Welcome to the Sound Of Hockey NHL Draft Live Blog. Assuming no trades, the Kraken will have eight draft picks today. We will continue to add information about their selections here throughout the day. The most recent updates will appear at the top, so scroll down to see earlier news. If you want to catch up on the Kraken’s first-round selection of Berkly Catton, check out Curtis Isacke’s breakdown here or Cameron Rigger’s profile on Catton from back in February.
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12:39 PM
That wraps up the 2024 NHL Draft. The Kraken ended up with eight picks in total. As a reminder, most of the players will be in Seattle this week as part of the Seattle Kraken Development Camp. Keep an eye on SoundOfHockey.com for deeper draft analysis and dev camp coverage.
Additionally, free agency opens Monday morning, and we anticipate some aggressive moves by the Kraken. We will cover it all right here.
12:22 PM
It appears the Seattle Kraken are done of the day. Here is how their picks shook out at the 2024 NHL Draft.
Here’s how Round 7 played out.
12:12 PM
Assuming no more trades, the Seattle Kraken use their last pick on defenseman Jakub Fibigr from the Mississauga Steelheads in the OHL. Fibigr is from Czechia but played his draft year in North America. Let’s let him give you his own scouting report and a bit more info on his background.
12:05 PM
Home stretch for the draft. Here are the results from Round 6.
11:55 AM
Everett Silvertips defenseman Eric Jamieson was selected by the Calgary Flames with their sixth-round pick. Jamieson is the third Silvertip to be selected so far.
11:35 AM
Round 5 is in the books. Lots of WHL players selected in this round.
11:19 AM
With that newly acquired selection, the Kraken have taken Clarke Caswell from the Swift Current Broncos. This was their fourth selection from the WHL this draft. This seems like a good value pick, as Caswell was ranked 79th on the SOH Big Board.
The #SeaKraken have acquired the 141st-overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft from the Florida Panthers in exchange for Seattle’s 169th and 201st picks in this year’s draft.
— Seattle Kraken PR (@SeattleKrakenPR) June 29, 2024
11:18 AM
The Kraken made a trade to move up in the draft. They traded their sixth-round pick (169) and seventh-round pick (201) for Florida’s fifth-round pick (141).
11:01 AM
With the addition of center Oliver Josephson, the Kraken have now selected 15 centers since they came into the league. This is the second-most centers selected by any team since 2021, behind only the Chicago Blackhawks, who have taken 17. Several of these players will be converted to wing should they make the NHL, but it is an interesting data point in the Kraken’s draft strategy.
10:58 AM
Here are the results from Round 4.
10:24 AM
The Seattle Kraken selected another center, Oliver Josephson, with their fourth-round selection. Josephson is another shutdown-type forward. He plays for Red Deer in the WHL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to see him roll through Washington State when Red Deer plays the US teams.
10:20 AM
Round 3 is a wrap.
10:05 AM
With the 88th overall pick, the Kraken selected goalie Kim Saarinen from the HPK U20 team. Saarinen was predicted by Curtis in his Seattle Kraken mock draft earlier this week. This is the third Finnish goalie the team has selected over the last three drafts.
9:45 AM
With their first selection in the third round, the Seattle Kraken select defenseman Alexis Bernier from Baie-Comeau Drakkar of the QMJHL. This is the first defenseman the Kraken have selected.
Ma révélation québécoise des dernières semaines chez les espoirs 2024: Alexis Bernier, du @DrakkarBAC.
Il vient d'inscrire son 4e de la saison sur cette magnifique séquence.
With their second selection of the second round and 63rd overall, the Seattle Kraken selected centerman Nathan Villeneuve from the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL. As you might recall, one of Seattle’s top prospects, David Goyette, also played with Sudbury this season.
“Villeneuve’s a feisty, high-pace attacker with a lockdown defensive game. When he’s not throwing hits and winning battles, he’s eliminating off-puck threats and pickpocketing the puck carrier. When the puck arrives on his stick, he instantly takes the middle or starts a give-and-go to attack the zone with speed.” – Elite Prospects
9:15 AM
Another trade. We identified Tanner Jeannot as a good trade target for the Seattle Kraken, and at this price, it seemed reasonable, but it was not meant to be.
Utah acquired defenseman Mikhail Sergachev from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for defenseman JJ Moser, center Conor Geekie, a 2025 second-round pick, and their 2024 seventh-round pick (No. 199 overall).
