There has been a lot of talk about the battle for the Hart Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s MVP, between Auston Matthews (TOR) and Connor McDavid (EDM). For this week’s Data Dump Saturday, I want to dig into the numbers between these two players to demonstrate the thought process when evaluating who is truly the best.
The Basics
Points, goals, and assists are the most basic level of statistics when evaluating a player so let us start there to establish a baseline for comparison.
Next, let’s consider the number of games played. As of now, Toronto has played 50 games while Edmonton has played 48. Matthews also missed four games due to injury so we should consider average points, goals, and assists per game to make it a more level playing field.
There is no material change, but averages are better for comparing players with a different number of games played.
By Opponent
Now let us peek at what teams these players are feasting on this season.
Both players are taking advantage of the Ottawa Senators, averaging two points or more per game. Additionally, McDavid must love facing the Winnipeg Jets, while Matthews does pretty well against Montreal. These matchups might be worth noting because coincidentally the first-round Stanley Cup Playoff matchups appear to be Toronto versus Montreal and Edmonton versus Winnipeg.
Add more context
Any goals are valuable, but there are certain scenarios where it is easier to score goals, like on the power play. To even this out let us look at the point production without the power play points.
This starts to level out the scoring, but McDavid still leads Matthews in points when we just isolate even strength points.
Another way we can add context to the point production of these two players is by looking at what period of the game they are scoring their points.
One may think that scoring more at the end of the game could be considered more meaningful. As such, one might think that McDavid is more clutch by scoring more points late in the game, right? Not necessarily. We are missing context. What if Toronto tends to enter the third with a bigger lead than Edmonton does in its games? If Toronto establishes a lead in a game early then this would enable them to play a more defensive-minded game later, thereby limiting the opportunity for Matthews to score. I do not know if this is the case, but these are contextual questions that might be asked when evaluating players.
Game situation
The last comparison I am going to look at is the game scenario in which the player scores a goal. This is not perfect, but I want to try to isolate more meaningful goals based on what is the situation in which the player scores.
To do this, I am going to show the goal differential after the player scores. For example, if the Toronto Maple Leafs are down 3-1 and Auston Matthews scores a goal to bring the score to 3-2, the goal differential is -1. It would be considered a more meaningful goal than if Matthews were to score when the game is 5-0.
Assuming you believe the smaller the goal differential at the time the goal is scored, the more meaningful the goal, Auston Matthews scores more meaningful goals. 58% of his goals tie the game up or put his team up by one goal compared to 50% of McDavid’s goals.
My intent of this week’s data dump is just to showcase the thought process in evaluating players and their commonly reported stats. Context is very important to evaluate players and will be very important for the Seattle Kraken when considering who to select for the Expansion Draft and beyond. I hope this sheds a bit of light on the topic and would love to hear any ideas or thoughts on how you would evaluate players in the Expansion Draft.
Sound Of Hockey has a super fun and interesting interview this week with Seattle Kraken director of player personnel, Norm Maciver. Norm played 12 seasons in the NHL and had some fascinating stops and stories along the way. In his post-playing career, he has found success as an NHL executive, serving as assistant general manager for the Chicago Blackhawks before moving into his current role with the Kraken.
John, Andy, and Darren close out their interview with Norm by challenging him to a game of Let’s Get Quizzical about himself.
When we last left off on our oral history of the Seattle Thunderbirds 2017 WHL Championship season, Seattle had swept the Everett Silvertips in the second round and were set to play a series with the Kelowna Rockets in the conference finals for the second time in two years.
The Thunderbirds went up early against the Rockets but would suffer an injury in Game 4 that seemed like it might sink the ship. Defenseman Ethan Bear was hit with a puck that would break a bone in his hand and force him to miss the remainder of the series.
As they had all year, the Thunderbirds managed to overcome and advance in six games.
Ethan Bear: They had a five-on-three and I think it was Reid Gardiner who came back as a 20. He was a powerhouse; he had a hard shot. Sure enough, I went down to block it and broke my finger. For me, that was pretty frightening.
Keegan Kolesar: It was a tough one because I know how he felt. No one wants to miss out, especially in the playoffs. When a player like that goes down you think about it for a second and it’s next man up. He was a huge portion of our defense.
Austin Strand: When he went down and blocked that shot, we lost a key guy. It was pretty tough there.
Donovan Neuls: That one really set us back. He was just a big part of our team and a bigger part of our power play with his shot from the point. With him in the lineup we were all really confident.
