The 3-2 Kraken loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday unfolded largely as expected. It marked the Kraken’s first game after the All-Star break and bye week, while the Flyers were playing their third game since their break. Although the shot count might tell a different story, Seattle hung in there and battled, but to no avail. With a challenging February schedule ahead, the Kraken will need to figure out how to steal some of these games if they are going to have any chance at playing meaningful games in March.
“What’s up with Matty?”
We received a question on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast mailbag last week asking, “What’s up with Matty?” In case you haven’t been paying attention, Matty Beniers has just six goals in his first 46 games played this season versus 17 goals in his first 46 games played last season. I did not have too much to offer to the conversation other than it seems like there have been stretches where he has been afraid to shoot.
That is a common media narrative that gets thrown around when players are going through slumps, though. Can we test my theory? Welcome to my Sunday project. (Coincidentally, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic also put out a “deep dive” article on Beniers Monday, but theirs focused on his defensive prowess. It’s an interesting article, so give that a read in addition to the below to get the full scope of the state of Matty’s game.)
First, I looked at Beniers’ shots per game and shot attempts per game. If my theory is accurate, the numbers would show a year-over-year decline.
Ok, it looks like there may be something to my theory. There is a decline, but the .18 decrease in shots per game is only a reduction of 10 percent compared to last season, whereas the drop of 11 goals per game from 17 at this point last season is a reduction of 65 percent. Are shots the best proxy for a player’s willingness to shoot? Probably not.
To increase the sample size, I looked at Matty’s shot attempts per game compared to last season. For those that might not know, shot attempts include shots on net, missed shots, and shots that get blocked.
Wait a second, that shows an increase in shooting season over season. This increase is a little misleading, though, because Beniers is averaging roughly 40 more seconds of ice time per game this season and therefore has more time to get shot attempts. If we account for extra time on ice, the shot attempt rate is roughly the same compared to last season. Still, my theory of Beniers being afraid to shoot at times suddenly isn’t standing up.
I went further down the rabbit hole, and over to NaturalStatTrick.com, looking into the rate of high-danger chances Matty has generated this season compared to last.
I then looked at his shot attempts on a map (minus blocked shots) to see if there was anything that stood out season over season.
There isn’t a huge difference season over season, other than a few more shots from farther out in 2022-23. Let’s see how his shot attempts look in man-advantage scenarios.
When you isolate the power-play shot attempts (minus blocked shots), you can see that Beniers has taken almost all his shots to the goalies right this season, as opposed to shooting almost exclusively from the goalie’s left last season. I don’t think this is a contributing factor in Matty’s lower production this season (it’s really just how he’s being deployed on the power play), but I did find it interesting so thought I would share.
After all that, I still did not reach a firm conclusion as to what is impacting Matty’s production this season. He is still very young at just 21 years old and has plenty of room to develop, so I am not overly concerned about his drop in production in this sophomore season.
Like many of his teammates, he started the season cold. For a while, he looked like he was returning to form before an injury took him out of the lineup for five games. He might also be feeling pressure with higher expectations being thrust upon him and knowing that he is up for a new contract this summer. It was one game, but he looked good on Saturday night, and although he did not get a point on the play, he contributed to the first goal in multiple ways.
Other Musings
The Kraken have 52 points in 51 games. There have been 25 teams since the 2005-06 season that had 52 points at the 51-game mark, and only four of those 25 made the playoffs.
I couldn’t remember the last time I’ve seen an unsuccessful offside coach’s challenge, so when Flyers coach John Tortorella contested Tomas Tatar’s goal on Saturday night, I mentally took the Kraken goal off the board. I was pleasantly surprised when Tortorella’s challenge failed. Scott Malone of ROOT Sports tweeted that it’s the first time an offside challenge has ever failed in a Kraken game.
Andre Burakovsky had five of his shot attempts blocked on Saturday night. He leads the current Kraken forwards with 41 percent of his shot attempts being blocked. I honestly don’t how to interpret that stat, but I was frustrated with his shot selection that night, so I looked it up.
When healthy, I think Burakovsky is an awesome player, but he looks nowhere close to what he showed at the beginning of last season. He has never had a season with a shooting percentage under 10 percent. His current shooting percentage this season is a paltry 3.6.
Chris Driedger posted his third shutout of the season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds on Saturday. It is unlikely, but I wonder if a team would consider trading for him as a potential second or third goalie for a playoff run.
I think Carson Rehkopf is becoming the Kraken’s top prospect and has potential to play in the NHL next season. He had three more goals this past weekend over two games and now has 40 on the season. Meanwhile, Jagger Firkus set a Moose Jaw Warriors record with points in 24 consecutive games.
David Goyette (SDB) – The Kraken prospect had three goals and six assists in his last three games for the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL. He shares the top spot for points this season in the OHL.
Andrei Loshko (ROU) – A Kraken fourth-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had a hat trick and two assists for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in a 11-0 win on Thursday night.
Logan Morrison (CVF) – The undrafted free agent signing by the Seattle Kraken had two goals in the Coachella Valley Firebirds’ only game this week. Morrison is having a solid first pro season with 10 goals and 21 assists in 45 games with the Firebirds.
Chart of the Week
After last year’s second-in-the-league 11.6 team shooting percentage, we expected a bit of a regression for the Kraken in 2023-24… but maybe not quite like this:
Goal of the Week
Barrett Hall was a Seattle Kraken sixth-round selection in the 2022 NHL Draft and currently plays for the St. Cloud State Huskies (Piper Shaw and Will Borgen’s alma matter).
The Kraken battled back to put themselves in a position to compete for a playoff spot, but they are headed in the opposite direction compared to some of the teams competing for the same wild card positions. Calgary, Minnesota, St. Louis, Nashville, and Los Angeles are a collective 8-0-0 since the All-Star break.
The next three games for the Kraken pose a challenge. They face the Devils Monday, Islanders Tuesday, and the Bruins on Thursday. The Devils and Islanders are fighting for the playoffs and will be coming in desperate, while the Bruins are one of the top teams in the league. Points will be hard to come by in these games, but if the Kraken take anything under three points, we can all but write off a shot at the playoffs. This might be the do-or-die week for the Kraken.
As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any thoughts or questions, please let us know in the comments section.
It’s easy to pin a loss like the one the Seattle Kraken took Saturday on rust, with the Philadelphia Flyers looking sharper and more structured throughout. But now that Seattle is finally back from its long break, the time is nigh to start racking up points.
Sure, there are still 32 31 games remaining in the season, but general manager Ron Francis is down to 11 contests before he will need to make his final decisions on whether this team is a trade deadline seller. Every loss at this point pushes Francis and his staff closer to that end of the “stand pat or sell” seesaw.
Seattle didn’t get an easy draw for its first game back, facing a good Flyers team that had jumped out to two impressive wins over Florida and Winnipeg since returning to action on Tuesday. Still, this game felt significant for the Kraken, who needed to get off on the right tentacle. Instead, they stumbled out of the break and missed another opportunity at valuable points.
Here are our Three Takeaways from an uninspiring 3-2 Kraken loss to the Flyers.
