On July 5, Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis took the microphone at center ice and addressed fans assembled for the the last day of Kraken Development Camp to announce the team’s re-signing of Eeli Tolvanen. That same day, Francis also announced the signing of Berkly Catton to his entry-level contract, indicating that the Kraken were front office was taking care of business and checking items off its summer to-do list. But as the applause and the excitement of the day died down, all attention turned to the one piece of unfinished business: signing Matty Beniers.
At the time, we knew that the Kraken were in talks with the young forward’s camp. Francis told the media on July 1 that the team had already spoken with agent Pat Brisson and planned to do so again on July 2.
Finally, on August 20, the dam broke. The Kraken announced the team had signed Beniers to a seven-year, $50 million contract, carrying a $7.14 million average annual value.
Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown gave his instant analysis after the news dropped. With the benefit of extra time to analyze the deal–and finish a vacation, ahem–what else can we say about where Beniers and his contract stacks up against the league and similar deals struck over the years? And what conclusions can we draw about whether the Kraken made a sound investment? Here are my takeaways on the deal.
1. Beniers makes history again
Matty Beniers is Seattle’s first ever draft pick, highest-drafted player, first draft pick to make his career debut with the team, and its first player to win a major NHL award–the 2023 Calder Trophy. His new contract now joins that litany of milestones.
In what is highly unlikely a coincidence, Beniers’ deal matches the term and total dollar value of the richest contract in Kraken history–the contract Seattle gave to defenseman Brandon Montour on July 1. (Vince Dunn’s contract remains the richest in terms of AAV.)
The seven-year term is also the longest contract in team history, tied with contracts given to Montour and Chandler Stephenson earlier this offseason. While the deal is lengthy, it is one year short of the eight-year maximum term in the CBA for a team’s own restricted free agent. It ties Beniers to the Kraken through his age 28 season, and it buys out one unrestricted free agent year.
Let’s get quizzical: The Matty Beniers contract is the first time the Kraken have signed one of their draft picks to a second deal after the player’s entry-level contract. It is not, however, the first time the team has signed a player to a second contract after originally signing the player to an entry-level contract. It has happened twice previously. Can you name the two players? Scroll to the bottom of the article for the answer (or listen to the last Sound Of Hockey Podcast).
2. The Beniers contract comes in near market projections
Earlier in the offseason, Evolving Hockey and AFP Analytics published contract projections for notable unrestricted and restricted free agents. While their full methods are not public, each outfit uses contracts signed by comparable players as a basis.
Evolving Hockey projected Beniers’ most likely contract as a seven-year, $7.1 million dollar AAV contract. After rounding, this is precisely the contract that the team and player settled on. For its part, AFP Analytics projected a seven-year deal, carrying a $6.6 million AAV. This was also quite close to the actual deal.
AFP Analytics used the following player contracts as comparables:
I’ll return to a few of these names in a moment.
3. Beniers’ market value slipped from where it was last offseason
If Matty Beniers’ new contract checked in at (or ever-so-slightly above) his market value, one might question the near unanimous public praise of the deal. I think there are three explanations for the reaction–rooted in fandom, anchoring bias, and structural factors, respectively.
First, among Kraken fans, I believe many are justifiably excited that a young player they have followed closely will be with the team long-term. Beniers’ willingness to commit to seven years in Seattle is viewed as a positive, particularly coming off a disappointing campaign for the team. That factor alone makes the deal a win for many.
Second, when a contract extension for Beniers was first discussed last summer, several analysts, myself included, predicted an extension with a maximum eight-year term and approximately $64 million total ($8 million dollars annually). I arrived at this figure using age and point production comparables at the time. Judged against that standard, securing Beniers for $14 million “less” in total commitments could be viewed as a win for the team in a salary cap environment.
Yet, the fact is, Beniers’ market value declined this past season as his offensive production fell from .71 points per game in 2022-23 to .48 points per game in 2023-24. This sophomore regression casts more doubt on his ultimate offensive upside and puts him into a slightly different contract category. Viewing this deal as a “value” relative to earlier expectations may be an example of “anchoring bias”–a cognitive bias where we weigh our initial impressions of Beniers, both on-ice and in projecting the long-term value, too heavily. We think Beniers is “really” the Calder Trophy winner and last year was an aberration.
How much to weigh Beniers’ on-ice production decline was likely a key sticking point in negotiations. As we have said on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we believe that there was an eight-year contract offer on the table for Beniers last offseason. This offseason, both sides mitigated their risk by settling on a seven-year term. From the team perspective, the team gets some relief by lowering the total dollar commitment.
From Beniers’ perspective, he has the chance to get to unrestricted free agency one year sooner and potentially recoup the money he “lost” due to his down season. Beniers’ $7.14 million AAV represents 8.12 percent of the 2024-25 salary cap. If he is able to maintain his on-ice value over the course of his current deal and secure another deal worth 8.12 percent of the cap in 2031, his 2031-32 salary would be a little more than $10 million (assuming five percent annual growth in the cap). This would mitigate most of what he may have “lost” by his down season. But it shifts a fair amount of injury and performance risk onto Beniers.
Third, we need to keep in mind that structural factors depress the salaries of all young players. Given what we know about how hockey players age, the next half decade projects to be the most productive of Beniers’ career. Even so, under league rules, Beniers was still six years away from being able to freely negotiate a contract with all 32 NHL teams. I think most would agree that Beniers’ contract is likely to be a better production-to-dollar “value” than Chandler Stephenson’s deal from earlier in the offseason. But Stephenson had the leverage of unrestricted free agency. We improve our evaluations when we take a closer look at player leverage in grading the “value” of a deal achieved by the team. Stephenson had it; Beniers–like other young players–didn’t have it.
4. Beniers trails many players who have earned similar contracts in shot generation
Digging a little deeper, I wanted to see how Beniers measured up against players who had received similar contracts in the past. In an exercise that would have been many hours of labor easier in the CapFriendly era, I assembled a list of all contracts signed in the last 15 years by a forward aged 23 years old or younger with a contract term of six years or longer, and an AAV of between seven percent and 9.25 percent of the salary cap in the first year of the contract. This exercise returned 25 total results, including Beniers’ deal:
The good news is, every one of these players is still in the league and producing. James Van Reimsdyk doesn’t currently have a contract, but, even at 35 years old, I’d be surprised if he didn’t find a home by opening day. And all but one of these players (Brandon Saad) saw their per-game point production continue to increase post-signing. (Seth Jarvis and Juraj Slafkovsky, like Beniers, haven’t yet played post-signing.)
