As the calendar turns to August, we will be shifting our focus full time to the upcoming NHL season soon. Before we do that, though, at least one piece of offseason business remains–a recap of the Seattle Kraken’s 2023 NHL Draft.
How do the Kraken draft picks stack up on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board? How have public draft experts graded Seattle’s performance? What do we know about the newest Kraken players? Let’s dive in.
For the second year in a row, the Kraken accumulated a deep and talented class
Last year, at the 2022 NHL Draft, the Seattle Kraken leveraged extra draft picks in the second round to acquire five of the top 50 players on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board.
Remarkably, history repeated itself at the 2023 NHL Draft. Again the Kraken were armed with extra second-round picks from the team’s trades at the 2022 NHL trade deadline, and again the team came away with five top-50 players on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Seattle’s five top-50 players tied San Jose for most in the NHL. No other team obtained more than three.
The key distinction this year was that Seattle’s own draft picks were those of a playoff team, rather than those of a 60-point team. Last year, the Kraken were able to grab the No. 1 overall player on the Big Board, Shane Wright, but did not have a similar opportunity to draft any true top-tier amateur players this year.
That said, the Kraken did take (at least) two high-upside swings during the 2023 draft on players that have the potential to provide top-tier production. Seattle’s first-round pick Eduard Sale was frequently projected as a top-10 draft choice after his draft-minus-one year in which he posted 99 points in 44 games in Czechia’s top junior league. His season was so good, he made the rare leap to Extraliga, Czechia’s top pro league, as a 17-year-old. He played a limited role, though, and met adversity playing against veterans in one of the best professional leagues in the world. Still lauded as one of the most skilled playmakers and scorers in the draft, the Kraken could have a top-tier talent if Sale can find his offensive footing again.
Likewise, the Kraken took a big swing at offensive talent in the later stages of the second round in the form of Tri-City defenseman Lukas Dragicevic. Setting aside high school players, Dragicevic scored more total points (79) and on a per-game basis (1.07 points per game) than any other right-handed defenseman in the 2023 NHL Draft. Some scouts question whether Dragicevic can be good enough defensively, but his potential as a blueliner proficient in the transition game and on the power play is significant.
Overall, Seattle consistently found value with their draft picks–at least in the eyes of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. In total, only 87 players were selected at a draft position equal to or later than the player’s rank on the Big Board. In other words, these are the choices that the Big Board would deem a “value” pick. The Kraken selected seven of those 87 players, most in the league. No other team selected more than five. Columbus, Las Vegas, San Jose, and Philadelphia each accomplished that feat.
Public draft analysts ranked the Kraken draft class highly
For these reasons, it is not surprising that public draft analysts (upon whose work the Big Board was built) were generally complimentary of Seattle’s draft, frequently referencing it among the strongest draft classes assembled:
Seattle’s draft picks bring a wide array of talents
Pick No. 20, Eduard Sale, LW, HC Kometa Brno (Czechia)
Height: 73 inches | Weight: 168 lbs | Shot: L | 7 goals, 7 assists, 49 games played
Big Board: 17 | Highest rank: 7 (Craig Button)
Analytics Rank: 21 | NHLe Rank: 25
Scouting perspective: “[Sale is] a smooth skater who is noticeable in transition for both his ability to weave up ice and facilitate and also his ability to create breakaways for himself and beat goalies one-on-one. He’s got superb vision and ranks among the best in the class at dissecting coverage as a passer. I love him on the half-wall/point on the PP with his ability to hit east-west seams (he just seems to see every lane and opening). He can slow it down and pick things apart or hurry up his passes through holes. He has shown a knack for making big plays at big moments and can really shoot it, whether with a quick-release wrister or his dangerous one-timer.” – Scott Wheeler
Pick analysis: Eduard Sale came to Seattle Kraken Development Camp and showed rust early. He was nondescript for long stretches. But by the end of the three-on-three scrimmage on the last day, he was starting to show the skill that made him a top prospect coming into the 2022-23 season. In one sequence he showed high-end handling and scoring touch, roofing a backhander. Sale is likely to come to Kraken camp in the fall and then spend the season with the Barrie Colts in the OHL. How he progresses this year is of paramount importance to Seattle’s prospect pipeline.
Height: 73 inches | Weight: 194 lbs | Shot: L | 32 goals, 33 assists, 77 games played
Big Board: 48 | Highest rank: 36 (Peter Baracchini)
Analytics Rank: 39 | NHLe Rank: 78
Scouting perspective: “Rehkopf is [a] bigger build with an interesting blend of size and skill. He has a pro level frame and shot already. . . . He has also shown the ability to play both down the middle and on the wing. . . . If able to develop his skill set effectively, there could be a . . . middle-six forward that can dominate middle ice. He also has the length and active stick to provide value on a penalty kill unit. There are concerns about Rehkopf’s engagement with the play off the puck, as well as his commitment to physical play . . . .” – Ben Jordan
Pick analysis: Rehkopf has no shortage of physical tools, and his skills impressed during portions of Seattle Kraken Development Camp too when he displayed a heavy and accurate shot. Rehkopf’s counting stats during his 2022-23 season in the OHL were good but not elite, and scouting reports cast doubt on his off-puck engagement and defensive-zone play. On the other hand, Seattle Director of Amateur Scouting Robert Kron complimented Rehkopf’s two-way game when describing the pick. Rehkopf feels like a player with volatility in his projection, but with several different avenues to earn professional playing time.
Height: 72 inches | Weight: 163 lbs | Shot: L | 4 goals, 3 assists, 41 games played
Big Board: 38 | Highest rank: 23 (Dobber Prospects)
Analytics Rank: 52 | NHLe Rank: 143
Scouting perspective: “Molgaard’s excellent defensive work has resulted in him playing most of his year in the prestigious SHL mainly as a role player. Molgaard has an . . . exceptional defensive toolset and a composed mindset lets him disrupt his opponents frequently and successfully. Offensively, he has understandably struggled at the SHL level given his role but his nippy skating has been a danger in the lower levels. At international and the U-20 level Molgaard proved he can ‘the guy’ with driving offense with great vision for teammates and a well-rounded skillset.” – Joe Maciag
Pick analysis: Molgaard exudes maturity. This manifests on the ice, where he displayed a responsible two-way game in the SHL as a 17-year-old. It also shows off the ice in his dealings with the media, including his interview with Sound Of Hockey’s own John Barr and Darren Brown. The question with Molgaard is whether he can score enough to play at the NHL level. Further developing his offensive skill level is key to his future.
Height: 74 inches | Weight: 181 lbs | Shot: R | 15 goals, 64 assists, 74 games played
Big Board: 33 | Highest rank: 20 (McKeen’s Hockey)
Analytics Rank: 19 | NHLe Rank: 8
Scouting perspective: “Lukas Dragicevic is the best offensive defenceman in this year’s draft. No one combines his level of puck skills, vision, and activation. For both of his WHL seasons, Tri-City’s offence has flowed through him. He’s the initiator, connector, and often the finisher. And he led the team in ice time both seasons – no small feat for a player who switched from forward just a few years ago. . . . Full stop, the defence must improve to get the green light in the NHL.” – Elite Prospects
Pick analysis: Before the draft, I mentioned Dragicevic as a first-round candidate based on his rare point production from the blue line. Match that production with a right-handed shot, six-foot-two frame, and skating talent (even if it is still in need of refinement), and you have a defenseman with almost every quality a player development program could ask for. His movements and reads on defense, particularly defending the rush, will need to improve, but it’s not a long shot to think those improvements will come since he has only played as a blueliner for three years.
Height: 73 inches | Weight: 181 lbs | Shot: L | 6 goals, 36 assists, 69 games played
Big Board: 50 | Highest rank: 28 (Dobber Prospects)
Analytics Rank: 50 | NHLe Rank: 55
Scouting perspective: “Kelowna asked [Caden Price] to take on a lot of responsibility as the leader of their blue line, but the Rockets never fully clicked as a team, and when things started to go sideways, he didn’t have a lot of support underneath him. He didn’t look ready or comfortable in the role he had, so the challenge for scouts now is trying to determine what sort of role you can project for him as a future NHLer. The most appealing thing about his game is that there really isn’t anything unappealing about it. He’s well-rounded and highly versatile. With good smarts, a relatively full toolbox and a can-do attitude he can play the game any way you want him to, and every coach loves having guys like that around.” – McKeen’s Hockey
Pick analysis: Price is another defenseman long on both physical tools and skills. He has not put it all together into game production to the same extent as Lukas Dragicevic, but his advocates in the scouting community suggest he can still do it and ascend into that upper echelon. Others look at Price and scratch their heads as to why he didn’t produce more offensively and defensively. This coming season will be crucial for Price as he will likely have a featured role on the Kelowna blue line. Can he shore up his defensive game and get closer to a point per game on the offensive side? He’ll have the opportunity.
