The Seattle Kraken selected forward Berkly Catton of the Spokane Chiefs with the No. 8 overall pick during the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft Friday. Catton joins Lukas Dragicevic (Tri-City; 2023 second-round pick) and Kaden Hammell (Everett; 2023 fifth-round pick) as in-state WHL players drafted by Seattle.
“[Catton] has got elite hockey sense, real good speed, [and] high compete level. He’s a very high-end offensive player,” Ron Francis said Friday after the team made the selection. “That was the guy we wanted, so we’re excited.”
Catton led all CHL first-time draft-eligible prospects in points and was fourth overall in the WHL in scoring during the 2023-24 season.
Quick thoughts on the pick
This pick is at once unexpected and not surprising. It’s unexpected because a few high-end blueliners were still on the board at No. 8. The vast majority of industry analysts had Seattle taking a defenseman, even if it meant dropping into what I’d consider the second tier of players at that position, such as Carter Yakemchuk.
On the other hand, Berkly Catton was ranked No. 6 on the final Sound Of Hockey Big Board. And if you only remember one stat about Berkly Catton, try this one: he is one of four first-time draft eligible CHL players since 2000 to post 115-plus points and 50-plus goals. The other three? Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, and Connor Bedard.
Furthermore, we should not discount the position value if Catton can stick at center. In my mind, I had been projecting Catton as a play-driving winger in the longer term, but many scouts disagree, and Ron Francis spoke about Catton as a center prospect after the pick.
Elite Prospects, which grades the individual skills of draft-eligible prospects, had Catton as the third-best puckhandler, fourth-best skater, fifth-best passer, and 10th-best shooter in the draft. They also deemed him to have the fourth-best “hockey sense” in the draft, which is a stand-in for on-ice intelligence and gameplay instincts. All told, Elite Prospects gave Catton the sixth-highest average skill grade among skaters in the draft, with only his physicality grading below average.
In my pre-draft piece, I wrote that “Berkly Catton [] is a deadly offensive package, combining skill, skating, and offensive instincts. If he stood 6-foot-2 instead of 5-foot-10.25 with the same skill level, he’d be considered as early as the second overall pick.”
Chris Peters compared Catton toTim Stutzle. Corey Pronman though Catton reminded him of 2022 No. 3 overall pick Logan Cooley. For Elite Prospects, Catton brings shades of Cooley or Troy Terry.
So, Catton is a not a “reach” or “off-the-board” pick at all. Particularly given that Seattle has shown a willingness to take shorter forwards and is still looking for high-end offensive firepower in the organization, the pick makes plenty of sense and good pay significant dividends into the future.
At the time the Kraken drafted, Catton was the second-highest ranked remaining player on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board at No. 6 overall. Only Zeev Buium was ranked higher at No. 5. (Buium ultimately fell to Minnesota at No. 12, so it seems the league did not agree with the Big Board on him.) I had Catton as the No. 10 overall player in the draft based on my data-only approach. Tony Ferrari of The Hockey News, Smaht Scouting, and Scouching all had Catton ranked as the No. 3 prospect in this class, his highest position on any public draft board we tracked.
How does he look on the ice?
What are scouts saying?
Strengths:
“Berkly Catton is one of the most fun players to watch in this draft. Give him time and space, and he’ll make you pay; try to take it away, and he’ll cut through your formation anyway like a hot knife through butter.
“It’s on the rush where he’s most effective. A series of crossovers allows him to build speed as he plans his attack, reading and reacting to what’s in front of him, using a series of weight shifts and handling moves to navigate the neutral zone as he drives play toward the opposition goal. With this ability comes cunning in the form of a sophisticated delay game that allows him to level up and attack with support or connect with trailing linemates as they enter the play.” – Elite Prospects
“Catton may be the best transition forward in the draft class, thanks to his combination of skating and intelligence. He can gash a defensive unit through the middle of the ice with ease. Catton identifies skating lanes and plays to his opponent’s weaknesses. He knows where to put the puck when attacking a defender 1-on-1, forcing them to defend in uncomfortable and compromising positions.
“Catton is arguably the smartest player in the NHL draft class, constantly looking to create small advantages, chain them together and eventually create a big advantage. Catton makes life easy on his teammates, allowing them to play to their strengths while he fills in their gaps. He is a playmaker at heart, but he showed this season he can make goalies pay if they don’t respect his shot, especially when he gets into the home plate area.” – Ferrari
“I value players who elevate others greatly. Players who can move the puck themselves, move the puck to others, find targets, hit them accurately, and finish chances they get from others. Catton checks every one of those boxes in my books. His tracked data is outstanding almost across the board… Brilliant with the puck with his pass lane creation skill and one of the few players I trust to run a line this year as he is, he’ll almost certainly be drafted too late and someone is going to be very happy.” – Scouching
Weaknesses:
“The Spokane center isn’t the biggest player, and he will need to bulk up, but he’s not some 5-foot-8, 150-pound forward who gets intimidated easily. Catton has the potential to stick at center long-term despite his size. He is the exception to the rule because of his mobility and smarts.” – Ferrari
“The only hangup is that he isn’t the most physical centre out there, but he’s so smart with his positioning and such a great support player that surrounding him with players that can fill that gap should give him the space to be [himself at the NHL level].” – Scouching
“Of course, there’s always a catch with any prospect, and this is true of Catton. In his case, it’s one of efficiency. He’s prone to throwing pucks away with hope passes and lacks that extra layer of patience that defines most top playmakers. One can wonder to what extent playing on a team with as little firepower as Spokane helped foster these bad habits, but they’re there all the same.
“There’s also the question of how well he will handle the rigors of the NHL game. His ability to take pucks off the wall and get inside was inconsistent across many of our viewings, and there’s a chance he struggles to generate offense when he’s not attacking in space or off the rush, which says nothing of whether he’ll stick at center or not.” – Elite Prospects
Expert reaction
“I’m a huge fan of Catton’s game. I thought he was one of the most dynamic players in the draft. Given how much Seattle needed a premier defense prospect, it’s a bit surprising that they went and took a forward, but if they were going to take one, Catton is more than reasonable at this slot. He has top-line forward potential and could be a star if he truly hits. Teams were worried by his size, but everything else about his game was a major positive.” – Corey Pronman, The Athletic
What’s next for Berkly Catton?
Catton will very likely return to the WHL next season and figures to compete for a WHL scoring title in a high-ice-time, first-line role for Spokane. After that, he will likely get a longer look with Seattle, but, as a January, 2006 birthdate, he’ll be in the position of returning to the WHL again for the 2025-26 season if he doesn’t make the NHL roster.
I’d still project him to slot on the wing eventually, particularly if Matty Beniers and Shane Wright remain in the fold, but he looks like a solid bet to produce 60-plus points annually as a top-six forward when he reaches his prime in about three years.
Final thoughts
While a team doesn’t go into the draft looking for a player at a “need” position in the first round like an NFL team might do, the organizational picture matters. So I can’t help but wonder whether the team might have more strongly considered taking a swing on a high-upside blueliner like Zeev Buium or Zayne Parekh if Eduard Sale were looking like the dynamic offensive player the team expected him to be when making him the 20th overall pick in 2023. I know Catton projects (for some) as a center, and Sale is a pure winger, but both are offense-first forwards.
On the other hand, the Kraken are a very analytically inclined organization, and macro studies of first-round pick success rates indicate that forwards hit at a better rate than defensemen. This likely factored into the team’s decision-making process too.
Kraken general manager Ron Francis has often said in the past the he looks to his scouts and analytics department to support each other before making a move. This looks like a pick where both sides of the front office were able to find common ground, even if it bucked the common wisdom that Seattle may look to add to their blue line.
The team figures to have opportunities to add a defenseman in the second round. Henry Mews, Spencer Gill, and Leon Muggli are three blueliners who could represent good value for Seattle at that point.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Today is our third annual, seven-round Seattle Kraken mock draft.
Mock draft rules
As I did last year, I will presume that players will come off the board in the order predicted by the Big Board. For example, if a player is slotted at No. 37 on the Big Board, I treat that player as unavailable to the Kraken with their first second-round pick at No. 40. In highlighting potential “alternative” picks, I’ll mention a few players who could be in range if they “fall” to Seattle’s pick. For now, I won’t “predict” any trades, because this is both difficult and unlikely when it comes to a Ron Francis-led operation.
I’d love it if someone wanted to use the Sound Of Hockey Big Board and give me their alternative mock draft using these same rules. Send it in the comments below or on X, formerly known as Twitter, tagging @deepseahockey and @sound_hockey.
My first two picks for the Kraken in that midseason mock, Zeev Buium and Jett Luchanko, have been two of the biggest risers from the midseason Big Board to the final version I will use today. Buium jumped from No. 11 on the midseason Big Board to No. 5 on the final Big Board; Luchanko rose from No. 44 to No. 22. I take some pride in correctly identifying two players that I believed the market was undervaluing at the time, but the final Big Board has seemingly pushed both players out of reach for Seattle with its first two picks. I continue to like both players very much if they happen to linger on the board for Seattle.
OK, without further ado, let’s draft.
The 2024 Seattle Kraken mock draft
Round 1, Pick 8: Zayne Parekh, RD, Saginaw Spirit (OHL) Age: 18 | Height: 6-foot-0.25 | Weight: 178 | Shot: Right Big Board: 8 | Data Score: 3 | Goals: 33 | Assists: 63 | Games Played: 66
Scout’s view: “Parekh was far and away the best offensive defenseman in junior hockey this year, and I think the upside of him being a devastatingly good point producer will allow him to go early.” – Shawn Ellis, Daily Faceoff
One stat to know: Parekh scored the most points by a CHL defenseman in his draft-eligible season since 1989-90.
Notes: My gut tells me Seattle is most likely to end up with left defenseman Sam Dickinson after Zeev Buium (and perhaps Zayne Parekh) come off the board earlier. But the Sound Of Hockey Big Board has both Buium (No. 5) and Dickinson (No. 7) off the board by No. 8. The Big Board could prove precinct; with noted size-ist Bill Armstrong and Utah Hockey Club in need of a blueliner, it’s entirely possible Dickinson goes to Utah at No. 6.
Buium would be the ideal scenario for the Kraken at the eighth pick should he fall that far. His absolute ceiling may be a just shade below Parekh, but, unlike Parekh, I view his absolute floor as a middle-lineup NHL regular. Compared by analyst Chris Peters to Kris Letang, Buium should go before pick No. 8.
