Kraken roundtable – potential trade and free agency targets (Part II of II)

by Curtis Isacke | May 11, 2022 | Kraken

In part I our Kraken roundtable discussion, we considered which restricted free agents will be back next season, as well as which players within the organization may make strides in 2022-23. In this second part, we make some wild predictions about who the Kraken might trade for and who they might target in free agency.

Do you anticipate the Kraken making any major trades in the offseason?

Darren Brown: Well, I wrote recently that I thought there was a chance Chris Driedger could be traded, due to Joey Daccord’s waiver exemption running out. GM Ron Francis more or less dispelled that during his end-of-season presser, though, implying that the team would bring all three of its goalies to training camp and risk putting Daccord on waivers if needed. So, a Driedger trade is probably out. 

Since – as Curtis mentioned in part I – I’m back to covering the Wild full time, I might as well throw it out that Minnesota is going to have to trade an important player or two this offseason. Kevin Fiala is an RFA and the Wild do not have enough space to re-sign him, so they will have to trade either him or somebody like Matt Dumba. I would gladly take either of those two players on the Kraken roster, and Seattle has plenty of cap space and a gazillion draft picks to offer up. The Wild can’t take on salary, so draft picks may be the return they’re seeking in a deal for either player. 

John Barr: It does not feel to me like the Kraken have enough bargaining chips in their existing talent pool to make any major trades this offseason. They might make some trades, but I doubt any of them will be “major.”

Andy Eide: The most likely time for a Kraken trade may be at the NHL Draft. Francis has made no secret he’d like to use the stockpile of picks he’s accumulated as trade assets. The problem is outside of that, he doesn’t have a great deal of trade bait when it comes to players. One thing he has is cap space, and if he can find a team looking to dump a player to free salary then maybe a trade is doable. You just wonder if second-round picks are attractive enough.

Unless he shocks us and trades a roster player, don’t expect any blockbusters coming. 

Seattle might be able to use those picks to move up in July’s draft and could use them to jump into the mid-to-late first round if the right partner is there. 

Curtis Isacke: I do expect the Kraken to target an offseason trade with a cap-strapped team for a top-nine capable forward or a top-four capable defender by leveraging their cap space and a second round pick or two. I’ll admit that the player I have thought the most about in this regard is skilled Maple Leafs winger William Nylander, but that’s quite a long shot.

I want to take a closer look at the cap situations of several teams, but a more realistic list of potential trade block players include guys like Jonathan Marchessault of the Golden Knights, Alex Killorn of the Lightning, or Jake Debrusk or Mike Reilly of the Bruins. None of those specific players stand out to me as obvious, must-adds at their current AAV. But sitting here today, I do expect a “major” trade in lieu of a true top-of-the-market free agent signing. More on that below.

Josh Horton: Curtis mentioned Jake Debrusk, and that makes a lot of sense to me. Debrusk, 25, requested a trade but is still relatively young and has been productive in Boston. Boston has held its position and hasn’t wavered in its asking price for Debrusk, but we’ll see if that changes at the NHL Draft and beyond. 

Generally, I’m curious to see how active Francis is in the trade market. The Kraken are in a unique situation by having a limited prospect pool and a wealth of draft picks in the next two seasons to fill it. But if a player is available at the right price, the Kraken possess the ammo to facilitate some significant deals with its cavalcade of second-round picks in 2022 and 2023. 

Generally, I don’t anticipate the Kraken to be too involved with the bigger fish who are rumored to be traded this offseason, like Patrick Kane, Mark Scheifele, and JT Miller. 

What do you think the free agent strategy will be for Ron Francis and company? Any specific free agents you think could be a good fit in Seattle? 

John: I said it on the podcast last week, but I anticipate the Kraken pursuing and hopefully landing one of the big free agents this offseason. Specifically Filip Forsberg, Johnny Gaudreau, or John Klingberg are the big three in this category. Even if they add one of those big-ticket free agents, they will still need to land some more depth scoring to really address the deficiency they have in that area. Bryan Rust, Nino Niederreiter, or Ondrej Palat could all fit that mold. 

Darren: Though John didn’t mention this above, he’s recently gotten me to come around to the idea that it’s too early to make huge splashes for star players. For the long-term health of the organization, it’s probably better to continue to strengthen the core and wait until that group is competitive. Once that’s done, then you try to land a big fish or two. 

However, there’s clearly some urgency for the Kraken to jumpstart their playoff chances, so with that, I’m fully on board the Filip Forsberg train. 

