The week ahead

What the Kraken can do with their restricted free agents

by Blaiz Grubic | Feb 7, 2024 | Kraken, Kraken Prospects, NHL, Seattle Kraken, Uncategorized

A few weeks back, we reviewed the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents in a two-part series (Part I and Part II). This week, we will be jumping into the Kraken’s three restricted free agents (RFA’s) and reviewing what might be in store for them during the offseason. The Coachella Valley Firebirds also have five additional RFA’s in the Kraken development system. We will focus more on the RFA’s currently playing with Seattle but will also touch briefly on the ones playing for the Firebirds.

There are many rules around RFA’s that complicate contract negotiations. If you need a refresher on the free agency process and steps, Sound Of Hockey‘s own Curtis Isacke wrote a piece on free agency last year for review. The appendix outlines the terms associated with free agency, and there is also a section dedicated to RFA’s.

The Seattle Kraken RFA process is a long one that can last up to 18 months. It technically started back on July 1, 2023, when the players in question first became eligible to sign contract extensions. At the conclusion of the process, the hope for both sides is typically a finalized contract. These negotiations can sometimes drag into the following season, causing a player to miss time, but that is rare.

Here are the high-level steps RFA’s will go through:

• Possibility of contract extension
• Qualifying offers extended
• Arbitration (if the player is eligible; Matty Beniers is the only Kraken RFA that does not have arbitration rights)
• Contract negotiations (short-term bridge or long-term deal?)

The Kraken RFA’s are:

Matty Beniers (Age 21) – Target: Re-sign for two years at $5M AAV

After dazzling as a rookie and capturing the Calder Trophy last season, Beniers has found himself in a sophomore slump season. His scoring pace has dipped by around 40 percent, signaling his value in negotiations has decreased and a bridge deal might be in his future.

While the scoring decline is noticeable, it’s crucial to consider the context. Through 50 games, the Kraken have scored 140 goals, down from the 177 goals they scored in 50 games last season. Beniers’ value also extends beyond pure offense. He’s a skilled two-way center, contributing defensively and driving puck possession. But, he still needs to produce offensively to warrant the massive contract his camp surely wants.

With no extension signed to date, it is questionable if a deal will be done before the offseason. Had Beniers maintained his rookie scoring pace, a maximum-term, eight-year contract would likely be on the table. Given the current scoring slump, a bridge deal (one-to-four years) appears more probable.

Looking at recent bridge deals for young, talented players offers some insight:

• Trevor Zegras: three-year bridge at $5.75M AAV
• Pierre-Luc Dubois: two-year bridge at $5M AAV, followed by a one-year bridge at $6M AAV

Despite the scoring dip, Beniers’ overall value remains high.

• Defensive Prowess: His two-way play adds considerable value beyond the goal sheet.
• Calder Trophy Winner: His past achievements and potential shouldn’t be disregarded.
• Age and Development: At 21, Beniers is still developing and has plenty of room for improvement.

Trade options:

As the franchise’s first-ever draft pick and face of the team, the Kraken are unlikely to trade Beniers. We will not be reviewing trade options.

Prediction:

We anticipate a bridge deal in the two-to-four-year range with $4.5M-$5.5M AAV. This will give Beniers a chance to rediscover his scoring touch and earn a potential eight-year extension while still young.

Eeli Tolvanen (Age 24) – Target: Re-sign for 5 years at $4M AAV

Eeli Tolvanen’s arrival in Seattle via a savvy waiver wire claim has quickly become one of the NHL’s biggest waiver success stories. Now, as the 24-year-old winger approaches the end of his current contract, the Seattle Kraken face a crucial decision: bridge deal or long-term commitment?

Tolvanen’s offensive prowess is undeniable. He’s on pace for a career-high point total this season, showcasing a potent blend of goal-scoring ability and playmaking. His physicality is another asset, leading all Kraken forwards in hits (136), and he is also second in blocked shots (52) through 50 games.