Bear: I remember going out in the warmups (in the next game) to try and get them to think I’m ready to go. I think everyone was too smart for that. They knew I was faking it. I knew I couldn’t go. I was just trying to be a decoy and get in their heads and act like I was going.
Scott Eansor: Through all these injuries Steve (Konowalchuk) did an excellent job making everyone feel they were a part of the team. Guys stepped up, all the D. They really stepped up in those key moments.
Bear: One thing I’ll always remember is the practice before Game 1 of the finals to determine if I was going to play. Barzy was saying, ‘You’re good to go, you’re good to go.’ There was one neutral zone pass where I sauced it to Gropper and all the boys were tapping their sticks saying, ‘You’re in!’
Ethan Bear recovered from a broken hand to play in the WHL Championship Series (Brian Liesse)
Kolesar: I remember the practice because their coaching staff was watching from the balcony. We knew they were watching so we mixed up everything. All our jerseys were different, different lines just so we could throw them off.
Turner Ottenbreit: He had surgery and it was up in the air. Just before the Regina series he came out in practice and somehow looked normal. I don’t know how he did it.
Strand: He was playing with a broken hand the rest of the way. Big ups for him being such a beast. I think he was even taking one-timers and they were still bombs.
Bear returns as the Thunderbirds open the Championship Series in Regina
Game 1 of the WHL Championship series was eventful. Bear played and opened the scoring when he blasted a point shot to put the Thunderbirds up 1-0.
Bear: One of my favorite goals I’ve ever scored. I didn’t know that I could take slapshots. They were giving me all the time and space and I just took it. It made them tighten up.
Matt O’Dette: It was a goosebump moment when he came back against Regina. We were wondering how much he could shoot, and he rips one bar down from the point. We knew at that point that Bearsy was back. That was a turning point, we needed Bearsy and Bearsy was back.
Eansor: Bear is like everyone’s best friend on the team, he was one of my best buddies. It was so fun having him out there and battle through that. It wasn’t easy on him, that was tough. He’s an ox and he’s still shooting one-timers with a broken bone.
Ottenbreit: Game one and ripped one top corner and it shut up everyone.
Game 1 took a turn early when Ottenbreit caught Regina star Adam Brooks with an open ice hit. Brooks left the game and would not return until Game 6.
Bear: That kind of showed Otto’s game, his dominance, his presence. He doesn’t back down from anybody and it gave us confidence. We’re a physical team and we might have 50 hits a game. It was why we win, we talked to guys we played, and they hated it.
Eansor: That’s a series-changing hit right there. You never want to see a guy hurt but Otto was massive in that series and he was a big, big part of our team.
Strand: I think that definitely worried those guys. Just losing your best players is tough and then everyone is thinking twice. It built on our confidence.
Ottenbreit: You only play those guys once a year and I don’t know if they knew what to expect. We were a big physical team and that’s part of the reason we were successful. You don’t like to see anyone get hurt.
Kolesar: I’m really tight with Brooks, we grew up together. That was a tough one to watch, but at the end of the day I wanted to win a championship and after the game I called him to see if we was ok. He was good with it; he was pissed because it was his last year. Part of me always wonders how the series would have gone because he was such a good player.
Game 1 would go into overtime and Bear once again would show his toughness. He took another big shot from the point that hit the crossbar. Neuls was there to get the rebound and Seattle took a 1-0 series lead.
Neuls: He hit the crossbar and it was just laying there. I just remember the puck sitting there and I don’t think I had two hands on my stick, I shot it like a pool stick. I remember after the game, my mom told me she couldn’t even watch the overtime.
Thunderbirds return home to a packed ShoWare Center
Seattle lost Game 2 in Regina. Tied at 1-1, the series shifted back to Seattle and the ShoWare Center. Regina won Game 3 but the Thunderbirds stormed back with two dominant wins to take control of the Championship series. Game 5 was memorable, as it was the largest crowd in ShoWare Center history and the last for the Thunderbirds core group who were now just one win away from winning the WHL Championship series.
Neuls: It was crazy. Game 5 was insane and was the loudest crowd I’ve played in. It gave me chills and they are the best fans I’ve played in front of.
Bear: Honestly, like nothing I’d ever played in. The crowd in Seattle, in Kent, is unbelievable. It was insane how loud that rink is and how loud it got. It’s some of the best memories I have. To play those final three games and win is a good memory for everybody. It was definitely hard to say goodbye.
