Monday Musings is a collection of random thoughts and observations about the last week of activity from the hockey world with an emphasis on the Kraken and other happenings around the Puget Sound hockey community.
Kraken thoughts
On the surface, a 1-2-1 week does not sound like a great week. The games on Monday and Tuesday of last week felt like an ambush and account for the two losses. On Monday, the Kraken faced the Tampa Bay Lightning at home less than 36 hours after they returned from a two-week seven-game road trip. Right after that game they would immediately jump on a plane for a road game in Edmonton the following day.
It was a tough scenario that ultimately ended with two regulation losses. Both games featured a healthy amount of “compete” from the boys, but they looked tired at times. Coming up with a win or even a point would have been nice, but just chalk it up to a challenging schedule.
Thursday night, the Kraken dominated the New Jersey Devils, but the Devils stuck around and forced overtime with an extra skater on the ice. That just prolonged the inevitable with Andre Burakovsky burying the game winner just 70 seconds into the extra frame. Then Saturday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche was a bit of a slugfest that ended in a 2-1 shootout loss.
The last week of games could have been better, but the Kraken are 7-2-1 over their last 10 and are now sitting, by points percentage, in first place in the Pacific Division.
Injury bug
One of the Kraken’s strengths this season has been their health. Going into last week, Seattle was one of three teams to only suit up 23 different skaters this season. For context, Colorado, Toronto, and Columbus have each used over 30 different skaters this season. The Kraken have been remarkably healthy.
Unfortunately, we started to see some health issues pop up this week. About halfway through the Edmonton game on Tuesday, Justin Schultz took an innocuous-looking hit halfway through the second period, but he left immediately after and did not return the rest of the game. Schultz has not played in the two games since the Edmonton game. Then, in somewhat of a surprise, Andre Burakovsky was out of the lineup on Saturday night against his former team just two days after scoring the overtime game winner against the Devils.
Schultz and Burakovsky joined Jaden Schwartz who has not played since Jan. 12. All three of those guys have been significant contributors to the Kraken’s success this season and will be critical for the long-term outlook of this team. It should be noted that none of the three have been officially placed on injured reserve so maybe we should not be overly concerned here.
The All-Star break is just three Kraken games away, and with extra recovery days on the horizon, this might be the best time for minor injuries to hit.
Strength in the Pacific?
As well as the Kraken have been playing, it is important to point out that Edmonton and Calgary have also been winning. It is great to celebrate the recent success, but the Kraken cannot lift their foot off the pedal. There are teams doing everything they can to get back in the playoff hunt.
Right now, 95 points is the projected cutoff for making the playoffs. If the Kraken were to play .500 hockey the rest of the season, they would have 95 points exactly.
Other Kraken musings:
Sunday was the Kraken’s second annual Super Skills Showcase. Anyone who attended knew exactly what it was about… the kids. It was so amazing to see how many young fans were able to attend, and it certainly seemed like there were more activities for the kids before the event this season.
The events of the Super Skills Showcase were fun, but I enjoyed the puck juggling event last year and would have really enjoyed seeing a Ruff-Ruff Relay. Oh, well. I guess seeing Cheddar McCann was pretty cool.
John Hayden suited up for the Kraken on Saturday night to play his first NHL game of the season. He played under nine minutes but had a golden opportunity to score a go-ahead goal in the third period on a two-on-one opportunity. He shot it wide, but that would have been quite the fun moment for Hayden who has 241 NHL games in his career.
Hayden was reassigned to Coachella Valley on Sunday, but with three Kraken games over four days, do not be surprised to see him called back up.
Speaking of Coachella Valley, the Kraken’s AHL affiliate is now 27-6-3 and has the best record in the AHL.
Firebirds captain Max McCormick was named the AHL’s Player of the Week after notching four goals and four assists in three games, including a hat trick on Saturday.
One challenging area for the Kraken this season is the faceoff circle. The Kraken have the third worst faceoff-win percentage in the league. I have mentioned him before, but Morgan Geekie’s hidden value is what he brings to the faceoff circle. He is the only right-shot center on the team which enables coach Dave Hakstol to deploy Geekie regularly when the puck is being dropped on his strong faceoff side.
He might not make the score sheet every night, but I love watching Yanni Gourde play. He is the heart and soul of this team.
Add Ryan Donato to the list of Kraken players that will likely have a career high in goals scored this season. He has three goals in the last two games and is just five goals away from that career mark.
This will require a deeper dive, but both Kraken goalies are playing well right now. Since Dec. 23, Philipp Grubauer’s save percentage is .914 and Martin Jones’s is .910. The Kraken will need both goalies to play well to continue the team’s success this season.
Speaking of goalies, Chris Driedger has been skating at Kraken Community Iceplex for some time now. I have been getting a lot of questions about what the team does when he comes back from injured reserve. The short answer is, I do not know. I expect him to still be a couple weeks away from seeing any kind of game action, but when he is ready, Seattle will more than likely put him in a conditioning stint in the AHL. From a timeline perspective, I feel he will join the Kraken’s roster after the NHL Trade Deadline, at which time the team can expand its roster size and he could be carried as the third goalie.
Several fans have asked about trading one of the goalies. Based on contracts and the success of the team, I do not see it as a realistic scenario for any of them to be traded this season.
With the All-Star break coming up, it is a great time to check out some WHL action. The Seattle Thunderbirds are playing excellent hockey and are currently the best team in the Western Conference. During the NHL All-Star break, the T-birds have a home-and-home series with the Everett Silvertips Friday, Feb. 3 and Saturday, Feb. 4, and play again at home against Spokane on Sunday, Feb. 5. The Silvertips also host Red Deer on Sunday, Feb. 5.
Kraken themes for the week ahead
There is a series of interesting games coming up this week for the Kraken. On Wednesday, the Vancouver Canucks will visit Seattle to play their first road game under new head coach Rick Tocchet. Tocchet interviewed with the Kraken to be their first coach, so you can imagine he might have some extra motivation that night. The Kraken are 0-5-1 all time against the Canucks, and Vancouver is one of four teams remaining that Seattle has never beaten in its brief franchise history. Those narratives aside, these are two point that the Kraken, at least on paper, should pick up.
