After almost daily NHL postseason hockey action since the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, this past week has been a long one. The Florida Panthers are finally set to face-off against the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday.
Here is the series schedule:
Game 1: Saturday, June 8 – Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers – 5 p.m. PT
Game 2: Monday, June 10 – Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers – 5 p.m. PT
Game 3: Thursday, June 13 – Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers – 5 p.m. PT
Game 4: Saturday, June 15 – Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers – 5 p.m. PT
Game 5: Tuesday, June 18 – Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers (if needed) – 5 p.m. PT
Game 6: Friday, June 21 – Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers (if needed) – 5 p.m. PT
Game 7: Monday, June 24 – Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers (if needed) – 5 p.m. PT
There’s a ton of distance between Sunrise and Edmonton, but every time the teams travel between Florida and Edmonton and vice-versa, there will be two days of rest. This could extend the series to a maximum of 17 days. It will be interesting to see how this extended schedule affects the rhythm of the players.
How they got to the Final
The Florida Panthers’ path to the Stanley Cup Final was through the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Boston Bruins, and most recently through the Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers. The Panthers have looked like the better team in each series and earned their result. As the higher-seeded team, they will receive home-ice advantage, where they hold a 7-2 record in the playoffs.
The Edmonton Oilers’ road to the Stanley Cup Final started in Los Angeles, then went through Vancouver before a hard-fought series against Dallas. Facing a heavily favored Stars team in the Western Conference Finals, Edmonton looked to be hanging on by a thread at times. But hang on they did, winning three straight to close out the series.
The Florida Panthers swept the season series, but take that with a grain of salt. With only two games, it is really too small of a sample to take anything meaningful away. Here are some interesting notes from those regular-season matchups:
Aleksander Barkov only played one of the two games due to injury. Connor McDavid had two goals in the game Barkov missed (Nov. 20). In the Dec. 16 game with Barkov in the Florida lineup, Connor McDavid was limited to one assist.
Many of the stars for both teams showed up and contributed multiple points in the games between the two teams. However, Matthew Tkachuk was held to a single assist.
In both games, Edmonton started their backup goaltender, former Seattle Thunderbird, Calvin Pickard.
After both games, Edmonton would go on to lose one additional game and then rattle off substantial win streaks. After the Nov. 20 loss, the Oilers won eight straight, and after the Dec. 16 loss, they won 16 straight games.
How they match up
It was mentioned in the previous NHL playoff previews that since Kris Knoblauch’s hiring on Nov. 12, the Edmonton Oilers have been the best team in the NHL. They have amassed 58 wins (regular season plus playoffs). The Florida Panthers are second with 55 wins (regular season plus playoffs).
Florida Panthers (Reg/Playoffs)
Edmonton Oilers (Reg/Playoffs)
Goal Differential
+67 / +16
+56 / +16
Power Play
23.5% / 23.3%
26.3% / 37.3%
Penalty Kill
85.2% / 88.2%
82.2% / 93.9%
Goals For Per Game
3.23 / 3.24
3.56 / 3.50
Goals Against Per Game
2.41 / 2.29
2.88 / 2.61
Shots Per Game
33.7 / 33.2
33.8 / 28.9
Statistically, the teams were pretty even in the regular season. Both can score and prevent goals. Special teams for Edmonton have been elite, scoring 19 power-play goals while killing 93.9 percent of all penalties.
The Edmonton Oilers led the league in shots per game in the regular season with 33.8 but have lost almost five shots per game during the playoffs. Florida, on the other hand, was second in the league and has continued to maintain its shots on goal in the playoffs. In Edmonton’s last game, it only mustered 10 shots against the Stars and played a defense-first style.
When it comes to scoring, both teams are close and averaging over three goals a game in the playoffs. Florida’s top scorer is Tkachuk with 19 points. Edmonton is top heavy and has four players with 20 points or more.
Connor McDavid – 5G, 26A, 31 points
Leon Draisaitl – 10G, 18A, 28 points
Evan Bouchard – 6G, 21A, 27 points
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 6G, 14A, 20 points
Zach Hyman comes into the Final with 14 goals and four assists for 18 points and gets and honorable mention as a top producer for the Oilers. He leads the playoffs in goals.
What they need to do to win
At this point in the season, both teams have a legitimate claim to win the Stanley Cup. Here are some keys for each team to be able to lift hockey’s greatest prize.
Florida Panthers
Continue to roll, they have looked liked the better team in every series.