Takeaway #1: A rotten night for the power play
Not only did the Seattle power play fail to score in three opportunities on this night, it also gave up a short-handed goal at an ill-chosen moment. Tomas Tatar had just tied the game 1-1 at 17:09 of the first period, taking a pass from Vince Dunn in the slot, turning and wristing it through Cal Petersen.
Replay showed that when Seattle entered the zone, Tatar—at that point not involved in the play and crossing the blue line on the opposite side of the ice from the puck—was within an eye-lash length of being offside. Flyers coach John Tortorella challenged and lost, earning his team a delay-of-game penalty.
This should have been the big turning point in the game for Seattle, but the opposite happened. Chasing the puck in the offensive zone, the Kraken got too aggressive and left only Dunn back to defend after Garnet Hathaway pitched it down the ice. Ryan Poehling got to the puck first, drifted toward Joey Daccord, and fired it through the wickets to regain a 2-1 lead.
The Kraken PK was ok in this one, allowing the game’s opening goal but also getting some important kills. But it was also forced into action at problematic points in the third period. Will Borgen launched a puck over the glass at 5:39 of the third, just nine seconds after Sean Couturier’s eventual winning goal, and Jamie Oleksiak hauled down Travis Konecny at 9:10.
Philadelphia didn’t score on either of those chances, but those penalties cost the Kraken four precious minutes at a point in the game when they could not afford to be down a man.
Takeaway #2: Face-offs do matter sometimes
There have been some healthy debates around the Sound Of Hockey community in the last month about whether face-offs matter. Our best friend, Alison Lukan, eventually convinced John Barr that face-offs, in fact, do not matter. Speaking about the face-off percentage statistic, that is likely true. The team that wins more face-offs doesn’t necessarily win the game, and one could argue it really has no bearing on the outcome.
HOWEVER… And this is where the trusty eye-ball test comes into play…
There are moments in a game where you look at the situation and think, Man, these guys need a face-off win here. Every time we thought that on Saturday, the Kraken lost the draw, with a few key losses coming in the waning minutes of the game when Daccord was off for an extra skater.
And then, of course, there’s the case of the game-winning goal. With 14:32 left in a tie game, Matty Beniers lost a defensive-zone draw to Couturier, who pulled it straight back to Konecny. Konecny nudged it to Travis Sanheim, who blasted it toward the net for Courturier, who was able to get a piece of it and deflect it by Daccord.
The Kraken could have used a face-off win there, too.
Takeaway #3: TWO LOUSY SHOTS?!
No issue in this game was more glaring than how ineffective Seattle was at getting pucks through to Petersen. The team got worse at this as the game went along, and Tortorella’s well-coached skaters clogged up shooting lanes and built a bunker around their goalie.
But what we’re about to tell you is jarring. Jared McCann scored 36 seconds into the third period, getting a good bounce off a Philadelphia defender. He also took Seattle’s next and only other shot on goal, 19:04 later. Two shots by McCann in the third period, more than 19 minutes apart. That was it. No other Kraken player got a puck on net while the team was chasing in a one-goal game.
Meanwhile, Daccord got peppered with 38 Philadelphia offerings and did everything he could to keep his mates in the game, despite a 70-30 split in shot quality. Joey deserved better. The Kraken did not.
—
We’re getting into must-win territory here. The Kraken have lost seven of their last nine since their nine-game win streak ended on Jan. 13. If they lose a few more before they can get going in the right direction, their veterans on expiring contracts will be out the door.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
We’re back! After an outrageously long hiatus, the Seattle Kraken finally return to game action Saturday at the Flyers, kicking off a critical four-game road trip through Philadelphia, New Jersey, New York (Islanders), and Boston.
Now that Seattle’s players have reconvened in the City of Brotherly Love after their vacations to far-off destinations, this felt like a good time to reflect on what has transpired so far this season and consider where this team might go in the remaining 32 games on the schedule.
Entering play on Saturday, the Kraken sit at 21-19-10, good for 52 standings points and two points out of the last wild card spot in the Western Conference. The St. Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, and Calgary Flames are ahead of Seattle but can all theoretically be tied or jumped in just one night if everyone loses and Seattle wins.
So, the Kraken are very much within striking distance of a playoff spot, despite an up-and-down campaign so far.
Reasons to be optimistic
If you’ve stuck with Sound Of Hockey for a while, you know we generally lean toward optimism. It is way more fun to be bullish on Seattle’s chances than it is to be bearish, because at the end of the day, all we want to do is cover a winner.
Exiting the break, the Kraken occupy an awkward spot somewhere between bullishness and bearishness, but there is reason to be optimistic that the team will make the postseason for the second season in a row.
Good health
As we are writing this, we are simultaneously knocking on a big piece of wood. The Kraken are fully healthy for the first time since Opening Night, when Brandon Tanev took a nasty open-ice hit in Vegas and missed the subsequent month of hockey. (Worth noting, Alison Lukan reported that Justin Schultz did not participate in morning skate in Philadelphia due to personal reasons.) That should bring Seattle’s fans a nice dose of optimism.
Though he is still technically listed on injured reserve, we believe that even Pierre-Edouard Bellemare—who hasn’t played since blocking a shot with his foot in a 4-3 overtime loss at the Dallas Stars on Dec. 18—could be set to return to game action. Although he doesn’t move the needle offensively, it’s a luxury to have a veteran center like Bellemare, who can kill penalties and win face-offs, waiting in the wings. Expect PEB to be activated off IR in the coming days.
When the season started, we recall wondering which forward would be scratched from the lineup between Bellemare, Tye Kartye, and Kailer Yamamoto. Those questions didn’t linger for long, though, because Tanev immediately got hurt, meaning there were lineup spots for all those forwards. But now, the team has added Tomas Tatar to the top of the forward corps, which adds another question about who plays and who sits.
After a first half riddled with injuries and illnesses to key players, it will be interesting to see how coach Dave Hakstol manages a full roster moving forward. We loved the look he showed during the latter stages of Seattle’s nine-game win streak, when Jared McCann and Andre Burakovsky were part of a de facto “fourth” line. Seattle looked the best it has looked all season during those couple games when it was truly rolling four lines that could score, so we would love to see Hakstol go back to something similar in the near future.
Can this group stay healthy the rest of the way?
Joey Daccord
One positive that came out of Seattle’s many injury woes was the emergence of netminder Joey Daccord as a bona fide NHLer and potentially as a true No. 1 backstop. It was telling that even after Philipp Grubauer returned from a lower-body injury that kept him sidelined from Dec. 9 through Jan. 21, Daccord still started the four remaining games before the break.
We wondered for a while if Seattle was relying too heavily on Daccord, but after his play cooled from red-hot to more of a magenta hue, he was still more than solid between the pipes.
Daccord has impressed in his first full NHL season, posting a 15-9-9 record, 2.32 goals-against average, and .921 save percentage. Seattle will need both Daccord and Grubauer to be effective down the stretch, but Joey has shown he can shoulder most of the load if needed.
Daccord is a big reason for optimism.