Utah also acquired defenseman John Marino from New Jersey in exchange for their 49th overall pick of the 2024 Draft and a 2025 second-round pick.
8:45 AM
The Seattle Kraken selected Julius Miettinen from the Everett Silvertips. Miettinen, an import from Finland, is known as a strong two-way center. He really shined in the back half of the season with Everett.
We also got a few firsts in the 2024 Draft. The first Swedish player was selected 35th overall, and the first goalie of the draft, Ilya Nabokov, was taken 38th overall.
8:30 AM – Round 2
Let’s begin Day 2! The Kraken will be selecting 40th and 63rd in this round.
8:00 AM
The Kraken will start the day with eight picks remaining in the 2024 NHL draft.
A couple things from Round 1 that I wanted to call out from yesterday before we get going:
For the third time ever, NCAA players went first and second overall in the NHL Draft. The last time this happened was in 2021 when Owen Power and Matty Beniers were selected back-to-back. The only other time was in 2000 when Rick DiPietro and Dany Heatley went first and second, respectively.
The run on defensemen did not occur as early as many analysts predicted. Most people expected a group of blueliners to start hearing their names called around the fifth overall pick.
This is the first time since 2010 that no Swedes were taken in the first round. Last year, six Swedes were selected on Day 1 of the draft, including second overall Leo Carlsson.
The 19 Canadian players selected in the first round Friday tied a mark set in 2020 for the most Canadians selected in the first round.
Here are the full results of the first round:
On a personal note, Marshawn Lynch is probably my favorite athlete of all-time.
It’s no secret that the Seattle Kraken need to score more goals next season. Goal-scoring issues plagued the team from the start of last season, with only three goals in their first four games to start. The Kraken finished the 2023-24 regular season 28th in the league with an average of 2.61 goals per game, down 25 percent from the 2022-23 season. Clearly, targeting goal scorers in the offseason is crucial. One way they can do that is in free agency that opens July 1. To help us all prepare, I put together a list of potential targets for the Kraken in free agency.
Assumptions
Roster spots: Assuming no trades happen before free agency, the Kraken will have four or five forward spots to fill from last season. Shane Wright is likely to take one of these spots, and two more spots will be depth pieces that are not expected to produce a lot of goals but can fill in down the lineup and help in case of injuries. For the purposes of this exercise, we will focus on the two remaining roster spots that will be expected to contribute offensively.
Budget: I estimate the Kraken will have less than $10 million in AAV to sign these two players. This may be a conservative estimate, but without knowing the pending RFA contracts of Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen, we’ll use this constraint. Additionally, targeting a center would allow Jared McCann to move back to wing.
Contract estimates: I will mostly use contract estimates from AFPAnalytics NHL projections for 2024-25, published in May. This ensures reasonable contract projections. While I typically reference Evolving Hockey contract projections, sharing their work does not feel right since their work is behind a subscription paywall (I will use one of their contract projections for this exercise).
Target free agents
Viktor Arvidsson – RW – $4.7M AAV Arvidsson, 31, had an injury-plagued season last year, playing just 18 games for the Los Angeles Kings. He’s a proven shooter, and if healthy, can score 20-plus goals. His age and recent injuries might provide a discount for the signing team.
Anthony Duclair – LW/RW – $4.3M AAV Duclair, 29 this summer, is a speedy goal scorer who missed most of the 2022-23 season due to an Achilles injury. He returned in 2023-24 and managed 24 goals across two teams, and despite some defensive flaws, his goal-scoring ability is worth considering.
Jake DeBrusk – LW – $5.8M AAV DeBrusk has been a potential Kraken target since February. Reliable for close to 20 goals a season, his $5.8M AAV might seem high compared to Arvidsson or Duclair, but his health and consistency make him a safer bet.
Chandler Stephenson – C – $5.6M AAV Stephenson could replace Alexander Wennberg but with more goal scoring. A second- or third-line center who can play on special teams, Stephenson has scored 15-plus goals in each of the last four seasons. Although pricey at $5.6M AAV, his experience and two Stanley Cups add value.
Great right pad save by Hill on Burakovsky at one end.
Chandler Stephenson scores on Vegas's first shot of the game at the other end.