On Friday, the division rival Calgary Flames visit Seattle. The Flames are currently outside the playoff cutoff and will feel some level of desperation to make up ground on Seattle. The Flames are the team I am paying attention to the most right now. They are on the outside of the playoff bubble and badly need points to get back in the race.
The Columbus Blue Jackets visiting Seattle will be an excellent opportunity to pick up some points. The Blue Jackets are dead last in the league with just 30 points in the standings. This will be the last Kraken game before the All-Star break, though, so it feels like a trap.
Kraken health
I expect Burakovsky to be back in the lineup soon but am less optimistic about Schultz and Schwartz. Burakovsky warmed up against Colorado before being scratched, so that would indicate his injury isn’t too severe. Although the team has not released any details on Schultz and Schwartz, they have each missed multiple games. Even if they could play, resting Schultz and Schwartz this week before the All-Star break might be the best play here.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Ryan Donato (SEA) – The injury to Schwartz has allowed Donato to play further up the lineup and he is seizing it. He has three goals in the last two games and is currently on pace for 21 goals on the season.
Clayton Keller (ARI) – There have not been a lot of bright spots for the Coyotes this season, but Keller is one of them. He scored a hat trick against the Golden Knights on Sunday in a 4-1 win. Thanks Clayton.
Vitek Vanecek (NJD) – The “former” Kraken netminder had two wins in two starts and posted a .931 save percentage in those two games last week for the New Jersey Devils. If you do not know the story about Vitek, he was drafted by Seattle in the NHL Expansion Draft, but when the Kraken signed Grubauer in free agency a week later, Vanecek became expendable. The Kraken traded him back to the Capitals for a second-round draft pick.
Goal of the week
The @SeattleKraken prospects connect for the game-winner 🤝
Ty Nelson fools everyone and finds Kyle Jackson behind the net, scoring the go-ahead goal to help lead the @OHLBattalion past the Wolves at home 📽️ pic.twitter.com/8tLC8X4zxe
What should be obvious by now, the Seattle Kraken are the second-most-improved team in the league.
Thanks again for all your engagement and questions on these posts. If you have anything you want me to look into, feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments.
Through games played on Saturday, Jan. 14, the Kraken rank first in the Western Conference and are tied for second overall—behind just Buffalo and tied with Boston—in goals per game with 3.76 per game. Seattle leads the entire NHL in five-on-five scoring with 2.76 goals per game. The next closest team, the New Jersey Devils, has scored just 2.45 per game in these regular manpower situations.
This is astounding for a team not only lacking in high-end star power but also coming off an inaugural season in which it struggled to generate consistent offense. Last season the Kraken tied for 28th in the NHL in goal scoring with just 2.60 goals per game. If I told you before the puck dropped on the 2022-23 regular season that Seattle would be second in overall scoring at the halfway mark, you would have been justified in scoffing.
So how has this happened? We know that many Kraken players are contributing. Seattle has more players with eight or more goals than any other team in the league. And, as we mentioned, we know the team has found a lot of success at even strength.
The Jarny-Burky Problem
But Seattle is not winning by raiding its opponents with shots. Per Evolving Hockey, the Kraken rank 19th overall in total shots on goal per 60 minutes (called “corsi”) and 17th in total unblocked shots on goal per 60 (called “fenwick”).
The team is not generating inordinately dangerous chances either, ranking between 15th and 24th in various “expected goals for” (or “xGF”) models, depending on the source consulted. Expected goals is a metric that ascribes an expected goal probability based on league average performance for each shot the team has taken. (If you’re still lost on the concept of “expected goals,” check out this explainer from Alison Lukan.)
Finally, the team is not dominating with a manpower advantage, converting just 21.1 percent of the time (18th in the league) and tallying just 26 power-play goals overall (tied for 22nd in the league).
This leaves only one explanation for the scoring: The team is shooting the lights out of just about every arena it plays in. And, sure enough, the team’s 12.62 percent shooting percentage is the highest in the league. The next closest team, Buffalo, has an 11.92 percent shooting percentage. The average team in the 2022-23 season is shooting 10.09 percent. Assuming 30 shots on goal in a game, Seattle’s advantage over the average team is the difference between scoring 3.8 goals per game versus 3.0 goals per game.
This is huge. It is the margin between a lot of wins and losses. Last year Seattle scored on just 8.95 percent of the shots it took, and that season ended with just 60 standings points.
What do we make of all of this? It turns out shooting percentage is very prone to “narrative.” “It’s just a handful of lucky bounces,” one might say; “It is not sustainable.” Another could look at the same data point and conclude the team has great shooters; this is a skill and no reason to think it will just disappear.
This is the so called “Jarny-Burky” conundrum John Barr, Darren Brown, and Andy Eide discussed on Episode 222 of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast.
Sure, the Kraken’s offensive success this season has been driven in large part by a much improved shooting percentage. But is it luck? Or is it because the Kraken upgraded their shooting talent? For example, the team replaced career 12.0 percent shooter, Calle Jarnkrok (“Jarny”), with a career 14.4 percent shooter in Andre Burakovsky (“Burky”)—hence, “Jarny-Burky.”
Calle Jarnkrok skating during a 2021-22 Seattle Kraken home game. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Methodology
One way to look at this would be to compare Seattle players’ shooting percentage against their career norms. Through the game on Saturday, Jan. 14, Seattle has scored 158 goals. If I replaced every player’s 2022-23 shooting percentage with their career average shooting percentage, the Kraken would have just 138 goals this season.
This rudimentary approach suggests that the Kraken may be getting quite “lucky” in their results this season, but it does not account for many factors that may explain this difference. For example, scoring and shooting percentages are up across the board in recent seasons. And looking at a player’s relative shooting percentage alone does not account for the relative quality of the player’s chances this year versus the remainder of the player’s career. Is there anything else we can try?