Beniers fits comfortably within this list in several important respects. Of these 25 players, Beniers ranked 13th in total time on ice and ninth in average time on ice at the time of signing. This reflects the substantial role he has played for the Kraken early in his career–even relative to a distinguished list of players. Beniers also has the high-profile pedigree characteristic of players earning a contract like this. All but one of these 25 players (Saad again) was a first round pick, with 18 of 25 being a top-10 pick, like Beniers.
It’s a great list for Beniers to be on.
On the other hand, Beniers’ actual and expected point production trails the average in this group when normalizing for ice time. Beniers is toward the bottom of the list (t-20th) with 2.12 points per 60 minutes at the time of signing. Likewise, his individual expected goals per 60 minutes of 0.80 is in the bottom five in this group (t-21st).
What is the root of the issue? Beniers struggles to generate his own shots on goal relative to this peer group. He sees the ice well and can generate looks for his teammates at a reasonable clip (17th in assists/60), but he generates only 6.12 shots on goal per 60 minutes, which is the third-lowest of this group of players.
He needs to take a leap forward in generating his own scoring chances, particularly from the most dangerous areas of the ice, if he is going to be an “average” performer among his peers in this comparable contract group.
This is particularly true because contracts like Beniers’ deal come with the weight of public and organizational expectation. Consider the case of Nikolaj Ehlers–one of Beniers’ contract comparables. He has continued as a solid performer and analytics darling for the life of his contract in Winnipeg, but his inability to take control of games and score, particularly late in the season and in the playoffs, has led to ever-increasing scrutiny and trade rumors.
5. Seattle is paying for Beniers’ future role and production
I also wanted to see where Beniers’ contract stacks up against the other centers in the league going into the 2024-25 season. While public position tracking data isn’t perfect, I tabulated a list of NHL forwards with a minimum threshold of total face-offs as a stand-in for the league’s centers. Beniers’ contract ranks 36th by average annual value–equivalent of high-end 2C.
Yet, his .48 points per game from last season ranked 93rd among the group–equivalent of a low-end 3C.
All of the foregoing analysis leads me to the conclusion that the Beniers contract is slightly above Beniers’ market value based on historical precedent and existing production.
Even so, Seattle likely saw at least four legitimate reasons to agree to that deal. First and foremost is the rising cap. For the first time in years, a team can have confidence in a steadily rising cap over the medium-term. A rising cap decreases the burden of a long-term deal like this on a percentage basis.
Second, Beniers is young enough that his point production can reasonably be expected to continue to improve. Among the comparable contract group, those players saw an average .21 point-per-game production increase after signing their new deals. If Beniers’ numbers see a similar uptick, he would settle in around a .83 point-per-game player going forward. This production would have ranked him 34th in the league this past season–almost precisely the same spot as his salary puts him.
Third, the team almost certainly values the narrative and public persona of Matty Beniers. Beniers was the Kraken’s first draft pick. He represented the team at the 2024 NHL Draft, announcing top pick Catton. He sits squarely at the center of conversations about the next captain of the Kraken. I’m sure the team would like Beniers–and his likable, professional demeanor–to be the face of the franchise moving forward. This has value beyond goals and assists.
Finally, I do believe it is fair to say Beniers’ point production doesn’t accurately convey his on-ice value. As Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones recently wrote, Beniers delivers excellent defensive zone and transition play, and this has value.
On the other hand, Beniers has not yet been able to compliment and buttress those ample skills with consistent offensive-zone play driving and shot generation. The best defense is the ability to trap the puck in the offensive zone. Only when Beniers gets more effective offensively will his defensive exploits truly get the recognition they deserve.
In the meantime, we risk overstating Beniers’ value by comparing his skills beyond the statsheet to Beniers’ childhood role model Patrice Bergeron. (Jordan Eberle made this comparison again recently to 93.3 FM KJR.) Bergeron was already a .9 point-per-game player in his age 20 season–a mark Beniers has not yet approached. Bergeron tilted the ice with his all-around game. Beniers is not in the same neighborhood offensively.
To the contrary, Beniers’ numbers at signing are much closer to those of ex-teammate Alex Wennberg when Wennberg signed a six-year contract with Columbus as a 22-year-old. Wennberg wasn’t among the comparables I analyzed because his contract accounted for only 6.5 percent of the cap in its first year. But, as noted above, AFP Analytics saw Wennberg as Beniers’ fourth-most similar player contract in projecting Beniers’ deal this summer.
As Kraken fans no doubt recall, Wennberg struggled to create his own shots too. Wennberg’s inability to grow into a more dynamic offensive game contributed to Columbus buying out his contract early. Wennberg’s career trajectory is a sobering cautionary tale. Beniers needs to take another step forward offensively to escape a similar trajectory.
6. The Collective Bargaining Agreement minimizes the risk here
While I don’t think the Beniers deal is necessarily a strong value based on market comparables, it is important to note that the Collective Bargain Agreement incentivizes big bets like this one on young talent. Until a player turns 26, a team has the option to buy out the remainder of a contract at just one-third of the remaining salary value.
With respect to Beniers, this means that if Beniers stagnates offensively or his injury issues grow, the team will have the option after each of the next four seasons to get out of the deal for a fraction of the cost. (As mentioned above, this is what the Blue Jackets did with Wennberg.) For this reason alone, a long-term bet on a player as talented as Matty Beniers is a good one. It’s mostly upside for the team.
7. Seattle’s cap sheet suggests another transaction may be coming
After accounting for Beniers’ new contract, the Seattle Kraken have just a few thousand dollars in cap space remaining with only 12 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goaltenders on the roster. This is two players short of the maximum roster limit.
Brandon Tanev (Brian Liesse/Photo)
The situation has the potential to become untenable very quickly should normal wear-and-tear injuries arise. If a player with a significant contract were to suffer a long-term injury, it could break the cap crunch by allowing the team cap relief associated with a so-called “LTIR” designation. But, as it stands, the team faces the risk of entering the season hamstrung from rostering even one extra forward. This is not how teams like to operate.
Accordingly, I would not be surprised if the Kraken are active in trade calls that could provide some relief. Forward Brandon Tanev is the most obvious candidate to move because he has on-ice value but a single year of a multi-million dollar cap hit and can be replaced by several players in the organization at a lower number. Other avenues are possible too but would likely require either a replacement piece coming back or a bigger roster shake-up.
This is one storyline to follow as we draw nearer to training camp.
