse.

So, let’s dive into this sometimes-mentioned, rarely-explained 50-Contract Rule and consider what it means for the Kraken roster-building options moving forward.

The Kraken have 50 NHL contracts

Following Seattle’s initial wave of free agent signings at the beginning of the month, the team had 47 NHL contracts on the books for the 2024-25 season. Then, on July 5, the Kraken signed restricted free agent Eeli Tolvanen and 2024 first-round pick Berkly Catton to NHL deals, and, on July 14, the team signed Saarinen. This brought Seattle’s NHL contract total to 50.

Are the Kraken now hamstrung from signing any more NHL contracts this offseason? If so, does this mean that the team will have to trade (or terminate) a contract simply to sign a deal with unsigned restricted free agent Matty Beniers?

The answer is no, but let’s find out why.

The 50-Contract Rule explained

Under the CBA, an NHL team may have a maximum of 90 players on its “Reserve List” at any time. A team’s Reserve List includes all players signed to standard NHL player contracts (“SPC”) as well as all unsigned NHL Draft choices during the time period the team retains exclusive NHL negotiating rights with the player. 

Below the 90-player overall limit, the CBA provides that a team is allowed “not more than 50 players signed to an SPC.” This is the “50-Contract Rule.”

Unsigned players or players who have signed a contract directly with an AHL or ECHL affiliate do not count toward this 50-contract limit. As of the posting of this article, Beniers has not agreed to a contract for the 2024-25 season, so he does not count under the 50-Contract Rule. Likewise, recent Kraken Development Camp invitee Landon McCallum does not count because he signed an AHL contract directly with the Coachella Valley Firebirds.

With respect to existing NHL contracts, though, the 50-Contract Rule is subject to only one exception: “Age 18 and age 19 players who were returned to Juniors, and who have not played 11 NHL Games in one season, shall be exempt from inclusion in the 50 Player limit” (the “Juniors Exemption”). Separately, the CBA defines the word “Juniors” to mean the major junior leagues in the Canadian Hockey League.

Based on this black-and-white CBA language, one might reasonably conclude that an 18- or 19-year-old player becomes exempt from the 50-Contract Rule only after the player is returned to a CHL team to play the season. If the player has not yet been returned or the player is returned to play in some other non-CHL league, he is not exempt.

In reality, it doesn’t work that way.

Here is how the Juniors Exemption actually works: Signed 18- or 19 year-old players are, from the moment their contracts go into effect, exempt from the 50-Contract Rule unless and until the player is placed on an active professional (i.e., NHL, AHL, or ECHL) roster. This would typically happen coming out of NHL training camp. If the player is not added to a professional roster and instead returns to play with any other club team, the player continues to be exempt from the 50-Contract Rule.

If an 18- or 19-year-old player remains on the NHL roster to begin a year, the player counts against the limit, but could regain the exemption if returned to the player’s other club before playing 11 NHL games. For example, Shane Wright counted against Seattle’s 50-contract limit to begin the 2022-23 season, but became exempt again when he was assigned back to the CHL after having played only eight NHL games.

Finally, the Juniors Exemption applies to all 18- or 19-year-old players who have been or could be returned to other leagues, not just the CHL. For example, Oscar Fisker-Molgaard’s contract is exempt during the 2024 offseason even though he would be returned to the 2024-25 season in the SHL, the top-level professional league in Sweden.

The Kraken have room to sign Beniers or other NHL contracts

The Kraken have seven 18- or 19-year-old players who fall within the Juniors Exemption to the 50-Contract Rule:

  • Carson Rehkopf (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
  • Eduard Sale (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
  • Lukas Dragicevic (Tri-City Americans, WHL)
  • Caden Price (Kelowna Rockets, WHL)
  • Berkly Catton (Spokane Chiefs, WHL)
  • Oscar Fisker Molgaard (HV71, SHL)
  • Kim Saarinen (HPK, Liiga)

Accordingly, contrary to what one would reasonably surmise from PuckPedia, it is fairer to say the Kraken are currently at 43 of 50 non-exempt NHL contracts under the 50-Contract Rule.

There is an outside possibility that Rehkopf or Catton could earn an extended look on the Kraken roster this fall after training camp—which would, at least temporarily, end their exemptions. But the most likely outcome is that all these exemptions will persist into the 2024-25 season.

