The Seattle Kraken have been active this offseason, making a splash in free agency and shaking up the coaching staff. With the NHL preseason starting in just over a month, we wanted to go over what we expect to see from the Kraken under new bench boss, Dan Bylsma.
Coaching style
Bylsma’s approach to coaching stems from the relationships he is able to build. We often hear that he is well-prepared, direct, and clear in his messaging, and he creates a balance between being firm on what the player needs to do to succeed while keeping the atmosphere light and positive.
One comment we’ve heard on his coaching style is that his offense relies heavily on the stretch pass, where his players leave the defensive zone early and try to receive a long pass for an odd-man rush. This worked in Pittsburgh, where they had highly skilled players, but can the Kraken replicate that success? His time in Coachella Valley showed that he has updated his style to match the players on his team and adopted a similar system to what the Kraken were using under Dave Hakstol. So, perhaps his approach to systems in Seattle will be different to that of his time with the Penguins.
Buzz words
Dan Bylsma’s coaching style is all about a fast north-south transition game. (**Editor’s Note: That is a bit of an inside joke from one of the Sound Of Hockey Patreon Mailbag sessions.)
Thank you to Sound Of Hockey Patreon member Mike N. for submitting a question and triggering this article. Mike asked, “… what should we be looking for when the team takes the ice in preseason?” as well as some definitions for some buzz words around Bylsma’s coaching style. Let’s start with some definitions:
Transition game – How the team moves from defense to offense. Typically, speed and control contribute to a better transition game.
Fast – When mentioned in the same breath as coaching, this typically refers to the pace at which the team gets the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone.
North/South – North is the offensive zone and South is the defensive zone. It involves excelling in both zones and getting up and down the ice quickly. Our own Darren Brown wrote about systems and “playing fast” back in April.
Really, the above words can be used in any combination to describe what any team or coach is trying to do. If there are other buzz words causing confusion, feel free to comment below and we will try to define them.
Indicators of success for Bylsma
Preseason games have a few purposes: one of which is to practice and fine tune for the regular season, and another of which is to determine who makes the final Opening Night roster. And while personnel for NHL teams during preseason can vary dramatically from game to game, we should start to get a glimpse at Bylsma’s strategies during these games, as his players put systematic tweaks into practice. Here’s what we will be looking for in these games.
Dan Bylsma (Photo/Brian Liesse)
North/South
North (offense)
The No. 1 goal for the Kraken this season should be to increase scoring if they are to have any success. Seattle was 29th in the NHL in goals scored in 2023-24. This can be tracked simply by looking at the goals scored per game, but this does not take into account the quality of opponent. Another statistic to consider is high-danger shots. Seattle was also 29th in the NHL for high-danger shots at 252 during the 2023-24 season, per Moneypuck.com, which tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots.
For the eye test folks, you will want to watch if the Kraken are getting shots from between the face-off dots. Under Hakstol, the Kraken played a possession game and cycled the puck along the boards looking for an opening to get the puck into the high-danger areas. Many of their shots, though, ended up coming from the points when they struggled to get pucks to the middle. We do not expect the approach to change dramatically, but watch if the Kraken are able to get the puck off the boards more frequently.
Another big part of offensive success comes from the power play. New assistant coach Bob Woods will be in charge of running the power play with Jessica Campbell also providing guidance. The Kraken have seen improvement year-over-year with the power play, topping out at 20.7 percent last season. This ranked the Kraken in the middle of the NHL, but continued improvement will be welcomed. Seattle has upgraded personnel for this area as well with the additions of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, so perhaps these changes will give the team a boost with the manpower advantage.
Read more about the Kraken power play in an article by our own John Barr. Once again, it’s important to focus on where the shots are being taken; more shots from within the face-off dots will lead to more offensive success.
South (defense)
There is not much to change on the south end of the ice, as the Kraken were eighth best in the league in goals against with 232. Out of the top 10 teams in goals against, the Kraken were the only team to not make the postseason. With the addition of Montour and the expectation that Ryker Evans makes the Kraken full-time this year, it does seem to shift the mindset of the D corps to lean more offensive, so it will be interesting to see how Seattle’s play in its own end evolves.
Moneypuck.com also tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots against. The Seattle Kraken were No. 1 in the NHL for allowing the fewest high-danger shots against (239), second at medium-danger shots (577), and 19th at low-danger shots (2727). This highlights that under Hakstol, the Kraken would give teams shots from low-percentage areas but really protected the more dangerous areas. If the Kraken are to continue their defensive effectiveness, watch for shots against to continue coming from the perimeter and from farther away from the net.
Fast transition game (controlled zone entries versus dump and chase)
The first few years of Kraken hockey featured a primarily dump-and-chase style. The Kraken would shoot the puck deep into the offensive zone and then use a forecheck to control it. The jury is still out on whether this was Hakstol’s preferred way to gain the zone or the best he could do it with the players he was given. Hakstol’s approach was partly defensive as well, as the other team cannot score if the puck is in their defensive zone. Bylsma will face similar personnel challenges, as the Kraken still lack elite offensive punch.
There has been a lot of research on the benefits of controlled zone entries. Research by Eric Tulsky and Thibaud Chatel is a good place to start if you want some additional reading. To summarize, successful controlled zone entries lead to a two-fold increase in shots on goal compared to dump and chase. This is something else to keep in mind while watching the games to determine if the Kraken tend to carry the puck into the zone or use a dump-and-chase approach. This will continue to evolve into the regular season as other NHL teams finalize their rosters and tweak their defensive play.
Players to watch
There are many interesting players to watch during training camp and preseason. We’ve divided these players into three groups: new free agents, Coachella Valley Firebirds, and players returning to junior hockey.
