The Western Hockey League had a strong showing at this week’s NHL Draft with 28 players selected. It was the second most – falling short of the OHL’s 35 picks – for all development leagues in the world. Locally, the U.S. Division had each of its five teams see a player selected.
Leading the way was the Seattle Thunderbirds who had four players that played on their roster drafted plus a player in Brad Lambert who they own the CHL rights to. All of the U.S. Division players selected project to be back with their junior teams this coming season which makes for an exciting time amongst local hockey fans.
The Thunderbirds are coming off a season that saw them run to the WHL Championship Series against Edmonton, and it should be no surprise that they had the most players selected, two of whom went in the first round.
“I feel great for the kids, I’m so proud of them and happy for them,” Thunderbirds general manager Bil La Forge said from Montreal. “I’m happy for the coaching staff. They put in a ton of work getting these guys where they need to be. So, it’s an exciting day for the whole organization.”
Having players drafted is a big deal for a junior team. As they draft and recruit players to choose their team and the WHL, it helps to be able to show that your program develops players that the NHL wants.
For Seattle, they now have a bevy of drafted players and appear to have a strong team heading into next season.
“I think we’re a destination city now, it’s a great place to play,” La Forge said. “Great ownership, and the coaching is so good. They’re coming here. I think we’ve had 12 or 13 guys drafted in the last three or four years. So that just shows that we’re a viable option for your development. It definitely helps us with the recruiting.”
Here is a look at the U.S. Division players drafted at the 2022 NHL Entry Draft.
Seattle Thunderbirds
Kevin Korchinski, D, 7th overall, Chicago Blackhawks
Seattle was on the board early when the Blackhawks selected the high-flying defenseman. Korchinski rose up the draft boards this year and was projected to go anywhere in the top 15. He was spectacular for the Thunderbirds in the playoffs and that helped his stock rise.
Korchinski had 61 assists in 67 games this year which is a big number.
“We had a pre-draft tool going and I think both [head coach Matt O’Dette] and I had him at number seven, Chicago,” La Forge said. “We thought anything after five was a possibility.”
Schaefer is a big power forward, and he played well in the Championship Series in Edmonton against the Edmonton Oil Kings. Interestingly, those Oil Kings are owned by the Edmonton Oilers, Schaefer’s future team.
Originally an eighth-round pick in the WHL Draft who failed to score a goal during the COVID-shortened season in 2021, Schaefer exploded for 32 goals this past year. He went from eighth-round bantam pick to first-round NHL pick.
“He’s another guy that just works so hard,” La Forge said. “Just with his development and what he needs to do to get to the next level, I thought that our coaches did a great job with him and Reid put in a ton of work.”
Jordan Gustafson, C, 79th pick overall, Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is no stranger to the Thunderbirds program, as former Seattle players Shea Theodore and Keegan Kolesar both play for the Golden Knights. Now they add an all-around player in Gustafson who can score, play all over the ice, and has the trust of his coaches.
“Smartest guy on the ice every time he’s out there,” La Forge said of Gustafson. “He’s a coach’s security blanket, you always want him out there. Five on three for us, five on three for them. There’s no situation that he can’t handle, and Vegas taking him where it traded a pick to get him there, I thought it was a good move.”
Jared Davidson, C, 130th overall, Montreal Canadiens
Perhaps the best story of all the Thunderbirds drafted, Davidson was not drafted in the WHL. He was a camp invite by Seattle and worked his way into a top center who scored 42 times last year. Davidson was passed over twice before by the NHL, but players develop at different paces, and Davidson has worked himself into a good position.
He’s 20 next year and Montreal could choose to send him to the American Hockey League.
“He’s one of my favorite people. He’s a kid I talk to every single day during the season and bug him a lot,” La Forge said. “He just outworks any issue that his game has had. He’s a special kid, and if Montreal keeps him in the American League next year, I’ll be the first guy to jump up and down with excitement for him, but if they send them back, I’ll be pretty excited as well.”
Brad Lambert, C, 30th overall, Winnipeg Jets
Lambert, who is from Finland, has yet to play a second of hockey for Seattle, but the Thunderbirds own his rights, and there is speculation that he’ll sign to play in the WHL for next year. Once considered the top prospect in the draft, he slipped after some non-productive years playing pro hockey overseas. Scouts who watch him say the skill is still there, though.