Play disciplined hockey. The Panthers are not afraid to mix it up, but this year’s playoff team is more reserved than last year’s. Tkachuk and Sam Bennett will do their thing, but they are out there to win games, not to stir up chaos.
Get more solid play of Sergei Bobrovsky.
Edmonton Oilers
Special teams need to continue to click.
Stuart Skinner needs to remain the starter for the entire series and instill confidence for his team.
Edmonton’s game is focused on a high-octane offense, so they need to keep shooting the puck and not fall into a defensive game that can allow a talented Panthers roster a way back into games.
McDavid needs to carry on his scoring ways when up against Barkov.
Prediction
Part of this is going with who I want to root for, as either team has a shot to lift the Cup. Connor McDavid is arguably the best hockey player in the world, and having him win a Stanley Cup checks a major box in his career.
I believe the Edmonton Oilers will hoist the Stanley Cup at home in six games over the Florida Panthers.
Sound Of Hockey Patreon NHL Bracket update
The Sound Of Hockey Patreon NHL Bracket Challenge became a little clearer with the elimination of the Dallas Stars and New York Rangers who were picked in a whopping 60.0 percent of the brackets to win the Stanley Cup.
There are two brackets that correctly picked an Oilers versus Panthers Stanley Cup Final. Congratulations to users mipmipmipmip and friend of the pod, dontgoglove. Both users only have one incorrect series pick, but user mipmipmipmip correctly predicted the length of three series and earned nine bonus points to put themselves in first place with 279 points. If Edmonton hoists the Stanley Cup, mipmipmipmip will win the bracket challenge.
However, we will have a tie-break situation on our hands if the Florida Panthers win the Stanley Cup. With possibly the best bracket name, Garth’s life jacket currently has 179 points and has the Panthers winning the Cup. A Panthers win would give Garth’s life jacket 100 points and move them into a 279-point tie with mipmipmipmip.
If you do not get the reference to Garth’s life jacket, I highly recommend checking out Tenny’s talks on YouTube, where Ryker Garth Evans can be seen wearing a life jacket in a kiddie pool.
Sound Of Hockey picks update
John, Darren, Curtis and myself (Blaiz) picked the Dallas Stars to win the Cup and were incorrect. Shame, Shame, Shame. Cameron Riggers picked the Edmonton Oilers to win the Stanley Cup and is looking pretty smart at the moment.
To save some face, Curtis and I did pick the Panthers to make it to the Stanley Cup Final. One out of two is not bad.
Stanley Cup Pick
Cameron Riggers
Edmonton in 7
Darren Brown
Edmonton in 6
John Barr
Panthers in 5
Curtis Isacke
Panthers in 6
Blaiz Grubic
Edmonton in 6
Wrap Up
It is an exciting time when the Stanley Cup will come out, and a new champion will be crowned. There are two obvious front runners for the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the playoff MVP, in Connor McDavid for the Edmonton Oilers and Aleksander Barkov for the Florida Panthers. Whichever of those two players has the better series probably leads his team to a championship. Sit back and enjoy the ride.
For a quick AHL update, the Coachella Valley Firebirds are up 3-1 in the AHL Western Conference Finals and could be headed for a repeat of last season’s Calder Cup Finals against the Hersey Bears. The Hersey Bears are also up 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals, so both teams still have work to do but are in good positions.
With four teams remaining, the conference finals are upon us. In the second round, we saw some great hockey with three series going to six games and one going to seven. For full transparency, I did not do well at predicting the outcomes in my series previews for Round 2, picking just one correct winner out of four. Oops! The Edmonton Oilers were the only correct pick, but I had called out that the remaining series had no clear-cut favorites.
Now, we will preview the two conference finals series, give an update on the Sound Of Hockey Patreon Bracket Challenge, and provide some additional Stanley Cup predictions from the Sound Of Hockey crew.
Onto the conference finals! We have the Dallas Stars taking on the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference, and the New York Rangers taking on the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference.
Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers
Season series
Nov. 2 – Dallas won 4-3
Feb. 17 – Edmonton won 4-3 in overtime
Apr. 3 – Dallas won 5-0
The Dallas Stars won the season series 2-1 with the most recent victory being a 5-0 shellacking. The Oilers only win against the Stars was in overtime, and three-on-three (where the high-flying Oilers theoretically have an advantage) no longer exists in the playoffs.
Road to the Western Conference finals
The Dallas Stars finished the regular season with 113 points, good for best in the West and one point behind the Presidents’ Trophy winners, the New York Rangers. Dallas has beaten out the last two Stanley Cup champions in the first two rounds, knocking off the Vegas Golden Knights in Round 1 and the Colorado Avalanche in Round 2.
