With the signing of John Klingberg last Friday, we can start to do some analysis of the free agency period this offseason. There are still plenty of NHL players out there, but they will trickle in until late September, and it feels possible Nazem Kadri will wait to “officially” sign with the New York Islanders until the night before the Islanders kick off their training camp. Still, there’s enough data now to take a look at how this free agency period stacks up to prior seasons.
Total dollars committed in NHL free agency
Here is a look at total dollars committed to one-way free agent deals through day 20 of the free agency window. This includes restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents but does not include extension signings for players that were already under contract for 2022-23.
Through Monday, spending is down 18 percent at this point in the free agency window compared to last year but up significantly compared to 2020. This change is being driven by a reduction in total volume of signings. Last year at this point in free agency, 156 players had signed new contracts compared to just 125 through Monday.
Matthew Tkachuk ($76M), Johnny Gaudreau ($68M), and Josh Norris ($44M) are the big-ticket free agents this year compared to last year’s big free agency signings, Dougie Hamilton ($63M), Zach Werenski ($58M), and Adam Pelech ($46M).
Here is a look at the cumulated total of commitments by day of free agency.
It is challenging to determine what is driving the drop in signings other than teams are feeling the cap crunch right now and hoping to find bargains by waiting it out.
AAV also slightly down
The Average Annual Value, often referred to as AAV or salary cap hit, is down slightly compared to last year. Even though there are still some signings to be made between now and training camp in September, this number should stay in line with the current $2.2 million average AAV.
NHL free agency spend by team
When you break it down by team, the list at the top is predictable and obvious, based on the deals getting announced over the last few weeks.
Columbus went big with Johnny Gaudreau at $68 million, but they also re-signed Patrik Laine to a contract worth a total value of $35 million. Some people might be surprised to see Calgary in the top three, but remember that Matthew Tkachuk was a “sign-and-trade” to the Florida Panthers.
A couple other items of note:
Calgary still has two restricted free agents that have elected salary arbitration hearings in Andrew Mangiapane and Oliver Kylington. Both players are due significant pay increases that could bump Calgary over the Senators with the second-most commitments this free agent period.
As mentioned above, it is possible that Lou Lamoriello and the New York Islanders have signed several free agents but will not announce them until September.
Minnesota’s only pending restricted free agent, Kevin Fiala, was traded to the Los Angeles Kings before the free agency period started. It is entirely possible that they do not sign anyone during the free agency period.
Here is a look at how teams’ spending commitments compare to last year.
Kraken free agency spend details
During free agency last year, the Kraken were a brand-new franchise and theoretically had a lot more flexibility. This season, they had cap space but leveraged that space with the Oliver Bjorkstrand trade and signings of Andre Burakovsky, Martin Jones, and Justin Schultz. Here is the detail behind the Kraken free agency spending.
League assessment
The pandemic-impacted flat salary cap continues to impact free agency signings. After an increase in AAV from 2017 to 2019, average AAV in 2022 has not reached pre-pandemic levels as teams continue to get closer and sometimes over the salary cap. The cap will eventually increase, but in the meantime, there are several players that are seeing their earning power diminished in critical times in their respective careers.
We knew it. We just knew the Kraken weren’t done making moves this offseason, and they showed on Friday that they were willing to use up most of their remaining $9+ million in cap space to make themselves better. The team announced that it had acquired 27-year-old Danish winger Oliver Bjorkstrand from the Columbus Blue Jackets for third- and fourth-round draft picks in 2023.
Each of the two picks given up had been acquired by Seattle in previous trades with Calgary and Winnipeg, and the Kraken did not have to sacrifice any of their growing prospect pool. Those picks were draft capital well spent, as the team landed a true top-six talent for a bargain price.
Interestingly, Bjorkstrand was a third-round pick himself, back in 2013, but has vastly exceeded the expectations that typically come with being the No. 89 overall pick. “We’re excited to welcome Oliver to our organization,” general manager Ron Francis said via press release. “His creativity and hockey sense will be good additions to our forward group.”
The Kraken got a steal here.
Oliver Bjorkstrand by the numbers
Bjorkstrand is coming off a career year in Columbus, in which he scored 28 goals and 29 assists in 80 regular-season games. Last season wasn’t a flash in the pan, either, as he has eclipsed the 20-goal mark three times in the last four campaigns. In 2019-20, Bjorkstrand potted 21 goals in just 49 games. So, there is a real track record there of offensive contributions by a player who simply demanded playing time in Columbus’ top six.
Advanced analytics folks are high on Bjorkstrand as well, with Top Down Hockey giving him a projected wins above replacement rating of 92 percent.
Oliver Bjorkstrand, traded to SEA, is a play-driving two-way scorer who's one of those players who's good at pretty much everything. An excellent forechecker and especially good at creating shots. #SeaKrakenpic.twitter.com/NUVuR3RUBB
Evolving Hockey gave Bjorkstrand a 90 overall rating, placing him in the 82nd and 89th percentiles respectively for offense and defense. They also said this:
Seattle adding Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand after getting Shane Wright at fourth overall… really having a fantastic offseason
The Blue Jackets shocked the hockey world when they came out of nowhere and signed Johnny Gaudreau to a seven-year deal at a $9.75 million cap hit. They followed that up by signing Patrik Laine to a four-year extension at a $8.7 million cap hit, and suddenly Columbus was projecting to be way over the salary cap.
So, to free space, they moved Bjorkstrand. One team’s cap crunch is another team’s treasure (we’re pretty sure that’s how the saying goes).
