The first round of the NHL’s Stanley Cup Playoffs is in the books and featured goaltending controversies and injuries, two Game 7 thrillers, and another heart-breaking ouster for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now, the hockey world turns its attention to the second round, so we’re putting together a quick pair of preview articles for what to look for in this next set of games, starting in the Eastern Conference.
The Seattle Kraken are already out working on their golf game, but the team’s front office is busy trying to fill the head coaching position as well as finding some needed scoring for next season. Here, we will consider each of the second-round playoff matchups and call out any unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) that might be of interest to the Kraken, focusing on forwards with an offensive touch. Hopefully, that can give you some players to watch while you are unable to root for the Kraken.
New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes
Alex Wennberg playing against the Hurricanes. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Season series between Carolina and New York
Nov. 2 – New York Rangers won 2-1
Jan. 2 – Carolina Hurricanes won 6-1
Mar. 12 – New York Rangers won 1-0
The Rangers also jumped out to a 1-0 series lead with a 4-3 win at Madison Square Garden in Game 1 on Sunday.
New York Rangers overview
The New York Rangers hold the season series edge at 2-1, but that is a little deceiving. In those games, Carolina only gave up four total goals and scored seven on Igor Shesterkin. Plus, Frederik Andersen sat out most of the year due to a blood clotting issue but returned in early March. Since returning, Andersen has played in 15 games (including playoffs) and went 13-2.
The Rangers won the Presidents Trophy for a reason. They scored 3.39 goals per game (seventh in the league during the regular season), have an excellent goaltender in Shesterkin, and their power play and penalty kill are top three in the NHL. Key additions at the deadline were former Seattle Kraken Alex Wennberg and former Columbus Blue Jacket Jack Roslovic. Both of these players are shoring up the depth for New York, but Wennberg is still contributing on 5-on-5, power play, and penalty kill scenarios.
One item of note for Kraken fans, Seattle received New York’s second-round draft pick in 2024 for Wennberg. If New York were to lose this series, four teams would finish above them, and the pick would improve to No. 61 (from No. 65). There are 33 picks in the second round because the Philadelphia Flyers have a compensatory pick for not signing their 2018 first-round draft pick, Jay O’Brien. If the New York Rangers win the series, Seattle’s acquired pick will fall in the 63-65 range.
Carolina Hurricanes overview
The Carolina Hurricanes are no slouch either and finished just three points behind the Rangers. The Hurricanes were eighth in the NHL in scoring in the regular season, have a very good goaltending tandem in Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov, have the second-best power play in the league and the best overall penalty kill. Key additions at the trade detail were Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Guentzel has been a perfect fit with the team’s offense and has scored 29 points in 22 games since arriving in Carolina.
Both of these teams have a legitimate shot at winning the Stanley Cup if they can make it out of the second round. Expect this series to go the distance or close to it.
Key UFA’s to watch during this series:
Prediction: Carolina wins in seven games
Florida Panthers vs Boston Bruins
Season series between Florida and Boston
Oct. 30 – Boston Bruins won 3-2 in overtime
Nov. 22 – Boston Bruins won 3-1
Mar. 26 – Boston Bruins won 4-3
Apr. 6 – Boston Bruins won 3-2 in overtime
The Boston Bruins swept the season series, but they were all close games with two being decided in overtime. Both Boston and Florida played better on the road in the season series. The Panthers have home-ice advantage, but does that mean Boston actually has the edge in this series?
The teams are also evenly matched when looking at goals scored, power play, and penalty kill.
The Bruins are more likable than they used to be, thanks to former Kraken Morgan Geekie joining the fold.
Goaltending
The difference in this series could come down to goaltending. As a team, Florida statistically had the best goaltending in the league and relied heavily on Sergei Bobrovsky playing 57 games with Anthony Stolarz playing the remaining 25. Boston’s duo of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark was the fifth-best tandem in the league but had a much more even split of games with Swayman playing 43 and Ullmark playing 39.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, as Stolarz was excellent in the regular season. Stolarz actually led the entire NHL in save percentage (.925) and goals-against average (2.03), but it should be noted that out of Stolarz’s 25 games, only seven were against teams that made the playoffs and zero were against teams still remaining in the playoffs. Even with Florida being the No. 1 goaltending duo, the depth that Boston has at the position is an asset. We would expect Bobrovsky to play every game for Florida, assuming he doesn’t get hurt or have a stinker, and the Bruins to continue rotating.
If things go haywire in the crease for the Panthers, Kraken legend Magnus Hellberg is waiting in the wings.
Trade deadline additions
Boston did struggle to score in their last three games, only potting four total goals. That will not get it done against Florida, and the Bruins will have to find their scoring touch again. Boston did not add any key players at the deadline, other than Patrick Maroon who has played in four Stanley Cup Finals, helping his team win in three of them.
