I’ve been thinking about two questions making the rounds this week; will the Kraken fill the open spot on the active roster? And will the Kraken add a piece at the deadline? These are multi-faceted questions, but they relate in part to the specialty of this Kraken Contracts series: the collective bargaining agreement and, specifically, the calculation of a team’s cap space.
Before getting back to these two top-line questions later in the post, though, we have to start at the beginning. How much salary cap space does the team have, and how is it calculated? Let’s start there.
Remember, if you have any questions you would like to see addressed in future posts, feel free to reach out on twitter (@deepseahockey or @sound_hockey) or in the comments below.
How much salary cap space does Seattle have? (And why will the answer be different tomorrow?)
For the 2022-23 season, the salary cap (or “team payroll range upper limit” as it’s called in the CBA) is $82,500,000.
A team’s contracts count against the salary cap based on the average annual value (“AAV”) of the contract.
Example. Presume a player signs a two-year standard player contract with Seattle that actually pays him a total salary of $2 million in year one and $3 million in year two. The contract would nonetheless carry a cap hit of $2.5 million each season because the contract has a $2.5 million AAV.
From here it should be straight forward to calculate a team’s available cap space (or “payroll room” in the CBA), right? Unfortunately, no. There are a few steps involved.
The first inflection point is what day is it on the calendar? The rules for calculating cap space are different at various times. Today, I will focus on how cap space is determined during the regular season.
During the season, there are two key considerations: First, which obligations count toward the salary cap? And, second, how do we account for a player whose contract counts towards a team’s salary cap for less than the entire season? I will address each.
All player contracts count against the cap if the player is on the active roster or on injured reserve. (As we discussed last time, a long-term injury may allow a team to exceed the salary cap, but the injured player’s contract AAV still counts.) Other sums like retained salary, buy outs, or earned bonuses (as we also discussed last time) will count against the cap too.
Additionally, a portion of the contracts for players who have been loaned to another professional league (almost always the AHL) also counts against the cap. What portion? The amount by which the player’s AAV exceeds $375,000 plus the NHL minimum salary, which is $750,000 for the 2022-23 season.
Example No. 1. Assume Seattle waives Cale Fleury and his $750,000 AAV contract, Fleury clears waivers, and is assigned to the AHL. In that circumstance Fleury’s contract would no longer count against the cap because it is below the $1,125,000 threshold and can be fully “buried” in the AHL.
Example No. 2. Now presume Seattle waives Morgan Geekie and his $1,400,000 AAV cap hit, Geekie clears waivers, and goes to Coachella Valley. Geekie’s contract would continue to count $275,000 toward to the cap, which is the excess above $1,125,000.
Example No. 3. Finally, assume Seattle waives Geekie to try to get him to the AHL, but another NHL team claims him. In that scenario, Geekie’s AAV would come off Seattle’s books and go onto the books of the claiming team.
On the first day of the regular season, when counting each contract and other obligations required to be counted against the salary cap as described above, the team must be compliant with the salary cap.
Moving forward from there, how is a team’s available cap space calculated? And how do we account for the fact that a player may only play a partial season with a team, spend some time in the AHL at a reduced cap hit, or variety of other circumstances?
Assume there is a team that plays the first two months of the season with a 22-man active roster totaling $80,000,000 AAV in contracts. And then on Dec. 15, the team signs a free agent to a one-year, $2,500,000 AAV contract. The team had unused cap space for a couple months, but, as of Dec. 15, it now has $82,500,000 AAV in contracts on the books. Does the unused cap space from the first two months just disappear? The answer is no.
The NHL accounts for this inevitable roster shuffling by tabulating a team’s available cap space daily during the season. Huh? Let me explain how this works.
A regular season is 186 days long. The 2022-23 season spans Oct. 11, 2022, to April 14, 2023. Each day, at 5:00 pm ET, 1/186th of each team contract (or other obligation) that counts against the cap is totaled. On day one of the season, this total must be equal or less than 1/186th of the $82,500,000 salary cap (except for LTIR scenarios). To the extent the team is under the cap on day one, the difference accumulates as available “cap space.” That total is then available to be used on day two, along with another 1/186th of the salary cap. If not all used that day, it continues to accumulate. The team remains cap compliant if it does not exceed its available cap space on any given day.
This is all a bit confusing, so let’s take a look at how this works with a few examples.
Example No. 1. Presume on day one of the 2022-23 season, a team has a 22-man active roster with $80,000,000 AAV in cap obligations. The team is cap compliant because the 2022-23 salary cap is $82,500,000. 1/186th of the team’s $80,000,000 aggregate AAV—$430,107.53—is totaled at the end of the day. The difference between that amount and 1/186th of the full salary cap—$443,548.39—accumulates as of the end of the day. The team has accumulated $13,440.86 in excess cap space. On day two the team will be cap compliant if their salary obligations total less than $456,989.25. That is the sum of another 1/186th of the full salary cap—$443,548.39—plus the accumulated carryover cap space from the previous day—$13,440.86. That cap space will continue to accrue day-over-day until it is used later in the season, if at all. What would that look like?
Example No. 2. Same setup as Example No.1. On day two of the regular season the team adds a 23rd player to the roster with a $3,000,000 AAV. The team’s cap commitments for day two now equal 1/186th of $83,000,000. This is $446,236.60. Subtract from the team’s total day two cap space—$456,989.25—the team’s cap charge for day two and the team comes out of day two with $10,752.65 in excess cap space. The team has less accrued unused cap space left over than day one, but that makes sense because the team is now carrying players on its active roster worth $83,000,000 AAV. This is over the full season salary cap of $82,500,000. The team won’t be able to keep the new player on the roster for long, or it will need to make another move. How does this look at the trade deadline?
Example No. 3. Same setup as Example No. 1, except the team maintains the same 22-man roster every single day until the March 3, 2023, trade deadline—a total of 143 days. The team accrues $13,440.86 in excess cap space daily for a total of $1,922,042.56 in accrued cap space. At the trade deadline, just 43 days remain in the season. At that point, the team could, in theory, acquire a 23rd player with more than a $10,500,000 AAV contract. How so?
