With the NHL on Olympic break, I have been looking at how tight the league’s standings have been this season. Although they have spread out a bit over the past month-plus, and there is now a buffer after the final wild card team in each conference, things are still compressed. In the Western Conference, that buffer is three points. In the Eastern Conference, it is four points. On Jan. 1, there was a one-point buffer in the East and no buffer in the West, where three teams were tied for the final spot.
With Olympic hockey underway in Milano, Italy, the tournament has again put a spotlight on the three-point standings model. This is the standard model used in international play, as well as in the PWHL.
Standings models explained
Here is how the three-point model works:
Three points for a regulation win.
Two points for an overtime or shootout win.
One point for an overtime or shootout loss.
Zero points for a regulation loss.
The NHL currently uses a two-point model:
Two points for any win, whether in regulation, overtime, or a shootout.
One point for a loss in overtime or a shootout.
Zero points for a regulation loss.
Standings congestion
Although there is now a small buffer between the final wild card spot and the next team, the standings remain tightly bunched.
There is a lot to digest in this chart, but it shows that 14 teams are within four points, plus or minus, of the final wild card spot in each conference during the 2025-26 season. Those 14 teams can reasonably be considered in the playoff mix.
Looking back at the previous four completed seasons, I increased the spread of points until at least 14 teams were in the mix. Over that span, the race for the final playoff spots has become tighter each year, with the current season showing the most congestion.
Overtime on the rise
One major driver of the tight standings is the number of games going beyond regulation. Of the 908 games played so far this season, 233 have ended in overtime or a shootout. That is 25.7 percent of games, the highest rate in NHL history.
Overtime formats have changed several times since being introduced in the 1983-84 season, when 5-on-5 overtime was added. In 1999-00, overtime shifted to 4-on-4, and the “loser” point was introduced. At that time, games could still end in a tie. That changed in 2005-06 with the introduction of the shootout, while 4-on-4 overtime remained.
The current format arrived in 2015-16, when the league moved to 3-on-3 overtime followed by a shootout if needed.
Should the NHL move to the three-point model?
I explored this question in January 2025. At the time, the three-point model showed only minor improvements over the NHL’s two-point system.
With overtime and shootout games continuing to rise, and standings congestion remaining high, it is worth revisiting whether the three-point model would now provide more clarity.
Teams with a red or green line in the chart would either move up or down in the standings with the introduction of the three-point system. There is some movement under the three-point model, but every team currently in a playoff position remains there. Buffalo benefits the most, while Montreal is penalized the most. That outcome aligns with how the three-point model rewards regulation wins.
At the time of writing, Montreal has 21 regulation wins, while Buffalo has 26. Montreal has also played the most overtime games in the Eastern Conference at 19. That boosts Montreal’s position under the two-point model but works against the Habs under the three-point system.
Does the three-point model reduce congestion?
Another way to evaluate the model is by looking at overall standings congestion. Moving from a two-point to a three-point system increases the total points available, so a 1.5x multiplier is used here to normalize the comparison.
Somewhat surprisingly, the three-point model shows very similar congestion in the current season. Completed seasons do show slightly larger spreads, but the difference is modest.
2024-25 data
Since the original analysis, the 2024-25 season has concluded. Below is the movement chart from that season under a three-point model.
There would have been no changes to the playoff teams, but there were shifts that could have affected draft positioning. Seattle would have finished 24th instead of 26th. If the draft lottery had played out the same way, the Kraken would have selected 10th instead of eighth.
That swing could have meant missing out on Jake O’Brien, who leads the Ontario Hockey League in points per game at 1.68.
Would a three-point model be a good choice for the NHL?
The three-point model has minimal impact on which teams make the playoffs, but it does place greater value on regulation wins. That can influence which teams earn home-ice advantage and how teams at the bottom of the standings are ordered for the draft.
Those effects are relatively small and do not resolve the current standings congestion. Over time, however, team behavior could shift simply because regulation wins would be worth three points instead of two.
One clear benefit of the three-point model is consistency. Every game awards three points, regardless of how it ends. Under the two-point system, regulation games award only two total points, while overtime and shootout games award three. That imbalance slightly inflates points percentages.
For example, under the two-point model, the Seattle Kraken hold a .562 points percentage with a 27-20-9 record.