Florida added two players of note at the deadline, Vladimir Tarasenko and Kyle Okposo. Tarasenko has been a good fit and has chipped in 14 points in 19 games. Okposo has not worked out as well and has seen his playing time reduced to 7:19 per game in the playoffs.
Key UFA’s to watch during this series:
Prediction: Boston wins in six games
Wrap up
Any one of the four teams in the Eastern Conference is good enough to hoist the Stanley Cup this year. Both series should be hard fought and exciting to watch.
Unrelated, if you’re looking for a hockey fix that has more relevance to the Seattle Kraken, the Coachella Valley Firebirds are playing a best-of-five series against the Calgary Wranglers in the AHL’s Calder Cup Playoffs.
Game 1 – May 3, 6:00 pm in Calgary (4-1 Loss)
Game 2 – May 5, 3:00 pm in Calgary (4-3 Win in overtime)
Game 3 – May 8, 8:00 pm in Coachella Valley
Game 4 – May 10, 7:00 pm in Coachella Valley
Game 5 – May 12, 3:00 pm in Coachella Valley (if needed)
After enduring two rather uninspiring Seattle Kraken games this weekend, I didn’t have it in me to spend the time putting together my typical verbose narrative on the last week of Kraken hockey. To fill the void, I am going to dig into something that has been troubling this team all season: the lack of goal scoring.
The scope of this analysis is limited to aggregated team data and not individual player performance. I will spend some time examining the players’ performances in a future article, but for now, let’s explore to gain a deeper understanding of where this team has seen drops and try to understand why they have happened.
Average goals scored
Just to ensure we are all starting from the same point, let’s note that Seattle has had the largest drop in the NHL for average goals scored per game season over season and has the third-lowest goals scored per game in the league.
The lack of goal scoring was particularly evident in the last three games, where the Kraken only managed to score one goal in each. Sunday marked the 25th game of the season where the Seattle Kraken were held to one goal or less. They had only 15 such games last season, and even in the inaugural season, challenging as it was, they only had 16 games where they scored one goal or less.
Situations
Okay. We all know scoring is down, but where exactly?
The drop in even-strength goals is significant. There are still two more games to play, but the Kraken have seen a 35-percent drop in even-strength goals this season. Two factors could be impacting the scoring: the total volume of shots, shooting percentage, or both. Let’s examine the last two seasons.
The volume of shots on goal seems roughly in line with the league average, but there’s a significant drop from last season. A conservative estimate would still put Seattle with more than a 5-percent drop in shots on goal from last season. However, that’s not the whole story.
The real story of the season is the Kraken’s drop in 5-on-5 shooting percentage. Last season, they had the highest 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the league at 11 percent. While a drop was expected this season, this seems like an overcorrection that is unlikely to persist next season.
The Kraken will end the season with a 5-on-5 shooting percentage around 8.0 percent, compared to the league average of 9.3 percent. If they had shot at a league-average rate, that additional 1.3 percent would have netted them an additional 24 goals this season. Those 24 goals could have gone a long way for a team that lost 24 of their 38 one-goal games (adjusted for empty-net goals).
Quality of shots
The next logical question becomes why their shooting percentage was so low this season. A couple of theories could be related to talent on the ice or a systems issue, but for the scope of this post, I am going to look at the quality of shots that were taken. For this analysis, I will be leveraging the great work from Natural Stat Trick.
The volume of high-danger and medium-danger shots was down season over season, which means the mix of shot quality changed. With low-quality shots comprising a higher percentage of the overall shots, it helps explain why the overall shooting percentage is down.
For completeness, let’s examine the shooting percentage by shot quality.
Not only is the volume of high-danger and medium-danger shots down, but the shooting percentage of those two shot qualities is also down. In essence, it was a double whammy, lower quality-shot volume and lower execution on the quality shots.
Scratching the surface
This analysis covers a lot of ground, but it only scratches the surface. In the coming weeks, we will explore a couple of other areas that could be contributing factors to Seattle’s dearth of scoring. I plan to delve into the roster next week, but if there are other areas you want me to explore, please let me know, and I will see what I can do.
With the season winding down, I figured it was a good time to take another look at attendance figures from across the NHL for the 2023-24 season. I always caveat that there is no intent here to take shots at any specific team’s fan base or paint the league in a bad light. Additionally, these are attendance numbers reported via NHL game reports. To my knowledge, the league has never provided a definition of ‘attendance’ but I have come to believe it is ‘tickets distributed.’ It’s not tickets sold, not butts in seats, it’s tickets distributed.
League-wide attendance
League-wide attendance is pretty much at pre-pandemic levels. It is slightly off of the 17,451 peak in 2013-14, but two things impacted these numbers: 1) the Arizona Coyotes’ move to Mullett Arena, and 2) the Seattle Kraken joining the league. Mullett Arena only has a capacity of 4,600, while Climate Pledge Arena’s capacity is 17,151. Both numbers bring down the league average in terms of how many people can physically attend a game.
If you exclude Coyotes and Kraken games, the average attendance across the NHL is 17,719, which would be a new high at this point in the season.