The team will want to leave itself flexibility for in-season additions if the NHL roster is struck by injuries or performance declines. But with spots open for seven more NHL contracts, the team has more than enough room to sign Beniers and add a minimum-salary veteran free-agent scorer before the season, should it desire to do so.

It is good to have that option open to add another NHL contract rather than being hemmed against the limit. An NHL contract is always going to be more appealing to a free agent than an AHL offer or an invite to camp on a professional tryout agreement, for example.

Kraken contracts corner

We put out a call on Twitter for contract or CBA minutiae you’d like to see addressed in future posts. The 50-Contract Rule analysis was inspired by one such question. Continue to send questions our way on Twitter or in the comments below. In the meantime, here are a few more Kraken contract quick hits:

1. Future contracts and the 50-Contract Rule

One other important point of clarification when counting contracts under the 50-Contract Rule: A contract signed for a future season only counts against the limit during the league year when the contract actually begins, not at the time it is signed. For example, Lleyton Roed signed an entry-level contract with the Kraken on March 29, 2024, which began with the 2024-25 season. Thus, his contract counted against the limit only as of July 1, 2024, the first day of the 2024-25 league year, not earlier.

2. Draft picks and the Reserve List

The time period of exclusive control over a drafted but unsigned player varies depending on where the player was drafted from. To date, Seattle has lost exclusive negotiating rights to only one drafted player, Kyle Jackson. The signing deadlines for Seattle’s other drafted prospects are as follows:

3. Saarinen signing breaks new ground

Returning to where we began, the Saarinen signing is intriguing even in isolation. The team got a close look at the 6-foot-4 Finnish goaltender earlier this month at Kraken Development Camp. And, after that viewing, the Kraken decided to make Saarinen the first Seattle draft pick selected outside the first round to sign an NHL contract during the summer of his draft year. Saarinen also hops over two earlier-drafted goalies, countryman Visa Vedenpaa and Russian Semyon Vyazovoi, in earning a contract. Fair or not, this puts added focus on him for this coming season.

4. Qualifying offers and the timeline to sign Beniers

On June 30, the Seattle Kraken extended Matty Beniers a “qualifying offer.” Based on the formula in the CBA, the offer was a one-year, one-way deal worth $874,125. That process was merely a formality, though. Beniers was never going to accept that deal. The Kraken offered it because they were required to do so in order to retain Beniers’ restricted free agent rights.

The keen observer will note that Beniers’ qualifying offer may have expired at 2:00 pm PT yesterday, July 15. That is the default deadline for expiry of qualifying offers in the CBA (though a team can theoretically extend the deadline).

What does it mean if Beniers’ qualifying offer expired? Nothing really. The team and the player continue to negotiate directly on a contract. Since Beneirs does not have enough professional experience (four seasons) to qualify for salary arbitration under the CBA, the rarely-used “offer sheet” from another team is the only alternative available to the player.

I’ve seen questions about the timeline for resolution on Beniers’ contract. Typically, the salary arbitration procedure creates deadlines throughout the offseason that spur restricted free agent deals. But, as mentioned, Beniers does not yet have arbitration rights, so the sides cannot rely on that framework. Instead, they are left to negotiate without any specific offseason deadlines.

I’d imagine the team will do everything it can to get Beniers’ contract resolved before training camp—particularly since Beniers remains the face of the young organization. And it could be much sooner. Quentin Byfield, a player in a similar situation to Beniers, just signed a deal with the Los Angeles Kings on July 15. Last year, the Kraken signed (arbitration-eligible) Vince Dunn on July 21.

5. AHL eligibility under the CHL Transfer Agreement

Another question I often see on Twitter asks which Kraken prospects from the CHL are eligible to play in the AHL this coming year. For background, see this earlier post on the CHL Transfer Agreement when looking at Shane Wright’s situation. 