This group can do it
Another reason to be optimistic is that the majority of this group was here last season and knows how to reach the playoffs. The Kraken have had some painful dips in play in the first 50 games, but they overcame a lot in the last month before the long All-Star break/bye week kicked in.
As Hakstol said after Seattle’s painful loss in San Jose on Jan. 30, the team now controls its own destiny. If they can get hot in these next few games and get themselves on a roll, the Kraken have the ability to make it to the postseason and even surprise some higher-ranked opponents.
Reasons to be pessimistic
Of course, based on Seattle’s current situation, making the playoffs is anything but guaranteed at this point. As our own John Barr pointed out in our recent Roundtable article, only 33 percent of teams with 52 points through 50 games end up making the playoffs.
That would indicate the odds are stacked against Seattle. While it looks like the Kraken are within arm’s reach of a wild card spot, leapfrogging one team is difficult in today’s NHL because of the potential three-point game that goes to overtime. Jumping over multiple teams is always tough, and as of the writing of this story, Seattle will need to get past at least three squads between now and the end of the season.
Post-break games are critical
We also believe that these first few games out of the break will be pivotal in helping general manager Ron Francis decide if he should be a seller or not at the March 8 trade deadline.
One would think that with improved health and plenty of rest, Seattle should come out of the break firing on all cylinders. But if you think back to last year, the Kraken embarked on a similar road trip upon returning to action, visiting all three New York Metropolitan teams, then Philadelphia, and then Winnipeg. The team went 1-3-1 on that trip and lost Burakovsky for the season in its first game back.
Our hope is that the Kraken learned from their mistakes and will come out of the break ready to go, but it is worth noting that the Flyers—Seattle’s opponent on Saturday—have already played two games since the pause and are 2-0-0 with wins over contenders in Florida and Winnipeg.
Deadline decisions looming
We don’t think the franchise is in a state yet where it should push its chips in and buy at the deadline, hoping to make a deep playoff run. So, the options will most likely be to again stand pat (like Francis did in 2022-23) or to sell off expiring contracts for draft picks (like he did in the team’s inaugural season).
Seattle has several important veteran players whose contracts are up after this season, including Jordan Eberle, Alex Wennberg, and Justin Schultz. All of those players have value on the trade market, but there will come a tipping point where Francis has to decide if these individuals are in the team’s future plans or not. If the team isn’t going anywhere this season, then the Kraken will want to salvage what they can and trade these players.
If the team comes out of the break sluggish, Francis may have no choice but to sell. At that point, the season would effectively be over.
What do you think, folks? Can the Kraken make the playoffs?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
At the beginning of January, we reviewed the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken and set expectations for how they would need to perform for the rest of the season to make the postseason. Now that January is done, and whilst we are waiting for the Kraken to return from their bye week and All-Star break, we can give an update on where the team stands.
Per the January forecast, the boys from “The Deep” needed to get two points against playoff-bound teams between Jan. 6 and Jan. 31 and got zero. They lost to the New York Rangers on Jan. 16 and to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 21. The Kraken were forecasted at four points against bubble teams and fell just short with three points, earning a win against the Washington Capitals and an overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues, but losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers.
With the sting of the loss to the lowly San Jose Sharks still fresh in our minds, it would be easy to label losses to bad teams as the reason the Kraken have fallen off the pace. However, if you recall, we sorted the teams into three categories, Playoff-Bound, Bubble, and Tanker teams with forecasted win percentages assigned to each group.
The Sharks are firmly in the Tankers category, and the Kraken had five games against Tanker teams. The NHL is the best league in the world, though, and any team can win on any given night. The Seattle Kraken put in a solid effort for 40 minutes with nothing to show for it and eventually lost to San Jose, but they still took eight out of a possible 10 points against the Tankers class. So, we can’t pin Seattle’s struggles in the standings on that one loss.
So where did they lose momentum? Three games:
1/16 vs. New York Rangers – Playoff-bound team
Chris Driedger started his second NHL game of the season on the tail end of back-to-back games. Injuries and illnesses caused Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky, and Matty Beniers to miss the game. The rookie, Ryker Evans, led all skaters with over 25 minutes of ice time. He played on the first pairing with Adam Larsson, which was a great opportunity for him, but was more indicative that the Kraken were playing with guys at less than 100 percent health. Everything was stacked against the Kraken in this one.
1/21 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Playoff-bound team
Fresh from his stint in the AHL, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, stood tall and made a couple of spectacular saves to keep his team firmly in the lead. Even with Burakovsky back from injury, the Kraken only generated a paltry 17 shots on net.
1/26 vs. St. Louis Blues – Bubble team
The Kraken held the most dangerous lead in hockey late in the second period, a 3-1 advantage, before a tripping penalty by Will Borgen. This woke up the St. Louis Blues, who scored three straight to come back and beat the Kraken in overtime. One point was still earned, and that is important.
The loss against St. Louis was a double-edged sword, as the Kraken are in direct competition with the Blues for a wild card spot. Games versus Western Conference bubble teams are very important; earning two points is key, but almost as important is preventing the opponent from getting points. From this one loss, the Kraken allowed the Blues to sneak into the last wild card spot just before the All-Star break.
Updating the forecast:
From the Sound Of Hockey’sKraken Roundtable, John Barr researched the following: “Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs.” Digging into this further, five of the nine teams that made it into the playoffs did so with 93 points or less.
Keeping the target of 93 points for the Kraken is still a realistic goal that could get them into the playoffs, but we do have to account for the three points missed in January. There has also been some movement between the team categories.
Changes are highlighted in bold:
Team Categories:
Playoff-bound teams:
Eastern Conference – Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes ↑
Bubble teams:
Eastern Conference – Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs ↓, New York Islanders ↓
Tanker teams (no change):
Eastern Conference –Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens
Western Conference – Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers ↑
Western Conference – Arizona Coyotes, Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild, Calgary Flames, Los Angeles Kings ↓
Western Conference – Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks
Factoring in the changes to the team categories and the three additional points needed, we have updated the forecast to the following:
Focus on February:
The Kraken have a pivotal month ahead as they march toward the trade deadline (March 8). With no games against Tanker teams, three versus Playoff-Bound teams, and six against Bubble teams, the Kraken will have to come back from the break firing on all cylinders.
Per the forecast, individual losses are not devastating, but the playoff-hopeful Kraken need to capture 11 of 18 possible points in the month, good for a .611 points percentage. Since goaltender Joey Daccord stepped into the starting role, the Kraken own a .659 points percentage over 22 games. With 32 games remaining, the Kraken need to maintain at least .640 point percentage the rest of the season or roughly four points every three games.
With the break allowing the team to recover from injuries and illnesses, hopefully coach Dave Hakstol will have his full lineup at his disposal. As of the All-Star break, moneypuck.com has the Kraken with the best odds to make the final wild card spot in the Western Conference at 42.3 percent. February will be a fun ride for Seattle as the Kraken push for a playoff position.
Please comment below with your thoughts on the Seattle Kraken’s playoff chances.
With the Kraken still on break, the guys decided to do a mega Mailbag on this week’s episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast.