Under the three-point model, overtime and shootout wins are tracked separately, creating a four-part record of W-OTW-OTL-L. The Kraken sit at 21-6-9-20, good for 84 points. With 56 games played and a maximum of 168 points available, Seattle would hold a .500 points percentage.
If you have questions or want to dig deeper into any of the data, drop them in the comments below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
“We’re going streaking! Through the quad, and into the gymnasium!” – Frank Ricard, Old School, 2003
The Seattle Kraken have had an up-and-down season, bouncing between winning and losing streaks. Recently, the crew at Sound Of Hockey held a Mailbag segment on Episode 369 of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. They did not get through every question, but one submission stood out to me and inspired this article.
FMammal asked on the Patreon, “Does it matter if a team is streaky the way the Kraken seem to be, or is the only important thing the point total after all 82 games?”
We are going to take this one level deeper and also explore how streaky teams perform in the playoffs.
Definitions
Let’s start by defining the types of streaks used in this analysis.
Point streak: Three or more consecutive games in which a team earns at least one point in each game. This includes wins of any kind and overtime or shootout losses.
Losing streak: Three or more consecutive games in which a team loses. This includes regulation losses, overtime losses and shootout losses.
Win streak: Three or more consecutive games in which a team wins and earns two points in each game, including regulation, overtime and shootout victories.
To evaluate streakiness and playoff success, I created the following metrics:
Streakiness tier: Low (under 49 games spent in point streaks or losing streaks), Medium (50 to 60 games), High (61 games or more).
Balance ratio: The number of games teams are on point streaks divided by the total number of games on any streak. Any value above 0.50 means a team earned points in more games than it lost while streaking.
Playoff depth score (PDS): Teams earn one point for making the playoffs and one point for each round won. A Stanley Cup champion earns five points. Teams that miss the playoffs earn zero. For example, when Seattle made the playoffs in 2022-23 and lost in the second round, the Kraken earned a PDS of two.
Kraken streaks this season
For this piece, streak data is based on point streaks and losing streaks, unless otherwise noted.
The Kraken rank 13th in the NHL with nine total streaks this season.
The streaks break down as follows:
Five-game point streak (Oct. 9–18): eight of 10 points
Five-game point streak (Oct. 23–Nov. 3): eight of 10 points
Three-game point streak (Nov. 11–15): five of six points
Three-game point streak (Nov. 20–23): five of six points
Six-game losing streak (Nov. 23–Dec. 8): one of 12 points
Four-game losing streak (Dec. 12–18): zero of eight points
10-game point streak (Dec. 20–Jan. 8): 18 of 20 points
Four-game losing streak (Jan. 14–19): one of eight points
Four-game win streak (Jan. 25–31): eight of eight points
It may not feel like it at times, but Seattle has had six point streaks and only three losing streaks. That amounts to 30 games on point streaks and 14 games on losing streaks.
The 10-game point streak ranks sixth in the NHL this season.
Streakiness and playoff results
Data was collected only from seasons in which the Kraken have existed, covering 2021-22 through the current season.
During that span, teams with a balance ratio below 0.50 never made the playoffs. A balance ratio under 0.50 means a team spent more games on losing streaks than point streaks. Losing more games than you win is not a recipe for success.
The heatmap focuses on teams with a balance ratio of 0.51 or higher. The Kraken currently sit at 0.68, based on 30 point-streak games and 14 losing-streak games (30 of 44 games).
Playoff depth score (Number of teams in bucket)
The results seem to align with intuition. Teams with higher balance ratios perform better in the playoffs. There is also a trend showing that playoff depth score improves as streakiness increases for teams above a 0.68 balance ratio.
Balance ratio 0.68–0.84: PDS rises from 1.57 to 1.77, a 12.7 percent increase
Balance ratio 0.85–1.00: PDS rises from 2.25 to 2.60, a 15.6 percent increase
The Kraken currently sit at a 0.68 balance ratio and are trending toward 67 total streak games. That would place them in the High streakiness tier.
Among the 13 teams in that bucket, 12 made the playoffs in the last four seasons, and eight reached at least the second round. The 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers advanced the furthest, losing in the Stanley Cup Final.