For my money, Parekh (No. 8 on the Big Board) has the highest upside of any defenseman in the draft. Compared to Erik Karlsson, he brings game-breaking offensive instincts and passing skill that rises the tide of offensive production around him. He projects as a power play ace who could almost single-handedly transform a team’s unit.
Defensively, the reviews are mixed at this point, but there is little doubt about his effort and commitment. With that endorsement, he should get to a competent level eventually. Even if you always have to protect him from the most difficult defensive matchups–as Karlsson’s teams have to do–Parekh will be playable if his current offense translates.
On the other hand, if his offensive skill and instincts continue to develop as some analysts expect, he could be a No. 1 offensive defenseman and complimentary face of the Kraken franchise with Matty Beniers and Shane Wright for the next decade.
Alternatives: Zeev Buium LD, Sam Dickinson LD
Round 2, Pick 40: John Mustard, F, Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL) Age: 17 | Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 186 pounds | Shot: Left Big Board: 50 | Data Score: 41 | Goals: 29 | Assists: 27 | Games Played: 60
Scout’s view: “[Mustard is] a tremendous skater who uses his speed to get out in transition, turn defenders with the puck, get on pucks and win races. A Providence commit, he should fit well with the Friars’ staff and identity as a hardworking forward who gets after it… His athleticism, skating, competitiveness, and well-rounded skill will carry him a long way. If he can continue to develop his feel for the game, he’ll be an NHLer.” – Scott Wheeler, The Athletic
One stat to know: Mustard is one of the youngest top players in the draft, born just 30 days before the cutoff to be draft eligible.
Notes: Ideally, the Kraken catch a player who falls from the borderline first-/second-round tier here like the team did in 2022 when it grabbed Jagger Firkus in this range. Brantford Bulldog winger Marek Vanacker is a player I’d like to see Seattle grab from the bottom of that tier.
For his part, Mustard reminds me a bit of the Carson Rehkopf–a toolsy forward with natural skating and scoring skill who is just starting to put it together and could explode in his draft-plus-one season. Mustard’s calling card is his pace and straight-line speed. Together with an NHL-caliber frame, he’s an easy projection as a scoring middle-six winger if he can continue to meet development milestones.
Worth noting, John Mustard also has an incredible name.
Alternatives: Marek Vanacker F, Henry Mews RD, Luke Misa F, Matvei Gridin F, Leon Muggli LD
Henry Mews is a high-upside offensive right-shot defenseman who reminds a bit of Lukas Dragicevic with better skating fundamentals. He’s the best value projected to be on the board at No. 40 based on my “data score” approach. Luke Misa, brother of the “exceptional” Michael, plays at a high pace and scored at a high level in the OHL, but is a smaller player and faces some questions about whether his game will translate. He reminds me a bit of David Goyette as a draft prospect. Matvei Gridin led the USHL in scoring for the Muskegon Lumberjacks. He’d be a decent data-based wager, similar to several Kraken second round draft picks in the last few drafts. Muggli may not have terrific upside, but he looks like an easy projection to the NHL in a middle-lineup role to me.
Round 2, Pick 63: Spencer Gill, RD, Rimouski Océanic (QMJHL) Age: 17 | Height: 6-foot-3.75 | Weight: 186 pounds | Shot: Right Big Board: 67 | Data Score: 48 | Goals: 12 | Assists: 34 | Games Played: 65
Scout’s view: “Gill sure is one big boy, and while there are still times where he looks like a baby moose on skates, it has been great to watch him make more and more progress with his footwork as he continues to grow into his body. He likes to regularly join the rush, and when he does, he can really push opposing defenders back because he can cover so much ice in just a few strides. He also keeps progressively adding power to both his upper and lower body, which will continue to help support the good instincts that he already has and utilizes at both ends of the ice.” – McKeen’s
One stat to know: Gill was third in scoring among first-time draft-eligible CHL defensemen at least 6-foot-3, behind only consensus top picks Sam Dickinson and Carter Yakemchuk.
Notes: In my opinion, Gill has been a perplexing miss by public scouts. Throughout the development of the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board, Gill was hovering in the 70’s. Viewing him higher than that, I had been locked into this slot in my early iterations of this mock draft. Thankfully for Gill it seems like NHL teams haven’t been sleeping on him quite as much as the public analysts. Bob McKenzie’s list for TSN published on Tuesday–which is built on interviews with NHL scouts–had Gill at No. 53. That feels a bit more reasonable for Gill and means we should put this mock pick in pencil, not ink.
Gill is an almost 6-foot-4 right-shot defenseman with offensive instincts and scoring data to support a mid-second-round pick, and he plays for a junior team in Rimouski reputed for developing NHL defensemen. He’s raw in many areas and will have to work hard to clear the developmental hurdles ahead of him, but the upside is a top-of-the-lineup right-shot defenseman. This profile is often talked about in the first round. Indeed, players like EJ Emery, Dominik Badinka, Charlie Elick, and others are commonly referenced as borderline first rounders despite similarly significant flaws and worse scoring production than Gill. I’m betting on Gill.
Alternatives: Luca Marrelli RD, Jacob Battaglia F, Anthony Romani F
Round 3, Pick 73: Anthony Romani, F, North Bay Battalion (OHL) Age: 18 (re-draft) | Height: 6-foot-0 | Weight: 179 pounds | Shot: Right Big Board: 104 | Data Score: 18 | Goals: 58 | Assists: 53 | Games Played: 68
Scout’s view: “The first thing that stands out about Romani’s game is his hockey IQ. Even last year, that was something that popped, and the results followed with a 68-point increase to 111 this year in his third campaign with North Bay… He has a remarkable shot and his skating continues to get better, but he needs to work on his defensive game still.” – Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff
One stat to know: Anthony Romani led the OHL in goal-scoring, surpassing Carson Rehkopf despite being six months younger than the Kraken forward.
Notes: The skills aren’t flashy like they are with Rehkopf, but Romani has strong offensive instincts, and you cannot ignore the immense production. He may not have the athleticism to be a long-term NHL lineup stalwart, but if he is able to maximize his traits and traverse a path similar to Tye Kartye, there is enough goal-scoring talent there to succeed.
Alternatives: Jacob Battaglia F, Andrei Krutov F, Jakub Fibigr LD, Clarke Caswell F
Round 3, Pick 88: Kim Saarinen G, HPK (U20 SM-sarja) Age: 17 | Height: 6-foot-4 | 181 pounds Big Board: 105 | Data Score: N/A | GAA.: 2.41 | Save percentage: .917
Scout’s view: “[Saarinen’s] 6-foot-4 frame does offer some clear advantages, especially covering high when he’s down in the reverse-VH position, but he plays a surprisingly active style for someone of his stature. He keeps excellent access to his edges and remains patient when the puck is passed around the zone, capable of making quick adjustments in either direction. He’s tough to beat because of his edgework, even when the opponent is able to pull off quick-developing passing plays.” – Elite Prospects
Notes: The Kraken have drafted a European goalie in each of their first three drafts. General manager Ron Francis, for his part, has drafted a goalie in each of his previous seven drafts as a GM. I can’t claim to be a goalie expert, but I noted that Saarinen is frequently ranked as the second Finnish goalie in this draft behind Eemil Vinni (No. 78) and was atop the depth chart for Finland at international junior tournaments. His junior production was also mildly better than that posted by Vinni. Elite Prospects, which grades component goalie skills, gave him the fourth-highest composite skill grade in this class.
Alternatives: Pavel Moysevich G, Ilya Nabakov G, Veeti Louhivaara G
Round 4, Pick 105: Riley Patterson, F, Barrie Colts (OHL) Age: 18 | Height: 6-foot-0.25 | Weight: 193 | Shot: Right Big Board: 118 | Data Score: 57 | Goals: 29 | Assists: 33 | Games Played: 68
Scout’s view: “[T]he floodgates opened and the points really started to come [for Patterson] in the second half [of the 2023-24 season], climbing to a point per game as one of the Colts’ top offensive players by season’s end. He had some learning to do defensively to start the year in the OHL in terms of picking up marks and keeping his feet moving, but he adjusted quickly and showed a real commitment to improving his play off of the puck and upping his pace when he doesn’t have it (he has really gotten after it and shown a real desire to get to pucks so that he can make plays as the year has progressed).” – Scott Wheeler, The Athletic
Notes: Patterson gets above-average grades on his shot and his skating from Elite Prospects. He plays with free-and-easy mobility at a size that looks NHL-projectible. His skating and production are both a tick behind Mustard, but otherwise he brings a similar profile. His production ascended in his draft year similar to David Goyette’s draft-eligible year.
Alternatives: Mac Swanson F, James Reeder F, Ilya Protas F, Jiri Tichacek LD
Round 6, Pick 169: Austin Burnevik, F, Madison Capitols (USHL) Age: 19 (re-draft) | Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 201 pounds | Shot: Left Big Board: 170 | Data Score: 59 | Goals: 40 | Assists: 31 | Games Played: 61
Scout’s view: “A St. Cloud State commit, Burnevik is a well-rounded player. He has a clear understanding of the power game he knows he needs to play to be successful. He controls the wall well, but he’s also very focused on getting pucks to the middle of the ice and to the net. He plays physical. He has good hands. He is a committed and effective two-way player. His future success will be completely tied to his ability to continue to improve his skating. It’s already improved from last year, especially his stride length and top speed. However, there’s still work to go. We love Burnevik’s progression and believe that he could end up being a quality bottom-six NHL player in the future.” – McKeen’s
Notes: A re-draft candidate who didn’t break through with the U.S. National Team Development Program in 2022-23, Brunevik found his game in 2023-24 for Madison, potting 40 goals and demonstrating a combination of skill and size that looks projectable to the NHL to me. Scouts are down on his skating, but it doesn’t look disqualifying to me, particularly in a development system run by Jessica Campbell.
Alternatives: Kenta Isogai F, Gavin Hodnett F
Round 7, Pick 201: Kaden Pitre, F, Flint Firebirds (OHL) Age: 18 | Height: 5-foot-11 | Weight: 168 pounds | Shot: Left Big Board: 231 | Data Score: 91 | Goals: 10 | Assists: 20 | Games Played: 35
Scout’s view: “Right now, Pitre’s impact is most visible along the walls and inside the defensive zone. He’s a proactive, engaged defender who chokes out attacks early through his supporting movement and physicality. He doesn’t just enter battles with speed; he goes out of his way to make early contact and never stops battling. He finishes every check and creates chaos around the net. Pitre also has the beginnings of a dynamic transition game. He beats opponents with weight shifts and fakes, then drives the net or cuts inside if the defense backs off.” – Elite Prospects
Notes: It’s rare to see a player with center potential and pedigree available this late in the draft, but Pitre was a bit underexposed in his draft season because of an injury. He has breakout potential as a tenacious bottom-six center.