Team-by-team change in attendance
When we look at an individual team’s change in attendance, we see some different themes emerge:
Florida is getting a significant pop from their Stanley Cup Final appearance last season, and the Panthers are backing that up with very good performance on the ice this season.
The Blackhawks are getting a Connor Bedard bounce, despite having a worse record than they had at this time last season.
Like the Florida Panthers, the Devils have seen an increase in attendance thanks to their playoff appearance last season and the emergence of elite, young talent like Jack Hughes.
On the bottom of the graph, you can see the Winnipeg Jets with a drop of close to 5 percent, season over season. If you recall from last year, the Jets were the last wild card team to qualify for the playoffs and made a quick five-game exit with a series loss to the Vegas Golden Knights in Round 1.
The Capitals and Flames are seeing drops, likely due to missing the playoffs last season (though the Capitals are right on the bubble for qualifying this season).
Overall, there tends to be a one-season lag between on-ice performance and impact to attendance. So, by struggling last season, teams have seen drops, and vice versa.
Attendance versus sellouts
One of the challenges with looking at the changes of average attendance in the NHL is that most games are virtual sellouts, which limits how much attendance can actually increase due to capacity restrictions. Additionally, there has been a growing theme of reducing capacity, as arenas remodel to accommodate more space for exclusive experiences. To address these issues, we can look at the number of games that have sold out.
As the graph shows, the percentage of games that have sold out increased from 62 percent last season to 67 percent this season.
Here is the quantity of sellouts by team, which shows the year-over-year change from this same point last season.
Note that figuring out capacity is a manual process that varies from season to season. Some teams have a hard capacity number, such as Boston, where the Bruins consistently have 17,850 reported attendance for every game. Other teams have an inconsistent number, and some arenas have standing room that increases their attendance above a listed capacity. For classifying games as sellouts, I do not include standing-room only.
Game by game for each team
It is not the easiest visual to comprehend, but here is a look at game-by-game attendance for each team this season. For fair comps, I have excluded international and outdoor games.
There are natural ebbs and flows based on a team’s performance, and except for the Coyotes’ temporary facility, the NHL is in a healthy place from an attendance perspective. It is important to note there is limited analysis that can be done with the “reported attendance” numbers, but directionally, it starts to tell a story. Other factors such as weather (yes, weather) and obviously ticket prices impact attendance, but that data is challenging to come by for the general public.
Please let me know if you have any questions or insights into any of this analysis. Sometimes, you need to be in a particular market to know what is going on with a specific team, so feel free to share your own comments on the topic below.
It’s been two weeks since the last installment of Monday Musings, and while I won’t delve into the details of each of the seven games that have since passed, it’s safe to say it’s been quite the roller coaster ride. We witnessed some lackluster performances against the Sabres and the Canadiens, hard-fought battles versus the Coyotes and Golden Knights, two victories against the Ducks, and a game where Seattle showed heart but ultimately fell short against the Stars. Emotionally, I’m coping a bit better with the losses now, but there’s no denying the joy that comes with the wins, regardless of their significance in the grand scheme of things.
Player signings and timing
The Seattle Kraken recently inked one of their second-round selections from the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Lukas Dragicevic, following the conclusion of the Tri-City Americans’ season. This aligns with the Kraken’s strategy of signing many of their draft picks a season after their selection. Likewise, we anticipate Oscar Fisker-Mølgaard to follow suit over the next couple of weeks, now that HV71’s season has ended.
HV71 secured its spot in the SHL for next season after a crucial Game 7 victory, sparing themselves relegation against IK Oskarshamn. Mølgaard, another second-round pick from the 2023 draft, showcased his talent with an impressive season in the SHL. While we anticipate Mølgaard’s signing, unlike Dragicevic, we don’t foresee him joining the Coachella Valley squad for the remainder of the season.
European prospects typically make the transition to North America at the end of their respective seasons if the Kraken intend to have them play in North America the following campaign. Our projection suggests Mølgaard will spend another year honing his skills in the SHL before potentially making the move across the Atlantic.
Similarly, Jani Nyman wrapped up his season last week when his team, Ilves, bowed out to KalPa in the Liiga quarterfinals. Nyman showcased his talent throughout the season, tallying an impressive 43 points in 48 games, earning him the under-20 scoring title and the coveted Red Bull helmet. Having signed his standard entry-level contract (ELC) last year as part of the 2022 Kraken draft class, there’s speculation about his future plans. While nothing is certain, there’s a growing anticipation that he may transition to North America for the upcoming season, potentially joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds to finish out the current season.
Here is a look at the status of all the Kraken draft picks by year and round.
In addition to Mølgaard, I would anticipate Carson Rehkopf to sign whenever the Kitchener Rangers season is complete.
Forecasting the draft picks
I recently received a thought-provoking question from a friend: How many players drafted by the Kraken will become regulars on the team in three years? It’s the kind of inquiry that tends to surface when your team finds itself out of playoff contention.