Seattle sits on the cutoff line. When teams drop below a 0.68 balance ratio, only eight of 16 made the playoffs. Of those eight, six entered as wild cards and two finished third in their division. In every case, those teams opened the playoffs as underdogs, drawing higher-seeded opponents and facing a steeper path to advancing.
A necessary caveat
This heatmap has a flaw.
As streakiness increases, teams with strong balance ratios are also winning more games overall. That inflates playoff success. Looking at average standings points for teams in the 0.68–0.84 bucket shows the issue clearly.
Low streakiness: 98 points
Medium streakiness: 102 points
High streakiness: 106 points
It would be expected that a 106-point team would perform better in the playoffs than a 98-point team, and that is exactly what is being shown here.
Standings points matter more
Breaking standings points into buckets and slicing them by streakiness tier produces inconsistent results. If streakiness alone drove playoff success, each standings-point bucket would show the same trend. The buckets do not show this.
The consistent signal is simpler as shown in the next chart. As standings points increase, playoff depth scores increase. Better teams tend to go further in the playoffs.
Final takeaway
So, does it matter if a team is streaky, or is the final point total all that matters?
The standings point total matters most.
How a team gets there matters less than the final point total. Streaks can help build momentum, but they ultimately show up in the standings. Make the playoffs, and the slate is mostly clean.
Streakiness only becomes an issue when losing streaks pile up. As long as the Kraken keep their balance ratio at or above 0.68, they are positioning themselves to qualify and avoid the most difficult first-round matchups.
Some bonus charts
As part of this research, I pulled additional streak data to provide more context. The charts below show how the Kraken have compared to league averages over the past four seasons in terms of their longest winning, point and losing streaks.
As the season continues, the focus should remain on the standings rather than the emotional swings that come with streaky play. If Seattle keeps earning points at its current rate, the path to the playoffs remains clear, regardless of how bumpy the ride feels along the way.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
With Berkly Catton on the shelf for the foreseeable future, out week-to-week with an upper-body injury, it puts a pause to his much anticipated rookie season.
It was promising to see him out with a red sweater at morning skate on Sunday morning, but coach Lane Lambert said he’s still pretty far from a return.
20 games (well, 21 now) into his NHL career, the 19-year-old remains one of the youngest players in the league. Yet, it’s looking more and more like he will stay with the team for the entire season.
There are a lot of high hopes for Catton among Kraken faithful, with many thinking his playmaking abilities would pay dividends right away for a team that has struggled to find a consistent source of offense. In certain ways he has helped in this regard, but the player who once scored 54 goals in a season in the WHL has yet to find the back of the net as a pro, so the scoring touch hasn’t yet translated.
Obviously, the first 20 games are not going to define the next 20, the next 200 or an entire career. Not all development paths are created equal, but this is a large enough sample size to begin comparing and contrasting.
So, while his season is on pause, let’s take some time to compare Catton’s first 20 games with the other two Kraken first-rounders to reach that mark: Matty Beniers and Shane Wright.
Catton’s first 20
The Kraken had the option of sending Catton back to the Spokane Chiefs for another season, where he did not have much left to prove, or keeping him in the NHL for a full year and burning a season of his entry-level contract.
Drafted No. 8 overall by the Kraken in 2024, the decision to have him spend his first season in the pro ranks was a heavily calculated one by the front office and coaching staff, who felt it was in his best interest to stay in the NHL and learn the ropes a little earlier than normal.
Catton has experienced some ups and downs to start his NHL career. He came out of the gates hot with three assists in his first five games, including an assist in his debut.
But he went quiet over his next 15, recording only two helpers. He’s totaled 17 shots on goal so far with some quality chances, but he just hasn’t been able to finish.
He’s getting close, though, and gaining confidence along the way. Here’s one of those opportunities he had against the Islanders on Nov. 23.
Golden opportunity for Berkly Catton to get his first NHL goal, but Rittich shuts it down.
Catton has spent the majority of his young career playing on a line with Jordan Eberle and the aforementioned Wright, but he has also seen his fair share of different combinations—six in total, according to MoneyPuck.
He was averaging a little more than 12 minutes per night, with that number fluctuating game-to-game, as it often does for players his age.
Comparing it to Wright and Beniers
Wright, drafted No. 4 overall by the Kraken in 2022, split his first 20 NHL games across three seasons from 2022-23 to 2024-2025. He spent time in the OHL, AHL and at World Juniors between his NHL debut and reaching the 20-game mark.