“We wish him all the best in trying to make the Winnipeg Jets or the [AHL] Manitoba Moose,” La Forge said. “We’ll be really excited if they ask us to help in his development, and we think we’d be a great fit for him.”
Everett Silvertips
Ben Hammerling, RW, 177th overall, Vegas Golden Knights
Hammerling broke out for the Silvertips this year. After seven points as a rookie he jumped to 47 last season as Everett raced out to another U.S. Division title. He’ll be back with the Tips after appearing in the Vegas prospect camps and will be a key player as they look to repeat their division title.
Ben Hemmerling, weaving magic worthy of The Strip.
— Everett Silvertips (@WHLsilvertips) July 8, 2022
Ryan Hofer, 181th overall, Washington Capitals
It feels like every season, the Silvertips get a big year from a guy that flew under the radar the prior season. Hofer was one of those players this past year as he blew up from six goals to 25 this past year. How many will he score this next season?
Spokane Chiefs
Mason Beaupit, G, 108th overall, Spokane Chiefs
Beaupit’s numbers are not pretty, but NHL scouts look beyond statistics when judging talent. Playing behind a young team that took it in the teeth most nights, Beaupit played well. He really jumped out at the CHL Top Prospect game and made an impression.
Graham Sward, F, 146th overall, Nashville Predators
Like Beaupit, Sward was a good player on a struggling team. He has good size and has shown that he can play, picking up 43 points in 57 games. Will Spokane keep him next year, or strengthen their rebuild by scoring prospects in a Sward trade?
Portland Winterhawks
Marek Alscher, D, 93rd overall, Florida Panthers
Alscher got better as the season wore on, as he got used to the North American game. By the end of the season the import from Czechia was in Portland’s top defensive pairings. He ended the year with 16 points.
Tri-City Americans
Parker Bell, F, 155th overall, Calgary Flames
Bell is another player who managed to flourish on a rebuilding team that suffered some growing pains through the season. He scored 18 times to go with 31 assists to be the Americans second leading scorer. As Tri-City builds its roster they’ll have Bell as a centerpiece for at least another year.
Welcome to the NHL Draft Day 2 liveblog! We are writing this in chronological order, with the most recent happenings at the top. So, scroll to the bottom to see Seattle’s first pick of the day, then work your way up.
Enjoy!
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Here is a list of all Seattle Kraken selections:
DRAFT OVER – ROUND 7 Complete
11:09 AM KRAKEN PICK #196 overall: Center Kyle Jackson, also from the North Bay Battalion. Jackson is teammates with Ty Nelson, the No. 68 pick of the Kraken. Jackson had 30 goals and 32 assists in 45 games this season.
ROUND 6 Complete
10:37 AM KRAKEN PICK #164 overall: Center Barrett Hall from Minnesota high school player, headed to St. Cloud State University in a few years. Here is a video from six years ago.
ROUND 5 Complete
Seattle Kraken did not have any fifth-round selections.
ROUND 4 Complete
10:00 AM: We have an action shot of third-round selection Ty Nelson.
9:58 AM KRAKEN PICK #123 overall: Forward Tucker Robertson from the Peterborough Petes. He is an overager that had 81 points in 68 games last season.
9:28 AM KRAKEN PICK #100 overall: Defenseman Tyson Jugnauth from the West Kelowna Warriors of the BCHL. He is committed to Wisconsin. That’s two picks in a row with ties to the West Kelowna Warriors.
ROUND 3 Complete
9:18 AM KRAKEN PICK #91 overall: Center Ben MacDonald from US Prep School Noble and Greenough School in Massachusetts. MacDonald is headed to the BCHL next year to play for the West Kelowna Warriors and committed to Harvard for the 2023-24 season.
9:17 AM ****KRAKEN TRADE****
#SeaKraken trade 117 and 132 to BOS for No. 91. Pick-for-pick trade!
8:41 AM – KRAKEN PICK #61 overall: Center David Goyette from the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL. Goyette had 33 goals and 40 assists in 66 games last season.
8:38 AM – KRAKEN PICK #58 overall: Goalie Niklas Kokko from Karpat of the Finnish U20 league. Kokko played 29 games with a 2.06 GAA and a .914 save percentage. He is expected to play in Liiga next year for the senior Karpat team.
8:30 AM – KRAKEN PICK #49 overall: Jani Nyman from the Finnish U20 league.