Pick No. 116, Andrei Loshko, C, Chicoutimi Saguenéens (QMJHL)
Height: 73 inches | Weight: 170 lbs | Shot: L | 22 goals, 49 assists, 72 games played
Big Board: 122 | Highest rank: 89 (FC Hockey)
Analytics Rank: 98 | NHLe Rank: 113
Scouting perspective: “Loshko plays like a veteran. He’s the player the coach sends over the boards to counter the opposition’s top line, to play on the penalty kill, and protect leads. His mature game impressed our staff in every single viewing. He applied his team’s system well and offered timely passing options to teammates in transition. ‘He reloads defensively, anticipates the next play of opponents, supports teammates on breakouts, and knows his next play in possession,’ Elite Prospects lead scout David St-Louis wrote in a November report. ‘The hockey sense looks above-average — offensively, too. He’s really intriguing.’” – Elite Prospects
Pick analysis: Scouts credit Loshko for playing a simple but effective two-way game. He is able to slow down the chaos around him and make the right play more often than not. Whether he can keep up with professional pace and score enough in the NHL is an open question, but most scouts that got a close look at him came away raving about him and describing a potential fourth-line checking forward.
Andrei Loshko shoots the puck at Kraken Development Camp (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Height: 74 inches | Weight: 181 lbs | Shot: R | 8 goals, 18 assists, 72 games played
Big Board: 167 | Highest rank: 92 (McKeen’s Hockey)
Analytics Rank: 146 | NHLe Rank: 240
Scouting perspective: “[Hammell’s] game so far has certainly leaned much further on the defensive side than the offensive one. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however, as leaning into that specialty might be the best application of his tools. He’s strong and sturdy in his lower body and combines that with clean footwork and a long reach to be a real pain in the neck to get through or behind in one-on-one situations. He’s tough and physical, whether that’s by driving players into the boards hard and pinning them there or battling them tooth and nail in front of his goalie, and he can play this way without getting whistled for unnecessary penalties. He’s going to get a lot of opportunities over the next two seasons to diversify and expand his game through more encouraged usage as a puck-mover and offense creator, but maybe temper expectations about how successful that will go.” – McKeen’s Hockey
Pick analysis: This pick has an interesting blend of “floor” and “ceiling.” On the one hand, Hammell is a six-foot-two, physical, righty defenseman, with solid athleticism whom scouts believe should be able to play representative defense. Those traits carry a lot of value in the NHL and could earn him professional minutes. On the other hand, Hammell was believed to be an exciting offensive prospect coming into the 2022-23 season, and according to scouts, he did show solid passing and transition game skills, even if the point totals lagged. Hammell will play this coming season in Everett, so Seattle will be able to monitor his development closely.
Pick No. 168, Visa Vedenpaa, G, Kärpät U20 (U20 SM-sarja)
Height: 74 inches | Weight: 170 lbs | Catches: L | .886 save percentage, 31 games played
Big Board: 222
Analytics Rank: 1937 | NHLe Rank: 1017
Scouting perspective: “Visa Vedenpää is an exciting young goaltender in the Kärpät development system in Finland. . . . Playing with good instincts, he reacts well to broken or quick- developing plays. His strong technical base puts him into position to do that, because he stays within the frame and is rarely caught out of his net. He plays with moderate depth, with his heels generally at the top of the crease on plays off the rush. . . . His skating ability might be his weakest aspect.” – Elite Prospects
Pick analysis: Seattle drafted goalie Niklas Kokko out of Kärpät U20 in Finland in the 2022 draft and came back for an encore in 2023, selecting the goalie that took Kokko’s place for that same club, Vedenpaa. The success of the Kärpät program in developing goaltenders is well documented, and it surely didn’t hurt that Kokko appears to have taken a further step forward since he was drafted. Vedenpaa is highly regarded by the Finnish National Team, as he was one of three Finnish goalies brought to the World Juniors Summer Showcase. He is unlikely to be at the 2024 World Juniors–that should be Kokko and Topias Leinonen–but the invitation suggests he’s a prime candidate to be in net in 2025.
Niklas Kokko and Visa Vedenpaa watch the Kraken Development Camp scrimmage (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Height: 69 inches | Weight: 168 lbs | Shot: L | 1 goal, 0 assists, 18 games played
Big Board: 104 | Highest ranking: 49 (Peter Baracchini)
Analytics Rank: 187 | NHLe Rank: 1919
Scouting perspective: “Forsfjall is a strong playmaking forward. He can run a power play well enough and find seams to create chances. He has good hands and can create in small areas too. He’s not that big or physical, but Forsfjall gives an honest effort every night, can PK, and wins enough puck battles. Forsfjall has played center in junior regularly but I’m guessing he’s a wing as a pro due to his frame. He has strong speed and in-tight quickness although it’s not elite small guy skating. He has talent, but whether there’s enough in his game to be a legit NHL’er is up for debate” – Corey Pronman
Pick analysis: Easy agility on the ice, plus speed, strong puck handling in transition, and tenacity and instincts on defense, particularly penalty kill, characterize Forsfjall’s game. He did not score very much as a 17-year-old fourth-line center in the SHL, but that is to be expected. It’s easy to see the value he brings and fall in love with him as a player, but the question will be whether he can squeeze enough offense out of his profile to succeed. He is a willing forechecker, but light on his skates and won’t be moving hulking defenders off the puck. His shot seems solid, but he has not been able to use it to generate much production yet.
Pick No. 212, Zaccharya Wisdom, RW, Cedar Rapids RoughRiders (USHL)
Height: 73 inches | Weight: 172 lbs | Shot: R | 29 goals, 20 assists, 64 games played
Big Board: 207 | Highest ranking: 164 (McKeen’s Hockey)
Analytics Rank: 584 | NHLe Rank: 461
Scouting perspective: “The significant improvement in production this year thanks to improved on-puck play has put him back on the draft radar. Still a high energy and tenacious off-puck player, Wisdom can now drive play with the puck on his stick thanks to upgrades made to his skating and refinements made to his skill and finishing ability. His upside is likely still pretty limited, but the well-rounded nature of his game makes him an ideal bottom six candidate.” – McKeen’s Hockey
Pick analysis: Wisdom is an overaged, physical winger, who took a step forward with his puck handling and scoring during his 2022-23 season in the USHL, according to scouts. Some see a late-blooming power forward profile capable of earning a bottom-six role down the road. His low point production and age work against him, though. Wisdom is bound for Colorado College in the fall, so he has a longer development timeline and an opportunity to continue to build his game brick-by-brick at the NCAA level.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Two months into the 2022-23 NHL season there was a national media narrative going around that the Kraken’s early season success was driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage and that it was just a matter of time before they would drop toward the bottom of the Pacific Division. That scenario never played out, and the Kraken finished the season with 100 points in the standings. Seattle ultimately turned out the second-highest shooting percentage in the league at 11.6 percent, behind only the Edmonton Oilers.
One would think the 82 regular-season games and 14 games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs would have been enough of a sample size to recognize the Kraken were not lucky, they were good. However, this offseason, the concept of a shooting percentage regression is starting to bleed into the conversation again. We could just dismiss this criticism as somebody viewing the team from afar, but I thought the best thing to do was dig into the numbers myself.
Power play contributions
The first thing I thought about is if the Kraken’s high shooting percentage is being propped up by a disproportionate number of power-play goals. The theory here is that because teams have a higher shooting percentage on the power play, a disproportionate number of goals on the power play could have inflated the Kraken’s shooting percentage to the rest of the league.
That was not the case last season…
Seattle had the fourth-lowest percentage of its goals scored on the power play. This was driven by a lower-than-average number of power-play opportunities and poor power-play conversion by the Kraken. They were ranked 21st in the league in both opportunities and conversion. The Kraken’s shooting percentage on the power play was close to league average, thus not inflating their overall shooting percentage. Conversely, Edmonton had the highest shooting percentage on the power play across the league.
The below visual also illustrates that the Kraken had the highest shooting percentage at even strength.
The Kraken’s high shooting percentage is not being propped up by the power play.
Their strength was their depth
The story of the 2022-23 Seattle Kraken was that their strength was their depth. I have often described the Kraken as a team with three second lines and one third line.
With that context, my theory is that the Kraken’s high shooting percentage is attributed to the fact their third and fourth lines are better than most team’s third and fourth lines. Therefore, we did not see a drop-off in shooting percentages that most other teams in the league had deeper in their lineups.
To investigate that theory, I would need to classify all players into where they fit in their respective lineup. Since depth charts are subjective and can often change throughout the year, that is next to impossible to come up with a clear rule around defining lines for all 32 teams. Instead, I am ranking the players with the most minutes played for the team and then bucketing them into groups of three for the forwards and groups of two for the defensemen.