This is an extended show, with plenty of insights about the big news that broke around the league this past week and eventually a solid 30-plus minutes of Curtis, John, and Darren answering questions from listeners.
Aside from the Mailbag, Weekly One-Timers is the lone segment this week.
A few weeks back, we reviewed the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents in a two-part series (Part I and Part II). This week, we will be jumping into the Kraken’s three restricted free agents (RFA’s) and reviewing what might be in store for them during the offseason. The Coachella Valley Firebirds also have five additional RFA’s in the Kraken development system. We will focus more on the RFA’s currently playing with Seattle but will also touch briefly on the ones playing for the Firebirds.
There are many rules around RFA’s that complicate contract negotiations. If you need a refresher on the free agency process and steps, Sound Of Hockey‘s own Curtis Isacke wrote a piece on free agency last year for review. The appendix outlines the terms associated with free agency, and there is also a section dedicated to RFA’s.
The Seattle Kraken RFA process is a long one that can last up to 18 months. It technically started back on July 1, 2023, when the players in question first became eligible to sign contract extensions. At the conclusion of the process, the hope for both sides is typically a finalized contract. These negotiations can sometimes drag into the following season, causing a player to miss time, but that is rare.
Here are the high-level steps RFA’s will go through:
Possibility of contract extension
Qualifying offers extended
Arbitration (if the player is eligible; Matty Beniers is the only Kraken RFA that does not have arbitration rights)
Contract negotiations (short-term bridge or long-term deal?)
The Kraken RFA’s are:
Matty Beniers (Age 21) – Target: Re-sign for two years at $5M AAV
Matty Beniers at Kraken practice. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
After dazzling as a rookie and capturing the Calder Trophy last season, Beniers has found himself in a sophomore slump season. His scoring pace has dipped by around 40 percent, signaling his value in negotiations has decreased and a bridge deal might be in his future.
While the scoring decline is noticeable, it’s crucial to consider the context. Through 50 games, the Kraken have scored 140 goals, down from the 177 goals they scored in 50 games last season. Beniers’ value also extends beyond pure offense. He’s a skilled two-way center, contributing defensively and driving puck possession. But, he still needs to produce offensively to warrant the massive contract his camp surely wants.
With no extension signed to date, it is questionable if a deal will be done before the offseason. Had Beniers maintained his rookie scoring pace, a maximum-term, eight-year contract would likely be on the table. Given the current scoring slump, a bridge deal (one-to-four years) appears more probable.
Looking at recent bridge deals for young, talented players offers some insight:
Trevor Zegras: three-year bridge at $5.75M AAV
Pierre-Luc Dubois: two-year bridge at $5M AAV, followed by a one-year bridge at $6M AAV
Despite the scoring dip, Beniers’ overall value remains high.
Defensive Prowess: His two-way play adds considerable value beyond the goal sheet.
Calder Trophy Winner: His past achievements and potential shouldn’t be disregarded.
Age and Development: At 21, Beniers is still developing and has plenty of room for improvement.
Trade options:
As the franchise’s first-ever draft pick and face of the team, the Kraken are unlikely to trade Beniers. We will not be reviewing trade options.
Prediction:
We anticipate a bridge deal in the two-to-four-year range with $4.5M-$5.5M AAV. This will give Beniers a chance to rediscover his scoring touch and earn a potential eight-year extension while still young.
Eeli Tolvanen (Age 24) – Target: Re-sign for 5 years at $4M AAV
Eeli Tolvanen’s arrival in Seattle via a savvy waiver wire claim has quickly become one of the NHL’s biggest waiver success stories. Now, as the 24-year-old winger approaches the end of his current contract, the Seattle Kraken face a crucial decision: bridge deal or long-term commitment?
Eeli Tolvanen and Yanni Gourde celebrate a goal against the Carolina Hurricanes. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Tolvanen’s offensive prowess is undeniable. He’s on pace for a career-high point total this season, showcasing a potent blend of goal-scoring ability and playmaking. His physicality is another asset, leading all Kraken forwards in hits (136), and he is also second in blocked shots (52) through 50 games.
Contract comparables:
Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes): five years, $4.3M AAV
Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis Blues): five years, $5M AAV
Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild): eight years, $5.25M AAV
Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): five years, $4.5M AAV
Complicating factors:
One wrinkle in the negotiations is Tolvanen’s arbitration eligibility. If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, an independent arbitrator will determine his contract value. This adds an element of uncertainty for both the Kraken and Tolvanen and gives the player more leverage.
Another factor to consider is Tolvanen’s unique skill set. Most of the comparable contracts listed above feature players that contribute on the penalty kill. The Finnish winger primarily thrives on five-on-five as a solid two-way player and brings an accurate shot to the power play.
Trade options:
While trades involving restricted free agents outperforming their current contracts are uncommon, since teams typically hold onto their relatively young talent, some recent deals offer insights into potential return value.
Artturi Lehkonen – Colorado surrendered a second-round pick and former first-round prospect Justin Barron for Lehkonen in 2022.
Sam Bennett – Florida sent a package of a second-round pick and former second-round prospect Emil Heineman for Bennett and a sixth-round pick in 2021.
While Tolvanen’s power-play prowess surpasses those of the comparables, it’s unlikely to push his trade value to a first-round pick. A target trade return should be two second-round picks/prospects or better. Despite the potential trade haul, the Kraken will likely prioritize re-signing Tolvanen unless an exceptional offer emerges.
The 2023 Tampa Bay Lightning trade for Tanner Jeannot serves as an example of an offer potentially too good to refuse. Nashville received a first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round draft pick, along with defenseman Cal Foote, for the feisty winger.
Prediction:
Despite the uncertainties, expect the Kraken to prioritize retaining Tolvanen long-term. Jared McCann and Vince Dunn were of similar age when they signed their deals with the Kraken and both will be 30 at the time their contracts come to term. We see the Kraken structuring this deal in a similar way but at a smaller dollar value than the $7.35M AAV deal for Dunn and the $5M AAV deal for McCann.
A five-year deal in the $4M-$4.5M AAV range seems like a reasonable outcome. While a longer-term contract isn’t out of the question, a five-year deal gives Tolvanen more options later in his career.
Kailer Yamamoto (Age 25) – Target: Trade for a fourth-round pick
Don’t let Kailer Yamamoto’s stature fool you. At 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the Seattle Kraken forward might be one of the smallest players in the NHL, but his heart and hustle are oversized. He came to the Kraken via free agency after being traded and then bought out of his last $3.2M contract by Detroit, but he is now a pending RFA with Seattle.
Kailer Yamamoto handles the puck. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Yamamoto’s tenacity is most evident on the forecheck, where he uses his low center of gravity to hound puck carriers; he is third on the team in takeaways minus giveaways. The Spokane native’s knack for entering the offensive zone with control translates to his high power play usage.
Yamamoto’s versatility adds another layer to his worth, his high career shooting percentage (14.1 percent) allows him to bump up the lineup when needed. Despite his fourth-line designation, Yamamoto’s advanced statistics are strong. He currently leads the Kraken in both Corsi and Fenwick percentage, suggesting that Yamamoto not only generates offense himself, but also elevates the play of his teammates when on the ice.