The team has accumulated cap space so far because it is in aggregate AAV $2,500,000 under the cap. If the team added a $2,500,000 million AAV contract at the deadline, it would stop accumulating additional cap space every day moving forward, but it would still have the extra $1,922,042.56 in cap space sitting there, unused. Divide that unused cap space by the number of regular season days remaining after the trade deadline (43) and you get $44,698.66. This is the amount the team could eat into that accrued, unused cap space every day and still be cap complaint on day 186. $44,698.66 per day equates to a contract with a full season AAV of $8,313,951. Add to that $2,500,000, and you get $10,813,951. This number is the AAV of the contract(s) this hypothetical team could add at the trade deadline.
Applying this (admittedly unintuitive) accounting method, the Kraken have an aggregate AAV of $81,064,166 currently. This is below the $82,500,000 cap, so the team is accumulating excess unused cap space each day.
But the team’s aggregate AAV has not been static throughout the season. The team has made myriad roster moves, each impacting the daily salary cap calculations and how much excess cap has accumulated on this day or that day. My best estimate is, as of Jan. 12, 2023, before the 5:00 pm ET deadline, the Kraken have approximately $467,838 in accrued, unused cap space.
Matty Beniers skating to retreive the puck. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
What does this mean for the roster? And what does it mean for what the team can do at the trade deadline? Let’s get into that now.
Why haven’t the Kraken added a 23rd player to the active roster?
NHL teams are allowed to have 23 players on the active roster at any given time. Before the World Junior Championship, the Kraken loaned Shane Wright to the Canadian U20 Team. This moved Wright off the team’s active roster and created an opening. Ever since, the team has maintained just 22 players on the active roster. For a time, one might have assumed the team was just holding Wright’s spot for him, but with Seattle returning Wright to the OHL after the WJC, that spot has remained conspicuously vacant. Why?
The short answer is that circumstances have not forced Seattle to add any players. The Kraken are not dealing with any short-term injuries at the moment, nor are there any players that need to be benched for performance reasons. As it stands, the Kraken still have an extra forward and an extra defenseman, and they haven’t needed any additional flexibility.
The longer answer gets us back into daily salary cap accrual, and the contracts of Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen. As we discussed last week, the team likely wants to keep $925,000 in cap space open at the end of the season in order to pay Matty Beniers’s contract bonuses without carrying the overage as a deduction from next year’s cap.
If the Kraken made no moves at all and maintained the current 22-man active roster from now through the end of the season, Seattle would end with a season-end cap charge of approximately $81,347,544. Applying Beniers’s (likely) earned bonuses, the Kraken would be at $82,272,544. This leaves the Kraken just $227,456 below the cap. In other words, the Kraken project to have $227,456 that they could allocate to the daily salary cap charges of a 23rd player.
The NHL minimum salary for the 2022-23 season is $750,000 AAV. For example, John Hayden is signed to a contract worth $750,000 AAV at the NHL level. Since he has been loaned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds all season, his contract has not counted against Seattle’s salary cap at all. But it would begin to count if Hayden were recalled. (John Hayden is actually on a so-called “two-way” contract that pays him less at the AHL level. We can get into the details on two-way contracts another time, but for today’s purpose suffice it to say Hayden has not counted against Seattle’s cap.)
For each day a contract worth $750,000 AAV is on the NHL roster it would count $4,031.26 against the salary cap—i.e. 1/186th of $750,000. Without going above $227,456, the Kraken could have a minimum-salary player in the 23rd spot on the roster for up to 56 days. Yet, as of Jan. 12, 2023, 93 days remain in the regular season.
This starts to shed light on why the Kraken have not filled the 23rd roster spot right now. They might “need” a 23rd player later if injuries arise. Once fewer than 56 days remain in the season (after Feb. 17, 2023), the team will be less hesitant to fill the final roster spot. But, over the next 37 days, the Kraken are likely to play “wait-and-see” and hope to avoid filling it unless necessary.
You might protest, as the Kraken had a full 23-man roster until recently; what changed? First, as the season has unfolded, it has become increasingly clear the hypothetical possibility of Beniers receiving $925,000 in bonuses will be a reality. And, second, the team jumped at the opportunity to add Eeli Tolvanen off waivers. That was a good move on the ice. But the unexpected upgrade pushed the Kraken ever closer to the salary cap. Replacing Karson Kuhlman’s contract ($825,000 AAV) with Eeli Tolvanen’s contract ($1,450,000 AAV) put an additional $625,000 AAV on the cap. With the minimum salary being $750,000, this delta essentially eliminated the opening for an extra minimum-salary 23rd player for a while.
Eeli Tolvanen waits for a face-off. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
What can the Kraken add at the trade deadline?
How much contract money the Kraken can add at the trade deadline (March 3, 2023) will depend on a number of variables, including whether the Kraken fill the 23rd roster spot in the interim.
Assuming that the Kraken make no roster moves of any cap consequence between now and the trade deadline, the Kraken could acquire a contract with a $1,140,000 AAV while protecting the necessary cap space for Beniers’s bonuses.
That is… not a lot.
However, the Kraken can create additional space in a variety ways. For example, presume Joonas Donskoi is healthy enough to return from injured reserve by the time of the trade deadline, and the Kraken waive him that day for the purpose of assigning him to the AHL. If he clears waivers, $1,125,000 AAV of his contract would come off the books, as explained above. Totaled with the team’s other cap space, Seattle could then add a player with a $2,265,000 AAV contract.
Another way to create space could be to trade a roster player. When a player is traded (or claimed off waivers), the player’s contract comes off Seattle’s books moving forward. For example, if the team traded a player at the deadline with a $2,000,000 AAV, it could acquire back a player with a $3,140,000 AAV when adding in the team’s accrued cap space.
Also, it should be noted that a trading team can “retain” up to 50 percent of a player’s salary (and cap hit) in a trade transaction. This expands the scope of potential trade targets available to Seattle. For example, without making any other moves, Seattle could acquire a $2,000,000 AAV player at the deadline if the trading team agreed to retain 50 percent of the player’s salary. That said, these types of trades are typically more costly from an assets perspective.
Finally, I should mention that the type of contract Seattle could acquire changes drastically if the team decided not to protect cap space for Beniers’s bonuses. In that case, without any roster moves in the interim, Seattle could acquire a $5,141,000 AAV contract at the deadline. I doubt that Seattle would go this way, but this approach would open a wider range of upgrades for the team.