The data reveals an intriguing reality: only 80 percent of first-round draft picks manage to accumulate more than 100 games in the NHL. For second-round picks, that number drops to 50 percent, and it dwindles to less than 20 percent for those selected beyond the third round. Despite our enthusiasm for some of the draft picks, the odds remain steep for most of them to secure substantial NHL playing time. Assessing which players will succeed and stick in the NHL involves applying probabilities to all Kraken prospects. However, this method doesn’t offer a foolproof prediction of when they’ll make their NHL debut, and it’s worth noting that players may also be traded by the Kraken, further complicating matters.
Using a rough estimation based on the player’s draft round and potential, out of the current 28 drafted prospects, we project that approximately 8.2 will accumulate 100 games or more in the NHL. This rough proxy can help gauge the number of Kraken-drafted prospects likely to feature on the team in three years. While it may seem like the Kraken have excelled in drafting compared to other teams, this perception could be influenced by confirmation bias. To make a more definitive statement, we’ll need a few more years of data to validate this notion.
Shane Wright call-up
In case it slipped under your radar, the Kraken made a notable move on Sunday by recalling Shane Wright. This marks Shane’s second call-up to the Kraken this season, with his first stint occurring back in November for three games.
His performance in Coachella Valley this season has been impressive, fueling excitement about his potential at the highest level. From recent observations, particularly in terms of his two-way play, Shane appears to excel, demonstrating deft puck movement and a quick release, whether shooting or passing to teammates.
While I’d love to offer insights into how his skills will translate to the NHL, the reality is that there’s limited exposure to 20-year-old centers playing in the AHL. Nonetheless, my expectation is that he’ll remain with the team for at least five games, affording us the opportunity to witness his talents in action during the last two home games of the season next week.
Other musings
With the departure of Alex Wennberg and the absence of Vince Dunn, the power play has looked very different. There seems to be a greater emphasis on getting the puck down low for either a touch pass to the slot or sliding a pass across the crease. It seems to be working. The Kraken have a 22.2 power-play percentage since March 3. That is slightly better than the 21.2 percent they had prior to Wennberg’s departure.
One of the more noticeable elements of the power play recently is the change of shot location of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jared McCann. They are still getting their shots; they are just getting it from different locations.
The Kraken goaltenders still have the second highest save percentage in the league since Dec. 1.
In case anyone missed it, the Kraken will be the only NHL team in the league without a home win on a Saturday this season, and I have no theories on why.
Goal scoring continues to be a challenge. The Kraken have scored two goals or less in seven out of their last nine games.
Alison Lukan beat me to it by five days, but the 10 power play opportunities against the Anaheim game on Thursday was a franchise record. The previous record was eight against Vancouver in the inaugural season.
The Ducks are far and away the most undisciplined team in the league, while the Kraken are one of the most disciplined.
The Kraken allowed their ninth goal of the season within five seconds of a face-off on Saturday. We commonly refer to these as ‘face-off goals against.’ They are second in the NHL at allowing face-off goals against this season. The second goal Dallas scored was nine seconds after a face-off.
I have watched a lot of Liiga (Finland) and SHL (Sweden) via their streaming platforms. The picture quality is so superior to footage of the AHL and most of the NHL Regional Sport Networks. Why can’t we get this kind of quality for North America? I understand why it might be a challenge for the CHL, but the other leagues have the money and viewers to make their products better.
Speaking of Scandinavian hockey leagues, Kraken goalie prospect Niklas Kokko will be playing an elimination game in the Liiga playoffs when his team, Lahden Pelicans, squares off against HIFK in a Game 7 matchup Tuesday evening in Finland. Kokko has a .935 save percentage and 1.58 goals against average in these playoffs. He just turned 20 years old.
Player performances
David Goyette (SBY/SEA) – The regular-season points leader in the OHL had a Gordie Howe hat trick in the Sudbury Wolves’ second OHL playoff game. The Wolves lead that series 2-0 and are headed to Sudbury for Games 3 and 4.
Joey Daccord (SEA) – posted a .951 save percentage over the last week with a goals against average of 1.01 in that stretch.
Visa Vedenpää (HER/SEA) – The sixth-round goalie selected in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft had a 39-save shutout on March 27 playing for Hermes in the second round of the Mestis league playoffs.
Goal of the week
Shooters shoot. Check out Goyette’s goal from a crazy game against Mississauga on Saturday.
Furthering the discussion about the Kraken draft picks, here is a look at the number of draft picks playing for the teams that drafted them. I leveraged the CapFriendly.com depth charts so there could be players not reflected in the data if they are currently out of the lineup.
What to watch for
Shane Wright. There are not a lot of obvious roster changes next season, but you can probably lock Shane into a spot right now. I don’t think we will be able to extrapolate much from this stint with the Kraken, but my hope is we see the strides he has made by developing in the AHL this season. It would be great to see a goal or two, but I am eager to see how he moves the puck and how he plays defensively. Hopefully, he gets some special teams opportunities.