Eansor: I just remember thinking, knowing it was my last game at the Showare, just feeling in the back of your head you’re just so thankful being able to play there. I wanted to leave a mark in my last game and that was a big thing for all of us. We loved being there and playing for Seattle. That last game and atmosphere I don’t think any of us will forget.
Kolesar: The last game, it was emotional. That was a tough one, we fell behind and battled back and finally ran away with it. During the whole game I thought, ‘This is it, the last time playing in the Showare.’ It’s hard to think about after so many games.
Ottenbreit: We always have the best fans in the league and they’re next to none. I can’t say enough good things about the fans in Seattle.
The Thunderbirds return to Regina with a chance to wrap up Championship Series
Up 3-2 in the series, the Thunderbirds headed back to Regina on the doorstep of winning a championship. The pressure was on to win the series in Game 6 and avoid an anything-goes Game 7.
Neuls: We knew we didn’t want a Game 7, we wanted to close it out.
Kolesar: Hell yeah, if you ask anyone on the team, we were pretty tapped out. With injuries, it put a lot on us, and everyone was dealing with something. We said, ‘We have to get it done, tonight.’
Eansor: We would reset after every game. That was our mindset the whole way through. Every game was just as important as the first and we wanted to win that game. No one wants to play a Game 7 with the championship on the line.
Ottenbreit: You never want to leave anything up to chance, if you have the chance you want to do it. We didn’t want them to have fresh air.
Strand: At that point, you’re exhausted and we were all exhausted. We just wanted to win it that night, just end it. There’s no point in going on.
The game was tight, and Regina scored in the third period to take a 3-1 lead late in the game. Seattle would score twice to tie and send the game to overtime.
Kolesar: It was remarkable. We went down two goals, and we were still thinking we had it. There was no panic on our bench. We were a confident group and felt like a team that could rise to any occasion.
Bear: To get the first one from Gropper who goes absolutely top cheese, we had them on their toes and when that happens, they start holding back. Sure enough, they get a penalty, and we took a timeout. This is it, let’s go, we’re not backing down. Kolesar takes that one-timer, and it magically goes in and I thought, ‘We’re not going to lose.’
Kolesar: I thought it went off Barzy and I was going to hug him. Lucky it hit someone’s skate and went in.
Eansor: We were really pumped and took one or two minutes to be satisfied, and as soon as that was over we reset. We had to win the game, nothing else mattered. Inch by inch, shift by shift, guys stepped up.
Strand: Once we got it to overtime, we knew the momentum was on our side.
Bear: In the room we were dialed in. No one was putting their head down, we were going. We didn’t have a lot of gas left; we played a lot of hockey. But it was time to empty the tanks.
Alexander True scores in overtime to vault the Thunderbirds to their first WHL Championship series win
It’s one of the biggest goals in Seattle hockey history and came in overtime. The play started with a set breakout behind the Thunderbirds net. Austin Strand had the puck and three passes later it was in the net and the Thunderbirds had won.
Strand: It’s a set play. It’s funny because we worked on that at the beginning of every practice. It was one of a couple different breakouts.
O’Dette: With any game, and playoffs especially, you never know which play might be the deciding play. Things you practice throughout the year can pay off. All those tedious, first play warmups, breakouts can pay off.
Strand: A couple weeks earlier I was talking to Oddie about the timing of it. True would come to the bottom circle near our net and get his speed going. I would get it to my D partner [Aaron] Hyman who got it to Keegs and by that time True would be at full speed.
O’Dette: If they take away your center you go D-to-D and hope your center can out-race the coverage and that’s what True did.
Kolesar: My line changed, and I was on the far side and had to stay on until it got in deep. If I changed, I didn’t know what would happen. I saw True coming, so I handed it off. When I saw him have a two-on-one I thought I could be the high guy.
Neuls: I was in the middle of the bench. I had a good angle, and I think even before he put it in the net, I had a foot over the boards.
Bear: I got off the ice just before that and my legs were cramping up, everyone was playing over 30 minutes. Everyone was starting to cramp up. I remember barely being able to jump the bench and it was one of the craziest moments of my life.
Eansor: I just remember gasping for air and then seeing we had a break and seeing he had all the time in the world to put it in and it was so slow. Just pure happiness after that, the coaches too, realizing what they did for us it was a special feeling.
