SEATTLE – Shane Wright said it best this week when describing how hearing his name called at the NHL Draft fulfilled a childhood dream. He’s right, and most of the players participating in the Seattle Kraken’s first development camp lived that dream out in some way. They heard their names called, and those in attendance at the draft got to pull an NHL jersey over their heads and pose for pictures.
Kraken prospect Tye Kartye didn’t get to live out that dream, but the forward was at camp this week with an NHL contract in his back pocket.
“There’s a lot of different paths,” Kartye said after the final day of development camp.
He was passed up by the NHL, first in 2019 after scoring four goals and 24 points for the Ontario Hockey League’s Soo Greyhounds. The following season he scored 26 goals but was passed up again as well as in 2021 when the OHL shut down due to the COVID pandemic.
“The first year I went through it, I don’t think I deserved to get drafted. So obviously it’s disappointing, but I kind of saw it coming,” Kartye, 21, said. “Then got passed up again and that was after a good season. That was a little more disappointing.”
While they didn’t draft him, the Kraken were interested enough and invited him to their training camp last fall. He said it didn’t take long to say yes to the invite.
Kartye gets Kraken camp invite
He played well in camp before last season, just hoping to expose the Kraken to his skill and leave an impression. Eventually he was returned to the Greyhounds for his final year of junior with no promises of where he would play in 2022-23.
“It was kind of like ‘you did a good job, and we’ll keep watching you,’” he said about the message Seattle gave him. “That obviously gave a boost to your confidence after a good camp. So, I kept that going through the start of the year.”
Armed with renewed confidence and positive encouragement from his coaches with the Greyhounds, Kartye had a good 2021-22 season. His coaches reminded him to keep grinding, knowing that his path to pro hockey was far from over.
He responded with a monster season, scoring 45 goals with 34 assists for 79 points in 63 games, good for fourth in the league scoring race.
“Everything came together for me, and the hard work for the first four years really paid off in that year,” Kartye said. “Just being older doesn’t mean you’re gonna have a good year. You look at the league and there’s guys throughout the league who are 20 and don’t live up to expectations. I definitely think that part of it was having the experience, but there’s a lot of other factors that went into that as well.”
It turns out that the Kraken were watching and started checking in with him around the holidays.
Signing his first NHL contract
Impressed, Seattle offered him an entry-level contract in early March.
“I was just ecstatic because this is what you’ve been trying to do for your whole junior career and you never know if it’s gonna happen,” Kartye said. “When you finally get that call with the offer. It’s a pretty special day.”
Getting signed is exciting enough, but when it comes from a hall-of-famer like Kraken general manager Ron Francis, who just happened to play his junior hockey for the same Soo Greyhounds franchise, it’s a little extra special.
“He’s a legend in the Soo,” Kartye said with a smile. “The rink is on Ron Francis Way.”
Kartye, who is listed at 6-foot-1 and 199 pounds, had a good showing at development camp. It was highlighted by him scoring a goal during the team’s midweek scrimmage.
He likely will start the season in the American Hockey League with the Coachella Valley Firebirds for his first pro hockey experience. Growing up in Ontario, he’s not familiar with the Valley but has heard about the weather and, as a golfer, is going to bring his clubs with him.
Expect to see Kartye at Kraken training camp in the fall, and since the Firebirds are starting their season in Seattle, he’ll be around one way or another. Even though he has a signed contract, Kartye isn’t taking things like development camp for granted.
“I’m just taking all the things I learned here and trying to implement them throughout the summer,” he said. “Just trying to be the best player I can be for training camp.”
It remains to be seen how much NHL time he’ll get, but Kartye is an example for younger players. He’s proved that even if you’re overlooked and passed up in the draft, that doesn’t mean giving up on pro hockey dreams.
“I would always tell the younger guys on my team in their draft year this is what happened to me,” Kartye said. “I had a good year and was one of the leaders on the team, so I tried to just implement to the young guys that the draft is not the be-all end-all. Obviously, everyone wants to get drafted and that’s your first option. But if it doesn’t work out, it’s definitely not the end of the road. There’s a lot of different paths.”