We are getting close to offseason mode where we will be digging into the draft, prospects, what went wrong, and a host of other content ideas we have brewing. If there are areas you want us to dig into, please let us know.
The Seattle Kraken fell short of the ultimatum I set in last week’s Monday Musings of grabbing five out of a possible six points, but I can’t be upset at the effort. The boys came away with gutsy wins against the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins but fell short of gaining a point versus the Edmonton Oilers in a Saturday afternoon matinee.
This might have been the best three-game effort the Kraken have brought this season against some high-quality opponents. From top to bottom, the team is really bought in and showing the desperation to stay in the playoff hunt right now.
Unfortunately, the Kraken woke up on Monday nine points out of a wild card spot and again looking at a logjam of four teams they would need to climb over in the standings to get into the postseason. Getting in is looking less likely every day, but if the Kraken can play the rest of the season like this, I still think they have a shot.
Remaining schedule
The next four games will be the toughest four games remaining on the schedule. Even if they only manage four points of the eight available, the Kraken might be ok to stay in it as long as either the Los Angeles Kings or Nashville Predators start to lose a bit more than they win. Over the next four games, the Kraken have one game against the Calgary Flames, two against the Winnipeg Jets, and then one game against the Vegas Golden Knights. After those four games, the schedule gets easier with six out of the next eight games being against teams that are mostly eliminated from playoff contention.
Alex Wennberg
With the trade deadline this coming Friday, I worry this might be the last week we see Alex Wennberg wearing the Seattle Kraken jersey. Regular readers will know that I love Wennberg and what he has brought to this franchise. He was one of the first free agents to sign in Seattle before the team ever took the ice. I am always blown away with his play and patience with the puck, and I marvel at his footwork and board play.
I will never forget the below play during the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. A lot of the highlights won’t show his contributions to the goal, but the whole sequence doesn’t happen without his board work.
He had another great play on Monday that will go underappreciated, when he gained the zone, and as five Bruins set up to defend, Wennberg delivered a soft pass to empty ice that Will Borgen. Borgen swiftly stepped into it for a one-timer that Oliver Bjorkstrand tipped by Linus Ullmark.
🚨 CUE THE MAESTRO! 🚨
Bjorkstrand tips a Borgen shot in with 5 minutes left!
If this is truly his last week or even season with the Seattle Kraken, he will be missed. He currently leads all Kraken forwards in ice time, and he plays on the power play, penalty kill, and is often deployed in key defensive situations.
Hard sell, soft sell, or hold
What the Kraken do at the trade deadline is still anyone’s guess. I found Pierre LeBrun’s take on what the Kraken might do with their two biggest assets on expiring deals humorous. LeBrun’s take was the Kraken could re-sign Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, or they might re-sign one of them, or they might do nothing. So, they could do anything.
We published a story on the topic a couple weeks ago, in case you want to read up on that and hear what the players themselves said about the situation.
There are three trade deadline scenarios that could play out:
A hard sell would be if the Kraken trade either Alexander Wennberg and/or Jordan Eberle.
A soft sell would be if the team traded Justin Schultz and/or Tomas Tatar
Holding would be doing nothing or moving a depth piece in the system.
The fate of what they do might come down to the back-to-back games to start this week. Two wins, and they might hold. Two losses, and I think a hard sell will be kicked into motion. I do think there is a way this team could make the playoffs even with a “soft-sell,” where maybe it trades only Schultz and has Ryker Evans slot in for him the rest of the way (just as an example).
Other Musings
After a successful goalie interference challenge last Monday against the Bruins, the Kraken are two for two in goalie interference challenges this season. The success rate for goalie challenges league wide is 63 percent.
The Boston game was the 17th overtime game of the season for Seattle. That tied the full-season total from 2022-23, so the next overtime game this season will mean the most OT games in a single season for the Kraken. Here is how overtime games have broken down by seasons.
If the Kraken start the week with two regulation losses, the season is probably cooked, and I would appreciate people checking in on me on Wednesday morning.
Tuesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets will be the first time the Kraken square off against the Jets this season. Winnipeg is the only team in the league the Kraken have not faced this season, but they will play two in a row against them this week.
The Kraken are still winless at home on Saturdays this season. The loss to Edmonton pushed their Saturday home record to 0-5-2. The Kraken have two more Saturday home games remaining this season.
It is great to see Philipp Grubauer getting in a groove. He has a .942 save percentage with a 4-1-0 record since coming back from injury. Outside of last season’s playoffs, this is probably his best stretch of games he has played with the Kraken.
Player performances
Morgan Geekie (BOS) – The former Seattle Kraken and Tri-City American had his first career hat-trick against the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. We continue to root for Geekie as long as he isn’t playing against the Kraken.
Philipp Grubauer (SEA) – Grubauer had a .944 save percentage and a 2-1-0 record on the week including a shutout against the Penguins, his first of the season.