Two players new to Coach Bylsma’s system are free-agent signings Stephenson and Montour. Both are expected to be key contributors on the Kraken’s top lines. Identifying their linemates and seeing how on-ice chemistry develops during preseason will be a crucial storyline to follow.
Joining a new team as a free agent can be a rocky road for some players, so getting off to a good start will be important for these two players, who will face plenty of expectations to produce right away.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
From the 2023-24 Firebirds roster, two players stand out: Shane Wright and Ryker Evans. They are widely expected to make the Kraken roster full-time this year. Evans played 36 games with the Kraken last year and 25 games with the Firebirds, and with how the roster is now shaped, the organization is clearly expecting him to be with the big club. It will be interesting to watch how these two slot into the lineup and whether they look like they can keep up with NHL-level talent during the course of a full season.
Beyond these two players, there is a group of players getting closer, but who we expect to play for Coachella Valley this year. This group will be eager to show how they have improved during Training Camp. While this is not an exhaustive list, these are players we will be monitoring closely in preseason.
Logan Morrison
Ryan Winterton
Lleyton Roed
Tucker Robertson
Jacob Melanson
Ville Ottavainen
Jani Nyman
Jagger Firkus
David Goyette
Ty Nelson
Watching how long these players stick around during camp can be an indicator of how well they are performing and how they are perceived by the Kraken. There is still at least a roster spot or two to be had, so while we don’t *expect* these players to make the team full-time, it can happen.
Look no further than Tye Kartye, who made the most of his opportunity during the 2022-23 playoffs and then continued to impress in training camp to secure his spot on the roster. Even if none of these players make the team out of camp, this is a great chance to get a glimpse of the Kraken’s future while they play against elevated talent. They also may be call-ups in the event of injuries.
Players returning to juniors
Some of the top prospects in the Kraken organization are 19 or younger and not eligible to play in the AHL. These players either have to make the Kraken full-time or be returned to the CHL.
Carson Rehkopf
Berkly Catton
Eduard Sale*
It is a long shot for Rehkopf or Catton to make the roster for the full season, but if they put on a strong showing in rookie/training camp and preseason, they could stick around for up to nine games in the regular season. After that point, their entry-level contracts are no longer slide-eligible, meaning playing more NHL games would burn the first year of their entry-level contracts. Watching how these players are fitting in and hanging with legitimate NHL players provides a preview of the future.
Sale has an asterisk next to his name because it is unclear where he will play this year. Since he was playing in the Czech Extraliga when Seattle drafted the right winger, he is eligible to play for the Firebirds this year. At 19, he is also eligible to play in the CHL. The case for him playing with the Firebirds is strengthened by his 12 points in 10 games during the OHL playoffs, but he still hasn’t hit the level of production expected of a first-round draft pick. Additionally, Rehkopf was traded to the Brampton Steelheads, so Sale no longer has a fellow Kraken prospect with him in Kitchener.
While this is just speculation, with 38 points in 49 games in the CHL, returning to the Kitchener Rangers feels like the most likely destination for Sale.
#OHLRangers have completed a trade with the Brampton Steelheads
This article was inspired by one of our Patreon Mailbags. Thank you, Mike N., for the question and your support. (**Editor’s note: If you aren’t already a Patreon subscriber, you can become one today!). If you have any questions or comments please leave them below. You can follow me on the X at @blaizg.
On Sunday, the Seattle Kraken announced the signing of 2024 third-round draft pick Kim Saarinen to an entry-level contract. That deal brought the team’s total number of NHL contracts to 50.
If this number rings a bell for you, it’s probably because you’ve heard mention of the “50-Contract Rule,” which limits how many players a team can have signed at any one time.
What is this rule, and what does it mean that Seattle now has 50 NHL contracts? Even the most dedicated fan would be forgiven for not knowing the nuances of this rule.
This is because discussion of the 50-Contract Rule typically lacks important context. Head over to the Seattle Kraken page on Puckpedia, for example, and you’ll see a simple note that Seattle has now used all 50 contract slots for the 2024-25 season. Is this true? Not really. What does it mean that Seattle has 50 NHL contracts? Puckpedia and other public resources don’t provide that answer. (To be fair, CapFriendly did not provide useful context either before it shuttered earlier this month.)
To make matters worse, even if the industrious fan sought out the source rule in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”), the fan would likely come away with an incorrect understanding of how the 50-Contract Rule operates in practice. NHL teams actually follow a shadow rule—or, at least, a strained interpretation of the words in the CBA. Of course, this contributes to the flawed public discourse.
So, let’s dive into this sometimes-mentioned, rarely-explained 50-Contract Rule and consider what it means for the Kraken roster-building options moving forward.
The Kraken have 50 NHL contracts
Following Seattle’s initial wave of free agent signings at the beginning of the month, the team had 47 NHL contracts on the books for the 2024-25 season. Then, on July 5, the Kraken signed restricted free agent Eeli Tolvanen and 2024 first-round pick Berkly Catton to NHL deals, and, on July 14, the team signed Saarinen. This brought Seattle’s NHL contract total to 50.
Are the Kraken now hamstrung from signing any more NHL contracts this offseason? If so, does this mean that the team will have to trade (or terminate) a contract simply to sign a deal with unsigned restricted free agent Matty Beniers?
The answer is no, but let’s find out why.
The 50-Contract Rule explained
Under the CBA, an NHL team may have a maximum of 90 players on its “Reserve List” at any time. A team’s Reserve List includes all players signed to standard NHL player contracts (“SPC”) as well as all unsigned NHL Draft choices during the time period the team retains exclusive NHL negotiating rights with the player.
Below the 90-player overall limit, the CBA provides that a team is allowed “not more than 50 players signed to an SPC.” This is the “50-Contract Rule.”
