And just like that, the 2022-23 hockey season has all but ended, as the Stanley Cup was awarded this week to the Colorado Avalanche after they knocked off the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning. The Sound Of Hockey Podcast guys recap that fun series and share some of their favorite moments from the Cup celebration to date.
After Cup talk, John, Andy, and Darren shift their focus to Kraken talk, then Hockey Hall of Fame induction talk.
Next, we get a couple quick junior-related updates and an AHL update before segments, which this week include Bad Boys, You Don’t See That Every Day, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
Last week we wrote about the gap in the Seattle Kraken goal differential compared with better teams and illustrated the target goal differential the team would need to hit to become playoff contenders. This week we are going through a goal forecasting exercise to estimate the number of goals on the current roster and what might be needed during free agency.
This is an over-simplified analysis and does not consider a lot of the additional skill sets and factors that would be considered by general manager Ron Francis and team. There are a lot of assumptions and gaps in the process, but directionally, this team clearly needs goal scoring to become contenders, and this sheds some light on how much more it needs.
Goal scoring projections for known or expected players next season
We recognize that the roster can and will change between now and the start of the 2022-23 season, but there are several assumptions we can make about the current rosters, specifically which players we can pencil into the lineup.
Forwards
Assuming there are no major trades or injuries before the season starts, we expect Alex Wennberg, Jaden Schwartz, Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers, Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev, Joonas Donskoi, and Max McCormick to play somewhere in the Kraken organization. Except for McCormick, all are expected to play in the NHL full-time. For now, we are going to also assume that the list of restricted free agents will also remain with the franchise. Those players are Ryan Donato, Daniel Sprong, Kole Lind, Alexander True, Morgan Geekie, and Karson Kuhlman. There is a chance that one or two of those players do not get qualified, which would mean they become unrestricted free agents and likely play somewhere else.
Defense
On defense, Adam Larsson, Carson Soucy, Jamie Oleksiak, Vince Dunn, and Will Borgen are all under contract, while Haydn Fleury, Cale Fleury, and Dennis Cholowski are restricted free agents. For now, we are assuming that all three RFA’s are qualified and will be back with the organization next season.
Player game capacity
Just because they are in the organization does not guarantee they are playing each game. The typical NHL line-up every night is 12 forwards and 6 defensemen. Project that over 82 games and you have 984 forward games and 492 defenseman games. We are going to call that “player game capacity.”
Forecasting the lineup
To keep this very simple, we are forecasting the number of games each player plays by looking at his utilization and assessment of his play in 2021-22. The number of games that the players actually play will obviously vary from the forecast, but we feel this is a good starting point that will balance out across the team.
Here is a look at the forwards:
Assumption Notes:
Schwartz and Tanev are estimated at 75 percent of games because they are coming back from injuries that might be nagging or create some level of uncertainty.
Geekie and Donskoi are estimated at 75 percent because they were healthy scratched a few times last year. Both could end up playing over 90 percent of the games but for now we are sticking with the 75 percent.
The forecast total of the current roster is not at the full 984 player game capacity because we anticipate the signing of two skilled forwards during free agency that are expected to play in 90 percent of the games.
Here is a look at the defense:
Assumption Notes:
We are confident that Larsson, Soucy, Oleksiak, and Dunn will be in the lineup every night if healthy. After that we become less confident in how much others will play.
Cale Fleury had an excellent season in the AHL and could draw into more than 20 games this season, but for now, we are expecting him to weave in and out of the lineup.
We are forecasting one defenseman signing in free agency. If the team does not sign a defenseman during free agency, we are reasonably confident that the bottom four defensemen listed can play more regularly next season.
Forecast the goal scoring
With the intent of keeping it simple, we are going to forecast goal scoring at the same rate the players had during the NHL 2021-22 season. We acknowledge this will not be accurate, but on the aggregate, we think this is a fair and reasonable starting point.
Here is a look at the forwards:
Assumption Notes:
Brandon Tanev’s goal scoring pace in 2021-22 was well above expected before he got hurt, so there could be a regression in his goal production per game. His 14.4 goals could be a little high.