When he was on the ice with the Kraken during those early stints, he produced at roughly the same pace he is producing at now, totaling five goals and two assists while getting about 11 minutes a game. It took Wright until the eighth game of his career to score his first NHL goal, memorably against Montreal.
While Wright hasn’t been the world-breaker he was hyped to be during his junior career, he has still developed into a solid NHL producer, with 63 points in 124 games.
Matty Beniers, meanwhile, is much more of an outlier when it comes to early-career production for the Kraken. His Rookie of the Year award and scoring in just his second ever game underscore that point.
Through his first 20 games, 10 at the end of the 2021-22 season and 10 in 2022-23, Beniers averaged nearly a point per game at seven goals and 10 assists. He was playing more than 18 minutes per night, a luxury that came when the Kraken were just starting out and building their foundation.
What’s to come…
In terms of production, it’s safe to say Catton’s first 20 games looked far more like Wright’s than Beniers’, although his path to 20 has been far more linear than that of Wright. While Catton is probably the most offensively gifted player of the three, it was always going to take something monumental to match Beniers’ first-year totals.
Many different factors play into these development paths. Top picks are always given plenty of runway, and Catton, like the rest of the Kraken’s first-rounders (all of whom are still under the age of 23), undoubtedly has way more time to become the player he was drafted to be. Benchmarks like these simply give context for what may come next.
So when he gets back, how do you think the next 20 games will look for Catton?
Welcome to the December edition of Strive for 95. The Seattle Kraken did what was needed in November and remain on pace for 95 points. The Kraken sit in the second wild card spot and have played only 24 games, tied for the fewest in the NHL with two other teams.
Seattle is on a short break and will not play again until Thursday. At that point, they will have played the fewest games of any NHL team. Having games in hand is a good thing, especially when you are already in a playoff position. All stats and standings are based on the month of November and current as of Nov. 30 unless otherwise stated.
I feel like I say it every month, but this was another roller coaster of a stretch.
November recap
The month started well with three points in the first two games. Then San Jose handed Seattle its worst loss of the season, a 6-1 defeat. Joey Daccord was pulled in that game and was placed on injured reserve days later, though the injury was believed to have happened during practice. With Philipp Grubauer and Matt Murray set to split the net, Kraken fans held their breath expecting a slide. That never came. Grubauer and Murray combined for six starts and earned nine points. Watching the Kraken stay competitive regardless of who is in net was a huge confidence boost. Grubauer finished the month with a .917 save percentage, while Murray posted a .939.
Murray was injured in the second matchup against San Jose, though, just as Daccord returned from IR. Spirits were still high, and Seattle earned five points on a four-game road swing. That is where the Kraken’s lack of scoring caught up with them as they dropped the final two games of the month in regulation to Dallas and Edmonton.
Over the last six games, Seattle scored only nine goals and was shut out twice. One shutout came against the New York Islanders on the second leg of a back-to-back. Miraculously, Daccord also recorded a shutout, sending the game to a shootout. Seattle fell 1-0, but it snapped a streak of 15 straight regulation losses in the second leg of back-to-back games. Their previous point in a second game of a back-to-back came on Mar. 21, 2024, in an overtime loss to Arizona.
Seattle posted a 6-5-3 record for 15 points in 14 games, two points under their November target. They were two points over target in October, so the overall pace remains on track for 95.
Updated tiers
As of Nov. 30, every NHL team is within striking distance of a playoff spot. Nashville sits last in the league but is only seven points out. The East is even tighter, with all teams within five points of a spot. Both the Playoff Bound and Tanker tiers were reduced to five and four teams, reflecting how tightly packed the standings have become.
Bolded teams are teams the Kraken play this month. ‘x2’ indicates the Kraken face that team twice. Up and down arrows show teams that moved between tiers.
Notes on tier movement
Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay jumped to the Playoff Bound tier after an 11-3 month and is currently on a seven-game win streak. Boston moved up after a 9-5 month that lifted them to second in the division, though they have played 27 games, and others hold games in hand. Florida and Toronto dropped from the Playoff Bound tier, with both teams four points out of a playoff spot and hovering around .500.