Bjorkstrand signed an extension with Columbus in January of 2021. The deal runs through the 2025-26 season at a very fair annual cap hit of $5.4 million. This means the Kraken will project to have about $3.6 million in cap space left, but some of that will need to go to restricted free agent Morgan Geekie, who filed for arbitration earlier in the week. If Seattle ends up going over the cap, they have the option of placing Chris Driedger on long-term injured reserve, which temporarily would give them $3.5 million in additional space.
How does Bjorkstrand fit in with the Kraken?
On our latest Sound Of Hockey Podcast episode, we mentioned we thought there was still a glaring hole in Seattle’s forward lineup. 24 hours later, that is no longer the case, as the team’s roster suddenly looks mostly set and significantly more like a contender than it did earlier in the week.
Using JFresh’s roster builder tool, we slotted Bjorkstrand into a second-line role with Andre Burakovsky and Alex Wennberg. The tool predicted 94 standings points for the Kraken in 2022-23, but lacking sufficient data on Matty Beniers, the tool only allows us to insert him as a replacement-level player. We believe Beniers will be far above a replacement-level player. Plus, Shane Wright is not even factored in here.
We were concerned that Seattle had only marginally improved in free agency, but now that the team has layered in a trade acquisition of Bjorkstrand, a guy who can play at both ends of the ice and score at even strength and on the power play, the Kraken could be a playoff contender after all. We still think there is an upgrade that could be made at right defense, but unless that comes by way of a dollar-for-dollar trade, such an addition would put the Kraken into a cap crunch of their own.
It has been a very busy week around the hockey world and for the Seattle Kraken. Now that the dust has settled, John, Andy, and Darren have a lot to recap and consider, and they do just that on this week’s episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast.
The guys start with a breakdown of Seattle’s biggest free agent signings and give their thoughts on what the team did as a whole. They also discuss Ron Francis’s closing press conference on free agency day and the reports that Eddie Olczyk could be joining the Kraken organization.
After lots of Kraken talk, the guys shift their attention to the NHL as a whole, giving time to the Matthew Tkachuk situation in Calgary and Johnny Gaudreau’s departure from that team. They also do an “Interesting or Carry On” for free-agent signings and trades throughout the league.
They close the show with Weekly One-Timers and Tweets of the Week.
The Seattle Kraken prospects got a taste of game action Wednesday afternoon at the Kraken Community Iceplex, but the biggest moment happened immediately after.
Players were split into three sperate teams, and the one wearing light blue sweaters, which featured Shane Wright, was the winner of what was a three-on-three round robin tournament. Wright was the ultimate winner as Seattle general manager Ron Francis, moments after it was reported that he had signed Andre Burakovsky to a free-agent deal, came on the ice and announced that the Kraken were going to sign Wright to his three-year entry-level contract.
The rookie, who the Kraken selected with the fourth overall pick in last week’s NHL Draft, signed on the dotted line and then threw a fish into the crowd.
“I think [my fish throw] was all right,” Wright said after. “Hopefully, I’ll get some more practice in this year, and we can work on it a little, but it wasn’t terrible for my first time, I don’t think.”
Wright signing his first NHL contract is no surprise. It was expected that the team would look to sign him, and it’s likely that he’ll play in the league this season. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a meaningful moment for the 18-year-old.
“It’s just another step in my journey,” Wright said. “The first step is to get drafted and next step is to sign the contract, and then the next step is to play my first game and be a regular on the team. Huge honor for me and a really exciting moment for sure.”
After two days of nothing but drills, Wright was all smiles after getting a chance to go out and play a game. Plus, his team won.
“I enjoy practice and I enjoy drills and all that, but you love playing games,” Wright said. “You love competing, you love making plays out there and competing with your teammates and against them as well. So obviously it’s one thing to do drills, but it’s another thing playing games and competing is a lot of fun. Definitely happy that we did that today.”
Beniers dominates scrimmage
Matty Beniers was the only player on the ice who has played in the NHL, and it showed Wednesday. He was the best player by a good head and shoulder and had at least two goals and four assists – there was no official scoring.
While it’s not surprising, and he should be the best player on the ice, it was good to see just how much he dominated every shift he took. He scored early but also set up teammates with pinpoint and creative passes.
Wright looked commanding as well, and while he did not score a goal, he created chances all day. His highlight was a full-length, 100-foot stretch pass right to the stick of Luke Henman, who would score a goal.
Jagger Firkus has dangles
If he had scored a goal it would have been the play of the game, but Firkus, picked 35th overall by the Kraken in Montreal, got one of the biggest rounds of oohs and ahhhs from the crowd. First he slid the puck through a defender’s legs to create room. He picked the puck back up and tried to go between his legs for a shot on goal, only to be denied by goalie Niklas Kokko.
Jagger Firkus showed off his creativity on Wednesday. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Overall, Firkus was noticeable throughout the game in creating a number of scoring chances.
Tucker Robertson
Seattle fourth-round pick, Robertson, had a strong scrimmage with some strong moves to the net and scored a couple of goals. He scored 41 goals last season with the Ontario Hockey League’s Peterborough Petes.
Tucker Robertson has had a strong development camp. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
This has been and will continue to be an extremely busy couple of weeks for the Seattle Kraken. They followed up an awesome draft by bringing all their prospects in for development camp, which remains underway. That camp coincides with the deadline for qualifying restricted free agents (Seattle opted not to offer contracts to Ryan Donato, Haydn Fleury, Daniel Sprong, or Dennis Cholowski). It also coincides with free agency opening on Wednesday.
With all this in mind, John, Andy, and Darren try to talk you off the ledge a bit about the players that are (likely) not being brought back by trying to help you understand the big picture of these decisions. An important piece of that is the many quality players that will be available in free agency, so they also help you prep for that.
Also on this episode, the guys will take a journey around the league to bring you up to speed on decision (trades, qualifying offers, etc.) that are being made around the league.