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Have contract or rules-related questions? Reach out on twitter (@deepseahockey or @sound_hockey) or in the comments below. I’d like to do a mailbag-style post soon. Thanks for reading.
What is “long-term injured reserve?” What is an “entry-level contract?” Who needs to go through waivers? And, heck, what are waivers and what purpose do they serve in the first place?
I have found that the rules relating to NHL contracts, rosters, and the salary cap are opaque not only to ardent fans but those that cover the league professionally. Why?
Sometimes it is because the governing rule is unique to the NHL. For example, are performance incentives allowed in player contracts? If you’re in the MLB and NFL: yes. If you’re in the NHL: in most circumstances, no.
Sometimes it is because the rule is obscure in the Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”). For example, if a team loses a player on waivers while attempting to get him to the AHL, but then the claiming team waives him and the original team claims him back, does the original team have to put that player on waivers yet again to get him to the AHL? Depends on if you are the only team claiming him the second time around.
And sometimes it is because the specific governing rule is not actually spelled out in the CBA and can be inferred only in its absence or from cobbling together separate provisions. For example, if a team’s player is suspended, the team gets relief in the form of an extra roster spot to replace that player, right? Actually, no. But that never shows up in black and white. It just is not mentioned as an exception to the 23-man roster limit. (As it happens, this is another rule starkly different from the rule in the NFL, MLB, or NBA.) This is why Jamie Oleksiak was not replaced when he was recently suspended three games for elbowing Washington’s Alex Alexeyev.
If you have any questions you would like to see addressed in future posts, feel free to reach out on twitter (@deepseahockey or @sound_hockey) or in the comments below.
Why haven’t the Kraken placed Chris Driedger or Joonas Donskoi on long-term injured reserve? (And what does it have to do with Matty Beniers being named an All-Star?)
The short answer to the long-term injured reserve (LTIR) question is there has been no reason compelling them to use it, except briefly with Philipp Grubauer earlier this season. The longer answer has to do with multi-season cap management. You may have heard someone say, when considering a player acquisition, “the Kraken don’t want to go into LTIR.” Why? And what does it have to do with Matty Beniers and him being named to the all-star team? Let’s dive in.
A team may place a player on “injured reserve” if the player is reasonably expected to be out of the lineup for seven calendar days due to an injury or illness. Once a player is placed on injured reserve the team obtains an exemption for the player from the 23-man roster limit and, therefore, can replace the unavailable player. Both Chris Driedger and Joonas Donskoi are on injured reserve currently.
“Long-term injured reserve”—a moniker not actually used in the CBA—is different. It is a designation that a team can use on a player when a physician determines the player has an injury or illness that will keep him out of the lineup for at least 10 games and 24 calendar days. In addition to the roster relief afforded by any “injured reserve” designation, when a team designates a player for LTIR, the team is replace the injured player(s) with one or more players of the same aggregate cap hit of the injured player(s), even if this means that the team exceeds the salary cap in doing so.
So, if the Seattle Kraken placed Chris Driedger on LTIR, the team could bring in a player with an identical $3.5 million cap hit and exceed the salary cap in doing so. The same is true for Joonas Donskoi and his $3.9 million cap hit. So, in theory, the Kraken could go out at the NHL Trade Deadline and add a contract or contracts worth $7.4 million in cap dollars and still be compliant. This additional space for injury replacements sometimes referred to as a team’s “LTIR pool.”
Sounds pretty good, right? You could fit in a pretty good player with that amount of additional cap room. Recently waived Jakub Vrana is an example. Likely-to-be-traded Bo Horvat is another one.
So, why haven’t the Kraken utilized this flexibility afforded by LTIR? I see three reasons. First, and most significantly, it is probable the Kraken have not seen an opportunity that justifies doing it. Presume Bruins GM Don Sweeney called Kraken GM Ron Francis tomorrow and offered him F David Pastrnak (and his $6.67 million AAV contract) for a seventh-round draft pick, but only if Francis answered “yes” on the spot without making other trades first. In that outlandish hypothetical, you could bet Francis would say “yes,” use the LTIR flexibility, explain the extra cash commitment to ownership, and figure everything else out later.
But, unrealistic scenarios aside, the Kraken have been able to put their preferred, full team on the ice so far this season. With one brief exception earlier in the year, there has not been any reason for the team to use the salary cap relief afforded by LTIR. And without the need for the cap relief, there is no reason to designate a player for LTIR as opposed to a standard “injured reserve” designation.
The second reason to avoid a big-money acquisition to fill in for the injured players is that the cap relief does not last for the remainder of the season—it lasts only as long as the player’s injury does. Chris Driedger, for example, is likely to return late this season. Joonas Donskoi’s status is less clear, but it is hypothetically possible he could return at some point as well.
Sticking with Driedger, the team would need to be cap compliant when he and his $3.5 million cap hit returns. To do that the team would either need to waive a player it knows another team would claim—therefore subtracting the player’s entire remaining cap hit—or waive a series of players to stash them in the AHL and get portions of their salaries off the books. Teams can get themselves in real trouble in these scenarios and leave themselves shorthanded.
Matty Beniers waits for a face-off. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The third reason is Matty Beniers’s contract. Huh? Let me explain. Every player’s first NHL contract is a so-called “entry-level contract” (ELC). Under the CBA and the subsequent 2020 Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”), an entry-level contract is limited to a maximum amount of base compensation. For players drafted in 2021 (Beniers’s draft year), annual compensation is limited to $925,000 at most. For players drafted in 2022 (Shane Wright’s draft year), annual compensation is limited to $950,000.
But there is an important asterisk on this limit. Recall that I said performance bonuses are not now allowed in “most circumstances.” Entry-level contracts are one of three scenarios where performance bonuses are allowed. And Beniers’s contract has bonuses that, according to Cap Friendly, are worth up to $925,000 for 2022-23. (Shane Wright’s contract has bonuses too, but I doubt those are likely to be relevant.)
Under the CBA and MOU, for players drafted in 2021 (Beniers’s draft year), any ELC bonuses up $850,000 are so-called “Schedule A” bonuses. Bonuses above that threshold are “Schedule B” bonuses. So, Beniers has $850,000 in Schedule A bonuses and $75,000 in Schedule B bonuses.