Metropolitan Division: Washington was the only change. The Capitals went 9-4-2 and won seven of their last eight. The push only moved them to third in the division, which is solid but not enough to justify a Playoff Bound spot with three teams right behind them and Philadelphia and Pittsburgh each holding two games in hand. Another strong month could move them back up, but for now the standings are too tight.
Central Division: Shame, shame, shame. I got it wrong last month, so this division needed a reset. Dallas, second overall in the NHL, moved back to the Playoff Bound tier. Utah fell back to earth with a 4-8-3 month and now sits one spot out of a playoff position. Minnesota rebelled against their Tankers label by going 11-1-2 and rose to the very top of the Bubble tier. Winnipeg fell to the Bubble tier with eight losses in November and arthroscopic knee surgery for Connor Hellebuyck that will sideline him four to six weeks. St. Louis moved up to the Bubble tier after earning points in 11 of 15 games. They are 0-7 in overtime and shootout games, which should even out at some point. Their negative 23 goal differential is second worst in the league, but 10 of their last 11 games in November have been one-goal contests.
Pacific Division: Anaheim leads the division with 31 points. Los Angeles has the same point total but trails in regulation wins. That is the lowest point total to lead any division, so both remain in the Bubble tier. Vegas went 5-4-5 and dropped to third, removing them from the Playoff Bound tier. With no clear front-runner, the Playoff Bound tier remains empty. San Jose continued to surprise with a 9-5-1 month and moved up to the Bubble tier.
Overtime games
A key reason for the tight standings is the surge in overtime games. Through Nov. 30, 27.9 percent of games have required overtime.
Over the last eight full seasons, the average was 22.1 percent. This season’s rate is a 5.8 percent increase. Sound Of Hockey’s John Barr found this is the highest percentage since overtime was reintroduced 42 years ago.
Through 360 games, this is the fewest # of games that have ended in regulation since the NHL (re)introduced overtime games in 1983-84. pic.twitter.com/0IjP3fLGMB
December offers Seattle its most favorable travel schedule. The Kraken will travel 5,302 miles, all within the Western Conference. Their longest trip is a four-game swing, with three of those games in California, which minimizes travel. With 13 games scheduled, the average travel per game is 408 miles, the lowest of any month. April has the fewest travel miles, but that is mainly because the Kraken play only nine games that month.
The Kraken have two sets of back-to-back games to close the month as they try to snap their 17-game losing streak in the second leg. Both back ends come against Pacific Division opponents, giving Seattle a chance to gain ground while preventing others from doing the same. In total, the Kraken play 10 Western Conference teams in December, making this a pivotal month.
Playoff Bound tier
Colorado visits Seattle for the first of three meetings. The Avalanche have been dominant with just one regulation loss all season. The target for this game is one point.
Bubble tier
With the standings extremely tight, 23 teams fall into this tier and only eight points separate them. Minnesota leads this group with 33 points. St. Louis, Florida, and Toronto sit at 25. Seattle has nine games against Bubble teams. They face eight Bubble tier opponents this month: Detroit, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Utah, Anaheim, Edmonton, San Jose, and two against Los Angeles. The target for these games is 11 points.
Tanker tier
Seattle has three games against Tanker tier teams: Buffalo and Vancouver at home, and Calgary on the road. The target is four points.
Target win percentages
With the increase in Bubble-tier teams, the target point percentages were adjusted to keep Seattle on pace for 95 points. The overall target for the month of December is 16 points.
Wrapping up
Seattle’s next game is Thursday, Dec. 4, in a rematch with Edmonton. With five teams within two points of the Kraken, they could find themselves outside the playoff picture by puck drop. They will still hold two to four games in hand over every Western Conference team, giving them a chance to climb back quickly while flying under the radar a bit.
Seattle ended the month with a shutout loss to Edmonton, but November was a solid month overall. With four days off before their next game, you can imagine the team will focus on two areas: improving special teams, which went 0-for-6 on the power play and 0-for-2 on the penalty kill, and generating more scoring chances.
The Kraken have proved they can shut teams down, allowing just 2.63 goals per game, which ranks fifth in the NHL. If they can pair that steady defensive play with a bit more scoring, they will stay on pace for 95 points. Comment below on where you think the offensive spark will come from.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Now that Thanksgiving has passed, we can finally, confidently, and with absolutely no doubt declare who will make the playoffs. Just kidding, but historically about 75 percent of teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving go on to the postseason, so the odds are in those teams’ favor.