Alternatives: Dylan Hryckowian F, Beau Jelsma F, Dalyn Wakely F
Round 7, Pick 202: Tommaso De Luca, F, HC Ambrì-Piotta (NL) Age: 19 (re-draft) | Height: 6-foot-0 | Weight: 187 pounds | Shot: Left Big Board: 324 | Data Score: 39 | Goals: 11 | Assists: 9 | Games Played: 41
Scout’s view: “In transition, De Luca uses weaving rushes that get defenders moving in the wrong direction, deft passes through defenders, and sudden delays to wait for support. He reads opponents’ momentum, fakes, then cuts inside the space they exited. Constant changes of pace confuse defenders, while shot fakes and look offs in open ice extend passing lanes.” – Elite Prospects
Notes: De Luca was productive with the Spokane Chiefs in 2022-23 but went undrafted. He subsequently returned to Europe and produced in the top Swiss professional league, one of the best leagues in the world. The defense is still a question mark, but he has sufficient athleticism and skating skill, and the scoring production has been there. Plus, he’s Italian, and I did a fair amount of my 2024 NHL Draft preparations from that beautiful country. Will that factor into the Kraken’s decision here? Probably not, but you never know.
Alternatives: Hugo Fransson LD, Ben Robertson LD, Jere Lassila F
Last draft thoughts
With a few last draft thoughts still rattling around in my head, let’s test the patience of the editor in chief, who surely is ready to smash his computer due to the length of this article, and dive into a six pack of odds and ends.
1. Reviewing the 2023 Seattle Kraken mock draft
While it’s only a one-year sample size, my “rules” yielded a plausible Kraken draft last year. In fact, all but the last two selections I mocked to the Kraken last year were actually available to Seattle at the specified picks, and most went very shortly after:
2023 Big Board rank: 246 | Actual 2023 NHL Draft pick: 110 (Montreal)
With another year of data, I’ll readily admit that would not have been a perfect draft. But, one year on, when looking at stats only, it rivals Seattle’s actual draft–headlined by Musty, Brzustewicz, and Hameenaho, all of whom are trending toward NHL futures, with Conmy, Bertucci, and McCarthy close behind.
2. The Russia factor
The Kraken have not drafted a player who resides in Russia or Belarus since the conflict involving those countries commenced more than two years ago. There are a few potential explanations.
First, it is possible this is mere coincidence. The Kraken continue to scout and rank those players on their draft board, but it could be that they’ve happened to see value elsewhere the last two years.
Second, it is also possible those players are off their board entirely until these external factors are resolved to the team’s satisfaction.
Third, it may be that Seattle is open to drafting a Russian player, in theory, but the team is downgrading those prospects due to concerns about those players coming to the NHL and because in-person scouting viewings are not as possible as they were three years back. The consequence may be the same as scenario No. 1 above, but the team’s view is different.
The third option strikes me as the most likely, but I don’t have any inside information on it. I admit that I did not view the Russian players as closely as others, given the team’s track record. But I am curious to find out: Will the Seattle Kraken draft a Russian or Belarusian player this year?
3. Beckett Sennecke chatter piques my interest
As I mentioned yesterday, I think there is a top-seven in this class: Celebrini, Buium, Parekh, Dickinson, Levshunov, Demidov, and Lindstrom. And it just so happens the Kraken draft eighth–meaning the team could theoretically miss out on all seven.
This is why it piqued my interest when Chris Peters, on a recent episode of his excellent Talking Hockey Sense podcast, said there was a “deafening rumor” coming from scouts around the NHL that Beckett Sennecke could be in play to be drafted in the six-to-eight range. We never hear anything from Seattle, but it’s implied by this rumor that Seattle could have interest in drafting the player.
Maybe this is true and can be taken at face value, but I almost wonder whether Seattle is at least partially supportive of this chatter in order to drive up Sennecke’s stock so that Sennecke ultimately leaps into the top-seven–which would all but guarantee one of the top defensemen falls to Seattle at No. 8.
4. With three defensemen in focus, thoughts on first round alternatives for Seattle
While I don’t believe in drafting for need, I think this happens to be a scenario where opportunity matches need at the top of the draft for Seattle. Assuming one or more is available, I’ll be very surprised if Seattle doesn’t select one of three defensemen at No. 8: Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh, or Sam Dickinson. As mentioned above, my board is: Buium, Parekh, Dickinson, in that order (though Parekh and Dickinson are fairly close). Buium is the best overall. Parekh is both a right defenseman and the biggest upside swing. Dickinson is perhaps the most likely to be the actual pick at No. 8 and a clean projection to Seattle based on Francis’ historical demonstrated preferences.
But what about a scenario where all three players are off the board because none of Sennecke, Iginla, Silayev, Catton, or Yakemchuk have jumped into the top seven? Cam Robinson of Elite Prospects floated a spicy scenario where Celebrini is immediately followed by a run of five defensemen. What then?
Konsta Helenius (Big Board: No. 11 | Data Score: No. 7) is a Finnish center with the potential to step into an NHL lineup as soon as next season. He may not have much more than middle-six center potential, but he could be a natural successor to Yanni Gourde with the Kraken and a vital complementary roster piece soon. There is a lot of appeal to this pick even if there isn’t flashy offensive upside.
Tij Iginla (Big Board: No. 9 | Data Score: No. 21) is well known in Seattle after playing two years with the Seattle Thunderbirds of the WHL. He plays an NHL-ready game on the wing, combining scoring touch with heavy forechecking ability and wall skills.
Berkly Catton (Big Board: No. 6 | Data Score: No. 10) is a deadly offensive package, combining skill, skating, and offensive instincts. If he stood 6-foot-2 instead of 5-foot-10.25 with the same skill level, he’d be considered as early as the second overall pick.
Finally, Corey Pronman of The Athletic has linked Seattle to Carter Yakemchuk, a 6-foot-3, right-shot defenseman from the Calgary Hitmen of the WHL at No. 8. Yakemchuk is an interesting player with an abundance of tools who scored 30 goals from the blue line in the WHL this season. I’d be happy to have him in the Kraken system, but there are a few too many question marks in his defensive game and how his offensive style will translate for my taste early in Round 1. If the Kraken were drafting at No. 20 again, it would be a different story.
5. Mocking the top seven 2024 picks
We all know that team dynamics affect draft selections, even if there is broad consensus about the quality of various prospects. This is why mock drafts differ from draft rankings.
I suspect there may be some chaos near the top of the draft this year relative to the Big Board order–and, for his part, Ron Francis seems to agree–so I figured I’d try my hand at a top seven mock draft.
Round 1. Pick 1. San Jose Sharks: Macklin Celebrini, C, Boston Univ. (NCAA) (Big Board rank: 1 | Data score rank: 1)
No need to overthink this one. Second straight consensus star forward at No. 1 overall.
Round 1. Pick 2. Chicago Blackhawks: Artyom Levshunov, RD, Michigan State Univ. (NCAA) (Big Board rank: 3 | Data score rank: 4)
The top defenseman on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board gives Chicago a projected No. 1 blueliner, filling a role others in the organization, including Kevin Korchinski, don’t project to fill.
A little bit off the board, but Anaheim doesn’t bow to convention and Silayev has many advocates, including the scouts at NHL Central Scouting, who ranked him above Ivan Demidov in their final rankings. A defensive defenseman to complement the team’s stable of offensive blue line prospects.
Round 1. Pick 4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Cayden Lindstrom, C, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL) (Big Board rank: 4 | Data score rank: 19)
Lindstrom is a risk given that a back injury knocked him out for most of his draft-eligible season. He seems to have been medically cleared, but it reduced an already small scouting sample size before a team is forced to invest a high draft pick. At his best, he’s a skilled, high-end skating center who happens to be built like a truck at 6-foot-3.
Round 1. Pick 5. Montreal Canadiens: Ivan Demidov, F, SKA St. Petersburg (MHL) (Big Board rank: 2 | Data score rank: 6)
All of Montreal lets out a sigh of relief when their Canadiens do not pass on an elite Russian talent for the second straight year.
Round 1. Pick 6. Utah Hockey Club: Sam Dickinson, LD, London Knights (OHL) (Big Board rank: 7 | Data score rank: 5)
For whatever reason, this is the pick I feel least confident about. It feels like it could be where Beckett Sennecke lands. As mentioned there has been a lot of smoke about Sennecke jumping into the top eight, and Bill Armstrong seems like the type of general manager who would take the shot on this late-rising, power winger. Even so, the team has a short- and long-term need on the blue line. Ignoring Zeev Buium at this point would be malpractice in my opinion. However, history tells us that if all things are equal, Armstrong prefers to draft size at the top of the draft, which could mean Sam Dickinson. I’ll put Dickinson here, even though part of my brain is screaming Buium.
Parekh is a native of the Ontario area and a unique offensive talent from the blue line. If Ottawa is comfortable that his floor outcome is still an NHL player, they may not be able to pass on his Erik Karlsson-like upside. If they think Parekh is too big a risk, Sennecke seems like he could be the pick.
***
If Buium is the pick at No. 6, there would be some disappointment at Seattle’s draft table with two dynamic offensive defensemen going off the board at picks six and seven. That said, I don’t think it would take too long for the team to settle on Dickinson in that scenario. If it breaks as I’ve laid it out above, though, I’d wager Seattle sprints to the stage to select left defenseman Zeev Buium.
6. My favorite draft sleepers
I’ve gone an inch deep and a mile wide watching hundreds of draft prospects in preparation for this draft. I’ve also crunched a few numbers and compiled dozens of analyst rankings and scouting reports. Based on all of these factors–which admittedly only take me so far–here are a few potential value choices. These are the prospects I believe have a chance to substantially outperform their Sound Of Hockey Big Board ranking. I added an asterisk to my very favorites.