Let’s get quizzical answer: Earlier this offseason, the Kraken re-signed first-ever signee Luke Henman and goalie Ales Stezka after their entry-level contracts expired.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
As the Kraken embark on their fourth season, Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord are set to again share time between the pipes. Seattle was a top-10 team in goals against (232) and save percentage (.909) during the 2023-24 season, but notably, it was the only top-10 team in goals against that missed the playoffs.
Kraken goaltending has improved every year since the team’s inception. Will it take another positive step in the upcoming season?
Goalies under contract
Grubauer and Daccord are the only two goaltenders under contract with NHL experience within the Kraken organization. Grubauer has three years remaining on his contract with an annual cap hit of $5.9 million. Daccord is entering the final year of his two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.2 million. General manager Ron Francis will need to make a decision on Daccord’s future within the next year, but at least to start the season, and barring injury, the goaltending positions do not appear to be open for competition.
How they fared last year
Grubauer has faced scrutiny for his performance over the first three years of his Kraken tenure, some of which is warranted; his save percentage has yet to eclipse .900 for a full season with Seattle. However, as Kraken goaltending as a whole has improved year over year, he too has taken positive steps with each campaign, with last season being his best statistically since joining the Kraken.
Grubauer missed two months due to a lower-body injury between December and February, limiting him to 36 games on the season. Even after he returned, then-coach Dave Hakstol continued running Daccord out as the starter for a couple more weeks before Grubauer finally returned to game action on Feb. 13, when he re-took the 1A goaltender role for the remainder of the season, playing in 19 games down the stretch.
During this span, he posted a .911 save percentage and a 2.52 goals-against average (GAA). If you exclude the game against Montreal on Mar. 24, when he was pulled, his save percentage improves to .918. The Kraken as a whole did not fare well in their final 30 games, going 13-14-3, but Grubauer was in net for nine of the 13 wins. He also faced tougher competition, starting seven games against playoff-bound teams compared to Daccord’s four. Grubauer finished the season with a 9-7-1 record over his last 17 starts.
The 2023-24 season marked Daccord’s full-time arrival in the NHL. The 27-year-old goaltender was not eligible to be considered a rookie but made a strong impression in his first full season. His standout moment came in front of 47,000 fans during the Winter Classic, where he shutout the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, 3-0.
He also played a key role in the Kraken’s franchise-best nine-game winning streak. Unfortunately, following the streak, the Kraken went 2-6-1 and fell out of playoff contention. Daccord finished the season with 50 games played and ranked sixth in the NHL in GAA (2.46) and save percentage (.915). However, he cooled off in the latter part of the season, finishing 4-7-2 with a .898 save percentage and a 2.73 GAA from mid-February onward.
Joey Daccord and Yanni Gourde answer questions following the 2024 Winter Classic. (Photo/Darren Brown)
Who is the starting goaltender?
Both goalies made a case to be the starter with their performances last season. But who will ultimately snag that “1A” role to start 2024-25?
The case for Grubauer
Grubauer finished last season strong and has the experience and contract to be the Kraken’s starter. Though that big contract isn’t the reason to give him the job, the Kraken (and I) want to see him succeed, and he’ll be given the opportunity to do so. At 32 years old, staying healthy, getting into a rhythm early in the season, and continuing his solid play from last season are crucial.
The case for Daccord
Daccord excelled when Grubauer was sidelined, leading the Kraken to a 12-7-3 record with a .935 save percentage and a 1.996 GAA—numbers that would be worthy of Vezina consideration if maintained for a full season. However, these numbers dropped once Grubauer returned, and the Kraken faded from the playoff discussion. New head coach Dan Bylsma has seen Daccord’s success firsthand for two years at the AHL level, which means he will not hesitate to swap goalies if either netminder struggles.
Philipp Grubauer (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Joey Daccord (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The “Starter”
My projection is the Kraken will likely continue their 1A/1B goaltender strategy in the 2024-25 season, with Grubauer starting as the 1A and Daccord as the 1B. I project a 60/40 split in starts, but this will be fluid as the season progresses. Hopefully, the coaching staff can get both goalies operating at peak performance, giving the Kraken a stable duo for the entire season. Grubauer’s play at the end of last season is the main reason for getting the 1A role, but he will have to work and continue to perform to keep it. Competition here is a good thing.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
Three goalies are expected to compete for the AHL affiliate roster this year.
Ales Stezka: Signed a one-year, two-way deal.
Niklas Kokko: Drafted in the second round of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft.
Victor Ostman: Undrafted free agent signed from the University of Maine.
One of the younger goalies, Kokko or Ostman, will likely play in the ECHL with the Kansas City Mavericks. Kokko is transitioning from Liiga and will need time to adjust to the North American game. Ostman recently signed as a free agent out of college. My hunch is that Ostman will be assigned to the ECHL, Kokko will be the backup in Coachella Valley, and Stezka will be the starter. If the Kraken need to recall a goalie during the year, it will be interesting to see who they bring up. Stezka is waiver-eligible and could be claimed by another team, while Kokko and Ostman are exempt from waivers, though that shouldn’t prevent Stezka from getting a callup if he’s needed at the NHL level. All three goaltenders have zero NHL experience.
To be clear, goaltending was not the Kraken’s issue last year. With a solid blue line, if they can continue to improve in this area, they will be a very difficult team to score against. However, I expect some regression as the Kraken focus on increasing goal scoring, as the extra pressure to create offense could lead to defensive lapses. Bylsma has two quality goaltenders, but the depth chart ends there, so Seattle will also need good health from Daccord and Grubauer. Assuming both do remain healthy, competition between Grubauer and Daccord should help push each goaltender to get better.
I’m ready with the “Gruuuuuuu” and “Joey, Joey, Joey” chants when the Kraken hit the ice in a few weeks. If you have any comments or questions, please leave them below. You can find me on the X at @blaizg.
The biggest lingering question facing the Seattle Kraken and general manager Ron Francis this offseason was answered Tuesday. Restricted free agent and 2023 Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers signed a new seven-year contract with the organization at an average annual value of $7.14 million.
“Matty has been a core part of our team since making his NHL debut, not only on the ice, but in his commitment to our community and our fans,” Francis said. “Signing Matty to a new contract was a top priority for our offseason, and we are excited to have it done. We’re looking forward to seeing Matty take the next steps as a player and watching him contribute to many more memorable moments for our franchise.”
Beniers, a 21-year-old, top-line center who was the first draft pick in franchise history at No. 2 overall in 2021, burst onto the NHL scene late in Seattle’s inaugural season when he scored three goals and added nine assists in 10 games after making the difficult jump straight from the NCAA. He followed that up with 24 goals and 33 assists in his first full season, earning him rookie-of-the-year honors and elevating expectations.