The Seattle Kraken only deploy Yamamoto about 12 minutes per game and have scratched him from the lineup on several occasions. In researching players to find comparable contracts, the search was narrowed to players that:
Average under 13 minutes per game.
Average over 90 seconds of power-play time per game.
Have under 20 points on the season.
Have played more than 25 games this season.
Only six players meet this criteria, and they either are playing at or near the league minimum salary or have signed a large deal and are not playing to their contract’s value. Yamamoto doesn’t fit in these categories, so we will not be looking at those comparables.
The small winger is only 25, so he does have one more year where he can play as an RFA. At this point, though, it is apparent the fourth-liner is not going to move the needle enough for the Seattle Kraken and has solidified himself as a depth player.
The winger is arbitration eligible, and a qualifying offer would have to match his current $1.5M AAV. For these reasons, we think it is unlikely the Kraken extend a qualifying offer to Yamamoto. The former Spokane Chief could still sign with the Kraken during free agency, and if that happens, you can expect another one-year deal in the neighborhood of $1M AAV.
Trade options:
The best trade to review is probably his own from Edmonton to Detroit, but there are a couple other options to review too:
Kailer Yamamoto – Detroit sent the infamous “Future Considerations” to Edmonton in 2023 and also received the signing rights of Klim Kostin.
Oskar Sundqvist – Detroit acquired a fourth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023
Rasmus Asplund – Nashville traded a seventh-round pick to Nashville in 2023
The only piece that has changed since Yamamoto’s last trade is his AAV is now $1.5M versus $3.2M when traded in 2023. Factoring in that Yamamoto is still an RFA and the Kraken can retain 50 percent of his contract, a playoff-bound team getting a depth winger with power play experience at a minimal cap hit does have some value. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is in the right range.
Prediction:
If the Kraken remain in the playoff hunt, they will probably hold onto Yamamoto through the end of the season. There are capable right wing fourth-line options in Coachella Valley with Kole Lind, Marian Studenic, and John Hayden available for call-ups, though, so if they get an offer for Yamamoto, the Kraken may be willing to trade him.
Down on the Farm [Moooo!]
Even when I type “Moooo”, I hear it in Sound Of Hockey Podcast host, Darren Brown’s voice. All five of the Coachella Valley Firebird RFA’s are arbitration eligible. This is not as much of a concern as at the NHL level, because most contracts will be two-way deals around league minimum, $775K AAV. All of these players make under $1M, so the qualifying offers will include a five percent increase. We will review each player and assign a “Qualify”, “Trade,” or “Let walk” tag to each player.
Kole Lind– Target: Trade The 25-year-old winger excels on the offensive side of the game, but his scoring successes have not translated to the NHL yet. Similar to Daniel Sprong, there are questions around his two-way play, which makes him a hard fit for the Kraken. He’s one of those guys that has been right on the cusp of making it in the NHL, though. The Kraken should look to trade the winger and package him with another player.
Ville Petman – Target: Qualify The Finnish winger was signed to a two-year deal in 2022 after showing promise in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, scoring 39 points in 59 games. Bringing him to the AHL have allowed the Kraken to evaluate how Petman adapts to the North American game and monitor his improvement. The 24-year-old left wing got off to a good start with 28 points in his first AHL season, but he unfortunately has not showed improvement this season. There are still enough positives to award Petman another contract, but don’t expect to see him on the Kraken roster any time soon.
Luke Henman – Target: Let walk The first player signed to a contract in Kraken franchise history, Henman was never signed to an entry-level deal by Carolina after being drafted in the fourth round in 2018. In his three years in the AHL, his offensive abilities have become stagnant, averaging 0.24 points per game. At 23, Henman still has time to develop, but making the NHL at this point is a going to be an uphill battle.
Marian Studenic – Target: Qualify Studenic is a hard-forechecking winger with a scoring touch. Listed at 165 pounds, he is on the lighter side but could fill a fourth-line type role. With one year remaining as RFA, we think the Kraken will make him a qualifying offer. Update, it has come to my attention that Studenic will actually be a Group 6 UFA at the end of the season. That means the Kraken would not make a qualifying offer, but rather just re-sign him.
Peetro Seppala – Target: Qualify Seppala is a left-shot defenseman that is getting good experience in the AHL. The Finn brings a mix of good puck-moving ability and improving offensive numbers in his two years with the Firebirds. He is behind Ryker Evans on the depth chart and still needs to develop his game, though. We think the Kraken will look to retain Seppala’s rights and extend him a qualifying offer.
Group 6 UFA Sound of Hockey’s own Curtis Isacke pointed out that Kole Lind and Martin Studenic will most likely be Group 6 UFA’s at the end of the season and he is absolutely correct. A full definition of a Group 6 UFA can be found here. A simplified definition is a player that is at least 25 years-old, played at least 3 professional seasons and played less than 80 games at the NHL level.
Overall:
Beniers’ development, Tolvanen’s retention, and Yamamoto’s future all paint a larger picture of Seattle’s commitment to building a contender. Balancing the Kraken’s short-term needs with long-term aspirations, the decisions made this offseason will be interesting to watch. Join the conversation below and let us know how you think the Kraken should handle their RFA’s.
This is Part I of a two-part series where we will look at the best player at each position group from each U.S. Division team. This week is a glance at the goaltenders, an area that has seen strong performances of late.
Portland Winterhawks: Jan Spunar
18 GP: 13-3-0-1, 1.73 GAA, 0.933 SV%
One of the most well-rounded teams in the WHL might just have one of the best goaltending situations with the tandem of Jan Spunar and Nick Avakyan finally being at full health. When it comes to identifying who most likely gets the nod going into the playoffs, it’s hard to look away from the abilities of Spunar.
Spunar won WHL Goaltender of the Month in September/October but went down with a lower-body injury in mid-November, sidelining him for over two months. Portland has had it rough on the injury end with goalies, at one point being down to their fourth-string netminder. Fortunately, this tough stretch didn’t phase the Winterhawks, who still sit in first place in the Western Conference.
With a WHL-leading 1.63 GAA and .936 SV% through the months of September and October, @pdxwinterhawks netminder Jan Špunar is the WHL Goaltender of the Month!
Spunar, still leading the league for goals against average at 1.73, returned to the lineup this past Friday against the Kelowna Rockets. He didn’t skip a beat, only allowing one goal while stopping 28 Rockets shots, then stopping 25 of 26 shots the following night against Seattle.
Spunar is ranked No. 21 by NHL Central Scouting for North American Goaltenders.
Honorable Mention: Nick Avakyan (13-7-1-0, 3.81 GAA, 0.876 SV%)
Everett Silvertips: Tyler Palmer
34 GP: 21-8-1-2, 2.57 GAA, 0.909 SV%
It’s hard to pick just one goalie from a true tandem that the Silvertips have going, especially with the amount of success their goalies have brought this season. Everett currently holds the second seed in the Western Conference, but if our rankings are based off statistics and eye test alone, Tyler Palmer has been the rock in net for the Silvertips. Palmer, like the rest of the Silvertips, shines brightest at Angel of the Winds Arena, where he has gone 13-3-1 on the year.
