As the calendar turns to September, developmental hockey leagues across the world are back on the ice for games. And since it’s never too early to start thinking about the next NHL Draft (right?), that means the time is now to get out a preseason watchlist of 2025 NHL Draft prospects.
The “Data Score” approach
As in years past, my list is based on quantifiable data only. It’s built from the bedrock of an NHL equivalency (or “NHLe”). What is NHLe? NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2023-24 season data.
For this preseason watchlist, I used player data scoring data from the 2022-23 season filtered through Chatel’s NHLe. I then make adjustments for age, height, and position, as well as a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring draft-eligible players playing in high-level professional leagues. I’ve gone through the methodology previously here and here. The product of my work is a number I’ve termed a prospect’s “Data Score.” This number no longer projects NHL scoring but is (hopefully) useful in describing the relative strength of prospects.
One change I’m making this year is in the language I’m using. In the past I have referred to my Data Score list as data-only “ranking.” But, upon reflection, I don’t think the term “ranking” is productive in describing the work. I’m not engaged in the extraordinarily challenging process of subjective prospect-to-prospect comparison. Instead, I’m simply providing a list of top scoring players for further scouting investigation, loosely graduated based on their data. I think this is how the best-run NHL teams use NHLe data or other data-based measures. The data helps identify players as a tool to further research and scouting. So, moving forward, I’ll do my best to refrain from referring to Data Score as an NHL Draft ranking.
How did last year’s preseason watchlist fare?
Just how useful is a Data Score based on a player’s scoring data from the season before the draft year in question? As you might expect, it’s not perfect. Players—particularly first-time draft-eligible players—often take a very large statistical leap in their draft seasons as they continue to mature. An important season awaits all of these players. And there are always players that teams and scouts “like” (or “dislike”) more than their scoring data would suggest.
That said, it is remarkable how much you can learn even from scoring data predating the draft year. Looking at last year’s top-32 first-time draft eligibles on my preseason watchlist, draftniks will see a lot of familiar names. The top five picks in the 2024 NHL Draft were all there, as were a remarkable 11 of the top 15 players drafted.
All told, 15 of the top 32 in my preseason list were drafted in the first round and 26 were selected within the top four rounds of the 2024 NHL Draft. The six that went later or undrafted were one Russian player, two defensemen 5-foot-11 or shorter, and three forwards 5-foot-10 or shorter.
The accuracy of last year’s preseason list as a predictive tool declines the deeper you go into it, but this remarkable success rate at the top gives me confidence that the Data Score approach can serve its purpose as a watchlist.
2025 NHL Draft first-time eligible prospect watchlist
Without further preamble, here are the 32 first-time eligible draft prospects with the highest Data Score. (If “totals” is listed under “Team,” it means the player played for multiple teams in the league indicated.)
As mentioned above, the names in this range are the most notable. Broadly speaking, the CHL continues as the top developmental league, accounting for 21 of these 32 prospects. Notable to me, though, is the presence of six players from the QMJHL after that league went largely unrepresented at the top of the 2024 NHL Draft. Could it be a bounce back year for the Q?
Prospects who have already garnered significant draft coverage, including James Hagens, Ivan Ryabkin, Porter Martone, Michael Misa, Malcolm Spence, Roger McQueen, and Anton Frondell, show up within this list. At this point in the process, I don’t believe it would surprise anyone if all seven were drafted in the top 10 in the spring. Good friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast Chris Peters has them all listed within his “Way Too Early Top 10 Prospect List” for the 2025 Draft.
Beyond the top 32, here are 64 more first-time draft-eligible prospects to watch:
2025 NHL Draft re-entry prospect watchlist
Each year, many prospects who slipped through the cracks of the previous draft(s) finally hear their names called. 42 such re-draft prospects were selected in the 2024 NHL Draft. From a Seattle Kraken perspective, Ryker Evans is an example of one such prospect who had to wait an extra year to get drafted in 2022. And, as Evans proved, there is still a pathway to NHL success for these players. Here are 64 re-draft candidates to watch.
A few near misses preview the 2026 NHL Draft
Age eligibility for the 2025 NHL Draft cuts off at Sept. 15, 2007. If a player is born after that date in 2007, he is not eligible until the 2026 draft. It so happens that this year’s draft might look quite a bit different at the top if the rule instead allowed all 2007-born players to be eligible.
Burgeoning superstar forward Gavin McKenna (birthdate: 12/20/2007) would bump James Hagens out of the No. 1 overall spot on the watchlist if he were eligible for this draft with a Data Score of 64.71. As it is, McKenna seems destined for draft hype reminiscent of his cousin Connor Bedard once next season rolls around. The fact that McKenna still has two seasons left for the Medicine Hat Tigers is scary for the rest of the WHL.
Beyond McKenna, defenseman Xavier Villeneuve (9/29/2007) of the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL) and forward Ryan Roobroeck (9/25/2007) of the Niagara IceDogs (OHL) would also be in the 2025 NHL Draft watchlist top 10 if they were eligible. Forward Arseni Ilyin (12/24/2007) of SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (MHL) would come in just outside the top 32, but his data suggests he could be the next big name from Russia.
All four of these players are names to track for the future.
Continued draft coverage at Sound Of Hockey
Like last year, we intend to develop a library of draft prospect videos for the 2025 NHL Draft, as well as generate the Sound Of Hockey Big Board and a final data-only list. If time allows, we’ll also plan on doing a midseason check-in on our watchlist. Is there anything else you’d like to see from our draft coverage at Sound Of Hockey? Leave a note in the comments below or reach out to us on X, formerly known as Twitter, @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Header photo courtesy Brian Liesse, Seattle Thunderbirds.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Finally, everyone can awake from their hockey hibernation. With the ice laid down and frozen in arenas across the Western Hockey League, it signals both the end of summer and the start of a brand new season on the horizon. When it’s said that this could be one of the most talented seasons in recent league memory, it’s truly meant.
This past NHL Draft showed that the league’s growth in recent years has been exponential, as 34 total players selected was the highest among all developmental leagues worldwide. So, ahead of what’s sure to be a thrilling season, there are plenty of new and exciting things to check out.
Here’s what’s in store for the 2024-25 season.
1. Everett and Spokane games now have major Kraken implications
The Everett Silvertips and Spokane Chiefs will likely have the most eyes on them (at least regionally speaking) for the entire season, as matchups between them will feature three highly touted Seattle Kraken prospects.
In Everett, defenseman Kaden Hammell and forward Julius Miettinen will be right in the Kraken’s backyard for whenever fans want to see them, and it will be fun to see how exceptional-status defenseman Landon DuPont performs in his first season in the WHL.
But of course, the main event will be when Spokane comes to town with Kraken first-round pick, Berkly Catton. The Chiefs will visit Everett on three occasions this upcoming season, with the first contest scheduled for Nov. 22, followed by Jan. 10, and Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, the Tips have three trips of their own to Spokane, all in the second half of the season.
The Chiefs’ promotional staff had a smart idea with Catton becoming a Kraken, as they are selling a special ticket package for games featuring other prospects for the team.
The No. 8 overall selection in this past draft didn’t have to wait long to become a fan favorite, at least among the Spokane faithful. Many were already familiar with Catton before he was selected and signed to an entry-level contract during Kraken Development Camp.
There’s sure to be far more regional attention paid to him now, as he arguably became the top prospect in the organization after the selection. For this WHL season, the Chiefs will go as Catton goes, and fortunately for them, he’s all but certain to break out even further into the star playmaker he’s projected to be at the NHL level.
He’s bound to surpass the 60-goal mark, too, having topped out at 54 in 68 games last season. Heck, it’s not outlandish to think 65-70 could be a possibility if he stays healthy, as he possesses a natural offensive talent that will be hard for any defense to deny. More on him later this week.
3. How Seattle and Tri-City plan to bounce back
The two teams that missed out on the playoffs last season are vying to make their way back in. And while they aren’t expected to go far, there are pieces there that could be interesting to watch develop.
Seattle fell short of defending its league title from the season before, but they did build momentum down the stretch of last season. Even without making the playoffs, there were moments where the youth began to emerge and win some games here and there. Developing and gaining experience for the younger players might continue to be the name of the game for the Thunderbirds this season as well.
Meanwhile, the Tri-City Americans will look to recover from falling out of the playoff spot they held for about two-thirds of the season. They’ve made some much-needed moves to put themselves in a better position to compete this season.