Jagger Firkus (MJW/SEA) and Carson Rehkopf (KIT/SEA) – Both players might be the most mentioned players in the Monday Musings for the season. Both Seattle Kraken prospects are having outstanding years for their respective clubs, and both eclipsed the 50-goal mark on Sunday.
For those that might have missed it, we had two outstanding guests on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast this week with Piper Shaw and Alison Lukan in studio. The episode was packed with tomfoolery and hijinks, but there was also plenty of Kraken insight, so give it a listen.
One thing Alison called out was Andre Burakovsky’s actions that helped with the Vince Dunn goal against Boston. The breakdown is in her below tweet.
2-2
Dunn with the equalizer but Burakovsky is so critical here – this comes right after a shift where he dangled right in front of Ullmark…BOS knows they have to defend him – he draws two and Dunn has plenty of space to send in the shot that gets in net. #SeaKrakenpic.twitter.com/exF4UYDOH0
Also, on the podcast we discussed a different framing of shots and shot attempts, called ‘shots on target.’ It’s just shots on goal, but in context of shot attempts, you could widen the lens to evaluate how many shot attempts actually get to the goalie. So, naturally, I investigated it.
I originally started just looking at percentage of shots on target, and that showed Seattle had the second-lowest percentage of shot attempts that are on target. When I saw Carolina below the Kraken, I felt it needed additional context since Carolina is one of the better teams in the league this season. I then added total shot attempts per game to help add more color to the story.
This was pulled together in about 30 minutes on Monday morning, so there is still a lot more to dig into here, but it is an interesting perspective to start evaluating some of the shooting performances across the NHL.
The week ahead
I have been implying the Kraken’s situation (in terms of making the playoffs) has been dire for a while. They have been staying afloat, but the Predators have really started to separate from the rest of the pack and currently have a nine-point advantage on the Kraken for the last playoff spot. Seattle still has two games in hand but will need to climb over a few teams, even if Nashville starts to falter. I am also ready to lock the Kings into a playoff spot at this point, which only leaves that Nashville spot.
The first half of March has the Kraken facing some quality opponents, and that kicks off this week with a game Monday against an equally desperate Calgary Flames team and two games against the Central Division leaders, the Winnipeg Jets. Anything less than four points and at least one against Calgary might sink these Kraken playoff dreams in season three. The team has been playing well and still shows a lot of compete that has me clinging to a few last shreds of hope.
As always, thank you for making it this far. If you have questions, thoughts, or reactions, feel free to leave a note in the comments and I will do my best to respond and engage.
A few weeks back, we reviewed the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents in a two-part series (Part I and Part II). This week, we will be jumping into the Kraken’s three restricted free agents (RFA’s) and reviewing what might be in store for them during the offseason. The Coachella Valley Firebirds also have five additional RFA’s in the Kraken development system. We will focus more on the RFA’s currently playing with Seattle but will also touch briefly on the ones playing for the Firebirds.
There are many rules around RFA’s that complicate contract negotiations. If you need a refresher on the free agency process and steps, Sound Of Hockey‘s own Curtis Isacke wrote a piece on free agency last year for review. The appendix outlines the terms associated with free agency, and there is also a section dedicated to RFA’s.
The Seattle Kraken RFA process is a long one that can last up to 18 months. It technically started back on July 1, 2023, when the players in question first became eligible to sign contract extensions. At the conclusion of the process, the hope for both sides is typically a finalized contract. These negotiations can sometimes drag into the following season, causing a player to miss time, but that is rare.
Here are the high-level steps RFA’s will go through:
Possibility of contract extension
Qualifying offers extended
Arbitration (if the player is eligible; Matty Beniers is the only Kraken RFA that does not have arbitration rights)
Contract negotiations (short-term bridge or long-term deal?)
The Kraken RFA’s are:
Matty Beniers (Age 21) – Target: Re-sign for two years at $5M AAV
Matty Beniers at Kraken practice. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
After dazzling as a rookie and capturing the Calder Trophy last season, Beniers has found himself in a sophomore slump season. His scoring pace has dipped by around 40 percent, signaling his value in negotiations has decreased and a bridge deal might be in his future.
While the scoring decline is noticeable, it’s crucial to consider the context. Through 50 games, the Kraken have scored 140 goals, down from the 177 goals they scored in 50 games last season. Beniers’ value also extends beyond pure offense. He’s a skilled two-way center, contributing defensively and driving puck possession. But, he still needs to produce offensively to warrant the massive contract his camp surely wants.
With no extension signed to date, it is questionable if a deal will be done before the offseason. Had Beniers maintained his rookie scoring pace, a maximum-term, eight-year contract would likely be on the table. Given the current scoring slump, a bridge deal (one-to-four years) appears more probable.