O’Dette: I looked up and saw the bomb play happening and started getting excited when True had a step. I think I blacked out from there. It was mob scene.
Kolesar: I couldn’t have been more pumped. I had to take off my helmet first, I just wanted it to be off and not get choked. I ended up head butting True with his helmet on, and it hurt.
The Thunderbirds line up to await the Cup. (Photo Keith Hershmiller/Regina Pats)
Strand: I was on the ice. It was the end of my shift and I was going for a change and thought I’d go in. I just threw my gloves and ran in there; it was just hugs and screaming.
Ottenbreit: I was fully out of my gear and sitting in the training room for an hour and a half (after being kicked out of the game for a hit). When we won, I dressed as fast as I could. Last week when I watched the game it was the first time I saw the third period. I was underground when it all happened.
Strand: I was almost in tears when the Cup came out.
Eansor: To be honest I didn’t know what to do with the Cup. I didn’t know where to skate. I was bickering with Barzy during the ceremony thinking we should both lift it. He said, ‘You got it.’ It was kind of funny, it just shows he’s a great guy and good leader and he respected me. In my personal opinion it would have been great to share it with him.
Bear: I’ll never forget it. That’s something nobody will take away from you.
O’Dette: I came close as a player but lost in the finals twice in the American League. Being able to be part of a championship team as a coach it’s a different feeling but just as rewarding.
Kolesar: Those guys are my brothers, always will be. I tell everyone there won’t be a tighter group. Everything we went through that season.
Thunderbirds co-captain Scott Eansor was first to celebrate. (Keith Hershmiller/Regina Pats)
The NHL trade deadline is always a fun time for NHL fans. If our team is in the thick of the playoff picture, we hope it makes huge trades and pushes all our collective chips into the center of the table with hopes of playing for the Stanley Cup.
But is this the right approach? Do we want to mortgage the future in hopes of acquiring the top player from the TSN trade bait board? Does it even work?
Against my better judgement, I went back and reviewed the last five trade deadlines of the Stanley Cup Finalists in hopes of clarifying if going “all in” is the right approach to the trade deadline.
2016 trade deadline acquisitions
Stanley Cup champion
Justin Schultz was the primary acquisition at the trade deadline by the eventual 2016 Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins.
The only notable move the Pittsburgh Penguins completed around the trade deadline was the acquisition of Justin Schultz from the Edmonton Oilers for a third-round pick.
At the time, the move was not thought to be very significant, and Pittsburgh did not give up much to get him. Schultz drew into 15 of the 24 playoff games for the Penguins and averaged just 13 minutes of ice time in those games, the lowest time on ice across all Penguins defensemen.
While Schultz did not play a significant role in the Penguins 2016 playoff run, he played four more seasons with the Penguins and contributed significantly to their 2017 Stanley Cup Championship.
Stanley Cup runner-up
The San Jose Sharks did not make any significant moves at the trade deadline in 2016. The team swapped back-up goalies with the Toronto Maple Leafs (Alex Stalock for James Reimer).
In a separate trade with the Leafs, the Sharks acquired Roman Polak and Nick Spaling for a pair of second-round draft picks. Polak played in all 24 of the Sharks’ playoff games but did not register a point. One of those draft picks turned into Maxime Comtois, who is having himself a pretty good season currently.
Other notable trades from the 2016 NHL trade deadline
The New York Rangers swung for the fences and acquired Eric Staal from the Carolina Hurricanes for two second-round draft picks and the signing rights to Aleksi Saarela. The Rangers lost in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and although it is still early to assess the prospects that Carolina acquired in the trade, they have only played a collective nine NHL games since being traded to the Hurricanes organization.
2017 trade deadline acquisitions
Stanley Cup champion
The Pittsburgh Penguins added Ron Hainsey at the trade deadline for a second-round draft pick. Hainsey logged the second-most minutes on the Penguins during the Stanley Cup Playoffs and pitched in with eight points across the 25 Penguins playoff games.
Stanley Cup runner-up
The Nashville Predators did not add any players of significance at the trade deadline.
Other notable trades from the 2017 NHL trade deadline
Kevin Shattenkirk was a trade deadline acquisition by the Washington Capitals in 2017.
Kevin Shattenkirk was traded to the Washington Capitals with goaltender prospect Pheonix Copley for two prospects and two draft picks, a 2017 first-round and 2019 second-round pick. The St. Louis Blues defenseman was considered one of the prized targets of the trade deadline in 2017. Shattenkirk played fine for the Capitals in the playoffs, but Washington was eliminated by the Penguins in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Shattenkirk signed with the Rangers in the ensuing offseason.