After an abysmal start to the Edmonton Oilers season, a change was made that brought in Kris Knoblauch to take over the head coaching job. Since his hiring on Nov. 12, the Oilers have been the best team in the NHL, matching their captain’s jersey number with 97 points.
The Oilers made quick work of the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1, winning the best-of-7 series in five games. The only game Edmonton lost in that series came in overtime. The second round brought more of a challenge in the Vancouver Canucks, who pushed the series to its seven-game limit. Even so, it felt like it was just a matter of time before the Oilers would prevail, being that they heavily outshot the Canucks 203 to 149 in the series.
How they match up
Edmonton and Dallas are very close in goals scored, goals against, and power play percentage. The biggest gap is in the penalty kill percentage, where Edmonton was 15th overall during the regular season, and Dallas was eighth.
Dallas Stars
Edmonton Oilers
Goals scored
294 (3rd)
292 (4th)
Goals against
232 (8th)
236 (10th)
Power play percentage
24.2% (6th)
26.3% (4th)
Penalty kill percentage
82.0% (8th)
79.5% (15th)
Dallas will focus on improving special teams play
In the postseason, the gap in penalty kill percentage has flipped and widened, with the Oilers’ penalty killing percentage now a league best at 91.4 percent. Dallas has struggled in this department with a 69.2-percent kill rate.
This statistic is slightly misleading, as Dallas has been the least penalized team remaining in the playoffs with only 5:13 of penalty minutes (PIM’s) per game. The next closest team is the Rangers, who have almost double what Dallas has at 10:12 PIM’s per game. Special teams will be important in this series, though, and Dallas will need to regain its regular-season form on the PK to slow down Edmonton’s lethal power play that has hummed along at 37.5 percent in the playoffs.
Edmonton goaltending
Edmonton is averaging 2.75 goals against per game, which is highest for the remaining teams. The Oilers have not been confident in the play of Stuart Skinner and even gave the nod to former Seattle Thunderbird goaltender, Calvin Pickard, for Games 4 and 5 against Vancouver. Skinner has since reclaimed the net, winning Games 6 and 7.
For Edmonton to advance, this needs to be Skinner’s crease going forward. Even though the 2.75 GAA is high, it is actually lower than Edmonton’s regular-season total of 2.88. Edmonton lives and dies by the success of its offense.
Prediction
Even with Edmonton’s high-powered offense, Dallas just eclipsed the Oilers with 294 goals in the regular season, good for third in the NHL (Edmonton was fourth at 292). Dallas has played harder competition in the first two rounds, and with its disciplined play and incredible depth, I believe the Stars will limit Edmonton’s special teams impact.
Prediction: Dallas in 6 games
New York Rangers vs. Florida Panthers
Former Seattle Kraken Alex Wennberg is now a member of the New York Rangers. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Season series
Dec. 29 – Florida won 4-3
Mar. 4 – Florida won 4-2
Mar. 23 – New York won 4-3 in a shootout
The New York Rangers lost the season series to Florida 1-2-0. There are only three teams the Rangers lost to twice during the regular season, and Florida is one of those teams; the other two are the Washington Capitals and the Columbus Blue Jackets. New York surrendered points in all three games to Florida, who’s lone win came via a shootout, which again will not apply in the playoffs.
How they match up
New York Rangers
Florida Panthers
Regulation wins
43
42
Goal differential
+53 (7th)
+68 (1st)
Goals-against average
2.76 (7th)
2.42 (1st tied)
Road to the conference finals
The Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy for having the best record in the regular season with 114 points. They were the only team to sweep their first-round matchup against the Washington Capitals and looked poised to sweep the Carolina Hurricanes after going up 3-0 in Round 2, but then lost Games 4 and 5 before winning the series in six games. The Hurricanes almost pushed the series to seven games, entering the third period in Game 6 with a 3-1 lead, but Chris Kreider scored a natural hat trick in under nine minutes to put the Rangers ahead for good.
The Florida Panthers are making a return appearance to the conference finals. After surprising last year as the second wild-card team, they come in this year as the No. 1 seed from the Atlantic Division and have surprised nobody by reaching this stage. Florida had to go through two tough teams in the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1 and the Boston Bruins, for the second straight year, in Round 2. The Panthers finished the season third overall in the Eastern Conference with 110 points behind the Carolina Hurricanes (111 points) and their conference finals opponent, the New York Rangers (114 points).