*Liam Greentree | F | OHL | Windsor Spitfires | Big Board: 16 | Data Score: 11
Michael Hage | F | USHL | Chicago Steel | Big Board: 20 | Data Score: 9
Terik Parascak | F | WHL | Prince George Cougars | Big Board: 32 | Data Score: 14
*Marek Vanacker | F | OHL | Brantford Bulldogs | Big Board: 35 | Data Score: 22
Matvei Gridin | F | USHL | Muskegon Lumberjacks | Big Board: 37 | Data Score: 13
Henry Mews | D | OHL | Ottawa 67’s | Big Board: 42 | Data Score: 15
*John Mustard | F | USHL | Waterloo Black Hawks | Big Board: 50 | Data Score: 41
Luke Misa | F | OHL | Mississauga Steelheads | Big Board: 53 | Data Score: 27
Leon Muggli | D | NL | EV Zug | Big Board: 55 | Data Score: 25
*Spencer Gill | D | QMJHL | Rimouski Océanic | Big Board: 67 | Data Score: 48
Luca Marrelli | D | OHL | Oshawa Generals | Big Board: 71 | Data Score: 24
Jacob Battaglia | F | OHL | Kingston Frontenacs | Big Board: 73 | Data Score: 45
Jakub Fibigr | D | OHL | Mississauga Steelheads | Big Board: 98 | Data Score: 37
Timur Kol | D | VHL | Omskie Krylia | Big Board: 102 | Data Score: 40
Anthony Romani | F | OHL | North Bay Battalion | Big Board: 104 | Data Score: 18
Mac Swanson | F | USHL | Fargo Force | Big Board: 107 | Data Score: 23
Ondrej Becher | F | WHL | Prince George Cougars | Big Board: 117 | Data Score: 65
*Riley Patterson | F | OHL | Barrie Colts | Big Board: 118 | Data Score: 57
*Ilya Protas | F | USHL | Des Moines Buccaneers | Big Board: 124 | Data Score: 54
Jiri Tichacek | D | Czechia | Rytíři Kladno | Big Board: 159 | Data Score: 17
*James Reeder | F | USHL | Dubuque Fighting Saints | Big Board: 165 | Data Score: 47
*Austin Burnevik | F | USHL | Madison Capitols | Big Board: 170 | Data Score: 59
*Kenta Isogai | F | WHL | Wenatchee Wild | Big Board: 189 | Data Score: 83
Kaden Pitre | F | OHL | Flint Firebirds | Big Board: 231 | Data Score: 91
*Ben Robertson | D | NCAA | Cornell Univ. | Big Board: 239 | Data Score: 76
Dylan Hryckowian | F | NCAA | Northeastern Univ. | Big Board: 284 | Data Score: 85
*Tommaso De Luca | F | NL | HC Ambrì-Piotta | Big Board: 324 | Data Score: 39
*Beau Jelsma | F | OHL | Barrie Colts | Big Board: 452 | Data Score: 122
*Hugo Fransson | D | SHL | HV71 | Big Board: 474 | Data Score: 77
*Jere Lassila | F | Liiga | JYP | Big Board: 481 | Data Score: 100
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
It’s no secret that the Seattle Kraken need to score more goals next season. Goal-scoring issues plagued the team from the start of last season, with only three goals in their first four games to start. The Kraken finished the 2023-24 regular season 28th in the league with an average of 2.61 goals per game, down 25 percent from the 2022-23 season. Clearly, targeting goal scorers in the offseason is crucial. One way they can do that is in free agency that opens July 1. To help us all prepare, I put together a list of potential targets for the Kraken in free agency.
Assumptions
Roster spots: Assuming no trades happen before free agency, the Kraken will have four or five forward spots to fill from last season. Shane Wright is likely to take one of these spots, and two more spots will be depth pieces that are not expected to produce a lot of goals but can fill in down the lineup and help in case of injuries. For the purposes of this exercise, we will focus on the two remaining roster spots that will be expected to contribute offensively.
Budget: I estimate the Kraken will have less than $10 million in AAV to sign these two players. This may be a conservative estimate, but without knowing the pending RFA contracts of Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen, we’ll use this constraint. Additionally, targeting a center would allow Jared McCann to move back to wing.
Contract estimates: I will mostly use contract estimates from AFPAnalytics NHL projections for 2024-25, published in May. This ensures reasonable contract projections. While I typically reference Evolving Hockey contract projections, sharing their work does not feel right since their work is behind a subscription paywall (I will use one of their contract projections for this exercise).
Target free agents
Viktor Arvidsson – RW – $4.7M AAV Arvidsson, 31, had an injury-plagued season last year, playing just 18 games for the Los Angeles Kings. He’s a proven shooter, and if healthy, can score 20-plus goals. His age and recent injuries might provide a discount for the signing team.
Anthony Duclair – LW/RW – $4.3M AAV Duclair, 29 this summer, is a speedy goal scorer who missed most of the 2022-23 season due to an Achilles injury. He returned in 2023-24 and managed 24 goals across two teams, and despite some defensive flaws, his goal-scoring ability is worth considering.
Jake DeBrusk – LW – $5.8M AAV DeBrusk has been a potential Kraken target since February. Reliable for close to 20 goals a season, his $5.8M AAV might seem high compared to Arvidsson or Duclair, but his health and consistency make him a safer bet.
Chandler Stephenson – C – $5.6M AAV Stephenson could replace Alexander Wennberg but with more goal scoring. A second- or third-line center who can play on special teams, Stephenson has scored 15-plus goals in each of the last four seasons. Although pricey at $5.6M AAV, his experience and two Stanley Cups add value.
Great right pad save by Hill on Burakovsky at one end.
Chandler Stephenson scores on Vegas's first shot of the game at the other end.
Sean Monahan – C – $2.9M AAV Monahan is a cost-effective option that allows for spending elsewhere. As a solid third-line center with some defensive weaknesses, he logged 26 goals last season. Despite a history of injuries, he played 83 games in 2023-24. His face-off skills are notable, though we all know face-offs don’t matter. Evolving-Hockey has Monahan north of $5 million AAV so this might not be as affordable as we thought.
The reality of landing a target
There’s a common misconception that teams can acquire specific players in free agency by simply outbidding others. In reality, most free agents have a shortlist of preferred teams, and agents gauge interest from those teams. This means teams have less than a 15 percent chance of even engaging in discussions with their desired players. Even with a match in interests from both parties, competition remains fierce.
Addressing the Kraken’s goal-scoring issues in free agency requires realistic expectations and working within the constraints of the situation. It is conceivable that most of the goal scoring forwards might not want to play in Seattle given a perceived unlikelihood the Kraken could contend for a Stanley Cup in the next several years.
What are your thoughts? Who do you think the Kraken should target in free agency?
Everything is happening this week. The Florida Panthers held on by the tips of their claws to claim the Stanley Cup. The Coachella Valley Firebirds got mired in Hershey mud tantalizingly close to an AHL Championship for the second straight postseason.
Off the ice, former Firebirds coach Dan Bylsma must immediately turn his attention to building out his Kraken coaching staff. Meanwhile, the Kraken professional scouts and front office are focused on acquiring some scoring to boost Seattle’s floundering offense as the calendar year turns on July 1.
Today, we adjust our focus squarely onto the Kraken and preview the 2024 NHL Draft from the team perspective, reviewing the front office’s historical approach, where the team stands, what opportunities it has, and where it may go when the 2024 NHL Draft kicks off on Friday at 4:00 p.m. PT. With a hat tip to John Barr for data visualizations and the Seattle Kraken PR Department for additional historical draft information, let’s dive in.
Drafter Ron, a history
This is the fourth NHL Draft in Seattle Kraken history, all led by general manager Ron Francis and the current front office. Overall, this draft will be the eighth helmed by Francis, after he managed four drafts as the GM in Carolina.
Ron Francis
Francis made 33 total draft picks in Carolina from 2014 to 2017, with 14 of those drafted players surpassing 100 NHL games played. 12 of those draft picks logged at least one NHL game played during the 2023-24 season.
The Hurricanes utilized their top draft pick in each of Francis’ first three drafts on rangy (6-foot-1 or taller), two-way blue line prospects: Haydn Fleury (No. 7 overall in 2014), Noah Hanifin (No. 5 overall in 2015), and Jake Bean (No. 13 overall in 2016). After that, Francis’ Hurricanes took two forwards with mid-to-late first-round picks: Julien Gauthier (No. 21 overall in 2016) and Martin Necas (No. 12 overall in 2017). Two of those first-rounders qualify as success stories in Hanifin and Necas, with Bean an additional solid defenseman. Fleury and Gauthier remain in the league as depth options.
2015 was a banner year for Francis as a drafter. As mentioned, the Hurricanes drafted Hanifin at No. 5 overall that year–the highest Francis has selected a defenseman–and followed that up by selecting Sebastian Aho at No. 35 near the top of the second round. Hanifin has played in 678 NHL games, the most of any Francis pick. Aho has scored 557 points, the most of any player drafted by a Francis team. Hanifin and Aho join Seattle’s Matty Beniers as Francis’ three draft picks to have been named to a NHL All-Star Team.
Francis’ Carolina teams found above-average success uncovering NHL players in the second and third rounds. Aho is joined by Warren Foegle (67 overall in 2014), Eetu Luostarinen (42 overall in 2017), and Morgan Geekie (67 overall in 2017) as regular NHL contributors with 200-plus NHL games played, having been drafted in the second or third rounds of Francis’ four Carolina drafts. Francis’ four-for-nine, 44 percent hit rate in generating players logging 200-plus games played in this range dwarfs the league average of approximately 20 percent from this time period.
The early returns from Francis’ Seattle drafts suggest that Francis and his staff may have continued that run of success drafting between the 30’s and 90’s. In my data-only ranking of 2023-24 NHL-affiliated prospects, I had six of Seattle’s second- and third-round picks within the top 125 of prospects in the NHL: Jani Nyman (49 overall in 2022), Carson Rehkopf (50 overall in 2023), David Goyette (61 overall in 2022), Jagger Firkus (35 overall in 2022), Ryan Winterton (67 overall in 2022), and Ryker Evans (35 overall in 2021).
And credit the Seattle Kraken PR Department for this tidbit: Winterton is one of only two third-round draft picks selected in the last three years to play in a regular-season NHL game so far. Indeed, his nine games played is most by a player drafted in the third round over the last three years, ahead of Columbus Blue Jacket Stanislav Svozil who registered two NHL games in 2022-23.
With the arguable exception of Evans, none of Seattle’s second- and third-round picks have yet established themselves as NHL regulars, so the jury is still out. But I’d wager the run of above-average success will continue.
Unlike in Carolina, though, Francis’ Seattle drafts have clearly tilted toward offense early. Each of Seattle’s first-round picks have been forwards: Matty Beniers (2 overall in 2021), Shane Wright (4 overall in 2022), and Eduard Sale (20 overall in 2023). Drawing back further, Seattle has drafted eight forwards against only two defensemen, and one goaltender in the first two rounds in Francis’ three drafts.
(Author’s note: The charts above cover drafted skaters only.)