As such, these are not “lines” in the traditional sense, but more tiers of contributions by minutes. For example, the first group for the Kraken is Alex Wennberg, Jordan Eberle, and Yanni Gourde because those three forwards logged the most minutes for the Kraken, even though Wennberg played most with Jaden Schwartz and Oliver Bjorkstrand throughout the season. It is not perfect, but it is a fair proxy for overall contribution when comparing across teams.
Forwards shooting percentage
This might be stating the obvious, but forwards generally have a higher shooting percentage and log more shots compared to defensemen, so it is important that we evaluate them separately. When we look at each group based on their total minutes played for their team, Seattle’s first forward group ranked as one of the lowest in the league for shooting percentage. But, as you can see below, the Kraken ranked in the top seven for shooting percentage for all other forward groups.
This would support the claim that the depth of this team is its strength, and therefore contributed to its relatively high shooting percentage.
For more context, this is how the groupings played out using the logic explained above.
Note that Eeli Tolvanen, who was acquired on waivers halfway through the season, did not have enough time on ice for the Kraken to make it into Seattle’s top 12 for time played. Tolvanen ranked second in shooting percentage behind Jared McCann for players with over 10 games for the Kraken.
Defensemen shooting percentages
On the defensive side, the Kraken’s top two pairs rank in the top four in shooting percentage.
The defensive contribution pairs align to the actual depth chart pairs for most of the season.
Individual skater shooting percentages
Another area we should evaluate is which Seattle Kraken players had a shooting percentage in 2022-23 that was above their three-year-average shooting percentage. Was this a case where most of the players were shooting above their average? Or was the team constructed of a collection of better shooters compared to other teams?
Here is how the individual shooting percentages break down against players’ three-year averages, with the blue bars representing shooting percentages above a player’s three-year average and the orange bars representing shooting percentages below.
Of the forward group, six players had higher than their three-year average, while six players had below their average. On defense, four out of the six defensemen had above-average shooting percentages. Attempting to be objective, it is conceivable and probably likely Jared McCann, Schwartz, and Tolvanen will see a regression in their shooting percentages, but conversely, it would be equally likely that Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky, and Gourde see improvements in that category. In Bjorkstrand’s case, he seems positioned to improve his shooting percentage. Remember, he took some time getting used to his new team and was ice cold early in the season, only to hit his stride in the second half of the year.
On the blue line, it is likely that Jamie Oleksiak and Justin Schultz see regressions as well, but keep in mind they only accounted for 3.7 percent and 6.6 percent of the Kraken shots respectively. So, a drop in their shooting percentages won’t impact the team’s overall shooting percentage compared to a drop in Eberle’s, for example, who accounted for 11.7 percent of the Kraken’s shots on his own.
Kraken departures
Most Kraken fans might have noticed that the fourth group of forwards in the table above is made up exclusively of players that are no longer with the Kraken. Ryan Donato (CHI), Morgan Geekie (BOS), and Daniel Sprong (DET) have all signed with other teams this offseason. On the surface, that is a significant number of goals to replace in the lineup.
Let us put aside the shooting percentages for a moment. Collectively, the three departing forwards had 44 goals, and the Kraken will need to replace a good portion of those goals to replicate last season’s success. A full season from Burakovsky should add 10 goals, and the new addition of Kailer Yamamoto should add at least 10 goals as well. The remaining 20-goal gap will need to be filled by a mix of Shane Wright, John Hayden, Kole Lind, Tye Kartye, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. Who of those five players draw into the lineup is probably the biggest question heading into the season, with Lind and Kartye being the most natural goal scorers of the group. It is also still a question if AHL success for players like Lind and Kartye can translate to the NHL for a full season.
Yamamoto’s 10.3 percent shooting percentage last season is lower than all three of the Kraken departures, but his career shooting percentage is 13.9 percent, so we should anticipate a rebound. The other players looking to crack the lineup are less predictable, since most of them have limited NHL experience.
Wrapping it up
When you hear people talking about a shooting regression from the Kraken, take it with a grain of salt. If it does happen, it will most likely be driven by the departure of the Kraken’s fourth line of Donato, Geekie, and Sprong. All three of them are good shooters, and it was reflected in the numbers. Yamamoto should be able to replace one of them, and the Kraken hope to get a full season of Burakovsky and Tolvanen, both of whom have above-average shots that will offset some of the loss of the other two fourth-line players.
On June 26, Matty Beniers took the stage at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., to accept the Calder Trophy as the NHL rookie of the year. It was the culmination of a memorable first full pro season for the 20-year-old forward. Beniers scored more than any other rookie, totaling 24 goals and 33 assists in 80 regular-season games. He also played an impressive two-way game, checking difficult top-six forwards night in and night out.
Shortly after the awards ceremony, Kraken ownership and general manager Ron Francis met with Beniers and his agent Pat Brisson. The Kraken were in a busy period between the NHL Draft and free agency but made an appointment with Brisson to circle back on Beniers’s contract. “We said ‘let’s get through . . . a few days and then we’ll start talking,’” Francis recounted a few days later.
So, is the team interested in signing Beniers to a contract extension this summer? “We’d like to do that, for sure,” Francis said.
With Vince Dunn signed, Seattle’s focus may now be on Beniers. So, there is no better time to take a look at Beniers’s contract status, why the Kraken are interested in signing Beniers now, and what it might take to get pen to paper.
Beniers became eligible for a contract extension this summer
The 2023-24 season is the final year of Matty Beniers’s three-year entry-level contract (ELC). Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), a team and player can negotiate and agree to an extension of any multi-year contract, including an ELC, only in the last year of that deal. July 1, 2023, was the first day of the 2023-24 league year, and, as of that date, Beniers became eligible for a contract extension for the first time.
This is an important inflection point when the team and player must grapple with the player’s demonstrated value. Highly drafted players like Beniers have leverage to negotiate for extra performance bonuses in an ELC, but the base compensation package is a fixed amount near the league minimum. In contrast, a contract extension is not limited to any particular structure, except that (1) the term may not go beyond an upper limit of 8 years, and (2) the average annual value (AAV) must fall between an upper limit (20 percent of the salary cap) and lower limit ($775,000).
Upon expiration of the ELC, Beniers is scheduled to be a restricted free agent without arbitration rights. (Need an explainer on anything related to restricted free agency? Check out the appendix to this post.) In theory, if Beniers is not re-signed before next summer, he could talk with other teams and solicit an “offer sheet.” For all intents and purposes, though, this is a contract negotiation between two parties, Beniers and the Kraken.
Beniers and Seattle could be motivated to deal
Can the team and player reach an agreement on a long-term extension? Both sides are likely open to the concept.
From the team’s perspective, there are many positives to a long-term deal. Beniers is an early prime player, still on the upward trajectory of his anticipated aging curve. Securing his services long term based on his performance to date may yield surplus contract value down the road. Furthermore, the salary cap is likely to start escalating at (or almost) five percent per season starting next summer. Locking Beniers in now could look even better in four years when the salary cap is $100 million.
Speaking of which, if the team’s true “window” to compete is in the mid-to-late 2020’s–as I argued in a post earlier this week–minimizing Beniers’s cap hit in that timeframe should be the team’s priority. Signing a long-term deal now is the best way to accomplish that.
On the other hand, the team’s downside on a long-term extension is limited by a CBA rule that allows clubs to buy out remaining years on the contract of a player 25 years old or younger at one third of the remaining contract value. Beniers will not be 26 until Nov., 2028. This means that even in a disastrous scenario, the Kraken would still have flexibility for the majority of the contract term to move on from Beniers with limited salary cap consequences.
For Beniers’s part, a long-term deal also makes sense. Even after the 2023-24 season, he will still be at least five years from unrestricted free agency. A long-term extension would provide him with some security against performance regression or injury. The latter consideration is surely a factor for the slight-framed center. As I will detail below, similar dynamics have led to a spate of long-term deals for similarly positioned young forwards over the last couple years.
Therefore, the key to a successful long-term agreement will be finding common ground on contract AAV. If the sides can’t do that, they may defer further negotiations to next summer or agree to a “bridge” extension at a lower rate. Bridge deals are shorter contracts, in the range of one-to-four years, that cover some but not all of a player’s restricted free agent years. These agreements set up another contract negotiation between the team and player closer to unrestricted free agency.
Bridge deals make sense for mid-roster players or players with high uncertainty in their projections. For example, Seattle and Vince Dunn agreed to a two-year bridge deal after the Expansion Draft. That two-year contract set up this summer’s negotiation. The Dunn example underscores the risk of a bridge deal from the team’s perspective. The team may get a lower AAV for the term of the bridge deal itself, but, oftentimes, the player’s leverage is higher after the bridge deal expires because he is closer to unrestricted free agency. This could cause the team to pay more for less productive, post-peak seasons in order to keep the player. Seattle seemingly avoided that with Dunn by signing him to a deal that ends when he will be 30 years old.