8:18 AM – KRAKEN PICK #35 overall: Right winger Jagger Firkus from the Moose Jaw Warriors. He had 36 goals and 44 assists (80 points) in 66 WHL games. Jagger was ranked #26 on our big board. Nice value pick, and this kid is a beauty in a lot of ways. He’s known for his big shot, and had first-round value.
8:00 AM – Here we go. Day two of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft. We will be following along here to keep you up to speed on the events. The Kraken have a lot of picks today. They will come fast and furious.
We were surprised but not shocked to hear Juraj Slafkovsky’s name get announced Thursday as the first overall pick in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft. We were more surprised, but—based on organizational needs—still not shocked to also see the New Jersey Devils pass over the player that was widely expected to be the top pick, instead selecting defenseman Simon Nemec. But did we think Shane Wright would still be available to the Seattle Kraken when they went on the clock with the No. 4 overall pick? Absolutely not.
Before Thursday, never in our wildest dreams did we expect to see Wright donning a Kraken jersey. And yet, somehow, by some stroke of incredible luck, that’s what happened. The superstar center from the Kingston Frontenacs—who has 160 points in 121 career OHL games, was granted “exceptional status” to move up to the major junior ranks at age 15, and notched 14 points in just five games for Team Canada at the 2021 IIHF U18 World Championship—is the newest member of the Seattle Kraken.
How did Shane Wright drop to the Kraken?
“Christmas came early,” director of amateur scouting Robert Kron quipped. “You have a player that two years ago was talked about as a slam dunk, and I don’t think he’s changed that much, so we’re very excited to have him.”
Everything had to break right (Wright?) for the Kraken to end up with Wright, who landed at No. 1 on the Sound Of Hockey Composite Big Board.
Here’s how we think it shook out this way. Slafkovsky had recently gained some traction as potentially taking the top slot, so that’s an understandable pick by the Habs. Then, we figure Nemec at right defense was a better choice for the Devils, who are already stacked with young centers in Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer, and Pavel Zacha. Why did the Arizona Coyotes choose Logan Cooley over Wright? The explanation we came up with is that Cooley could have higher upside, simply because he’s physically less developed than Wright, and the Coyotes are far from being in “win now” mode. So, from their perspective, there was no need to take the player most ready for the NHL, and they instead opted for the guy who could become a star in a few years.
Either Cooley or Wright would have been great picks for the Kraken, but Wright seems to be an even bigger steal. Whether Montreal, New Jersey, and Arizona regret passing on such a touted prospect like Wright remains to be seen, but for the Kraken, this feels like an enormous win.
Wright joins Matty Beniers as a second elite, young centerman in the Seattle organization, and together, it’s easy to envision a spectacular one-two punch anchoring the team’s top six for many years to come.
“Not a bad way to start a franchise, with Matty Beniers and Shane Wright as your one-two centermen,” general manager Ron Francis said. “So it’s good for the Kraken, and we’re excited about it.”
Not bad at all, Ron. Not. Bad. At. All.
Trades add to Draft Day tension
Just as the Kraken were about to go on the clock, and just as it was revealed that Seattle would have a crack at Wright, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman, accepting yet another onslaught of relentless boos from the Montreal crowd, announced that two trades had been consummated. Kraken fans everywhere held their collective breath, as Bettman shared that the host Canadiens had acquired Kirby Dach from the Blackhawks and sent Alexander Romanov to the Islanders.
Thankfully, the trades did not involve Seattle. Of course there was still a chance the team could galaxy brain its pick and also pass on Wright. But to the credit of Francis, Kron, and staff, the Kraken didn’t overthink things and snagged perhaps the best all-around player in the draft.
A local flair to the opening round of the NHL Entry Draft
The trades of Dach and Romanov came on the heels of an earlier blockbuster that sent Alex DeBrincat from Chicago to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for the Nos. 7 and 39 picks, as well as a third-rounder in 2024. Between DeBrincat and Dach, that’s two terrible deals for the Blackhawks in one day, and frankly, we have no idea what that franchise is doing right now. Perhaps they’re getting a jump on the 2023 Connor Bedard sweepstakes? We digress.
Interestingly, that No. 7 pick ended up being used on Seattle Thunderbirds defenseman Kevin Korchinski. Korchinski played a huge role in Seattle’s run to the WHL Championship Series. He’s a smooth-skating puck mover that landed at No. 13 on the SOH Composite Big Board. Our own Andy Eide profiled Korchinski back in March, so give that a read if you want to learn more about the touted local prospect, who should be back at accesso ShoWare Center with a stacked Thunderbirds team next season.