Day one of free agency promises a frenzy of activity around the NHL, and in Seattle we were not disappointed. It is true that some of the higher profile names did not end up with the Kraken (at least not yet). Johnny Gaudreau opted to sign elsewhere and defenseman John Klingberg went through the day without an agreement.
But the Kraken were nonetheless heavily involved in free agency, signing a total of nine free agents to contracts within the first eight hours. In addition to reshaping the NHL roster, general manager Ron Francis and his staff were hard at work building up a depth chart of players to man the inaugural season of the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
So, what happened on day one? Where do we stand? And what might be next for Seattle? Let’s dive in.
Recapping day one of free agency
The Kraken signed the following free agents within hours of the opening bell of NHL free agency:
C Andrew Poturalski, 28, signed a two-year, $762,500 AAV deal. The right-shot forward had 28 goals and 73 assists in 71 regular season games for the Chicago Wolves (AHL) last year, becoming the first player to score more than 100 points in the AHL in 12 years. Poturalski scored another 23 points in 18 post-season games en route to a Calder Cup with the Wolves. His deal is a one-way deal, meaning he will make NHL dollars even if he is sent to the AHL.
G Magnus Hellberg, 31, signed a one-year, $750,000 AAV contract. Hellberg played for a few club teams last year, but most of his time came with Sochi (KHL). He posted a 2.42 GAA and 0.917 save percentage in Sochi. Hellberg has appeared in five NHL games with the Rangers, Predators, and Red Wings. His contract is also a one-way deal.
C/LW Cameron Hughes, 25, signed a two-year, two-way contract. Hughes had 14 goals and 21 assists in 2021-22 with the Providence Bruins (AHL).
RW Austin Poganski, 26, signed a one-year, two-way contract. Poganski appeared in 16 games for the Winnipeg Jets last year but did not record a point. He scored nine goals and 21 assists during the remainder of his 2021-22 season with the Manitoba Moose (AHL).
And that wasn’t all the Kraken accomplished on a busy July 13. The team also signed draftees Shane Wright, Ryan Winterton, and Jacob Melanson to entry-level contracts.
Stacking the depth chart
After the aforementioned moves, here is a quick snapshot of the organizational depth chart (names in italics signed to AHL contracts):
Roles are not yet defined. For example, I have not heard one member of the Kraken organization suggest that Shane Wright could play on the wing this year if he sticks with Seattle. This is just my speculation, in part inspired by the depth at center, (lack of) depth on the right side, and scouting reports on Wright’s defense.
And there is certainly more work that needs to get done to round out these depth charts. (More on this below.) But this is a tremendous amount of roster building achieved in just one day, especially for the new team in Coachella Valley. Impressive work by the Seattle staff.
Resetting Seattle’s needs and opportunities going into day two
After these first-day moves, the Kraken have $10.61 million in cap space. And restricted free agents Cale Fleury, Morgan Geekie, Kole Lind, and Carsen Twarynski remain to be signed. Assuming Fleury, Geekie, and Lind make the NHL team, I will allocate $3 million of cap space to those players, leaving $7.61 million to spend.
The team could theoretically spend even more than that by moving Chris Driedger’s $3.5 million cap hit onto Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) before the season starts. But I doubt the team will want to hamstring its flexibility in that way. In fact, I expect they probably wouldn’t want to get closer than $3 million or so under the cap. Still, this leaves a good chunk of change for additional business.
The team has a vacancy on the NHL roster for at least one more forward, and perhaps more than one forward if Kole Lind is sent through waivers to the AHL or Joonas Donskoi is bought out or traded. On the blue line, the team could add another piece and waive Cale Fleury after camp, or stand pat.
Returning to my pre-free-agency team needs, I identified five NHL-level needs. Four of those needs have been addressed, at least in some form:
Top-nine LW: Andre Burakovsky signed
Top-nine RW: Not addressed
Top-four RD: Justin Schultz signed
backup goalie: Martin Jones signed
Depth center: Andrew Poturalski signed
So, the team could still use a winger that can score from the right side. Who fits the profile and Seattle’s remaining budget? Let’s run down a few options.