Prediction
Florida proved to be the New York Rangers’ hardest opponent during the regular season, but again, the regular season no longer matters. Both teams have played well in the postseason, getting great goaltending and scoring above 3.5 goals per game.
Florida’s goaltending statistics were second in the league during the regular season, but this is skewed a bit as their backup played most of the “easy” games and turned in a .925 save percentage. Sergei Bobrovsky had a great season with a .915 save percentage and has continued his solid play in the playoffs. Barring an injury, Bobrovsky will play every game. Even so, I will have to give the goaltending edge to Ranger netminder, Igor Shesterkin, who has been lights out with a .931 save percentage in the postseason. The Rangers have to shake the dreaded Presidents’ Trophy curse, and Florida has what it takes to beat them.
Prediction: Florida in 7 games
Sound Of Hockey Patreon Bracket challenge update
Sound Of Hockey Patreon members were able to participate in the NHL Bracket Challenge, and there are some talented (and/or lucky) Sound Of Hockey supporters out there. Amazingly, 16.4 percent of the brackets correctly picked the four conference finals teams.
Here are some other tidbits of how the Sound Of Hockey Patreon members filled out their brackets:
Percentage of conference finals’ teams picked to win the Stanley Cup:
Dallas Stars – 45.5%
New York Rangers – 14.5%
Edmonton Oilers – 7.3%
Florida Panthers – 3.6%
With New York and Dallas being the top two teams in the regular season, it is fitting they ranked 1 and 2 in Patreon members selecting them to win. Dallas was the Sound Of Hockey fan-favorite pick by a long shot.
Percentage of Stanley Cup Final matchups picked:
Dallas Stars vs. New York Rangers – 32.7%
Dallas Stars vs. Florida Panthers – 5.5%
Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers- 5.5%
Edmonton Oilers vs. New York Rangers 3.6%
There are currently two perfect brackets remaining. Congratulations to IcedKraken, who has Dallas over Florida, and GianniKraken, who has Dallas winning over New York.
There are seven brackets left that have a shot at winning the bracket challenge:
If Dallas wins over Florida – IcedKraken
If Dallas wins over New York – GianniKraken
If Edmonton wins over Florida – mipmipmipmip
If Edmonton wins over New York – PhantomX182
If New York wins over Dallas – Rob the Crow Ally
If New York wins over Edmonton – stdbone
If Florida wins over either Dallas or Edmonton – “Garths life jacket”
If you would like to support Sound Of Hockey, you can become a Patreon member here.
Sound Of Hockey staff picks
Name
Western Conf. Pick
Eastern Conf. Pick
Stanley Cup Pick
John Barr
Dallas Stars in 6
New York Rangers in 7
Dallas Stars
Cameron Riggers
Edmonton Oilers in 6
New York Rangers in 7
Edmonton Oilers
Darren Brown
Dallas Stars in 5
New York Rangers in 6
Dallas Stars
Curtis Isacke
Dallas Stars in 6
Florida Panthers in 6
Dallas Stars
Blaiz Grubic
Dallas Stars in 6
Florida Panthers in 7
Dallas Stars
Wrap up
Based on the NHL bracket picks and the Sound Of Hockey crew’s picks, the Dallas Stars are a heavy favorite to win the cup. In reality, all four remaining teams are extremely talented and have what it takes. The conference finals will be two fun series to watch, so sit back and enjoy.
Game 1 between the Rangers and Panthers is Wednesday evening, and Oilers/Stars gets underway Thursday.
May 22 – 5:00 pm Pacific – Panthers at Rangers – Game 1
May 23 – 5:30 pm Pacific – Oilers at Stars – Game 1
Feel free to comment below with your picks for the conference finals and eventual Stanley Cup champion.
The Dallas Stars have punched their ticket to the second round after winning a decisive Game 7 on Sunday night, making them the last of eight teams to advance through the opening series. We reviewed the Eastern Conference here, and in this article we will preview the two upcoming Western Conference series. As with the Eastern Conference preview, we will call out potential unrestricted free agents that have some offensive upside. This can give Kraken fans some players to keep an eye on while watching the rest of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Out of all first-round series there was only one “upset,” and that was the Colorado Avalanche over the Winnipeg Jets. The Vegas Golden Knights had Dallas on the ropes but ultimately took a first-round exit, guaranteeing a new Stanley Cup champion will be crowned this year. Meanwhile, there are only two Canadian teams remaining, and since they are playing each other, there will be one in the Western Conference Finals and one hitting the golf course.
Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche
Former Dallas Stars defenseman Jamie Oleksiak. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Season series between Colorado and Dallas
Nov. 18 – Colorado won 6-3
Jan. 1 – Colorado won 5-4 in overtime
Feb. 27 – Colorado won 5-1
Apr. 7 – Dallas won 7-4
The Colorado Avalanche won the season series 3-1. More impressively, Colorado scored four or more goals in each game.
The Avs stumbled into the playoffs, losing seven of their last 11 games. Their offense woke up in their first-round matchup with the Winnipeg Jets, though, and scored five or more goals in every game. That came against a Winnipeg team whose save percentage and goals-against average were the best in the NHL during the regular season.
The Dallas Stars are coming off a hard-fought seven-game series with the defending Stanley Cup champions. Dallas showed resilience in coming back from a 0-2 start in the series. Wyatt Johnston has had an amazing sophomore season, leading the Stars in goals with 32 during the regular season. His skill has been on full display in the playoffs, and he has scored some big timely goals and led the team with four goals and seven points in Round 1.
Jake Oettinger was also strong in the first round, posting an impressive 1.95 GAA and .925 save percentage while playing all seven games of the series.
Trade Deadline acquisitions
The Trade Deadline was a busy time for the Avalanche, who added Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Duhaime, Yakov Trenin, and Sean Walker. They also moved on from Ryan Johansen, but had to part ways with Bowen Byram to shore up the second-line center role with Mittelstadt. Mittelstadt had a bit of a slow start but has blossomed in the playoffs with six points in five games.
Trenin and Duhaime have retooled Colorado’s fourth line. Walker is playing a depth role and helping out on the third defensive pairing.
The Dallas Stars added to their defensive corps at the deadline by trading for Chris Tanev. Former Kamloops Blazer, Logan Stankoven, also cracked the Stars lineup and has definitely turned some heads while chipping in 14 points in 24 games.
Key UFA’s to watch during this series
Series outcome
This series has two Stanley Cup favorites going toe-to-toe, and fans should sit back and enjoy the ride. With the recency bias of Colorado handling Winnipeg, we think they have the slight edge going into the series.
Prediction: Colorado wins in seven games (though I will be pulling for Dallas to win)
Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers
Former Kraken defenseman Carson Soucy, now with the Vancouver Canucks. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Season series between Vancouver and Edmonton
Oct. 11 – Vancouver won 8-1
Oct. 14 – Vancouver won 4-3
Nov. 6 – Vancouver won 6-3
Apr. 13 – Vancouver won 3-1
The Vancouver Canucks swept the season series winning all four games. However, three of those games took place during the first month of the season when Edmonton could do nothing right.
Canucks goaltending
The Canucks all-star goaltender, Thatcher Demko, sustained a knee injury in Game 1 of Vancouver’s first-round matchup with the Nashville Predators. He is listed as week-to-week and has yet to participate in practice, but has been seen skating. Coach Rick Tocchet has ruled Demko out for at least Game 1 of the series.
Furthermore, Vancouver’s backup goaltender Casey DeSmith was also injured in Game 3 in the first round series. Arturs Silovs was thrust into action and has thrived with a 1.70 GAA and .938 save percentage in three games. He seems to have taken the de facto starting job for now, even as DeSmith has recovered from injury. Silovs is set to start game one vs Edmonton.
Having uncertainty in your goaltending is not something you want as you set to start a playoff series against the top two NHL point leaders over the past nine year. Connor McDavid has scored 982 points and Leon Draisaitl has scored 841. Nobody else in the NHL has scored even 800 points in the last nine years
Edmonton on a roll
The Edmonton Oilers’ standings points from the regular season are a bit misleading. On Nov. 6, after the Oilers lost to Vancouver, they had five total points and were in 31st place. They fired Jay Woodcroft, hired Kris Knoblauch, and since then, they have have been on a tear, earning 99 points to finish the season, best in the NHL over that span. The Oilers continued on that pace into the first round of the playoffs, disposing of the Los Angeles Kings in five games.
Trade Deadline
To prepare for the playoffs, Vancouver swung for the fences and traded for center Elias Lindholm. However, he has not panned out as well as the Canucks front office imagined. His 0.46 points per game (12 in 26 games) is well below his career average of 0.68 points per game.
The Edmonton Oilers acquired Adam Henrique to help round out their top six. Henrique has landed a dream role of playing with Connor McDavid, but his point totals have declined from his time with the Anaheim Ducks.