Palmer displayed his impressive athleticism on Sunday with a 28-save performance against the Wenatchee Wild. He took home the first star that night as the Silvertips cruised to a 6-1 win.
A veteran by Western Hockey League standards at this point, Daniel Hauser has a ridiculous .785 win percentage since entering the league in 2020-21. While the winning has slowed considerably this season for Hauser, who has seen more losses in 2023-24 than the entirety of his time with the now-defunct Winnipeg Ice, he’s still producing and helping lead the Wild down the stretch into the playoffs.
Playing in a total of 31 playoff games with a career save percentage of 0.907 over the past two seasons, it might be the experience Hauser has in those high-pressure moments that can help carry the Wild farther than anticipated.
While it hasn’t been the most consistent of seasons for the Spokane Chiefs, one thing they haven’t lacked is consistency from their 18-year-old starting goalie.
Draft eligible this coming summer, Dawson Cowan has been a stable force for the Chiefs. Despite sporting a losing record this season, Spokane is also privy to seeing 35-plus shots per game, with Cowan having to do much of the heavy lifting.
When I observed Spokane in December, one of the main draws from the amount Cowan played was how much confidence he had in his game. Even with his hefty workload, Cowan has shown the poise and alertness that goaltenders are expected to have at the next level.
Cowan represented the Chiefs at the Kubota CHL Top Prospects Game in Moncton, New Brunswick. He is ranked fifth by NHL Central Scouting for North American Goaltenders.
Tri-City Americans: Lukas Matecha
27 GP, 10-13-1-1, 3.16 GAA, 0.909 SV%
Much like Cowan, Lukas Matecha’s team allows plenty of shots through to him, which can be overwhelming for a young goalie. Also NHL Draft eligible this summer, Matecha has kept the Tri-City Americans afloat during the middle portion of the season and nearing the playoffs.
The 18-year-old from Chrudim, Czech Republic has a large frame at 6-foot-3, 187 pounds, but still makes the proper reads with his responses being adequately quick.
Matecha represented the Americans at the CHL Top Prospects game as well. He is ranked No. 9 by NHL Central Scouting for North American Goaltenders.
Seattle: Scott Ratzlaff (BUF)
32 GP, 13-16-1-0, 3.38 GAA. 0.904 SV%
We might be saving the best for last here. When talking about Scott Ratzlaff and the potential he has to succeed at the NHL level, it’s best not to look at the stat sheet, at least from this season. And even then, he has numbers that are still respectable, even with how low Seattle has sunk in the standings this season. Stats from 2022-23 are way more of a reflection of the type of player and leader Ratzlaff is.
But looking beyond the stats, he’s about the sharpest he’s been all season right now. The way Ratzlaff has been trending with some of the athletic stops he’s made over the past month, including an incredible sprawling save in a game recently against Prince George, it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts to get similar levels of hype and attention that fellow Sabres goaltender Devon Levi has received.
Ratzlaff’s best outing of the season thus far came this past week in Everett, against a Silvertips team with one of the best home records in the league. This was a game he basically won single-handedly for Seattle, as he stopped a whopping 62 of 63 shots faced in the 3-1 victory.
With the Kraken still in the midst of their long All-Star/bye week hiatus, there has not been much action since the last edition of Monday Musings. So this week I am going to dig into a few topics I have been wanting to look at for a while but haven’t had the time, instead of re-reacting to the Seattle Kraken loss to the Sharks last Tuesday. If you’re here looking for that, you can listen to last week’s episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. Spoiler: you will probably be underwhelmed by my non-emotionally charged response.
Shane Wright’s progress
I have talked to a few people about how Shane Wright has been performing in Coachella Valley. What I’ve heard is that those who have a critical eye for hockey talent seem to be impressed with how he is progressing. There will always be questions on how skill and production in the AHL translate to the NHL, but you want to see some stand-out qualities while young prospects are playing in the AHL. Shane is showing these stand-out qualities.
There are a couple areas I wanted to look at with regard to Shane’s game. First, how does his production compare to other forwards that played in the AHL at his age? Second, how is he trending? Is he getting better as the season progresses?
One area of note, getting advanced(ish) data from the AHL without buying an expensive stats package from a third-party provider is a challenge, so take all this analysis with a grain of salt.
From this basic analysis, it appears that Wright is scoring goals at the top end of his peer group, with .44 goals per game so far this season. Again, it is not a perfect analysis for projecting future results in the NHL, but we must be happy with the direction this is headed.
Shane Wright in-season trends
To take a stab at evaluating if Shane is getting better, I just created a moving average of shots, points, and goals. Ideally, we would have something like expected goals that would be generated by using shot location and events, but the AHL isn’t as lucky to have a rich analytics community that evaluates play-by-play data and runs it through a model to produce such metrics. Goals and points are obvious indicators of success on the ice, but I added shots to see if Wright has been generating more shots per game as the season progresses.
The chart is rather inconclusive. There was a sag in Wright’s points and goal production between games 20 and 28 with only a slight dip in shots during that same time span. Point production and goals seem to be rebounding lately, but both are roughly on par with where Wright was producing toward the beginning of the season.
One thing that is not available is time on ice and more specifically time on ice by game scenario (power play, penalty kill, etc.). Shane is on the power play and penalty kill, which is great to see, but we can’t break out the data to show that.
Here is a video from Saturday night. The clip does not do the play justice, but Wright was killing a penalty, stole the puck from the Tucson player, and charged down the ice to find a streaking Ryan Winterton as the penalty expired.
Overall, I think we should be excited with how Shane is developing into the two-way center he was billed as when the Kraken drafted him fourth overall in 2022.
Kraken scoring
It is obvious that one of the biggest challenges for the Seattle Kraken this year has been scoring goals. Part of this has been driven by injuries, and part of it has been a natural regression to a more normal shooting percentage after last year’s torrid pace.
There have been positive signs that the shooting percentage has been rebounding a bit. The Kraken’s shooting percentage has been 11.3 percent over the last 20 games. This topic warrants a deep dive on the scoring this season, so expect a Data Dump on that later this week.
Other Musings
We have seen two big trades over the last five days that both involved a first-round draft pick as part of the trade, in exchange for a center. You must figure other teams looking for a center are calling Ron Francis to see what it would take to get pending unrestricted free agent, Alexander Wennberg. In my opinion, Wennberg is on par with Sean Monahan, who just fetched a first-round pick in 2024 and a conditional third-round pick in 2027. With that market set, until the Kraken are squarely out of the playoff race, you don’t move Wennberg for anything less than a first.
If the Kraken trade Wennberg, the departure of his versatility will leave a huge hole in the lineup. He plays on the power play and penalty kill and leads Kraken forwards in total time on ice, averaging 18:42 per game.
It was exciting to hear the news about NHL players returning to the Olympics. Those tournaments have brought so much excitement for the game in the past. The Kraken have several players who have played in past Olympics, including Matty Beniers, Eeli Tolvanen, and Tomas Tatar. Will Borgen was also named to Team USA in 2018 but did not play a game.