Comparable contracts could guide the negotiations
I gathered contract information from CapFriendly. Matty Beniers has played 90 games and scored 66 points (.733 points per game). Using CapFriendly’s contract comparable tool, I compiled a long list of contracts signed by players as restricted free agents, at a similar age, and with similar games played and points totals at the time of signing.
From this long list I further filtered the results manually, looking for the players that were most similar in point-per-game production and in Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) analytic, which accounts for gameplay contributions beyond point totals.
This process yielded a set of recent contracts with young forwards that will likely serve as a reference point for Beniers and the team. Beniers has less experience and total production than most of these comparables, which weighs against him, but his per-game point production and advanced analytics tend to be similar or better, which weighs in his favor.
For each of these contracts, CapFriendly supplied not only the dollar average annual value (AAV) of the deal, but also the percentage of the salary cap the AAV represented at the time the deal was signed. Using this percentage, I was able to adjust these contracts into a present value by multiplying the percentage by the current NHL salary cap ($83.5 million). This facilitates a fairer, direct comparison to a potential Beniers deal. I refer to this figure as the “cap-adjusted AAV” below.
Let’s dive in.
Reference player: Matty Beniers, Center Statistics at (potential) signing: 90 games played | 66 points | 20 years old
Comparable no. 1: Joshua Norris, Center Contract: 8 years, $7.95 million AAV ($8,049,000 cap-adjusted AAV) Signing date: July 14, 2022 Statistics at signing: 125 games played | 90 points | 23 years old
Contract comparable no. 2: Tim Stutzle, Center Contract: 8 years, $8.35 million AAV ($8,450,200 cap-adjusted AAV) Signing date: September 7, 2022 Statistics at signing: 132 games played | 87 points | 21 years old
Contract comparable no. 3: Nick Suzuki, Center Contract: 8 years, $7.875 million AAV ($8,066,100 cap-adjusted AAV) Signing date: October 12, 2021 Statistics at signing: 127 games played | 82 points | 22 years old
Contract comparable no. 4: Nico Hischier, Center Contract: 7 years, $7.25 million AAV ($7,431,500 cap-adjusted AAV) Signing date: October 18, 2019 Statistics at signing: 156 games played | 101 points | 21 years old
Contract comparable no. 5: John Tavares, Center Contract: 6 years, $5.50 million AAV ($7,139,250 cap-adjusted AAV) Signing date: September 14, 2011 Statistics at signing: 161 games played | 121 points | 20 years old
Contract comparable no. 6: Nazem Kadri, Center Contract: 2 years, $2.90 million AAV ($3,765,850 cap-adjusted AAV) Signing date: September 10, 2013 Statistics at signing: 99 games played | 63 points | 22 years old
Contract comparable no. 7: Logan Couture, Center Contract: 2 years, $2.875 million AAV ($3,732,450 cap-adjusted AAV) Signing date: August 30, 2011 Statistics at signing: 104 games played | 65 points | 22 years old
The comparable contracts above reveal a pretty tight range for a long-term deal between the team and the Calder Trophy winner–an eight-year term at somewhere between $7.15 million and $8.45 million AAV. Failing agreement in that range, a bridge deal might look something like a two-year deal around $3.75 million AAV.
Projecting a contract for Matty Beniers
Based on the comparables above, I’ll project that the Kraken and Matty Beniers agree to an eight-year extension this summer (or early in the 2023-24 season) worth approximately $8 million AAV, give or take a few hundred thousand dollars. This would make Beniers the team’s highest-paid player when the extension kicks in, but keeps him close enough within range of Dunn’s recent $7.35 million AAV contract that he will not carry undue pressure as the team’s singular star player. Any issues in the room with making a 20-year-old the team’s highest-paid player would be mitigated somewhat by the fact that Beniers would still play this coming season under his existing ELC that calls for a base salary of just $897,500.
That said, there are a few reasons to be skeptical that this type of deal will get done. Francis has never signed a player to an eight-year contract. He has also never signed a player to a contract worth more than $37.1 million in total value (Jaccob Slavin was the highest total contract), $7.35 million AAV (Dunn was the highest AAV), or 8.8 percent of total cap hit (Dunn again). It will likely require new highs in each of these measures to sign Beniers long term.
Further, one of Beniers’s closer comparable contracts not included in the above list is Elias Lindholm’s 2015 deal with Francis’s Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes and a 20-year-old Lindholm agreed to a two-year bridge deal worth $2.7 million AAV ($3,156,300 AAV in cap-adjusted terms). Lindholm’s point production at that time (.43 points per game) pales in comparison with Beniers’s pace (.72 points per game), however.
Finally, it is reasonable to point out that Francis resisted giving defenseman Vince Dunn a long-term deal earlier this summer. While many saw an eight-year deal as a foregone conclusion, Francis eventually signed Dunn for just four years.
Beniers’s case is different than Dunn’s case in several material respects, though. First, Beniers is much younger than Dunn, and it is much easier to project him to sustain or improve his performance level to date.
Second, while Beniers’s track record is shorter than Dunn’s, he has not fallen below an above-average performance level at any point in his hockey career. Dunn’s record has been more volatile. As recently as the 2021-22 season, Dunn looked like a talented but mistake-prone, second-pair defenseman.
Third, Beniers has a rare profile. He is a second overall pick and a Calder Trophy winner who plays a premium position and displays leadership qualities on and off the ice. He’s the type of player any team would like to have as a cornerstone. While there are risks, particularly given that Beniers has only one full season of NHL experience, I think the team and player will find common ground on an extension that keeps the young forward in the Pacific Northwest long term.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
We hear a lot about it, but when is the “competitive window” open for the Seattle Kraken? It’s a question John Barr and Darren Brown received in the most recent Sound Of Hockey Podcast mailbag episode, and one I’ve been thinking about.
Asked about the expected timeframe for a typical Kraken draft pick to debut in the NHL, general manager Ron Francis said on July 1, “It’s probably a three-to-four-year timeline.” Francis might as well have been describing the shelf life of the current iteration of the Seattle Kraken team, though.
Digging into the data, the Kraken have one of the oldest rosters in the NHL and have relied heavily on those older players to produce. But unlike some teams, the Kraken are not locked into their current roster long term. Many contracts phase out over the next couple years, and Seattle has no contracts at all with more than four years of term remaining. This puts them in rare company. The Kraken are one of only two NHL teams with zero dollars in cap commitments after the 2026-27 season.
All of this points to significant roster turnover in the coming years. It also gets us back to that question Francis received—about the timeline for Seattle’s prospects. With any luck, several of a trove of high draft picks from Seattle’s first three drafts will start pushing for NHL roles between the 2024-25 season (the fourth season after Seattle’s first draft) and the 2026-27 season (the fourth season after the team’s third and most recent draft).
It’s easy to see the fit with the timing of the team’s NHL deals. If things go according to plan, in three-to-four years, Kraken homegrown talent will be contributing on cheaper contracts, and the team will have relatively clean books to supplement that talent via free agency. If the draft picks do not work out, the team will still be in position to reset, unhampered by long contracts for declining players. Seattle would be able to trade its last big NHL contracts, restock its draft picks, and try again.
There is a lot of work ahead for the Kraken front office, but they’ve put the team in an enviable position. On the one hand, the Kraken are contending for the playoffs with their current roster. On the other hand, they have the resources—both in terms of prospects and future cap space—to take a further step forward in three-to-four years. The status of the Kraken roster suggests this may be the true “competitive window” the team is targeting.
Kraken prospects are finally starting to knock at the door
Tye Kartye advances the puck (Photo/Brian Liesse)
As Francis noted, it takes time for drafted prospects to start to arrive at the NHL level. “Ideally it’s two more years, if they’re in juniors, and then they start coming up the American [Hockey] League,” Francis explained.
Seattle is just now two full seasons removed from its inaugural draft. Right on Francis’s schedule, the Coachella Valley Firebirds will see their first significant influx of young talent this season, with drafted prospects Jacob Melanson, Ryan Winterton, Tucker Robertson, and Ville Ottavainen, and undrafted free agent Logan Morrison, all projected to join the team.
That group is only the beginning. Across three drafts, the Seattle Kraken have used 17 top-100 draft picks. That total is third most in the league behind only the Chicago Blackhawks (19) and the Arizona Coyotes (18). This is significant. Consider that six teams—the Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs—have made just four top-100 picks in the same span.
While the first of Seattle’s draft picks, Matty Beniers, has already emerged as a legitimate NHL player, the rest are still developing. It is still too soon to know what they will be, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the group of players Seattle has coming.
Most notably, the team has secured a stable of high-scoring forwards from the junior hockey ranks. According to data tracked by Pick224, among those playing at least 20 CHL games last season, the Seattle Kraken had five of the top 25 in primary points per game—Melanson, Morrison, Shane Wright, David Goyette, and Jagger Firkus.
This group is supported by a diverse cupboard of skaters bringing physicality and scoring (Tye Kartye and Jani Nyman) or defensive profiles (Oscar Fisker Mølgaard and Zeb Forsfjall) to high-level professional leagues at a young age.