The Minnesota Wild sent a prospect and three draft picks (first, second, and fourth-round picks) to Arizona for Martin Hanzal, Ryan White, and a fourth-round pick back to the WIld. Minnesota was eliminated in the first round and Hanzal posted one point in the five playoff games. White played three of the playoff games and has been bouncing around the AHL ever since.
2018 trade deadline acquisitions
Stanley Cup champion
Perhaps learning their lesson from the big swing they took on Shattenkirk a year earlier, the Washington Capitals only added Michal Kempny at the trade deadline from Chicago for a third-round pick.
Kempny played in all 24 Capitals playoff games and averaged about 17 minutes of ice time per game. He did not show up on the score sheet that often, but he was an important depth piece for the Caps championship run.
Stanley Cup runner-up
Tomas Tatar was a trade deadline acquisition by the Golden Knights in 2018 but would appear in less than 50% of the Golden Knights playoff games.
Flush with draft picks from the 2017 Expansion Draft, the Vegas Golden Knights took a big swing at the 2017 trade deadline on Tomas Tatar. The Detroit Red Wings received three draft picks: a first, second, and third-round pick from Vegas.
In retrospect, the Tatar trade was a disaster. Tatar was a healthy scratch through most of the playoffs, appearing in just eight of the Golden Knights’ 20 playoff games. He was packaged up with Nick Suzuki and another draft pick in the offseason in a trade with Montreal for Max Pacioretty.
Vegas also added Ryan Reaves in a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Although popular with the fans, Reaves only got into 10 playoff games and averaged only eight minutes.
Other notable trades from the 2018 NHL trade deadline
The Tampa Bay Lightning pulled off a big trade with the New York Rangers, acquiring Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller for Vladislav Namestnikov, Brett Howden, and Libor Hajek plus two draft picks (first and second-round picks).
Tampa advanced to a game seven in the Conference Finals against the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals. McDonagh and Miller both played a significant role in the Lightning’s playoff success that year. McDonagh logged the second-most minutes behind Victor Hedman while Miller chipped in eight points over the Lightning’s 17 playoff games.
The San Jose Sharks traded a prospect and two draft picks (a first and a fourth) for Evander Kane. The Sharks were eliminated in the second round of the playoffs and Kane had five points in the nine games he played. The Sharks re-signed Kane in the offseason and currently leads the team in goals scored since he joined the Sharks organization.
Winnipeg acquired Paul Stastny from the St. Louis Blues for a prospect and two draft picks (first and fourth-round). The Jets were eliminated by the Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Conference Finals. Stastny played very well for the Jets in the playoffs with 15 points in 17 games. He became a free agent in the offseason and signed with Vegas.
Rick Nash was traded to the Boston Bruins by the Rangers for Matt Beleskey, Ryan Spooner, signing rights to Ryan Lindgren, a first-round, and a seventh-round draft pick. The Bruins lost in the second round of the playoffs where Nash posted five points in 12 games, his final season in the NHL.
2019 trade deadline acquisitions
Stanley Cup champion
St. Louis Blues essentially did nothing at the trade deadline. They acquired Michael Del Zotto for a sixth-round draft pick. Del Zotto appeared in just seven regular-season games for the Blues and did not crack the lineup during their Stanley Cup Playoff run.
Stanley Cup runner-up
Boston Bruins added two significant pieces to their roster in Charlie Coyle and Marcus Johnsson. Coyle was acquired from the Minnesota Wild for prospect (at the time) Ryan Donato and a fourth-round draft pick. Johansson was acquired from the New Jersey Devils for a second and fourth-round draft pick.
Coyle and Johansson had 16 and 11 points respectively in the Bruins playoff run. At the time Coyle had one additional year on his contract and signed a six-year extension with Boston that started with the 2020-21 season. Johansson became an unrestricted free agent after the 2019 playoff run and signed with Buffalo.
Other notable trades from the 2019 NHL trade deadline
The Vegas Golden Knights acquired Mark Stone from the Ottawa Senators for Oscar Lindberg, Erik Brannstrom, and a second-round pick. Stone signed an eight-year extension with the Golden Knights shortly after joining the team during the 2018-19 regular season. Vegas eventually lost to the San Jose Sharks in the opening round of the playoffs and Stone accumulated 12 points in seven games. Stone also leads Vegas in points since being acquired in 2019.