In short, a player drafted from the CHL must be 20 years old by Dec. 31, 2024, in order to be eligible to be assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds for the 2024-25 season. If the player is younger than that, he must be offered back to his Junior team if he does not make the NHL roster out of training camp. The following signed prospects are eligible for an AHL assignment this year:

  • David Goyette (DOB: March 27, 2004)
  • Ty Nelson (DOB: March 30, 2004)
  • Jagger Firkus (DOB: April 29, 2004)

Additionally, Eduard Sale (DOB: March 10, 2005) is eligible because, technically, he was playing in the Czech Elite League when he was drafted, so the CHL Transfer Agreement does not apply to him. Sale has been playing in the CHL’s Ontario Hockey League since Seattle selected him in the 2023 NHL Draft. Andrei Loshko (DOB: Oct. 7, 2005) would also be eligible to play in the AHL if he signs a contract, but he is currently unsigned. Tyson Jugnauth (DOB: April 17, 2004) is also age-eligible, though the CHL Transfer Agreement doesn’t apply because he was drafted out of the BCHL.

Conversely, the following CHL players, though signed to NHL contracts, are ineligible for an AHL assignment absent an extraordinary exception or one-off agreement:

  • Carson Rehkopf (DOB: Jan. 7, 2005)
  • Lukas Dragicevic (DOB: Apr. 25, 2005)
  • Caden Price (DOB: Aug. 24, 2005)
  • Berkly Catton (DOB: Jan. 14, 2006)

6. AHL signings bring clarity to the depth chart

On July 12, the Coachella Valley Firebirds reportedly agreed to terms with four players.

Kraken GM Ron Francis had indicated previously that he believed LaFontaine would return. These players join 20-year-old forward Landon McCallum as players reportedly signing AHL contracts with the Firebirds for the 2024-25 season. All of these additions qualify as “developmental” players (or are otherwise exempt) under the “Veteran Rule” at the AHL level.

I currently have the following players projected to compete for AHL roster spots:

Looking at the depth chart, there may be room to add one more piece on the blue line, perhaps even a high-end “veteran” piece. But, otherwise, the depth chart is looking fairly set.

Want more contract-related analysis?

Recently, Blaiz Grubic gave us a fiery dose of Firebirds Contracts Corner, digging in on the so-called “Veteran Rule” at the AHL level. If you’ve read that already and want to know even more about NHL organizations build their rosters, check out our posts explaining the CHL Transfer Agreement, cap space accrual and bonuses in entry-level contracts, and much more.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

Forecasting the Kraken power play for 2024-25

Forecasting the Kraken power play for 2024-25

Several weeks have passed since the Seattle Kraken made a significant splash in free agency by committing $90 million to two high-profile signings. Assuming no trades on the horizon, the Kraken’s roster appears set for the 2024-25 season. I have previously stated on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast that both Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour are likely to immediately join the first power play unit when the regular season begins. Evaluating the impact of these additions to the power play is challenging, but I wanted to take a deep dive into the Kraken’s power play potential.

Historical power play performance

The Kraken’s power play performance last season was not bad; in terms of power play execution percentage, they were just slightly below league average and ranked 17th in the league.

Additionally, the Kraken’s power play has improved in each of the last three seasons.

The improvement between 2021-22 and 2022-23 can largely be attributed to the acquisitions of quality shooters Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky, Eeli Tolvanen, and a full year of Daniel Sprong, replacing the power play minutes of Marcus Johansson, Calle Jarnkrok, Morgan Geekie, Joonas Donskoi, and a portion of the minutes of Ryan Donato and Yanni Gourde.

It is probably a safe assumption to expect Montour to take Schultz’s power play time on ice, plus more. Stephenson will likely end up in the top five in power play time on ice next season. He will replace all of Wennberg’s power play time and, likely, Jaden Schwartz’s time as well, since they all play similar roles on the power play. Montour had the most power play time on ice for defensemen on Florida with 15,466 seconds, while Stephenson had the third most power play time on Vegas with 12,957 seconds. Clearly, Montour and Stephenson were key pieces of their respective teams’ power plays, but how much are they contributing to power play scoring?

Contribution of power play points

Evaluating how much a player contributes to scoring on a power play is a rather simple calculation: the sum of a player’s points divided by the total team’s power play goals.

This is how the Kraken looked last season:

Now let’s bring in Montour and Stephenson to see how they stack up.

It is not a perfect analysis, but if Montour and Stephenson contribute at the same rate with the Kraken as they did with their 2023-24 teams, they will certainly provide an upgrade over the players they will be replacing on the power play.

Chandler Stephenson’s passing

One thing public models cannot evaluate very well, if at all, is a player’s ability to pass the puck. Most public models use the play-by-play data published by the NHL for every game. If you scan through any game’s play-by-play data, you won’t see ‘pass’ as a play type. This unfairly handicaps the evaluation of elite passers. I am not saying that Chandler Stephenson is an elite passer, but I know he is at least a ‘very good’ passer.