Sean Monahan – C – $2.9M AAV Monahan is a cost-effective option that allows for spending elsewhere. As a solid third-line center with some defensive weaknesses, he logged 26 goals last season. Despite a history of injuries, he played 83 games in 2023-24. His face-off skills are notable, though we all know face-offs don’t matter. Evolving-Hockey has Monahan north of $5 million AAV so this might not be as affordable as we thought.
The reality of landing a target
There’s a common misconception that teams can acquire specific players in free agency by simply outbidding others. In reality, most free agents have a shortlist of preferred teams, and agents gauge interest from those teams. This means teams have less than a 15 percent chance of even engaging in discussions with their desired players. Even with a match in interests from both parties, competition remains fierce.
Addressing the Kraken’s goal-scoring issues in free agency requires realistic expectations and working within the constraints of the situation. It is conceivable that most of the goal scoring forwards might not want to play in Seattle given a perceived unlikelihood the Kraken could contend for a Stanley Cup in the next several years.
What are your thoughts? Who do you think the Kraken should target in free agency?
Welcome to Sound Debate! We’ve never tried this before, but John Barr and I (Darren Brown) have enjoyed conversing offline about whether or not the Seattle Kraken should pursue embattled Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner this offseason. Here, we’ve put that discourse into a written format to discuss why Seattle should or shouldn’t attempt to land the high-scoring winger.
To give some context, Marner is an elite playmaking winger and part of the “core four” in Toronto who has come within spitting distance of 100 points on three separate occasions in his eight-year NHL career. His regular season was shortened to 69 games in 2023-24, yet he still managed 85 points (26-59–85) before a relatively quiet playoff series against the Boston Bruins in which he posted a goal and three assists in the seven-game series.
The rub is that the Leafs’ season again ended after one playoff round, and Toronto’s blood-thirsty media is calling for change. Head coach Sheldon Keefe has already been dismissed, and there’s plenty of speculation that the offensive core of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Marner could have a hole blown into it in the coming months. Toronto always has a whipping boy, and–whether fair or not–Marner took that title this season.
Worth noting, Marner also has one season left on a massive six-year deal that comes with a $10.9 million salary cap hit in 2024-25. If Leafs general manager Brad Treliving is truly considering moving Marner, now would be the time to do it. Should Seattle try for him?
Embrace debate.
Q: What would it take for the Kraken to land Marner?
Darren: Several days ago, a speculative article from Sportsnet proposed Adam Larsson and Shane Wright for Marner. I actually think that could be in line with the type of return that could pry Marner out of Toronto. I would absolutely hate to see Wright moved, especially considering the progress he has shown this season toward becoming a bona fide NHL center. He is right on the cusp.
But bringing a player like Marner will only happen if the player(s) and/or picks going back the other way sting for Kraken fans. As for Larsson, John, you mentioned on the latest Sound Of Hockey Podcast that you don’t see him waiving his no-movement clause, and I agree with you. I don’t think he’s going anywhere, but I could see a different defenseman being sent the other way like either Will Borgen or Jamie Oleksiak.
My personal preference would be that the Kraken give whatever they need to give in draft picks plus a supplementary current player to get it done, even if that means trading the No. 8 overall pick in this summer’s draft.
John: Having Wright as part of a deal feels a little rich to me, but that could be an example of the endowment effect, where we tend to value things we own more than they are actually worth. I wouldn’t even want to see Carson Rehkopf as part of a deal, but the Kraken will need to trade something of significant value for the Maple Leafs to even consider it.
The Kraken’s biggest assets are their prospects, and that might not be what the Leafs are looking for right now. If they want to change things up on their roster, they are probably seeking players who can contribute immediately rather than in the future.
A trade for Marner still feels far-fetched because the Kraken don’t have many players on the NHL roster right now that the Leafs would be interested in. And it’s also possible that if the Leafs are interested in any current players, the Kraken may not want to give those players up because they’re too thin right now.
Let’s not forget, Marner has a full no-move clause and controls where he can be dealt. It is entirely possible and likely that Seattle is not on his short list of places he would like to be traded to.
Q: What is the price of prospects you would be willing to pay?
Darren: It scares me to give up Wright. A lot of Seattle’s future currently hinges on his success, and I still love the look of Matty Beniers and Wright as Seattle’s one-two punch in the middle of the ice for years to come.