Winnipeg acquired Kevin Hayes for Brendan Lemieux plus a first and fourth-round draft pick. Winnipeg was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs where Hayes had three points over six games. Hayes entered free agency in the offseason and signed with the Philadelphia Flyers.
2020 trade deadline acquisitions
Stanley Cup champion
The Tampa Bay Lightning acquired Barclay Goodrow and a third-round pick from the San Jose Sharks for Tampa Bay’s first-round pick of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft and prospect Anthony Greco. The Lightning also acquired Blake Coleman from the New Jersey Devils for prospect Nolan Foote and a first-round pick in 2020.
Both Coleman and Goodrow were considered modest trades when they happened but have been widely acknowledged as a significant reason why the Lightning won the Stanley Cup in 2020. Both of them logged about 18 minutes per game and were a major part of the team’s penalty kill in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Goodrow logged the most penalty kill time on the ice (70+ minutes) amongst forwards for Tampa during the playoffs while Coleman was third in penalty kill ice time (~60 minutes) amongst forwards.
Stanley Cup runner-up
The Dallas Stars made no material moves around the 2020 trade deadline.
Other notable trades from the 2020 NHL trade deadline
New York Islanders acquired Jean-Gabriel Pageau for a first-round and second-round pick from the Ottawa Senators. Pageau signed a six-year extension with the Islanders shortly after being traded and had eight goals in 22 games in the Islanders’ playoff run to the Conference Finals.
The Hurricanes did not have one big trade, but they made a series of moderate trades in acquiring Vincent Trocheck, Brady Skjei, and Sami Vatanen in three unique deals.
Trocheck was acquired from Florida for Erik Haula, Lucas Wallmark, and two prospects.
Skjei was acquired from the New York Rangers for a first-round draft pick.
Vatanen was acquired from New Jersey for two prospects and a third-round draft pick. One of those prospects was Janne Kuokkanen who is having a pretty good year in his first full NHL season with 20 points in 34 games.
None of them had much success in the playoffs but at the time of the trade, both Skjei and Trocheck had term remaining on their contracts and remain with the team this season. Trocheck is having one of the better seasons of his career.
Finally, the Golden Knights acquired their eventual playoff starting goalie, Robert Lehner, and also added a top-pairing defenseman in Alec Martinez with trades with the Chicago Blackhawks (with a little help from the Toronto Maple Leafs) and the Los Angeles Kings, respectively.
Lehner costed the Golden Knights Malcolm Subban, two draft picks, and a prospect.
Martinez was obtained with two second-round picks to LA.
Both Lehner and Martinez played well in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the Golden Knights before being eliminated in the Conference Final against the Western Conference champion Dallas Stars.
Is it worth it?
It is hard to reach a definitive conclusion on the right approach teams should take to the trade deadline based on our research of the prior five trade deadlines, but it is hard to find a team that went all in where it paid off. It can be debated that of the last five trade deadlines, the only team that went big during the NHL trade deadline that reached the Stanley Cup Final was the 2019 Boston Bruins.
Conversely, the 2016 New York Rangers, 2017 Washington Capitals, 2018 Tampa Bay Lightning, and 2019 Vegas Golden Knights went big at the trade deadline without material success in the subsequent Stanley Cup Playoffs.
What are your thoughts? Do you recall a time where a team took a big swing at the trade deadline that paid off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
When we last discussed the Seattle Thunderbirds 2017 Championship run, the team was finding a way to win during the second half of the season and get into the playoffs. They had overcome injuries and reeled in the Everett Silvertips, who had previously built up a lead in the U.S. Division race.
The two clubs would take turns on top of the standings down the stretch.
With a couple of short weeks before the playoffs, Seattle faced another blow. It was a Friday night game at the ShoWare Center against Everett, and just as the national anthem was starting, Mathew Barzal skated off the ice and did not return. He would miss the next month of the season.
Donovan Neuls: I remember that clear as day, against Everett. Everybody was cautious because the mumps were going around. He just skated off. Everyone was a really worried.
Keegan Kolesar: I remember someone told me Barzy isn’t going. My immediate reaction was ‘Are you kidding me? Good joke, the guy doesn’t miss a game, there’s no way he’s missing this one.’ He missed the last while there and the first round of playoffs. We were happy he was ok but in the moment that really sucked.