The Americans retooled a bit this summer, trading Kraken prospect Lukas Dragicevic to the Prince Albert Raiders, a trade request made by the player. They received a myriad of assets in return, including D Terrell Goldsmith, F Grady Martin, and G Nathan Preston.
It’ll be interesting to see how F Jordan Gavin develops going into his draft year, as he’s currently projected to go somewhere near the end of the first round or in the early second round on some draft boards.
4. Which new head coach will have the most impact?
Four new head coaches arrived in the U.S. Division for the four teams that ironically qualified for the playoffs last season. All four are WHL veteran coaches in their own right.
Everett’s Steve Hamilton, Spokane’s Brad Lauer, and Wenatchee’s Don Nachbaur have all combined for over 30 years of head coaching experience. Meanwhile, the successor to long-time coach Mike Johnston in Portland, Kyle Gustafson, has been under his and the Winterhawks’ tutelage for two decades.
It was discussed earlier this offseason, but most of these coaches are coming into good situations already. So, it’s going to come down to how much they can make the most of their rosters to see who goes the farthest.
5. Central Division teams coming to town
One of the few downsides of the WHL is only getting to see Eastern Conference foes make their journeys and play in the region once every two seasons. But the good news is that a really good batch of teams from the Central Division is set to make their way through.
Last season, Kraken prospect Jagger Firkus and his Moose Jaw Warriors of the Eastern Division stole the show during “Circus Week in the PNW,” which allowed many fans to see one of the Kraken’s marquee prospects in person for the very first time.
This season, in a similar fashion to Firkus, recent Kraken fourth-rounder Ollie Josephson and the Red Deer Rebels will make their way to town between Nov. 8 and 16.
We’ll have to find another clever nickname for that trip too, especially if Josephson gets out to a hot start to his season. How does “The Ollie Rollie” sound? We can workshop it.
It will also be quite fun when the Medicine Hat Tigers swing through between Jan. 24 and Feb. 1. With Andrew Basha, Cayden Lindstrom, and the recently acquired Ryder Ritchie all being selected in the first two rounds of last summer’s NHL Draft, this team is already stacked with NHL prospects. And that’s not even to mention the likes of Gavin McKenna, who could be the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.
Medicine Hat Tigers are going to be stacked next year: Gavin McKenna Cayden Lindstrom Ryder Ritchie Andrew Basha Markus and Liam Ruck Hunter St. Martin Jonas Woo Bryce Pickford Could be like the Vancouver Giants where you make the Memorial Cup a year before hosting
During his exceptional-status 15/16-year-old season, McKenna erupted for 97 points in 61 games, and he’s projected to have even more outstanding and absurd numbers this season.
Barring anything drastic, when the Tigers face the Silvertips in Everett on Wednesday, Jan. 29, it will mark just the second time in league history that two exceptional-status players (McKenna and DuPont) will share the ice as opponents in the same game.
So, circle the calendars for what might be the only few times to see McKenna play live before he and the rest of his teammates turn pro within the next few years.
Welcome back to hockey, everyone. Predictions for the upcoming campaign will be coming soon.
On July 5, Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis took the microphone at center ice and addressed fans assembled for the the last day of Kraken Development Camp to announce the team’s re-signing of Eeli Tolvanen. That same day, Francis also announced the signing of Berkly Catton to his entry-level contract, indicating that the Kraken were front office was taking care of business and checking items off its summer to-do list. But as the applause and the excitement of the day died down, all attention turned to the one piece of unfinished business: signing Matty Beniers.
At the time, we knew that the Kraken were in talks with the young forward’s camp. Francis told the media on July 1 that the team had already spoken with agent Pat Brisson and planned to do so again on July 2.
Finally, on August 20, the dam broke. The Kraken announced the team had signed Beniers to a seven-year, $50 million contract, carrying a $7.14 million average annual value.
Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown gave his instant analysis after the news dropped. With the benefit of extra time to analyze the deal–and finish a vacation, ahem–what else can we say about where Beniers and his contract stacks up against the league and similar deals struck over the years? And what conclusions can we draw about whether the Kraken made a sound investment? Here are my takeaways on the deal.
1. Beniers makes history again
Matty Beniers is Seattle’s first ever draft pick, highest-drafted player, first draft pick to make his career debut with the team, and its first player to win a major NHL award–the 2023 Calder Trophy. His new contract now joins that litany of milestones.
In what is highly unlikely a coincidence, Beniers’ deal matches the term and total dollar value of the richest contract in Kraken history–the contract Seattle gave to defenseman Brandon Montour on July 1. (Vince Dunn’s contract remains the richest in terms of AAV.)
The seven-year term is also the longest contract in team history, tied with contracts given to Montour and Chandler Stephenson earlier this offseason. While the deal is lengthy, it is one year short of the eight-year maximum term in the CBA for a team’s own restricted free agent. It ties Beniers to the Kraken through his age 28 season, and it buys out one unrestricted free agent year.
Let’s get quizzical: The Matty Beniers contract is the first time the Kraken have signed one of their draft picks to a second deal after the player’s entry-level contract. It is not, however, the first time the team has signed a player to a second contract after originally signing the player to an entry-level contract. It has happened twice previously. Can you name the two players? Scroll to the bottom of the article for the answer (or listen to the last Sound Of Hockey Podcast).
2. The Beniers contract comes in near market projections
Earlier in the offseason, Evolving Hockey and AFP Analytics published contract projections for notable unrestricted and restricted free agents. While their full methods are not public, each outfit uses contracts signed by comparable players as a basis.
Evolving Hockey projected Beniers’ most likely contract as a seven-year, $7.1 million dollar AAV contract. After rounding, this is precisely the contract that the team and player settled on. For its part, AFP Analytics projected a seven-year deal, carrying a $6.6 million AAV. This was also quite close to the actual deal.
AFP Analytics used the following player contracts as comparables:
I’ll return to a few of these names in a moment.
3. Beniers’ market value slipped from where it was last offseason
If Matty Beniers’ new contract checked in at (or ever-so-slightly above) his market value, one might question the near unanimous public praise of the deal. I think there are three explanations for the reaction–rooted in fandom, anchoring bias, and structural factors, respectively.
First, among Kraken fans, I believe many are justifiably excited that a young player they have followed closely will be with the team long-term. Beniers’ willingness to commit to seven years in Seattle is viewed as a positive, particularly coming off a disappointing campaign for the team. That factor alone makes the deal a win for many.
Second, when a contract extension for Beniers was first discussed last summer, several analysts, myself included, predicted an extension with a maximum eight-year term and approximately $64 million total ($8 million dollars annually). I arrived at this figure using age and point production comparables at the time. Judged against that standard, securing Beniers for $14 million “less” in total commitments could be viewed as a win for the team in a salary cap environment.
Yet, the fact is, Beniers’ market value declined this past season as his offensive production fell from .71 points per game in 2022-23 to .48 points per game in 2023-24. This sophomore regression casts more doubt on his ultimate offensive upside and puts him into a slightly different contract category. Viewing this deal as a “value” relative to earlier expectations may be an example of “anchoring bias”–a cognitive bias where we weigh our initial impressions of Beniers, both on-ice and in projecting the long-term value, too heavily. We think Beniers is “really” the Calder Trophy winner and last year was an aberration.
How much to weigh Beniers’ on-ice production decline was likely a key sticking point in negotiations. As we have said on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we believe that there was an eight-year contract offer on the table for Beniers last offseason. This offseason, both sides mitigated their risk by settling on a seven-year term. From the team perspective, the team gets some relief by lowering the total dollar commitment.
From Beniers’ perspective, he has the chance to get to unrestricted free agency one year sooner and potentially recoup the money he “lost” due to his down season. Beniers’ $7.14 million AAV represents 8.12 percent of the 2024-25 salary cap. If he is able to maintain his on-ice value over the course of his current deal and secure another deal worth 8.12 percent of the cap in 2031, his 2031-32 salary would be a little more than $10 million (assuming five percent annual growth in the cap). This would mitigate most of what he may have “lost” by his down season. But it shifts a fair amount of injury and performance risk onto Beniers.
Third, we need to keep in mind that structural factors depress the salaries of all young players. Given what we know about how hockey players age, the next half decade projects to be the most productive of Beniers’ career. Even so, under league rules, Beniers was still six years away from being able to freely negotiate a contract with all 32 NHL teams. I think most would agree that Beniers’ contract is likely to be a better production-to-dollar “value” than Chandler Stephenson’s deal from earlier in the offseason. But Stephenson had the leverage of unrestricted free agency. We improve our evaluations when we take a closer look at player leverage in grading the “value” of a deal achieved by the team. Stephenson had it; Beniers–like other young players–didn’t have it.