Contract comparables:

• Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes): five years, $4.3M AAV
• Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis Blues): five years, $5M AAV
• Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild): eight years, $5.25M AAV
• Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): five years, $4.5M AAV

Complicating factors:

One wrinkle in the negotiations is Tolvanen’s arbitration eligibility. If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, an independent arbitrator will determine his contract value. This adds an element of uncertainty for both the Kraken and Tolvanen and gives the player more leverage.

Another factor to consider is Tolvanen’s unique skill set. Most of the comparable contracts listed above feature players that contribute on the penalty kill. The Finnish winger primarily thrives on five-on-five as a solid two-way player and brings an accurate shot to the power play.

Trade options:

While trades involving restricted free agents outperforming their current contracts are uncommon, since teams typically hold onto their relatively young talent, some recent deals offer insights into potential return value.

• Artturi Lehkonen – Colorado surrendered a second-round pick and former first-round prospect Justin Barron for Lehkonen in 2022.
• Sam Bennett – Florida sent a package of a second-round pick and former second-round prospect Emil Heineman for Bennett and a sixth-round pick in 2021.

While Tolvanen’s power-play prowess surpasses those of the comparables, it’s unlikely to push his trade value to a first-round pick. A target trade return should be two second-round picks/prospects or better. Despite the potential trade haul, the Kraken will likely prioritize re-signing Tolvanen unless an exceptional offer emerges.

The 2023 Tampa Bay Lightning trade for Tanner Jeannot serves as an example of an offer potentially too good to refuse. Nashville received a first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round draft pick, along with defenseman Cal Foote, for the feisty winger.

Prediction:

Despite the uncertainties, expect the Kraken to prioritize retaining Tolvanen long-term. Jared McCann and Vince Dunn were of similar age when they signed their deals with the Kraken and both will be 30 at the time their contracts come to term. We see the Kraken structuring this deal in a similar way but at a smaller dollar value than the $7.35M AAV deal for Dunn and the $5M AAV deal for McCann.

A five-year deal in the $4M-$4.5M AAV range seems like a reasonable outcome. While a longer-term contract isn’t out of the question, a five-year deal gives Tolvanen more options later in his career.

Kailer Yamamoto (Age 25) – Target: Trade for a fourth-round pick

Don’t let Kailer Yamamoto’s stature fool you. At 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the Seattle Kraken forward might be one of the smallest players in the NHL, but his heart and hustle are oversized. He came to the Kraken via free agency after being traded and then bought out of his last $3.2M contract by Detroit, but he is now a pending RFA with Seattle.

Yamamoto’s tenacity is most evident on the forecheck, where he uses his low center of gravity to hound puck carriers; he is third on the team in takeaways minus giveaways. The Spokane native’s knack for entering the offensive zone with control translates to his high power play usage.

Yamamoto’s versatility adds another layer to his worth, his high career shooting percentage (14.1 percent) allows him to bump up the lineup when needed. Despite his fourth-line designation, Yamamoto’s advanced statistics are strong. He currently leads the Kraken in both Corsi and Fenwick percentage, suggesting that Yamamoto not only generates offense himself, but also elevates the play of his teammates when on the ice.

The Seattle Kraken only deploy Yamamoto about 12 minutes per game and have scratched him from the lineup on several occasions. In researching players to find comparable contracts, the search was narrowed to players that:

• Average under 13 minutes per game.
• Average over 90 seconds of power-play time per game.
• Have under 20 points on the season.
• Have played more than 25 games this season.

Only six players meet this criteria, and they either are playing at or near the league minimum salary or have signed a large deal and are not playing to their contract’s value. Yamamoto doesn’t fit in these categories, so we will not be looking at those comparables.

The small winger is only 25, so he does have one more year where he can play as an RFA. At this point, though, it is apparent the fourth-liner is not going to move the needle enough for the Seattle Kraken and has solidified himself as a depth player.

The winger is arbitration eligible, and a qualifying offer would have to match his current $1.5M AAV. For these reasons, we think it is unlikely the Kraken extend a qualifying offer to Yamamoto. The former Spokane Chief could still sign with the Kraken during free agency, and if that happens, you can expect another one-year deal in the neighborhood of $1M AAV.