Money Puck has tracked a statistic it calls “shooting talent above average” that is potentially illuminating, even if it too has some limitations. The statistic is compiled by comparing a player’s historical goals scored against the player’s projected “expected goals” for his shots.
If a player—like Alex Ovechkin, for example—is consistently scoring more frequently from areas of the ice than how he is “expected” to perform, one can reasonably surmise that the player is an above-average shooter. The opposite suggests a below-average shooter. Money Puck takes this player-specific historical performance, regresses it, and assigns a talent adjustment to his shots when calculating that individual’s expected goals. This produces what the site calls “shooting talent-adjusted expected goals.”
Shooting Talent Above Average: A player’s ability to score more goals than an average player given the same scoring opportunities. This is based on a player’s historical track record of exceeding their expected goals. A player with a shooting talent above average of 20 percent would have a 12 percent chance of scoring a goal on a shot with expected goal value of 0.1.
Shooting Talent-Adjusted Expected Goals: Expected goals * (1 + Shooting Talent Above Average). This is the number of goals a player is expected to score given their expected goals and their shooting talent.
Per Money Puck, Alex Ovechkin has 29 goals on shots worth 24.3 unadjusted “expected goals.” Has he been lucky? Money Puck suggests the answer is no. Turns out, his “talent-adjusted expected goals” is precisely 29.0. In other words, his shooting is right in line with what we would anticipate him to deliver.
Skill or luck?
Money Puck compiles this data at the player level. But one could then aggregate the data at a team level by gathering it for all players who have taken the ice in 2022-23. Then the task is to interpret how much of the delta between a team’s actual goals scored and xGF is “luck” and how much is “skill.”
To get at the question of how much is attributable to the team’s shooting “skill,” we compare a team’s aggregate expected goals with a team’s aggregate talent-adjusted expected goals. For example, if a team has 140 aggregate expected goals, but 146 aggregate talent-adjusted expected goals, we can conclude that, based on historical performance, this is an above-average shooting team that could be expected to overperform its unadjusted expected goals.
To get at “luck,” we compare the team’s actual goals scored with its talent-adjusted expected goals. If a team has scored 130 goals, but the measure suggests the team’s shots were worth 139 talent-adjusted expected goals, one conclusion might be that the team has been a bit “unlucky.”
Skepticism is warranted
I conducted this study and it returned some very intriguing outcomes. That said, before we proceed, I want to inject a healthy degree of humility and skepticism into the discussion. This approach lends the veneer of precision to this analysis that is not warranted. If a team has 138 goals on 124 expected goals and 128 talent-adjusted expected goals, I don’t think we want to suggest that exactly four of the goals scored above expected were skill-related and 10 were luck-related. Instead, it’s fairer to say, the team is above average at shooting so it could be expected to outperform its unadjusted expected goal totals.
Furthermore, it is fairly presumptuous to call currently unexplained outcomes “luck.” There could be a variety of explanations for why a team outperforms or underperforms its talent-adjusted expected goals, and we’ll return to a few of those at the end of this post.
The findings
With those caveats out of the way, let’s get to it. Looking at “skill” first, through games on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2023, the Kraken generated the fourth largest positive differential between their team expected goals and team talent-adjusted expected goals. The team had generated 129.9 expected goals, but 139.3 talent-adjusted expected goals, a 9.4-goal differential. This shooting talent value added is behind just Tampa Bay (13.1), Washington (11.7), and Pittsburgh (10). In other words, when comparing the shots actually taken by all players in the NHL, Seattle’s players generated the fourth most shooting value over average.
Looking at skill-driven results outside Seattle, St. Louis (8.4) rounds out the top five. The bottom five are San Jose (-3.7), Los Angeles (-2.8), Philadelphia (-2.5), Buffalo (-1.9), and Arizona (-1.6).
(Left to right) Vince Dunn, Daniel Sprong, and Yanni Gourde celebrate a goal. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Looking now beyond skill, the Kraken had the third largest positive differential between their team talent-adjusted expected goals and their actual team goals. The team has 139.3 talent-adjusted expected goals, but 151 actual goals (as of the Jan. 12 games), an 11.8 goal differential. This differential is third in the league behind just Buffalo and Vancouver. This suggests that even when adjusting the value of every team’s shots for the shooting talent of the players on those teams, the Kraken have still over-performed expectations by the third most in the league. This large delta suggests the team has been quite lucky. (Following the Chicago game, I’d expect this gap grew.)
League-wide, Buffalo and Vancouver are at the top, with 17.2 and 16.8 surplus goals above their aggregate talent-adjusted expected goals. Then comes Seattle (11.8) and Los Angeles (11.6) close together. Detroit then rounds out the top five (7.2). At the other end, two teams appear extremely snakebitten in the luck department, Nashville (-31.9) and Ottawa (-29.9). Florida (-23.9), Tampa Bay (-20.3), and Pittsburgh (-20.2) round out the bottom five.
Are the Kraken both lucky and good?
Before concluding, I want to reiterate that there are limitations to the approach described in this article. The Money Puck talent adjustment method will not capture the shooting talent of rookie players since there is no historical track record for comparison. And even if there is a track record, a player’s historical over-performance of his expected goals may not be indicative that the strong scoring is going to continue. It certainly does a better job of accounting for context than our original shooting percentage method, but it’s still imperfect.
That said, I think we can say confidently that the Kraken have been both exceptionally lucky and exceptionally good with their shooting this year. These results confirm our suspicion that at least some of Seattle’s goal scoring success has been the product of good fortune and cannot be expected to continue at this breakneck pace. On the other hand, there is no reason to expect that Seattle will regress to an average shooting team. The skill is there to perform at or near the top of the league in shooting percentage moving forward. (Particularly with the recent addition of Eeli Tolvanen.)
When accounting for shooting talent, Seattle’s xGF ranks 16th in the league according to Money Puck—roughly average. Middle of the league may be a reasonable expectation moving forward. (That said, Money Puck’s unadjusted expected goal model is more pessimistic on the Kraken than most. I’d probably put the Kraken somewhere in the 12-to-16 range in overall scoring moving forward.) If the Kraken want to stay at the top of the league in scoring, they’re likely going to need to do more in other areas, such as improving shot quality or invigorating the power play.