I wonder if they could keep Wright and send any combination of two other prospects to the Maple Leafs. Would some combination of Rehkopf (John, I know you love him and just said you don’t want him moved, but I would want to keep Wright over Rehkopf), Jagger Firkus, Ryker Evans, and/or Jani Nyman get it done? Those would be easier pills to swallow, and again, draft picks are fine by me.
John: I would do it for Jagger Firkus and Ryker Evans right now, but I am not sure that gets the deal done for Toronto. If it required Shane Wright, I would pass.
Q: Should the Kraken consider trading for Marner?
John: Without question, the Kraken should consider this opportunity. Marner is an elite NHL forward who has consistently ranked in the top 10 in the league for points per game over the last three seasons. Talent of this caliber rarely becomes available, so the Kraken should strongly consider pursuing him if the Leafs start shopping him.
Darren: You’re right, John, and he would instantly become the best player on the Kraken by a long shot. I question how real the desire is from Treliving to move on from Marner at this juncture, but where there’s smoke, there tends to be fire with this kind of thing.
John: I see this situation similar to the Matthew Tkachuk scenario, where the player is entering the final year of his contract, and an extension seems unlikely. They need to get something in return for him, and now would be the opportune moment. However, the player holds significant control in this situation, so it’s debatable whether he would even consider coming to Seattle in the first place.
Darren: This might be the worst “debate” ever, because we’re on the same page a little too much here. Considering it and doing it are two very different things. I do think the Kraken should kick the tires to find out what it would take and if they can somehow lock in an extension for Marner beyond next season.
I also think such an extension would be very un-Ron Francis, in that it would be north of $11 million per year over six-plus years. Can Seattle’s GM stomach that? I’m not convinced.
Q: Is the timing right?
Darren: While I would love for the Kraken front office to investigate how such a deal for an elite winger would look, this timing piece is what makes me think the team should not take this swing right now.
If the roster were one big piece away from Stanley Cup contention, I would say push the chips in and go for it. But the reality is that Seattle is not one player (no matter how good that player is) away from pushing for a championship. The Kraken still need their prospect pool to mature more to be ready to help lead the team to success, rather than just being fringe call-up options like they were this past season.
John: This is where our agreements end, Darren. I personally think that even teams in the earlier stages of rebuilds should always consider acquiring an elite player. I remember the Rangers signing Artemi Panarin in the summer of 2019 after a 32-36-14 season. It seemed premature at the time, but it has proven to be a smart move.
Darren: Fair point, and the Rangers did successfully build up around him. It also helped that they had a No. 1 and a No. 2 overall pick and found another elite goaltender. But, I’m sticking to my guns. One day, I will call for a “chips in” kind of move, but I don’t think today is that day. Instead, they should use their cap space and spare assets to add a couple second-tier scorers this offseason and see what kind of impact that makes.
John: Ok, so it’s settled. We don’t agree on whether the Kraken should trade for Mitch Marner this offseason.
Before we close this out, one aspect we haven’t really addressed yet is the cost of extending Marner should the Kraken acquire him, though you did allude to it earlier. It’s reasonable to assume that his next contract will exceed $11 million per year and likely span a maximum term of eight years. Committing such a significant amount of money to one player will come with opportunity costs, especially considering that if some of the Kraken’s prospects develop into star players, they will also require substantial contracts. While this isn’t a major obstacle to completing the deal, it’s important to consider all the impacts of a potential trade.
Darren: Yeah, I kind of see that as the cost of doing business, though. If you want to bring in an elite player and inject a star into your lineup from another team, then you have to pay him and deal with the consequences later. But it’s another reason I don’t think Seattle should do this right now, because it goes against the approach of Francis.
While I’ve found myself taking the “don’t do it” stance in this debate, if the Kraken surprise me and take this swing, I won’t be mad about it. Instead, I would be thrilled to see Marner in deep sea blue.
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What do you think, folks? If you had the opportunity, would you trade for Mitch Marner this summer?
I assure you, there will be extensive analysis of the Seattle Kraken’s performance throughout the 2023-24 season in the coming days, weeks, and months. We’ll delve deeper into what went wrong and speculate on offseason plans starting this week.
My mind is filled with topics to investigate and evaluate. Each investigation takes me down a different rabbit hole, and these don’t always yield findings worth sharing, so it will take me time to get through these. In the meantime, I thought I would wrap up the season with a final ‘Monday Musings.’