Series outcome
Although neither team hit home runs with their deadline acquisitions, they are still excellent teams that had success in the regular season. Edmonton has the edge in goals scored per game, power play percentage, and penalty kill percentage.
It should not be overlooked that Vancouver was 4-0 versus Edmonton. The Canucks have the ability to win on any night. Ultimately, though, the carousel in goal is what will cause the Canucks to lose this series.
Key UFA’s to watch during this series
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers win in six games
Second round wrap-up
As with the Eastern Conference, a case could be made for all four teams remaining to be able to hoist the Stanley Cup. It has been speculated all year that a team will have to run the gauntlet to make it out of the East, but the West is no easier. The team that emerges will have gone through battle.
There is not a clear-cut favorite in any of the remaining series, and as a hockey fan, I am here for it. Crack a college soda (or your favorite beverage) and enjoy the playoff hockey as much as you can. If you need more beyond the NHL, the Coachella Valley Firebirds best-of-five series is tied 1-1.
The first round of the NHL’s Stanley Cup Playoffs is in the books and featured goaltending controversies and injuries, two Game 7 thrillers, and another heart-breaking ouster for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now, the hockey world turns its attention to the second round, so we’re putting together a quick pair of preview articles for what to look for in this next set of games, starting in the Eastern Conference.
The Seattle Kraken are already out working on their golf game, but the team’s front office is busy trying to fill the head coaching position as well as finding some needed scoring for next season. Here, we will consider each of the second-round playoff matchups and call out any unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) that might be of interest to the Kraken, focusing on forwards with an offensive touch. Hopefully, that can give you some players to watch while you are unable to root for the Kraken.
New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes
Alex Wennberg playing against the Hurricanes. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Season series between Carolina and New York
Nov. 2 – New York Rangers won 2-1
Jan. 2 – Carolina Hurricanes won 6-1
Mar. 12 – New York Rangers won 1-0
The Rangers also jumped out to a 1-0 series lead with a 4-3 win at Madison Square Garden in Game 1 on Sunday.
New York Rangers overview
The New York Rangers hold the season series edge at 2-1, but that is a little deceiving. In those games, Carolina only gave up four total goals and scored seven on Igor Shesterkin. Plus, Frederik Andersen sat out most of the year due to a blood clotting issue but returned in early March. Since returning, Andersen has played in 15 games (including playoffs) and went 13-2.
The Rangers won the Presidents Trophy for a reason. They scored 3.39 goals per game (seventh in the league during the regular season), have an excellent goaltender in Shesterkin, and their power play and penalty kill are top three in the NHL. Key additions at the deadline were former Seattle Kraken Alex Wennberg and former Columbus Blue Jacket Jack Roslovic. Both of these players are shoring up the depth for New York, but Wennberg is still contributing on 5-on-5, power play, and penalty kill scenarios.
One item of note for Kraken fans, Seattle received New York’s second-round draft pick in 2024 for Wennberg. If New York were to lose this series, four teams would finish above them, and the pick would improve to No. 61 (from No. 65). There are 33 picks in the second round because the Philadelphia Flyers have a compensatory pick for not signing their 2018 first-round draft pick, Jay O’Brien. If the New York Rangers win the series, Seattle’s acquired pick will fall in the 63-65 range.
Carolina Hurricanes overview
The Carolina Hurricanes are no slouch either and finished just three points behind the Rangers. The Hurricanes were eighth in the NHL in scoring in the regular season, have a very good goaltending tandem in Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov, have the second-best power play in the league and the best overall penalty kill. Key additions at the trade detail were Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Guentzel has been a perfect fit with the team’s offense and has scored 29 points in 22 games since arriving in Carolina.
Both of these teams have a legitimate shot at winning the Stanley Cup if they can make it out of the second round. Expect this series to go the distance or close to it.
Key UFA’s to watch during this series:
Prediction: Carolina wins in seven games
Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins
Season series between Florida and Boston
Oct. 30 – Boston Bruins won 3-2 in overtime
Nov. 22 – Boston Bruins won 3-1
Mar. 26 – Boston Bruins won 4-3
Apr. 6 – Boston Bruins won 3-2 in overtime
The Boston Bruins swept the season series, but they were all close games with two being decided in overtime. Both Boston and Florida played better on the road in the season series. The Panthers have home-ice advantage, but does that mean Boston actually has the edge in this series?
The teams are also evenly matched when looking at goals scored, power play, and penalty kill.