Speaking of that stacked team, Finnish-Canadian forward Brad Lambert, whose CHL rights were recently acquired by the Thunderbirds in a trade with the Saskatoon Blades, dropped all the way to No. 30, where he was plucked by the Winnipeg Jets. Lambert is offensively gifted and at one time had been ranked much higher on draft boards, but his stock slipped after limited production this season in Finland’s Liiga.
Another Thunderbird, Reid Schaefer, snuck into the first round, getting selected No. 32 overall by the Edmonton Oilers. He was also profiled by Andy in May.
So, for those of you counting at home, that’s potentially three first-round picks that could suit up for the T-Birds next season.
Moments of levity
As always at a live NHL Entry Draft, there were a few comical moments Thursday.
First, how about Maveric Lamoureux’s parents getting after it?
After he was selected No. 30 overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning, Howard told ESPN’s Emily Kaplan that he dressed that way because he’s the best looking player in the draft.
And finally, we do have to call out Morgan Geekie’s younger brother, Conor, who got snapped up by the Coyotes at No. 11. The younger Geekie nearly tumbled head over heels en route to the stage, but showed impressive balance and managed to regain his footing in the nick of time.
The Kraken still have 11 picks left to make Friday, including up to four in the second round, barring trades. There are lots of great players left out there, as highlighted here by our good friend, Chris Peters.
My best available heading into Day 2: 15. Jagger Firkus 21. Lane Hutson 22. Ryan Chesley 31. Luca Del Bel Belluz 33. Mattias Havelid 35. Owen Beck 36. Jack Hughes 37. Seamus Casey 38. Danny Zhilkin 40. Tristan Luneau
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
General manager Ron Francis has made it clear that the goal of the Seattle Kraken is to make the playoffs in 2022-23, which might seem like a stretch goal coming from a team that just finished fourth from last place in the NHL standings. The team will need to be aggressive this offseason to even be taken seriously in its quest to contend.
To explore what it will take to get into contention next year, we will be putting together a three-part series on how that could happen. The scenarios presented will be full of assumptions with imperfect data and incomplete analysis, but at its core, this will be a thought exercise that will help evaluate the offseason moves needed to make the Kraken a potential playoff team.
Evaluating the gap
The NHL’s point system, with one point awarded for overtime and shootout losses, makes things a little complicated, but effectively, teams must win more than they lose to make the playoffs. To do that, they need to score more goals than their opponents. Therefore, we will be using goals as our primary metric here, rather than standings points.
One challenge to consider when using goals, in NHL team statistics, a shootout win or loss will add a goal for or against respectively. Along with empty-net goals, these would overstate or understate a team’s goals with respect to this analysis, so keep that in mind. We were able to adjust the totals to remove empty-net and shootout goals, but those bonus goals awarded for shootout wins will remain.
To set the stage, let us look at the last 10 full seasons’ adjusted goals for and adjusted goals against to see how teams fared.
In the chart, the diagonal line represents when the goals for equals the goals against. This would be a goal differential (goals for minus goals against) of zero. If the team’s goal differential is positive (above the line), then the team has good chance of making the playoffs.
The picture is clearer if we just focus on the teams that qualify for the playoffs and those that do not, based on goal differential “buckets.”
Based on the data, a negative five goal differential is where teams have roughly a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs.
Kraken goal differential gap for contending in 2022-23
During the 2021-22 season the Kraken had a negative 59 adjusted goal differential. Assuming the negative five goal differential is the target for putting themselves in a solid position to qualify for the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, then they will need to eliminate a 54-goal gap. There are many ways this can be accomplished, but for this exercise we are going to keep it simple and focus on goaltending and goal scoring.
Goaltending must be better
According to Evolving-Hockey.com, the Kraken goaltending had a “Goals Saved Above Expected” (GSAx) of negative 41.3.
The math behind these numbers can be a bit complicated, but let’s put it in simple terms: If the Kraken received just average goaltending from their goaltenders, they would have allowed 41 fewer goals in the 2021-22 season. Expecting exeptional goaltending next season might be wishful thinking, but the goaltending tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger gave us reason for optimism by both playing their best hockey of the season down the stretch.