Looking at recent bridge deals for young, talented players offers some insight:
Trevor Zegras: three-year bridge at $5.75M AAV
Pierre-Luc Dubois: two-year bridge at $5M AAV, followed by a one-year bridge at $6M AAV
Despite the scoring dip, Beniers’ overall value remains high.
Defensive Prowess: His two-way play adds considerable value beyond the goal sheet.
Calder Trophy Winner: His past achievements and potential shouldn’t be disregarded.
Age and Development: At 21, Beniers is still developing and has plenty of room for improvement.
Trade options:
As the franchise’s first-ever draft pick and face of the team, the Kraken are unlikely to trade Beniers. We will not be reviewing trade options.
Prediction:
We anticipate a bridge deal in the two-to-four-year range with $4.5M-$5.5M AAV. This will give Beniers a chance to rediscover his scoring touch and earn a potential eight-year extension while still young.
Eeli Tolvanen (Age 24) – Target: Re-sign for 5 years at $4M AAV
Eeli Tolvanen’s arrival in Seattle via a savvy waiver wire claim has quickly become one of the NHL’s biggest waiver success stories. Now, as the 24-year-old winger approaches the end of his current contract, the Seattle Kraken face a crucial decision: bridge deal or long-term commitment?
Eeli Tolvanen and Yanni Gourde celebrate a goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Tolvanen’s offensive prowess is undeniable. He’s on pace for a career-high point total this season, showcasing a potent blend of goal-scoring ability and playmaking. His physicality is another asset, leading all Kraken forwards in hits (136), and he is also second in blocked shots (52) through 50 games.
Contract comparables:
Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes): five years, $4.3M AAV
Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis Blues): five years, $5M AAV
Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild): eight years, $5.25M AAV
Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): five years, $4.5M AAV
Complicating factors:
One wrinkle in the negotiations is Tolvanen’s arbitration eligibility. If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, an independent arbitrator will determine his contract value. This adds an element of uncertainty for both the Kraken and Tolvanen and gives the player more leverage.
Another factor to consider is Tolvanen’s unique skill set. Most of the comparable contracts listed above feature players that contribute on the penalty kill. The Finnish winger primarily thrives on five-on-five as a solid two-way player and brings an accurate shot to the power play.
Trade options:
While trades involving restricted free agents outperforming their current contracts are uncommon, since teams typically hold onto their relatively young talent, some recent deals offer insights into potential return value.
Artturi Lehkonen – Colorado surrendered a second-round pick and former first-round prospect Justin Barron for Lehkonen in 2022.
Sam Bennett – Florida sent a package of a second-round pick and former second-round prospect Emil Heineman for Bennett and a sixth-round pick in 2021.
While Tolvanen’s power-play prowess surpasses those of the comparables, it’s unlikely to push his trade value to a first-round pick. A target trade return should be two second-round picks/prospects or better. Despite the potential trade haul, the Kraken will likely prioritize re-signing Tolvanen unless an exceptional offer emerges.
The 2023 Tampa Bay Lightning trade for Tanner Jeannot serves as an example of an offer potentially too good to refuse. Nashville received a first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round draft pick, along with defenseman Cal Foote, for the feisty winger.
Prediction:
Despite the uncertainties, expect the Kraken to prioritize retaining Tolvanen long-term. Jared McCann and Vince Dunn were of similar age when they signed their deals with the Kraken and both will be 30 at the time their contracts come to term. We see the Kraken structuring this deal in a similar way but at a smaller dollar value than the $7.35M AAV deal for Dunn and the $5M AAV deal for McCann.
A five-year deal in the $4M-$4.5M AAV range seems like a reasonable outcome. While a longer-term contract isn’t out of the question, a five-year deal gives Tolvanen more options later in his career.
Kailer Yamamoto (Age 25) – Target: Trade for a fourth-round pick
Don’t let Kailer Yamamoto’s stature fool you. At 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the Seattle Kraken forward might be one of the smallest players in the NHL, but his heart and hustle are oversized. He came to the Kraken via free agency after being traded and then bought out of his last $3.2M contract by Detroit, but he is now a pending RFA with Seattle.
Kailer Yamamoto handles the puck. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Yamamoto’s tenacity is most evident on the forecheck, where he uses his low center of gravity to hound puck carriers; he is third on the team in takeaways minus giveaways. The Spokane native’s knack for entering the offensive zone with control translates to his high power play usage.
Yamamoto’s versatility adds another layer to his worth, his high career shooting percentage (14.1 percent) allows him to bump up the lineup when needed. Despite his fourth-line designation, Yamamoto’s advanced statistics are strong. He currently leads the Kraken in both Corsi and Fenwick percentage, suggesting that Yamamoto not only generates offense himself, but also elevates the play of his teammates when on the ice.
The Seattle Kraken only deploy Yamamoto about 12 minutes per game and have scratched him from the lineup on several occasions. In researching players to find comparable contracts, the search was narrowed to players that:
Average under 13 minutes per game.
Average over 90 seconds of power-play time per game.
Have under 20 points on the season.