Morgan Geekie is someone we expect to take a step forward this season. His 5.9 goals feels a little low.
Joonas Donskoi struggled to find the net last year and estimating his goal forecast on last year’s production rate yields an extremely low estimate.
Here is a look at the defensemen:
Assumption Notes:
Dunn should benefit from a full year on the team’s top power play unit. A spot there opened after the 2021-22 trade deadline move that sent Mark Giordano to Toronto. This should help his scoring opportunities and production.
We expect a moderate increase from Jamie Oleksiak next season, but for now, we are leaving it at zero goals based on his 2021-22 pace.
Putting it all together
In our last post we mentioned the target for becoming playoff contenders is to have a negative five adjusted goal differential. We mentioned that we are assuming a slight and reasonable improvement of 10 fewer goals allowed on the season from the Seattle Kraken goalies. This is based on expected regressions to Grubauer’s traditional numbers and his play down the stretch of last season. Such an improvement would put the estimated goals against at 248. Based on the exercise in this post, we are forecasting 197.4 goals from the current rostered players. That leaves us with a current goal differential of -50.6 goals and a gap of 45.6 goals to reach the negative five goal target.
If the Kraken intend to be aggressive in free agency to become a contender, there are plenty of candidates on the market that can help close that gap to become contenders. We estimate that the Kraken could sign at least two skilled forwards and one skilled defenseman during free agency.
In the next post we will breakdown the potential free agent targets and the likelihood they could sign in Seattle.
The Stanley Cup Final is over, and the Colorado Avalanche are the champions. Now, teams across the league will look to find the next Cale Makar, as their focus turns to the 2022 NHL Draft. The draft kicks off on July 7, just nine days from this posting. The opening of NHL free agency will certainly receive more attention, but there is no more important event for the Seattle Kraken this offseason than the draft. To help you contextualize the selections on draft day, we’ve come up with the inaugural Sound Of Hockey composite draft rankings big board.
Important note on using the Sound Of Hockey Big Board: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 3, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Focusing on the draft
The Kraken could not replicate the inaugural season sizzle delivered by the Vegas Golden Knights. Thus, whether by design or necessity, Seattle must now build from the ground up. This starts with the draft.
Fortunately, the Kraken made up for a lack of deals off the hop by making a slew of trades at the NHL Trade Deadline. As a result, they are well positioned to make noise at the draft. Seattle has 12 picks overall, including six in the top 68, and 10 of the top 132.
While it is certainly possible the Kraken won’t use all of these picks, this abundance of draft capital means the Kraken can reasonably expect to walk away with approximately three future NHL contributors.
Furthermore, the abundance of picks in the 30’s-60’s might very well play into a strength of Ron Francis-managed front offices in identifying undervalued second-tier talent.
Ron Francis’s draft picks versus the NHL average; visualization by NHLtoSeattle
Introducing the 2022 NHL Draft compositebig board
The Sound Of Hockey composite draft rankings big board lists 675 potential draft prospects. For each of these prospects, we compiled basic player data from Elite Prospects and the NHL Draft combine, mostly via Mark Scheig, including:
draft year club team and league;
position;
handedness;
birthdate and age;
reported height and weight;
NHL Combine measured height, weight, and wingspan (if available), and
draft year club team games played, goals, assists, points, penalty minutes, goals against average, and/or save percentage
Additionally, we pored over many public draft guides and rankings, compiled the lists, and built a composite big board of top prospects in the 2022 NHL Draft class. The goal was to assemble a list reflecting the “consensus” or “average” view of the draft-eligible players.
We did this by taking a weighted geomean of reputable, public, “final” postseason prospect rankings. 331 prospects were listed in one or more of the draft publications we consulted and therefore are “ranked” on our board. The remaining prospects are all ranked tied-332nd.