If you need a local hockey fix, you might want to tune into the AHL All-Star Game airing on NHL Network Monday. There are a lot of former Seattle Thunderbirds and Everett Silvertips playing in the game: Brad Lambert, Jake Christiansen, Gage Goncalves, Dustin Wolf, Olen Zellweger, and Dylan Guenther were all named to the game, plus the Seattle Kraken’s own Ryker Evans will be there.
Player performances
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard – One of the Kraken’s second-round selections in last summer’s NHL Entry Draft, Molgaard has nine points in his last 10 games playing for HV71 in the top-tier league in Sweden. Prior to those 10 games, he had seven points over his first 27 games of the season. We chatted with Oscar back in July.
Tyson Jugnauth – A fourth-round draft pick of the Kraken from 2022, Jugnauth has 24 points in 22 games for the Portland Winterhawks. He started the season with the Wisconsin Badgers but only had two assists in 13 games. He left school midseason to play for Portland, and I am pretty sure he has no regrets leaving Wisconsin (he explained his decision to leave in a Sound Of Hockey story here).
Niklas Kokko – The Finnish goaltender has two wins in his last three starts playing for Pelicans, his new team in Liiga. He has a .947 save percentage in that span.
Goal of the week
we can’t play it here but Lithium came on after Bjorkstrand’s goal & it was beautiful 🥹 pic.twitter.com/7lzo7AcMzh
The Kraken return to action on Saturday in Philadelphia. The Flyers dropped their last five games with a goal differential of 27-13 but have two games before they take on Seattle. Expect some rust for the Kraken coming out of the long break (last year they lost their first three games after the All-Star break).
Thanks to reader/listener ‘Yanni’s Suffocating Pestilence,’ who gave me a homework assignment after last week’s Musings. Expect some of those findings in the next edition.
If you have any thoughts or areas of exploration, feel free to leave a comment, and I will add it to the backlog.
After an eight-year hiatus, the thrill of NHL stars battling for international glory on the Winter Olympic stage is set to return. The National Hockey League has officially committed to participating in the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy, as well as the 2030 Games with the host city yet to be determined. This announcement, coinciding with the NHL All-Star weekend, ignites anticipation for a renewed era of “best-on-best” international hockey at the Olympics.
“The international composition of National Hockey League rosters is unparalleled, and NHL players take great pride in representing their countries,” NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said via a press release. “We are pleased that today, after intense collaborative efforts with the NHL Players’ Association and the International Ice Hockey Federation, we can formally announce that NHL Players will participate in both the 2026 and 2030 Olympic hockey tournaments.”
From Sochi to Milan: A journey interrupted
The NHL’s last Olympic foray was in Sochi, Russia, in 2014 when Canada, led by superstars Drew Doughty and Sidney Crosby, reigned supreme. However, the path to Milan has been far from smooth. Despite an initial agreement for NHL participation in the 2022 Beijing Olympics, concerns surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on the NHL season forced a withdrawal. This left a void for fans craving the electrifying atmosphere of NHL players competing on the Olympic stage.
“For years, the players have embraced the opportunity to compete for Olympic gold, and we are excited that today’s announcement makes it a certainty for our members in the 2026 and 2030 Olympic Winter Games,” said Marty Walsh, executive director for the NHLPA. “We also know that hockey fans worldwide have long been anticipating the next best-on-best international competition, and now they can finally see some of their favourite players represent their countries and line up together.”
With the official confirmation, the excitement shifts towards roster speculation. Who will represent their respective nations? Will established veterans like Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon lead the charge, or will younger talents like Connor Bedard take center stage? The international rivalries, particularly between traditional powerhouses like Canada and the United States, promise captivating storylines.
Looking forward: A golden opportunity
The NHL’s Olympic return carries significant implications beyond thrilling competition. It presents a unique opportunity to showcase the sport to a global audience, potentially attracting new fans and fostering its international growth. For players, representing their countries on the Olympic stage can be a career-defining moment, etching their names in hockey history alongside past Olympic medalists.
Despite the enthusiasm, challenges remain. Integrating the Olympics into the already congested NHL schedule requires careful planning and collaboration between the NHL, the NHLPA, and the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF). There are also concerns regarding building an arena on schedule and potential injuries that could impact the NHL season.
Still, the NHL’s return to the Olympics marks a significant chapter for the sport. It rekindles the dream of witnessing the world’s best hockey players battling for international glory, offering a spectacle that transcends nations and ignites excitement. With careful planning and collaboration, this renewed partnership can contribute to the sport’s global expansion and leave a lasting legacy for generations of players and fans alike.
We have officially reached the All-Star break/bye week.The Seattle Kraken are sitting fifth in the Pacific Division and two points behind the St. Louis Blues for the last playoff spot. We figured now would be a fine time for a good, old fashioned Sound Of Hockey Kraken Roundtable to take a pulse check on how we’re feeling about the season so far and what to expect the rest of the way.
Sound Of Hockey contributors Blaiz Grubic, Cameron Riggers, Curtis Isacke, John Barr, and Darren Brown all got together to answer some (not so) burning questions.
Enjoy!
Who is your outstanding performer of the season so far?
Blaiz: Joey Daccord. First, I was excited to see him even make the Kraken as the back-up this year. As he has taken over the starting job, I have enjoyed watching his style, especially how he plays the puck. This is something that makes me nervous in most goalies, but Daccord does it so well. I am in awe watching it.
Cameron: I think Vince Dunn. I love the consistency that he plays with, adding value to all facets of the game and playing with poise while not being afraid to lay a body out or get in someone else’s grill. I feel like I never notice him because he’s so seamless in his defensive style of play, and when I do notice him, it’s usually because he’s contributing offensively. He’s been underrated by many national circles for some time, and I think he’s really turned himself into a solid No. 1 defenseman.
John: As Blaiz mentioned, I think it has to be Joey Daccord. The budding star netminder has two shutouts and a .917 save percentage, and I don’t know where this team would be in the standings without him. It is great to see him get regular reps in the NHL, where we’re finding out what he’s capable of doing.
Honorable mention to Tomas Tatar. The Kraken traded for him for virtually nothing, and he has impressed me since he got here. He has been making his linemates better ever since his first day with the club.
Curtis: I agree that Daccord is probably the performer who stands apart from the pack. Advanced metrics rank his performance preventing shots from becoming goals somewhere between above average and elite. And, as I investigated (Part I, Part II), he may be having an even more significant impact on the game beyond that.
But since Daccord has received significant shine already, I need to call out Seattle’s one consistent goal scorer: Jared McCann. Coming off a 40-goal season, he has 20 goals so far this year, which is a 33-goal pace and represents 14.4 percent of the team total.
Pair this with solid defense and the ability to provide value on all special teams units, and I shudder to think where Seattle would be without McCann. Before the season, I was guarded in my expectations for the Kraken because I didn’t see the goal scoring beyond McCann. At least he has held up his end of the bargain.
Darren: Joey! Joey! Joey!
What is the biggest disappointment of the season so far?