Injuries
Injuries were mentioned a couple of times during the season-ending press availabilities, and they truly took a toll on Seattle’s performance throughout the year. While maladies were a constant presence, we may not have fully grasped the extent of the challenge they presented this season for the Kraken.
Injuries are a part of the game, and the team faced a few last season as well. It’s hard to compare how this season’s man-games lost relates with last season or with other teams because of players on LTIR (Chris Driedger was included in Seattle’s man-games lost in 2022-23 but was replaced by Martin Jones).
Regardless, the above chart gives a good feel for just how much hockey was missed by key players. Due to turnover on the goal-scoring fourth line, the margin for error became much narrower this season. So in a season where goal-scoring was a challenge, the extended absences of Andre Burakovsky, Jaden Schwartz, and Vince Dunn had a significantly greater impact compared to the 2022-23 season.
Watching the playoffs though a Kraken lens
During Saturday night’s playoff game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins, I sent out a tongue-in-cheek tweet suggesting Mitch Marner could be traded to Seattle. While a Marner trade would be a long shot, these are the types of scenarios that general manager Ron Francis could be considering during the offseason. Players entering the last year of their contract, with several quality years left in their career, may become targets—especially those unlikely to re-sign with their current team or in situations where the current club is seeking change. Marner is just one example of the type of player Francis could be exploring.
As I watch every second of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, I also find myself keeping an eye on pending free agents who might fit into the Kraken’s lineup next season. In my opinion, signing the top free agents with lengthy contracts isn’t ideal, as they often don’t age well. Instead, the team needs a reliable goal scorer who can commit to a shorter contract of two or three years while the prospect pool matures. Among the players I’ve observed in the playoffs who fit this criteria are Tyler Toffoli, Anthony Duclair, and Jake DeBrusk. All three of them possess goal-scoring abilities and would be valuable additions to help address the team’s pressing need for scoring.
Thoughts on the new TV deal
The feedback and thoughts about the new Kraken TV partnership with TEGNA (KING 5/KONG) and Amazon Prime Video have been overwhelmingly positive. This partnership will remove significant financial barriers for fans to enjoy Kraken games. I’ve received numerous texts from Kraken fans expressing excitement about finally being able to watch locally broadcasted games.
However, a couple of fans raised legitimate questions. For instance, how will people in Idaho and Montana watch the games? The Kraken’s press release specifically mentioned availability in Washington, Oregon, and Alaska, suggesting that Idaho and Montana may not have local broadcast access via over-the-air or Amazon Prime Video.
We asked about this and were told that viewers in those states can subscribe to ESPN+ to watch games as “out of market” fans.
Another question is whether Amazon Prime Video will offer the capability to start games on a delay. Not everyone can make it home for a 4 pm start for games on the East Coast and might prefer a ‘start from the beginning’ option. While this feature is standard for many streaming services, Amazon’s first-time regional game broadcast could see some evolution in capabilities.
Regarding replays, will they be available on Amazon Prime Video immediately or will fans need to wait 48 hours as with ESPN+? NFL game replays on Prime Video are typically available right away, but it’s uncertain whether the same will apply to these games.
We have also asked about the ‘DVR’ functionality and will pass along what we hear back.
Fans have also asked about pre- and post-game shows. How will these be presented, and will Piper Shaw be joining the team? Imagine a world without #TheExperience!
This transition in distribution is a significant undertaking, and I anticipate there may be some initial challenges. Let’s all practice patience as the Kraken work to develop this new solution.
Other Musings
In case you missed it, the Kraken signed Carson Rehkopf, one of their second-round selections from last year’s draft, after his Kitchener Rangers squad was eliminated from the OHL playoffs. He will be joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds for their playoff run.
With the signing of Rehkopf, Oscar Fisker-Mølgaard remains as the last unsigned second-round pick from last year’s draft. Expect him to join the Denmark national team at the IIHF World Championship in Czechia.
The Kraken will have strong representation at the upcoming World Championship, starting May 10, as announced by Ron Francis in his postseason press availability. Players such as Jared McCann, Brandon Tanev, Jamie Oleksiak, Andre Burakovsky, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Philipp Grubauer, and Tomas Tatar will be playing for their respective countries.