On the blue line, Ryker Evans was an AHL All-Star in his rookie professional season. And, in the CHL, Lukas Dragicevic and Ty Nelson both ranked within the top 20 defensemen in even-strength primary points per game, while also showing the ability to play key power-play minutes.
Wright is likely to contribute this year or next. Francis has spoken highly of Evans and Kartye too, and it seems probable both will get an opportunity for a full-time role with the Kraken by the 2024-25 season at the latest. Players like Melanson, Nelson, Ottavainen, or Winterton could push for NHL time after that.
Seattle’s NHL roster is aging
At the NHL level, the Kraken have a veteran-heavy lineup. This is not surprising, of course. Since draft picks take time to develop, Seattle was constrained to build its initial teams by two main methods. First, the Kraken had the Expansion Draft, a process that exempted most young players. Second, Seattle had unrestricted free agency, where most players are only eligible for UFA status after they are 27 years old.
Fast forward two years and the Kraken roster is one of the oldest in the league. I calculated the average age of projected 2023-24 NHL rosters using the starters projected in depth chart tool on CapFriendly. The average age of the projected Kraken lineup is 28.30, which is tied with the New York Islanders and Minnesota Wild for the sixth-oldest lineup in the league.
Paired with what we know about how NHL players’ skills decline over time, the age of Seattle’s roster weighs heavily on my mind when considering whether a 2023-24 Kraken team that returns mostly the same lineup can improve from last year’s performance.
Individual players can skew averages, though, so I also looked at how many 30+-year-old players each team projected to carry on their 2023-24 rosters. All studiesseem to agree that players peak in their 20’s. So age 30+ players—as a group, on average—can be expected to decline. (Beyond that, there is no magic to this cutoff I used beyond its roundness. Could the cutoff have been 29 or 31? Yes.)
By this measure, too, Seattle has an old roster. The Kraken are projected to carry 11 players at least 30 years of age, which is tied for second most in the league with the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals, and behind only the Pittsburgh Penguins.
As an aside, the Penguins stand out as an extreme outlier, with, by far, the oldest roster in the NHL. In fact, the difference in average age between the Penguins (30.91) and the second-oldest team, the Washington Capitals (29.00), is bigger than the difference between the Capitals and the 22nd-oldest team, the Winnipeg Jets (27.17). Pittsburgh also projects to carry four more age 30+ players than any other team.
Since no two players on a roster are equally valuable or relied upon, I also looked at (1) how many games those 30+-year-old players played in the 2022-23 season, (2) their average time on ice, and (3) how many goals they scored. If a team’s over-30 players are fourth-line forwards, backup goaltenders, or healthy scratches, there is less of a concern about age-related regression.
This analysis showed that the Kraken are heavily reliant on their older players. Seattle’s age 30+ players: (1) played 794 games in the 2022-23 season, second most in the league; (2) averaged 17:41 of ice time per game, tenth most in the league, and (3) scored 101 goals, eighth most in the league.
All of this suggests that the arc of the current NHL roster is likely to decline without changes to address age-related regression.
Seattle’s minimal contract commitments give the team flexibility
The Kraken have constructed their roster carefully, however, and find themselves in relatively strong position to solve for any age-related issues. Absent any other transactions this offseason, the Kraken will enter the season with more than $2 million in cap space—ample room to make any in-season moves.
Looking forward, Seattle’s veteran contracts all cycle out over the next four years. Setting aside entry-level contracts, the Kraken have fifteen NHL contracts covering the 2024-25 season, but that number drops down to seven in 2025-26, four in 2026-27, and none in 2027-28 and beyond.
Of course, it is desirable to lock in young talent on long-term deals, like New Jersey has done, for example. But Seattle has not yet had those options with early-prime players. (Beniers is the first player worthy of such a contract, and I expect Seattle to pursue it.)
Instead, Seattle has exercised admirable restraint in resisting maximum-term deals for older potential free agent targets (like Gabriel Landeskog at the Expansion Draft) or high uncertainty internal options (Vince Dunn).
Seattle’s future flexibility is even more pronounced when looking at the salary cap charges of the future contract years on the books.
This information on future contracts and cap charges was drawn from the active player database at CapFriendly.
Changes are on the horizon
I infer from the information above that the Kraken may be targeting a timeframe three-to-four years out—when the team is cycling in a large wave of young talent to replace the current veteran core—as an ideal window to take the “next step.” The Kraken’s veteran contracts will be off the books, and the team should have as much or more cap space than any competitor to target free agents to supplement a cheaper group of prime-aged players.
In the meantime, Seattle has a veteran-driven lineup that has proven capable of making the playoffs and making noise when it gets there. This is quite the trick.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
The deal means the team and player avoid a contentious arbitration hearing, which had been scheduled for July 24. With the contract signed, Dunn now becomes the highest-paid player on the Kraken.
Dunn, selected from the St. Louis Blues in Seattle’s Expansion Draft, blossomed into a top defenseman last season. The puck mover played on the top pair with Adam Larsson throughout the year and quarterbacked Seattle’s power play.
Coming off a two-year deal that paid him $4 million per season, Dunn was the last remaining restricted free agent for the Kraken to sign this offseason. The contract eats up most of Seattle’s remaining cap space, which CapFriendly now projects to be just $934,424.
The Kraken will surely create extra breathing room by placing either Chris Driedger or Joey Daccord on waivers after training camp, but still, if nothing changes between now and then, Seattle will be within spitting distance of the cap. So, this could mean the Kraken front office is close to finished with its offseason tinkering. At this point, any significant upgrades would likely have to come via player-for-player trade, as a futures-for-player trade wouldn’t fit.
A deal months in the making
It is no surprise to see this deal get done. From the day Seattle’s season ended, Francis and Dunn both expressed a desire to get a long-term deal consummated. Dunn told media on locker cleanout day that he was “all in” on the Kraken organization and had every intention of staying in Seattle for the foreseeable future. It was always his expectation that he would be here beyond the upcoming season.
While this contract took longer to get done than the smaller, less complicated ones signed by RFA’s Kole Lind, Will Borgen, and Cale Fleury earlier this summer, it was always going to happen. Kraken fans can breathe a sigh of relief, though, as the looming arbitration hearing would have resulted in a one-year deal being awarded.
What the Kraken have in Vince Dunn
Dunn, 26, had a nice breakout for Seattle last season, and at one point was hearing his name mentioned in Norris Trophy conversations. After his first five seasons in the NHL, he had never scored more than 35 points, but in 2022-23, he erupted for 64 points (14—50=64).
The career season was surely helped by his veteran, stay-at-home defense partner, Larsson, who allowed Dunn to roam more freely and make riskier stretch passes to send teammates on odd-man rushes. Larsson is under contract for two more seasons, so the top pair will likely remain intact at least through 2024-25. This new deal also means Dunn will remain in Seattle throughout the prime of his career, as he will be under contract with the Kraken until he turns 30 years old.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Seattle Kraken announced Wednesday they had given coach Dave Hakstol a two-year contract extension that will last through the 2025-26 season. The new deal is a vote of confidence from general manager Ron Francis—also contractually extended earlier this offseason—and Kraken ownership, who watched Hakstol lead a dramatic turnaround for the franchise from its first season to its second.
“It’s the next step for us,” Hakstol said. “Obviously, we’re going to try to work to build the foundation, and we did that a little bit year one and made progress in year two. So for myself and for our staff, we take pride in the opportunity to continue working towards continuing in the right direction. For that, I’m really grateful for that opportunity.”
The Kraken finished their inaugural season in last place in the Pacific Division with a measly 60 points in the standings. Yet, the team never quit on Hakstol during that campaign, even after the NHL Trade Deadline when several veteran players had been jettisoned for draft picks.
Seattle kept that never-say-die attitude in its second season, and the result was a shocking 40-point improvement, a playoff series win over the defending champion Colorado Avalanche, and a seven-game series loss to the Dallas Stars in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In the end, the Kraken came up just one goal short of the Western Conference Finals.
“We believe we are heading in the right direction with Dave as our head coach and it was important to show that confidence with this contract extension,” Francis said via a press release Thursday. “Dave and his staff have done a great job of creating a close-knit, team-first mindset in our locker room and their work ethic helps set the tone for our team.”
For his efforts behind the bench, Hakstol was a finalist for the Jack Adams Award but finished third behind Boston’s Jim Montgomery and New Jersey’s Lindy Ruff. The contract extension is a nice consolation prize, though, and a deserved one at that, as Hakstol proved this season that the Kraken got it right by hiring him as their first head coach.
Quieting the naysayers
The naysayers were plentiful as the Kraken sunk to the bottom of the standings in 2021-22, and those same social media pundits calling for Hakstol’s job were again very vocal when Seattle didn’t get out to the hottest start to 2022-23.