4. Beniers trails many players who have earned similar contracts in shot generation
Digging a little deeper, I wanted to see how Beniers measured up against players who had received similar contracts in the past. In an exercise that would have been many hours of labor easier in the CapFriendly era, I assembled a list of all contracts signed in the last 15 years by a forward aged 23 years old or younger with a contract term of six years or longer, and an AAV of between seven percent and 9.25 percent of the salary cap in the first year of the contract. This exercise returned 25 total results, including Beniers’ deal:
The good news is, every one of these players is still in the league and producing. James Van Reimsdyk doesn’t currently have a contract, but, even at 35 years old, I’d be surprised if he didn’t find a home by opening day. And all but one of these players (Brandon Saad) saw their per-game point production continue to increase post-signing. (Seth Jarvis and Juraj Slafkovsky, like Beniers, haven’t yet played post-signing.)
Beniers fits comfortably within this list in several important respects. Of these 25 players, Beniers ranked 13th in total time on ice and ninth in average time on ice at the time of signing. This reflects the substantial role he has played for the Kraken early in his career–even relative to a distinguished list of players. Beniers also has the high-profile pedigree characteristic of players earning a contract like this. All but one of these 25 players (Saad again) was a first round pick, with 18 of 25 being a top-10 pick, like Beniers.
It’s a great list for Beniers to be on.
On the other hand, Beniers’ actual and expected point production trails the average in this group when normalizing for ice time. Beniers is toward the bottom of the list (t-20th) with 2.12 points per 60 minutes at the time of signing. Likewise, his individual expected goals per 60 minutes of 0.80 is in the bottom five in this group (t-21st).
What is the root of the issue? Beniers struggles to generate his own shots on goal relative to this peer group. He sees the ice well and can generate looks for his teammates at a reasonable clip (17th in assists/60), but he generates only 6.12 shots on goal per 60 minutes, which is the third-lowest of this group of players.
He needs to take a leap forward in generating his own scoring chances, particularly from the most dangerous areas of the ice, if he is going to be an “average” performer among his peers in this comparable contract group.
This is particularly true because contracts like Beniers’ deal come with the weight of public and organizational expectation. Consider the case of Nikolaj Ehlers–one of Beniers’ contract comparables. He has continued as a solid performer and analytics darling for the life of his contract in Winnipeg, but his inability to take control of games and score, particularly late in the season and in the playoffs, has led to ever-increasing scrutiny and trade rumors.
5. Seattle is paying for Beniers’ future role and production
I also wanted to see where Beniers’ contract stacks up against the other centers in the league going into the 2024-25 season. While public position tracking data isn’t perfect, I tabulated a list of NHL forwards with a minimum threshold of total face-offs as a stand-in for the league’s centers. Beniers’ contract ranks 36th by average annual value–equivalent of high-end 2C.
Yet, his .48 points per game from last season ranked 93rd among the group–equivalent of a low-end 3C.
All of the foregoing analysis leads me to the conclusion that the Beniers contract is slightly above Beniers’ market value based on historical precedent and existing production.
Even so, Seattle likely saw at least four legitimate reasons to agree to that deal. First and foremost is the rising cap. For the first time in years, a team can have confidence in a steadily rising cap over the medium-term. A rising cap decreases the burden of a long-term deal like this on a percentage basis.
Second, Beniers is young enough that his point production can reasonably be expected to continue to improve. Among the comparable contract group, those players saw an average .21 point-per-game production increase after signing their new deals. If Beniers’ numbers see a similar uptick, he would settle in around a .83 point-per-game player going forward. This production would have ranked him 34th in the league this past season–almost precisely the same spot as his salary puts him.
Third, the team almost certainly values the narrative and public persona of Matty Beniers. Beniers was the Kraken’s first draft pick. He represented the team at the 2024 NHL Draft, announcing top pick Catton. He sits squarely at the center of conversations about the next captain of the Kraken. I’m sure the team would like Beniers–and his likable, professional demeanor–to be the face of the franchise moving forward. This has value beyond goals and assists.
Finally, I do believe it is fair to say Beniers’ point production doesn’t accurately convey his on-ice value. As Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones recently wrote, Beniers delivers excellent defensive zone and transition play, and this has value.
On the other hand, Beniers has not yet been able to compliment and buttress those ample skills with consistent offensive-zone play driving and shot generation. The best defense is the ability to trap the puck in the offensive zone. Only when Beniers gets more effective offensively will his defensive exploits truly get the recognition they deserve.
In the meantime, we risk overstating Beniers’ value by comparing his skills beyond the statsheet to Beniers’ childhood role model Patrice Bergeron. (Jordan Eberle made this comparison again recently to 93.3 FM KJR.) Bergeron was already a .9 point-per-game player in his age 20 season–a mark Beniers has not yet approached. Bergeron tilted the ice with his all-around game. Beniers is not in the same neighborhood offensively.
To the contrary, Beniers’ numbers at signing are much closer to those of ex-teammate Alex Wennberg when Wennberg signed a six-year contract with Columbus as a 22-year-old. Wennberg wasn’t among the comparables I analyzed because his contract accounted for only 6.5 percent of the cap in its first year. But, as noted above, AFP Analytics saw Wennberg as Beniers’ fourth-most similar player contract in projecting Beniers’ deal this summer.
As Kraken fans no doubt recall, Wennberg struggled to create his own shots too. Wennberg’s inability to grow into a more dynamic offensive game contributed to Columbus buying out his contract early. Wennberg’s career trajectory is a sobering cautionary tale. Beniers needs to take another step forward offensively to escape a similar trajectory.
6. The Collective Bargaining Agreement minimizes the risk here
While I don’t think the Beniers deal is necessarily a strong value based on market comparables, it is important to note that the Collective Bargain Agreement incentivizes big bets like this one on young talent. Until a player turns 26, a team has the option to buy out the remainder of a contract at just one-third of the remaining salary value.
With respect to Beniers, this means that if Beniers stagnates offensively or his injury issues grow, the team will have the option after each of the next four seasons to get out of the deal for a fraction of the cost. (As mentioned above, this is what the Blue Jackets did with Wennberg.) For this reason alone, a long-term bet on a player as talented as Matty Beniers is a good one. It’s mostly upside for the team.
7. Seattle’s cap sheet suggests another transaction may be coming
After accounting for Beniers’ new contract, the Seattle Kraken have just a few thousand dollars in cap space remaining with only 12 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goaltenders on the roster. This is two players short of the maximum roster limit.
Brandon Tanev (Brian Liesse/Photo)
The situation has the potential to become untenable very quickly should normal wear-and-tear injuries arise. If a player with a significant contract were to suffer a long-term injury, it could break the cap crunch by allowing the team cap relief associated with a so-called “LTIR” designation. But, as it stands, the team faces the risk of entering the season hamstrung from rostering even one extra forward. This is not how teams like to operate.
Accordingly, I would not be surprised if the Kraken are active in trade calls that could provide some relief. Forward Brandon Tanev is the most obvious candidate to move because he has on-ice value but a single year of a multi-million dollar cap hit and can be replaced by several players in the organization at a lower number. Other avenues are possible too but would likely require either a replacement piece coming back or a bigger roster shake-up.
This is one storyline to follow as we draw nearer to training camp.
Let’s get quizzical answer: Earlier this offseason, the Kraken re-signed first-ever signee Luke Henman and goalie Ales Stezka after their entry-level contracts expired.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
As the Kraken embark on their fourth season, Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord are set to again share time between the pipes. Seattle was a top-10 team in goals against (232) and save percentage (.909) during the 2023-24 season, but notably, it was the only top-10 team in goals against that missed the playoffs.
Kraken goaltending has improved every year since the team’s inception. Will it take another positive step in the upcoming season?
Goalies under contract
Grubauer and Daccord are the only two goaltenders under contract with NHL experience within the Kraken organization. Grubauer has three years remaining on his contract with an annual cap hit of $5.9 million. Daccord is entering the final year of his two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.2 million. General manager Ron Francis will need to make a decision on Daccord’s future within the next year, but at least to start the season, and barring injury, the goaltending positions do not appear to be open for competition.