“Schedule A” bonuses reward Beniers (a forward) with a bonus of a specified amount if he achieves any of the following thresholds (up to a maximum of four separate thresholds achieved):
20 goals
35 assists
60 points
Top six in time on ice among forwards (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)
Top three in +/- among forwards on team (minimum 42 games)
0.73 points per game (minimum 42 games)
End-of-Season All-Rookie Team
All-Star Selection
All-Star MVP
In other words, even if Beniers achieves all nine thresholds this season, he still would only receive four of the bonuses. I will presume (but do not know) that these bonuses are split evenly in his contract so that each threshold met would pay Beniers a bonus of $212,500. If he achieves the maximum four bonueses, he gets the full $850,000.
As it stands today, Beniers is projecting to eclipse five of these categories, with a sixth (End-of-Season All-Rookie Team) seeming likely.
20 goals ✅
35 assists ❌ (currently on a 34-assist pace)
60 points ✅
Top six in TOI among F (in total and/or per game) on team (min 42 games) ✅
Top three in +/- among F on team (min 42 games) ❌
0.73 points per game (min 42 games) ✅
End-of-Season All-Rookie Team❓
All-Star Selection ✅
All-Star MVP❓
All of this means the Kraken currently project to pay Beniers an additional $850,000 at the end of the year in Schedule A bonsues.
“Schedule B” bonuses may be awarded to the player if he achieves one or more of the following league-level thresholds:
For forwards: Top ten in NHL in goals, assists, points, or points per game (min 42 GP) among forwards
Win any of the following trophies: Hart, Selke, Richard, Conn Smythe, Norris, Lady Bing, Calder.
Year-end 1st or 2nd team All-Star
Of particular relevance, note that players are eligible to receive a bonus if they finish in the top-3 of Calder voting under the CBA. We know that Beniers can earn up to $75,000 in Schedule B bonuses this year, but we do know the the negotiated amounts he can earn for any specific accomplishment. For today’s purposes, I will presume Beniers accomplishing any one of the foregoing (including top-3 in Calder voting) would earn him the $75,000 Schedule B bonus. Since a top-3 Calder finish seems likely, I will project that Beniers earns this sum too.
The total ($925,000) is not currently accounted for on the team’s salary cap. (Getting really technical, the bonuses do count, but the cap is increased accordingly by a so-called “bonus cushion.” This is relevant only if the team has large bonuses on its books. For our purposes today, easiest to think about it as not on the cap, particularly since publicly reported cap figures, such as the number from CapFriendly, do not include it.)
If the team pays the bonus, though, it hits the cap. The accounting would then happen in one of two ways. The amount either (a) comes out of the team’s available year-end cap space, or (b) if the team does not have enough year-end cap space, any surplus comes off the team’s salary cap space in the next season. So, if Beniers earns his full $925,000 bonus, but the team ends with just $800,000 in cap space, the team’s 2023-24 cap would be reduced by $125,000.
According to CapFriendly, as of today, the Kraken project to have $1,167,181 in cap space at the end of the year. This is based on the daily salary accruals to date and the daily accruals moving forward of the players currently on the roster. That’s just enough to pay Beniers’s bonuses, with extra wiggle room for some temporary AHL call ups.
OK, but what does any of this have to do with LTIR? Well, unused cap space is accrued on a daily basis. If the team goes into LTIR, by definition it is going over the cap and is not accruing any unused cap space. (Unused “LTIR pool” space does not accrue; it disappears when and if unused.)
So, if the Kraken spent the majority or all of the season using LTIR for extra salary space, the team would end the year at or near zero dollars in unused cap space. If (and when) Beniers then earns incentives, that money would come off the Kraken’s cap for next year. The team surely views itself on an upward trajectory and is likely loath to sacrifice cap space next year to benefit this year’s team.
In sum, why hasn’t Seattle used the cap relief afforded by LTIR? Like I said, there has been no cause to do it. And also—in a roundabout way—it is because of Matty Beniers.
Did the contractual implications of keeping Shane Wright factor into sending him back to the OHL?
The morning after scoring a goal en route to winning the World Junior Championship (on his his birthday), the Kraken announced that Shane Wright would be returned to his junior team, the Kingston Frontenacs. Did his contract factor into this decision? Let’s dive in.
If you’ve paid attention to Shane Wright’s status with the Seattle Kraken this year, you have likely heard about two somewhat obscure NHL rules. The first arises from the NHL-CHL Transfer Agreement. This agreement allows 18- or 19-year-old CHL players to leave their junior teams to play in the NHL, but restricts those CHL players from leaving and subsequently being loaned from their NHL club to a minor-league team. This means Shane Wright cannot leave his junior team to play with the Coachella Valley Firebirds this season. (As we have seen, a two-week conditioning assignment in the AHL is a one-time exception to this rule.) Honestly, this probably would be the ideal situation for Wright, but it was simply not on the table.
Second, you have also likely heard that 10 games played in the NHL is an important threshold to make a decision on whether or not Wright should be returned to his junior team. There is actually no “deadline” to return Wright to the CHL under the NHL-CHL Transfer Agreement. He could play 60 games and be returned (in theory).
The 10-game threshold has to do with Wright’s entry-level contract under the CBA. Wright can play up to nine games in the NHL without using the first year of his three-year entry-level deal. If he plays fewer than 10 games, the three-year deal simply “slides” to the next season. In other words, instead of extending through 2024-25, Wright’s contract would keep him under contract through 2025-26. For both the team and the player, this is significant because, as mentioned above, entry-level contracts are limited in total compensation. After that contract expires, the team and the player are left to negotiate a new deal in restricted free agency, and the player can earn more.
Wright had played in eight games. In theory, the Kraken could have put him into one more game before “burning” a year on his entry-level contract. Obviously, they did not do that, opting instead for the clean transition after the World Junior Championship.
Shane Wright playing in a game for the Seattle Kraken. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Equally important, and less frequently discussed, is the threshold of 40 games on the active roster. If Wright had been on Seattle’s 23-man roster for 40 games this season, the season would count as an “accrued” season toward unrestricted free agency under the CBA. An NHL player becomes an unrestricted free agent with the expiration of a contract after the player is 27 years old or has accrued seven seasons of service, whichever comes sooner.