The full draft board is in a Google Sheets document here. Here is a summary of the ranked results:
Building the board
After gathering basic player data, we ranked the players using the following sources:
Corey Pronman of The Athletic (link) ($$): 127 ranked prospects
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (link) ($$): 100 ranked prospects
Chris Peters of Daily Faceoff (link): 100 ranked prospects
If you have recommendations for other strong sources to use in future iterations of the draft board, drop us a line on Twitter or in the comments below.
As noted above, after gathering this information, we then took the “weighted” geomean of these ranks. Why did we use geomean? Read up here.
Weights were assigned based on our assessment of the depth of experience, sourced reporting, and/or scouting insight factored in. For example, the rank assigned by the Elite Prospects staff was emphasized the most heavily in the calculation, followed by McKeen’s, and so forth. There was no “magic” to these weights. It was a subjective assessment. Perhaps in future iterations we will crowdsource these weights or develop a system based on the accuracy of a forecaster’s projections from previous years. (Also note that the big board includes an “unweighted” geomean rank.)
If you click through to the full composite draft board, you will see that many of the individual rankings are blacked out beyond the top handful of rankings. This is because those rankings are behind a paywall. To get to Corey Pronman’s full list of 127 prospects, for example, a subscription to The Athletic is required. While we utilized all of the individual rankings listed above to develop our composite list, to encourage support for these paid resources, we will not be sharing subscriber-only individual rankings in the public version of the composite big board.
Finally, it bears emphasis that the composite big board does not reflect our view on these prospects. We’ve read reports, watched some videos, and crunched a few numbers. Andy Eide has profiled several prospects and has come up with a few draft-day targets. I’ll be putting up a few thoughts of my own. But we’re not scouts. The big board is simply a tabulation of the rankings of others. A player’s ranking has nothing to do with whether any of us “like” the player or not.
Utility of a composite draft board
Why attempt this project rather than simply follow the “best” public scouting service you can find? To be honest, the latter approach is in many ways preferable. A consensus board cannot explain why one prospect is ranked higher than another, and it certainly cannot displace the work of scouts or reporters.
But a composite board can provide some added information. Think of it as the cherry on top of the sundae, not the sundae itself.
How so? 2022 NHL Draft prospect Brad Lambert is an instructive case. He has long been an elite tools projection, but his production has underwhelmed as he moved around club teams in Finland. Some are still willing to bet on the latent upside. The Hockey News draft analyst Tony Ferrari has Lambert fifth on his board, as does Smaht Scouting. So, he’s a high first-round pick, right?
Perhaps not: Some see Lambert as a player trending in the wrong direction. Respected TSN draft analyst Craig Button lists Lambert as unworthy of any first-round pick, much less a high first-round pick, ranking Lambert at No. 42. Others list him on the first-round bubble.
Our composite approach looks to exploit the wisdom of the crowd of public analysts and places Lambert at No. 14. This ranking may blend the upside and risk Lambert presents and situate him in a “fair” or “expected” position. Perhaps Ferrari or Button are ultimately right, but it may not be wise for an NHL team to bet on either extreme when faced with such uncertainty.
Seattle connections
Four Seattle Thunderbirds made the big board. Defenseman Kevin Korchinski checks in at No. 13 overall. Forwards Reid Schaefer and Jordan Gustafson rank No. 52 and No. 66, respectively. And, perhaps most gratifying of all after his remarkable playoff run, goalie Thomas Milic made the board at No. 176. Milic has a chance to get drafted after being passed over a year ago.
Final thoughts
With that introduction, here again is a link to the composite 2022 NHL Draft big board. Bookmark it, share it, and consult it between now and the draft. We’ll return before the draft with some opinions on big board value targets, and with some mock draft predictions.