Unsigned players or players who have signed a contract directly with an AHL or ECHL affiliate do not count toward this 50-contract limit. As of the posting of this article, Beniers has not agreed to a contract for the 2024-25 season, so he does not count under the 50-Contract Rule. Likewise, recent Kraken Development Camp invitee Landon McCallum does not count because he signed an AHL contract directly with the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
With respect to existing NHL contracts, though, the 50-Contract Rule is subject to only one exception: “Age 18 and age 19 players who were returned to Juniors, and who have not played 11 NHL Games in one season, shall be exempt from inclusion in the 50 Player limit” (the “Juniors Exemption”). Separately, the CBA defines the word “Juniors” to mean the major junior leagues in the Canadian Hockey League.
Based on this black-and-white CBA language, one might reasonably conclude that an 18- or 19-year-old player becomes exempt from the 50-Contract Rule only after the player is returned to a CHL team to play the season. If the player has not yet been returned or the player is returned to play in some other non-CHL league, he is not exempt.
In reality, it doesn’t work that way.
Here is how the Juniors Exemption actually works: Signed 18- or 19 year-old players are, from the moment their contracts go into effect, exempt from the 50-Contract Rule unless and until the player is placed on an active professional (i.e., NHL, AHL, or ECHL) roster. This would typically happen coming out of NHL training camp. If the player is not added to a professional roster and instead returns to play with any other club team, the player continues to be exempt from the 50-Contract Rule.
If an 18- or 19-year-old player remains on the NHL roster to begin a year, the player counts against the limit, but could regain the exemption if returned to the player’s other club before playing 11 NHL games. For example, Shane Wright counted against Seattle’s 50-contract limit to begin the 2022-23 season, but became exempt again when he was assigned back to the CHL after having played only eight NHL games.
Finally, the Juniors Exemption applies to all 18- or 19-year-old players who have been or could be returned to other leagues, not just the CHL. For example, Oscar Fisker-Molgaard’s contract is exempt during the 2024 offseason even though he would be returned to the 2024-25 season in the SHL, the top-level professional league in Sweden.
The Kraken have room to sign Beniers or other NHL contracts
The Kraken have seven 18- or 19-year-old players who fall within the Juniors Exemption to the 50-Contract Rule:
Carson Rehkopf (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
Eduard Sale (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
Lukas Dragicevic (Tri-City Americans, WHL)
Caden Price (Kelowna Rockets, WHL)
Berkly Catton (Spokane Chiefs, WHL)
Oscar Fisker Molgaard (HV71, SHL)
Kim Saarinen (HPK, Liiga)
Accordingly, contrary to what one would reasonably surmise from PuckPedia, it is fairer to say the Kraken are currently at 43 of 50 non-exempt NHL contracts under the 50-Contract Rule.
There is an outside possibility that Rehkopf or Catton could earn an extended look on the Kraken roster this fall after training camp—which would, at least temporarily, end their exemptions. But the most likely outcome is that all these exemptions will persist into the 2024-25 season.
The team will want to leave itself flexibility for in-season additions if the NHL roster is struck by injuries or performance declines. But with spots open for seven more NHL contracts, the team has more than enough room to sign Beniers and add a minimum-salary veteran free-agent scorer before the season, should it desire to do so.
It is good to have that option open to add another NHL contract rather than being hemmed against the limit. An NHL contract is always going to be more appealing to a free agent than an AHL offer or an invite to camp on a professional tryout agreement, for example.
Kraken contracts corner
We put out a call on Twitter for contract or CBA minutiae you’d like to see addressed in future posts. The 50-Contract Rule analysis was inspired by one such question. Continue to send questions our way on Twitter or in the comments below. In the meantime, here are a few more Kraken contract quick hits:
1. Future contracts and the 50-Contract Rule
One other important point of clarification when counting contracts under the 50-Contract Rule: A contract signed for a future season only counts against the limit during the league year when the contract actually begins, not at the time it is signed. For example, Lleyton Roed signed an entry-level contract with the Kraken on March 29, 2024, which began with the 2024-25 season. Thus, his contract counted against the limit only as of July 1, 2024, the first day of the 2024-25 league year, not earlier.
2. Draft picks and the Reserve List
The time period of exclusive control over a drafted but unsigned player varies depending on where the player was drafted from. To date, Seattle has lost exclusive negotiating rights to only one drafted player, Kyle Jackson. The signing deadlines for Seattle’s other drafted prospects are as follows:
3. Saarinen signing breaks new ground
Returning to where we began, the Saarinen signing is intriguing even in isolation. The team got a close look at the 6-foot-4 Finnish goaltender earlier this month at Kraken Development Camp. And, after that viewing, the Kraken decided to make Saarinen the first Seattle draft pick selected outside the first round to sign an NHL contract during the summer of his draft year. Saarinen also hops over two earlier-drafted goalies, countryman Visa Vedenpaa and Russian Semyon Vyazovoi, in earning a contract. Fair or not, this puts added focus on him for this coming season.
4. Qualifying offers and the timeline to sign Beniers
On June 30, the Seattle Kraken extended Matty Beniers a “qualifying offer.” Based on the formula in the CBA, the offer was a one-year, one-way deal worth $874,125. That process was merely a formality, though. Beniers was never going to accept that deal. The Kraken offered it because they were required to do so in order to retain Beniers’ restricted free agent rights.
The keen observer will note that Beniers’ qualifying offer may have expired at 2:00 pm PT yesterday, July 15. That is the default deadline for expiry of qualifying offers in the CBA (though a team can theoretically extend the deadline).