Last month we reviewed teams in playoff position on Halloween to see if an earlier date could serve as an indicator of playoff contention.
Here is a breakdown of how each standings position fares in reaching the postseason at Thanksgiving.
As expected, teams in first and second place in their division fare better, but with more than 60 percent success from wild card teams and third-place teams, these spots still reach the playoffs more often than not.
Here is how the playoff picture looks at the Thanksgiving checkpoint.
Kraken update on playoff position
The Kraken improved their standing from the last wild card spot at Halloween to third in the Pacific Division on Thanksgiving.
It may have been easy to write off their strong start in October, but Seattle has continued to accrue points by playing tight, defensive games. Because of this, they are tied for eighth in the NHL with 28 points. Their new defensive identity has made them a tough team to score against, allowing 2.57 goals per game, second only to the Colorado Avalanche at 2.09.
Over the last eight full NHL seasons, teams sitting in third place in their division at this juncture have made the playoffs 62.5 percent of the time.
On Thanksgiving Eve, the Kraken were holding second place but fell to the Dallas Stars. Vegas gained a point in a shootout loss to Ottawa, and both Seattle and Vegas now sit at 28 points. Vegas holds the tiebreaker with nine regulation wins compared with Seattle’s seven. Historically, second place in the division fares best, making the playoffs 90.6 percent of the time.
Standings differences since Halloween
There were five teams in playoff position at Halloween that now sit outside the picture: the Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Winnipeg Jets. That means 68.8 percent (11 of 16) of teams in position on Halloween remain in position at Thanksgiving. This roughly matches the Halloween historical success rate of 66.4 percent, which surprised me.
Crowded standings
With about 75 percent of the season remaining, no playoff spot is secure. While Thanksgiving can serve as an indicator, it is important to examine other factors. As John Barr pointed out in his 10 for 10 series, the standings are crowded this year.
In the Eastern Conference, the standings are extremely tight, with every team within five points of a playoff spot. Four teams are tied for the final wild card spot, so the playoff picture can shift any night.
In the Western Conference, the standings are starting to separate, but five teams remain within five points of a playoff spot. The Avalanche, with a league-leading 39 points, are pulling away. They have one regulation loss this season and are riding a 10-game win streak.
In the Pacific Division, the top four teams are bunched up. The Anaheim Ducks (yes, the Ducks) lead with 29 points. Vegas, Seattle, and Los Angeles are even at 28, with tiebreakers needed to sort them. Vegas holds the edge in regulation wins, while Seattle holds a slight advantage over LA in regulation and overtime wins.
Overtime games
This season, fans have noticed the Kraken going to overtime more often, and they are right. Seattle has appeared in 10 overtime games through 23 contests (43.5 percent). Before this season, they went to overtime in 21 percent of regular-season games. This big jump is most likely tied to their defensive style, which has resulted in low-scoring games.
Through 360 games, this is the fewest # of games that have ended in regulation since the NHL (re)introduced overtime games in 1983-84. pic.twitter.com/0IjP3fLGMB
Although the Kraken are tied for first in OT appearances with 10, the entire league is seeing more overtime games. The NHL is at 28 percent of games needing extra time, a six percent increase over the last eight full seasons. The Pacific Division leads the charge with 34.2 percent. Eight NHL teams have nine or more OT games, and five of them are in the Pacific Division.
The high number of OT appearances has both helped and hurt Seattle. The drawback appears in regulation wins, where they have seven, tied with LA for the lowest among playoff-position teams. This could matter later, as regulation wins are the top tiebreaker.
On the positive side, Seattle has banked 14 points in their 10 OT games. They are 4-3 in 3-on-3 overtime but winless in shootouts, dropping all three. It is easy to get frustrated by shootouts, but they have no bearing in the playoffs aside from the extra standings point. Even with no shootout wins, Seattle sits just one win below .500 in OT and SO games.
The bigger indicator of playoff success is regulation wins. For example, in Seattle’s only playoff appearance, they entered as the first wild card and faced the heavily favored Avalanche. Even though Colorado won the Central Division, Seattle had more regulation wins (37 to 36). It was a closer matchup than many realized, and the Kraken knocked out the defending Stanley Cup champions in seven games.