*Post edited on June 28, 2022 (1:00 pm PT) after adding Bob McKenzie’s ranking to the big board.*
*Post edited on June 29, 2022 (7:45 pm PT) after adding Scouching analytics rankings to the Big Board.*
*Post edited on July 1, 2022 (1:15 pm PT) after adding FC Hockey, Dobber Prospects, The Hockey Writers (Baracchini), and Bleacher Report rankings to the Big Board.*
*Post edited on July 4, 2022 (9:30 am PT) after adding The Hockey Writers (Zator) and Recruit Prospects rankings to the Big Board.*
It’s a fun episode this week with a fun guest. On Episode 193, the Sound Of Hockey Podcast welcomes Dave Tomlinson, radio color commentator for the Seattle Kraken. Dave is fresh off of grinding out 30 games in 14 days at the IIHF World Championship, so John, Andy, and Darren ask about that experience before diving into Dave’s long and winding road as a professional player and eventually a broadcaster.
Aside from the interview with Dave, the guys also discuss the news that Dan Bylsma was hired as the first coach of the Coachella Valley Firebirds and share some additional Kraken-related tidbits before updating you on the Stanley Cup Final.
After the interview with Dave, the guys shift to segments, which this week include Let’s Get Quizzical, Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week.
General manager Ron Francis has made it clear that the goal of the Seattle Kraken is to make the playoffs in 2022-23, which might seem like a stretch goal coming from a team that just finished fourth from last place in the NHL standings. The team will need to be aggressive this offseason to even be taken seriously in its quest to contend.
To explore what it will take to get into contention next year, we will be putting together a three-part series on how that could happen. The scenarios presented will be full of assumptions with imperfect data and incomplete analysis, but at its core, this will be a thought exercise that will help evaluate the offseason moves needed to make the Kraken a potential playoff team.
Evaluating the gap
The NHL’s point system, with one point awarded for overtime and shootout losses, makes things a little complicated, but effectively, teams must win more than they lose to make the playoffs. To do that, they need to score more goals than their opponents. Therefore, we will be using goals as our primary metric here, rather than standings points.
One challenge to consider when using goals, in NHL team statistics, a shootout win or loss will add a goal for or against respectively. Along with empty-net goals, these would overstate or understate a team’s goals with respect to this analysis, so keep that in mind. We were able to adjust the totals to remove empty-net and shootout goals, but those bonus goals awarded for shootout wins will remain.
To set the stage, let us look at the last 10 full seasons’ adjusted goals for and adjusted goals against to see how teams fared.
In the chart, the diagonal line represents when the goals for equals the goals against. This would be a goal differential (goals for minus goals against) of zero. If the team’s goal differential is positive (above the line), then the team has good chance of making the playoffs.
The picture is clearer if we just focus on the teams that qualify for the playoffs and those that do not, based on goal differential “buckets.”
Based on the data, a negative five goal differential is where teams have roughly a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs.
Kraken goal differential gap for contending in 2022-23
During the 2021-22 season the Kraken had a negative 59 adjusted goal differential. Assuming the negative five goal differential is the target for putting themselves in a solid position to qualify for the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, then they will need to eliminate a 54-goal gap. There are many ways this can be accomplished, but for this exercise we are going to keep it simple and focus on goaltending and goal scoring.
Goaltending must be better
According to Evolving-Hockey.com, the Kraken goaltending had a “Goals Saved Above Expected” (GSAx) of negative 41.3.
The math behind these numbers can be a bit complicated, but let’s put it in simple terms: If the Kraken received just average goaltending from their goaltenders, they would have allowed 41 fewer goals in the 2021-22 season. Expecting exeptional goaltending next season might be wishful thinking, but the goaltending tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger gave us reason for optimism by both playing their best hockey of the season down the stretch.
Expecting a major improvement to goaltending took a hit when the team announced that Driedger underwent surgery for a torn ACL with an expected timeline to return of seven-to-nine months. For now, we are going to assume a reasonable 10 GSAx improvement to next year’s goaltending.
Part two
This gives you the framework of the analysis that we intend to do here. In the next installment in the series, we will focus on goal scoring projections for the current Seattle Kraken players and where the team might be able to add personnel to address gaps in becoming a contender.