What does it mean if Beniers’ qualifying offer expired? Nothing really. The team and the player continue to negotiate directly on a contract. Since Beneirs does not have enough professional experience (four seasons) to qualify for salary arbitration under the CBA, the rarely-used “offer sheet” from another team is the only alternative available to the player.
I’ve seen questions about the timeline for resolution on Beniers’ contract. Typically, the salary arbitration procedure creates deadlines throughout the offseason that spur restricted free agent deals. But, as mentioned, Beniers does not yet have arbitration rights, so the sides cannot rely on that framework. Instead, they are left to negotiate without any specific offseason deadlines.
I’d imagine the team will do everything it can to get Beniers’ contract resolved before training camp—particularly since Beniers remains the face of the young organization. And it could be much sooner. Quentin Byfield, a player in a similar situation to Beniers, just signed a deal with the Los Angeles Kings on July 15. Last year, the Kraken signed (arbitration-eligible) Vince Dunn on July 21.
5. AHL eligibility under the CHL Transfer Agreement
Another question I often see on Twitter asks which Kraken prospects from the CHL are eligible to play in the AHL this coming year. For background, see this earlier post on the CHL Transfer Agreement when looking at Shane Wright’s situation.
In short, a player drafted from the CHL must be 20 years old by Dec. 31, 2024, in order to be eligible to be assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds for the 2024-25 season. If the player is younger than that, he must be offered back to his Junior team if he does not make the NHL roster out of training camp. The following signed prospects are eligible for an AHL assignment this year:
David Goyette (DOB: March 27, 2004)
Ty Nelson (DOB: March 30, 2004)
Jagger Firkus (DOB: April 29, 2004)
Additionally, Eduard Sale (DOB: March 10, 2005) is eligible because, technically, he was playing in the Czech Elite League when he was drafted, so the CHL Transfer Agreement does not apply to him. Sale has been playing in the CHL’s Ontario Hockey League since Seattle selected him in the 2023 NHL Draft. Andrei Loshko (DOB: Oct. 7, 2005) would also be eligible to play in the AHL if he signs a contract, but he is currently unsigned. Tyson Jugnauth (DOB: April 17, 2004) is also age-eligible, though the CHL Transfer Agreement doesn’t apply because he was drafted out of the BCHL.
Conversely, the following CHL players, though signed to NHL contracts, are ineligible for an AHL assignment absent an extraordinary exception or one-off agreement:
Carson Rehkopf (DOB: Jan. 7, 2005)
Lukas Dragicevic (DOB: Apr. 25, 2005)
Caden Price (DOB: Aug. 24, 2005)
Berkly Catton (DOB: Jan. 14, 2006)
6. AHL signings bring clarity to the depth chart
On July 12, the Coachella Valley Firebirds reportedly agreed to terms with four players.
Hearing the Coachella Valley @Firebirds have re-signed several depth pieces from last season's squad to AHL deals for 2024-25, including:
Kraken GM Ron Francis had indicated previously that he believed LaFontaine would return. These players join 20-year-old forward Landon McCallum as players reportedly signing AHL contracts with the Firebirds for the 2024-25 season. All of these additions qualify as “developmental” players (or are otherwise exempt) under the “Veteran Rule” at the AHL level.
I currently have the following players projected to compete for AHL roster spots:
Looking at the depth chart, there may be room to add one more piece on the blue line, perhaps even a high-end “veteran” piece. But, otherwise, the depth chart is looking fairly set.
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
On Tuesday, the Seattle Kraken announced the trade of defenseman Brian Dumoulin to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Anaheim’s 2026 fourth-round draft pick. Dumoulin, who signed a two-year contract with the Kraken on July 1, 2023, with an annual cap hit of $3.15 million, played 80 games during the 2023-24 season, scoring six goals and adding 10 assists.
Why did Seattle trade Dumoulin? How do we evaluate the move, and what does it mean for Seattle’s offseason plans? Let’s dive in.
Dumoulin played a valuable role for the Kraken
Before discussing team dynamics, it’s important to note Dumoulin’s solid performance for a Kraken team that fell short of expectations last season. Although he faced initial challenges upon joining the Kraken, Dumoulin quickly established himself as a valuable asset.
Just how valuable was he? While Dumoulin achieved a career high in goals (six), his true impact lies beyond the score sheet. As a defensive defenseman, his effectiveness is measured by how well he suppresses opponent opportunities and shifts momentum in Seattle’s favor.
He excelled in this role last year. According to HockeyViz, with Dumoulin on the ice, the Kraken suppressed opponent shot quality by 11 percent above average. Additionally, the team generated 54.5 percent of the overall shot quality during 5-on-5 play with Dumoulin on the ice, per Natural Stat Trick. Among regular lineup players, none achieved a higher expected goals-for percentage. These on-ice results translated into success; Dumoulin ranked third on the team in on-ice plus-minus at +3, while the team as a whole was at -19.
Although primarily deployed as a third-pair defenseman, Dumoulin earned trust from the coaching staff and often stepped up when injuries required it.
Kraken free agent additions dictate a roster move
Why, then, did Seattle trade Dumoulin if he played such a crucial defensive role? The team’s recent signings in free agency necessitated a move to manage its salary cap.
Shortly after free agency opened on July 1, 2024, the Kraken announced a seven-year contract with defenseman Brandon Montour, averaging $7.14 million annually. This brought the number of established NHL defensemen on the roster to seven: Montour, Dumoulin, Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson, Jamie Oleksiak, Will Borgen, and Ryker Evans.
Within hours, center Chandler Stephenson was also signed to a seven-year deal with an average annual value of $6.25 million. These contracts marked the largest total-value signings in Seattle’s or any Ron Francis-managed team’s history.