* * *
What do you think? Is Seattle’s offense sustainable over the second half of the season, or should we expect some significant regression?
It is that time of year where we all do some self-reflecting, so I thought it would be a great time to share my top 10 Seattle Kraken events of 2022.
#10 – The 2022 trade deadline
On the surface, the Kraken did not have one specific big trade that overwhelmed fans, but the sum of the parts will set this organization up for a while. With only seven picks in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, the prospect cupboards were empty. By contrast, the Vegas Golden Knights had 12 selections in their first NHL Entry Draft in 2017.
General manager Ron Francis added 10 draft picks scattered across the 2022, 2023, and 2024 drafts, which includes three second-round selections in the 2022 draft. That directly led to the Kraken selecting Jani Nyman, Niklas Kokko, and David Goyette. Time will tell if any of the picks accumulated during the trade deadline will materialize into impactful players, but the more chips you have on the table, the more likely one of them will hit.
#9 – Outreach efforts of the 2022-23 season
The Kraken organization and players have been a lot more visible in the community in the first couple months of the 2022-23 season. It warms my heart to see these players getting out in the community. Part of this is directly related to COVID restrictions the team had to face last season, but another reason is the players and players’ families are feeling more comfortable with the community at large. Expect to see more of this in 2023 and beyond.
Rooted in our community 💙#SeaKraken players are getting out into the community that has supported us since day one & we're excited to continue making a difference. pic.twitter.com/FfgFxnQPHU
The returns on this trade have yet to be realized. Otherwise, I would have it in the top five. Bjorkstrand was acquired on for a third- and a fourth-round pick. That is a steal for a player of Bjorkstrand’s caliber. The Kraken put themselves in an excellent position to use their salary cap space as a weapon. Bjorkstrand only has four goals on the season, shooting just 4.7 percent, but he is much better than his numbers have shown with the Kraken and will eventually breakout.
Wait, wait. What?! Seriously?! Oliver Bjorkstrand, who is much better player overall than Patrik Laine, was traded from the Columbus Blue Jackets to the Seattle Kraken in exchange for 3rd and 4th round draft picks 2023. These are terrible decisions by Columbus in our eyes. pic.twitter.com/2mAtiL4p3y
There are still some haters out there, but Buoy has been an absolute treat to watch at Kraken games. Kids (and dogs) adore him. He has been a great addition to the club, and I will not accept any slander against him.
I mentioned it last week in my Monday Musings, but the health of the team this season has been a big advantage. The roster has been very consistent all year and is a big contributing factor to where the team is in the standings. Only 25 unique players have suited up for the Kraken this season versus 30 unique skaters at this point last season.
#5 – Launch of the Coachella Valley Firebirds
From an overall effort, the launch of the Firebirds should be No. 1. There was so much involved in getting this franchise off the ground, from building Acrisure Arena to signing 20+ players, plus hiring the entire coaching and support staff around the club. The Coachella Valley Firebirds will be one of the main contributors to developing talent for the Kraken, and it was important they do it right. The team is also performing well on the ice with a 19-6-3 record and is currently tied for first place in the Pacific Division in the AHL.
November was an absolute blast to be a Kraken fan, as the boys went 10-1-1 in the month. The record was nice, but they also rattled off impressive wins against the Kings, Rangers, Capitals, and the Golden Knights. It proved they can play with the big dogs in the league. Despite the rough patch they are going through right now, the Kraken are in a good position and will compete for a playoff spot, thanks to their performance in November.
Matty Beniers scores just seven seconds into overtime to give the Kraken seven (!) wins in a row pic.twitter.com/zCLulfHCP4
#3 – Shane Wright slipping to No. 4 overall in the NHL Entry Draft
Even a week before the draft, nobody thought Shane Wright would have dropped to No. 4 in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft. We have heard time and time again, you build your team through the center position, so when Wright was available to Seattle, the Kraken jumped on him. It might not be apparent right now, but the long-term outlook of this franchise being centered by Matty Beniers and Wright bodes well. This could go down as one of those significant moments in the franchise’s history.
Going into the offseason, the Kraken’s top issue to address was goal scoring. The Kraken were 28th in the league in goals scored last season, so they went out and signed one of the top goal scorers available in free agency without mortgaging the future. Burakovsky has always been known as a great shooter that has played in crowded lineups. In Seattle he is averaging the most time-on-ice per game of his career and is on pace to set career bests in goals and points.
After his second season with the Michigan Wolverines, Beniers signed his entry-level contract with the Kraken on April 10 and joined the team immediately. Matty represented hope and the future of this franchise, and when he signed, there was a significant buzz amongst the fans in anticipation.
The Kraken organization and media folks did their best to lower expectations for the 19-year-old rookie by preaching patience, but Matty never got the memo. He scored nine points over his 10 games in the 2021-22 season and has carried that kind of performance into the 2022-23 season. Beniers is currently tied for second in goals on the team and third in points.
If you think I have missed something or have a special Kraken memory you would like to share, please do in the comments section below so we can all enjoy it. Happy New Year, everybody.
Monday Musings is a collection of random thoughts and observations about the last week of activity from the hockey world with an emphasis on the Kraken and other happenings around the Puget Sound hockey community.
Kraken Thoughts
Compete
I do not like to inflate the importance of one game in December, but the Kraken needed that win against Winnipeg on Sunday. There were a lot of things things that compounded to create this need.
First, Seattle had won just one game in its prior six, and in the previous two games the team looked outclassed, despite the one-goal loss against Carolina. Second, it was the Jets that handed the Kraken one of their toughest losses at home one month earlier when the Winnipeg tied the game with six seconds left in regulation and won in overtime. Not to mention the Jets were playing the second night of a back-to-back and the Kraken were facing the Jets’ backup goaltender, David Rittich, for the second time this season.