Although it feels like ages ago, I was deeply moved watching the final Arizona Coyotes game at Mullett Arena. When I started NHLtoSeattle some 14 years ago, the possibility of the Coyotes relocating to Seattle was often discussed. I vividly recall texting with the prospective ownership group on the night of the Glendale vote in 2013. It wasn’t something I was rooting for, but I was certainly keeping a close eye on it. There were incredibly dedicated fans there, and I hope the NHL returns to Arizona soon.
The Coyotes have made the playoffs only once since the NHL-owned team reached the Western Conference Final in 2012.
Here’s an interesting tidbit I came across recently: During the 2023-24 season, the Kraken had 15 fighting majors. Interestingly, seven out of the nine teams with fewer fighting majors than the Kraken are currently in the playoffs.
Get Off My Lawn
With the significant news of the Seattle Kraken moving on from ROOT Sports, I began researching streaming options. The top two choices for my needs are YouTube TV and Hulu + Live TV, with Hulu + Live TV being the favorite due to its bundle options with ESPN+. However, a major drawback with either option is the inability to add the NHL Network.
For passionate hockey fans like myself, the NHL Network offers 24/7 hockey content and serves as the home for events like the U18’s, Women’s Worlds, Men’s World Juniors, and Rivalry Series games. The only alternative streaming option would be Sling, but adding the NHL Network requires subscribing to the Orange package (~$40) and then purchasing the ‘Sports Extra’ add-on for an additional $10, totaling an extra $50 per month. That’s a bit steep for just adding the NHL Network, so I’ll pass on that option.
NHL Network distribution options, get off my lawn.
Down on the Farm
The Coachella Valley Firebirds earned a first-round bye in the Calder Cup Playoffs, and their second-round matchup is now set against the Calgary Wranglers. The series will follow a five-game format with the first two games scheduled in Calgary and the next three in Coachella Valley. This two-three format is often used to reduce travel costs when teams are geographically distant. Similarly, Abbotsford and Ontario are adopting a similar format for their series. I don’t love it for the Firebirds’ sake, since it feels like a disadvantage to open the series on the road.
Here is the schedule:
In case you missed it, early last week the Kraken and Firebirds announced that prospects Carson Rehkopf, David Goyette, Caden Price, Kaden Hammell, Andrei Loshko, and Eduard Šalé would be joining the Firebirds. Most of these guys will not get into any playoff games and are just around to absorb the pro atmosphere. But don’t be surprised if a couple of them get into a few games. Last season, Goyette ended up playing seven AHL playoff games after his junior season ended. Jagger Firkus and Jacob Melanson also got into one AHL playoff game each last season.
Speaking of Firkus, he will not be joining the Firebirds, since his Moose Jaw Warriors are still going and are knotted up at one game apiece against the Saskatoon Blades in Round 3 of the WHL Playoffs. On the other side of the WHL playoff bracket, Tyson Jugnauth and the Portland Winterhawks are tied 1-1 in their series with Prince George. Meanwhile, Ty Nelson of the North Bay Battalion is the only Kraken prospect still playing in the OHL playoffs.
You Don’t See That Every Day
This happened a while ago, but any time you see a goalie goal, you share it.
This is just a friendly reminder that the Kraken still have more playoff wins in the last three seasons than Vancouver.
Thank you all for reading and engaging with the Musings this season. It has been a rewarding routine that sparked discussions about the highlights and challenges of the Kraken’s season. Your thoughtful interactions in the comments section have been enriching and sometimes challenging, expanding my perspective and prompting me to reconsider my assumptions. Once again, thank you!
I have a substantial backlog of areas to investigate, but if you have any thoughts or ideas, please share them in the comments section.
After enduring two rather uninspiring Seattle Kraken games this weekend, I didn’t have it in me to spend the time putting together my typical verbose narrative on the last week of Kraken hockey. To fill the void, I am going to dig into something that has been troubling this team all season: the lack of goal scoring.
The scope of this analysis is limited to aggregated team data and not individual player performance. I will spend some time examining the players’ performances in a future article, but for now, let’s explore to gain a deeper understanding of where this team has seen drops and try to understand why they have happened.
Average goals scored
Just to ensure we are all starting from the same point, let’s note that Seattle has had the largest drop in the NHL for average goals scored per game season over season and has the third-lowest goals scored per game in the league.