Finally, while Francis and his staff have been active in making trades at the trade deadline during his Carolina and Seattle tenures–adding 14 draft picks in eight different trades–the same cannot be said for his teams’ draft day approach.
Francis’ teams tend to stick-and-pick, having completed only one trade during his seven drafts–a 2022 deal that saw the Kraken send fourth- and fifth-round picks to the Boston Bruins for a third-round pick the team used to select Ben MacDonald. (The Kraken continue to hold MacDonald’s rights as he plays at Harvard University, but the forward has not signed a contract with the team.)
Furthermore, Francis’ teams have never traded a current year’s draft pick for a player in the run up to a draft. (The Oliver Bjorkstrand trade happened after the 2022 draft, using 2023 draft picks.) Context is important here, though. Francis’ teams in Carolina and Seattle have been in the building phase during his tenures. That is a fact worth knowing given the sense among fans that there is urgency for the Kraken to add to the NHL roster now using draft or prospect assets. This would be a departure for Francis.
The Kraken system, deep with NHL-caliber forward talent, lacks the same depth on the blue line
Public analyst opinions on the Kraken prospect pool vary, ranging from approximately average to elite. My data-only evaluation is fond of Seattle’s prospect pool, placing it among the best in the league.
All agree that the Kraken are remarkably deep in the forward ranks, particularly for an organization that has only existed for three years. Rankings that have the Kraken lower tend to emphasize the lack of depth on the blue line and in goal, as well as the absence of players that project as high-end scorers at the NHL level.
While the latter point is not entirely unfounded, I think it undersells Shane Wright’s 2023-24 season, which was quietly excellent (and continued on a historic pace in the AHL postseason). Even beyond Wright, Jani Nyman, David Goyette, Jagger Firkus, and Carson Rehkopf all turned in high-scoring seasons that ought not be discounted entirely merely due to scouting and projection questions.
I also think public analysts may be sleeping on the potential of goalie Niklas Kokko, whose combined regular season and postseason save percentage (.921) was second in Liiga, behind only 36-year-old goaltender Niko Hovinen. Indeed, his strong postseason play led Pelicans to the Liiga Finals. He may be hurt by the fact that his worst few weeks of the season fell during the World Junior Championships, when the most eyes were on him. I tend to subscribe to the view with goalies that you believe it when you see it at the NHL level, but Kokko is checking every box so far. He’ll likely be part of a goalie tandem in Coachella Valley in 2024-25.
As far as blue line depth goes, I think the critique is fair, though Seattle’s short history is important context. Drafted players typically follow a two-to-five-year timeline to the NHL, and the Kraken are still toddler-aged as a franchise.
It appears likely the team’s highest-drafted blueliner, left defenseman Ryker Evans (35 overall in 2021), will surpass our 200 games played threshold. Beyond Evans, though, questions emerge.
Ryker Evans
Righty Ty Nelson (No. 68 overall in 2022) has produced at the junior level but plateaued slightly and faces developmental questions surrounding his height. Righty Lukas Dragicevic (57 overall in 2023) has one standout junior season under his belt, scoring 75 points in 2022-23, but his offensive production regressed in 2023-24, and his defensive game remains suspect. Left defenseman Tyson Jugnauth (100 overall in 2022) has been on a slower development path, but he provided high-end production after joining the Portland Winterhawks in December, 2023. Finally, right-shot Ville Ottavainen (99 overall in 2021) impressed with his height-speed-skill package in Coachella Valley this past season but will search for a bit more consistency in the coming years.
All told, there are more questions than answers on defense. A couple defensemen–perhaps Evans and Ottavainen–could emerge as bottom-half NHL contributors, but the odds of a top-of-the-lineup player emerging seem slim. Dragicevic may have that potential, but he has a long, long way to go.
Teams are allocated seven draft picks for each entry draft. But for the third straight year, the Kraken will exceed that standard allocation by virtue of accumulating draft picks in trades. Here is a snapshot of Seattle’s draft capital entering Friday night:
The No. 8 overall pick is the third-highest assigned pick in Kraken history. Seattle traded its own fifth-round draft choice (No. 137 overall) to Colorado on Dec. 15, 2023, for Tomas Tatar.
The strength of the 2024 NHL Draft is in a handful of high-end blue line prospects
As detailed in our Sound Of Hockey Big Board post, our data-only analysis sees four standout defense prospects after consensus top-choice Macklin Celebrini: Zeev Buium (No. 2), Zayne Parekh (No. 3), Artyom Levshunov (No. 4), and Sam Dickinson (No. 5). The scouts largely agreed, ranking all four within the top-eight: Buium (No. 4 on the Big Board), Parekh (No. 8), Levshunov (No. 3), and Dickinson (No. 7).
For my money, I see a group of seven players at the top of the draft: the four defensemen mentioned above, and forwards Celebrini, Cayden Lindstrom, and Ivan Demidov. After that I see a second tier that drops off in talent in the teens, and a third tier that tails off around No. 40. From the Kraken perspective, the hope would be to secure a player in the top group and then another in the third tier with the team’s first two picks.
Projecting Seattle’s approach in the 2024 NHL Draft
Based on the confluence of organizational need and players likely to be available, I’d lean toward Seattle selecting its first-ever first-round defenseman on Friday.
In particular, Buium and Dickinson stand out to me as players that meet the high-end, two-way profile Francis sought at the top of the draft in Carolina. Dickinson has even been compared to Noah Hanifin by several analysts, including by friend of the SOH Pod, Chris Peters, and is probably the “best” fit for the “Francis profile,” given his 6-foot-3 frame.
Buium is just a bit shorter than Francis’ previous picks at 6-foot-0, but his frame isn’t so far off from Vince Dunn, whom Francis signed to the largest contract, on annual average value basis, ever awarded by a Francis team.
Levshunov is an intriguing fit who checks all of the boxes like Dickinson, but he’s almost certain to be off the board as early as the second overall pick.
Parekh is a bit less conventional and may not fit the two-way profile Francis has drafted early in the past. But that is not to say Parekh wouldn’t be the pick if he were available at No. 8. He has been compared by some to Erik Karlsson, and I’ll simply tease that we have some content coming on Parekh tomorrow.
In the past I have voiced caution against overdrafting defensemen in the first round. Macro analyses of draft success rates suggest that forwards drafted high tend to hit at a higher rate than their counterparts on defense. It strikes me that most of this differential is likely attributable to overvaluing the defensive defenseman profile. Such prospects often fail because they can never add competent offensive capacity to their game. I’m not as concerned about the four blueliners listed above in this regard because each potentially profiles as a play-driving offensive defenseman.
What else can we predict? We should see the team select a goaltender at some point in the draft. In each of Francis’ drafts, his team has tabbed a goalie somewhere in the second-to-sixth rounds: Visa Vedenpää (168 overall in 2023), Niklas Kokko (58 overall in 2022), Semyon Vyazovoi (163 overall in 2021), Eetu Mäkiniemi (104 overall in 2017), Jack Lafontaine (75 overall in 2016), Callum Booth (93 overall in 2015), and Alex Nedeljkovic (37 overall in 2014). I’d expect that trend to continue since the team has only signed Kokko to a contract to date. (The team also signed undrafted goalie Victor Ostman this spring.)
Could we see a trade? As we recounted above, history suggests that it is unlikely. But a few contextual factors lead me to believe that a trade is still possible.
I don’t view the 2024 NHL Draft as particularly deep through the second and third rounds where the Kraken have four picks. If Seattle sees one of its last highly ranked players slipping towards the end of the first round or in the middle of the second round between its picks, could the Kraken package multiple selections to move up? It’s not inconceivable.
For the same reason, if there is an appealing veteran on offer for a second- or third-round pick that could deliver on the team’s urgent NHL need for scoring, the Kraken would at least need to consider it.
Finally, the team has now built out a solid prospect pipeline, which it could not legitimately say as recently as one year ago. This could alter the team’s calculus on the volume of draft selections it needs to make.
Parting thoughts
We have one more pre-draft post coming on Friday morning. Do you have any last minute draft thoughts, predictions, or questions? Let us know in the comments below or on X @sound_hockey or @deepseahockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Sound Of Hockey Draft Week continues with a newly minted resource for draft savants and newcomers, alike. We have added links to shift-by-shift gameplay videos for almost 200 prospects eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft to the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Direct link to the Board HERE. There is also summary chart with links to the videos further down in this post, and you can find them in a playlist on the Deep Sea Hockey YouTube Channel.
Our hope is that you find this a useful resource in preparing for and reviewing your favorite team’s draft picks. Bookmark it; share it. (Sound Of Hockey patrons, keep reading for an additional resource.)
Bringing access to draft prospects
When I think of successful public draft analysis, my mind often starts with Mel Kiper’s pioneering work delivering an outsider’s critical analysis on the NFL Draft. It began with general managers asking “Who the hell is Mel Kiper?” But fast forward to today, and there has been an explosion of public sphere football draft coverage. It has found a growing audience of educated and invested fans there to consume it. I know I enjoy NFL Draft coverage every year.
I think about all of this in the context of preparing for the 2024 NHL Draft. I’d love to see the same market growth on the NHL side. That said, the NFL has at least three ingredients to its success–and decided avantages over the NHL–in delivering draft coverage.
First, and most important, is the popularity of the NFL. There is not a lot anyone in our position can do individually to change that situation. But I’d say campaigning and organizing for a 32nd hockey franchise, running a weekly Podcast, and providing in-depth coverage of a team and league–all as a passion-project gig–is Sound Of Hockey “doing our part” on that score. So, we’re trying.
Second, the NFL Draft delivers a type of instant gratification that is rarely seen on the NHL side. Do the Seattle Seahawks need an offensive lineman? Go draft one in the first round, and that player will be expected to start 17 NFL games in year one. In contrast, only a small handful of players make their NHL debut in their draft season. This year, perhaps only Macklin Celebrini can be considered “likely” to suit up in NHL gear in the fall.
Again, there is not really much we at Sound Of Hockey can do about that, except to spread the good word that following drafted prospects in leagues around the world is its own joy. There are few things I have enjoyed more than tuning into the dulcet tones of Firebirds broadcaster Evan Pivnick to check in on the development of prospects like Logan Morrison or Ryan Winterton. I know John Barr is probably HV71’s No.1 fan in the United States from following Oscar Fisker Mølgaard’s post-draft season in the SHL. On the Sound Of Hockey Patreon and the Deep Sea Hockey YouTube Channel, I try to keep Kraken fans up to date with prospect videos when I can.