Here are a couple examples of power play assists from Stephenson.

Adding a player like Stephenson to the Kraken’s power play will be exciting to watch. He has the potential to elevate the play of those around him and could significantly increase the team’s execution and options on the power play.

Wrapping it up

The Kraken’s power play has steadily improved over the past three seasons, and the additions of Stephenson and Montour provide an opportunity to build on that momentum. Both players bring substantial power play experience and proven track records of contributing to their former teams’ success. Stephenson’s exceptional passing ability could be a game-changer, creating a more dynamic power play. While predicting the exact impact of these new additions is challenging, the potential for a more potent and effective power play is evident. As the season unfolds, it will be exciting to see how these changes translate on the ice and if the Kraken can become one of the top 10 power play teams in the league.

Understanding the AHL veteran rule and its impact on the Coachella Valley Firebirds

Understanding the AHL veteran rule and its impact on the Coachella Valley Firebirds

The Coachella Valley Firebirds have made it to the Calder Cup finals in each of their first two seasons. Despite the success, there has since been a lot of movement within the Firebirds roster this offseason, with several stalwarts moving on to new organizations and several new players being added to the fold.

There is nuance to American Hockey League roster-building rules that we suspect many fans may not know about, so we thought we should dig in to explain how that works and how it has influenced the Firebirds roster.

American Hockey League and the “veteran rule”

The primary purpose for the AHL is to be a developmental league for potential NHL players. To ensure the league remains focused on helping players progress through its ranks, it has rules on roster construction. The “veteran rule” requires the gameday roster to include the following:

  • A minimum of 12 skaters that have played fewer than 260 professional games – development players
  • A maximum of one skater that has played fewer than 320 professional games – veteran exempt player
  • A maximum of five skaters that have played over 320 professional games – veteran players

The roster breakdown applies to players that dress for each game, so it is possible to have more than five veterans on the roster, but only five can play on any given night. The veteran and veteran exempt classification only applies to players 25 years of age or older or as of July 1.

The calculation for determining the number of professional games played happens prior to the start of the season and is not adjusted during the season. For example, Cale Fleury was considered a development player during the 2023-24 season, since he started with 217 games played and was 24 years old. He had a birthday in November and finished the season with 282 professional games, which means he will be a veteran exempt player for the entire 2024-25 season, having passed the 260-game threshold.

Professional games are defined as games played in the NHL, AHL, and elite European leagues. Recognized elite European leagues include Svenska Hockeyligan (SHL, Sweden), Liiga (Finland), Kontinental Hockey League (KHL, Russia), Extraliga (ELH, Czech Republic), Deutsche Eishockey Liga (DEL, Germany) and National League (NL, Switzerland). Additionally only games played in European leagues after a player’s junior years count towards the veteran rule.

The veteran rule does not apply to goaltenders.

Coachella Valley Firebirds roster

Now, with the knowledge of the veteran rule, let’s take a closer look at how last season’s roster breaks down between development and veteran players. For the 2023-24 season, here are the player classifications (minimum 25 games played).

Unchanged 2024-25 roster

Hypothetically, if the roster remained unchanged going into the 2024-25 season, the breakdown would have been the following.

This is where we start to see the problem that has arisen for the Firebirds. To be in compliance with the veteran rule, the Firebirds would only be able to dress five of the nine veterans and one of the three veteran exempt players. To complicate matters, the Kraken need to ensure they have space for Jagger Firkus, David Goyette, Jani Nyman, and Ty Nelson, who are ready to join Seattle’s AHL affiliate.

Players that moved on

There are 10 Firebird players that have signed with another team or are currently free agents.

These players were without a contract heading into free agency. With eight of these players being veteran or veteran exempt, it was unrealistic for the Kraken to retain them all.

Of the 10 players, six signed with new teams in the first couple days of free agency, signaling they got a better offer or see a clearer path to the NHL with their new team. Of the four remaining free agents, Marian Studenic is the only stand-out with 44 points last season.

Peetro Seppälä who was a restricted free agent (RFA) was given a qualifying offer, so the Kraken retain his rights. He has signed with Örebro in Sweden.