Eyebrows were raised around the hockey world when the Seattle Kraken announced in Aug., 2021, that Dan Bylsma was joining the organization and would serve as assistant coach for the Charlotte Checkers. The news immediately got some wheels turning—at least here at Sound Of Hockey—that perhaps Bylsma could be putting himself in line to become the first head coach of the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
Lo and behold, some 10 months later, the Firebirds and Kraken officially announced on Tuesday that Bylsma will be handed the reins.
The Coachella Valley @Firebirds have named Dan Bylsma as the first-ever Head Coach in franchise history!
At the time he joined Charlotte, it was a bit surprising that Bylsma, who won a Stanley Cup as the head coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2008-09, would take an AHL assistant role. It seemed like a step back for the former NHL coach, but in retrospect, it was plain to see how he was positioning himself.
“Talking to [Kraken general manager Ron Francis] last season about the opportunity to coach in Charlotte, [Coachella Valley] was on my mind,” Bylsma said Tuesday. “We needed a coach for the development of players in Charlotte last season, but I knew down the road that we’d be going to Coachella, and that would be there.”
Bylsma’s foresight and gamble on himself paid off.
An impressive coaching resume
Bylsma boasts an impressive resume. After a 12-year pro playing career that included 429 NHL games with the Los Angeles Kings and Anaheim Mighty Ducks, he went right into coaching as an assistant for the AHL’s Cincinnati Mighty Ducks. During the 2008-09 season, Bylsma was promoted mid-season from head coach of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins to head coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins, replacing the fired Michel Therrien. The NHL Penguins responded well to Bylsma, and he led them to their first Stanley Cup since 1992.
The Grand Haven, Mich., native won the Jack Adams Award in 2010-11, coached Team USA at the Sochi Olympics in 2014, and was the fastest coach ever to reach 250 career NHL wins.
In June, 2014, he was relieved of his duties by the Penguins and eventually signed on as the head coach of the Buffalo Sabres starting in 2015. He lasted two seasons there before returning to his hometown Detroit Red Wings, where he was an assistant coach for three seasons before joining the Kraken organization.
Coachella Valley Firebirds coach Bylsma will focus on development
Now back in the AHL, Bylsma knows the focus is on helping young players reach their potential. “A huge responsibility in the organization for the Seattle Kraken is the development of the players and development of the young players coming into the organization,” he said. “Getting an opportunity to do that as a head coach in the American Hockey League is something I take a great deal of pride in, and I’m excited about that opportunity to do it.”
Bylsma has already been working with young Kraken players in Charlotte, where he guided prospects like Alexander True, Cale Fleury, and Max McCormick, three players he thinks are close to being full-timers in the NHL. Getting those types of players over the hump and onto the next level now falls more squarely on Bylsma’s shoulders, but he is ready for the challenge and has been in this position before.
“I think when we look at it from an organization standpoint, it’s such a critical part of the process for us,” added Francis. “We draft these young men, and we ask them to go and play in the American Hockey League, and we try and draft and develop them to get to the NHL. So having a guy with that sort of pedigree—he’s coached at all levels, AHL, NHL, World Championships, he’s won a Stanley Cup, he’s been coach of the year in the NHL—we feel very fortunate we have somebody like Dan to lead that charge and help the development of our young players.”
Plenty of work left to be done in building the Coachella Valley Firebirds
When the inaugural Kraken season ended, Francis went through a laundry list of AHL-related projects ahead of him for this offseason, as he is now tasked with building out the Firebirds from scratch. Deciding on a head coach was one of those items, but that was just the start.
“I would say [the list of responsibilities] is slightly shorter, but it’s still a long list,” Francis said. Some hires left to be made include an athletic trainer, assistant coaches, goalie coaches at both the NHL and AHL levels, a video coach, a skills coach, and—oh, by the way—almost a full roster of players.
Adding one more wrinkle to what will surely be a challenging first season for Coachella Valley, their home venue, Acrisure Arena, will not open until at least December, and their practice facility will not open until at least mid-October.
So, Francis said the AHL team would start the season in Seattle and “play some games up in this area,” making the Kraken Community Iceplex the home base for the Firebirds initially. They will then transition to Coachella Valley when their practice arena opens.