Assuming Shane Wright and Evans make the team, these signings left the Kraken with approximately $8.25 million in cap space, with 10 forwards and seven defensemen already signed. Qualified restricted free agents Eeli Tolvanen and Matty Beniers, who are yet to sign, will bring the total number of forwards to 12 once their contracts are finalized.
Here are some possible contracts for Tolvanen and Beniers from two prominent contract projections:
Considering Beniers’ decreased point production in the 2023-24 season, most analysts predict a shorter, so-called “bridge” deal. Using the data points above, a reasonable estimate for a bridge deal might be a three-year, $4.6 million AAV contract.
As for Tolvanen, the prevailing wisdom favors a multi-year deal with an expected cap hit in the $3 million to $4 million range. Let’s use a three-year, $4 million AAV contract as a placeholder for Tolvanen.
If Beniers and Tolvanen were added to Seattle’s salary cap table after their spending spree in free agency, the team would already exceed the cap, even without a 13th (or 14th) forward on the roster.
Even a shorter-term deal for Tolvanen, such as a one-year contract at $3.2 million, would leave insufficient room to add a full-time 13th forward. Something had to give.
The team’s decision to trade Dumoulin
Kraken general manager Ron Francis met with the media after the Montour and Stephenson signings on Monday, July 1. When he was asked if the signings would necessitate further moves, Francis said: “[N]ot at this point,” before noting that “[i]t will depend on… talks … with Matty [Beniers] and [Eeli] Tolvanen.” Any subsequent moves will “depend on where those [contracts] come in… But we have looked at a lot of different scenarios and we feel comfortable we will be under the cap and ready to go when the season starts.”
When Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown asked Francis what he thought of a crowded seven-player blue line, Francis answered “that’s what training camp is for.” Francis continued: “We carry seven normally all season long. So, we felt comfortable with our six before today, and now we feel really good about our seven.”
We were cautious taking these comments at face value, suspecting that disclosing a tight financial position during negotiations could weaken the team’s bargaining stance.
Lo and behold, less than 24 hours later, Seattle announced Dumoulin’s trade to Anaheim, effectively clearing their defensive logjam and fixing their cap situation. With Dumoulin’s $3.15 million cap hit off the books, the team now had $11.4 million in cap space to accommodate Beniers, Tolvanen, and potentially add a 13th forward and seventh defenseman.
Other potential trade candidates, such as Will Borgen ($2.7 million AAV) or Adam Larsson ($4 million AAV), were less straightforward solutions for Seattle’s roster needs. The team likely values them higher and prefers to either retain or trade them under more favorable circumstances. Alternatively, trading a forward like Brandon Tanev ($3.5 million AAV) without a ready replacement could have simply traded one problem for another by creating a new roster vacancy.
Completing the Kraken roster
The cap picture is much clearer following the Dumoulin trade. Allocating $8.6 million total to Beniers and Tolvanen based on our calculations above, the team could then easily add one depth forward and one depth defenseman on minimum contracts and remain under the cap. Consider the following scenario where John Hayden and Cale Fleury assume those roles:
Alternatively, on July 1, the Kraken signed 25-year-old forward Ben Meyers to a one-year contract at a $775,000 cap hit. Bringing six goals in 67 games of NHL experience, Meyers should compete with Hayden to stick with the team as a 13th forward.
On the blue line, the Kraken signed 26-year-old, left-shot defenseman Josh Mahura to an identical one-year, $775,000 minimum contract on July 3. Mahura has 191 games of NHL experience. He was a full-time, third-pair defender for the Florida Panthers in 2022-23, and continued in that role to begin 2023-24 before a lower-body injury knocked him out of the lineup, and he shifted down the depth chart in favor of other options. Mahura should compete with Fleury for the depth defenseman role.
Evaluating the Dumoulin trade
Given Dumoulin’s strong performance in Seattle and reasonable contract term, some might question why the Kraken didn’t secure a better return in the trade. Recent trade trends indicate that deals around this time of year often prioritize cap management over maximizing player value. The Kraken took advantage of that dynamic when it came to acquiring Oliver Brjorkstrand, but were on the other side of it this time.
Here are the completed player-for-pick trades just before or during the first 10 days of free agency over the last three years:
July 2, 2024: Seattle trades LD Brian Dumoulin to Anaheim for a 2026 fourth-round pick.
July 1, 2024: Pittsburgh trades F Reilly Smith (plus salary retention) to New York Rangers for 2025 fifth-round pick and 2027 second-round pick.
June 30, 2024: Montreal trades RD Johnathan Kovacevic to New Jersey for a 2026 fourth-round pick.
July 2, 2023: Tampa Bay trades F Patrick Maroon (plus 20 percent salary retention) to Minnesota for a 2026 seventh-round pick.
July 1, 2023: Dallas trades LD Colin Miller to New Jersey for a 2025 fifth-round pick.
July 1, 2023: Montreal trades Joel Edmundson (plus 50 percent salary retention) to Washington for 2024 third- and seventh-round picks.
July 22, 2022: Columbus trades F Oliver Bjorkstrand to Seattle for 2023 third- and fourth-round picks.
July 13, 2022: Ottawa trades F Connor Brown to Washington for a 2024 second-round pick.
Kovacevic is the most recent comparable for the Dumoulin deal. Kovacevic is a 26-year-old, 6-foot-5, right-shot defenseman who played 62 NHL games in 2022-23 in a third-pair role, tallying 13 points. He is also cheaper than Dumoulin, with just a $766,667 cap hit for one year. Dumoulin is a better player, no doubt, but it is easy to see how the other factors could even out the value based on the acquiring team’s need. Add in that San Jose’s 2026 fourth-round pick is likely to be a better pick than the one secured for Kovacevic return, and the deals look roughly similar.