Re-signed and added

The Kraken did re-sign veterans Max McCormick, John Hayden, and Gustav Olofsson. With Fleury moving to veteran exempt, the Kraken had one veteran exempt player and three veteran players going into free agency. This gives the Firebirds room to sign two veterans, and that is exactly what they did.

  • Mitchell Stephens (C) – Two years, $775K AAV, two-way contract – veteran
  • Maxime Lajoie (LD) – One year, $775K AAV, two-way contract – veteran

This gives the Firebirds a total of five veterans and one veteran exempt player. At this point, the Firebird roster is full in terms of veteran and veteran exempt players.

In addition to signing AHL veterans, the following players were signed:

  • Brandon Biro (LW) – One year, $775K AAV, two-way contract – development
  • Nikolas Brouillard (D) – One year, $775K AAV, two-way contract – development

Brandon Biro and Nikolas Brouillard are still classified as development players. They have 171 and 238 professional games respectively. This brings some experience to the roster but provides flexibility with the veteran rule.

Additional signings

  • Josh Mahura (LD) – One year, $775 AAV, one-way contract – veteran exempt
  • Ben Meyers (LW, C) – One year, $775K AAV, one-way contract – development

Josh Mahura and Ben Meyers are listed here because although they will compete for depth roles with the Kraken in training camp, we don’t believe they are guaranteed spots on the NHL roster.

Prospects typically do not fill the role of the healthy scratch, since it is usually better to get them playing time in the AHL. With this and their one-way deals in mind, Mahura and Meyers have inside tracks to making the big club.

2024-25 roster breakdown

Nothing is guaranteed until Training Camp, but Ryker Evans and Shane Wright appear poised to make the Kraken full-time in 2024-25. Assuming Mahura, Wright, and Evans are on the Kraken roster, here is how the Firebirds’ roster would look.

With this roster, the Firebirds are in compliance with the veteran rule, and they will maintain flexibility. There will also be options for filling out the Kraken roster if no additional offseason moves are made.

While it is a bummer to see players move on to other teams, it is part of the business side of hockey. Since the Expansion Draft, I have been hoping to see Kole Lind blossom into a full-time NHL player, but that just did not pan out for him in Coachella Valley or Seattle.


With the additions of the new prospects coming into Coachella, it will be exciting to see how these players perform at the next level.

Please comment below of you have any questions or thoughts on this veteran rule. You can also follow @blaizg on x.com

What the Seattle Kraken got in Alexis Bernier, pick No. 73 in the 2024 NHL Draft

What the Seattle Kraken got in Alexis Bernier, pick No. 73 in the 2024 NHL Draft

The Seattle Kraken drafted Alexis Bernier, a right-shot defenseman out of the QMJHL’s Baie-Comeau Drakkar with the No. 73 pick in the NHL Draft. Despite speculation the Seattle Kraken would invest on the blue line in this draft, the team came away from the first two rounds with three forwards: Berkly Catton, Julius Miettenen, and Nathan Villeneuve. Bernier, who played top-pair minutes for a Baie-Comeau club that made it to the QMJHL finals in 2023-24, was the first defenseman selected by Seattle.

This pick was a bit surprising based on the public rankings. Bernier’s highest ranking we tracked came from Elite Prospects, which had him at No. 100 overall. NHL Central Scouting ranked him the No. 62 North American skater.

Alexis Bernier defends Lleyton Roed at 2024 Kraken Development Camp

Evaluating Bernier, the prospect

Bernier played in all situations for Baie-Comeau, taking difficult matchups at 5-on-5 and logging minutes on both the power play and penalty kill. He’s a fluid mover and adept puck handler, and he was one of his junior team’s best players at breaking out of the defensive zone. 

Perhaps his strongest trait, according to scouts, is his hockey sense, which allows him to diagnose and shut down opposing offensive chances before they materialize. Among defensemen, he was second on his team and seventh in the QMJHL with an on-ice plus-minus of +38 during the 2023-24 regular season. 

He has adequate size and bulk at 6-foot-1, 197 pounds, and demonstrated the ability to box out opponents at the net front at Kraken Development Camp. I saw a very smooth and polished skater. On the other hand, I saw a shot and offensive skill level that were a notch or two below other offensive-minded blue liners in attendance. In addition to adding strength, the in-zone offensive aspects of the game will be a key area of development for Bernier. 