Have played more than 25 games this season.
Only six players meet this criteria, and they either are playing at or near the league minimum salary or have signed a large deal and are not playing to their contract’s value. Yamamoto doesn’t fit in these categories, so we will not be looking at those comparables.
The small winger is only 25, so he does have one more year where he can play as an RFA. At this point, though, it is apparent the fourth-liner is not going to move the needle enough for the Seattle Kraken and has solidified himself as a depth player.
The winger is arbitration eligible, and a qualifying offer would have to match his current $1.5M AAV. For these reasons, we think it is unlikely the Kraken extend a qualifying offer to Yamamoto. The former Spokane Chief could still sign with the Kraken during free agency, and if that happens, you can expect another one-year deal in the neighborhood of $1M AAV.
Trade options:
The best trade to review is probably his own from Edmonton to Detroit, but there are a couple other options to review too:
Kailer Yamamoto – Detroit sent the infamous “Future Considerations” to Edmonton in 2023 and also received the signing rights of Klim Kostin.
Oskar Sundqvist – Detroit acquired a fourth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023
Rasmus Asplund – Nashville traded a seventh-round pick to Nashville in 2023
The only piece that has changed since Yamamoto’s last trade is his AAV is now $1.5M versus $3.2M when traded in 2023. Factoring in that Yamamoto is still an RFA and the Kraken can retain 50 percent of his contract, a playoff-bound team getting a depth winger with power play experience at a minimal cap hit does have some value. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is in the right range.
Prediction:
If the Kraken remain in the playoff hunt, they will probably hold onto Yamamoto through the end of the season. There are capable right wing fourth-line options in Coachella Valley with Kole Lind, Marian Studenic, and John Hayden available for call-ups, though, so if they get an offer for Yamamoto, the Kraken may be willing to trade him.
Down on the Farm [Moooo!]
Even when I type “Moooo”, I hear it in Sound Of Hockey Podcast host, Darren Brown’s voice. All five of the Coachella Valley Firebird RFA’s are arbitration eligible. This is not as much of a concern as at the NHL level, because most contracts will be two-way deals around league minimum, $775K AAV. All of these players make under $1M, so the qualifying offers will include a five percent increase. We will review each player and assign a “Qualify”, “Trade,” or “Let walk” tag to each player.
Kole Lind– Target: Trade The 25-year-old winger excels on the offensive side of the game, but his scoring successes have not translated to the NHL yet. Similar to Daniel Sprong, there are questions around his two-way play, which makes him a hard fit for the Kraken. He’s one of those guys that has been right on the cusp of making it in the NHL, though. The Kraken should look to trade the winger and package him with another player.
Ville Petman – Target: Qualify The Finnish winger was signed to a two-year deal in 2022 after showing promise in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, scoring 39 points in 59 games. Bringing him to the AHL have allowed the Kraken to evaluate how Petman adapts to the North American game and monitor his improvement. The 24-year-old left wing got off to a good start with 28 points in his first AHL season, but he unfortunately has not showed improvement this season. There are still enough positives to award Petman another contract, but don’t expect to see him on the Kraken roster any time soon.
Luke Henman – Target: Let walk The first player signed to a contract in Kraken franchise history, Henman was never signed to an entry-level deal by Carolina after being drafted in the fourth round in 2018. In his three years in the AHL, his offensive abilities have become stagnant, averaging 0.24 points per game. At 23, Henman still has time to develop, but making the NHL at this point is a going to be an uphill battle.
Marian Studenic – Target: Qualify Studenic is a hard-forechecking winger with a scoring touch. Listed at 165 pounds, he is on the lighter side but could fill a fourth-line type role. With one year remaining as RFA, we think the Kraken will make him a qualifying offer. Update, it has come to my attention that Studenic will actually be a Group 6 UFA at the end of the season. That means the Kraken would not make a qualifying offer, but rather just re-sign him.
Peetro Seppala – Target: Qualify Seppala is a left-shot defenseman that is getting good experience in the AHL. The Finn brings a mix of good puck-moving ability and improving offensive numbers in his two years with the Firebirds. He is behind Ryker Evans on the depth chart and still needs to develop his game, though. We think the Kraken will look to retain Seppala’s rights and extend him a qualifying offer.
Group 6 UFA Sound of Hockey’s own Curtis Isacke pointed out that Kole Lind and Martin Studenic will most likely be Group 6 UFA’s at the end of the season and he is absolutely correct. A full definition of a Group 6 UFA can be found here. A simplified definition is a player that is at least 25 years-old, played at least 3 professional seasons and played less than 80 games at the NHL level.
Overall:
Beniers’ development, Tolvanen’s retention, and Yamamoto’s future all paint a larger picture of Seattle’s commitment to building a contender. Balancing the Kraken’s short-term needs with long-term aspirations, the decisions made this offseason will be interesting to watch. Join the conversation below and let us know how you think the Kraken should handle their RFA’s.