Evan Rodrigues. The former Penguin’s days are likely over in Pittsburgh given the cap crunch there. Rodrigues, 28, tallied 18 goals and 43 points in his breakout 2021-22 campaign. His underlying analytics are sound, and I liked what I saw in the few viewing opportunities I had last season. Evolving Hockey projects a three-year, $3 million deal for Rodrigues. If his ask comes down into this range, that contract is a quick and easy “yes” for me as (mock) Kraken general manager.
Jesse Puljujarvi. Puljujarvi is a restricted free agent qualified by Edmonton. But a trade remains likely here. I think he would be a strong compliment to the other members the Kraken top nine who play more of skill-oriented game. Puljujarvi’s ability to drive play as a power forward would be a boon for the Kraken. Evolving Hockey projects his AAV on a new contract above $4 million. Even if he hits that number, the Kraken can handle it with their remaining cap space.
Calle Jarnkrok. Old friend Jarnkrok struggled early on in his Kraken tenure for various reasons, but there was a long stretch last winter when he played like the best Kraken forward. Evolving Hockey projects a four-year, $4 million AAV deal. I would not encourage the Kraken to go to that number, but on a shorter term, modest AAV deal, I would welcome the reunion.
Instead the Kraken could target one of several intriguing left wingers that remain on the market with the plan of playing Burakovsky (or another player) on his off wing. Notable left wings remaining on the market include Dylan Strome (though he may be better at center), Sonny Milano, and Danton Heinen.
Alternatively, or in addition, the Kraken could use some of their remaining cap space to target another puck-moving defenseman. If, for example, RD John Klingberg could be signed to a two year, $5 million AAV contract because his high-end market did not materialize, I would be interested in that. I would also continue to entertain the prospect of bringing RD Ethan Bear back to Seattle in a trade with Carolina. With Adam Larsson and Justin Schultz ahead of him on the depth chart, Bear could take on low-stress third-pair minutes to start.
What did you think of day one of free agency? Anything you would like to see on day two? Let us know in the comments below or reach out to us on Twitter.
Before the opening bell of free agency, it was reported that Seattle was linked to goalie Martin Jones, and then quickly confirmed by some sources. The Kraken later confirmed the signing.
What is the deal?
Martin Jones signed a one-year deal with the Kraken worth $2 million.
Player profile
Age: 32 Birthdate; Jan. 10, 1990 Birthplace: North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Height: 6’4″ Weight: 190 lbs Catches: Left Experience: 396 games played in the NHL; 327 games played with the Sharks where he was the primary starter from 2015-2019.
Recent statistics
Seson
Team
Games Played
Goals Against Average
Save Percentage
2019-20
San Jose Sharks
41
3
0.896
2020-21
San Jose Sharks
34
3.28
0.896
2021-22
Philadelphia Flyers
35
3.42
0.900
What do the analytics say?
In 2021-22, Martin Joes saved -11.25 goals above expected, per Evolving Hockey, and -9.4 goals above expected, per MoneyPuck.
Chris Driedger (IR/expected back in February or March 2023)
With Chris Driedger starting the season on IR and with Coachella Valley starting play this year, the Kraken need to add (at least) two goaltenders that could hypothetically perform at the NHL level in order to fill out their NHL-AHL depth chart. Martin Jones would seem to fill one of those spots. Whether it is at the NHL level or AHL level remains to be seen, but the contract suggests it would be at the NHL level.
Seattle also announced it had signed Magnus Hellberg on Wednesday, who will surely be bound for the Firebirds.
Where do the Kraken go from here?
I identified five needs before the draft: (1) left wing, (2) right wing, (3) right defense, (4) backup goalie, (5) depth center. This checks box number 4. The Kraken have also addressed defense with right-shot blueliner Justin Schultz and a need on the wing with Andre Burakovksy. The Kraken’s focus will be on adding skaters in the remaining need areas.