There are plenty of questions left to answer before the Coachella Valley Firebirds can take flight. For now, with Bylsma as the team’s first head coach, one big question has been resolved.
On this week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast, the guys give a couple quick Seattle Kraken updates, revolving around the signing of Finnish free agent Ville Petman and the re-signing of Jeremy Lauzon with the Nashville Predators. They then shift their focus to junior hockey, where they discuss the Seattle Thunderbirds falling just short against the Edmonton Oil Kings and Kraken prospect Ryan Winterton reaching the Memorial Cup.
Eventually, John, Andy, and Darren circle back around to NHL talk, discussing the opening of the Stanley Cup Final, Bruce Cassidy and John Tortorella getting hired by NHL teams, and Gary Bettman’s latest presser.
Segments this week include Bad Boys, Weekly One-Timers, Tweets of the Week, and Three Stars.
On this week’s Sound Of Hockey Podcast, the guys give a couple quick Seattle Kraken updates, revolving around the signing of Finnish free agent Ville Petman and the re-signing of Jeremy Lauzon with the Nashville Predators. They then shift their focus to junior hockey, where they discuss the Seattle Thunderbirds falling just short against the Edmonton Oil Kings and Kraken prospect Ryan Winterton reaching the Memorial Cup.
Eventually, John, Andy, and Darren circle back around to NHL talk, discussing the opening of the Stanley Cup Final, Bruce Cassidy and John Tortorella getting hired by NHL teams, and Gary Bettman’s latest presser.
Segments this week include Bad Boys, Weekly One-Timers, Tweets of the Week, and Three Stars.
It feels SO GOOD to be back! It’s been a long time since we’ve put pen to paper for the purpose of giving you one-timers of the weekly variety, but here we are, ready to serve up some bite-sized hockey news for you.
As is tradition in Weekly One-Timers, we shall start with some Kraken and other local news, then expand the sphere of information to include the whole hockey world. Let’s dig into it, shall we?
Kraken news… sort of
Jeremy Lauzon re-signs
Technically this isn’t Kraken news, but it is at least Kraken related. Former Seattle defenseman Jeremy Lauzon re-signed with the Nashville Predators for four years at a $2 million annual salary.
Due to injury, Lauzon only ended up playing 13 games with the Preds after being traded by the Kraken at the NHL Trade Deadline for a second-round pick in the upcoming draft. He had one goal and zero assists in that time with 14 penalty minutes.
It was not the most impressive stat line, so we were a tad surprised to see the four-year term given by general manager David Poile. Perhaps he heard people saying a second-round pick for Lauzon was too much and felt he needed to prove it was a good trade. Or perhaps he just really likes the player and wants to keep him around for a while.
Either way, we’re happy to see Lauzon get a nice payday.
Ryan Winterton headed to the Memorial Cup
Ryan Winterton, selected by the Kraken in the third round of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, is headed to the CHL’s Memorial Cup after his Hamilton Bulldogs knocked off the Windsor Spitfires in Game 7 of the OHL Championship Series.
Winterton helped the Bulldogs with 19 points (7-12—19) in 18 playoff games, a nice follow-up to a regular season in which he returned from a long-term injury to rack up 46 points (20-26—46) in 37 games.
The Bulldogs celebrated their berth in the Memorial Cup by pounding a giant nail into a table using a sledgehammer.
The Seattle Thunderbirds encountered adversity through seemingly every step of their journey this season, but they just kept winning, even as the odds stacked up against them. They battled through injuries, COVID issues, and ill-timed suspensions. After cruising past Kelowna in the first round, the T-Birds faced elimination games against Portland and Kamloops, only to force Game 7’s in both series and keep themselves alive.
But the high-flying Edmonton Oil Kings, with their aggressive forecheck and star-studded lineup of future NHLers, ultimately proved to be too much in the end.
After winning Game 1 of the WHL Championship Series in Edmonton, the T-Birds lost the next three straight, including their only two home games of the series. Again on the brink of elimination, they battled back for a road win in Game 5, but finally succumbed with a 2-0 defeat in Game 6.