For many players, this means they reach unrestricted free agency at or after the player is 27 years old. But, for some players who break into the NHL at a young age, there is the chance to reach free agency sooner. Wright could have been in this category if he got credit for an accrued season as an 18-year-old (or next year, as a 19-year-old, for that matter).
Counting the Kraken games while Wright was on his conditioning assignment but not the games during his loan to Team Canada at the World Junior Championship, Wright had been on Seattle’s active roster for 25 games. This left an additional 14 games after Wright’s return before the season would count as an “accrued” season. This was an additional deadline I was watching had Wright stayed with Seattle after the World Junior Championship but his development stagnated.
So, was any of this decisive of Wright’s status after the World Junior Championship? I do not think so. The paramount concern for the Kraken is Wright’s on-ice development. Whether that meant keeping the player with the Kraken or sending him back to his junior team, the CBA rules did not outweigh the on ice considerations. Contract issues become relevant only in the truly marginal case.
Personally, I was starting to lean toward returning Wright to his junior team. After watching him at the NHL level and at the World Junior Championship I did not see a clear path to Wright being a markedly superior player to those already in Seattle’s bottom-six by the end of the year. I don’t fault the Kraken for evaluating him for as long as possible. But, given the state of the NHL roster, I wanted to see Wright get 40-to-50 more junior games and then check in on him next camp. I suppose ideally this would happen with a good CHL team primed for a playoff push. There are some rumblingsthat could happen.
The Kraken appear to have reached the same conclusion. It has an incidental long-term contractual benefit for the team, but I do not think that was the primary factor.
[Author’s Note: The analysis of Beniers’s bonuses was corrected to account for the fact that Schedule A bonuses are capped at $850,000 for 2021 draftees. Only draftees from 2022 or later, including Shane Wright, may earn up to $1,000,000 in Schedule A bonuses, as this post originally indicated.]
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Do you have CBA, contract, or rules-related questions? Remember to reach out to us on twitter or in the comments below.
Let’s go outside, shall we? The news was made official Monday that the next Winter Classic will be played at T-Mobile Park between the Seattle Kraken and the Vegas Golden Knights on New Year’s Day, 2024.
“Outdoor hockey is at the essence of our game and the way many of our players grew up playing,” said Kraken general manager Ron Francis via press release. “We are thrilled to have the chance to showcase this in Seattle.”
Putting it in Seattle and featuring the league’s two newest teams will certainly bring a fresh look to the tentpole event. The Winter Classic has garnered big-time national interest since Pittsburgh and Buffalo first played an unforgettable game at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Jan. 1, 2008. But the NHL has reached a point where all of its more “historic” U.S.-based franchises have played in the Winter Classic multiple times, and the most compelling and historic venues across the nation have been used.
In fact, the announcement came just prior to the 2023 Discover Winter Classic, being played between the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins. Those teams have now combined to appear in the event six times, while the venue being used—Fenway Park—already hosted the outdoor game in 2010.
A fresh look is needed, and Seattle is the perfect next stop.
“We are honored that the NHL has selected the Kraken, in just our second season, to host this amazing event at the home of our friends, the Mariners,” said Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke. “Over 40,000 fans will witness the beauty and grace of our wonderful game in a venue that showcases the Puget Sound surrounded by the Cascade and Olympic Mountains.”
It’s an enormous get for the Kraken franchise, which—in 2023-24—will be playing in just its third season. This will surely expand interest in the team both locally and nationally and give it a huge stage to show off the exciting brand the organization has worked so hard to build.
The venue
While it would be more visually stunning to host the 2024 Winter Classic at the University of Washington’s Husky Stadium, T-Mobile Park was always the only viable option for the event in Seattle. Rain is one of the worst things that can happen for an outdoor hockey game, and it so happens the Puget Sound area gets plenty of it in the winter. That effectively ruled out Husky Stadium and Lumen Field, which do not have retractable roofs.
But T-Mobile Park, with its umbrella-style retractable roof, can close and shield the playing surface from precipitation, while staying open on the sides to still give those in attendance the feel of being at an outdoor game.
The beloved stadium, home of the Seattle Mariners, remains one of the more scenic ballparks in Major League Baseball. It will provide a unique backdrop for one of hockey’s largest annual spectacles.
Jersey prediction
When Seattle launched its Reverse Retro jerseys earlier this season, we heard from a credible source within the Kraken organization that the team was intentionally holding off on creating a Seattle Metropolitans-themed jersey. The source told us they wanted to keep that in their back pocket for a larger event, specifically calling out the Winter Classic.
So, although nothing is set in stone on this piece, feel free to start designing your Metropolitans concepts now.
Our reaction
This is incredible news for the Kraken and for the NHL. The Winter Classic has been a windfall for the league and every team that has gotten to participate over its 14-year history, and 2024 will be no different.
Vegas is also the perfect opponent choice. There seems to be a rivalry brewing between the Golden Knights—the team that burst onto the scene in 2017-18 and ran all the way to the Stanley Cup Final—and the Kraken, who have been answering constant questions about why they haven’t had a similar start to their franchise history. Both teams will benefit from being on this picturesque and widely watched stage.
And selfishly, we can’t wait to experience the pageantry that comes with an event like this, right here in our own backyard. The Winter Classic has become a staple for hockey fans around the world, and all eyes will be on Seattle when 2024 comes around.
As Boston’s players arrived at Fenway Park Monday, they turned heads by walking in wearing old-timey Red Sox uniforms. Previously, we’ve seen costume themes from “Peaky Blinders”-type outfits to beach garb in below-zero temps. Images like that are what make the event so special, and our wheels are already turning for how Kraken players will dress when they arrive to T-Mobile Park in early 2024.
When a team is struggling, there usually is a rock-bottom moment that it has to hit before it can get back to finding success. Our hope here at Sound Of Hockey is that Friday’s 7-2 spanking by Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers was that moment for the Seattle Kraken, who are 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and are now out of a playoff spot.
Trying to get themselves going back in the right direction, the Kraken went back to work Saturday at Kraken Community Iceplex with some apparent personnel and tactical changes in the works.
Line shuffling
Coach Dave Hakstol threw his forward lines in a blender during Friday’s game, and they were mixed up again at practice on Saturday.