The takeaway: do not get hung up on OT or SO results. Take the point and move on. Seattle’s results in extra-time games should even out as the season progresses, and the steady stream of loser points should keep them in the race just as it has through the first quarter of the season.
Wrapping up
The Kraken still have work to do, but they are in a better position than many preseason rankings predicted. They have continued to find success despite injuries and inconsistent scoring. Seattle is a hard team to play against, and its experience in close games should help if (or when) the Kraken return to the playoffs. That is especially true in playoff overtime, where play stays at 5-on-5.
Next up is a home-and-home against the Oilers, starting Saturday at Climate Pledge Arena. Edmonton will have a chip on its shoulder after a rough 8-3 loss to the Dallas Stars. This is the second of four matchups this season. Seattle won the first one and held Connor McDavid without a point or shot on net.
What do you think of the Thanksgiving cutoff as an indicator? Leave your comments below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
We’re a quarter of the way into the NHL season, which makes this a perfect moment to check in on attendance trends around the league. Some teams are up, some are down, and some are just… being themselves. Let’s take a look.
As always, a couple of quick disclaimers. Just because the NHL has crossed the quarter mark doesn’t mean every team has played a quarter of its home schedule. For example, the Toronto Maple Leafs have already played 15 home games compared to just six on the road. When comparing attendance year over year, I always use the same number of games for each team. So in Toronto’s case, I’m looking at their first 15 home games this season versus their first 15 from last season, regardless of when those games fell on the calendar.
Attendance numbers are team-reported and represent tickets distributed, not necessarily the number of people who actually walked through the doors. And none of this is about dunking on teams or fan bases; there are a ton of factors that impact attendance, like team performance, pricing, schedule quirks, weather, and even local sports overlap.
Average NHL attendance
Leaguewide average attendance is up a modest 0.5 percent. In a league where many buildings are already at or near capacity, even small gains are a good sign. Keep in mind, the uneven number of home games played so far can nudge the leaguewide average in different directions. For example, Toronto’s 15 home dates at roughly 18,500 fans per game weigh more heavily than Utah’s eight home games at around 12,500. The effect is small, but it’s worth mentioning, especially this early in the season.
Here’s a look at team-by-team change based on the same number of games last season:
Utah’s attendance bump is tied to arena upgrades that added roughly 1,350 seats. They still play in the league’s smallest building, but there is ongoing chatter about future facilities for both the Jazz and Mammoth, suggesting this arena’s small capacity is only temporary. Meanwhile, Carolina, Montreal, and Washington are slightly down due to seat reconfigurations and building renovations.
Looking at sellouts
The NHL remains very much a “sellout league.” More than half the games end up as virtual or actual sellouts, and several teams are at full capacity pretty much every night. That’s great for business, but it also limits how much average attendance can grow. Because of that, sellouts are a helpful metric for understanding movement.
So far, the league is slightly down: 58 percent of games have been sellouts, which trails last year but lines up with the last decade of non-COVID-impacted seasons.
Here’s the team-level breakdown:
Minnesota is the most surprising storyline here. They’re typically around a 90 percent sellout rate but sit at just 15 percent so far, with eight fewer sellouts in their first 13 home games compared to last season. Toronto also stands out, but several of their early home dates went head-to-head with the Blue Jays’ postseason run.
NHL attendance by team and game
Here’s a look at how each team is trending game-to-game:
Some quick thoughts
San Jose’s game-to-game swings are wild, but despite the volatility, they’re still better off than last season. I expect them to stabilize a bit as the year goes on.
Chicago should also see a bump if the on-ice product continues to be as entertaining as it’s been.
Pittsburgh has been a pleasant surprise. Despite preseason predictions that they were headed for a tank, they’ve been in the playoff mix the entire way—something that usually nudges attendance upward over time.
Once again, NHL attendance looks pretty steady overall, with a few interesting wrinkles once you dig into the details. Performance does matter, but the effects typically lag by months—sometimes even full seasons.
Wrapping up
Big picture, attendance across the NHL looks pretty steady so far, with a handful of teams bucking expectations in both directions. As the season rolls on and schedules and performances even out, we should get an even clearer picture of how these trends shake out.