The 2023 Joel Edmunson trade may be the closest fit in terms of player profile traded in our sample. The return was slightly better in that case, but I attribute that to Montreal’s $1,750,000 salary retention. Edmunson cost Washington approximately half what Dumoulin will cost against the cap.
The 2023 Colin Miller trade is another comparable deal. Again, Dumoulin is the better player, but Miller was cheaper ($1.85 million AAV for one-year), and he brought a lesser return.
All told, it appears Seattle took a trade in line with what might be expected on the market.
Importantly, Seattle avoided a scenario where they would need to sweeten the deal with prospects or draft picks to move Dumoulin’s contract, similar to Detroit’s experience with Jake Walman, who had two years at $3.4 million average annual value remaining on his deal. Detroit sent a second-round pick to San Jose to facilitate Walman’s trade due to cap constraints.
Revisiting Soucy vs. Dumoulin a year later
All of this made me recall the decision faced by Seattle last offseason whether to re-sign Carson Soucy or sign Brian Dumoulin. Opting for the latter, the team underscored that the shorter term accepted by Dumoulin was important to avoid blocking Ryker Evans. Leap to today, and Evans is ready for the NHL, has a clear path to a role, and the Kraken have a minor draft asset for their troubles.
If the team had instead signed Soucy to the same contract he took in Vancouver, the Kraken would have a player with two years remaining at a $3.25 million annual cap hit. If Soucy had experienced a similarly injury-plagued season in Seattle as he did in Vancouver, moving him may have incurred costs akin to Detroit’s situation with Walman.
Final takeaways
The Dumoulin trade was a necessary step to navigate Seattle’s cap situation while finalizing contracts with restricted free agents Beniers and Tolvanen. Given their current cap space, the deal does not portend additional acquisitions, beyond depth signings, unless the Kraken move out additional existing player contracts in the interim.
Could Seattle have secured a better return for Dumoulin if it had more cap flexibility to hold onto him? Perhaps, but the team prioritized securing targeted players in free agency, placing them in a weaker bargaining position during trade negotiations amidst a depressed summer trade market. In this context, the trade appears fair and aligned with market norms.
* * *
What do you think about the Dumoulin trade and the rest of Seattle’s offseason moves? Do you think the Kraken are done? Do you have anything else you’d like to see the team do? Are the Kraken a better team heading into the 2024-25 season? Let us know in the comments below or X, formerly known as Twitter, @sound_hockey and @deepseahockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Welcome to the Sound Of Hockey NHL Draft Live Blog. Assuming no trades, the Kraken will have eight draft picks today. We will continue to add information about their selections here throughout the day. The most recent updates will appear at the top, so scroll down to see earlier news. If you want to catch up on the Kraken’s first-round selection of Berkly Catton, check out Curtis Isacke’s breakdown here or Cameron Rigger’s profile on Catton from back in February.
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12:39 PM
That wraps up the 2024 NHL Draft. The Kraken ended up with eight picks in total. As a reminder, most of the players will be in Seattle this week as part of the Seattle Kraken Development Camp. Keep an eye on SoundOfHockey.com for deeper draft analysis and dev camp coverage.
Additionally, free agency opens Monday morning, and we anticipate some aggressive moves by the Kraken. We will cover it all right here.
12:22 PM
It appears the Seattle Kraken are done of the day. Here is how their picks shook out at the 2024 NHL Draft.
Here’s how Round 7 played out.
12:12 PM
Assuming no more trades, the Seattle Kraken use their last pick on defenseman Jakub Fibigr from the Mississauga Steelheads in the OHL. Fibigr is from Czechia but played his draft year in North America. Let’s let him give you his own scouting report and a bit more info on his background.
12:05 PM
Home stretch for the draft. Here are the results from Round 6.
11:55 AM
Everett Silvertips defenseman Eric Jamieson was selected by the Calgary Flames with their sixth-round pick. Jamieson is the third Silvertip to be selected so far.
11:35 AM
Round 5 is in the books. Lots of WHL players selected in this round.
11:19 AM
With that newly acquired selection, the Kraken have taken Clarke Caswell from the Swift Current Broncos. This was their fourth selection from the WHL this draft. This seems like a good value pick, as Caswell was ranked 79th on the SOH Big Board.
The #SeaKraken have acquired the 141st-overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft from the Florida Panthers in exchange for Seattle’s 169th and 201st picks in this year’s draft.
— Seattle Kraken PR (@SeattleKrakenPR) June 29, 2024
11:18 AM
The Kraken made a trade to move up in the draft. They traded their sixth-round pick (169) and seventh-round pick (201) for Florida’s fifth-round pick (141).
11:01 AM
With the addition of center Oliver Josephson, the Kraken have now selected 15 centers since they came into the league. This is the second-most centers selected by any team since 2021, behind only the Chicago Blackhawks, who have taken 17. Several of these players will be converted to wing should they make the NHL, but it is an interesting data point in the Kraken’s draft strategy.
10:58 AM
Here are the results from Round 4.
10:24 AM
The Seattle Kraken selected another center, Oliver Josephson, with their fourth-round selection. Josephson is another shutdown-type forward. He plays for Red Deer in the WHL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to see him roll through Washington State when Red Deer plays the US teams.
10:20 AM
Round 3 is a wrap.
10:05 AM
With the 88th overall pick, the Kraken selected goalie Kim Saarinen from the HPK U20 team. Saarinen was predicted by Curtis in his Seattle Kraken mock draft earlier this week. This is the third Finnish goalie the team has selected over the last three drafts.
9:45 AM
With their first selection in the third round, the Seattle Kraken select defenseman Alexis Bernier from Baie-Comeau Drakkar of the QMJHL. This is the first defenseman the Kraken have selected.