The lack of goal scoring was particularly evident in the last three games, where the Kraken only managed to score one goal in each. Sunday marked the 25th game of the season where the Seattle Kraken were held to one goal or less. They had only 15 such games last season, and even in the inaugural season, challenging as it was, they only had 16 games where they scored one goal or less.
Situations
Okay. We all know scoring is down, but where exactly?
The drop in even-strength goals is significant. There are still two more games to play, but the Kraken have seen a 35-percent drop in even-strength goals this season. Two factors could be impacting the scoring: the total volume of shots, shooting percentage, or both. Let’s examine the last two seasons.
The volume of shots on goal seems roughly in line with the league average, but there’s a significant drop from last season. A conservative estimate would still put Seattle with more than a 5-percent drop in shots on goal from last season. However, that’s not the whole story.
The real story of the season is the Kraken’s drop in 5-on-5 shooting percentage. Last season, they had the highest 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the league at 11 percent. While a drop was expected this season, this seems like an overcorrection that is unlikely to persist next season.
The Kraken will end the season with a 5-on-5 shooting percentage around 8.0 percent, compared to the league average of 9.3 percent. If they had shot at a league-average rate, that additional 1.3 percent would have netted them an additional 24 goals this season. Those 24 goals could have gone a long way for a team that lost 24 of their 38 one-goal games (adjusted for empty-net goals).
Quality of shots
The next logical question becomes why their shooting percentage was so low this season. A couple of theories could be related to talent on the ice or a systems issue, but for the scope of this post, I am going to look at the quality of shots that were taken. For this analysis, I will be leveraging the great work from Natural Stat Trick.
The volume of high-danger and medium-danger shots was down season over season, which means the mix of shot quality changed. With low-quality shots comprising a higher percentage of the overall shots, it helps explain why the overall shooting percentage is down.
For completeness, let’s examine the shooting percentage by shot quality.
Not only is the volume of high-danger and medium-danger shots down, but the shooting percentage of those two shot qualities is also down. In essence, it was a double whammy, lower quality-shot volume and lower execution on the quality shots.
Scratching the surface
This analysis covers a lot of ground, but it only scratches the surface. In the coming weeks, we will explore a couple of other areas that could be contributing factors to Seattle’s dearth of scoring. I plan to delve into the roster next week, but if there are other areas you want me to explore, please let me know, and I will see what I can do.
Regardless of the playoff picture, I still enjoy watching the Kraken right now, especially when they win. The Kraken completed their California swing with wins against the Sharks and Ducks and a loss to the Kings in between. Sure, the victories were against two of the weaker teams in the league, but wins are wins, and you certainly wouldn’t want to see them lose to those teams, would you?
Shane Wright looks good
In my limited viewing of Coachella Valley Firebirds games and discussions I’ve had with people inside the Kraken, Shane Wright’s development has been very positive this season. The 20-year-old center has looked impressive since being called up on March 31, though I understand it has only been a few games. While I am excited about Shane, I remain cautious with prospects, knowing there’s an inherent bias in valuing something you possess. Nonetheless, we can appreciate what we’ve seen from him so far.
He scored a goal in his first game against the Sharks and added two against the Ducks on Friday night. However, his contributions extend beyond goal scoring. Wright plays sound defense, delivers quick, creative passes, and consistently positions himself well for scoring. He did make a few mistakes in his three games so far, but these should serve as learning opportunities.
When he was called up for three games in November, Wright appeared competent but cautious, often opting for the safe play to avoid errors. Although he wasn’t on a line with Jordan Eberle and Jaden Schwartz that time, which might have altered his current role with the big club, he now exudes more confidence and poses a greater threat on the ice than before.
Tremendous give and go between Wright and Schwartz in the neutral zone and then another that ends in a royal road feed from Eberle to Wright for the goal pic.twitter.com/pn3bs2wj9I
When evaluating Shane Wright’s development, I often compare it to the development path of Quinton Byfield, the Los Angeles Kings’ centerman. Their paths are not identical, but Wright and Byfield share similarities. Byfield, drafted second overall in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, was an OHL player. Due to the pandemic, he was allowed to spend his draft-plus-one season in the AHL and began playing most of his games in the NHL from the 2021-22 season onwards. However, it wasn’t until this season, four years after his draft year, that Byfield began to hit his stride at the top level, just as pundits were speculating that he might be a bust.