How they fared last year
Grubauer has faced scrutiny for his performance over the first three years of his Kraken tenure, some of which is warranted; his save percentage has yet to eclipse .900 for a full season with Seattle. However, as Kraken goaltending as a whole has improved year over year, he too has taken positive steps with each campaign, with last season being his best statistically since joining the Kraken.
Grubauer missed two months due to a lower-body injury between December and February, limiting him to 36 games on the season. Even after he returned, then-coach Dave Hakstol continued running Daccord out as the starter for a couple more weeks before Grubauer finally returned to game action on Feb. 13, when he re-took the 1A goaltender role for the remainder of the season, playing in 19 games down the stretch.
During this span, he posted a .911 save percentage and a 2.52 goals-against average (GAA). If you exclude the game against Montreal on Mar. 24, when he was pulled, his save percentage improves to .918. The Kraken as a whole did not fare well in their final 30 games, going 13-14-3, but Grubauer was in net for nine of the 13 wins. He also faced tougher competition, starting seven games against playoff-bound teams compared to Daccord’s four. Grubauer finished the season with a 9-7-1 record over his last 17 starts.
The 2023-24 season marked Daccord’s full-time arrival in the NHL. The 27-year-old goaltender was not eligible to be considered a rookie but made a strong impression in his first full season. His standout moment came in front of 47,000 fans during the Winter Classic, where he shutout the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, 3-0.
He also played a key role in the Kraken’s franchise-best nine-game winning streak. Unfortunately, following the streak, the Kraken went 2-6-1 and fell out of playoff contention. Daccord finished the season with 50 games played and ranked sixth in the NHL in GAA (2.46) and save percentage (.915). However, he cooled off in the latter part of the season, finishing 4-7-2 with a .898 save percentage and a 2.73 GAA from mid-February onward.
Joey Daccord and Yanni Gourde answer questions following the 2024 Winter Classic. (Photo/Darren Brown)
Who is the starting goaltender?
Both goalies made a case to be the starter with their performances last season. But who will ultimately snag that “1A” role to start 2024-25?
The case for Grubauer
Grubauer finished last season strong and has the experience and contract to be the Kraken’s starter. Though that big contract isn’t the reason to give him the job, the Kraken (and I) want to see him succeed, and he’ll be given the opportunity to do so. At 32 years old, staying healthy, getting into a rhythm early in the season, and continuing his solid play from last season are crucial.
The case for Daccord
Daccord excelled when Grubauer was sidelined, leading the Kraken to a 12-7-3 record with a .935 save percentage and a 1.996 GAA—numbers that would be worthy of Vezina consideration if maintained for a full season. However, these numbers dropped once Grubauer returned, and the Kraken faded from the playoff discussion. New head coach Dan Bylsma has seen Daccord’s success firsthand for two years at the AHL level, which means he will not hesitate to swap goalies if either netminder struggles.
Philipp Grubauer (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Joey Daccord (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The “Starter”
My projection is the Kraken will likely continue their 1A/1B goaltender strategy in the 2024-25 season, with Grubauer starting as the 1A and Daccord as the 1B. I project a 60/40 split in starts, but this will be fluid as the season progresses. Hopefully, the coaching staff can get both goalies operating at peak performance, giving the Kraken a stable duo for the entire season. Grubauer’s play at the end of last season is the main reason for getting the 1A role, but he will have to work and continue to perform to keep it. Competition here is a good thing.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
Three goalies are expected to compete for the AHL affiliate roster this year.
Ales Stezka: Signed a one-year, two-way deal.
Niklas Kokko: Drafted in the second round of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft.
Victor Ostman: Undrafted free agent signed from the University of Maine.
One of the younger goalies, Kokko or Ostman, will likely play in the ECHL with the Kansas City Mavericks. Kokko is transitioning from Liiga and will need time to adjust to the North American game. Ostman recently signed as a free agent out of college. My hunch is that Ostman will be assigned to the ECHL, Kokko will be the backup in Coachella Valley, and Stezka will be the starter. If the Kraken need to recall a goalie during the year, it will be interesting to see who they bring up. Stezka is waiver-eligible and could be claimed by another team, while Kokko and Ostman are exempt from waivers, though that shouldn’t prevent Stezka from getting a callup if he’s needed at the NHL level. All three goaltenders have zero NHL experience.
To be clear, goaltending was not the Kraken’s issue last year. With a solid blue line, if they can continue to improve in this area, they will be a very difficult team to score against. However, I expect some regression as the Kraken focus on increasing goal scoring, as the extra pressure to create offense could lead to defensive lapses. Bylsma has two quality goaltenders, but the depth chart ends there, so Seattle will also need good health from Daccord and Grubauer. Assuming both do remain healthy, competition between Grubauer and Daccord should help push each goaltender to get better.
I’m ready with the “Gruuuuuuu” and “Joey, Joey, Joey” chants when the Kraken hit the ice in a few weeks. If you have any comments or questions, please leave them below. You can find me on the X at @blaizg.
A few weeks ago, on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we discussed whether the 2024-25 Seattle Kraken are a playoff team. The conclusion was that we don’t know yet. Talent-wise, they are better than last season’s roster, and their goal scoring should improve enough to give them a shot at reaching the postseason.
However, for every new team entering the playoff picture in a season, another playoff team from the previous year must drop out. To get a better idea of which teams might miss the playoffs to make room, I decided to forecast the goal scoring of all Pacific Division teams using the same methodology I used when forecasting the Kraken. This way, we can identify some of the potential teams that might drop out of the playoffs next spring.
Forecasting from the bottom up
Let me say this up front: forecasting is inherently flawed. You are making predictions and assumptions about things with many uncontrollable variables. Nobody knows who might suffer a serious injury or have a breakout year in goal scoring. We simply use the information we have and try to apply it to future outcomes. It’s not perfect, and running it through a more complex statistical model doesn’t guarantee it is “less wrong.”
I will keep it very simple by using a bottom-up approach to forecast the goals scored by every notable player on a roster. For NHL players, I will examine the last three seasons of games played, adjusted goals scored, and average goals scored per game. Then, I will estimate the number of games each team will play and multiply that by their average goals per game to get a forecasted adjusted-goals total for each player. For rookies expected to play in the league, I had to take a more subjective approach by looking at how similar rookies have performed in their first season.
Additionally, the number of games forecasted for a player is 75 games. I am well aware that there will be plenty of players that will play over 75, but injuries are part of the game, and on average I expect the top guys to play 75 games in the season.
The individual player goals forecast will be the least accurate because performance can vary as circumstances change. However, on the aggregate, the totals should be more accurate. That’s my way of saying: please don’t contact me in April to tell me how my forecast for Yegor Sharangovich was way off. It probably will be—I know it.
(**Editor’s note: But if John nails it on Sharangovich’s projection, please do contact him to tell him how brilliant he is.)
Anaheim Ducks
I forecast the Anaheim Ducks to score 231 adjusted goals in 2024-25, which is 35 more than last season. The increase is driven by rookie additions and full seasons from Trevor Zegras and Leo Carlsson. I’m assuming rookies Sam Colangelo (eight goals) and Cutter Gauthier (10 goals) will play 55 games, which might be optimistic in terms of both games played and goal scoring. Zegras only played in 31 games last season after suffering a broken leg, so that might be a bit high as well. He did play 75 and 81 games in the seasons prior to 2023-24, so he’s certainly capable of playing a full season without injury.
Defensively, it’s hard to forecast Anaheim’s deployments next season. The Ducks have shown a cautious approach to integrating players into the NHL, often scratching rookies to avoid overwhelming them in the first season. I assume Olen Zellweger will get more NHL playing time, but at whose expense? Jackson LaCombe and Urho Vaakanainen appear to be the most likely candidates to see a reduction in games, but neither contributes significantly to goal scoring.
Sniff test: I don’t think anyone is expecting much from the Ducks this coming season, so this goal forecast seems a little high. I can’t objectively find a reason to lower the forecast, so for now, I’ll keep it as is.
Calgary Flames
The Flames’ scoring projections are in line with their numbers from last year. They lost several pending free agents at the trade deadline and traded Andrew Mangiapane this offseason. Some of the lost goal scoring will be offset by a full season of Andrei Kuzmenko, who they acquired at the trade deadline, and the signing of Anthony Mantha in free agency. Additionally, Connor Zary looks to build upon his solid rookie season last year. The Flames’ first-round pick from 2021, Matthew Coronato, should also stick with the team this season.