The Kraken were certainly the better team on the ice Sunday, but that never guarantees victory. In the early stages of the game, it felt like an uphill climb. The boys fell behind twice in the contest, and it was not until five minutes remaining that the Kraken would take their first lead of the game on a Jared McCann snipe. That proved to be the game winner, earning the Kraken a 3-2 result.
On Tuesday last week, the Kraken fell to the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2 in a game that was probably closer than the score indicated. Then on Thursday, the Kraken lost to the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2 in a game that was probably not as close as the score indicated.
The Lightning and the Hurricanes are two of the better teams in the league so there was no need to panic after those losses, but last week I mentioned one of the themes of the week was their compete level against those quality teams. I would have liked to see a bit more fight in the Lightning game, but overall, we knew it could end up being a very difficult road trip.
As tough of a stretch as this has been for the Kraken, they are still well positioned in the Pacific Division. The two teams behind them in the standings, Calgary and Edmonton, have only gained one point each on Seattle over the last ten games.
Shooting percentage
Even before this last week, there was a lot of chatter that this team’s on-ice results have been largely due to a shooting streak that would not be sustainable. Through November, the Kraken had a 13.1 percent shooting percentage, which was tops in the league entering December. A cool off seemed inevitable, especially after the Sharks game (when the Kraken shot 29.6 percent) and the Kings game (30.0 percent) at the end of November.
The cool off certainly happened during this rough patch, but it seems to be stabilizing a bit over the last four games. The Kraken are currently shooting at 11.7 percent. That might feel a little high compared to last season’s 9.0 percent, but this team has better shooters and is creating better chances (i.e. high-danger shots), so around 11 percent feels about right.
Other Kraken musings:
Despite not scoring on three occasions, I felt the power play looked very good Sunday. They had five shots and were moving the puck around well against a Jets penalty kill that is one of the best in the league.
The Kraken earned their 37th point in the standings last night. They did not get their 37th point last season until Feb. 24.
Big congrats to everyone who made the Coachella Valley Firebirds and Acrisure Arena a reality. The Firebirds played their first ever official home game on Sunday after Acrisure Arena opened its doors last week. The Firebirds beat the Tucson Roadrunners 4-3 in an atmosphere that looked awesome.
The Firebirds are now 15-5-3 and sitting in second place in the AHL Pacific Division with three games in hand against the first-place Colorado Eagles.
Jared McCann is on pace for 41 goals. That would be the most goals he has scored in a season since he played for the London Junior Knights U16 team.
I am still worried about the Flames and the Oilers. I check their scores constantly. I’m looking forward to both of those teams visiting Seattle next week, as it should be a good test for the Kraken.
Shane Wright was named captain of Team Canada’s World Junior Championship team. Congrats Shane!
As we projected last week, Kraken prospects Jani Nyman (forward) and Niklas Kokko (goalie) were named to Finland’s World Junior team, which will make the Finland games must-watch hockey.
It is old news now, but all local WHLers made the Canadian team. Thomas Milic (SEA), Kevin Korchinski (SEA), Nolan Allan (SEA), Reid Schaefer (SEA), and Olen Zellweger (EVT) will all represent Canada, and Silvertips coach Dennis Williams will be behind the bench.
If you ever had your reservations about Buoy, let the record show dogs love him and so should you.
The Kraken only have two games this week before the holiday break, facing St. Louis on Tuesday and Vancouver on Thursday. In their franchise history, the Kraken have never beaten either team and are a collective 0-8-1 against these two teams. They have been outscored 39-17 in those nine games. Something must give here, and I say they do it. Winning both games is all I want for Christmas.
Goalies
I would anticipate Martin Jones and Philipp Grubauer split these two games. Both have played relatively well recently but have lacked consistency. Grubauer has to be a huge piece of the Kraken’s success this year, and it would be nice to see him get another quality start either Tuesday or Thursday.
Eeli Tolvanen debut?
Eeli Tolvanen has been scratched in all three games since he was claimed off waivers last week. I am eager to see how he looks with the Kraken and would love to get a glimpse of that wicked shot. The challenge is that the Kraken do not have a slot right now. Daniel Sprong, Ryan Donato, and Morgan Geekie have all firmed up their spots in the lineup. It seems unlikely, but maybe Brandon Tanev sits a game to give Tolvanen a shot? I recognize that could be an unpopular opinion, but how do you sit a guy like Donato, for example, who has scored in three straight games?
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Ryan Donato (SEA) – As I just mentioned, “Donnie” has scored three goals in three games, some of which were more important than others.
Cameron Hughes (CVF) – He scored the first ever goal at Acrisure Arena in the Firebirds’ home opener Sunday.
Mats Zuccarello (MIN) – Zuccarello is riding a 10-game point streak for the Minnesota Wild and has six points in his last two games.
Goal of the week
JORDAN EBERLE ARE YOU FOR REAL?!? 🤯 A spinning + no-look + top shelf backhand and that's just a beautiful thing. pic.twitter.com/qP2fkUh2rw
The Kraken have the lowest faceoff percentage in the league, but that has been steadily improving.
As always, leave any questions or feedback in the comments section, and I will do my best to get back to you. Whatever you celebrate, enjoy your holiday however you see fit.
Monday Musings is a collection of random thoughts and observations about the last week of activity from the hockey world with an emphasis on the Kraken and other happenings around the Puget Sound hockey community.
Kraken thoughts
Keep calm and carry on
Going into Sunday’s matchup against the Florida Panthers last night, the Kraken were on a three-game skid that started with a loss to those same Panthers in Seattle just eight days earlier. Even before this drought, we talked about some warning signs we saw with the wins against San Jose and Los Angeles, so we saw the skid coming.
What struck me in this stretch was the calm around the team. Even with the three straight losses, there never was any panic from the team or the coach. Sure, there was some self-critical comments from Hakstol and some of the players on how they were playing, but a lot of it was centered around getting back to playing the hockey they know they can play.