Cameron: I’m hesitant to say the younger players, but their production hasn’t met my expectations coming into the season. Seattle has only gotten 19 points from Matty Beniers, 15 from Tye Kartye, and four from Ryker Evans, though his playing time has been limited. I know it’s difficult to expect the world from those players, given that they’re all still so young, but from the expectations they created for themselves last year (especially Beniers and Kartye), I was hopeful for a bit more.
John: I love love love Andre Burakovsky, but he has been a big disappointment this year. ‘Burky’ has one of the best shots on the team but only has one goal over the 19 games he has played. I know he has missed a lot of hockey over the last year due to injury, so I think it is just a matter of time before he returns to form.
Darren: I’m with you, John. I keep waiting for Burakovsky to Burrrrreak out (get it?), but it just hasn’t happened. The real disappointment with him, though, is just how much time he’s had to miss again this season. After rehabbing from a serious groin injury all offseason, he returned for a few games, got hurt again, played two periods, and got hurt a third time. That’s a tough, tough go for that guy.
He’s been a streaky scorer historically, so maybe after this break he can catch fire.
Curtis: You’re all right, those are disappointments. Given that Beniers is still working through clear development challenges, I’ll focus on Burakovsky.
Even when he’s been out there, he hasn’t been a factor. And there are only so many times you can rationalize his lack of production by telling yourself, “To be fair, he has only played x games in the last two months.”
I don’t think he’s found a comfortable fit in Seattle’s north-south, forechecking style. He is more inclined to slow the game, possess the puck as a playmaker, and send passes east-west. Stylistically, it just hasn’t clicked yet. He hasn’t been “bad,” but he should be one of the team’s higher-end play drivers, and that simply hasn’t happened. The skills are there, but he rarely looks in sync with his teammates. With three years left on his deal after this one, Burakovsky and the coaching staff need to find a solution.
Blaiz: The slow start to the season was a bummer for me. After the high of the playoffs last year, it was just a letdown to start the year with four straight losses. After that, it was even more disappointing to see the team just treading water for a bit before a swift kick to a body part resulting in a medium-body injury when the Kraken lost eight straight.
Are you buying, selling, or holding at the deadline? (If you are holding explain when you will decide… i.e., After the first road trip.)
John: I don’t know if you can consider this selling, but I would always be listening. I don’t think any of the players are untouchable, which means it just comes down to price. Even if the Kraken are in the playoff picture, I think they can move a pending free agent or two for the right price.
The biggest need for the Kraken right now is high-end talent, and the only real way to get that talent is through the draft. Any draft pick the Kraken get in a trade is likely a mid-to-late second-round draft pick. Second-round picks can turn into good players, but they rarely turn into elite-tier NHL performers.
Blaiz: I think it depends on if the Kraken have a realistic chance to make the playoffs. I am holding until that is not an option. The Kraken have a tough February schedule, so in the later part of the month, we should have a clearer picture.
I typically plan for the best, meaning they will make the playoffs. Assuming that happens, I am still holding; I am not ready to mortgage the future yet. That said, I do believe every player has a price so if something comes up that can make the team better, the Kraken should jump on it.
Darren: Blaiz and I are in the same camp here. While my heart would LOVE to see Seattle make a splash and go for it, my brain knows that’s not how Ron Francis operates, nor should he at this moment in time. I would expect either A.) what the team did in the inaugural season—selling all expiring contracts for draft picks—if Seattle is out of the playoffs at the deadline, or B.) standing pat, like the team did last season and doing what they can with that group.
Cameron: I really think that this next road trip to some of the Eastern Conference’s top teams will have a real say in where this club will go. I don’t think it’s in the position to be in either full-on buying or selling mode. Frankly, the Kraken exist in that awkward middle ground between competitive and not, but if they go something like 0-3-1 after the break, and the teams around them stay consistent, then they will be almost forced to shop their expiring UFA’s around.
A decision needs to be made soon, though. I personally think selling is the best thing for the future of this team, but what the Kraken do depends on where this next road trip takes them.
Curtis: Barring something truly unforeseen, Seattle shouldn’t be a “buyer” at the deadline. I don’t think that makes sense given where the team is in the arc of its roster and player development pipeline.
The team has a number of expiring contracts for players in their early-to-mid 30’s who would be risky to re-sign, given their ages. This makes me strongly inclined to listen to offers. That said, I agree that the team should hold its water as long as possible. The trade deadline is March 8, so make a tentative decision about whether to move forward with selling after the Feb. 22 home game against Vancouver.
Give us a reason to be optimistic or pessimistic about the last 32 games
John: I am generally an optimistic person, but I wake up aware of the challenges of the day. Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs. That means 66 percent do not make it. That said, I do believe this team will continue to make a run at one of the wild card spots. Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, and Burakovsky have not been sharp since coming back from their respective injuries, and I think it is just a matter of time before they get going again.
Cameron: I’ll give a reason for optimism and one for pessimism.
Optimistic – After their road trip, the Kraken will play 15 of their next 19 games at home, practically spending their entire end of February and all of March in Seattle. They won’t really leave the Pacific time zone either, aside from a few central time one-offs. This streaky team can really play into becoming a more consistent club over the next two months by the favorable schedule, which will allow them to settle into a routine.
Pessimistic – The schedule lightens up for the teams around the Kraken in the standings as well, with Nashville, St. Louis, and Minnesota all set to enjoy easier strengths of schedule. Seattle still has to play Boston twice and Winnipeg three times, so there are some tough matchups ahead.
Blaiz: I’m optimistic. Since Daccord has taken the reins, the Kraken have a .659 points percentage in 22 games. If they can maintain that pace, they would capture 42 points, putting them at 94 on the season. That is definitely in the conversation for making the playoffs. Adding to what John researched, of the 33 percent of teams that made the playoffs after racking up 52 points in 50 games, 55 percent of those teams got into the playoffs with 93 or fewer points. This shows that 94 points would put the Kraken in a decent position to sneak in.
Curtis: Looking at the team’s on-ice play, I’m optimistic. Seattle’s roster is almost entirely healthy now, and the last three games against St. Louis, Columbus, and San Jose were actually three of the team’s strongest in terms of controlling overall shot quality (yes, I know they went 1-1-1 in those games and faced two bad opponents). Add to that strong play in goal, and there is reason to be confident this team will perform well down the stretch.
I must admit to some nagging pessimism, though. As has been discussed, the numbers indicate it is still an uphill climb to make the playoffs. But, more than that, I worry the team will get trapped in an “in between” position where it isn’t a true playoff threat but doesn’t sell either and misses a chance to acquire additional assets for the future. It’s an uncomfortable way to watch these games.
Darren: I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned the team’s health, Curtis. I’m sometimes too optimistic for my own good, but Seattle can win in a lot of different ways when healthy. Dave Hakstol has only had the luxury of rolling four lines for a handful of games this season, and coming out of the break, the team should be as healthy as it has been since Opening Night (and deeper than they were on Opening Night, since Tatar wasn’t here yet).
If they can stay relatively healthy down the stretch, I think the Kraken have a strong chance at the playoffs.
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Now it is your turn. What would be your responses to these questions? Leave your thoughts in the comment section.