Third, fans are relatively more familiar with the players entering the NFL at the draft. The NFL’s development league–college football–is itself incredibly popular. Fans have existing knowledge of and relationships with the players. This means they can bring their own thoughts, hopes, and fears to the draft–above and beyond what they can find printed in a draft preview.
The NHL fan is hampered by the fact that there is no single development league to follow. NHL prospects come from anywhere and everywhere around the hockey-playing world. This is part of the beauty of it, but it hurts draft engagement.
This is where my prospect video project comes in. I wanted to get NHL fans more access to these players during the draft season. My hope is that greater access is a missing ingredient–a small entryway for fans into the NHL draft or hockey more generally.
For example, the Sound Of Hockey Big Board has Swedish forward Linus Erickson ranked No. 40 overall, which happens to be the position of the first second-round draft choice held by the Seattle Kraken. Erickson is an 18-year-old forward who played in HockeyAllsvenskan, the second tier Swedish professional hockey league, for Djurgårdens IF. Supposing Erickson were Seattle’s choice, what are the odds that the choice would generate anything other than a shrug from the vast majority of hockey fans in the Pacific Northwest?
One could (and should) read the scouting work done on Erickson from outlets like EliteProspects and the reporting done by great public sphere analysts like Chris Peters of FloHockey. Peters calls Erickson “[a] sturdy forward with some good compete in his game” and projects a bottom-six role. How does that look on tape?
There may be highlights available somewhere, but highlights don’t tell the whole story. It’s valuable to know what a player can do operating at his peak, but what does his ordinary gameplay really look like? As a draft consumer myself, I wanted to know.
All Shifts videos
As part of my more general project tracking hockey prospect data and public analyst rankingsthroughout the 2023-24 season, I had access to a shortlist of likely top prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft. I decided to watch and create video on as many of the top-150-ranked prospects as I could–as well as others that turned up favorably in my data-only draft rankings.
For each player, I excerpted all of their shifts from a game, typically returning up to 20 minutes of gameplay.
That said, one intended benefit of this project was to have all of the videos in one organized and easily-accessible resource. That is why we have included the video links in a table below. I have also added a video link for each prospect observed on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board–178 videos in total as of June 26, 2024.
Community members who have joined us on the Sound Of Hockey Patreon get an added benefit. For a number of top prospects, I made more than one All Shifts video. For example, I made five videos for Cole Eiserman alone. As a thank you to these community members, we are making the full video list available on a spreadsheet posted on the Sound Of Hockey Patreon.
Not a patron and want access to additional videos for top prospects? Sign up today at patreon.com/soundofhockey. Your support helps defray some of the costs of running the SOH Podcast, soundofhockey.com, and providing hockey coverage.
A few closing thoughts and caveats
Of course, video from one game–or even a few games–is not enough to reach a fully-informed scouting view on a player. That is not our goal here. Our goal is to democratize access to hockey prospects just a bit, and to provide a new centralized video resource that we had always wished existed but–to our knowledge–did not. We want to spark conversation and more inquiry.
For a couple different reasons, I opted against creating videos for players in Russian leagues this year. That said, when I was able to find comparable videos from other public sources for top Russian players, I have included those links.
Now turning to even the very fine print, we should note that Sound Of Hockey does not own the underlying broadcast rights for any of the broadcasts from which these videos were created. We believe that these videos fall with the commentary and criticism fair use exception because they are for scouting individual players.
I expect to add at least a few more videos before and shortly after the draft. Here, again, is the link to the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board. If there are any in particular you would like to see, let us know. More generally, if you have any questions about the videos, players, or big-picture NHL Draft issues, let’s talk. Drop us a line in the comments below or on X @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Welcome to NHL Draft Week here at Sound Of Hockey. And we’re kicking things off with year three of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board, ranking prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft, set to kick off on Friday. We also made a mid-season version earlier this year that you can check out here.
What is the Sound Of Hockey Big Board? It’s a ranking built on a compilation of reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists. This year, we gathered ranking data from 20 sources. (See the complete list below.)
We consolidated the various ranks into a single composite ranking by a weighted geometric mean calculation. Why do we use geomean? If you’re curious you can find an applicable explanation from a different context here. Weights were assigned based on our assessment of the depth of experience, sourced reporting, or scouting insight factored into the component lists themselves. For example, Bob McKenzie’s list for TSN, which is built based on conversations with scouts, is weighted the most. The voluminous work done by independent scouts at Elite Prospectsis next in line, and so forth.
The Sound Of Hockey Big Board also provides information on each player’s measurements, statistics, and playing experience for the 2023-24 season, mostly drawn from Elite Prospects, NHL Central Scouting, and the NHL Draft Combine.
All told, the Sound Of Hockey Big Board covers approximately 9,000 draft-eligible prospects. (That is not a typo. Last year the Big Board covered almost 7,000 prospects. This year there’s even more.)
Based on what we have seen, we continue to believe the Sound Of Hockey Big Board is the most comprehensive source anywhere in compiling draft-prospect-related information in one place. To this point, the Big Board will be getting an additional injection of player information starting Wednesday. Call that a tease.
Scouting lists supplemented by data work
If you’ve been following along, you’ll know we’ve also published our data-only 2024 NHL Draft prospect rankings throughout the 2023-24 season: final version, midseason version, and preseason version.
Those data-only rankings are built on the foundation of an NHL equivalency or “NHLe.” What is NHLe? NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2023-24 season data.
From there, I made a number of adjustments based on factors known to impact the probability of prospect success, including age, height, re-draft status, position, percentage of total team offense produced, and relative on-ice plus-minus. Read up on the methodology here and here.
I bring this up because I included my final NHLe data score as a source on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board at a minuscule weight in order to give the board some “order” for the prospects that went unranked by all 20 sources. I explained why I did this in an earlier post.
The Sound Of Hockey Big Board
So, without further ado, you can find the Sound Of Hockey Big Board in Google Sheets HERE.
Important note on using the Sound Of Hockey Big Board: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 3, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Here is a snapshot of top 65 prospects in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, sorted by the overall composite rank:
Compiled rankings
Here are the scouting sources we used (so far) in building the Sound Of Hockey Big Board:
First, when you click through to the full composite draft board, you will see that many of the individual rankings are grayed out beyond the top 32. This is because those rankings are behind a paywall. To get to Corey Pronman’s full ranking of prospects, for example, a subscription to The Athletic is required. While we utilized all of the individual rankings listed above to develop our composite list, we will not be sharing subscriber-only individual rankings in the public version of the composite big board.
Second, the Big Board does not reflect our view on these prospects. We at Sound Of Hockey have read reports, watched some videos, and crunched a few numbers. I’ll be putting up more thoughts of my own before the draft, but that is not what this exercise is about. The Sound Of Hockey Big Board is simply a tabulation of the rankings of others. A player’s ranking has nothing to do with whether any of us here at Sound Of Hockey “like” the player or not.
Third, and finally, it bears emphasis that a “composite” ranking is not the be-all and end-all. In many ways, finding the “best” public list and trusting it is preferable. A consensus board cannot explain why one prospect is ranked higher than another, and it certainly cannot displace the work of scouts or draft reporters.
But a composite ranking can provide some added information. Think of it as the cherry on top of the sundae, not the sundae itself.
How so? In the first year of this Big Board I used the case of Brad Lambert as an example. This year Trevor Connelly could be an instructive case. Both players are talented but viewed as risky for different reasons, and had widely varying rankings on individual public boards. How do we synthesize that information? A composite approach can exploit the wisdom of the crowd. Connelly’s final ranking may blend the upside and risk, placing him in a “fair” or “expected” position.
Three Big Board takeaways
We will return before the draft with more thoughts on certain prospects and which ones might be the best fit for the Seattle Kraken specifically, but in the meantime, here are three topline takeaways.
No debate at No. 1. For the second straight year, we have a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. Macklin Celebrini ranked No. 1 on every list included in our sample. (Note that NHL Central Scouting’s ranking is split into four lists, so Central Scouting actually has four players ranked “No. 1.” But I have little doubt NHL Central Scouting believes Celebrini is the best prospect in this draft.) While Celebrini may not bring the electric skill of a Connor Bedard, he plays at a high level in all facets of the game. In particular, his hockey sense, vision, and passing ability have drawn Sidney Crosby-lite comparisons. He will almost certainly be the pick at No. 1 overall by the San Jose Sharks and a challenge in the Pacific Division for years to come.
Consensus on valuable defensemen. In our data-only ranking, we had four consecutive defensemen rounding out a standout top five after Celebrini: Zeev Buium (No. 2), Zayne Parekh (No. 3), Artyom Levshunov (No. 4), and Sam Dickinson (No. 5). The scouts largely agreed, ranking all four within the top-eight: Buium (No. 4 on the Big Board), Parekh (No. 8), Levshunov (No. 3), and Dickinson (No. 7). It just so happens the Kraken have the No. 8 pick and a need for additional depth on the blue line.
A big year for Norwegian hockey. A Norwegian has never been drafted in the first round of the NHL Draft. This year, the Sound Of Hockey Big Board foresees two Norwegians as first-round picks: forward Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (ranked No. 15) and defenseman Stian Solberg (No. 21). To make matters even sweeter for Norway, both may go before Sweden’s highest-ranked player, Alfons Freij (No. 26). And two first-round picks could match or surpass Finland too, with only Konsta Helenius (No. 11) and Emil Hemming (No. 29) seen as Finnish first-round picks.
Local connections in the draft
While the Seattle Thunderbirds aren’t the same draft powerhouse they were in 2023, there are still a number of Pacific Northwest connections in the 2024 NHL Draft. Here are a few of the players with local tie-ins on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board:
Berly Catton, F, Spokane Chiefs, WHL: ranked No. 6 on the Big Board
Tij Iginla, F, Kelowna Rockets, WHL (played with the Thunderbirds from 2021-23): No. 9
Julius Miettinen, F, Everett Silvertips, WHL: No. 41
Kaden Shahan, F, Sioux City Musketeers, USHL (born in Everett): No. 206
Eric Jamieson, D, Everett Silvertips, WHL (2023 Kraken development camp invite): No. 214
Final thoughts
The 2024 NHL Draft kicks off with Round 1 on Friday, June 28, at 4:00 p.m. PT. Rounds 2 through 7 start on Saturday at 8:30 am PT.