While it is very early, Bernier looked like a third-pair or depth projection at camp.

Alexis Bernier player profile

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPtsPIMPlus-Minus
2022-23Baie-Comeau DrakkarQMJHL644131730-11
2023-24Baie-Comeau DrakkarQMJHL67427315638
Data from Elite Prospects

Grading the pick on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board

The Sound Of Hockey Big Board had Bernier at No. 122 overall. On most public analyst boards, he was a mid- to late-round consideration. Bob McKenzie’s scout-informed list had Bernier listed among 10 honorable mentions after a ranked list of the top 90 players. So, the 73rd overall pick was either the early edge of his range or a few rounds early. My data-only ranking had Bernier at No. 341 overall, though that ranking favors scorers. 

Video scouting Bernier

Scouting breakdown

Strengths:

“His head swivels in the defensive zone. He locates attackers all around him and adopts the right positioning and stick angle to nullify as many of their plays as possible on them. And then, with the calm of a veteran, he picks up the puck, turns toward the play, and launches the perfect pass to a teammate inside space.

“Bernier’s breakout abilities help him cut down his defensive zone time. They contribute to his shutdown abilities. As much as possible, he keeps the puck in control of his team with his poise and clever, simple passes. If a teammate gets open in the offensive zone, he spots him. And if another frees himself for a breakaway, he lands the stretch pass.” – Elite Prospects

“He’s a fast, agile defenseman who really knows how to utilize his skating ability. He loves using it to keep the tempo high, whether that’s with his gap control, man-to-man defending, breaking pucks out, or activating from the offensive blueline. Despite not being overly big he really plays hard and with an edge. He might never be a true specialist on either side of special teams, but he’ll be someone who can comfortably handle the responsibilities of both.

“The Drakkar are going to be top contenders in the QMJHL for the next two seasons, and Bernier seems like the type of player who elevates his game to new heights during a deep playoff run and then never looks back.” – McKeen’s

Weaknesses:

“He makes the occasional poor read under pressure but also shows the skills to manipulate pressure. The skill levels and skating are both questions. Fluid, but a bit upright and unable to really correct mistakes or separate from opponents with speed… He could be a mid-to-late-rounder. Not sure that any of his dimensions rank highly enough to project him confidently to the NHL, but his foundation of skills grades highly.”  – Elite Prospects

Final thoughts

As mentioned above, based on scoring data only, I had Bernier as a borderline 2024 NHL Draft prospect. Players of his profile rarely develop scoring touch later in their careers, so Bernier likely needs to be a defensive standout to progress beyond the AHL. And, while I saw some building blocks at camp, he looks like he needs to take developmental leaps on that side of his game too. 

During the draft I admit that I was disappointed that the Kraken targeted a defensive defenseman at No. 73, given the team’s desperate need for skill and offense from the back end and the availability of a few other gambles, such as Henry Mews (74 overall pick to Calgary) and Luca Marrelli (86 overall to Columbus).

Only time will tell if Bernier hits. But, even if he does hit, he’s highly unlikely to be the kind of top-of-the-lineup defender many were anticipating the Kraken would land in this draft. Bernier’s skill level simply didn’t compare to some of the team’s better blue line prospects at Development Camp, much less surpass it.  

None of this is Bernier’s fault, of course. But Seattle’s blue line depth chart–both from a quality and quantity perspective–remains a question.

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

Intentional or not, the Kraken are strengthening their roots by drafting local players

Intentional or not, the Kraken are strengthening their roots by drafting local players

It’s no secret that the Seattle Kraken, since the announcement of the 32nd NHL franchise in 2018, have worked hard at establishing their roots in any way possible in the Pacific Northwest.

From doing pop-up community events throughout the PNW to inking a new TV deal aimed at reaching a wider swath of fans across the region, it’s clear they’re trying to create and sustain lasting bonds within the local community.

Much of the most die-hard fan engagement in the early days came from the WHL fanbases in the U.S. Division, where the Kraken’s roots are grounded with the core group of people that drove the interest of attaining a franchise in the first place.

In their inaugural season, as a means of thanking those loyal fans from the markets that pushed for the franchise, the Kraken chose to hold their home preseason games in Spokane, Everett, and Kent while Climate Pledge Arena was in the final stages of construction. When they could have chosen one venue and stuck with it for that preseason, the team decided it was better for engagement purposes to do the games at those three separate junior hockey venues across Washington State.