Media reaction
Immediate reaction about the signing from media-types was less than enthusiastic about the signing. I would caution against jumping to any conclusions without knowing how everything fits together. Martin Jones is just one piece of the puzzle.
Jones, 32, has a .897 SV% over 172 games across the last four seasons.
It appears he is still considered a credible candidate for regular NHL work. https://t.co/3JrURksjLP
The Seattle Kraken prospects got a taste of game action Wednesday afternoon at the Kraken Community Iceplex, but the biggest moment happened immediately after.
Players were split into three sperate teams, and the one wearing light blue sweaters, which featured Shane Wright, was the winner of what was a three-on-three round robin tournament. Wright was the ultimate winner as Seattle general manager Ron Francis, moments after it was reported that he had signed Andre Burakovsky to a free-agent deal, came on the ice and announced that the Kraken were going to sign Wright to his three-year entry-level contract.
The rookie, who the Kraken selected with the fourth overall pick in last week’s NHL Draft, signed on the dotted line and then threw a fish into the crowd.
“I think [my fish throw] was all right,” Wright said after. “Hopefully, I’ll get some more practice in this year, and we can work on it a little, but it wasn’t terrible for my first time, I don’t think.”
Wright signing his first NHL contract is no surprise. It was expected that the team would look to sign him, and it’s likely that he’ll play in the league this season. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a meaningful moment for the 18-year-old.
“It’s just another step in my journey,” Wright said. “The first step is to get drafted and next step is to sign the contract, and then the next step is to play my first game and be a regular on the team. Huge honor for me and a really exciting moment for sure.”
After two days of nothing but drills, Wright was all smiles after getting a chance to go out and play a game. Plus, his team won.
“I enjoy practice and I enjoy drills and all that, but you love playing games,” Wright said. “You love competing, you love making plays out there and competing with your teammates and against them as well. So obviously it’s one thing to do drills, but it’s another thing playing games and competing is a lot of fun. Definitely happy that we did that today.”
Beniers dominates scrimmage
Matty Beniers was the only player on the ice who has played in the NHL, and it showed Wednesday. He was the best player by a good head and shoulder and had at least two goals and four assists – there was no official scoring.
While it’s not surprising, and he should be the best player on the ice, it was good to see just how much he dominated every shift he took. He scored early but also set up teammates with pinpoint and creative passes.
Wright looked commanding as well, and while he did not score a goal, he created chances all day. His highlight was a full-length, 100-foot stretch pass right to the stick of Luke Henman, who would score a goal.
Jagger Firkus has dangles
If he had scored a goal it would have been the play of the game, but Firkus, picked 35th overall by the Kraken in Montreal, got one of the biggest rounds of oohs and ahhhs from the crowd. First he slid the puck through a defender’s legs to create room. He picked the puck back up and tried to go between his legs for a shot on goal, only to be denied by goalie Niklas Kokko.
Jagger Firkus showed off his creativity on Wednesday. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Overall, Firkus was noticeable throughout the game in creating a number of scoring chances.
Tucker Robertson
Seattle fourth-round pick, Robertson, had a strong scrimmage with some strong moves to the net and scored a couple of goals. He scored 41 goals last season with the Ontario Hockey League’s Peterborough Petes.
Tucker Robertson has had a strong development camp. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
UPDATE: This signing was confirmed by the Seattle Kraken at 2:00 pm PT on July 13, 2022.
What is the deal?
Andre Burakovsky has reportedly agreed to sign a five-year deal with the Kraken worth $5.5 million AAV.
Player profile
Age: 27 Born:Feb. 9, 1995 Birthplace: Klagenfurt, Austria Nationality:Sweden/Austria Height: 6’3″ Weight: 201 lbs Shoots: Left
Recent statistics
Year
Team
GP
G
A
TP
PIM
Plus-minus
2019-20
Colorado Avalanche
58
20
25
45
22
11
2020-21
Colorado Avalanche
53
19
25
44
10
4
2021-22
Colorado Avalanche
80
22
39
61
18
12
What do the analytics say?