The Bruins are more likable than they used to be, thanks to former Kraken Morgan Geekie joining the fold.
Goaltending
The difference in this series could come down to goaltending. As a team, Florida statistically had the best goaltending in the league and relied heavily on Sergei Bobrovsky playing 57 games with Anthony Stolarz playing the remaining 25. Boston’s duo of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark was the fifth-best tandem in the league but had a much more even split of games with Swayman playing 43 and Ullmark playing 39.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, as Stolarz was excellent in the regular season. Stolarz actually led the entire NHL in save percentage (.925) and goals-against average (2.03), but it should be noted that out of Stolarz’s 25 games, only seven were against teams that made the playoffs and zero were against teams still remaining in the playoffs. Even with Florida being the No. 1 goaltending duo, the depth that Boston has at the position is an asset. We would expect Bobrovsky to play every game for Florida, assuming he doesn’t get hurt or have a stinker, and the Bruins to continue rotating.
If things go haywire in the crease for the Panthers, Kraken legend Magnus Hellberg is waiting in the wings.
Trade deadline additions
Boston did struggle to score in their last three games, only potting four total goals. That will not get it done against Florida, and the Bruins will have to find their scoring touch again. Boston did not add any key players at the deadline, other than Patrick Maroon who has played in four Stanley Cup Finals, helping his team win in three of them.
Florida added two players of note at the deadline, Vladimir Tarasenko and Kyle Okposo. Tarasenko has been a good fit and has chipped in 14 points in 19 games. Okposo has not worked out as well and has seen his playing time reduced to 7:19 per game in the playoffs.
Key UFA’s to watch during this series:
Prediction: Boston wins in six games
Wrap up
Any one of the four teams in the Eastern Conference is good enough to hoist the Stanley Cup this year. Both series should be hard fought and exciting to watch.
Unrelated, if you’re looking for a hockey fix that has more relevance to the Seattle Kraken, the Coachella Valley Firebirds are playing a best-of-five series against the Calgary Wranglers in the AHL’s Calder Cup Playoffs.
Game 1 – May 3, 6:00 pm in Calgary (4-1 Loss)
Game 2 – May 5, 3:00 pm in Calgary (4-3 Win in overtime)
Game 3 – May 8, 8:00 pm in Coachella Valley
Game 4 – May 10, 7:00 pm in Coachella Valley
Game 5 – May 12, 3:00 pm in Coachella Valley (if needed)
After enduring two rather uninspiring Seattle Kraken games this weekend, I didn’t have it in me to spend the time putting together my typical verbose narrative on the last week of Kraken hockey. To fill the void, I am going to dig into something that has been troubling this team all season: the lack of goal scoring.
The scope of this analysis is limited to aggregated team data and not individual player performance. I will spend some time examining the players’ performances in a future article, but for now, let’s explore to gain a deeper understanding of where this team has seen drops and try to understand why they have happened.
Average goals scored
Just to ensure we are all starting from the same point, let’s note that Seattle has had the largest drop in the NHL for average goals scored per game season over season and has the third-lowest goals scored per game in the league.
The lack of goal scoring was particularly evident in the last three games, where the Kraken only managed to score one goal in each. Sunday marked the 25th game of the season where the Seattle Kraken were held to one goal or less. They had only 15 such games last season, and even in the inaugural season, challenging as it was, they only had 16 games where they scored one goal or less.
Situations
Okay. We all know scoring is down, but where exactly?
The drop in even-strength goals is significant. There are still two more games to play, but the Kraken have seen a 35-percent drop in even-strength goals this season. Two factors could be impacting the scoring: the total volume of shots, shooting percentage, or both. Let’s examine the last two seasons.
The volume of shots on goal seems roughly in line with the league average, but there’s a significant drop from last season. A conservative estimate would still put Seattle with more than a 5-percent drop in shots on goal from last season. However, that’s not the whole story.
The real story of the season is the Kraken’s drop in 5-on-5 shooting percentage. Last season, they had the highest 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the league at 11 percent. While a drop was expected this season, this seems like an overcorrection that is unlikely to persist next season.
The Kraken will end the season with a 5-on-5 shooting percentage around 8.0 percent, compared to the league average of 9.3 percent. If they had shot at a league-average rate, that additional 1.3 percent would have netted them an additional 24 goals this season. Those 24 goals could have gone a long way for a team that lost 24 of their 38 one-goal games (adjusted for empty-net goals).