“We shuffled a lot of things [Friday] that we likely won’t start with [Sunday], but we wanted to put a couple different combinations together,” Hakstol said. “Nothing drastic, but we shifted some wingers.”
Here’s what we saw at KCI:
Andre Burakovsky // Matty Beniers // Jordan Eberle Jared McCann // Alex Wennberg // Jaden Schwartz Eeli Tolvanen // Yanni Gourde // Oliver Bjorkstrand Brandon Tanev // Morgan Geekie // Daniel Sprong Ryan Donato
The most interesting change is certainly Eeli Tolvanen on a regular line rush with Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand, while Ryan Donato was rotating in and out.
Tolvanen has remained a healthy scratch for the Kraken every game since being claimed off waivers from Nashville on Dec. 12. The reason Hakstol hasn’t gotten him in yet is because all of the other forward candidates to be a healthy scratch—guys like Donato, Daniel Sprong, and Morgan Geekie—have been impactful, despite Seattle’s struggles.
If Donato ends up coming out Sunday against the Islanders to give Tolvanen a chance, that doesn’t seem particularly fair for a player who has five goals and six points in his last seven games. But, somebody has to sit if Tolvanen is going to go in, and it does feel like high time to give the newcomer a shot.
Jared McCann says the changes are all about doing things to help the team find consistency. “We’ll have one good game, and then the next game, next two games will be bad, right? So, we gotta find some consistency, and sometimes you gotta shake the lines up.”
New approach to the penalty kill
Throughout this season, Seattle has stuck with a very aggressive wedge-plus-one penalty kill formation. In simple terms, the wedge plus one is made up of three players in a triangle around the front of the net, with the fourth player pressuring the puck high in the zone. It’s an aggressive approach, because the “plus one” player pressuring is trying to intercept a pass and create an offensive opportunity. If that player over-pursues, or if a rotation is missed, it creates vulnerabilities and seams for the opposing power play.
Plainly, the approach hasn’t worked, especially recently, and at a 67.9 percent success rate, Seattle’s PK has sunk to 31st in the NHL.
Saturday, the Kraken were practicing a more conservative box formation, which is played almost like a zone defense. Penalty killers form a four-man square, with the two defenders covering from the crease out to about the hashmarks, and the two forwards covering anything higher than that, depending on where the puck is in the zone. The goal of the box is to keep the puck to the perimeter, deflect passes through the middle, and collapse around the netminder when it goes to the inside.
Looks like the #SeaKraken may be changing up their PK formation to a more traditional four-man box.
“Every game, you have to make small adjustments,” said Jamie Oleksiak. “I think obviously our PK hasn’t been going the way we want it to, and we’re just trying some things to get on the right page.”
We really like this change and actually called for it recently on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. If you do the same thing for long enough, and it continuously doesn’t work, then eventually you need to change it up.
If nothing else, this formation change should give the PK a temporary boost while opposing teams look for ways to exploit it.
What’s been going wrong?
Compared to the early stages of the season, the mood in the dressing room has been more serious among Kraken players in the last couple weeks as losses have piled up. Hakstol has preached getting back to the hard-nosed relentless style that we’ve come to expect from this team, and the players have largely echoed that sentiment.
The Kraken coach admitted Saturday that the team has diverged from its gameplan in part because Seattle was previously winning games, despite not always sticking to its traditional style. “When we look over the past six weeks, there’s some games where we got away with it for lack of a better term. We were able to, offensively, get ourselves through games and come away with two points. And that’s just not reality.”
Said Oleksiak, “We got skilled guys, but I don’t think we’re going to out-skill every team in the league, and I think [Friday] was an example of that. You can’t play their style of hockey, which is going to be trading chance for chance and trying to play the transition game or whatnot.”
Meanwhile, the Kraken have had some awful starts to games lately, with Friday’s opening minutes serving as a shining example. “I think our starts have been terrible the last couple of weeks,” said Jared McCann. “We’ve given up goals in the first couple minutes of games multiple times, leaving our goalies out to dry a couple of times as well. We just got to get back to the way we were playing.”
Getting back on track
So, how do the Kraken get back on the right track?
The team’s players offered a few suggestions Saturday, and although Seattle hasn’t shown it on the ice, the group knows it needs to get back to a relentless 60-minute effort that relies on structure and patience to win games.
“I think we just haven’t played as much to our structure, and then we’ve been getting out competed a little bit,” said Will Borgen. “So, minor fixes we can adjust to and get back to our old ways of how we were playing at the beginning of the year when we were on our little winning stretches.”
Oleksiak said returning to a suffocating forecheck is also important. He said that as a defenseman, life gets much harder when you have forwards barreling down on you when you go back to retrieve pucks. “I think our strengths are— we got speed, we got skill, but we’re at our best when we’re a five-man unit, and we’re playing honest hockey, we’re finishing checks, we’re hard on the forecheck.”
The good news is, even as things have unraveled for Seattle over the past month, nobody seems to be panicking. “Some guys are upset, but that’s part of it,” said Borgen. “You play an 82-game season, so you’re gonna have ups and downs.”
As for Hakstol, he sees it as an opportunity for the team to grow from this hard stretch.
“Everybody’s been through it before,” Hakstol said. “But you know, you have to take something and make it a valuable part of your season. It’s painful as hell, so if you can make it of value, then it becomes an important part of the season.”
It’s almost comical to imagine that an 18-year-old playing in his eighth career NHL game, running up against a fellow 18-year-old playing in his 20th career NHL game, could be a storyline that dominates the hockey world. But that is what we’re going to get for the next 36 hours or so. It has been confirmed that Seattle Kraken No. 4 overall pick, Shane Wright, will be in the lineup Tuesday against the No. 1 overall pick, Juraj Slafkovsky, and the Montreal Canadiens.
If it weren’t for how the 2022 NHL Entry Draft played out, this would not be a particularly notable storyline. It draws attention because everybody who is anybody with an opinion on the draft assumed for the longest time that Wright would end up as that No. 1 pick and begin his career with the Habs. Instead, he slipped all the way down to No. 4, and as Kraken director of amateur scouting Robert Kron said, “Christmas came early” for Seattle.
Since obtaining exceptional status to join the OHL early in 2019, Wright had been tagged as the consensus top pick. Once Montreal won the NHL Draft Lottery, pundits far and wide started penciling him onto the Canadiens roster for years to come.