I have written about Andre Burakovsky’s analytics profile in the past, particularly as a comparable for Jared McCann. The offensive contributions he will bring may be similar to McCann, though the defense is not quite as strong.
The Kraken’s NHL left wing depth chart looks like this:
Jared McCann
Jaden Schwartz
Brandon Tanev
If slotted on the left side, Burakovsky would fall somewhere in the top-nine, likely on the second line. It is also possible he could factor into the top-nine on the right side, his off wing, depending on other moves. Our own John Barr identified Andre Burakovsky as a fit. Burakovsky was my number one forward target after Johnny Gaudreau. This has been my view for a while.
Where do the Kraken go from here?
I identified five needs before the draft: (1) left wing, (2) right wing, (3) right defense, (4) backup goalie, (5) depth center. This checks box number 1. The Kraken have also reportedly addressed defense with right-shot blueliner Justin Schultz and backup goalie with Martin Jones.
Shortly after the bell rang opening free agency, the Seattle Kraken reportedly signed right-shot defenseman Justin Schultz. There has not yet been an official announcement from the team.
What is the deal?
According to Elliotte Friedman, Schultz has signed a two-year deal, in the neighborhood of $3 million AAV.
UPDATE: The team confirmed that the AAV is $3 million at 3:17 pm on July 13, 2022.
Evolving Hockey projects Justin Schultz at approximately replacement level in 2022-23, but he has contributed positive value as a power play quarterback, which is a need for the Kraken.
The Kraken’s right-shot defense NHL depth chart looks like this:
Adam Larsson
Will Borgen
Cale Fleury (received qualifying offer)
The Kraken were lacking a top-four right-shot defenseman. It was a priority to add one this offseason, as we wrote about yesterday. With Schultz added to that mix, Will Borgen and Cale Fleury are left to compete for the third-pairing role. Schultz may not be an elite producer any longer, but there is a reasonable chance that he provides solid second-pairing production. The Kraken need more transition and passing skill on the blue line. These are Justin Schultz’s strengths.
This has been and will continue to be an extremely busy couple of weeks for the Seattle Kraken. They followed up an awesome draft by bringing all their prospects in for development camp, which remains underway. That camp coincides with the deadline for qualifying restricted free agents (Seattle opted not to offer contracts to Ryan Donato, Haydn Fleury, Daniel Sprong, or Dennis Cholowski). It also coincides with free agency opening on Wednesday.
With all this in mind, John, Andy, and Darren try to talk you off the ledge a bit about the players that are (likely) not being brought back by trying to help you understand the big picture of these decisions. An important piece of that is the many quality players that will be available in free agency, so they also help you prep for that.
Also on this episode, the guys will take a journey around the league to bring you up to speed on decision (trades, qualifying offers, etc.) that are being made around the league.
With Shane Wright on board, restricted free agent qualifying offer decisions made, and unrestricted free agency less than a day away, it is a good time to simulate the approach the Kraken may take to free agency. Let’s get to it.
What do the Kraken need?
The Kraken have repeatedly stated that the team’s goal is to compete for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Assuming this to be true, at a macro-level, the Kraken need to add goal scoring. John Barr’s research indicates that the Kraken need to add approximately 46 goals scored this coming year to be in a position to compete for the playoffs. This assumes a modest bounce back from Seattle’s goaltenders and consistent defensive play.
Looking at the NHL roster, I see four clear needs: a top-nine LW, a top-nine RW, a top-four RD, and a backup goalie. Beyond that, the Kraken could also potentially use a depth center (like Riley Sheahan).
1 – Left wing
The left wing depth chart is fairly clear: Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz, and Brandon Tanev are a solid group, but, after non-tendering Ryan Donato, another skater is needed.