We attended several games of the playoffs, including both of the home games in the Championship Series, and we have to mention what an absolute treat it was to get to witness high-level hockey that deep in a postseason, and seemingly in the middle of the summer. It was such a blast to be a part of that, and we hope the kids on that T-Birds roster will remain very proud of what they accomplished this season.
Congratulations to the Oil Kings (begrudgingly), and congratulations to the Thunderbirds.
Stanley Cup Final underway
We don’t have much to share on this topic that you don’t know already, but the Avalanche and Lightning have finally linked up for a postseason showdown, a matchup that has felt like destiny for several years now.
The two perennially elite teams got off to a rip-roaring start on Thursday, with the Avs eking out a 4-3 overtime victory after the Bolts had erased a two-goal deficit.
This has the makings of an all-time great Stanley Cup Final, and the fans seem to be enjoying it so far.
The NHL coaching carousel kicked it into high gear this week. In a spring/early summer in which some well-respected coaches around the league found themselves without jobs when their teams were dispatched, it’s no surprise to see some big hires being made.
Bruce Cassidy was hired by the Vegas Golden Knights after just a few days of unemployment, and our old buddy John Tortorella has Re: Torted himself back into coaching by getting hired by the Philadelphia Flyers.
Interestingly, Barry Trotz remains without a job, though we can’t help wondering if he has quietly passed on at least one opportunity. Trotz has been tied to the Winnipeg Jets lately, and the Winnipeg Sun reports he will be in talks with them again this weekend.
Last week, we shared analysis on the 20 percent increase in USA Hockey player memberships over last season. This week, we are looking into the numbers reported on female memberships to evaluate the growth (or decline) of female participation in USA Hockey.
Before the pandemic, female participation had been on a steady increase over the previous 10 years, averaging around a 5 percent annual increase from 2013-14 to 2019-20. Like in all sports, the pandemic severely impacted female participation in a good chunk of 2020 and 2021.
Here is how the female participation numbers have looked since 2012-13.
Like the trends we reported last week, female memberships are also seeing a huge recovery with an increase of 25 percent season over season. One of the storylines for the “all players” numbers reported by USA Hockey was that memberships are up significantly but have yet to return to the pre-pandemic numbers of 2019-20 season. This is not the case with female memberships, as they are up more than 5 percent compared to the 2019-20 season, an all-time high.
State-by-state USA Hockey female memberships
When we break it down by state, we see some relatively consistent numbers compared to the overall numbers we analyzed last week. Massachusetts, California, New York, Michigan, and Minnesota added the most memberships since last season. They were all some of the most severely hit during the pandemic-impacted season in 2021-22.
In terms of percentages, the top states for growth among female participants are consistent with the total membership reported. Here is a look at the top 10 states by percentage change.
This consistency makes sense, since if a state is recovering, it would be likely that all people are returning to hockey at the same rate.
Female hockey in Washington State
In Washington State, female hockey memberships are up 87 percent from last year, and what might be more impressive is that memberships are up 20 percent compared to 2019-20. This is more than just a recovery from the pandemic-impacted season of 2020-21.
These are really encouraging trends for female hockey players in Washington State. The more players there are, the more opportunities this will provide for girls to play at an older age, as participation has tended to wane in the older age groups. If you can grow the game at a young age, there will be more players at the older age groups, even if the retention rate stays the same. Here is a breakdown of the players by age group and percentage growth of each category.
Again, the reasons for the growth in girls and women’s hockey is the same as it was for all members: 1) return from pandemic-impacted season. 2) Kraken emphasis on the Adult Learn to Play, NHL Learn to Play and Sealeague programming at Kraken Community Iceplex.
The growth in girls and women’s hockey in the area is encouraging, as even more growth is expected in the coming years. Next year the Seattle Kraken will be adding girls-only teams in the 8U, 10U, and 12U age groups, and the Kraken will inspire plenty of youth and adults to give hockey a try.