Shane is currently in his draft-plus-two season and, by all indications, will become a regular in the NHL next year, his draft-plus-three season. If he follows Byfield’s trajectory, we might not see his full capabilities in the NHL until 2025-26. The broader point is that we still need to be patient. What we should look for is progress in his development, which we have undoubtedly observed since he joined the franchise.
Other Musings
Friday’s win against the Ducks was Seattle’s eighth regular-season win against Anaheim since the inception of the Kraken, the most wins they have posted against any one team. The Kraken have the chance to beat the Sharks for the eighth time on Thursday in Seattle.
Logan Morrison and Ryan Winterton were scratched from games this week, a strategy often deployed when developing players to provide them with a different perspective of the game. This allows them to apply what they have learned from the handful of NHL games they’ve experienced at ice level and observe it from above. We would expect the duo to get another game or two at the NHL level before being sent back to Coachella Valley.
I would not pencil Morrison or Winterton into the lineup next year. Both show promise, but I am not convinced they will be ready to be regular NHLers next season.
Congratulations to Lleyton Roed on scoring his first professional goal on Sunday, just a week after signing his first professional hockey contract.
— x – Coachella Valley Firebirds (@Firebirds) April 8, 2024
After experiencing lots of challenges this season, Matty Beniers has been finding the net more often, with goals in four of his last six games. Below is his 10-game moving average of goals scored per game, which shows his scoring trend over 10 games at a time.
The IIHF Women’s World Championship kicked off last week, and one of the marquee games of the opening round is Canada versus USA at 7 p.m. PT, airing Monday on the NHL Network. Check it out if you are so inclined.
Speaking of international tournaments, it will be interesting to see how many Kraken players will participate in the men’s version of the IIHF World Championships in Czechia, which kick off in May. One player expected to represent Denmark is Kraken prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard. I’ve discussed him extensively this year, but this will be an opportunity to see how he fares against a number of NHL players.
The Kansas City Mavericks, the Seattle Kraken’s ECHL affiliate, clinched the Brabham Cup over the weekend, an award given to the top team of the regular season. In full transparency, I had never heard of the Brabham Cup before.
We alluded to it last week, and now it has been confirmed: Jani Nyman is joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
The Everett Silvertips closed out their first-round series against the Vancouver Giants on Sunday. They will face the Portland Winterhawks in the second round, which kicks off on Friday in Portland. The Winterhawks won six of the eight regular-season games between the two teams.
Player performances
Niklas Kokko (PEL/SEA) – Since last Monday, the Kraken goalie prospect won a decisive Game 7 in the opening round of the Liiga playoffs and then won the first two games of the semifinal matchup against his former team, Karpat. He has a .925 save percentage in those two games.
David Goyette (SBY/SEA) – The Kraken’s second-round selection from the 2022 NHL Draft had nine points, including four goals, in the Sudbury Wolves’ first-round series win against the Mississauga Steelheads. The Wolves won the series in five games and will now face Ty Nelson and the North Bay Battalion in Round 2.
Shane Wright (SEA) – We’ve talked about him a lot lately, but he has four points in his three games with the Kraken since he was called up.
Goal of the week
The goal of the week comes from the semifinals of the SHL playoffs, Växjö Lakers vs Rögle BK.
The analytics community has long understood that outhitting an opponent in a hockey game does not necessarily lead to more wins. The overarching idea is that if you’re outhitting an opponent, it likely means you don’t have the puck. Recently, I’ve noticed a broad group of media outlets highlighting hitting as if it were a key component of success on the ice. This has made me somewhat uneasy, so I decided to investigate how well the Kraken perform when outhitting opponents versus being outhit this season.
When the Kraken are “close” with their opponent in terms of the number of hits delivered, or they deliver at least four fewer hits than their opponent, their winning percentage is significantly higher.
The week ahead
The Kraken will play their last two home games this week, taking on the Coyotes on Tuesday and the Sharks on Thursday. Despite the challenges of the past six weeks, I’ll be sad to see the season end. I still love watching the team play, and if it weren’t for the unrealistic expectations created by last year’s team, I would have been content with this season. The Kraken are laying the groundwork to become a perennial playoff contender, rather than a team that gambles too early and risks having to rebuild. In short, while I would have been thrilled to see them in the playoffs, I appreciate the direction they’re heading.
I have a personal backlog of offseason analysis and investigation, but please let me know if there’s anything specific you’d like me to focus on as the season winds down.