2 – Right wing
The right wing depth chart in particular is fairly muddled. Jordan Eberle sits at the top. Shane Wright could factor into the mix on the wing should he earn a permanent spot in Seattle, but that is no sure thing. Joonas Donskoi and recently re-signed Karson Kuhlman could factor into the bottom-six, but neither is a sure thing given Donskoi’s poor 2021-22 season (and apparent skills mismatch to the Kraken system) and Kuhlman’s low salary. Kole Lind could also factor in here, though he may fit best as a fourth liner or extra skater at this stage. Perhaps one could argue that depth chart is full. But, as is, it is not good enough. And there is far too much uncertainty after Eberle. As I describe below, I imagine Donskoi off the roster in some way, but he could equally take a bottom-six role.
3 – Right defense
The right defenseman depth chart has veteran Adam Larsson at the top but no clear second-pair option. Will Borgen proved capable of third-pair minutes, but we would be surprised if the Kraken are willing to assign him a bigger role quite yet. Cale Fleury held his own, but is likely best fit in the sixth- or seventh-defender role. This leaves an opening for a top-four capable right-shot defender.
4 – Backup goalie
Chris Driedger is recovering ACL surgery and will not be an option for the Kraken until February or March at the earliest. Joey Daccord will receive the opportunity to compete for the backup role, but Ron Francis has indicated that the Kraken would like to bring in a veteran to compete here too. This is in addition to the goalies the Kraken will need to sign to fill out the Coachella Valley roster.
Identifying and bidding on players
I used analytics from Evolving Hockey, TopDownHockey, and Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic to determine a list of targets in the three skater “need” categories (i.e., we like players A-E to fill a top-nine left-wing role). Then I used insights from those analytics and my own lay scouting and “fit” judgments to arrange those players into a priority list for each need (i.e., approach player A before player B). I then used the analytics and modified for injury history to build a “max offer,” both in terms of years and term for each player (i.e., offer player A up to X dollars over X years).
To determine whether a free agent would accept my offer, I used Evolving Hockey’s contract predictor tool, which continues to be unsettlingly accurate. Acceptance or rejection of a proposed framework is based on the total cash value of the offer, as this is typically the most important factor to the player.
To Johnny or not to Johnny?
With that, it is time to get to the elephant in the room: Should the Kraken bid on Johnny Gaudreau? At first, my answer was “no.” In general, I’m not a fan of spending money in unrestricted free agency; so why go for the most expensive item at the auction? This is particularly true when you are (mock) managing a team that finished near the bottom of the standings.
As we approach free agency, two facts have led me to re-evaluate my gut reaction. First, Johnny Gaudreau falls into the category of a truly special player that rarely makes it to unrestricted free agency. He easily projects as a top-10 player in the league next year in the analytics I track and should remain a clear top-30 performer for at least the next several years. Even if his peak performance is behind him, players that produce like Gaudreau hold value into their mid-30’s. In short, Johnny Hockey is a star. And it’s almost impossible to overpay a star. Teams get in trouble when they throw too much money at the next tier of performers.
Second, Shane Wright’s presence on the roster—and his potential to provide top-six value while playing on an entry-level contract—frees the team to be aggressive in using its cap space to pursue one more top-six player in search of a playoff spot.
For these reasons, I’m now a “yes” on calling Johny Gaudreau’s agent to explore the potential for a fit in Seattle.
Step one: bid on a scoring left winger on day one of free agency
Free agency starts with a call to Johnny Gaudreau. In my projection below, the Kraken would offer enough money to get him signed, but this will probably be true of many teams. Gaudreau’s interest, or lack thereof, is a key inflection point. If he is signable, the Kraken may need to seek a value option on the right side or forego an acquisition there entirely. Gaudreau’s decision is important enough that at the end of this post I will ultimately provide two free agency scenarios: one with and one without Johnny Hockey.