Yet, in the days and weeks leading up to the draft, the winds started to shift. It became less of a foregone conclusion that Wright would be selected first overall, as so many had been predicting for so long. Lo and behold, Wright’s name was not called first by Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes. Instead, it was Slafkovsky who hustled onto the stage at Bell Centre and donned the Montreal bleu, blanc, et rouge.
Knowing the context of the next two picks, it was unsurprising to see New Jersey take defenseman Simon Nemec at No. 2 and only slightly surprising to see Arizona select Logan Cooley at No. 3. When the Kraken went on the clock, general manager Ron Francis wasted no time in proudly announcing that Seattle would take Wright at No. 4.
A lot was made in the days that followed the draft of how disappointed Wright must have been and how he gave the Montreal draft table a hard look from the stage.
Wright has since dispelled the theory that he was intentionally staring anyone down, and contrary to popular wisdom, he has displayed nothing but positivity about his situation since arriving in Seattle.
Now, Wright will get his first chance to show Montreal that it made the wrong choice.
Wright is back from the AHL
Wright has been in an odd spot during the early stages of his first pro season. Too good to return to the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs, but not quite developed enough to crack Seattle’s roster full time, he’s been stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Because of the transfer rules between the CHL and the NHL and because of his age, Wright is not eligible to spend this season with the AHL’s Coachella Valley Firebirds. Truth be told, we believe the AHL would be the perfect place for him right now, as he would be able to play every night and get plenty of minutes on the top line. Instead, Wright spent the first two months of the season mostly scratched by the Kraken. During that time, he did get good, hard work in with the team’s coaches and players, helping him adjust to the speed of the best hockey league in the world.
The healthy scratches ended up affording Wright a unique opportunity to get some of that AHL experience he so sorely needed. Thanks to a loophole in the rules, by scratching him five games in a row, Seattle was allowed to assign Wright to the Firebirds on a two-week conditioning stint.
Wright performed well with Coachella Valley, scoring four goals in five games and adding a shootout goal. Kraken coach Dave Hakstol liked what he saw as well but cautioned against reading too much into the offensive success.
“You got to be careful to over-analyze everything,” Hakstol said. “Really nice to be able to see him play some minutes. Nice to see him have— he had some early success, in terms of the offensive side, scoring a couple goals. Those are all real positives.”
Now, Wright’s conditioning stint is over, and he returned to Kraken practice Monday.
Slafkovsky has had a good start
The situation for Slafkovsky has been quite different. Though Montreal has been punching above its weight to get itself narrowly above .500, it is a team that is focused on developing its young players for the future with no real aspirations of contending this season. That focus on development has allowed coach Martin St. Louis to be patient with Slafkovsky, keeping him in key roles in the lineup and building him up to as many as 14 minutes of ice time per game.
Playing on a line with veterans Sean Monahan and Josh Anderson, Slafkovsky has started to produce offensively. He now has four goals and three assists, including a point in each of his last two games.
Physically much larger than Wright and having already played against men in the Finnish Liiga, we are not surprised to see Slafkovsky transitioning to the NHL faster, though we still believe Wright has the highest upside of anyone in the 2022 draft.
As for what’s happening on the other side, Wright isn’t too worried about what Slafkovsky is doing for Montreal. “Two different situations with what’s going on,” Wright said. “I’m really more focused on myself and my game and what I’m doing here and what I want to bring to the team here.”
A challenging development road for Wright
Wright has been forced out of the NHL lineup mostly by circumstance. Seattle is proving itself to be a contender and has always maintained its goal this season is to make the playoffs. So, how could Hakstol continue to send him out night after night if Wright wasn’t giving the Kraken the best chance to win?
It’s a tough spot for the coach and the player, but the Kraken got creative and found a way to get Wright some additional playing time in the AHL. It will be worth watching to see if that extra time has helped build Wright up to being NHL ready.
Through the first couple months of the season, Hakstol said the Kraken have been happy with Wright’s approach but recognized that every player’s journey is different. “I’ve been through this with many young players, players that go on to be great players. Every player is different in their trajectory and their pathway and how they’re going to get there.”
Whether the short stint with Coachella Valley did enough to make Wright more effective at the NHL level remains to be seen, but Wright believes it helped him in the short term. “I definitely gained a lot of confidence down there,” Wright said. “It was nice to be able to play a lot of high minutes, get a lot of touches, and play the puck as well, and just kind of play my game. You know, be myself and regain that confidence in myself and my abilities and hopefully bring that back to Seattle.”
Wright will likely only get limited, fourth-line playing time again Tuesday, but it sure will be fun to see him on the ice next to the guy that knocked him out of the top spot in the 2022 draft.
Monday Musings is a collection of random thoughts and observations about the last week of activity from the hockey world with an emphasis on the Kraken and other happenings around the Puget Sound hockey community.
Kraken thoughts
The Kraken went 2-1-0 for the week and sit comfortably in second place in the Pacific Division. The boys continue to bank those points in pursuit of the playoffs. Their current record of 15-6-3 is putting them about on pace for a 113-point season. There is and should be a sense of optimism around this team right now, but this week has raised a couple yellow flags.
The Good
The Kraken’s thrilling 3-2 win against the Washington Capitals on Thursday was an epic. The boys showed some resilience in coming back from a two-goal deficit that included a tying goal by Yanni Gourde with less than three minutes left in regulation. The icing on the cake was a game-winning goal by Matty Beniers just seven seconds into overtime.
After a pedestrian first period by the Kraken, they pretty much dominated the rest of the game with Philipp Grubauer coming up big when they needed him. We have seen some great games at Climate Pledge Arena, but I will put this one toward the top.
The Bad
The great thing about this team this year is you go into every game anticipating a win. At the very least, you expect them to be competitive and play a close game deep into the third. When that doesn’t happen, it feels like a letdown. The Kraken looked competitive in Saturday night’s game against the Florida Panthers, but a 5-1 loss at home can make you feel like you just got your teeth kicked in. Even the best teams in the league take it on the chin from time to time so let’s not overreact here. It is just a loss, and it is also ok to be upset about it.
Sometimes the toughest thing for me about a Kraken loss is the wait for the next game. I want to see them redeem themselves as soon as possible. Tuesday night cannot come soon enough.