Kraken Twitter got downright painful at times early in the team’s second season, when seemingly every Sound Of Hockey tweet after a loss was met with some varietal of “Fire Hakstol.”
But the players persevered under Hakstol, showed they had fully bought into his systems and philosophy, and eventually got onto a couple massive hot streaks that propelled them into the postseason.
What struck us as most impressive about the job Hakstol did last season was the way the Kraken addressed problems on the fly. A great example was the penalty kill, which struggled mightily in the early going, then changed tactics and personnel and became one of the more consistent PK’s in the league for the second half of the season. We detailed those in-season changes here.
As improvements were made, little by little, and as the team started to solidify its position in the playoffs, Hakstol’s naysayers gradually went quiet.
A steady style and comfortability with the players
Whether he heard the critics or not, Hakstol never let it show, even in the worst moments of the inaugural season, when the coach himself had to be wondering about his job security. He took responsibility for losses when he could, rarely called out individual players directly, and was sure to give credit to everyone but himself if the team won.
That’s the thing with Hakstol, though; at least publicly, you almost always know exactly what you’re going to get. There’s no change in his demeanor from one game to the next, even after the biggest wins and the worst losses, and the team is much bigger than its coach.
Meanwhile, behind closed doors, Hakstol and his staff have fostered an environment of open and honest communication and formed close bonds with the players, something Hakstol said “didn’t happen overnight.”
“If you look at the members of our staff, we’ve got great communicators, you’ve got different personalities, different backgrounds,” Hakstol said. “And my true belief is inside of our coaches room, we care about our players and how we can connect with them.”
In true unselfish Hakstol fashion, he also made sure to directly credit associate coach Dave Lowry, assistant coaches Jay Leach and Paul McFarland, and goalie coach Steve Briere for their efforts.
Coming back with a clean slate
Whether the organization can replicate what it did in 2022-23 or even improve upon it remains to be seen. Either way, Hakstol will be the man at the helm of the Kraken ship for the foreseeable future.
In communicating with his returning players this summer, Hakstol says he likes what he’s hearing.
“I really want our guys to have a sense of pride in what they were able to accomplish last year and what we were able to build,” Hakstol said. “And I sense that. I feel that in the conversations with our players. But the other piece that I feel, the part that is really important is our guys are very disappointed in losing game seven in round two.”
Hakstol said he hopes the taste of success and the disappointment that followed will bring the players into training camp with extra motivation to reach the next level in 2023-24. Now, with his two-year extension, the coach can rest assured that Seattle’s ownership and front office believe in him as the right man to guide them there.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Seattle Kraken AHL affiliate, the Coachella Valley Firebirds, won the Western Conference and made it within one game of winning the Calder Cup in their inaugural season.
“We probably don’t talk enough about the American Hockey League team,” Seattle Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke told the assembled media during the May 31, 2023, press conference announcing the team’s agreement to extend the contract of general manager Ron Francis. Leiweke was not boasting, though. To the contrary, he mentioned the Firebirds in order to credit Francis for building a contender in the desert. “Others certainly helped [build the Firebirds], but Ron had the vision,” Leiweke remarked.
No doubt the Kraken front office deserves credit, but Leiweke and his co-owners are among the “others” that should be mentioned. The Kraken ownership group—which also owns and operates the Coachella Valley Firebirds—has invested significant resources in assembling a deep and talented group at the AHL level. Looking at the available contract data for the 2023-24 season, few teams project to spend more on their AHL players.
The Kraken aren’t spending this money for appearances; they don’t talk about it, and nobody is covering it. Instead, it seems Seattle has quietly spent more than most of their competitors for one reason only—to win.
To be certain, a competitive AHL roster is crucial to developing the fanbase in Coachella Valley. But the team has shown a willingness to spend beyond what is necessary just to compete and get fans in the door. The commitment to building a contender in Seattle and Palm Desert runs deep.
There are few limits on roster spending at the AHL level
AHL teams are made up of players on NHL contracts (paid by the NHL team) and AHL contracts (paid by the AHL team)—though, in the case of the Firebirds, the money is coming from the same place. Players signing NHL contracts are entitled to a minimum salary in the NHL based on their draft year, ranging from $62,500 if drafted in 2005 to $82,500 if drafted in 2023. Terms of AHL contracts are not made publicly available, but there is a flat minimum salary of $52,725 for the 2023-24 season.
Beyond that, there is no salary cap applicable to the AHL level, and there are no maximum salaries limiting AHL contracts (or the NHL contracts assigned there). There are not even roster size limits on AHL rosters until the playoffs. In fact, the only real AHL roster construction limitation is the so-called “veteran rule,” which requires that each AHL team dress a minimum of 12 players with fewer than 260 games of NHL experience.
NHL-level teams are limited by an upper restriction on the total number of active player contracts they can maintain at any given time (50) and an upper limit on spending ($83.5 million in 2023-24). NHL contracts can be either (a) “one-way” contracts, meaning the contract provides for a fixed, guaranteed salary regardless of whether the player is in the NHL or AHL, or (b) “two-way” contracts, meaning the contract has one salary for time spent at the NHL level and another salary for time spent at the AHL level.
Players assigned to the AHL do not count against the limit unless the contracts call for an AHL salary above a specified threshold ($1,150,000 in 2023-24). This is what it means to “bury” an NHL contract in the minor leagues. (For more on “buried” contracts, check out CapFriendly‘s explainer here.)
Taking these rules together, there is very little in the AHL or NHL collective bargaining agreements limiting teams from acquiring as much talent as they can afford—particularly when those contracts carry AHL salaries below the threshold to be “buried” in the AHL without consequence on the NHL salary cap.
The Kraken have built NHL depth through the AHL roster
When it comes to investing in the roster, few teams outpace the Seattle Kraken. In the inaugural season, Seattle’s ownership group declared its willingness to spend to the cap on the NHL team. In year two, Seattle’s owners spent every dime of the $82.5 million NHL roster upper limit. In fact, the Kraken effectively spent beyond the cap and will carry a bonus overage on Matty Beniers’s contract onto their 2023-24 books.
But nowhere is Seattle’s commitment to spending more evident than in its efforts to build depth at the AHL level. In the short term, while the team is still building its pipeline of drafted prospects, the Kraken have invested heavily in veteran AHL talent with the ability to play top-of-the-lineup roles. This has been critical to Coachella Valley’s on-ice success and developing the fanbase there. Even more importantly, it is smart insurance for the NHL team.
For example, defenseman Gustav Olofsson not only played top-four minutes for the Firebirds last season, he was first in line for a call up on the left side of the NHL blue line, until his injury prompted Seattle to trade for Jaycob Megna. Even with Megna on board, and prospect Ryker Evans developing, Seattle valued Olofsson’s role in the organization enough to re-sign him to a two-year, two-way contract this offseason that guarantees him at least $800,000 over those two years, even if he spends all of that time in Palm Desert. That is a hefty commitment to protect the NHL team. It’s not the type of move every team would make.
Gustav Oloffsson looks to pass the puck. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The Joey Daccord signing is perhaps the clearest example of Seattle’s willingness to spend money on depth. With Philipp Grubauer ensconced as the starter in net, either Daccord, and his $1.2 million average annual value (AAV) contract, or Chris Driedger, and his $3.5 million AAV contract, project to be blocking AHL pucks this season. But that extra goaltender is just one injury away from being a critical piece for the NHL club.
The Kraken are near the top of the league in spending on projected AHL players
Quantifying where Seattle ranks among its NHL competitors in AHL spending for the 2023-24 season is complicated by the fact that AHL contract terms are not disclosed. It’s also difficult to project exact payrolls because AHL free agency—and, to a lesser extent, NHL free agency—remains ongoing. The Firebirds announced their first AHL contract signing for the 2023-24 season just yesterday.
To get a decent picture of where Seattle stacks up, I started by projecting NHL contracts likely to be assigned to the AHL level. I compiled all active NHL contracts in CapFriendly’s contract database and then backed out the contracts of all players contained in that site’s projected NHL depth charts. I then made minor adjustments to these depth charts to reflect likely roster composition (i.e, one or two “extra” forwards, one “extra” defenseman, and only two total goalies). I moved Daccord to the AHL level for the Kraken because CapFriendly had three goalies listed at the NHL level, which is highly unlikely assuming all three are healthy, and replaced him with Kole Lind.
This procedure left a list of players on NHL contracts projected to play outside the NHL. I used this list to look at which team had the most contracts with above-minimum salary guarantees for players playing the AHL. This includes players on “one-way” contracts—on which players earn at least the NHL minimum salary even if they are in the AHL—and those on “two-way” contracts whose contracts call for an AHL salary above the applicable minimum.
As anticipated, Seattle ranks highly. The Kraken are one of only eight NHL clubs with 10 or more players projected to play in the AHL on NHL contracts calling for greater than minimum AHL salaries. For Seattle, this includes three players on “one-way” contracts—Daccord, Cale Fleury, and Andrew Poturalski. The Pittsburgh Penguins lead the way with 13 players projected to play in the AHL on NHL contracts calling for salaries above the AHL minimum salary, including a staggering six one-way contracts for players currently projected to be in the AHL.