Sniff test: This feels about right, but you wonder how much the losses of defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev will impact the rest of the team’s goal scoring. The Flames averaged 3.13 goals per game before Hanifin was traded on March 6 and scored 2.95 goals per game after the trade. Perhaps more telling about the state of the Flames is that they allowed 3.07 goals against per game before the Hanifin trade and 3.81 goals against per game after.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers didn’t have a problem scoring goals last season, with 280 adjusted goals—the most in the Pacific Division. This offseason, they added even more scoring with the acquisitions of Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, and Victor Arvidsson. These additions contributed 70 goals to their forecast. The losses of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg will have minimal impact on overall goal production next season.
Sniff test: This team is going to score a ton next season, but I think this forecast might be a bit too optimistic. A forecast of 315 adjusted goals is 18 more than the top team in the league (Toronto) had last season.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings lost a few goal-scoring pieces this offseason through free agency, including Viktor Arvidsson, Blake Lizotte, and Matt Roy. They also traded Carl Grundstrom to San Jose and sent the much-maligned Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Washington Capitals for Darcy Kuemper. None of those players are irreplaceable, but the sum of those departures amounts to 40 non-empty-net goals. They backfilled those losses with Tanner Jeannot and Warren Foegele, who collectively forecast at 26 adjusted goals next season. For the Kings to make up the difference, they’ll need young players like Quinton Byfield and Alexis Laferriere to take another step.
Sniff test: This forecast feels about right, but some of the young guys could break out with the additional opportunities provided by the departures. Additionally, Byfield is probably at least a 20-goal scorer next season, but Phillip Danault might be slowing down a bit. Either way, the Kings could be one of the vulnerable teams to lose their playoff spot from last season.
San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks scored the second-fewest adjusted goals in the league with 176 last season. Two of their top goal scorers, Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair, were traded at the deadline. In the offseason, they added Tyler Toffoli, Barclay Goodrow, and former Kraken Alex Wennberg, but they need more than that if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The future looks bright for the Sharks with the drafting and signing of Macklin Celebrini and the signing of fourth overall forward Will Smith this offseason. They also appear to have a good young forward in William Eklund, and Thomas Bordeleau might have a chance to establish himself as an everyday NHLer. Oh, and they just traded for stud goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov.
They’re on the right path, but I only expect them to be slightly more competitive than last year, which wasn’t very competitive at all.
Sniff test: This seems accurate. The Sharks have a lot of youth on the roster but are very thin on experience, which should be a challenge for them this season.
Seattle Kraken
My Seattle Kraken forecast was posted separately a few weeks ago—check it out here. The increase in adjusted goal scoring is attributable to the free-agent signings of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, as well as the expected positive regression to the mean in goal scoring after a disappointing 2023-24 season in that category.
Sniff test: As I mentioned before, on paper, the team is better this season, but we don’t expect them to reach the same level of goal scoring as in the 2022-23 season. This feels about right.
Vancouver Canucks
The forecast for the Canucks is a drop of 16 adjusted goals from last season. The decline is primarily driven by a projected decrease in goal production from J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, who both had career highs in goals last season. The Canucks did add Jake DeBrusk in the offseason, which will help replace the goals lost with Andrei Kuzmenko (trade deadline) and Sam Lafferty (free agency). Assuming their goaltending remains stable, the Canucks look formidable again.
Sniff test: Last season, the Canucks had one of the highest shooting percentages in the league, so even Canucks fans might expect a bit of a regression. Even with a 16-goal drop next season, the Canucks are still a playoff team, and that seems accurate.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forecasting Vegas is challenging. They saw several departures this offseason, including 42-goal scorer Jonathan Marchessault, who signed in Nashville, and 16-goal scorer Chandler Stephenson, who signed with Seattle. Offsetting those departures, they acquired Alexander Holtz from New Jersey and signed Victor Olofsson in free agency. Holtz is an up-and-comer who could thrive with more opportunities in Vegas, while Olofsson is just two seasons removed from a 28-goal season in Buffalo. Additionally, if they stay healthy, the Golden Knights should have full seasons from Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone. My forecast estimates 60 and 50 games, respectively, for those two players given their injury history.
Sniff test: It seems like every season we expect the Golden Knights to drop in the standings, but they continue to prove us wrong. They seem like the most likely team to drop out of the playoffs, but there is still a lot of high-end talent on this team.
Summary
This is what it looks like when we put all the Pacific Division teams together.
I know what you’re thinking—how convenient that a writer (and unabashed fan) covering the Seattle Kraken predicts the Kraken will see the biggest increase in goals next season. It’s more than fair to be skeptical—I’m a bit skeptical myself. I did use the same methodology for all teams, but my intimate knowledge of the Kraken could have inadvertently impacted my approach. If nothing else, this was a good primer for the upcoming season, highlighting the roster changes in the Pacific Division and how those changes might play out.
What are your thoughts? Are there any blatant errors in the assumptions?
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The conversation surrounding the Seattle Kraken captaincy is one I’ve largely avoided over the past couple of seasons. Some fans seem to care about it a lot, but I generally haven’t involved myself for a couple of reasons.
The first reason I haven’t engaged too often in this debate is that I don’t think the success of the team hinges on having a captain or not (though some in the Twittersphere seem to think it’s the reason the Kraken struggled last season). Since Seattle named Mark Giordano captain and then dealt him at the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline after less than a season wearing the “C,” things have been going just fine with the so-called “leadership group” approach. Yes, the team took a step back last season, but remember, there was no captain in place when the Kraken were one goal shy of the Western Conference Finals in 2022-23.
The second reason I haven’t gotten too involved in these conversations is that I haven’t felt the ideal candidate exists in the organization. I still feel this way.
But…
The winds do seem to be shifting toward Seattle naming one of its players captain for the upcoming season and beyond.
Will that player be the perfect fit, one who can lead now and for many years to come? No. Still, the undertones from general manager Ron Francis’s end-of-season press availability seemed to indicate that the franchise is leaning toward electing a new leader.
If that’s the case, then the time is nigh for me to also get on board and join the Kraken captain conversation.
Defining the ideal captain
When I think of an ideal NHL captain, I imagine a player who earns the title relatively early in his career by already being a top player on the team and demonstrating natural leadership qualities both on and off the ice. That player can still have plenty to learn about being a captain and being an NHLer, but it should be somebody who is a clear cornerstone and who figures to be the face of the franchise for many years to come.
Is Matty that guy?
Matty Beniers ticks some of those boxes, including the piece about “many years to come” after he signed a seven-year deal with the team on Tuesday. But I don’t think he’s ready just yet. The Kraken do not feel like they are “Matty’s team” at this point.
I have a theory that part of why Seattle has been dragging its feet on naming a captain is because somebody in the organization believes Beniers will eventually be the guy and wants to hold off on giving it to anybody until he’s ready. But with the tone shifting toward the team wanting a captain, the patience may be waning just enough that a shorter-term solution could be becoming palatable.
Another thing to think about is how Shane Wright could factor into the leadership conversation down the road. I spoke with him earlier this summer, and he told me he didn’t view himself as a leader of the Coachella Valley Firebirds last season, and instead heaped the praise for the team’s success onto its veterans. But if you watched that team play, it did feel like “Shane’s team.” Could the Kraken become “Shane’s team” in a couple of years?
The shorter-term solution
If Beniers isn’t ready to take the captaincy, then Wright certainly isn’t, but I do think either of those players could be considered in a couple of years. The obvious solution is to name one of the veterans on the team as captain, with the expectation that one of those younger guys takes the torch when said veteran exits.
To me, the clear-cut choice is Jordan Eberle. At 34 years old and with two more years under contract, his timeline for how much longer he’ll be in the organization feels just long enough. Give Beniers (or perhaps Wright) a little more time to develop his game and quietly move into more of a leadership role without the pressure of being “the guy.” Then once Eberle makes his probable departure after the 2025-26 season, Matty takes the infinite wisdom he’s gathered from living under Eberle’s wing for four seasons and runs with it.
Eberle is a true pro
When the Kraken took Eberle from the New York Islanders in the Expansion Draft, I knew Seattle was getting a well-known, skilled veteran. I did not know how polished he was off the ice in terms of speaking with the media and handling difficult situations. Every time he speaks, he gives some little nugget of information that reminds you he has seen and been through every situation the sport can throw at a player.
There’s no question that younger players on the team look up to Eberle, and I can think of no better fit to wear the “C” short-term.