Trade options:

The best trade to review is probably his own from Edmonton to Detroit, but there are a couple other options to review too:

• Kailer Yamamoto – Detroit sent the infamous “Future Considerations” to Edmonton in 2023 and also received the signing rights of Klim Kostin.
• Oskar Sundqvist – Detroit acquired a fourth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023
• Rasmus Asplund – Nashville traded a seventh-round pick to Nashville in 2023

The only piece that has changed since Yamamoto’s last trade is his AAV is now $1.5M versus $3.2M when traded in 2023. Factoring in that Yamamoto is still an RFA and the Kraken can retain 50 percent of his contract, a playoff-bound team getting a depth winger with power play experience at a minimal cap hit does have some value. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is in the right range.

Prediction:

If the Kraken remain in the playoff hunt, they will probably hold onto Yamamoto through the end of the season. There are capable right wing fourth-line options in Coachella Valley with Kole Lind, Marian Studenic, and John Hayden available for call-ups, though, so if they get an offer for Yamamoto, the Kraken may be willing to trade him.

Down on the Farm [Moooo!]

Even when I type “Moooo”, I hear it in Sound Of Hockey Podcast host, Darren Brown’s voice. All five of the Coachella Valley Firebird RFA’s are arbitration eligible. This is not as much of a concern as at the NHL level, because most contracts will be two-way deals around league minimum, $775K AAV. All of these players make under $1M, so the qualifying offers will include a five percent increase. We will review each player and assign a “Qualify”, “Trade,” or “Let walk” tag to each player.

Kole Lind – Target: Trade
The 25-year-old winger excels on the offensive side of the game, but his scoring successes have not translated to the NHL yet. Similar to Daniel Sprong, there are questions around his two-way play, which makes him a hard fit for the Kraken. He’s one of those guys that has been right on the cusp of making it in the NHL, though. The Kraken should look to trade the winger and package him with another player.

Ville Petman – Target: Qualify
The Finnish winger was signed to a two-year deal in 2022 after showing promise in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, scoring 39 points in 59 games. Bringing him to the AHL have allowed the Kraken to evaluate how Petman adapts to the North American game and monitor his improvement. The 24-year-old left wing got off to a good start with 28 points in his first AHL season, but he unfortunately has not showed improvement this season. There are still enough positives to award Petman another contract, but don’t expect to see him on the Kraken roster any time soon.

Luke Henman – Target: Let walk
The first player signed to a contract in Kraken franchise history, Henman was never signed to an entry-level deal by Carolina after being drafted in the fourth round in 2018. In his three years in the AHL, his offensive abilities have become stagnant, averaging 0.24 points per game. At 23, Henman still has time to develop, but making the NHL at this point is a going to be an uphill battle.

Marian Studenic – Target: Qualify
Studenic is a hard-forechecking winger with a scoring touch. Listed at 165 pounds, he is on the lighter side but could fill a fourth-line type role. With one year remaining as RFA, we think the Kraken will make him a qualifying offer. Update, it has come to my attention that Studenic will actually be a Group 6 UFA at the end of the season. That means the Kraken would not make a qualifying offer, but rather just re-sign him.

Peetro Seppala – Target: Qualify
Seppala is a left-shot defenseman that is getting good experience in the AHL. The Finn brings a mix of good puck-moving ability and improving offensive numbers in his two years with the Firebirds. He is behind Ryker Evans on the depth chart and still needs to develop his game, though. We think the Kraken will look to retain Seppala’s rights and extend him a qualifying offer.

Group 6 UFA
Sound of Hockey’s own Curtis Isacke pointed out that Kole Lind and Martin Studenic will most likely be Group 6 UFA’s at the end of the season and he is absolutely correct. A full definition of a Group 6 UFA can be found here. A simplified definition is a player that is at least 25 years-old, played at least 3 professional seasons and played less than 80 games at the NHL level.

Overall:

Beniers’ development, Tolvanen’s retention, and Yamamoto’s future all paint a larger picture of Seattle’s commitment to building a contender. Balancing the Kraken’s short-term needs with long-term aspirations, the decisions made this offseason will be interesting to watch. Join the conversation below and let us know how you think the Kraken should handle their RFA’s.