One could argue Beniers took a step back in 2023-24, when the league seemed to figure out how to defend him and when his teammates also struggled to produce for long swaths of the season. But even with extended scoring droughts and what was widely considered a disappointing campaign for the youngster, he still managed a respectable 15 goals and 22 assists and played a key role throughout.
The future remains bright for the Hingham, Mass., native, who has now solidified himself as one of the core members of the organization for the foreseeable future. The deal keeps Beniers in Seattle through the 2030-31 season and buys out two years of his unrestricted free agent eligibility.
No real drama, deal done
RFA’s generally don’t have much leverage, other than when things start to come down to the wire with training camp and the start of the season. The uneasiness of negotiations dragging out to a point where team activities are missed creates urgency on both sides but can corner a team into upping its offer. In this case, the start of training camp was beginning to creep up, but the deal got done with plenty of time to spare.
Francis had made no bones about his desire to sign Beniers long-term, and now he gets his guy.
Analysis
This is about where we expected Beniers to land with this contract. If he had matched his 2022-23 stats this past season, he likely could have gotten a higher AAV, but his 2023-24 performance simply did not warrant a significantly bigger number. It’s a fair deal for both sides at present, and the hope is that he continues to develop into a star player, which will turn it into a steal of deal for the Kraken in a couple years.
It’s hard to get a full salary cap picture right now, because it depends on how many extras the Kraken will want to keep around and who they keep after training camp. But, if we plug in John Hayden and Ryan Winterton as extra forwards and Josh Mahura as a seventh defenseman (obviously some big assumptions there, but that would fill out a 23-man roster), that puts Seattle about $1.5 million over the cap. So, there could still be a salary-shedding move or two coming.
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Seattle Kraken have been active this offseason, making a splash in free agency and shaking up the coaching staff. With the NHL preseason starting in just over a month, we wanted to go over what we expect to see from the Kraken under new bench boss, Dan Bylsma.
Coaching style
Bylsma’s approach to coaching stems from the relationships he is able to build. We often hear that he is well-prepared, direct, and clear in his messaging, and he creates a balance between being firm on what the player needs to do to succeed while keeping the atmosphere light and positive.
One comment we’ve heard on his coaching style is that his offense relies heavily on the stretch pass, where his players leave the defensive zone early and try to receive a long pass for an odd-man rush. This worked in Pittsburgh, where they had highly skilled players, but can the Kraken replicate that success? His time in Coachella Valley showed that he has updated his style to match the players on his team and adopted a similar system to what the Kraken were using under Dave Hakstol. So, perhaps his approach to systems in Seattle will be different to that of his time with the Penguins.
Buzz words
Dan Bylsma’s coaching style is all about a fast north-south transition game. (**Editor’s Note: That is a bit of an inside joke from one of the Sound Of Hockey Patreon Mailbag sessions.)
Thank you to Sound Of Hockey Patreon member Mike N. for submitting a question and triggering this article. Mike asked, “… what should we be looking for when the team takes the ice in preseason?” as well as some definitions for some buzz words around Bylsma’s coaching style. Let’s start with some definitions:
Transition game – How the team moves from defense to offense. Typically, speed and control contribute to a better transition game.
Fast – When mentioned in the same breath as coaching, this typically refers to the pace at which the team gets the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone.
North/South – North is the offensive zone and South is the defensive zone. It involves excelling in both zones and getting up and down the ice quickly. Our own Darren Brown wrote about systems and “playing fast” back in April.
Really, the above words can be used in any combination to describe what any team or coach is trying to do. If there are other buzz words causing confusion, feel free to comment below and we will try to define them.
Indicators of success for Bylsma
Preseason games have a few purposes: one of which is to practice and fine tune for the regular season, and another of which is to determine who makes the final Opening Night roster. And while personnel for NHL teams during preseason can vary dramatically from game to game, we should start to get a glimpse at Bylsma’s strategies during these games, as his players put systematic tweaks into practice. Here’s what we will be looking for in these games.
Dan Bylsma (Photo/Brian Liesse)
North/South
North (offense)
The No. 1 goal for the Kraken this season should be to increase scoring if they are to have any success. Seattle was 29th in the NHL in goals scored in 2023-24. This can be tracked simply by looking at the goals scored per game, but this does not take into account the quality of opponent. Another statistic to consider is high-danger shots. Seattle was also 29th in the NHL for high-danger shots at 252 during the 2023-24 season, per Moneypuck.com, which tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots.
For the eye test folks, you will want to watch if the Kraken are getting shots from between the face-off dots. Under Hakstol, the Kraken played a possession game and cycled the puck along the boards looking for an opening to get the puck into the high-danger areas. Many of their shots, though, ended up coming from the points when they struggled to get pucks to the middle. We do not expect the approach to change dramatically, but watch if the Kraken are able to get the puck off the boards more frequently.
Another big part of offensive success comes from the power play. New assistant coach Bob Woods will be in charge of running the power play with Jessica Campbell also providing guidance. The Kraken have seen improvement year-over-year with the power play, topping out at 20.7 percent last season. This ranked the Kraken in the middle of the NHL, but continued improvement will be welcomed. Seattle has upgraded personnel for this area as well with the additions of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, so perhaps these changes will give the team a boost with the manpower advantage.
Read more about the Kraken power play in an article by our own John Barr. Once again, it’s important to focus on where the shots are being taken; more shots from within the face-off dots will lead to more offensive success.
South (defense)
There is not much to change on the south end of the ice, as the Kraken were eighth best in the league in goals against with 232. Out of the top 10 teams in goals against, the Kraken were the only team to not make the postseason. With the addition of Montour and the expectation that Ryker Evans makes the Kraken full-time this year, it does seem to shift the mindset of the D corps to lean more offensive, so it will be interesting to see how Seattle’s play in its own end evolves.
Moneypuck.com also tracks high-, medium-, and low-danger shots against. The Seattle Kraken were No. 1 in the NHL for allowing the fewest high-danger shots against (239), second at medium-danger shots (577), and 19th at low-danger shots (2727). This highlights that under Hakstol, the Kraken would give teams shots from low-percentage areas but really protected the more dangerous areas. If the Kraken are to continue their defensive effectiveness, watch for shots against to continue coming from the perimeter and from farther away from the net.