Other candidates
If I had written this article a year ago, I may have given the nod to Yanni Gourde. The smiling pest is another obvious leader on the team, and some folks in the Kraken sphere see him as the heart and soul of the club. But, I fear Yanni’s time with the team is nearing its end, and depending on how things go for him this season, this may be his last lap in deep-sea blue. Handing him the “C” now does not make sense to me.
Another option that was mentioned by John Barr on last week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast is Adam Larsson. I agree there’s some level of fit there, and the guys on the team clearly love Larsson. He quietly goes about his business and leads by example, but he’s also secretly one of the funniest guys in the locker room and has endeared himself to his teammates.
There are two challenges with naming Larsson the short-term captain, though. First, the Big Cat—like Gourde—is also entering the last year of his contract with Seattle. While I could see Larsson sticking around beyond this season, I’m feeling like the Kraken may want to have this captaincy decision made before the season starts. I highly doubt they will give it to a guy on an expiring contract again, because look how that played out with Giordano.
The other thing to consider with Larsson is that he isn’t a guy that gets trotted out to talk to media after a bad loss. That’s not a primary responsibility of the captaincy, but it is something the captain does. Larsson is very quiet and reserved when speaking to the media, whereas Eberle has been the guy the team has leaned on for three seasons when it has dealt with painful losing streaks and lopsided defeats, and he always knows just what to say.
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I’m afraid to ask because this is an oddly divisive conversation, but what do you think, folks? Are the Kraken ready for a captain? If so, who should it be?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The biggest lingering question facing the Seattle Kraken and general manager Ron Francis this offseason was answered Tuesday. Restricted free agent and 2023 Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers signed a new seven-year contract with the organization at an average annual value of $7.14 million.
“Matty has been a core part of our team since making his NHL debut, not only on the ice, but in his commitment to our community and our fans,” Francis said. “Signing Matty to a new contract was a top priority for our offseason, and we are excited to have it done. We’re looking forward to seeing Matty take the next steps as a player and watching him contribute to many more memorable moments for our franchise.”
Beniers, a 21-year-old, top-line center who was the first draft pick in franchise history at No. 2 overall in 2021, burst onto the NHL scene late in Seattle’s inaugural season when he scored three goals and added nine assists in 10 games after making the difficult jump straight from the NCAA. He followed that up with 24 goals and 33 assists in his first full season, earning him rookie-of-the-year honors and elevating expectations.
One could argue Beniers took a step back in 2023-24, when the league seemed to figure out how to defend him and when his teammates also struggled to produce for long swaths of the season. But even with extended scoring droughts and what was widely considered a disappointing campaign for the youngster, he still managed a respectable 15 goals and 22 assists and played a key role throughout.
The future remains bright for the Hingham, Mass., native, who has now solidified himself as one of the core members of the organization for the foreseeable future. The deal keeps Beniers in Seattle through the 2030-31 season and buys out two years of his unrestricted free agent eligibility.
No real drama, deal done
RFA’s generally don’t have much leverage, other than when things start to come down to the wire with training camp and the start of the season. The uneasiness of negotiations dragging out to a point where team activities are missed creates urgency on both sides but can corner a team into upping its offer. In this case, the start of training camp was beginning to creep up, but the deal got done with plenty of time to spare.
Francis had made no bones about his desire to sign Beniers long-term, and now he gets his guy.
Analysis
This is about where we expected Beniers to land with this contract. If he had matched his 2022-23 stats this past season, he likely could have gotten a higher AAV, but his 2023-24 performance simply did not warrant a significantly bigger number. It’s a fair deal for both sides at present, and the hope is that he continues to develop into a star player, which will turn it into a steal of deal for the Kraken in a couple years.
It’s hard to get a full salary cap picture right now, because it depends on how many extras the Kraken will want to keep around and who they keep after training camp. But, if we plug in John Hayden and Ryan Winterton as extra forwards and Josh Mahura as a seventh defenseman (obviously some big assumptions there, but that would fill out a 23-man roster), that puts Seattle about $1.5 million over the cap. So, there could still be a salary-shedding move or two coming.
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Seattle Kraken have been active this offseason, making a splash in free agency and shaking up the coaching staff. With the NHL preseason starting in just over a month, we wanted to go over what we expect to see from the Kraken under new bench boss, Dan Bylsma.
Coaching style
Bylsma’s approach to coaching stems from the relationships he is able to build. We often hear that he is well-prepared, direct, and clear in his messaging, and he creates a balance between being firm on what the player needs to do to succeed while keeping the atmosphere light and positive.
One comment we’ve heard on his coaching style is that his offense relies heavily on the stretch pass, where his players leave the defensive zone early and try to receive a long pass for an odd-man rush. This worked in Pittsburgh, where they had highly skilled players, but can the Kraken replicate that success? His time in Coachella Valley showed that he has updated his style to match the players on his team and adopted a similar system to what the Kraken were using under Dave Hakstol. So, perhaps his approach to systems in Seattle will be different to that of his time with the Penguins.
Buzz words
Dan Bylsma’s coaching style is all about a fast north-south transition game. (**Editor’s Note: That is a bit of an inside joke from one of the Sound Of Hockey Patreon Mailbag sessions.)
Thank you to Sound Of Hockey Patreon member Mike N. for submitting a question and triggering this article. Mike asked, “… what should we be looking for when the team takes the ice in preseason?” as well as some definitions for some buzz words around Bylsma’s coaching style. Let’s start with some definitions:
Transition game – How the team moves from defense to offense. Typically, speed and control contribute to a better transition game.
Fast – When mentioned in the same breath as coaching, this typically refers to the pace at which the team gets the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone.
North/South – North is the offensive zone and South is the defensive zone. It involves excelling in both zones and getting up and down the ice quickly. Our own Darren Brown wrote about systems and “playing fast” back in April.
Really, the above words can be used in any combination to describe what any team or coach is trying to do. If there are other buzz words causing confusion, feel free to comment below and we will try to define them.
Indicators of success for Bylsma
Preseason games have a few purposes: one of which is to practice and fine tune for the regular season, and another of which is to determine who makes the final Opening Night roster. And while personnel for NHL teams during preseason can vary dramatically from game to game, we should start to get a glimpse at Bylsma’s strategies during these games, as his players put systematic tweaks into practice. Here’s what we will be looking for in these games.
Dan Bylsma (Photo/Brian Liesse)
North/South
North (offense)
The No. 1 goal for the Kraken this season should be to increase scoring if they are to have any success. Seattle was 29th in the NHL in goals scored in 2023-24. This can be tracked simply by looking at the goals scored per game, but this does not take into account the quality of opponent. Another statistic to consider is high-danger shots. Seattle was also 29th in the NHL for high-danger shots at 252 during the 2023-24 season, per Moneypuck.com, which tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots.
For the eye test folks, you will want to watch if the Kraken are getting shots from between the face-off dots. Under Hakstol, the Kraken played a possession game and cycled the puck along the boards looking for an opening to get the puck into the high-danger areas. Many of their shots, though, ended up coming from the points when they struggled to get pucks to the middle. We do not expect the approach to change dramatically, but watch if the Kraken are able to get the puck off the boards more frequently.
Another big part of offensive success comes from the power play. New assistant coach Bob Woods will be in charge of running the power play with Jessica Campbell also providing guidance. The Kraken have seen improvement year-over-year with the power play, topping out at 20.7 percent last season. This ranked the Kraken in the middle of the NHL, but continued improvement will be welcomed. Seattle has upgraded personnel for this area as well with the additions of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, so perhaps these changes will give the team a boost with the manpower advantage.
Read more about the Kraken power play in an article by our own John Barr. Once again, it’s important to focus on where the shots are being taken; more shots from within the face-off dots will lead to more offensive success.
South (defense)
There is not much to change on the south end of the ice, as the Kraken were eighth best in the league in goals against with 232. Out of the top 10 teams in goals against, the Kraken were the only team to not make the postseason. With the addition of Montour and the expectation that Ryker Evans makes the Kraken full-time this year, it does seem to shift the mindset of the D corps to lean more offensive, so it will be interesting to see how Seattle’s play in its own end evolves.
Moneypuck.com also tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots against. The Seattle Kraken were No. 1 in the NHL for allowing the fewest high-danger shots against (239), second at medium-danger shots (577), and 19th at low-danger shots (2727). This highlights that under Hakstol, the Kraken would give teams shots from low-percentage areas but really protected the more dangerous areas. If the Kraken are to continue their defensive effectiveness, watch for shots against to continue coming from the perimeter and from farther away from the net.