Digging a bit deeper, I then built an approximated AHL payroll associated with each NHL team. Of course, many players on NHL entry-level contracts will be loaned back to CHL clubs or clubs in other professional leagues. But those entry-level contracts carry minimum minor-league salaries, and if those players are not in the AHL, they will likely be replaced on the AHL team with roughly comparable minimum-NHL-contract or AHL-contract salaries.
To the extent the team did not have enough associated contracts to fill an AHL roster of approximately 23 players, I used a standard contract value ($80,000) between the minimum salary on AHL contracts ($52,725) and the minimum salary of the most recent draftees on NHL deals ($82,500) as “stand-in” values for the estimated cost of further additions. To the extent the team had more than 23 non-NHL contracts, I subtracted out the value of the most recent entry-level contracts associated with the team, projecting that those players would end up back in the CHL or elsewhere.
Acknowledging that this procedure yields nothing better than a rough estimate, this projection puts Seattle’s overall AHL payroll as the third-highest in the league. Individual players can skew these results. If, for example, Chris Driedger were sent through waivers instead of Joey Daccord in the upcoming season, the Firebirds’ total roster cost would be higher. On the other hand, if Daccord or Driedger were claimed off waivers, the roster cost would be lower. There is a lot of uncertainty in projecting an AHL payroll in July.
One thing is certain, though; Seattle has committed to spending on talent that will play mostly in Coachella Valley. The Seattle front office deserves credit for identifying a group of players that can compete with the very best in the AHL. But ownership deserves credit, too, for spending beyond what many other teams are willing to do. We probably don’t talk about that enough.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
With the offseason lull seemingly in full swing, we thought it would be a good time to break down the 2023-24 Seattle Kraken schedule to get a flavor for what lies ahead. Here we will dig into travel, back-to-back games, and give some interesting factoids to understand what is on the docket for the Kraken this coming season.
Travel distance
One bit of housekeeping before we get into the breakdown. For simplicity, I did not incorporate the travel involved for the NHL Global Series for teams traveling to Sweden in mid-November. This means that Detroit, Minnesota, Ottawa, and Toronto will have understated miles on any charts and references to their travel distance.
Based on the location of Seattle in North America, the Kraken will always have one of the heavier travel schedules across the league. This year is no different in that regard.
The Kraken have the ninth-most travel miles over the regular season with 45,434 miles expected. That is up 600 miles from last season. As you might be able to tell by looking at the teams in the top 10, the Pacific Division teams generally have more travel than other NHL teams.
Here is how it breaks down by division:
The Pacific Division teams are clustered with similar amounts of travel, and Seattle falls just below the average for its divisional rivals.
Number of road trips
One side benefit of the increased travel is that the Kraken have fewer road trips than most other teams. This is because when they hit the road, they tend to also visit more cities and games on a single trip to limit the number of longer-haul flights. Seattle is tied for the fewest road trips in the league.
Here is a look at how homestands and road trips break down by month for this coming season:
November looks a bit crazy, but there are two one-game road trips in there to Edmonton and Vancouver, so that skews things a bit.
Back-to-back games
Statistically speaking, teams playing the second game of a back-to-back scenario have a disadvantage, winning just 181 out of 410 games in 2022-23. The good news for the Kraken is they have the fewest back-to-backs in the league in 2023-24 with just seven of these occasions on their schedule.
The bad news is that the Kraken were 5-3-0 in the second game of back-to-back scenarios last season, so maybe they would have liked to play more of them? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I am declaring Nov. 13-20 as hockey week in the Puget Sound. There are three Kraken home games and two home games each for the Silvertips and Thunderbirds, including a home-and-home against each other. That’s seven games across those eight days. How many games can you (and we) attend?
If a full week of hockey is just too many days for you, there is also a packed hockey weekend in December. There are five games from Dec. 8-10 across the Kraken and local junior teams. If you wanted to, you could see the Tri-City Americans versus the Seattle Thunderbirds Friday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning against the Kraken on Saturday night, and the Portland Winterhawks against the Everett Silvertips on Sunday. That sounds like a heck of a weekend.
There are also seven days where the Everett Silvertips, Seattle Thunderbirds, and Seattle Kraken all play on the same day.
If you are looking to catch glimpses of any Seattle Kraken prospects as they roll through town, you should get ample opportunity to see Lukas Dragicevic (TC), Caden Price (KEL), and Kaden Hammell (EVT), but the two games I am circling on my calendar are when Jagger Firkus and the Moose Jaw Warriors come to town. The Firkus Circus visits the Silvertips on March 1 and the Thunderbirds on March 2.
Epic Seattle Kraken hockey fan road trip
When I saw the Kraken schedule get released, I already blocked off my calendar for March 21 and 22 to see the Kraken take on Vegas and Arizona respectively on the road. But then the AHL schedule came out…
I do not know if I will make all four games of that sequence, but I know I have to get down to Coachella Valley this season for a Firebirds game. That atmosphere looked awesome all year, and it looked extra rowdy in the playoffs.
If you have any questions or games that you are looking forward to, let us know in the comments below. Only 85 days until opening night.
Over the weekend, the Seattle Kraken announced deals with two of the team’s restricted free agents. First, on Saturday, Forward Kole Lind signed a one-year, two-way deal, worth $775,000 at the NHL level. Then, on Sunday, defenseman Cale Fleury signed a two-year, one-way deal worth $800,000 annually with the Kraken. Following a deal with defenseman Will Borgen on Friday, only one Kraken restricted free agent remains unsigned – Vince Dunn.
The Kraken sign Kole Lind to a one-year deal
Lind, 24, spent the entire 2022-23 season with the Coachella Valley Firebirds, appearing in all 72 games and 26 postseason games. He had a terrific scoring season in the AHL, recording 30 goals and 32 assists in the regular season. His 62 points were second on the team and tied for 16th in the entire AHL. Lind elevated his already lofty play in the postseason, leading all AHL skaters in points (31) and assists (22), and trailing only teammate Max McCormick in goals (9).
The 6-foot-1 right-handed winger has two goals and six assists in 30 career NHL games, most coming during the 2021-22 season with the Kraken.
Lind’s deal for the 2023-24 season is a two-way contract, meaning that while he is set to earn $775,000 at the NHL level, he will earn a lower minimum guaranteed salary of $345,000 if he returns to the AHL again this season.
An NHL role for Kole?
Lind has proven that he can be an elite playmaker and finisher at the AHL level. Since he pairs those skills with a willingness to play a physical game and serve as an agitator, there is plenty to like about Lind’s projection to the NHL level. In my mind, the questions with Lind are, first, whether he can keep pace at the NHL level, particularly defensively, given his below-average skating speed, and, second, whether he can keep the penalties under control.
I believe Lind should be a strong consideration for the fourth-line right wing or extra forward role in Seattle this coming season. I think Kailer Yamamoto likely has the edge over Lind for regular playing time to start, but Lind will have training camp to make his case. In the event of an injury to a winger, he and Tye Kartye are at the front of the line to fill in.
Kole Lind (Photo/Brian Liesse)
A mutually advantageous deal?
Seattle extended a qualifying offer to Lind for a one-year, two-way contract worth $892,500 at the NHL level. Even so, Lind negotiated and agreed to a deal with lower monetary upside in the NHL. Why? I can speculate at two potential explanations.
First, Lind may have agreed to a lower NHL salary in return for an increased AHL salary above the minimum that would have come with the qualifying offer. His minimum guaranteed salary last season was $175,000. That sum has almost doubled this year to $345,000. This is significant for a player whose estimated earnings to date are just over $1 million.
Second, Lind’s camp may have reached the conclusion that he had a greater chance to actually earn the higher NHL salary if he agreed to take a bit less. How so? With other potential end-of-the-roster players like John Hayden and Pierre-Édouard Bellemare carrying $775,000 cap numbers, taking a higher NHL number may have worked against Lind’s chances of staying on the NHL roster with the Kraken. With Seattle spending to the cap, every dollar matters and can be significant in weighing marginal pieces. Of course, this is true of other teams around the NHL too. Lind could be slightly more interesting on waivers at $775,000 than he would have been at $892,500 (or more).
This latter consideration may have also contributed to his decision to forego his right to request salary arbitration. Even if he was “successful” at arbitration, the contract would have been a two-way deal and a high NHL salary may have helped push him back to the AHL level for another season. Certainly, Lind would have preferred a one-way deal at or around the value of the qualifying offer, but Seattle wasn’t willing to offer it.
An unrestricted free agent at 25 years old next offseason?
As I have written about, a player who would otherwise be a restricted free agent qualifies as a “Group 6” unrestricted free agent if the player’s contract ends and he is (a) over 25 years old, (b) has played three or more professional seasons, and (c) has played in fewer than 80 NHL games.