Quality of shots
The next logical question becomes why their shooting percentage was so low this season. A couple of theories could be related to talent on the ice or a systems issue, but for the scope of this post, I am going to look at the quality of shots that were taken. For this analysis, I will be leveraging the great work from Natural Stat Trick.
The volume of high-danger and medium-danger shots was down season over season, which means the mix of shot quality changed. With low-quality shots comprising a higher percentage of the overall shots, it helps explain why the overall shooting percentage is down.
For completeness, let’s examine the shooting percentage by shot quality.
Not only is the volume of high-danger and medium-danger shots down, but the shooting percentage of those two shot qualities is also down. In essence, it was a double whammy, lower quality-shot volume and lower execution on the quality shots.
Scratching the surface
This analysis covers a lot of ground, but it only scratches the surface. In the coming weeks, we will explore a couple of other areas that could be contributing factors to Seattle’s dearth of scoring. I plan to delve into the roster next week, but if there are other areas you want me to explore, please let me know, and I will see what I can do.
With the season winding down, I figured it was a good time to take another look at attendance figures from across the NHL for the 2023-24 season. I always caveat that there is no intent here to take shots at any specific team’s fan base or paint the league in a bad light. Additionally, these are attendance numbers reported via NHL game reports. To my knowledge, the league has never provided a definition of ‘attendance’ but I have come to believe it is ‘tickets distributed.’ It’s not tickets sold, not butts in seats, it’s tickets distributed.
League-wide attendance
League-wide attendance is pretty much at pre-pandemic levels. It is slightly off of the 17,451 peak in 2013-14, but two things impacted these numbers: 1) the Arizona Coyotes’ move to Mullett Arena, and 2) the Seattle Kraken joining the league. Mullett Arena only has a capacity of 4,600, while Climate Pledge Arena’s capacity is 17,151. Both numbers bring down the league average in terms of how many people can physically attend a game.
If you exclude Coyotes and Kraken games, the average attendance across the NHL is 17,719, which would be a new high at this point in the season.
Team-by-team change in attendance
When we look at an individual team’s change in attendance, we see some different themes emerge:
Florida is getting a significant pop from their Stanley Cup Final appearance last season, and the Panthers are backing that up with very good performance on the ice this season.
The Blackhawks are getting a Connor Bedard bounce, despite having a worse record than they had at this time last season.
Like the Florida Panthers, the Devils have seen an increase in attendance thanks to their playoff appearance last season and the emergence of elite, young talent like Jack Hughes.
On the bottom of the graph, you can see the Winnipeg Jets with a drop of close to 5 percent, season over season. If you recall from last year, the Jets were the last wild card team to qualify for the playoffs and made a quick five-game exit with a series loss to the Vegas Golden Knights in Round 1.
The Capitals and Flames are seeing drops, likely due to missing the playoffs last season (though the Capitals are right on the bubble for qualifying this season).
Overall, there tends to be a one-season lag between on-ice performance and impact to attendance. So, by struggling last season, teams have seen drops, and vice versa.
Attendance versus sellouts
One of the challenges with looking at the changes of average attendance in the NHL is that most games are virtual sellouts, which limits how much attendance can actually increase due to capacity restrictions. Additionally, there has been a growing theme of reducing capacity, as arenas remodel to accommodate more space for exclusive experiences. To address these issues, we can look at the number of games that have sold out.
As the graph shows, the percentage of games that have sold out increased from 62 percent last season to 67 percent this season.
Here is the quantity of sellouts by team, which shows the year-over-year change from this same point last season.
Note that figuring out capacity is a manual process that varies from season to season. Some teams have a hard capacity number, such as Boston, where the Bruins consistently have 17,850 reported attendance for every game. Other teams have an inconsistent number, and some arenas have standing room that increases their attendance above a listed capacity. For classifying games as sellouts, I do not include standing-room only.
Game by game for each team
It is not the easiest visual to comprehend, but here is a look at game-by-game attendance for each team this season. For fair comps, I have excluded international and outdoor games.
There are natural ebbs and flows based on a team’s performance, and except for the Coyotes’ temporary facility, the NHL is in a healthy place from an attendance perspective. It is important to note there is limited analysis that can be done with the “reported attendance” numbers, but directionally, it starts to tell a story. Other factors such as weather (yes, weather) and obviously ticket prices impact attendance, but that data is challenging to come by for the general public.
Please let me know if you have any questions or insights into any of this analysis. Sometimes, you need to be in a particular market to know what is going on with a specific team, so feel free to share your own comments on the topic below.