We have since seen on several occasions that the organization has a penchant for bringing players into the fold with local ties. This is likely just by happenstance, but it does create some nice benefits for both the team and its fans, with whom the Kraken continue to foster relationships.

They’ve continued to nurture partnerships with the local WHL clubs and cities ever since the “Three-Rink Rush” days, but three years later, keeping a local flair in the players they employ is helping to strengthen those bonds in a more organic way.

WHL-heavy NHL Draft

The Kraken started off on Night 1 of this summer’s NHL Draft with the selection of Berkly Catton at No. 8 overall from the Spokane Chiefs. One of the most skillful and intelligent forwards in the class, he led all WHL draft-eligible players in goals (54) and points (116) in 2023-24.

The selection sent Spokane fans into a frenzy.

On Day 2, Seattle stuck with the theme by taking three more WHL forwards, selecting power forward Julius Miettinen from the Everett Silvertips, then striking in the later rounds with two solid two-way forwards in Swift Current’s Clarke Caswell and Red Deer’s Ollie Josephson.

When the draft concluded on Saturday, a total of 34 WHL players were selected throughout both Days 1 and 2, which was the most of any eligible developmental league in the world. The Kraken’s four picks were the most of any NHL team.

Add in last season’s selections of Everett’s Kaden Hammell and Tri-City’s Lukas Dragicevic, as well as Tyson Jugnauth joining Portland midseason, and the Kraken now have at least one player representing almost every team in the division. Beyond the U.S. division, Seattle also selected Caden Price from Kelowna in 2023 and Jagger Firkus from Moose Jaw in 2022.

Ron Francis in his media availability after the draft detailed why his staff leaned towards the WHL.

“Our player development staff, as it plays out, doesn’t have to travel very far to see some of our players now,” Francis said. “The WHL has always been a good league, and the cities around Seattle have always had good teams and good players.”

While all those players in their own rights were worthy of being selected, the Kraken notably avoided drafting a defenseman until Round 3, which was shocking considering many pegged them to lean heavily on the blue line this draft given their shallow defense pool. Touted defensive prospects Zeev Buium or Zayne Parekh were a couple of the names that were available at No. 8.

Of course, Seattle scouts players across the globe, so it’s impossible to claim that the team is specifically looking locally, but having youngsters develop in the team’s backyard definitely makes for easier logistics.

“Our budget just went down for travel,” Kraken director of player development Jeff Tambellini joked last week about selecting Catton and Miettinen in the first two rounds. “But to have Berkly Catton so close, to have Miettinen so close, it’s fantastic. Any chance they get to see our team play and be around our group, the better, so we’re really exeited in the development staff that we’re going to see those guys a lot.”

Is staying local a good strategy?

Staying local is certainly enticing. Why not just go with what you’re most familiar and comfortable with instead of taking a shot in the dark? If you rank two players similarly but have seen one 10 times and the other once or twice, it becomes very easy to lean toward that player you’ve seen 10 times.

But the benefits of having the player close don’t really kick in until after the player is selected, when the Kraken can take a hands-on approach to development.

Kraken prospect and Everett Silvertips defenseman Kaden Hammell emphasized having that familiarity with Seattle has been helpful for his progression as a player.

“Not many players get to play as close [to their NHL team] as I do here,” Hammell said. “With Seattle being right down the road from Everett, anything that I have needed, they’ve been amazing with.”

Portland’s Jugnauth shared a similar sentiment on the latest episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast.

“Seattle would be great [at making] an effort to see me when I was in Wisconsin, but obviously when they’re coming out there, it’s just to see me,” Jugnauth said. “But now with [Hammell and Miettinen] in Everett, and [Catton] in Spokane, all of a sudden they’re around all the time.”

While the development angle is great, there are always pros and cons when it comes to staying nearby for scouting. While both players and management can make it easier on themselves to access one another whenever they need, a drawback to this approach is it could be limiting the Kraken’s talent pool slightly.

Of course, the Kraken do not limit themselves to drafting locally, and there’s no doubt they do their due diligence when it comes to deciding on the players that enter the organization.