Curtis: I’ve gone back and forth in my thinking on how aggressive the team should be in free agency. Part of me says: embrace the “build” for one more season and put yourself in position to pick one more time near the top of the stacked 2023 entry draft while developing players like Matty Beniers, Ryker Evans, and the team’s 2022 first-round pick.

But I’ve settled on this: the team is just too good to be so bad again next year. Even setting aside a rebound from Philipp Grubauer, the talent on this current team projects to something closer to a .500 team than a repeat cellar dweller. So, on the one hand, the benefits of poor performance (a top 2023 draft pick) are unlikely to be there. And, on the other hand, this is precisely the type of team that could benefit the most from an infusion of talent, since added talent could be the tipping point into playoff contention.

The question is: How do you add? Realistically, I don’t expect the team to sign the true top-of-the-class players. Johnny Gaudreau would be a good fit, but I don’t expect him to choose Seattle–and his term and AAV would be problematic long term. Same for Filip Forsberg. Those two aside, I have my reservations about the value other perceived top-of-market players like Nazem Kadri and John Klingberg would deliver.

With all that said, I do expect the team to target two top-nine forwards, probably with an emphasis on players who could slot on the right side since the depth chart behind Jordan Eberle is relatively sparse. I’ll predict one of these players arrives via trade, as mentioned above. The other will arrive via free agency.

I like John’s prediction of Bryan Rust. His style is a strong fit for the way the Kraken play offense. I also like his current Penguins teammate Evan Rodrigues as a fit. Andre Burakovsky has played more on the left side, but if he’s attainable on a reasonable AAV and term – perhaps a bit north of Jared McCann’s contract – he’d be number one on my offseason big board. I also expect the team to add a bottom-four right-shot defenseman, perhaps to replace Haydn Fleury’s current position on the roster.

Andy: Going after top-end free agents is entertaining and has a certain fantasy sports aspect that makes it fun for fans to be all in on throwing money at players. But there’s a reason fans and media aren’t general managers, and Francis has to thread the needle here. He has money to spend, but loading up on free agency is a double-edged sword. Big-time free agents get rewarded for past performances and will want term to go with it. The trick is trying to determine if the short-term pump they bring will be worth carrying hard-to-move, high-end contracts in the future. 

Francis has said publicly on more than one occasion that he plans on being ‘aggressive’ in this summer’s free agency. Does that mean he goes after the Gaudreaus and Forsbergs out there? Don’t be surprised if Francis ends up landing one of those top targets and maybe a secondary player or two to fill in.

The Kraken roster is in need of offensive skill and finishers. The fastest way to add that is through free agency and Francis may be able to add those top guys while relying on the continuing development of Matty Beniers, his 2022 pick, and the Ryker Evans’ of the world to step up as the roster ages long term.

Like the ancient knight suggests at the end of the horrible Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade**, ‘choose wisely’. 

**Editor’s note: Andy is incorrect. Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade is fantastic.

Josh: John Klingberg is my flag plant for the splashy free agent that is most likely to land in Seattle. The Kraken are in need of a right-shot defenseman and Klingberg, 30, would bring that, plus some offensive creativity to a blue line that could use it. Klingberg was productive this past season with 47 points and 8.47 individual expected goals (iXG), his highest in the past four seasons. 

However, like any big-ticket free agent, Klingberg will expect a long-term deal, and the Kraken will be saddled with an albatross contract if his play swiftly declines into his mid-to-late 30’s. 

It’s a risk the Kraken will have to assess this offseason with free agency. If Francis and company believe the team underperformed to expectations last year, and perhaps could contend next season if goaltending turns around, there’s no reason why Seattle shouldn’t swing for the top-flight free agents like Klingberg, Gaudreau, or Forsberg. 

Seattle should be an attractive free agent destination with its close proximity to the Canadian border — especially for British Columbia natives wanting to play near home, and with Washington State not having state income tax. Attracting and wooing free agents shouldn’t be an issue. 

But with the 2023 NHL Draft class projecting to be an all-time great crop of players, is a splashy offseason worth it? My gut feeling is no and that Seattle needs to grow with its current young core of players before layering in superstar contracts. 

How aggressive Seattle is with free agency this offseason should indicate how the organization feels about the current state of the franchise. 

Kraken roundtable – a discussion on potential offseason roster moves (Part I of II)

by Curtis Isacke | May 9, 2022 | Kraken

The Kraken players have cleaned out their lockers. Darren Brown is back to covering the Wild full time (not really). John Barr is watching the NHL playoffs for us. Andy Eide is finally getting some sleep (but not so much sleep that it prevents your favorite WHL correspondent from keeping tabs on the Thunderbirds).

In a year of firsts, we’re officially into the first “normal” offseason for the Seattle Kraken. What a ride it’s been. Thank you all for following along.