The Ugly
You are allowed to win ugly. Tuesday night’s 9-8 overtime win against the Kings might have been a lot of fun for fans, but it is about as ugly of a win as you can get. The goaltending was sketchy at best, but there was poor defensive play all over the ice that night. If you have not watched the condensed replay of the game, do yourself a solid and give it a viewing.
Regardless of your feeling about that game, the Kraken walked away with two points in the standings, and as Darren Brown said on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, “It is better to win ugly than lose pretty.”
Goalie interference
At the Kraken game on Saturday night, I was sitting next to someone I did not know. He seemed like a new fan with plenty of passion. During the coach’s challenge of the first goal, he was adamant that it would get overturned. He asked me what I thought, and I told him flat out that I had no idea and it I would not be surprised either way. The goal would get confirmed, which led to a bench penalty against the Kraken, and the Panthers scored again on the subsequent power play.
If the outcome of the goaltender interference challenge is so variable, why challenge? Darren did an excellent job at covering the mindset of Hakstol in the challenge in his first takeaway from the game.
From an analytical perspective, I look at it as a math problem. Let us assume there is literally a 50/50 chance of getting the goal reversed. That will mean there is also a 50/50 chance you are assessed a penalty and will go on a penalty kill. If your penalty kill is killing penalties at a rate of .750 or so, you will more than likely kill that penalty off and there really is no harm. That is massively oversimplifying the analytical view, but in my perspective, that exercise should be part of the consideration.
Penalty kill woes
The Kraken penalty kill has been stinking as of late. Here is a look at how the team has performed by game so far, with the size and number on the circle representing the number of times the team was shorthanded in that game.
Part of the recent drop could be related to Morgan Geekie being out of the lineup, and another part could just be the ebb and flow during the season. Another aspect of penalty kills could be they are putting themselves shorthanded with more penalties this year.
That is true, but across the league, they are not the biggest offenders.
Regardless, the penalty kill has been bad. Geekie should be coming back, and I expect the team to make some adjustments sooner rather than later. In the meantime, let us continue to monitor for some improvement.
Other Kraken musings:
After the Kraken lost their first three overtime games of the season, Thursday night’s thrilling win against the Capitals marked their fourth overtime win in a row. They have yet to play in a game that went to a shoutout.
Florida’s win on Saturday night was their first point ever against the Kraken.
For those of you that attended or viewed my presentation at SEAHAC over the weekend: all three of the Kraken goals against the Capitals on Thursday night were ‘High-Danger’ goals, and the Kings had over 72 percent of the shot attempts in the third period.
I think the team misses Geekie right now. He is an integral part of the penalty kill and has become a bit of a faceoff specialist as well. Geekie led the team in faceoff percentage during November.
Shane Wright’s conditioning assignment with the Coachella Valley Firebirds is now over. I believe the Kraken hope to get him in the lineup at least once before deciding on loaning him to Team Canada for the World Junior Championship.
Tuesday night against Montreal would be a fitting time for Wright to draw in, but it will largely come down to Geekie’s status. The penalty kill needs Geekie. If he is not ready to play Tuesday, Wright should play.
This all-Kraken panel was fun to hear. It featured general manager Ron Francis, strength and conditioning coach Nate Brookreson, amateur scout Chris MacDonald, and video coach Tim Ohashi. Give it a watch.
After the 2019 SEAHAC conference, I wanted to create a meetup-type community of Seattle-based folks interested in hockey analytics. After attending the 2022 SEAHAC, I am convinced I need to make this happen. Would love to hear what other individuals think about the idea.
Alex Wennberg appreciation bullet. He flies a bit under the radar, but I have loved his gameplay this season. We do not talk about him nearly enough. That’s all.
Matty Beniers (SEA) – Three goals in three games for Matty, including the thrilling overtime winner on Thursday night.
On the docket
Montreal Canadiens – Tuesday, Dec. 5, at Climate Pledge Arena
Montreal is having a better than expected season but still faces an uphill battle to get in the playoffs. The Habs will be playing the Kraken on the second night of back-to-backs, but this will be a battle.
Canadiens Current Record: 12-11-1
Players to watch:
Kirby Dach – After being traded to Montreal, the 21-year-old center is having a solid season and is currently third on the team in points. Dach played a few years for the Saskatoon Blades before going to the Blackhawks. Cole Caufield – Like Dach, Caufield was selected in the first round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Caufield is known for his small size but big shot. He is currently tied for the team lead in goals with 13.
Washington Capitals – Friday, Dec. 9, at Capital One Arena
The Caps will have the loss to the Kraken fresh in their memory and will be looking for redemption. The team has been hammered with injuries this season, but beating Alex Ovechkin and company is never an easy task.
Capitals Current Record: 10-12-4
Players to watch:
Nic Dowd – I did not call him out last week, but I did notice him in the game against the Kraken on Thursday. Dowd was born in Huntsville, Ala., and played one year of junior hockey for the Wenatchee Wild in central Washington. He plays an important role for the Capitals. Dylan Strome – Speaking of noticing someone, I literally did not notice Strome on Thursday night against the Kraken. He is second on the team in points and is a pretty good playmaker out there.
Florida Panthers – Sunday, Dec. 11, at FLA Live Arena
These guys again. The Panthers game on Sunday kicks off a bit of a gauntlet of a schedule for the Kraken. Hopefully they can get some redemption of their own to start this stretch on a good foot.
Panthers Current Record: 12-9-4
Players to watch:
Carter Verhaeghe – With two goals against the Kraken last week, it might be a good idea to keep an eye on him in this one. He leads the Panthers with 14 goals on the season. Matthew Tkachuk – He was a pest on Saturday night, and I imagine he will be a pest on Sunday. He is also a really good player.
Chart of the week
Skeptics of the Seattle Kraken have been pointing to the shooting percentage as not sustainable, thinking the Kraken will return to earth after such a hot start. There is some room to be skeptical on the sustainability of the shooting percentage, but someone must lead the league in shooting, and as one former pro athlete in Seattle once said, “Why not us?”.
As always, thanks for reading, and I love the engagement and discussion we have in the comments section. If there is a topic you want me to dig into, feel free to leave in the comments I will aim to address it next week.