Fast transition game (controlled zone entries versus dump and chase)
The first few years of Kraken hockey featured a primarily dump-and-chase style. The Kraken would shoot the puck deep into the offensive zone and then use a forecheck to control it. The jury is still out on whether this was Hakstol’s preferred way to gain the zone or the best he could do it with the players he was given. Hakstol’s approach was partly defensive as well, as the other team cannot score if the puck is in their defensive zone. Bylsma will face similar personnel challenges, as the Kraken still lack elite offensive punch.
There has been a lot of research on the benefits of controlled zone entries. Research by Eric Tulsky and Thibaud Chatel is a good place to start if you want some additional reading. To summarize, successful controlled zone entries lead to a two-fold increase in shots on goal compared to dump and chase. This is something else to keep in mind while watching the games to determine if the Kraken tend to carry the puck into the zone or use a dump-and-chase approach. This will continue to evolve into the regular season as other NHL teams finalize their rosters and tweak their defensive play.
Players to watch
There are many interesting players to watch during training camp and preseason. We’ve divided these players into three groups: new free agents, Coachella Valley Firebirds, and players returning to junior hockey.
Two players new to Coach Bylsma’s system are free-agent signings Stephenson and Montour. Both are expected to be key contributors on the Kraken’s top lines. Identifying their linemates and seeing how on-ice chemistry develops during preseason will be a crucial storyline to follow.
Joining a new team as a free agent can be a rocky road for some players, so getting off to a good start will be important for these two players, who will face plenty of expectations to produce right away.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
From the 2023-24 Firebirds roster, two players stand out: Shane Wright and Ryker Evans. They are widely expected to make the Kraken roster full-time this year. Evans played 36 games with the Kraken last year and 25 games with the Firebirds, and with how the roster is now shaped, the organization is clearly expecting him to be with the big club. It will be interesting to watch how these two slot into the lineup and whether they look like they can keep up with NHL-level talent during the course of a full season.
Beyond these two players, there is a group of players getting closer, but who we expect to play for Coachella Valley this year. This group will be eager to show how they have improved during Training Camp. While this is not an exhaustive list, these are players we will be monitoring closely in preseason.
Logan Morrison
Ryan Winterton
Lleyton Roed
Tucker Robertson
Jacob Melanson
Ville Ottavainen
Jani Nyman
Jagger Firkus
David Goyette
Ty Nelson
Watching how long these players stick around during camp can be an indicator of how well they are performing and how they are perceived by the Kraken. There is still at least a roster spot or two to be had, so while we don’t *expect* these players to make the team full-time, it can happen.
Look no further than Tye Kartye, who made the most of his opportunity during the 2022-23 playoffs and then continued to impress in training camp to secure his spot on the roster. Even if none of these players make the team out of camp, this is a great chance to get a glimpse of the Kraken’s future while they play against elevated talent. They also may be call-ups in the event of injuries.
Players returning to juniors
Some of the top prospects in the Kraken organization are 19 or younger and not eligible to play in the AHL. These players either have to make the Kraken full-time or be returned to the CHL.
Carson Rehkopf
Berkly Catton
Eduard Sale*
It is a long shot for Rehkopf or Catton to make the roster for the full season, but if they put on a strong showing in rookie/training camp and preseason, they could stick around for up to nine games in the regular season. After that point, their entry-level contracts are no longer slide-eligible, meaning playing more NHL games would burn the first year of their entry-level contracts. Watching how these players are fitting in and hanging with legitimate NHL players provides a preview of the future.
Sale has an asterisk next to his name because it is unclear where he will play this year. Since he was playing in the Czech Extraliga when Seattle drafted the right winger, he is eligible to play for the Firebirds this year. At 19, he is also eligible to play in the CHL. The case for him playing with the Firebirds is strengthened by his 12 points in 10 games during the OHL playoffs, but he still hasn’t hit the level of production expected of a first-round draft pick. Additionally, Rehkopf was traded to the Brampton Steelheads, so Sale no longer has a fellow Kraken prospect with him in Kitchener.
While this is just speculation, with 38 points in 49 games in the CHL, returning to the Kitchener Rangers feels like the most likely destination for Sale.
#OHLRangers have completed a trade with the Brampton Steelheads
This article was inspired by one of our Patreon Mailbags. Thank you, Mike N., for the question and your support. (**Editor’s note: If you aren’t already a Patreon subscriber, you can become one today!). If you have any questions or comments please leave them below. You can follow me on the X at @blaizg.
On Sunday, the Seattle Kraken announced the signing of 2024 third-round draft pick Kim Saarinen to an entry-level contract. That deal brought the team’s total number of NHL contracts to 50.
If this number rings a bell for you, it’s probably because you’ve heard mention of the “50-Contract Rule,” which limits how many players a team can have signed at any one time.
What is this rule, and what does it mean that Seattle now has 50 NHL contracts? Even the most dedicated fan would be forgiven for not knowing the nuances of this rule.
This is because discussion of the 50-Contract Rule typically lacks important context. Head over to the Seattle Kraken page on Puckpedia, for example, and you’ll see a simple note that Seattle has now used all 50 contract slots for the 2024-25 season. Is this true? Not really. What does it mean that Seattle has 50 NHL contracts? Puckpedia and other public resources don’t provide that answer. (To be fair, CapFriendly did not provide useful context either before it shuttered earlier this month.)
To make matters worse, even if the industrious fan sought out the source rule in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”), the fan would likely come away with an incorrect understanding of how the 50-Contract Rule operates in practice. NHL teams actually follow a shadow rule—or, at least, a strained interpretation of the words in the CBA. Of course, this contributes to the flawed public discourse.
So, let’s dive into this sometimes-mentioned, rarely-explained 50-Contract Rule and consider what it means for the Kraken roster-building options moving forward.
The Kraken have 50 NHL contracts
Following Seattle’s initial wave of free agent signings at the beginning of the month, the team had 47 NHL contracts on the books for the 2024-25 season. Then, on July 5, the Kraken signed restricted free agent Eeli Tolvanen and 2024 first-round pick Berkly Catton to NHL deals, and, on July 14, the team signed Saarinen. This brought Seattle’s NHL contract total to 50.
Are the Kraken now hamstrung from signing any more NHL contracts this offseason? If so, does this mean that the team will have to trade (or terminate) a contract simply to sign a deal with unsigned restricted free agent Matty Beniers?
The answer is no, but let’s find out why.
The 50-Contract Rule explained
Under the CBA, an NHL team may have a maximum of 90 players on its “Reserve List” at any time. A team’s Reserve List includes all players signed to standard NHL player contracts (“SPC”) as well as all unsigned NHL Draft choices during the time period the team retains exclusive NHL negotiating rights with the player.