In the meantime, here again is a link to the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Bookmark it, share it, and consult it between now and the draft. Keep it close during the draft itself because in the past, the data has been a pretty strong indicator of what the Kraken (and other teams) will do. In the meantime, similar to last year, we’ll return before the draft with some opinions on Sound Of Hockey Big Board targets and with a Seattle Kraken mock draft.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
With a thrilling Stanley Cup Final Game 7 concluded, the Florida Panthers crowned NHL champions, and the Coachella Valley Firebirds finishing two wins short of a Calder Cup, the hockey world will now swiftly pivot from playoff mode to offseason wheeling and dealing. Some moves have already begun, with players like Pierre-Luc Dubois, Darcy Kuemper, Jacob Markstrom, and Linus Ullmark traded by their former clubs, but activity is set to escalate quickly.
Believe it or not, the 2024 NHL Draft is just three days away, with the first round on Friday and rounds two through seven on Saturday. Kraken Development Camp and the opening of unrestricted free agency also loom on July 1.
It’s no secret that Seattle aims to upgrade this summer and return to playoff contention for 2024-25. The Kraken’s most significant offseason moves are likely to occur over the next week or two, amid these tentpole events.
While we will cover the draft extensively in the coming days, discussing projections and Seattle’s plans to bolster its prospect pipeline, my current focus is on how the Kraken will enhance their team for next season. In the “Offseason To-Do List” article I wrote a few weeks ago, I proposed a hypothetical depth chart. I’m going to use that depth chart, fill in open spots with players I think the Kraken could target, and then compare how much of an impact those individuals could have for 2024-25.
Depth chart
My prediction remains that General Manager Ron Francis will seek to improve the team’s offense by acquiring two 20-plus goal scorers this offseason, either through trades or free agency. Assuming unrestricted free agents Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Kailer Yamamoto, and Tomas Tatar do not return next season (though I would be in favor of Tatar returning, he saw reduced ice time under former coach Dave Hakstol and even landed in healthy scratch territory toward the end of the season), there are two spots in the lineup open for offensive upgrades.
Here’s a hypothetical forward lineup with placeholders for the aforementioned added 20-goal scorers:
Jared McCann // Matty Beniers // NEW 20-GOAL WINGER Jordan Eberle // NEW 20-GOAL CENTER // Andre Burakovsky Eeli Tolvanen // Shane Wright // Oliver Bjorkstrand Tye Kartye // Yanni Gourde // Jaden Schwartz Brandon Tanev
Recent rumors suggested Brandon Tanev and his one remaining year at a $3.5 million cap hit might be traded. If the team does add two players toward the top of the lineup, then having that big of a contract potentially filling the 13th forward role does not make sense. Meanwhile, Ryan Winterton’s standout performance in the Calder Cup Finals may have made Tanev even more expendable. This doesn’t mean I’m cementing Winterton into the Kraken lineup for next season, but younger, cheaper players than Tanev could fill the 12th or 13th forward roles.
On defense, we at Sound Of Hockey anticipate minimal changes, except for Justin Schultz likely departing via free agency after two seasons in the Pacific Northwest. Ryker Evans is expected to move onto the third pair full-time, though there’s potential for the team to add a depth defenseman to backfill for Schultz.
Vince Dunn // Adam Larsson Jamie Oleksiak // Will Borgen Brian Dumoulin // Ryker Evans NEW SEVENTH DEFENSEMAN
With Seattle’s fourth line in 2023-24 proving mostly docile, and several players higher in the lineup experiencing reduced output, the Kraken scored a total of 214 goals, good for 29th in the league.
Filling open spots
Francis and company have various options to enhance the forward corps. Our own John Barr highlighted potential trade candidates such as Trevor Zegras, Martin Necas, Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Tanner Jeannot in Monday Musings. My personal favorites from this list are Necas and Ehlers. John suggested Necas, a restricted free agent, might command north of $8 million AAV in his next contract, which could be more than Seattle is willing to pay. But at 25 years old, Necas is hitting his prime and could justify that kind of investment.
On the other hand, acquiring Ehlers, a 28-year-old winger who has been plagued by injuries at times, could lead to another type of financial risk. While speculative and potentially farfetched, I’ll pencil in Necas for the Kraken next season with an estimated $8 million salary.
If the Kraken acquire one scoring forward via trade, I anticipate the second coming through free agency, akin to what Francis swung two summers ago when he signed Andre Burakovsky and traded for Oliver Bjorkstrand.
This brings us to available UFAs, where players like Teuvo Teravainen, Jake DeBrusk, Sean Monahan, Anthony Duclair, and Warren Foegele could all make varying levels of sense for Seattle. Here, I’ll select DeBrusk, estimating a $5.5 million contract, a reasonable $1.5 million increase from his previous cap hit of $4 million.
Regardless of the forwards acquired, if the Kraken unload Tanev’s contract, re-sign Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen (both RFA’s due for significant raises), and add approximately $14 million in total between the two forward additions, then Seattle should remain right around next season’s $88 million salary cap.
Impact of acquisitions
Adding two effective forwards isn’t just about the 40 or so goals they might contribute. It’s also about the ripple effect on the lineup when you strengthen the top end of your roster.
Let’s incorporate these forwards into the depth chart and consider the expected goal output for the Kraken in 2024-25, factoring in goal totals from the 2023-24 season and conservative estimates for rookies like Shane Wright, Winterton, and Evans.
Jared McCann (29) // Matty Beniers (15) // Jake DeBrusk (19) Jordan Eberle (17) // Martin Necas (24) // Andre Burakovsky (7) Eeli Tolvanen (16) // Shane Wright (12*) // Oliver Bjorkstrand (20) Tye Kartye (11) // Yanni Gourde (11) // Jaden Schwartz (13) Ryan Winterton (2*)
Vince Dunn (11) // Adam Larsson (4) Jamie Oleksiak (2) // Will Borgen (3) Brian Dumoulin (6) // Ryker Evans (5*)
(* = Rookie projection)
If the Kraken maintain the same mostly paltry production from returning players, add two forwards with 24 and 19 goals respectively, and get 22 goals from the three rookies I think could make the full-time NHL roster, that would bring Seattle’s goal total to 227. That would have only bumped the Kraken up one spot to 28th in the NHL in 2023-24.
However, this projection dramatically oversimplifies goal-scoring dynamics. Strengthening the top lines should also facilitate better matchups for other scorers throughout the lineup. This depth could potentially revive the offensive balance we saw in Seattle two seasons ago, not just by adding 13 goals over 82 games, but by encouraging offensive improvement from the whole team.
What are your thoughts? Could this offseason plan get the Kraken back into playoff contention?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
This is going to be a wild week in the hockey world, kicking off Monday with a rare Stanley Cup Final Game 7. This will only be the second Game 7 in a Final in the last 10 years. There are numerous storylines: Connor McDavid could cement his legacy as one of the all-time greats by potentially bringing the Cup back to Edmonton and to Canada, while the Florida Panthers are aiming for their first championship in franchise history. It’s going to be a remarkable story, regardless of the outcome.
In addition to the Stanley Cup Final, there will be at least one more Calder Cup game, the NHL Awards show, the NHL Entry Draft, and if all that wasn’t enough, free agency will begin next Monday, July 1. Here are some thoughts on the coming week.
Will there be any more trades?
There’s a lot of buzz right now about trades leading up to the NHL Draft, but we hear this every year. So it’s hard to tell if this is just hype or if this year will be different. There was a flurry of trades last week, highlighted by the Kings and Capitals making a one-for-one swap of Pierre-Luc Dubois for Darcy Kuemper and the Flames sending Jacob Markstrom to the Devils for Kevin Bahl and a 2025 first-round pick. Is that the end of the pre-draft fireworks, or are there more coming?
Every time names get floated as potential trade candidates, I get about 10 text messages either asking for my opinion or individuals sharing their opinions with me on whether the Seattle Kraken should make a play for them. The hottest names in the trade rumor mill are Trevor Zegras, Martin Necas, and Patrik Laine.
All three come with some inherent risk. Necas, a pending restricted free agent, would be the best fit in Seattle, but what would it cost to get him, and how will his next contract look? Evolving-Hockey estimates Necas’ contract at close to $9 million per year. The Kraken have cap space, but such a contract would consume a lot of it, leaving several holes to fill in the forward group with few dollars available.
I might be in the minority here, but I think Trevor Zegras would be a great addition for the Kraken. He has immense skill and had a rough season due to ankle surgery followed by a groin injury. Zegras’ cap hit is more manageable at $5.75 million per year, and the Kraken could potentially acquire him at a lower cost. The question is whether the 2023-24 season was just a blip or if that’s the player Zegras will be.
I don’t think Laine makes sense for the Kraken to pursue unless Columbus retains salary and/or sweetens the pot to make the risk associated with his $8.7 million cap hit worthwhile. The Kraken need goals, which Laine can provide, but that’s all he can do, and this team might not be able to afford his deficiencies in other areas. Despite the rumors, I don’t see this as a fit.
If I were the Kraken, I’d look at Winnipeg’s Nikolaj Ehlers and Tampa Bay’s Tanner Jeannot. Both players have been mentioned as potential trade candidates but aren’t getting a lot of headlines right now. They are very different players, but both could fill a need the Kraken had last season. Ehlers can reliably score 20 or more goals in a season, and Jeannot has the physical edge that seemed to be missing from Seattle’s lineup last season.
The Kraken have been among the top teams in terms of quantity of draft picks over the last few years. With one first-round pick, two second-round picks, and two third-round picks this draft, the team doesn’t need all those picks. Given their quantity of picks and solid prospect pool, the organization is well-positioned to package some of those chips together for talent that can help next season.
Draft thoughts
Assuming no trades, the Seattle Kraken will be drafting in the eighth position on Friday night when the NHL Draft kicks off. The top 10 of the draft class is loaded with defensemen, and the Kraken’s prospect pool lacks high-end blueliners. It’s not guaranteed, but I anticipate the Kraken drafting a defenseman with their first selection at eighth overall. I’ve been fascinated by Zeev Buium and Zayne Parekh, but that’s based on reading a dozen articles and getting caught in a YouTube vortex. No matter how much research we do, the Kraken scouting staff will have logged thousands more hours in preparation for this draft. They know what they are doing. Regardless of who they pick, they should get a great player at eighth overall.
Here is a look at the Kraken’s draft history:
Expect a ton of draft content coming to Sound Of Hockey this week, including a live blog for day two of the draft.
Other musings
It sure would be nice to know what Matty Beniers’ and Eeli Tolvanen’s contracts will look like next season before free agency begins to see how much budget the Kraken have to play with on July 1. Hopefully, they are close and have a good idea where they might land.