Fast transition game (controlled zone entries versus dump and chase)
The first few years of Kraken hockey featured a primarily dump-and-chase style. The Kraken would shoot the puck deep into the offensive zone and then use a forecheck to control it. The jury is still out on whether this was Hakstol’s preferred way to gain the zone or the best he could do it with the players he was given. Hakstol’s approach was partly defensive as well, as the other team cannot score if the puck is in their defensive zone. Bylsma will face similar personnel challenges, as the Kraken still lack elite offensive punch.
There has been a lot of research on the benefits of controlled zone entries. Research by Eric Tulsky and Thibaud Chatel is a good place to start if you want some additional reading. To summarize, successful controlled zone entries lead to a two-fold increase in shots on goal compared to dump and chase. This is something else to keep in mind while watching the games to determine if the Kraken tend to carry the puck into the zone or use a dump-and-chase approach. This will continue to evolve into the regular season as other NHL teams finalize their rosters and tweak their defensive play.
Players to watch
There are many interesting players to watch during training camp and preseason. We’ve divided these players into three groups: new free agents, Coachella Valley Firebirds, and players returning to junior hockey.
Two players new to Coach Bylsma’s system are free-agent signings Stephenson and Montour. Both are expected to be key contributors on the Kraken’s top lines. Identifying their linemates and seeing how on-ice chemistry develops during preseason will be a crucial storyline to follow.
Joining a new team as a free agent can be a rocky road for some players, so getting off to a good start will be important for these two players, who will face plenty of expectations to produce right away.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
From the 2023-24 Firebirds roster, two players stand out: Shane Wright and Ryker Evans. They are widely expected to make the Kraken roster full-time this year. Evans played 36 games with the Kraken last year and 25 games with the Firebirds, and with how the roster is now shaped, the organization is clearly expecting him to be with the big club. It will be interesting to watch how these two slot into the lineup and whether they look like they can keep up with NHL-level talent during the course of a full season.
Beyond these two players, there is a group of players getting closer, but who we expect to play for Coachella Valley this year. This group will be eager to show how they have improved during Training Camp. While this is not an exhaustive list, these are players we will be monitoring closely in preseason.
Logan Morrison
Ryan Winterton
Lleyton Roed
Tucker Robertson
Jacob Melanson
Ville Ottavainen
Jani Nyman
Jagger Firkus
David Goyette
Ty Nelson
Watching how long these players stick around during camp can be an indicator of how well they are performing and how they are perceived by the Kraken. There is still at least a roster spot or two to be had, so while we don’t *expect* these players to make the team full-time, it can happen.
Look no further than Tye Kartye, who made the most of his opportunity during the 2022-23 playoffs and then continued to impress in training camp to secure his spot on the roster. Even if none of these players make the team out of camp, this is a great chance to get a glimpse of the Kraken’s future while they play against elevated talent. They also may be call-ups in the event of injuries.
Players returning to juniors
Some of the top prospects in the Kraken organization are 19 or younger and not eligible to play in the AHL. These players either have to make the Kraken full-time or be returned to the CHL.
Carson Rehkopf
Berkly Catton
Eduard Sale*
It is a long shot for Rehkopf or Catton to make the roster for the full season, but if they put on a strong showing in rookie/training camp and preseason, they could stick around for up to nine games in the regular season. After that point, their entry-level contracts are no longer slide-eligible, meaning playing more NHL games would burn the first year of their entry-level contracts. Watching how these players are fitting in and hanging with legitimate NHL players provides a preview of the future.
Sale has an asterisk next to his name because it is unclear where he will play this year. Since he was playing in the Czech Extraliga when Seattle drafted the right winger, he is eligible to play for the Firebirds this year. At 19, he is also eligible to play in the CHL. The case for him playing with the Firebirds is strengthened by his 12 points in 10 games during the OHL playoffs, but he still hasn’t hit the level of production expected of a first-round draft pick. Additionally, Rehkopf was traded to the Brampton Steelheads, so Sale no longer has a fellow Kraken prospect with him in Kitchener.
While this is just speculation, with 38 points in 49 games in the CHL, returning to the Kitchener Rangers feels like the most likely destination for Sale.
#OHLRangers have completed a trade with the Brampton Steelheads
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This 2024-25 season will be the beginning of the end of an era for the Seattle Kraken. Many of the team’s original players have already come and gone from the roster, but a group of core veterans that has stuck around through Seattle’s first three seasons in existence will begin filtering out next summer.
Roster stalwarts like Yanni Gourde, Adam Larsson, Will Borgen, and Brandon Tanev are all set to become unrestricted free agents after the coming season, and the deals for Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eeli Tolvanen, and Jamie Oleksiak will end following 2025-26.
Meanwhile, a strong and growing prospect pool has produced several players that are knocking on the NHL door, and more could be ready for NHL gigs by the time some of the aforementioned veterans exit the fold.
So, while the 2024-25 Kraken will look fairly similar to the 2023-24 version, except with Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour providing upgrades over the likes of Kailer Yamamoto and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, the group will look very different next season.
With all this in mind, we decided to look into our crystal ball and make some way-too-early predictions on which of the players mentioned above will remain with the Kraken beyond the next two seasons.
Kraken UFA’s in 2024-25
Yanni Gourde
Yanni has been a fan favorite since being selected in the Expansion Draft from the Tampa Bay Lightning. A leader on the team, his willingness to go into the dirty areas of the ice and muck it up with players twice his size, smiling through getting punched in the face, has endeared him to the Seattle faithful.
But Gourde is no spring chicken at 32 years old. The key to his game is speed and energy, and while we still saw that last season, we also saw a decrease in his offensive production from 48 points (14-34—48) in 2022-23 to 33 points (11-22—33) in 2023-24.
With Matty Beniers and now Stephenson set to take the two top-six center spots, and Shane Wright potentially jumping into the third spot, that likely pushes Gourde down to a full-time 4C role, which would surely limit his ice time.
As much as it pains us to say this, we think this will be Gourde’s last season in deep sea blue.
Adam Larsson
The Big Cat has been an integral part of this team for three seasons, anchoring the top defense pair alongside the more offensively gifted Vince Dunn. Like Gourde, Larsson too is getting up there in years at 31, but his game and role are quite different than those of Yanni.
Larsson plays a stay-at-home style that serves well on the top pair now but could also bring value on lower defense pairings, even if the Swede loses a step or two over the coming seasons.
We also get the sense that Larsson loves Seattle. We could see him signing for a couple more years after this one.
Will Borgen
Borgen was a sneaky strong pick in the Expansion Draft. Chosen from the Buffalo Sabres, he was a relative unknown when his name was announced at Gasworks Park in July, 2021. After being mired in the pressbox during the Kraken’s inaugural season, Borgen has blossomed as a reliable, right-shot, two-way defenseman that brings an edge to his game.
He has good speed and instincts and is a quintessential middle- or bottom-pair type of player. We would love to see him take another step offensively this season, but even if he doesn’t, Borgen brings value.
At 27 years old, if he wants to return, we think the Kraken would want him back, though next summer will be the time for Borgen to cash in on the open market. Even so, we will predict a three-year extension for Borgen this season.
Brandon Tanev
Tanev is a player that the Kraken seem to value for his tenacious forechecking, energy, and penalty killing. But assuming good health, he is destined for the fourth line next season at a big $3.5 million cap hit.
We’re somewhat surprised Tanev hasn’t been traded already, being that he is entering the last year of his deal, but unless he’s willing to take a big pay cut and/or starts producing offense, we just can’t see him sticking with Seattle after this season.
Joey Daccord
Though he doesn’t quite fit in the “roster stalwart” category with the others (2023-24 was his first season as a full-time NHLer), Joey Daccord is also set to become a UFA after 2024-25 and deserves mentioning.
Daccord was perhaps the biggest bright spot in an otherwise frustrating 2023-24 season, and if he builds on that next season, he could approach star territory. If that does happen, and if he wants to stay with Seattle beyond his expiring contract, then he will be due for a monster raise from his current $1.5 million AAV.
Remember, Philipp Grubauer is still under contract for three more years at $5.9 million per, so if Daccord gets to a point where he will command big dollars, and Seattle wants him back, then Grubauer may have to go.
We will predict that Daccord stays after this season, and Grubauer exits, either through trade (unlikely) or buyout (more likely).
Kraken UFA’s in 2025-26
Jaden Schwartz
Schwartz has flown under the radar for much of his tenure with the Kraken, but he does a better job at going hard to the blue paint than any other forward on the team. So, he’s an important piece for the current roster.