Ma révélation québécoise des dernières semaines chez les espoirs 2024: Alexis Bernier, du @DrakkarBAC.
Il vient d'inscrire son 4e de la saison sur cette magnifique séquence.
With their second selection of the second round and 63rd overall, the Seattle Kraken selected centerman Nathan Villeneuve from the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL. As you might recall, one of Seattle’s top prospects, David Goyette, also played with Sudbury this season.
“Villeneuve’s a feisty, high-pace attacker with a lockdown defensive game. When he’s not throwing hits and winning battles, he’s eliminating off-puck threats and pickpocketing the puck carrier. When the puck arrives on his stick, he instantly takes the middle or starts a give-and-go to attack the zone with speed.” – Elite Prospects
9:15 AM
Another trade. We identified Tanner Jeannot as a good trade target for the Seattle Kraken, and at this price, it seemed reasonable, but it was not meant to be.
Utah acquired defenseman Mikhail Sergachev from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for defenseman JJ Moser, center Conor Geekie, a 2025 second-round pick, and their 2024 seventh-round pick (No. 199 overall).
Utah also acquired defenseman John Marino from New Jersey in exchange for their 49th overall pick of the 2024 Draft and a 2025 second-round pick.
8:45 AM
The Seattle Kraken selected Julius Miettinen from the Everett Silvertips. Miettinen, an import from Finland, is known as a strong two-way center. He really shined in the back half of the season with Everett.
We also got a few firsts in the 2024 Draft. The first Swedish player was selected 35th overall, and the first goalie of the draft, Ilya Nabokov, was taken 38th overall.
8:30 AM – Round 2
Let’s begin Day 2! The Kraken will be selecting 40th and 63rd in this round.
8:00 AM
The Kraken will start the day with eight picks remaining in the 2024 NHL draft.
A couple things from Round 1 that I wanted to call out from yesterday before we get going:
For the third time ever, NCAA players went first and second overall in the NHL Draft. The last time this happened was in 2021 when Owen Power and Matty Beniers were selected back-to-back. The only other time was in 2000 when Rick DiPietro and Dany Heatley went first and second, respectively.
The run on defensemen did not occur as early as many analysts predicted. Most people expected a group of blueliners to start hearing their names called around the fifth overall pick.
This is the first time since 2010 that no Swedes were taken in the first round. Last year, six Swedes were selected on Day 1 of the draft, including second overall Leo Carlsson.
The 19 Canadian players selected in the first round Friday tied a mark set in 2020 for the most Canadians selected in the first round.
Here are the full results of the first round:
On a personal note, Marshawn Lynch is probably my favorite athlete of all-time.
This is follow-up to a recent Sound Of Hockey article where we sat down with the Seattle Kraken Ice Breakers to better understand the role they play at Kraken games. There was one question around the science behind scraping the ice that got me wondering how much of an impact ice scrapes have on NHL games, so we are going to dig into the statistics of goals scored following ice scrapes to see if we can uncover anything interesting.
Here was the question:
Blaiz Grubic: Is there any science behind scraping the ice or a benefit to gameplay?
Kevin Ruuhela: If there is a science to it, I’m not aware of it, but from personal experience playing hockey since about the age of six, I know that the puck moves much more smoothly and consistently on ice without snow. When there are patches of snow, the puck can sometimes abruptly change speed on you and throw you off. I also know that goalies typically prefer less snow so there’s less material to get in their eyes from sticks and skates as players move around the crease.
To summarize Kevin’s answer and take it a bit farther, I came up with the following very simple theory:
Playing on smoother ice should increase scoring.
Let’s see how the statistics align with this theory.
Approach
For this data analysis, only even-strength goals (five-on-five) were reviewed. This removes any advantage a team might have and focuses on an even playing surface. Ice time was separated into two buckets:
Fresh Ice – I’m defining this as the 150 seconds following an ice scrape or period start. The period start is included, as the ice has been freshly resurfaced.
Rough Ice – Time accrued after the initial 150 seconds until the next fresh ice event.
150 seconds was chosen because, per Ruuhela, there are three planned ice scrapes during each period. Since each period starts with freshly Zambonied ice, there are a total of four fresh ice events. Two minutes and 30 seconds (or 150 seconds) multiplied by the four fresh ice events equals 10 minutes of fresh ice and 10 minutes of rough ice per period. Assuming there are no advantages given to teams during even-strength play, goals should be scored at a linear rate to the time on ice.
Here is a breakdown of how a period splits into the two buckets of ice:
In reality, ice scrapes are delayed or missed, so the actual percentages of time on fresh versus rough ice are not exactly 50 percent each. Actual percentages came out to 46.86 percent for fresh ice and 53.14 percent for rough ice.
Data was analyzed for the past three seasons for all NHL teams. In total, 3,936 games and 16,250 even-strength goals were reviewed.
Analysis
To prove the theory, there should be more fresh ice goals than rough ice goals. What the data shows is the opposite, and a reduction in goals is observed following a fresh ice event.
The above chart is a bit hard to interpret, so let me try to provide some context. It is showing that 34.36 percent of the game, the ice is fresh following an ice scrape, but only 31.10 percent of goals are scored during this time. On the other hand, the ice is rough 53.14 percent of the time, and 56.52 percent of the goals are scored in these periods. Goal scoring on freshly Zambonied ice is almost linearly equal with 12.50 percent of the time accounting for 12.38 percent of the goals.
The total for fresh ice time is 46.86 percent of games, and 43.48 percent of 5-on-5 goals are scored during these periods.
Overall, there was a 6.76 percent swing between fresh ice scoring and rough ice scoring over the past three seasons. This means offense is up when the ice is rough and down after a fresh ice event.