Ethan Bear: We didn’t know how long he’d be out for. We thought he had the mumps, and we would have other guys going out later on. With Barzy, he stayed away from everybody, but we knew he was doing what he could to get back. Whenever you see a top guy go down like that it’s scary.
Austin Strand: That was very strange. It was a big game, and it was weird because he warmed up and all of a sudden, he’s being waved off the ice. We were all looking around wondering.
Turner Ottenbreit: That was crazy. I think I was on the ice for the anthem and skating around. He didn’t make it to the anthem.
Scott Eansor: You need the big guys and you need them to be healthy and whenever one of those guys is not healthy it’s a concern.
Keegan Kolesar led the WHL in scoring during the 2017 WHL Playoffs (Brian Liesse photo)
The Thunderbirds would come up just short of the U.S. Division Title
With Barzal out with what would later be learned was mononucleosis and not the mumps, the Thunderbirds continued to fight with Everett for the U.S. Division lead. The Silvertips would edge out Seattle for the title by one point, despite the Thunderbirds winning two more games. It meant that the Thunderbirds would not be the top seed in the playoffs.
Kolesar: We wanted the division title for sure. We were a confident team and felt that there was not a team that could beat us. It’s unfortunate we couldn’t get it but at the end of the day we got the whole thing.
Bear: We knew we were the better team. Everett played that shutdown style and we knew that if we met in the playoffs, we were confident that we could beat them. I think them winning the division gave us extra motivation.
Strand: We all kind of knew what a special team we had. We weren’t too worried about the banner at that point.
Neuls: Looking back on it now, it doesn’t mean much being that we got the big one. To be honest I didn’t care about the division so maybe it was good they beat us out by a point.
Up first in the playoffs for the Seattle Thunderbirds were the Tri-City Americans
Not only did Seattle lose the Division title but a week before the playoffs, the Thunderbirds lost their goalie as well. Rylan Toth had come over from Red Deer in the offseason and won 36 games during the regular season. He got hurt, and Seattle turned to 16-year-old goalie Carl Stankowski to take over. The rookie had barely played during the regular season and now was the number one goalie heading into a first-round series with the Tri-City Americans.
Matt O’Dette: We were mindful he was a young guy. It doesn’t change a whole lot, but you want to dig in even more. That was probably the biggest adversity we faced, having your starter go down for the playoffs.
Bear: That was definitely another scare for us. As a player we knew how good a player Stankowski was. We let him be, he made the saves. He bailed us out more times than we helped him. It was definitely phenomenal what he did. Tother was there supporting him too.
Neuls: Going into the first game I think everyone was a little nervous. It didn’t take long to gain our confidence, he stopped like four or five breakaways and he didn’t let one in. For him to come in and play like he did was remarkable.
O’Dette: I think everybody in the building and on the bench, when we saw those breakaways there was a sigh of relief and feeling that Carl was up to the challenge. It gives me nightmares, those breakaways but that was a turning point.
Eansor: Everyone loved Carl, you couldn’t not. He was so innocent and nice and worked his ass off. It was really easy to stand behind him.
Strand: I was consistently shocked because he made massive saves. I thought he looked tiny back there, but he started making all the saves and we were confident.
With the rookie goalie standing tall, the Thunderbirds would sweep Tri-City in the opening round of the playoffs. Barzal and Ryan Gropp missed the series but Seattle didn’t miss a beat and dominated the Americans, including a blowout win in Kennewick.
Ottenbreit: They had some good players, so we weren’t too sure of what to expect. I think Donny [Donovan Neuls], Keegs [Keegan Kolesar], and [Alexander True] piled up points in that series.
Bear: That just shows you how deep our team was. I remember that last game we had three guys get five-point nights to seal the deal. A lot of us were joking [with Gropp and Barzal] we don’t want you guys to come back.
Neuls: I think everybody had a pretty good night that night. It was fun, happy we won.
Strand: I had never been on a playoff team that just swept right through a series. We got that longer rest to hang out and bond. We went to a Mariners game and then went into that Everett series.
The Thunderbirds had to rely on rookie goalie Carl Stankowski in 2017 (Brian Liesse)
After a first-round sweep, the Thunderbirds headed to Everett
The second round of the playoffs for the Thunderbirds would feature an anticipated matchup with the Everett Silvertips. Everett was the higher seed and opened at home. Seattle would get Barzal and Gropp back for Game 1 and set the tone when Barzal helped set up a late game-winning goal from Neuls.