But Schwartz has dealt with a lot of health issues the last few years that have pushed him out of the lineup for several extended periods. When this contract ends, Schwartz will be 34 years old.
We would not expect Schwartz back with the Kraken beyond 2025-26.
Jordan Eberle
While Schwartz has flown under the radar, Eberle has been a heart-and-soul leader of the team since Day 1 and showed his loyalty to the organization by agreeing to a two-year extension on the eve of last season’s NHL Trade Deadline.
But also like Schwartz, Eberle is getting long in the tooth and will likely slow down more than he already has over these next two campaigns.
We would not expect Eberle to remain a Kraken beyond 2025-26.
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Bjorkstrand is a different story than Schwartz and Eberle. A splashy trade acquisition from the Blue Jackets two offseasons ago, the Maestro has been a key cog for Seattle and has plenty of tread left on his tires at 29 years old.
Oddly, we still feel like he hasn’t hit his full potential with the Kraken. Perhaps the offensive upgrades made to the team this summer could help unlock more production from Bjorkstrand moving forward, but either way, we think the Kraken value his game.
We will predict that Bjorkstrand sticks around beyond 2025-26.
Eeli Tolvanen
Tolvanen’s career was in a tough spot when he arrived in Seattle and saw things turn around under former head coach Dave Hakstol. Given plenty of opportunity and good linemates, Tolvanen flourished and earned himself a two-year extension earlier this summer.
Notably, the length of that new deal does not buy out any of Tolvanen’s UFA years. While we don’t know which (if either) side pushed for that two-year term, it does feel like the heavy-shooting Finnish winger is setting himself up to test the open market two summers from now.
We will predict that Tolvanen performs well over the next two seasons but exits as a free agent after 2025-26.
Jamie Oleksiak
And finally, the Big Rig. We do believe Oleksiak is underrated. For a player his size, we know fans want to see him play more physically, but his reach and ability to clear the front of the net make him an important defender and a big reason why Seattle’s blue line was a strength last season.
The Kraken don’t have a ton in their prospect pool on the backend, but we know the organization thinks highly of Ville Ottavainen. Ottavainen has a similar profile to Oleksiak and could be two seasons away from being ready to take over that big, stay-at-home role at the NHL level (and for much cheaper than Oleksiak).
With Ottavainen coming and Oleksiak currently 31 years old, we will predict that Oleksiak does not return after his current contract.
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What say you, folks? Who stays and who goes over the next couple years?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Once the Seattle Kraken roster settles in each offseason, I like to project the team’s playoff chances by forecasting its goal scoring. You can review the last two offseason forecasts here: 2022-23 and 2023-24. I will eventually integrate the scoring forecast with playoff projections in an article closer to the beginning of the season.
The forecast includes adjusted goals for each player on the projected Kraken roster. I define adjusted goals as goals scored minus empty-net goals. Based on prior analysis, teams with an adjusted goal differential of plus one to plus five make the playoffs over 50 percent of the time. Adjusted goals against is an important part of that equation, but for the purpose of this article, I will only look at adjusted goals for.
Reviewing last year’s goal forecast
There is no denying that goal scoring was a tremendous challenge for the Seattle Kraken during the 2023-24 season. The Kraken’s adjusted goals for dropped by 68 season over season, which was a 25 percent decrease from 2022-23. We all expected a bit of a regression after a sky-high shooting percentage in 2022-23, but this was much more than anyone could have anticipated.
With a variance of 50 goals, it’s clear that my projection missed the mark. There is always expected variance from player to player, but those should balance out. A disappointing season for one player should be offset by a career season for another player. There was no such offset last season, and most players came in under their forecasted goal numbers.
Forecasting models are never that accurate, but the objective is to get as close as possible to the actual results. This model was not very close, so it’s worth evaluating what adjustments can be made for the 2024-25 forecast.
Last season’s model was based on a simple equation: player goals per game from the prior season multiplied by the expected games played in the forecasted season. I also made a few subjective adjustments, but for the most part, it was that simple. In retrospect, basing the rate of goal projection on one season is too narrow of a view. The model also has a challenge when systematic strategy changes are made by the team. The Kraken scored 75 fewer goals last season than they did during the 2022-23 season, but they also allowed 52 fewer goals.
For the 2024-25 Kraken season forecast, I will broaden the scope to include the prior three seasons.
Departures and arrivals for the 2024-25 Season
As of now, the Kraken have had five player departures this offseason, three forwards and two defensemen. None of the five were known for their goal scoring, but collectively, they contributed 34 adjusted goals in 2023-24.
The Kraken made a big splash in free agency with the additions of forward Chandler Stephenson and offensive-minded defenseman Brandon Montour.
The Kraken also added some depth with Ben Meyers, Joshua Mahura, and Maxime Lajoie, but their contributions to the team will be limited barring any injuries. Additionally, we anticipate Shane Wright and Ryker Evans becoming mainstays in the Kraken lineup next season.
Although Stephenson and Montour might not be projected to replace the 34 goals that departed the team last season, their real value lies in their ability to create additional scoring opportunities for other players. This forecast model will not adjust for this expected impact on other players.
Scoring forecast for the forwards
As mentioned above, I’ve taken the last three seasons of games played and adjusted goals scored to project for the 2024-25 season. The games played forecast is somewhat subjective, but I also looked at the average number played by each player to estimate how many they will skate in this coming season.
The maximum number of forecasted games for the 2024-25 season is 75. I am aware that several players averaged more than 75 games per season, but this was a conservative way of predicting for 2024-25.
A couple of callouts: Shane Wright’s projected rate based on his 16 NHL games to date suggests 20-plus goals for the 2024-25 season. However, I felt that forecasting a player’s contributions based on just 16 games was not a large enough sample size, so I adjusted his forecast down to 15 goals.
There are 984 total forward games played in each season (12 forwards times 82 games), so I filled the “other” category with the remaining games. That seems a little high for this category, but again, I felt it was a good conservative estimate. For the adjusted goals per game rate, I estimated 0.10 goals scored per game. The rate for this category last year was 0.114 per game, but that calculation included Tomas Tatar, who scored at a rate of 0.186 per game. The adjustment down was to be more conservative.
If I wanted to be even more cautious in my approach, I would probably change the projections for Jordan Eberle and Yanni Gourde to lower rates of adjusted goals in 2024-25 because both have had three years of declining adjusted goals scored per game. It could be wishful thinking, but I feel this potential decline will be offset by how Stephenson and Montour create more goal-scoring opportunities for other players on the ice.
Scoring forecast for the defensemen
Now that we have the methodology, forecasting the defensive group is straightforward.
The only thing I might add to this forecast is that it might be unrealistic to expect Montour to contribute 11.2 goals this coming season, his first with a new team. To counterbalance Montour’s optimistic forecast, projecting the “other” category to contribute zero goals over 42 games is a conservative approach.
Putting it together
Adding the forecast for the forwards and defensemen gives the Kraken 242 forecasted adjusted goals for this coming season. That feels high based on how last season went, but that could be the human behavior of recency bias creeping into my head. Regardless of what you think of the signings of Stephenson and Montour, both should make the Kraken better offensively this coming season.
Other considerations
The other big moves this offseason were behind the bench, with Dan Bylsma taking over the head coaching job and Jessica Campbell and Bob Woods being hired as assistant coaches. Collectively, the new staff will have a massive impact on how this team plays, but building that impact into a forecast model is impossible.
The Kraken power play will also influence goal scoring one way or another. The additions of Stephenson and Montour should help improve the power play, but measuring that impact is a bit of a challenge considering both previously played for teams that have been close to the best in the league over the last two seasons. The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers had more talent on their respective rosters than the Kraken will have this coming season, so past stats for Montour and Stephenson may not equate to what they will produce in Seattle.
Conclusion
My forecast for the Seattle Kraken’s 2024-25 season projects 242 adjusted goals, a notable increase from last season’s disappointing performance. While this estimate may seem optimistic, the additions of Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour, along with the potential emergence of Shane Wright and Ryker Evans, provide reasons for hope.
However, it’s essential to acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding coaching changes, power play performance, and potential variances in player production. As the season approaches, I’ll integrate this goal-scoring forecast with adjusted-goals-against projections to provide a comprehensive playoff prediction. For now, Kraken fans can cautiously look forward to an improved offensive output in the upcoming season.
What are your thoughts? Is my forecast too optimistic, or does it sound about right? If you would change it, how would you do it?