Unless Lind appears in 50 regular-season or postseason NHL games this season, or is re-signed in the interim, Lind will meet each of these criteria next offseason. At 25 years old and boasting a prolific AHL scoring resume, he will likely have leverage and suitors on the open market. All of this makes it an important year for Lind and his future with the Kraken organization.
Fleury, 24, spent the 2022-23 season with the Kraken, but he rarely saw the ice as an extra defenseman on a relatively healthy blue line. He appeared in 12 games, totaled just under 160 minutes on the ice and recorded no goals and one assist. Overall, Fleury has appeared in 68 NHL games, with two points (one goal and last year’s assist).
In the press release announcing the signing to a two-year deal, the Kraken noted that Fleury’s 10.51 hits per sixty minutes led the 2022-23 Kraken, and his 4.88 blocked shots per sixty minutes ranked second among all skaters who played in more than 10 games.
Since his sample size is small, we can’t take too much from his on-ice shot analytics, but the information we do have doesn’t stand out positively or negatively. In my mind’s eye, Fleury was a capable sixth or seventh defender who swung back and forth between impressive and frustrating plays and reads on the defensive side and was fairly quiet offensively.
Was a two-year term the key to a compromise?
Similar to the offer extended to Lind, Seattle’s qualifying offer to Cale Fleury was a one-year, two-way deal worth $787,500 at the NHL level and less at the AHL level. Unlike Lind, though, Fleury has a longer NHL track record, more leverage, and requested arbitration to set his salary, absent a negotiated agreement. Seattle, recognizing that leverage, agreed to a one-way deal structure over two years to get the deal done.
On Fleury’s side, the two-year deal guarantees him $1.6 million no matter where he plays. On Seattle’s side, the term is also significant. Like Lind, Fleury had the chance to be a Group 6 unrestricted free agent after this upcoming season. With 62 NHL games under his belt, if the team had sent him through waivers to the AHL or he sat another year behind three healthy right-shot defensemen, he may not have gotten into 18 additional games.
The two-year deal avoids the potential Group 6 conundrum this coming offseason and locks Fleury in for the 2024-25 season as well. Assuming Fleury stays with Seattle for the full two years and gets in 18 games over those two seasons, he would again be a restricted free agent in the 2025 offseason.
Cale Fleury (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Could we see a Fleury in the desert?
The Kraken have eight defensemen on one-way contracts for this coming season: Dunn (when it gets finished, it will be a one-way deal), Adam Larsson, Jamie Oleksiak, Will Borgen, Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, Jaycob Megna, and Fleury. Theoretically, the team could keep all eight in Seattle. The Kraken carried eight defenders for much of their inaugural season. Seven defenders is more typical, however.
Seattle didn’t send Fleury through waivers last year (a) because he was the best bet on the roster for the seventh defender role, and (b) they didn’t have the AHL depth on the right side to withstand losing him to a waiver claim. The dynamic is different this year. Megna can capably fill the seventh defender role, and Seattle has righty defender Connor Carrick, a veteran of 242 NHL games, signed to a one-year deal and bound for Coachella Valley.
If Carrick clears waivers earlier in camp, which he likely will, the Kraken might feel confident enough to test waivers on Fleury. Fleury is still a young player who needs ice time to develop. 160 minutes of ice time in an entire season is not doing him or Seattle any favors. If given the option, I think the team would rather see Fleury get a full slate of games in the AHL while the older Megna serves as the occasionally used NHL healthy scratch.
The two-year, one-way deal structure might also cause a team to hesitate claiming Fleury on waivers. This too could help him get through waivers and to Coachella Valley this year.
Performance and injuries, if any, in camp will be a significant factor. But, as it stands in early July, I could see Fleury with the Firebirds this coming season. In the desert he could start building chemistry with future Kraken teammate Ryker Evans.
A 2024-25 NHL role in mind?
Looking forward, Seattle has only two other right-side defensemen, Larsson and Borgen, signed for the 2024-25 season. This contract places Fleury squarely in the mix to compete for a full-time role then. If I am correct that Seattle may prefer to get Fleury reps in the AHL this season, could Evans and Fleury both join the NHL team next year, perhaps even as an occasional bottom-line pairing? I could see it.
Beyond Fleury, the team doesn’t have much in the way of NHL-caliber depth at right-handed defense coming up through the system just yet. Ville Ottavainen, Seattle’s fourth-round pick in the 2021 draft, is scheduled to play in North America for the first time this season with the Coachella Valley Firebirds. If he has an impressive season, he could be in the mix. But, typically, even successful prospects on his trajectory take two or more seasons in the minors before breaking through.
Where do the Kraken go from here?
All eyes turn to negotiations with the team’s last restricted free agent, Dunn. He now has an arbitration hearing date set for July 24, so Seattle will be looking to get an extension in place before that date. Aside from that, I suspect Seattle will keep working the phones to monitor opportunities for upgrades via trade.
The Seattle Kraken made two moves on Friday afternoon. First, the team announced it was signing veteran, unrestricted free agent forward Pierre-Édouard Bellemare to a one-year, league minimum $775,000 contract. About an hour later, Elliotte Friedman reported that the team had re-signed restricted free agent defenseman Will Borgen to a two-year, $2.7 million contract. (The Kraken confirmed the signing shortly thereafter.)
The Kraken sign Pierre-Édouard Bellemare to a one-year deal
Bellemare is a 38-year-old, defense-first forward, coming off a down season statistically and analytically. A native of Blanc-Mesnil, France, Bellemare spent much of his twenties playing in Europe in the SHL. He arrived in the NHL in the 2014-2015 season, when he signed a contract with the Philadelphia Flyers. Since then he has logged 660 games played, totaling 60 goals and 71 assists, for Philadelphia, Las Vegas, Colorado, and, most recently, Tampa Bay. He has helped his team deep into the playoffs, making the Stanley Cup Finals twice, once with Las Vegas in 2017-18 and once with Tampa Bay in 2021-22.
In a press release issued with the signing, Kraken GM Ron Francis credited Bellemare as a “hard-working, defensive-minded forward.” Bellemare fits a team need on the depth chart for a bottom line player capable of winning face-offs (51.4% win percentage for his career) and taking penalty kill minutes. “He is effective in the faceoff dot and brings valuable veteran experience,” Francis said.
Bellemare’s effectiveness defensively, including in shorthanded situations, waned last season, and his offensive production fell off drastically. That said, the risk here is minimal. If nothing else, he is a good insurance policy for the team if another stronger option does not present itself before the end of camp. Moreover, his experience and perspective – in the face-off circle, for example – could be a valuable add to the team for however long his tenure may be.
If Bellemare does not make the team, his minimum salary would not have any impact on Seattle’s cap.
The Kraken re-sign Will Borgen to a two-year deal
Borgen, 26, was one of the Seattle Kraken’s original expansion draft picks. He spent much of his first season with the team buried on the depth chart and scratched from the lineup. After the 2022 trade deadline, he assumed a more regular role, and carried over that momentum into the 2022-23 season when he played all 82 regular season and 14 postseason games for Seattle. He has totaled 28 points in 132 career regular season games.
Borgen started this past season on the third defensive pair with Carson Soucy but eventually earned a promotion to the second unit along side Jamie Oleksiak. He was up to the new challenge, for the most part, in 2022-23, but the most intriguing part about Borgen is that there could more upside in his game still. He has played less than 150 total NHL games – a number he may more than double during the term of this new two-year deal. Additional experience could unlock yet more production from Borgen, who is an impressive size and speed athlete with solid puck skills.
Already a stalwart on the Kraken penalty kill, Borgen’s retention feels like a critical piece of business for Seattle, particularly amid rumors that Borgen’s name had come up on the trade market. The average annual value of the deal is much higher than I had predicted based on market comparable research, but it is not difficult to find the argument that he could be worth it, for the reasons I laid out above. And Borgen had leverage. Earlier this week he had exercised his right to have his salary set by arbitration failing an agreement.
For the Kraken, this deal gets them an important piece back, in his prime, and buys out one UFA year at a price that does not break the bank. For Borgen, he gets the security for which he has worked very hard. He’ll make almost as much this year alone as he has made in his career to date. And he’ll get the chance to be unrestricted at age 28 upon this deal’s expiration. If his upward trend continues, he’ll be looking at an even bigger deal then. All things considered, Borgen did very well here.
Where do the Kraken go from here?
Seattle’s focus now turns to reaching deals with their remaining restricted free agents, Vince Dunn, Cale Fleury, and Kole Lind. Dunn is the big one as he is looking for a massive payday. How does that play out? Dunn requested salary arbitration too, as did Fleury. Beyond that, the team has filled all of its obvious “needs.” I anticipate that, following the RFA deals, the Kraken will still have a bit of cap space in reserve for opportunities to upgrade the roster that may present themselves.