Below the 90-player overall limit, the CBA provides that a team is allowed “not more than 50 players signed to an SPC.” This is the “50-Contract Rule.”
Unsigned players or players who have signed a contract directly with an AHL or ECHL affiliate do not count toward this 50-contract limit. As of the posting of this article, Beniers has not agreed to a contract for the 2024-25 season, so he does not count under the 50-Contract Rule. Likewise, recent Kraken Development Camp invitee Landon McCallum does not count because he signed an AHL contract directly with the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
With respect to existing NHL contracts, though, the 50-Contract Rule is subject to only one exception: “Age 18 and age 19 players who were returned to Juniors, and who have not played 11 NHL Games in one season, shall be exempt from inclusion in the 50 Player limit” (the “Juniors Exemption”). Separately, the CBA defines the word “Juniors” to mean the major junior leagues in the Canadian Hockey League.
Based on this black-and-white CBA language, one might reasonably conclude that an 18- or 19-year-old player becomes exempt from the 50-Contract Rule only after the player is returned to a CHL team to play the season. If the player has not yet been returned or the player is returned to play in some other non-CHL league, he is not exempt.
In reality, it doesn’t work that way.
Here is how the Juniors Exemption actually works: Signed 18- or 19 year-old players are, from the moment their contracts go into effect, exempt from the 50-Contract Rule unless and until the player is placed on an active professional (i.e., NHL, AHL, or ECHL) roster. This would typically happen coming out of NHL training camp. If the player is not added to a professional roster and instead returns to play with any other club team, the player continues to be exempt from the 50-Contract Rule.
If an 18- or 19-year-old player remains on the NHL roster to begin a year, the player counts against the limit, but could regain the exemption if returned to the player’s other club before playing 11 NHL games. For example, Shane Wright counted against Seattle’s 50-contract limit to begin the 2022-23 season, but became exempt again when he was assigned back to the CHL after having played only eight NHL games.
Finally, the Juniors Exemption applies to all 18- or 19-year-old players who have been or could be returned to other leagues, not just the CHL. For example, Oscar Fisker-Molgaard’s contract is exempt during the 2024 offseason even though he would be returned to the 2024-25 season in the SHL, the top-level professional league in Sweden.
The Kraken have room to sign Beniers or other NHL contracts
The Kraken have seven 18- or 19-year-old players who fall within the Juniors Exemption to the 50-Contract Rule:
Carson Rehkopf (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
Eduard Sale (Kitchener Rangers, OHL)
Lukas Dragicevic (Tri-City Americans, WHL)
Caden Price (Kelowna Rockets, WHL)
Berkly Catton (Spokane Chiefs, WHL)
Oscar Fisker Molgaard (HV71, SHL)
Kim Saarinen (HPK, Liiga)
Accordingly, contrary to what one would reasonably surmise from PuckPedia, it is fairer to say the Kraken are currently at 43 of 50 non-exempt NHL contracts under the 50-Contract Rule.
There is an outside possibility that Rehkopf or Catton could earn an extended look on the Kraken roster this fall after training camp—which would, at least temporarily, end their exemptions. But the most likely outcome is that all these exemptions will persist into the 2024-25 season.
The team will want to leave itself flexibility for in-season additions if the NHL roster is struck by injuries or performance declines. But with spots open for seven more NHL contracts, the team has more than enough room to sign Beniers and add a minimum-salary veteran free-agent scorer before the season, should it desire to do so.
It is good to have that option open to add another NHL contract rather than being hemmed against the limit. An NHL contract is always going to be more appealing to a free agent than an AHL offer or an invite to camp on a professional tryout agreement, for example.
Kraken contracts corner
We put out a call on Twitter for contract or CBA minutiae you’d like to see addressed in future posts. The 50-Contract Rule analysis was inspired by one such question. Continue to send questions our way on Twitter or in the comments below. In the meantime, here are a few more Kraken contract quick hits:
1. Future contracts and the 50-Contract Rule
One other important point of clarification when counting contracts under the 50-Contract Rule: A contract signed for a future season only counts against the limit during the league year when the contract actually begins, not at the time it is signed. For example, Lleyton Roed signed an entry-level contract with the Kraken on March 29, 2024, which began with the 2024-25 season. Thus, his contract counted against the limit only as of July 1, 2024, the first day of the 2024-25 league year, not earlier.
2. Draft picks and the Reserve List
The time period of exclusive control over a drafted but unsigned player varies depending on where the player was drafted from. To date, Seattle has lost exclusive negotiating rights to only one drafted player, Kyle Jackson. The signing deadlines for Seattle’s other drafted prospects are as follows:
3. Saarinen signing breaks new ground
Returning to where we began, the Saarinen signing is intriguing even in isolation. The team got a close look at the 6-foot-4 Finnish goaltender earlier this month at Kraken Development Camp. And, after that viewing, the Kraken decided to make Saarinen the first Seattle draft pick selected outside the first round to sign an NHL contract during the summer of his draft year. Saarinen also hops over two earlier-drafted goalies, countryman Visa Vedenpaa and Russian Semyon Vyazovoi, in earning a contract. Fair or not, this puts added focus on him for this coming season.
4. Qualifying offers and the timeline to sign Beniers
On June 30, the Seattle Kraken extended Matty Beniers a “qualifying offer.” Based on the formula in the CBA, the offer was a one-year, one-way deal worth $874,125. That process was merely a formality, though. Beniers was never going to accept that deal. The Kraken offered it because they were required to do so in order to retain Beniers’ restricted free agent rights.
The keen observer will note that Beniers’ qualifying offer may have expired at 2:00 pm PT yesterday, July 15. That is the default deadline for expiry of qualifying offers in the CBA (though a team can theoretically extend the deadline).
What does it mean if Beniers’ qualifying offer expired? Nothing really. The team and the player continue to negotiate directly on a contract. Since Beneirs does not have enough professional experience (four seasons) to qualify for salary arbitration under the CBA, the rarely-used “offer sheet” from another team is the only alternative available to the player.
I’ve seen questions about the timeline for resolution on Beniers’ contract. Typically, the salary arbitration procedure creates deadlines throughout the offseason that spur restricted free agent deals. But, as mentioned, Beniers does not yet have arbitration rights, so the sides cannot rely on that framework. Instead, they are left to negotiate without any specific offseason deadlines.
I’d imagine the team will do everything it can to get Beniers’ contract resolved before training camp—particularly since Beniers remains the face of the young organization. And it could be much sooner. Quentin Byfield, a player in a similar situation to Beniers, just signed a deal with the Los Angeles Kings on July 15. Last year, the Kraken signed (arbitration-eligible) Vince Dunn on July 21.