The offseason certainly gives the Sound Of Hockey team space to explore other topics in the hockey world, and we intend to do a little more of that. But I promise that this will not turn into a blog (entirely) about my six-year-old’s learn-to-skate lessons, which are going great, so thanks for asking. We have a litany of Kraken offseason topics that we just cannot wait to talk, write, and connect with you all about.

We thought we’d kick it off with a roundtable discussion on the state of the Kraken roster; which restricted free agents should come back and which marginal roster players might play a more significant role next season?

Later this week we’ll return with part II of this roundtable discussion, which will cover the work the Kraken could do in unrestricted free agency and on the trade market.

Which Kraken restricted free agents (RFA’s) will be coming back/qualified for next year?

Curtis Isacke: Generally speaking, a player is a restricted free agent if his previous contract has expired, but he is not yet 27 years old at the beginning of free agency and does not have seven accrued seasons of service time. An accrued season is one of at least 40 games at the NHL level for a skater or 30 games for a goaltender.

On June 25 the team must decide whether to extend qualifying offers to its restricted free agents. Of course, this decision should start with whether the team likes the player, but not all decisions are created equal. A few things to keep in mind:

• When a team extends a qualifying offer, it has to be a one-year contract at somewhere between 100 percent and 120 percent of the player’s previous year base salary (with certain minimum thresholds based on how much the player was earning previously).

• The qualifying offer can be a two-way contract, with a lower salary for play at the AHL level, if the player has played fewer than 60 NHL games in the previous year or 180 NHL games in the previous three years.

• If the qualifying offer is rejected, the team maintains exclusive rights to negotiate a different contract with the player (absent an offer sheet from another team, which frankly will not happen for any of the Kraken players here).

• Restricted free agents at a threshold of experience gain arbitration rights whereby the player can request that a neutral third party determine the average annual value (AAV) of a new contract. The team can also trigger arbitration with a restricted free agent.

• For 2022-23, if the player’s contract is equal to or less than $1.125 million, the player can be waived or directly assigned off the NHL roster to the AHL without any NHL salary cap consequence.

Here are the Kraken’s restricted free agents:

Darren Brown: Thanks for setting all this up, Curtis. I personally don’t see much debate in qualifying all the RFA’s, except maybe Haydn Fleury, who has a bigger salary than the rest. AHL Coachella Valley needs to build out a team fast. So, keep all these guys in the system to create competition in training camp, then as some of them get pushed off the NHL roster, waive them and–assuming they clear waivers–let them help the Firebirds. I think Daniel Sprong showed enough offensive skill to keep him around, Ryan Donato and Karson Kuhlman proved that they belong in the Kraken lineup regularly, and Kole Lind and Morgan Geekie still have upside. 

The reason I wonder about H. Fleury is because of what a rough season he had. He played just 36 games and was either health bombed or injured for the other 46.  

Andy Eide: I agree, there is a strong case to be made for bringing everyone back. Donato had a career year, played up and down the lineup, and so far loves Seattle. He’s the biggest no-doubter of the group and while its very likely all of these guys get their qualifying offer, there are a couple questions.

Haydn Fleury probably will get an offer, but he had a tough season and was healthy scratched most nights. He had some tough games where he didn’t manage the puck well, and when he finally got a chance to play regularly at the end of the year, he immediately was injured. Rough timing, but he’s a guy who makes the most of all the RFA’s and could appear to be expendable on a crowded blue line. 

When Seattle acquired Sprong at the NHL Trade Deadline it felt like he was a veteran body for the Kraken to finish out the season with. He played well, though, and showed that he did indeed have a heavy shot and scored six goals in 16 games. His underlying numbers are decent, but offensively he’s a bit one dimensional. He didn’t have any assists with Seattle and hasn’t been much of a playmaker throughout his career (46 career goals to 24 assists). Not a deal breaker by any stretch but one tiny flag that may get the Kraken thinking. All that being said, it would be a bit surprising if he didn’t get an offer.

John Barr: Of the forward group, Lind, Donato, Geekie, and Kuhlman seem like locks to be qualified and can probably be penciled onto the Kraken roster next year. I think Sprong is the wild card here. He had some moments down the stretch and has some goal scoring capabilities that the team lacked. He does have arbitration rights and can probably get more money than simply a qualifying offer, so the Kraken may pass on qualifying him. I can see Alex True and Carsen Twarynski getting qualified with the plan to start them with the AHL team in Coachella Valley. 

On defense, the Kraken will likely qualify Dennis Cholowski and Cale Fleury. These are low-risk decisions for the Kraken since their contracts will be close to the league minimum. Haydn Fleury is the tricky one. He does belong in the NHL but could never get his footing this year and might benefit from a change of scenery. 