I think Gaudreau will receive Evolving Hockey’s projected contract (of approximately seven years, $10.9 million AAV) from several teams. So it will come down to to Gaudreau’s preference. Personally, I do not think he would pick Seattle, all things equal. He and his wife are from the East Coast and are just starting a family. If he leaves Calgary, I think Philadelphia, New Jersey, or a few other Eastern Conference teams are more likely. To be competitive, I think the Kraken would need to be the highest offer. Accordingly, for the “Gaudreau scenario,” I will be using a seven-year, $11.75 million AAV contract. This deal checks in just above Artemi Panarin and just below Auston Matthews. But it still yields positive value based on my analytics study.
In the “no Johnny Gaudreau” scenario, I’d move onto negotiations with Andre Burakovsky. Based on Evolving Hockey’s numbers, it would very quickly become clear that Burakovsky can get more money elsewhere, which is too bad. In real life, part of me thinks Burakovsky’s market could be weakened by a mediocre postseason run that is fresh in the minds of NHL front offices. I call this getting “Tomas Tatar’d.”
Accepting the premise I have set up, however, I would then move onto negotiations with Dylan Strome and Mason Marchement. Strome could get done but would be a close negotiation, and a Marchment deal could come together quickly. For this reason, I’ll project a Marchment signing in the “no Johnny Gaudreau” scenario.
Step two: acquire a value right winger
It remains likely that Jesse Puljujarvi is ultimately traded from Edmonton. He would be a strong compliment to the smaller, skill-oriented players the Kraken currently deploy in their top-six forward group, particularly in the “Gaudreau” scenario. I think he could emerge as a key Valeri Nichushkin-lite contributor with the Kraken. I’d offer Seattle’s 2023 third-round pick or Toronto’s 2023 second-round pick, if necessary. The cap-strapped Oilers don’t seem like they have any better offers in hand. (Warren Foegle is another interesting player who could be squeezed out of Edmonton.)
For this exercise, I will assume that Edmonton is ultimately willing to accept this offer. If this trade were not possible, however, I’d prioritize signing Evan Rodrigues, who may be squeezed out of Pittsburgh.
In the “Johnny Gaudreau” scenario it may not be possible to sign one of those forwards. In that scenario I’d consider “over-spending” on a lower-end player like Nicolas Aube-Kubel. Or the Kraken could bring back Colin Blackwell.
Step three: acquire a defenseman who can play on the right side
The second major name at times linked to the Seattle Kraken is John Klingberg. My analytics projection has a high-end offer for him at three years, $4 million AAV. Given that Klingberg may achieve something closer to his Evolving Hockey projection of 6 years, $6.9 million AAV, I’m a strong “no” on being a serious competitor for Klingberg.
All of that said, I understand Klingberg’s fit with Seattle: He’s a right-handed, offensive play-driving defenseman with the ability to lead a first unit power play. Seattle needs all of these things. So, could I be convinced that something like four years, $5 million AAV could work? Perhaps. But I’m completely “out” on Klingberg at his Evolving Hockey projected contract. That could be a crippling mistake.
The list of free agent forwards is fairly deep, but the number of competent blueliners is much shorter, particularly on the right side. This renders another trade as the best option. As with Puljujarvi, Ethan Bear was tendered by Carolina, but it seems like a separation is ultimately likely. Seattle’s 2023 fourth-round pick could be enough to get it done. Rasmus Sandin is an alternative trade candidate who could get squeezed out of the picture in Toronto, but he’s a left shot and not as easy of a fit.
I’ll project that the trades do not get done. This may be because the Kraken prefer to avoid sending out draft assets for another RFA. Accordingly, I turn my attention to free agency, where the first target is Kelowna, British Columbia native Justin Schultz. He could bring some puck moving ability on the right side of a second pair. This deal comes together. Jan Rutta is another right shot defenseman who could be an alternative, but I prefer Schultz’s puck-moving profile.
Step four: sign a backup goaltender
I’ll keep this one simple. Jaroslav Halak could be a good fit. He played in Vancouver last year and provided solid production, with a .903 save percentage and approximately average goals saved above expected.