5. AHL eligibility under the CHL Transfer Agreement
Another question I often see on Twitter asks which Kraken prospects from the CHL are eligible to play in the AHL this coming year. For background, see this earlier post on the CHL Transfer Agreement when looking at Shane Wright’s situation.
In short, a player drafted from the CHL must be 20 years old by Dec. 31, 2024, in order to be eligible to be assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds for the 2024-25 season. If the player is younger than that, he must be offered back to his Junior team if he does not make the NHL roster out of training camp. The following signed prospects are eligible for an AHL assignment this year:
David Goyette (DOB: March 27, 2004)
Ty Nelson (DOB: March 30, 2004)
Jagger Firkus (DOB: April 29, 2004)
Additionally, Eduard Sale (DOB: March 10, 2005) is eligible because, technically, he was playing in the Czech Elite League when he was drafted, so the CHL Transfer Agreement does not apply to him. Sale has been playing in the CHL’s Ontario Hockey League since Seattle selected him in the 2023 NHL Draft. Andrei Loshko (DOB: Oct. 7, 2005) would also be eligible to play in the AHL if he signs a contract, but he is currently unsigned. Tyson Jugnauth (DOB: April 17, 2004) is also age-eligible, though the CHL Transfer Agreement doesn’t apply because he was drafted out of the BCHL.
Conversely, the following CHL players, though signed to NHL contracts, are ineligible for an AHL assignment absent an extraordinary exception or one-off agreement:
Carson Rehkopf (DOB: Jan. 7, 2005)
Lukas Dragicevic (DOB: Apr. 25, 2005)
Caden Price (DOB: Aug. 24, 2005)
Berkly Catton (DOB: Jan. 14, 2006)
6. AHL signings bring clarity to the depth chart
On July 12, the Coachella Valley Firebirds reportedly agreed to terms with four players.
Hearing the Coachella Valley @Firebirds have re-signed several depth pieces from last season's squad to AHL deals for 2024-25, including:
Kraken GM Ron Francis had indicated previously that he believed LaFontaine would return. These players join 20-year-old forward Landon McCallum as players reportedly signing AHL contracts with the Firebirds for the 2024-25 season. All of these additions qualify as “developmental” players (or are otherwise exempt) under the “Veteran Rule” at the AHL level.
I currently have the following players projected to compete for AHL roster spots:
Looking at the depth chart, there may be room to add one more piece on the blue line, perhaps even a high-end “veteran” piece. But, otherwise, the depth chart is looking fairly set.
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
On Tuesday, the Seattle Kraken announced the trade of defenseman Brian Dumoulin to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Anaheim’s 2026 fourth-round draft pick. Dumoulin, who signed a two-year contract with the Kraken on July 1, 2023, with an annual cap hit of $3.15 million, played 80 games during the 2023-24 season, scoring six goals and adding 10 assists.
Why did Seattle trade Dumoulin? How do we evaluate the move, and what does it mean for Seattle’s offseason plans? Let’s dive in.
Dumoulin played a valuable role for the Kraken
Before discussing team dynamics, it’s important to note Dumoulin’s solid performance for a Kraken team that fell short of expectations last season. Although he faced initial challenges upon joining the Kraken, Dumoulin quickly established himself as a valuable asset.
Just how valuable was he? While Dumoulin achieved a career high in goals (six), his true impact lies beyond the score sheet. As a defensive defenseman, his effectiveness is measured by how well he suppresses opponent opportunities and shifts momentum in Seattle’s favor.
He excelled in this role last year. According to HockeyViz, with Dumoulin on the ice, the Kraken suppressed opponent shot quality by 11 percent above average. Additionally, the team generated 54.5 percent of the overall shot quality during 5-on-5 play with Dumoulin on the ice, per Natural Stat Trick. Among regular lineup players, none achieved a higher expected goals-for percentage. These on-ice results translated into success; Dumoulin ranked third on the team in on-ice plus-minus at +3, while the team as a whole was at -19.
Although primarily deployed as a third-pair defenseman, Dumoulin earned trust from the coaching staff and often stepped up when injuries required it.
Kraken free agent additions dictate a roster move
Why, then, did Seattle trade Dumoulin if he played such a crucial defensive role? The team’s recent signings in free agency necessitated a move to manage its salary cap.
Shortly after free agency opened on July 1, 2024, the Kraken announced a seven-year contract with defenseman Brandon Montour, averaging $7.14 million annually. This brought the number of established NHL defensemen on the roster to seven: Montour, Dumoulin, Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson, Jamie Oleksiak, Will Borgen, and Ryker Evans.
Within hours, center Chandler Stephenson was also signed to a seven-year deal with an average annual value of $6.25 million. These contracts marked the largest total-value signings in Seattle’s or any Ron Francis-managed team’s history.
Assuming Shane Wright and Evans make the team, these signings left the Kraken with approximately $8.25 million in cap space, with 10 forwards and seven defensemen already signed. Qualified restricted free agents Eeli Tolvanen and Matty Beniers, who are yet to sign, will bring the total number of forwards to 12 once their contracts are finalized.
Here are some possible contracts for Tolvanen and Beniers from two prominent contract projections:
Considering Beniers’ decreased point production in the 2023-24 season, most analysts predict a shorter, so-called “bridge” deal. Using the data points above, a reasonable estimate for a bridge deal might be a three-year, $4.6 million AAV contract.
As for Tolvanen, the prevailing wisdom favors a multi-year deal with an expected cap hit in the $3 million to $4 million range. Let’s use a three-year, $4 million AAV contract as a placeholder for Tolvanen.
If Beniers and Tolvanen were added to Seattle’s salary cap table after their spending spree in free agency, the team would already exceed the cap, even without a 13th (or 14th) forward on the roster.
Even a shorter-term deal for Tolvanen, such as a one-year contract at $3.2 million, would leave insufficient room to add a full-time 13th forward. Something had to give.
The team’s decision to trade Dumoulin
Kraken general manager Ron Francis met with the media after the Montour and Stephenson signings on Monday, July 1. When he was asked if the signings would necessitate further moves, Francis said: “[N]ot at this point,” before noting that “[i]t will depend on… talks … with Matty [Beniers] and [Eeli] Tolvanen.” Any subsequent moves will “depend on where those [contracts] come in… But we have looked at a lot of different scenarios and we feel comfortable we will be under the cap and ready to go when the season starts.”
When Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown asked Francis what he thought of a crowded seven-player blue line, Francis answered “that’s what training camp is for.” Francis continued: “We carry seven normally all season long. So, we felt comfortable with our six before today, and now we feel really good about our seven.”
We were cautious taking these comments at face value, suspecting that disclosing a tight financial position during negotiations could weaken the team’s bargaining stance.
Lo and behold, less than 24 hours later, Seattle announced Dumoulin’s trade to Anaheim, effectively clearing their defensive logjam and fixing their cap situation. With Dumoulin’s $3.15 million cap hit off the books, the team now had $11.4 million in cap space to accommodate Beniers, Tolvanen, and potentially add a 13th forward and seventh defenseman.
Other potential trade candidates, such as Will Borgen ($2.7 million AAV) or Adam Larsson ($4 million AAV), were less straightforward solutions for Seattle’s roster needs. The team likely values them higher and prefers to either retain or trade them under more favorable circumstances. Alternatively, trading a forward like Brandon Tanev ($3.5 million AAV) without a ready replacement could have simply traded one problem for another by creating a new roster vacancy.
Completing the Kraken roster
The cap picture is much clearer following the Dumoulin trade. Allocating $8.6 million total to Beniers and Tolvanen based on our calculations above, the team could then easily add one depth forward and one depth defenseman on minimum contracts and remain under the cap. Consider the following scenario where John Hayden and Cale Fleury assume those roles:
Alternatively, on July 1, the Kraken signed 25-year-old forward Ben Meyers to a one-year contract at a $775,000 cap hit. Bringing six goals in 67 games of NHL experience, Meyers should compete with Hayden to stick with the team as a 13th forward.
On the blue line, the Kraken signed 26-year-old, left-shot defenseman Josh Mahura to an identical one-year, $775,000 minimum contract on July 3. Mahura has 191 games of NHL experience. He was a full-time, third-pair defender for the Florida Panthers in 2022-23, and continued in that role to begin 2023-24 before a lower-body injury knocked him out of the lineup, and he shifted down the depth chart in favor of other options. Mahura should compete with Fleury for the depth defenseman role.
Evaluating the Dumoulin trade
Given Dumoulin’s strong performance in Seattle and reasonable contract term, some might question why the Kraken didn’t secure a better return in the trade. Recent trade trends indicate that deals around this time of year often prioritize cap management over maximizing player value. The Kraken took advantage of that dynamic when it came to acquiring Oliver Brjorkstrand, but were on the other side of it this time.
Here are the completed player-for-pick trades just before or during the first 10 days of free agency over the last three years:
July 2, 2024: Seattle trades LD Brian Dumoulin to Anaheim for a 2026 fourth-round pick.
July 1, 2024: Pittsburgh trades F Reilly Smith (plus salary retention) to New York Rangers for 2025 fifth-round pick and 2027 second-round pick.
June 30, 2024: Montreal trades RD Johnathan Kovacevic to New Jersey for a 2026 fourth-round pick.
July 2, 2023: Tampa Bay trades F Patrick Maroon (plus 20 percent salary retention) to Minnesota for a 2026 seventh-round pick.
July 1, 2023: Dallas trades LD Colin Miller to New Jersey for a 2025 fifth-round pick.
July 1, 2023: Montreal trades Joel Edmundson (plus 50 percent salary retention) to Washington for 2024 third- and seventh-round picks.
July 22, 2022: Columbus trades F Oliver Bjorkstrand to Seattle for 2023 third- and fourth-round picks.
July 13, 2022: Ottawa trades F Connor Brown to Washington for a 2024 second-round pick.
Kovacevic is the most recent comparable for the Dumoulin deal. Kovacevic is a 26-year-old, 6-foot-5, right-shot defenseman who played 62 NHL games in 2022-23 in a third-pair role, tallying 13 points. He is also cheaper than Dumoulin, with just a $766,667 cap hit for one year. Dumoulin is a better player, no doubt, but it is easy to see how the other factors could even out the value based on the acquiring team’s need. Add in that San Jose’s 2026 fourth-round pick is likely to be a better pick than the one secured for Kovacevic return, and the deals look roughly similar.
The 2023 Joel Edmunson trade may be the closest fit in terms of player profile traded in our sample. The return was slightly better in that case, but I attribute that to Montreal’s $1,750,000 salary retention. Edmunson cost Washington approximately half what Dumoulin will cost against the cap.
The 2023 Colin Miller trade is another comparable deal. Again, Dumoulin is the better player, but Miller was cheaper ($1.85 million AAV for one-year), and he brought a lesser return.
All told, it appears Seattle took a trade in line with what might be expected on the market.
Importantly, Seattle avoided a scenario where they would need to sweeten the deal with prospects or draft picks to move Dumoulin’s contract, similar to Detroit’s experience with Jake Walman, who had two years at $3.4 million average annual value remaining on his deal. Detroit sent a second-round pick to San Jose to facilitate Walman’s trade due to cap constraints.
Revisiting Soucy vs. Dumoulin a year later
All of this made me recall the decision faced by Seattle last offseason whether to re-sign Carson Soucy or sign Brian Dumoulin. Opting for the latter, the team underscored that the shorter term accepted by Dumoulin was important to avoid blocking Ryker Evans. Leap to today, and Evans is ready for the NHL, has a clear path to a role, and the Kraken have a minor draft asset for their troubles.
If the team had instead signed Soucy to the same contract he took in Vancouver, the Kraken would have a player with two years remaining at a $3.25 million annual cap hit. If Soucy had experienced a similarly injury-plagued season in Seattle as he did in Vancouver, moving him may have incurred costs akin to Detroit’s situation with Walman.
Final takeaways
The Dumoulin trade was a necessary step to navigate Seattle’s cap situation while finalizing contracts with restricted free agents Beniers and Tolvanen. Given their current cap space, the deal does not portend additional acquisitions, beyond depth signings, unless the Kraken move out additional existing player contracts in the interim.
Could Seattle have secured a better return for Dumoulin if it had more cap flexibility to hold onto him? Perhaps, but the team prioritized securing targeted players in free agency, placing them in a weaker bargaining position during trade negotiations amidst a depressed summer trade market. In this context, the trade appears fair and aligned with market norms.
* * *
What do you think about the Dumoulin trade and the rest of Seattle’s offseason moves? Do you think the Kraken are done? Do you have anything else you’d like to see the team do? Are the Kraken a better team heading into the 2024-25 season? Let us know in the comments below or X, formerly known as Twitter, @sound_hockey and @deepseahockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