Josh Horton: I agree with the rest of the Sound Of Hockey triumvirate in that the majority of the Kraken’s pending restricted free agents will re-sign with the team. The organization still needs depth, and it would behoove Ron Francis and company to see what they have in players like Sprong, Geekie, and Lind. Donato proved to be a useful player who can contribute up and down the lineup. 

The trickiest one is Haydn Fleury, as was mentioned above. My gut feeling is he’ll be tendered a contract as well. Unless Ryker Evans is ready to contribute at the NHL level right away — or the Kraken make a big splash acquisition to the blue line this offseason — Fleury should be given a chance to prove to Dave Hakstol he’s worthy of staying on the ice and out of the press box as a healthy scratch. 

Curtis: With the elder Fleury, I envision a situation where he declines the qualifying offer, and after invoking arbitration, ultimately gets awarded something like $1.75 million. This is well above the salary threshold that could be buried in the AHL. Perhaps the Kraken deem this sum too expensive for a player the coaching staff has treated as the seventh or sometimes eighth defenseman this year. Personally, I like Fleury as a fourth or fifth defenseman, but I don’t think Dave Hakstol agrees. I’ll predict a non-tender here.

I’ll also recklessly predict the team negotiates two-year contracts with Cale Fleury and Ryan Donato. I could imagine the team non-tendering Daniel Sprong, but I wouldn’t really see the logic in that from an asset management perspective, since there is little downside to tendering him. 

Far too much consensus on that first offseason question. Let’s see if we can do better…

Setting aside Matty Beniers, is there another Kraken reserve list player that spent a majority of the 2021-22 season outside Seattle that you expect to be a 2022-23 Kraken regular or at least make significant contributions?

Andy: Of the forwards who played in the AHL this year, Kole Lind seems like he has the best shot of making the NHL roster in 2022-23. Lind was recalled late in the year, performed well, and this could be the year he becomes an NHL regular. 

Defensively, Ryker Evans will get a legitimate shot at making the team in training camp. He’s inexperienced but is an older draft prospect, turning 21 this year. Evans was noticeable at last fall’s training camp and very well might have ended up in the AHL if the Kraken weren’t splitting their affiliation. 

He played with poise, confidence, and has the offensive skill Seattle’s defense could use. There aren’t a lot of obvious open slots on defense, and that may end up costing him at the outset. While he may start in the AHL, it’s reasonable to expect he sees NHL games this season.

Additionally, while not a player already in the system, the team’s upcoming first-round draft pick may end up in the NHL. That is harder to project, unless they end up with the top pick and select Shane Wright, but Francis said he feels there is more than one NHL-ready prospect at the top of the draft.

Darren: I’ll join Andy with what I believe is the most obvious choice here in Evans. Francis said he will get every opportunity to make the team out of camp, and I believe that was genuine. Evans turned a lot of heads in Seattle’s first training camp, then went on to have an outstanding almost-point-per-game season with the WHL’s Regina Pats. 

Curtis: I’m going a bit off the board here and will call out recent signee Peetro Seppälä as someone to watch. He’s a 21-year-old defenseman who tallied 8 goals and 21 assists, and was a plus-18, in 57 games for KooKoo in Finland’s Liiga.

By one analytical measure, Liiga is the sixth strongest professional league in the world, ranking above the AHL in terms of competition level. Accordingly, his back-of-the-napkin NHL point equivalency projections compare similarly to Dennis Cholowski’s NHL projections – despite being two-and-a-half years younger than Cholowski – and favorably to Cale Fleury’s projections. Seppälä’s offensive upside makes him an intriguing bottom-of-the-depth-chart complement to the current group. 

Unless Seppälä simply dominates training camp, the young Finn will likely begin the year in Coachella Valley because he is waiver-exempt. But Seppälä has demonstrated a skill level that should draw him into the mix for blue line minutes if he can translate his game state-side.

John: Kole Lind seems primed to take a step. He had a good year with the Charlotte Checkers netting 17 goals and 18 assists over 46 games with the AHL club. When he was called up for the Kraken he seemed to get more and more comfortable playing at the NHL level as the season progressed.  

Josh: Dennis Cholowski intrigues me quite a bit. The 24-year-old has 18 points in 31 games for AHL Charlotte this season, but has struggled to stick in the NHL with Detroit, Seattle, and Washington — the Capitals claimed him after Seattle initially waived him in October. People also forget that he has 115 games of NHL experience.

I don’t have grand expectations for Cholowski, but the offensive upside is something to monitor.