A couple of people have asked if the Kraken might be interested in Winnipeg’s prospect, Rutger McGroarty. Of course, they would be interested, but I just don’t think he is what the Kraken need right now. Based on all post-season availabilities from the Kraken front office, they are trying to get better now, not seasons from now. McGroarty would be a great prospect, but he doesn’t fit that agenda.
Another circulating rumor is the possible trade of Brandon Tanev to Ottawa. This would make a lot of sense from the Seattle Kraken’s side. If they are looking to get better, they need to clear additional cap space and roster spots to repurpose those slots with more scoring. Fans love Brandon Tanev, but this is the truth.
The 2023-24 NHL season will go down as having the most games ever played in a single season, with 1511 total games. Last season had 1508. This record will be instantly broken the next time the NHL expands.
I really hope Chris Driedger gets a shot in the NHL next season. He has been solid all year for the Coachella Valley Firebirds and was narrowly beaten out by Joey Daccord at the beginning of the 2023-24 season as the second goalie in Seattle. He deserves another shot.
Ryan Winterton is having a great Calder Cup Final. He has five goals in the first six games of the series and has been generating a lot of shots. I wonder where the Kraken brass will have him penciled in next season. Based on his late-season call-up games, I thought he needed another year of development in Coachella Valley, but now I’m not so sure.
Watching Coachella Valley through the playoffs, I realize that the Seattle Kraken don’t have a bona fide third goalie they can count on in a pinch if either Grubauer or Daccord gets hurt for an extended amount of time next year. Only Niklas Kokko and Victor Ostman are under contract for next season, and I am not sure they would be ready to step in to a prolonged stint in the NHL. They have used three goalies in each of the last three seasons, so this leaves me to expect the Kraken to sign a goalie who can move between the AHL and NHL next season.
Although not Kraken-related, I am interested to see where Ivan Demidov gets selected. He is said to have elite skill but hasn’t been battle tested, since he spent the season in the MHL, which is a large gap to the NHL. I think Demidov will end up being one of the big stories of the first round.
I expect the 2024-25 schedule to be released this week. Word around the campfire is that for the first time in franchise history, the Seattle Kraken will open at home. If I am a betting man, I would put money on Oct. 8.
It is extremely unlikely that the Kraken would be able to take him in the second round, but I’ve been obsessed with Michael Brandsegg-Nygård ever since someone sent me this video.
Two minutes of Michael Brandsegg-Nygård breaking up plays on the forecheck, hustling for loose pucks, winning body positioning, and running over grown men like it's nothing.
The Calder Cup Finals have given us some great goals including this one from Shane Wright, but the setup from Cale Fleury at center ice was incredible.
This is going to be a wild week of activity, and I anticipate the Kraken making moves to bolster the team for next season. We already have a ton of content planned and will keep you abreast of any breaking news. If you have any thoughts or questions, let us know in the comments section below.
Enjoy Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, Game 6 of the Calder Cup Finals, and then buckle up for what will surely be a busy week for the Seattle Kraken.
This is follow-up to a recent Sound Of Hockey article where we sat down with the Seattle Kraken Ice Breakers to better understand the role they play at Kraken games. There was one question around the science behind scraping the ice that got me wondering how much of an impact ice scrapes have on NHL games, so we are going to dig into the statistics of goals scored following ice scrapes to see if we can uncover anything interesting.
Here was the question:
Blaiz Grubic: Is there any science behind scraping the ice or a benefit to gameplay?
Kevin Ruuhela: If there is a science to it, I’m not aware of it, but from personal experience playing hockey since about the age of six, I know that the puck moves much more smoothly and consistently on ice without snow. When there are patches of snow, the puck can sometimes abruptly change speed on you and throw you off. I also know that goalies typically prefer less snow so there’s less material to get in their eyes from sticks and skates as players move around the crease.
To summarize Kevin’s answer and take it a bit farther, I came up with the following very simple theory:
Playing on smoother ice should increase scoring.
Let’s see how the statistics align with this theory.
Approach
For this data analysis, only even-strength goals (five-on-five) were reviewed. This removes any advantage a team might have and focuses on an even playing surface. Ice time was separated into two buckets:
Fresh Ice – I’m defining this as the 150 seconds following an ice scrape or period start. The period start is included, as the ice has been freshly resurfaced.
Rough Ice – Time accrued after the initial 150 seconds until the next fresh ice event.
150 seconds was chosen because, per Ruuhela, there are three planned ice scrapes during each period. Since each period starts with freshly Zambonied ice, there are a total of four fresh ice events. Two minutes and 30 seconds (or 150 seconds) multiplied by the four fresh ice events equals 10 minutes of fresh ice and 10 minutes of rough ice per period. Assuming there are no advantages given to teams during even-strength play, goals should be scored at a linear rate to the time on ice.
Here is a breakdown of how a period splits into the two buckets of ice:
In reality, ice scrapes are delayed or missed, so the actual percentages of time on fresh versus rough ice are not exactly 50 percent each. Actual percentages came out to 46.86 percent for fresh ice and 53.14 percent for rough ice.
Data was analyzed for the past three seasons for all NHL teams. In total, 3,936 games and 16,250 even-strength goals were reviewed.
Analysis
To prove the theory, there should be more fresh ice goals than rough ice goals. What the data shows is the opposite, and a reduction in goals is observed following a fresh ice event.
The above chart is a bit hard to interpret, so let me try to provide some context. It is showing that 34.36 percent of the game, the ice is fresh following an ice scrape, but only 31.10 percent of goals are scored during this time. On the other hand, the ice is rough 53.14 percent of the time, and 56.52 percent of the goals are scored in these periods. Goal scoring on freshly Zambonied ice is almost linearly equal with 12.50 percent of the time accounting for 12.38 percent of the goals.
The total for fresh ice time is 46.86 percent of games, and 43.48 percent of 5-on-5 goals are scored during these periods.
Overall, there was a 6.76 percent swing between fresh ice scoring and rough ice scoring over the past three seasons. This means offense is up when the ice is rough and down after a fresh ice event.
Here are the raw data:
5v5 Goals
Time in Minutes
Delta
Fresh Ice – Period start
2,012 (12.38%)
29,520 (12.50%)
-0.12%
Fresh Ice – After Scrape
5,054 (31.10%)
81,151.67 (34.36%)
-3.26%
Rough Ice
9,184 (56.52%)
125,488.33 (53.14%)
+3.38%
Totals
16,250
236,160
Goaltending
Remember, this is only looking at 5-on-5 goals, so no empty netters or power-play goals are included. Seeing that goal scoring is down following a fresh ice event got me thinking about goalie save percentage. Following similar logic, I analyzed the shot data for the 2023-24 NHL season to calculate league-wide goalie save percentage for even-strength play on rough and fresh ice.
Sure enough, the goaltenders see a boost in save percentage following a fresh ice event. I am speculating here, but for similar reasons we theorized that scoring would be up due to smoother ice. The goaltenders could be even more of a benefactor of smooth ice, as puck movement is more predictable.
Conclusion
This was a fun project, and I was surprised by the results. There is probably more to dig into here, because one thing I thought of is that even after a scrape by the ice crew, the playing surface is certainly smoother at the beginning of a period and following resurfacing than it is at the end. So, perhaps all “fresh” and “rough” ice is not created equal.
Still, in all my years of watching and playing hockey, I have always thought the opposite to be true, that when the ice had received some sort of attention either from the ice crew or from the Zamboni, teams would score more. There was a lot more data collected than presented here, but to quickly summarize it, shots, turnovers, various fresh ice time intervals, and regulation goals in all situations were factored in and showed the same result. There is a reduction in scoring and a boost to goaltending save percentage following an ice scrape.
If you have any questions or thoughts please comment below. You can follow @blaizg on x.com.
USA Hockey player memberships grew by 1.5 percent over the 2023-24 season compared to the previous season. While this growth is a positive sign for hockey participation, the numbers have not yet reached the pre-pandemic levels of the 2018-19 season. Let’s dive into the details of the report to understand where hockey is growing and identify potential opportunities for further growth.
USA Hockey player memberships by year
USA Hockey reported 564,468 player members during the 2023-24 season. This represents an increase of 8,262 members from the previous season, although it is slightly lower than the 8,757 new members added in 2022-23.
Despite the increase, the 564,468 memberships are still below the pre-pandemic peak of 567,908. However, another year of modest growth could help surpass that number next season. These figures encompass all player memberships, including both adult and youth hockey players. Let’s take a closer look at the youth membership numbers.
Examining individual state growth reveals that Florida experienced the highest percentage increase in hockey players, with an 8.4 percent rise last season. Michigan added the most memberships, with 2,966 new players. Florida’s growth is likely driven by the success of the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning over the past decade. Historically, states with NHL teams that are not traditionally hockey-centric tend to see a measurable impact when their regional NHL teams perform well in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Michigan’s situation is somewhat different. Despite having the fourth-highest number of USA Hockey members, Michigan has been experiencing a steady decline since its peak in 2010-11. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many leagues and rinks in Michigan are not affiliated with USA Hockey, so their numbers are not reflected in the USA Hockey membership data. The recent spike could be due to one of these non-USA Hockey leagues transitioning to require USA Hockey memberships.
I expected Nevada to add more than the modest increase of 116 members this season, especially after the Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup last June. However, it is challenging to account for that state’s capacity for hockey, meaning that the current ice rinks in Nevada might be at full capacity. Limited rink availability continues to be one of the biggest constraints to growing the game.
Age groups
Breaking down the data by age categories reveals that adult hockey is growing at the highest rate, but there is also growth in the age categories from nine to 18 years old.
Female hockey driving growth
Although smaller in overall numbers, USA Hockey membership among females is increasing at a higher rate than the total memberships.
Unpacking Washington State
Following the Seattle Kraken’s first Stanley Cup Playoff appearance and subsequent playoff round victory, Washington State added 406 player memberships this season, making it the sixth-highest increase in the US.
While this is promising, I would have expected more, given the excitement that gripped the city during the playoffs. Kraken Community Iceplex tends to be fully utilized during all operating hours, so it could be that they are already at capacity.
Examining the growth and decline by age group in Washington State reveals a concerning trend: declines in the under-eight age category. Ideally, we could dig deeper to identify if specific regions or associations are struggling to attract these younger age groups. While the arrival of the Kraken has been fantastic for hockey’s growth, smaller associations might find it harder to promote their youth programs under the shadow of the Kraken Youth Hockey Association.
Interactive Dashboard
For a state-by-state breakdown of USA Hockey memberships, I’ve created an interactive dashboard where you can drill down by state. If you encounter any issues or have questions, please let me know.