Fans like local talent

We do believe it will be a long-term challenge to retain season ticket holders and keep the casual game-attending audience engaged in Seattle. Having players that were either born in Washington or developed their game in Washington seems to help create connections between fans and players, as the fan relates to the player more.

There’s no better example of this than with the home-state signing of Kailer Yamamoto last summer. While it was a low-risk deal for the Kraken to make at just one year, $1.5 million, Yamamoto was never a great fit for Seattle. We have to think that he was more interested in playing for the Kraken, and the Kraken may have become interested in him at least in small part because of him being born and raised in Spokane and previously playing for the Chiefs.

Sure, there was some upside he could have tapped into, having that first-round pedigree from 2017, but Francis even alluded to Yamamoto’s local ties in the initial press release following the acquisition.

“He played junior hockey in his hometown of Spokane, Washington, and we’re happy to welcome him to the Kraken,” Francis said on July 1, 2023.

Yamamoto wound up appearing in 59 games as a Kraken, scoring only eight goals in his tenure and averaging five fewer minutes than he previously grew accustomed to in Edmonton. Still, there was a fervent group of fans that was not shy in telling us how much they loved Yamamoto and how furious they were any time he was left out of the lineup.

On the other side of the local coin, Oliver Bjorkstrand doesn’t necessarily belong in the same category as Yamamoto given how much more productive he has been as a member of the Kraken. But it’s important to note that him being a former Portland Winterhawk allowed the large and rabid audience down in the ‘Rose City’ to have an in when it came to keeping a rooting interest in the team.

The Kraken aren’t unique in selecting players from their own implicit biases, as many teams boast either hometown or local products of their own. Correlation isn’t always causation in this case.

But with the talent pool being less concentrated in the Pacific Northwest compared to the combined other regions on the continent, and for them to acquire the talent from around here as often as they do, whether it be via the draft or acquisition, it’s easier to see the patterns start to emerge and wonder if there’s reason for their choices beyond impact on the ice.

Data Dump: Digging into the 2024-25 Seattle Kraken schedule

Data Dump: Digging into the 2024-25 Seattle Kraken schedule

We just had a very busy week covering the Seattle Kraken, and something that might have been overlooked was the official release of the NHL schedule for the 2024-25 season. As I do every year, I enjoy looking at a few key data points across the league to see how the Kraken schedule stacks up against that of other teams.

Travel distance by NHL team

Based on the location of some NHL franchises, it is expected that certain teams will log more miles in a season compared to the rest of the league. Seattle is one of those teams that needs to travel more than most.

The Kraken have consistently fallen in the top 10 for travel miles, and coming in at third place for most miles traveled in 2024-25 will be the highest Seattle has been on this list. The Kraken will travel 3,000 more miles this coming season compared to last season.

Here is a look at all the teams by division.

The Pacific Division teams, as a whole, end up traveling more than the three other divisions.

Number of road trips

A side benefit of being based outside the northeastern corner of North America is that you tend to have fewer road trips.

As you can see, Seattle has the second-fewest number of road trips across the league. Of course, that means the actual road trips themselves will be longer.

Note that because of the league-wide break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, Seattle will have no home stands that start in February this coming season.

Back-to-back games

Another element of the NHL schedule I like to review is the number of back-to-back games for each team. The Kraken come in close to the league average on this.

Other odds and ends of the Kraken schedule

  • As many people have noticed already, the home opener is at 1:30 p.m. on a Tuesday as the NHL hopes to recreate an MLB Opening Day-type vibe with a triple-header on ESPN.
  • The Kraken have 11 Saturday home games this coming season, up from nine during the 2023-24 season. I’ve joked that this is bad news, considering they did not win any of those Saturday games last season.
  • Alex Wennberg’s first game as a visitor to Climate Pledge Arena will be on Nov. 30 when the Sharks visit Seattle.
  • The Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers visit Seattle on Dec. 10.
  • The Utah Hockey Club makes its first appearance at Climate Pledge Arena on Dec. 30, and the Kraken’s first game in Utah is not until April 8.
  • We discussed it on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, but if you are looking for a fun road trip, the Kraken play three games in four days when they visit the New York area for an extended weekend in early December.
  • There are three days when the Kraken, Seattle Thunderbirds, and Everett Silvertips all have home games this coming season: Nov. 27, Jan. 18, and March 14.

What did I miss? Are there any home games you are particularly excited about? What about a possible road trip you’re considering? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.