Even the best teams go through rough patches. Colorado had two streaks of three or more losses last season. Tampa Bay had five three-plus-game losing streaks last season. One win does not mean we are out of the woods of this rough patch, but it certainly eases the mind as the team prepares for two of its toughest opponents of the season with games against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes. Getting two points out of the next two games in any fashion will be a major win.
Kraken claim Tolvanen, waive Kuhlman
The Kraken claimed Eeli Tolvanen on waivers from Nashville today. Having followed the Predators in a different life, I remember the hype around Tolvanen. He is known as a shifty winger with a wicked shot. Tolvanen carries a $1.5 million cap hit for the next two years and is a relatively low-risk pick up for the club right now.
Eeli Tolvanen, claimed by SEA, is a young shot-first winger who hasn't really managed to assert himself offensively at 5v5 yet. Pretty low-event bottom sixer for now, but we'll see if the Kraken can unlock his potential. #SeaKrakenpic.twitter.com/0bTwwdh6gQ
The cost was they needed to create some roster space and that space came in the form of Karson Kuhlman being put on waivers today. Kuhlman had been with the team all season but only played 14 of the Kraken’s 27 games and had one goal and three points to show for it. We love Kuhlman here at Sound Of Hockey, but when a relatively low-risk prospect with upside becomes available, you have to take him. There is also a good opportunity that Kuhlman clears waivers and is assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
Personnel issues on defense
For those that might have missed it, Jamie Oleksiak was assessed a match penalty in the Capitals game on Friday night for an illegal check to the head. The NHL Department of Player Safety then suspended Oleksiak for three games. On Sunday night, Justin Schultz took a dirty hit from Ryan Lomberg late in the game that clearly left Schultz shaken up. He was slow to get up and went down the tunnel to the locker room and did not return for the remaining nine minutes of game play.
Good lord! Just an awful hit by Lomberg on Schultz in retaliation after Schultz had gotten tangled with him seconds earlier.
After having a remarkably consistent lineup for most of the season, the defensive corps could have some holes to fill. To be clear, there has been no official word on Schultz’s status, but I would not be surprised to seem him miss a game or two. In the meantime, the Kraken have recalled Gustav Olofsson to join them in Tampa and likely the rest of the road trip. How long Olofsson will remain with the team will largely depend on the outlook for Schultz.
Penalty kill improvements
There was a stretch of games where the team was giving up a lot of power-play goals. It was a topic of discussion in last week’s Musings. However, I am happy to report that things have turned around for the Kraken penalty kill. Over the last three games, the PK is hovering over a 90-percent kill rate.
Those three games align to Morgan Geekie’s return to the lineup since his injury in Anaheim. Geekie has the second most penalty kill time amongst forwards over the last three Kraken games. He also averaged 50 percent from the faceoff circle in those same three games, which is the highest amongst players that took more than 10 faceoffs. It is safe to say, Seattle missed Geekie.
Other Kraken musings:
In the Friday game against the Kraken, Alexander Ovechkin had a shift during the Jamie Oleksiak five-minute major that lasted 4:57 of game time.
The Kraken’s win Sunday night was the first win against an opponent that was on the second of back-to-back games. They lost the prior two times they played a team in that scenario.
It seemed like it happened forever ago, but Shane Wright scored his first NHL goal last Tuesday against the team that snubbed him at the draft. There was an extra pop from the fans after that one went in. It was nice to feel that energy for Shane.
The day after that game, and as we predicted, Shane Wright was loaned to Team Canada for the World Junior Championship happening at the end of the month.
Speaking of World Juniors, keep an eye on Finland’s roster that is expected to be released this week. I think the Kraken’s second-round draft picks from the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, Jani Nyman (forward) and Niklas Kokko (goalie) have a good shot to be named to the team.
I genuinely love the post-game Davy Jones hat presentation.
Things we love to SEA:
– Matty standing up for his teammates – Matty wearing the Davy Jones hat – Matty saying "way to be a bunch of dogs" pic.twitter.com/reR4IcUekp
The Coachella Valley Firebirds are set to play their first real home game of the season this Sunday at brand new Acrisure Arena, set to open its doors this week.
The lack of home games has not hurt the Firebirds’ performance, as they are sitting in third in the AHL in points percentage with a 12-4-3 record and have points in six straight games.
With Thomas Milic away at Team Canada World Junior camp, Seattle Thunderbirds called on 16-year-old goalie prospect Spencer Michnik on Sunday where he earned the win in his WHL debut.
Speaking of the WHL, the Portland Winterhawks and Seattle Thunderbirds sit one and two in the Western Conference standings. Portland is No. 1 by points, and Seattle is No. 1 on points percentage. The Everett Silvertips are also sitting fourth in the conference and third in the division. The second half of the season in “The Dub” should be fun.
Kraken themes on the week ahead
I am switching up the outlook section of the Monday Musings. Instead of listing out the games on the schedule, I am going to list out themes to keep an eye on in the week ahead. If you have feedback either way, let me know in the comments.
Compete level
Tampa Bay and Carolina provide a benchmark opportunity to size this Kraken team up. I believe they are a playoff team, but they have only played limited games against some of the other top teams across the league. The collective record of teams they have played is 223-205-52 (.464), whereas the collective record of teams they have not played this season is 206-134-43 (.537). Two road games in December will not dictate how good this team really is, but it will be nice to see if they can compete with some of the top teams in the league.
Goaltending plan
I thought coach Dave Hakstol would have gone back to Philipp Grubauer to start against Florida after his stellar performance in defeat against the Capitals on Friday night, but Hasktol instead went back to Martin Jones. It turns out a coach with a lifetime of experience knows better than a random guy with a keyboard. Weird. It will be interesting to see who starts Tuesday against Tampa Bay. I would guess Grubauer will get the start with Jones going Tuesday, but as I just stated, I have been wrong before. Either way, I am interested to see how Hakstol manages the goaltending through this stretch of games.
Winnipeg vengeance
I am looking for redemption the Kraken when they take on the Jets at home Sunday. It feels like ages ago, but Seattle previously played Winnipeg in a heart breaker of a loss for the boys. The Jets tied the game up with six seconds left after a… well, let’s just call it what it was, a stupid penalty by Carson Soucy. The Jets would go on to win it in overtime.