Neuls: That was probably the biggest goal I had scored up until then.
Kolesar: We were pumped up, that’s the rivalry. I-9? I-5? I didn’t even know the highways when I was there. I was pumped, we took them out the year before, so we knew they were coming. I was really hyped.
Bear: We knew we were going to have to earn every inch in that rink. We dug down and gave everything we had in that series. They don’t give you much room in the D-Zone and it was challenging, plus they had Carter Hart.
Eansor: We always battled with Everett. It was always a hard, hard series. Despite the sweep it’s the hardest team to play in all of hockey that I’ve ever played. It takes a lot out of you to play them.
Ottenbreit: It’s always fun playing those guys. We hated them and I’m sure they hated us. Everett and Seattle are never going to like each other.
Kolesar: They were a tough team, and they weren’t going away at any point in that series. It was annoying, we would get a lead and they’d come back, and it was ‘Come on, just give up.’ It just makes it more fun when it’s a rivalry.
Bear: The way it all turned out it was one of the most fun series I’ve played.
Neuls: I think any time you can beat Everett, any time, you’re pretty excited.
In Part 3 of the Oral History of the Seattle Thunderbirds 2017 Championship, we’ll look at the Western Conference finals, another huge set back, the Regina Pats, and the big trophy.
We knew this Western Hockey League season was going to be different. There were several target start dates that came and went without a single puck being dropped. Slowly but surely the WHL worked with local government entities in each province and state to come up with a plan to salvage something resembling a season. When everything was said and done, all teams targeted a 24-game intra-divisional schedule with no fans and no playoffs. The phrase we heard over and over from teams leading up to this shortened season was “player development.” For this week’s Data Dump Saturday, I am going to dig into how WHL teams are approaching development based on age, specifically focusing on their usage of 16-year-old players.
WHL eligibility rules are a bit complicated, but for the purposes of this analysis, you can assume that 16-year-olds are the youngest players eligible to play in the WHL.
Number of 16-year-olds
Comparing this season to any prior season is challenging. Let us first focus on the actual number of 16-year-olds playing in the league. In a normal season, general managers and coaches will play 16-year-olds, but if they keep players that age on their roster, they are mandated to play them in at least 40 games. If the team feels a 16-year-old rookie is not developed enough for that number of games, the player will be sent down to a lower-level club prior to the start of the season.
Outside of the top prospects, most 16-year-olds that do stay end up with limited ice time during games as they get acclimated to the league, getting deployed in favorable matchups or playing on bottom lines. This season is unique due to the emphasis on development, so many teams chose not to carry a full complement of over-aged 20-year-olds or imports, opening up ice time for younger players. To come up with a fair comparison season over season I have identified the number of 16-year-olds that have played in over 50% of their team’s games.
As you can see already, this season has the most 16’s playing in the last 10 years of the WHL, with 58 players that have participated in over 50% of their team’s games.
Here is a look at it by WHL team.
It’s interesting to note the range of how these teams are using their 16-year-olds. Victoria seems to be playing a lot of 16’s with six in its lineup, while Red Deer only has one being used on a regular basis.
A proxy for time on ice
Counting the number of 16-year-old players getting into games only tells part of the story. Actual playing time is an important data point to determine how much experience they are getting. Unfortunately, the common time on ice statistic is not available on the WHL’s stats page.
As a proxy, I am going to use average shots on goal per game in lieu of time on ice. It is not perfect, but the logic is the more ice time you get, the more shots on goal you have. Spread over the whole league, this at least gives us an idea of how much 16-year-olds are playing compared to other seasons.
If we assume shots on goal as a proxy for ice time, it appears that the average shots on goal is flat over the last four WHL seasons and therefore there is no change in ice time for players this age. This surprised me a bit since the Seattle Thunderbirds have three 16-year-olds that appear to be getting a lot of playing time.
To prove (or disprove) that gut feeling, I isolated the Seattle Thunderbirds to see if this is correct.
In this case, the data confirms what I believed based on the eyeball test.
Of course, there could be various reasons for this increase in Seattle, but they all bode well for the future if this group of 16’s is being given plenty of opportunities and generating this type of production.
Here is a look at how this group compares with 16-year-olds in previous seasons:
How this group of 16-year-olds develops based on this deployment will be interesting to monitor. With more usage of players at this this age, will we see faster development in the WHL?
If you have any thoughts or questions, feel free to drop me a line in the comments section or on twitter.