Here are the raw data:
5v5 Goals
Time in Minutes
Delta
Fresh Ice – Period start
2,012 (12.38%)
29,520 (12.50%)
-0.12%
Fresh Ice – After Scrape
5,054 (31.10%)
81,151.67 (34.36%)
-3.26%
Rough Ice
9,184 (56.52%)
125,488.33 (53.14%)
+3.38%
Totals
16,250
236,160
Goaltending
Remember, this is only looking at 5-on-5 goals, so no empty netters or power-play goals are included. Seeing that goal scoring is down following a fresh ice event got me thinking about goalie save percentage. Following similar logic, I analyzed the shot data for the 2023-24 NHL season to calculate league-wide goalie save percentage for even-strength play on rough and fresh ice.
Sure enough, the goaltenders see a boost in save percentage following a fresh ice event. I am speculating here, but for similar reasons we theorized that scoring would be up due to smoother ice. The goaltenders could be even more of a benefactor of smooth ice, as puck movement is more predictable.
Conclusion
This was a fun project, and I was surprised by the results. There is probably more to dig into here, because one thing I thought of is that even after a scrape by the ice crew, the playing surface is certainly smoother at the beginning of a period and following resurfacing than it is at the end. So, perhaps all “fresh” and “rough” ice is not created equal.
Still, in all my years of watching and playing hockey, I have always thought the opposite to be true, that when the ice had received some sort of attention either from the ice crew or from the Zamboni, teams would score more. There was a lot more data collected than presented here, but to quickly summarize it, shots, turnovers, various fresh ice time intervals, and regulation goals in all situations were factored in and showed the same result. There is a reduction in scoring and a boost to goaltending save percentage following an ice scrape.
If you have any questions or thoughts please comment below. You can follow @blaizg on x.com.
The NHL free agency period will open on July 1, and NHL teams will be tempted to sign blue-chip free agents who become available. The allure of acquiring top-tier talent through a big-money contract can be irresistible, and while the Kraken’s options might be limited this offseason, they will still need to weigh the risks and future contributions of signing one of these top available players. The critical question remains: is spending a substantial portion of the salary cap on one superstar truly worth it?
In this post, we will delve into the intricacies of high-value contracts in NHL free agency, examining the criteria that define such deals, evaluating the pre- and post-signing performance of marquee players, and analyzing whether these investments typically yield the desired returns.
Definition for “spending big” on a blue-chip free agent
To evaluate the performance of blue-chip free agents, we need to define and isolate players who signed big contracts in free agency. For this exercise, we are going to exclude restricted free agents and contract extensions. Because the salary cap upper limit changes from year to year, we are focusing on any contracts that account for over eight percent of a team’s salary cap for the following season. Eight percent is somewhat arbitrary, but we need to cut it off somewhere, and when evaluating the details, this seemed about right.
Contract term length is a very important aspect of evaluating the risk, value, and success of a contract, but to keep it simple, we are excluding it from our analysis.
The blue-chip cohort
Since 2011, there have been 40 contracts signed for 8 percent or more of the subsequent season’s upper limit of the salary cap. The position breakdown is 26 forwards, 12 defensemen, and two goalies. With only two goalies in the sample, we are going to exclude them from the analysis. The two goalies were Ryan Miller ($6M/year in 2015) and Sergei Bobrovsky ($10M/year in 2020).
Pre- and post-contract signing
Evaluating player performance goes well beyond goals and assists, but the big-ticket free agents, particularly the forwards, tend to be the highest scorers. For the sake of simplicity, we are just going to look at points and goals by position over a three-year period before and after the contract is signed.
Forwards
Here is a look at the 26 forwards who signed big free-agency deals and their average points per game in the three years prior to and after signing the contract.
As the chart shows, there is a drop of 12 percent in the first and second seasons, and a drop of 24 percent in the third season after signing the contract. We see a similar drop when looking at average goals per game.
We are starting to see a theme, but surely some of these contracts work out, don’t they? Here is a breakout of the details by player.
Yikes. Only three of the 26 contracts signed by forwards saw an increase in points per game in the three years after the contract was signed.
Defensemen
Now let’s turn our attention to the defense. Here is a look at the points per game of the 12 defensemen who signed big free-agency deals since 2011.
Interestingly, there is an increase in production in the second and third seasons after signing the contract. My theory is that a defenseman jumping to a new team will play more conservatively in the first year with that new team as he learns to play in a different system with new teammates. In seasons two and three, he starts to get more comfortable, and the coach might also give him more responsibility and playing time.
Regardless of the reason for the increase in years two and three, defensemen still see declines in the three years after signing their free agent contract.
Note: Because defensive goal scoring is more rare, we won’t be looking at the goals-per-game comparison.
Evaluation considerations
Depending on the expectations of the team signing the big-ticket player, going after the top free agents on the market can be a decision with diminishing returns. The simple analysis only evaluates the three years after signing, but most big free-agent signings end up being for longer terms of six or seven years. The average term length of the signings I looked at was 5.6 years. It is probably stating the obvious, but the data doesn’t look any better if I widen the period of analysis.
As mentioned above, points and goals per game are not the only metrics to consider when evaluating the impact of a free-agent signing. It should also be noted that any time a player changes teams, there is an adjustment period of adapting to new teammates and coaching styles that might result in a slight drop in production.
As challenging as the outlook might be for signing big free agents, many of the signings still add something to their new team that was probably missing from their roster. For example, the Kraken need to add goals to their lineup. In a scenario where the Kraken sign Sam Reinhart this offseason, even if he sees a drop of 20 percent in goal production over the prior three seasons, that still adds 32 goals to the roster.
What are your thoughts? Should the Kraken throw caution to the wind and go for one of the big free agents that will hit the market this offseason?