At the time, I was skeptical on how good the Jets are this season, but since then they is 10-4-0 and have quietly climbed to fourth in the league based on point percentage. It is a bit early to be worried about the standings, but I always welcome the opportunity to get a point or two on another team in the conference.
Player Performance / Stick Taps
Kole Lind (SEA/Coachella Valley) – The AHL winger in the Kraken farm system had five points in two games over the weekend including his second hat trick of the season. Lind played 23 games with the Kraken last season. Patrik Laine (CBJ) and Pierre-Luc Dubois (WPG) – both players had seven points for their respective teams over the last week, and for those that do not know, they were traded for each other during the 2020-21 season. William Nylander (TOR) – The Swedish forward had seven points over the last two games including a five-point night against Calgary on Saturday. Eetu Makiniemi (SJS) – In his first start and second NHL game, the Finnish goaltender had his first career NHL win. Like a skater’s first NHL goal, a goaltender’s first win is something special. Congrats Eetu.
With his two points Sunday, Matty Beniers has 14 points over his last 10 games, but he is not the only Kraken that has been hot lately. Here is a view of the top point getters in that stretch.
We have said it before and will probably say it again, the Kraken’s strength is their depth, and that continues to prove out through the season. Everyone has been pitching in during this stretch of games where the Kraken are 7-3-0.
You don’t see that everyday
From the PWHPA all-star game over the weekend
A goalie change on THE FLY complete with a blocker first bump, "Get in there!" pic.twitter.com/2ymUB5WGCN
Monday Musings is a collection of random thoughts and observations about the last week of activity from the hockey world with an emphasis on the Kraken and other happenings around the Puget Sound hockey community.
Kraken thoughts
It was another great week for the Kraken who are now 13-5-3 after three regulation wins in three games this week, all against divisional foes. At times, the games were not pretty, but as coach Dave Hakstol said, “You have to find ways to win.” All three games featured scenarios where the Kraken held two-goal leads, only to see the opposing team each night come back to tie it up before the Kraken would pull away for the victory.
Wednesday night’s home game against the San Jose Sharks was one that people in attendance won’t forget. It was a back-and-forth affair that ended with seven unique goal scorers across eight total goals by the Kraken in an 8-5 win. It was a fun and rowdy atmosphere at Climate Pledge Arena that night, and one would think there were a lot of new faces in the building that night, as people returned home for the holiday.
The two points the team got by beating the Golden Knights on Friday night were technically no bigger than any other Pacific Division game, but that win felt like a bigger deal than others. For starters, the last time the Kraken played the Golden Knights was opening night in Seattle, when the Golden Knights whooped the Kraken 5-2 in arguably the most embarrassing loss of the season.
At the time, that loss cast a premature doubt on the Kraken season with several fans asking if we were in for another long year. Despite knocking off the Rangers and the Kings the prior week, people were still waiting for a benchmark game against one of the elite teams in the league. It was nice to finally beat the Golden Knights, especially on a night where the Kraken looked like the better team on the ice, as opposed to just stealing one from a better team.
The last game of the week against the Anaheim Ducks was an ugly one, but at the end of the night, the Kraken walked away with a regulation win and two more points in the standings. The Kraken grabbed two goals early, but even when it was 2-0, the team looked sloppy at times and gave the Ducks multiple good chances. It was beginning to feel like one of those games where Seattle looked like the better team, but somehow the opposition was going to win. That was not the case, though, as Daniel Sprong scored a goal early in the third and the boys would batten down the hatches the rest of the way to earn a 5-4 Kraken win. It’s better to win ugly than it is to lose pretty.
How good are they?
I received a text from a buddy in Minnesota asking if the Kraken are for real. I responded with the same response I give most people when they ask me about the team. Their strength is their depth, and they have three second lines, one third/fourth line, and a solid blue line. They are a playoff team, and based on their play in November, they have proven they can play with anyone. In an illustration of their balance, the Kraken have 13 players that have three or more goals on the season. That is tied for the most three-plus goal scorers in the NHL.
We still have a long way to go before the playoffs, but if the Kraken continue to bank these standings points, you might as well start saving for playoff tickets. I cannot wait to see what kind of atmosphere we can create for a playoff game at Climate Pledge Arena.
One-goal games
I am paraphrasing a bit here, but last week, a reader brought up some concern about the sustainability of the performance of the team. The reader referenced the fact that the Kraken have won so many one-goal games and that maybe the strong goaltending won’t last all season.
I thought it would be an interesting thing to explore, so I investigated the goal differential a bit. To start, I did not find anything of interest around the one-goal games. Seattle has five one-goal wins and six one-goal losses. 55 percent of the Kraken’s games have been decided by one goal. That is good for fourth in the NHL behind Colorado, Toronto, and Calgary. Last season, Seattle was fourth from the bottom with 33 percent of their games being decided by one goal. When looking at the data from last season and through the early stages of this season, there does not seem to be any indicator that there is a correlation between successful teams and their performance in one-goal games.
One positive I found in the data is that the Kraken have lost more one-goal games than they have won. This is encouraging on two fronts. First, they have a chance to win those one-goal games that they lost and second, their point totals in the standings are not being cropped up by a bunch of one-goal games that they have just squeaked out. By contrast, the New Jersey Devils have won 88 percent of their one-goal games. Could that be a sign that their season to date might be a bit inflated? It is possible but hard to know for sure.
Goalie performance to date
It is obvious that goaltending, specifically Martin Jones, has been a big contributor in Seattle’s team success to date. According to Evolving-Hockey.com, Jones has saved 2.85 goals above expected, which is slightly above average but not the kinds of numbers that would indicate he’s propping this team up on his own. Here is a breakdown of all Kraken goalie performances by game number.