Expecting a major improvement to goaltending took a hit when the team announced that Driedger underwent surgery for a torn ACL with an expected timeline to return of seven-to-nine months. For now, we are going to assume a reasonable 10 GSAx improvement to next year’s goaltending.
Part two
This gives you the framework of the analysis that we intend to do here. In the next installment in the series, we will focus on goal scoring projections for the current Seattle Kraken players and where the team might be able to add personnel to address gaps in becoming a contender.
For the 2021-22 season, USA Hockey player membership has increased 20 percent nationwide over the 2020-21 season. According to the recently released numbers from USA Hockey, there were 93,603 player memberships added over the 2021-22 season increasing the total to 547,429. Recovery from the pandemic-impacted season is in full swing, but the overall numbers have not returned to their pre-pandemic levels where player memberships were 561,700 for 2019-20. Of the 52 territories in the report, 23 of them are exceeding their 2019-20 player membership numbers.
Here is a deep dive into some of the insights in the report.
USA Hockey memberships – the biggest increase
The biggest gainers in memberships were also the hardest hit during the pandemic season. California, Michigan, and New York saw the biggest rebound in memberships this season. California added 16,113 this year after losing 20,769 from 2019-20 to 2020-21 season.
It’s awesome to see Washington State add the fifth most members this season with an additional 4,610 memberships. In terms of percentage increase, Washington added the second most players.
USA Hockey breakdown by age groups
When we slice the data by age groups we can see the most robust recovery is coming from the adult hockey space (19+), but the second biggest increase is from the ‘Six and Under’ age group.
Washington State by the numbers
If we just filter on Washington State, we can see where the growth is coming from locally.
The biggest net additions is coming from the adult levels. There are two main reasons for this:
Recovery. Several leagues had significant shut downs during the 2020-21 season, so as these leagues started to come back, so would the players. Several of the leagues did not come back online until spring of 2021 as COVID-19 vaccines started to become available. These leagues were slow to ramp up and in most cases did not hit their stride until late spring/early summer when new memberships were classified for the 2021-22 season.
Kraken Adult Learn To Play. Adult learn-to-play programs are not new to the greater Seattle area, but the Kraken ran their programs all year and had multiple programs going each week. This meant their capacity per class was significantly higher than other programs.
On the youth hockey front, the biggest growth came from players 10 and under. Again, this is another indication of the Kraken’s influence and commitment to grow the game in the region. Part of this is a function of the NHL Learn to Play program that, up until this year, was not available to people in this part of the country.
Local organizations do not share their individual membership totals, but it is a safe assumption that the growth was not strictly from the Kraken youth hockey programs. The Kraken will get a lot of credit for the growth, but there are about a dozen associations in or near Seattle that continue to support learn-to-play programs of their own.
Washington State outlook
After the launch of the Vegas Golden Knights during the 2017-18 season, Nevada saw a huge spike in player memberships, but that did not happen until the following season.
However, it is unrealistic to expect the kind of explosive growth Nevada saw for a couple reasons. First, the Golden Knights had a magical inaugural season that ended with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final. That injected a new hockey market with excitement and enthusiasm that would propel kids and adults to try the sport out for themselves. The Kraken did expose the sport to many new families, which will inspire people to try it out next season, but a playoff run would have invigorated the fan base even more. Such a run likely would have led to a more massive increase in membership rates for Washington State.
Additionally, Nevada had a very low number of USA Hockey player memberships before the Golden Knights joined the league, enabling that region to grow its numbers at an unprecedented rate. To put it in a business perspective, Nevada had an untapped customer base. Washington State, on the other hand, had a significant number of hockey players in the area before the Kraken arrived.
There is little doubt that we will continue to see an increase in participation in Washington State, as the Kraken continue to grow the sport directly with “Try Hockey For Free” events and focused programming. But there will also be an organic impact, as the team improves on the ice, that will excite more and more families to take up hockey.
If you have any questions about the data or the analysis, please drop us a line on twitter or in the comments section.
For Seattle hockey fans, things haven’t gone their way recently. The Seattle Thunderbirds are now down 3-1 in the WHL Championship Series after losing two straight at home this week to the Edmonton Oil Kings, and Kraken goalie Chris Driedger tore his ACL playing in the IIHF World Championship.
On this episode, the Sound Of Hockey Podcast breaks down those WHL games and discusses what options the Kraken have to backfill Driedger’s position.