Other transactions: sign a depth center and look for a Donskoi taker
As mentioned above, I think Donskoi is a scheme mismatch in Seattle, and I would look for a taker if the Kraken are successful in adding to their right wing depth chart. I would be willing to retain some salary to facilitate a deal, but I would not be willing to attach a significant asset to Donskoi simply to clear his cap from the books. I’ll project that they find a trade partner willing to take Donskoi’s full salary with minimal other assets involved in the deal.
In terms of a depth center, I could see the team bringing back Riley Sheahan to play in Coachella Valley and a handful of games in the bottom-six. Alternatives could be Victor Rask or Curtis Lazar. Morgan Geekie needs to take a step forward this year or he could be displaced by one of these veterans in the event of a playoff push.
Recapping the “Johnny Gaudreau” scenario
Transactions
Sign UFA LW Johnny Gaudreau (seven years, $11.75 million AAV)
Sign UFA RW Nicolas Aube-Kubel (two years, $2 million AAV)
Trade away RW Joonas Donskoi
Sign UFA RD Justin Schultz (two years, $2.75 million AAV)
Sign UFA G Jaroslav Halak (one year, $1.5 million AAV)
Sign UFA C Riley Sheahan (one year, $950,000 AAV)
Cap chart (Capfriendly)
The team’s cap situation is a little tight, and particularly so if a Donskoi trade is impossible without salary retention. They could get some relief before the deadline if activating Chris Driedger allows the team to move Jaroslav Halak’s cap hit off the roster. But with contingency signings, it is very possible this team would end up needing to put Driedger on long-term injured reserve. Shane Wright plays on the right wing in his rookie season, learning to add a bit of sandpaper and tenacity to his game from Yanni Gourde.
Projected team performance (JFresh Hockey)
I used JFresh Hockey’s roster builder tool to then project this team’s performance. One note before diving in: Matty Beniers and Shane Wright do not have enough experience to be built into this system. In the projections below, I used Nico Hischier as a proxy for Matty Beniers. I used Calle Jarnkrok as a proxy for Shane Wright’s potential rookie production because Jarnkrok’s 2021 production was a close comparable to Elias Lindholm’s rookie campaign, and I think Elias Lindholm’s rookie season is a reasonable projection for Shane Wright’s first year.
This is a good team; probably a playoff team. Gaudreau solves much of the Kraken’s even-strength and power-play scoring issues. Signing Gaudreau, together with the other additions listed here, likely achieves John Barr’s target of adding 46 goals scored to this team.
Recapping the “no Gaudreau” scenario
Transactions
Sign UFA LW Mason Marchment (three years, $2.5 million AAV)
Trade for and sign RFA RW Jesse Puljujarvi (two years, $4.2 million AAV)
Trade away RW Joonas Donskoi
Sign UFA RD Justin Schultz (two years, $2.75 million AAV)
Sign UFA G Jaroslav Halak (one year, $1.5 million AAV)
Sign UFA C Riley Sheahan (one year, $950,000 AAV)
Cap chart (Capfriendly)
Here, again, Shane Wright is placed on the right wing. If sent down to the CHL, Lind would likely move into the lineup. Alternatively, Geekie could move to the wing with Sheahan drawing in on the fourth line. Ideally Puljujarvi could be signed for less on a bridge deal, but Evolving Hockey projects a deal above $4 million AAV.
Projected team performance (JFresh Hockey)
This team projects well, though not quite as well as the team with Gaudreau. It carries more flexibility into the future, but nonetheless has the look of a borderline playoff team. Again, 2021 Nico Hischier subs for the projected performance of 2022 Matty Beniers and 2021 Calle Jarnkrok subs for the projected performance of 2022 Shane Wright.
Ultimately, this version of the Kraken may not have added quite enough goal scoring to get all the way to the playoffs. I expect Shane Wright could deliver a net gain of 10 goals scored over Joonas Donskoi. If he is sent down to the CHL, though, this would be a wash. Puljujarvi scored 14 goals last year and Marchment scored 18 goals. All together, even an optimistic view would likely fall short of John Barr’s target for goal scoring. But this is a young, competitive team, with upside to be in the race at the trade deadline.
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