It is not exactly earthshattering to say that the Kraken tend to win games when the goalie plays well. You can say that about every team, but it is nice to see that they have won a few games when the goalie did not play particularly well, specifically Daccord’s start in Calgary (debatable… he made some huge saves that night) and Jones’s start last Wednesday against San Jose.
With Philipp Grubauer coming back from long-term injured reserve, expect a bit of platooning with Jones and Grubauer. The team will need both goalies the rest of the season to be successful.
United States Thanksgiving is generally seen as a milestone that marks the quarter point of the season, where 75 percent of teams in a playoff position end up making the playoffs. It is also an opportunity for the national media types to do a contender/pretender classification of the top teams in the standings. Every analysis I heard or read had the Kraken as pretenders. Good, please keep sleeping on the Kraken.
The Kraken’s win in Vegas was the first win against the Golden Knights in franchise history. It was also the first point they ever obtained in a game against Vegas. There are only three teams that the Kraken have never grabbed a point from before. Can you name them?
The Kraken are 10-1-1 when scoring first this season. They were 15-14-2 in that scenario last season.
One negative for the week is the injury suffered by Morgan Geekie in Sunday night’s game against the Ducks. It was a bit of a fluke play, with Geekie catching teammate Adam Larsson’s shoulder as the Kraken were getting the puck out of the defensive zone. Geekie would not return the rest of the game, and the team has not released a statement on his outlook.
Geekie leads all Seattle Kraken players with three game-winning goals.
Ryan Donato’s goal against San Jose was his first since Oct. 19, and he potted another one Friday against Vegas. Let’s hope he starts to heat up.
Oliver Bjorkstrand also got the monkey off his back with a goal against the Sharks on Wednesday. He had not scored since opening night in Anaheim. It was just a matter of time with Bjorkstand as he has been all over the net lately, and I remember him hitting the post several times over the prior games.
Grubauer is coming back at the right time. Dating back to Wednesday’s game against the Sharks, the Kraken will be playing six games in 11 days. I would imagine the goaltenders trade starts until the Montreal game on Dec. 6.
What was Jamie Oleksiak doing so low in the zone on his goal last Wednesday? Coincidently, he scored from close to that same spot last year, but that one had a bit of different angle.
After going a career high six games without point, Matty Beniers has scored in each of the last four games and has nine points in those four games. He currently leads in points and is second in goals for all rookies this season.
Put me in the camp that wants to see Alex Wennberg shoot a little more. I love Wennberg, but there are times I feel he has some quality chances to shoot but passes to a teammate in a worse position to shoot.
Shane Wright had four goals in three games during his conditioning assignment with the Coachella Firebirds of the AHL. He has two games remaining before he must return to the Kraken.
I have seen a lot of hot takes from national media outlets about Wright’s utilization to date, which usually leaves me seething since it is obvious that none of the outlets have watched the Kraken play this season. When I see a well-researched article from a writer I respect, I love to share it. Highly recommend reading Justin Bourne’s breakdown here.
The Coachella Valley Firebirds have the second highest points percentage in the AHL’s Pacific Division and have yet to play a true home game.
The teams that Seattle has not obtained a point from in franchise history are the Toronto Maple Leafs (0-2-0), Tampa Bay Lightning (0-2-0), and Vancouver Canucks (0-5-0).
Goal of the week
There were a lot of nice goals scored by the Kraken, but I had to choose one. Bjorkstrand’s patience here is a thing of beauty.
Vitek Vanecek (NJD) – The “former” Kraken posted a .943 save percentage with two wins over three games including a Saturday night performance where he saved 37 of 38 shots against the Washington Capitals. Kirill Kaprizov (MIN) – He has seven points over three games with 19 shots on goal. Minnesota is slowly clawing back into playoff position. Andre Burakovsky (SEA) – Burky has six points in six games and currently leads the Kraken with 21 points.
On the docket
Los Angeles Kings – Tuesday, Nov. 29, at Crypto.com Arena
The Kings are still looking for redemption against the Kraken after losing the first two games between the teams this season. This is starting to heat up as a division rivalry with neither team liking the other one. The Kings and the Kraken could be competing for the second and third spots in the division all year.
Kings current record: 12-9-2
Players to watch:
Arthur Kaliyev – The 21-year-old winger is really starting to hit his stride in the NHL with ten points in thirteen games in November. Jaret Anderson-Dolan – The former Spokane Chief had two points on Friday night in a game against the Sharks and has started to get more playing time as of late.
Washington Capitals – Thursday, Dec. 1, at Climate Pledge Arena
You gotta love the Tim Ohashi revenge game. The Capitals have been struggling to get their footing this season as they sit in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division.
Capitals current record: 9-11-3
Players to watch:
TJ Oshie – The Mt. Vernon native and former product of the Seattle Junior Hockey Association did not get to play in the Capitals lone game at Climate Pledge Arena last season. He was someone I often promoted during the NHLtoSeattle campaign and still has a lot of affection for the area. I am looking forward to seeing him play in Seattle on Thursday.
Marcus Johansson – Johansson was a highly resourceful player for the Kraken last year and exceeded expectations for a guy that was signed for a league minimum late into the free agency period. He has five goals over 23 games this season for the Capitals.
Florida Panthers – Saturday, Dec. 3, at Climate Pledge Arena
The Panthers appear to be a sleeping giant in the Atlantic Division, sitting in fifth place right now. They are going to get hot at some point, but let’s hope it does not begin until mid-December. Fun fact, the Panthers have never beaten the Kraken.
Panthers current record: 10-8-3
Matthew Tkachuk – The offseason acquisition leads Florida in points with 27 and nastiness (PIMs) with 37. He is the type of player you love if he is on your team and hate if he is playing against your team. Either way, he is entertaining.
Spencer Knight – There is no guarantee we will see Knight in net, but he is currently outperforming his counterpart Sergei Bobrovsky. Knight is generally thought to be the future of USA goaltending in international tournaments. If the NHL ever returns to the Olympics, Knight is almost a lock to be one of the goaltenders.
Chart of the week
Last year, the Kraken did not get their 29th point until Jan. 23, which is 20 games longer than it took this season.
